New Poll Shows Narrow Gap Decreasing Between Trump, Biden

By Jason Hall

April 15, 2024

Photo: Getty Images

Former President Donald Trump's early polling advantage over President Joe Biden has decreased significantly, according to a New York Times/Sienna College poll released on Saturday (April 13).

Trump, 77, who previously had a four-point lead over Biden, 81, in an earlier version of the poll released in February, now leads by a 47% to 46% margin. The recent increase of reported support for Biden likely indicates more solid support among the Democratic base, with the previous poll showing that only 85% of Biden's 2020 voters said they would re-elect him, which increased to 90% in the updated poll.

Respondents still expressed frustration regarding Biden's re-election campaign with his disapproval rating remaining at 47% in the latest poll. The reported narrow gap between the two candidates reflects several recent polls that have shown close margins.

Earlier this month, a poll conducted by local news outlet KSTP through SurveyUSA reported that Biden and Trump were locked in a statistical dead heat in Minnesota, a long suspected blue state, with Biden leading 44% to 42% in the survey, which is reported to have "a credibility interval, similar to margin of error, of 4.9%." also reported that new polls suggested a massive electoral realignment with Trump having a significant increase in support among younger voters than the 2020 presidential election while Biden was stronger among senior voters than he was four years ago.

The NPR/PBS Newshour Marist College poll released earlier this month reported that Trump had a two-point advantage among Millennial and Gen-Z voters, while Biden held an overall lead among voters 45 years and older. A FOX News poll released last month also reported that Trump had an 18-point lead over Biden among voters under 30 and by 21 points with independent and third-party candidates included.

Trump was also reported to be leading Biden in the swing states Michigan, Pennsylvania and Georgia by a margin between one and three percentage points, as well as North Carolina, Arizona and Nevada by more than the margin of error of a Wall Street Journal survey released last week. The two candidates are also reportedly tied in Wisconsin, which Biden had previously won by a margin of 0.6% in the 2020 election.

The seven key swing states account for 93 of the 270 electoral college votes needed to be elected as president. A majority of respondents also said Trump was the better candidate to handle the economy (54%) and border security (52%), as well as 48% claiming Trump had the requisite mental and physical capabilities, compared to 28% favoring Biden's "mental and physical fitness needed to be president," according to the Wall Street Journal.

Last month, Trump was reported to have a slight edge over Biden in the first USA TODAY poll released after both officially secured their respective parties' nominations. Trump reportedly held a 40% to 38% advantage among respondents who were asked whom they would vote for if the presidential election were held today.

Additionally, one in four respondents said they could possibly change their minds about their current choice once the election takes place in November, which includes 14% of current Biden voters and 15% of current Trump voters. Biden did, however, see an increase in Americans reporting green shoots in the economy, which was the most positive assessment since the beginning of his presidency.

In February, Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey found that Trump had a 46% to 44% advantage over Biden among Michigan voters in a potential 2024 presidential matchup, with 10% voting undecided. Biden did, however, gain momentum with a 3% increase from the previous Michigan 2024 head-to-head potential presidential poll conducted in January.

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