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October 18, 2018 16 mins

On today's "Best of" of Straight Outta Vegas, RJ Bell and the crew dive straight into LeBron's debut in purple and gold, and Fezz worries that his early bet on the Lakers exceeding their season win total could be in jeopardy with Luke Walton saying they will manage his minutes. The guys give their trends of the week from the NFL that you NEED to know before you lay your bets. Plus they square off crossfire style over the Michigan vs Michigan State game!

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Episode Transcript

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Speaker 1 (00:01):
You're listening to Fox Sports Rado. We start in the
NBA today here on straight out of Vegas where the
Lakers are at the Portland Trailblazers coming up later on tonight.
It is Portland's a three point favorite right now. But
the story of this game is the debut of Lebron
James as an l a Laker. What is the Vegas

(00:22):
perspective r J on Lebron and the Lakers, Well, one,
they're the fourth favorite to win the title. Lakers are
the fourth favorite to win the title, behind only Golden State, Houston,
and Boston twelve to one. So a lot of optimism.

(00:42):
I think you got to know about the future battings
market to win a title, in this case the NBA title.
A lot of casual batters. I think about in baseball,
the Chicago Cubs fans come to Vegas, put twenty bucks
in the Cubs to win the World Series, go home,
showed at the bar, and such. There's a lot of

(01:04):
that in the future betting for titles. So it's not sharp.
It's more Joe's than the pros. With the pros beat
before an NBA season is season win totals and what
does that mean, it means there's eighty two games in
the regular season. How many of those games ward team win?

(01:27):
Lakers the win total forty eight wins. Now, think about
that Lebron last year apparently played uh you know, with
a bad team. I mean, if you look at the
supporting cast on the Calves last year, some people would
make the case it was the worst supporting cast Lebron

(01:48):
had had in a decade. Fez, NFLS, you're specialty NBA's
right behind, would you. I don't even think it's a
debate that the supporting cast for the Lakers are significantly
better than last year's supporting cast with the Calves. Agree, Oh,
no question, r J up to six point difference. Yeah,

(02:10):
so if those two teams played in a time machine
without Lebron, Lakers would be about a six point favor
So wait, it was fifty wins last year with that
inferior supporting cast in Cleveland. Now with a superior supporting
casting l A, it's only forty eight. So my thought was, wow,

(02:32):
I like the over just to create just a little
context on that forty eight number. Who's ahead of him?
You've got Gold State, Houston, Boston, same teams ahead of
him in the title wards, but additionally Toronto with more
season wins projected, Philadelphia and Utah, Utah, Are you kidding me? Utah?

(02:55):
I mean that showing the pros are not really respecting Lebron.
By the way, there's actually three other teams tied with
the Lakers, So the Joes are saying, oh, Lakers got
a chance, he's Lebron. The pros are saying, I don't
know Lebron's Lebron, but we've downgraded him. And to me Jonas,

(03:18):
there was one question that was driving if I was
gonna bet the Lakers over forty eight wins, would this
season be a transition season, as in, hey, we didn't
get a big other free agent, Let's get some integration
with the team, some comfort level, and see where we
go from here. Or is it gonna be a statement season?

(03:42):
Because last year Lebron played every game and he led
the NBA in minutes per game, so anytime he played,
he played the most, and he also played every game.
If I knew Lebron was gonna do that, I would
love the over forty eight season wins. I thought it
was a question mark. Today it seems like we've gotten

(04:04):
some answers, yeah. And Luke Walton, his head coach, had
some interesting comments when he talked about taking the long
view on Lebron, looking at this not just as a
one year thing, but we've got him for four years,
so so how do we approach making sure that he's
healthy enough and rested enough so that he can be
a hundred percent as they approached the postseason. Lebron James
responded with the following quote, I'm always fresh. All my

(04:28):
coaches want to figure out a way and how to
lessen my minutes. I keep telling them I'm strong enough
to play the most minutes, but they won't listen to me.
So it's okay. I like it. End quote. What is
the Vegas perspective on those comments from Lebron? Well, I
think when Luke Walton said what he said, my first
thought was, well, how do we necessarily believe him? Right?

(04:48):
He could be misleading us. But having Lebron respond to
it and then kind of act yes and again, this
is great. This is Marcho like hey you got the flu?
You know, like, like your why if he's like, hey,
we got dinner with my friends tonight and the husband
has the flu and the husband's like, uh, you know,
oh yeah, I can go. I can go, I can go,

(05:10):
And the wife says, oh no, honey, you know you're sick. Okay,
but I would if you wanted me to. So it
sounds like Lebron's like, hey, I could do this, but
oh the coach doesn't want me to. So he gets
his Lebron gets his macho points. But it seems like
the end result is this feels like a transition season.
Not that they're not gonna play hard, but it won't

(05:31):
be Lebron playing every game. It won't be Lebron leading
the league's the league in games or minutes per game.
So if if that answers true, then I'm not as
anxious to bet over forty eight wins. Fads agreed, disagree, Yeah,
I agree with you, and I actually did bet them over.
I'm worried. So you hate hearing this, all right, So

(05:55):
I think there's one wild card that might give you
a little bit of hope. I here it is the
trade deadline. The sense is, oh, there isn't this additional
uh superstar Max contract. Who's to say they don't trade
for KWHI Leonard before the deadline or elite player X

(06:17):
y Z, and if they do, it might not help
as much on the season wins, but it could help
on those tight awards. I think it's very possible Lakers
are playing to see what they have now with an
eye of potentially making a big change at the deadline
or most certainly in the summer. Be sure to catch

(06:37):
live editions of Straight out of Vegas weekdays at six
pm Eastern, three pm Pacific on Fox Sports Radio and
the I Heart Radio app. I'm r J bel we
are Straight out of Vegas and I'm jonahs Knocks the
voice of you the fan coming up here. In just
a couple of moments, we will have our trends of
the week in the NFL and in college football. Every
day we bring Las Vegas to you right now on

(07:00):
the strip seventy six degrees and then Neon is pumping.
It's about that time each week here on Straight out
of Vegas we do a little something called this Friends
of the Week Straight out of Vegas, and we start
in the NFL. R J, what does Vegas think of

(07:21):
some NFL trends of the week. Well, we think there's
some money potentially to be made here. We've got three Biggias.
Let's start with the Patriots. Fez and I are going
to disagree on this game in just about five minutes,
so get ready for crossfire. Here's something that did not
account for. I like the Pats. Pats are so good

(07:43):
as road favors. What's the danger of being a road favor?
You overlook your opponent because you're clearly better than the opponent.
That's why your favorite on the road. Right Well, the
Pats when they're favored by a field goal or more
on the road are seventy eight percent straight up, they
win the game seventy eight percent of the time, going

(08:06):
back almost seventy games, fifty three winners, fifteen losers, straight up.
No team in the NFL is even close to that
good as a road favorite as the Patriots. As a
road favorite, why Balotchick a lot of answers And with
Balotchick and it makes sense why he's meticulous. He won't
let the team look ahead. That's one of the reasons

(08:29):
the patch of the right side against the Bears NFL
trend number two Cincinnati Bengals. As a Steelers fan, I
could call him the Bungles. I won't not good in
prime time. I mean like like not good in prime
time in a shocking way, and we can say, you know,
here's the thing about trends. There's gotta be logic behind him,

(08:54):
because randomly there can be you know, there can be
trends all the time that that are are pretty extreme
team and the question is do they mean anything? But ultimately,
if you have the numbers behind it and you have
the logic behind it, that's when a trend, that's when
a trend is very very important. And I think we

(09:17):
have that here with Cincinnati, where if you look back
through Cincinnati when they play in playoff games or in
prime time, they're terrible. Coach Lewis in prime time nine
and thirty one, straight up, thinking about that forty games
he's coached for the Bankers in prime time, he's won

(09:37):
nine of them. I'm not betting the Bengals. Let's just
say that last trend in the NFL. Then we're going
to college in a moment. Home underdogs of more than
eight points they're not very common. Think about It's one
thing to be an underdog at home. To be an
underdog way above a touchdown more than eight points, some

(10:01):
of that is gonna be Hey, the home team's embarrassed,
they're they're mad, they're that big of an underdog, they're
gonna play hard. It also could be the crowds and
thus because it's a heck of a team coming in,
they want to see their team salvage a bad season,
perhaps where a win. And it's also that same road
favorite looking ahead potentially home underdogs more than eight points

(10:24):
forty two and twenty four against the spread, forty two winners,
only twenty four losers, almost sixty percent, blindly playing those
big home underdogs. In the NFL, we got a qualifying team.
We've got San Francisco hosting the Rams getting nine and

(10:45):
a half right now, you've got to look San Francisco
or passed based on that history. These are your trends
of the week here on straight out of Vegas, and
we continue this time r J in the world of
college football. All right, Brad powers all the college college
You've got three good college football trends. So first one
USC big game this week, and they're on the road

(11:06):
against Utah USC right now, a seven point road underdog
in Utah, and lately the Trojans in the underdog role
not so good. One and eleven against the number. Last
twelve times USC has been an underdog, and it makes
a lot of sense because I think this is more
of a Clay Helton type trend. That's the head coach
of USC, and when USC can't, you know, out skill

(11:29):
out talent the opponent when it comes down to scheming,
because USC is not gonna outskill out talent. That's why
they're a dog in a game. They're not gonna certainly
out coach them. That's why USC is a bad underdog team. Wow,
that's a good trend. So when USC is a dog,
they are one in eleven, one and eleven against the spread,
and this week seven point dog at Utah. So the

(11:51):
theory is you've got a Utah team they went for
two last year against USC, so there's extra revenge, some
would say, all so though obviously USC is not the
better team. So now it's down to intangibles, it's down
to coaching, and Houghton hasn't done so well on those pots. Okay,
next up, we got Bama, best team in the country,

(12:12):
no one is questioning that. And against Tennessee there's some
history being made. Yeah, So we've been talking all year
long about these historical numbers for Alabama. While we're seeing
some historical spreads, another one this week Alabama on the
road at Tennessee, a twenty nine point favorite in modern history.

(12:33):
This goes back to Tennessee has never been more than
a twenty point underdog in this game, a twenty nine
point home underdog to the Alabama. So you're saying, in
the history of the world, Tennessee is the biggest home
dog they've ever been by far by nine points. Wow.
Now the third college football trend involves a game, Brad,

(12:55):
that you and physic disagree on, straight out of Vegas
at R J. Bow. This is what we call crossfire here.
That music that means there's a I mean, it just
sounds like a battles gonna happen. All right, who's going, Brad.
We're gonna let you go first, because you've got the trend.
Give us your pick and the spread. Well, I like

(13:16):
Michigan here, but let me first. The trend is against
Michigan because the last ten times that Michigan State has
played Michigan. How about this, Michigan State has covered all
ten meetings last ten years, Tenano against the number for
the Spartans. But I think that's hold hold on a second,
hold on. So you're saying you've got a ten to
know straight up trend or tendano against the spread trend, right,

(13:39):
and you're saying, I'm going the other way. It's saying
Michigan State covers in this series, and you're saying you're
going the other way. You better make a heck of
a case. Well, in this particular cases, we have not
seen Michigan this good probably in any of the ten years.
And on top of that, but hold on a second,
hold on, Michigan beast, I'm gonna defend you. Michigan being
that good or not is building the line. It is

(14:01):
in a right. So what we're saying is the whole
thing about a trend, is there some dynamic the line
probably is an accounting for that's meaningful, right, But somehow
you're saying, hey, Chris, Michigan is good. This trends no
longer person, I think that this trending in this okay,
So what you're saying is this trend has gotten so popular,

(14:22):
and so why it's spread. It's affecting the number more
than it should. Absolutely any other thoughts. Well, on top
of that, Michigan State six offensive starters questionable or doubtful
for this game, caught up against that Vaughn in Michigan defense.
I don't like your chance's hair fest. Alright, So the
spread in this game seven Michigan a seven point road

(14:42):
favorite at Michigan State. You like the other side fest
like Michigan State plus the seven, it's gonna be eleven
and o after this game. I really think this is
Michigan State's biggest game of the year against Michigan. Michigan's
biggest game of the year will be when they play
your buck guys, and I think that's a big reason
why Michigan State seemingly always covers this game. So wait

(15:03):
a minute, you're saying your handicap here going against Michigan
is Michigan, though they have a chance at the national
title if they win this game, is not going to
be motivated. Oh, they'll be motivated. So I'm confused. Michigan
State has had this game every year, circles the game,
so this is like the old spinal tap. Michigan is

(15:25):
gonna be out of ten, but somehow Michigan State's going
to eleven eleven and a half. R J boy, that's
a week handicap. Well, I like the eleven because the
second reason, if you want to bet Michigan, why didn't
you lay seven on them at home against Wisconsin last week?
Wisconsin is not even as good as Michigan State. Think
about this, and now Michigan's on the road against a

(15:48):
better team, Michigan State, and they're still laying seven. So
what you're saying is there's been some real Michigan love
because of their domination and such against in fear teams.
The market overreacted to that blowout win against Wisconsin. Yes,
I'm not betting either team. Neither you guys have convinced me.
I wasn't too impressed on that one. All right, So Brad,

(16:10):
you're on Michigan seven, you're on Michigan State party. I'm
nowhere on this game. In fact, I'm not even gonna
watch the game because I didn't like that analysis so much.
But we do know one thing, and we got one
more crossfire left about hardball, all right, So you didn't
contribute that to the handicap, but it's something to consider.
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