October 12, 2019 • 25 mins
RJ Bell of pregame.com and Fox Sports Radio tells Colin Cowherd which games the wise guys in Vegas agree and disagree with. Plus, Colin includes a bonus 6th pick exclusive to this podcast not in his Blazing 5.
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What Girls in the Forest, our imagination and our family bonds.
The forest is closer than you think. Find a forest
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you by the United States Forest Service and the AD Council. Hi, everybody, welcome,
It's Saturday morning. That's why I've got such incredible energy.
(01:08):
Blazing five. Then we bring our buddy on r J
Belfree game dot com. But first my coveted red Hot
Blazing five. Let's blaze it off. It's Collins blazing. Fix
the public on the Seahawks. I'll take Cleveland plus two.
First of all, Cleveland's a young team. Young teams and
(01:29):
young people are more emotional a roller coaster. They lost,
they want they lost, they want they lost last week.
I think they win this week. Cleveland does a lot
of things very well defensively. Sacks tied for six, pass
yards allowed seventh, third down percentage allowed fifth. This is
an excellent Cleveland defense, which gets two of their best
(01:50):
three cornerbacks back this week, and that allows them to
add more pressure. So I think the defense will be
very stingy. Also, Seattle is a football team right now.
You can throw the ball on him. Pete Carroll is
a great coach, but it is a defense outside of
Bobby Wagner that is sort of learning their way. It's
not a great defense. I think Cleveland does more things
(02:13):
good on the defensive end consistently. I like their matchup
in the trenches. I think Baker, Nick Chubb, O'Dell Jarvis
Landry bounced back. This was an easy one for me.
I'll go against the public Cleveland plus two wins over Seattle.
Sts said, Jaguars love the Jaguars minus too. We keep
(02:34):
asking the Saints to be in these wild emotional games
with a backup quarterback l A and Dallas and as
Seattle and then the division game against a shootout against Tampa.
That puts stress on a franchise. And I like New
Orleans a lot, But this is the best Jacksonville offense
in the franchise's history. Gardner Minshew doesn't turn the ball over.
(02:56):
Their averaging four hundred yards a game. Leonard for Net
has a Hi baby, he has arrived. He is third
in rushing yards from scrimmage. I think Jacksonville comes home.
I think there's a natural letdown for the same to
have been these wildly dramatic games with the Rams and
the cr Cowboys and the Bucks. I'll think Jacksonville to
win by a field goal. Twentie Falcon said Cardinals. Okay,
(03:21):
I'm gonna take Atlanta minus two and a half. Now
Atlanta is not playing well. But here's the thing. Don't
get don't get fall in love with Arizona when over Cincinnati.
Cincinnati is inches better than Miami last week. Cincinnati didn't
have a j greener John Ross and their offensive line
is the worst in the league. It was a pop
gun high school college offense. So Arizona goes in there
with their defensive problems and they look like world beaters.
(03:43):
Atlanta's got way better personnel and Arizona's defense is not good.
Points yards, rushing yards, They're lousy. Their bottom three or
four in the NFL. Kyler Murray's a great athlete, but
he's been sacked twenty one times. That's how bad Arizona's
offensive line is that Kyler Murray has been sacked twenty
one times. Matt Ryan is still averaging three hundred and
(04:06):
thirty yards passing a game. I like at lanted to
win Toree Titans, said Broncos. When when Tennessee can run
the football, they win and they'll run the football here, Uh,
here's the thing about the Titans. They're a limited team,
but they're a clean team. They don't turn the ball over.
In fact, Marcus Mariota um, the Titans have one turnover
(04:29):
all year. Now, just think about that. Nobody's close in
the NFL. The next few is turnovers are Arizona with
four Okay, the Titans have a plus six turnover differential.
Mariota seven t D passes. He's one of three quarterbacks
in the NFL with seven plus t D passes and
no picks. So again, Tennessee is not a great team,
but they're a clean team. They're well coached, they're smart,
(04:49):
they have good line play. They don't make mistakes. Joe
Flact goes to better quarterback. I think in this game
more mistake prone. The weather is bad, meaning low scoring.
I'll take any points I can get, and I've taken
Tennessee a lot through the years. People bail on Tennessee
all the time. There are weekends. I'm not I'm not
so sure they're not one of the top two or
three teams in the league. I think they go to
(05:11):
Denver and went out right. Cowboys and Jets this game
and line was eight and a half. It's now down
to seven. At eight and a half, I've already bet
it on Monday, but I'll still tell you it's the number.
The Jets is the right side to be on. Take
the Jets plus seven. Here's the thing. Adam Gates, I
was told had so little confidence in his third string quarterback,
(05:34):
then he just hit the playbook. What was the point.
I'm not gonna unveil our secrets are explosion plays, our
tricks with my third string quarterback who can't pull this
stuff off. So basically, Dallas has one half of film
to really look at. They don't have any film on
Sam Donald with all these guys. And by the way,
the Jets led Buffalo, a very good team sixteen nothing
in the first game. So you got a Dallas team
(05:56):
that has to go back to week one to find
any tape on the Jet. By the way, the Jets
have averaged under Sam Donald twenty two points since he
started for the Jets, the average eleven without him. So
Sam Donald completely doubles this offense. And I'll say this
about the Cowboys this year, last couple of games. Dock's
not playing well, offensive line is banged up, receivers aren't
(06:17):
totally healthy. I think Dallas wins the game. I'm betting
a number here. I already bet it on Monday when
it was bigger than this, But the numbers too many
points to give the Jets at home, Sam Donald. They
don't have a ton of film. It's a lot of guesswork.
Jets are mostly healthy Cowboys win four, but I'll bet
the number. I'll take the seven and the Jets. All right,
(06:37):
here we go. R J Bell pregame dot Com got
the show straight out of Vegas on Fox Sports Radio
six to seven Eastern. I was doing uh errands all week,
so I listened to that thing three or four different times,
and so here we go. I'm gonna sound like a sharp.
Here are you ready? R J? Well, first off, how
was the show? It was very informative. Now I hope
(06:59):
we're not hearing a lot r J picks here because
you're listening to the show. Well, no, but I I do.
I I you know, I respect you, and but I've
I've learned a lot. But this one feels like the
ultimate sharp. So Cleveland looked like crud on Monday night football.
Everybody's selling them. Seattle and Russell Wilson looked amazing against
the Rams. Everybody's buying them. But Cleveland is young and uneven,
(07:22):
bad good bad, good bad good. I think they'll play
their game of the year. I get points. I really
really like their defensive line match up here against Seattle's
oh line. I'll take Cleveland plus two one of the
wise guys think agreement, and you are exactly right. And
let's think about this. There's a couple of ways to
compare lines to get perspective on is this line too
(07:46):
big too small? One of them is home field advantage,
So if a team is even with the opponent, home
teams typically three. Now, some home fields are bigger than others,
but three's pretty much in there. Here's another way to
do it, though, Let's compare some teams. So Cleveland just
(08:06):
last week went to San Francisco. The line the entire week,
It ran up late, but the entire week was three
and a half, which means San France was a half
point better because three from home field. Three and a half, okay,
almost even with the Browns. Now, this line is telling
you that Seattle was five points better than the Browns.
(08:29):
Because the Browns are at home, they should be laying three,
but they're actually getting too. Now what would you say,
calling right now if I said compare Seattle to San Francisco. Well,
the feeling is I think Seattle is way far superior. Oh,
I wonder you know what's interesting about San Francisco. Football
outsiders have them as the number one team, even ahead
(08:53):
of New England. So to me, I think San Franciattle
is about you said comparing San Franz and Seattle. Yes,
I think San Francisco is better. I thought you meant
Cleveland in Seattle. I think seattle Field is much better
than Cleveland, and I don't think they are okay fair enough.
So that's interesting. So if we do assume San fran
and Seattle is about the same, and last week Cleveland
(09:15):
was only a half point worse than San fran and
now they're five points worse than Seattle, then it means
that there's been this massive adjustment off of one game
that's always wrong. That's the driver of the agreement. Last
thing on this game, though, It does worry me about
Baker because one of the things we did talk about
(09:35):
was Richard Sherman. He knew everyone had cameras. Did he
really think he was gonna be able to lie about that?
It just strikes me he must have so much disdain
for Mayfield that he would just lie understanding he's gonna
get caught, just to cause him some grief. If these
teams are that much against Baker, I think that's a
huge disadvantage for Cleveland. But we both agree Brown's plus
(09:59):
two is to play. Okay, uh, this will go against
what most people think. I'm gonna take the Jags minus
two at home against the Saints. The Saints have been
in four big emotional games, rams Seahawks, Cowboys Division game
against Tampa I And again, I like what Sean Payton's
(10:19):
done here. But Jacksonville's offense has been very productive. When
they're not sloppy, they're actually a good team. And I
think the Saints I just don't think you can keep
asking a team to play these big emotional games with
a backup quarterback. I think the Saints pulled back here,
and I like the number. I'll take Jags minus two. Yeah.
(10:40):
I agree with everything you're saying, agreement except the number.
I feel like we're getting out of range here because
if you went on the street and said Saints at Jags,
what's the line, wouldn't you say? A majority of CASHU
NFL fans are gonna say Saints small favor Yes, Saints
Saints minus two, Yeah, I think so. So it's to
me three his home field. So if it got the
(11:03):
three Jacksonville in the Saints would be even teams. And
I don't think that's the case. So to some degree
this feels like the sharp side. It worries me because
of the value. I'd like it a lot more. Pick them.
I've been trying to fade Bridgewater, and I gotta tell you,
I'm getting beat up. And what in that regard? It would?
It would? And here's the thing. I'm a big believer
(11:26):
that the teams know so much more than any outsider,
and you can see by their actions what they think.
Sean Payton has paid a significant money for a backup quarterback,
meaning more than usual for Bridgewater. They believe he's the
next quarterback there. So all the pessimism, all the ten
yards and all that not beyond you gotta wonder, are
(11:47):
we fading Sean Payton's not only in this game or games,
but his judgment and about Bridgewater. So all the sharps
agree with you, I tend to. I just think it's
a little expansive. I'm gonna give you agreement though. On Jacksonville, Wow,
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and the ad council. I'm gonna take Atlanta minus two
at Arizona. And here's why I think Cincinnati is awful.
(13:40):
I think Cincinnati is a field goal better maybe than Miami.
And last week that bad Cincinnati team that was blown
out by Mason Rudolph didn't have John Ross or a j. Green.
That may have been for the day, the worst offense
in the league, just for the day, if not the season. UM,
(14:01):
So Arizona wins and there's this feeling like, Wow, They've
got it together. I think Cincinnati right now is atrocious
with no perimeter players, and I do think Atlanta Matt
Ryan is moving the ball, so I do believe time
of possession the Falcons will win it um because Cincinnati
frankly just couldn't sustain drives. And I think Atlanta's got
(14:24):
better personnel, They're a better team now will they play
hard for their coach. But I'm gonna take the Falcons
minus too. I think they think they win by a
field goal disagreement. And it's not any love for the
Cardinals though. Oftentimes when a team wins a big game,
right and winning your first game is a big game,
(14:44):
you would fade him in the next week because you
think they might. I think with the first year team
or coach, first year quarterback, if anything, it gives the momentum.
I think that they come to the building enthused. You know,
at different times your career and again call him You've
been a skyrocket of success. But maybe you have a
down you know, a back at Tampa or whatever, maybe
(15:06):
had a down quarter on the news or whatever, and
then the next ones come out and they're good. That
energizes you, doesn't it so to me, I think in general,
fading a big win is a good thing. I don't
like it here. But here's the main thing. Quinn's out.
I mean, I don't see I would lay mine. He's
not coaching there next year. And here's why he took
(15:28):
over the defense. It's one thing as a CEO type
head coach to say, well change they changed every coordinator,
every key coach. He took over the defense. And last
week against Houston was that maybe the worst defensive performance
of the year of any team. And now they're lame
points on the road. So last thing, let's just do
(15:50):
the flip six points. Atlanta would be an eight point
favorite at home against the Cardinals should they be laying
eight to anybody disagreement. Uh, here we go to a
team that I actually bet more um than probably the
average fan. I'm gonna take the Titans plus two at Denver.
First of all, snow whether it could be a very
low scoring game. Here's the thing I like about Tennessee.
(16:12):
They are a limited team. We would both acknowledge offensively
they're limited, But I'm okay with limited if you're clean.
They don't turn it over, they don't throw picks, not
a lot of general penalties. I think this is a
ugly low scoring game. I think Flacco is more prone
to big plays, but bigger mistakes. And I frankly think
(16:33):
Mike Rabel has shown he can win games on the road. Um,
they bounced back after poor performances. I'm gonna take the
Titans plus two here. What do you think? What do
the wise guys think? Agreement? And here's the thing about
Tennessee and the film guys really clued me into this,
and it's so great on the internet. Now you've got
(16:53):
you know, even a dozen people and again you got
the senior guy co Sell on your show. And by
the way, calling I gonna be honest with you, we
were talking about that co Sell comment on the Giants
on a pod about four weeks ago. And I've noticed
you've been replaying that a lot. You know, somehow you
weren't talking about it. And then I mean, I'm every
(17:14):
time I hear it, I just smiled. I'm like, there
we go, because that was a hell of a comment.
Wasn't geez about how bad the Giants were? Well, to me,
here the film guys are saying, Tennessee, you handicapped this way?
Can they run the ball? If they can run it,
it opens everything up. If they can't, they're done. And
you might think, oh, Denver von Miller, Well you look
(17:37):
at d v O A against the Run. They're in
the high twenties, Denver meaning bad. And another thing about Denver,
they just one. And this is another example where it
kind of flips. I think from Arizona. Arizona is enthused
off the wind, Denver wins. Maybe there's a let down
because to me, the monkeys off their back. Does anyone
(18:00):
think they're making the playoffs? And oh, by the way, Flacco,
he's a guy that not only do they owe a
ton of money to this year, they owe a ton
next year. I don't think here's a great feeling in
that building. Agreement Titans three to one agreement, Cowboys Jets.
I'm gonna go Jets plus seven. A couple of things. Um,
if you look at the Jets average when he plays,
(18:21):
twenty two points and what they average when he doesn't
eleven point seven, clearly Donald's better than people think he's athletic.
I also think Adam Gaze, knowing he was on a
third string quarterback, not a backup, a third string quarterback,
mostly hit the playbook. I mean, what's the point of
trying stuff and doing stuff and unveiling stuff when we're
(18:42):
playing top teams with our third quarterback. So I think
the Jets mostly healthy. Now, remember they led Buffalo sixteen nothing.
They've got real players here, so I think they unveil
the playbook. I think Sam Donald plays. I think I
think the Jet could win it, but I'll take Dallas
as the winner. But seven this this number, by the way,
(19:05):
like on Monday it was like eight eight and a half.
But I'll still take the Jets plus seven. Here, one
of the wise guys think, okay, maybe you can tell
from my voice, um agreement. I hate this because I
do think Dallas is in one of those spots. And
we've talked about this many times over the years. Road
favorites off of Bye do exceptionally. Wow. Now you're thinking
(19:28):
what Dallas isn't off of Bye? But what does the
by represent focus? Because they're not gonna look ahead of
a team if they just had a week off. I
think Dallas is focused here. What's making me like the
Jets is I think Dallas is gonna run, run, run,
And remember, lower scoring means every points more valuable for
(19:48):
the underdog. And personally, if you play the Jets, I
think you've got to speaking to the audience, You've got
to play the under correlated on two team parlay because
if the Jet cover the odds of it going under
a well over, I like that a bunch. Let me
ask you a quick question. Did you hear that about
Gaze in the playbook or is that pure speculation? Um,
(20:12):
what I've been told by people I have good friends
close to the Jets, because a lot of my friends
out east were Jet fans, is that Folk is such
a limited athlete, such a limited thrower, that there was
I was told there was no sense of putting him
in spots that were difficult I mean Lavy and Bill
average two and a half yards of rush. They took
out the clever, they took out the explosive place, they
(20:34):
took out the dynamic plays. They wanted to keep games close, um,
just trying to not make a ton of mistakes. I
think they unveil stuff they haven't shown anybody. And I
go back only time i've seen Donald this year, he
led a very good Buffalo team sixty nothing, No, I agree?
Is it sixteen nothing or it was like five weeks?
I think. I mean, we know Buffalo now is a
(20:54):
very good football team. So I think you're gonna see
a Jets offense that we saw against Buffalo, that creative, clever, explosive,
dynamic and you know a lot of multiple sets we
haven't seen. Yeah, so I gotta be candid. I have
not heard that, and I think there's a lot of
even I don't think Gaye would have said, well, this
place is gonna give us a better chance to win,
but let's not bother. But I think because of the
(21:16):
limitations of fall, there's a lot of the playbook they
weren't able to use. So that's interesting to me. But
I'll tell you this. I listen I do three hits
a week on New York Radio. They're not saying, Oh,
don't worry. I mean, it's like they want this guy's
hat already. So to some degree, the focus on the
jet side is gonna be there too, So uh slight
(21:38):
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States Forest Service and the AD Council. Alright, bonus pick
(22:40):
only for our Saturday podcast A. Lions go on the road.
They've won a couple of times. They're recently at Lambeau.
They get three and a half. I like the number
one when it was four and four and a half.
I would probably take the Lions here. I think Matt
Patricia's got them playing good defense. Packers off a very
dramatic win National TV over Dallas. Uh, you know, do
they pull back a little? Will still don't know. If
Davante Adams place, I'd probably take Lions plus three and
(23:03):
a half. What would the wise guys say, Oh, biggest
disagreement of the week. Luckily you pulled that, or luckily
this wasn't one of your five. But here's what I'll say,
home field three. Except in a couple of places, Seattle,
New Orleans and Green Bay, it's four. It's four in
Green Bay. Can we really make the case the Lions
(23:24):
are better than the Packers? I think the Lions are,
but I think it's closer than we think. But but yeah,
I agree with that. So to me, it really is
the simple math is saying, Lambeau and you mentioned it,
I didn't realize that when green Bay beat Dallas, Aaron
Rodgers for his career went to exactly five on the road,
(23:46):
So how good is he at home? Think about it
if he's only five on the road. And to me,
that's what this is all about, the idea that the
homes field is so good. And I do think I
hold Detroit is four No against green Bay is a
little deceiving. Last season, the second game was Week seventeen
Packers that shut it down. So still they've been good
(24:07):
against them. I wouldn't overreact. I personally, in fact, physick
our guy, NFL guy, best better of the week so
far has been on green Bay. Wow, well, why would
have lost it anyway? Well we'll say, well pick is
usually the one that was the last game. So the
last game I was gonna beat is the bonus pick.
So this is the one that lost out when I
(24:29):
started thinking about it. So in the end, yeah, you're saying, look,
how wise you were to have the wrong side, But
I would have gotten Detroit, all right. R J. Bell.
The show is straight out of Vegas, Fox Sports Radio
six to seven Eastern Pregame dot Com is Twitter account
at r J and Vegas can talk to you about
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What Girls in the Forest, our imagination and our family bonds.
The forest is closer than you think. Find a forest
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(00:45):
What Girls in the Forest, our imagination and our family bonds.
The forest is closer than you think. Find a forest
near you and discover the forest dot org brought to
you by the United States Forest Service and the AD Council. Hi, everybody, welcome,
It's Saturday morning. That's why I've got such incredible energy.
(01:08):
Blazing five. Then we bring our buddy on r J
Belfree game dot com. But first my coveted red Hot
Blazing five. Let's blaze it off. It's Collins blazing. Fix
the public on the Seahawks. I'll take Cleveland plus two.
First of all, Cleveland's a young team. Young teams and
(01:29):
young people are more emotional a roller coaster. They lost,
they want they lost, they want they lost last week.
I think they win this week. Cleveland does a lot
of things very well defensively. Sacks tied for six, pass
yards allowed seventh, third down percentage allowed fifth. This is
an excellent Cleveland defense, which gets two of their best
(01:50):
three cornerbacks back this week, and that allows them to
add more pressure. So I think the defense will be
very stingy. Also, Seattle is a football team right now.
You can throw the ball on him. Pete Carroll is
a great coach, but it is a defense outside of
Bobby Wagner that is sort of learning their way. It's
not a great defense. I think Cleveland does more things
(02:13):
good on the defensive end consistently. I like their matchup
in the trenches. I think Baker, Nick Chubb, O'Dell Jarvis
Landry bounced back. This was an easy one for me.
I'll go against the public Cleveland plus two wins over Seattle.
Sts said, Jaguars love the Jaguars minus too. We keep
(02:34):
asking the Saints to be in these wild emotional games
with a backup quarterback l A and Dallas and as
Seattle and then the division game against a shootout against Tampa.
That puts stress on a franchise. And I like New
Orleans a lot, But this is the best Jacksonville offense
in the franchise's history. Gardner Minshew doesn't turn the ball over.
(02:56):
Their averaging four hundred yards a game. Leonard for Net
has a Hi baby, he has arrived. He is third
in rushing yards from scrimmage. I think Jacksonville comes home.
I think there's a natural letdown for the same to
have been these wildly dramatic games with the Rams and
the cr Cowboys and the Bucks. I'll think Jacksonville to
win by a field goal. Twentie Falcon said Cardinals. Okay,
(03:21):
I'm gonna take Atlanta minus two and a half. Now
Atlanta is not playing well. But here's the thing. Don't
get don't get fall in love with Arizona when over Cincinnati.
Cincinnati is inches better than Miami last week. Cincinnati didn't
have a j greener John Ross and their offensive line
is the worst in the league. It was a pop
gun high school college offense. So Arizona goes in there
with their defensive problems and they look like world beaters.
(03:43):
Atlanta's got way better personnel and Arizona's defense is not good.
Points yards, rushing yards, They're lousy. Their bottom three or
four in the NFL. Kyler Murray's a great athlete, but
he's been sacked twenty one times. That's how bad Arizona's
offensive line is that Kyler Murray has been sacked twenty
one times. Matt Ryan is still averaging three hundred and
(04:06):
thirty yards passing a game. I like at lanted to
win Toree Titans, said Broncos. When when Tennessee can run
the football, they win and they'll run the football here, Uh,
here's the thing about the Titans. They're a limited team,
but they're a clean team. They don't turn the ball over.
In fact, Marcus Mariota um, the Titans have one turnover
(04:29):
all year. Now, just think about that. Nobody's close in
the NFL. The next few is turnovers are Arizona with
four Okay, the Titans have a plus six turnover differential.
Mariota seven t D passes. He's one of three quarterbacks
in the NFL with seven plus t D passes and
no picks. So again, Tennessee is not a great team,
but they're a clean team. They're well coached, they're smart,
(04:49):
they have good line play. They don't make mistakes. Joe
Flact goes to better quarterback. I think in this game
more mistake prone. The weather is bad, meaning low scoring.
I'll take any points I can get, and I've taken
Tennessee a lot through the years. People bail on Tennessee
all the time. There are weekends. I'm not I'm not
so sure they're not one of the top two or
three teams in the league. I think they go to
(05:11):
Denver and went out right. Cowboys and Jets this game
and line was eight and a half. It's now down
to seven. At eight and a half, I've already bet
it on Monday, but I'll still tell you it's the number.
The Jets is the right side to be on. Take
the Jets plus seven. Here's the thing. Adam Gates, I
was told had so little confidence in his third string quarterback,
(05:34):
then he just hit the playbook. What was the point.
I'm not gonna unveil our secrets are explosion plays, our
tricks with my third string quarterback who can't pull this
stuff off. So basically, Dallas has one half of film
to really look at. They don't have any film on
Sam Donald with all these guys. And by the way,
the Jets led Buffalo, a very good team sixteen nothing
in the first game. So you got a Dallas team
(05:56):
that has to go back to week one to find
any tape on the Jet. By the way, the Jets
have averaged under Sam Donald twenty two points since he
started for the Jets, the average eleven without him. So
Sam Donald completely doubles this offense. And I'll say this
about the Cowboys this year, last couple of games. Dock's
not playing well, offensive line is banged up, receivers aren't
(06:17):
totally healthy. I think Dallas wins the game. I'm betting
a number here. I already bet it on Monday when
it was bigger than this, But the numbers too many
points to give the Jets at home, Sam Donald. They
don't have a ton of film. It's a lot of guesswork.
Jets are mostly healthy Cowboys win four, but I'll bet
the number. I'll take the seven and the Jets. All right,
(06:37):
here we go. R J Bell pregame dot Com got
the show straight out of Vegas on Fox Sports Radio
six to seven Eastern. I was doing uh errands all week,
so I listened to that thing three or four different times,
and so here we go. I'm gonna sound like a sharp.
Here are you ready? R J? Well, first off, how
was the show? It was very informative. Now I hope
(06:59):
we're not hearing a lot r J picks here because
you're listening to the show. Well, no, but I I do.
I I you know, I respect you, and but I've
I've learned a lot. But this one feels like the
ultimate sharp. So Cleveland looked like crud on Monday night football.
Everybody's selling them. Seattle and Russell Wilson looked amazing against
the Rams. Everybody's buying them. But Cleveland is young and uneven,
(07:22):
bad good bad, good bad good. I think they'll play
their game of the year. I get points. I really
really like their defensive line match up here against Seattle's
oh line. I'll take Cleveland plus two one of the
wise guys think agreement, and you are exactly right. And
let's think about this. There's a couple of ways to
compare lines to get perspective on is this line too
(07:46):
big too small? One of them is home field advantage,
So if a team is even with the opponent, home
teams typically three. Now, some home fields are bigger than others,
but three's pretty much in there. Here's another way to
do it, though, Let's compare some teams. So Cleveland just
(08:06):
last week went to San Francisco. The line the entire week,
It ran up late, but the entire week was three
and a half, which means San France was a half
point better because three from home field. Three and a half, okay,
almost even with the Browns. Now, this line is telling
you that Seattle was five points better than the Browns.
(08:29):
Because the Browns are at home, they should be laying three,
but they're actually getting too. Now what would you say,
calling right now if I said compare Seattle to San Francisco. Well,
the feeling is I think Seattle is way far superior. Oh,
I wonder you know what's interesting about San Francisco. Football
outsiders have them as the number one team, even ahead
(08:53):
of New England. So to me, I think San Franciattle
is about you said comparing San Franz and Seattle. Yes,
I think San Francisco is better. I thought you meant
Cleveland in Seattle. I think seattle Field is much better
than Cleveland, and I don't think they are okay fair enough.
So that's interesting. So if we do assume San fran
and Seattle is about the same, and last week Cleveland
(09:15):
was only a half point worse than San fran and
now they're five points worse than Seattle, then it means
that there's been this massive adjustment off of one game
that's always wrong. That's the driver of the agreement. Last
thing on this game, though, It does worry me about
Baker because one of the things we did talk about
(09:35):
was Richard Sherman. He knew everyone had cameras. Did he
really think he was gonna be able to lie about that?
It just strikes me he must have so much disdain
for Mayfield that he would just lie understanding he's gonna
get caught, just to cause him some grief. If these
teams are that much against Baker, I think that's a
huge disadvantage for Cleveland. But we both agree Brown's plus
(09:59):
two is to play. Okay, uh, this will go against
what most people think. I'm gonna take the Jags minus
two at home against the Saints. The Saints have been
in four big emotional games, rams Seahawks, Cowboys Division game
against Tampa I And again, I like what Sean Payton's
(10:19):
done here. But Jacksonville's offense has been very productive. When
they're not sloppy, they're actually a good team. And I
think the Saints I just don't think you can keep
asking a team to play these big emotional games with
a backup quarterback. I think the Saints pulled back here,
and I like the number. I'll take Jags minus two. Yeah.
(10:40):
I agree with everything you're saying, agreement except the number.
I feel like we're getting out of range here because
if you went on the street and said Saints at Jags,
what's the line, wouldn't you say? A majority of CASHU
NFL fans are gonna say Saints small favor Yes, Saints
Saints minus two, Yeah, I think so. So it's to
me three his home field. So if it got the
(11:03):
three Jacksonville in the Saints would be even teams. And
I don't think that's the case. So to some degree
this feels like the sharp side. It worries me because
of the value. I'd like it a lot more. Pick them.
I've been trying to fade Bridgewater, and I gotta tell you,
I'm getting beat up. And what in that regard? It would?
It would? And here's the thing. I'm a big believer
(11:26):
that the teams know so much more than any outsider,
and you can see by their actions what they think.
Sean Payton has paid a significant money for a backup quarterback,
meaning more than usual for Bridgewater. They believe he's the
next quarterback there. So all the pessimism, all the ten
yards and all that not beyond you gotta wonder, are
(11:47):
we fading Sean Payton's not only in this game or games,
but his judgment and about Bridgewater. So all the sharps
agree with you, I tend to. I just think it's
a little expansive. I'm gonna give you agreement though. On Jacksonville, Wow,
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and the ad council. I'm gonna take Atlanta minus two
at Arizona. And here's why I think Cincinnati is awful.
(13:40):
I think Cincinnati is a field goal better maybe than Miami.
And last week that bad Cincinnati team that was blown
out by Mason Rudolph didn't have John Ross or a j. Green.
That may have been for the day, the worst offense
in the league, just for the day, if not the season. UM,
(14:01):
So Arizona wins and there's this feeling like, Wow, They've
got it together. I think Cincinnati right now is atrocious
with no perimeter players, and I do think Atlanta Matt
Ryan is moving the ball, so I do believe time
of possession the Falcons will win it um because Cincinnati
frankly just couldn't sustain drives. And I think Atlanta's got
(14:24):
better personnel, They're a better team now will they play
hard for their coach. But I'm gonna take the Falcons
minus too. I think they think they win by a
field goal disagreement. And it's not any love for the
Cardinals though. Oftentimes when a team wins a big game,
right and winning your first game is a big game,
(14:44):
you would fade him in the next week because you
think they might. I think with the first year team
or coach, first year quarterback, if anything, it gives the momentum.
I think that they come to the building enthused. You know,
at different times your career and again call him You've
been a skyrocket of success. But maybe you have a
down you know, a back at Tampa or whatever, maybe
(15:06):
had a down quarter on the news or whatever, and
then the next ones come out and they're good. That
energizes you, doesn't it so to me, I think in general,
fading a big win is a good thing. I don't
like it here. But here's the main thing. Quinn's out.
I mean, I don't see I would lay mine. He's
not coaching there next year. And here's why he took
(15:28):
over the defense. It's one thing as a CEO type
head coach to say, well change they changed every coordinator,
every key coach. He took over the defense. And last
week against Houston was that maybe the worst defensive performance
of the year of any team. And now they're lame
points on the road. So last thing, let's just do
(15:50):
the flip six points. Atlanta would be an eight point
favorite at home against the Cardinals should they be laying
eight to anybody disagreement. Uh, here we go to a
team that I actually bet more um than probably the
average fan. I'm gonna take the Titans plus two at Denver.
First of all, snow whether it could be a very
low scoring game. Here's the thing I like about Tennessee.
(16:12):
They are a limited team. We would both acknowledge offensively
they're limited, But I'm okay with limited if you're clean.
They don't turn it over, they don't throw picks, not
a lot of general penalties. I think this is a
ugly low scoring game. I think Flacco is more prone
to big plays, but bigger mistakes. And I frankly think
(16:33):
Mike Rabel has shown he can win games on the road. Um,
they bounced back after poor performances. I'm gonna take the
Titans plus two here. What do you think? What do
the wise guys think? Agreement? And here's the thing about
Tennessee and the film guys really clued me into this,
and it's so great on the internet. Now you've got
(16:53):
you know, even a dozen people and again you got
the senior guy co Sell on your show. And by
the way, calling I gonna be honest with you, we
were talking about that co Sell comment on the Giants
on a pod about four weeks ago. And I've noticed
you've been replaying that a lot. You know, somehow you
weren't talking about it. And then I mean, I'm every
(17:14):
time I hear it, I just smiled. I'm like, there
we go, because that was a hell of a comment.
Wasn't geez about how bad the Giants were? Well, to me,
here the film guys are saying, Tennessee, you handicapped this way?
Can they run the ball? If they can run it,
it opens everything up. If they can't, they're done. And
you might think, oh, Denver von Miller, Well you look
(17:37):
at d v O A against the Run. They're in
the high twenties, Denver meaning bad. And another thing about Denver,
they just one. And this is another example where it
kind of flips. I think from Arizona. Arizona is enthused
off the wind, Denver wins. Maybe there's a let down
because to me, the monkeys off their back. Does anyone
(18:00):
think they're making the playoffs? And oh, by the way, Flacco,
he's a guy that not only do they owe a
ton of money to this year, they owe a ton
next year. I don't think here's a great feeling in
that building. Agreement Titans three to one agreement, Cowboys Jets.
I'm gonna go Jets plus seven. A couple of things. Um,
if you look at the Jets average when he plays,
(18:21):
twenty two points and what they average when he doesn't
eleven point seven, clearly Donald's better than people think he's athletic.
I also think Adam Gaze, knowing he was on a
third string quarterback, not a backup, a third string quarterback,
mostly hit the playbook. I mean, what's the point of
trying stuff and doing stuff and unveiling stuff when we're
(18:42):
playing top teams with our third quarterback. So I think
the Jets mostly healthy. Now, remember they led Buffalo sixteen nothing.
They've got real players here, so I think they unveil
the playbook. I think Sam Donald plays. I think I
think the Jet could win it, but I'll take Dallas
as the winner. But seven this this number, by the way,
(19:05):
like on Monday it was like eight eight and a half.
But I'll still take the Jets plus seven. Here, one
of the wise guys think, okay, maybe you can tell
from my voice, um agreement. I hate this because I
do think Dallas is in one of those spots. And
we've talked about this many times over the years. Road
favorites off of Bye do exceptionally. Wow. Now you're thinking
(19:28):
what Dallas isn't off of Bye? But what does the
by represent focus? Because they're not gonna look ahead of
a team if they just had a week off. I
think Dallas is focused here. What's making me like the
Jets is I think Dallas is gonna run, run, run,
And remember, lower scoring means every points more valuable for
(19:48):
the underdog. And personally, if you play the Jets, I
think you've got to speaking to the audience, You've got
to play the under correlated on two team parlay because
if the Jet cover the odds of it going under
a well over, I like that a bunch. Let me
ask you a quick question. Did you hear that about
Gaze in the playbook or is that pure speculation? Um,
(20:12):
what I've been told by people I have good friends
close to the Jets, because a lot of my friends
out east were Jet fans, is that Folk is such
a limited athlete, such a limited thrower, that there was
I was told there was no sense of putting him
in spots that were difficult I mean Lavy and Bill
average two and a half yards of rush. They took
out the clever, they took out the explosive place, they
(20:34):
took out the dynamic plays. They wanted to keep games close, um,
just trying to not make a ton of mistakes. I
think they unveil stuff they haven't shown anybody. And I
go back only time i've seen Donald this year, he
led a very good Buffalo team sixty nothing, No, I agree?
Is it sixteen nothing or it was like five weeks?
I think. I mean, we know Buffalo now is a
(20:54):
very good football team. So I think you're gonna see
a Jets offense that we saw against Buffalo, that creative, clever, explosive,
dynamic and you know a lot of multiple sets we
haven't seen. Yeah, so I gotta be candid. I have
not heard that, and I think there's a lot of
even I don't think Gaye would have said, well, this
place is gonna give us a better chance to win,
but let's not bother. But I think because of the
(21:16):
limitations of fall, there's a lot of the playbook they
weren't able to use. So that's interesting to me. But
I'll tell you this. I listen I do three hits
a week on New York Radio. They're not saying, Oh,
don't worry. I mean, it's like they want this guy's
hat already. So to some degree, the focus on the
jet side is gonna be there too, So uh slight
(21:38):
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States Forest Service and the AD Council. Alright, bonus pick
(22:40):
only for our Saturday podcast A. Lions go on the road.
They've won a couple of times. They're recently at Lambeau.
They get three and a half. I like the number
one when it was four and four and a half.
I would probably take the Lions here. I think Matt
Patricia's got them playing good defense. Packers off a very
dramatic win National TV over Dallas. Uh, you know, do
they pull back a little? Will still don't know. If
Davante Adams place, I'd probably take Lions plus three and
(23:03):
a half. What would the wise guys say, Oh, biggest
disagreement of the week. Luckily you pulled that, or luckily
this wasn't one of your five. But here's what I'll say,
home field three. Except in a couple of places, Seattle,
New Orleans and Green Bay, it's four. It's four in
Green Bay. Can we really make the case the Lions
(23:24):
are better than the Packers? I think the Lions are,
but I think it's closer than we think. But but yeah,
I agree with that. So to me, it really is
the simple math is saying, Lambeau and you mentioned it,
I didn't realize that when green Bay beat Dallas, Aaron
Rodgers for his career went to exactly five on the road,
(23:46):
So how good is he at home? Think about it
if he's only five on the road. And to me,
that's what this is all about, the idea that the
homes field is so good. And I do think I
hold Detroit is four No against green Bay is a
little deceiving. Last season, the second game was Week seventeen
Packers that shut it down. So still they've been good
(24:07):
against them. I wouldn't overreact. I personally, in fact, physick
our guy, NFL guy, best better of the week so
far has been on green Bay. Wow, well, why would
have lost it anyway? Well we'll say, well pick is
usually the one that was the last game. So the
last game I was gonna beat is the bonus pick.
So this is the one that lost out when I
(24:29):
started thinking about it. So in the end, yeah, you're saying, look,
how wise you were to have the wrong side, But
I would have gotten Detroit, all right. R J. Bell.
The show is straight out of Vegas, Fox Sports Radio
six to seven Eastern Pregame dot Com is Twitter account
at r J and Vegas can talk to you about
Thank You Hybrid those higher Highlander hybrid byst look for
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