All Episodes

October 11, 2024 42 mins

Colin reacts to the 49ers beating the Seahawks on Monday Night Football!

He explains why the Seahawks have to move off Geno Smith even if it means trading star wide receiver D.K. Metcalf to trade up in the draft to get a quarterback (4:15), and why the Jets won’t be able to land a better head coach than Robert Saleh (9:30). 

Finally, Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network, joins Colin for a round of “Sharp or Square,” to help provide Colin with the sharpest betting advice for week 6 of the NFL plus the marquee Big Ten matchup between Ohio State and Oregon

21:15 - Jets vs Bills

23:30 - Broncos vs Chargers

26:16  - Bears vs Jags

29:30 - Packers vs Cardinals

32:00 - Commanders vs Ravens

41:00 - Bengals vs Giants

43:00 - Lions vs Cowboys

47:30 - Falcons vs Panthers

50:00 - Colts vs Titans

51:00 - Patriots vs Texans

53:30 - Oregon vs Ohio State

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements.)

Follow Colin and The Volume on Twitter for the latest content and updates! 

#Volume #Herd

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Mark as Played
Transcript

Episode Transcript

Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
The volume.

Speaker 2 (00:03):
The roller coaster of an NFL season is moving right along,
and it promises to be a month full of tricks, treats,
and of course, touchdowns. And Draftking sports book and official
sports betting partner of the NFL, is the number one
place to always bet touchdowns, running it in from the
one or an eighty yard bomb. We don't care how
they score them. We want to bet them. DraftKings hurt
us and is delivering. If you're ready to place your
first bet, make it simple. Bet on a player scoring

(00:25):
a touchdown. Go to DraftKings dot com and DraftKings Sportsbooks app.

Speaker 1 (00:29):
Make your pick.

Speaker 2 (00:30):
Here's a reason for new customers to do a touchdown
dance of their own. Bet five that's it. Bet five bucks,
get two hundred instantly in bonus bets. Draftking the number
one place to bet touchdowns. Download their app takes ninety seconds.
The code is Colin Coli n use the code Colin.
Bet five bucks get two hundred bonus bets instantly only
on DraftKings. The Crown is.

Speaker 3 (00:50):
Yours gambling problem. Call one eight hundred Gambler in New
York call eight seven seven eight open WY or text
hope and WY four six, seven, three six nine in Connecticut.
Help is available for gambling called eight eight eight seven
eight nine seven seven seven seven or visit CCPG dot org.
Please play responsibly on behalf of Boothill Casino when resorting
Kansas twenty one and over. Agent eligibility varies by jurisdiction

(01:11):
Voyd and Ontario Bonus Betsicspire one hundred and sixty eight
hours after issuance. Four additional terms and responsible gaming resources
see DKNNG dot co slash ft ball.

Speaker 2 (01:26):
All right, little instant reaction and fifteen minutes from now
you're gonna hear from Chad Milman Sharper Square thank you
for all joining us. San Francisco. The Niners got off
to a big first half league coasted to a thirty
six twenty four win. I never felt it was really
in doubt. You probably didn't either. I think it was.

(01:48):
It was a nice performance by brock Purty, who had
three touchdowns two hundred and fifty five yards. We talked
about this today on FS one, that this was a
big night for brock Purty. They're a very good top
four scoring team in the league. In the first half.
That's a lot of that's on Kyle Shanahan's scripted plays,
and brock perty is incredibly efficient in running those plays smartly.

(02:11):
Distributions excellent, and they jump out to lead. They have
not been a good second half offense. They have not
been a good red zone offense. So tonight meant something
because you have to. I mean, they were down to
a third running back tonight beyond you know, Christian McCaffrey's out,
hiss out, So I thought it was really important. Kittle
had a nice night, Deebo had touches. Brandon Ayuk still

(02:32):
doesn't feel like I'm getting the full Brandon Ayuk, but
this was a big night for Brock Purty. That it's
on the road. You have the better roster, you have
the better coach, but it's a tough environment. It is
a rival. Those those divisional games are tough. But I
do think week six in the NFL, this is Week six.
I think you start to see a separation between the

(02:53):
posers and the pretenders and the real teams. You're gonna
see the separation of quarterbacks. I'm gonna take Justin Herbert
over bow Nicks this weekend. I took tonight Brock Purdy,
who I think is better than Geno Smith. I think
you're going to see some separation this week. Bad teams
and mediocre teams can convince themselves for the first four
to five weeks that can play, and then you see separation,

(03:14):
and you also see improvement by some young players like
Caleb Williams has obviously had a very good last two weeks.
So you know Geno Smith is now oh and five.
I went and looked it up tonight, owen five officially
against San Francisco. He never plays particularly well. No, he
didn't have a run game tonight, whereas Brock Purdy did

(03:36):
have a run game. But he's been sacked fifteen times,
four touchdowns, five picks, mid eighties passer writing against San Francisco.
And that's a real deal. Is that you know you can?
I mean it's okay if Lamar Jackson loses to Kansas City.
Everybody's losing to Kansas City and Mahomes and Andy Reid,
but you gotta beat those divisional foes. Brady owned the

(03:56):
AFC East, Big Ben for years own Cincinnati Cleveland, and
Gino just doesn't play well against his rivals. So right
now you have Brock Perty's better than Geno. Kyler Murray's
better than Geno and Matt Stafford in divisions, better than
Geno Smith. Seattle's got the fourth best quarterback in the division.
Listen the Darnold story, the Baker story, the Geno story
of redemption. I love but Sam and Baker better than Geno.

(04:21):
He's number three on that list. So I thought Seattle
should have taken a quarterback in last year's draft. I
would have gone after Michael Pennock's the local kid and
had his offensive coordinator, Coach Grubb, who's now the OC
of the Seahawks. But Atlanta gets him so and I
also think they have to consider moving maybe a DK metcalf.
I just I don't know, it doesn't I thought Al

(04:42):
Michael's hit on it tonight, or maybe it was Kirk
kirk Street. DK sometimes doesn't feel engaged catching the ball
with his body. I just I just you get the
occasional slash plays, but I just don't feel like he's
always engaged. And you know, sometimes players just get tired
of teams an environment, and I don't know, there's a

(05:03):
lot of receivers on an annual basis from college to pro.
I think DK is a really good player. Explosive. Somebody
would be interested, But that just feels like you could
move off it and garner a good draft pick, and
that draft pick you could use to move up, because
Seattle's gonna win some games this year. As soon as
their defensive line gets healthy, they're going to win some games.

(05:24):
They won't be a top seven or eight drafting team.
So if you have to move up, you have to
give up, you know, a couple of seconds, a couple
of thirds, whatever you got to do to move up.
But I think Seattle needs to go get a quarterback.
You cannot have the fourth best quarterback in the division
right now. Gino again tonight, a couple of picks thirty
to fifty one. He's a better story than he is
a quarterback. Darnold this year is a great story, and

(05:48):
so as Baker. But they're also a really good quarterbacks. Currently.
Last two weeks, Seattle's been dominated time of possession. So
you know, when you fall into these big holes. They
already weren't competitive, even though I had it tied at
ten against the Giants. If you watch the game, they
were dominated. Their offense was rarely on the field. Tonight again,
you're losing time of possession, and some of that's just

(06:09):
the defense with Mike McDonald. They're all banged up, they
can't make stops. But you can talk yourself into a
lot of different things. You got to have the first
or second best quarterback in your division right now. In
the AFC, who leads the AFC East, the best quarterback
in the division, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson leads the AFC North.
He's playing the best in the division.

Speaker 1 (06:28):
C J.

Speaker 2 (06:29):
Stroud and Patrick Malmes, Okay and Kirk Cousins. You know
he's over there in the NFC South, best quarterback in
that division. So yeah, I think Seattle has to have
a big offseason. I like John Snyder with the GM.
I think he's sharp, and Pete Carroll didn't see eya
ee and it was a little bit of a power
struggle near the end, but go get a quarterback, got accumulate.

(06:54):
Some draft picks take a big swing on this. I
think it's a better quarterback college draft than we thought
six months ago. You know, you start watching these kids play,
they all improve. I'd make the move, but the overall tonight,
my take is this was a really important performance for
Rock Purty, and I thought he delivered. He was on
script in the first half, was Shanahan and then made

(07:15):
some plays, moved around with his feet a couple of
George Kittle moments. One of those, to George Kittle was
a complete dart. Here's something else I want to throw
out another topic before we get to Chad Millman. So
I'm not a huge fan of the Robert solid firing
because I think what happens is that you end up
with an interim coach, and everybody plays inspired football for

(07:37):
the interim coach, and you kind of get stuck because
the players all like him. A lot of times you
get stuck higher in the interim coach. But I was
texting a couple of coaches, one former coach and another
coach tonight, and last year there was one really good

(07:57):
job available because of the quarterback Chargers, and Justin Herbert
and Jim Harbaal the number one candidates swooped it up.
This is going to be a rare year when Philly, Dallas, Jacksonville,
Chicago and Cincinnati potentially can all have coaching openings. Now,
Chicago's playing well, and I think eber Flus at least
knows his side of the ball. Matt Eberflus, but you
could potentially have Jalen Hurts, Dak, Trevor Lawrence, Kleb Williams,

(08:21):
or Joe Burrow available. So this this is one of
those years for the New York Jets. Aaron Rodgers forty,
hasn't really been a great quarterback in his last twenty
starts prickly, kind of expensive, you know, the Jets. By

(08:41):
firing Sala, not only do you get into that interim
head coach dilemma where the players love the interim head
coach and play inspired football, and you kind of lose
the locker room potentially if you don't hire him, because
he's a guys guy's alfas a former player, he's well,
very well like according to all the people in New

(09:01):
York and the media, very well liked. So but also
this is going to be the Jets are not going
to be the first choice. I mean, Philadelphia has got
a better quarterback in Jalen Hurts. I'd take him over
Aaron today. He's younger and in his prime. It's a
better roster, better ownership. I mean, I think Dallas has
a better quarterback in Dak and a better owner. You know,

(09:24):
Chicago and Jacksonville. I mean I get Caleb Williams on
a rookie contract in Cincinnati again, Burrow or Aaron Rodgers
at forty one years old. And don't forget Buffalo, Josh Allen.
I like Sean McDermott, but that has been a noisy
coaching staff. Game management again this year is a topic

(09:47):
of conversation. Keep your eye on the Buffalo bill opening.
So and if the Giants, I think this would be
a catastrophic mistake if they moved off Brian Dable, Buffalo,
in my opinion, would swoop him up in five minutes.

(10:09):
I don't think the Giants are going to make that mistake.
But add Buffalo, that's the best job available, good roster,
solid GM, non chaotic ownership, Josh Allen, those jobs just
don't open up. That's like Matt Lafleur in Green Bay
job where Aaron was closer to his prime. Those jobs
just don't become available. So if the Jets are Jets

(10:32):
want to get into a sweepstakes for the best coach,
they may end up with a fourth or fifth best choice.
Look at these quarterbacks that can need coaches. Hurts, Alan Burrow,
Caleb Dak, Aaron is way way past his prime and
continues to be a little, in my opinion, subversive. He

(10:54):
says one thing to the media, Well, you're not buying, right,
You're not buying that Woodie Johnson phone call. They were
just wishing each other an early happy Thanksgiving. Right, you
don't buy it. I don't buy it. Nobody buys that.
So I was talking to a coach tonight and he said,

(11:16):
it's a good year to be looking for a job.
So that's the dilemma when you sort of bum rush
Robert sala is that the top candidates look at that,
and this top candidate, somebody that I think will be
available for a job. They kind of look at how
you treated the last guy, and the last guy was
actually pretty good at his side of the ball, Robert

(11:39):
sala So that's always the dilemma. You keep seeing the
same teams in the top ten in the draft, and
we always blame coaches and quarterbacks, but so often it's
really it's the guys upstairs. So nice win by the
Niners tonight, really nice win in Seattle. Don't have to
punt the season, but you have to have to upgrade

(12:00):
at the sports most important position. I think we can
all agree on that the roller coaster of an NFL
seasons moving right along, and it promises to be a
month full of tricks, treats, and of course, touchdowns. And
DraftKings sports book and official sports betting partner of the
NFL is the number one place to always bet touchdowns,
running it in from the one or an eighty yard bomb.

(12:21):
We don't care how they score them. We want to
bet them. DraftKings hurt us and is delivering. If you're
ready to place your first bet, make it simple. Bet
on a player scoring a touchdown. Go to DraftKings dot
Com and DraftKings Sportsbooks App.

Speaker 1 (12:32):
Make your pick.

Speaker 2 (12:33):
Here's a reason for new customers to do a touchdown
dance of their own. Bet five that's it. Bet five bucks,
get two hundred instantly in bonus bets. Draftking the number
one place to bet touchdowns. Download their app takes ninety seconds.
The code is Colin coln use the code Colin. Bet
five bucks get two hundred bonus bets instantly only on DraftKings.
The Crown is yours gambling problem.

Speaker 3 (12:55):
Call one eight hundred Gambler in New York call eight
seven seven eight open wy or text hope and why
four six seven, three six nine in Connecticut. Help is
available for problem gambling called eight eight eight seven eight
nine seven seven seven seven or visit CCPG dot org.
Please play responsibly on behalf of Boothill Casino when resorting
Kansas twenty one and over. Agent eligibility varies by jurisdiction,
void and Ontario Bonus Betsicspire one hundred and sixty eight

(13:17):
hours after issuance. Four Additional terms and responsible gaming resources
see DKNNG dot co slash ft ball.

Speaker 2 (13:29):
All right. Time for another edition of Sharp or Square
with my buddy Chad Milman, c COO Action Network. All
odds provided by DraftKings. So last year I had a
rough first month that I caught fire. And one of
the reasons I caught fires I started noticing a trend
in my picks is that I was overthinking the room.
And as this league has become more quarterback centric, when

(13:52):
all else fails, the best quarterback is winning the games,
regardless of the spread. And that Monday Night's a great example.
Is everything told you, oh, those unlucky Saints, and then
two plays in You're like, I'm betting against Patrick Mahomes
over Derek Carr, so a great example of that to
me this week, I'm gonna inverse it. Aaron Rodgers since

(14:21):
December of twenty twenty two has had one three hundred
yard game in that time. Davis Mills has had a couple. Okay,
Desmond Ritter has had more than one. Is that because
he's a pretty passer, and we tend to embrace pretty

(14:41):
longer the aging supermodel. We grow up with him. We
can't let pretty go. We can let Peyton Manning was great,
but he wasn't pretty. Aaron's pretty. He's not a very
good quarterback anymore. He's not an efficient quarterback. So Josh
Allen is really good. They're getting a bit healthier. This

(15:04):
is a team that's gone through a chaotic week. They're
still banged up on the offensive line. Josh Allen is
significantly better than Aaron Rodgers. I am swallowing the two
and a half points. I'm going against the high energy
of a interim coach. Let's go backward. Sharper square.

Speaker 4 (15:20):
I mean, it's square as square as can be. You're
going to take a road favorite in the division. That
is a trend that will work against you over time.
You are going to buy a team, while the Bills
obviously aren't a two game losing streak. You're going against

(15:45):
a team that is much more undervalued in the Jets,
playing at home because they are going through a coaching
change and because there has been all this chaos in
their organization for the past month. So you're really playing
against into what the public wants. The public, by the way,

(16:06):
are betting the Bills at about a eighty five to
ninety percent clip, And that's another time when you want
to fade the public.

Speaker 1 (16:17):
So it's square.

Speaker 4 (16:19):
This line has moved in the Bills direction. All the
money is coming are the bets are on the Bills.
The wise guys have bet this down to two, It
goes back up to two and a half. They take
it again, it goes back down to two. Wise guys
are in their jets.

Speaker 2 (16:35):
I do not believe. Although I said the Denver Broncos
would be significantly better, they were my choice last year.
I said the Rams are not a six win team.
This year, I said the Broncos personnel offensively is not
a five win team. They're going to win eight or nine,
probably don't make the playoffs. They're not on a three
game heater that said bow Nicks against Justin Herbert, who's

(16:57):
healthy with both tackles and offensive coach off of by
Chargers minus two and a half at Denver again, I'll
take the divisional road favorite. It is a mismatchic quarterback.
I do not believe the Denver Broncos are a four
game winning streak team. I am selling them at a
high point. Sharper square, Dude.

Speaker 4 (17:17):
There's a couple of games this week where there is
zero consensus and very strong opinions on both sides, and
this is one of those games. I will say that
I'm with you. My favorite co host, Simon Hunter, professional
better is with you. This line was at three, got
bet down to two and a half, then it goes

(17:39):
back up to three, then it gets bet down. What
that is telling you is that when the game is
at two and a half, professionals, a certain section of
professionals love the Charters, and when the game is at three,
a different group likes the Broncos. And they are basically
just playing each other right now. They are just betting
back and forth, back and forth.

Speaker 1 (18:01):
And like, what's interesting about these games?

Speaker 4 (18:03):
And we've talked a little bit about this when it
comes to people like Jim Harbaugh and also people like
Dan Campbell. They are building from the inside out. They
are building from the line of scrimmage, and with Harbaugh
and Campbell both it's really been about the offensive line.
So Joe All coming back hopefully Rashaun Slater coming back

(18:24):
for the Chargers. That will mitigate the Broncos' greatest strength,
which is their pass rouge, which this year's top five
in pressure rate and is really the reason why the
Broncos have been staying in the games. They're staying so
to me, I like the Chargers here because I think

(18:44):
that they are they have the better quarterback, and I
don't believe in bo Nicks yet. Think they've win with
some smoke and mirrors right now. But it is you
are not going to find a sharp side or a
square side on this. I will say the Broncos are
a very public dog. Because they've been winning. The public

(19:05):
is coming in. So if you're looking for how to fade,
you do want to fade the Broncos.

Speaker 2 (19:13):
Let's go to London. I think Caleb Williams and his
offensive cohorts went to Shane Waldron and said, we're not
a Pop Warner team. Give us more. Since that time,
Caleb Williams is completing seventy one percent of his throws
and doesn't have a turnover. The Jaguars just got out

(19:34):
of a long losing streak and almost gave that game away.
Whereas the Bears, I can look at them and go
excellent defensive coaching, and I can look at Caleb Williams
and say, ascending young star quarterback. There is nothing about
the Jaguars I can definitively say. I like the Bears

(19:55):
are starting to add to the things.

Speaker 4 (19:58):
I like.

Speaker 2 (19:59):
We know that he Luskin coach defense. That's inarguable. It's
like Robert Sola. You don't have to love him, he
knew defense. I'm going to take the Bears minus one
and a half. In London, favorites do well Overseas.

Speaker 4 (20:10):
Sharper Square favorites are I think thirty five and ten.
I don't know why, right, And by the way, I
think it's something like thirty fourteen and one against the spread,
including this past week Minnesota beating up on the Jets.

Speaker 1 (20:30):
Right.

Speaker 4 (20:30):
So the wise guys have been betting the Jags in
this spot. They're not fully bought in on the Bears.
They feel like the Bears have beaten bad teams, and
until the Panthers know, they didn't look that great beating
the Colts, they didn't look that great beating the Rams.

Speaker 1 (20:48):
I agree with you what you're seeing about Kayleb Williams.

Speaker 4 (20:50):
He's definitely taking steps and it's not like the Jags
defense is anything that is lighting up the league or
that people are afraid of. And to your point, like
Doug Peterson after that touchdown pass to Alec Pearce by
Joe Flacco in that game, I thought Doug Peterson wanted
to disappear into a hole. Like he was on the

(21:11):
balls of his feet, his elbows on his knees, like
he looked devastated, like I don't know what to do
with this team anymore.

Speaker 1 (21:18):
So this is not a good team. But they're still
betting the Jags.

Speaker 4 (21:21):
And I'll be honest with you, it's all trend based
and model based. There is nothing on the field that
makes any professional better look at this and say, oh, yeah,
I got to take the Jags. This is where, by
the way, your quarterback theory might play out, because best
quarterback wins. Yeah, the better quarterback wins. And I don't

(21:42):
think there's anyone who will say that Caleb Williams isn't
ascendant and that Trevor Lawrence is a little bit flataued
or even regressing right now. I think some of the
things that the wise Guy's like, if it's anything, it's
about the travel. There is a very significant and record
of the team that has played in London before performing

(22:07):
better because it is so sort of dislocating for both
teams that when you've had that experience it plays to
your strength.

Speaker 2 (22:16):
So there's I have this belief when there's a line.
Most lines are three to three and a half, two
and a half, six and a half, seven, seven and
a half. But when the line's four and a half
to five, what they're telling you is one team is
clearly better. And that tells me that green Bay minus
five is better than Arizona. So I tend to believe

(22:37):
that young quarterbacks Jordan Love still qualifies as that at
home are more comfortable. I think Jordan Love isn't totally healthy,
but I think he's getting there now. Christian Watson practice
this week. I picked green Bay to win the division.
Jordan Love's injury slowed that down. I have seen now

(22:57):
a half here or a half there where they look
really good. I think they put it all together. Arizona
is a celebratory young team that awful win could be flat.
I don't trust them week to week. I would swallow
the points five and take Green Bay Sharper square totally sharp.

Speaker 4 (23:14):
It's the side. The Cardinals are one of those public teams.
We just talked about it with the Broncos to watch, Yeah,
like they're really fun to watch, and look, they just.

Speaker 1 (23:25):
Had their Super Bowl. Right.

Speaker 4 (23:27):
The Cardinals right now are in second place in their
division and the Niners are in third because they're both
two and three, and the Cardinals beat the Niners. The
challenge with Kyler Murray is there's so much inconsistency. And
we liked what we saw Trey McBride, but again, like
they won that game because at the end of it,

(23:49):
the Niners didn't have a kicker, and so they had
to make really unorthodox decisions when they were in the
red zone when otherwise they might have been kicking field goals.
And if not for a fumble, the Cardinals don't get
the ball back and they don't get a chance to
drive for the game winning kick. Right, So we have
to take some of this cardinal ascendancy with a little

(24:10):
bit of a grain assault, and I think I'm seeing
the same thing that you are with the Packers. Number one,
Matt Lafleur is a genius when it comes to scheming.
He is clearly going to be a better coach than
Jonathan Gannon is going to be. And I also think
the Packers' defense this year, their defensive backfield, especially very opportunistic.
Already more interceptions this year through that was before last

(24:34):
week than they had all of last year. So while
there are still holes in their defense, they're at least
getting the turnovers that they hadn't be getting in the past.
And to me, I feel like we are three weeks
into Jordan Love being back. This is the first game
back where he's not going to be facing a really
challenging defense at home.

Speaker 1 (24:52):
I e.

Speaker 4 (24:53):
Brian Flores and the Vikings. We saw what they did
in the second half when they made the adjustments and
were able to come back against the Viking.

Speaker 1 (25:00):
I agree with you. Whyse guys agree with you?

Speaker 2 (25:03):
Packers of the side, So Commanders plus six and a
half is my side. Here's why Lamar Jackson eats the NFC,
because you can't duplicate esthetically, stylistically what he does in practice,
except Washington can they have Lamar Jackson light, so they
see Lamar Jackson light in practice every day. I'm also

(25:24):
a believer until you prove otherwise. I'm going to believe
what my eyes tell me. Washington's really good, way too
good to give them six and a half. If they
wouldn't have been the league's tire fire for a decade,
you'd say this line's ridiculous. If anybody else was playing
this well for five weeks, any other team, maybe outside

(25:48):
of Carolina, there would be complete buy in. There's utter skepticism.
They're good, they have Lamar light. Washington's seen this at practice.
I'm taking the point Sharper square.

Speaker 1 (26:02):
So it's square.

Speaker 4 (26:04):
But when you look at the numbers here, the betting
tickets are on the Commanders. They are the fly high
team that everybody loves right now, there's no doubt about it.
But you can see the money is on the Ravens.
And when you have a split between tickets and money,
tickets represents the public. Money represents the Sharps, right, and

(26:30):
these guys have been looking to sell the Commanders, so
it's very possible they will continue to be wrong and
you are right right. Because they wanted to sell the
Commanders last week and they lost. They wanted to sell
the Commanders the week before and they lost. They are
going to keep doubling, tripling down on selling the Commanders
until they're eventually right. Matchup wise, this does play to

(26:53):
the Ravens strengths. They are a tremendous running team right now,
one of the best in the league, and they are
going against a terror terrible run defense, especially in early downs.
Now we've said this before the Ravens last year in
the AFC title game, if they had just run the ball,
they win that game. Instead, they put it in Lamar's hands.

(27:13):
So you have to hope that they actually go with
the game plan that will give them the best chance
to win. Historically, teams that are overachieving like the Commanders,
and when I say overachieving meeting they are covering the
point spread by about five points per game those teams
going forward in every game thereafter until there is enough

(27:34):
regression that it evens out cover it about a forty
three percent clip. This is what really worries Ravens. Betters
okay underdogs this year six plus points, eleven and eight
straight up sixteen to two to one against the spread.
And this is one of those weeks. We got a

(27:56):
few of these games. We got this one. We got
the Patriot, we got the Browns, we got the Eagles,
we got the Panthers, like and the Falcons like. It's
a more big spreads than we've had at any point
so far this season. But here is what's really scaring
Ravens backers. You could see this game. Ravens are up

(28:19):
by thirteen, twelve, eleven, ten, nine, eight, seven, any number
like that, and the back door is wide open, and
the Ravens pass defense is soft, and Jayden Daniels will
not quit.

Speaker 1 (28:35):
This Commander's team will not quit.

Speaker 4 (28:37):
They might not they might know they're not going to
win the game, but they might score that back door.
So it's a it's going to be a sweat. It
is not going to be a oh yeah, it's a blowout.
And by the middle of the third quarter, Ravens betters
feel like they can, you know, turn on a cooking show.

Speaker 2 (29:00):
Okay. One thing that almost guarantees consistency college or pro
football is a really good offensive line. You kind of
get the same Detroit team every weekend. People just don't
quite realize how good the New York Giants offensive line is.
That Seattle game wasn't close. I don't care what the

(29:22):
score was. Mike McDonald's team couldn't get them off the field.
Danny Dimes doesn't turn the ball over without Molik Neighbors
without Singletary, completely controlled the line of scrimmage. They're not
as good as Detroit, but Cincinnati can't stop anything. And

(29:44):
this very quietly because it's been so bad for so
many years. This Giant's O line reminds me of the
Giants D line. It controls most of the teams it plays.
I'm taking the three and a half points. New York
plus three and a half at home. Sharper square, totally sharp.

Speaker 4 (30:02):
I'm surprised you chose this one, not because I don't
have faith in your ability to be super sharp, because
you truly are a maven of the media, a master
of content, and a man who understands where the audience
is going and what they want to hear. But this
just felt like the kind of game you'd want to

(30:23):
ignore unless it's a primetime game.

Speaker 1 (30:26):
But you're one hundred percent right. The wise guys are
on the Giants.

Speaker 4 (30:31):
Here this line actually it opened at three and a half,
and like you can see in the Jews, the vague,
the commission, the way the bookmakers start to play with
those things.

Speaker 1 (30:41):
Normally the numbers at minus one ten.

Speaker 4 (30:43):
When it starts to go up minus one fifteen, minus
one twenty, that's basically them saying to you, all right,
it's going to move or the other side plus one
fifteen plus one twenty, this number is going to move
to three. And that's because the wise guys are buying
the hook the half of point for the Giants, because
they feel the same way you do. They think this

(31:03):
team has been balling out lately. Daniel Jones has been
playing much better. Brian Dayball has been calling great game
plans the past couple of weeks, and look like, go back,
what was it three weeks ago? They're playing the Commanders.
They don't score any touchdowns and like that's why they

(31:25):
lose that game. I know it's a weird thing to say, oh, look,
this team is better than you think, but one ball
bounces a different way, and the Commanders aren't even six
and a half point underdogs, they're more and no one's saying, oh,
the Giants really shouldn't be any more than the Giant.
They're saying the Giant should be any more than a
field goal against the Bengals at home. So that's that's

(31:47):
an interesting pick by you.

Speaker 2 (31:50):
So let's go to the best offensive line in football, Detroit.
So this line was at three and a half and
I said on the air on FS one, if it
comes down to three, I'm taking Detroit. So a couple things.
Dallas is the Arizona Cardinals or the Buffalo Bills of
the league. I'm not really sure what team I get,
just depends on the matchup and the mood I get

(32:10):
the same. And that's because Dallas has a very left tackle,
revolving door injuries. You don't know what they are with
their offensive line. It's matchup based. Detroit's a better team.
Detroit is a completely consistent team. Listen, they give up
yards they do on the back end. I mean, Gino
Smith had thirty eight first downs against them, and that

(32:33):
worries me. But Hutchison and the tackle, the left tackle
for Dallas, yikes. Yeah, I know it's a road favorite,
but at three sharper square, I like Detroit.

Speaker 4 (32:46):
Well, it's not sharp, right, Nobody in their right mind
is going to say as a professional better, yes, the
right side here is the road favorite and the public
side playing in Dallas. But you said something that is
so on point, and you talk about quarterbacks and bad

(33:10):
quarterbacks and good quarterbacks as being sort of a decision
maker for you. For me, more and more, it's becoming
about who controls the line of scrimmage because to me,
that is the most consistent and dependable way a team
can define performance and live up to expectations. Right there's
going to be some matchup issue at some point on

(33:33):
the edges, or running back may get hurt, a quarterback
is having a bad game. But offensive line, defensive line
consistency is pretty easy to mark.

Speaker 1 (33:44):
Lions their top five, top two.

Speaker 4 (33:48):
Dominant, not just as an offensive line but as a
defensive line. But when you look at their offensive line
across the board, like this is why this team is
a top five overall offensive team right now. And to me,
what's really fascinating is you look at the Jared Goff game.

Speaker 1 (34:07):
He went eighteen for eighteen, but.

Speaker 4 (34:09):
It wasn't Jared Goff going thirty five forty for four
hundred yards and four touchdowns working outside of the offense
because it was a you know, a shootout. Jared Goff
working within the confines of the offense. Ben Johnson calling
the great game. Dan Campbell clearly has said, we're not

(34:29):
ourselves these first few games. Let's get back to basics.
Football is a violent game. We are built to be violent.
So to me, every advanced metric that every geek can
think of favors the lightns here and every other metric.
When you look at the Cowboys and you shake it out,
it basically says their defense, especially against the run.

Speaker 1 (34:52):
Is trash. I don't know if the wise guys will
be with you. I know I will be.

Speaker 4 (34:57):
We're making an executive decision, Colin. We're going with the lines.

Speaker 2 (35:02):
Okay, the most obvious line of the week. I mean,
this is where I feel like this is the squarest
of the square lines, and I hate it. Atlanta plays
an unbelievable game. Everybody loves Kirk Cousins. It's a standalone game.
He throws for over five football fields. And now in
a division rivalry game, they go to Carolina, who's pretty

(35:22):
good but was humiliated and they have to give up
six points. The side is Carolina. It is a corner
of a corner TV game, But that to me was
the one, like that should be like a three, it's
a six. It's the Panther Sharper square.

Speaker 1 (35:38):
I mean, look, it's sharp. You have to and I'm
so glad you said it.

Speaker 4 (35:41):
Like I was afraid at the end when you're like,
give me the game I missed, or give me the
ugly game that I didn't mention, I was afraid I
was gonna have to bring this one up because look,
I'm so sick of having a bet on the Carolina
Panthers and the lines being so wrong and yet then
still being the wrong side. The Falcons have three wins

(36:02):
this season that have come by a combined nine points,
and they probably should have lost all those. In Week two,
they had a game winning two minute drive against the
Eagles when the Eagles had a ninety seven point six
percent win probability with less than two minutes remaining. Week
three game winning fifty eight yard field goal after the

(36:25):
Saints had an eighty four and a half percent win
probability with forty one seconds left. Week five overtime win,
Kirk Cousins throws for you know, half a thousand. The
Bucks had a ninety three percent win probability. With twenty
two seconds left, ninety three percent of the tickets are

(36:51):
on the Falcons, a nearly touchdown road favorite. Of course,
the Panthers are the side here. Here's why it's super
extra scary. The one thing the Panthers have been great
at this season top two in run blocking, they are

(37:12):
missing two key offensive linemen. And that's really why they
got humiliated against the Bears is because all of a sudden,
the one thing they were great at that the Bears
can't defend is the run, and they couldn't do it anymore.

Speaker 1 (37:24):
And that's also the same here.

Speaker 4 (37:27):
Can they run the ball against a weak rush defense
for the Falcons, that's going to be the deciding factor.

Speaker 1 (37:32):
But you still got to pull the trigger.

Speaker 2 (37:35):
Finally, give me a game I missed. It's usually an
ugly game because I really hit on the big ones.
Is there something I missed? He puts on the glasses,
by the way, for our podcast audience, let's get serious.

Speaker 1 (37:47):
This is serious.

Speaker 4 (37:47):
I'm gonna look at my notes because truly, you did
hit every game, and I hit.

Speaker 2 (37:51):
I mean I didn't touch the Steelers Raiders, I didn't
touch the Colts, you know, I haven't bet that. I
have not bet the Colts all year. They're getting three
on the road Tennessee. I just and the reason I
don't do it is I never know if Anthony Richardson
can get through a game, So I just I'm not
going to touch him.

Speaker 1 (38:06):
I think that's I think that's exactly right.

Speaker 4 (38:08):
And look what's interesting about that game, Just as in
a side the Colts, the Titans started off as the
favorites in that game as minus as a minus point favorites.
Then it flipped and all of a sudden, the Titans
got as low as.

Speaker 1 (38:21):
Plus one and a half.

Speaker 4 (38:23):
And then when all of a sudden the news came
out that Anthony Richardson might be playing, the line flipped
back to Tennessee being a two and a half point favorite.
Now it's up to three. So that game's a mess.
You want to stay away from games where the line
is flipping back and forth, back and forth. I don't

(38:43):
want to talk about this game, but every Wise guy
is on New England right.

Speaker 2 (38:48):
Well, no, that's Jmax Pick of the week. He said,
no Nico Collins, no Joe Mixon. By the way, they
could have easily lost the Buffalo game. They're off a
big win.

Speaker 1 (38:58):
It's and it's like they have New England's plus seven
at home.

Speaker 4 (39:02):
Yeah, New England's plus seven, and actually in a lot
of places the line is ticked down to six and
a half, which tells you that the wise guys are
on New England because the tickets in this game are
all on Houston. And look, I think that the Nico
Collins factor is important.

Speaker 1 (39:19):
C J.

Speaker 4 (39:19):
Shroud and this offense, they have not been very good
on first and second down, and it's putting them in
bad spots on third down and fourth down. His security
blanket has been Nico Collins, who has been a monster
this year, the best receiver in football. Now he's out.
The New England defense is not terrible, it's middle of
the road. Their offensive line is awful. But I actually

(39:43):
think that plays to some of the quarterback change, which
is Drake May He's going to be a one read,
two read, pull it and run athlete in this game, right,
and so it doesn't matter how bad the offensive line is.
Some people that say you're throwing this guy to the
Wolves kind of doesn't matter. He's going to be out
of the pocket, he's going to be running draws whatever,

(40:03):
it's going to be this New England team. It's been
playing teams tough, so the wise guys are on New
England here. I'm sorry, Yeah, I hate doing I have.

Speaker 2 (40:15):
To apologize to the audience for having to listen to
the breakdown.

Speaker 1 (40:18):
Oh yeah, yeah, it's so.

Speaker 4 (40:21):
I'm upset that I'm going to have to watch this game,
like I'm upset that I that it's honestly the game
I've bet the most done so far this week.

Speaker 1 (40:30):
And how about this.

Speaker 2 (40:32):
Let me throw you one college game. The college game
of the year is Oregon getting about a field goal.
It was like four, now it's down to three against
Ohio State. I think they could meet in the playoff.
I think Eugene they've won thirty four or thirty five
at home. Dylan Gabriel's having completing almost eighty percent of
his throws. They have their own line, right. I think
Ohio State's better, but I think putting kids. I mean,

(40:53):
if you go look at Ohio State against top ten teams,
they've actually not been very good the last three years.
I think I would take Oregon in the points sharper square.

Speaker 1 (41:02):
Yeah, I would too.

Speaker 4 (41:04):
I think that the quarterback play for Ohio State is eh.
You know, the reason why their receivers keep making so
many fantastic catches is because the throwers aren't always that good.
And you know, it's interesting. What did Nick Saban say
on game day? He's like, you spend twenty million, it
doesn't really matter. You got to spend the right twenty
million on the right guys. And I think this is

(41:26):
the beginning of a gauntlet for Ohio State. They spent
that twenty million at probably right before they're about to
have the hardest schedule that they have had in years
to get to a national championship contending position. I think
we all believe they'll make the playoff, but it's no guarantee.
You got Oregon, Ohio State Penn State two three four.

(41:48):
Like that big ten now is brutal, So I agree
with you.

Speaker 1 (41:54):
I like Oregon.

Speaker 2 (41:56):
Chad Milman CCO Action Network. All odds provided by Draft
Thanks Buddy.

Speaker 1 (42:01):
Talk to you soon man.

Speaker 4 (42:05):
The volume.

Speaker 2 (42:07):
Thanks so much for listening. If you've enjoyed the podcast,
take a moment, rate and review
Advertise With Us

Hosts And Creators

Colin Cowherd

Colin Cowherd

Jason McIntyre

Jason McIntyre

Popular Podcasts

1. On Purpose with Jay Shetty

1. On Purpose with Jay Shetty

I’m Jay Shetty host of On Purpose the worlds #1 Mental Health podcast and I’m so grateful you found us. I started this podcast 5 years ago to invite you into conversations and workshops that are designed to help make you happier, healthier and more healed. I believe that when you (yes you) feel seen, heard and understood you’re able to deal with relationship struggles, work challenges and life’s ups and downs with more ease and grace. I interview experts, celebrities, thought leaders and athletes so that we can grow our mindset, build better habits and uncover a side of them we’ve never seen before. New episodes every Monday and Friday. Your support means the world to me and I don’t take it for granted — click the follow button and leave a review to help us spread the love with On Purpose. I can’t wait for you to listen to your first or 500th episode!

2. Las Culturistas with Matt Rogers and Bowen Yang

2. Las Culturistas with Matt Rogers and Bowen Yang

Ding dong! Join your culture consultants, Matt Rogers and Bowen Yang, on an unforgettable journey into the beating heart of CULTURE. Alongside sizzling special guests, they GET INTO the hottest pop-culture moments of the day and the formative cultural experiences that turned them into Culturistas. Produced by the Big Money Players Network and iHeartRadio.

3. The Joe Rogan Experience

3. The Joe Rogan Experience

The official podcast of comedian Joe Rogan.

Music, radio and podcasts, all free. Listen online or download the iHeart App.

Connect

© 2024 iHeartMedia, Inc.