September 13, 2024 • 32 mins
Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network, joins Colin for a round of “Sharp or Square,” to help provide Colin with the sharpest betting advice week two of the NFL season!
3:45 - Raiders vs. Ravens
5:45 49ers vs. Vikings
8:30 - Jets vs. Titans
12:00 - Broncos vs. Steelers
14:45 - Falcons vs. Eagles
17:00 - Giants vs. Commanders
25:00 - Texans vs. Bears
28:30 - Lions vs. Bucs
31:45 - Cowboys vs. Saints
33:00 - Packers vs. Colts
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Episode Transcript
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(01:09):
time for Sharper Square, Chad Milman, CEEO Action Network. All
odds provided by DraftKings. So I was a Will Levis
bonehead play from going two too and one. So I
was overjoyed. I actually thought, I mean, I was wrong
on the Carolina side, but other than that, I felt
pretty good about it.
Speaker 1 (01:27):
I could go in.
Speaker 2 (01:28):
An order of importance, but I was thinking about this.
I am above going in order. I just give you
my plays and you dissect them. So let's just start
with a team that is this close to beating Kansas
City arrowhead and I think the Chiefs are a better
version of last year's Super Bowl champ Baltimore. I think
the Raiders are bad, and I don't think they're terribly
well coached. I mean the fact that the only way
(01:55):
they'll win this physicality, and the Chargers were more physical.
They beat them at their only game. I think Baltimore's
really good. I don't think Lamar will run sixteen times
on average. I think Kansas City brings that out of him.
It's a huge number. I hate doing that. I think
Baltimore's pissed. I'm going to swallow the eight and a
half Sharper square, so.
Speaker 3 (02:14):
It's square, but you're not going to find a ton
of guys who when they're doing this are excited about
betting the Raiders. You mentioned Carolina, Right, I was on
Carolina last week too. The wise guys will be on
Carolina again this week at six and a half point underdogs,
in the same way they're going to be on the Raiders,
which started at nine and a half, got up to ten,
(02:35):
and then was bet down to nine and a half,
than nine, and now eight and a half. So it's
getting closer to a number that I think at some
point the wise guys will come back in on Baltimore.
But at this big of a number, they're just betting
the number, and this early in the season, everything tells
you that you are playing against the over reaction. Right,
everyone saw the same thing you did. The Ravens come
(02:57):
within a toenail of tying the chief Yiefs at Arrowhead
in a massive game against the Chiefs team that looks
like he can break every rule of betting that exists
in the universe. Right, the Raiders people were high on
they got crushed and they didn't look very good doing it.
And Antonio Peers made terrible, terrible decisions. I read in
the Athletic that that decision he made on fourth down
(03:21):
in his own territory. It was the first time a
coach had been down and in his own territory in
the fourth quarter and punted in eight years. It's one
of the most cowardly calls that has been made in
the past eight years. And you could see him on camera.
There's the videos of him saying, should I be going
for this right now? So there's a sentiment that people
(03:41):
are overreacting to the bad coaching, the bad play, and
the great play by the Ravens.
Speaker 1 (03:47):
So yes, the wise guys are going to be on
the Raiders.
Speaker 2 (03:50):
So let me take an underdog. Minnesota at home against
the forty nine ers San Francisco in a short week,
played virtually a perfect football game. Even when you're as
good as the Niners, that's very hard to do back
to back. Pretty always feels like he's better at home.
Minnesota will negate some of the pass rush because they're
great at left tackle. They're also good at running back,
tight end, wide receiver, and they can bring a little heat.
(04:13):
I think Minnesota is actually I said this before the season.
If they finished fourth, they will be the greatest fourth
place team in the history of the league. They've got
a lot of good players. They have a brilliant coach,
really really sharp guy. He reminds me of Kevin Stefanski
before he started winning Coach of the Year. He's just
he's operating at a different level. This was at six.
At one point, I think I take the Vikings five
(04:33):
and a half. Sharper square wise. Guys are taking the
Vikings at five and a half. They took him at six.
They still like the Vikings.
Speaker 3 (04:39):
I got to tell you I was leaning Niners in
this game, and part of it is Kyle Shanahan is
so good. You and I have talked about this, like,
he does not get concerned when he's missing pieces. It
actually I think inspires him to be more creative. And
he's also been very good on short weeks on the
road eight and two during his career, one of the
(05:02):
four best coaches in the past five years on short
weeks when he's a favorite on the road. That said,
I think Kevin O'Connell is starting to get a lot
more credit as a coach than people wanted to give him.
You know, two years ago, three years ago, it was
Brian Dayball and Kevin O'Connell.
Speaker 1 (05:18):
They were neck and neck for Rookie of the Year. Coaching.
Speaker 3 (05:20):
They both had teams that were excellent in one score
games they played each other in the playoffs. The Giants
win in Minnesota, Brian day Ball wins Coach of the Year.
He's getting more credited as the best coach right and
Kevin O'Connell had a similar year. And then last year
did wonders when Kirk Cousins went down and Brian Dayball's
team is cratering when their top quarterback goes down. Then
(05:41):
we see what happens last week. A bad quarterback for
the Giants, a historically bad quarterback in Sam Darnold, and
he has a Cinderella like first half ten for ten
on his first ten passes with a touchdown, a ninety
nine yard touchdown drive that ends with a fourth down
pass like touchdownass to Jehman Jefferson, Kevin O'Connell is a
very good coach, and I think that's another reason why
(06:02):
the why guys are in their vikings.
Speaker 2 (06:03):
So there's two things that I look at with the
Jets in this heightens when you play a standalone game,
and the feeling is you're humiliated physically, like the Jets
were pushed around the field eight straight scoring drives by
San Francisco. That is so embarrassing for Robert Sama. That
(06:25):
was an embarrassing physical performance. Now they go to potentially
one of the worst offenses in the league. For a quarterback,
I don't think him play. I don't think Will Levis
can play. I don't think he's fluid enough. I think
his judgment's bad. This is what I saw on the SEC.
That's the first part. The second part is San Francisco
makes everybody. So does Andy Reid and McVeigh. They make
(06:47):
a lot of people look bad. In the Week one,
I think the Jets are actually a pretty good football team.
When this number got up to four, Now I sound
like such a square on this, but four is an
interesting number. Here's how I view four. I like favorites
four because the market doesn't want to create force. They'd
rather you be three to three and a half. When
the market has to go to four, their signaling okay,
it is just a better team. This started for the
(07:10):
Jets for a better team. They're pissed. I don't think
Will Levis can play. Home Field's never met anything in Nashville.
I know it's square. I take the Jets minus three
and a half.
Speaker 3 (07:21):
Well, otherwise guys like the Titans and they're kind of
holding their nose here. There's a couple things in play,
and that number four is really important, and I'm glad
you bring it up, and we'll do that in the
last part of my soliloquy here. The Jets had were
physically dominated totally. Not just that their defense, which is
(07:43):
supposed to be their strength, as you noted, eh straight
scoring drives. Their defensive line was destroyed by Shanahan's blocking
scheme and their run scheme, and they could not get
to Purty, who's just incredibly nifty in the pocket. Bill
Callahan showed last week that he can do something really
interesting with this Titans offensive line from a running perspective.
(08:06):
You know, Bill Callahan, who is Brian Callahan's father, legendary
offensive line coach, left the Browns this past season to
go work with his son revamp the Titans offensive line.
The Titans defense did not give up a touchdown to
the Bears, right like the Bears were scoring on special
teams and they were scoring on defense because Will Levis,
(08:26):
as you said, is a terrible quarterback. The wise guys
are betting the number here. The four is key teams
that open at four or higher at home in weeks
one and two sixty percent against the spread the last
twenty years, teams that open at four or higher at
home after losing their last game against the spread, which
(08:48):
the text with the Titans did sixty four percent since
twenty twenty one. More stat that is very interesting. The
Jets were dominated on Monday night, and now of a
defense that was on the field for a ton of
plays going back short week to be against another really
physical team. That's what the Titans want to be. Teams
(09:09):
with fewer than twenty five minutes of possession in Week
one six and twenty five against the spread in Week two,
that's nineteen percent the jtal So look, I'm with you,
like this isn't going to be one of my five
best plays because I don't trust Will Levis and it's
and it's it's becoming clear in this league there is
(09:31):
such a delta between competent quarterbacking and really good quarterbacking
and not it's becoming too much of a hindrance for
teams where despite all these numbers that go back, you're
gonna have to play the quarterback in some situations. And
this to me is a scary spot. The Wise guys
aren't scared. They bet the Titans. I'm a little scared.
Speaker 2 (09:52):
I want to take Denver plus two and a half
against the Steelers, and here's what, Thank god, I thought
it was a really tough spot for both Nicks in
the opener loud stadium. You don't really know the defense.
You have to go watch Baltimore. Mike McDonald also, Seattle's
got elite corners, and you're a rookie. They asked him
(10:12):
to throw forty two times. He had one terrible pick.
He's more mobile and anybody thinks. And I had another
another ex player who I respect, tell me this week
he's going to be the best rookie quarterback. He may
not be the best year two three, four, he's going
to have the best year. The rest of them have
defensive coaches. I think Denver wins here. They've always been
(10:35):
good at home. I think it's a coaching mismatch. I
think Peyton's a brilliant coach. I like the Steelers as dogs,
not his favorites. Denver plus the point Sharper square.
Speaker 3 (10:43):
One hundred percent, ding ding ding ding Ding. Wise guys
love the Broncos. Here's probably going to take a little
piece of the Broncos on the money line as well.
Great spot for bow Nicks. I think the Wise guys
they love Seattle. They're really impressed with Seattle's defense, so
love Mike mcd ronald and what he can do with
that team. And I think the Wise guys were also
really impressed with how much better the Broncos played last
(11:07):
year this last week as a team versus what they
looked like a year ago. And defensively true, but I
think they were excited about bon Nicks.
Speaker 1 (11:15):
And if you watch the game back and.
Speaker 3 (11:18):
We heard this on the favorites from scouts and from
professionals who all watch a lot of film, bo Nicks
recognizes he missed some easy throws and that's because he
was still getting to know the pace of the game.
They liked the way he was a gamer. They liked
the way the Broncos stayed in that game. They basically
made the game a push. They backdoor pushed in that game.
(11:41):
Seattle was a six point favorite, So there's a lot
of sentiment that this is the right side. The line
moved from three to.
Speaker 1 (11:45):
Two and a half.
Speaker 3 (11:46):
And I will say, you excited about Tomlin Tomlin is
the greatest underdog coach possibly in the history of the
game the past twenty years for sure. Not just great
as an underdog, great as an underdog winning outright. He
is just as bad when he is a favorite forty
one twenty eight and one against spread as a road
dog in his career thirty two forty and two as
(12:08):
a road favorite, so it's almost completely flipped right. And
when he opens as a favorite of three or more
on the road thirty eight percent against the spread, So
I would say you're on the right side. Also, we've
talked about this on the show. You know, we do
this thing called the Luck Rankings at Action that sort
of takes the noise out of all the games and
tells you what the expected score would have been based
(12:30):
on the stats and if you didn't have the flukiness
and things like that, which there's always regression when there's flukiness.
Broncos are one of the three games that has the
highest sort of delta between lucky and unlucky in the
Steelers in the and the Broncos.
Speaker 1 (12:45):
So we like the Broncos.
Speaker 2 (12:46):
Here, I'll give you another underdog. I like Falcons plus
six and a half. I worry about Kirk cousins immobility.
But I thought Atlanta was at a big coaching disadvantage
when they faced the Steelers because Arthur Smith knew their
entire roster and it was Kirk cousins first game back
off an injury. He was very hesitant, a little like
if you looked at Aaron Rodgers passing stats. In the
(13:07):
first game he moved, he had twenty one passes, nineteen
to the left. He was not going to throw blind
behind him. He wanted to see the left side of
the field. He didn't want to get hit from behind.
And Aaron's great, but that first game back off the accident,
they're all hesitant. Kirk was hesitant. Philadelphia's defense is not good.
(13:29):
They spend money on it, they drafted. They were giving
up seven yards of play to green Bay and green
Bay's good. But young Atlanta's got players. I think they
play really well. I know Kirk in big standalone games
isn't great. Six and a half's a ton. I would
take Atlanta here, sharper.
Speaker 3 (13:46):
Square totally sharp wise guys like the Falcons here. I'm
a little hesitant personally, haven't really laid into this game yet,
but there's a lot of factors that go in the
direction of what you're talking about. I think the biggest
concern anybody has. It wasn't just that Kirk Cousins was hesitant.
There were throws where it looked like he didn't want
(14:07):
to plant off his injured achilles, and so he was
short hopping throws that looked like he was throwing off
of one leg. Right, So I think that was the
bigger concern, and maybe after a full game he's a
little more comfortable, you know. I think that what's interesting
here is to the Falcons advantage their interior line, especially
(14:30):
at center and right guard. Those are two of the
best players at their positions in the NFL. The strength
of the Eagles is their interior pressure, not their edges.
The strength of the Steelers was their edges. So just
sort of it's not really intuitive, but the way the
Falcons play might mitigate the Eagles' greatest advantage defensively.
Speaker 1 (14:52):
So a lot of wise guys are on the on
the Falcons here.
Speaker 2 (14:55):
I'm going to take one more underdog Giants plus one
and a half at the Commanders. Daniel Jones. Actually, this
is a vomit game that nobody wants to watch, But
I did think. I do think Brian Davis a really
good coach, and I thought they were bad in the
first series. Washington was just outplayed by a better quarterback
and a better team. The Giants were awful. It looked
like they hadn't practiced. They've actually had. Daniel Jones's five
(15:18):
to one and one against Washington, when he faces a
team that's his equal, he can compete. There's no way
I'm giving any you know, I'm taking any points I
get in this game. Giants plus one and a half,
mostly unwatchable, Sharper Square.
Speaker 3 (15:32):
Totally sharp. That is the Corner TV game of the week, Kylin.
It is the game nobody wants to watch unless you
are betting it. The wise guys will be on the Giants,
mainly for the reasons you just said. Dave Ball has
basically done incredibly well against the Commanders. Daniel Jones has
done well against the Commanders. There's always going to be
(15:52):
overreaction in Week two, and obviously the wise guys or
the fans are overjoyed with what they saw from Jaden Daniels. Right,
his Rookie of the Year odds for offense shrink people
were piling in on him for Rookie of the Year
because of how he played, and he was dynamic and
he made decent enough throws, but also the running ability
(16:15):
that is not a recipe that they can sustain, and
it also leads to overreaction in the market. So the
book maker shaded the number a little bit, and really
this game should be closer to pick. So you're getting
about a point a half of value because people are
so against the Giants and they loved what they saw
from the commanders.
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Speaker 1 (18:06):
Here's a favorite I like.
Speaker 2 (18:09):
Sometimes I feel that you can get ahead of the
market for about a week to two. It happens more
in college because there's so many games on TV. It's
harder for bookmakers. Sometimes you just if you're a regional
better and you follow the PAC twelve. I can remember
years ago getting on an Oregon State team and they
I knew their personnel really well, and I watched their
(18:30):
games and had a good friend up there, and it happened.
Sometimes it doesn't happen a lot in the pros. I'm
not so sure. We're not three or four weeks away
from saying CJ. Stroud's the third best quarterback in the league.
I think he's insane. I mean Greg co Sell on
my show is like he's making throws that almost nobody
in the planet can make, like Stafford Burrough Mahomes. Yes,
(18:52):
I think I had somebody that was at Friday's Bears
practice before the game saying the ball was on the
ground more than they'd ever seen it. Caylebby's really struggling.
Romadunze may not play, Keenan Allen may not play. I
think CJ. Stroud is he is really something. I mean
(19:15):
he is that second game he played I think it
was Baltimore in his career. I was like, wait a minute,
this is Baltimore. What is he doing. I think this
could be ugly. I think the Texans are going to win.
I thought it would. When I guess the line on this,
I thought it would be closer to six and a half, seven,
seven and a half. At six, I think i'd take
the text in Sharper square.
Speaker 1 (19:35):
So look, it's a little bit square.
Speaker 3 (19:37):
The reason it's at six is because it opened at
six and a half, and the wise guys definitely felt
that was inflated for exactly the reasons you just said.
You know, obviously, We've talked about this. I'm from Chicago.
Speaker 1 (19:49):
I love the Bears.
Speaker 3 (19:50):
I will have a text chain on Sundays with all
my guys from Chicago. I can't even respond because they
come in so fast, and I'm so anxious about all
the other bets for me, like, I don't want to
talk to anybody, right, forty five texts in the first
half of that Bears game, we thought the Bears had
already broken. Caleb Williams like he was pushing the ball.
(20:12):
He wasn't throwing the ball, he was looking at his
first read and then taking off. He was inaccurate. He
was throwing too early on deep passes because he already realized,
oh my god, my offensive line is crap and I
can't outrun these defensive linemen. So we already looked like
it was over right, like we've seen it as Bear
stands a thousand times.
Speaker 1 (20:31):
Obviously we know that's not the case.
Speaker 3 (20:33):
But you couple that and how bad he looked in
the fact the Bears needed special teams in defense to
beat the Titans with how good CJ.
Speaker 1 (20:41):
Stroud look. He made a throw.
Speaker 3 (20:44):
On a third down, rolling right across his body middle
of the field, third and nineteen.
Speaker 1 (20:52):
Got it.
Speaker 3 (20:52):
It's the kind of throw you can only make if
you are an other world talent. We had what third
and eleven, third and twelve to seal the game, and
he at Nico Collins on a dart where Nico Collins
caught it with an inch of space before the sideline
got a knee down. That ends the game, right, Like CJ.
(21:13):
Shroud is something special, But that's why the line was
too high. So at six it's about where it's supposed
to be. You're not getting much of an advantage, might
even be a little bit high still at six and
a half.
Speaker 1 (21:23):
The wise guys like it. So you're playing a bad number.
Speaker 2 (21:26):
Okay, a game every week. I want you to teach
me and the audience a lesson. I don't get the number.
So the Lions go to overtime, that's not good. Generally,
I stay away from teams that go to overtime. You know,
seven to ten more plays the Lions. Clearly Baker played
his best game as a pro. This line is seven
(21:49):
and a half. I still think without Puka Nakua and
three backup offensive linemen, the Rams moved the ball up
and down the field in the second half, did everything
then wanted to do. Blake Korham didn't even play Tyler Higbe.
Their tight end is out.
Speaker 1 (22:04):
They were.
Speaker 2 (22:05):
It was just Cooper Cup, Matt Stafford and McVeigh and backups,
and they move up and down the field. Baker's got
legitimate receivers. I don't understand the number. You know to
me before, Why explain how Detroit is seven and a half?
What's the side here?
Speaker 3 (22:22):
Well, look that the Lions, according to a lot of
power ratings, should be bigger favorites. Like I love the
Lions in this spot and that is a massive number
to bet.
Speaker 2 (22:36):
It is a quarterback in Baker, it is.
Speaker 1 (22:39):
Well, here's the thing.
Speaker 3 (22:41):
I think that there's a couple of things going on.
Number One, on the on the Buck side, they are
getting overvalued because Baker was so good in that opening game, right,
But you were great against a rebuilding team, and the
expectations for the Bucks for a lot of people were
kind of low, and from a public point of view,
they've now exceeded them. And Baker looked unbeatable, but he
(23:06):
played against the team with a defensive line that is
basically starting from scratch, against a defense that doesn't have
great defensive backs, so he could kind of have his way.
The Rams are like their game plan, which they had
five months to build coming off a playoff game. They
(23:27):
were so tuned in and they were still losing seventeen
to three, and they needed a couple penalties to get
themselves back in a position. And yes, they were moving
the ball up and down the field because their offensive
line was terrible, but it was really passing the ball
and what they did the Rams was brilliant. Matthew Stafford
one step drop, first redthrow. Aden Hutchinson was in his
(23:51):
grill every single play, even when Matthew Stafford was throwing
it with after about a second and a half, right,
Baker is not that a player. Baker is not as
sort of efficient with when he drops back and getting
to his first receiver. And I think the Lions, and
we saw this in the overtime, they are so physically dominant.
(24:15):
They're playing at home. Dan Campbell is the best coach
against the spread the past five years, Jared Goff twenty
six and nine against the spread. Indoors like, this is
a this is a really good team. I think this
is the second best roster in the NFC. You could
argue the Niners are the best. The Lions showed something.
(24:37):
They're a physically dominant team. It is not about the edges,
It is not about Dan Campbell and sort of going
for it. Their offensive defensive line are fierce. So I
like the Lions there. I think they are going to
blow this team away.
Speaker 2 (24:52):
Okay, I always ask you for a game I missed
a game you feel strongly about. It's often an unwatchable,
egregiously bad television product. But I already gave you that
with the Giants in Washington. So what say you?
Speaker 1 (25:04):
Well, look, I do like another favorite.
Speaker 3 (25:06):
It's a little chalky for me, but I do like
the Cowboys against the Saints. I think, you know, Mike
McCarthy and Dak Prescott, they are juggernauts during the regular season,
they are juggernauts as big favorites at home.
Speaker 1 (25:20):
I am not a fan of the Saints.
Speaker 3 (25:22):
I think they played a bad Carolina team and got
in the exact right position. But Dak is a favorite
at home. Fifteen and nine against the spread. He's a
good yeah, past three years as a favorite of six
or more in his career, thirty one, thirteen and one.
That's right, Like, he's just great in this spot. And
(25:45):
so I like to I am on the side of
the Cowboys here. I think anything under seven you're getting
a good number. Here's the game that a lot of
wise guys have been talking about and has had one
of the biggest moves, and it makes me sick to
my stomach, but we're going to bet it.
Speaker 1 (26:02):
Green Bay Packers.
Speaker 2 (26:05):
What if Malik Willis plays?
Speaker 3 (26:07):
I know, I know, I don't know what to tell you,
but like, that's that's the game everybody is talking about. Look,
this game was at three and a half. It went
down to three. Now there's some places where it's two
and a half. That is not the squares coming in
and betting on the Packers. That is the wise guys
coming in. And like I think, I think there's a
(26:30):
couple of things. One the swing, the Packers were in
what's called the look aheadline, so the line that was
set before last week's games, the Packers were four and
a half point favorites with Malik Willis, they opened US
three and a half point underdogs. That's an eight point swing.
(26:52):
Patrick Mahomes is worth eight points against the point spread.
And the way that guy has figured this out is
they take how much better is he than his backup?
It's not just about what would the line be if
he's not playing if what would the line be if
his backup is playing? Right, So, Jordan Love, as good
as he is, is not an eight point swing kind
(27:15):
of generator when it comes to quarterback play. So they
think there was a little bit of inflation in the
way that they reopen the line from three and a half,
which is why I got bet down. But also there
are some on the field elements here. Number one, Malik Willis,
if he knows anybody, it's the cults right. For the
past couple of years, he's had to prepare for the
Colts backup quarterbacks when they are playing in their first
(27:42):
game fifty against the spread the past three seasons. There
is some sort of overreaction in the market that it
offers a little bit of value. And then just look
on the field, like the Colts defensive secondary is in trouble.
They were not great this past week against the Texans.
They're banged up. I mentioned the Jets and they're twenty
(28:05):
five points twenty five minutes of possession. The other team
that this applies to from the past week the Indianapolis Colts.
So that's another factor to look at. Matt Lafleor. I
just said, Dan Campbell best coach past five years against spread,
Matt Lafleur second best spread against the spread.
Speaker 1 (28:24):
So a lot of.
Speaker 3 (28:26):
Indicators here that are leading people to bet the Packers.
To hold your nose, bet the number kind of thing.
If you can get the three, I wouldn't say take
it at two.
Speaker 1 (28:35):
And a half.
Speaker 2 (28:37):
Chad Millman, c CEO Action Network All Odds provided by DraftKings.
He's an Oxford, Mississippi now Celebrannial Friend's new book right, Thompson.
So it's supposed to be a bourbon town. That's what
I'm not a bourbon drinker. It's supposed to be a
bourbon town. Can you validate that or verify that.
Speaker 3 (28:55):
I can validate that I did have a bunch of
bourbons last night. I'll tell you a funny story. I
got back to my hotel. We were a bunch of
us were at Right's house hanging out. And you know
you've interviewed Right.
Speaker 1 (29:08):
He is the.
Speaker 3 (29:09):
Quintessential Southern personality, great voice, drips accent like and he
is a Mississippian and he's got this town wired. And
so we're hanging out his house and starts with barbecue dinner,
and then it's a few drinks, and then it's a
few more drinks, and then it's like after midnight and
we're still sitting in the same place, and it's beautiful
(29:30):
outside and we're sitting on bourbons. And I get back
to my hotel and you know how in hotels, like
there's eight different lights and eight different light switches. You're
not used to like the layout right, maddening. And so
when I take out my contacts, I'm legally blind, Like
I can't see anything.
Speaker 1 (29:46):
I need to feel the room.
Speaker 3 (29:48):
And I realized I took out my contacts and I
hadn't turned off all the lights. So I had to
get like nose to the wall to find the light switches.
Found the light switch for the hallway, found the light
switch for the light behind it TV, found the light
switch for the bathroom. Like felt around and got to
the desk lights the you know, the side table lights
by the bed. Could not find the light switch for
(30:10):
the overhead light. Like, I'm in the wall, cannot find out.
I go back to all the other light switches. I'm
putting them up and down. Cannot find it. I had
to do the most embarrassing thing. I called the front desk.
I'm like, I know, Oxford's a crazy town. I promise
you I'm not so far gone. I'm gonna forget this.
In the morning, I cannot find the light switch for
(30:32):
my overhead light. And he goes, Okay, what do you
want me to do? I'm like, do you have any
idea where the light switches are.
Speaker 1 (30:39):
In my room? He goes, what room are you in?
Speaker 3 (30:43):
I go three twenty five? He goes, all right, let
me think about it. He goes now, and I don't
have anything down here that maps it. I was about
to see it him again. It's after midnight. There's only
one guy in the desk. He can't leave, but I'm
about to see him. Any chance you can come up
to my room and check out where the lights are.
And then as I was about to say it, I'm like,
that's the most sketchy thing that you could possibly say
(31:06):
after midnight to a god work in the front desk.
Speaker 1 (31:10):
I put the I said, you know what, I'll figure
it out.
Speaker 3 (31:11):
I put the phone down and I say to myself,
I'm like, I'm just I'm just gonna have to sleep
with the light on, like I don't know what else
to do. And then I gave myself a new Rockney.
I'm like, Milman, you're gonna find this light switch. You
can find this light switch again. I'm hands on the wall,
feeling it around, feeling around. Finally I get to the thermostat.
(31:32):
It is directly next to the thermostat. It looks like
the thermostat found the light switch, turned it off. Felt
full relief. Tripped on my way to the bed because
I couldn't see anything anymore. But I did find that
light switch. And I didn't insult anybody on the way.
Speaker 2 (31:48):
Yeah, that's that would have been a woman at the
front desk. That's a lawsuit.
Speaker 1 (31:52):
Yeah, I come.
Speaker 3 (31:57):
Burn spread clearly. It's so good I cannot find a
light scratch.
Speaker 2 (32:02):
All right, I'm gonna bounce back.
Speaker 1 (32:04):
Good seeing anybody, good, seeing you too, brother, I'll see
you later.
Speaker 2 (32:09):
The volume
The volume.
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(01:09):
time for Sharper Square, Chad Milman, CEEO Action Network. All
odds provided by DraftKings. So I was a Will Levis
bonehead play from going two too and one. So I
was overjoyed. I actually thought, I mean, I was wrong
on the Carolina side, but other than that, I felt
pretty good about it.
Speaker 1 (01:27):
I could go in.
Speaker 2 (01:28):
An order of importance, but I was thinking about this.
I am above going in order. I just give you
my plays and you dissect them. So let's just start
with a team that is this close to beating Kansas
City arrowhead and I think the Chiefs are a better
version of last year's Super Bowl champ Baltimore. I think
the Raiders are bad, and I don't think they're terribly
well coached. I mean the fact that the only way
(01:55):
they'll win this physicality, and the Chargers were more physical.
They beat them at their only game. I think Baltimore's
really good. I don't think Lamar will run sixteen times
on average. I think Kansas City brings that out of him.
It's a huge number. I hate doing that. I think
Baltimore's pissed. I'm going to swallow the eight and a
half Sharper square, so.
Speaker 3 (02:14):
It's square, but you're not going to find a ton
of guys who when they're doing this are excited about
betting the Raiders. You mentioned Carolina, Right, I was on
Carolina last week too. The wise guys will be on
Carolina again this week at six and a half point underdogs,
in the same way they're going to be on the Raiders,
which started at nine and a half, got up to ten,
(02:35):
and then was bet down to nine and a half,
than nine, and now eight and a half. So it's
getting closer to a number that I think at some
point the wise guys will come back in on Baltimore.
But at this big of a number, they're just betting
the number, and this early in the season, everything tells
you that you are playing against the over reaction. Right,
everyone saw the same thing you did. The Ravens come
(02:57):
within a toenail of tying the chief Yiefs at Arrowhead
in a massive game against the Chiefs team that looks
like he can break every rule of betting that exists
in the universe. Right, the Raiders people were high on
they got crushed and they didn't look very good doing it.
And Antonio Peers made terrible, terrible decisions. I read in
the Athletic that that decision he made on fourth down
(03:21):
in his own territory. It was the first time a
coach had been down and in his own territory in
the fourth quarter and punted in eight years. It's one
of the most cowardly calls that has been made in
the past eight years. And you could see him on camera.
There's the videos of him saying, should I be going
for this right now? So there's a sentiment that people
(03:41):
are overreacting to the bad coaching, the bad play, and
the great play by the Ravens.
Speaker 1 (03:47):
So yes, the wise guys are going to be on
the Raiders.
Speaker 2 (03:50):
So let me take an underdog. Minnesota at home against
the forty nine ers San Francisco in a short week,
played virtually a perfect football game. Even when you're as
good as the Niners, that's very hard to do back
to back. Pretty always feels like he's better at home.
Minnesota will negate some of the pass rush because they're
great at left tackle. They're also good at running back,
tight end, wide receiver, and they can bring a little heat.
(04:13):
I think Minnesota is actually I said this before the season.
If they finished fourth, they will be the greatest fourth
place team in the history of the league. They've got
a lot of good players. They have a brilliant coach,
really really sharp guy. He reminds me of Kevin Stefanski
before he started winning Coach of the Year. He's just
he's operating at a different level. This was at six.
At one point, I think I take the Vikings five
(04:33):
and a half. Sharper square wise. Guys are taking the
Vikings at five and a half. They took him at six.
They still like the Vikings.
Speaker 3 (04:39):
I got to tell you I was leaning Niners in
this game, and part of it is Kyle Shanahan is
so good. You and I have talked about this, like,
he does not get concerned when he's missing pieces. It
actually I think inspires him to be more creative. And
he's also been very good on short weeks on the
road eight and two during his career, one of the
(05:02):
four best coaches in the past five years on short
weeks when he's a favorite on the road. That said,
I think Kevin O'Connell is starting to get a lot
more credit as a coach than people wanted to give him.
You know, two years ago, three years ago, it was
Brian Dayball and Kevin O'Connell.
Speaker 1 (05:18):
They were neck and neck for Rookie of the Year. Coaching.
Speaker 3 (05:20):
They both had teams that were excellent in one score
games they played each other in the playoffs. The Giants
win in Minnesota, Brian day Ball wins Coach of the Year.
He's getting more credited as the best coach right and
Kevin O'Connell had a similar year. And then last year
did wonders when Kirk Cousins went down and Brian Dayball's
team is cratering when their top quarterback goes down. Then
(05:41):
we see what happens last week. A bad quarterback for
the Giants, a historically bad quarterback in Sam Darnold, and
he has a Cinderella like first half ten for ten
on his first ten passes with a touchdown, a ninety
nine yard touchdown drive that ends with a fourth down
pass like touchdownass to Jehman Jefferson, Kevin O'Connell is a
very good coach, and I think that's another reason why
(06:02):
the why guys are in their vikings.
Speaker 2 (06:03):
So there's two things that I look at with the
Jets in this heightens when you play a standalone game,
and the feeling is you're humiliated physically, like the Jets
were pushed around the field eight straight scoring drives by
San Francisco. That is so embarrassing for Robert Sama. That
(06:25):
was an embarrassing physical performance. Now they go to potentially
one of the worst offenses in the league. For a quarterback,
I don't think him play. I don't think Will Levis
can play. I don't think he's fluid enough. I think
his judgment's bad. This is what I saw on the SEC.
That's the first part. The second part is San Francisco
makes everybody. So does Andy Reid and McVeigh. They make
(06:47):
a lot of people look bad. In the Week one,
I think the Jets are actually a pretty good football team.
When this number got up to four, Now I sound
like such a square on this, but four is an
interesting number. Here's how I view four. I like favorites
four because the market doesn't want to create force. They'd
rather you be three to three and a half. When
the market has to go to four, their signaling okay,
it is just a better team. This started for the
(07:10):
Jets for a better team. They're pissed. I don't think
Will Levis can play. Home Field's never met anything in Nashville.
I know it's square. I take the Jets minus three
and a half.
Speaker 3 (07:21):
Well, otherwise guys like the Titans and they're kind of
holding their nose here. There's a couple things in play,
and that number four is really important, and I'm glad
you bring it up, and we'll do that in the
last part of my soliloquy here. The Jets had were
physically dominated totally. Not just that their defense, which is
(07:43):
supposed to be their strength, as you noted, eh straight
scoring drives. Their defensive line was destroyed by Shanahan's blocking
scheme and their run scheme, and they could not get
to Purty, who's just incredibly nifty in the pocket. Bill
Callahan showed last week that he can do something really
interesting with this Titans offensive line from a running perspective.
(08:06):
You know, Bill Callahan, who is Brian Callahan's father, legendary
offensive line coach, left the Browns this past season to
go work with his son revamp the Titans offensive line.
The Titans defense did not give up a touchdown to
the Bears, right like the Bears were scoring on special
teams and they were scoring on defense because Will Levis,
(08:26):
as you said, is a terrible quarterback. The wise guys
are betting the number here. The four is key teams
that open at four or higher at home in weeks
one and two sixty percent against the spread the last
twenty years, teams that open at four or higher at
home after losing their last game against the spread, which
(08:48):
the text with the Titans did sixty four percent since
twenty twenty one. More stat that is very interesting. The
Jets were dominated on Monday night, and now of a
defense that was on the field for a ton of
plays going back short week to be against another really
physical team. That's what the Titans want to be. Teams
(09:09):
with fewer than twenty five minutes of possession in Week
one six and twenty five against the spread in Week two,
that's nineteen percent the jtal So look, I'm with you,
like this isn't going to be one of my five
best plays because I don't trust Will Levis and it's
and it's it's becoming clear in this league there is
(09:31):
such a delta between competent quarterbacking and really good quarterbacking
and not it's becoming too much of a hindrance for
teams where despite all these numbers that go back, you're
gonna have to play the quarterback in some situations. And
this to me is a scary spot. The Wise guys
aren't scared. They bet the Titans. I'm a little scared.
Speaker 2 (09:52):
I want to take Denver plus two and a half
against the Steelers, and here's what, Thank god, I thought
it was a really tough spot for both Nicks in
the opener loud stadium. You don't really know the defense.
You have to go watch Baltimore. Mike McDonald also, Seattle's
got elite corners, and you're a rookie. They asked him
(10:12):
to throw forty two times. He had one terrible pick.
He's more mobile and anybody thinks. And I had another
another ex player who I respect, tell me this week
he's going to be the best rookie quarterback. He may
not be the best year two three, four, he's going
to have the best year. The rest of them have
defensive coaches. I think Denver wins here. They've always been
(10:35):
good at home. I think it's a coaching mismatch. I
think Peyton's a brilliant coach. I like the Steelers as dogs,
not his favorites. Denver plus the point Sharper square.
Speaker 3 (10:43):
One hundred percent, ding ding ding ding Ding. Wise guys
love the Broncos. Here's probably going to take a little
piece of the Broncos on the money line as well.
Great spot for bow Nicks. I think the Wise guys
they love Seattle. They're really impressed with Seattle's defense, so
love Mike mcd ronald and what he can do with
that team. And I think the Wise guys were also
really impressed with how much better the Broncos played last
(11:07):
year this last week as a team versus what they
looked like a year ago. And defensively true, but I
think they were excited about bon Nicks.
Speaker 1 (11:15):
And if you watch the game back and.
Speaker 3 (11:18):
We heard this on the favorites from scouts and from
professionals who all watch a lot of film, bo Nicks
recognizes he missed some easy throws and that's because he
was still getting to know the pace of the game.
They liked the way he was a gamer. They liked
the way the Broncos stayed in that game. They basically
made the game a push. They backdoor pushed in that game.
(11:41):
Seattle was a six point favorite, So there's a lot
of sentiment that this is the right side. The line
moved from three to.
Speaker 1 (11:45):
Two and a half.
Speaker 3 (11:46):
And I will say, you excited about Tomlin Tomlin is
the greatest underdog coach possibly in the history of the
game the past twenty years for sure. Not just great
as an underdog, great as an underdog winning outright. He
is just as bad when he is a favorite forty
one twenty eight and one against spread as a road
dog in his career thirty two forty and two as
(12:08):
a road favorite, so it's almost completely flipped right. And
when he opens as a favorite of three or more
on the road thirty eight percent against the spread, So
I would say you're on the right side. Also, we've
talked about this on the show. You know, we do
this thing called the Luck Rankings at Action that sort
of takes the noise out of all the games and
tells you what the expected score would have been based
(12:30):
on the stats and if you didn't have the flukiness
and things like that, which there's always regression when there's flukiness.
Broncos are one of the three games that has the
highest sort of delta between lucky and unlucky in the
Steelers in the and the Broncos.
Speaker 1 (12:45):
So we like the Broncos.
Speaker 2 (12:46):
Here, I'll give you another underdog. I like Falcons plus
six and a half. I worry about Kirk cousins immobility.
But I thought Atlanta was at a big coaching disadvantage
when they faced the Steelers because Arthur Smith knew their
entire roster and it was Kirk cousins first game back
off an injury. He was very hesitant, a little like
if you looked at Aaron Rodgers passing stats. In the
(13:07):
first game he moved, he had twenty one passes, nineteen
to the left. He was not going to throw blind
behind him. He wanted to see the left side of
the field. He didn't want to get hit from behind.
And Aaron's great, but that first game back off the accident,
they're all hesitant. Kirk was hesitant. Philadelphia's defense is not good.
(13:29):
They spend money on it, they drafted. They were giving
up seven yards of play to green Bay and green
Bay's good. But young Atlanta's got players. I think they
play really well. I know Kirk in big standalone games
isn't great. Six and a half's a ton. I would
take Atlanta here, sharper.
Speaker 3 (13:46):
Square totally sharp wise guys like the Falcons here. I'm
a little hesitant personally, haven't really laid into this game yet,
but there's a lot of factors that go in the
direction of what you're talking about. I think the biggest
concern anybody has. It wasn't just that Kirk Cousins was hesitant.
There were throws where it looked like he didn't want
(14:07):
to plant off his injured achilles, and so he was
short hopping throws that looked like he was throwing off
of one leg. Right, So I think that was the
bigger concern, and maybe after a full game he's a
little more comfortable, you know. I think that what's interesting
here is to the Falcons advantage their interior line, especially
(14:30):
at center and right guard. Those are two of the
best players at their positions in the NFL. The strength
of the Eagles is their interior pressure, not their edges.
The strength of the Steelers was their edges. So just
sort of it's not really intuitive, but the way the
Falcons play might mitigate the Eagles' greatest advantage defensively.
Speaker 1 (14:52):
So a lot of wise guys are on the on
the Falcons here.
Speaker 2 (14:55):
I'm going to take one more underdog Giants plus one
and a half at the Commanders. Daniel Jones. Actually, this
is a vomit game that nobody wants to watch, But
I did think. I do think Brian Davis a really
good coach, and I thought they were bad in the
first series. Washington was just outplayed by a better quarterback
and a better team. The Giants were awful. It looked
like they hadn't practiced. They've actually had. Daniel Jones's five
(15:18):
to one and one against Washington, when he faces a
team that's his equal, he can compete. There's no way
I'm giving any you know, I'm taking any points I
get in this game. Giants plus one and a half,
mostly unwatchable, Sharper Square.
Speaker 3 (15:32):
Totally sharp. That is the Corner TV game of the week, Kylin.
It is the game nobody wants to watch unless you
are betting it. The wise guys will be on the Giants,
mainly for the reasons you just said. Dave Ball has
basically done incredibly well against the Commanders. Daniel Jones has
done well against the Commanders. There's always going to be
(15:52):
overreaction in Week two, and obviously the wise guys or
the fans are overjoyed with what they saw from Jaden Daniels. Right,
his Rookie of the Year odds for offense shrink people
were piling in on him for Rookie of the Year
because of how he played, and he was dynamic and
he made decent enough throws, but also the running ability
(16:15):
that is not a recipe that they can sustain, and
it also leads to overreaction in the market. So the
book maker shaded the number a little bit, and really
this game should be closer to pick. So you're getting
about a point a half of value because people are
so against the Giants and they loved what they saw
from the commanders.
Speaker 2 (16:37):
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Speaker 1 (18:06):
Here's a favorite I like.
Speaker 2 (18:09):
Sometimes I feel that you can get ahead of the
market for about a week to two. It happens more
in college because there's so many games on TV. It's
harder for bookmakers. Sometimes you just if you're a regional
better and you follow the PAC twelve. I can remember
years ago getting on an Oregon State team and they
I knew their personnel really well, and I watched their
(18:30):
games and had a good friend up there, and it happened.
Sometimes it doesn't happen a lot in the pros. I'm
not so sure. We're not three or four weeks away
from saying CJ. Stroud's the third best quarterback in the league.
I think he's insane. I mean Greg co Sell on
my show is like he's making throws that almost nobody
in the planet can make, like Stafford Burrough Mahomes. Yes,
(18:52):
I think I had somebody that was at Friday's Bears
practice before the game saying the ball was on the
ground more than they'd ever seen it. Caylebby's really struggling.
Romadunze may not play, Keenan Allen may not play. I
think CJ. Stroud is he is really something. I mean
(19:15):
he is that second game he played I think it
was Baltimore in his career. I was like, wait a minute,
this is Baltimore. What is he doing. I think this
could be ugly. I think the Texans are going to win.
I thought it would. When I guess the line on this,
I thought it would be closer to six and a half, seven,
seven and a half. At six, I think i'd take
the text in Sharper square.
Speaker 1 (19:35):
So look, it's a little bit square.
Speaker 3 (19:37):
The reason it's at six is because it opened at
six and a half, and the wise guys definitely felt
that was inflated for exactly the reasons you just said.
You know, obviously, We've talked about this. I'm from Chicago.
Speaker 1 (19:49):
I love the Bears.
Speaker 3 (19:50):
I will have a text chain on Sundays with all
my guys from Chicago. I can't even respond because they
come in so fast, and I'm so anxious about all
the other bets for me, like, I don't want to
talk to anybody, right, forty five texts in the first
half of that Bears game, we thought the Bears had
already broken. Caleb Williams like he was pushing the ball.
(20:12):
He wasn't throwing the ball, he was looking at his
first read and then taking off. He was inaccurate. He
was throwing too early on deep passes because he already realized,
oh my god, my offensive line is crap and I
can't outrun these defensive linemen. So we already looked like
it was over right, like we've seen it as Bear
stands a thousand times.
Speaker 1 (20:31):
Obviously we know that's not the case.
Speaker 3 (20:33):
But you couple that and how bad he looked in
the fact the Bears needed special teams in defense to
beat the Titans with how good CJ.
Speaker 1 (20:41):
Stroud look. He made a throw.
Speaker 3 (20:44):
On a third down, rolling right across his body middle
of the field, third and nineteen.
Speaker 1 (20:52):
Got it.
Speaker 3 (20:52):
It's the kind of throw you can only make if
you are an other world talent. We had what third
and eleven, third and twelve to seal the game, and
he at Nico Collins on a dart where Nico Collins
caught it with an inch of space before the sideline
got a knee down. That ends the game, right, Like CJ.
(21:13):
Shroud is something special, But that's why the line was
too high. So at six it's about where it's supposed
to be. You're not getting much of an advantage, might
even be a little bit high still at six and
a half.
Speaker 1 (21:23):
The wise guys like it. So you're playing a bad number.
Speaker 2 (21:26):
Okay, a game every week. I want you to teach
me and the audience a lesson. I don't get the number.
So the Lions go to overtime, that's not good. Generally,
I stay away from teams that go to overtime. You know,
seven to ten more plays the Lions. Clearly Baker played
his best game as a pro. This line is seven
(21:49):
and a half. I still think without Puka Nakua and
three backup offensive linemen, the Rams moved the ball up
and down the field in the second half, did everything
then wanted to do. Blake Korham didn't even play Tyler Higbe.
Their tight end is out.
Speaker 1 (22:04):
They were.
Speaker 2 (22:05):
It was just Cooper Cup, Matt Stafford and McVeigh and backups,
and they move up and down the field. Baker's got
legitimate receivers. I don't understand the number. You know to
me before, Why explain how Detroit is seven and a half?
What's the side here?
Speaker 3 (22:22):
Well, look that the Lions, according to a lot of
power ratings, should be bigger favorites. Like I love the
Lions in this spot and that is a massive number
to bet.
Speaker 2 (22:36):
It is a quarterback in Baker, it is.
Speaker 1 (22:39):
Well, here's the thing.
Speaker 3 (22:41):
I think that there's a couple of things going on.
Number One, on the on the Buck side, they are
getting overvalued because Baker was so good in that opening game, right,
But you were great against a rebuilding team, and the
expectations for the Bucks for a lot of people were
kind of low, and from a public point of view,
they've now exceeded them. And Baker looked unbeatable, but he
(23:06):
played against the team with a defensive line that is
basically starting from scratch, against a defense that doesn't have
great defensive backs, so he could kind of have his way.
The Rams are like their game plan, which they had
five months to build coming off a playoff game. They
(23:27):
were so tuned in and they were still losing seventeen
to three, and they needed a couple penalties to get
themselves back in a position. And yes, they were moving
the ball up and down the field because their offensive
line was terrible, but it was really passing the ball
and what they did the Rams was brilliant. Matthew Stafford
one step drop, first redthrow. Aden Hutchinson was in his
(23:51):
grill every single play, even when Matthew Stafford was throwing
it with after about a second and a half, right,
Baker is not that a player. Baker is not as
sort of efficient with when he drops back and getting
to his first receiver. And I think the Lions, and
we saw this in the overtime, they are so physically dominant.
(24:15):
They're playing at home. Dan Campbell is the best coach
against the spread the past five years, Jared Goff twenty
six and nine against the spread. Indoors like, this is
a this is a really good team. I think this
is the second best roster in the NFC. You could
argue the Niners are the best. The Lions showed something.
(24:37):
They're a physically dominant team. It is not about the edges,
It is not about Dan Campbell and sort of going
for it. Their offensive defensive line are fierce. So I
like the Lions there. I think they are going to
blow this team away.
Speaker 2 (24:52):
Okay, I always ask you for a game I missed
a game you feel strongly about. It's often an unwatchable,
egregiously bad television product. But I already gave you that
with the Giants in Washington. So what say you?
Speaker 1 (25:04):
Well, look, I do like another favorite.
Speaker 3 (25:06):
It's a little chalky for me, but I do like
the Cowboys against the Saints. I think, you know, Mike
McCarthy and Dak Prescott, they are juggernauts during the regular season,
they are juggernauts as big favorites at home.
Speaker 1 (25:20):
I am not a fan of the Saints.
Speaker 3 (25:22):
I think they played a bad Carolina team and got
in the exact right position. But Dak is a favorite
at home. Fifteen and nine against the spread. He's a
good yeah, past three years as a favorite of six
or more in his career, thirty one, thirteen and one.
That's right, Like, he's just great in this spot. And
(25:45):
so I like to I am on the side of
the Cowboys here. I think anything under seven you're getting
a good number. Here's the game that a lot of
wise guys have been talking about and has had one
of the biggest moves, and it makes me sick to
my stomach, but we're going to bet it.
Speaker 1 (26:02):
Green Bay Packers.
Speaker 2 (26:05):
What if Malik Willis plays?
Speaker 3 (26:07):
I know, I know, I don't know what to tell you,
but like, that's that's the game everybody is talking about. Look,
this game was at three and a half. It went
down to three. Now there's some places where it's two
and a half. That is not the squares coming in
and betting on the Packers. That is the wise guys
coming in. And like I think, I think there's a
(26:30):
couple of things. One the swing, the Packers were in
what's called the look aheadline, so the line that was
set before last week's games, the Packers were four and
a half point favorites with Malik Willis, they opened US
three and a half point underdogs. That's an eight point swing.
(26:52):
Patrick Mahomes is worth eight points against the point spread.
And the way that guy has figured this out is
they take how much better is he than his backup?
It's not just about what would the line be if
he's not playing if what would the line be if
his backup is playing? Right, So, Jordan Love, as good
as he is, is not an eight point swing kind
(27:15):
of generator when it comes to quarterback play. So they
think there was a little bit of inflation in the
way that they reopen the line from three and a half,
which is why I got bet down. But also there
are some on the field elements here. Number one, Malik Willis,
if he knows anybody, it's the cults right. For the
past couple of years, he's had to prepare for the
Colts backup quarterbacks when they are playing in their first
(27:42):
game fifty against the spread the past three seasons. There
is some sort of overreaction in the market that it
offers a little bit of value. And then just look
on the field, like the Colts defensive secondary is in trouble.
They were not great this past week against the Texans.
They're banged up. I mentioned the Jets and they're twenty
(28:05):
five points twenty five minutes of possession. The other team
that this applies to from the past week the Indianapolis Colts.
So that's another factor to look at. Matt Lafleor. I
just said, Dan Campbell best coach past five years against spread,
Matt Lafleur second best spread against the spread.
Speaker 1 (28:24):
So a lot of.
Speaker 3 (28:26):
Indicators here that are leading people to bet the Packers.
To hold your nose, bet the number kind of thing.
If you can get the three, I wouldn't say take
it at two.
Speaker 1 (28:35):
And a half.
Speaker 2 (28:37):
Chad Millman, c CEO Action Network All Odds provided by DraftKings.
He's an Oxford, Mississippi now Celebrannial Friend's new book right, Thompson.
So it's supposed to be a bourbon town. That's what
I'm not a bourbon drinker. It's supposed to be a
bourbon town. Can you validate that or verify that.
Speaker 3 (28:55):
I can validate that I did have a bunch of
bourbons last night. I'll tell you a funny story. I
got back to my hotel. We were a bunch of
us were at Right's house hanging out. And you know
you've interviewed Right.
Speaker 1 (29:08):
He is the.
Speaker 3 (29:09):
Quintessential Southern personality, great voice, drips accent like and he
is a Mississippian and he's got this town wired. And
so we're hanging out his house and starts with barbecue dinner,
and then it's a few drinks, and then it's a
few more drinks, and then it's like after midnight and
we're still sitting in the same place, and it's beautiful
(29:30):
outside and we're sitting on bourbons. And I get back
to my hotel and you know how in hotels, like
there's eight different lights and eight different light switches. You're
not used to like the layout right, maddening. And so
when I take out my contacts, I'm legally blind, Like
I can't see anything.
Speaker 1 (29:46):
I need to feel the room.
Speaker 3 (29:48):
And I realized I took out my contacts and I
hadn't turned off all the lights. So I had to
get like nose to the wall to find the light switches.
Found the light switch for the hallway, found the light
switch for the light behind it TV, found the light
switch for the bathroom. Like felt around and got to
the desk lights the you know, the side table lights
by the bed. Could not find the light switch for
(30:10):
the overhead light. Like, I'm in the wall, cannot find out.
I go back to all the other light switches. I'm
putting them up and down. Cannot find it. I had
to do the most embarrassing thing. I called the front desk.
I'm like, I know, Oxford's a crazy town. I promise
you I'm not so far gone. I'm gonna forget this.
In the morning, I cannot find the light switch for
(30:32):
my overhead light. And he goes, Okay, what do you
want me to do? I'm like, do you have any
idea where the light switches are.
Speaker 1 (30:39):
In my room? He goes, what room are you in?
Speaker 3 (30:43):
I go three twenty five? He goes, all right, let
me think about it. He goes now, and I don't
have anything down here that maps it. I was about
to see it him again. It's after midnight. There's only
one guy in the desk. He can't leave, but I'm
about to see him. Any chance you can come up
to my room and check out where the lights are.
And then as I was about to say it, I'm like,
that's the most sketchy thing that you could possibly say
(31:06):
after midnight to a god work in the front desk.
Speaker 1 (31:10):
I put the I said, you know what, I'll figure
it out.
Speaker 3 (31:11):
I put the phone down and I say to myself,
I'm like, I'm just I'm just gonna have to sleep
with the light on, like I don't know what else
to do. And then I gave myself a new Rockney.
I'm like, Milman, you're gonna find this light switch. You
can find this light switch again. I'm hands on the wall,
feeling it around, feeling around. Finally I get to the thermostat.
(31:32):
It is directly next to the thermostat. It looks like
the thermostat found the light switch, turned it off. Felt
full relief. Tripped on my way to the bed because
I couldn't see anything anymore. But I did find that
light switch. And I didn't insult anybody on the way.
Speaker 2 (31:48):
Yeah, that's that would have been a woman at the
front desk. That's a lawsuit.
Speaker 1 (31:52):
Yeah, I come.
Speaker 3 (31:57):
Burn spread clearly. It's so good I cannot find a
light scratch.
Speaker 2 (32:02):
All right, I'm gonna bounce back.
Speaker 1 (32:04):
Good seeing anybody, good, seeing you too, brother, I'll see
you later.
Speaker 2 (32:09):
The volume
Hosts And Creators
Colin Cowherd
Jason McIntyre
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