Colin’s top takes of the week!
He begins by explaining why you can’t overreact to after 2 weeks of the NFL season (3:00), why the Seattle Seahawks need to shake things up at QB (5:45), why the Jets will struggle to upgrade at head coach after firing Robert Salah (9:30) and why Patrick Mahomes reminds him of Michael Jordan (14:00)
Then, he’s joined by John Middlekauff, host of “3 and Out” to discuss the Bears and Caleb Williams showing week over week progress (22:00) and the New York Giants potentially being…good (27:30)? They, also debate whether the Denver Broncos could make the playoffs (31:30).
Finally, Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network, joins Colin for a round of “Sharp or Square,” to help provide Colin with the sharpest betting advice for week 6 of the NFL plus the marquee Big Ten matchup between Ohio State and Oregon.
42:45 - Jets vs Bills
45:45 - Broncos vs Chargers
47:15 - Bears vs Jags
51:15 - Packers vs Cardinals
54:15 - Commanders vs Ravens
58:00 - Bengals vs Giants
59:45 - Lions vs Cowboys
01:02:00 - Oregon vs Ohio State
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
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What time is it game Time? I don't think a
lot of teams now that I look at and don't
(01:04):
at least have a feel for them. I mean, I
think one of the harder teams for me to get
my arms around is the Arizona Cardinals. Yesterday, I thought
they would be really tough on San Francisco and they were,
but I thought they would be really tough at home
against Washington and we're not competitive Arizona to me, and
I think this is a lot of Kyler Murray's personality. Boy,
(01:24):
they can be really tough, beat themselves, inconsistent, but man,
Arizona week to week can be really tough. Buffalo has
a little bit of that feel where I just I'm
not quite sure what I'm getting a lot of it
depends on who's healthy and who's not Buffalo in Arizona,
and I think Buffalo is a better team, better organization
top to bottom. Those two teams, I kind of sit
(01:47):
and watch. I get a feel for him. By the
end of the first quarter, What am I gonna get?
Josh Allen wasn't his day. You could sense it didn't
have a slot receiver, was off, it was on the road,
got banged up later. Buffalo, I think it's the best team.
I picked them to win their division. In fact, in
the AFC right now, I had Buffalo, Kansas City, Houston
(02:08):
and Baltimore winning their division. So I'm right there. Atlanta
is good. Denver's the surprise team. I think we got
that right. Washington I thought would be one of the
surprise teams. I have no feel for the NFC West
at all. I think the Rams are injury plagued. San
Francisco's peaked. Seattle's got a good roster, but it's Gino Smith.
(02:29):
I think Arizona week to week can be just a
scintillating team, had a chance to win it. Buffalo gave
them fits early beat San Francisco. I just they're one
of the few teams I don't I can't track. I'm
not sure. But I also think we talked about this
a few years ago. There was a very good quarterback
class that had Jalen Hurts and Joe Burrow and Herbert
(02:52):
and Tuey. They hit in a lot of guys. I
think this quarterback class, Caleb and Jayden, Daniels and bow
Nicks all look like they can play. Now. New England's
offensive line is so bad and they're so inept offensively.
Do you play Drake May do you not? I'm okay
with either. I don't have a strong feeling. Michael Pennix
(03:12):
I think will be good. But it does look like
bo Jaden Daniels and Kayla Williams can play. That's three hits,
and I think Pennix will eventually. He may not play
until next year. He may not play for two years,
but I think he can play if he stays healthy.
And JJ McCarthy across your fingers, if he can beat
out Sam Darnold. But the more of these guys that hit,
(03:33):
the better football is. Because you're watching New Orleans tonight.
I mean, Kansas City made that game watchable. How's Miami
without Tua? It's hard to watch. Seattle has all that talent.
They're a tough watch depending on the weekend. You know,
Gino Smith is now oh and five. I went and
looked it up tonight. Owen five officially against San Francisco.
(03:54):
He never plays particularly well. No, he didn't have a
run game tonight, whereas Brock Purty did have a run game.
But he's been sacked fifteen times, four touchdowns, five picks,
mid eighties passer writing against San Francisco. And that's a
real deal. Is that you know you can? I mean
it's okay if Lamar Jackson loses to Kansas City. Everybody's
(04:14):
losing to Kansas City and Mahomes and Andy Reid. But
you gotta beat those divisional foes. Brady owned the AFC East,
Big Ben for years owned Cincinnati and Cleveland, and Gino
just doesn't play well against his rivals. So right now
you have Brock perties better than Geno. Kyler Murray's better
than Geno, and Matt Stafford in divisions, better than Geno Smith.
Seattle's got the fourth best quarterback in division. Listen the
(04:37):
Darnold story, the Baker story, the Geno story of redemption.
I love, but Sam and Baker better than Gino. He's
number three on that list. So I thought Seattle should
have taken a quarterback in last year's draft. I would
have got after Michael Pennock's local kid and had his
offensive coordinator, Coach Grubb, who's now the OC of the Seahawks.
(04:58):
But Atlanta gets him. So and I also think they
have to consider moving Maybe a DK metcalf, I just
I don't know. It doesn't I thought al Michaels hit
on it tonight, or maybe it was kirkirb Street. DK
sometimes doesn't feel engaged catching the ball with his body.
I just I just you get the occasional slash plays,
but I just don't feel like he's always engaged. And
(05:20):
you know, sometimes players just get tired of teams and environments,
and I don't know. There's a lot of receivers on
an annual basis from college to pro. I think DK
is a really good player, explosive. Somebody would be interested.
But that just feels like you could move off it
and garner a good draft pick, and that draft pick
(05:41):
you could use to move up because Seattle's gonna win
some games this year. As soon as their defensive line
gets healthy, they're gonna win some games. They won't be
a top seven or eight drafting team. So if you
have to move up, you have to give up, you know,
a couple of seconds, a couple of thirds, whatever you
got to do to move up. But I think Seattle
needs to go get a quarterback. You cannot have the
fourth best quarterback in the division right now. Gino again tonight,
(06:04):
a couple of picks thirty to fifty one. He's a
better story than he has. A quarterback. Donald this year
is a great story, and so it's Baker, but they're
also a really good quarterbacks. Currently, last two weeks, Seattle's
been dominated time of possession, So you know when you
fall into these big holes. They already were competitive, even
though I had it tied at ten against the Giants.
(06:25):
If you watch the game, they were dominated. Their offense
was rarely on the field. Tonight, again you're losing time
of possession. And some of that's just the defense with
Mike McDonald, they're all banged up, they can't make stops.
But you can talk yourself into a lot of different things.
You've got to have the first or second best quarterback
in your division right now. In the AFC, who leads
the AFC East, the best quarterback in the division, Josh Allen,
(06:47):
Lamar Jackson leads the AFC North. He's playing the best
in the division, C J. Stroud and Patrick Malmes, Okay
and Kirk Cousins. You know, he's over there in the
NFC South, best quarterback in that division. So yep, I
think Seattle has to have a big offseason. I like
John Snyder or the GM. I think he's sharp. He
(07:08):
and Pete Carroll didn't see eye to eye and it
was a little bit of a power struggle near the end,
but go get a quarterback. Got accumulate some draft picks.
Take a big swing on this. I think it's a
better quarterback college draft than we thought six months ago.
You know, you start watching these kids play, they all improve.
(07:28):
I'd make the move. I'm not a huge fan of
the Robert Solid firing because I think what happens is
that you end up with an interim coach and everybody
plays inspired football for the interim coach, and you kind
of get stuck because the players all like him. A
lot of times you get stuck higher in the interim coach.
But I was texting a couple of coaches, one former
(07:51):
coach and another coach tonight, and last year there was
one really good job available because of the quarterback the Chargers,
and Justin Herbert and Jim Harbaal the number one candidates,
swooped it up. This is going to be a rare
year when Philly, Dallas, Jacksonville, Chicago and Cincinnati potentially can
(08:11):
all have coaching openings. Now, Chicago's playing well, and I
think eber Flus at least knows his side of the ball,
Matt Eberflus, but you could potentially have Jalen Hurts, Dak,
Trevor Lawrence, Kleb Williams, or Joe Burrow available. So this
is one of those years for the New York Jets.
(08:33):
Aaron Rodgers forty, hasn't really been a great quarterback in
his last twenty starts prickly, kind of expensive, you know,
the Jets. By firing Sala, not only do you get
into that interim head coach dilemma where the players love
the interim head coach and play inspired football, and you
kind of lose the locker room potentially if you don't
(08:56):
hire him, because he's a guys guys now fas a
former player, he's well, very well liked according to all
the people in New York and the media, very well liked.
So but also this is going to be the Jets
are not going to be the first choice. I mean,
Philadelphia has got a better quarterback in Jalen Hurts. I'd
take him over Aaron today. He's younger and in his prime.
(09:18):
It's a better roster, better ownership. I mean, I think
Dallas has a better quarterback in Dak and a better owner.
You know, Chicago and Jacksonville. I mean, I get Caleb
Williams on a rookie contract in Cincinnati again Burrow or
Aaron Rodgers at forty one years old. And don't forget Buffalo,
(09:39):
Josh Allen. I like Sean McDermott, but that has been
a noisy coaching staff. Game management again this year is
a topic of conversation. Keep your eye on the Buffalo
bill opening. So and if the Giants, I think this
would be a catas strophic mistake if they moved off
(10:03):
Brian Dable, Buffalo, in my opinion, would swoop him up
in five minutes. I don't think the Giants are going
to make that mistake. But add Buffalo, that's the best
job available, good roster, solid GM, non chaotic ownership, Josh Allen,
(10:24):
those jobs just don't open up. That's like Matt Lafleur
in Green Bay job where Aaron was closer to his prime.
Those jobs just don't become available. So if the Jets
are Jets want to get into a sweepstakes for the
best coach, they may end up with a fourth or
fifth best choice. Look at these quarterbacks that could need coaches. Hurts,
Alan Burrow, Caleb Dak Aaron is way way past his
(10:51):
prime and continues to be a little in my opinion, subversive.
He says one thing to the media, Well, you're not buying, right,
You're not buying that Woody Johnson phone call. They were
just wishing each other an early happy Thanksgiving. Right, you
don't buy it. I don't buy it. Nobody buys that.
(11:13):
So I was talking to a coach tonight and he said,
it's a good year to be looking for a job.
So that's the dilemma when you sort of bum rush
Robert sala is that the top candidates look at that,
and this top candidate, somebody that I think will be
available for a job. They kind of look at how
(11:34):
you treated the last guy, and the last guy was
actually pretty good at his side of the ball, Robert
sala So that's always the dilemma. You keep seeing the
same teams in the top ten in the draft, and
we always blame coaches and quarterbacks, but so often it's
really it's the guys upstairs. I remember years ago, I
(11:54):
was with a friend. I was watching the Phoenix Sun
Chicago Bulls finals, Barkley against Jordan, and I was talking
to a friend of mine. She was a women's really
good women's basketball player, and we were talking about Jordan,
and Jordan was six ' six, wasn't the best shooter
or ball handler as a guard in the NBA, but
he just made things look so easy. And that's what
(12:17):
great players do. Uh. I mean, you watch Shohey Otani
and it just everything looks kind of easy, and you
never see them strained. Watching Derek Carr struggle mightily, just
just everything seems hard. Troy Aikman at one point was
being very kind as he underthrew another deep ball, saying, well,
(12:37):
he threw it as far as he could. Everything with
Mahomes is just it's kind of it's effortless. You know,
mechanics are solid, you would think watching him, but he's
a little loose because Aaron Rodgers can be a little loose.
He's really not. His mechanics are excellent. He's always got
his feet and his hips right. It's just it's just easy,
(13:01):
and that's part of when you're watching a college athlete.
Shaduur Sanders has this at Colorado where he's effortlessly accurate.
He can be moving left, right, forward, back, just any
any platform. Shador Sanders is just it's easy movements, easy accuracies. Easy.
I mean to me, Quinn viewers. Now Texas has been
(13:23):
hurt a couple of times. That worries me. Carson Beck
cam Ward's good but small. You know, you watch Shudr
Sanders and you're like, it's just, you know, he just
moves and throws without great effort. And that's what Mahomes does.
And it was a great contrast to watch Mahomes effortlessly
and Derek Carr straining on anything that was more than
(13:47):
ten yards. For Derek Carr seemed like it was hard.
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Speaker 1 (15:15):
John Middlecoff, as we do every Sunday. Former NFL scout
with the Philadelphia Eagles, three and Out's his podcast. He
joins me every Sunday night. All right, let's talk Chicago
Bears thirty six Carolina Panthers ten. It's an early window game.
So Caleb Williams again every week, looks a little more secure.
Twenty at twenty nine, three hundred yards, a couple of tds.
(15:38):
They jumped out to a twenty seven to seven league.
Swift had a couple of really nice runs. The run
game was okay, but Swift does give you, he gives
you pop. He'll hit on a couple of big runs,
and so you have to be honest. DJ Moore again,
revenge game. And my take watching Caleb is and I
(15:58):
said this before the season, I said, I don't know
if they'll win more than seven games, which is what
Justin Fields won, because I do believe Minnesota, Detroit and
Green Bay the division's better young team's all good. But
I said, you'll feel better about the seven wins. And
I think today because Carolina was playing pretty damn good football.
(16:19):
Two things today. Once again, we have to give Matt
Eberflu some credit. He does. He knows what he's doing
on his side of the ball. Secondly, this team was
playing well Carolina, and I thought, I think they I
think I was thinking about this when you have somebody
that's limited. BONNICKX has some limitations. It makes it easier
(16:40):
on Sean Payton. When you have Caleb and you have
fewer limitations, it may take you several weeks to figure out, Okay,
what am I comfortable with? What am I not comfortable with? Now?
Cliff Kingsbury, who's Washington ZOCI has had several players like
Jaden Daniels, so they got some tree in camp. Yeah,
(17:02):
but you're looking at Waldron. You know, you're at his career.
He never had anything like Caleb, So it feels like
it's just taken the Bears coordinator and staff. Okay, we're
not gonna do this. We're gonna do this. But I
thought I thought Caleb. I looked around today and I'm like, okay.
I mean one time he was running around. It was
almost comical. It looked like a high school thing, and
(17:23):
he didn't get anything out of it. But if I
was a Bears fan today and they only went seven,
I feel like I have a franchise quarterback.
Speaker 3 (17:30):
Yeah to me, you see moments like today. If they
can get him more consistent throwing the ball down the field,
they're gonna be a lot more competitive because when you
have a really good defense, you're gonna be in games.
I just pulled out their schedule because I was thinking, like,
they haven't played any three teams in their division. They
play them all late in the season, Yeah, the Vikings,
the Packers.
Speaker 1 (17:48):
They don't play the Packers till week eleven. Yeah.
Speaker 3 (17:51):
And so you could argue an alliance. You could say, well,
it's gonna be a really tough stretch. But they also
could ben because think how much experience he gets to have,
you know, kind of under his belt, you know, up
to like Thanksgiving or whenever they start playing. They also
play the Niners in there.
Speaker 1 (18:08):
Like if their.
Speaker 3 (18:09):
Offense can hit and he can be explosive down the
field and they can run the ball like that, they
could be a competitive, frisky team that competes in the
wild card. If they had no chance early on with
him overthrowing and not having much confidence in their passing game.
But if they can run the ball and he can
add the explosive play element. Because their defense is when
(18:29):
the dust settles. If they stay healthy, they're gonna be
a top five ish defense in the NFL. And when
you have a great defense, you see this with the
Broncos you see this obviously with the Bears, like your
quarterback doesn't have to have a great game like that's
they could carry you, and all of a sudden, it's
you know, ten ten in the fourth quarter. You just
have to make a player or two. That's always The
Niners got away with a lot of that over the year,
(18:50):
especially with Jimmy Garoppolo. Well they were just being a
thirteen to ten game. Then one big run you win
twenty ten. Right when your defense like today with the
Bengals and the Ravens, both those teams, I would imagine
on Monday.
Speaker 1 (19:02):
We should never go to overtime.
Speaker 3 (19:03):
When we score thirty eight points, we should win the
game by seventeen points when the clock hits double zero.
Speaker 1 (19:09):
That was a wildly entertaining game, but that was defense.
Speaker 3 (19:12):
That was insane. But the Bears don't play like that.
They can rush the pass or they're stout up front
and they get their dbs are really good. I was
texted with a coach who played them early in the season,
an assistant coach. He's like, their defensive backs are good.
So if you have good defensive backs in twenty twenty four,
that's that's the Broncos they have really good defensive backs. Well,
half the teams are obsessed with passing. And watch the Packers,
(19:33):
what do they want to throw the ball? Obviously the
Vikings want to throw the ball. We know the Lions
like throwing the ball. So if you can you know,
defend the pass with DBS and you have a good
pass rush, you're gonna be a serious, serious problem. And
to me, Caleb, you know, perties kind of was doing
this today that hero ball. Yeah, sometimes it's just a
couple of steps, get the rid of the ball and
if nothing's there, just thrown out of bounce. You know,
(19:54):
not everything has to be Lamar can get away with it.
But some of these guys that start doing the three sixties,
I mean that used to be a Russell Wilson thing.
And I think players, you know, on the offensive line
have been like, just get rid of the ball, right,
what are we doing? Because every sweet play you hit,
three or four of them screw up and you get
sacked or you maybe throw a pick or so. I yeah,
(20:15):
I think the Bears the Panthers kind of came back
to Earth today. Yeah, but part of that was the
Bears defense. So I yeah, nice little win.
Speaker 1 (20:23):
So the New York Giants controlled the Seahawks all day,
even when it was ten to ten, and they go
on to beat Seattle twenty nine to twenty blocking a
kick up in the Pacific Northwest. So this was this
is the one game I've lost so far. But as
we do this, I thought Seattle, no Molaitue Neighbors, Singletary
was banged up. But I will tell you when you
(20:43):
watch the Giants, they're old lines and d lines. They've
committed to those in the draft and in acquisitions. I
mean Daniel Jones twenty three to thirty four, two touchdowns,
two fifty seven. He rushed eleven times or carried eleven times. James,
I thought that is as good as Dan and that's
without elite neighbors. John, Like, I watched that today and
(21:07):
I'm not surprised by much Bandy beating Bama. You know,
USC losing, Yeah, yeah, USC losing the way they did
the Giants that was twenty nine to twenty. It it
felt like they were the better team. And you've got
to give this team credit. They have an offensive coach
on like the Jets. Their defensive line is excellent. When
(21:28):
I watched the Giants, I think they're well coached. I
think they're limited. But Daniel Jones, he moves, he's big,
he's healthy. Now, what did you make of that win?
Speaker 3 (21:40):
It's something Oh yeah, well, let's just acknowledge this. You
remove week one when they played Minnesota and got embarrassed.
Dan Jones been pretty good this season, he really has.
He's made a lot of plays. I mean, he made
a bunch of plays against Washington in the game when
they didn't have a kicker. Yeah, and Malik Neighbors. That's
kind of got his start going. I didn't think it
was that bad against the Cowboys. He underthrows some deep balls,
(22:02):
but no one ever like he's not Josh Allen Mahomes.
He's not a deep ball thrower. But he's not turning
the ball over. There was one time I looked up
and he would lowered his shoulder. So, I mean, I
think he's playing just pretty solid. Now, you know, are
they good enough? Like what does that mean?
Speaker 1 (22:20):
I don't know.
Speaker 3 (22:20):
I mean Seattle think about played Monday night in Detroit.
I don't know, what's that flight?
Speaker 1 (22:25):
Four and a half.
Speaker 3 (22:26):
Hours, you lose, you get back kind of your classic
come out the gates. Not playing that hard New York
off a long week because they had just played Thursday.
Looked like the fresher team. Yes, but New York is not.
I don't know. They're more likely in my mind to
win six or seven than nine or ten. But they
are a tough, you know, operation to play right now.
(22:48):
They are not some joke franchise. This is not you know,
I don't know, think of the worst team in the
Miami Patriot game.
Speaker 1 (22:55):
They remind me of Denver. They're squeezing every out out
of their team, and that to me is coaching. I mean,
I watched them today and I'm like, I thought, I'm
like neighbors Singletary, How the hell do they move the
ball now? Again? Seattle is dinged up on the d line.
But when I'm watching Daniel Jones, it's one of those things,
(23:16):
it's just the Hostetler. It's Phil Simms, it's Eli. Even
when they have the right quarterback in New York, it's
never dynamic and pretty. And I love Phil Simms and Eli,
but there's a Hostetler quality to Daniel Jones. And years ago,
when I worked at the other place, I used to
call them the accounting firm of the NFL. Even when
they have a great earnings report. It's boring. They're a
(23:38):
boring team. But I don't think you can deny. We
have to be totally honest about this. Brian Dabole, and
in New York it's just harder to coach. I mean,
if he was going through what Doug Peterson's going through
the last two months, he'd be done. He'd be out
with a Trevor Lawrence. He'd be fired. When I watch
that offense again, I'm watching Sean Payton score thirty fourth
(23:59):
day with bow Nicks. They're just squeezing every ounce. Then
I watched Josh Allen have a terrible day. So I
look at the Giants and I'm like, they have what
kind of the Jets don't, which is a really good
offensive coach. They get the most out of their talent.
There's really no drama. The HBO series didn't help, but
(24:19):
there's not a lot of drama around them. They're boring.
I don't love Daniel Jones, but I will say this,
he'd have a market because of what Brian Daboles done.
He'd have a market. He denver hammered the Raiders thirty
four to eighteen. They now have a better record than
the Jets at three and two with a rookie quarterback
(24:39):
and a roster This was one of my takes this offseason.
The best over bet was Denver because I think their
roster's okay, not great, but they are generating a pass
rush without a Pro Bowl guy up front. And I
watched bo Nicks had a touchdown pass drop today and
this is the difference between the great.
Speaker 3 (24:58):
It was a great throw too.
Speaker 1 (24:59):
Gre Ride is I watch Bonick now? Jaden Daniels is different.
I feel like I'm watching Lamar Jackson light. That's what
I feel like Jayden Daniels. I don't know what b
Nicks's comp is. And I was going to ask you
about this as a former scout. I do think there's
a ceiling. He is smaller, he doesn't have a big
deep arm. It's a little Derek Carr. I think Derek
(25:21):
Carr right now is a better deep arm than bo
Nick does. Do you have a comp for because clearly,
I mean Seawan is doing a Brian Dabole. He's squeezing
every ounce out of this roster. What is Bonick's ceiling?
Who is he to you?
Speaker 3 (25:39):
I think before quarterback inflation he fell under that Derek Carr,
Jimmy Garoppolo, you know, Okay, historically he would have been
a second round pick. Okay, Now he's a better athlete.
And I'm talking to Jimmy when he was decent for
the forty nine ers and Derek, you know, people love
to bag on him. He's had some pretty good years, yes,
for a team that let's face it, no one wins
with me in the race. So and I actually kind
(26:02):
of you know, the Saints, I think they're gonna have
a good season, and he's he's been playing well this season,
so I think he's under that mold. Now he's a
better athlete than both those two guys. Yes, Derek. You know,
when Derek was young, he had a pretty good pop
in his arm. I always say he's got more arm strengthen, boy,
But he'd never had a coach of Shawn's you know level.
(26:26):
He's had a lot of Yeah, So I think that
I think he can be a really good player if
you build up the team. And one thing Sean Payton
has done really the last couple of years of Drew Brees.
When he brought in Dennis out, they became good on defense.
I'm watching him today. We know certain. I mean he's
been a highly recruited guy since he was like fifteen
years old. But they have other dbs flying all over
(26:48):
the feet.
Speaker 1 (26:48):
Yes you are.
Speaker 3 (26:49):
I didn't have the volume on a couple of guys
made plays. I had to look up their names, like
who are these dbs?
Speaker 2 (26:55):
Because they are I get that they're.
Speaker 3 (26:57):
Playing the Raiders and Minshew and O'Connell, but that will okay,
you remove that brock Bowers play early in the game.
Once they got to the second quarter, they took control
and they came out a halftime and that was they.
Speaker 1 (27:09):
Curb stopped them.
Speaker 3 (27:09):
I mean they absolutely throttled them in the second half.
Speaker 1 (27:14):
And they're offensively. Mims looks like a good pick. Javonte
Williams are running back. He can catch it and he
can run it. I think I've always like Courtland Sutton.
Speaker 3 (27:25):
They like the Oregon wide receiver that dropped the ball, Franklin.
Speaker 1 (27:27):
Franklin.
Speaker 3 (27:28):
It's kind of the knock on him right as the hands,
but he unspeat and they played together in college.
Speaker 1 (27:33):
So I kind of look at Denver and are they
a playoff team? John? I look at them like I
look at Chicago. You watch their defense and you're like, okay,
so I have a Super Bowl Trophy coach. Their defense
is much better than people think. It's faster than people think,
(27:54):
like Chicago, and they have a rookie quarterback. The difference
is the NFC North, maybe the best division at football
probably is Whereas the Raiders are a mess, the Chargers,
you cross their fingers they get healthy. The Chiefs are vulnerable.
Though they're on a heater, they're vulnerable. I in fact,
I like the points in the Saints tomorrow. They're just
not beating anybody. Denver is I mean, it's thirty four
(28:18):
eighteen and they dropped the touchdown. I think they're personnel,
you know. I like this GM Patton. I didn't love
the Russell Wilson move, but in fairness, I liked it
when they made it. I didn't know Russell was going
to drop off the cliff. I kind of like Denver's players.
Speaker 3 (28:35):
Well, to me, when you look at the landscape of
the AFC, right the Chiefs, the Texans you know are
going to be there.
Speaker 1 (28:41):
Obviously, the Bills are going to be.
Speaker 3 (28:43):
There right now. The Chargers are the seventh seed, and
just based on injuries, you just know they're gonna have
so many it's gonna be hard to overcome. And if
their quarterback's banged up, they just be screwed. But turns
out Miami sucks. The Jets are I mean a complete
wild card. I mean there's been multiple times this season
when Rogers went down and you're like, is he gonna
(29:03):
get back up? I mean that happened today when he
got ben over. You thought, yeah, is this season over?
And even if his season he plays in all seventeen games,
that they are by no means no lock to win
nine games. The Browns, a playoff team from last year,
is an absolute train wreck right now. I mean has
the worst quarterback situation slack vibes going on right now
because of the negativity surrounding that situation. So I think
(29:27):
you just look at the landscape of the AFC Cincinnati,
who obviously is pretty good. I mean, they got a
pretty special offense. But you start playing a numbers game
all of a sudden, you two and five. How do
you ever get back? You can't. You're not able to
win enough games in a row when you have that
big of a flaw as a defensive football team. That's
what's crazy about the Ravens is like, where did their
(29:47):
defense go? But Cincinnati like that has like they're they're
not good on defense, and it's hard. I don't care
if you got Joe Burrow, Jamar Chason T. Higgins, who
all look fantastic. If your defense is that bad, well,
the Broncos are like, hey, we're gonna have some games
when the throws for seventy five yards and you know what,
we'll when the fucking thing sixteen to thirteen. We got
no problem to do it. Like Cincinnati doesn't even have
that capability. Harbaugh in theory would But Joey bost is
(30:09):
already sitting in a suite. You know, the injuries have
kind of unraveled, and you know you got Herbert limping around.
It's this team. Just the speed of Denver's defense. Oh,
they more of a deep dive on their defensive roster.
I don't even know some of their player besides certain
who is I mean, what does he look like right now?
Like Charles Woodson meets Rod Woodson in this prime? How
good does he look.
Speaker 1 (30:36):
All right? Time for another edition of Sharp or Square
with my buddy Chad Millman, c COO Action Network. All
odds provided by DraftKings. So last year I had a
rough first month and I caught fire. And one of
the reasons I caught fire is I started noticing a
trend in my picks is that I was overthinking the
room and as this league has become more quarterback centric
(30:59):
when all else failed, the best quarterback is winning the games,
regardless of the spread. And that Monday Night's a great example.
Is everything told you, oh, those unlucky Saints, and then
two plays in You're like, I'm betting against Patrick Mahomes
over Derek Carr. So a great example of that to
me this week, I'm gonna inverse it. Aaron Rodgers since
(31:27):
December of twenty twenty two, has had one three hundred
yard game in that time. Davis Mills has had a couple. Okay,
Desmond Ritter has had more than one. Is that because
he's a pretty passer, and we tend to embrace pretty
(31:48):
longer the aging supermodel, we grow up with him. We
can't let pretty go. We can let Peyton Manning was great,
but he wasn't pretty. Aaron's pretty. He's not a very
good quarterback anymore. He's not an efficient quarterback. So Josh
Allen is really good. They're getting a bit healthier. This
(32:10):
is a team that's gone through a chaotic week. They're
still banged up on the offensive line. Josh Allen is
significantly better than Aaron Rodgers. I am swallowing the two
and a half points. I'm going against the high energy
of a interim coach. Let's go backwards. Sharper square.
Speaker 4 (32:27):
I mean, it's square as square as can be. You're
going to take a road favorite in the division. That
is a trend that will work against you over time.
You are going to buy a team. While the Bills
obviously aren't a two game losing streak, You're going against
(32:51):
a team that is much more undervalued in the Jets,
playing at home because they are going through a coaching
change and because there has been all this chaos in
their organization for the past month. So you're really playing
against into what the public wants. The public, by the way,
(33:13):
are betting the Bills at about a eighty five to
ninety percent clip, and that's another time when you want
to fade the public. So it's square. This line has
moved in the Bills direction. All the money is coming,
all the bets are on the Bills. The wise guys
have bet this down to two. It goes back up
(33:35):
to two and a half. They take it again, it
goes back down to two. Wise guys are in their jets.
Speaker 1 (33:42):
I do not believe although I said the Denver Broncos
would be significantly better, they were my choice last year.
I said the Rams are not a six win team.
This year, I said the Broncos personnel offensively is not
a five win team. They're going to win eight or nine,
probably don't make the playoffs. They're not on a three
game heater. That said, bow Nicks against Justin Herbert, who's
(34:04):
healthy with both tackles and offensive coach off of by
Chargers minus two and a half at Denver again, I'll
take the divisional road favorite. It is a mismatchic quarterback.
I do not believe the Denver Broncos are a four
game winning streak team. I am selling them at a
high point. Sharper square, dude.
Speaker 4 (34:24):
There's a couple of games this week where there is
zero consensus and very strong opinions on both sides, and
this is one of those games. I will say that
I'm with you. My favorite co host, Simon Hunter professional
better is with you this line was at three, got
bet down to two and a half, then it goes
(34:46):
back up to three, then it gets bet down. What
that is telling you is that when the game is
at two and a half, professionals, a certain section of
professionals love the Charters, and when the game is at three,
a different group likes the Broncos. And they are basically
just playing each other right now. They are just betting
back and forth, back and forth. And like, what's interesting
(35:08):
about these games, and we've talked a little bit about
this when it comes to people like Jim Harbaugh and
also people like Dan Campbell, they are building from the
inside out. They are building from the line of scrimmage.
And with Harbaugh and Campbell both it's really been about
the offensive line. So Joe All coming back, hopefully Rashaun
(35:29):
Slater coming back for the Chargers. That will mitigate the Broncos'
greatest strength, which is their pass rush, which this year
is top five in pressure rate and is really the
reason why the Broncos have been staying in the games.
They're staying so to me, I like the Chargers here
(35:49):
because I think that they are they have the better quarterback,
and I don't believe in bo Nicks.
Speaker 1 (35:55):
Yet.
Speaker 4 (35:55):
I think they've win with some smoke and mirrors right now,
but it is not going to find a sharp side
or a square side on this. I will say the
Broncos are a very public dog because they've been winning.
The public is coming in. So if you're looking for
how to fade, you do want to fade the Broncos.
Speaker 1 (36:20):
Let's go to London. I think Caleb Williams and his
offensive cohorts went to Shane Waldron and said, we're not
a Pop Warner team. Give us more. Since that time,
Caleb Williams is completing seventy one percent of his throws
and doesn't have a turnover. The Jaguars just got out
(36:40):
of a long losing streak and almost gave that game away.
Whereas the Bears, I can look at them and go
excellent defensive coaching, and I can look at Caleb Williams
and say, ascending young star quarterback. There is nothing about
the Jaguars I can definitively say. I like the Bears
(37:02):
are starting to add to the things. I like, we
know that Iberfluskin coach defense. That's inarguable. It's like Robert Sola,
you don't have to love him. He knew defense. I'm
gonna take the Bears minus one and a half. In London,
favorites do well overseas. Sharper Square favorites.
Speaker 4 (37:18):
Are I think thirty five and ten. I don't know why, right,
And by the way, I think it's something like thirty
fourteen and one against the spread, including this past week
Minnesota beating up on the Jets. Right, So the wise
(37:38):
guys have been betting the Jags in this spot. They're
not fully bought in on the Bears. They feel like
the Bears have beaten bad teams and until the Panthers,
you know, they didn't look that great beating the Colts.
They didn't look that great beating the Rams. I agree
with you what you're seeing about Kayleb Williams. He's definitely
taking steps and it's not like the Jag defense is
(38:01):
anything that is lighting up the league or that people
are afraid of. And to your point, like Doug Peterson
after that touchdown pass to Alec Pearce by Joe Flacco
in that game, I thought Doug Peterson wanted to disappear
into a hole like he was on the balls of
his feet, his elbows, on his knees like he looked devastated,
(38:23):
like I don't know what to do with this team anymore.
So this is not a good team. But they're still
betting the Jags. And I'll be honest with you, it's
all trend based and model based. There is nothing on
the field that makes any professional better look at this
and say, oh, yeah, I gotta take the Jags. This
is where, by the way, your quarterback theory might play out, because.
Speaker 1 (38:46):
Best quarterback wins.
Speaker 4 (38:47):
Yeah, the better quarterback wins. And I don't think there's
anyone who will say that Caleb Williams isn't ascendant and
that Trevor Lawrence is a little bit flataued or even
regressing right now. I think some of the things that
the wise Guy's like, if it's anything, it's about the travel.
There is a very significant trend and record of the
(39:09):
team that has played in London before performing better because
it is so sort of dislocating for both teams that
when you've had that experience it plays to your strength.
Speaker 1 (39:23):
So there's I have this belief when there's a line,
most lines are three to three and a half, two
and a half, six and a half, seven, seven and
a half but when the line's four and a half
to five, what they're telling you is one team is
clearly better. And that tells me that green Bay minus
five is better than Arizona. So I tend to believe
(39:43):
that young quarterbacks Jordan Love still qualifies as that at
home are more comfortable. I think Jordan Love isn't totally healthy,
but I think he's getting there now. Christian Watson practice
this week. I picked green Bay to win the division.
Jordan Love's injury slowed that down. I have seen now
(40:03):
a half here or a half there where they look
really good. I think they put it all together. Arizona
is a celebratory young team that awful win could be flat.
I don't trust them week to week. I would swallow
the points five and take green Bay sharper square totally sharp.
Speaker 4 (40:21):
It's the side. The Cardinals are one of those public teams.
We just talked about it with the Broncos to watch, Yeah,
like they're really fun to watch, and look, they just
had their Super Bowl. Right The Cardinals right now are
in second place in their division and the Niners are
in third because they're both two and three, and the
Cardinals beat the Niners. The challenge with Kyler Murray is
(40:44):
there's so much inconsistency. And we liked what we saw
Trey McBride, but again, like they won that game because
at the end of it, the Niners didn't have a kicker,
and so they had to make really unorthodox decisions when
they were in the red zone when otherwise they might
have been kicking field goals. And if not for a fumble,
(41:07):
the Cardinals don't get the ball back and they don't
get a chance to drive for the game winning kick. Right,
So we have to take some of this cardinal ascendancy
with a little bit of a grain of salt, and
I think I'm seeing the same thing that you are
with the Packers. Number One, Matt Lafleur is a genius
when it comes to scheming. He is clearly going to
be a better coach than Jonathan Gannon is going to be.
(41:30):
And I also think the Packers defense this year, their
defensive backfield, especially very opportunistic. Already more interceptions this year
through that was before last week than they had all
of last year. So while there are still holes in
their defense, they're at least getting the turnovers that they
hadn't be getting in the past, and to me, I
(41:50):
feel like we are three weeks into Jordan Love being back.
This is the first game back where he's not going
to be facing a really challenging defense at home.
Speaker 1 (41:59):
I e.
Speaker 4 (42:00):
Nine Flora's in the Vikings. We saw what they did
in the second half when they made the adjustments and
were able to come back against the Vikings. I agree
with you. Whyse guys agree with you.
Speaker 1 (42:09):
Packers are the side, So Commanders plus six and a
half is my side. Here's why Lamar Jackson eats the
NFC because you can't duplicate esthetically stylistically what he does
in practice, except Washington can they have Lamar Jackson light
so they see Lamar Jackson light in practice every day.
(42:30):
I'm also a believer until you prove otherwise, I'm going
to believe what my eyes tell me. Washington's really good,
way too good to give him six and a half.
If they wouldn't have been the league's tire fire for
a decade, you'd say this line's ridiculous. If anybody else
was playing this well for five weeks, any other team,
(42:54):
maybe outside of Carolina, there would be complete buy in.
There's utter skepticism they're good they have lamar light. Washington's
seen this at practice. I'm taking the point Sharper square.
Speaker 4 (43:08):
So it's square. But when you look at the numbers here,
the betting tickets are on the Commanders. They are the
fly high team that everybody loves right now, there's no
doubt about it. But you can see the money is
on the Ravens. And when you have a split between
(43:29):
tickets and money, tickets represents the public. Money represents the Sharps, right,
and these guys have been looking to sell the Commanders,
so it's very possible they will continue to be wrong
and you are right right because they wanted to sell
the Commanders last week and they lost. They wanted to
sell the Commanders the week before and they lost. They
(43:51):
are going to keep doubling, tripling down on selling the
Commanders until they're eventually right. Matchup wise, this does play
to the Ravens and strengths. They are a tremendous running
team right now, one of the best in the league,
and they are going against a terrible, terrible run defense,
especially in early downs. Now we've said this before the
(44:12):
Ravens last year in the AFC title game. If they
had just run the ball they win that game. Instead,
they put it in Lamar's hands. So you have to
hope that they actually go with the game plan that
will give them the best chance to win. Historically, teams
that are overachieving like the Commanders, and when I say
overachieving meeting, they are covering the point spread by about
(44:35):
five points per game. Those teams going forward in every
game thereafter until there is enough regression that it evens
out cover it about a forty three percent clip. This
is what really worries Ravens betters. Okay, underdogs this year
six plus points, eleven and eight straight up, sixteen to
(44:57):
two to one against the spread. And this is one
of those weeks. We got a few of these games.
We got this one. We got the Patriots, we got
the Browns, we got the Eagles, we got the Panthers
like and the Falcons like. It's a more big spreads
than we've had at any point so far this season.
(45:18):
But here is what's really scaring Ravens backers. You could
see this game, Ravens are up by thirteen, twelve, eleven, ten, nine, eight, seven,
any number like that, and the back door is wide open,
and the Ravens pass defense is soft and Jayden Daniels
(45:40):
will not quit. This Commander's team will not quit. They
might not they might know they're not going to win
the game, but they might score that back door. So
it's a it's going to be a sweat. It is
not going to be a oh yeah, it's a blowout.
And by the middle of the third quarter, Ravens betters
feel like they can, you know, turn on a cooking show.
Speaker 1 (46:01):
Okay. One thing that almost guarantees consistency college or pro
football is a really good offensive line. You kind of
get the same Detroit team every weekend. People just don't
quite realize how good the New York Giants offensive line is.
That Seattle game wasn't close. I don't care what the
(46:23):
score was. Mike McDonald's team couldn't get them off the field.
Danny Dimes doesn't turn the ball over without Molik Neighbors,
without Singletary, completely controlled the line of scrimmage. They're not
as good as Detroit, but Cincinnati can't stop anything. And
(46:45):
this very quietly because it's been so bad for so
many years. This Giant's O line reminds me of the
Giants D line. It controls most of the teams it plays.
I'm taking the three and a half points New York
plus three and a half at home. Sharper square, totally sharp.
Speaker 4 (47:03):
I'm surprised you chose this one, not because I don't
have faith in your ability to be super sharp, because
you truly are a maven of the media, a master
of content, and a man who understands where the audience
is going and what they want to hear. But this
just felt like the kind of game you'd want to
(47:24):
ignore unless it's a primetime game. But you're one hundred
percent right. The Wise guys are on the Giants here
this line. Actually it opened at three and a half,
and like you can see in the Jews, the vague,
the commission, the way the bookmakers start to play with
those things. Normally the numbers at minus one ten. When
it starts to go up minus one fifteen minus one twenty,
(47:49):
that's basically them saying to you, all right, it's going
to move or the other side plus one fifteen plus
one twenty, this number is going to move to three.
And that's because the Wise guys are buying hook the
half a point for the Giants because they feel the
same way you do. They think this team has been
balling out lately. Daniel Jones has been playing much better.
(48:09):
Brian Dayball has been calling great game plans the past
couple of weeks. And look like, go back, what was
it three weeks ago? They're playing the Commanders. They don't
score any touchdowns and like that's why they lose that game.
I know it's a weird thing to say, oh, look,
this team is better than you think, but one ball
(48:31):
bounces a different way, and the Commanders aren't even six
and a half point underdogs, they're more. And no one's saying, oh,
the Giants really shouldn't be any more than the Giants.
They're saying the Giant shouldn't be any more than a
field goal against the Bengals at home. So that's that's
an interesting pick by you.
Speaker 1 (48:51):
So let's go to the best offensive line in football, Detroit.
So this line was at three and a half and
I said on the air on FS one, if it
comes down to three, I'm taking Detroit. So a couple things.
Dallas is the Arizona Cardinals or the Buffalo Bills of
the league. I'm not really sure what team I get,
just depends on the matchup and the mood. I get
(49:12):
the same. And that's because Dallas has a very left tackle,
revolving door injuries. You don't know what they are with
their offensive line. It's matchup based. Detroit's a better team.
Detroit is a completely consistent team. Listen, they give up
yards they do on the back end. I mean Gino
Smith had thirty eight first downs against them, and that
(49:34):
worries me. But Hutchison and the tackle, the left tackle
for Dallas, yikes. Yeah, I know it's a road favorite,
but at three Sharper square, I like Detroit.
Speaker 4 (49:47):
Well, it's not sharp, right, Nobody in their right mind
is going to say, as a professional better, Yes, the
right side here is the road favorite and the publics
side playing in Dallas. But you said something that is
so on point, and you talk about quarterbacks and bad
(50:11):
quarterbacks and good quarterbacks as being sort of a decision
maker for you. For me, more and more, it's becoming
about who controls the line of scrimmage because to me,
that is the most consistent and dependable way a team
can define performance and live up to expectations. Right, there's
going to be some matchup issue at some point on
(50:34):
the edges or running back may get hurt. A quarterback
is having a bad game, but offensive line, defensive line
consistency is pretty easy to mark. Lions their top five,
top two dominant, not just as an offensive line but
as a defensive line. But when you look at their
offensive line across the board, like this is why this
(50:57):
team is a top five overall offensive team right now.
And to me, what's really fascinating is you look at
the Jared Goff game. He went eighteen for eighteen, but
it wasn't Jared Goff going thirty five of forty for
four hundred yards and four touchdowns working outside of the
(51:18):
offense because it was a you know, a shootout, Jared
Goff working within the confines of the offense. Ben Johnson
calling a great game. Dan Campbell clearly has said we're
not ourselves these first few games. Let's get back to basics.
Football is a violent game. We are built to be violent.
So to me, every advanced metric that every geek can
(51:41):
think of favors the LIGHTNS here and every other metric.
When you look at the Cowboys and you shake it out,
it basically says their defense, especially against the run, is trash.
I don't know if the wise guys will be with you.
I know I will be. We're making an executive decision, Colin.
We're going with the lines.
Speaker 1 (52:03):
The college game of the year is Oregon getting about
a field goal. It was like four, now it's down
to three against Ohio State. I think they could meet
in the playoff. I think Eugene they've won thirty four
or thirty five at home. Dylan Gabriel's having completing almost
eighty percent of his throws. They have their own line, right.
I think Ohio State's better, but I think putting kids.
I mean, if you go look at Ohio State against
(52:24):
top ten teams, they've actually not been very good the
last three years. I think I would take Oregon in
the points sharper square.
Speaker 4 (52:32):
Yeah, I would too. I think that the quarterback play
for Ohio State is eh. You know, the reason why
their receivers keep making so many fantastic catches is because
the throws aren't always that good. And you know, it's interesting,
what did Nick Saban say on game day? He's like,
you spend twenty million, it doesn't really matter. You got
to spend the right twenty million on the right guys.
(52:54):
And I think this is the beginning of a gauntlet
for Ohio State. They spent that twenty million at probably
right before they're about to have the hardest schedule that
they have had in years to get to a national
championship contending position. I think we all believe they'll make
the playoff, but it's no guarantee. You got Oregon, Ohio State,
(53:16):
Penn State two, three four. Like that Big ten now
is brutal, So I agree with you. I like Oregon.
Speaker 1 (53:27):
The volume. Thanks so much for listening. If you've enjoyed
the podcast, take a moment rate and review
The volume football seasons. Here, there's only one place to
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What time is it game Time? I don't think a
lot of teams now that I look at and don't
(01:04):
at least have a feel for them. I mean, I
think one of the harder teams for me to get
my arms around is the Arizona Cardinals. Yesterday, I thought
they would be really tough on San Francisco and they were,
but I thought they would be really tough at home
against Washington and we're not competitive Arizona to me, and
I think this is a lot of Kyler Murray's personality. Boy,
(01:24):
they can be really tough, beat themselves, inconsistent, but man,
Arizona week to week can be really tough. Buffalo has
a little bit of that feel where I just I'm
not quite sure what I'm getting a lot of it
depends on who's healthy and who's not Buffalo in Arizona,
and I think Buffalo is a better team, better organization
top to bottom. Those two teams, I kind of sit
(01:47):
and watch. I get a feel for him. By the
end of the first quarter, What am I gonna get?
Josh Allen wasn't his day. You could sense it didn't
have a slot receiver, was off, it was on the road,
got banged up later. Buffalo, I think it's the best team.
I picked them to win their division. In fact, in
the AFC right now, I had Buffalo, Kansas City, Houston
(02:08):
and Baltimore winning their division. So I'm right there. Atlanta
is good. Denver's the surprise team. I think we got
that right. Washington I thought would be one of the
surprise teams. I have no feel for the NFC West
at all. I think the Rams are injury plagued. San
Francisco's peaked. Seattle's got a good roster, but it's Gino Smith.
(02:29):
I think Arizona week to week can be just a
scintillating team, had a chance to win it. Buffalo gave
them fits early beat San Francisco. I just they're one
of the few teams I don't I can't track. I'm
not sure. But I also think we talked about this
a few years ago. There was a very good quarterback
class that had Jalen Hurts and Joe Burrow and Herbert
(02:52):
and Tuey. They hit in a lot of guys. I
think this quarterback class, Caleb and Jayden, Daniels and bow
Nicks all look like they can play. Now. New England's
offensive line is so bad and they're so inept offensively.
Do you play Drake May do you not? I'm okay
with either. I don't have a strong feeling. Michael Pennix
(03:12):
I think will be good. But it does look like
bo Jaden Daniels and Kayla Williams can play. That's three hits,
and I think Pennix will eventually. He may not play
until next year. He may not play for two years,
but I think he can play if he stays healthy.
And JJ McCarthy across your fingers, if he can beat
out Sam Darnold. But the more of these guys that hit,
(03:33):
the better football is. Because you're watching New Orleans tonight.
I mean, Kansas City made that game watchable. How's Miami
without Tua? It's hard to watch. Seattle has all that talent.
They're a tough watch depending on the weekend. You know,
Gino Smith is now oh and five. I went and
looked it up tonight. Owen five officially against San Francisco.
(03:54):
He never plays particularly well. No, he didn't have a
run game tonight, whereas Brock Purty did have a run game.
But he's been sacked fifteen times, four touchdowns, five picks,
mid eighties passer writing against San Francisco. And that's a
real deal. Is that you know you can? I mean
it's okay if Lamar Jackson loses to Kansas City. Everybody's
(04:14):
losing to Kansas City and Mahomes and Andy Reid. But
you gotta beat those divisional foes. Brady owned the AFC East,
Big Ben for years owned Cincinnati and Cleveland, and Gino
just doesn't play well against his rivals. So right now
you have Brock perties better than Geno. Kyler Murray's better
than Geno, and Matt Stafford in divisions, better than Geno Smith.
Seattle's got the fourth best quarterback in division. Listen the
(04:37):
Darnold story, the Baker story, the Geno story of redemption.
I love, but Sam and Baker better than Gino. He's
number three on that list. So I thought Seattle should
have taken a quarterback in last year's draft. I would
have got after Michael Pennock's local kid and had his
offensive coordinator, Coach Grubb, who's now the OC of the Seahawks.
(04:58):
But Atlanta gets him. So and I also think they
have to consider moving Maybe a DK metcalf, I just
I don't know. It doesn't I thought al Michaels hit
on it tonight, or maybe it was kirkirb Street. DK
sometimes doesn't feel engaged catching the ball with his body.
I just I just you get the occasional slash plays,
but I just don't feel like he's always engaged. And
(05:20):
you know, sometimes players just get tired of teams and environments,
and I don't know. There's a lot of receivers on
an annual basis from college to pro. I think DK
is a really good player, explosive. Somebody would be interested.
But that just feels like you could move off it
and garner a good draft pick, and that draft pick
(05:41):
you could use to move up because Seattle's gonna win
some games this year. As soon as their defensive line
gets healthy, they're gonna win some games. They won't be
a top seven or eight drafting team. So if you
have to move up, you have to give up, you know,
a couple of seconds, a couple of thirds, whatever you
got to do to move up. But I think Seattle
needs to go get a quarterback. You cannot have the
fourth best quarterback in the division right now. Gino again tonight,
(06:04):
a couple of picks thirty to fifty one. He's a
better story than he has. A quarterback. Donald this year
is a great story, and so it's Baker, but they're
also a really good quarterbacks. Currently, last two weeks, Seattle's
been dominated time of possession, So you know when you
fall into these big holes. They already were competitive, even
though I had it tied at ten against the Giants.
(06:25):
If you watch the game, they were dominated. Their offense
was rarely on the field. Tonight, again you're losing time
of possession. And some of that's just the defense with
Mike McDonald, they're all banged up, they can't make stops.
But you can talk yourself into a lot of different things.
You've got to have the first or second best quarterback
in your division right now. In the AFC, who leads
the AFC East, the best quarterback in the division, Josh Allen,
(06:47):
Lamar Jackson leads the AFC North. He's playing the best
in the division, C J. Stroud and Patrick Malmes, Okay
and Kirk Cousins. You know, he's over there in the
NFC South, best quarterback in that division. So yep, I
think Seattle has to have a big offseason. I like
John Snyder or the GM. I think he's sharp. He
(07:08):
and Pete Carroll didn't see eye to eye and it
was a little bit of a power struggle near the end,
but go get a quarterback. Got accumulate some draft picks.
Take a big swing on this. I think it's a
better quarterback college draft than we thought six months ago.
You know, you start watching these kids play, they all improve.
(07:28):
I'd make the move. I'm not a huge fan of
the Robert Solid firing because I think what happens is
that you end up with an interim coach and everybody
plays inspired football for the interim coach, and you kind
of get stuck because the players all like him. A
lot of times you get stuck higher in the interim coach.
But I was texting a couple of coaches, one former
(07:51):
coach and another coach tonight, and last year there was
one really good job available because of the quarterback the Chargers,
and Justin Herbert and Jim Harbaal the number one candidates,
swooped it up. This is going to be a rare
year when Philly, Dallas, Jacksonville, Chicago and Cincinnati potentially can
(08:11):
all have coaching openings. Now, Chicago's playing well, and I
think eber Flus at least knows his side of the ball,
Matt Eberflus, but you could potentially have Jalen Hurts, Dak,
Trevor Lawrence, Kleb Williams, or Joe Burrow available. So this
is one of those years for the New York Jets.
(08:33):
Aaron Rodgers forty, hasn't really been a great quarterback in
his last twenty starts prickly, kind of expensive, you know,
the Jets. By firing Sala, not only do you get
into that interim head coach dilemma where the players love
the interim head coach and play inspired football, and you
kind of lose the locker room potentially if you don't
(08:56):
hire him, because he's a guys guys now fas a
former player, he's well, very well liked according to all
the people in New York and the media, very well liked.
So but also this is going to be the Jets
are not going to be the first choice. I mean,
Philadelphia has got a better quarterback in Jalen Hurts. I'd
take him over Aaron today. He's younger and in his prime.
(09:18):
It's a better roster, better ownership. I mean, I think
Dallas has a better quarterback in Dak and a better owner.
You know, Chicago and Jacksonville. I mean, I get Caleb
Williams on a rookie contract in Cincinnati again Burrow or
Aaron Rodgers at forty one years old. And don't forget Buffalo,
(09:39):
Josh Allen. I like Sean McDermott, but that has been
a noisy coaching staff. Game management again this year is
a topic of conversation. Keep your eye on the Buffalo
bill opening. So and if the Giants, I think this
would be a catas strophic mistake if they moved off
(10:03):
Brian Dable, Buffalo, in my opinion, would swoop him up
in five minutes. I don't think the Giants are going
to make that mistake. But add Buffalo, that's the best
job available, good roster, solid GM, non chaotic ownership, Josh Allen,
(10:24):
those jobs just don't open up. That's like Matt Lafleur
in Green Bay job where Aaron was closer to his prime.
Those jobs just don't become available. So if the Jets
are Jets want to get into a sweepstakes for the
best coach, they may end up with a fourth or
fifth best choice. Look at these quarterbacks that could need coaches. Hurts,
Alan Burrow, Caleb Dak Aaron is way way past his
(10:51):
prime and continues to be a little in my opinion, subversive.
He says one thing to the media, Well, you're not buying, right,
You're not buying that Woody Johnson phone call. They were
just wishing each other an early happy Thanksgiving. Right, you
don't buy it. I don't buy it. Nobody buys that.
(11:13):
So I was talking to a coach tonight and he said,
it's a good year to be looking for a job.
So that's the dilemma when you sort of bum rush
Robert sala is that the top candidates look at that,
and this top candidate, somebody that I think will be
available for a job. They kind of look at how
(11:34):
you treated the last guy, and the last guy was
actually pretty good at his side of the ball, Robert
sala So that's always the dilemma. You keep seeing the
same teams in the top ten in the draft, and
we always blame coaches and quarterbacks, but so often it's
really it's the guys upstairs. I remember years ago, I
(11:54):
was with a friend. I was watching the Phoenix Sun
Chicago Bulls finals, Barkley against Jordan, and I was talking
to a friend of mine. She was a women's really
good women's basketball player, and we were talking about Jordan,
and Jordan was six ' six, wasn't the best shooter
or ball handler as a guard in the NBA, but
he just made things look so easy. And that's what
(12:17):
great players do. Uh. I mean, you watch Shohey Otani
and it just everything looks kind of easy, and you
never see them strained. Watching Derek Carr struggle mightily, just
just everything seems hard. Troy Aikman at one point was
being very kind as he underthrew another deep ball, saying, well,
(12:37):
he threw it as far as he could. Everything with
Mahomes is just it's kind of it's effortless. You know,
mechanics are solid, you would think watching him, but he's
a little loose because Aaron Rodgers can be a little loose.
He's really not. His mechanics are excellent. He's always got
his feet and his hips right. It's just it's just easy,
(13:01):
and that's part of when you're watching a college athlete.
Shaduur Sanders has this at Colorado where he's effortlessly accurate.
He can be moving left, right, forward, back, just any
any platform. Shador Sanders is just it's easy movements, easy accuracies. Easy.
I mean to me, Quinn viewers. Now Texas has been
(13:23):
hurt a couple of times. That worries me. Carson Beck
cam Ward's good but small. You know, you watch Shudr
Sanders and you're like, it's just, you know, he just
moves and throws without great effort. And that's what Mahomes does.
And it was a great contrast to watch Mahomes effortlessly
and Derek Carr straining on anything that was more than
(13:47):
ten yards. For Derek Carr seemed like it was hard.
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Speaker 1 (15:15):
John Middlecoff, as we do every Sunday. Former NFL scout
with the Philadelphia Eagles, three and Out's his podcast. He
joins me every Sunday night. All right, let's talk Chicago
Bears thirty six Carolina Panthers ten. It's an early window game.
So Caleb Williams again every week, looks a little more secure.
Twenty at twenty nine, three hundred yards, a couple of tds.
(15:38):
They jumped out to a twenty seven to seven league.
Swift had a couple of really nice runs. The run
game was okay, but Swift does give you, he gives
you pop. He'll hit on a couple of big runs,
and so you have to be honest. DJ Moore again,
revenge game. And my take watching Caleb is and I
(15:58):
said this before the season, I said, I don't know
if they'll win more than seven games, which is what
Justin Fields won, because I do believe Minnesota, Detroit and
Green Bay the division's better young team's all good. But
I said, you'll feel better about the seven wins. And
I think today because Carolina was playing pretty damn good football.
(16:19):
Two things today. Once again, we have to give Matt
Eberflu some credit. He does. He knows what he's doing
on his side of the ball. Secondly, this team was
playing well Carolina, and I thought, I think they I
think I was thinking about this when you have somebody
that's limited. BONNICKX has some limitations. It makes it easier
(16:40):
on Sean Payton. When you have Caleb and you have
fewer limitations, it may take you several weeks to figure out, Okay,
what am I comfortable with? What am I not comfortable with? Now?
Cliff Kingsbury, who's Washington ZOCI has had several players like
Jaden Daniels, so they got some tree in camp. Yeah,
(17:02):
but you're looking at Waldron. You know, you're at his career.
He never had anything like Caleb, So it feels like
it's just taken the Bears coordinator and staff. Okay, we're
not gonna do this. We're gonna do this. But I
thought I thought Caleb. I looked around today and I'm like, okay.
I mean one time he was running around. It was
almost comical. It looked like a high school thing, and
(17:23):
he didn't get anything out of it. But if I
was a Bears fan today and they only went seven,
I feel like I have a franchise quarterback.
Speaker 3 (17:30):
Yeah to me, you see moments like today. If they
can get him more consistent throwing the ball down the field,
they're gonna be a lot more competitive because when you
have a really good defense, you're gonna be in games.
I just pulled out their schedule because I was thinking, like,
they haven't played any three teams in their division. They
play them all late in the season, Yeah, the Vikings,
the Packers.
Speaker 1 (17:48):
They don't play the Packers till week eleven. Yeah.
Speaker 3 (17:51):
And so you could argue an alliance. You could say, well,
it's gonna be a really tough stretch. But they also
could ben because think how much experience he gets to have,
you know, kind of under his belt, you know, up
to like Thanksgiving or whenever they start playing. They also
play the Niners in there.
Speaker 1 (18:08):
Like if their.
Speaker 3 (18:09):
Offense can hit and he can be explosive down the
field and they can run the ball like that, they
could be a competitive, frisky team that competes in the
wild card. If they had no chance early on with
him overthrowing and not having much confidence in their passing game.
But if they can run the ball and he can
add the explosive play element. Because their defense is when
(18:29):
the dust settles. If they stay healthy, they're gonna be
a top five ish defense in the NFL. And when
you have a great defense, you see this with the
Broncos you see this obviously with the Bears, like your
quarterback doesn't have to have a great game like that's
they could carry you, and all of a sudden, it's
you know, ten ten in the fourth quarter. You just
have to make a player or two. That's always The
Niners got away with a lot of that over the year,
(18:50):
especially with Jimmy Garoppolo. Well they were just being a
thirteen to ten game. Then one big run you win
twenty ten. Right when your defense like today with the
Bengals and the Ravens, both those teams, I would imagine
on Monday.
Speaker 1 (19:02):
We should never go to overtime.
Speaker 3 (19:03):
When we score thirty eight points, we should win the
game by seventeen points when the clock hits double zero.
Speaker 1 (19:09):
That was a wildly entertaining game, but that was defense.
Speaker 3 (19:12):
That was insane. But the Bears don't play like that.
They can rush the pass or they're stout up front
and they get their dbs are really good. I was
texted with a coach who played them early in the season,
an assistant coach. He's like, their defensive backs are good.
So if you have good defensive backs in twenty twenty four,
that's that's the Broncos they have really good defensive backs. Well,
half the teams are obsessed with passing. And watch the Packers,
(19:33):
what do they want to throw the ball? Obviously the
Vikings want to throw the ball. We know the Lions
like throwing the ball. So if you can you know,
defend the pass with DBS and you have a good
pass rush, you're gonna be a serious, serious problem. And
to me, Caleb, you know, perties kind of was doing
this today that hero ball. Yeah, sometimes it's just a
couple of steps, get the rid of the ball and
if nothing's there, just thrown out of bounce. You know,
(19:54):
not everything has to be Lamar can get away with it.
But some of these guys that start doing the three sixties,
I mean that used to be a Russell Wilson thing.
And I think players, you know, on the offensive line
have been like, just get rid of the ball, right,
what are we doing? Because every sweet play you hit,
three or four of them screw up and you get
sacked or you maybe throw a pick or so. I yeah,
(20:15):
I think the Bears the Panthers kind of came back
to Earth today. Yeah, but part of that was the
Bears defense. So I yeah, nice little win.
Speaker 1 (20:23):
So the New York Giants controlled the Seahawks all day,
even when it was ten to ten, and they go
on to beat Seattle twenty nine to twenty blocking a
kick up in the Pacific Northwest. So this was this
is the one game I've lost so far. But as
we do this, I thought Seattle, no Molaitue Neighbors, Singletary
was banged up. But I will tell you when you
(20:43):
watch the Giants, they're old lines and d lines. They've
committed to those in the draft and in acquisitions. I
mean Daniel Jones twenty three to thirty four, two touchdowns,
two fifty seven. He rushed eleven times or carried eleven times. James,
I thought that is as good as Dan and that's
without elite neighbors. John, Like, I watched that today and
(21:07):
I'm not surprised by much Bandy beating Bama. You know,
USC losing, Yeah, yeah, USC losing the way they did
the Giants that was twenty nine to twenty. It it
felt like they were the better team. And you've got
to give this team credit. They have an offensive coach
on like the Jets. Their defensive line is excellent. When
(21:28):
I watched the Giants, I think they're well coached. I
think they're limited. But Daniel Jones, he moves, he's big,
he's healthy. Now, what did you make of that win?
Speaker 3 (21:40):
It's something Oh yeah, well, let's just acknowledge this. You
remove week one when they played Minnesota and got embarrassed.
Dan Jones been pretty good this season, he really has.
He's made a lot of plays. I mean, he made
a bunch of plays against Washington in the game when
they didn't have a kicker. Yeah, and Malik Neighbors. That's
kind of got his start going. I didn't think it
was that bad against the Cowboys. He underthrows some deep balls,
(22:02):
but no one ever like he's not Josh Allen Mahomes.
He's not a deep ball thrower. But he's not turning
the ball over. There was one time I looked up
and he would lowered his shoulder. So, I mean, I
think he's playing just pretty solid. Now, you know, are
they good enough? Like what does that mean?
Speaker 1 (22:20):
I don't know.
Speaker 3 (22:20):
I mean Seattle think about played Monday night in Detroit.
I don't know, what's that flight?
Speaker 1 (22:25):
Four and a half.
Speaker 3 (22:26):
Hours, you lose, you get back kind of your classic
come out the gates. Not playing that hard New York
off a long week because they had just played Thursday.
Looked like the fresher team. Yes, but New York is not.
I don't know. They're more likely in my mind to
win six or seven than nine or ten. But they
are a tough, you know, operation to play right now.
(22:48):
They are not some joke franchise. This is not you know,
I don't know, think of the worst team in the
Miami Patriot game.
Speaker 1 (22:55):
They remind me of Denver. They're squeezing every out out
of their team, and that to me is coaching. I mean,
I watched them today and I'm like, I thought, I'm
like neighbors Singletary, How the hell do they move the
ball now? Again? Seattle is dinged up on the d line.
But when I'm watching Daniel Jones, it's one of those things,
(23:16):
it's just the Hostetler. It's Phil Simms, it's Eli. Even
when they have the right quarterback in New York, it's
never dynamic and pretty. And I love Phil Simms and Eli,
but there's a Hostetler quality to Daniel Jones. And years ago,
when I worked at the other place, I used to
call them the accounting firm of the NFL. Even when
they have a great earnings report. It's boring. They're a
(23:38):
boring team. But I don't think you can deny. We
have to be totally honest about this. Brian Dabole, and
in New York it's just harder to coach. I mean,
if he was going through what Doug Peterson's going through
the last two months, he'd be done. He'd be out
with a Trevor Lawrence. He'd be fired. When I watch
that offense again, I'm watching Sean Payton score thirty fourth
(23:59):
day with bow Nicks. They're just squeezing every ounce. Then
I watched Josh Allen have a terrible day. So I
look at the Giants and I'm like, they have what
kind of the Jets don't, which is a really good
offensive coach. They get the most out of their talent.
There's really no drama. The HBO series didn't help, but
(24:19):
there's not a lot of drama around them. They're boring.
I don't love Daniel Jones, but I will say this,
he'd have a market because of what Brian Daboles done.
He'd have a market. He denver hammered the Raiders thirty
four to eighteen. They now have a better record than
the Jets at three and two with a rookie quarterback
(24:39):
and a roster This was one of my takes this offseason.
The best over bet was Denver because I think their
roster's okay, not great, but they are generating a pass
rush without a Pro Bowl guy up front. And I
watched bo Nicks had a touchdown pass drop today and
this is the difference between the great.
Speaker 3 (24:58):
It was a great throw too.
Speaker 1 (24:59):
Gre Ride is I watch Bonick now? Jaden Daniels is different.
I feel like I'm watching Lamar Jackson light. That's what
I feel like Jayden Daniels. I don't know what b
Nicks's comp is. And I was going to ask you
about this as a former scout. I do think there's
a ceiling. He is smaller, he doesn't have a big
deep arm. It's a little Derek Carr. I think Derek
(25:21):
Carr right now is a better deep arm than bo
Nick does. Do you have a comp for because clearly,
I mean Seawan is doing a Brian Dabole. He's squeezing
every ounce out of this roster. What is Bonick's ceiling?
Who is he to you?
Speaker 3 (25:39):
I think before quarterback inflation he fell under that Derek Carr,
Jimmy Garoppolo, you know, Okay, historically he would have been
a second round pick. Okay, Now he's a better athlete.
And I'm talking to Jimmy when he was decent for
the forty nine ers and Derek, you know, people love
to bag on him. He's had some pretty good years, yes,
for a team that let's face it, no one wins
with me in the race. So and I actually kind
(26:02):
of you know, the Saints, I think they're gonna have
a good season, and he's he's been playing well this season,
so I think he's under that mold. Now he's a
better athlete than both those two guys. Yes, Derek. You know,
when Derek was young, he had a pretty good pop
in his arm. I always say he's got more arm strengthen, boy,
But he'd never had a coach of Shawn's you know level.
(26:26):
He's had a lot of Yeah, So I think that
I think he can be a really good player if
you build up the team. And one thing Sean Payton
has done really the last couple of years of Drew Brees.
When he brought in Dennis out, they became good on defense.
I'm watching him today. We know certain. I mean he's
been a highly recruited guy since he was like fifteen
years old. But they have other dbs flying all over
(26:48):
the feet.
Speaker 1 (26:48):
Yes you are.
Speaker 3 (26:49):
I didn't have the volume on a couple of guys
made plays. I had to look up their names, like
who are these dbs?
Speaker 2 (26:55):
Because they are I get that they're.
Speaker 3 (26:57):
Playing the Raiders and Minshew and O'Connell, but that will okay,
you remove that brock Bowers play early in the game.
Once they got to the second quarter, they took control
and they came out a halftime and that was they.
Speaker 1 (27:09):
Curb stopped them.
Speaker 3 (27:09):
I mean they absolutely throttled them in the second half.
Speaker 1 (27:14):
And they're offensively. Mims looks like a good pick. Javonte
Williams are running back. He can catch it and he
can run it. I think I've always like Courtland Sutton.
Speaker 3 (27:25):
They like the Oregon wide receiver that dropped the ball, Franklin.
Speaker 1 (27:27):
Franklin.
Speaker 3 (27:28):
It's kind of the knock on him right as the hands,
but he unspeat and they played together in college.
Speaker 1 (27:33):
So I kind of look at Denver and are they
a playoff team? John? I look at them like I
look at Chicago. You watch their defense and you're like, okay,
so I have a Super Bowl Trophy coach. Their defense
is much better than people think. It's faster than people think,
(27:54):
like Chicago, and they have a rookie quarterback. The difference
is the NFC North, maybe the best division at football
probably is Whereas the Raiders are a mess, the Chargers,
you cross their fingers they get healthy. The Chiefs are vulnerable.
Though they're on a heater, they're vulnerable. I in fact,
I like the points in the Saints tomorrow. They're just
not beating anybody. Denver is I mean, it's thirty four
(28:18):
eighteen and they dropped the touchdown. I think they're personnel,
you know. I like this GM Patton. I didn't love
the Russell Wilson move, but in fairness, I liked it
when they made it. I didn't know Russell was going
to drop off the cliff. I kind of like Denver's players.
Speaker 3 (28:35):
Well, to me, when you look at the landscape of
the AFC, right the Chiefs, the Texans you know are
going to be there.
Speaker 1 (28:41):
Obviously, the Bills are going to be.
Speaker 3 (28:43):
There right now. The Chargers are the seventh seed, and
just based on injuries, you just know they're gonna have
so many it's gonna be hard to overcome. And if
their quarterback's banged up, they just be screwed. But turns
out Miami sucks. The Jets are I mean a complete
wild card. I mean there's been multiple times this season
when Rogers went down and you're like, is he gonna
(29:03):
get back up? I mean that happened today when he
got ben over. You thought, yeah, is this season over?
And even if his season he plays in all seventeen games,
that they are by no means no lock to win
nine games. The Browns, a playoff team from last year,
is an absolute train wreck right now. I mean has
the worst quarterback situation slack vibes going on right now
because of the negativity surrounding that situation. So I think
(29:27):
you just look at the landscape of the AFC Cincinnati,
who obviously is pretty good. I mean, they got a
pretty special offense. But you start playing a numbers game
all of a sudden, you two and five. How do
you ever get back? You can't. You're not able to
win enough games in a row when you have that
big of a flaw as a defensive football team. That's
what's crazy about the Ravens is like, where did their
(29:47):
defense go? But Cincinnati like that has like they're they're
not good on defense, and it's hard. I don't care
if you got Joe Burrow, Jamar Chason T. Higgins, who
all look fantastic. If your defense is that bad, well,
the Broncos are like, hey, we're gonna have some games
when the throws for seventy five yards and you know what,
we'll when the fucking thing sixteen to thirteen. We got
no problem to do it. Like Cincinnati doesn't even have
that capability. Harbaugh in theory would But Joey bost is
(30:09):
already sitting in a suite. You know, the injuries have
kind of unraveled, and you know you got Herbert limping around.
It's this team. Just the speed of Denver's defense. Oh,
they more of a deep dive on their defensive roster.
I don't even know some of their player besides certain
who is I mean, what does he look like right now?
Like Charles Woodson meets Rod Woodson in this prime? How
good does he look.
Speaker 1 (30:36):
All right? Time for another edition of Sharp or Square
with my buddy Chad Millman, c COO Action Network. All
odds provided by DraftKings. So last year I had a
rough first month and I caught fire. And one of
the reasons I caught fire is I started noticing a
trend in my picks is that I was overthinking the
room and as this league has become more quarterback centric
(30:59):
when all else failed, the best quarterback is winning the games,
regardless of the spread. And that Monday Night's a great example.
Is everything told you, oh, those unlucky Saints, and then
two plays in You're like, I'm betting against Patrick Mahomes
over Derek Carr. So a great example of that to
me this week, I'm gonna inverse it. Aaron Rodgers since
(31:27):
December of twenty twenty two, has had one three hundred
yard game in that time. Davis Mills has had a couple. Okay,
Desmond Ritter has had more than one. Is that because
he's a pretty passer, and we tend to embrace pretty
(31:48):
longer the aging supermodel, we grow up with him. We
can't let pretty go. We can let Peyton Manning was great,
but he wasn't pretty. Aaron's pretty. He's not a very
good quarterback anymore. He's not an efficient quarterback. So Josh
Allen is really good. They're getting a bit healthier. This
(32:10):
is a team that's gone through a chaotic week. They're
still banged up on the offensive line. Josh Allen is
significantly better than Aaron Rodgers. I am swallowing the two
and a half points. I'm going against the high energy
of a interim coach. Let's go backwards. Sharper square.
Speaker 4 (32:27):
I mean, it's square as square as can be. You're
going to take a road favorite in the division. That
is a trend that will work against you over time.
You are going to buy a team. While the Bills
obviously aren't a two game losing streak, You're going against
(32:51):
a team that is much more undervalued in the Jets,
playing at home because they are going through a coaching
change and because there has been all this chaos in
their organization for the past month. So you're really playing
against into what the public wants. The public, by the way,
(33:13):
are betting the Bills at about a eighty five to
ninety percent clip, and that's another time when you want
to fade the public. So it's square. This line has
moved in the Bills direction. All the money is coming,
all the bets are on the Bills. The wise guys
have bet this down to two. It goes back up
(33:35):
to two and a half. They take it again, it
goes back down to two. Wise guys are in their jets.
Speaker 1 (33:42):
I do not believe although I said the Denver Broncos
would be significantly better, they were my choice last year.
I said the Rams are not a six win team.
This year, I said the Broncos personnel offensively is not
a five win team. They're going to win eight or nine,
probably don't make the playoffs. They're not on a three
game heater. That said, bow Nicks against Justin Herbert, who's
(34:04):
healthy with both tackles and offensive coach off of by
Chargers minus two and a half at Denver again, I'll
take the divisional road favorite. It is a mismatchic quarterback.
I do not believe the Denver Broncos are a four
game winning streak team. I am selling them at a
high point. Sharper square, dude.
Speaker 4 (34:24):
There's a couple of games this week where there is
zero consensus and very strong opinions on both sides, and
this is one of those games. I will say that
I'm with you. My favorite co host, Simon Hunter professional
better is with you this line was at three, got
bet down to two and a half, then it goes
(34:46):
back up to three, then it gets bet down. What
that is telling you is that when the game is
at two and a half, professionals, a certain section of
professionals love the Charters, and when the game is at three,
a different group likes the Broncos. And they are basically
just playing each other right now. They are just betting
back and forth, back and forth. And like, what's interesting
(35:08):
about these games, and we've talked a little bit about
this when it comes to people like Jim Harbaugh and
also people like Dan Campbell, they are building from the
inside out. They are building from the line of scrimmage.
And with Harbaugh and Campbell both it's really been about
the offensive line. So Joe All coming back, hopefully Rashaun
(35:29):
Slater coming back for the Chargers. That will mitigate the Broncos'
greatest strength, which is their pass rush, which this year
is top five in pressure rate and is really the
reason why the Broncos have been staying in the games.
They're staying so to me, I like the Chargers here
(35:49):
because I think that they are they have the better quarterback,
and I don't believe in bo Nicks.
Speaker 1 (35:55):
Yet.
Speaker 4 (35:55):
I think they've win with some smoke and mirrors right now,
but it is not going to find a sharp side
or a square side on this. I will say the
Broncos are a very public dog because they've been winning.
The public is coming in. So if you're looking for
how to fade, you do want to fade the Broncos.
Speaker 1 (36:20):
Let's go to London. I think Caleb Williams and his
offensive cohorts went to Shane Waldron and said, we're not
a Pop Warner team. Give us more. Since that time,
Caleb Williams is completing seventy one percent of his throws
and doesn't have a turnover. The Jaguars just got out
(36:40):
of a long losing streak and almost gave that game away.
Whereas the Bears, I can look at them and go
excellent defensive coaching, and I can look at Caleb Williams
and say, ascending young star quarterback. There is nothing about
the Jaguars I can definitively say. I like the Bears
(37:02):
are starting to add to the things. I like, we
know that Iberfluskin coach defense. That's inarguable. It's like Robert Sola,
you don't have to love him. He knew defense. I'm
gonna take the Bears minus one and a half. In London,
favorites do well overseas. Sharper Square favorites.
Speaker 4 (37:18):
Are I think thirty five and ten. I don't know why, right,
And by the way, I think it's something like thirty
fourteen and one against the spread, including this past week
Minnesota beating up on the Jets. Right, So the wise
(37:38):
guys have been betting the Jags in this spot. They're
not fully bought in on the Bears. They feel like
the Bears have beaten bad teams and until the Panthers,
you know, they didn't look that great beating the Colts.
They didn't look that great beating the Rams. I agree
with you what you're seeing about Kayleb Williams. He's definitely
taking steps and it's not like the Jag defense is
(38:01):
anything that is lighting up the league or that people
are afraid of. And to your point, like Doug Peterson
after that touchdown pass to Alec Pearce by Joe Flacco
in that game, I thought Doug Peterson wanted to disappear
into a hole like he was on the balls of
his feet, his elbows, on his knees like he looked devastated,
(38:23):
like I don't know what to do with this team anymore.
So this is not a good team. But they're still
betting the Jags. And I'll be honest with you, it's
all trend based and model based. There is nothing on
the field that makes any professional better look at this
and say, oh, yeah, I gotta take the Jags. This
is where, by the way, your quarterback theory might play out, because.
Speaker 1 (38:46):
Best quarterback wins.
Speaker 4 (38:47):
Yeah, the better quarterback wins. And I don't think there's
anyone who will say that Caleb Williams isn't ascendant and
that Trevor Lawrence is a little bit flataued or even
regressing right now. I think some of the things that
the wise Guy's like, if it's anything, it's about the travel.
There is a very significant trend and record of the
(39:09):
team that has played in London before performing better because
it is so sort of dislocating for both teams that
when you've had that experience it plays to your strength.
Speaker 1 (39:23):
So there's I have this belief when there's a line,
most lines are three to three and a half, two
and a half, six and a half, seven, seven and
a half but when the line's four and a half
to five, what they're telling you is one team is
clearly better. And that tells me that green Bay minus
five is better than Arizona. So I tend to believe
(39:43):
that young quarterbacks Jordan Love still qualifies as that at
home are more comfortable. I think Jordan Love isn't totally healthy,
but I think he's getting there now. Christian Watson practice
this week. I picked green Bay to win the division.
Jordan Love's injury slowed that down. I have seen now
(40:03):
a half here or a half there where they look
really good. I think they put it all together. Arizona
is a celebratory young team that awful win could be flat.
I don't trust them week to week. I would swallow
the points five and take green Bay sharper square totally sharp.
Speaker 4 (40:21):
It's the side. The Cardinals are one of those public teams.
We just talked about it with the Broncos to watch, Yeah,
like they're really fun to watch, and look, they just
had their Super Bowl. Right The Cardinals right now are
in second place in their division and the Niners are
in third because they're both two and three, and the
Cardinals beat the Niners. The challenge with Kyler Murray is
(40:44):
there's so much inconsistency. And we liked what we saw
Trey McBride, but again, like they won that game because
at the end of it, the Niners didn't have a kicker,
and so they had to make really unorthodox decisions when
they were in the red zone when otherwise they might
have been kicking field goals. And if not for a fumble,
(41:07):
the Cardinals don't get the ball back and they don't
get a chance to drive for the game winning kick. Right,
So we have to take some of this cardinal ascendancy
with a little bit of a grain of salt, and
I think I'm seeing the same thing that you are
with the Packers. Number One, Matt Lafleur is a genius
when it comes to scheming. He is clearly going to
be a better coach than Jonathan Gannon is going to be.
(41:30):
And I also think the Packers defense this year, their
defensive backfield, especially very opportunistic. Already more interceptions this year
through that was before last week than they had all
of last year. So while there are still holes in
their defense, they're at least getting the turnovers that they
hadn't be getting in the past, and to me, I
(41:50):
feel like we are three weeks into Jordan Love being back.
This is the first game back where he's not going
to be facing a really challenging defense at home.
Speaker 1 (41:59):
I e.
Speaker 4 (42:00):
Nine Flora's in the Vikings. We saw what they did
in the second half when they made the adjustments and
were able to come back against the Vikings. I agree
with you. Whyse guys agree with you.
Speaker 1 (42:09):
Packers are the side, So Commanders plus six and a
half is my side. Here's why Lamar Jackson eats the
NFC because you can't duplicate esthetically stylistically what he does
in practice, except Washington can they have Lamar Jackson light
so they see Lamar Jackson light in practice every day.
(42:30):
I'm also a believer until you prove otherwise, I'm going
to believe what my eyes tell me. Washington's really good,
way too good to give him six and a half.
If they wouldn't have been the league's tire fire for
a decade, you'd say this line's ridiculous. If anybody else
was playing this well for five weeks, any other team,
(42:54):
maybe outside of Carolina, there would be complete buy in.
There's utter skepticism they're good they have lamar light. Washington's
seen this at practice. I'm taking the point Sharper square.
Speaker 4 (43:08):
So it's square. But when you look at the numbers here,
the betting tickets are on the Commanders. They are the
fly high team that everybody loves right now, there's no
doubt about it. But you can see the money is
on the Ravens. And when you have a split between
(43:29):
tickets and money, tickets represents the public. Money represents the Sharps, right,
and these guys have been looking to sell the Commanders,
so it's very possible they will continue to be wrong
and you are right right because they wanted to sell
the Commanders last week and they lost. They wanted to
sell the Commanders the week before and they lost. They
(43:51):
are going to keep doubling, tripling down on selling the
Commanders until they're eventually right. Matchup wise, this does play
to the Ravens and strengths. They are a tremendous running
team right now, one of the best in the league,
and they are going against a terrible, terrible run defense,
especially in early downs. Now we've said this before the
(44:12):
Ravens last year in the AFC title game. If they
had just run the ball they win that game. Instead,
they put it in Lamar's hands. So you have to
hope that they actually go with the game plan that
will give them the best chance to win. Historically, teams
that are overachieving like the Commanders, and when I say
overachieving meeting, they are covering the point spread by about
(44:35):
five points per game. Those teams going forward in every
game thereafter until there is enough regression that it evens
out cover it about a forty three percent clip. This
is what really worries Ravens betters. Okay, underdogs this year
six plus points, eleven and eight straight up, sixteen to
(44:57):
two to one against the spread. And this is one
of those weeks. We got a few of these games.
We got this one. We got the Patriots, we got
the Browns, we got the Eagles, we got the Panthers
like and the Falcons like. It's a more big spreads
than we've had at any point so far this season.
(45:18):
But here is what's really scaring Ravens backers. You could
see this game, Ravens are up by thirteen, twelve, eleven, ten, nine, eight, seven,
any number like that, and the back door is wide open,
and the Ravens pass defense is soft and Jayden Daniels
(45:40):
will not quit. This Commander's team will not quit. They
might not they might know they're not going to win
the game, but they might score that back door. So
it's a it's going to be a sweat. It is
not going to be a oh yeah, it's a blowout.
And by the middle of the third quarter, Ravens betters
feel like they can, you know, turn on a cooking show.
Speaker 1 (46:01):
Okay. One thing that almost guarantees consistency college or pro
football is a really good offensive line. You kind of
get the same Detroit team every weekend. People just don't
quite realize how good the New York Giants offensive line is.
That Seattle game wasn't close. I don't care what the
(46:23):
score was. Mike McDonald's team couldn't get them off the field.
Danny Dimes doesn't turn the ball over without Molik Neighbors,
without Singletary, completely controlled the line of scrimmage. They're not
as good as Detroit, but Cincinnati can't stop anything. And
(46:45):
this very quietly because it's been so bad for so
many years. This Giant's O line reminds me of the
Giants D line. It controls most of the teams it plays.
I'm taking the three and a half points New York
plus three and a half at home. Sharper square, totally sharp.
Speaker 4 (47:03):
I'm surprised you chose this one, not because I don't
have faith in your ability to be super sharp, because
you truly are a maven of the media, a master
of content, and a man who understands where the audience
is going and what they want to hear. But this
just felt like the kind of game you'd want to
(47:24):
ignore unless it's a primetime game. But you're one hundred
percent right. The Wise guys are on the Giants here
this line. Actually it opened at three and a half,
and like you can see in the Jews, the vague,
the commission, the way the bookmakers start to play with
those things. Normally the numbers at minus one ten. When
it starts to go up minus one fifteen minus one twenty,
(47:49):
that's basically them saying to you, all right, it's going
to move or the other side plus one fifteen plus
one twenty, this number is going to move to three.
And that's because the Wise guys are buying hook the
half a point for the Giants because they feel the
same way you do. They think this team has been
balling out lately. Daniel Jones has been playing much better.
(48:09):
Brian Dayball has been calling great game plans the past
couple of weeks. And look like, go back, what was
it three weeks ago? They're playing the Commanders. They don't
score any touchdowns and like that's why they lose that game.
I know it's a weird thing to say, oh, look,
this team is better than you think, but one ball
(48:31):
bounces a different way, and the Commanders aren't even six
and a half point underdogs, they're more. And no one's saying, oh,
the Giants really shouldn't be any more than the Giants.
They're saying the Giant shouldn't be any more than a
field goal against the Bengals at home. So that's that's
an interesting pick by you.
Speaker 1 (48:51):
So let's go to the best offensive line in football, Detroit.
So this line was at three and a half and
I said on the air on FS one, if it
comes down to three, I'm taking Detroit. So a couple things.
Dallas is the Arizona Cardinals or the Buffalo Bills of
the league. I'm not really sure what team I get,
just depends on the matchup and the mood. I get
(49:12):
the same. And that's because Dallas has a very left tackle,
revolving door injuries. You don't know what they are with
their offensive line. It's matchup based. Detroit's a better team.
Detroit is a completely consistent team. Listen, they give up
yards they do on the back end. I mean Gino
Smith had thirty eight first downs against them, and that
(49:34):
worries me. But Hutchison and the tackle, the left tackle
for Dallas, yikes. Yeah, I know it's a road favorite,
but at three Sharper square, I like Detroit.
Speaker 4 (49:47):
Well, it's not sharp, right, Nobody in their right mind
is going to say, as a professional better, Yes, the
right side here is the road favorite and the publics
side playing in Dallas. But you said something that is
so on point, and you talk about quarterbacks and bad
(50:11):
quarterbacks and good quarterbacks as being sort of a decision
maker for you. For me, more and more, it's becoming
about who controls the line of scrimmage because to me,
that is the most consistent and dependable way a team
can define performance and live up to expectations. Right, there's
going to be some matchup issue at some point on
(50:34):
the edges or running back may get hurt. A quarterback
is having a bad game, but offensive line, defensive line
consistency is pretty easy to mark. Lions their top five,
top two dominant, not just as an offensive line but
as a defensive line. But when you look at their
offensive line across the board, like this is why this
(50:57):
team is a top five overall offensive team right now.
And to me, what's really fascinating is you look at
the Jared Goff game. He went eighteen for eighteen, but
it wasn't Jared Goff going thirty five of forty for
four hundred yards and four touchdowns working outside of the
(51:18):
offense because it was a you know, a shootout, Jared
Goff working within the confines of the offense. Ben Johnson
calling a great game. Dan Campbell clearly has said we're
not ourselves these first few games. Let's get back to basics.
Football is a violent game. We are built to be violent.
So to me, every advanced metric that every geek can
(51:41):
think of favors the LIGHTNS here and every other metric.
When you look at the Cowboys and you shake it out,
it basically says their defense, especially against the run, is trash.
I don't know if the wise guys will be with you.
I know I will be. We're making an executive decision, Colin.
We're going with the lines.
Speaker 1 (52:03):
The college game of the year is Oregon getting about
a field goal. It was like four, now it's down
to three against Ohio State. I think they could meet
in the playoff. I think Eugene they've won thirty four
or thirty five at home. Dylan Gabriel's having completing almost
eighty percent of his throws. They have their own line, right.
I think Ohio State's better, but I think putting kids.
I mean, if you go look at Ohio State against
(52:24):
top ten teams, they've actually not been very good the
last three years. I think I would take Oregon in
the points sharper square.
Speaker 4 (52:32):
Yeah, I would too. I think that the quarterback play
for Ohio State is eh. You know, the reason why
their receivers keep making so many fantastic catches is because
the throws aren't always that good. And you know, it's interesting,
what did Nick Saban say on game day? He's like,
you spend twenty million, it doesn't really matter. You got
to spend the right twenty million on the right guys.
(52:54):
And I think this is the beginning of a gauntlet
for Ohio State. They spent that twenty million at probably
right before they're about to have the hardest schedule that
they have had in years to get to a national
championship contending position. I think we all believe they'll make
the playoff, but it's no guarantee. You got Oregon, Ohio State,
(53:16):
Penn State two, three four. Like that Big ten now
is brutal, So I agree with you. I like Oregon.
Speaker 1 (53:27):
The volume. Thanks so much for listening. If you've enjoyed
the podcast, take a moment rate and review
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