December 6, 2024 • 32 mins
Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network and host of “The Favorites” podcast, joins the show for a round of “Sharp or Square,” to help provide Colin with the sharpest betting advice for week 14 of the NFL slate, plus they break down two of the top storylines from college football!
3:30 - Bills vs Rams
7:00 - Dolphins vs Jets
9:45 - Chiefs vs Chargers
12:30 - Raiders vs Buccaneers
14:30 - Steelers vs Browns
17:00 - Falcons vs Vikings
25:45 - Georgia vs Texas
30:00 - Ryan Day on the hotseat?
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
The volume.
Speaker 2 (00:04):
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Speaker 1 (01:05):
All right?
Speaker 2 (01:05):
It is time for a standalone feature we call Sharper Square.
Chad Millman co host of the Favorites. All odds provided
by DraftKings. We all try to get smarter on this,
and I take as is customary. I take Thanksgiving off.
It's a short week. It's weird. I tend to like
favorites in those big spots. Although the Bears should have
beaten the Lions. You never know what's going to happen
this week. It's interesting. So last week I would have
(01:26):
bet a lot of underdogs. This week a lot. I
like a lot of favorites. Don't give you an example.
Speaker 1 (01:31):
Is I.
Speaker 2 (01:34):
Really like the Bills minus at one point four now
minus three and a half at the Rams. Matt Stafford's
beat up Buffalo is getting healthier on defense. Buffalo is
a really good team. They have two things now that travel.
One of them is a run game, which is why
they used to be. If you watch Buffalo through the years,
(01:55):
they were a little hot and cold when they got
out of their element because they didn't have a run game.
Defences and run games travel. This has become a very
consistent team. The Rams, meanwhile, have not run as well
because of some online injuries, and they're wildly half to
half inconsistent. I like the Bills minus four or three
(02:15):
and a half sharper square.
Speaker 1 (02:18):
Colin, this is why the Favorites is on the Volume
podcast network. You just summarized exactly what Simon and I
have been saying about this game in our shows this week,
and we surprised ourselves. You said couple things about favorites.
(02:40):
We like a lot of favorites this week, yea, and
we loved underdogs last week, and it's surprising us that
the Bills are one of those teams. The Bill's number
has been bouncing four to three and a half, four
to three and a half. At four, the wise guys
are generally buying the Rams. At three and a half,
they're taking the Bills again. But you could also just
(03:02):
as easily find people in professional ranks who like the
Bills at minus four. I can't add anything to the
analysis you just said. It's exactly why there is a
consistency to this team that hasn't been there in the past.
The run game is dominant, The Rams rush defense is
not very good. The Rams are not just inconsistent half
(03:24):
to half, they're inconsistent series to series. You can see
it against the Saints. You saw it the week before
where they barely beat the Patriots like they have a
couple great series and then they disappear for full quarters
of the game. Last week it's the Saint They can
score in the first half. So your handicap is exactly
(03:47):
exactly right. The one thing that is worrying professional betters
here is the Bills just beat the Chiefs, then they
just beat the Niners, and out of this they got
to go play the Steelers like they're in a gauntlet
right now. This is a classic letdown spot. I don't
think that'll be the case because I do think that
(04:09):
what you just said about running game and defense travels.
I'm a big believer in he who owns the line
of scrimmage owns the spread. So I'm giving you a
seventy five percent sharp, not ginz you knife sharp, but sharp.
Speaker 2 (04:28):
Here's another favorite I like. So I think this is
one of the biggest coaching mismatches of the week. Miami
minus five and a half against the Jets. When Robert
Sala left the building, they lost their only elite football coach.
It is a bad staff. It is a quarterback that
has not regressed to Kirk Cousins level last week, but
(04:48):
has regressed Aaron is not a top fifteen quarterback. Miami
has to win. They're at home. I think it's an
excellent coaching staff with some limitations. North with you get
Tua back home five and a half. If you told
me one game's a blowout this week, I mean I'm watching.
I'm watching the Jets blow games to Denver and Seattle
(05:10):
at home. Let's not forget what Miami is. North against
green Bay short week that was one of the easy
bets of the year. Come home, superior staff. I think
they hammer the Jets sharper square.
Speaker 1 (05:24):
So it's square. But I'll tell you what you're right
and like Miami is one of the biggest bets I've
made this weekend. It's one of the biggest bets Simon
has made this weekend. I can't understand the move on this.
It's gone from seven to six and a half to six.
In some places, you're saying five and a half, like
(05:45):
it makes no sense. It makes no sense that professional
money keeps coming in on the Jets, and it's been
happening literally every single week. The last time the Jets
were underdogs was Week six the Bills. They were one
and a half point underdogs, and that line moved in
their favor like if the game had been twenty four
(06:07):
hours later, it might have been pick. And it's not
like their favorites against bad teams. They were favorites against Houston,
they were favorites against Arizona, they were favorites against Pittsburgh.
Like this is a bad team since Robert Sala was
fired as coach thirty first in EPA for play Like
(06:27):
they are a very very bad football team right now.
Aaron Rodgers is not mobile. And you're looking at a
Dolphins team you just said with Tua when they're home
and they're playing a bad team. So a team that
has a winning percentage of two fifty or less, which
is what the Jets have to seven and one against
the spread in his career. This is not a team
(06:49):
that underperforms against bad teams. This is when they actually
do their best. So I'm with you, and like, all
I would say is if you like the Dolphins, you
might want a way to beat because as the line
might continue to move, the Jets get big money every
single Sunday. It is astonishing. I don't understand it.
Speaker 2 (07:10):
Let me throw you another favorite Kansas City at home
minus four against the Chargers so there are certain teams
that match up with Kansas City teams that can beat
them down the field. Denver, for instance, Mims Courtland Sutton
can force them to be more honest. Okay, the Chargers
lack playmakers and now the ones they have are Hurt
Lad mcconkey's hurt JK. Dopp. There is no pop and
(07:35):
that allows Spags to be even more aggressive when you
play a Buffalo. I think Denver's one of these teams
that I don't think we get how good they are.
They can really punish you down the field. The Chargers can't.
This is a bad spot for a dinged up Chargers team.
Kansas City minus four is my second third favorite pick
of the weekend.
Speaker 1 (07:54):
Sharper Square totally sharp and it's rare that the wise
guys would come in on Kansas City as a plus
a field go favorite in the division against a team
like the Chargers, which historically you get a team like
the Chargers. They're physical at the line of scrimmage, they
have a really good coach, the quarterback doesn't make mistakes.
(08:16):
That's what you want to bet on if you're a professional.
Better against a very public team like the Kansas City
Chiefs when Patrick Mahomes in his career as a favorite
of three or more is historically under five hundred against
the spread about forty five forty six percent. But what's
happening here is exactly what you said. Ever since JK.
Dobbins went out against the Ravens at the end of
(08:37):
that first half, the Chargers have not been able to
move the ball. Justin Herbert had been using play action
considerably more since he came back from the by and
his high ankle spray had improved. That's because JK. Dobbins
was in the backfield. He was able to pull linebackers up.
He was able to get more throwing windows, specifically to
(08:58):
Lad McConkie to Will Disley. Right JK Dobbins goes out,
they lose all downfield passing ability against the Ravens, and
then last week they only had fifty six yard rushing
yards rushing against the Falcons in a game that they
easily could have lost if Kirk Cousins wasn't doing his
own Southern version of Aaron Rodgers. So it's a real
(09:19):
tricky spot for them. JK. Dobbins still out. Lad McConkie
limited in practice this week with continuing shoulder injury and
now a new injury to his knee. I agree with you.
The wise guys agree with you. The Chiefs. Meanwhile, they
may start DJ Humphries, which would be an incredible improvement
at left tackle. They had three guys on the injury
(09:41):
report coming out of Wednesday. All of them were full
participants in practice. They had a little bit of a
mini buy. I think they'll recognize that they've been plateauing
a little bit and get an opportunity to get healthy.
The wise guys agree with you very sharp.
Speaker 2 (09:58):
So I'm gonna give you one more favorite, and they'll
go into some underdogs. So the Raiders played ten rookies.
They're beat up and they're just playing kids, and they
play hard, but disappointing loss after disappointing loss. Tampa meanwhile
played poorly and won. I love teams that play poorly
(10:18):
and win the following week. Sean Payton Ellis told me,
it's always the best week of practice. You can dog
cuss them all week, but they're happy because they won.
Tampa's good team. Jason Light's always been able to stack
this roster. Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold. We have to
be honest. Now they can play when you give them
the right coach. It can be a Liam Cohen, it
can be a Kevin O'Connell. Guys can sling it. They're good.
(10:41):
Tampa is playing. They have to beat Atlanta outright, because
Atlanta beat them twice. So these are playoff games for Tampa.
The Raiders are playing kids. They're sitting there, Antonio Pearson,
Tom Telesco, They're looking at film. They're trying to judge.
They're already on the next year. I know a six
and a half, but I like the Bucks sharper square, So.
Speaker 1 (11:04):
It's square but square. Because of the number, it moved
from seven to six and a half, I think the
wise guys continue to want to play the Raiders when
it's a big number. They feel like the Bucks will
continue to let teams that aren't as good stay in it. Baker,
(11:27):
as much as he's balling out and I think has
earned a lot of respect from fans, from media, from
his teammates, he's still prone to make mistakes. We saw
it against the Panthers, two critical interceptions. So this is
really about the number. It's not about anything on the field.
They're just looking at it and saying seven fields like
(11:49):
inflation for the Bucks.
Speaker 2 (11:55):
I'd like to say I like this underdog. I really don't,
but it's screaming at me. So I think the Steelers
are going to beat the Browns, but I don't think
Jamis Winston is going to have another two pick six game.
And frankly, in a division rivalry, Cleveland matches up with Pittsburgh. Hell,
(12:19):
they matched up and had Denver I thought beat. I
think Cleveland's got a good roster and a really good coach.
Six and a half seems to me the number should
be three and a half, four and a half. I'm
going to take Cleveland plus six and a half. Sharper square,
totally sharp. This shouldn't even be a question. Everything that
you're sort of half in on is one hundred percent right.
Speaker 1 (12:44):
Number one. This is a division game in the AFC North.
These games always tend to be closer than what this
spread should be and favor the underdog. Also Mike Tomlin.
Mike Tomlin as an underdog is brilliant. It is a
raw rab Mike Tomlin spot when he is on the
(13:05):
road as an underdog, when he is at home as
an underdog, he is the most profitable coach as an
underdog this generation the past twenty years, often winning times
straight up. Forget about just covering the spread. As great
as he is as an underdog is as ineffective he
is as a favorite. Now he's a six and a
(13:26):
half point favorite. We're talking about forty five percent against
the spread in similar scenarios throughout his career. And look,
Jamis is one of those guys. Last week I loved
the Broncos because Jamis was so good the week before.
I tend to want to fade Jamis after he's been great.
(13:48):
And while it took two pick sixes and an interception
in the end zone to get there, what we expected
to happen with Jamis is exactly what happened when Jamis
is off of a loss, that is when he is
great against the spread. And I do think that there
has to be some kind of aggression on Russell Wilson's
ability to throw these moonballs and consistently have them caught
(14:11):
in crazy, crazy circumstances. So the wise guys are with
you take the Browns plus six and a half.
Speaker 2 (14:18):
So a game, there's a game every week. I say, hey,
I just want to ask you about and I look
at the Falcons plus six Minnesota, Kirk Cousins was he
looked like if Justin Verlander threw an eighty one mom
(14:39):
hour fastball. What am I watching? Is it an injury
in the last two weeks. Something's off. So older players
get hurt more. They play with pride and play through injuries.
Aaron Rodgers' stories, You've heard about Kirk Cousins. This is
just screaming take the Vikings. But again, Atlanta is playing
(15:01):
to win the division. Kirk Cousins can't play like that. Again,
the protection will be good. Kirk can handle Brian Flores coverages.
He's seen everything. Tell me where I'm supposed to go
with that number, Minnesota.
Speaker 1 (15:17):
This number has been moving up. The only concern you
should have is that you're not getting the best of
the number. Because it opened at five, it went to
five and a half streaming towards six. I disagree that
Kirk Cousins can handle what Brian Flores is going to
throw at him. Brian Flora's defense is exactly what troubles
(15:39):
Kirk Cousins against pressure. He has the most turnover worthy
throws in the NFL this year. And don't forget this
Vikings defense is incredible against the run. They're incredible against
the run outside the tackles, They're incredible against the run
inside the tackles. They are really efficient in stopping the run.
(16:01):
The strength of the Falcons right now, it's Bjon Robinson right.
Nobody can figure out what to do with Kyle Pitts.
The next coach, coordinator, quarterback who can figure out what
to do with Kyle Pitts could end up going to
the Hall of Fame because all we ever hear about
is Kyle Pitts is the weapon who can unlock the
Atlanta Falcons offense and nobody has been able to figure
out how to do it. And Kirk Cousins since that
(16:24):
streaky start seventeen touchdowns, seven interceptions to start the year,
the past three games since they started six and three,
zero touchdown passes, six interceptions, seven sacks, And let's not
forget he had nearly eight hundred yards and eight touchdowns
in two of those first nine games against the tenth
(16:47):
Bay Buccaneers. So let's not sort of, let's not confuse
ourselves into believing that Kirk Cousins is just having a
little bit of a bad rough patch right now, he's
just I'm not mobile, and he's not playing well, and
he's had two good games that have made the numbers
look really good. So the wise guys like Minnesota here.
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Speaker 2 (18:40):
All right, a little shift up. I'm I want to
talk one college game. So these are my instincts. This
is my favorite college bat of the weekend. Georgia plays Texas.
I like the over. Here's why Georgia played an eight
overtime game. Okay, that doesn't affect the offense. Carson Beck's
had three straight games, eleven touchdowns, no picks. He's fine.
(19:00):
It decimates a defense. You play an extra twenty eight snaps.
Georgia looked tired last week against Georgia Tech. They're going
to be banged up. Also, Texas got humiliated up front
offensively in Austin. They have something to prove. They also
played their worst offensive game of the year last week
against Texas A and M, so Texas is going to
(19:23):
play inspired offensive football. Georgia's defense is done, but their
offense is still. You know, these are the two best
quarterbacks in the SEC, Carson Beck and Quinn Ewers in
terms of like efficiency. I love the over in this game.
I think it actually ends up being a kind of
just a wild shootout with a Georgia defense that just
(19:47):
is out of gas. The over underlying DraftKings. I don't
know what it is exactly right now. If you find it,
you can tell me. But that's my favorite college bet
in weeks.
Speaker 1 (20:00):
It's interesting. Chris Long, who has a brilliant podcast, the
green Light Podcast. He makes great points about the challenge
of overtime on an NFL player, and that literally every
hour of recovery matters when you are playing in the NFL.
(20:21):
And if you got the four pm game and it
ends at eight because your game went into overtime, that's
a real impact on your body and your ability to recover.
I know the game for Georgia and Georgia Tech was
on Friday night, but I'm not discounting the impact of
an overtime game like that because I do think that
(20:42):
it's really really hard on the body, and I do
think these offenses are both primed to blow up, So
don't I don't hate your pick and a half.
Speaker 2 (20:52):
Forty nine and a half. That is not a big number, not.
Speaker 1 (20:56):
A big number at all. Like I was looking it
up as you were looking up as well when you
were talking about it, I didn't have it at the
top of my head. In my head it was fifty one.
So just thinking about these teams, forty nine and a
half feels a little bit low. Now I'm looking in
the app and I'm seeing do I have any total
(21:16):
picks right now? I don't. Uh no, pit wait, let's
see one thing here. You know what I got. I
got one under And that said so far from sort
of the experts.
Speaker 2 (21:33):
Okay, let's be different.
Speaker 1 (21:35):
Let's be different and take the over.
Speaker 2 (21:37):
The you know what's funny about college football. So I
had Notre Dame to cover. I had Oregon to cover.
I had Ohio State to cover. You know, it's funny,
and I've lived off this my entire career. New information,
new opinion. I don't think it's flip flopping. I always say,
(21:58):
if you were getting on a flow and the pilot said, listen,
we've had a weather change. But instead of a new
flight plan, I'm gonna fly right into the lightning storm,
you'd be like, that's not smart, right, Like I don't
understand like bloggers or media critics who are like you
changed your mind every day of my life. I changed
(22:20):
my mind because I'm curious and I seek new information.
I sell stocks regularly new information. So it's funny about
Ohio State. I said, I always had Ryan Day as
a coach that could win a national championship, but that
coaching was so weird that I have eliminated him from
(22:42):
that category, where now I have like Lane Kiffin, Sark,
Kaylin de boor Dan Lanning. You know guys I think
can win a national championship, they just haven't yet. They're
good coaches. I had Ryan Dan that Now I think
to myself, okay, that's that's hyperbolic, that's overreacting. But there
are there are things you want. I always used the
example when Randy Moss played for the Patriots and it
(23:04):
had been a couple of years. One Monday night game
against Miami, they literally didn't target him, and I said, oh,
this is his last game as Patriot. And I went
on the next day and said, people are like, you're overreacting.
I'm like, you do not target Randy Moss once in
a football game with Tom Brady. Somebody's pissed off, somebody
got he was probably close to a DNP. Something's going well.
(23:28):
Sure enough he moved. Watching that game was so seismic
to me. I'm like, I I thought Ryan Day was
coaching to prove a point. That was as bad a
coaching as I've ever seen in a big spot.
Speaker 1 (23:43):
You nailed it. You and I had this conversation before
Thanksgiving about Ryan Day and about the pressure he is
under and how there's not a single coach in the
playoff who, unless they win the National Championship, wouldn't be
back next year. Only Ryan Day has that kind of pressure.
(24:05):
He has not been coaching well in big games his
entire career, four straight losses to Michigan, and this game
exactly what you just said. I think is true. It
felt like he was coaching. And again, he doesn't call
the plays, it's Chip Kelly calling the plays. But the
way the team performed, it felt like he was trying
(24:27):
to prove they're super strong, they're super physical, They're going
to punch him in the mouth, and all the aggression
he's been feeling for years is coming out in that game.
And then at the end, his team is getting into
a fistfight with the Michigan team and he's standing there
and just asking what's happening, what's going on? Like it's
(24:49):
just I can't imagine he's back in Ohio State next year.
And I know I don't like talking about people's jobs.
Nobody does. But he has not performed at the level
of expectation.
Speaker 2 (25:05):
If he'd great, if he lost to Josh Heipel in
the first round, I think he'd be in big trouble.
Speaker 1 (25:12):
I think if he doesn't win a national title, he's
in big trouble. Look, Colin, they spend twenty million dollars,
They got Jim Knowles, who's a legendary defensive coordinator. They
got Chip Kelly, who revolutionized the game. They can go
into the portal get anybody they want. They can recruit
anybody they want. They've lost two games this year, the
(25:36):
first game of the year that they had six months
to prepare for, and they got railroaded, and they got
beat up in a fistfight with a team that is
incredibly overmatched in terms of talent, and they lost at
home to the to a team that they had been
(25:57):
thinking about beating for three hundred and sixty four days.
You can't keep that guy if he doesn't win a
national title.
Speaker 2 (26:05):
Yeah, I would, but I think him in the minority.
I think if he lost to Tennessee, I'd struggle. But
if I think if he won a couple of games
and let's say lost to Texas in you know, the
final four in overtime, I'd be like, okay, Texas. I mean,
the only two teams I've seen. I think we don't
have a great team in college football. But I thought
(26:26):
before last weekend Texas and Oregon were really good, and
so is Ohio State. Those are really good teams. Very
rarely in college football do you get a great team.
The Joe Burrow team with you know, justin Jefferson jamar
Ch that's a great team. The Reggie Bush teams a
couple of those were insane. Miami had a team at
the end of the Butch Davis run. They had like
twenty two NFL guys, the Lawrence Phillips Tommy Fraser Nebraska team,
(26:50):
the seventy two USC Trojans. You get these teams that
are like, oh god, you know this. This is a
year full of good to very good teams. But people
forget this too. I mean, Ohio State struggled at Penn State.
That was a clunky win. It was an inartistic clunky
(27:11):
win there and I and maybe a Penn State will
prove me wrong, but I think Oregon beats on this weekend,
so I I listen. Here's all you need to know
about coaching is a team overperforming or underperforming. Ohio State
has underperformed as much as any big name program this year.
Speaker 1 (27:29):
Yeah, everything you just said says to me you think
he shouldn't come back unless he went to the national title.
I feel like you're.
Speaker 2 (27:41):
Well, I don't being soft all of a sudden, there's
no great coach in the offing. There is. I mean,
Urban Meyer would be my choice. I don't think he'll
come back. I the first thing I asked, I don't
care if it's the volume, I don't care if it's
as an athletic director. The first thing is, well, what's
what's the hiring market? Like? I don't like making moves
(28:03):
like I even even you know, I've dinked around with
real estate and you know, always calls me like I'm
the circler. I'll circle something for you. I'll drive by
the property in the morning, I'll drive by at night,
I'll drive by on the weekends. I'll circle. I'm somebody
that's I wouldn't say cautious, but I tend to circle
stuff before I do it. So the first thing I
would do if I'm the athletic director is all right,
(28:24):
what's the market like? And some years you get Brian
Kelly's available and you're like, you know, there are years
like last year in the NFL, there was one good
NFL opening, the Chargers because of Justin Herbert. They had
a left tackle, they had a quarterback, they had a
Bosa rushing off the edge, they had a great safety.
You're like, that's a pretty good job. And it's in LA, right,
(28:44):
you can get free agents. But like this year in
the NFL, Chicago's the best job mccaskey's are the poorest
owners own it since the twenties. I'm not sure if
Kevin Warren at president is the right guy. We don't
know much about Ryan Poles, like that's the best job.
So there's not a lot of great job openings and
(29:06):
there's not a lot of great candidates, and so to me,
it's like I would keep Ryan Day and I would
just keep my eye out if he you know, I
would say this, I'm on warning now we're going into
a season I have been. I may have gone into
this season thinking he's here forever. I go into next
(29:26):
says and thinking stubs his toe, I'm gonna make calls.
That's how I would do it.
Speaker 1 (29:32):
Ohio State is one of the two three best coaching jobs.
Speaker 2 (29:38):
Oh got in college football, right, yeah, Oh, absolutely right,
top two.
Speaker 1 (29:42):
Yeah. You think if they got rid of Ryan Day,
they couldn't pry one of the best coaches from another
program away. Well, look at what Like, I'm not saying
that Washington was a top notch program, but Washington had
been built quickly by Kaylin de Boor and they were
International title game last year. Nick Saban unexpectedly retires. They
(30:08):
got him immediately and so I don't believe that Ohio
State would not fire Ryan Day just because they don't
think they can find a candidate. They can get anybody
they want. They might be able to go into the
NFL and get a great candidate who is a top
notch coach who's dreamed of coach. They could get Mike Rabel, right.
(30:28):
I'm just saying, like, not knowing the current candidate pool
wouldn't stop me from doing it because Ohio State is
such a good job. The candidate pool is everybody.
Speaker 2 (30:40):
Yeah, Gruden may be toxic to NFL people, but he's
not toxic in college football. I would call John Gruden
tomorrow for the Ohio ESK job.
Speaker 1 (30:47):
And Gruden would crush that.
Speaker 2 (30:50):
Yes, that would be my choice because I you know,
there's some I think he still has a lawsuit or
something of the NFL and there's some toxicity there, but
college doesn't care. What do they care?
Speaker 1 (31:00):
And he I mean, are you kidding me? A football
guy like Gruden.
Speaker 2 (31:03):
And he's also a big personality.
Speaker 1 (31:05):
He'd be a great recruiter, great recruiter, great with boosters.
Whatever ni OWL money they have would get bigger like.
Speaker 2 (31:13):
And he's also he you know, he likes personnel, like
Andy Reid has no interest, but there are you know,
McVeigh has interest. Sean Payton likes personnel, Jimmy Johnson did
Gruden likes personnel. He enjoys the process of recruiting and
judging players. So yeah, I mean that that would be
my first choice. Urban's my first choice. But he's been
there and he's got a job.
Speaker 1 (31:33):
I feel like you're coming around. I feel like you're
coming around to the idea that there's there could be
a candidate out there if Ohio State decided they wanted
to go find a new coach.
Speaker 2 (31:43):
Chad Millman, Sharper Square, good talk to anybody.
Speaker 1 (31:47):
Good to see your brother.
Speaker 2 (31:50):
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Speaker 1 (01:05):
All right?
Speaker 2 (01:05):
It is time for a standalone feature we call Sharper Square.
Chad Millman co host of the Favorites. All odds provided
by DraftKings. We all try to get smarter on this,
and I take as is customary. I take Thanksgiving off.
It's a short week. It's weird. I tend to like
favorites in those big spots. Although the Bears should have
beaten the Lions. You never know what's going to happen
this week. It's interesting. So last week I would have
(01:26):
bet a lot of underdogs. This week a lot. I
like a lot of favorites. Don't give you an example.
Speaker 1 (01:31):
Is I.
Speaker 2 (01:34):
Really like the Bills minus at one point four now
minus three and a half at the Rams. Matt Stafford's
beat up Buffalo is getting healthier on defense. Buffalo is
a really good team. They have two things now that travel.
One of them is a run game, which is why
they used to be. If you watch Buffalo through the years,
(01:55):
they were a little hot and cold when they got
out of their element because they didn't have a run game.
Defences and run games travel. This has become a very
consistent team. The Rams, meanwhile, have not run as well
because of some online injuries, and they're wildly half to
half inconsistent. I like the Bills minus four or three
(02:15):
and a half sharper square.
Speaker 1 (02:18):
Colin, this is why the Favorites is on the Volume
podcast network. You just summarized exactly what Simon and I
have been saying about this game in our shows this week,
and we surprised ourselves. You said couple things about favorites.
(02:40):
We like a lot of favorites this week, yea, and
we loved underdogs last week, and it's surprising us that
the Bills are one of those teams. The Bill's number
has been bouncing four to three and a half, four
to three and a half. At four, the wise guys
are generally buying the Rams. At three and a half,
they're taking the Bills again. But you could also just
(03:02):
as easily find people in professional ranks who like the
Bills at minus four. I can't add anything to the
analysis you just said. It's exactly why there is a
consistency to this team that hasn't been there in the past.
The run game is dominant, The Rams rush defense is
not very good. The Rams are not just inconsistent half
(03:24):
to half, they're inconsistent series to series. You can see
it against the Saints. You saw it the week before
where they barely beat the Patriots like they have a
couple great series and then they disappear for full quarters
of the game. Last week it's the Saint They can
score in the first half. So your handicap is exactly
(03:47):
exactly right. The one thing that is worrying professional betters
here is the Bills just beat the Chiefs, then they
just beat the Niners, and out of this they got
to go play the Steelers like they're in a gauntlet
right now. This is a classic letdown spot. I don't
think that'll be the case because I do think that
(04:09):
what you just said about running game and defense travels.
I'm a big believer in he who owns the line
of scrimmage owns the spread. So I'm giving you a
seventy five percent sharp, not ginz you knife sharp, but sharp.
Speaker 2 (04:28):
Here's another favorite I like. So I think this is
one of the biggest coaching mismatches of the week. Miami
minus five and a half against the Jets. When Robert
Sala left the building, they lost their only elite football coach.
It is a bad staff. It is a quarterback that
has not regressed to Kirk Cousins level last week, but
(04:48):
has regressed Aaron is not a top fifteen quarterback. Miami
has to win. They're at home. I think it's an
excellent coaching staff with some limitations. North with you get
Tua back home five and a half. If you told
me one game's a blowout this week, I mean I'm watching.
I'm watching the Jets blow games to Denver and Seattle
(05:10):
at home. Let's not forget what Miami is. North against
green Bay short week that was one of the easy
bets of the year. Come home, superior staff. I think
they hammer the Jets sharper square.
Speaker 1 (05:24):
So it's square. But I'll tell you what you're right
and like Miami is one of the biggest bets I've
made this weekend. It's one of the biggest bets Simon
has made this weekend. I can't understand the move on this.
It's gone from seven to six and a half to six.
In some places, you're saying five and a half, like
(05:45):
it makes no sense. It makes no sense that professional
money keeps coming in on the Jets, and it's been
happening literally every single week. The last time the Jets
were underdogs was Week six the Bills. They were one
and a half point underdogs, and that line moved in
their favor like if the game had been twenty four
(06:07):
hours later, it might have been pick. And it's not
like their favorites against bad teams. They were favorites against Houston,
they were favorites against Arizona, they were favorites against Pittsburgh.
Like this is a bad team since Robert Sala was
fired as coach thirty first in EPA for play Like
(06:27):
they are a very very bad football team right now.
Aaron Rodgers is not mobile. And you're looking at a
Dolphins team you just said with Tua when they're home
and they're playing a bad team. So a team that
has a winning percentage of two fifty or less, which
is what the Jets have to seven and one against
the spread in his career. This is not a team
(06:49):
that underperforms against bad teams. This is when they actually
do their best. So I'm with you, and like, all
I would say is if you like the Dolphins, you
might want a way to beat because as the line
might continue to move, the Jets get big money every
single Sunday. It is astonishing. I don't understand it.
Speaker 2 (07:10):
Let me throw you another favorite Kansas City at home
minus four against the Chargers so there are certain teams
that match up with Kansas City teams that can beat
them down the field. Denver, for instance, Mims Courtland Sutton
can force them to be more honest. Okay, the Chargers
lack playmakers and now the ones they have are Hurt
Lad mcconkey's hurt JK. Dopp. There is no pop and
(07:35):
that allows Spags to be even more aggressive when you
play a Buffalo. I think Denver's one of these teams
that I don't think we get how good they are.
They can really punish you down the field. The Chargers can't.
This is a bad spot for a dinged up Chargers team.
Kansas City minus four is my second third favorite pick
of the weekend.
Speaker 1 (07:54):
Sharper Square totally sharp and it's rare that the wise
guys would come in on Kansas City as a plus
a field go favorite in the division against a team
like the Chargers, which historically you get a team like
the Chargers. They're physical at the line of scrimmage, they
have a really good coach, the quarterback doesn't make mistakes.
(08:16):
That's what you want to bet on if you're a professional.
Better against a very public team like the Kansas City
Chiefs when Patrick Mahomes in his career as a favorite
of three or more is historically under five hundred against
the spread about forty five forty six percent. But what's
happening here is exactly what you said. Ever since JK.
Dobbins went out against the Ravens at the end of
(08:37):
that first half, the Chargers have not been able to
move the ball. Justin Herbert had been using play action
considerably more since he came back from the by and
his high ankle spray had improved. That's because JK. Dobbins
was in the backfield. He was able to pull linebackers up.
He was able to get more throwing windows, specifically to
(08:58):
Lad McConkie to Will Disley. Right JK Dobbins goes out,
they lose all downfield passing ability against the Ravens, and
then last week they only had fifty six yard rushing
yards rushing against the Falcons in a game that they
easily could have lost if Kirk Cousins wasn't doing his
own Southern version of Aaron Rodgers. So it's a real
(09:19):
tricky spot for them. JK. Dobbins still out. Lad McConkie
limited in practice this week with continuing shoulder injury and
now a new injury to his knee. I agree with you.
The wise guys agree with you. The Chiefs. Meanwhile, they
may start DJ Humphries, which would be an incredible improvement
at left tackle. They had three guys on the injury
(09:41):
report coming out of Wednesday. All of them were full
participants in practice. They had a little bit of a
mini buy. I think they'll recognize that they've been plateauing
a little bit and get an opportunity to get healthy.
The wise guys agree with you very sharp.
Speaker 2 (09:58):
So I'm gonna give you one more favorite, and they'll
go into some underdogs. So the Raiders played ten rookies.
They're beat up and they're just playing kids, and they
play hard, but disappointing loss after disappointing loss. Tampa meanwhile
played poorly and won. I love teams that play poorly
(10:18):
and win the following week. Sean Payton Ellis told me,
it's always the best week of practice. You can dog
cuss them all week, but they're happy because they won.
Tampa's good team. Jason Light's always been able to stack
this roster. Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold. We have to
be honest. Now they can play when you give them
the right coach. It can be a Liam Cohen, it
can be a Kevin O'Connell. Guys can sling it. They're good.
(10:41):
Tampa is playing. They have to beat Atlanta outright, because
Atlanta beat them twice. So these are playoff games for Tampa.
The Raiders are playing kids. They're sitting there, Antonio Pearson,
Tom Telesco, They're looking at film. They're trying to judge.
They're already on the next year. I know a six
and a half, but I like the Bucks sharper square, So.
Speaker 1 (11:04):
It's square but square. Because of the number, it moved
from seven to six and a half, I think the
wise guys continue to want to play the Raiders when
it's a big number. They feel like the Bucks will
continue to let teams that aren't as good stay in it. Baker,
(11:27):
as much as he's balling out and I think has
earned a lot of respect from fans, from media, from
his teammates, he's still prone to make mistakes. We saw
it against the Panthers, two critical interceptions. So this is
really about the number. It's not about anything on the field.
They're just looking at it and saying seven fields like
(11:49):
inflation for the Bucks.
Speaker 2 (11:55):
I'd like to say I like this underdog. I really don't,
but it's screaming at me. So I think the Steelers
are going to beat the Browns, but I don't think
Jamis Winston is going to have another two pick six game.
And frankly, in a division rivalry, Cleveland matches up with Pittsburgh. Hell,
(12:19):
they matched up and had Denver I thought beat. I
think Cleveland's got a good roster and a really good coach.
Six and a half seems to me the number should
be three and a half, four and a half. I'm
going to take Cleveland plus six and a half. Sharper square,
totally sharp. This shouldn't even be a question. Everything that
you're sort of half in on is one hundred percent right.
Speaker 1 (12:44):
Number one. This is a division game in the AFC North.
These games always tend to be closer than what this
spread should be and favor the underdog. Also Mike Tomlin.
Mike Tomlin as an underdog is brilliant. It is a
raw rab Mike Tomlin spot when he is on the
(13:05):
road as an underdog, when he is at home as
an underdog, he is the most profitable coach as an
underdog this generation the past twenty years, often winning times
straight up. Forget about just covering the spread. As great
as he is as an underdog is as ineffective he
is as a favorite. Now he's a six and a
(13:26):
half point favorite. We're talking about forty five percent against
the spread in similar scenarios throughout his career. And look,
Jamis is one of those guys. Last week I loved
the Broncos because Jamis was so good the week before.
I tend to want to fade Jamis after he's been great.
(13:48):
And while it took two pick sixes and an interception
in the end zone to get there, what we expected
to happen with Jamis is exactly what happened when Jamis
is off of a loss, that is when he is
great against the spread. And I do think that there
has to be some kind of aggression on Russell Wilson's
ability to throw these moonballs and consistently have them caught
(14:11):
in crazy, crazy circumstances. So the wise guys are with
you take the Browns plus six and a half.
Speaker 2 (14:18):
So a game, there's a game every week. I say, hey,
I just want to ask you about and I look
at the Falcons plus six Minnesota, Kirk Cousins was he
looked like if Justin Verlander threw an eighty one mom
(14:39):
hour fastball. What am I watching? Is it an injury
in the last two weeks. Something's off. So older players
get hurt more. They play with pride and play through injuries.
Aaron Rodgers' stories, You've heard about Kirk Cousins. This is
just screaming take the Vikings. But again, Atlanta is playing
(15:01):
to win the division. Kirk Cousins can't play like that. Again,
the protection will be good. Kirk can handle Brian Flores coverages.
He's seen everything. Tell me where I'm supposed to go
with that number, Minnesota.
Speaker 1 (15:17):
This number has been moving up. The only concern you
should have is that you're not getting the best of
the number. Because it opened at five, it went to
five and a half streaming towards six. I disagree that
Kirk Cousins can handle what Brian Flores is going to
throw at him. Brian Flora's defense is exactly what troubles
(15:39):
Kirk Cousins against pressure. He has the most turnover worthy
throws in the NFL this year. And don't forget this
Vikings defense is incredible against the run. They're incredible against
the run outside the tackles, They're incredible against the run
inside the tackles. They are really efficient in stopping the run.
(16:01):
The strength of the Falcons right now, it's Bjon Robinson right.
Nobody can figure out what to do with Kyle Pitts.
The next coach, coordinator, quarterback who can figure out what
to do with Kyle Pitts could end up going to
the Hall of Fame because all we ever hear about
is Kyle Pitts is the weapon who can unlock the
Atlanta Falcons offense and nobody has been able to figure
out how to do it. And Kirk Cousins since that
(16:24):
streaky start seventeen touchdowns, seven interceptions to start the year,
the past three games since they started six and three,
zero touchdown passes, six interceptions, seven sacks, And let's not
forget he had nearly eight hundred yards and eight touchdowns
in two of those first nine games against the tenth
(16:47):
Bay Buccaneers. So let's not sort of, let's not confuse
ourselves into believing that Kirk Cousins is just having a
little bit of a bad rough patch right now, he's
just I'm not mobile, and he's not playing well, and
he's had two good games that have made the numbers
look really good. So the wise guys like Minnesota here.
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Speaker 2 (18:40):
All right, a little shift up. I'm I want to
talk one college game. So these are my instincts. This
is my favorite college bat of the weekend. Georgia plays Texas.
I like the over. Here's why Georgia played an eight
overtime game. Okay, that doesn't affect the offense. Carson Beck's
had three straight games, eleven touchdowns, no picks. He's fine.
(19:00):
It decimates a defense. You play an extra twenty eight snaps.
Georgia looked tired last week against Georgia Tech. They're going
to be banged up. Also, Texas got humiliated up front
offensively in Austin. They have something to prove. They also
played their worst offensive game of the year last week
against Texas A and M, so Texas is going to
(19:23):
play inspired offensive football. Georgia's defense is done, but their
offense is still. You know, these are the two best
quarterbacks in the SEC, Carson Beck and Quinn Ewers in
terms of like efficiency. I love the over in this game.
I think it actually ends up being a kind of
just a wild shootout with a Georgia defense that just
(19:47):
is out of gas. The over underlying DraftKings. I don't
know what it is exactly right now. If you find it,
you can tell me. But that's my favorite college bet
in weeks.
Speaker 1 (20:00):
It's interesting. Chris Long, who has a brilliant podcast, the
green Light Podcast. He makes great points about the challenge
of overtime on an NFL player, and that literally every
hour of recovery matters when you are playing in the NFL.
(20:21):
And if you got the four pm game and it
ends at eight because your game went into overtime, that's
a real impact on your body and your ability to recover.
I know the game for Georgia and Georgia Tech was
on Friday night, but I'm not discounting the impact of
an overtime game like that because I do think that
(20:42):
it's really really hard on the body, and I do
think these offenses are both primed to blow up, So
don't I don't hate your pick and a half.
Speaker 2 (20:52):
Forty nine and a half. That is not a big number, not.
Speaker 1 (20:56):
A big number at all. Like I was looking it
up as you were looking up as well when you
were talking about it, I didn't have it at the
top of my head. In my head it was fifty one.
So just thinking about these teams, forty nine and a
half feels a little bit low. Now I'm looking in
the app and I'm seeing do I have any total
(21:16):
picks right now? I don't. Uh no, pit wait, let's
see one thing here. You know what I got. I
got one under And that said so far from sort
of the experts.
Speaker 2 (21:33):
Okay, let's be different.
Speaker 1 (21:35):
Let's be different and take the over.
Speaker 2 (21:37):
The you know what's funny about college football. So I
had Notre Dame to cover. I had Oregon to cover.
I had Ohio State to cover. You know, it's funny,
and I've lived off this my entire career. New information,
new opinion. I don't think it's flip flopping. I always say,
(21:58):
if you were getting on a flow and the pilot said, listen,
we've had a weather change. But instead of a new
flight plan, I'm gonna fly right into the lightning storm,
you'd be like, that's not smart, right, Like I don't
understand like bloggers or media critics who are like you
changed your mind every day of my life. I changed
(22:20):
my mind because I'm curious and I seek new information.
I sell stocks regularly new information. So it's funny about
Ohio State. I said, I always had Ryan Day as
a coach that could win a national championship, but that
coaching was so weird that I have eliminated him from
(22:42):
that category, where now I have like Lane Kiffin, Sark,
Kaylin de boor Dan Lanning. You know guys I think
can win a national championship, they just haven't yet. They're
good coaches. I had Ryan Dan that Now I think
to myself, okay, that's that's hyperbolic, that's overreacting. But there
are there are things you want. I always used the
example when Randy Moss played for the Patriots and it
(23:04):
had been a couple of years. One Monday night game
against Miami, they literally didn't target him, and I said, oh,
this is his last game as Patriot. And I went
on the next day and said, people are like, you're overreacting.
I'm like, you do not target Randy Moss once in
a football game with Tom Brady. Somebody's pissed off, somebody
got he was probably close to a DNP. Something's going well.
(23:28):
Sure enough he moved. Watching that game was so seismic
to me. I'm like, I I thought Ryan Day was
coaching to prove a point. That was as bad a
coaching as I've ever seen in a big spot.
Speaker 1 (23:43):
You nailed it. You and I had this conversation before
Thanksgiving about Ryan Day and about the pressure he is
under and how there's not a single coach in the
playoff who, unless they win the National Championship, wouldn't be
back next year. Only Ryan Day has that kind of pressure.
(24:05):
He has not been coaching well in big games his
entire career, four straight losses to Michigan, and this game
exactly what you just said. I think is true. It
felt like he was coaching. And again, he doesn't call
the plays, it's Chip Kelly calling the plays. But the
way the team performed, it felt like he was trying
(24:27):
to prove they're super strong, they're super physical, They're going
to punch him in the mouth, and all the aggression
he's been feeling for years is coming out in that game.
And then at the end, his team is getting into
a fistfight with the Michigan team and he's standing there
and just asking what's happening, what's going on? Like it's
(24:49):
just I can't imagine he's back in Ohio State next year.
And I know I don't like talking about people's jobs.
Nobody does. But he has not performed at the level
of expectation.
Speaker 2 (25:05):
If he'd great, if he lost to Josh Heipel in
the first round, I think he'd be in big trouble.
Speaker 1 (25:12):
I think if he doesn't win a national title, he's
in big trouble. Look, Colin, they spend twenty million dollars,
They got Jim Knowles, who's a legendary defensive coordinator. They
got Chip Kelly, who revolutionized the game. They can go
into the portal get anybody they want. They can recruit
anybody they want. They've lost two games this year, the
(25:36):
first game of the year that they had six months
to prepare for, and they got railroaded, and they got
beat up in a fistfight with a team that is
incredibly overmatched in terms of talent, and they lost at
home to the to a team that they had been
(25:57):
thinking about beating for three hundred and sixty four days.
You can't keep that guy if he doesn't win a
national title.
Speaker 2 (26:05):
Yeah, I would, but I think him in the minority.
I think if he lost to Tennessee, I'd struggle. But
if I think if he won a couple of games
and let's say lost to Texas in you know, the
final four in overtime, I'd be like, okay, Texas. I mean,
the only two teams I've seen. I think we don't
have a great team in college football. But I thought
(26:26):
before last weekend Texas and Oregon were really good, and
so is Ohio State. Those are really good teams. Very
rarely in college football do you get a great team.
The Joe Burrow team with you know, justin Jefferson jamar
Ch that's a great team. The Reggie Bush teams a
couple of those were insane. Miami had a team at
the end of the Butch Davis run. They had like
twenty two NFL guys, the Lawrence Phillips Tommy Fraser Nebraska team,
(26:50):
the seventy two USC Trojans. You get these teams that
are like, oh god, you know this. This is a
year full of good to very good teams. But people
forget this too. I mean, Ohio State struggled at Penn State.
That was a clunky win. It was an inartistic clunky
(27:11):
win there and I and maybe a Penn State will
prove me wrong, but I think Oregon beats on this weekend,
so I I listen. Here's all you need to know
about coaching is a team overperforming or underperforming. Ohio State
has underperformed as much as any big name program this year.
Speaker 1 (27:29):
Yeah, everything you just said says to me you think
he shouldn't come back unless he went to the national title.
I feel like you're.
Speaker 2 (27:41):
Well, I don't being soft all of a sudden, there's
no great coach in the offing. There is. I mean,
Urban Meyer would be my choice. I don't think he'll
come back. I the first thing I asked, I don't
care if it's the volume, I don't care if it's
as an athletic director. The first thing is, well, what's
what's the hiring market? Like? I don't like making moves
(28:03):
like I even even you know, I've dinked around with
real estate and you know, always calls me like I'm
the circler. I'll circle something for you. I'll drive by
the property in the morning, I'll drive by at night,
I'll drive by on the weekends. I'll circle. I'm somebody
that's I wouldn't say cautious, but I tend to circle
stuff before I do it. So the first thing I
would do if I'm the athletic director is all right,
(28:24):
what's the market like? And some years you get Brian
Kelly's available and you're like, you know, there are years
like last year in the NFL, there was one good
NFL opening, the Chargers because of Justin Herbert. They had
a left tackle, they had a quarterback, they had a
Bosa rushing off the edge, they had a great safety.
You're like, that's a pretty good job. And it's in LA, right,
(28:44):
you can get free agents. But like this year in
the NFL, Chicago's the best job mccaskey's are the poorest
owners own it since the twenties. I'm not sure if
Kevin Warren at president is the right guy. We don't
know much about Ryan Poles, like that's the best job.
So there's not a lot of great job openings and
(29:06):
there's not a lot of great candidates, and so to me,
it's like I would keep Ryan Day and I would
just keep my eye out if he you know, I
would say this, I'm on warning now we're going into
a season I have been. I may have gone into
this season thinking he's here forever. I go into next
(29:26):
says and thinking stubs his toe, I'm gonna make calls.
That's how I would do it.
Speaker 1 (29:32):
Ohio State is one of the two three best coaching jobs.
Speaker 2 (29:38):
Oh got in college football, right, yeah, Oh, absolutely right,
top two.
Speaker 1 (29:42):
Yeah. You think if they got rid of Ryan Day,
they couldn't pry one of the best coaches from another
program away. Well, look at what Like, I'm not saying
that Washington was a top notch program, but Washington had
been built quickly by Kaylin de Boor and they were
International title game last year. Nick Saban unexpectedly retires. They
(30:08):
got him immediately and so I don't believe that Ohio
State would not fire Ryan Day just because they don't
think they can find a candidate. They can get anybody
they want. They might be able to go into the
NFL and get a great candidate who is a top
notch coach who's dreamed of coach. They could get Mike Rabel, right.
(30:28):
I'm just saying, like, not knowing the current candidate pool
wouldn't stop me from doing it because Ohio State is
such a good job. The candidate pool is everybody.
Speaker 2 (30:40):
Yeah, Gruden may be toxic to NFL people, but he's
not toxic in college football. I would call John Gruden
tomorrow for the Ohio ESK job.
Speaker 1 (30:47):
And Gruden would crush that.
Speaker 2 (30:50):
Yes, that would be my choice because I you know,
there's some I think he still has a lawsuit or
something of the NFL and there's some toxicity there, but
college doesn't care. What do they care?
Speaker 1 (31:00):
And he I mean, are you kidding me? A football
guy like Gruden.
Speaker 2 (31:03):
And he's also a big personality.
Speaker 1 (31:05):
He'd be a great recruiter, great recruiter, great with boosters.
Whatever ni OWL money they have would get bigger like.
Speaker 2 (31:13):
And he's also he you know, he likes personnel, like
Andy Reid has no interest, but there are you know,
McVeigh has interest. Sean Payton likes personnel, Jimmy Johnson did
Gruden likes personnel. He enjoys the process of recruiting and
judging players. So yeah, I mean that that would be
my first choice. Urban's my first choice. But he's been
there and he's got a job.
Speaker 1 (31:33):
I feel like you're coming around. I feel like you're
coming around to the idea that there's there could be
a candidate out there if Ohio State decided they wanted
to go find a new coach.
Speaker 2 (31:43):
Chad Millman, Sharper Square, good talk to anybody.
Speaker 1 (31:47):
Good to see your brother.
Speaker 2 (31:50):
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