October 20, 2018 • 20 mins
After Colin's first losing week of the year he tries to rebound with his Blazing 5 picks and RJ Bell of Pregame.com and Fox Sports Radio tells him which ones the wise guys in Vegas agree and disagree with. Plus, Colin releases a bonus pick not in his Blazing 5.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Hi, everybody, Welcome to our Saturday morning podcast r J
Bell In a second Blazing five and a second two.
But first, there are things in sports that are smart
moves and things that are not so smart moves, Like
calling a time out to set up a final touchdown brilliant,
Calling a timeout with none left not so brilliant. Same
when you're hiring people job sites that overwhelm you with
(00:24):
tons of the wrong resumes, that's not smart. But posting
a job on zip recruiter and letting them find the
right candidates for you, I think that's smart. They have
powerful matching technology. They scan thousands of resumes and then
they identify the people with the right education, skills and experience,
and they inactively invite them to apply. It's rated number
(00:48):
one by employers in the country based on a trust
pilot ratings of hiring sites. So right now, my listeners,
you can try it for free. Zip recruiter dot com
slash blaze blaze like Blazing five. Zip recruiter dot com
slash Blaze. Zip recruiter is the smartest way to hire.
(01:13):
With that, here's my Blazing five. Let's blaze it up,
Fired Up. It's Collins Blazing five, Panther said, Eagles, listen,
this is all about the number. I don't bet teams,
I bet numbers. The numbers too rich here. Carolina is
getting four and a half. They have a real running
game now with Cam Newton, I've always had a real
running game. Yards per game, yards per rush. Vegas love
(01:36):
that number. Their top six with both. But Cam's also
got four straight games with two plus touchdown passes. Do
you know that's the first time it's ever happened, the
longest streak of his career. Norv Turner and Cam are
working together, plus a dynamic running game, and the Eagles
defense on the back end is suspect. I'm not sure
who wins, but the numbers too big. How about this
(01:59):
Carolina upset twenty seven twenty six bills it Colts. This
could be the bet of the year. Indianapolis is one
in five and you think they're terrible, they're minus seven
and a half. I think it's going to be a route.
The Colts have the best pass rush in the NFL
that nobody talks about. They have nineteen sacks, that's third
in the NFL. You wouldn't have guessed that, and they're
(02:21):
starting Derek Anderson at quarterback. He's thirty five. They just
signed him eight days ago, and he's not great, and
he's been in camp eight days. And Andrew Luck's tearing
it up. And they're at home, and the Colts have
been in all the games they've lost. Right now, the
Bills offense this season, you name a stat their last points, yards,
third down, it doesn't matter if they're last in everything.
And I like Sean McDermott and their staff, but it's
(02:43):
a tweener year. They drafted a rookie. He's over his head,
he got hurt. Derek Anderson thirty five years old, just
came out, and Andrew Luck is gonna rifle through this thing.
The Colts can score, and their pass rush against an
immobile Derek Anderson thirty three ten Colts go on to win.
Saints and Ravens like it. I love it. I'll take
(03:06):
the Ravens at home minus two and a half. Raven's
been on the road, awhile they come home. Baltimore is
always good at home. By the way, number one defense
in the league is not the Bears, it's the Ravens.
But you say, column the number one offense is the Saints.
Yet is, but it doesn't travel as well on the road.
And Baltimore's offense is sneaky good first of all, on
defense their number one and everything, points, yards, sacks, yards
(03:28):
allowed their number one and everything. And it's even better
at home. And the Ravens have a sneaky good offense
third down this year, their third down offense is almost
fifty percent. They can run the ball, they can throw
it deep. Those two tight end rookies can play. I
like Baltimore to win this game. Don't be a sucker
on this. Don't fall in love with Drew Brees. They
don't travel as well. Baltimore's coming home. Ravens win it.
(03:49):
Twenty eight twenty four. Cowboys and Redskins Dallas is the
tale of two teams. Cowboys are at home, they demolish
the Jags. Cowboys on the road they get demolished. Washington
only has to give up one and a half points.
I really like Washington here. I mean, look at the numbers.
Cowboys at home or three and ozer cowboys away are
(04:10):
oo and three Cowboys at home average twenty nine. Cowboys
on the road average twelve turnover differential grade at home
a mess on the road by the way the Redskins
don't give the ball up, second fewest giveaways in the NFL.
They're good at home. They have a veteran quarterback. I
told you the next six weeks Washington. Look at their schedule.
(04:31):
They'll be favored in all their home games. They're favored here.
Everybody's paying attention to Dallas. Washington wins this by over
a touchdown, twenty eight twenty Giants at folks. I love this. Okay,
everybody's Giants can't play. They're terrible. Giants are terrible. Yeah,
Giants getting five and a half points against an Atlanta
(04:52):
team that's pathetic defensively. By the way, the Giants only
lost to Carolina because the guy booted a sixty something
yard field go and they had the Houston Texans beat.
The Giants are all over the map, but they've proven
they can go up against good teams. Houston's got a
fearsome pass rush and Carolina can play, and they gave
both of them trouble. By the way, the Falcons are
(05:13):
lasted everything defensively, it's not the coach. They lost three
starters and they're all banged up again this weekend. And
by the way, running backs who can catch. They've given
up Atlanta the most running back perceptions in the NFL,
and Sequon Barkley leads all running backs with forty catches
this year. New York, New York. So nice, we say
it twice. The Giants take the five and a half.
(05:35):
They beat them out right, twenty four to twenty three.
All right, And with that we bring in RJ Bell,
the founder of pregame dot com. They are the exclusive
odds provider to the Associated Press, and RJ now is
hosting on a week day basis three to four Pacific,
six to seven Eastern Fox Sports Radio, the first ever
(05:56):
national network radio show covering sports betting. Are you ready
to roll? Absolutely? All right? Here we go Panthers plus
four and a half at the Eagles. First of all,
I feel like Carolina feels desperate, and I thought Cam
Newton played mostly well last week. They're getting healthier, and
this is a spot where I think Philly may win.
(06:18):
But four and a half seems very rich to me.
And I'm gonna take the Panthers plus four and a half.
What do the wise guys think? That is a reasonable handicap?
But you've got a disagreement on this game. And I
think it's all about Philadelphia's health. We're looking at the
season and we're considering the games without wins, and the
(06:41):
reality is, though the Super Bowl Nick Foles played was amazing,
Let's give him credit. Yeah, he's not Carson Wentz, and
Carson Wentz wasn't Carson Wentz early in this comeback, meaning
he wasn't as mobile, he wasn't as confident. But each
game you can see Wentz getting better and better. Also,
(07:02):
when you have a home favorite that gets above a
field goal like Philadelphia, oftentimes the value of the underdog
is on the favorite not being totally focused. But the
Eagles need this game too. I mean, you look at
their record. They can't take a loss here either. One
last thing, I think Carolina has an under appreciated home
(07:25):
away split, meaning they are so much better the Panthers
at home. They are yielding twenty seven points per game
on the road, so their defense is given up twenty
seven a game on the road only twenty at home.
To me, that makes a difference. And lastly, the health
of the rest of the Eagles has improved. Eagles are
(07:46):
picked disagree with the Panthers like I don't do this
very often, but a one in five Colts teams minus
seven and a half at home against Buffalo, and I'm
I'm gonna lay it here. I'm gonna take the Colts
minus seven and a half. I still believe in their
division and they think they can be a playoff team.
They've been beat up physically, but if you go back
(08:07):
to that Jets game last week, very much in that game.
So I don't think they're a good team. But I
think with Derek Anderson starting, Buffalo is going to be
an utter disaster. In fact, I think Indie wins going away.
I'm gonna I'm gonna lay the points here. It's a lot,
but I actually think it could be an ugly blowout
(08:27):
win for the Colts at home. What are the wise
guys think? Well, you know what else doesn't happen. This
is the first time ever a one in five team
in the NFL is favored by more than a touchdown
versus a team with two or more wins. So it's
the team with only one win favored by over a
TD that said, surprising agreement on this game. Here's the concept, Colin,
(08:54):
what do you think the line would be if you
were quarterbacking the Bills, right, he would it be thirty,
would it be forty? You know, that's kind of the point.
Derek Anderson, though in his day was a fine quarterback.
He had four passes. Last year he attempted. I mean,
so it's not even like, oh, he retired. Now he's back.
(09:17):
And plus he's been with the Bills for what a week?
Eight days? So how much of this offense could he understand?
So this is such a desperation move. It trumps everything else.
It trumps everything else. And by the way, we had
Josh Allen as the worst starter in football. Peterman was
one and a half points worse than him, and we
(09:40):
think Anderson is even worse than him. This is one
of the worst starting quarterbacks Anderson in this case we've
seen in memory. By the way, last thing we've talked
about motivation with the Eagles. The Coats are one in five.
Even though they're laying over a touchdown, you know they're
gonna be motivated. Agreement on the Colts, All right, best
(10:03):
game of the day, Saints at the Ravens. I'm gonna
take the Ravens minus two and a half. In fact,
this seems obvious to me. First of all, the Ravens
have been on the road for a while, so they
come home. They are really good at home, and I
think their offense is sneaky good in the red zone.
It's not Kansas City Fund, but I think Baltimore is
(10:24):
the best defensive team easily in the league. Little homecoming, okay,
and they're pretty damn effective in the red zone when
they get opportunities. I feel incredibly comfortable betting against Breeze here.
I'll take the Ravens minus two and a half. What
are the wise guys think? Biggest agreement? You know what?
I want to hear this because this one thought seemed
(10:45):
This was the first game I looked at and went, oh,
that's an easy one. And I'll be honest with you,
and I say this sincerely. It's a sign of you
understanding how wise guys think. All right, typical home field
in the NFL is three ray even To actually have
a sneaky good home field advantage maybe the seventh, six, seventh,
(11:05):
eighth best in the NFL. Saints are one of the
teams that rely on their home field more than any
other team, So you've got that dicotomy advantage Baltimore. Number two.
What is typical home field advantage three worth two and
a half. You might say, r J, that's only a
half a point. Consider this, If a spread is around three,
(11:26):
the favorite wins by exactly three, almost ten percent of
the time. In that case, here you win instead of
push if we were laying three. Another important thing, lastly,
I don't think people appreciate how good this Ravens defense is.
They've played six games this year, so in the second
half of those games there's been twelve quarters, right, six
(11:48):
times two. They've given up the Ravens fifteen points in
twelve quarters. I mean this is in twenty eighteen. That
is stunning. There may be weather in this game. And
last thing, Fatzick, who you know, and he's been on
your show. In this pod, we've been picking in the
super contest Gold that's five thousand dollars entry winner take
(12:12):
all six hundred and fifty k. The winner gets all right,
he is six and no on the picks that he contributes.
And by the way, Colin, we're two games out of
first to win six hundred fifty thousand. I might miss
that Friday if we win, by the way, but that said,
his best better the week. He's going for seven, and
oh is the Ravens all right cowboys at the Redskins.
(12:34):
This is real simple. Average quarterbacks can fool you by
playing good at home. But average quarterbacks the Andy Dalton's
don't play good in big games or off in road games.
And so Dak Prescott to me, he's an average quarterback.
Redskins only have to give up minus one and a half.
They already beat Carolina, they already beat Green Bay again.
(12:54):
I'll take the Redskins minus one and a half against
the Dallas team that hasn't proven to me they can
go on the road against the decent team and win.
What are the wise guys think? Let me ask you
a quick question, because I listened avidly to your show. Uh,
and I can tell you, Hey, you didn't like Dak initially,
you know, way back when, and then you had to
(13:15):
come around. We're gone. You all right? But you don't
want to see seemed gleeful, but you really like that.
It looks like it's doubling back to your initial thoughts. Yeah,
which is yes, so be. I'll be honest with you,
it's I don't always root for being right, but my
instincts were he's a better thrower. Than Tebow, but there's
a lot of Tebow here. He's got to run to
(13:36):
win in this league. No, I hear you, and and
I'm gonna give you slight agreement on this Redskins. First,
I'm gonna tell you why I agree, and then my concerns. Um.
First off, at what point do we give Dallas credit
for dominating Jacksonville. I get it, it it might be Jacksonville's
got a problem we don't see. But Cowboys are an
(13:57):
emotional team. You talk about Tomlin and the Steelers. I
think that momentum helps this team. One number two to
the line we talked about home field is three are
really saying Dallas is clearly the better team. So so
to me in that case, the idea that it's only
a one or one and a half point spread, it's
(14:18):
all about the value, so you know to me that.
And then lastly, when it comes to the pro Cowboys stuff, well,
I'm sorry to check that pro Washington stuff. Dallas just
doesn't play well on the road this year. Seventeen points
better at home this season. Here's my two concerns real quick.
That makes me yeah, I give you a slight one.
(14:39):
Cowboys have won four straight against Washington. And what does
Dallas need to do? You just made the point. Yeah
against Washington. Those four games they've had over six hundred
yards rushing. All right, So unless Washington fixes at that's
a problem. Also, by the way, let me just say this,
Dallas is front seven defensively. It's good. This is not
if this was two and a half points, I'm not
(15:00):
sure i'd let it. I think it's a low scoring game.
I just like twenty to seventeen Washington. But Dallas's defense
is good upfront. Oh hey, the third lease points allowed
in the NFL this year the Dallas Cowboys. And you're
right to total in this game forty one and a half,
which is very low for the NFL. So I'm going
to give you a slight agreement on the skins. I
(15:21):
won't be beat in this game. All right, two more picks.
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I'm wearing their slacks now it's a little too cold.
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(16:23):
getting into October, but I wore their slacks yesterday, and
I wore the pull over all the time. Peter Mallard,
All right, let's go to my final blazing five picks.
So I have three three to one agreement, So I'm
good with agreement. Um again, the giants will look terrible.
Let's not go crazy here. They didn't move the ball
against the Texans. They moved the ball against Carolina. It
(16:44):
took a sixty yard field goal to beat them. I'm
getting five and a half with the Giants as they're
getting beat up by the press at Atlanta. Atlanta is
a disaster right now. Defensively, again, maybe Atlanta wins at home,
but I think the Giants have shown when the matchup
works up front. They move the ball in the Texans.
(17:05):
They moved the ball in Carolina. I'll take the Giants
plus two points five and a half. More of the
wise guys say agreement. This is a classic pros on
the Giants, Joes on the Falcons. The Joes are looking saying, man,
home fields three, it's just barely above that. Give me
the Falcons, and a lot of the Joes don't want
(17:25):
to beat Eli. I mean some are saying worst quarterback
in the NFL. But boy, the Falcons defense, I mean
it's been banged up. It's banged up, and it's bad
and it's not getting better. Sometimes those second teamers start
to gel. You're not seeing that Freeman's out now, and
then Ridley and Snows banged up. So even on offense,
(17:46):
the playmakers are banged up. The only concern here other
than Eli. Let's be honest, the only concern is this
is the fifth home game in seven weeks for Atlanta,
and they've scored more than thirty points in all four.
They love that Dome. If this game, typically, if you
did a six point switch home to home, I would
(18:07):
much rather have the Giants laying let's say two or
one at home than getting four or five on the road.
That said, the pros really agree with you a ton
on this one. I'm a little more apprehensive agreement. So
four to one agreement, or I would bonus pick only
for R. J. Boll and only for our audience here.
(18:28):
I would take the Bears plush three against the Patriots
New England off a while. I mean, listen, we know
it's New England and they're consistent, But that was the
game of the year in the NFL. That was the
best regular season game in the NFL in about three years.
I think a little letdown the weather, it's getting a
little choppy now, and Trubisky in the last two games
with Matt Nagee kind of chopped it up. Been okay.
(18:51):
So I would take the Bears plus three in a
mild upset. What do the wise guys think? I tell
you there's disagreement on this one from me. I'm gonna
say not the wise guys, this is an RJ disagreement.
Fesik actually likes New England or likes the Bears. That
agrees with you likes the Bears. Here's what I'm feeling
very strongly here quickly is if you look at Naggie
(19:15):
with the Bears, it feels like his elite coaching is
so important to the Bears and especially Trabiski. Well, is
he gonna out coach Belichick? That's the thing. Naggie might
have a coaching adges scheming adge in so many other games,
but I don't think he does against Belichick. And consider this,
(19:37):
and one of our new guys that pregame, his name's Mackey.
He came in with this and it was like it
blew me away. Who did New England play last week?
They played Andy Reid? Well, who's Andy Reid? The mentor
of Naggie. So you're telling me that whatever game prep
that the Patriots did, now they get to like a
(19:59):
chess game. Now Naggie's gonna look at that. I think
they got something figured out, give Mackie a raise. You know, hey,
hey it's a knough, it's a knot. But it wasn't
good at feedback because Belichick is a chess player and
against anybody against Naggie, I want to go with the
chess player Patriots, RJ says, go with him. By the way,
(20:19):
RJ follow him on Twitter. I do at RJ in Vegas.
Founder of pregame dot com, the exclusive odds provider to
the Associated Press. He has a daily one hour show
three to four Pacific, six to seven Eastern Fox Sports Radio.
Good good gaming stuff. Good talking to you, Budd. Thank you,
Hi, everybody, Welcome to our Saturday morning podcast r J
Bell In a second Blazing five and a second two.
But first, there are things in sports that are smart
moves and things that are not so smart moves, Like
calling a time out to set up a final touchdown brilliant,
Calling a timeout with none left not so brilliant. Same
when you're hiring people job sites that overwhelm you with
(00:24):
tons of the wrong resumes, that's not smart. But posting
a job on zip recruiter and letting them find the
right candidates for you, I think that's smart. They have
powerful matching technology. They scan thousands of resumes and then
they identify the people with the right education, skills and experience,
and they inactively invite them to apply. It's rated number
(00:48):
one by employers in the country based on a trust
pilot ratings of hiring sites. So right now, my listeners,
you can try it for free. Zip recruiter dot com
slash blaze blaze like Blazing five. Zip recruiter dot com
slash Blaze. Zip recruiter is the smartest way to hire.
(01:13):
With that, here's my Blazing five. Let's blaze it up,
Fired Up. It's Collins Blazing five, Panther said, Eagles, listen,
this is all about the number. I don't bet teams,
I bet numbers. The numbers too rich here. Carolina is
getting four and a half. They have a real running
game now with Cam Newton, I've always had a real
running game. Yards per game, yards per rush. Vegas love
(01:36):
that number. Their top six with both. But Cam's also
got four straight games with two plus touchdown passes. Do
you know that's the first time it's ever happened, the
longest streak of his career. Norv Turner and Cam are
working together, plus a dynamic running game, and the Eagles
defense on the back end is suspect. I'm not sure
who wins, but the numbers too big. How about this
(01:59):
Carolina upset twenty seven twenty six bills it Colts. This
could be the bet of the year. Indianapolis is one
in five and you think they're terrible, they're minus seven
and a half. I think it's going to be a route.
The Colts have the best pass rush in the NFL
that nobody talks about. They have nineteen sacks, that's third
in the NFL. You wouldn't have guessed that, and they're
(02:21):
starting Derek Anderson at quarterback. He's thirty five. They just
signed him eight days ago, and he's not great, and
he's been in camp eight days. And Andrew Luck's tearing
it up. And they're at home, and the Colts have
been in all the games they've lost. Right now, the
Bills offense this season, you name a stat their last points, yards,
third down, it doesn't matter if they're last in everything.
And I like Sean McDermott and their staff, but it's
(02:43):
a tweener year. They drafted a rookie. He's over his head,
he got hurt. Derek Anderson thirty five years old, just
came out, and Andrew Luck is gonna rifle through this thing.
The Colts can score, and their pass rush against an
immobile Derek Anderson thirty three ten Colts go on to win.
Saints and Ravens like it. I love it. I'll take
(03:06):
the Ravens at home minus two and a half. Raven's
been on the road, awhile they come home. Baltimore is
always good at home. By the way, number one defense
in the league is not the Bears, it's the Ravens.
But you say, column the number one offense is the Saints.
Yet is, but it doesn't travel as well on the road.
And Baltimore's offense is sneaky good first of all, on
defense their number one and everything, points, yards, sacks, yards
(03:28):
allowed their number one and everything. And it's even better
at home. And the Ravens have a sneaky good offense
third down this year, their third down offense is almost
fifty percent. They can run the ball, they can throw
it deep. Those two tight end rookies can play. I
like Baltimore to win this game. Don't be a sucker
on this. Don't fall in love with Drew Brees. They
don't travel as well. Baltimore's coming home. Ravens win it.
(03:49):
Twenty eight twenty four. Cowboys and Redskins Dallas is the
tale of two teams. Cowboys are at home, they demolish
the Jags. Cowboys on the road they get demolished. Washington
only has to give up one and a half points.
I really like Washington here. I mean, look at the numbers.
Cowboys at home or three and ozer cowboys away are
(04:10):
oo and three Cowboys at home average twenty nine. Cowboys
on the road average twelve turnover differential grade at home
a mess on the road by the way the Redskins
don't give the ball up, second fewest giveaways in the NFL.
They're good at home. They have a veteran quarterback. I
told you the next six weeks Washington. Look at their schedule.
(04:31):
They'll be favored in all their home games. They're favored here.
Everybody's paying attention to Dallas. Washington wins this by over
a touchdown, twenty eight twenty Giants at folks. I love this. Okay,
everybody's Giants can't play. They're terrible. Giants are terrible. Yeah,
Giants getting five and a half points against an Atlanta
(04:52):
team that's pathetic defensively. By the way, the Giants only
lost to Carolina because the guy booted a sixty something
yard field go and they had the Houston Texans beat.
The Giants are all over the map, but they've proven
they can go up against good teams. Houston's got a
fearsome pass rush and Carolina can play, and they gave
both of them trouble. By the way, the Falcons are
(05:13):
lasted everything defensively, it's not the coach. They lost three
starters and they're all banged up again this weekend. And
by the way, running backs who can catch. They've given
up Atlanta the most running back perceptions in the NFL,
and Sequon Barkley leads all running backs with forty catches
this year. New York, New York. So nice, we say
it twice. The Giants take the five and a half.
(05:35):
They beat them out right, twenty four to twenty three.
All right, And with that we bring in RJ Bell,
the founder of pregame dot com. They are the exclusive
odds provider to the Associated Press, and RJ now is
hosting on a week day basis three to four Pacific,
six to seven Eastern Fox Sports Radio, the first ever
(05:56):
national network radio show covering sports betting. Are you ready
to roll? Absolutely? All right? Here we go Panthers plus
four and a half at the Eagles. First of all,
I feel like Carolina feels desperate, and I thought Cam
Newton played mostly well last week. They're getting healthier, and
this is a spot where I think Philly may win.
(06:18):
But four and a half seems very rich to me.
And I'm gonna take the Panthers plus four and a half.
What do the wise guys think? That is a reasonable handicap?
But you've got a disagreement on this game. And I
think it's all about Philadelphia's health. We're looking at the
season and we're considering the games without wins, and the
(06:41):
reality is, though the Super Bowl Nick Foles played was amazing,
Let's give him credit. Yeah, he's not Carson Wentz, and
Carson Wentz wasn't Carson Wentz early in this comeback, meaning
he wasn't as mobile, he wasn't as confident. But each
game you can see Wentz getting better and better. Also,
(07:02):
when you have a home favorite that gets above a
field goal like Philadelphia, oftentimes the value of the underdog
is on the favorite not being totally focused. But the
Eagles need this game too. I mean, you look at
their record. They can't take a loss here either. One
last thing, I think Carolina has an under appreciated home
(07:25):
away split, meaning they are so much better the Panthers
at home. They are yielding twenty seven points per game
on the road, so their defense is given up twenty
seven a game on the road only twenty at home.
To me, that makes a difference. And lastly, the health
of the rest of the Eagles has improved. Eagles are
(07:46):
picked disagree with the Panthers like I don't do this
very often, but a one in five Colts teams minus
seven and a half at home against Buffalo, and I'm
I'm gonna lay it here. I'm gonna take the Colts
minus seven and a half. I still believe in their
division and they think they can be a playoff team.
They've been beat up physically, but if you go back
(08:07):
to that Jets game last week, very much in that game.
So I don't think they're a good team. But I
think with Derek Anderson starting, Buffalo is going to be
an utter disaster. In fact, I think Indie wins going away.
I'm gonna I'm gonna lay the points here. It's a lot,
but I actually think it could be an ugly blowout
(08:27):
win for the Colts at home. What are the wise
guys think? Well, you know what else doesn't happen. This
is the first time ever a one in five team
in the NFL is favored by more than a touchdown
versus a team with two or more wins. So it's
the team with only one win favored by over a
TD that said, surprising agreement on this game. Here's the concept, Colin,
(08:54):
what do you think the line would be if you
were quarterbacking the Bills, right, he would it be thirty,
would it be forty? You know, that's kind of the point.
Derek Anderson, though in his day was a fine quarterback.
He had four passes. Last year he attempted. I mean,
so it's not even like, oh, he retired. Now he's back.
(09:17):
And plus he's been with the Bills for what a week?
Eight days? So how much of this offense could he understand?
So this is such a desperation move. It trumps everything else.
It trumps everything else. And by the way, we had
Josh Allen as the worst starter in football. Peterman was
one and a half points worse than him, and we
(09:40):
think Anderson is even worse than him. This is one
of the worst starting quarterbacks Anderson in this case we've
seen in memory. By the way, last thing we've talked
about motivation with the Eagles. The Coats are one in five.
Even though they're laying over a touchdown, you know they're
gonna be motivated. Agreement on the Colts, All right, best
(10:03):
game of the day, Saints at the Ravens. I'm gonna
take the Ravens minus two and a half. In fact,
this seems obvious to me. First of all, the Ravens
have been on the road for a while, so they
come home. They are really good at home, and I
think their offense is sneaky good in the red zone.
It's not Kansas City Fund, but I think Baltimore is
(10:24):
the best defensive team easily in the league. Little homecoming, okay,
and they're pretty damn effective in the red zone when
they get opportunities. I feel incredibly comfortable betting against Breeze here.
I'll take the Ravens minus two and a half. What
are the wise guys think? Biggest agreement? You know what?
I want to hear this because this one thought seemed
(10:45):
This was the first game I looked at and went, oh,
that's an easy one. And I'll be honest with you,
and I say this sincerely. It's a sign of you
understanding how wise guys think. All right, typical home field
in the NFL is three ray even To actually have
a sneaky good home field advantage maybe the seventh, six, seventh,
(11:05):
eighth best in the NFL. Saints are one of the
teams that rely on their home field more than any
other team, So you've got that dicotomy advantage Baltimore. Number two.
What is typical home field advantage three worth two and
a half. You might say, r J, that's only a
half a point. Consider this, If a spread is around three,
(11:26):
the favorite wins by exactly three, almost ten percent of
the time. In that case, here you win instead of
push if we were laying three. Another important thing, lastly,
I don't think people appreciate how good this Ravens defense is.
They've played six games this year, so in the second
half of those games there's been twelve quarters, right, six
(11:48):
times two. They've given up the Ravens fifteen points in
twelve quarters. I mean this is in twenty eighteen. That
is stunning. There may be weather in this game. And
last thing, Fatzick, who you know, and he's been on
your show. In this pod, we've been picking in the
super contest Gold that's five thousand dollars entry winner take
(12:12):
all six hundred and fifty k. The winner gets all right,
he is six and no on the picks that he contributes.
And by the way, Colin, we're two games out of
first to win six hundred fifty thousand. I might miss
that Friday if we win, by the way, but that said,
his best better the week. He's going for seven, and
oh is the Ravens all right cowboys at the Redskins.
(12:34):
This is real simple. Average quarterbacks can fool you by
playing good at home. But average quarterbacks the Andy Dalton's
don't play good in big games or off in road games.
And so Dak Prescott to me, he's an average quarterback.
Redskins only have to give up minus one and a half.
They already beat Carolina, they already beat Green Bay again.
(12:54):
I'll take the Redskins minus one and a half against
the Dallas team that hasn't proven to me they can
go on the road against the decent team and win.
What are the wise guys think? Let me ask you
a quick question, because I listened avidly to your show. Uh,
and I can tell you, Hey, you didn't like Dak initially,
you know, way back when, and then you had to
(13:15):
come around. We're gone. You all right? But you don't
want to see seemed gleeful, but you really like that.
It looks like it's doubling back to your initial thoughts. Yeah,
which is yes, so be. I'll be honest with you,
it's I don't always root for being right, but my
instincts were he's a better thrower. Than Tebow, but there's
a lot of Tebow here. He's got to run to
(13:36):
win in this league. No, I hear you, and and
I'm gonna give you slight agreement on this Redskins. First,
I'm gonna tell you why I agree, and then my concerns. Um.
First off, at what point do we give Dallas credit
for dominating Jacksonville. I get it, it it might be Jacksonville's
got a problem we don't see. But Cowboys are an
(13:57):
emotional team. You talk about Tomlin and the Steelers. I
think that momentum helps this team. One number two to
the line we talked about home field is three are
really saying Dallas is clearly the better team. So so
to me in that case, the idea that it's only
a one or one and a half point spread, it's
(14:18):
all about the value, so you know to me that.
And then lastly, when it comes to the pro Cowboys stuff, well,
I'm sorry to check that pro Washington stuff. Dallas just
doesn't play well on the road this year. Seventeen points
better at home this season. Here's my two concerns real quick.
That makes me yeah, I give you a slight one.
(14:39):
Cowboys have won four straight against Washington. And what does
Dallas need to do? You just made the point. Yeah
against Washington. Those four games they've had over six hundred
yards rushing. All right, So unless Washington fixes at that's
a problem. Also, by the way, let me just say this,
Dallas is front seven defensively. It's good. This is not
if this was two and a half points, I'm not
(15:00):
sure i'd let it. I think it's a low scoring game.
I just like twenty to seventeen Washington. But Dallas's defense
is good upfront. Oh hey, the third lease points allowed
in the NFL this year the Dallas Cowboys. And you're
right to total in this game forty one and a half,
which is very low for the NFL. So I'm going
to give you a slight agreement on the skins. I
(15:21):
won't be beat in this game. All right, two more picks.
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(16:02):
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I'm wearing their slacks now it's a little too cold.
I live by the beach to where their shorts. We're
(16:23):
getting into October, but I wore their slacks yesterday, and
I wore the pull over all the time. Peter Mallard,
All right, let's go to my final blazing five picks.
So I have three three to one agreement, So I'm
good with agreement. Um again, the giants will look terrible.
Let's not go crazy here. They didn't move the ball
against the Texans. They moved the ball against Carolina. It
(16:44):
took a sixty yard field goal to beat them. I'm
getting five and a half with the Giants as they're
getting beat up by the press at Atlanta. Atlanta is
a disaster right now. Defensively, again, maybe Atlanta wins at home,
but I think the Giants have shown when the matchup
works up front. They move the ball in the Texans.
(17:05):
They moved the ball in Carolina. I'll take the Giants
plus two points five and a half. More of the
wise guys say agreement. This is a classic pros on
the Giants, Joes on the Falcons. The Joes are looking saying, man,
home fields three, it's just barely above that. Give me
the Falcons, and a lot of the Joes don't want
(17:25):
to beat Eli. I mean some are saying worst quarterback
in the NFL. But boy, the Falcons defense, I mean
it's been banged up. It's banged up, and it's bad
and it's not getting better. Sometimes those second teamers start
to gel. You're not seeing that Freeman's out now, and
then Ridley and Snows banged up. So even on offense,
(17:46):
the playmakers are banged up. The only concern here other
than Eli. Let's be honest, the only concern is this
is the fifth home game in seven weeks for Atlanta,
and they've scored more than thirty points in all four.
They love that Dome. If this game, typically, if you
did a six point switch home to home, I would
(18:07):
much rather have the Giants laying let's say two or
one at home than getting four or five on the road.
That said, the pros really agree with you a ton
on this one. I'm a little more apprehensive agreement. So
four to one agreement, or I would bonus pick only
for R. J. Boll and only for our audience here.
(18:28):
I would take the Bears plush three against the Patriots
New England off a while. I mean, listen, we know
it's New England and they're consistent, But that was the
game of the year in the NFL. That was the
best regular season game in the NFL in about three years.
I think a little letdown the weather, it's getting a
little choppy now, and Trubisky in the last two games
with Matt Nagee kind of chopped it up. Been okay.
(18:51):
So I would take the Bears plus three in a
mild upset. What do the wise guys think? I tell
you there's disagreement on this one from me. I'm gonna
say not the wise guys, this is an RJ disagreement.
Fesik actually likes New England or likes the Bears. That
agrees with you likes the Bears. Here's what I'm feeling
very strongly here quickly is if you look at Naggie
(19:15):
with the Bears, it feels like his elite coaching is
so important to the Bears and especially Trabiski. Well, is
he gonna out coach Belichick? That's the thing. Naggie might
have a coaching adges scheming adge in so many other games,
but I don't think he does against Belichick. And consider this,
(19:37):
and one of our new guys that pregame, his name's Mackey.
He came in with this and it was like it
blew me away. Who did New England play last week?
They played Andy Reid? Well, who's Andy Reid? The mentor
of Naggie. So you're telling me that whatever game prep
that the Patriots did, now they get to like a
(19:59):
chess game. Now Naggie's gonna look at that. I think
they got something figured out, give Mackie a raise. You know, hey,
hey it's a knough, it's a knot. But it wasn't
good at feedback because Belichick is a chess player and
against anybody against Naggie, I want to go with the
chess player Patriots, RJ says, go with him. By the way,
(20:19):
RJ follow him on Twitter. I do at RJ in Vegas.
Founder of pregame dot com, the exclusive odds provider to
the Associated Press. He has a daily one hour show
three to four Pacific, six to seven Eastern Fox Sports Radio.
Good good gaming stuff. Good talking to you, Budd. Thank you,
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