December 22, 2018 • 21 mins
Coming off another winning week Colin gives his Blazing 5 picks from week 16 to RJ Bell of Pregame.com and Fox Sports Radio who tells him which ones the wise guys in Vegas agree with. Plus, Colin releases TWO bonus picks that were not included in his Blazing 5.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Hi, it's the herd. Everybody knows about the risks of
driving drunk. You can get in a crash, people get
hurt or killed, but that still doesn't stop everybody. You
could get arrested, you could incur huge legal expenses, and
you could possibly even lose your job. We all know
the consequences of driving drunk. One thing's for sure. You're wrong.
(00:22):
If you think it's no big deal. It is. Drive
sober or get pulled over. All right, Hi, everybody, welcome
to our Saturday morning podcast, my Blazing five plus two
bonus picks. I gonna give you two. It's our final
blazing five in the regular season because I'm out next
Friday skiing in Utah. Yeah, that'll be fun. But if
(00:45):
Gottlid goes five and oh, then I can take credit
for those. All right, first, here's my blazing five. Let's
blaze it up, Fired Up. It's Collins Blazing five. Ravens
at Charchers Saturday Night game. Charterers minus four and a half.
It's gonna be a good game. Low scoring for a while.
Ravens play real defense. But the Chargers, who we fell
(01:05):
in love with about week eight, lead the NFL in
big plays. With one hundred and eighteen. That's a running
play over ten yards of passing play over twenty. Meanwhile,
Lamar Jackson as yet to throw for two hundred yards
in a game. Baltimore will hang around in this football game,
and they'll keep it close, but in the end, they're
running a wing tee against the most explosive offense in
(01:25):
the National Football League. Chargers win it and cover twenty
seven to twenty Packers and Jets Packers minus three. Like it.
I love the Packers, listen. Sam Darnold played well last week,
best game he's ever played as a pro, and they
still lost at home. They've lost eight of nine games.
They're a total rebuild offensively, offensive line, receivers, backs, they
(01:50):
have a decent tight end, and Sam Darnold. The Packers
are all and seven on the road. They haven't gotten
winless on the road since the fifties. Aaron Rodgers is
playing for a reason to still prove they fired the
coach for the right reasons. I'm going to take the
Jets to battle for a while, but Aaron wins covers
(02:10):
twenty eight twenty three. San Francisco on the road is
a mess oh and seven because they don't have a
starting quarterback of note. But at home they're a tough out.
They have beaten back to back weeks at home Denver
and Seattle, and I like them to be super competitive
here getting four points against Chicago. By the way, Mitch
(02:31):
Trubisky young quarterback. Very good at home, incredibly mediocre away
from home. That happens with young quarterbacks, Yeah, I mean,
it just does. Young quarterbacks are good in spots, but
you get a roller coaster home and away. By the way,
the best statistical rookie quarterback in the league is not
Baker Mayfield. It's Nick Mullins. Look it up, Niners cover.
(02:53):
I think the Bears win last second field goal, but
I'll take the points in the nine twenty four twenty
three Giant said cold, I get the Giants plus nine
and a half. Indianapolis is a better team, but they
just came off a shutout over the Cowboys. They are
feeling themselves today and they're a good team, but they're
not a good enough team to blow people out if
(03:16):
they come down emotionally. The Giants have been a better
road team this year, yet to lose by more than
seven on the road average twenty six A game on
the road again. The culture a better team, but they
are a better There are only a few weeks out
from getting shut out by the Jaguars. They have to
be totally focused. I think they lose a little focus
(03:36):
they win the game, but I'll take the Giants plus
nine and a half thirty twenty three colds, she said.
Seahawks listen. Seattle at home off an embarrassing loss, getting
two and a half points on Sunday Night football. The
Seahawks at home in primetime in the last six years,
including playoffs are sixteen and two and russ so Wilson's
(04:00):
got thirty five touchdowns and nine picks. Seattle's got the
number one ranked running game. The Chiefs have the twenty
six rank rushing defense. Patrick Mahomes will watch this game
from the sidelines for most of it. Ball control raining
in Seattle, pressures on Kansas City. Twenty eight, twenty six,
(04:21):
Seahawks win. I will take the two and a half points.
All right, now we bring in RJ Bell, founder of
pregame dot Com. Pregame dot com is the exclusive odds
provider to the Associated Press at RJ in Vegas. All Right,
we came off another winning week final regular season Blazing five.
I'm gonna start with this Giants Colts nine and a
(04:45):
half for a team the Giants that have actually played
better on the road. The Colts rof a huge impressive win,
shut out win over the Cowboys. I like the Colts.
I think they will have a little pullback. Forget they
were shut out by the Jags not long ago. They're
an imperfect club. I'll take the Giants plus nine and
(05:05):
a half or of the wise guys think so, the
Coats have won seven of eight. In your rational is,
remember the one game they lost in those eight games?
What was that? Well, the Jacks, it was the Jags.
It was the one loss. So listen, you've got agreement.
I don't like this, right, So the wise guys are
with you. But here's my point. Here's why they're with you,
(05:26):
because the Coats did look by far their best right
so high by low? Well the theory is the culture
really high right now? But I just wonder is it merited?
Meaning the public's just finally jumped on board. But when
you win seven of eight, when you look at DVOA,
which is a great advanced matric, Yes, the culture number
(05:49):
six in the NFL. Yeah, No, I listen, and it's
their defense that has blown people away, and it's young
and it's trending upwards throughout the season. No, I listen.
Culture going to win this game. But man, when you
look at nine and a half, Pat Shermer and the
Giants se Quon Barkley are moving the ball nine and
(06:09):
a half. To me, it's a numbers game. That is
a lot of points. No, No, I agree with you
about the numbers part of it. Are we sure the
Giants are gonna play hard in this game? It's a
road game out of conference. They just got embarrassed against Tennessee.
They had won four or five, right, so there was excitement, yeah,
and that's what I'm remembering. But then they got I mean,
(06:29):
Tennessee dismantled that. Tennessee though crushed Dallas crushed New England.
They can crush your spirit. They are physically an imposing
team and if they get rolling, they kind of suffocate you.
So I've seen Tennessee do that a lot. But I
worry if the Giants had the spirit crushed, maybe it's
not a good thing for this week. So let's just
say this. Most of the wise guys are with you.
(06:49):
I'm skeptical. I think there might be a reason the
culture this expensive. All right, second game, I'm gonna go
over this game. Chargers minus four and a half with
the Ravens. Now here's the thing, right, play real defense.
So I bet you there's great division in Vegas on this.
But when I saw the Chargers play a rookie quarterback
Baker Mayfield, they suffocated him. And I think this is
(07:11):
a wing t offense. I don't think it's sustainable over
the course of sixteen games. And I think Baltimore is
gonna come out West and a team that doesn't throw
the balls going to be kind of a one trick
pony offensively. And I think the Chargers are playing for
a number one seed. So I'm gonna swallow the four
and a half and take the Chargers. What are the
wise guys think agreement here? Now? Listen, if we just
(07:32):
did a head count again, I think more Sharks would
be on the Ravens. They love running in defense. I
agree with the Sharps on the Chargers Ravens versus the
run defenses they've faced five weeks with Lamar Jackson. This
is almost hard to imagine. Colin it's been five of
the sixth worst run defenses in the NFL. It's like
(07:54):
a dream scenario Tibo face this where he faced a
lot of bad teams for about a five game streak,
won close games thanks to a kicker. This is very
tebow esque. But if there's bad teams, it's a little
more obvious bad run defenses. Right. So they faced Kansas City.
Oh that's a good team, right, but they had one
of the worst run defenses. So I do think the
(08:14):
one dimensional element was more effective for Baltimore against these
bad run defenses. Number two, what do you need against
the read option? You need defensive speed on the edges.
The Chargers have that, right, so that's important. Number three,
you mentioned it. I know. I was on with Gottlieb
yesterday and he said he's going to that game on Saturday.
(08:35):
You mentioned you're going to the game on Saturday, This
Saturday night game. I have a feeling Chargers, typically with
a less than passionate fan base, maybe the crowd's going
to be a little more rocking on Saturday night for
the Chargers. Also, Ravens have to travel all the way
across the country on a short week. Remember Saturday game
last thing on this one. A couple of weeks ago,
(08:58):
the Baltimore Ravens played Kansas City. In Kansas City. The
line on that game was seven and a half. Now
it's four to four and a half. So how would
you compare the Chargers to the Chiefs. I think Chargers
are better, all right, so let's just say they're even.
So this line is dropped from seven and a half
at Kansas City to four to four and a half.
(09:19):
I get a Baltimore's won a couple of games, but
what they beat Tampa Bay, They beat the Raider. To me,
this is a sign of the value the difference between
the Kansas City line seven and a half hosting Baltimore
and now charges only four and a half hosting Baltimore.
Agreement Chargers two and oh agreement. The holidays are close,
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gifts that give gifts at Hellsberg Diamonds. All right, Packers Jets,
(10:05):
it was kind of like a pick them until they
announced Aaron Rodgers was going to play. I'm gonna take
Packers minus three. Listen. Sam Darnold played his best game
last week. This is still a team that's banged up offensively,
that is in a complete rebuild in the offseason. They
have no no spark offensively. I don't think Donald will
(10:29):
play that well. I get Aaron Rodgers, Listen. Green Bay
is still a good football team that's underperformed. This was
an easy one for me. I like green Bay minus
the field goal. What are the wise guys think. I'm
a big believer that nobody. I don't care who you are.
Jimmy the Greek in his best day didn't know more
(10:50):
than the team knows about that team. So you look
at and you've got and you don't always say it,
but I can kind of hear it. You've got GMS
and scout you talk to and you hear about these teams,
and they know more about their own team than any
media guy any better does Why is Aaron Rodgers playing
in this game? Let me ask you, meaning that they
(11:12):
just shut down, they're running back Jones. They don't have
any chance to make the playoffs. Aaron Rodgers has been
hobbled with the entire season. Why are they This is
a meaningless game, and there he is their franchise. Why
is he playing? I don't know. I don't either. There's
some reason though. The very fact Aaron Rodgers is playing
(11:33):
makes me agree with you on the Packers. He wants to.
He would not go through the motions and play. If
he didn't want to play hard, he wouldn't be here.
And then the rest of the team is looking and say, wait,
if Aaron's playing hard, we better play hard. I think
that Q from Aaron is the key to this game. Also,
you mentioned the Jets their number one wide receiver out,
(11:55):
number one running back out. Also, and this is a
sneaky big injury. Offensive tackle Brandon Shall out now his
replacement on Pro Football Focus has a score of twenty nine.
That means seventy is above average player, twenty nine is
about as low as you go. The backup to that
(12:16):
tackle hasn't taken a snap all year, so literally you
took their worst tackle, replaced him with one of the
worst tackles in the league, and the backup hasn't played
a snap all year. No one's going to talk about Shall,
but that is a big deal Packers agreement. All right,
Bears at forty nine ers, I think you could have
an upset here. I think the forty nine ers at
(12:37):
home are a pretty good team. Bears have their division
wrapped up. Anybody that's got a nick or a cut,
they'll sit. Four's too many here. I think it's a
very very close game. And again, the Niners can run
the ball. Nate Mullins has been a remarkable story. I'm
gonna take the points here. Can I make it four?
No agreement? What are the wise guys think? Yeah? Biggest
agreement of the week here? All right? I mean this
(12:58):
is a classic wise guy play. I don't disagree, but
I do have one caveat let me ask you this question.
Though you don't think the Bears are motivated by a
potential buying a number two seeds? I do, But I
also think they've got like Eddie Jackson, They've got a
bunch of guys banged up, and I think they're gonna
rest some of them, And I think that sends kind
(13:19):
of a message that let's go out West, let's let's
win this football game. But I think I think deep
down there they're gonna host. They're gonna host a playoff game.
They're they're pretty sure they're not gonna host a second one.
In defense travels well, So I think they're comfortable where
they're at hosting a playoff game against like a you know,
(13:40):
a Dallas or something, and then having to go on
the road in LA, which is the most likely scenario.
I think they're comfortable with that. Yeah, I see. To me,
I agree with you about a number of those things. One,
Eddie Jackson is a big safety, huge, huge star for them. Yeah,
I mean really one of the emerging stars this year.
Nick Marlins on the forty nine side a shocking league,
(14:02):
good season. There's a site called Football Perspective saying Nick
Mollins is the best rookie quarterback this year if you
just look at the stats. That's very interesting. Now here's
another thing that makes me like the forty nine ers,
Chicago's offense. You're right, the defense travels well. The offense
O Dvoa at home. Number fourteen on the road number
(14:23):
twenty nine, So Chicago not as good on the road offensively, Okay,
good forty nine Ers defense at home number thirteen on
the road number twenty four. So this is a really
good home thing for San Fran situation. Here's my concern,
last thing. Third straight home game for sam Fran. That's great, right,
but let's use the spread to compare. Two weeks ago
(14:45):
they played Denver. Denver is a slightly if not more
than slightly blow average team. Sam Fran was plus four
at home, they won, they covered. Then Seattle came in.
Seattle much better in Denver. Right, well, Seattle was plus
four San Francisco one and covered. Now Chicago comes in
(15:06):
much better than Seattle and they're plus four. So literally,
two weeks ago the forty nine ers we're getting four
against Denver, and now they're getting four against Chicago. That
is a lot of adjustment on a team in two weeks. Four.
No agreement, that's your focus, none of those other concern
I forget the games. It's all about me, all right.
(15:28):
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(16:32):
All right, going for a perfect agreement. This week. Kansas
City in the last month has been a bad team
to bet with. Seattle comes off an ugly, ugly loss,
it's gonna be raining. They are incredible. Russell Wilson's record
in primetime standalone games is phenomenal. I'm gonna take the
(16:54):
inferior team barely at home, bad weather, Russell Wilson and
two and a half one of the wise guys think disagreement.
This is another example. If you just did a headcount,
I think you have more sharps agreeing with you on Seattle,
and there's a lot of reasons to back that up.
Number One, Seattle as a two and a half point
(17:15):
or greater home underdog has covered eleven straight times. So
Seattle is very good at home. Wow, especially in primetime,
especially when the crowd rocking and when they're getting points,
They're very very good at home. You combine the two
eleven straight covers, well, that sounds great, right. And also
if you look at Kansas City last five games since
(17:38):
cream Hunt in that incident, zero covers in five games.
So literally, by definition, to spread is what Vegas expects,
and Kansas City has not exceeded expectation once in the
last five games. Okay, Why then do I disagree with
your Seattle. Here's the key cluster injuries. What do you
(17:58):
need to defend Kansas City? You need interior cover guys
to defend the backs and all the little things they're
doing tight ends across the middle. Well, Seattle has two safeties,
both one doubtful and one is very questionable Thompson. So
if come game day both those safeties play, I'm going
to be right on Seattle with you. If one safety plays,
(18:22):
I think the game's a toss up. If you have
both safeties out for Seattle, that is a nightmare. Imagine
having your third and fourth safeties trying to cover Kansas City. Yeah,
that's a good point. By the way, R J. Bell
hosts the first ever national network radio show covering sports
betting weekday six to sevent Eastern on Fox Sports Radio.
It's a great show. I'm gonna give a couple of
(18:42):
bonus picks just for fun. We'll just do these quick.
But I would take the Lions plus six hosting Minnesota.
What would the wise guys say, I'm going to give
you a big disagreement. There another injury situation. I know.
This isn't like sexy radio Sexy podcast. But if you
want to win, these injuries matter. So the strongest thing
(19:03):
Detroit has had recently is defensive line. Remember they traded
the Giants for Snacks Harrison. I'd love to say Snacks
first of all, but number two is the idea that,
oh my gosh, if you look at that D line,
they had one of the better of the lines D
lines in the NFL. What's happened just in the last
(19:24):
week or two. One of their key guys, his last
name is hand out for the season and now Snacks
Harrison is doubtful to play. So they had three good
interior guys. That goes to one. And what did Minnesota
commit to with the new OC last week running the ball?
So if Snacks is out, Minnesota's healthy by the way,
too well app Oh yeah, and remember Minnesota has a
(19:47):
scenario calling where they get Monday off if they win
the game. The player said, coach, we don't want Monday off.
Imagine that intensity late in the year they practiced on Monday.
All right. I would so take the Eagles minus one
and a half against the Texans. I don't trust the Texans,
you know, these late season games. I just don't trust them.
(20:07):
They don't feel today as good as they work three
weeks ago. What would the wise guys say? There, I
tell you this is just split down the middle. I
could try to give you one, but let me just
give you quickly the two big factors. One, I think
people are overreacting to the Eagles really impressive win with foes.
On the other hand, Houston has a bad old line
for a good team. Yes, and Philly and Philly's strength
(20:30):
on defense up front, So that's Cox eat good old lines.
That is a negative for HU. That's a huge part
for this. Michael Bennett's playing well. Fletcher Cox is one
of the top ten players in the league. Agreed, Yeah, no,
he means that dominant. So it's a split game for
the wise guys. Yes, well that's good. All right, we'll
talk soon. We're still gonna do some of this stuff
(20:51):
on Saturdays for the playoffs. But this is my last
regular season Blazing five r J Low, haven't you absolutely
and call if you got a second Yeah, the listeners
might be interested, said, we are number two right now
in the biggest picking contest ever. It's literally six hundred
forty thousand, five thousand dollars to enter winner take all
six forties. This online or where is this? This is
(21:12):
just on my Twitter at our Jane Vegas. I will
tweet out the standings and the five picks. It's a casino,
the Westgate here in town is all. That's a great
and your number two. We're we got one guy ahead
of us by one game, right, so if we win
this thing, I might be a little hungover for that
Friday part or just take that guy out, take it
out of the desert. Well, good luck to you, Thank you,
Hi, it's the herd. Everybody knows about the risks of
driving drunk. You can get in a crash, people get
hurt or killed, but that still doesn't stop everybody. You
could get arrested, you could incur huge legal expenses, and
you could possibly even lose your job. We all know
the consequences of driving drunk. One thing's for sure. You're wrong.
(00:22):
If you think it's no big deal. It is. Drive
sober or get pulled over. All right, Hi, everybody, welcome
to our Saturday morning podcast, my Blazing five plus two
bonus picks. I gonna give you two. It's our final
blazing five in the regular season because I'm out next
Friday skiing in Utah. Yeah, that'll be fun. But if
(00:45):
Gottlid goes five and oh, then I can take credit
for those. All right, first, here's my blazing five. Let's
blaze it up, Fired Up. It's Collins Blazing five. Ravens
at Charchers Saturday Night game. Charterers minus four and a half.
It's gonna be a good game. Low scoring for a while.
Ravens play real defense. But the Chargers, who we fell
(01:05):
in love with about week eight, lead the NFL in
big plays. With one hundred and eighteen. That's a running
play over ten yards of passing play over twenty. Meanwhile,
Lamar Jackson as yet to throw for two hundred yards
in a game. Baltimore will hang around in this football game,
and they'll keep it close, but in the end, they're
running a wing tee against the most explosive offense in
(01:25):
the National Football League. Chargers win it and cover twenty
seven to twenty Packers and Jets Packers minus three. Like it.
I love the Packers, listen. Sam Darnold played well last week,
best game he's ever played as a pro, and they
still lost at home. They've lost eight of nine games.
They're a total rebuild offensively, offensive line, receivers, backs, they
(01:50):
have a decent tight end, and Sam Darnold. The Packers
are all and seven on the road. They haven't gotten
winless on the road since the fifties. Aaron Rodgers is
playing for a reason to still prove they fired the
coach for the right reasons. I'm going to take the
Jets to battle for a while, but Aaron wins covers
(02:10):
twenty eight twenty three. San Francisco on the road is
a mess oh and seven because they don't have a
starting quarterback of note. But at home they're a tough out.
They have beaten back to back weeks at home Denver
and Seattle, and I like them to be super competitive
here getting four points against Chicago. By the way, Mitch
(02:31):
Trubisky young quarterback. Very good at home, incredibly mediocre away
from home. That happens with young quarterbacks, Yeah, I mean,
it just does. Young quarterbacks are good in spots, but
you get a roller coaster home and away. By the way,
the best statistical rookie quarterback in the league is not
Baker Mayfield. It's Nick Mullins. Look it up, Niners cover.
(02:53):
I think the Bears win last second field goal, but
I'll take the points in the nine twenty four twenty
three Giant said cold, I get the Giants plus nine
and a half. Indianapolis is a better team, but they
just came off a shutout over the Cowboys. They are
feeling themselves today and they're a good team, but they're
not a good enough team to blow people out if
(03:16):
they come down emotionally. The Giants have been a better
road team this year, yet to lose by more than
seven on the road average twenty six A game on
the road again. The culture a better team, but they
are a better There are only a few weeks out
from getting shut out by the Jaguars. They have to
be totally focused. I think they lose a little focus
(03:36):
they win the game, but I'll take the Giants plus
nine and a half thirty twenty three colds, she said.
Seahawks listen. Seattle at home off an embarrassing loss, getting
two and a half points on Sunday Night football. The
Seahawks at home in primetime in the last six years,
including playoffs are sixteen and two and russ so Wilson's
(04:00):
got thirty five touchdowns and nine picks. Seattle's got the
number one ranked running game. The Chiefs have the twenty
six rank rushing defense. Patrick Mahomes will watch this game
from the sidelines for most of it. Ball control raining
in Seattle, pressures on Kansas City. Twenty eight, twenty six,
(04:21):
Seahawks win. I will take the two and a half points.
All right, now we bring in RJ Bell, founder of
pregame dot Com. Pregame dot com is the exclusive odds
provider to the Associated Press at RJ in Vegas. All Right,
we came off another winning week final regular season Blazing five.
I'm gonna start with this Giants Colts nine and a
(04:45):
half for a team the Giants that have actually played
better on the road. The Colts rof a huge impressive win,
shut out win over the Cowboys. I like the Colts.
I think they will have a little pullback. Forget they
were shut out by the Jags not long ago. They're
an imperfect club. I'll take the Giants plus nine and
(05:05):
a half or of the wise guys think so, the
Coats have won seven of eight. In your rational is,
remember the one game they lost in those eight games?
What was that? Well, the Jacks, it was the Jags.
It was the one loss. So listen, you've got agreement.
I don't like this, right, So the wise guys are
with you. But here's my point. Here's why they're with you,
(05:26):
because the Coats did look by far their best right
so high by low? Well the theory is the culture
really high right now? But I just wonder is it merited?
Meaning the public's just finally jumped on board. But when
you win seven of eight, when you look at DVOA,
which is a great advanced matric, Yes, the culture number
(05:49):
six in the NFL. Yeah, No, I listen, and it's
their defense that has blown people away, and it's young
and it's trending upwards throughout the season. No, I listen.
Culture going to win this game. But man, when you
look at nine and a half, Pat Shermer and the
Giants se Quon Barkley are moving the ball nine and
(06:09):
a half. To me, it's a numbers game. That is
a lot of points. No, No, I agree with you
about the numbers part of it. Are we sure the
Giants are gonna play hard in this game? It's a
road game out of conference. They just got embarrassed against Tennessee.
They had won four or five, right, so there was excitement, yeah,
and that's what I'm remembering. But then they got I mean,
(06:29):
Tennessee dismantled that. Tennessee though crushed Dallas crushed New England.
They can crush your spirit. They are physically an imposing
team and if they get rolling, they kind of suffocate you.
So I've seen Tennessee do that a lot. But I
worry if the Giants had the spirit crushed, maybe it's
not a good thing for this week. So let's just
say this. Most of the wise guys are with you.
(06:49):
I'm skeptical. I think there might be a reason the
culture this expensive. All right, second game, I'm gonna go
over this game. Chargers minus four and a half with
the Ravens. Now here's the thing, right, play real defense.
So I bet you there's great division in Vegas on this.
But when I saw the Chargers play a rookie quarterback
Baker Mayfield, they suffocated him. And I think this is
(07:11):
a wing t offense. I don't think it's sustainable over
the course of sixteen games. And I think Baltimore is
gonna come out West and a team that doesn't throw
the balls going to be kind of a one trick
pony offensively. And I think the Chargers are playing for
a number one seed. So I'm gonna swallow the four
and a half and take the Chargers. What are the
wise guys think agreement here? Now? Listen, if we just
(07:32):
did a head count again, I think more Sharks would
be on the Ravens. They love running in defense. I
agree with the Sharps on the Chargers Ravens versus the
run defenses they've faced five weeks with Lamar Jackson. This
is almost hard to imagine. Colin it's been five of
the sixth worst run defenses in the NFL. It's like
(07:54):
a dream scenario Tibo face this where he faced a
lot of bad teams for about a five game streak,
won close games thanks to a kicker. This is very
tebow esque. But if there's bad teams, it's a little
more obvious bad run defenses. Right. So they faced Kansas City.
Oh that's a good team, right, but they had one
of the worst run defenses. So I do think the
(08:14):
one dimensional element was more effective for Baltimore against these
bad run defenses. Number two, what do you need against
the read option? You need defensive speed on the edges.
The Chargers have that, right, so that's important. Number three,
you mentioned it. I know. I was on with Gottlieb
yesterday and he said he's going to that game on Saturday.
(08:35):
You mentioned you're going to the game on Saturday, This
Saturday night game. I have a feeling Chargers, typically with
a less than passionate fan base, maybe the crowd's going
to be a little more rocking on Saturday night for
the Chargers. Also, Ravens have to travel all the way
across the country on a short week. Remember Saturday game
last thing on this one. A couple of weeks ago,
(08:58):
the Baltimore Ravens played Kansas City. In Kansas City. The
line on that game was seven and a half. Now
it's four to four and a half. So how would
you compare the Chargers to the Chiefs. I think Chargers
are better, all right, so let's just say they're even.
So this line is dropped from seven and a half
at Kansas City to four to four and a half.
(09:19):
I get a Baltimore's won a couple of games, but
what they beat Tampa Bay, They beat the Raider. To me,
this is a sign of the value the difference between
the Kansas City line seven and a half hosting Baltimore
and now charges only four and a half hosting Baltimore.
Agreement Chargers two and oh agreement. The holidays are close,
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gifts that give gifts at Hellsberg Diamonds. All right, Packers Jets,
(10:05):
it was kind of like a pick them until they
announced Aaron Rodgers was going to play. I'm gonna take
Packers minus three. Listen. Sam Darnold played his best game
last week. This is still a team that's banged up offensively,
that is in a complete rebuild in the offseason. They
have no no spark offensively. I don't think Donald will
(10:29):
play that well. I get Aaron Rodgers, Listen. Green Bay
is still a good football team that's underperformed. This was
an easy one for me. I like green Bay minus
the field goal. What are the wise guys think. I'm
a big believer that nobody. I don't care who you are.
Jimmy the Greek in his best day didn't know more
(10:50):
than the team knows about that team. So you look
at and you've got and you don't always say it,
but I can kind of hear it. You've got GMS
and scout you talk to and you hear about these teams,
and they know more about their own team than any
media guy any better does Why is Aaron Rodgers playing
in this game? Let me ask you, meaning that they
(11:12):
just shut down, they're running back Jones. They don't have
any chance to make the playoffs. Aaron Rodgers has been
hobbled with the entire season. Why are they This is
a meaningless game, and there he is their franchise. Why
is he playing? I don't know. I don't either. There's
some reason though. The very fact Aaron Rodgers is playing
(11:33):
makes me agree with you on the Packers. He wants to.
He would not go through the motions and play. If
he didn't want to play hard, he wouldn't be here.
And then the rest of the team is looking and say, wait,
if Aaron's playing hard, we better play hard. I think
that Q from Aaron is the key to this game. Also,
you mentioned the Jets their number one wide receiver out,
(11:55):
number one running back out. Also, and this is a
sneaky big injury. Offensive tackle Brandon Shall out now his
replacement on Pro Football Focus has a score of twenty nine.
That means seventy is above average player, twenty nine is
about as low as you go. The backup to that
(12:16):
tackle hasn't taken a snap all year, so literally you
took their worst tackle, replaced him with one of the
worst tackles in the league, and the backup hasn't played
a snap all year. No one's going to talk about Shall,
but that is a big deal Packers agreement. All right,
Bears at forty nine ers, I think you could have
an upset here. I think the forty nine ers at
(12:37):
home are a pretty good team. Bears have their division
wrapped up. Anybody that's got a nick or a cut,
they'll sit. Four's too many here. I think it's a
very very close game. And again, the Niners can run
the ball. Nate Mullins has been a remarkable story. I'm
gonna take the points here. Can I make it four?
No agreement? What are the wise guys think? Yeah? Biggest
agreement of the week here? All right? I mean this
(12:58):
is a classic wise guy play. I don't disagree, but
I do have one caveat let me ask you this question.
Though you don't think the Bears are motivated by a
potential buying a number two seeds? I do, But I
also think they've got like Eddie Jackson, They've got a
bunch of guys banged up, and I think they're gonna
rest some of them, And I think that sends kind
(13:19):
of a message that let's go out West, let's let's
win this football game. But I think I think deep
down there they're gonna host. They're gonna host a playoff game.
They're they're pretty sure they're not gonna host a second one.
In defense travels well, So I think they're comfortable where
they're at hosting a playoff game against like a you know,
(13:40):
a Dallas or something, and then having to go on
the road in LA, which is the most likely scenario.
I think they're comfortable with that. Yeah, I see. To me,
I agree with you about a number of those things. One,
Eddie Jackson is a big safety, huge, huge star for them. Yeah,
I mean really one of the emerging stars this year.
Nick Marlins on the forty nine side a shocking league,
(14:02):
good season. There's a site called Football Perspective saying Nick
Mollins is the best rookie quarterback this year if you
just look at the stats. That's very interesting. Now here's
another thing that makes me like the forty nine ers,
Chicago's offense. You're right, the defense travels well. The offense
O Dvoa at home. Number fourteen on the road number
(14:23):
twenty nine, So Chicago not as good on the road offensively, Okay,
good forty nine Ers defense at home number thirteen on
the road number twenty four. So this is a really
good home thing for San Fran situation. Here's my concern,
last thing. Third straight home game for sam Fran. That's great, right,
but let's use the spread to compare. Two weeks ago
(14:45):
they played Denver. Denver is a slightly if not more
than slightly blow average team. Sam Fran was plus four
at home, they won, they covered. Then Seattle came in.
Seattle much better in Denver. Right, well, Seattle was plus
four San Francisco one and covered. Now Chicago comes in
(15:06):
much better than Seattle and they're plus four. So literally,
two weeks ago the forty nine ers we're getting four
against Denver, and now they're getting four against Chicago. That
is a lot of adjustment on a team in two weeks. Four.
No agreement, that's your focus, none of those other concern
I forget the games. It's all about me, all right.
(15:28):
Although one second, guys, if you travel over work and
you're looking for a small comforts, and I am when
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(15:50):
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Very very comfortable. The PERF looks great over a polo,
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(16:11):
go hit the tennis ball. I wear it over workout stuff.
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(16:32):
All right, going for a perfect agreement. This week. Kansas
City in the last month has been a bad team
to bet with. Seattle comes off an ugly, ugly loss,
it's gonna be raining. They are incredible. Russell Wilson's record
in primetime standalone games is phenomenal. I'm gonna take the
(16:54):
inferior team barely at home, bad weather, Russell Wilson and
two and a half one of the wise guys think disagreement.
This is another example. If you just did a headcount,
I think you have more sharps agreeing with you on Seattle,
and there's a lot of reasons to back that up.
Number One, Seattle as a two and a half point
(17:15):
or greater home underdog has covered eleven straight times. So
Seattle is very good at home. Wow, especially in primetime,
especially when the crowd rocking and when they're getting points,
They're very very good at home. You combine the two
eleven straight covers, well, that sounds great, right. And also
if you look at Kansas City last five games since
(17:38):
cream Hunt in that incident, zero covers in five games.
So literally, by definition, to spread is what Vegas expects,
and Kansas City has not exceeded expectation once in the
last five games. Okay, Why then do I disagree with
your Seattle. Here's the key cluster injuries. What do you
(17:58):
need to defend Kansas City? You need interior cover guys
to defend the backs and all the little things they're
doing tight ends across the middle. Well, Seattle has two safeties,
both one doubtful and one is very questionable Thompson. So
if come game day both those safeties play, I'm going
to be right on Seattle with you. If one safety plays,
(18:22):
I think the game's a toss up. If you have
both safeties out for Seattle, that is a nightmare. Imagine
having your third and fourth safeties trying to cover Kansas City. Yeah,
that's a good point. By the way, R J. Bell
hosts the first ever national network radio show covering sports
betting weekday six to sevent Eastern on Fox Sports Radio.
It's a great show. I'm gonna give a couple of
(18:42):
bonus picks just for fun. We'll just do these quick.
But I would take the Lions plus six hosting Minnesota.
What would the wise guys say, I'm going to give
you a big disagreement. There another injury situation. I know.
This isn't like sexy radio Sexy podcast. But if you
want to win, these injuries matter. So the strongest thing
(19:03):
Detroit has had recently is defensive line. Remember they traded
the Giants for Snacks Harrison. I'd love to say Snacks
first of all, but number two is the idea that,
oh my gosh, if you look at that D line,
they had one of the better of the lines D
lines in the NFL. What's happened just in the last
(19:24):
week or two. One of their key guys, his last
name is hand out for the season and now Snacks
Harrison is doubtful to play. So they had three good
interior guys. That goes to one. And what did Minnesota
commit to with the new OC last week running the ball?
So if Snacks is out, Minnesota's healthy by the way,
too well app Oh yeah, and remember Minnesota has a
(19:47):
scenario calling where they get Monday off if they win
the game. The player said, coach, we don't want Monday off.
Imagine that intensity late in the year they practiced on Monday.
All right. I would so take the Eagles minus one
and a half against the Texans. I don't trust the Texans,
you know, these late season games. I just don't trust them.
(20:07):
They don't feel today as good as they work three
weeks ago. What would the wise guys say? There, I
tell you this is just split down the middle. I
could try to give you one, but let me just
give you quickly the two big factors. One, I think
people are overreacting to the Eagles really impressive win with foes.
On the other hand, Houston has a bad old line
for a good team. Yes, and Philly and Philly's strength
(20:30):
on defense up front, So that's Cox eat good old lines.
That is a negative for HU. That's a huge part
for this. Michael Bennett's playing well. Fletcher Cox is one
of the top ten players in the league. Agreed, Yeah, no,
he means that dominant. So it's a split game for
the wise guys. Yes, well that's good. All right, we'll
talk soon. We're still gonna do some of this stuff
(20:51):
on Saturdays for the playoffs. But this is my last
regular season Blazing five r J Low, haven't you absolutely
and call if you got a second Yeah, the listeners
might be interested, said, we are number two right now
in the biggest picking contest ever. It's literally six hundred
forty thousand, five thousand dollars to enter winner take all
six forties. This online or where is this? This is
(21:12):
just on my Twitter at our Jane Vegas. I will
tweet out the standings and the five picks. It's a casino,
the Westgate here in town is all. That's a great
and your number two. We're we got one guy ahead
of us by one game, right, so if we win
this thing, I might be a little hungover for that
Friday part or just take that guy out, take it
out of the desert. Well, good luck to you, Thank you,
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