June 13, 2025 • 30 mins
Join Joe Pisapia, Pat Fitzmaurice, and Derek Brown as they highlight six players that they are scared to draft in 2025 fantasy football leagues based on their projections!
Timestamps: (May be off due to ads)
Intro - 0:00:00
Chase Brown - 0:01:43
Drake Maye - 0:05:52
Tyreek Hill - 0:12:54
DraftKings Sportsbook - 0:17:32
Kyren Williams - 0:18:43
Xavier Worthy - 0:23:52
Bucky Irving - 0:27:15
Outro - 0:28:54
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome in everybody to Fantasy Pros.
Speaker 2 (00:02):
This is the Fantasy Football Podcast. It is me Joey
p Joe Pi Zapia, and today we're going to talk
about the projections that scare us. That's right, it's time
to hide under the covers because there's some guys where
the projections this year might not be as good as
they are perceived. And of course there's nobody better to
help us figure out who those players might be. And
(00:23):
of course Debro Derek Brown, the King of Bros. The
man who gets sunburned in the shade. And Pat Fitzmorris,
just fresh off of golf outing who I believe his
handicap is. What do you like a three handicap right now? FITZI,
you're just spectacular like a thirty. Oh I forgot the
other three. I always forget the other three when it
comes to you. But the boys are here and we
(00:44):
are locked in again. The projections you can find right
now that we're basing this show off or there at
fantasypros dot com slash projections. That's the place you can
find all the ones we're going through today. And as
we go through, some of the big names here on
this list that might scare the crap out of us
in twenty twenty five. We want you to be with
us for all of the twenty twenty five season, so
(01:05):
drop your comments below, subscribe to the Fantasy Bros. YouTube channel.
We're trying to get to three hundred thousand this year,
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(01:25):
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Make sure you like the videos and ring the bell
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piece of content here on the channel. All right, gentlemen,
let's get after it. Let's start with some of the
names on our list that scare us in twenty twenty five.
From a projection standpoint, debro, let's start with a running
back on your list.
Speaker 1 (01:45):
It's Chase Brown. Talk to me, dude. I was kind
of surprised and going through this looking at just projections
and talking about media outcomes. I was shocked that we
and our projections have Chase Brown as RB seven teen
right now. So if that comes to fruition, yes, we
all need to be scared because we are drafting him
(02:07):
in early best balls and ranking him as an RB one,
and I understand what we're doing it. He was the
RB four in Fantasy points per game last year, averaging
almost one hundred and seventeen total yards when he was
the starter. So for me, like I've had a little
bit of worries about Chase Brown because during that stretch
it was all volume. He was awesome, he was Cincinnati CMC.
(02:28):
The per touch efficiency is a little more concerning for
me as a player who for all the big play
potential we saw in college, the speed that wasn't there.
I mean, this guy was outside the top twenty four
running backs and explosive run rate, misstackles force per attempt,
and yards of to contact per attempt. So I've had
my worries about Chase Brown. Although I've been pretty much
in line with consensus on ranking this RB seventeen projection
(02:52):
scares the crap out of me. Man, Like, if that's
where he goes he's gonna be a big bust this
coming year because people are expecting RB one production if
they are rafting Chase Brown.
Speaker 2 (03:01):
Yeah, it is a little bit of a peculiar one,
especially when you consider what's around that backfield, Zach Moss
and Smagi p Ryan. I don't think those guys are
really terrifying Pat. Since Debro brings it up, he makes
a good point. You're looking at the ADP of Chase
Brown at twelve RB overall you got ec RT fourteen,
so there's a lot of fallout potentially if he falls backwards.
(03:22):
Do you think the projections are based off of how
bad that defense is and how many negative game scripts
are in where they have to throw the ball, because again,
the defense of Cincinnati isn't very good and it is
a throw first kind of offense with Joe Burrow and
those receivers.
Speaker 3 (03:36):
Yeah, I mean, I think it's the lack of volume
that are holding down his projections a little bit. So
last year from November on, Chase Brown averaged eighteen point
nine carries four point eight catches a game. Now, I
don't expect him to average twenty three point six touches
a game like he did over the second half of
last season. But I do think Chase Brown is still
(03:58):
pretty safely going to be the lead back in one
of the best offenses in the league. And sure, someone
is probably going to emerge as a tag team partner
for Chase Brown, but like who won this Bengals roster
could threaten Chase Brown's primacy in this backfield. Like Taj Brooks,
I like him, but he's not better than Chase Brown,
(04:18):
Zach Moss, Samaj p ry No, and our projections have
Chase Brown at something like fifteen or sixteen touches a game.
They have him at under two hundred carries for the season.
I think they're probably a little light there, so I've
Chased Brown at RB eleven in my rankings. Like, I know,
we're probably not going to see huge weekly workloads for
(04:40):
Chase Brown again this year, so I maybe agree with
the projections on that, but I do think we'll get
significant workloads and still the attractive weekly ceilings in a
high flying offense. And you know, I'm not too worried
about the like I know in college, kind of a
different story there because he was runningt ground by Brad
(05:01):
Bielman in his last college season at Illinois, like averaged
over twenty carries a game, so he was running up
against stack boxes all the time. He is never going
to get run against a stack box in Cincinnati with
Joe Burrow at quarterback. It's just not going to happen.
So I think we can kind of count on the
efficiency staying h Yeah, I would agree. I mean, look,
(05:23):
I think all three of us, like Chase Brown, I
think we should all be a little concerned that the
projections are a little on the lower side. But in
those PPR leagues too, he was very consistent in the
last about eight games of the season, really seeing steady
target volume two. So that's a plus in his game
as well, and he seemed to handle the workload as
he got deep into the season. Two he had games
where he had twenty five carries, eighteen carries, twenty carries
(05:44):
to kind of finish out the year when they got hot, right,
and that offense really didn't start clicking until the second
half of the season anyway, it was too little, too
late for the Bengals unfortunately. FITZI, let's see if we
can switch gears here and talk about a player who's
projections right now scare you just a tad. Yeah, let's
talk about May, who I am really into this year.
And the reason I am is that we know rushing
(06:05):
ability is a cheat code for quarterbacks. But most of
the qbs who provide substantial rushing value are really expensive
in fantasy drafts, or will be once the twenty twenty
five draft season kicks off. Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts,
Jadeen Daniels. But you can turn a big profit if
(06:26):
you can find a quarterback who provides prolific rushing value
but isn't very expensive, and I think Drake May can
be that guy. May started twelve games as a rookie,
but if we exclude Week eighteen, when he only played
three snaps before he was pulled, May average four point
nine carries and thirty eight point three rushing yards over
(06:46):
a full season. That would project to six hundred and
fifty one rushing yards. And I think May could actually
do better than that. As a sophomore in North Carolina,
he had six hundred and ninety eight rushing yards. And
remember that college quarterbacks have sacked carriage deducted from their
rushing yardage, So yeah, May lost about two hundred yards
in sacks that year, so he was really closer to
(07:07):
eight hundred and fifty rushing yards in only fourteen games. Also,
Drake May had two touchdown runs last season and his
two college seasons as a starter sixteen TV runs in
twenty six games. So the projections have Drake May QB
twenty in fantasy scoring. That's the scary part. I have
May at QB nine, so big alarming gap there, although
(07:30):
I certainly won't feel compelled to actually draft Mays the
QB nine if I know I can get him somewhere
in the teams, but it is a little scary that
May comes in as a mid range to low end
QB two in the projections. I don't even have a
big beef with the passing projections for him, which are
about thirty three hundred yards twenty one TD passes, but
(07:50):
I do think the rushing projections for May are a
little light five hundred and thirty eight yards two point
six TD runs. I'll pretty confidently bet the over on
those numbers.
Speaker 2 (08:00):
Now. I'm also high on Drake May this year, and
those projections for me, again doing all the quarterback right
ups in the Black Book and going through where I
like him in super Flex. He's a tremendous value and
target of mine this year in super Flex drafts because
of that rushing equity. He's projected in our system right
now for five hundred and thirty six rushing yards. That
does feel light to me, Debro, Are you a fitsie
(08:20):
and I are on this point in Drake May, like
you can speculate where the touchdown totals are going to
lie and where this offense might be. It can only
be better than last year. I think we all know that.
How much better that's a big question, But we're talking
about the baseline of fantasy points. The rushing equity matters
a ton, and Drake May's playmaking ability was already on display,
and those two things make him really intriguing to both
(08:43):
of us. How about to you, are you a little
afraid of these projections being a little lower than maybe
we are on Drake May this season.
Speaker 1 (08:50):
I'm actually in line with these projections, Like right now,
I've got Drake May as my QB twenty I think,
And this isn't so much the hate on May, I
like May do. It just comes down until there's a
lot of quarterbacks in that QB two film that I
like more than Drake May. And it's not just the
I mean because honestly his rushing, like his rushing projection
is nice here. I mean like tenth in attempts, eighth
(09:12):
and rushing yards like I don't I don't see May
as a guy that I think he's gonna go out
and rush for like seven eight hundred yards, So sticking
him in that mid five category. Maybe the rushing touchdowns
are light, but we don't know what New England's gonna
do with the goal line and it could be just
Romandre Stevenson says in every single time they get inside
the fire of the ten. So I guess my worry
(09:35):
And it comes back to these projections for Drake May
this year and why I'm lower than you guys are
is because of the passing, like if if the volume
isn't there. Because I think we can all agree New
England Patriots their defense is going to be much improved,
if not really stinking good this year. Yes, and so
are we going to see Josh McDaniels airing the ball out?
(09:56):
Are they gonna play more conservative? But they're gonna go
run heavy? Is Mike Rabel Al's gonna have a saying
what this offense looks like versus passing volume and rushing
volume and how that all plays out in game script,
because Joe, I mean, you've you've made the case on
here before that the Patriots betting the over on their
win totals. Okay, Well, if that's the case, it's probably
not related to what's fueling them winning games, which could
(10:18):
be a lot of ugly games. That's probably not gonna
be related to their high flying offense led by Vermandre
Stevenson and Hire Williams and Sell Dicks.
Speaker 2 (10:27):
Patriot football wasn't always pretty. I mean, it was the
defense running the football and Tom Brady, you know, being
Tom Brady in the big moments for some of those
tougher games.
Speaker 1 (10:35):
But but that goes back to it's probably not They're
not outscoring teams by probably not every single week. No,
so those wins are gonna be game script's gonna look bad,
and that is that going to depress some of Drake
May's numbers, especially in the passing department. So I don't
have a problem with the projection. I think I can
kind of quibble about, like, Okay, if I bump them up,
you know, two or three rushing touchdowns based off of
(10:58):
where we have him, because I do think it's kind
of light to give him only two point six rushing touchdowns.
Speaker 2 (11:03):
Yeah, that seems light to me too. I think it's
more like four or.
Speaker 1 (11:05):
Five easily, so can like and the other thing I'll
point out with when we're doing these projections, if you
give him those two or three rushing touchdowns, like right
now in our projections, he's got two hundred and six
or two sixty three fantasy points. If we were to
give him even two more rushing touchdowns, you're talking about
vaulting him up like five six spots. So he's at
(11:27):
QB fourteen if we give him three or more rushing touchdowns.
So that's honestly, if we're gonna qibble about the projection,
I think it's the rushing touchdown total, and that could
vault him up into that you know, fringe maybe just
outside QB one territory.
Speaker 2 (11:41):
I think what's so interesting for me, FITZI, just real
quick going back to you for a second, is when
you look at the projections on the total points, May
is behind. We're basically tied with Stafford and JJ McCarthy,
And I find that kind of odd because personally, as
much as I really like McCarthy this year, in the
situation he's in, I just feel a little bit more
confident that May is. I've seen enough of May where
(12:01):
I'm like, Okay, he gets it, he's in there. I
think he's ready to go. He's got a much better
set of surroundings. You have him at nine, so clearly
you would agree with that fact too. Like him McCarthy
are not close.
Speaker 3 (12:11):
For you, Yeah, they played capably in the worst possible
circumstances bad offensive pass catchers. Yeah, And like, I still
don't think we saw quite all of his rushing potential
last year. And I know Debro just said he was
okay with the projection on rushing yardage. I think if
he makes sixteen starts or seventeen, he is going to
(12:31):
go for seven hundred rushing yards. And I feel pretty
confident about that. Like, he is an aggressive runner if
you watched him in North Carolina, like he really like
seeks it out if he doesn't have an open receiver.
Speaker 2 (12:44):
So it's one of the things I liked about him,
and the consolation prize of not getting Jaden Daniels is like, hey,
we're sill getting a mobile quarterback who's got a good
arm and you know he's got a little gunslinger mentality
in him. All right, let's talk about another guy here
on the list. Debro, you're a little afraid of Tyreek Kill,
and I have to say I'm with you. I do
not know what to do with this guy between the
off the field issues, between the on the field situation
(13:06):
where at this stage, you got to imagine at thirty
one years old, he starts to lose just a little
of that speed. The injuries last year an enormous drop
off year over year two just for him. Now, obviously
injuries had a big part to do with that, but
when you go from being wide receiver three, wide receiver
two and then dropping off to wide receiver twenty three,
that that's a fantasy killer. So Tyreek Hill is a
player that I think a lot of us are unsure
(13:28):
what to do with. Some of us want to draft
him just at a certain ADP, just to price and
force just in case. What are the projections screaming out
to you?
Speaker 1 (13:38):
I mean, dude, it's they're right in line where his
ADP and his ECR like right now he's wide receiver
fourteen and projections he's wide receiver fifteen and ADP and
wide receiver fourteen and ECR. That scares the crap out
of me because I'm blow consensus about that, because that's
what he didn't produces this mid to high end wide
receiver two. Like with two of last year, he was
wide receiver twenty four and he was outside the time
(14:00):
in that stretch. So weeks eight through sixteen with two
a back wide receiver twenty four and outside the top
thirty wide receivers of both target chair and yards per
route run. Like this projection scares me because I feel
like the entire consensus is like Tyreek Hill is going
to keep homin along and it's like we didn't see
that last year.
Speaker 4 (14:20):
What's to make you think that this happens this year?
Even if everything like magically works out perfectly, Like I
fail to find the ceiling in where he beats this
projection or even meets it. Based off of how the
Dolphins look this year, their offensive line isn't any better.
The questions around Tua and the injury concerned getting the
(14:42):
ball out quick and that nuking Tyreek Hill, which we
saw last year, what out of any of that that
we think is going to change or improve in twenty
twenty five.
Speaker 1 (14:51):
So this projection and where we are where the consensus
is on Tyrek Hill scares the Bejesus out of me
because I can't see him paying all on this.
Speaker 2 (15:01):
Well, Fitz, that's the thing though. I mean it is
wide receiver fifteen right now, right in the ADP. The
ECR is right around there, wide receiver sixteen. So you're
getting a player who at his best is one, two
or three. Right That's a league winner kind of thing.
I think that's hard to shake people, especially when it's
(15:21):
a name player like Tyreek Hill that they're so comfortable
with drafting year over year and being elite and being great.
He's coming off a year where he wasn't. There's enough
of a discount here to the projections tell you that
there's enough of a discount to get you excited about
drafting him or you scared because of what you saw
last season and maybe what you didn't see this offseason
ot the Dolphins to make it better.
Speaker 3 (15:40):
Yeah, it's a discount for sure. We're certainly not paying
the price we were paying for the guy who went
for seventeen hundred yards two straight years. But yeah, I'm
kind of with Debro here, like we'll probably get some
sort of bounce back from Tyreek if he stays healthy
for most of the season, but like, I'm just not
sure we're getting the eighty eight catch eleven hundred yard
(16:03):
season the projections are forecasting. I think maybe the brightest
ray of hope for Tyreek Hill is that to a
everage like he averaged a career low five point seven
intended air yards per attempt last year to a did
and in twenty twenty three was at seven point seven
intended air yards per attempt, a full two yards more
(16:25):
per attempt than last season. In twenty twenty two he
was at nine point five. So if Tua Stay's healthy
and Mike McDaniel doesn't need to install a to a
tongue of I loo a preservation plan, maybe Tyreek goes
back to being the cheetah. But if we're seeing more
of what we saw last year, with everything being a
dump off to a chan or a short little pass
(16:46):
to John new Smith, and the receivers are are you know,
in dry dock like they were last year, then yeah,
he's not going to hit these projections.
Speaker 2 (16:55):
But don't you think that was out of necessity because
the offensive line was so bad last year you had
to get rid of football. And I just don't know
if they've made enough improvements this year that that changes
its stripes.
Speaker 3 (17:04):
That's it, right, Like, still one of the worst offensive
lines in the league.
Speaker 2 (17:07):
See that, And I think that's exactly where I'm at.
And I think we come back to that fact when
you're talking about Tyreek Hill. It's like, Okay, you can say, okay,
he's healthy, now, everything's good. You can look at all
the bright side of all these things, but the one
just fact staring in the face, and that offensive line
did not improve enough, nearly enough, and we find ourselves
in that same scenario as we did in twenty twenty four.
I think we're looking more like the guy we got
(17:28):
in Tyreek in twenty twenty four than the guy we
got in twenty twenty three. Good conversations here. I want
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Speaker 2 (18:43):
All right, let's get to another guy on our list.
Here for the projections that scare us. Pep fitz Morris,
You've got a fellow named Karen Williams on your list.
What are you scared about when it comes to Karen Williams?
What more does this man have to do for you?
Speaker 3 (18:58):
Yeah? I know, Joe. The projections just make me uneasy.
Kyron has finished RB two and RB eights in half
point PPR Fantasy points per game the last two seasons.
Last year, he had three hundred and sixteen carries in
sixteen games. The only running backs with more carries than
Kyrien Williams in twenty twenty four were Saquon Barkley and
(19:19):
Derrick Henry. Now, Kyrone is being projected for two hundred
and seventy eight carries this season, fewer than last year,
but still a pretty halfty total, fifth most of any
running back in the projections.
Speaker 1 (19:31):
Now.
Speaker 3 (19:32):
In terms of efficiency, Kyrone was solid last year. Not great.
Four point one yards per carry after being at five
point zero the year before. He was around two point
seven or two point eight yards after contact per carry.
Decent number, but I don't know. It hasn't always been
easy to peg Sean mcvay's backfields. Like ask someone who
(19:53):
invested in cam Akers like I did a few years ago,
earned by it, and now the Rams like keep heading
to their backfield. They drafted Blake Korm in the third
round last year, they drafted Jarquibs Hunter in the fourth
round this year. I just worry that Kyen might not
be a locked in workhorse, but the projections are very
confident that he's going to be exactly that.
Speaker 2 (20:14):
Well, when it was Todd Gurley, it was pretty easy
to remember where the ball was going. Yeah, for at
least two years, it was pretty easy. I think we
have a blind spot debro as the fantasy football community.
Sometimes when a player emerges out of thin arrow most
where people just never believe, and then he does it,
and then they don't want to buy in the second
time and he does it again, that they sometimes have
(20:36):
a hard time coming around and finding their soul of saying, well,
maybe I was just off, maybe I missed this, And
I feel like a fantasy community at large kind of
missed Kien Williams coming, and that's fair. There were a
lot of reasons to fade him. But after these two years,
I keep struggling with why we're fading him. I know
why fits is he makes good arguments. Are you want
(20:58):
making those same arguments when it comes to Karen Williams
at his adp or at his projection?
Speaker 1 (21:03):
I am yeah, And I would be very clear about this.
I was not fading Kiren last year. I was not
worried about Blake Koram. I was much lower than consensus
on Blake Koram as a prospect. As a player. There
was a ton of red flags on Blake Koram's prospect profile.
When you want to talk about his All twenty two
and what he showed on tape, his ability is explosiveness
(21:23):
and how much of that was rob because of all
the injuries If you watched twenty twenty two versus twenty
twenty four, also discussing a player that every single year
in college his tackle breaking metrics and efficiency dropped, those
are not all signals of a talented player that we
need to really be worried about. So I was in
on Kiren last year, but I am out this year.
And a lot of this comes down to I think
(21:46):
we're staring at the same thing that I was discussing
last year with Rashad White as an inefficient volume runner
and when if there's not a talented enough running back
in that room to take away the volume, than the
inefficient volume hog continues on volume hogging and then we're
good to go. But when a talented runner and an
(22:08):
explosive runner enters the room in Jarquest Hunter this year,
I think there should and there are concerns for Kyen
Williams now again we talked about I think that people
are putting a lot of respect on Kyen's name in
ranking him as an RB one where they're at there's
not a lot of people that have him below that.
The projections are doing the same, and all this scares
(22:30):
the ever living crap out of me because I'm just like, dude,
like I don't want people drafting him because all of
this is volume stranglehold based. It's not because of the efficiency.
And if that volume stranglehold goes away or gets diminished,
then Kiren is not going to be an RB one.
He's going to be an RB two. Because even the
narrative is wrong on Kien, and we've had the narrative wrong,
(22:52):
Like whether we could talk about Okay, he's handled a
lot more volume for his size than anybody ever expected
coming into the NFL. All of the narratives about him
being this a lot as pass catcher in the pass
catching upside, none of that has come to fruition. He's
been one of the most inefficient guys in the passing game.
He doesn't get a lot of receptions, like even we're
projecting him for thirty five receptions. I have no problems
(23:12):
with that. But if he loses time, that can also
go down. Stafford's not checking it down, Kiren's not checking passes.
So if he doesn't continue this absolute stranglehold on the
volume and this backfield, people are drafting him as an
RB one, he easily could be an RB two in
this offense if either Koram or I think jarqust Hunter
(23:34):
is going to make a dent in that volume.
Speaker 2 (23:36):
I feel personally attacked by the rashad why comment because
I had so many cares in last year and I
just did not see you and ericson the entire time.
And I didn't see Bucky Irving coming like I just
did not. I didn't, or at least not that quickly.
So there you go. Oh he can do all right.
One more name on both the lists here, Debro, Let's
go back to you for a moment. Here xavier' Worthy
next on your list is another one too, where I
(23:58):
think a lot of us are kind of looking at
that and saying, all right, what we saw at the
end of last year is fine. It was encouraging, but
we don't know what it looks like when Rushie Rice
is back. I think that's where I struggle. So that
being said, how do you look at these projections and
tell us why Xavier Worthy might scare you and some
others off in twenty twenty five.
Speaker 1 (24:17):
I mean, we are projecting. Not only do we have
Xavier Worthy right now in PPR projections as the wide
receiver twenty, we have or She Rice above him. He
is the nineteen eighteen seventy six, He's wide receiver sixteen.
Speaker 2 (24:29):
I'm I'm just grateful that he was not more than twenty,
because hey, after that, I don't know.
Speaker 1 (24:33):
Well, he's closed. I kind of lie.
Speaker 2 (24:35):
Derek's already got the gloves off, He's got the shoes off.
God only help us. Thank good he was under twenty.
Speaker 3 (24:40):
I think it.
Speaker 1 (24:41):
I'm just happy it was inside of one outside of
that once you get past twenty, I don't even know
what to do. But with Exavier Worthy, Yeah, man, Like
we're we're projecting that Patrick Mahomes is going to support
two top twenty wide receivers and Travis Kelce obviously is
a tight end one this year. And I'm not saying
that Patrick Mahomes can't do that theoretically, but the version
(25:03):
of Patrick Mahomes that we've seen of the last two
years has been absolutely god awful throwing deep down the field.
And that's what I think Xavier Worthy's role was going
to be in this offense. So can Mahomes improves a
deep pass, for sure, We've seen him be awesome in that,
But over the last two years, is that more of
who he is going forward being bottom ten and every
single accuracy metric twenty yards or further down the field.
(25:27):
If that's who he is, then Xavier Worthy is going
to fall on his face. He's not going to produce
at this level that projections have him at because he
didn't even do that last year in that same role.
And I know we highlighted this our conversation with Matt Harmon,
but I'm gonna mention this here again. Exavier Worthy of
the back half of last year was producing in the
Rashi Rerice role like his A dot drop from twelve
(25:50):
point one to six point three is design target rate,
doubled his fantasy points. Because I hate to tell people,
but in weeks one through twelve, when you were all
so frustrated with the exacer war, he was the wide
receiver fifty one and fantasy points per game as the
field stretching element in this offense. If he goes back
into that role and Mahomes is still one of the
worst deep all passes in the NFL, he's not going
(26:13):
to come close to paying all this projection, not even
close nowhere.
Speaker 2 (26:17):
We had a really good breakdown with Matt Harmon. If
you missed it, The reception Perception Fell himself was on
earlier this week. Dee Brow and I sat down with him.
We went over some great wide receiver stuff. Go watch
on the YouTube channel. That's an important show you need
to watch. We're playing fantasy this year, FITZI real quick
your take on Xavier Worthy of news projections.
Speaker 3 (26:35):
I mean, it's possible he could hit these receiving projections
sixty nine catches, eight hundred and seventy six yards eight touchdowns.
You know, I do have some of the same reservations
deebro has. But then you consider, like the rushing projections
for Worthy are pretty aggressive one hundred and eighteen yards
and two point seven touchdowns. Like I'm not counting on
two or three touchdown runs for Xavier Worthy. So if
(26:57):
we're building in some of his value based on that,
it's kind of a rickety platform to build value on.
Speaker 1 (27:06):
All right, I was gonna say, bring up the same thing,
FITZI like that that rushing projection is just a tap bit.
Speaker 2 (27:12):
Spicy it is. It is, all right, FITZI. I mentioned earlier,
My I don't know I'll get in run over by
Rashad White last year via Bucky Irving, and he's on
your list this year. So is Karma coming back around?
Speaker 1 (27:26):
Yeah?
Speaker 3 (27:26):
Maybe, I mean I don't think he is going to.
You know, Bucky Irving's not going to lose his job
back to Rashad White. Like Rashad White lost that job.
Bucky took over the lead backs and Tampa down the stretch,
and yeah, Rashad was in a pure backup rowl. I
don't think there's any chance the pendulum swings back towards
Rashad White barring injury, but I don't know. I've Bucky
(27:49):
ranked RB seven in half point PPR. The projections have
him an RB eleven. What scares me is that I
don't really have much of a beef with the projections
like they have Bucky with two hundred and thirty four
care He's a little over eleven hundred rushing yards, eight
TD runs, forty three and a half receptions for three
hundred and forty nine yards, and one point eight touchdown catches.
(28:09):
That's all pretty reasonable for Bucky's workload, and those rushing
numbers actually get Bucky credit for being an efficient runner.
They have him projected for four point eight six yards
per carry. Yeah, he was at five point four last year,
but like, that's gonna be really hard to sustain. I
was blown away by how good Buck he was last year,
and I guess the reason, Yeah, I just I'm scared
(28:33):
by projections that I find reasonable that have him less
valuable than I think he is. And you know, like
I thought he was a pretty solid option in the
latter part of the second round of twenty twenty five drafts.
I know a lot of people think he's more of
a third or fourth rounder, and the projection seem to agree.
Speaker 1 (28:50):
With the people in the third round fourth round camp.
Speaker 2 (28:54):
Well, you've heard all the scary stories now about Chase Brown,
Tyreek Hills. You're worthy, Drake May, Karen Williams, and Bucky Irving.
But we like to hear from you all those guys
somebody else who scares you in twenty twenty five. Drop
your comments below in the YouTube channel. You might win
yourself with George Pickens Autograph Jersey just for commenting and interacting.
(29:14):
So there's a lot of players you could be scared about. Also,
don't miss our players to be excited about, because we're
not gonna live in fear. We're just not gonna do
that here on the channel. Subscribe to the Fantasy Pros
YouTube channel. Drop your comments below again, and of course
we'll see you soon. That'll do it for us, but
the story of the game goes on for Debro and
Pat Fitzmorris. I'm Joey P. We'll see you next time.
Speaker 1 (29:35):
Kids.
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Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football podcast.
If you love the show, the best free way to
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Welcome in everybody to Fantasy Pros.
Speaker 2 (00:02):
This is the Fantasy Football Podcast. It is me Joey
p Joe Pi Zapia, and today we're going to talk
about the projections that scare us. That's right, it's time
to hide under the covers because there's some guys where
the projections this year might not be as good as
they are perceived. And of course there's nobody better to
help us figure out who those players might be. And
(00:23):
of course Debro Derek Brown, the King of Bros. The
man who gets sunburned in the shade. And Pat Fitzmorris,
just fresh off of golf outing who I believe his
handicap is. What do you like a three handicap right now? FITZI,
you're just spectacular like a thirty. Oh I forgot the
other three. I always forget the other three when it
comes to you. But the boys are here and we
(00:44):
are locked in again. The projections you can find right
now that we're basing this show off or there at
fantasypros dot com slash projections. That's the place you can
find all the ones we're going through today. And as
we go through, some of the big names here on
this list that might scare the crap out of us
in twenty twenty five. We want you to be with
us for all of the twenty twenty five season, so
(01:05):
drop your comments below, subscribe to the Fantasy Bros. YouTube channel.
We're trying to get to three hundred thousand this year,
and we could do it with your help. And in
the meantime, if you do both of those things, you
are getting a chance to win the George Pickens autograph
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(01:25):
subscriber or the channel who comments on this or any video.
Make sure you like the videos and ring the bell
to letos ding for notifications so you never miss a
piece of content here on the channel. All right, gentlemen,
let's get after it. Let's start with some of the
names on our list that scare us in twenty twenty five.
From a projection standpoint, debro, let's start with a running
back on your list.
Speaker 1 (01:45):
It's Chase Brown. Talk to me, dude. I was kind
of surprised and going through this looking at just projections
and talking about media outcomes. I was shocked that we
and our projections have Chase Brown as RB seven teen
right now. So if that comes to fruition, yes, we
all need to be scared because we are drafting him
(02:07):
in early best balls and ranking him as an RB one,
and I understand what we're doing it. He was the
RB four in Fantasy points per game last year, averaging
almost one hundred and seventeen total yards when he was
the starter. So for me, like I've had a little
bit of worries about Chase Brown because during that stretch
it was all volume. He was awesome, he was Cincinnati CMC.
(02:28):
The per touch efficiency is a little more concerning for
me as a player who for all the big play
potential we saw in college, the speed that wasn't there.
I mean, this guy was outside the top twenty four
running backs and explosive run rate, misstackles force per attempt,
and yards of to contact per attempt. So I've had
my worries about Chase Brown. Although I've been pretty much
in line with consensus on ranking this RB seventeen projection
(02:52):
scares the crap out of me. Man, Like, if that's
where he goes he's gonna be a big bust this
coming year because people are expecting RB one production if
they are rafting Chase Brown.
Speaker 2 (03:01):
Yeah, it is a little bit of a peculiar one,
especially when you consider what's around that backfield, Zach Moss
and Smagi p Ryan. I don't think those guys are
really terrifying Pat. Since Debro brings it up, he makes
a good point. You're looking at the ADP of Chase
Brown at twelve RB overall you got ec RT fourteen,
so there's a lot of fallout potentially if he falls backwards.
(03:22):
Do you think the projections are based off of how
bad that defense is and how many negative game scripts
are in where they have to throw the ball, because again,
the defense of Cincinnati isn't very good and it is
a throw first kind of offense with Joe Burrow and
those receivers.
Speaker 3 (03:36):
Yeah, I mean, I think it's the lack of volume
that are holding down his projections a little bit. So
last year from November on, Chase Brown averaged eighteen point
nine carries four point eight catches a game. Now, I
don't expect him to average twenty three point six touches
a game like he did over the second half of
last season. But I do think Chase Brown is still
(03:58):
pretty safely going to be the lead back in one
of the best offenses in the league. And sure, someone
is probably going to emerge as a tag team partner
for Chase Brown, but like who won this Bengals roster
could threaten Chase Brown's primacy in this backfield. Like Taj Brooks,
I like him, but he's not better than Chase Brown,
(04:18):
Zach Moss, Samaj p ry No, and our projections have
Chase Brown at something like fifteen or sixteen touches a game.
They have him at under two hundred carries for the season.
I think they're probably a little light there, so I've
Chased Brown at RB eleven in my rankings. Like, I know,
we're probably not going to see huge weekly workloads for
(04:40):
Chase Brown again this year, so I maybe agree with
the projections on that, but I do think we'll get
significant workloads and still the attractive weekly ceilings in a
high flying offense. And you know, I'm not too worried
about the like I know in college, kind of a
different story there because he was runningt ground by Brad
(05:01):
Bielman in his last college season at Illinois, like averaged
over twenty carries a game, so he was running up
against stack boxes all the time. He is never going
to get run against a stack box in Cincinnati with
Joe Burrow at quarterback. It's just not going to happen.
So I think we can kind of count on the
efficiency staying h Yeah, I would agree. I mean, look,
(05:23):
I think all three of us, like Chase Brown, I
think we should all be a little concerned that the
projections are a little on the lower side. But in
those PPR leagues too, he was very consistent in the
last about eight games of the season, really seeing steady
target volume two. So that's a plus in his game
as well, and he seemed to handle the workload as
he got deep into the season. Two he had games
where he had twenty five carries, eighteen carries, twenty carries
(05:44):
to kind of finish out the year when they got hot, right,
and that offense really didn't start clicking until the second
half of the season anyway, it was too little, too
late for the Bengals unfortunately. FITZI, let's see if we
can switch gears here and talk about a player who's
projections right now scare you just a tad. Yeah, let's
talk about May, who I am really into this year.
And the reason I am is that we know rushing
(06:05):
ability is a cheat code for quarterbacks. But most of
the qbs who provide substantial rushing value are really expensive
in fantasy drafts, or will be once the twenty twenty
five draft season kicks off. Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts,
Jadeen Daniels. But you can turn a big profit if
(06:26):
you can find a quarterback who provides prolific rushing value
but isn't very expensive, and I think Drake May can
be that guy. May started twelve games as a rookie,
but if we exclude Week eighteen, when he only played
three snaps before he was pulled, May average four point
nine carries and thirty eight point three rushing yards over
(06:46):
a full season. That would project to six hundred and
fifty one rushing yards. And I think May could actually
do better than that. As a sophomore in North Carolina,
he had six hundred and ninety eight rushing yards. And
remember that college quarterbacks have sacked carriage deducted from their
rushing yardage, So yeah, May lost about two hundred yards
in sacks that year, so he was really closer to
(07:07):
eight hundred and fifty rushing yards in only fourteen games. Also,
Drake May had two touchdown runs last season and his
two college seasons as a starter sixteen TV runs in
twenty six games. So the projections have Drake May QB
twenty in fantasy scoring. That's the scary part. I have
May at QB nine, so big alarming gap there, although
(07:30):
I certainly won't feel compelled to actually draft Mays the
QB nine if I know I can get him somewhere
in the teams, but it is a little scary that
May comes in as a mid range to low end
QB two in the projections. I don't even have a
big beef with the passing projections for him, which are
about thirty three hundred yards twenty one TD passes, but
(07:50):
I do think the rushing projections for May are a
little light five hundred and thirty eight yards two point
six TD runs. I'll pretty confidently bet the over on
those numbers.
Speaker 2 (08:00):
Now. I'm also high on Drake May this year, and
those projections for me, again doing all the quarterback right
ups in the Black Book and going through where I
like him in super Flex. He's a tremendous value and
target of mine this year in super Flex drafts because
of that rushing equity. He's projected in our system right
now for five hundred and thirty six rushing yards. That
does feel light to me, Debro, Are you a fitsie
(08:20):
and I are on this point in Drake May, like
you can speculate where the touchdown totals are going to
lie and where this offense might be. It can only
be better than last year. I think we all know that.
How much better that's a big question, But we're talking
about the baseline of fantasy points. The rushing equity matters
a ton, and Drake May's playmaking ability was already on display,
and those two things make him really intriguing to both
(08:43):
of us. How about to you, are you a little
afraid of these projections being a little lower than maybe
we are on Drake May this season.
Speaker 1 (08:50):
I'm actually in line with these projections, Like right now,
I've got Drake May as my QB twenty I think,
And this isn't so much the hate on May, I
like May do. It just comes down until there's a
lot of quarterbacks in that QB two film that I
like more than Drake May. And it's not just the
I mean because honestly his rushing, like his rushing projection
is nice here. I mean like tenth in attempts, eighth
(09:12):
and rushing yards like I don't I don't see May
as a guy that I think he's gonna go out
and rush for like seven eight hundred yards, So sticking
him in that mid five category. Maybe the rushing touchdowns
are light, but we don't know what New England's gonna
do with the goal line and it could be just
Romandre Stevenson says in every single time they get inside
the fire of the ten. So I guess my worry
(09:35):
And it comes back to these projections for Drake May
this year and why I'm lower than you guys are
is because of the passing, like if if the volume
isn't there. Because I think we can all agree New
England Patriots their defense is going to be much improved,
if not really stinking good this year. Yes, and so
are we going to see Josh McDaniels airing the ball out?
(09:56):
Are they gonna play more conservative? But they're gonna go
run heavy? Is Mike Rabel Al's gonna have a saying
what this offense looks like versus passing volume and rushing
volume and how that all plays out in game script,
because Joe, I mean, you've you've made the case on
here before that the Patriots betting the over on their
win totals. Okay, Well, if that's the case, it's probably
not related to what's fueling them winning games, which could
(10:18):
be a lot of ugly games. That's probably not gonna
be related to their high flying offense led by Vermandre
Stevenson and Hire Williams and Sell Dicks.
Speaker 2 (10:27):
Patriot football wasn't always pretty. I mean, it was the
defense running the football and Tom Brady, you know, being
Tom Brady in the big moments for some of those
tougher games.
Speaker 1 (10:35):
But but that goes back to it's probably not They're
not outscoring teams by probably not every single week. No,
so those wins are gonna be game script's gonna look bad,
and that is that going to depress some of Drake
May's numbers, especially in the passing department. So I don't
have a problem with the projection. I think I can
kind of quibble about, like, Okay, if I bump them up,
you know, two or three rushing touchdowns based off of
(10:58):
where we have him, because I do think it's kind
of light to give him only two point six rushing touchdowns.
Speaker 2 (11:03):
Yeah, that seems light to me too. I think it's
more like four or.
Speaker 1 (11:05):
Five easily, so can like and the other thing I'll
point out with when we're doing these projections, if you
give him those two or three rushing touchdowns, like right
now in our projections, he's got two hundred and six
or two sixty three fantasy points. If we were to
give him even two more rushing touchdowns, you're talking about
vaulting him up like five six spots. So he's at
(11:27):
QB fourteen if we give him three or more rushing touchdowns.
So that's honestly, if we're gonna qibble about the projection,
I think it's the rushing touchdown total, and that could
vault him up into that you know, fringe maybe just
outside QB one territory.
Speaker 2 (11:41):
I think what's so interesting for me, FITZI, just real
quick going back to you for a second, is when
you look at the projections on the total points, May
is behind. We're basically tied with Stafford and JJ McCarthy,
And I find that kind of odd because personally, as
much as I really like McCarthy this year, in the
situation he's in, I just feel a little bit more
confident that May is. I've seen enough of May where
(12:01):
I'm like, Okay, he gets it, he's in there. I
think he's ready to go. He's got a much better
set of surroundings. You have him at nine, so clearly
you would agree with that fact too. Like him McCarthy
are not close.
Speaker 3 (12:11):
For you, Yeah, they played capably in the worst possible
circumstances bad offensive pass catchers. Yeah, And like, I still
don't think we saw quite all of his rushing potential
last year. And I know Debro just said he was
okay with the projection on rushing yardage. I think if
he makes sixteen starts or seventeen, he is going to
(12:31):
go for seven hundred rushing yards. And I feel pretty
confident about that. Like, he is an aggressive runner if
you watched him in North Carolina, like he really like
seeks it out if he doesn't have an open receiver.
Speaker 2 (12:44):
So it's one of the things I liked about him,
and the consolation prize of not getting Jaden Daniels is like, hey,
we're sill getting a mobile quarterback who's got a good
arm and you know he's got a little gunslinger mentality
in him. All right, let's talk about another guy here
on the list. Debro, you're a little afraid of Tyreek Kill,
and I have to say I'm with you. I do
not know what to do with this guy between the
off the field issues, between the on the field situation
(13:06):
where at this stage, you got to imagine at thirty
one years old, he starts to lose just a little
of that speed. The injuries last year an enormous drop
off year over year two just for him. Now, obviously
injuries had a big part to do with that, but
when you go from being wide receiver three, wide receiver
two and then dropping off to wide receiver twenty three,
that that's a fantasy killer. So Tyreek Hill is a
player that I think a lot of us are unsure
(13:28):
what to do with. Some of us want to draft
him just at a certain ADP, just to price and
force just in case. What are the projections screaming out
to you?
Speaker 1 (13:38):
I mean, dude, it's they're right in line where his
ADP and his ECR like right now he's wide receiver
fourteen and projections he's wide receiver fifteen and ADP and
wide receiver fourteen and ECR. That scares the crap out
of me because I'm blow consensus about that, because that's
what he didn't produces this mid to high end wide
receiver two. Like with two of last year, he was
wide receiver twenty four and he was outside the time
(14:00):
in that stretch. So weeks eight through sixteen with two
a back wide receiver twenty four and outside the top
thirty wide receivers of both target chair and yards per
route run. Like this projection scares me because I feel
like the entire consensus is like Tyreek Hill is going
to keep homin along and it's like we didn't see
that last year.
Speaker 4 (14:20):
What's to make you think that this happens this year?
Even if everything like magically works out perfectly, Like I
fail to find the ceiling in where he beats this
projection or even meets it. Based off of how the
Dolphins look this year, their offensive line isn't any better.
The questions around Tua and the injury concerned getting the
(14:42):
ball out quick and that nuking Tyreek Hill, which we
saw last year, what out of any of that that
we think is going to change or improve in twenty
twenty five.
Speaker 1 (14:51):
So this projection and where we are where the consensus
is on Tyrek Hill scares the Bejesus out of me
because I can't see him paying all on this.
Speaker 2 (15:01):
Well, Fitz, that's the thing though. I mean it is
wide receiver fifteen right now, right in the ADP. The
ECR is right around there, wide receiver sixteen. So you're
getting a player who at his best is one, two
or three. Right That's a league winner kind of thing.
I think that's hard to shake people, especially when it's
(15:21):
a name player like Tyreek Hill that they're so comfortable
with drafting year over year and being elite and being great.
He's coming off a year where he wasn't. There's enough
of a discount here to the projections tell you that
there's enough of a discount to get you excited about
drafting him or you scared because of what you saw
last season and maybe what you didn't see this offseason
ot the Dolphins to make it better.
Speaker 3 (15:40):
Yeah, it's a discount for sure. We're certainly not paying
the price we were paying for the guy who went
for seventeen hundred yards two straight years. But yeah, I'm
kind of with Debro here, like we'll probably get some
sort of bounce back from Tyreek if he stays healthy
for most of the season, but like, I'm just not
sure we're getting the eighty eight catch eleven hundred yard
(16:03):
season the projections are forecasting. I think maybe the brightest
ray of hope for Tyreek Hill is that to a
everage like he averaged a career low five point seven
intended air yards per attempt last year to a did
and in twenty twenty three was at seven point seven
intended air yards per attempt, a full two yards more
(16:25):
per attempt than last season. In twenty twenty two he
was at nine point five. So if Tua Stay's healthy
and Mike McDaniel doesn't need to install a to a
tongue of I loo a preservation plan, maybe Tyreek goes
back to being the cheetah. But if we're seeing more
of what we saw last year, with everything being a
dump off to a chan or a short little pass
(16:46):
to John new Smith, and the receivers are are you know,
in dry dock like they were last year, then yeah,
he's not going to hit these projections.
Speaker 2 (16:55):
But don't you think that was out of necessity because
the offensive line was so bad last year you had
to get rid of football. And I just don't know
if they've made enough improvements this year that that changes
its stripes.
Speaker 3 (17:04):
That's it, right, Like, still one of the worst offensive
lines in the league.
Speaker 2 (17:07):
See that, And I think that's exactly where I'm at.
And I think we come back to that fact when
you're talking about Tyreek Hill. It's like, Okay, you can say, okay,
he's healthy, now, everything's good. You can look at all
the bright side of all these things, but the one
just fact staring in the face, and that offensive line
did not improve enough, nearly enough, and we find ourselves
in that same scenario as we did in twenty twenty four.
I think we're looking more like the guy we got
(17:28):
in Tyreek in twenty twenty four than the guy we
got in twenty twenty three. Good conversations here. I want
to keep the conversations going, But for a second, I
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Speaker 2 (18:43):
All right, let's get to another guy on our list.
Here for the projections that scare us. Pep fitz Morris,
You've got a fellow named Karen Williams on your list.
What are you scared about when it comes to Karen Williams?
What more does this man have to do for you?
Speaker 3 (18:58):
Yeah? I know, Joe. The projections just make me uneasy.
Kyron has finished RB two and RB eights in half
point PPR Fantasy points per game the last two seasons.
Last year, he had three hundred and sixteen carries in
sixteen games. The only running backs with more carries than
Kyrien Williams in twenty twenty four were Saquon Barkley and
(19:19):
Derrick Henry. Now, Kyrone is being projected for two hundred
and seventy eight carries this season, fewer than last year,
but still a pretty halfty total, fifth most of any
running back in the projections.
Speaker 1 (19:31):
Now.
Speaker 3 (19:32):
In terms of efficiency, Kyrone was solid last year. Not great.
Four point one yards per carry after being at five
point zero the year before. He was around two point
seven or two point eight yards after contact per carry.
Decent number, but I don't know. It hasn't always been
easy to peg Sean mcvay's backfields. Like ask someone who
(19:53):
invested in cam Akers like I did a few years ago,
earned by it, and now the Rams like keep heading
to their backfield. They drafted Blake Korm in the third
round last year, they drafted Jarquibs Hunter in the fourth
round this year. I just worry that Kyen might not
be a locked in workhorse, but the projections are very
confident that he's going to be exactly that.
Speaker 2 (20:14):
Well, when it was Todd Gurley, it was pretty easy
to remember where the ball was going. Yeah, for at
least two years, it was pretty easy. I think we
have a blind spot debro as the fantasy football community.
Sometimes when a player emerges out of thin arrow most
where people just never believe, and then he does it,
and then they don't want to buy in the second
time and he does it again, that they sometimes have
(20:36):
a hard time coming around and finding their soul of saying, well,
maybe I was just off, maybe I missed this, And
I feel like a fantasy community at large kind of
missed Kien Williams coming, and that's fair. There were a
lot of reasons to fade him. But after these two years,
I keep struggling with why we're fading him. I know
why fits is he makes good arguments. Are you want
(20:58):
making those same arguments when it comes to Karen Williams
at his adp or at his projection?
Speaker 1 (21:03):
I am yeah, And I would be very clear about this.
I was not fading Kiren last year. I was not
worried about Blake Koram. I was much lower than consensus
on Blake Koram as a prospect. As a player. There
was a ton of red flags on Blake Koram's prospect profile.
When you want to talk about his All twenty two
and what he showed on tape, his ability is explosiveness
(21:23):
and how much of that was rob because of all
the injuries If you watched twenty twenty two versus twenty
twenty four, also discussing a player that every single year
in college his tackle breaking metrics and efficiency dropped, those
are not all signals of a talented player that we
need to really be worried about. So I was in
on Kiren last year, but I am out this year.
And a lot of this comes down to I think
(21:46):
we're staring at the same thing that I was discussing
last year with Rashad White as an inefficient volume runner
and when if there's not a talented enough running back
in that room to take away the volume, than the
inefficient volume hog continues on volume hogging and then we're
good to go. But when a talented runner and an
(22:08):
explosive runner enters the room in Jarquest Hunter this year,
I think there should and there are concerns for Kyen
Williams now again we talked about I think that people
are putting a lot of respect on Kyen's name in
ranking him as an RB one where they're at there's
not a lot of people that have him below that.
The projections are doing the same, and all this scares
(22:30):
the ever living crap out of me because I'm just like, dude,
like I don't want people drafting him because all of
this is volume stranglehold based. It's not because of the efficiency.
And if that volume stranglehold goes away or gets diminished,
then Kiren is not going to be an RB one.
He's going to be an RB two. Because even the
narrative is wrong on Kien, and we've had the narrative wrong,
(22:52):
Like whether we could talk about Okay, he's handled a
lot more volume for his size than anybody ever expected
coming into the NFL. All of the narratives about him
being this a lot as pass catcher in the pass
catching upside, none of that has come to fruition. He's
been one of the most inefficient guys in the passing game.
He doesn't get a lot of receptions, like even we're
projecting him for thirty five receptions. I have no problems
(23:12):
with that. But if he loses time, that can also
go down. Stafford's not checking it down, Kiren's not checking passes.
So if he doesn't continue this absolute stranglehold on the
volume and this backfield, people are drafting him as an
RB one, he easily could be an RB two in
this offense if either Koram or I think jarqust Hunter
(23:34):
is going to make a dent in that volume.
Speaker 2 (23:36):
I feel personally attacked by the rashad why comment because
I had so many cares in last year and I
just did not see you and ericson the entire time.
And I didn't see Bucky Irving coming like I just
did not. I didn't, or at least not that quickly.
So there you go. Oh he can do all right.
One more name on both the lists here, Debro, Let's
go back to you for a moment. Here xavier' Worthy
next on your list is another one too, where I
(23:58):
think a lot of us are kind of looking at
that and saying, all right, what we saw at the
end of last year is fine. It was encouraging, but
we don't know what it looks like when Rushie Rice
is back. I think that's where I struggle. So that
being said, how do you look at these projections and
tell us why Xavier Worthy might scare you and some
others off in twenty twenty five.
Speaker 1 (24:17):
I mean, we are projecting. Not only do we have
Xavier Worthy right now in PPR projections as the wide
receiver twenty, we have or She Rice above him. He
is the nineteen eighteen seventy six, He's wide receiver sixteen.
Speaker 2 (24:29):
I'm I'm just grateful that he was not more than twenty,
because hey, after that, I don't know.
Speaker 1 (24:33):
Well, he's closed. I kind of lie.
Speaker 2 (24:35):
Derek's already got the gloves off, He's got the shoes off.
God only help us. Thank good he was under twenty.
Speaker 3 (24:40):
I think it.
Speaker 1 (24:41):
I'm just happy it was inside of one outside of
that once you get past twenty, I don't even know
what to do. But with Exavier Worthy, Yeah, man, Like
we're we're projecting that Patrick Mahomes is going to support
two top twenty wide receivers and Travis Kelce obviously is
a tight end one this year. And I'm not saying
that Patrick Mahomes can't do that theoretically, but the version
(25:03):
of Patrick Mahomes that we've seen of the last two
years has been absolutely god awful throwing deep down the field.
And that's what I think Xavier Worthy's role was going
to be in this offense. So can Mahomes improves a
deep pass, for sure, We've seen him be awesome in that,
But over the last two years, is that more of
who he is going forward being bottom ten and every
single accuracy metric twenty yards or further down the field.
(25:27):
If that's who he is, then Xavier Worthy is going
to fall on his face. He's not going to produce
at this level that projections have him at because he
didn't even do that last year in that same role.
And I know we highlighted this our conversation with Matt Harmon,
but I'm gonna mention this here again. Exavier Worthy of
the back half of last year was producing in the
Rashi Rerice role like his A dot drop from twelve
(25:50):
point one to six point three is design target rate,
doubled his fantasy points. Because I hate to tell people,
but in weeks one through twelve, when you were all
so frustrated with the exacer war, he was the wide
receiver fifty one and fantasy points per game as the
field stretching element in this offense. If he goes back
into that role and Mahomes is still one of the
worst deep all passes in the NFL, he's not going
(26:13):
to come close to paying all this projection, not even
close nowhere.
Speaker 2 (26:17):
We had a really good breakdown with Matt Harmon. If
you missed it, The reception Perception Fell himself was on
earlier this week. Dee Brow and I sat down with him.
We went over some great wide receiver stuff. Go watch
on the YouTube channel. That's an important show you need
to watch. We're playing fantasy this year, FITZI real quick
your take on Xavier Worthy of news projections.
Speaker 3 (26:35):
I mean, it's possible he could hit these receiving projections
sixty nine catches, eight hundred and seventy six yards eight touchdowns.
You know, I do have some of the same reservations
deebro has. But then you consider, like the rushing projections
for Worthy are pretty aggressive one hundred and eighteen yards
and two point seven touchdowns. Like I'm not counting on
two or three touchdown runs for Xavier Worthy. So if
(26:57):
we're building in some of his value based on that,
it's kind of a rickety platform to build value on.
Speaker 1 (27:06):
All right, I was gonna say, bring up the same thing,
FITZI like that that rushing projection is just a tap bit.
Speaker 2 (27:12):
Spicy it is. It is, all right, FITZI. I mentioned earlier,
My I don't know I'll get in run over by
Rashad White last year via Bucky Irving, and he's on
your list this year. So is Karma coming back around?
Speaker 1 (27:26):
Yeah?
Speaker 3 (27:26):
Maybe, I mean I don't think he is going to.
You know, Bucky Irving's not going to lose his job
back to Rashad White. Like Rashad White lost that job.
Bucky took over the lead backs and Tampa down the stretch,
and yeah, Rashad was in a pure backup rowl. I
don't think there's any chance the pendulum swings back towards
Rashad White barring injury, but I don't know. I've Bucky
(27:49):
ranked RB seven in half point PPR. The projections have
him an RB eleven. What scares me is that I
don't really have much of a beef with the projections
like they have Bucky with two hundred and thirty four
care He's a little over eleven hundred rushing yards, eight
TD runs, forty three and a half receptions for three
hundred and forty nine yards, and one point eight touchdown catches.
(28:09):
That's all pretty reasonable for Bucky's workload, and those rushing
numbers actually get Bucky credit for being an efficient runner.
They have him projected for four point eight six yards
per carry. Yeah, he was at five point four last year,
but like, that's gonna be really hard to sustain. I
was blown away by how good Buck he was last year,
and I guess the reason, Yeah, I just I'm scared
(28:33):
by projections that I find reasonable that have him less
valuable than I think he is. And you know, like
I thought he was a pretty solid option in the
latter part of the second round of twenty twenty five drafts.
I know a lot of people think he's more of
a third or fourth rounder, and the projection seem to agree.
Speaker 1 (28:50):
With the people in the third round fourth round camp.
Speaker 2 (28:54):
Well, you've heard all the scary stories now about Chase Brown,
Tyreek Hills. You're worthy, Drake May, Karen Williams, and Bucky Irving.
But we like to hear from you all those guys
somebody else who scares you in twenty twenty five. Drop
your comments below in the YouTube channel. You might win
yourself with George Pickens Autograph Jersey just for commenting and interacting.
(29:14):
So there's a lot of players you could be scared about. Also,
don't miss our players to be excited about, because we're
not gonna live in fear. We're just not gonna do
that here on the channel. Subscribe to the Fantasy Pros
YouTube channel. Drop your comments below again, and of course
we'll see you soon. That'll do it for us, but
the story of the game goes on for Debro and
Pat Fitzmorris. I'm Joey P. We'll see you next time.
Speaker 1 (29:35):
Kids.
Speaker 6 (29:35):
Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football podcast.
If you love the show, the best free way to
support us is by leading a positive review on Apple
podcasts at Fantasypros dot com, Slash Review or on Spotify.
Speaker 1 (29:48):
Follow us on x
Speaker 6 (29:49):
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