Jason Timpf is joined by The Volume's Carson Breber and Logan Camden of 'Nerd Sesh' to break down four pressing questions ahead of the NBA Finals featuring Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets squaring off with Jimmy Butler and the Miami Heat. Will Miami slow down Nikola Jokic? What is the Heat's biggest advantage? Who has more to gain from winning a title: Jokic or Butler? And what are the guys' predictions for the series? #volume #herd
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
The Volume.
Speaker 2 (00:15):
All right, welcome to Hoops Tonight. Here at the Volume,
Happy Wednesday, everybody, Happy. NBA Finals EVE. Coverage of the
NBA Finals. Here at Hoops Tonight is brought to you
by Chase Freedom Unlimited. How do you cash back? We're
gonna prime for Game one, but bringing on the guys
from Nerd, Sesh, Logan and Carson Gonna come on. I
have a lot of interesting stuff that I dug up
during my NBA Finals preview on Tuesday morning, and so
(00:38):
we've got four questions from this series that we're gonna
dive into. I'm gonna start with the biggest problem. Is
there any chance that Miami can slow down Nikola Jokic.
So before I t this one up, we'll start with Logan.
Before I tear t this one up for you, I
have a crazy stat So in my film study Person Energy,
(01:00):
the Denver Nuggets posted up the Miami Heat thirty times
and they are two games this season and scored in
astonishing forty seven points on those thirty post ups, which
is over a point and a half per possession. Wasn't
just Jokic. There's a lot of Aaron Gordon beaten switches
as well. A little bit of Jamal Murray. But the
(01:22):
reality is is it's a Jokic problem because even when
I was watching them spam Aaron Gordon post ups on
Kyle Lowry, it was a lot of Nikola Jokic identifying
the mismatch, placing the off ball players where he wanted them,
and making that post entry pass from the left wing.
So my question for both of you guys start with logan,
is there any chance that Miami can slow down the
(01:43):
attack of the Denver Nuggets and Nikola Jokic.
Speaker 1 (01:47):
Yeah, you know, we answered this question on a NERD session.
I think if Eric Spolster or Jimmy Butler can find
like a rabbit foot or a four leaf clover, maybe,
or maybe they go and rub as many old lamps
as they can and can get a genie to pop
out with some wishes, I think they can get it done. No,
I don't think they really have a prayer at slowing
down Jokic. Jason, you mentioned those crazy post up numbers
(02:10):
to the Carson mentioned a crazy stat on our show.
The Nuggets have also been one of the best teams
against the zone point blank person energy too. I mean,
I don't really know personnel wise or schematically wise, what
the Heat can do to slow down this attack, right,
because I think a lot of people are gonna look
at this matchup and they're gonna go all bam Adebayo
is one of the best defenders on planet Earth. You
(02:30):
stick him one on one on Jokic, maybe they can
slow him down a little bit.
Speaker 3 (02:34):
It's just not that simple, man, you know.
Speaker 1 (02:35):
I look at the two man game with Jokich and Murray,
and that's what really causes problems is all the switches
that this Nuggets offense creates. The Heat don't have the
personnel to be really switchable. They don't have the personnel
to stick another guy on Jokic and have bam and
kind of that Rover off ball roll. The way the
Lakers were. I think the Lakers were the best defensive
matchup that we saw for Denver. In all of these
(02:57):
teams in the playoff field. They had a lot of big,
physical guys like Hatch, you like Van Do like a
d and that still didn't matter.
Speaker 3 (03:04):
The Lakers got swept.
Speaker 1 (03:05):
And I also agree with you guys, I think Ad
is the best defensive player on the planet Earth. So yeah,
I mean, short answer, I think it would take something spiritual.
I think it would take cosmic entity guys. I think
it will take something. I think it'll take a lot
of praying for the Miami Heat to slow down this offense.
I don't really think that they can do anything schematically
(03:26):
to slow them down.
Speaker 3 (03:27):
I just kind of think they're outmatched.
Speaker 1 (03:29):
I know that's a boring answer, but I think the
Nuggets have the most talented offense in the NBA, the
best offensive player who's just an unsolvable puzzle. Whatever you
throw at Yokic, he has an answer for you. You
can't throw him doubles, he will find an open shooter.
You can't put one guy on him because he's gonna
bully that matchup.
Speaker 3 (03:47):
So no, I think it's.
Speaker 1 (03:48):
Gonna take a lot of luck and maybe some some
lucky objects too for the Heat, man, I don't really
think they have an answer for the offense or Jokic.
Speaker 2 (03:56):
It's supposure to run out on the floor as a
six defenders what you can.
Speaker 4 (04:01):
It wouldn't hurt.
Speaker 5 (04:02):
But I also don't think that there's really an answer
in this series because I think the Niko Jokic is
effectively unstoppable offensively in this run He's thirty thirteen and
ten on sixty two percent true shooting. I believe in
the midst of one of the handful of highest offensive
peaks we've ever seen, because he is arguably the best
playmaker and scorer alive right now and has such a
(04:24):
tremendous versatility to the number of ways in which he
can kill you, and I just think you run down
the heat options one by one. Like Logan mentioned, you
try Bam on jokicen single coverage, I just think that's
a mismatch. Bam is an awesome defender, one of the
five best on the planet in my opinion, but his
primary defensive value is as a team defender, his immense switchability,
(04:48):
his IQ is value as a helper and rinp protector.
One on one defense, You're looking at a six to
nine guy with a seven to one wing span. He
is simply not big enough to affect Yokic in a
meaningful way, and by the way, nobody really has been.
I mean, we've seen him go up against massive elite
defensive players with tremendous length, Rudy Gobert in single coverage,
(05:08):
Anthony Davis in single coverage, and he cooked both those
guys so thoroughly that the best option for those teams became, Okay,
let's put another big, strong body on him, so then
we can have our best defenders and help. But I
also think, as Logan laid out, Miami is not particularly
well equipped to try that strategy with Bam as the roamer.
The guy who you probably have to look to there
(05:31):
as the primary Jokic post defender would be Kevin Love,
who has a big body, but not a very good
defender in bottom line still six ' eight, like Jokic
is just gonna give him work, a whole lot of it,
and he's averaged one point two points per post up
in this playoff run. That number holds true if he's
the one shooting or if he's the one passing. Nobody
(05:53):
can guard him in single coverage. He is too powerful.
He is too unstoppable as a skilled shot maker with
his turnarounds, with his hooks and his touch finishing, and
the playmaking is obviously unreal. We saw in that La
series the regularity with which, if somebody just dug in
that little bit, he was finding the open shooter and
creating consistently elite offense for his teammates. And then the
(06:15):
weapon for Miami this entire playoff run has been the zone.
We saw it give Boston fits in multiple games. We
saw it give New York fits. I do not think
it works against Denver. As Logan mentioned, the Nuggets were
a ninety third percentile offense against zone this year, almost
one point two points per possession. Just ridiculous. And Jokic
(06:37):
is so dominant facilitating from the middle of the floor,
and Denver is so good at moving to open space.
They have so many good cutters, and they have so
many lethal shooters who have demonstrated a level of consistency
there that really nobody in the league can match. You're
just not gonna rattle them. You're just not gonna throw
them out of their rhythm in the same way that
(06:58):
you're able to do to Boston, where maybe they're not
getting consistent penetration into the middle of that zone, or
they're settling for these sort of one pass, catch and
shoot looks that aren't great, or you're able to force
their primary ball handlers into turnovers, or they just don't
have that same level of off ball movement. That doesn't
happen with this Nuggets offense. They are incredibly disciplined. They
have the best playmaker on the planet, and they have
(07:19):
an awesome supporting cast, and I just think it's going
to be the same dilemma that everybody else has faced.
You try to cover yokicen single coverage, you die. You
try any combination of doubles, you die. Because the supporting
cast is too good as well. And it's so funny
to me how some people just continue to not understand this.
(07:39):
It's like Logan said, I thought that La had the
best combination of personnel to guard Yokic, And by the way,
Minnesota had a pretty good defensive front court two for
that matchup, and against La, Yokic went out and put
up twenty eight, fifteen and twelve efficiently. We had some
guy in our comments section yesterday say that it's simple.
All you got to do is front and with Bam
(08:00):
and then you double with one of the guards and
Yokich can't handle it.
Speaker 4 (08:02):
It's like, oh yeah, you're just gonna fluster him off
the catch. It's not like against these zone looks.
Speaker 5 (08:06):
Literally, the second he touches the ball, he has it
out to a shooter.
Speaker 4 (08:10):
He's just a different breed.
Speaker 5 (08:11):
He's the best player alive, and I think that's why
you're looking at such a mismatch here, because nobody can
take away what he and this Denver offense does.
Speaker 2 (08:20):
I'm glad you mentioned the supporting cast because it's an
important part of this.
Speaker 4 (08:24):
Like, here's the thing.
Speaker 2 (08:25):
I do believe Yokich is the best offensive player in
the league, but I don't think it's by some massive margin.
Like there are four they're generally speaking, throughout the NBA history,
there's three, four or five guys at any given moment
that are the ultimate conundrum, which is you can't guard
them on an island, and you can't guard them with
double teams because they can pass out of it. Like
Lebron's been like that, STEP's been like that over the years.
That's not necessarily unprecedented. What makes it unstoppable is the
(08:49):
ultimate supporting cast, Aaron Gordon being the perfect deep seal,
vertical threat, offensive rebounding threat who can also beat post
mismatches with KCP and Michael Porter Junior just as good
spot up shooters but utterly deadly spot up shooters. Like
if you literally flipped Michael Porter Junior for Grant Williams.
The whole thing crumbles because once those spot up shooting
(09:12):
numbers go from I literally cannot afford to leave this
guy open to yeah, I can kind of live with it.
It trickles down, and that'll be the really interesting phase
of Nikola Jokic's career is as it kind of fades
to the point where because of the CBA they have
to pinch some pennies on some of the role players.
That's where it'll get a little bit more complicated. That's
why I consider this Denver team. I was talking about
(09:32):
this with our colleague live yesterday, but I view this
Denver Nuggets team as an echelon above even other recent
NBA champions in terms of the fact that, like I
really do think they are exceptionally dominant and what they're
doing now is really impressive. Think of it like this,
like they actually kicked the shit out of the Suns
more than they kicked the shit out of the Lakers,
(09:54):
just didn't show up in the series score. Three of
the four wins were like nasty blowouts, right, and it
took these other worldly shooting performances from Devin Booker to
eke out a couple of wins. But like the Lakers
actually played them super close. In all four games, three
of them required clutch situations, one of them required to
Nicola Jokic late game winner, one of them had Lebron
(10:14):
missed late three that could have tied it, and the
one that didn't involve a clutch situation was literally a
game the Lakers had a double digit second half lead.
And so they've dominated the competition with the Kevin Durant
Devin Booker team, with the Lebron James Anthony Davis team,
I think they are all time great. I think they've
defended a hell of a lot better than any of
us could have expected. So I want I'm glad that
(10:36):
like I think this is. This has been a referendum
on how good Jokic is, but it's also been a
referendum on how good this roster is. Jamal Murray very
well could be a top fifteen player when we do
our player rankings this summer. So I wanted to shout
those guys out. What makes this problem unique to me?
If you look at the spolstress situation, so he has
effectively out chess matched three teams in a row that
(10:57):
were more talented him.
Speaker 4 (10:58):
That's just a fact.
Speaker 2 (10:59):
I don't think anybody he's disagreeing with us there, So
why is it that Sposure doesn't win the title every year?
Then if his coaching advantage is that big, especially since
there have been more talented by heat rosters. Hell, even
last year, I would argue they were more talented. They
had healthy Tyler Harrow, they had PJ. Tucker, they had
more size in athleticism. It's a totally different team, So
why is it working this year? That's what makes this
(11:20):
particular matchup interesting to me. Every single one of the
three teams that Miami beat on their way to the
NBA Finals didn't just have weaknesses, had glaring weaknesses in
their half court offense. For Milwaukee, it was Yiannis's inability
to make free throws and to make shots over the
top of the defense, and the inconsistency of Drew Holliday
(11:40):
and Chris Middleton, who was coming off of an injury.
In the second round, it was Julius Randall crumbling into
oblivion and the spot up shooters all going cold, which
left Jalen Brunson as their only solid half court option,
so they were really limited in the half court offensively.
And for the Boston Celtics, it was two primary shot
creators that are not playing at a superstar level, and
a surrounded by shooting that was not elite guys that
(12:02):
can all can make shots, but guys that weren't knocked
down shooters, so they could go cold for extended stretches.
So what that provided Eric Spolstra was opportunities for coaching
to play a massive role in the series because he
effectively able was able to capitalize on those weaknesses in
all three rounds and route to an NBA champ or
(12:22):
and to a birth in the NBA Finals. In this
particular series, there is no role, in my opinion, that
coaching can play to disrupt this Nuggets offense. In fact,
if Miami wins, I think there will be a very
clear reason why, it'll just be uncharacteristic cold shooting from
every Nugget, like Michael Porter will just go cold, CACP
will just go cold because they, let's call it what
(12:45):
it is, they shot the lights out against the Lakers,
which that's what they're capable of. But I find it
extremely unlikely that any sort of schematic approach is going
to disrupt what the Nuggets can do offensively. You talked
about the zone, like for the people who don't understand it.
It's really basic. You have to get the ball to
the middle of the zone. Why does that matter. It's
(13:06):
a simple math problem. In a two three zone, there
are three bodies on the back line. You have two
wings offensively that will slide down to the corner when
the ball gets to the middle. When you get the
balls to the middle, the big man has to step up.
When the big man gets it has to step up.
You create a math problem underneath the basket. It leaves
open shooters automatically. You just have to have somebody who's
capable of scoring there, which brings the big guy up
(13:28):
and you can make the reads quick enough. I know
you talked about how quick he got the reads out.
I saw a highlight in one of the games where
they threw it to Jokich at the high post. He
literally caught it up here and just flung it like this,
like in one fluid motion to a shooter on the wing.
It's like these guys are the combination of off ball shooting,
the two man game of Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic,
(13:49):
and Aaron Gordon being the perfect non shooter to fill
that role has made them completely and utterly unguardable, which
takes us to our second question. Obviously, the Denver offense
has a gigantic advantage. What is Miami's biggest advantage? Like,
if Miami wins this series and we're telling the story
(14:12):
about it in a post series like Moratorium, what is
Miami's biggest advantage?
Speaker 5 (14:18):
Carson, Well, first of all, I think that you're right
to say that this is the rare series in which
they're not going to be able to convincingly win the
coaching battle in a way that matters, because it's like
you said, Denver just doesn't have things that you can
exploit offensively. They don't turn the ball over, they have
the lowest turnover eight. They have this incredibly consistent shooting
(14:38):
supporting cast, they have this great cerebral decision maker leading
it all, and so they're different from every other team
that Miami has been able to exploit up to this point. Also,
you look at a team like Boston, right, you have
a lot of the mental lapses on both sides of
the ball, sometimes just their effort not being there. Denver
has been as consistently engaged as any team in this
playoff field, along with own Miami, so you're not gonna
(15:02):
be able to have that same leg up. I think
you have to look at two potential categories, one of
which could be the shooting ceiling. Do I think that
Miami is a better shooting team than Denver? I do not,
because it's like you said. MPG to me is one
of the five most gifted pure shooters of the basketball
this century. The guy is six ' ten. He can
shoot from any angle with any level of contest, off
(15:25):
any degree of movement.
Speaker 4 (15:26):
I saw stat today.
Speaker 5 (15:27):
I think his effective field goal percentage on wide open
catch and shoot jumpers in these playoffs is at around
ninety percent, Like it's unfathomable. And he is one of
the most efficient three point shooters in the league when
almost everything he takes is contested. KCP was leading the
league in three point percentage for a lot of this year.
Jamal is lethal as a pull up and catch and
shooter up around forty percent. Right, So Denver is an
(15:49):
elite shooting team. But when we've seen Miami pull these
big time upsets, not like New York where they were
able to get away with off shooting, because I think
they were just better at the end of the day.
They shot forty five percent from deep in their wins
against the Bucks. They shot forty eight percent from deep
in their wins against the Celtics. Do I consider that
sustainable or something you should expect, not necessarily, but we
(16:10):
have seen when all these guys are humming, they have
a lot of lethal shooters on the floor. At the
same time, they're able to create those guys looks out
of handoffs, facing drop out of pick and roll, lots
of great catch and shooters. So they could get very,
very hot there and that has been key to their
success so far. But the other thing that I think
is less a matter of variance and is more of
(16:31):
a legitimate advantage is their real depth. Like we can
look at the top five for Denver the top six
and say that's pretty clearly better. They have the best
player in the series and they have a great supporting cast.
But where Miami has been unrivaled in this playoff field,
I think is the ability to have their seventh or
(16:52):
eighth guys swing outcomes legitimately, or the variety of combinations
that they're able to go with. Right, Denver doesn't necessarily
have a Duncan Robinson who can come in playing eighteen
minutes a night, but give you eighteen and kill you
with his catch and shooting and his cutting and his
pick and roll playmaking at times in this last series.
(17:13):
Even the ability to go with a Kevin Love in
certain matchups and have his shooting and rebounding impact things.
Kyle Lowry capable at times of having these big time
pull up jump shooting performances. Even a guy like Haywood
high Smith coming in with his defense and his shooting
having an impact Denver after the top six, which is stellar.
Christian Brown is fine. I don't love Jeff Green, and
(17:33):
that's kind of it. We haven't seen them turn to
anybody else save like a few Reggie Jackson minutes last series,
So that's not normally something that's gonna swing a series,
but it is an advantage that Miami has, and potentially
those non Yokic minutes could get a bit ugly, especially
when there's a shift with no Jokic or Murray like
(17:56):
we saw there was one point in that La series
is where it's just an instant seven zero run when
you send those two guys to the bench.
Speaker 4 (18:03):
They just lack offensive direction.
Speaker 5 (18:06):
But I think that deep bench for Miami is legitimately
good and has proven to be in a way that
Denver hasn't necessarily.
Speaker 3 (18:15):
Yeah, that's where i'd look for where Miami has the advantage.
Speaker 1 (18:18):
If you frame it like that, if Miami wins this series,
it's going to be because of shooting.
Speaker 4 (18:21):
It's going to be.
Speaker 1 (18:22):
Because of depth, and I think it's specifically that pull
up jump shooting. This as a team, they are scoring
twenty five points per game on a thirty eight percent
clip on pull up jumpers in these playoffs. And I
want to make it clear too, guys, I don't think
that the Miami heater a better pull up jump shooting
team than Denver, because, like you guys said, I mean
Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Junior, even Jokic man, Like, I
(18:42):
just think there's a different skill level.
Speaker 3 (18:44):
But all of these guys can do it capably enough.
Speaker 1 (18:47):
And are deep enough to where, yeah, one guy can
go cold, and you can afford to have that off
night because you've got a lot of guys down in
this rotation who can get hot at the drop of
a head. I mean, guys, Caleb Martin. This is a
remarkable stat to me. Derek White was number one the
most efficient jump shooter in these playoffs before Boston got bounced,
Caleb Martin is at one point three six points per
jump shot in these playoffs. That's the second highest mark
(19:10):
out of anybody, and all these guys can shoot. Martin,
Robinson Lowry that over forty percent on pull up jumpers,
Jimmy's at thirty nine percent, and gave Vincent's at thirty
four percent. I mean, Vincent's a better shooter than that,
I think, but can just get hot. And so I
think if you're running pick and roll with the top
of the key, if the Nuggets are running drop with
NICOLEA Jokic, you know, I mean, we've seen Yokic come
(19:30):
up higher in his drops in certain series, but he
can still have that tendency to go to the basket.
If they give these guys a lane, Miami can kill
them from there. Again, I think it's unlikely, but that's
the one area that I would give Miami maybe a
slight advantage just because of the sheer volume and the
depth that they have of guys that can kill you
on that pull up jump shooting. But if I'm being honest, guys,
(19:51):
I really think that's the only advantage that Miami possesses.
I mean, I look at any of these other categories
that Miami has won throughout the rebounding, the hustle plays.
Like again, I think Denver has all of these physical
advantages as well, where all of these guys are bigger,
they're more athletic. And then again, I think it would take,
like Carson said, like you said, Jason, a real lack
(20:12):
of focus that we have just not seen from Denver
throughout the regular season and throughout these playoffs for Miami
to pull this off. So I think it's a it
would be a perfect storm. But the one area I
would point to is that pull up jump shooting and
the sheer depth that Miami has.
Speaker 2 (20:27):
Miami will have good offensive stretches in this series, in
my opinion. Well that's one of the things we learned
from the Lakers series is like they do a much
better job at the point of attack than you would expect.
Jokic actually does his job in the defense better than
you would expect, which is him coming up high out
of that drop and kind of it's almost like a
catch head where he's like kind of catching that driver.
(20:47):
But there's no doubt that they offer less rim resistance
than most teams, and so there will be you know,
pocket passes to Bam where it seems like he finishes
easily over the top of Aaron Gordon kind of roll
into the rim, or or Jimmy kind of uses a
head fake or a counter move to kind of get
past Jokic and then just kind of glides to the
rim for an easy layer. There's gonna be some moments
(21:08):
like that. I also think with the way that Denver's
pick and roll coverages work, some of these skip passes
to the weak side to shooters will work. Carson did
a good job breaking down just like the sheer amount
of shooting that Miami has. Mimi does a really good
job of keeping threats off the ball, so that like
when you make those defensive commitments to certain spots, the
spots on the floor, they can consistently make you pay.
(21:30):
I look at two specific areas offensively, those skip passes
to the shooters and then a lot of the stuff
that Lebron James was doing matchup hunting. I think we'll
see a lot of that from Jimmy Butler in this series.
So if you guys noticed, like one of the ways
that the Lakers confronted that coverage from Denver was just
running these ghost screens with Austin Reeves to try to
(21:53):
get Jamal Murray onto Lebron or to get him to
linger on Lebron too much where Austin Reeves was able
to get a shot. And one of the ways they
countered that was they started talking Jamal Murray away on
Dennis Schroeder and D'Angelo Russell, who D'Angel Russell just completely
crumbled in the series mentally and couldn't make a shot,
and Dennis Schroeder is too slow of a release and
(22:13):
can't shoot off the move, So it kind of mitigated
that problem. All of these shooters that are going to
be on the floor for Miami, whether that's Max Strus
or Gabe Vincent or Duncan robinsoner or Caleb Martin, they're
all going to be players that can shoot on the move,
and so that will put Denver in a little bit
of a predicament where they're gonna have no choice but
to put Jamal Murray on a guy who's capable of
(22:34):
making them pay and pick and pop situations. So I
do think we'll see a lot of Jimmy Butler matchup attacking.
He had seven post ups and ISOs in the two
games the season, scored nine points on him. Ironically, the
ones that he didn't succeed super well on I thought
were the Jokic possessions where he tried to iso Jokic.
Jokic does a pretty good job of anticipating his moves
(22:56):
and baiting him into long contested jump shots, but he
had a lot of success attacking Michael Porter Junior. He
attacked Jamal Murray as well for those classic little short
jump shots that he's been hitting this entire playoff run.
So they're gonna have offensive moments. Their biggest advantage is
Jimmy Butler is basically just another version of Lebron, which,
by the way, I thought Lebron outplayed Anthony Davis in
the last round. I thought it was the one round
(23:18):
in this playoff run where Lebron outplayed ad. I thought
a d outplayed him in the previous two rounds. So
that specific type of player, that big playmaking forward is
the specific type of player that can give the Nuggets
some problems. But it's just like juxtaposed with what the
Nuggets do, it's like they're just gonna get one hundred
and twenty points, So where are you getting your one
(23:39):
hundred and twenty points?
Speaker 4 (23:40):
Like where you know?
Speaker 2 (23:41):
That's why I said to my show, like they're gonna
need some sort of other world the offensive contribution. I
watched all of bam Adebio's post ups and ISOs against Jokic.
He had a couple quick moves in there that looked okay,
but it's a lot of him settling for those tough,
fadeaway jump shots in the lane that he's just not
making right now. And he seems to have completely lost
his confidence after what happened in that Boston series, after
(24:03):
he smoked that hook shot right at the rim there
in the a second half of Game seven. So yeah,
it's just I just don't see a universe where that
advantage is enough. And Carson, you mentioned this, and I
think this has been the most important thing about Denver.
They have been the team that doesn't seem susceptible to
the ebbs and flows of desperation like they like. I've
(24:24):
seen them face desperate teams and consistently play to the
same level. From an efforts stame point, they would have
swept Phoenix if it wasn't for Devin Booker undergoing an
unlike literally an out of body experience as a pull
up shooter. So I think a sweep is on the table.
I can't pick a sweep because I've been so wrong
about Miami in this playoff front and I refuse to
make that mistake again. But like I, let's just put
(24:46):
it this way. I have a flight to Bozeman, Montana
for a relaxation trip away from the Arizona Heat after
Game six, and I thoroughly expect to be able to
make that flight without having to work a Game seven.
That's where I'm at right now, So from there, let's
move on. Obviously, we have two players in this series
that are kind of regarded as upper echelon players but
(25:11):
are missing the ultimate achievement, which is the NBA Finals.
And I said this on my show, but like to me,
the Finals are so sacred, and every year when we
get to this time and I see the Finals Moniker
and the logo, and I see the commercials, and I
see the ABC intro video and all those different things,
I'm always reminded why this matters so much to me
(25:32):
and why I don't give, you know, I don't give
the place in the hierarchy of the league to guys
that haven't won a title yet, because I think this
is the ultimate test for a basketball player, and as
good as Jokic is, I think it's fair that I'm like, hey,
let me see you do it at this stage first,
you know, before we kind of give you that credit.
But no matter what, two weeks from now, we're gonna
(25:54):
be looking back and one of these guys, Jokich or
Jimmy Butler, is going to be stamped as an NBA
champion in the finals MVP. So my question for you, guys,
who has the most gain from an NBA Finals win.
Let's start with Logan.
Speaker 1 (26:08):
I think both of these guys have a lot to
gain from an NBA Finals win. Like you said, I
think a lot of people are gonna wake up if
Jokic gets this ring done to the fact that he
is the best player on planet Earth. And I understand,
I get it. You know, you don't want to crown
the guy before he gets a championship. I think Jokic
has been in this conversation for a while, but this
will finally give him some credence and some real weight.
Speaker 4 (26:28):
To an already really loaded resume.
Speaker 1 (26:31):
I mean this will propel him, I think to one
of the greatest centers of all time. I think Jimmy
probably if we're looking at this one to one. I
don't know how you can't say Jimmy though, I mean
just looking at what he's had to have gone through
through these playoffs circumstance wise, you look at not having
Tyler Hero, I mean a complete lack of offensive creation
(26:52):
reliably outside of Hero Like, yeah, man, I love the
depth here. I love all the guys, d Rob Lowry Martin.
They've played their asses off to this point, including Gabe Vincent.
But it's like it's it's not a finals caliber roster
to where of normal caliber. They slid the number one
seed and who I thought was the best player on
the planet coming into this, coming into these playoffs, I mean,
(27:15):
you know, Giannis missed a couple games, but they take
down the one seeded Bucks and then if Jimmy did
it again, I think a lot of this rides on
if Jimmy did this in this series. I mean, you're
slaying two of the biggest dragons in basketball, and Giannis
on Tetakumpo and Nicola Jokic at on top of that
that you already slayed the Boston Celtics, who I just
think are unequivocally a more talented team.
Speaker 4 (27:35):
This would be the.
Speaker 1 (27:36):
Most shocking finals win of all time. This would be
the most shocking run to the finals of all time. Like,
if Jimmy got it done, I think this would just
mean more than Jokic's ring. Like, don't I don't understand
what it means for Jokic because I think this propels
him to being one of the greatest centers of all
time and people like an undeniable level, finally in a
(27:57):
level where everyone has to wake up and realize that
he's one of the greatest center ever. But this is
one of the most improbable and difficult pass to the
title of all time. So if Jimmy got it done,
I think it would mean more he finally gets that
finals MVP, And we talked about this on our show.
Carson gave down a list of guys who have similar
resumes to Jimmy being the number one on two teams
(28:18):
that went to the finals, being a number one on
three teams that went to the Eastern or went to
the conference finals. Excuse me, it's already a short list.
Getting that ring would really really validate Jimmy and how
tough of a path it's been, So I think it
means slightly more for Jimmy. But I always love when
one when we have a matchup where finally somebody knew
is getting crowned.
Speaker 3 (28:38):
So it means a lot for both of these guys.
Speaker 1 (28:40):
But if Jimmy were to get it done, I mean
an eight seed winning of finals on this improbable of
a run, I think would probably mean a little more.
Speaker 5 (28:48):
It's interesting when you say that it would be the
most surprising title ever because I'm reflecting on it. This
is sort of an area of expertise of mine, I
like to think, and you're probably right because when you
think about the lower seeds to win it all, you
have the ninety five Rockets as the sixth seed, right,
but they were the defending champs.
Speaker 4 (29:08):
They had added Clyde Drexler. Can't put it in this tier.
Speaker 5 (29:10):
You have, for example, the sixty nine Celtics Russells last year.
They were just a forty eight win team, but they
had already won ten, so I think you can give
them the benefit of the doubt. Any seventies champ, there's
a lot of ones in there who are hovering around
fifty wins. But that's because it was the greatest era
of parody. And then this century people will say the
twenty eleven MAVs, and sure there was obviously a very
(29:32):
difficult path. They're going through the Thunder and the Lakers
and the Heat that was a fifty seven win team
with a top twenty player of all time. You have
the six Heat who were they were like a fifty
two win team. They had to beat the sixty four
win Pistons superhuman d way that was surprising. But this
is an eight seat that has been down for their
(29:54):
third most talented player these playoffs and does not have
that kind of all time talent at the time. So
I think it's Jimmy two because Jimmy's thirty three years
old and this is a chance for him, I believe,
to climb into the top fifty all time, and I
think he's already knocking on that door.
Speaker 4 (30:14):
I've gone through this on Nerd Sesh.
Speaker 5 (30:16):
But since the ABA NBA merger, he's now one of
just twenty five guys to be the clear best player
on three conference finalists and one of just twenty guys
to be the clear best player on two NBA finalists,
and he's one of nine guys to average twenty seven,
six and four on fifty seven percent TRU shooting in
multiple playoff runs with a minimum of ten games, joining Lebron,
(30:37):
Katie mj Kawhi, Kareem Jokic, Steph and Larry Bird. So
Jimmy's playoff resume largely based on these last four years,
but has to put him in those conversations because of
the consistency with which the best attributes of his game
have translated. His physical imposition, his ability to get into
the lane into those short mid range shots and kill
(30:57):
you their attack. This matches his playmaking, his defensive dominance.
All of that has made him a great playoff performer
in this latter stretch of his career.
Speaker 4 (31:07):
But if you were gonna ask me, well, who's more
likely to get back?
Speaker 5 (31:11):
I think it has to be the Nuggets, with the
infrastructure that they have, the level of talent they have,
their core being younger, and who is it more likely
that this is, like so far and away, the defining
thing of their career if they win, it's Jimmy Jokic
already has the two MVPs He's gonna have plenty more
cracks at it. Jimmy twenty twenty NBA Finals again put
(31:33):
himself in special territory. He's one of five guys ever
to average twenty six point eight assist a game in
the finals with Magic Steph MJ and who's the last one? Well,
I forget right now. But anyways, Jimmy continues to put
himself in these special categories in the playoffs, this would
be a different level. So I think it's Jimmy, but
(31:56):
I think Jokic cements himself is a top twenty player
of all time if they the title too.
Speaker 2 (32:02):
You know, this is a complicated question because I think
Jokic has an interesting dynamic in terms of what he
has to lose in this playoff series, this upcoming series,
like for like, both of them have a lot to
gain because Jokic is someone that goes from if he
los like if he wins it, he's the consensus top
player in the league, and that obviously is a huge accomplishment.
(32:26):
Jimmy Butler, even if he wins, is not going to
be considered the best player in the league. He uh
to me, Jimmy, Jimmy is a really interesting player in
NBA history, because like he never really has been on
that grade of a team, and he's consistently playing in
these late playoff rounds, in these huge games, in a
(32:48):
massive talent disadvantage, you know, and so like in a
weird way, like I actually like Jimmy kind of is
going to be regarded the way he's regarded regardless of
what happens, which is the dude who never was considered
like that true foundational superstar because he never was consistently
great enough in the regular season, but when it comes
(33:10):
to this level of NBA playoff basketball, he's on short lists.
Like what Carson was saying it is, there's no doubt
though that Jokic has the most to lose, and I
don't expect him to lose for the record, I mean,
I picked him in six, but I could see a
sweep potentially happening here. And I also have just no
(33:31):
doubt at all whatsoever that he's gonna play great.
Speaker 3 (33:33):
Like it it's like the stay.
Speaker 2 (33:34):
It's it reminds me of prime Lebron James, where it's
like he's just because he thrives so much as a
playmaker and making shots close to the rim, which by
the way, is exactly why Lebron was so consistently great
over the years. That's what makes me consistently great playoff
player like he is. Two foundational tenets of his game
are not dependent on night to night shot result, and
(33:56):
so he can bring a level of consistent positive impact.
That said, obviously, if the Heat somehow find a way
to steal the series, it's not a good look and
it would probably require a disaster of a defensive performance
from him. So he certainly has the most to lose.
But I mean, here's the thing. As far as I'm
concerned with Jimmy Butler, he will always be regarded the
(34:16):
way that he's regarded now, regardless of what happens, because
of the simple fact that, like everyone knows he's that
guy that like, it doesn't matter who's on his team,
it doesn't matter what his regular season record is. When
you have to see him for seven games, it's going
to be a royal pain in the ass. And that's
kind of like that would be the best way that
I'd break it down to my children one day if
they were like, Hey, who the hell is Jimmy Butler?
(34:36):
Why do we care about him? When he fairly when
he didn't average what Lebron averaged or whatever. You know,
that's what we're gonna say. So all right, I said
nuggets and six. Let's get picks from you guys. Let's
start with Let's start with Carson. Who do you pick
in this series? In how many games?
Speaker 5 (34:52):
I'm taking nuggets in five. I think that having the
best player alive and the best offense at the best
offense has proven to be insurmountable for everybody they've faced
so far. And I think it's the incredible offensive variety.
We talk about it in every phase, great transition offense,
dominant pick and roll offense, so good at creating looks
for guys with handoffs. With the level of shooting they
(35:13):
have and the level of screening from Yokic, it just
doesn't stop with them. I do think their size advantage matters.
Aaron Gordon's gonna have mismatches to attack. Again, they don't
have the kind of bodies to throw at Yokic. MPJ
is going to be getting a lot of relatively uncontested
looks just by rising up a guy who's five inches
taller than who's going to have to be on him.
(35:35):
And again, Denver's not susceptible to the kind of lapses
that everybody else Miami has played. Is they have the
highest floor in the NBA. Jokic as a player has
the highest floor in the NBA for the exact reasons
that you just laid out. Jason and Denver's got home
court the most significant home court advantage in the league.
They're thirty nine and four there when Yokic plays this year.
(35:57):
I just think they are better, and I think having
the best offense in the league, and I think an
all time great offense is the driving factor there. They
have an ir offensive rating right now over one nineteen
than any champion in NBA history, and that number has
been incredibly high in every matchup so far in these playoffs.
They just keep getting it done. It was higher as
(36:17):
the Lakers. It was one twenty two against the Lakers.
Like It's just ridiculous. So all due respect to the Heat,
I love Jimmy, they have proven me wrong over and
over again in this playoff run. I have consistently underestimated
their ability to dominate so convincingly in coaching and execution
and Jimmy being the best player on the floor that
they have pulled off these upsets. I do think that
(36:40):
that ends here, though.
Speaker 3 (36:42):
Yeah, I also wanted to pick the Nuggets sweep. Bejones
to call that one.
Speaker 1 (36:48):
I just Jimmy's proven me wrong a few too many
times for me to convincingly say that he's not going
to get a game.
Speaker 3 (36:53):
But I think you're exactly right. Guys.
Speaker 1 (36:55):
You talk about the historic offense. The Nuggets have an
offensive rating of nearly one twenty per hundred possessions. It's
the highest offensive rating through the conference finals before an
NBA Finals since the twenty seventeen Cavs. I mean they
are a special, special offense led by Jokichen Murray. Like
I just think for the Heat to win this, it
would take an uncharacteristically bad series from Denver in every
(37:18):
facet of the game and all of the categories that
Miami has won up to this. The Hustle plays the
outlier shooting, and I don't even know if we can
say it's really an outlier. They're a thirty nine percent
team from deep, but I think it would take a
superhuman effort from Jimmy.
Speaker 3 (37:32):
I would think it takes this.
Speaker 1 (37:34):
Team shooting over forty percent from deep on the whole
not taking game off, winning all the hustle plays, protecting
the rock every game. Like, I just think it would
take the Heat playing at a all time high, and
I think it would take the Nuggets just lapsing in
areas that they haven't lapsed this entire season. So yeah,
what's the new story, guys? I think the Miami heater
(37:55):
a little overwhelmed in this matchup. Maybe I'll be wrong again,
but I again think the Miami Heat are drastically out talented, overwhelmed,
and I don't think they can schematically scheme up anything
to give them an advantage.
Speaker 3 (38:07):
So yeah, I'm going Denver in five.
Speaker 1 (38:09):
And if Jimmy hadn't been doing this, I'd probably take
on the full logic side Denver to sweep.
Speaker 2 (38:15):
Yeah, it's interesting, the logan, the way you broke it
down is perfect. The all of the specific ways that
Miami's been winning are things that specifically will not work
against Denver, and that's what makes me worry about his sweep.
And again, like, you just know Miami's going to find
a way to compete in some of these games, but
(38:37):
it's just I could see it any sooner than later
as well.
Speaker 4 (38:40):
All Right, guys. So here's the deal.
Speaker 2 (38:42):
My guess is we might see you guys at some
point over the course of the series if it gets interesting,
if it's a sweep, maybe not. But I think the
day after I get back from Montana is the Draft.
I would imagine that at the very least, I'll see
you guys for some draft content on the day of
Always fun chopping it up up and talking basketball with
you boys. I appreciate it as always. To the listeners,
(39:04):
as always, we appreciate you guys. We will be back
tomorrow night after the final buzzer of Game one of
the NBA Finals to break it all down. I'm sure
the Nerd Sash guys will as well. We appreciate you, guys,
and we'll see you tomorrow.
Speaker 1 (39:35):
The volume
The Volume.
Speaker 2 (00:15):
All right, welcome to Hoops Tonight. Here at the Volume,
Happy Wednesday, everybody, Happy. NBA Finals EVE. Coverage of the
NBA Finals. Here at Hoops Tonight is brought to you
by Chase Freedom Unlimited. How do you cash back? We're
gonna prime for Game one, but bringing on the guys
from Nerd, Sesh, Logan and Carson Gonna come on. I
have a lot of interesting stuff that I dug up
during my NBA Finals preview on Tuesday morning, and so
(00:38):
we've got four questions from this series that we're gonna
dive into. I'm gonna start with the biggest problem. Is
there any chance that Miami can slow down Nikola Jokic.
So before I t this one up, we'll start with Logan.
Before I tear t this one up for you, I
have a crazy stat So in my film study Person Energy,
(01:00):
the Denver Nuggets posted up the Miami Heat thirty times
and they are two games this season and scored in
astonishing forty seven points on those thirty post ups, which
is over a point and a half per possession. Wasn't
just Jokic. There's a lot of Aaron Gordon beaten switches
as well. A little bit of Jamal Murray. But the
(01:22):
reality is is it's a Jokic problem because even when
I was watching them spam Aaron Gordon post ups on
Kyle Lowry, it was a lot of Nikola Jokic identifying
the mismatch, placing the off ball players where he wanted them,
and making that post entry pass from the left wing.
So my question for both of you guys start with logan,
is there any chance that Miami can slow down the
(01:43):
attack of the Denver Nuggets and Nikola Jokic.
Speaker 1 (01:47):
Yeah, you know, we answered this question on a NERD session.
I think if Eric Spolster or Jimmy Butler can find
like a rabbit foot or a four leaf clover, maybe,
or maybe they go and rub as many old lamps
as they can and can get a genie to pop
out with some wishes, I think they can get it done. No,
I don't think they really have a prayer at slowing
down Jokic. Jason, you mentioned those crazy post up numbers
(02:10):
to the Carson mentioned a crazy stat on our show.
The Nuggets have also been one of the best teams
against the zone point blank person energy too. I mean,
I don't really know personnel wise or schematically wise, what
the Heat can do to slow down this attack, right,
because I think a lot of people are gonna look
at this matchup and they're gonna go all bam Adebayo
is one of the best defenders on planet Earth. You
(02:30):
stick him one on one on Jokic, maybe they can
slow him down a little bit.
Speaker 3 (02:34):
It's just not that simple, man, you know.
Speaker 1 (02:35):
I look at the two man game with Jokich and Murray,
and that's what really causes problems is all the switches
that this Nuggets offense creates. The Heat don't have the
personnel to be really switchable. They don't have the personnel
to stick another guy on Jokic and have bam and
kind of that Rover off ball roll. The way the
Lakers were. I think the Lakers were the best defensive
matchup that we saw for Denver. In all of these
(02:57):
teams in the playoff field. They had a lot of big,
physical guys like Hatch, you like Van Do like a
d and that still didn't matter.
Speaker 3 (03:04):
The Lakers got swept.
Speaker 1 (03:05):
And I also agree with you guys, I think Ad
is the best defensive player on the planet Earth. So yeah,
I mean, short answer, I think it would take something spiritual.
I think it would take cosmic entity guys. I think
it will take something. I think it'll take a lot
of praying for the Miami Heat to slow down this offense.
I don't really think that they can do anything schematically
(03:26):
to slow them down.
Speaker 3 (03:27):
I just kind of think they're outmatched.
Speaker 1 (03:29):
I know that's a boring answer, but I think the
Nuggets have the most talented offense in the NBA, the
best offensive player who's just an unsolvable puzzle. Whatever you
throw at Yokic, he has an answer for you. You
can't throw him doubles, he will find an open shooter.
You can't put one guy on him because he's gonna
bully that matchup.
Speaker 3 (03:47):
So no, I think it's.
Speaker 1 (03:48):
Gonna take a lot of luck and maybe some some
lucky objects too for the Heat, man, I don't really
think they have an answer for the offense or Jokic.
Speaker 2 (03:56):
It's supposure to run out on the floor as a
six defenders what you can.
Speaker 4 (04:01):
It wouldn't hurt.
Speaker 5 (04:02):
But I also don't think that there's really an answer
in this series because I think the Niko Jokic is
effectively unstoppable offensively in this run He's thirty thirteen and
ten on sixty two percent true shooting. I believe in
the midst of one of the handful of highest offensive
peaks we've ever seen, because he is arguably the best
playmaker and scorer alive right now and has such a
(04:24):
tremendous versatility to the number of ways in which he
can kill you, and I just think you run down
the heat options one by one. Like Logan mentioned, you
try Bam on jokicen single coverage, I just think that's
a mismatch. Bam is an awesome defender, one of the
five best on the planet in my opinion, but his
primary defensive value is as a team defender, his immense switchability,
(04:48):
his IQ is value as a helper and rinp protector.
One on one defense, You're looking at a six to
nine guy with a seven to one wing span. He
is simply not big enough to affect Yokic in a
meaningful way, and by the way, nobody really has been.
I mean, we've seen him go up against massive elite
defensive players with tremendous length, Rudy Gobert in single coverage,
(05:08):
Anthony Davis in single coverage, and he cooked both those
guys so thoroughly that the best option for those teams became, Okay,
let's put another big, strong body on him, so then
we can have our best defenders and help. But I
also think, as Logan laid out, Miami is not particularly
well equipped to try that strategy with Bam as the roamer.
The guy who you probably have to look to there
(05:31):
as the primary Jokic post defender would be Kevin Love,
who has a big body, but not a very good
defender in bottom line still six ' eight, like Jokic
is just gonna give him work, a whole lot of it,
and he's averaged one point two points per post up
in this playoff run. That number holds true if he's
the one shooting or if he's the one passing. Nobody
(05:53):
can guard him in single coverage. He is too powerful.
He is too unstoppable as a skilled shot maker with
his turnarounds, with his hooks and his touch finishing, and
the playmaking is obviously unreal. We saw in that La
series the regularity with which, if somebody just dug in
that little bit, he was finding the open shooter and
creating consistently elite offense for his teammates. And then the
(06:15):
weapon for Miami this entire playoff run has been the zone.
We saw it give Boston fits in multiple games. We
saw it give New York fits. I do not think
it works against Denver. As Logan mentioned, the Nuggets were
a ninety third percentile offense against zone this year, almost
one point two points per possession. Just ridiculous. And Jokic
(06:37):
is so dominant facilitating from the middle of the floor,
and Denver is so good at moving to open space.
They have so many good cutters, and they have so
many lethal shooters who have demonstrated a level of consistency
there that really nobody in the league can match. You're
just not gonna rattle them. You're just not gonna throw
them out of their rhythm in the same way that
(06:58):
you're able to do to Boston, where maybe they're not
getting consistent penetration into the middle of that zone, or
they're settling for these sort of one pass, catch and
shoot looks that aren't great, or you're able to force
their primary ball handlers into turnovers, or they just don't
have that same level of off ball movement. That doesn't
happen with this Nuggets offense. They are incredibly disciplined. They
have the best playmaker on the planet, and they have
(07:19):
an awesome supporting cast, and I just think it's going
to be the same dilemma that everybody else has faced.
You try to cover yokicen single coverage, you die. You
try any combination of doubles, you die. Because the supporting
cast is too good as well. And it's so funny
to me how some people just continue to not understand this.
(07:39):
It's like Logan said, I thought that La had the
best combination of personnel to guard Yokic, And by the way,
Minnesota had a pretty good defensive front court two for
that matchup, and against La, Yokic went out and put
up twenty eight, fifteen and twelve efficiently. We had some
guy in our comments section yesterday say that it's simple.
All you got to do is front and with Bam
(08:00):
and then you double with one of the guards and
Yokich can't handle it.
Speaker 4 (08:02):
It's like, oh yeah, you're just gonna fluster him off
the catch. It's not like against these zone looks.
Speaker 5 (08:06):
Literally, the second he touches the ball, he has it
out to a shooter.
Speaker 4 (08:10):
He's just a different breed.
Speaker 5 (08:11):
He's the best player alive, and I think that's why
you're looking at such a mismatch here, because nobody can
take away what he and this Denver offense does.
Speaker 2 (08:20):
I'm glad you mentioned the supporting cast because it's an
important part of this.
Speaker 4 (08:24):
Like, here's the thing.
Speaker 2 (08:25):
I do believe Yokich is the best offensive player in
the league, but I don't think it's by some massive margin.
Like there are four they're generally speaking, throughout the NBA history,
there's three, four or five guys at any given moment
that are the ultimate conundrum, which is you can't guard
them on an island, and you can't guard them with
double teams because they can pass out of it. Like
Lebron's been like that, STEP's been like that over the years.
That's not necessarily unprecedented. What makes it unstoppable is the
(08:49):
ultimate supporting cast, Aaron Gordon being the perfect deep seal,
vertical threat, offensive rebounding threat who can also beat post
mismatches with KCP and Michael Porter Junior just as good
spot up shooters but utterly deadly spot up shooters. Like
if you literally flipped Michael Porter Junior for Grant Williams.
The whole thing crumbles because once those spot up shooting
(09:12):
numbers go from I literally cannot afford to leave this
guy open to yeah, I can kind of live with it.
It trickles down, and that'll be the really interesting phase
of Nikola Jokic's career is as it kind of fades
to the point where because of the CBA they have
to pinch some pennies on some of the role players.
That's where it'll get a little bit more complicated. That's
why I consider this Denver team. I was talking about
(09:32):
this with our colleague live yesterday, but I view this
Denver Nuggets team as an echelon above even other recent
NBA champions in terms of the fact that, like I
really do think they are exceptionally dominant and what they're
doing now is really impressive. Think of it like this,
like they actually kicked the shit out of the Suns
more than they kicked the shit out of the Lakers,
(09:54):
just didn't show up in the series score. Three of
the four wins were like nasty blowouts, right, and it
took these other worldly shooting performances from Devin Booker to
eke out a couple of wins. But like the Lakers
actually played them super close. In all four games, three
of them required clutch situations, one of them required to
Nicola Jokic late game winner, one of them had Lebron
(10:14):
missed late three that could have tied it, and the
one that didn't involve a clutch situation was literally a
game the Lakers had a double digit second half lead.
And so they've dominated the competition with the Kevin Durant
Devin Booker team, with the Lebron James Anthony Davis team,
I think they are all time great. I think they've
defended a hell of a lot better than any of
us could have expected. So I want I'm glad that
(10:36):
like I think this is. This has been a referendum
on how good Jokic is, but it's also been a
referendum on how good this roster is. Jamal Murray very
well could be a top fifteen player when we do
our player rankings this summer. So I wanted to shout
those guys out. What makes this problem unique to me?
If you look at the spolstress situation, so he has
effectively out chess matched three teams in a row that
(10:57):
were more talented him.
Speaker 4 (10:58):
That's just a fact.
Speaker 2 (10:59):
I don't think anybody he's disagreeing with us there, So
why is it that Sposure doesn't win the title every year?
Then if his coaching advantage is that big, especially since
there have been more talented by heat rosters. Hell, even
last year, I would argue they were more talented. They
had healthy Tyler Harrow, they had PJ. Tucker, they had
more size in athleticism. It's a totally different team, So
why is it working this year? That's what makes this
(11:20):
particular matchup interesting to me. Every single one of the
three teams that Miami beat on their way to the
NBA Finals didn't just have weaknesses, had glaring weaknesses in
their half court offense. For Milwaukee, it was Yiannis's inability
to make free throws and to make shots over the
top of the defense, and the inconsistency of Drew Holliday
(11:40):
and Chris Middleton, who was coming off of an injury.
In the second round, it was Julius Randall crumbling into
oblivion and the spot up shooters all going cold, which
left Jalen Brunson as their only solid half court option,
so they were really limited in the half court offensively.
And for the Boston Celtics, it was two primary shot
creators that are not playing at a superstar level, and
a surrounded by shooting that was not elite guys that
(12:02):
can all can make shots, but guys that weren't knocked
down shooters, so they could go cold for extended stretches.
So what that provided Eric Spolstra was opportunities for coaching
to play a massive role in the series because he
effectively able was able to capitalize on those weaknesses in
all three rounds and route to an NBA champ or
(12:22):
and to a birth in the NBA Finals. In this
particular series, there is no role, in my opinion, that
coaching can play to disrupt this Nuggets offense. In fact,
if Miami wins, I think there will be a very
clear reason why, it'll just be uncharacteristic cold shooting from
every Nugget, like Michael Porter will just go cold, CACP
will just go cold because they, let's call it what
(12:45):
it is, they shot the lights out against the Lakers,
which that's what they're capable of. But I find it
extremely unlikely that any sort of schematic approach is going
to disrupt what the Nuggets can do offensively. You talked
about the zone, like for the people who don't understand it.
It's really basic. You have to get the ball to
the middle of the zone. Why does that matter. It's
(13:06):
a simple math problem. In a two three zone, there
are three bodies on the back line. You have two
wings offensively that will slide down to the corner when
the ball gets to the middle. When you get the
balls to the middle, the big man has to step up.
When the big man gets it has to step up.
You create a math problem underneath the basket. It leaves
open shooters automatically. You just have to have somebody who's
capable of scoring there, which brings the big guy up
(13:28):
and you can make the reads quick enough. I know
you talked about how quick he got the reads out.
I saw a highlight in one of the games where
they threw it to Jokich at the high post. He
literally caught it up here and just flung it like this,
like in one fluid motion to a shooter on the wing.
It's like these guys are the combination of off ball shooting,
the two man game of Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic,
(13:49):
and Aaron Gordon being the perfect non shooter to fill
that role has made them completely and utterly unguardable, which
takes us to our second question. Obviously, the Denver offense
has a gigantic advantage. What is Miami's biggest advantage? Like,
if Miami wins this series and we're telling the story
(14:12):
about it in a post series like Moratorium, what is
Miami's biggest advantage?
Speaker 5 (14:18):
Carson, Well, first of all, I think that you're right
to say that this is the rare series in which
they're not going to be able to convincingly win the
coaching battle in a way that matters, because it's like
you said, Denver just doesn't have things that you can
exploit offensively. They don't turn the ball over, they have
the lowest turnover eight. They have this incredibly consistent shooting
(14:38):
supporting cast, they have this great cerebral decision maker leading
it all, and so they're different from every other team
that Miami has been able to exploit up to this point. Also,
you look at a team like Boston, right, you have
a lot of the mental lapses on both sides of
the ball, sometimes just their effort not being there. Denver
has been as consistently engaged as any team in this
playoff field, along with own Miami, so you're not gonna
(15:02):
be able to have that same leg up. I think
you have to look at two potential categories, one of
which could be the shooting ceiling. Do I think that
Miami is a better shooting team than Denver? I do not,
because it's like you said. MPG to me is one
of the five most gifted pure shooters of the basketball
this century. The guy is six ' ten. He can
shoot from any angle with any level of contest, off
(15:25):
any degree of movement.
Speaker 4 (15:26):
I saw stat today.
Speaker 5 (15:27):
I think his effective field goal percentage on wide open
catch and shoot jumpers in these playoffs is at around
ninety percent, Like it's unfathomable. And he is one of
the most efficient three point shooters in the league when
almost everything he takes is contested. KCP was leading the
league in three point percentage for a lot of this year.
Jamal is lethal as a pull up and catch and
shooter up around forty percent. Right, So Denver is an
(15:49):
elite shooting team. But when we've seen Miami pull these
big time upsets, not like New York where they were
able to get away with off shooting, because I think
they were just better at the end of the day.
They shot forty five percent from deep in their wins
against the Bucks. They shot forty eight percent from deep
in their wins against the Celtics. Do I consider that
sustainable or something you should expect, not necessarily, but we
(16:10):
have seen when all these guys are humming, they have
a lot of lethal shooters on the floor. At the
same time, they're able to create those guys looks out
of handoffs, facing drop out of pick and roll, lots
of great catch and shooters. So they could get very,
very hot there and that has been key to their
success so far. But the other thing that I think
is less a matter of variance and is more of
(16:31):
a legitimate advantage is their real depth. Like we can
look at the top five for Denver the top six
and say that's pretty clearly better. They have the best
player in the series and they have a great supporting cast.
But where Miami has been unrivaled in this playoff field,
I think is the ability to have their seventh or
(16:52):
eighth guys swing outcomes legitimately, or the variety of combinations
that they're able to go with. Right, Denver doesn't necessarily
have a Duncan Robinson who can come in playing eighteen
minutes a night, but give you eighteen and kill you
with his catch and shooting and his cutting and his
pick and roll playmaking at times in this last series.
(17:13):
Even the ability to go with a Kevin Love in
certain matchups and have his shooting and rebounding impact things.
Kyle Lowry capable at times of having these big time
pull up jump shooting performances. Even a guy like Haywood
high Smith coming in with his defense and his shooting
having an impact Denver after the top six, which is stellar.
Christian Brown is fine. I don't love Jeff Green, and
(17:33):
that's kind of it. We haven't seen them turn to
anybody else save like a few Reggie Jackson minutes last series,
So that's not normally something that's gonna swing a series,
but it is an advantage that Miami has, and potentially
those non Yokic minutes could get a bit ugly, especially
when there's a shift with no Jokic or Murray like
(17:56):
we saw there was one point in that La series
is where it's just an instant seven zero run when
you send those two guys to the bench.
Speaker 4 (18:03):
They just lack offensive direction.
Speaker 5 (18:06):
But I think that deep bench for Miami is legitimately
good and has proven to be in a way that
Denver hasn't necessarily.
Speaker 3 (18:15):
Yeah, that's where i'd look for where Miami has the advantage.
Speaker 1 (18:18):
If you frame it like that, if Miami wins this series,
it's going to be because of shooting.
Speaker 4 (18:21):
It's going to be.
Speaker 1 (18:22):
Because of depth, and I think it's specifically that pull
up jump shooting. This as a team, they are scoring
twenty five points per game on a thirty eight percent
clip on pull up jumpers in these playoffs. And I
want to make it clear too, guys, I don't think
that the Miami heater a better pull up jump shooting
team than Denver, because, like you guys said, I mean
Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Junior, even Jokic man, Like, I
(18:42):
just think there's a different skill level.
Speaker 3 (18:44):
But all of these guys can do it capably enough.
Speaker 1 (18:47):
And are deep enough to where, yeah, one guy can
go cold, and you can afford to have that off
night because you've got a lot of guys down in
this rotation who can get hot at the drop of
a head. I mean, guys, Caleb Martin. This is a
remarkable stat to me. Derek White was number one the
most efficient jump shooter in these playoffs before Boston got bounced,
Caleb Martin is at one point three six points per
jump shot in these playoffs. That's the second highest mark
(19:10):
out of anybody, and all these guys can shoot. Martin,
Robinson Lowry that over forty percent on pull up jumpers,
Jimmy's at thirty nine percent, and gave Vincent's at thirty
four percent. I mean, Vincent's a better shooter than that,
I think, but can just get hot. And so I
think if you're running pick and roll with the top
of the key, if the Nuggets are running drop with
NICOLEA Jokic, you know, I mean, we've seen Yokic come
(19:30):
up higher in his drops in certain series, but he
can still have that tendency to go to the basket.
If they give these guys a lane, Miami can kill
them from there. Again, I think it's unlikely, but that's
the one area that I would give Miami maybe a
slight advantage just because of the sheer volume and the
depth that they have of guys that can kill you
on that pull up jump shooting. But if I'm being honest, guys,
(19:51):
I really think that's the only advantage that Miami possesses.
I mean, I look at any of these other categories
that Miami has won throughout the rebounding, the hustle plays.
Like again, I think Denver has all of these physical
advantages as well, where all of these guys are bigger,
they're more athletic. And then again, I think it would take,
like Carson said, like you said, Jason, a real lack
(20:12):
of focus that we have just not seen from Denver
throughout the regular season and throughout these playoffs for Miami
to pull this off. So I think it's a it
would be a perfect storm. But the one area I
would point to is that pull up jump shooting and
the sheer depth that Miami has.
Speaker 2 (20:27):
Miami will have good offensive stretches in this series, in
my opinion. Well that's one of the things we learned
from the Lakers series is like they do a much
better job at the point of attack than you would expect.
Jokic actually does his job in the defense better than
you would expect, which is him coming up high out
of that drop and kind of it's almost like a
catch head where he's like kind of catching that driver.
(20:47):
But there's no doubt that they offer less rim resistance
than most teams, and so there will be you know,
pocket passes to Bam where it seems like he finishes
easily over the top of Aaron Gordon kind of roll
into the rim, or or Jimmy kind of uses a
head fake or a counter move to kind of get
past Jokic and then just kind of glides to the
rim for an easy layer. There's gonna be some moments
(21:08):
like that. I also think with the way that Denver's
pick and roll coverages work, some of these skip passes
to the weak side to shooters will work. Carson did
a good job breaking down just like the sheer amount
of shooting that Miami has. Mimi does a really good
job of keeping threats off the ball, so that like
when you make those defensive commitments to certain spots, the
spots on the floor, they can consistently make you pay.
(21:30):
I look at two specific areas offensively, those skip passes
to the shooters and then a lot of the stuff
that Lebron James was doing matchup hunting. I think we'll
see a lot of that from Jimmy Butler in this series.
So if you guys noticed, like one of the ways
that the Lakers confronted that coverage from Denver was just
running these ghost screens with Austin Reeves to try to
(21:53):
get Jamal Murray onto Lebron or to get him to
linger on Lebron too much where Austin Reeves was able
to get a shot. And one of the ways they
countered that was they started talking Jamal Murray away on
Dennis Schroeder and D'Angelo Russell, who D'Angel Russell just completely
crumbled in the series mentally and couldn't make a shot,
and Dennis Schroeder is too slow of a release and
(22:13):
can't shoot off the move, So it kind of mitigated
that problem. All of these shooters that are going to
be on the floor for Miami, whether that's Max Strus
or Gabe Vincent or Duncan robinsoner or Caleb Martin, they're
all going to be players that can shoot on the move,
and so that will put Denver in a little bit
of a predicament where they're gonna have no choice but
to put Jamal Murray on a guy who's capable of
(22:34):
making them pay and pick and pop situations. So I
do think we'll see a lot of Jimmy Butler matchup attacking.
He had seven post ups and ISOs in the two
games the season, scored nine points on him. Ironically, the
ones that he didn't succeed super well on I thought
were the Jokic possessions where he tried to iso Jokic.
Jokic does a pretty good job of anticipating his moves
(22:56):
and baiting him into long contested jump shots, but he
had a lot of success attacking Michael Porter Junior. He
attacked Jamal Murray as well for those classic little short
jump shots that he's been hitting this entire playoff run.
So they're gonna have offensive moments. Their biggest advantage is
Jimmy Butler is basically just another version of Lebron, which,
by the way, I thought Lebron outplayed Anthony Davis in
the last round. I thought it was the one round
(23:18):
in this playoff run where Lebron outplayed ad. I thought
a d outplayed him in the previous two rounds. So
that specific type of player, that big playmaking forward is
the specific type of player that can give the Nuggets
some problems. But it's just like juxtaposed with what the
Nuggets do, it's like they're just gonna get one hundred
and twenty points, So where are you getting your one
(23:39):
hundred and twenty points?
Speaker 4 (23:40):
Like where you know?
Speaker 2 (23:41):
That's why I said to my show, like they're gonna
need some sort of other world the offensive contribution. I
watched all of bam Adebio's post ups and ISOs against Jokic.
He had a couple quick moves in there that looked okay,
but it's a lot of him settling for those tough,
fadeaway jump shots in the lane that he's just not
making right now. And he seems to have completely lost
his confidence after what happened in that Boston series, after
(24:03):
he smoked that hook shot right at the rim there
in the a second half of Game seven. So yeah,
it's just I just don't see a universe where that
advantage is enough. And Carson, you mentioned this, and I
think this has been the most important thing about Denver.
They have been the team that doesn't seem susceptible to
the ebbs and flows of desperation like they like. I've
(24:24):
seen them face desperate teams and consistently play to the
same level. From an efforts stame point, they would have
swept Phoenix if it wasn't for Devin Booker undergoing an
unlike literally an out of body experience as a pull
up shooter. So I think a sweep is on the table.
I can't pick a sweep because I've been so wrong
about Miami in this playoff front and I refuse to
make that mistake again. But like I, let's just put
(24:46):
it this way. I have a flight to Bozeman, Montana
for a relaxation trip away from the Arizona Heat after
Game six, and I thoroughly expect to be able to
make that flight without having to work a Game seven.
That's where I'm at right now, So from there, let's
move on. Obviously, we have two players in this series
that are kind of regarded as upper echelon players but
(25:11):
are missing the ultimate achievement, which is the NBA Finals.
And I said this on my show, but like to me,
the Finals are so sacred, and every year when we
get to this time and I see the Finals Moniker
and the logo, and I see the commercials, and I
see the ABC intro video and all those different things,
I'm always reminded why this matters so much to me
(25:32):
and why I don't give, you know, I don't give
the place in the hierarchy of the league to guys
that haven't won a title yet, because I think this
is the ultimate test for a basketball player, and as
good as Jokic is, I think it's fair that I'm like, hey,
let me see you do it at this stage first,
you know, before we kind of give you that credit.
But no matter what, two weeks from now, we're gonna
(25:54):
be looking back and one of these guys, Jokich or
Jimmy Butler, is going to be stamped as an NBA
champion in the finals MVP. So my question for you, guys,
who has the most gain from an NBA Finals win.
Let's start with Logan.
Speaker 1 (26:08):
I think both of these guys have a lot to
gain from an NBA Finals win. Like you said, I
think a lot of people are gonna wake up if
Jokic gets this ring done to the fact that he
is the best player on planet Earth. And I understand,
I get it. You know, you don't want to crown
the guy before he gets a championship. I think Jokic
has been in this conversation for a while, but this
will finally give him some credence and some real weight.
Speaker 4 (26:28):
To an already really loaded resume.
Speaker 1 (26:31):
I mean this will propel him, I think to one
of the greatest centers of all time. I think Jimmy
probably if we're looking at this one to one. I
don't know how you can't say Jimmy though, I mean
just looking at what he's had to have gone through
through these playoffs circumstance wise, you look at not having
Tyler Hero, I mean a complete lack of offensive creation
(26:52):
reliably outside of Hero Like, yeah, man, I love the
depth here. I love all the guys, d Rob Lowry Martin.
They've played their asses off to this point, including Gabe Vincent.
But it's like it's it's not a finals caliber roster
to where of normal caliber. They slid the number one
seed and who I thought was the best player on
the planet coming into this, coming into these playoffs, I mean,
(27:15):
you know, Giannis missed a couple games, but they take
down the one seeded Bucks and then if Jimmy did
it again, I think a lot of this rides on
if Jimmy did this in this series. I mean, you're
slaying two of the biggest dragons in basketball, and Giannis
on Tetakumpo and Nicola Jokic at on top of that
that you already slayed the Boston Celtics, who I just
think are unequivocally a more talented team.
Speaker 4 (27:35):
This would be the.
Speaker 1 (27:36):
Most shocking finals win of all time. This would be
the most shocking run to the finals of all time. Like,
if Jimmy got it done, I think this would just
mean more than Jokic's ring. Like, don't I don't understand
what it means for Jokic because I think this propels
him to being one of the greatest centers of all
time and people like an undeniable level, finally in a
(27:57):
level where everyone has to wake up and realize that
he's one of the greatest center ever. But this is
one of the most improbable and difficult pass to the
title of all time. So if Jimmy got it done,
I think it would mean more he finally gets that
finals MVP, And we talked about this on our show.
Carson gave down a list of guys who have similar
resumes to Jimmy being the number one on two teams
(28:18):
that went to the finals, being a number one on
three teams that went to the Eastern or went to
the conference finals. Excuse me, it's already a short list.
Getting that ring would really really validate Jimmy and how
tough of a path it's been, So I think it
means slightly more for Jimmy. But I always love when
one when we have a matchup where finally somebody knew
is getting crowned.
Speaker 3 (28:38):
So it means a lot for both of these guys.
Speaker 1 (28:40):
But if Jimmy were to get it done, I mean
an eight seed winning of finals on this improbable of
a run, I think would probably mean a little more.
Speaker 5 (28:48):
It's interesting when you say that it would be the
most surprising title ever because I'm reflecting on it. This
is sort of an area of expertise of mine, I
like to think, and you're probably right because when you
think about the lower seeds to win it all, you
have the ninety five Rockets as the sixth seed, right,
but they were the defending champs.
Speaker 4 (29:08):
They had added Clyde Drexler. Can't put it in this tier.
Speaker 5 (29:10):
You have, for example, the sixty nine Celtics Russells last year.
They were just a forty eight win team, but they
had already won ten, so I think you can give
them the benefit of the doubt. Any seventies champ, there's
a lot of ones in there who are hovering around
fifty wins. But that's because it was the greatest era
of parody. And then this century people will say the
twenty eleven MAVs, and sure there was obviously a very
(29:32):
difficult path. They're going through the Thunder and the Lakers
and the Heat that was a fifty seven win team
with a top twenty player of all time. You have
the six Heat who were they were like a fifty
two win team. They had to beat the sixty four
win Pistons superhuman d way that was surprising. But this
is an eight seat that has been down for their
(29:54):
third most talented player these playoffs and does not have
that kind of all time talent at the time. So
I think it's Jimmy two because Jimmy's thirty three years
old and this is a chance for him, I believe,
to climb into the top fifty all time, and I
think he's already knocking on that door.
Speaker 4 (30:14):
I've gone through this on Nerd Sesh.
Speaker 5 (30:16):
But since the ABA NBA merger, he's now one of
just twenty five guys to be the clear best player
on three conference finalists and one of just twenty guys
to be the clear best player on two NBA finalists,
and he's one of nine guys to average twenty seven,
six and four on fifty seven percent TRU shooting in
multiple playoff runs with a minimum of ten games, joining Lebron,
(30:37):
Katie mj Kawhi, Kareem Jokic, Steph and Larry Bird. So
Jimmy's playoff resume largely based on these last four years,
but has to put him in those conversations because of
the consistency with which the best attributes of his game
have translated. His physical imposition, his ability to get into
the lane into those short mid range shots and kill
(30:57):
you their attack. This matches his playmaking, his defensive dominance.
All of that has made him a great playoff performer
in this latter stretch of his career.
Speaker 4 (31:07):
But if you were gonna ask me, well, who's more
likely to get back?
Speaker 5 (31:11):
I think it has to be the Nuggets, with the
infrastructure that they have, the level of talent they have,
their core being younger, and who is it more likely
that this is, like so far and away, the defining
thing of their career if they win, it's Jimmy Jokic
already has the two MVPs He's gonna have plenty more
cracks at it. Jimmy twenty twenty NBA Finals again put
(31:33):
himself in special territory. He's one of five guys ever
to average twenty six point eight assist a game in
the finals with Magic Steph MJ and who's the last one? Well,
I forget right now. But anyways, Jimmy continues to put
himself in these special categories in the playoffs, this would
be a different level. So I think it's Jimmy, but
(31:56):
I think Jokic cements himself is a top twenty player
of all time if they the title too.
Speaker 2 (32:02):
You know, this is a complicated question because I think
Jokic has an interesting dynamic in terms of what he
has to lose in this playoff series, this upcoming series,
like for like, both of them have a lot to
gain because Jokic is someone that goes from if he
los like if he wins it, he's the consensus top
player in the league, and that obviously is a huge accomplishment.
(32:26):
Jimmy Butler, even if he wins, is not going to
be considered the best player in the league. He uh
to me, Jimmy, Jimmy is a really interesting player in
NBA history, because like he never really has been on
that grade of a team, and he's consistently playing in
these late playoff rounds, in these huge games, in a
(32:48):
massive talent disadvantage, you know, and so like in a
weird way, like I actually like Jimmy kind of is
going to be regarded the way he's regarded regardless of
what happens, which is the dude who never was considered
like that true foundational superstar because he never was consistently
great enough in the regular season, but when it comes
(33:10):
to this level of NBA playoff basketball, he's on short lists.
Like what Carson was saying it is, there's no doubt
though that Jokic has the most to lose, and I
don't expect him to lose for the record, I mean,
I picked him in six, but I could see a
sweep potentially happening here. And I also have just no
(33:31):
doubt at all whatsoever that he's gonna play great.
Speaker 3 (33:33):
Like it it's like the stay.
Speaker 2 (33:34):
It's it reminds me of prime Lebron James, where it's
like he's just because he thrives so much as a
playmaker and making shots close to the rim, which by
the way, is exactly why Lebron was so consistently great
over the years. That's what makes me consistently great playoff
player like he is. Two foundational tenets of his game
are not dependent on night to night shot result, and
(33:56):
so he can bring a level of consistent positive impact.
That said, obviously, if the Heat somehow find a way
to steal the series, it's not a good look and
it would probably require a disaster of a defensive performance
from him. So he certainly has the most to lose.
But I mean, here's the thing. As far as I'm
concerned with Jimmy Butler, he will always be regarded the
(34:16):
way that he's regarded now, regardless of what happens, because
of the simple fact that, like everyone knows he's that
guy that like, it doesn't matter who's on his team,
it doesn't matter what his regular season record is. When
you have to see him for seven games, it's going
to be a royal pain in the ass. And that's
kind of like that would be the best way that
I'd break it down to my children one day if
they were like, Hey, who the hell is Jimmy Butler?
(34:36):
Why do we care about him? When he fairly when
he didn't average what Lebron averaged or whatever. You know,
that's what we're gonna say. So all right, I said
nuggets and six. Let's get picks from you guys. Let's
start with Let's start with Carson. Who do you pick
in this series? In how many games?
Speaker 5 (34:52):
I'm taking nuggets in five. I think that having the
best player alive and the best offense at the best
offense has proven to be insurmountable for everybody they've faced
so far. And I think it's the incredible offensive variety.
We talk about it in every phase, great transition offense,
dominant pick and roll offense, so good at creating looks
for guys with handoffs. With the level of shooting they
(35:13):
have and the level of screening from Yokic, it just
doesn't stop with them. I do think their size advantage matters.
Aaron Gordon's gonna have mismatches to attack. Again, they don't
have the kind of bodies to throw at Yokic. MPJ
is going to be getting a lot of relatively uncontested
looks just by rising up a guy who's five inches
taller than who's going to have to be on him.
(35:35):
And again, Denver's not susceptible to the kind of lapses
that everybody else Miami has played. Is they have the
highest floor in the NBA. Jokic as a player has
the highest floor in the NBA for the exact reasons
that you just laid out. Jason and Denver's got home
court the most significant home court advantage in the league.
They're thirty nine and four there when Yokic plays this year.
(35:57):
I just think they are better, and I think having
the best offense in the league, and I think an
all time great offense is the driving factor there. They
have an ir offensive rating right now over one nineteen
than any champion in NBA history, and that number has
been incredibly high in every matchup so far in these playoffs.
They just keep getting it done. It was higher as
(36:17):
the Lakers. It was one twenty two against the Lakers.
Like It's just ridiculous. So all due respect to the Heat,
I love Jimmy, they have proven me wrong over and
over again in this playoff run. I have consistently underestimated
their ability to dominate so convincingly in coaching and execution
and Jimmy being the best player on the floor that
they have pulled off these upsets. I do think that
(36:40):
that ends here, though.
Speaker 3 (36:42):
Yeah, I also wanted to pick the Nuggets sweep. Bejones
to call that one.
Speaker 1 (36:48):
I just Jimmy's proven me wrong a few too many
times for me to convincingly say that he's not going
to get a game.
Speaker 3 (36:53):
But I think you're exactly right. Guys.
Speaker 1 (36:55):
You talk about the historic offense. The Nuggets have an
offensive rating of nearly one twenty per hundred possessions. It's
the highest offensive rating through the conference finals before an
NBA Finals since the twenty seventeen Cavs. I mean they
are a special, special offense led by Jokichen Murray. Like
I just think for the Heat to win this, it
would take an uncharacteristically bad series from Denver in every
(37:18):
facet of the game and all of the categories that
Miami has won up to this. The Hustle plays the
outlier shooting, and I don't even know if we can
say it's really an outlier. They're a thirty nine percent
team from deep, but I think it would take a
superhuman effort from Jimmy.
Speaker 3 (37:32):
I would think it takes this.
Speaker 1 (37:34):
Team shooting over forty percent from deep on the whole
not taking game off, winning all the hustle plays, protecting
the rock every game. Like, I just think it would
take the Heat playing at a all time high, and
I think it would take the Nuggets just lapsing in
areas that they haven't lapsed this entire season. So yeah,
what's the new story, guys? I think the Miami heater
(37:55):
a little overwhelmed in this matchup. Maybe I'll be wrong again,
but I again think the Miami Heat are drastically out talented, overwhelmed,
and I don't think they can schematically scheme up anything
to give them an advantage.
Speaker 3 (38:07):
So yeah, I'm going Denver in five.
Speaker 1 (38:09):
And if Jimmy hadn't been doing this, I'd probably take
on the full logic side Denver to sweep.
Speaker 2 (38:15):
Yeah, it's interesting, the logan, the way you broke it
down is perfect. The all of the specific ways that
Miami's been winning are things that specifically will not work
against Denver, and that's what makes me worry about his sweep.
And again, like, you just know Miami's going to find
a way to compete in some of these games, but
(38:37):
it's just I could see it any sooner than later
as well.
Speaker 4 (38:40):
All Right, guys. So here's the deal.
Speaker 2 (38:42):
My guess is we might see you guys at some
point over the course of the series if it gets interesting,
if it's a sweep, maybe not. But I think the
day after I get back from Montana is the Draft.
I would imagine that at the very least, I'll see
you guys for some draft content on the day of
Always fun chopping it up up and talking basketball with
you boys. I appreciate it as always. To the listeners,
(39:04):
as always, we appreciate you guys. We will be back
tomorrow night after the final buzzer of Game one of
the NBA Finals to break it all down. I'm sure
the Nerd Sash guys will as well. We appreciate you, guys,
and we'll see you tomorrow.
Speaker 1 (39:35):
The volume
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