June 3, 2023 • 27 mins
Alex Monaco breaks down Game 1 of the NBA Finals between Jimmy Butler and the Miami Heat and Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets. First, Monaco discusses how he is still ALL IN on the Heat and is not even close to giving up hope just yet. Then, Monaco explains what went wrong for the Heat and what the Nuggets did to win Game 1 convincingly. Then, Monaco explains why he still believes in the Heat and why the Nuggets aren't as good as they seem. Finally, Monaco gets you ready and prepared to make your best bets on Sunday for Game 2 of the NBA Finals. #Volume #Herd
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
The Volume. What's up everybody. Alex Monico here, Thank you
for watching the money Line Monico podcast on the Volume
(00:23):
Sports YouTube channel. We are live Monday, Wednesday Friday wherever
you get your pods. We are on Amazon AMP streaming
Monday through Friday, making picks, making bets. It's us first
still books. I'm trying to win with you, so come
follow me at money Line Monico. Let's win together. Here
we go. Just a reminder you can catch me recording
(00:43):
this podcast live on AMP. AMP is a new live
radio app that lets you call in and chat with
me in person while I'm recording. Get the app on
Apples app Store and make sure you follow me at
Moneyline Monico to get notified when I go live. So
you're telling me there's a shit. Welcome back in to
another episode of money Line Monico Sports Gambling with money
(01:08):
Line Monico. I'm your host, Alex Monico, Waking up off
Andel sitting here on Heat Island, me LeBatard Ojo Sinko,
the three to Zho five community, a couple of our
devoted Amp engagement fan supporters of the money Line Monico
(01:30):
pot and that's it. Everybody else is jumping for Jerry
jolly joy this morning. But I am here to tell
you to grab a money line Monico volume sports mug,
put some coffee in it, sit back and listen to
me sell you a car you don't need. But once
(01:54):
I do, you may sit here at over five to
one and tell yourself this kid might have something. Now,
one oh four ninety three was the loss. Dover does
what they are supposed to do in that spot. Now
I'm gonna give you the numbers of the history of
(02:17):
what this spot was for Denver, so you can cool
down for a second. All right, Let the Miami a
Stentura humidity trickle off. Just take it inhale, take a
mister Deed's goose frabah exhale, all right. Historically, non first
(02:37):
round playoff teams where a team has more than a
week plus off versus an opponent who has just one
to three days off, literally to a t Denver Miami
game one. The Denver side of that trend seventeen and
five against the spread. On top of that, we said it,
(02:59):
and I knew it was a bit trapped, but I
still took a shot, and I'm okay with it. Teams
coming off of game sevens, which Miami did against Boston
is an abysmal thirty three and fifty three straight up,
just thirty eight percent of the time winning in Game
one's the following series that stats since nineteen eighty eight.
So it was to be expected. A Denver team that
(03:23):
was undefeated at home in the playoffs, that had not
lost at home since two months ago, with the third
most days off in the NBA Finals, We're gonna come
out and show out now. Positive takeaways all over the
board here from a Miami perspective, I gotta be honest.
(03:44):
Number one, a one oh four ninety three loss. Yes,
we took the Miami plus nine spread as well as
the money line, but the Miami plus nine this was
the biggest Larry David scenario I've ever seen. A guy
named Nikola Djovic. One consonant off from the best player
(04:04):
in the world this season, Nikolay Jokic dribbling down the court,
eleven point deficit. Miami gets the stop, we get a bucket,
we get a backdoor cover push. We'll take that. Scottie
van Good beat all day long. He hits it off
his knee like a mighty mites two k sixty eight
without a picture profile. I mean, I was livid, absolutely
(04:31):
through the moon livid we didn't cover that spread. I
gave you every reason in the book that we should
have covered that spread. But I'll tell you one thing.
An outscoring Denver thirty to twenty in the fourth quarter,
coming out the gate in the fourth quarter, when you
were done, you were done. You got outscored by nine
(04:52):
and then outscored by eight in the first half. You're
down by well into the double digit. You're down by
a ridiculous fifteen points. Then you lose the third quarter.
Most teams, most teams would have said, give me the
Charles Barkley oxygen. I need it. I'm gonna arrest my boys.
(05:17):
I'm gonna arrest my boys. What did Miami do? They
came out on an eleven zero fourth quarter run, They
won the fourth quarter by double digits, and we are
listening to Mike Malone on the podium talking about justifying
closing out series. Now, let me take it back a second.
If we were to sit here and educated, guess what
(05:38):
would have happened in that game. Denver wins the first quarter,
Denver ultimately wins the game. But what would you have
also educated guest that would have happened hypothesized if you will,
you would have sat there and said the Bill Belichick
halftime adjustments would have gone to the better coach. Well,
guess what they did. You look at the stats. The
(06:01):
numbers really in the weeds, and I don't want to
bog it down. I'm just gonna tell you right now,
Miami played a better second half. And there are a
couple things that happen on Miami side that simply will
not happen again. Now, the Big Two versus the Big Two,
Jokic and Murray did outplay Bam and Jimmy Buy a
(06:22):
significant margin. Now, Bam had his best game in his
last ten. Arguably he kept them in it in that
first half when they were battling. And remind yourself, this
game was thirty nine thirty three, thirty nine thirty three.
You know what I did my mouth wrong? The the
(06:42):
Heat were down seventeen to half. I apologize, thirty nine
thirty three. Denver goes on a seventeen to three run
and they're down in a sick manner. But the reality
is this was a very close competitive for twenty minutes
of the game. Denver won this game the way they
(07:03):
closed the second half of the second quarter. You don't
believe me. Go back and look. Literally, there was a
nineteen or twenty to three run in the second half
of the second quarter. Miami cut it to six, and
that's what's encouraging here. Then you start looking at role players. First,
role players, I tweeted out earlier this morning, Max Struce
(07:25):
owes us a donation to the city of Miami. Oh
for nine from three is a that's a misdemeanor in
the city of the three to zero five. You go,
oh of nine and oh of ten, Stop shooting the basketball.
It's not your night, my guy. Miami's not a one
(07:46):
trick pony behind the perimeter. Thish the rock, Max, So
that was incredibly discouraging. Then you look at Kayleb Martin,
who's coming off averaging nineteen per against Boston. Literally wrote
himself a paycheck for next year. Whoever wants to sign him,
whether it's not Miami or it is, and he goes
(08:07):
one of seven with a basket. Then Duncan Robinson, who
again we're not expecting a ton from but without Tyler Hero,
we need Duncan Robinson to be half of Tyler Hero.
Tyler Herro averages twenty give us ten. Duncan Robinson had
again a basket. So you look at Struce, Martin and
(08:29):
Robinson and they gave you six points. I mean that
is about as a swift kick to the mid section
as you're gonna get if you were on Miami and
we still almost covered. Let's keep looking at the painting,
shall we. Jimmy Butler goes thirteen points on six of
(08:51):
fourteen shooting. It was a bad night by Jimmy Bucket standards. Now,
just to put this in your noggin, the man had
two trip doubles in the bubble in his finals debut.
Only two men have had multiple triple doubles in the
history of the NBA Finals. The other man not named
Jimmy Butler's Lebron James. So I expect fully Jimmy Buckets
(09:13):
to bounce back. So we're sitting here, we lose a
game by eleven. All I'm seeing is it was Nuggets
domination Sun up to sundown. I'm not saying that the
Nuggets didn't dictate the pace, dictate the tempo. I'm also
not saying that Nikola Jokic didn't do what a master
class master craftsmen would do in that spot in the
(09:35):
first quarter, not even take the reins offensively. Instead, get
your teammates involved. Guy had five assists before the first
commercial break. He was surgical. Nikola Jokic was exquisite, he
was a wizard. It was Dumbledore minus the beard. He's
gonna average a triple double in this series. I'm okay
(09:56):
with it. I am still okay with it. Where I'm
not okay is Michael Porter Junior getting thirteen rebounds, Aaron
Gordon and Porter putting up thirty between the two of them.
I'm not okay with I am perfectly fine with Jokichen
Murray giving us fifty three between the two of them.
(10:18):
As matter of fact, I'll take that. I will take
fifty three points all series between the best two. Can
Bruce Brown, Kentavious Calwell, Pope, Michael Porter and Aaron Gordon
consistently beat You sit here, decompress with me, and ask
(10:38):
yourself that now I want you to pull up the
stat sheet because the NBA is always up to no
good and we always talk about the Donaghie fixes in well,
the NBA has lost millions of dollars on that Lakers
nugget sweet. And I'm not gonna sit here and go
down a Joe Rogan path with you, but I am
gonna tell you that the Miami Heat had two free
(11:00):
rows in Game one, and I was up early because
I watch everything. I study it all, so you don't
have to. Dan Patrick gave me his statu of the
Day STATA the day bop, the lowest amount of free
throws taken in the history of the NBA Finals happened
(11:20):
in front of our eyes. In Game one. The Miami
Heat from the free throw line took two attempts. Denver
had twenty. You mean to tell me, in a league
where you can make a sketch McGee case, that a
(11:42):
whistle could be blown or not on damn near every possession,
just like Holden could be called in the NFL, on
damn near every possession. That the Miami Heat got to
the free throw line one time, one time for two shots.
Bam Adebayo, You mean to tell me one foul on
the Heat? Did you see Djokis rugby player mauling Duncan
(12:08):
Robinson too the ground and they called a foul on Duncan. Look,
the NBA needed the Nuggets to win that game won.
The whole wide world is sitting here saying that the
Nuggets dominated you. Miami Sun up to sundown, you had
three role players give you six points, all of which
(12:29):
you average double figures. You got to the line one time. Now,
just to put this in your head, the history in
the finals, the fewest free throws ever shot was five.
The last time that happened was nineteen eighty three. It
was negative eight years old, negative eight. Fifth team ever
(12:53):
to shoot one hundred percent from the free throw line
in the NBA Finals, and it was two f f
thing two. I'm seething from that. I'm baking from that.
I'm furious. That is the game. Who beats anybody? Anybody
when you shoot a basket at the charity strikee. So
(13:14):
I'm very much bothered by that. But the reality is
Miami did not play a very good game. Miami was off.
Now we sit here with two days off, Miami gets
more adjusted to the altitude. Miami has tape. Now Miami
(13:34):
has a little bit of momentum from that fourth quarter.
Can you sit here and make a case I can
that they have a little momentum from outscoring them thirty
to twenty in the fourth quarter. Again, Mikey Malone spent
the beginning of his press conference talking about Kloe zing
cofees for Glenn Gary closes. So that's to be mentioned.
(14:00):
This is a Miami Heat team that makes nearly forty
percent of their shots from distance. All right. They led
the playoffs in three point efficiency around thirty nine percent.
They were well below their quota, well below their quota,
so tit for tat. Assists were in within three, rebounds
(14:23):
were within two, forty five to forty three. Turnovers in
this game were ten to eight. Points in the paint
were single digits between the two of them. Steals actually
went to Miami three point of three pointer efficiency went
to miam Field goal percentage ten percent better for the Nuggets,
(14:47):
and fourteen more free throws made and eighteen more free
throws attempted. Yeah, that's gonna get you a Game one win.
So again, Terry Benedict, Danny Ocean, Las Vegas was not
built off of winners. It was built off a sucker
(15:08):
free Friday. People like me that took Miami on the
money lie in Game one. But I'll tell you one thing. Miami,
a team that had lost three in a row since
last series in two months of basketball, a team that
didn't even lose two in a row in the entire
playoffs until the Celtics up three to zero and then
got three back this entire run. They will come back
(15:32):
with a significantly better Game two effort. And I encourage you.
I implore you to go to whatever shop you're pending
and think about just think about the value of plus
five point fifty for the Miami Heat to win this series.
Now you're probably asking yourself, they have to beat the
(15:55):
Nuggets four out of the next six times. How often
has that even happened? Well, top twenty three times in
the NBA Finals, a team goes down one to oh,
they come back and win. Matter of fact, it happened
last year Boston won Game one. Everyone hits the panic button,
the doctor Evil red button on some of their futures.
They abandoned the GSW ship. Golden State won the last
(16:17):
three games after going down two times in that series.
So again I remind you, we have more experience on
our side. Before yesterday twenty nine, Eric Spolster coached finals
to Mikey malone zero. We have three guys who played
in the NBA Finals in a Heat uniform, Bam Jimmy
and Hero you Donnis player coach, and you have Kyle
(16:41):
Lowry and Kevin Love who have championship rings and pedigree
in their back pocket. If we again think that Miami
is gonna lay down or Miami's gonna pull in La
Lakers and they're exhausted and lethargic, Jimmy Butler is not
lebron He is not a fed man. Thirty eight already
has the legacy defined. This is his legacy, this is
(17:03):
his Hall of Fame ballot, in my opinion, So if
you really think for any second that this team is
gonna mail it in or exhaust themselves or they're done, nah,
matter of fact, I didn't see an exhausted Miami team,
despite the altitude, the lack of missmass, rest advantage, etc.
(17:25):
And I said this on my Wednesday pod, and I
do not waiver. The history of the NBA and particularly
the Championship was built go by the decades off of
losing the finals, coming back and getting a beer pong
buttle revenge. And it will happen now if I lose.
I loose. We put two hundred and twenty three down
to win eleven racks on these two meeting. So I've
(17:46):
already had my finger on the pulse of this, of
this playoff run, I had a retire Lakers next futures
it went away. The practical logical purchase was heat Nuggets.
These are the two best teams from their conferences. So
as we decompress, feel good that Kyle Lowry showed up,
(18:09):
Feel good that as good as Aaron Gordon played, as
beautiful as Michael Porter's double double looks, those who were
both above quota and the role players as they should
have at home. For Denver stuck out a lot more
than my hands. But Miami has to take a long look,
(18:33):
and I did see obviously we know Denver dealing and
breaking down the zone a little bit better. But I
also did see Miami get some key stops at certain points.
Now going to my chat here, look looking at our
boys on Amazon amp, which I love, Sean Degarzon, my guy, Matt,
(18:57):
mister Ganza. I'm reading it all right now, we feel
great about we were still in the game. Jovi's killing
us on a back door. Caleb Martin unders were a
lock as soon as he did pregame interviews, all factual,
all true, and we shot terribly. So if Caleb Martin
(19:21):
cools off, then it's it's back to Miami heat culture.
Next man up. Somebody has to step up. Struce will
probably bounce back. I loved nineteen from Gay Vincent. That
was huge. And we do have one more card to
play that no one has prepped for. That everyone is
saying might be coming, might not, and that is we
(19:43):
need a hero with two rs. Tyler. Hero has already
begun practicing shooting. His wrist is good enough to flick it,
so there is one last card to be played. And
I imagine they'd probably roll him out at home on
the road in game two. That's what we're hearing, So
that is in our back pocket too. But I think,
(20:06):
and again, this line opened at plus nine last night,
moved down to eight and a half. Looking at the
fact that this was on a live line all the
way up to twenty and a half, and yes I nibbled,
because I'm an animal. Twenty and a half, it was
sixteen and a half at halftime. Always always count Miami,
(20:26):
not all the way out. I don't think Caleb Martin
is done. I think he had a bad night. I
do think those pregame interviews. Look, you give a role
player like that extra J cole shine. This guy's a
feature on the J cole track, not J cole Let's
let's not make him that. So that was a little problematic.
That was a bummer. The extra attention, the extra moment
(20:47):
for someone like that may rattle them. So yeah, good
point by Sean the chat. Some of these guys, they're
not bulletproof on the Miami side, despite being able to
lean on half the locker room be into this spot before.
But you have to tip your frow to the Nuggets.
They did what they were supposed to do. They protected
home court. But last thing I'll say here is they
(21:09):
won one game and Jokics pointed to his finger for
a ring. So let's all remember here that Nikola Jokic
pointed to his finger after one game in the Animal
Kingdom at amongst a bunch of dogs. You don't do that.
(21:30):
You just don't do that because the Jokics brothers are
not there to wwe royal rumble save you on the
court after that. So I expect the intensity, the physicality
and getting a goss damn whistle for Miami to be
on a serious uptick for game two, and if you
(21:52):
don't like eight and a half, I do feel bad
for you. I do not see how Miami doesn't at
least cover. I'm sprinkling on the money line. I'm going
down with Collins Avenue. I have no problem going down
with the three to zero five. I still believe in
this team. I am double Costanza dipping on plus five
point fifty. Interesting to note they didn't move the series
(22:15):
spread to two and a half yet, they just doubled
the juice, so it's still at one and a half
the original series spread line, just the juice changed, as
it would in any other series at any other time.
I do believe this is gonna be two to two
after four. I do believe anything Miami we take here
on out. We are on the minority side, but but
(22:41):
I do believe we are on the correct side. And
ultimately that's all that matters. So it's me against the world.
It's us in the AMP chat against the world. Jimmy
Buckets will be back. I think sprinkling on a triple
double at some point. Here is a play Jimmy Butler's
(23:02):
boards and assists to my guy in the chat. Garzon.
Absolutely a sprinkle is worth over five and a half,
over six and a half boards and assists respectively all
day long. And probably the best prop on the board
is Michael Porter over seven and a half rebounds. It's
not sexy, it's not glamorous, but the guy had straight
up stolen Jokid's boards away from us. We had fourteen plus.
(23:25):
He didn't get close to that. So if there's another
guy out there on a prop that's just you're not
gonna talk about. Michael Porter rebounds a sneaky, sneaky dub.
So we have a wonderful weekend to decompress. Everyone, get
some rest, everyone restore. We're coming back for Denver's jugular.
(23:48):
And nothing to me really stood out like Miami didn't
do everything to stay in that game and keep it competitive.
And I do believe that the Miami Heat are gonna
bounce back in game two. I will not be back
on the mic before game two. So I am going
(24:10):
out on the money line. I am taking the eight
and a half. Now the undercleared by a disgusting amount.
It was at two nineteen to close in game one.
They've already dropped it to two fourteen and a half.
Not sure I want to touch that, but you have
to feel good that a team that was averaging one
to eighteen through the beginning of the first three rounds
(24:30):
of the playoffs barely broke a hundred. That score was
a Miami kind of game and a Miami kind of dub.
So I really do feel actually as good after a
loss as we could feel. But remind yourself what you
(24:51):
consume in sports for your broadcasting. Enjoyment will get into
your noggin and absolutely affect you with beer goggles at
the window. Just know it, Just know it. Olly doing
this half my life. Don't let anybody sway you because
the gambling gut is real. Much love, don't forget the
(25:12):
hug you mothers, Thank you everyone for joining me live.
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The Volume. What's up everybody. Alex Monico here, Thank you
for watching the money Line Monico podcast on the Volume
(00:23):
Sports YouTube channel. We are live Monday, Wednesday Friday wherever
you get your pods. We are on Amazon AMP streaming
Monday through Friday, making picks, making bets. It's us first
still books. I'm trying to win with you, so come
follow me at money Line Monico. Let's win together. Here
we go. Just a reminder you can catch me recording
(00:43):
this podcast live on AMP. AMP is a new live
radio app that lets you call in and chat with
me in person while I'm recording. Get the app on
Apples app Store and make sure you follow me at
Moneyline Monico to get notified when I go live. So
you're telling me there's a shit. Welcome back in to
another episode of money Line Monico Sports Gambling with money
(01:08):
Line Monico. I'm your host, Alex Monico, Waking up off
Andel sitting here on Heat Island, me LeBatard Ojo Sinko,
the three to Zho five community, a couple of our
devoted Amp engagement fan supporters of the money Line Monico
(01:30):
pot and that's it. Everybody else is jumping for Jerry
jolly joy this morning. But I am here to tell
you to grab a money line Monico volume sports mug,
put some coffee in it, sit back and listen to
me sell you a car you don't need. But once
(01:54):
I do, you may sit here at over five to
one and tell yourself this kid might have something. Now,
one oh four ninety three was the loss. Dover does
what they are supposed to do in that spot. Now
I'm gonna give you the numbers of the history of
(02:17):
what this spot was for Denver, so you can cool
down for a second. All right, Let the Miami a
Stentura humidity trickle off. Just take it inhale, take a
mister Deed's goose frabah exhale, all right. Historically, non first
(02:37):
round playoff teams where a team has more than a
week plus off versus an opponent who has just one
to three days off, literally to a t Denver Miami
game one. The Denver side of that trend seventeen and
five against the spread. On top of that, we said it,
(02:59):
and I knew it was a bit trapped, but I
still took a shot, and I'm okay with it. Teams
coming off of game sevens, which Miami did against Boston
is an abysmal thirty three and fifty three straight up,
just thirty eight percent of the time winning in Game
one's the following series that stats since nineteen eighty eight.
So it was to be expected. A Denver team that
(03:23):
was undefeated at home in the playoffs, that had not
lost at home since two months ago, with the third
most days off in the NBA Finals, We're gonna come
out and show out now. Positive takeaways all over the
board here from a Miami perspective, I gotta be honest.
(03:44):
Number one, a one oh four ninety three loss. Yes,
we took the Miami plus nine spread as well as
the money line, but the Miami plus nine this was
the biggest Larry David scenario I've ever seen. A guy
named Nikola Djovic. One consonant off from the best player
(04:04):
in the world this season, Nikolay Jokic dribbling down the court,
eleven point deficit. Miami gets the stop, we get a bucket,
we get a backdoor cover push. We'll take that. Scottie
van Good beat all day long. He hits it off
his knee like a mighty mites two k sixty eight
without a picture profile. I mean, I was livid, absolutely
(04:31):
through the moon livid we didn't cover that spread. I
gave you every reason in the book that we should
have covered that spread. But I'll tell you one thing.
An outscoring Denver thirty to twenty in the fourth quarter,
coming out the gate in the fourth quarter, when you
were done, you were done. You got outscored by nine
(04:52):
and then outscored by eight in the first half. You're
down by well into the double digit. You're down by
a ridiculous fifteen points. Then you lose the third quarter.
Most teams, most teams would have said, give me the
Charles Barkley oxygen. I need it. I'm gonna arrest my boys.
(05:17):
I'm gonna arrest my boys. What did Miami do? They
came out on an eleven zero fourth quarter run, They
won the fourth quarter by double digits, and we are
listening to Mike Malone on the podium talking about justifying
closing out series. Now, let me take it back a second.
If we were to sit here and educated, guess what
(05:38):
would have happened in that game. Denver wins the first quarter,
Denver ultimately wins the game. But what would you have
also educated guest that would have happened hypothesized if you will,
you would have sat there and said the Bill Belichick
halftime adjustments would have gone to the better coach. Well,
guess what they did. You look at the stats. The
(06:01):
numbers really in the weeds, and I don't want to
bog it down. I'm just gonna tell you right now,
Miami played a better second half. And there are a
couple things that happen on Miami side that simply will
not happen again. Now, the Big Two versus the Big Two,
Jokic and Murray did outplay Bam and Jimmy Buy a
(06:22):
significant margin. Now, Bam had his best game in his
last ten. Arguably he kept them in it in that
first half when they were battling. And remind yourself, this
game was thirty nine thirty three, thirty nine thirty three.
You know what I did my mouth wrong? The the
(06:42):
Heat were down seventeen to half. I apologize, thirty nine
thirty three. Denver goes on a seventeen to three run
and they're down in a sick manner. But the reality
is this was a very close competitive for twenty minutes
of the game. Denver won this game the way they
(07:03):
closed the second half of the second quarter. You don't
believe me. Go back and look. Literally, there was a
nineteen or twenty to three run in the second half
of the second quarter. Miami cut it to six, and
that's what's encouraging here. Then you start looking at role players. First,
role players, I tweeted out earlier this morning, Max Struce
(07:25):
owes us a donation to the city of Miami. Oh
for nine from three is a that's a misdemeanor in
the city of the three to zero five. You go,
oh of nine and oh of ten, Stop shooting the basketball.
It's not your night, my guy. Miami's not a one
(07:46):
trick pony behind the perimeter. Thish the rock, Max, So
that was incredibly discouraging. Then you look at Kayleb Martin,
who's coming off averaging nineteen per against Boston. Literally wrote
himself a paycheck for next year. Whoever wants to sign him,
whether it's not Miami or it is, and he goes
(08:07):
one of seven with a basket. Then Duncan Robinson, who
again we're not expecting a ton from but without Tyler Hero,
we need Duncan Robinson to be half of Tyler Hero.
Tyler Herro averages twenty give us ten. Duncan Robinson had
again a basket. So you look at Struce, Martin and
(08:29):
Robinson and they gave you six points. I mean that
is about as a swift kick to the mid section
as you're gonna get if you were on Miami and
we still almost covered. Let's keep looking at the painting,
shall we. Jimmy Butler goes thirteen points on six of
(08:51):
fourteen shooting. It was a bad night by Jimmy Bucket standards. Now,
just to put this in your noggin, the man had
two trip doubles in the bubble in his finals debut.
Only two men have had multiple triple doubles in the
history of the NBA Finals. The other man not named
Jimmy Butler's Lebron James. So I expect fully Jimmy Buckets
(09:13):
to bounce back. So we're sitting here, we lose a
game by eleven. All I'm seeing is it was Nuggets
domination Sun up to sundown. I'm not saying that the
Nuggets didn't dictate the pace, dictate the tempo. I'm also
not saying that Nikola Jokic didn't do what a master
class master craftsmen would do in that spot in the
(09:35):
first quarter, not even take the reins offensively. Instead, get
your teammates involved. Guy had five assists before the first
commercial break. He was surgical. Nikola Jokic was exquisite, he
was a wizard. It was Dumbledore minus the beard. He's
gonna average a triple double in this series. I'm okay
(09:56):
with it. I am still okay with it. Where I'm
not okay is Michael Porter Junior getting thirteen rebounds, Aaron
Gordon and Porter putting up thirty between the two of them.
I'm not okay with I am perfectly fine with Jokichen
Murray giving us fifty three between the two of them.
(10:18):
As matter of fact, I'll take that. I will take
fifty three points all series between the best two. Can
Bruce Brown, Kentavious Calwell, Pope, Michael Porter and Aaron Gordon
consistently beat You sit here, decompress with me, and ask
(10:38):
yourself that now I want you to pull up the
stat sheet because the NBA is always up to no
good and we always talk about the Donaghie fixes in well,
the NBA has lost millions of dollars on that Lakers
nugget sweet. And I'm not gonna sit here and go
down a Joe Rogan path with you, but I am
gonna tell you that the Miami Heat had two free
(11:00):
rows in Game one, and I was up early because
I watch everything. I study it all, so you don't
have to. Dan Patrick gave me his statu of the
Day STATA the day bop, the lowest amount of free
throws taken in the history of the NBA Finals happened
(11:20):
in front of our eyes. In Game one. The Miami
Heat from the free throw line took two attempts. Denver
had twenty. You mean to tell me, in a league
where you can make a sketch McGee case, that a
(11:42):
whistle could be blown or not on damn near every possession,
just like Holden could be called in the NFL, on
damn near every possession. That the Miami Heat got to
the free throw line one time, one time for two shots.
Bam Adebayo, You mean to tell me one foul on
the Heat? Did you see Djokis rugby player mauling Duncan
(12:08):
Robinson too the ground and they called a foul on Duncan. Look,
the NBA needed the Nuggets to win that game won.
The whole wide world is sitting here saying that the
Nuggets dominated you. Miami Sun up to sundown, you had
three role players give you six points, all of which
(12:29):
you average double figures. You got to the line one time. Now,
just to put this in your head, the history in
the finals, the fewest free throws ever shot was five.
The last time that happened was nineteen eighty three. It
was negative eight years old, negative eight. Fifth team ever
(12:53):
to shoot one hundred percent from the free throw line
in the NBA Finals, and it was two f f
thing two. I'm seething from that. I'm baking from that.
I'm furious. That is the game. Who beats anybody? Anybody
when you shoot a basket at the charity strikee. So
(13:14):
I'm very much bothered by that. But the reality is
Miami did not play a very good game. Miami was off.
Now we sit here with two days off, Miami gets
more adjusted to the altitude. Miami has tape. Now Miami
(13:34):
has a little bit of momentum from that fourth quarter.
Can you sit here and make a case I can
that they have a little momentum from outscoring them thirty
to twenty in the fourth quarter. Again, Mikey Malone spent
the beginning of his press conference talking about Kloe zing
cofees for Glenn Gary closes. So that's to be mentioned.
(14:00):
This is a Miami Heat team that makes nearly forty
percent of their shots from distance. All right. They led
the playoffs in three point efficiency around thirty nine percent.
They were well below their quota, well below their quota,
so tit for tat. Assists were in within three, rebounds
(14:23):
were within two, forty five to forty three. Turnovers in
this game were ten to eight. Points in the paint
were single digits between the two of them. Steals actually
went to Miami three point of three pointer efficiency went
to miam Field goal percentage ten percent better for the Nuggets,
(14:47):
and fourteen more free throws made and eighteen more free
throws attempted. Yeah, that's gonna get you a Game one win.
So again, Terry Benedict, Danny Ocean, Las Vegas was not
built off of winners. It was built off a sucker
(15:08):
free Friday. People like me that took Miami on the
money lie in Game one. But I'll tell you one thing. Miami,
a team that had lost three in a row since
last series in two months of basketball, a team that
didn't even lose two in a row in the entire
playoffs until the Celtics up three to zero and then
got three back this entire run. They will come back
(15:32):
with a significantly better Game two effort. And I encourage you.
I implore you to go to whatever shop you're pending
and think about just think about the value of plus
five point fifty for the Miami Heat to win this series.
Now you're probably asking yourself, they have to beat the
(15:55):
Nuggets four out of the next six times. How often
has that even happened? Well, top twenty three times in
the NBA Finals, a team goes down one to oh,
they come back and win. Matter of fact, it happened
last year Boston won Game one. Everyone hits the panic button,
the doctor Evil red button on some of their futures.
They abandoned the GSW ship. Golden State won the last
(16:17):
three games after going down two times in that series.
So again I remind you, we have more experience on
our side. Before yesterday twenty nine, Eric Spolster coached finals
to Mikey malone zero. We have three guys who played
in the NBA Finals in a Heat uniform, Bam Jimmy
and Hero you Donnis player coach, and you have Kyle
(16:41):
Lowry and Kevin Love who have championship rings and pedigree
in their back pocket. If we again think that Miami
is gonna lay down or Miami's gonna pull in La
Lakers and they're exhausted and lethargic, Jimmy Butler is not
lebron He is not a fed man. Thirty eight already
has the legacy defined. This is his legacy, this is
(17:03):
his Hall of Fame ballot, in my opinion, So if
you really think for any second that this team is
gonna mail it in or exhaust themselves or they're done, nah,
matter of fact, I didn't see an exhausted Miami team,
despite the altitude, the lack of missmass, rest advantage, etc.
(17:25):
And I said this on my Wednesday pod, and I
do not waiver. The history of the NBA and particularly
the Championship was built go by the decades off of
losing the finals, coming back and getting a beer pong
buttle revenge. And it will happen now if I lose.
I loose. We put two hundred and twenty three down
to win eleven racks on these two meeting. So I've
(17:46):
already had my finger on the pulse of this, of
this playoff run, I had a retire Lakers next futures
it went away. The practical logical purchase was heat Nuggets.
These are the two best teams from their conferences. So
as we decompress, feel good that Kyle Lowry showed up,
(18:09):
Feel good that as good as Aaron Gordon played, as
beautiful as Michael Porter's double double looks, those who were
both above quota and the role players as they should
have at home. For Denver stuck out a lot more
than my hands. But Miami has to take a long look,
(18:33):
and I did see obviously we know Denver dealing and
breaking down the zone a little bit better. But I
also did see Miami get some key stops at certain points.
Now going to my chat here, look looking at our
boys on Amazon amp, which I love, Sean Degarzon, my guy, Matt,
(18:57):
mister Ganza. I'm reading it all right now, we feel
great about we were still in the game. Jovi's killing
us on a back door. Caleb Martin unders were a
lock as soon as he did pregame interviews, all factual,
all true, and we shot terribly. So if Caleb Martin
(19:21):
cools off, then it's it's back to Miami heat culture.
Next man up. Somebody has to step up. Struce will
probably bounce back. I loved nineteen from Gay Vincent. That
was huge. And we do have one more card to
play that no one has prepped for. That everyone is
saying might be coming, might not, and that is we
(19:43):
need a hero with two rs. Tyler. Hero has already
begun practicing shooting. His wrist is good enough to flick it,
so there is one last card to be played. And
I imagine they'd probably roll him out at home on
the road in game two. That's what we're hearing, So
that is in our back pocket too. But I think,
(20:06):
and again, this line opened at plus nine last night,
moved down to eight and a half. Looking at the
fact that this was on a live line all the
way up to twenty and a half, and yes I nibbled,
because I'm an animal. Twenty and a half, it was
sixteen and a half at halftime. Always always count Miami,
(20:26):
not all the way out. I don't think Caleb Martin
is done. I think he had a bad night. I
do think those pregame interviews. Look, you give a role
player like that extra J cole shine. This guy's a
feature on the J cole track, not J cole Let's
let's not make him that. So that was a little problematic.
That was a bummer. The extra attention, the extra moment
(20:47):
for someone like that may rattle them. So yeah, good
point by Sean the chat. Some of these guys, they're
not bulletproof on the Miami side, despite being able to
lean on half the locker room be into this spot before.
But you have to tip your frow to the Nuggets.
They did what they were supposed to do. They protected
home court. But last thing I'll say here is they
(21:09):
won one game and Jokics pointed to his finger for
a ring. So let's all remember here that Nikola Jokic
pointed to his finger after one game in the Animal
Kingdom at amongst a bunch of dogs. You don't do that.
(21:30):
You just don't do that because the Jokics brothers are
not there to wwe royal rumble save you on the
court after that. So I expect the intensity, the physicality
and getting a goss damn whistle for Miami to be
on a serious uptick for game two, and if you
(21:52):
don't like eight and a half, I do feel bad
for you. I do not see how Miami doesn't at
least cover. I'm sprinkling on the money line. I'm going
down with Collins Avenue. I have no problem going down
with the three to zero five. I still believe in
this team. I am double Costanza dipping on plus five
point fifty. Interesting to note they didn't move the series
(22:15):
spread to two and a half yet, they just doubled
the juice, so it's still at one and a half
the original series spread line, just the juice changed, as
it would in any other series at any other time.
I do believe this is gonna be two to two
after four. I do believe anything Miami we take here
on out. We are on the minority side, but but
(22:41):
I do believe we are on the correct side. And
ultimately that's all that matters. So it's me against the world.
It's us in the AMP chat against the world. Jimmy
Buckets will be back. I think sprinkling on a triple
double at some point. Here is a play Jimmy Butler's
(23:02):
boards and assists to my guy in the chat. Garzon.
Absolutely a sprinkle is worth over five and a half,
over six and a half boards and assists respectively all
day long. And probably the best prop on the board
is Michael Porter over seven and a half rebounds. It's
not sexy, it's not glamorous, but the guy had straight
up stolen Jokid's boards away from us. We had fourteen plus.
(23:25):
He didn't get close to that. So if there's another
guy out there on a prop that's just you're not
gonna talk about. Michael Porter rebounds a sneaky, sneaky dub.
So we have a wonderful weekend to decompress. Everyone, get
some rest, everyone restore. We're coming back for Denver's jugular.
(23:48):
And nothing to me really stood out like Miami didn't
do everything to stay in that game and keep it competitive.
And I do believe that the Miami Heat are gonna
bounce back in game two. I will not be back
on the mic before game two. So I am going
(24:10):
out on the money line. I am taking the eight
and a half. Now the undercleared by a disgusting amount.
It was at two nineteen to close in game one.
They've already dropped it to two fourteen and a half.
Not sure I want to touch that, but you have
to feel good that a team that was averaging one
to eighteen through the beginning of the first three rounds
(24:30):
of the playoffs barely broke a hundred. That score was
a Miami kind of game and a Miami kind of dub.
So I really do feel actually as good after a
loss as we could feel. But remind yourself what you
(24:51):
consume in sports for your broadcasting. Enjoyment will get into
your noggin and absolutely affect you with beer goggles at
the window. Just know it, Just know it. Olly doing
this half my life. Don't let anybody sway you because
the gambling gut is real. Much love, don't forget the
(25:12):
hug you mothers, Thank you everyone for joining me live.
We'll see you next week. Download the free Angie mobile
app today or visit Angie dot com a ngi dot com.
This is a perfect site for someone like myself who
had to move cross country working in the sports world.
On at don I'm talking about handy people, landscaping, plumbing,
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Angie makes it easy to research, compare, and hire pros
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