The Favorites - NFL Best Bets Conference Championships

In this extra prickly episode of the podcast, producer Matt Mitchell shouts at Action Network NFL experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter about his Buffalo Bills and their date with destiny. Later on, Chad and Simon break down the AFC and NFC Championship games, with two tickets to the Super Bowl (and Mitchell's precarious sanity) hanging in the balance. We also get their takes on hedging, their leans on the totals, and much more. #Volume #Herd

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:08):
Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
sixty five.

Speaker 2 (00:13):
We are part of the.

Speaker 1 (00:14):
Volume podcast Network. I am Chad Millman of the Action Network.
I am live from my time of John Home Studio,
and I'm joined as always by my co host, my companion,
Michael Padre might beff professional better Sigmon Hunter et Osymon.

Speaker 3 (00:31):
Chad, how are we doing, brother?

Speaker 1 (00:33):
I'm so glad we're starting the show because from the
time we got on fifteen minutes ago until literally the
second we went live, Matt Mitchell did not shut the
fuck out. Loved it, like fifteen straight minutes of talking.
What it was like listening to my mother in law

(00:55):
on hyperspeed, who can cover one thousand different topics in
the span of fifteen minutes without anyone even responding, making
eye contact, looking up, asking a question. I want to
have Matt Mitchell come on the show today to talk
about the bills. I know he's made a massive bet
on the bills. I'm a little nervous about it because

(01:16):
I know he likes to keep the shows tight and
that might add forty five fucking minutes.

Speaker 2 (01:20):
To the show. So we'll have to see how we're.

Speaker 1 (01:22):
Feeling when we get to the Chiefs Bills game to
see if we want to add Matt Mitchell and his
nonsense on the show. Today, Today's our Conference Championship Weekend
Best Bets episode. As we did last week, we will
not only be reviewing the sides for this weekend's games,
we are adding any other bets we like as well,

(01:42):
hopefully going to give folks more to look forward, root forward,
think about this weekend. We will also be including the
best options for our Foxhoul as well as our Tommy
John Big Balls bet of the week, and we will
just of course discuss Simon's the Biggest Bets play, Scoot Roulette,
all that jazz plus Today, I do want to have
a conversation about two very important topics. One hedging. I

(02:05):
mentioned this on Tuesday. Simon and I both gave out
Super Bowl matchup bets on this very show before the
season began. We each have one AFC team and one
NFC team from those bets still alive, so we got
a shot that may be true for a lot of you.
So how do we hedge if we want to? Do
you want to cash out? I got that question on Twitter. Also,

(02:28):
I want to talk about Super Bowl futures. There's four
teams left if you choose to get some value before
the big game.

Speaker 2 (02:36):
Now is the last chance.

Speaker 1 (02:39):
As we were last Sunday, we will be on Sunday
night after the end of the second game. This is
the Bills Chiefs this weekend. We will come on live
after that first look at Super Bowl review of what
happened during the day. Bets are rolling in lines or moving,
decisions need to be made. As our volume podcast, Boss

(02:59):
Colin I Heard likes to say.

Speaker 4 (03:01):
There's a sea of money out there.

Speaker 1 (03:03):
As a reminder, The Favorites podcast is presented by Bet
three sixty five and now new Bet three six five.
Customers get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets
when you bet five dollars, sign up using promo code Favorites,
deposit ten dollars. Place a bet for five dollars to
get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets. Those
bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props,

(03:24):
futures and more. Whatever the moment, it's never ordinary. I
Bet three sixty five must be twenty one or older.
In present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina,
New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia or eighteen and older in Kentucky.
Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler or one eight
hundred bets off in Iowa terms. Conditioned restrictions apply all right,

(03:46):
as always on Thursdays, we'd like to hear are the
wise guys that are responding to our Tuesday conversation. Fewer games,
but still lots of opinions. We are very influential. Lines
have already moved based in our conversations.

Speaker 2 (04:00):
Get some opinions from the wise guys. Simon, let's do
shove calls.

Speaker 3 (04:07):
Hello, who's there? I'm talking Rain.

Speaker 1 (04:11):
Rain telephone range, somebody saying maybe what you do man?

Speaker 3 (04:16):
Yeah? Interesting? Weeks shocked.

Speaker 5 (04:18):
I thought it was gonna be everyone on our side,
to be honest with you, Chad. It felt like we're
going up against two very public dogs. But there is
some really smart money on the other side, and we
can start the commanders guys, I respect taking a position
on that side, and I think it really does come
down to Hurts his health. They think they are getting
a good number here because Hurts is not gonna do
what he can normally do, and I still think it's

(04:40):
being overrated. It's like they don't rely on Hurts. This
is not a team built around Hurts. This is the
team built rely.

Speaker 3 (04:46):
On the running games.

Speaker 5 (04:46):
So definitely a lot of arguments right now about that
with I'm being told that I'm over valuing Hurts and
not understanding his injury and they think they're getting a
great number, and the bo backed that up. Most bookmakers
I've talked to it's heavy, heavy, Like there was really
heavy early money on the Eagles. Now it's basically all Washington.

(05:08):
Like they're all taking a six. It's not even close
on the money line. It's all money is coming in
on the money line for this Washington team. So yeah,
I can't dive to that, because that honestly makes you
feel even better, like the books needing a home favorite.
Like even when I'm talking to the bookmakers, they are
laughing about it because again, Chiefs are basically the same
exact spots as the Eagles. It's all bills money. All

(05:30):
the money coming in right now is bills. All the
teasers are on the bills. So yeah, if you're like
me and you talk to bookmakers and you go to
a lot of different books.

Speaker 3 (05:39):
They're very happy right now in their position to be
in right.

Speaker 5 (05:42):
They are in the position of they need two home
favorites to cover and win, and on the futures market,
the best outcome for them is the Chiefs. The Chiefs
have never I mean Evan could probably test this. I
don't think they ever got above plus seven hundred for
the entire season. So this is a team that basically
never got really high odds. On the flip side, if
the Commanders make it to the Super Bowl, they'll be crushed.

(06:03):
Like that's a position that you know, Joe Schmoe down
the street that bet them at one hundred to one
or one hundred and fifty to one can be able
to hedge, and professionals will build aheage. So it is
interesting talking to the perspective of the book makers and
the perspective of the professionals that you know, I get
why they love the Bills, I get why they love Commanders.
It's a coin flip type of game. But I do
think their numbers have overrated both those sides. So yeah,

(06:26):
I'm looking forward to diving to these games even more
chat because it does seem like, you know, coming into it.
I was a little nervous our positions, you know, me
and chat I don't love betting favorites, especially chalk favorites,
not chalk favorites. In this spot, we are definitely taking,
shockingly the underdog kind of favorites in the spot of
everyone's backing the dogs on the road and we are
actually the ones going off trail here and taking their

(06:48):
home favorites, which is pretty shocking position to be in.

Speaker 2 (06:50):
All right, I love it.

Speaker 1 (06:51):
That is a great tea out for what we're going
to talk about, because it's Washington and Philadelphia. The number
at bet three sixty five is minus six. The total
is forty seven and a half. I have seen this
at six and a half in some spots. But guess what,
right off the bat.

Speaker 2 (07:10):
Our Big Ball Bet of the Week.

Speaker 1 (07:15):
Presented by Tommy John. If you've got the balls, Tommy
John has the support great game, start with great underwear.
Tommy John makes the greatest.

Speaker 2 (07:27):
Man number six.

Speaker 1 (07:28):
Like I said, tighter to six and a half already
there in some spots. I do want to give you
one funny story. As a Philly native, you can appreciate this.
So my younger son, my eighteen year old, has discovered
It's Always Sunny and he's been watching it constantly lately.

(07:54):
And if I'm in the same room with him at
the same time and like he's just watching it, I
end up sitting down and watching a few episodes and
like he's in the beginning, he's only in season two, right,
So it's going back.

Speaker 2 (08:05):
Eighteen nineteen years.

Speaker 1 (08:07):
And the episode that came on yesterday that I watched
with him, The Gang Gets Invincible.

Speaker 2 (08:15):
I don't know if you remember.

Speaker 1 (08:16):
This episode, of course, but this is the episode where
Mac and Dennis and de try out for the Eagles,
because it's right when the movie Invincible came out and
everybody in Philly, every fucking Philly scumbag decided they're Vince
Papali and they can go try out for the Eagles
and they're gonna make the Eagles.

Speaker 3 (08:39):
Lies moving philos.

Speaker 4 (08:40):
Come on, get on the bus bus. What the hell
are you talking about? The bus that takes you to
the field? Oh wait, I thought we were going to
be playing on the link.

Speaker 5 (08:47):
You think, you dip shit's going to play on the
same field that champions play on.

Speaker 3 (08:50):
Where are we going? We're going to a shitty high
school in Bucks County gets your ass on the bus,
straight to the bus, Straight to the bus.

Speaker 1 (08:59):
So on the show Shoh, they have a tryout that
is inspired by Vince for Polly making it, and they say,
we got to do it because the New Kids on
the Block.

Speaker 2 (09:08):
Movie about the guy making the team, you know, because
Mark Wahlberger wrote for and So.

Speaker 1 (09:14):
So I'm watching it and in the middle of it,
I don't say anything about it. In the middle of it,
my kids says to me, didn't you like do something
about some dude who tried up for the Eagles. I'm like, yeah,
I wrote the book Invincible. It's on a shelf ten
feet from where you're sitting right now. I wrote it

(09:36):
when you were just born so we could put food
on the fucking table. I cannot believe you cannot even
remember how many times we've talked about this book and
you cannot remember that I wrote the book Invincible.

Speaker 2 (09:49):
No, there's no respect in my house, Simon.

Speaker 5 (09:53):
I love that you watch UP. So a great episode
cameo by Donovan McNabb. Yeah, Frank Reynold's getting stuck in
a back after I should say.

Speaker 2 (10:00):
Oh my god.

Speaker 1 (10:01):
On the Green Man and by the way, it wasn't
a Donovan McNabb cameo.

Speaker 2 (10:06):
That's the joke, I know, because it's so good.

Speaker 1 (10:12):
It's such a good show, Like I haven't watched it
in a while because, like I feel like I was
just caught up.

Speaker 2 (10:17):
Man.

Speaker 1 (10:18):
It is so funny. It makes me love Philly. You
know how much I love Philly. It makes me love
Philly even more.

Speaker 6 (10:24):
I'm the trash man.

Speaker 1 (10:27):
And I love the Eagles even more. This is our
big Balls. I kind of feel like it might need
to be our foxhole too. We might need to double
down here the same way we did with the chiefs
On Simon says and exact because if all this money
is starting to come in the Commanders, it really does
feel like we're starting to be alone here.

Speaker 3 (10:47):
It's God damn it.

Speaker 5 (10:50):
You get into this time of year and it's really
is opinion heavy, and guys try to just throw the
numbers out, which I would love to make fun of
them and everything like that.

Speaker 3 (10:58):
But I do that too.

Speaker 5 (10:59):
Like that Bill's spot last week, Chad was totally right
in his thinking of the Bills were not the better
team that that. You know, Raven's team were better on
paper in almost every metric, but I kept saying, you
had to throw the numbers out. And this is the
type of game where there's plenty of guys making their statement,
taking their position on this Washington team, and it has

(11:19):
the same view of it. They know that this is
not as good of a team as the Eagles on paper.

Speaker 3 (11:24):
They know that this is, you.

Speaker 5 (11:26):
Know, I don't want to say a fluke, but it
is a fluke. Come on, let's be real, people, this
is the sixth seed. We know how rare this is.
I think Evan had an.

Speaker 2 (11:34):
Amazing See it was a rookie quarterback, right.

Speaker 5 (11:37):
Evan had an amazing piece about this. How it's like this,
this has never happens. And obviously, as an Eagles fan,
it doesn't get much better. I'm my team is literally
a game away from beating a rookie quarterback six seed
at home to make the super Bowl. You literally can't
have an easier position. The Chiefs got to play the
freaking Bills and vice versa. Like that's that. That's usually

(11:57):
whe you're getting conference championship games. You don't usually play
a rookie quarterback with a team that is just happy
to be there, right, This insane run that they've been on,
and yeah, it's been interesting breaking down the game, and
especially this week, all I'm really doing is watching a film, honestly,
Like that's that's what's so fun. When there's just two
games left, you can really dive into both teams and

(12:18):
obviously if you listen to show a year, I mean,
me and Chatt have talked adnows them about how much
we love Daniels and this Washington team and when we
bet them all season, we love them. I mean, I've
talked so much about how impressed I was with him,
and you know, this is a game though, you have
to really go back to what me and Chat talked
about their two previous games against the Bucks and the
lines and why they did win those games. Yes, Daniels

(12:40):
played incredible. It was all about turnovers, right, That to
me is at the end of the day, that was
the key to those games. And we've seen this playoffs
really dictated by that. Now that's not shocking anybody, right,
that's how it is usually. But you've seen teams play
these incredibly conservative born offenses. Three out of the four
teams have done that style this playoffs and have gotten
to this position. Now you know Daniels doesn't play that

(13:02):
way right. He's a high risk, highvariance type of player.
He's willing to push the ball downfield in those fifty
to fifty balls, he's willing he does.

Speaker 1 (13:08):
He makes a lot of bad throws, like he's a
really right and he's incredibly accurate. I don't mean to
cut you off, but like, he's incredibly accurate, but he
makes a lot of downfield throws that if you're watching
it on television, the camera pans and these are millimeters
away from picks.

Speaker 5 (13:27):
And when I found my watching this film, especially going
back to the earlier games, is how cool he is
in the pocket.

Speaker 3 (13:33):
And we talked about that.

Speaker 5 (13:34):
We were like, eventually he's gonna take a hit and
he won't be so calm cool in the pocket like
he was, and he did. It might have been your
Guys Bears game where he basically got rocked. I don't
know if his ribs got broken or bruised, but you
saw there was a three four game period there where
it was different, Like you could see that he after
that hit, it was different. And now he's back to
what he was though once he healed up and got

(13:55):
that confidence back, he's back to what he was in
week three four, Like that really confidence the pocket just I.

Speaker 3 (14:02):
Can't get over how above his age he does play.

Speaker 5 (14:05):
I know a lot of people have talked about this
week where it's like, you know, he might be a
rookie on paper, but he has like it feels like
a year five betteran mentality. He's just so smart, makes
the right decisions when he needs to, and yeah, when
you break it down, he'll be the X factor in
this matchup. But this really, like me and Chat talking,
this number really should be seven to seven and a half,
Like the fact that you know Golf who's never done

(14:27):
anything in the playoffs, honestly, Like this is the guy
with the lines that you know he has choked with
them and you could say, well he got to superl
the rams.

Speaker 3 (14:35):
I mean, come on, let's be serious here.

Speaker 5 (14:38):
It's it's kind of interesting where the books got that number.
He up to nine and a half and now against
an Eagles team that to me is better on paper.
They're healthy defensively, they can have all the guys offensively,
They're only a six point.

Speaker 3 (14:51):
Favorite against this Washington team.

Speaker 5 (14:53):
So, I mean, me and Chat were talking about how
this is an inflated line for this Washington team, that
this has moved too much. That's what we're talking because
I had a lot of people ask about that. Why
we think this is peak value for Washington. Just breaking
it down very simple. You can see how much respect
the books giving them and vice versa. They're in a
happy position to be because right now, like I said,

(15:13):
they need the Eagles. All this money is pouring in
on Washington and you know, me and Chat, honestly, Chat,
I thought this would be six and a half seven
when we came on today's show, So you know the
fact that at night, like I've been checking it, there
is you see the resistance from professional betters, Like a
couple of books two hit six and a half quickly
bumped down to six. So it's clear that there is

(15:35):
some really smart money keeping this number down. And I
think it does come back to the hurts injury to me, Like,
that's why I get why the profession was saying that,
because on one side, you have a quarterback that is
playing at a high level and he is fully healthy.
On the flip side, you have a quarterback that the
professionals and public have questions about and he's got a
bad knee. So that to me makes sense about the

(15:55):
resistance on this number. But like I just said to me,
that's another reason for me and you, I feel we're
getting great value on this line where it's just too
much hype, too much love for a Washington team that
has a couple little bit of a fluky fluky wins here.
Now they're being praised as one of the best teams
in the NFL.

Speaker 1 (16:10):
Also, going outside, it's it's just a different game for
everybody when you're playing outside. And I'm not saying the
Commanders can't handle weather, they're an out to our team.
But when you're playing indoors, you go forward on fourth
downs and you're going against a team that is playing
basically second and third stringers across the board defensively, and

(16:33):
you force some turnovers early in the game. You're just
playing from a different point of view, a different perspective.
This Philadelphia team, to me, I thought.

Speaker 2 (16:44):
You nailed it. It's not really.

Speaker 1 (16:46):
About Jalen Hurts. It's about the offensive line and the
defensive line. And again we talked about this on Tuesday,
Sam Cosmy not playing it's kind of a big deal
because the strength of this Philly defense is what they
can do within the interior of the defensive line. Jalen

(17:07):
Carter is amazing. He is like he's Aaron Donald esque
this year in his ability to control a game and
impact the game as an interior defensive lineman. So like
him coming up to God against Jadon Daniels is going
to be really really daunting. Especially in this kind of scenario.

(17:30):
You gotta like, yeah, you can't. You can't take that
factor away.

Speaker 5 (17:36):
And we also talked about the Eagles have not played
their game yet, like they have not played a sound
perfect game like we were used to when they were
rolling mid season. On the flip side, Washington's coming off,
in my opinion, their best game of the season. Like
going back and watching that game, every little thing they
did kind of broke their way.

Speaker 3 (17:53):
The only really dumb mistake they made.

Speaker 5 (17:55):
Was that weird Mariota pitching trying to pitch the ball back.
And yeah, this is why I do give respect to
Dan Quinn. He went to Kingsbury whoever you went and
talked to me. He just said, we're not taking the
ball out of our best player's hand and losing this
game again. Like from now on, a fourth down no more. Bullshit,
dumb gimmick plays. We're gonna give the ball to Daniel's
only because that was the type of play where you're

(18:16):
just like, you're overthinking at Washington, what are you doing
in this type of big moment? And you know, the
rest of that game so sound, and you know, like
you just said, this Eagles game is outdoors. I have
moved to the over. Originally I like the under in
this matchup. I have flipped to the over, and just
because the number has moved too much and I basically
have this total forty eight and a half, so it's

(18:38):
only a point difference. Right right now is forty seven
and a half still showing valley to the over.

Speaker 3 (18:42):
And it really is all about what we just talked about.

Speaker 5 (18:44):
The weather now, if you live in the Northeast or
just an America in general, we're in a deep freeze
right now. It's absolutely awful outside. It's like ten degrees
in most places. It's gonna warm up by this week.
I don't know if you saw it, chat, it's supposed
to be in the mid forties come Sunday. Okay, no rain,
mid forties, Like you just said, both these teams are
from the same area. They're used to being out in

(19:05):
this cold. I don't think it's going to affect the
offenses like I did this past week with Eagles. I
don't think we'll see as many drops from the Eagles
insane from this Washing team. I think they'll be fine
playing these elements. But like you just said, the difference
will be Washington just played in Florida and then an
indoor game against Detroit like, so, this will be the
first time they are out.

Speaker 3 (19:23):
In the cold in the elements in the playoffs, and
you know, no.

Speaker 2 (19:27):
Go ahead, Sorry, Noah, go ahead.

Speaker 1 (19:30):
The one thing that worries me is that this Eagles
team is incredibly reliant on big plays, specifically big plays
from Saquon. We saw it in the Rams game, two
huge touchdown runs. I was at that Eagles Commander's game

(19:50):
in November where they were down most of the game
and the only reason they won that game is because
there were two long Saquon touchdown runs. That's kind of
been the theme of the year. We talked about as
rushing prop on Tuesday. It was one hundred and twenty
seven and a half by the time we were off
the show, and we talked about this on air. It
was already at one hundred and twenty nine and a half.

(20:13):
One other sports book, very public sports book, High Profile
sports Book yesterday announced that Saquon's rushing total at one
hundred and thirty is the highest rushing total they've ever
had for a prop. Do we worry that this team
is too reliant on big plays? Do we think big

(20:33):
plays are predictive? And are they something that you can
count on or are they totally random and that skews
our perception of the Eagles?

Speaker 3 (20:49):
Yeah.

Speaker 5 (20:49):
I would say if you have the number one offensive
line of football and all Pro and aj Brown, then
all Pro and Saquon probably gonna get big plays.

Speaker 3 (20:58):
I mean, that's just the honest truth. So I get
where you're coming from. Yeah.

Speaker 5 (21:02):
Ideally, do I want the Eagles to drive the field
and then all their red zone trips are touchdowns?

Speaker 3 (21:07):
That'd be great.

Speaker 5 (21:08):
But I mean people keep pointing to the fact that, oh,
the Eagles haven't been great in the red zone even
last week, right, they struggled in the red zone. No,
I don't really mind that. I don't worry about that
stuff too much. Like big plays can be inconsistent if
it's all wide receiver that to me be scary, right
if it was the Tyreek Hill type of deal where
it's like, well, if we don't have Tyreek Hill downfield,

(21:28):
then our offense kind of stalls, right, we need to
we rely on those big plays to move the ball downfield.

Speaker 3 (21:33):
The Eagles aren't that.

Speaker 5 (21:34):
I mean, they just the reason they have those big
plays numbers is because they wear teams out and eventually,
like we talked about, Saquon gets these teams in the
fourth quarter and that's when he breaks out for those
long runs. So you know the stats we gave out
on Tuesday about this Washington run defense and how bad
they are the second level, that just adds more fuel
to the fire of this team going to be hitting

(21:54):
big plays.

Speaker 3 (21:54):
I mean, it lines up for this Eagles team.

Speaker 5 (21:56):
So I told you my biggest worry here is going
to be same thing we had when I was betting
Washington against the Lions.

Speaker 3 (22:04):
It's the fourth down regression.

Speaker 5 (22:06):
Like it's we're at we're at historical numbers at this
point with the fourth down with this Washington team, and
it did come to bite us, like even that Bucks game, right,
they had a couple failed fourth downs and that Lions game.
We just talked about Mariota play. There are opportunities for
this Eagles team to get stops. And you know dan Quinn,
he's getting tons of praise right now, well deserved if

(22:27):
he goes for it on his own thirty five on
fourth down, right, say they're down seven in the second
quarter and he goes for it.

Speaker 3 (22:32):
There the Eagle stop them. Now they're up fourteen. Well
you look like.

Speaker 5 (22:36):
An idiot or will just be like, no, this is
who this guy's been all season. It's just been working.
So that's that's gonna be interesting part here in this game.
To me, it's gonna be another game where if Daniels
hits these fourth downs, yeah, they can stay in this
game easily. I Mean, we all know the track record
of you know, divisional opponents keeping games close in the spot.
But when you really dive into the numbers, this this

(22:56):
would really be an embarrassing loss for the Eagles. Like
all honestly, you were getting a rookie quarterback on a
team that is basically going to rebuild season. The fact
they come into your home stadium and win this playoff
game would be shocking just because across the line, like
we just talked about the d line matches up incredibly
against this O line of Washington Egos offensive line even

(23:18):
more so, I mean second level. All of it lines
up really well. We give tons of credit though, to Washington.
Like Bobby Wagner, he was left for dead. This man's
come in and made a huge difference to this team.
Zach Ertz, another guy left for dead, has come and
made like veteran presidents on this Washington team has been
huge and made these few different. So they do have
guys who've played in these big games, these big moments.
But this is an Eagles team that basically was in

(23:39):
a Super Bowl, you know, a year and a half ago.
So it's like we've seen time and time again in sports,
teams usually have to go through growing pains, and you
expect Washington someday they'll.

Speaker 3 (23:50):
Get to this level.

Speaker 5 (23:50):
Some day, they won't make a super Bowl. It would
be shocking for them to get there this early, like
they haven't gone through the pain that almost all teams
need to go through to get to that next level.
Even the all God we talk about Patrick Mahomes, he
needed to lose to Brady at home in that AFC
Championship game.

Speaker 3 (24:06):
Then he needed to lose the Super Bowl.

Speaker 5 (24:07):
I mean he did win it obviously against fort Niners,
but then he need to lose against Brady in the
Super Bowl eventually, like these these great quarterbacks all go
through it. We think Jane Dams will eventually be one
of these greats, but he has not gone through any
pain yet.

Speaker 3 (24:18):
Right, It's all been good. That's why you watch TV.

Speaker 5 (24:21):
Everyone's just loving this team, hype him up, making him
a top five quarterback in this league.

Speaker 3 (24:25):
I mean, I still can't get over with Chad. There's
sixteen to one next year in Super Bowl.

Speaker 5 (24:28):
Futures, this Commanders team, So it just it's all peaking
right now. They're the darling of the NFL. They beat
the one seed, a team that you know, people if
are unbeatable. And on the flip side of this, the
Eagles team, people have not believed them all the way.
I mean, you can go through it. People picked the
Rams to upset them just last week, like that was
a big bet by a lot of people. And you know,

(24:49):
when you really got dive into it, Eagles probably should
have won against Green Bay by double digits. Should it
beat last week by double digits? Right, they just didn't
think that things break their way. So it's it's a
unique opportunity to have team like the Eagles be underrated
even though they've been one of the top three, top
four best teams in football all season.

Speaker 3 (25:06):
So it is a unique position.

Speaker 5 (25:08):
Like me and Chav talked about this is it feels
too easy. That's my fear here, Chad, where it's like,
right now, I'm able to get you know, in a teaser,
i can get them down just to win this game.
And I'm just shocked this has stayed under seven. And
I do think it all comes back through the hurts,
injury and the public and professional money coming in so
heavy on this commander's team where I'm shocked to see
how much money is poured in on this team. Like

(25:29):
I really do think by the time we do the
show it'll be more balanced. It's still heavy towards commanders.

Speaker 1 (25:34):
Jake Elliott, do your fucking job. The extra points. This
line is six, right. We felt the last week it
pushed on six because Jake Elliott was missing extra points.

Speaker 2 (25:50):
Jake Elliott, do your job. It's all we're asking.

Speaker 1 (25:56):
Simon, did you know that inside man, there are two wolves.
One wolf represents darkness and despair, but the other wolf
is relaxed and luxuriating in resplendent comfort. Ah, because that

(26:16):
wolf is decked out head to paw in the flexible.

Speaker 2 (26:22):
Breathability of Tommy John.

Speaker 1 (26:24):
You can only feed one wolf, Simon, So feed that
comfortable wolf. The geniuses at Tommy John have mastered the
art of comfort. To see what thousands of five star
reviewers are raving about. Howell with comfort at a wardrobe
filled with Tommy John, Simon, Why will you be wearing

(26:48):
more Tommy John in twenty twenty five?

Speaker 3 (26:50):
Because comfort is king?

Speaker 2 (26:52):
Ah, it's my wolf howl.

Speaker 1 (27:01):
Right now, you can shop Tommy John dot com slash
favorites and get you twenty fiers off your first order.
Save Tommy John, save twenty five percent of Tommy John
dot com slash favorites. That's Tommy John dot com slash favorites.
I went, I went off script on Matt's read there.
I hope he's okay with it. What did you think

(27:21):
of my howl?

Speaker 3 (27:23):
I don't know what you're going for there? That was
definitely a wolf hel though. Oh all right?

Speaker 1 (27:31):
Buffalo, Kansas City, Kansas City minus one and a half.
The totals forty seven and a half. This was Simon says,
the Chiefs on the Money line is our exec decision
taken a minute to get some traction. It's it's moving
to two in some spots. You know, we'll have Matt
Mitchell come on if he can promise to, you know,

(27:51):
keep it, keep it tight.

Speaker 2 (27:52):
We're trying to keep the.

Speaker 1 (27:53):
Podcast less than four hours today because he came on
before the show.

Speaker 2 (28:00):
I think this is why he's a little hot today,
because he.

Speaker 1 (28:02):
Said he bet an inordinate amount of money, an obscene
amount of money.

Speaker 2 (28:07):
On the Buffalo Bills. We obviously are both on the
Chiefs here.

Speaker 1 (28:13):
I would like Matt Mitchell to come on as the
resident Bills obsessive.

Speaker 2 (28:19):
He's an excellent better.

Speaker 1 (28:20):
He's not just a mediocre podcast producer and a Bill's freak.
He's an excellent better. So, Matt, you want to explain
yourself while you're going against the hosts of the show.

Speaker 6 (28:31):
WHI Chad, it's nice to be on. I hope you're well.
I appreciate all the listeners and the outpouring of support
following your incoherent and asinine breakdown of your Chiefs Love
last episode. I've realized that since the infamous thirteen seconds
game three years ago. I have done a very good

(28:53):
job of locking my heart away and developing a thick
candy shell so that I'm not as absolutely crushed by
a loss in the playoffs as I was after that game,
so that the Bengals loss in the playoffs meant very little. Also,
they just lost regular style, which is what I always
ask of them. Even last week, I felt more relief

(29:16):
than joy in a victory that was very hard fought,
in one that I was consumed with dread leading up
to it. And I'm realizing, Chad, that I'm not able
to hit those those the high highs, the true mania
of an incredible victory, because I've been holding back and
shielding myself and the time has finally come. I used

(29:38):
to to dance like everyone's watching and love like I'll
always get hurt, But now I'm ready. I'm ready to
get hurt, and I'm going to go into this game
filled with optimism and excitement ruthlessness that the Bills will
leave Kansas City victorious. And I'm putting my money where
my mouth is, and I'm disgusted with myself that I'd

(29:59):
be saying this out loud to so many people, But
I'm in. I'm fucking all in. I've heard enough. It's
time for men of action.

Speaker 3 (30:07):
To do just that. So go Bills.

Speaker 1 (30:10):
That is a end of a rom com worthy soliloquy
about your love and your willingness to expose yourself and
be vulnerable this weekend. I believe it was Bob Scucci
who once said, when all hope is gone, all that's
left is relief. Yeah, it might be something you were

(30:34):
feeling at some point, and I'm glad that you are
getting back to finding euphoria enjoy as a sports fan.
My Kansas City Chiefs take which I know what you're
referring to, and listeners know what you're referring to, which
you went after me for when I couldn't defend myself.
You dropped it into the podcast on Tuesday. Is I'm

(30:57):
rooting for history. I'm not saying I'm rooting for the
thing that's never happened, which is to beat the Buffalo Bills,
because the Buffalo Bills get beaten by everybody. My point was,
I want to see the three pet That's what I'm
rooting for. Matt Mitchell. I'm rooting for historical dominance of
dynastic proportions.

Speaker 2 (31:17):
The fucking Buffalo.

Speaker 6 (31:18):
Bills have been playing fucking football for longer than there's
been a Super Bowl, and they've have not won a
Super Bowl.

Speaker 3 (31:26):
That is pretty goddamn historic.

Speaker 6 (31:27):
All you gotta say, Chad, all you gotta do is
go into that fucking microphone and say, you know what,
I'm rooting for the team that never loses, to not lose.
I'm rooting for the team with the better coach. I'm
rooting for the best quarterback to beat the second best quarterback.
I'm rooting for the team that is favored to win
the game at home.

Speaker 1 (31:46):
Here, I'm rooting for the team that has the opportunity
to win three straight Super Bowls. I'm rooting for the
team that has a quarterback that has the opportunity to
set standards that have never before been seen in the
history of the NFL, which has been around longer than
the Buffalo fucking Bills. So that's what I'm rooting for.

(32:09):
The See, I have the bigger picture, I think, much
bigger than you do, Matt. I'm not thinking myopically. I'm
not thinking, Oh, how does this all impact the tiny,
cute little paris of Western New York franchise Buffalo Bills.
I'm thinking, how does this impact all of fandom? How
does this impact sports history? Where does this put Patrick

(32:31):
Mahomes in the legendary status of the greatest athletes and
achievers who have ever lived. I'm not thinking, Oh, does
the team that always wins?

Speaker 2 (32:42):
Are they going to win? That's not how I'm thinking
about it.

Speaker 4 (32:45):
Chad.

Speaker 6 (32:45):
Okay, listeners, I had to do a visualization exercise on Sunday.
I want you to do another one again. Unless you're driving,
keep your eyes open. Unless you're driving, close your eyes.
I want you to picture Chadnleman walking into a beautiful,
glittering casino. He's walking through the casino. He's going to
the high roller room. He's walking through it. He's saying, no, no,

(33:06):
you know what, I need to go to the to
the lowest limits. I want to see the biggest losers.
I want to join them. He goes over to the
biggest losers shoe a blackjack and he sits down and
they say how much how much do you want? He says, oh,
no chips for me. I'm here rooting for the dealer.
And he has a little pennant that says go casino.
That's what you're that's the argument you are making, go

(33:28):
house money.

Speaker 1 (33:29):
Matt and I have been at each other all morning
because I asked a simple question in one of our
slack channels. Simon, We're on the Chiefs, Go Chiefs. We
love the Chiefs. Why am I worried about the Chiefs?

Speaker 3 (33:44):
If we still have a producer?

Speaker 5 (33:45):
You got to cut that last thirty minutes unbelievable back
and forth by Chat and Matt and Mitchell.

Speaker 3 (33:51):
Holy shit. Yeah.

Speaker 5 (33:53):
My only question in Matt Mitchell is if you know
what you're doing here. You're supposed to bet the Chiefs
so you can actually win money when your team loses,
rather than you lose money and you are depressed for
a year when your team.

Speaker 1 (34:04):
Loses and nobody in your beautiful Milwaukee neighborhood gets ice cream.

Speaker 3 (34:09):
Jus, you have no money left.

Speaker 6 (34:10):
Right Imagine one guy rooting for the fucking casino and
another guy with the most cowardly, fucking approach in history.
That's where we have this drop, which I'll play right now.

Speaker 2 (34:20):
Simon Hunter, professional coward.

Speaker 6 (34:24):
I would never hedge emotionally or otherwise, but I wish
you the best of luck.

Speaker 3 (34:28):
No, I'm smart.

Speaker 5 (34:29):
I actually bet on my favorite team in August, unlike
Matt Mitchell here who bets on his favorite team.

Speaker 3 (34:34):
Beat you a lot.

Speaker 2 (34:34):
Now, this is great.

Speaker 5 (34:37):
Yeah, I don't sleep, I don't need I do nothing
to think of you, Kansas City Chiefs.

Speaker 3 (34:42):
I just can't.

Speaker 5 (34:42):
I keep looking for ways to fade this Chiefs team
chat and we're here. We can't do There's no reason
not to bet this number. It's low. It's a great
matchup for them, and we talked about this Bill's team.
It's been an incredible season. This is a team that
had thirty million dead calf for Stefan Dicks. It's seventy
million in dead cap overall on this roster this season.

Speaker 3 (35:03):
People, that's fucking insane.

Speaker 5 (35:05):
They're literally paying seventy million to the guys who are
arming on this roster and they are in the finals,
the AFC Finals. It's I can't believe it. So this
is a team that's overachieved all because they have the
mutant that is Josh Allen, the greatest quarterbacks to play
this game. Can you get over the hump, Chad? That's
what everyone's betting on them. The public has the same
exact view as Matt Mitchell, like, they're coming in heavy

(35:25):
on this Bills team, not because they're sick of the Chiefs,
but they think this is the destiny, this is the
year of Josh Allen, and they're betting them hard. I
mean even in the action app I'm looking at right now,
seventy percent of the bets, same percent.

Speaker 3 (35:38):
Of the money. Right now.

Speaker 5 (35:38):
We're on the Buffalo Bills on the road in Kansas City.
This is a team that was perfect at home, but
they struggled on the road this season. And the struggle
on the road was their defense. It wasn't once again,
wasn't Josh Allen was the defense. So yeah, it's it's
interesting that people are so confidently betting a bad number
on this Bills team, where it's like this should be

(35:59):
two and a have three. They're happy to line up
and take a bad number one and a half or two.
So yeah, like I said, bookmakers are happy. I'm extremely happy.
It's a rare position to be in chat. We're basically
on a Chiefs team that the public is doubting, and
it's the exact scenario that happened last year. The Chiefs,
people forget, were a five or four point dog at

(36:20):
the Ravens last year, they got up to five and
a half before kickoff, five and a half dog. No
one was betting the Chiefs that line was running up.
Even the actual happen. Believe it was less than twenty
percent of the bet twenty percent money on the Chiefs
in that exact spot. They rolled that Ravens team. And
that's that's literally what this exact scenary is playing out
right here. People are doubting, not believing the Chiefs team,
betting the other side. And yeah, you can wave your

(36:42):
hands and try to act like no one believes in
us if you're the Bills people do, that's just not true.
You guys are the darling favor right now of the league,
just like the Commanders. So I love our position that
we're in. The Chiefs to me or the better team
across the board in every position except the strongest part
of this Bills team obviously is on that offensive line,
and that to me is our only fear here, Chad.

(37:03):
If the Chiefs can't stop the run, we're done here.
Because the Bills have a vault. They're a different team
now where they play smart, they don't turn over. If
we can get a lead with this Chiefs team have
to make Josh Allen drop back a ton of throw
the ball a lot. That to me is how the
Chiefs can come out on top of this one because
we know the weakness of this Bills team.

Speaker 3 (37:20):
They don't have.

Speaker 5 (37:21):
Receivers, like they got rid of their two top dogs,
and he's just thrown in nameless guys, right, I mean
Amari Cooper who they traded for. He's been non existent
since they got them. Like this just it's not great.
And you know, like I said, incredible run by this
this Bills team, but they've run into a juggernaut that's
not going to lose this game. Like the Ravens kind

(37:41):
of lost that game last week. Let's let's be honest here,
the Ravens beat themselves. I'd be shocked if the Chiefs
beat themselves in this matchup at home. And we've seen
the stats from Evan when it's cold below foy degrees
in arrowhead in the playoffs, this is when you want
to back Mahomes. He just lives up to these moments
in the exact spots. So yeah, I really can't believe
we're only getting We're getting minus one and a half

(38:02):
with the Chiefs at home in the spot and no
one's betting them. It's it really is shocking right now,
look into that metric and seeing that we are on
the team that no one believes in and their home favorite.
So yeah, obvious, you can tell you Jack feeling pretty
confident about this Chief side.

Speaker 1 (38:16):
There is a better according to Patrick Everson, who placed
a one point three million dollar bet on the Chiefs
to win the game. Just on the money line, I'll
reiterate Patrick Mahomes in November, December, January, when it's forty
degrees or less, twenty three and two straight up.

Speaker 2 (38:40):
He's won twenty in a row.

Speaker 1 (38:42):
His last loss was to Tom Brady in two thousand
and nineteen. The only fear here is Josh Allen, and
you know he's so good at avoiding sacks and the
Chiefs pressure as much as George Carloft has been amazing
on the edge recently, their pressure is Chris Jones on

(39:04):
the inside unless he is moving himself to the edges.
But when Josh Allen gets flushed, he is very hard
to sack, like so difficult to put into plays behind
the sticks.

Speaker 2 (39:18):
Right.

Speaker 1 (39:19):
That to me is like the biggest fears every time
he rolls out, I get a little nervous when I'm
betting against Josh Allen.

Speaker 2 (39:28):
But I think to your.

Speaker 1 (39:29):
Point, teams are not the same when they play the
Chiefs in the playoffs that they are throughout the year
because they're not thinking, oh, I have many many series
in which to make up for any mistakes. Every series
is so critical. You get tighter when you think you
can't make a mistake, and everyone believes they cannot make

(39:51):
a mistake against Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs. He's that magical,
he's that awesome. I think that has a real impact
in these games that just doesn't get accounted for in
the spread.

Speaker 2 (40:05):
I don't know if you feel the same way I do.

Speaker 5 (40:07):
And I also think that's some of the reason why
I love the under here, where it's like both these
teams are going to play super slow and conservative and
just eat the clock up because they have the same
view we have. Keep the offense off the field like that.
That's how you're gonna win this game. Right now, let
the other team get in their rhythm. So coming into it,
I think both game plans are gonna be run heavy,
and you know, we talk a little bit about Matt Milano.

(40:28):
That's a big X factor for this Bill's defense. I
know that yesterday he was limited with a hamstring, so
you know, great that it's not a knee. Terrible that
it's a hamstring, Like, you don't want a guy to
have hamstring issues heading into a game that, like you
just said, it's gonna be below forty degrees. That's not ideal,
especially for such an important defender. That's you know, an
older guy Matt Milano in this spot. So yeah, that's

(40:53):
it's I was really trying to be on the Bills, honestly,
Jack coming into it, because I just I love this
team and their story.

Speaker 3 (40:59):
But to me, it was all about the number, and
it never got to where I.

Speaker 5 (41:03):
Felt comfortable that this would be a good Bills line
to bet, Like, it never got to two and a
half three.

Speaker 3 (41:07):
And it's what we just talked about.

Speaker 5 (41:09):
They are beloved right now by the public and there's
plenty of smart professional money out there coming to heavy
on them as well. So I'm not trying to have
people ever think this year you're getting very unique opportunity.
You have two home favorites that the public doesn't really
believe in, and you're getting a good number on both
of them.

Speaker 3 (41:24):
So I like this position we're in.

Speaker 5 (41:27):
It doesn't feel like it was you know in other
years where everyone's just hammering these number one and number
two seeds. This is a unique season where people don't
believe in this one or two seed. People believe in
the road dogs, and the money you can follow it.
It says that they believe in them. So it's gonna
be interesting by game time. See if it comes on
the other side. If you know, the professional public money

(41:48):
does show up on the Chiefs and the Eagles, because
right now, this early money, it is, without a doubt,
all these road dogs.

Speaker 1 (41:55):
So interesting how people's perceptions can be changed by how
brilliant just the quarterbacks are. Right, Josh Allen and Jaden
Daniels have been much better players this year than Patrick
Mahomes and Jalen Hurts, and it has put us in
a position. You're one hundred percent right. I don't think

(42:15):
we've ever had an experience where we both like a
home favorite that are the higher seeds that none of
the public wants to bet. It's it's such a it's
a different position for us entirely. But like you said,
we're all over the Eagles. We're all over the Chiefs.

(42:37):
Really important stuff. By the way, one more injury report.
Taylor Rapp safety did not practice for the Bills yesterday.
He's got that hip injury that could be significant. You
mentioned Milano. He was limited in practice. We saw what
a difference he made for the Bills against the Ravens
last week. Christian Benford, the cornerback, had a concussion last week,

(42:59):
was in practice, which could be a good sign because
it means he got back on the field. It's one
of the first steps you have to make to get
through the concussion protocol. So those are the latest updates.
No real injuries of note for the Chiefs. Okay to
Hedge or not to Hedge. So I got these questions
on Twitter before the season began. We each gave out

(43:20):
future bets we liked, including super Bowl matchups. Mine was
amongst many Chiefs versus Eagles in the Super Bowl. Every
year I do a matchup round robin in which I
bet the teams whose preseason.

Speaker 2 (43:33):
Super Bowl odds are twelve to one or shorter.

Speaker 1 (43:35):
It's a bet that Evan tipped me off to in
his preseason story last year. Heading into last year, it
was nine of ten matchups had been from teams that
had odds of twelve to win or shorter. Last year
it happened again. The Chiefs and Eagles were both in
this group. Their odds to meet in the Super Bowl preseason,
we're twenty eight to one. I bet that I have

(43:57):
that existing before we go to Simons u whose bet
is even more exciting because people like to say, no,
you didn't really do that, Gifford.

Speaker 2 (44:07):
Let's go to the video evidence.

Speaker 5 (44:11):
My finals, Chiefs winning over the Eagles once again in
the Super Bowl.

Speaker 3 (44:16):
If to win three straight and.

Speaker 5 (44:17):
You can get that right now at fifty five to
one on bet three sixty five Chiefs beating the Eagles
in the Super Bowl, I.

Speaker 3 (44:23):
Just think it's there.

Speaker 5 (44:24):
They're both going to be the one seeds if they're
both at home. Like if the Lines got to come
to Philadelphia in mid January, if Purdy has to come
to Philadelphia in mid January, I just think the Eagles
should win that game. The only hesitation I just talked
about is the Rams, Like I think of all the
guys that wouldn't be phased about that kind of environment
is Stafford. But yeah, I have the Eagles winning it.

(44:46):
Then versus the Chiefs, the Chiefs winning the Eagles in
the Super Bowl. It's just Chad knows, I love bett
on history. I want to be part of history. It's
just it's one of my favorite things, and this is
the team to do it. Like, It's just the Super
Bowl team always gets a little weaker. I mean we've
seen it right now with the forty nine ers, like
all that drama they're having to deal with. Yeah, yeah,
the Chiefs just aren't that team. And they don't they
don't lose any coordinators. Like, it's just all there. So

(45:08):
the boring bet I know, but Chiefs one of the
Super Bowl. That's where I'm going.

Speaker 1 (45:12):
Chad, all right, it's so fun to go back and
listen to that because you were spot on about so
many things, not just the Chiefs like and their opportunity,
but the way you nailed the Eagles after they had
come off a down year, talking about the Rams having
to go to Philly being off the Niners.

Speaker 2 (45:31):
Brilliant, brilliant stuff. We've all seen your ticket.

Speaker 1 (45:34):
We know it is a significant, significant amount of money.
And that's just one ticket you have. I know you've
got several on this particular matchup.

Speaker 2 (45:44):
Chiefs beating the Eagles.

Speaker 1 (45:47):
A couple of our listeners sent me notes. I'm going
to read the excerpts of one because it is representative
of everything I'm currently sitting on a Super Bowl futures
Chiefs beating Eagles and Eagles beating Chiefs. Each one unit
bets Chiefs win, pays out fifty six units. As you noted, Simon,
we headed at fifty five to one, Eagles pays out

(46:08):
sixty seven. Book is offering a cash out of twenty
point five units. I've thought about letting the Eagles game
ride and if they win, betting twenty eight units on
the bills to cover. Also have considered cashing. What strategies
would you guys consider? So basically that covers everything, right,
That covers a cash out. You and I and Evan

(46:29):
talked a little bit about this on Tuesday after the show,
talking about waiting to see what happens in the first
game and if the Eagles win, hedging the second game,
how will you be handling any hedging this weekend?

Speaker 5 (46:44):
Yeah, so off the top, everyone should know every person
is unique and as their own life going on with
your own shit going on, your own life, and you
need to plan accordingly with these type of bets. If
you are in that position that you need this fucking money.
If you need this money, cash it out. Go ahead,
who cares cash it out? Take that money you can.
You made a great bet. The books are begging you

(47:05):
to take their money because they are terrified that you're
going to hit this bet and they don't want to
pay it out. So if you do need the money,
cash it out. If you're building a bank roll and
you don't have any money to hedge it.

Speaker 3 (47:16):
You're in that type of spot, cash it out. There's
nothing wrong with that. Now, someone like me, there is
no reason to cash out. Like I'm of course gonna
let this ride.

Speaker 5 (47:25):
And it's from the perspective of it's a bet I trusted,
and it basically came all to exactly what I predicted.
These two teams would be at home in this position
to win. The math is telling you this is a
good spot to be in, and I'm going to a
unique spot where I really only bet on these two
teams for Super Bowl futures like I had. I think

(47:46):
I had two different bets on the Rams from when
I thought it was really stupid, but I basically thought
they were open up cap space to have a big signing.
They were actually paying out Aaron Donald to retire, So
that was a futures bet I did make on the Rams.
But other than that, my two heaviest bets for what
people just are in the clip where basically the Chiefs
and the Eagles. And now I'm in the spot where

(48:06):
could I hedge on the Commanders. Yes, I think Commanders
right now are plus seven hundred to make the Super Bowl.
But I wouldn't do that, especially if you're anyone.

Speaker 3 (48:13):
Else out there. This is not the spot to hedge.

Speaker 5 (48:15):
I think this guy talking about head you in the
next game, that's the spot. Like, if you want to
take a position to hedge out, do that on the Bills.
You can either do it on their Super Bowl future.
You can either do it taking their number.

Speaker 3 (48:28):
You could. I mean, if you're going really balls, you
throw them in a seven and a half up to
seven and a half, put them with the Eagles.

Speaker 5 (48:33):
Take the Eagles down to a pick because again it's
historical ve Eagles don't win in this spot. It's it's
a really good spot to be playing a rookie at home.
So there's a bunch of different ways you're going to
approach it. I honestly think if you're able to people,
I'd let a ride like you made a great bet.
That's why the books are trying to give you a
cash out, Like I'd never cash out, because if the

(48:53):
books are offering you a cash out one, they're gonna
under they're goning to give you a bad price. They're
not going to pay you out with a should be
paying you. And it also just shows that they're terrified
because they don't want to cash out people like that
is not the business they're in. They're in the business
of taking your money. So the factor even giving you
that big of an option shows how terrified they are.
So yeah, I would pat myself on the back people

(49:15):
out there, if you had the balls to take it.
In August, I have fifty five to one or fifty
to one, and I'd let it ride. But if you
want to take a position hedge out of it, I
wouldn't do on the Eagles game.

Speaker 3 (49:24):
I would do on the Bills game.

Speaker 5 (49:24):
Because to me, that's that's the game that's truly a
coin flip, that Bills game, like none of us will
be shocked Sunday night if the Bills fell off that.

Speaker 2 (49:32):
Upset Simon Hunter, professional coward.

Speaker 5 (49:36):
I would be shocked if the Commanders put it off.
So to me, that's where the value is right now
if you're trying to hedge it, and obviously if it
gets to the Super Bowl, even more even easier to
take a position. You just basically will put half the
money on the Eagles because they will be an underdog either.
I don't know if this is true, but from my lines,
I do have the Eagles an underdog to the Chiefs

(49:56):
or the Bills. I'm positive the books will follow suit
like they're just that's just the way it usually is.
Usually AFC is going to get the respect in this
type of spot. So yeah, if you do want to
be patient, I think you'll get a nice opportunity in
the super Bowl. But yeah, chat film film pretty good.
I basically have somewhere around five K invested in the
Chiefs to beat the Eagles to win three orndred k.

(50:17):
And obviously people know I'm an Eagles fan. I have
a ton of money invested in the egos super Bowl future.
So yeah, no bets, I've sent the Commanders. No one
saw this coming, and I was I talked about coming
to the year. I did doubt the Bills did not
see this type of run happening, So have no money invested,
and I wouldn't need to hedge out if I had
to in that game against the Chiefs. But like I

(50:38):
just said, I'm gonna let it ride. I'm coffing in
our position and I love our bets right now.

Speaker 1 (50:41):
So if you want to let if you want to
hedge in that second game, if you've got the Eagles
and the Eagles make it, and you want to hedge
on the on the Bills in that second game in
a matchup because you have the Chiefs against the Eagles
in the Super Bowl. Evan is also really good at
this stuff, So maybe when we can bring them in
in a second, I'm going to ask them his opinion too.
What's your normal hedging strategy? Do you bet half a

(51:02):
unit on the team so you can recover, you know,
half of the winnings that you would have otherwise had.
Even if you bet half a unit, you're still going
to be way ahead on whatever you put in for
the futures. Most people aren't putting in a full unit
when they're betting on huge futures at long odds. So
what would you as an amount tend to bet if

(51:25):
you were to hedge in this second game.

Speaker 5 (51:29):
Once again, it's tough because it's about your confident level.
I mean, you have a fifty five to one ticket,
so I would view it as a minimum five to
eight units on the bills, like you want, you want
to make some good money here, and even if that
doesn't hit, you still leave yourself a huge ticket.

Speaker 3 (51:44):
For that Super Bowl future. So it all depends your position.

Speaker 5 (51:47):
Like I said, if if if you do just want
to recoup your your losses, you could do what you'd
just talked about. You could just put one unit on it,
like play it safe because you are confident, but you
want to make sure you least get that money back
to you invested the way back in August. But to me,
I'm all about turning profits. So at minimum, I would
say two to three units on the bills because you
want to make some money on which is a great play.

Speaker 3 (52:08):
It's like you deserve that reward. You deserve to get
a nice kickback for that.

Speaker 5 (52:12):
And that's why I'm saying with people that don't have
that that type of money put down or they're not
confident it hit that cash out button, like you're getting
paid out a nice a nice penny here for a
bet you made. So there's just so many ways you
can attack it. But yeah, for me personally, I want
to I want to get some money back that I
made good, good bet on, So I would definitely go
three to four five units on it, just so I

(52:34):
can get a nice hit with even if I do
lose that bet, And like we've done before, you can
find a middle That's why you know, it sucks that
it's dropped back down from two, but if this got
up to two and a half three, you're getting a
really nice chance to hit a middle with that Bill's number.
Which again, that's that's a position we want to be,
and we want to we want to have a middle spot.

Speaker 3 (52:51):
But I think the books are wise to it. They're
not really going above that two.

Speaker 1 (52:54):
Number super Bowl futures Egos plus one seventy five plus
two twenty Bills plus two thirty Commanders plus seven fifty
any worthwhile investment here. I was leaning to play in
the Chiefs at plus two twenty just because obviously we
like them to get to the super Bowl. They're not

(53:16):
going to have those kind of odds when they get there,
I'd probably like them.

Speaker 2 (53:21):
To win the Super Bowl. So I feel like I'm
getting the best number on the Chiefs over the that
I'm going to get over the next two and a
half weeks.

Speaker 3 (53:31):
Yeah.

Speaker 5 (53:31):
So basically the way to go about this is if
you have no futures, if you're just looking for an
opinion on who we think is going to win the
Super Bowl.

Speaker 3 (53:38):
I think me and Chat are both in agreeans we
think it's gonna be the Chiefs. Like it just it
fills lined up for them.

Speaker 5 (53:43):
They have the perfect team put together right now, the
way they play, even if it is the Eagles of Commanders,
I think they match up well against both of them.

Speaker 3 (53:50):
And you know you can shop around right now.

Speaker 5 (53:53):
Are there are a couple of plus two thirties, a
couple plus two twenties out there on them to win
the Super Bowl at this point, the Chiefs, it's basically
you get in a line with their money line as
if they were a four to four and a half
point dog. So that to me is great value on
the Bills and the Chiefs. Like, if you like the
AFC side, you're getting great value because I just told
you my model has the Eagles as the dog against

(54:14):
the Bills and the Chiefs. So in my view of it,
if you're trying to play that type of number two
to one on the Chiefs or the Bills against the Eagles,
that's really really nice future to get. So that's one
way to play it. But like I said, I'm already
having invested, so I'm not doing anything. But in my opinion,
I think there's still value on this Chiefs team, Like
you know, you're getting them as as if they're a

(54:35):
four and a half dog against the Eagles, where we
know they're most likely going to be a favorite. So
to me, that's where my eyes go. Right I saw
that number, I was like, oh my god, it's above
two hundred and again it's just because the Bills and
the Chiefs are playing each other, but still that's tremendous
value against an Eagles team that you know, we all
know they're just the favorite just because it's it's more
likely they get there, not because they're better than the

(54:56):
Bills of the Chiefs. So that that to me, is
a horrible number to bet. If you're taking Eagles, the
way to go is either take the Chiefs or the Bills.

Speaker 1 (55:04):
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I know the answer to this Simon's biggest bets.

Speaker 2 (56:23):
Chiefs, chiefs, chiefs, God.

Speaker 4 (56:26):
Damn it, God, damn it, damn it.

Speaker 2 (56:30):
Eagles, Eagles, Eagles, am I right.

Speaker 5 (56:34):
Yeah, And I love the tolls too on the on
the Eagles over. On the Chiefs under, I believe Chiefs
are Chiefs under is still forty seven and a half.
Still like the value there still tick that under and
the Eagles over. I could see it moving as they
get closer to the game. Right now, it's still forty
seven and a half. I could usually see that get
up to forty eighty forty eight and a half, which
that's where I.

Speaker 3 (56:53):
Got to model that. I think there's still value on
the over.

Speaker 5 (56:56):
And you know, my view of it is what me
and Chat kind of talked about there, where you know,
Eagles are a big play offense, and there's a high
variance right now.

Speaker 3 (57:04):
On this Commanders team.

Speaker 5 (57:05):
Them going for a fourth down and I just don't
see many many threes being kicked in this game. Even
the Eagles don't really trust their kicker right now. So
it feels like Washington Eagles easily get turned into a
shootout and that Chief spills game. Both sides wanted to
be born, wanted to take long, slow drives, and it's
it's basically bumped up just because of the names, right
it's the Mahomes versus Allen. We're getting probably two to

(57:28):
three free points because people are still living in twenty
twenty two, twenty twenty one, Like, these are not those
same teams, and it's it's not winning football. We've seen
that the NFL is shifted now where it's the.

Speaker 3 (57:40):
Three the three.

Speaker 5 (57:40):
I mean you can even say commanders, Like the four
best teams left all go for the moors the most
and most successfully are fourth down and they all have good,
strong run games. So we've definitely seen a shift chat
in the NFL, and that plays into this chief Spills game.
I just I like that under there. So yeah, both
favorites and then an over and under pretty pretty So.

Speaker 2 (58:02):
When all hope is lost, all this left is relief.

Speaker 4 (58:06):
Let's play Scoots Roulette.

Speaker 2 (58:10):
Scoot Roulette.

Speaker 1 (58:11):
Last week you had Buffalo, I had Baltimore. I feel
like we're gonna end up on the same teams this week.

Speaker 5 (58:18):
Nah, well you can go first, you pick, I'll go,
and I'll go a different team.

Speaker 2 (58:22):
Well I want the Chiefs, Yeah, I'll go Eagles.

Speaker 3 (58:24):
Then all right, hey, ain't nobody trying to hit that bullshit?

Speaker 4 (58:29):
All right?

Speaker 1 (58:29):
Before we get out of here, let's welcome in our
direct You're so magnanimous, you're feeling so good this week.
You're unlike Matt Mitchell, who's like says he's free and
happy and you know, just joy, unhinged, dancing like no
one's watching. And yet we're seeing him comes in seven
years of knowing him.

Speaker 2 (58:48):
Yeah, I've never seen him this unhinged.

Speaker 4 (58:50):
Go outside, ner, get out, go. I ain't got time
to be distracted by your worthless chime. Man's gone. You
better tell this some much to walk the fuck out. Now?
Are we done for the day.

Speaker 2 (59:03):
We get out of here.

Speaker 1 (59:04):
Let's welcome in our director of research, Evan Abrams, for
the final word. Tell me something, Evan, make me feel good.

Speaker 2 (59:11):
The last word with Evan Abrams, we're finished talking.

Speaker 4 (59:16):
To be fair for people who've known Matt Mitchell for
as long as you and I have, I mean, this
is the closest he's ever been to the Promised Land,
Like this is actually the closest, like thirteen seconds and
the whole thing. Yeah, this is the Bills team that
isn't turning it over, it's playing say football, it's doing
exactly what they need to do to get there. So
I think he's unhinged because he's never been this nervous
in his life.

Speaker 1 (59:38):
I'd like to see on Sunday night if they just
lose regular correct how he's feeling when we got to
record the podcast. Yeah, he barely made it onto the
show last Sunday.

Speaker 4 (59:50):
I mean, he's not showing up the place, and then
he's showing up early and screaming and everyone. It's been
wonderful to answer some of your questions from earlier. There
are hypoth medical lines out for the Super Bowl right now.
So yeah, like Casey and Buffalo about four and a
half point favorites over Washington in both situations, and Casey
Buffalo both about one and a half favorites over Philly's

(01:00:13):
at this point. The interesting thing about those look aheadlines
Buffalo Washington total is fifty three and a half, which
is fun. Everything else is kind of in order. All so,
I'll give you a few stats for some of these games.
You guys had talked about the Chiefs and some of
the advantages they have. Well they have another advantage. If
you watch the games last weekend. They played the first
game of the weekend, they played on Saturday, weill Buffalo

(01:00:35):
played the last game of the weekend. So Chiefs actually
do have a full day rest and prep advantage against
Buffalo in this one. So Andy Reid in his career
forty five and twelve straight up Chiefs and Eagles when
coaching a game on extended prep time more than a
full week while his opponent is on normal or less.
When that game is at home, He's thirty one and

(01:00:55):
seven with Mahomes. Reid is twenty and three in that spot,
fourteen and one at home with the rest advantage. So
let's talk about the other thing I was gonna mention,
is this Casey's bet percentage Now, depending on the book
at action, we do like a consensus percentage right now,
it's in about the low thirties, which would be one
of the lowest of his careers. So Buffalo definitely getting

(01:01:18):
some love in this game. And let's turn our attention
now to Washington and Philly. So, yeah, Washington is a
six point underdog, but they feel like a bit of
a different six point underdog, and especially this year because
of their scoring. They are averaging twenty nine point one
points per game including the playoffs since the merger. Only
the twenty fourteen twenty fifteen Packers behind Aaron Rodgers averaged

(01:01:40):
twenty nine points per game or more. And we're this
high of an underdog. In the Conference championship. They closed
plus eight and a half against Seattle. In that game
they actually led nineteen seven, lost twenty eight to twenty two.
They did cover the spread, it means very little. I
think the thing I'm trying to prove here is that
Washington is kind of an enigma, honestly a team from
a scoring point of view, from the fact that they

(01:02:02):
have a rookie head coach, you know, a new one
for Washington, and an actual rookie quarterback. So I just
think they're a little bit messing with the models because
of their offense. And then I'll give you this last
note pure from bet Labs. But Commanders had no playoff experience,
didn't make it last year, while the Eagles they've got
a decent amount of playoff experience being to the Super Bowl.

(01:02:24):
Obviously they were there last year. So teams who didn't
make the playoffs the year prior are seven to ten
against the spread versus a team who did. In the
conference championship dating back to two thousand and four, when
the spread is over a field goal. They are one
to nine straight up and four and six against the spread. Now,
the one upset Joe Burrow and the Bengals over the
Chiefs in twenty twenty two that took Mahomes home and

(01:02:47):
took them to the super Bowl. So the numbers aren't
fantastic for Daniels, But who the heck cares at this point.
I mean, he's won twice as underdogs and now he's
an underdog again. That's only happened once where you've won
all three games in the playoffs as an underdog to
get to the super Bowl two thousand and eight Giants.
So we will see what type of history Washington makes

(01:03:08):
on Sunday.

Speaker 5 (01:03:09):
My favorite Daniels stat is in nine season Dak Prescott
two playoff wins, Jane Daniels one season two playoff wins.

Speaker 3 (01:03:16):
I love the troll.

Speaker 2 (01:03:17):
Well, look, it's very possible he's just a cheat code
that can really be accounted for.

Speaker 1 (01:03:22):
Yeah, and we're having all these conversations about it, and
in the end of the days, he's Mahomes asking what
he can do on the field that you have to
discount every other element of the game. What was that
stat that Andy Reid with Patrick Mahomes is twenty and
three straight up with an extra day of rest.

Speaker 4 (01:03:42):
It's just a rest advantage. Yes, so when they have
eight or more so, like more than a full week,
and the opponent is normal or less, so seven or
less twenty and three with Mahomes fourteen and one. At home.
When I say fourteen and one, though I in my
brain am saying to myself, who is the loss? I
honestly can't remember, but I have to look it up.

Speaker 3 (01:04:00):
It's gonna be the Raiders something.

Speaker 4 (01:04:01):
It's either it's always Raiders or Tom Brady, which is
now the same thing. So which is funny?

Speaker 2 (01:04:08):
That is funny? Thank you Evan.

Speaker 1 (01:04:09):
As reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by Bet three
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Speaker 2 (01:04:30):
At bet three sixty five.

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our next episode of the Favorites on the Action Network

(01:04:52):
YouTube page later than usual this Sunday Sunday night after
the Chiefs Bills game to recap both conferences championship games
and get an.

Speaker 2 (01:05:01):
Early look at the Super Bowl.

Speaker 1 (01:05:04):
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