Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:08):
Welcome to the Favorites the podcast, presented by Brett three
sixty five. We are part of the Volume podcast Network,
live from our Tommy John Home studios.
Speaker 2 (00:20):
I am Chad Millman of the Action Network.
Speaker 1 (00:22):
This is our Sunday Night episode in which we review
the faves five picks we put into the contest, dissect
why we left some games out, and we'll preview the
early lines we already like for week seven. I'm joined
as always by my cos my companion, my Campadre, my
(00:43):
BFF Professional Better.
Speaker 2 (00:44):
Simon hunter head O Soomon.
Speaker 1 (00:48):
Today when Chalk was having its way in every single way,
and that was the baseline of a comment that you
made to me this morning that helped us keep some
games in and allowed us to get to a two
(01:11):
and two day.
Speaker 2 (01:14):
We are.
Speaker 1 (01:17):
Five hundred right now, two and two. Like I said,
we have the Jets plus two and a half remaining.
The games we won we won handily. The games we
lost we were kind of in but not really. Mostly,
I thought this conversation we had before our final picks
this morning that led us all the way around the
(01:40):
league and back again was really fun. The whole day
was interesting. We are going to review what we missed.
We're gonna break it all down. If you believe you
could beat our picks this season, be our guest and
let us pay you forty thousand dollars. Sign up at
Favorites at actionnetwork dot com for the contest. Catch every
(02:02):
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of The Favorites podcast is presented by Bet three sixty
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Three sixty five.
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Speaker 2 (02:53):
All right, So a.
Speaker 1 (02:55):
Couple things trends we were paying attention to. The public
had been having a terrible year, and then today the
public was on Houston, the public one. The public was
on Detroit the public one. The public was on who
am I missing? Tampa Bay? The public one. That's number one.
Speaker 2 (03:19):
Number two.
Speaker 1 (03:20):
We've been tracking the NFL underdogs of six plus points
or more. They had been sixteen to two and one
against the spread this season. After today, that is no
longer the case. The Panthers did not cover as six
plus point favorites. The Commanders pushed as six plus point underdogs.
(03:45):
I mean the Panthers were doused too. The Browns covered.
So not a great day if you were a six
plus point dog. It's in line with the chalkiness of
the day. We're gonna run through these games. First one up,
Arizona Green Bay. We had Green Bay five and a half.
Speaker 2 (04:02):
Loved it all week. I really loved it all week.
Speaker 1 (04:07):
I believe you came around in my thinking I might
have bullieted you into it and it went exactly as
we expected Simon Big exactly.
Speaker 3 (04:17):
Yeah, Kyler didn't show up, and that was really our
preference about the whole reason for Ben. It was like,
we haven't seen him put back to back really competitive
road starts in his career that are against really competitive,
good teams. And you know, that was a huge win
they pulled off against forty nine ers, But me and
you talked about it. It was a little I don't
(04:37):
know if they really won that game so much as
the forty nine ers might have lost that game. Yes,
And you know, we were five minutes into this Green
Bay game and Kyler coun't get anything going. They punted
back to Green Bay and they're already up seven to nothing.
They come right down score another fourteen, and then off
from there. It was just a bad game all together
(04:57):
from the Cardinals team. I think Arvan Harris went out
in the first quarter after a hit. Yeah, okay, so yeah,
I didn't know that was injury. So yeah, it just
it just battle around for them. On the flip side,
you know, Jordan Love it took him a little bit
to get going, but he looked really good in that game.
Like a couple of big time throws really nice reads
(05:19):
using his idds and move the safety's around to get
his receivers open deep and like you know, once the
floor gets a team on their heels, you know, he
just schemes it up so well. So yeah, all the around,
that was a fun game. Like we talk all the time,
it's fun sometimes to bet on the chalk. That was fun.
Our fear was, you know, you bet four and a half.
(05:39):
I bet a lot of money at five. It got
up to five and a half in our contest and
it was just like, okay, is this gonna come down
and matter this half a point? Clearly we overreacted to
that half point. It did not matter at all. Really
happy we didn't take it out or even think about
taking out. It's just a week where unfortunately we didn't
take all favorites, but we talked about how we got
(06:00):
force in some of these favorites and luckily we did
with this Green Bay team.
Speaker 1 (06:04):
Yeah, the public was eight three and one today. This
was the last one in. To be honest, and we
we love this game because we believed Jordan Love and
the Packers were undervalued after losing to the Vikings and
then playing badly against the rams on the road. We thought,
now three weeks return from his injury, playing at home
(06:25):
against a soft defense, he would just be the better
quarterback leading the better team.
Speaker 2 (06:31):
And he was right.
Speaker 1 (06:32):
Like this offense gained four hundred and thirty seven yards,
It ran seventy plays, it had more than six yards
per play. Jordan Love threw for nearly two to sixty
and had four touchdowns. And the Cardinals did what we
thought they would do. They just made a lot of mistakes,
three fumbles lost. We should explain we had a conversation
(06:56):
this morning and we nearly pulled the Packers out. It's
fair to say the Packers were our last team in
Explain from your point of view why we nearly pulled
the Packers out, and also tell people we almost put
it in.
Speaker 3 (07:17):
It was bad weather, honestly, I mean I liked the
under there and it was forty seven and a half
got really lucky, landed right on forty seven. They only
scored three points in the fourth quarter, and that's just classic.
Bet the number, bet the spot, and yeah, that was
that was the main concern was the weather. Honestly, in
my opinion, it was just we know how random weather
can make these football games, and we saw with Arizona,
(07:39):
right with all those stupid fumbles. That's the scary part
with bad weather. It's just you don't know which team's
gonna react better to it. Shocking to no one. The
indoor team did not react well to it, right, and
clearly green Bay they're used to playing in forty degrees
shitty weather. So the team we thought about putting with
the Raiders, and you know it was honestly though, between
(08:00):
them and the Chargers, and you know you were your
love for the Raiders was just a good sales by
Sean Kerner, totally just he got you with a good
sales pitch. You fell in love with it, and I
was just like, I can't do it. Even though it
was a great number, is Aidan O'Connell. I just couldn't
get there with the kid. And I was just like,
it's still it's something's throwing off because they're playing against
(08:20):
the Pittsburgh defense. So, like you just said, thank god
we didn't do because it would be a brutal sin
here on one in three, knowing we switched out a
Green Bay team to end up not even being a sweat.
Speaker 1 (08:29):
We're going to talk about the Chargers. After we get
through our games Houston and New England. If the Packers
went exactly as we expected, this one didn't go anywhere
near the way we expected. New England was kind of
never in this game, except they were tantalizingly close to
(08:54):
putting themselves in the game. And I want to give
you some some scenarios just from the second half, the
very start of the second half, they're down fourteen to
seven to start the second half, they get the ball. Actually,
let me take it back further. Early in the game,
(09:17):
they had been stopping the Texans in the red zone
twice on third down, and both times they got called
for pass interference penalties, and the Texans score on the
very next play. Yep, So all of a sudden, they're
up fourteen to nothing. They got lucky with a Kayimi
Fairbairn missed field goal.
Speaker 2 (09:36):
So now they just.
Speaker 3 (09:37):
Said that felt like to me that was the game.
There's two third down calls like both times too, the
defense outplayed the offense and got off the field. Yeah,
but those calls flipped it. Like you just said, it
gave them fourteen points, but it should have been six.
And like you said, once you're up fourteen on Drake May,
who now has to push the ball downfield. You're dead,
(09:58):
like you said, that's if we would have saw the
game going that way in any way, we wouldn't have
taken it. I put it on me because I my
whole problem with that game was it was his first
star Drake Mate chat I said that to you, It's like,
we are backing this kid in his first start, and
we've seen how much better these other rookies have played
after their first start. It's just that first start is
such a brutal game. Even when we talk a little
(10:20):
bit about the Saints, and I told you I couldn't
do it. Just car he had money on Tampa. I
didn't want to betting again on a rookie making his
first start. Looked like the same with Drake May. He
had a couple of really good plays, but overall he's
on a really bad team. It doesn't matter if he's
making a couple of plays here and there. It's like
they need the bounces to go their way and the
referees calls to go their way, and we didn't get
any of that. And then the nail on the coffin
(10:41):
was Joe Mixon, like we talked, that's what we were
hoping for last week and to be back with the Bills.
You saw today, they're just a totally different team when
he's on the field. He's that good for them, and
he's that big of a difference maker in their run
blocking scheme where he just knows how to be patient,
pick his holes, and when he hits it, he hits
it so hard. It's just he's just so much better
(11:02):
than the other guys they've been running back there, Like
you immediately saw a difference once he was in the field.
So that's definitely as much as I want to be, like,
this was your whatever scoot for left pick. You love them,
I love them too. We talked last Sunday. I bet
Hi when they were plus seven. I thought it was
a good number, bad read, just a bad read overall,
being Drake May his first start and I should have
(11:23):
put more stock into Joan Mixon coming back for this one.
Speaker 2 (11:26):
Yeah, I was gonna say that.
Speaker 1 (11:28):
I feel like we completely screwed this one up because
we had the chance. This morning, like we were going
through the games and we were really focused on Green
Bay and Detroit, and at one point I said, are
we sure we don't want to take out the Patriots,
the Panthers, or.
Speaker 2 (11:45):
The Jets, and.
Speaker 1 (11:48):
We've sort of felt like we liked all those games
and we liked the spots for those teams, and here
we sit. The favorites were the ones that were easy,
and the dogs are the ones that lost the way
they always lose. The Patriots had they were down fourteen seven,
(12:09):
got the opening kick in the second half, Drake May
fumbles deep in his territory. Texans scored a touchdown. Patriod's
down twenty four to seven. They fumbled on the first
drive after going down twenty four to seven in their
own territory, leads to a field goal. They're down twenty
seven to fourteen. After they go down twenty seven to fourteen,
(12:31):
first play the next drive through a pick at their
own twenty two. Like every time they came close to
getting it in, they lost the way these teams lose,
which is what you get when you're betting on these teams.
But it occurs to me, and I will put this
note down. We didn't like We both love the Texans
with Joe Mixon, it's been a reason why we felt
(12:53):
they haven't been playing as well and one of the
reasons why we faded them. Why didn't either of us
think to say, wait a second, he's back. We knew
he was back at this point, he had been announced
he was going to play.
Speaker 2 (13:05):
Why didn't we even mention that?
Speaker 3 (13:08):
I mean, obvious answer is I had a decent amount
of money already bet on it. The luck rankings loved it,
which I put a lot of stake into, And there's
trends at pointed two taking this number. So if you
would have just going back in time to be like, well,
Joe Mixon is back this week out of said that,
who fucking cares it's his first game back, clearly would
not have known he was going to come in and
(13:29):
just wipe the floor with us. So, yeah, you're right,
it's like I wish I could have thought about back.
But again, it's not just you know, just the the
fading of the public for what we do. Sometimes it's
there's trends, there's what we're hearing the professionals are doing.
And like we always say, if the luck Rankings love
a spot, it's always gonna tilt us to it towards it.
(13:50):
So and I think you picked it for your best
bet on convinced me this morning, didn't you.
Speaker 2 (13:57):
I went with the Patriots.
Speaker 3 (13:59):
There's no we were dead. We were dead. It's it's
just picking teams. You get caught every now and then.
Speaker 1 (14:05):
It was a dead bet. It was a dead bet,
a great bet. Detroit at Dallas. We had Detroit minus
three and a half. We handicapped this one perfectly. Our
analysis was this team is on the rise. They are
still undervalued. The Cowboys are getting more credit than they
(14:25):
deserve for beating a bad Steelers team that could not
take advantage of offensively of Dallas miscues. We believed the
Lions would be physically dominant, and they were in.
Speaker 2 (14:38):
Every aspect to your credit, To your credit.
Speaker 1 (14:43):
When we were discussing the lines this morning, I was
so nervous about it being Chalky. I did ask if
we should take the Lions out because it was so
public and we had a bad line, and we had
been hearing noise all week about people liking the Cowboys,
about professionals life king the Cowboys. And what you said
to me was, Chalk is due. Thank god you were right.
(15:09):
Chalk is eight three and one today, heading into the
Senate football game, we need the Giants. We're going against
the chalk tonight. We're going against the chalk tomorrow. But
it was true today the Lions were on the right
side from the get go, that they were never nervous
in this game.
Speaker 3 (15:30):
I also never wavered on it. I mean I loved it.
I think we talked Sunday about it. I bet it
early just in case, I said, in case Dallas got
blown out Sunday night. They didn't. We came in Tuesday show,
you you believe me of your exact decision, and I
said to you, you hadn't. I was gonna make it,
Simon says. And then on Thursday show, I literally made
(15:51):
it my sputure let pick.
Speaker 1 (15:53):
You totally fucked me on that totally. You totally stole
it from me because you had first choice, and like
I'm like, you fucker.
Speaker 3 (16:02):
But that's my whole point of Like, there was never
a minute all week where I wasn't heavy betting this
Detroit team, Like I bet them all along. And the
scariest part was why was the number not moving? And
I tell you all the time, sometimes the books know
they're fucked and they know if they move it too much,
they'll get even more money on the other side because
(16:22):
then people will be like, see the professionals moved that.
That is the right side. Now let's keep going heavier
on Detroit. But even then, you know, it was just
a bad number I took. Like I talked to bookmakers Friday, Saturday,
and Sunday. All of them were saying it was like
ten times the amount of money was on the lines,
on the spread and all their parlays everything, And I
(16:43):
was just like, man, you guys are really taking a
standard on a bad Dallas team. I just did not
understand it. Yeah, thank god we hammered that one. We
needed it to go to and two. And like we
always say, when you when you bet on these good quarterbacks,
it's sometimes it's the best feel in the world because
it's like, man, that was a no doubter, or they
(17:04):
were just imposing their will the entire game. I think
even the first drive, Dallas went down and kicked the
field goal, and I just remember thinking, if if Detroit
goes down and scores a touchdown, me and chat are
good here. Not even that. They just literally ran it
down their throat their first drive, and it's like, Okay,
Montgomery's humming if once he gets going, you know, they're
gonna get it going through the air, and that's what happened.
(17:24):
I mean they almost put up fifty points once again.
So yeah, But we talked about with Dallas, they're coming
into this year. They're not that good of a team.
Can't run the ball, can't stop the run. Detroit, we
talked about them being my number one seed in the NFC.
Every week. They just keep proving they're the best team
right now. It's just when that offense is humming. I
(17:45):
don't care what defense in the league can't stop them
when it's indoors. So yeah, they're the team. Yeah, they're
the team. If they get that one seed, it's gonna
be crazy important. But I really can't wait to talk
next week's games because it's like your division right now,
every Divis game is going to be amazing, like all
your all the teams in the NFC North are so good.
I really can't wait to start getting these divisional matchups.
Speaker 1 (18:08):
So look, the NFC North right now was eighteen and
four again bred entering week seven. It's the best ATS
win percentage for any division through six weeks. In the
wild card eras.
Speaker 3 (18:24):
With a rookie Sam Darnold and second year starter Jordan Love.
That's pretty impressive.
Speaker 1 (18:29):
And by the way, Jordan Love, who missed multiple games,
Yeah right, And so like, the Vikings are five and
o ats, the Bears are five and one Ats, it's crazy.
Lions are four and one. Packers are four and two.
Caleb Williams. We're not going to spend too much time
on it, but the guy accounted for five touchdowns today.
(18:50):
Like he was freaking brawless, four touchdown passes, a touchdown run.
He's scrambling strategically on a beautiful, beautifully designed play where
it was like reverse like he had to fake a
reverse fake, a screen hit Cole Commit streaking down the middle.
The fort work was beautiful. The way he handled the
(19:14):
fakes was perfect. I mean, this team was insanely good.
Now all admittedly they played bad teams, but you gotta
beat bad teams, and they're looking really good doing it
right now, especially today. Here's the story out of this game,
as much as it was about how terrible the Cowboys
are and the Lions dominating on offensively. Aiden Hutchinson was
(19:36):
the leading candidate for Defensive Player of the Year. He
was leading the league in sacks. He was a guy
we both bet at fourteen to one to lead the
league in sacks. This team has finally figured it out
what their identity is as a physically dominant team, dynamic
athletically on both sides of the ball. He represents so
much of who they are. He went out with a
(19:57):
gruesome leg injury. Had to he cut it off. He
knew it immediately on his second sack of the game.
I don't know what happens now, Like I, how do
you as a professional better handicap this? Because it does
change their dynamic defensively.
Speaker 3 (20:16):
It does. No, it's brutal. I mean, it's hard to
put what it's going to mean to the model. I
mean maybe half a point, but I doubt that I'll
move it that much honestly, But we'll see he could.
But I would say for any fan, it just makes
you not think, No, I shouldn't say. It makes you
think that maybe this team come playoff time won't go
(20:36):
to the super Bowl, like a lot of people are
picking them for right, because you know there's any moments
where you need yeah guy, And we see it like
Nick Bosa in that Seahawks game. He took over right
once the team had to pass the ball. That's when
these guys who are just such game changers take over.
And how do you not suffer when you lose a
top five pass rusher. It's like, these guys are so rare,
(20:58):
so unique, that's why they make so much money. You
just can't replace something like that. So for me, I
don't know. I probably doesn't do anything for me divisionalwise.
I'm just gonna let my lines bet keep riding for
right now. But how does it not make you nervous
knowing that in the playoffs it's going to matter, like
him not being there is going to matter in these
really close games where every little snap is the difference,
(21:20):
and he is the ultimate game changer for that defense
in Detroit. So yeah, brutal for Detroit fans, big loss.
Speaker 1 (21:26):
Reddick is out there, been dropped by his agency, has
lost about twenty million bucks around.
Speaker 3 (21:31):
I mean, don't want to kind a big story about it.
But what happened to him in Japan? The man went
to Japan, skipped camp and has not been the same since.
Speaker 2 (21:41):
Like, so that's a whole other story. It's bizarre, It's
totally bizarre.
Speaker 1 (21:46):
The fact he was shuttled out of Philly is kind
of bizarre considering how well he was playing.
Speaker 3 (21:51):
Well he wanted new money, and how he was just like, Okay,
get him out of here before this comes into a problem.
And I never thought it would be like this though
He's a good dude.
Speaker 1 (22:00):
What I was going to say is that Trayvon Walker,
who was the number one overall pick of the Jags
taken instead of Aden Hutchinson, there was a mention in
a story this past week that could the Lions trade
for him as sort of the complementary rusher if the
Jags continue to fall out of contention. So who knows
(22:21):
what the Lions are going to do, but certainly it's
something that's going to be a conversation because this is.
Speaker 2 (22:26):
A team I like.
Speaker 1 (22:29):
Going into this week, I felt like they were the
number one team in the NFC, like what they had
done against Seattle and what I expected them to do
against the Cowboys. Most complete team changes a little bit,
so we've talked about a little bit so we don't
just spend too much time on it. But the conversation
we had this morning, like we weren't loving the lines
we were getting. They were about half point worse than
(22:50):
the market. Ultimately, it didn't matter. You know, we nearly
put the Raiders in and kicked out the Packers. We
decided we were overthinking it. The one game we screwed up,
think was the Chargers. Like it's similar to the Cardinals.
Last week we had the best number of any game
that was two and a half. We had great analysis
on this team all week. We loved it. Do you
(23:12):
think we passed because this was a game where while
we loved it, we were hearing whispers from professionals that
they liked the Broncos, Like, why did we end up
walking away from this one?
Speaker 3 (23:25):
It could be you're right, though we definitely did talk
about I mean we both bet it. We thought, yeah,
this was a funky number all week. It was very
telling by the sports books that this number was off
in favoring this Vegas I mean this Chargers team, where
us and the general public were like, well, this Broncos
defense is playing really good and bow Knicks has been
(23:46):
playing well enough not turn the ball over and keeping
them in games. And you know the last time we
saw this Chargers team, they were all banged up and
all out of sorts, especially Herbert, I mean talk about
night and day. Right, that was a great Herbert game,
you have a complete contry all the whole game. You know, Cowherd,
I know Cowhard's crazy theory about just taking the better QB.
Yeah yeah, yeah, I hate that theory, but today he's
(24:10):
a genius. Basically every game the better quarterback to Yeah,
a good day for Cowherd and his his betting. But
like he was right talking about this game with that
where it's like one side has the better quarterback and
right now the best weaponry is their offensive line. Like
when those guys are all healthy up front, they completely
(24:34):
neutralize the front seven of Denver, which is what's been
Denver's strength. And Patrick Sartaine, I believe went out in
the second quarter. I could be maybe it was a
third quarter, but no, really think you would think that's
not big of a difference, but it is. He's that dominant,
that shutdown of a corner that as soon as he
did go out, you saw every third down Herbert needed it.
He had guys streaking open in the middle for you know,
(24:56):
various reasons. So yeah, that that was good number A
game I wish we had put in. But at the
end of the day, I don't know for me to
convince you to put three favorites in. That would have been, Uh,
that would have been pretty tough. I think same for me,
Like for you to be like, let's go three favorites.
Speaker 2 (25:12):
This week, we wouldn't have done it.
Speaker 3 (25:14):
I know. We're just not built that way unfortunately, which
I hate, like even today again that we both had bets,
liked them all week in Detroit and just because they
were so public, for a second we thought about switching
them out, which is like, again I said it to
you in the moment, it was just like, we're overthinking
this right now. Don't switch any of these fucking guys out.
Let's just keep these five. And no matter what we
(25:37):
would have done, I'm just so glad we didn't put
that Raiders winning because that was just just a bad bet. Right,
So the charge one we did read write, but it
was just tough to put a third favorite in.
Speaker 1 (25:47):
I wish we had taken out Carolina. We had Carolina
five and a half. Shame on us, Shame on the Panthers. Uh.
The only thing I'll say is that this there was
a drive in the fourth quarter.
Speaker 3 (26:00):
One five against the spread this season.
Speaker 1 (26:01):
Yeah, this drive to start the fourth quarter epitomizes Carolina
and why we didn't deserve to win. They're in the
game the whole time. They're down twenty eight to twenty.
To start the fourth, they're playing against the worst rush
defense in the league. They have Tuba Hubbard to start
this quarter runs the ball four times for thirty four yards.
(26:23):
Run run, run, run, run, running all over this team.
Then they decide to get cute. They have Andy Dalton
roll out, throws it in completion. Next play, fake run,
Andy Dalton throws a pick at the falcons sixteen yard line.
Next drive, the Falcons go eighty four yards score put
(26:45):
away touchdown. And by the way, Algiers he was running
on one of the plays first got gang tackled at
the twenty two yard line of the Falcons didn't go
down until the thirty six. Like we get what we deserve.
I'm I'm ashamed. We shouldn't have done it. We were
(27:06):
so excited we thought, like, oh my god, I was like,
I got I got the Panthers plus six and a
half today, Like, fuck me, that's just ridiculous. How do
we not put the Colts in? We had the Colts
of plus three and we knew Joe Flaka was playing,
which if we knew Joe Flacca was playing on Tuesday
and we had the Colts of plus three, we would
(27:27):
have taken that in two seconds.
Speaker 3 (27:28):
Well it's two and a half contest, but I agree,
like we talked about it on convinced me. We're like,
oh my god, Joe flatc goes in, he's getting two
and a half against Will Levis. But no, the Panthers.
I don't want to talk about too much because I
just know our fans have already turned the show off
as soon as we brought them up. I'm sorry everyone,
I promise I don't even care. If they win five
(27:50):
straight in a row, we will never have them again.
Speaker 1 (27:53):
Yeah, all right, let's talk about some week seven lines,
thank you, that we're looking at. Like, obviously Casey is
minus one at San Francisco right now, every part of
my being wants to take San Francisco's.
Speaker 3 (28:08):
Bet three, six, five or plus one.
Speaker 2 (28:11):
Really, so it's move, it's moved, It's moved.
Speaker 1 (28:13):
Then it's moved since I came upstairs to my very
expansive third floor studio, the Tommy John Studio. So wow,
that's interesting. That is so all right, give me your
your hot take right now. It's not a game that,
like I was pegging we have to bet it, but
(28:34):
I didn't want to not talk about it.
Speaker 3 (28:38):
I mean, we're supposed to take the Chiefs now, but
I don't got to read on this one. I'll love
the number, dictate it where it's like, if it moves
up to Chief's been a bigger dog, no brainer. If
the forty nine Ers end up becoming the dog, maybe
I'll end up being the forty nine ers, but I
just like the dog on the side. It's just in
(28:59):
my mind this this number should be minus one and
a half Chiefs, Like, I think they're the better team
right now. I think the value is in the Chiefs,
So I'll take the one right now. But it's like,
if this is one and a half, you gotta find
a partner for a teaser. Teasing the Chiefs up to
seven and a half against the forty nine ers team
is like a gift. We see we talked about last week.
(29:19):
They're just the forty nine ers is not the same
team without Christian McCaffrey and yep, it's it's apparent that
you're putting a lot onder brock pretty shoulder. Now he's
going up against the Spags defense that you know they're
going to turn you over. If you're throwing the ball
a lot. It's just only a matter of time. He'll
he'll get you eventually. So yeah, I definitely think the
Chiefs keep becoming a bigger dog. This will end up
(29:40):
being one over five.
Speaker 1 (29:42):
Green Bay is a two and a half point home
favored against Houston. My immediate instinct is I like green
Bay less than field goal.
Speaker 3 (29:53):
Wow, my immediate I like Houston. So we're split.
Speaker 2 (29:56):
Interesting, All right, Well, give me give me your take.
Speaker 3 (30:01):
My take is I think the public will think like
you and maybe I'll maybe maybe you're right, this is
a good time we take it now, because I do
think I'll go up a little bit, That's what I think.
So I think maybe I'll be able to get a
better number on Houston. But yeah, that's that's that's a
fun game. You know, you're probably right. I bet you.
The Packers probably is the smart side to take right now,
(30:22):
just because it is under three. But I think this
is just a nice matchup for a Houston team that,
you know, say what you want about them, when when
CJ is in rhythm and that defense is getting pressure
from the outside, they're just really hard to beat Houston.
There's a reason they have only lost one game this year.
Speaker 1 (30:43):
CJ on the road. The Packers are a better team
than the Patriots. Jordan Love is a better quarterback than
Drake may We don't know from a defensive back point
of view, who's going to be back for Huon. A
lot of guys missed today as much against the Patriots.
(31:03):
But Matt LeFlore is a better coach than Girad Mayo. Like,
this is a very interesting game. I think you're getting
It would be very interesting on Tuesday when we talk
to see where the money is and how the line
is moved, because I think Houston's the public side here.
Speaker 3 (31:23):
That could be that's fair. I'm torn on this one.
Speaker 1 (31:26):
Uh, Detroit Minnesota. We just talked about, like this division
against the spread.
Speaker 3 (31:32):
And you know we have to do what's that? So
you know what we have to do? Tell me we
have to feed the Vikings. They haven't they've covered every week.
Speaker 1 (31:41):
Yeah, Detroit to a one point underdog. I like, I
was worried you were going to say take the Vikings.
Speaker 3 (31:47):
Well, we're supposed to do, because it's like every one
in their grandmom's gonna bet the Detroit team as a
dog here, but it's like we're indoors. They everything the
Vikings do well. Detroit could come at that with their run,
Like you can't do that style of defense against a
good team, a team that could run the ball. And
(32:07):
you know, I guess is a letdown spot for the
Lions after that big win on the road, a big
injury to one of their best defenders, and Minnesota coming
off a bye week here, But what a fishy number.
Because Chad's right, like we should want to take the Vikings.
The book's telling us to take the Vikings here, but
it's hard to me to back a Vikings team that's
(32:29):
just so inflated right now value wise, just because they've
covered every fucking week. It's it's mental. So yeah, it's crazy,
it really is. So yeah, My gut instinct right now
is I'm gonna throw a nice teaser with Detroit Lions
seven and a half and the Chiefs up to seven
right now, Like that's just an easy bet to make
the night. And you know books are gonna limit to
(32:51):
you a thousand bucks right now, I'm happy to make
a thousand dollar teaser. It's like that both those guys
as big dogs against these two favorites. I don't know
when we talked about this week, road teams have been
doing well even today, right, road teams really dominated the day.
Yeah yeah, home Field really you know, it's we talked
(33:12):
about it last year, like Homefield was down to two
and a half. Two, I mean, it's right there still.
So I don't know this This line feels like it's
a little too much respect to this Minnesota team, especially
at minus one and a half on about three six live.
Speaker 2 (33:25):
I do wonder if the books are are.
Speaker 1 (33:28):
Positioning this as they know that the public might come
in on the Vikings, not just because of Vikings have played.
Speaker 3 (33:37):
The Lions have to be the public side, right.
Speaker 1 (33:40):
I don't know because of Aiden Hutchinson, Like people will
You're right, people will look at this and think this
team is going to feel devastated. He is a very
popular player, right, Like he is a guy who people
loved when he was at Michigan. They love the narrative,
they love how dominant he has been, Like he's in commercials.
(34:01):
You don't get a lot of defensive ends other than
guys named Watt who are in commercials, right, right, So
I think all that is going to have an impact
on how the public looks at this team. And him
being gone, I think is going to send people to Minnesota,
especially with them being as good as they've been and
(34:22):
getting so much attention. So that'll be another one. It'll
be really interesting to see how things are trending. Forty
eight hours from now. I had two more games kind
of but one more specifically. It's a Sunday night game.
It's Tampa Bay as a four and a half.
Speaker 3 (34:41):
Point Monday night. There's Monday night games.
Speaker 1 (34:43):
Oh, it's two Monday nights Tampa Bay plus four and
a half at home against Baltimore. This Baltimore team is.
Speaker 2 (34:53):
Really good. They've still got so many issues defensively in
the middle of the field.
Speaker 3 (35:00):
Two year old coordinator is not getting the job done
right now. I think they need to make a change
of DC.
Speaker 1 (35:05):
They cannot stop anybody like that what Jaden Daniels was
doing to them. This is someone who had the under
and feels like he got kicked in the dick because
they they basically had the under. It was thirty twenty
and Jaden Daniels through a hail Mary thirty five yards
downfield that the Ravens got called for a pass interference,
(35:26):
they're down ten. They kicked the easy field goal. It's
thirty to twenty three. That's where it lands. I lose
the over. I lose the under And it was only
as close as it was because they couldn't stop them ever.
Speaker 3 (35:43):
Yeah, And I mean Baker, we're not giving them enough credit,
abou how well he's played this year. In Night Sayings game,
everything was going wrong. Mike Evans was hurt. I think
he had three picks. Maybe it was only two, it
felt like three. And he's still found a way to
win that game by double digits.
Speaker 2 (36:01):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (36:03):
It was really impressive because they had a total meltdown.
What were they up seventeen to nothing? Yeah, and the
Saints come all the way back through up twenty to seventeen.
Speaker 2 (36:10):
And they were winning like a few times they were up.
Speaker 3 (36:13):
Yeah. And you know a guy I love today, It
was Godwin. He went off I think at one hundred
and twenty five yards or two touchdowns.
Speaker 2 (36:20):
That acced me. That was your over on the prop today.
Speaker 3 (36:24):
Yeah, and it was one of my biggest bet brother
props where it's like Godwin and Mike Evans that combo
are just so dominant right now and with Baker, you know,
being in total zone. They're always going to be in
these games, Like it feels like they're always gonna be
able to eve me. If they're down double digits, they
can find a way to get back in these games
and stay scrappy. Now we talked about their defense. I
(36:45):
think the key to this defense is definitely them against
their run, like they can be passed on. So this
is gonna be another matchup of I think the team's
going to try and make Lamar beat them. And you know,
Lamar probably the MVP right now. Foot he stepped up
to the plate throwing this year, I mean he has
done really well passing the ball. So I would grab
(37:06):
the four and a half. I could see this being
going down to four three and a half by kickoff.
It's just even if the public's really heavy on this
Baltimore team, I just I can't see the professionals coming
in on this Buccaneers team, especially four and a half.
That's just too many points to me.
Speaker 2 (37:20):
So I wouldn't got that right now, Who am I missing?
Speaker 3 (37:25):
Just for games that jumped out to me that I
haven't bet it, or I shouldn't say haven't, but I
did bet it, but it's like very small. I took
the Rams five and a half against Vegas just in
case it is Aidan O'Connell. I can see keep going up.
They just look totally hopeless and this has got to
be it for this Rams team. I mean, they don't
(37:45):
get any more desperate after there by a week Cooper
Cups supposed to be back. We'll see if Puka's back. Unlikely,
but you know that right there can move this point,
this up to a point right moving up to six
and a half if both those guys are back. So
that's just a number I'm grabbing early. And they are
fully healthy offensively coming out of this bye a week
and I mean a game you know that just jumps
(38:08):
out to me just to grab it right now? Is
that Atlanta is minus two and a half right now
against Seattle at home? Don't we have to grab that
Atlanta at home under three against three.
Speaker 2 (38:19):
So that's why I didn't mention it.
Speaker 3 (38:22):
Yeah, it's two and a half right now, befre it's
minus one twenty. But like to me, that's something I'm
gonna bet right now, just because Seattle's defense needs to
show me they can get stops like every game we've
watched of them when they've played offenses that are just
aren't dumb. They can move the ball anyway they want.
And say which went about Atlanta's defense. Their offense is
(38:44):
really good right now. Like Kirk even if he's not
even putting any pressure on his back legs still on
that achilles, it doesn't matter. Like he's in total rhythm.
He doesn't need to throw the ball all the way downfield.
He can just keep picking you apart in between twenty
thirty yards and it's it's just been working with a
one two punch on their run game right now for Atlanta.
So I make this number three and a half. I'd
(39:04):
grab it right now if you could still get the
minus two and a half for Atlanta.
Speaker 1 (39:08):
All Right, We're going to take a deeper dive at Detroit.
With Detroit and Minnesota, we want to see how things
play out there. Obviously, Kansas City and San Francisco early
leans on Tampa Bay plus four and a half, the
Rams minus five and a half, Atlanta minus two and
a half. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented
(39:28):
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