November 10, 2024 • 45 mins
After wild games for both the Steelers and 49ers, Action Network NFL betting experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter settle in to discuss all things betting for NFL Week 10. Together they talk about a big victory for Buffalo, a last-second blocked field goal in Kansas City and so much more. We get a recap of all their weekly picks, good and bad, as they take accountability before Sunday Night Football kicks off in Houston. Plus, we get their early looks at NFL Week 11.
And for new listeners, The Favorites $100K Pro Football Pick 'Em Contest is underway! Presented by bet365, this totally free-to-play contest has over $100,000 in cash prizes up for grabs to our listeners this NFL season. Just visit Favorites.ActionNetwork.com to sign up for free and make your picks today. #Volume #Herd
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:08):
Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BED three
sixty five. We are part of the Volume podcast Network.
Live from our Tommy John Holmes Studios. I am Chad
Millman of the Action Network. This is our Sunday night episode.
We will review our favorite five picks that we put
into the Favorites contest. We will dissect why we left
(00:31):
some games out. We will preview the early lines we
already like for week eleven. I'm joined as always buy
my co host, my companion Mike and padre My BFF
professional better Simon Hunter.
Speaker 2 (00:43):
L sim in, Hey chat, how are we doing?
Speaker 1 (00:46):
Brother? There were points today where we were likely to
be four and zero. We were likely to be zero
to four. We were likely to be two and two
with the two teams that we lost that we lost with.
We were likely to be two and two with the
two teams that we won with. As it stands, we
(01:08):
are exactly two and two somehow today, Simon, the streak
of Favorites covering Road Favorites covering has come to an end.
At least that was true in the early window. Today. Reminder,
road Favorites were road favorites heading into today's games have
been sixteen games over five hundred. They were one and
(01:30):
three in the early window. The Favorites were road favorites.
The bad news we faded the one team that won,
and we backed one of the teams that lost. Those
are our two losses on the day. We'll get to
all of that. Catch every episode of The Favorites live
on YouTube. For those enjoying on YouTube, don't forget to
(01:51):
give us a like and subscribe to the Action Network
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by Bet three six five and now new Bet three
sixty five. Customers get one hundred and fifty dollars in
bonus bets when you bet five dollars sign up using
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five dollars to get one hundred and fifty dollars in
(02:12):
bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals,
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At Bet three sixty five. Must be twenty one or
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(02:33):
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All right, let's start with the road favorite we faded
because when we chatted this morning to decide on our
final picks, this was the one game you were all
of a sudden having second thoughts about, which completely threw me,
(03:00):
totally surprised me. I am talking about the Indianapolis Colts
plus four and a half against the Buffalo Bills. That
was the one routine that covered in the early window.
Give me your thoughts and why all of a sudden
you got antsy.
Speaker 2 (03:18):
Other than Josh Allen Joe Flacco, But it was Josh Allen.
It was just the Josh Allen part of it where
I was like, are we overthinking this one here? And
it clearly we did.
Speaker 1 (03:29):
The Bills make me want something, throw your hands something,
so throw your hair back.
Speaker 2 (03:35):
Come on now, the Bills. I'm making it happen now.
The better cub, even though it wasn't a great day
for him, he was struggling at one point. You know,
if you took away that pick six. It would have
been a thirteen ten game, the Colts would have the ball,
but he did throw that pick six, So seventeen thirteen
Joe Flacco had to keep it throwing the ball and
that was not a position we wanted to be and
(03:57):
we wanted them to run the ball, and instead they
had to pass the ball because they were They were
behind basically from the get go, and yeah, jadd chadd,
it's Appearum, Joe Flack goes turned into a pumpkin since
he's become the starter. This is the Joe flatkill we
all knew and love, who had retired. I couldn't get
a job with any team the NFL and then Cleveland
game of a job and he's been on a he
(04:17):
went on a crazy run. He's back to what he
was before that crazy run. And uh that that's unfortunate
because it was a good number, and you know at
four and a half. I liked the spot as well,
but at the simplest terms, the simplest base of it,
it was just like, are we overthicking this betting against
Josh Allen here? And yeah we did. We did that.
Speaker 1 (04:39):
Over Look, to put a finer point on it, I
have a little bit of a different take on this
game because it generally went if it was just if
we're taking out sort of the randomness of turnovers exactly
as we thought it would go. The Colts dominated on
the ground. When they weren't turning the ball over, they
(05:03):
were the not better side, but equal side. In that game.
There were two drives that mattered. Look Jonathan Taylor, by
the way average five point four yards per carry, had
more than one hundred yards. Like this team was grinding it.
And don't forget Joe Flacco throws the pick six. Then
(05:24):
they're in the red zone. He throws another interception. After that,
they were still up thirteen to ten in the first half.
So to me, this game came down to Josh Allen,
as you said, and it was in the back of
my head while I was watching Josh Allen do Josh
Allen things. Because on the second to last drive of
(05:45):
the first half, Josh Allen throws a thirty five thirty
four yard bomb to Dawson Knox and then next play
runs at thirteen yards for a touchdown. The Colts have
to punt on the next drive, and here comes Josh Allen.
It's second and ten from his twenty seven. He's rolling right,
his heels get clipped twice, keeps his balance before he
(06:09):
goes out of bounds. Classic Josh Allen, flick Mac Collins
forty four yards. They get a field goal. All of
a sudden, they're up twenty to thirteen, and like it's
still the Colts were in it the whole time. It's
twenty to thirteen. In the third quarter, they're driving fourth
in inches. Joe Flacco gets sacked. You're right it was
(06:32):
Josh Allen. You're right, it was Joe Flacco. But if
not for Josh Allen or Joe flaccoh we were right there.
Speaker 2 (06:40):
The bills make me a water. You even mentioned he
got stripsacked too, Flako, like he just three turnovers, he
just killed us. And we talk all the time, and
you bet ugly dogs, you cannot lose the turnover battle.
And not that I knew that we were dead and
when we threw that pick six, but I knew eventually
Josh would figure it out. It took him a half,
Like you said, he was bad to start at the game,
(07:00):
but once he gets in a groove. I mean, we
joke all the time. This guy is top three, top
two talent in the league for a reason. He's incredible,
and yeah, definitely a bad bet.
Speaker 1 (07:13):
It's it's almost unfair what he can do. So good
for the Bills, Good for Matt.
Speaker 2 (07:18):
Mitchell, good for you.
Speaker 1 (07:19):
Matt Mitchell really excited for him.
Speaker 2 (07:22):
Dirt wounds before we come on the show, and.
Speaker 1 (07:24):
That was kind of by the way, Matt Mitchell like.
Speaker 2 (07:27):
I'm the producer.
Speaker 1 (07:28):
I don't ever make comments about your picks, but I
knew that was a bad pick.
Speaker 2 (07:32):
Yeah, Matt.
Speaker 1 (07:33):
Thanks, Matt Mitchell really give us a lot of confidence
before the show. Let's go all right. So one of
the road favorites that we were all in on we
were so excited about. We're like, this is the spot
San Francisco at Tampa five and a half when it
opened six and a half in the contest Tampa coming
off a physical overtime game in Kansas City, traveling back
(07:59):
San Francis, getting Christian McCaffrey back, and this started out
so perfectly for us, Simon, we were nailing it.
Speaker 2 (08:10):
I mean, it did it did well. You're talking about
they're up ten to nothing in ten to three. Yeah, yeah,
but it's still if it never felt right. But you're
right at the end of the day. I mean, we're
gonna we're gonna talk about blaming this kicker. But the
red zone struggles continued though. That's what it is, just
bumming me out. It's like they just can't complete these drives.
They dominated Tampa in every way. I mean Tampa, they
(08:33):
they're they're so good at making the plays that they
need to. That's that kind of team they are. If
you let them hang into this game, they'll steal it
from you. Mean, they almost deal with the Chiefs the
week before. It's just they're really great at playing, making
teams play down to their level and keeping a minute.
But they also got crazy lucky, and we had the muffkick.
Like you said, they were dead, and they muffed that punt, and.
Speaker 1 (08:56):
To open the second half, the Bucks were down and
went three and out to start the second three and
out and the forty nine ers muffed the punt, and
then all of a sudden, the Bucks are back in
the game, and it's like, come.
Speaker 2 (09:11):
On still, though doesn't matter at the end of the day,
fucking Moody, like this guy misses three kicks and just
kills us. Like it's just so brutal. When we play
these numbers, these favorites and these key numbers, and we
don't get the lucky breaks where it's like, come on,
like this is the guy's worst career day, and so
happens a good day, we bet on him. So yeah,
(09:33):
I was. I was bummed by the end of the day.
We should have taken the five and a half and
we didn't get the five and a half. We got
greedy and thought we were smart in the book and
took the six and a half. Or at the end
of the day, the five and a half was probably
the right number, right, like he makes two of those
kicks at least they went by six. The five and
a half was the right number, and we got greedy
taking that six and a half.
Speaker 1 (09:53):
Well, look, even if if we had taken the five
and a half, even with all that, don't forget the
Bucks had a fourth down in their own territory. They
went for it. Nick Bosa is hanging on Baker Mayfield,
literally hanging on the guy. It's one of the best
defensive ends in all of football, one of the best
(10:14):
defensive players in all of football. Baker Mayfield is such
a fucking baller. He's stiff arming the dude dragging him
as he rolls right and he completes a miraculous fourth
down pass. If he doesn't do that, there was enough
time that even if the Niners had gained ten yards,
they were gonna have to kick field goal, like they
(10:35):
were gonna be conservative. But the Bucks had enough timeouts
that you and I both had the five and a half.
I was still like crossing my fingers as Baker is
about to go down, but before he completes that pass,
and like that weird slow motion moment where your entire
bet is in the balance. I was thinking, in all
(10:56):
those moments, it's like in a movie when everything goes
slow motion and like flashing. You're like, all right, this
is gonna be incomplete. This is how much time is left.
This is like the ten thousand hours of betting. You
know the situation. And I'm like, okay, we're gonna get
the ball back, We're gonna have to kick a field goal.
We'll be up by six. We're gonna lose this contest,
(11:17):
but at least we'll be in the five and a half.
Fucking Baker like not only completes that pass, but then
there's like three straight penalties. The Bucks tie it. I'm like, okay, great,
forty one seconds left, maybe we can get the six
in overtime. And then Jake Moody finally does his job,
like that was excruciating. That was an excruciating beat.
Speaker 2 (11:39):
It is, but like giving more love to Baker. He
has shown me so much right now these last couple
of weeks, like to go to toe with the Chiefs
on the road, then come home like you said on
short rest, and just keep his team in it where
he's just dragging these guys across the line finish line.
Speaker 1 (11:56):
It's crazy, like no Godwin, no Evans.
Speaker 2 (11:59):
No, like you should just lay down and die in
this matchup, and he just didn't go away. And it's
pretty crazy that. Not that Sam Donald's turned back into
a pumpkin, but you know what I mean, take away
Jefferson and his other weapons and see how Sam Donald
is on the Vikings now and it's just Baker is
not that. It's pretty crazy like Baker might actually last
year for the next five to eight years in this league,
(12:22):
which is just crazy to think where he was at.
He was on three different teams in a year span,
and now he's like a legit starter in this league.
So yeah, brutal loss for Tampa. That's kind of game.
They steal that one there. They could be easily be
a seventh seed for the playoffs, and now it feels
like they're slowly fading away from this playoff race.
Speaker 1 (12:41):
I wonder if there was a poll of quarterbacks who
were respected by players, like where Baker would land. You know,
it's going to be Josh Allen and Joe Burrow and
Patrick you know, and Lamar. But they also got to
love Baker. I would not be surprised even if he's
not a top ten quarterback in terms of talent, He's
(13:02):
a guy that everybody wants to play with. Here's the
question we have to ask ourselves. You're projecting a little
bit about Tampa Bay. Now what do we think of
the Niners at this point? They are not a team
that can get into any rhythm yet. And was today Okay,
this is your first game back with McCaffrey, maybe you're
being a little conservative, Kyle Shanahan said in the halftime interview.
(13:27):
They're pulling back a little bit on his snaps because
it was so hot. They didn't want to burn them
out in that first game. But like, what do we
think of the Niners right now, they're tough to.
Speaker 2 (13:38):
You even to get a read on, just because the
red zone struggles, and it's like, yeah, I want to
fade him as these big favorites, but we know if
they put together, they can roll teams by twenty one.
Like that's just the hard thing to say, is what
are we getting weak to week is? Right now? It
isn't consistent and trying to figure it out isn't consistent.
Like one week they're great and dominant like they were
against that Cowboys team. Right they came on that second
(13:59):
half when they were down ten to six, score twenty
one straight right, three drives, three touchdowns and when it's
when their kick a field goes like this and let
teams hang in. We've seen this season they've lost a
lot of those games, like they could have lost today
if Baker makes that completion. Oh yeah, not going to overtime.
I mean they probably win this game, as crazy as
that sounds. So yeah, they're a tough team to get reround.
(14:22):
We'll talk about their line coming up, but I'm assuming
they're gonna be a big favorite this upcoming week.
Speaker 1 (14:26):
It is a big, big number against Seattle. Touchdown favorite.
We're going to get into that one for sure. All right,
let's talk about a couple of games we won. Like
when we got to New Yar halftime, I was convinced,
all right, Pittsburgh's gonna blow this. The Colts are going
to cover jeesus, the Niners are going to find their way.
But this game with Pittsburgh kind of in the end
(14:47):
like ended up exactly the way we thought it would.
We just had to get there. We survived a failed
fake punt from the Steelers ten when they were winning.
We survived a fumble by the Steelers on the on
the Commander's one yard line when they were about to
go in for the go ahead score. We survived Jaden
(15:08):
Daniels multiple times. We were saved. This is why football
was so great. A Russell Wilson moonball to the newly
acquired and vilified by Aaron Rodgers. How lucky he got
out of New York. Mike Williams who made a Willie
Mays over the shoulder catch for the game winning touchdown. Ah,
(15:30):
it was chef's kiss.
Speaker 2 (15:32):
Yeah, it was really fun. And you know, of all
the games you picked this week, this is one that,
like both of us were a little hesitant about it
because Jayden Daniels factor, but I never really waivered. I
loved it. But like you said, we both bet heavy
on the three. I bet heavy on the three in
the two and a half, and I think we were
talking in the morning it already moved a one and
a half for two, and it's like, should we fade
(15:55):
this laid steam? I remember, not that you had cold
feet about, but like you were just a little unsure
of it.
Speaker 1 (15:59):
Yeah, it was like it just felt like to me, Simon,
like the raw rass spot that we know we have
to bet. That feels a little bit cursed going against
Jade and Daniels because everybody else was betting it too.
Speaker 2 (16:15):
Well, never know, will we You know, I'm a degenerate.
But it really came down just to the number and
the two and a half. I mean, once again, the
two and a half. How important it is. It was
going to land on it, like if Daniels drove the
field got that field goal, it lands on two and
it's like no worries. That's why we always talk about
how this is the most important number of football. I
really should try to make some money off this two
(16:36):
and a half thing. I feel like we're the only
ones that beat it to death. But it's such a
key number now in football. And yeah, that's the definition
of a Tomelin spot. And I'm with you that the
I never lost faith even when we were down in
every lot of states. But the fumble at the one,
and again this is coming off all these miskicks on
the forty niners. I'm just like, oh my god, oh
my god, are we really about to be one and
(16:57):
three where we should be three and one? And luckily,
like you said, the got the moon ball from Russell
Wilson and Pittsburgh. I hate that I doubted them. I mean,
I said it was a small bet to take the
around here before the season, but Tom got that over
all those years with no quarterback, and we've seen what
he can be now with just not even a great quarterback,
(17:18):
but someone that at least can be consistent back there.
And yeah, he put his neck off Russell Wilson and
it's paid off. I mean, they're what seven and two
outch I have to look at.
Speaker 1 (17:27):
Their record, but they're seven and two sign that's crazy, Like.
Speaker 2 (17:30):
They're one they're a game away now from going over
their win total.
Speaker 1 (17:33):
They're seven and two and they're three and oh straight
up against the spread as a dog, and uh, they're
in first place in their division. Right, Yeah, it's crazy,
you know, And obviously they've got a huge game coming up.
Speaker 2 (17:49):
Their schedule gets brutal from here on out. I mean,
that was obviously no easy game either, But it's just
that was a huge win. Like I said, that's that
win dictates. If the Commanders win that game, they could
easily have won the NFC. So they still can. Obviously
they play the Eagles on Thursday. But Pittsburgh, now, like
you just said, they're in the driving position of their division. Now,
that's just a huge win.
Speaker 1 (18:10):
They got Baltimore this week. Obviously they'll be home underdogs
against the Ravens. We're going to talk about that one too.
So this the one thing I want to say about
this is it was a weird game because it felt
like we were dominating the whole game except for a
sixteen play ninety one yard drive by Jaden Daniels to
(18:32):
end the first half and then an opening drive to
score time.
Speaker 2 (18:35):
I mean that drive, Like, again, we talk all the time,
he is so good though, Like that drive was not
vintage Peyton Manny but it felt like that, like this
kid in a two minute drill, it's something special and
it's just when you watch, you just know and it's like,
I know, I hate that he's in my favorite team's division,
but as something that just loves football, it's like, man,
I'm going to enjoy this for the next ten to
(18:55):
fifteen years. Jen Danels is just something special to watch.
Speaker 1 (18:58):
He is a amazing He's just so good. But that
was a really sweet victory for US. Yay Steelers, Yay
rah rah. All Right, Atlanta, New Orleans, New Orleans plus
three and a half, let's give it up for Saints
interim head coach and special teams coach Darren Rizzy because
(19:22):
after the game, Darren Rizzy admitted that when he got
to the stadium, he went to use the crapper in
the coach's locker room, the head coaches crapper, and he
stopped it up and the first thing he thought to
himself was this is going to be a crappy day.
(19:44):
That's that's what he admitted postgame. And the truth is,
we love an interim coach with a sense of humor
who also covers.
Speaker 2 (19:56):
Yeah, and I mean, you just saw it was just
he I love first time that coaches right because he's
so emotional in silent every play he's living and dying.
I mean, every time they missed a kick, he was
going berserk, which cracked me up. And it's like, man,
I love there's still guys like this coaching like not
the boring always kind of pissed off guy and the
side like literally guy having fun with real emotions. But
(20:19):
that was a total spot like that same steam is
so bad. And they were so good in this game
in so many different ways. Defensively, they stepped up their
Carr's deep ball was incredible and another play that I
thought we were dead on was Kamar dropping that easy
walk in touch under the game.
Speaker 1 (20:38):
Yeah, and so the game just so like context. They
had a third and one, they complete, they get a
first down and it's over. Alvin Kamara does not have
anybody within twenty yards of him, and he and he
drops the ball, just drops it. I thought, oh fucking a,
it's gonna end twenty four to twenty, or it's going
(21:00):
to go to overtime and we're gonna lose twenty six
to twenty. No.
Speaker 2 (21:03):
I definitely felt the twenty fourth twenty It's like you
just gave Kirk the exact life he needed. The defense
is tired, they'll be able to get it here. And
now the defense really stepped up. I mean, I want
to give up seventeen points to this high flying Atlanta team.
And you know, Robinson had an incredible game. I don't
know if you catched a couple of theseus, but yeah,
he was sick incredible and like that was the main
(21:25):
game I had on my main TV. You know, that
was like my favorite bet today on Yeah, convinced me,
and it's like, you know, feeling good right there. They
started out Saints looking great and then they're not doing
anything in the second half. I think they only scored three
points in the whole second half and we still held
on to the cover. So really fun swept bet. We
might take a week off from Ben the Saints team, you.
Speaker 1 (21:47):
Think, because right now they're going to be three point
home favorites against the Cleveland Browns. So it might actually
not be a game we take off in which we
have to bet the return of Jameis Winston. That's true
to New Orleans in a revenge game, we're getting shuttled
out of town. This was a huge luck game, the
(22:09):
biggest luck game board for the luck rankings, and it
almost played out exactly like that. The Falcons missed multiple
field goals. Talk about you know, your fate being on
the foot of kickers. That included Young Wayku missing the
(22:31):
game time kick with six point thirty left in the game.
We got a little bit back because of the Alvin
Kamara drop, so it was a little bit equal.
Speaker 2 (22:42):
I wouldn't mind him making it though, because I was
I told you I was worried about that touchdown, So
him making the field goals have been nice because they
would have just been up three, and I'm like, okay,
Like now we have Derek Carr taking those deep shots
and if he misses, who cares. We still cover our number.
But yeah, I had a decent amount on their money
line as well, especially on our money line around Robin,
and I thought we would get there with the Saints.
(23:02):
When they put up three in the second half, it's
like I didn't feel like we deserved it or even
had the chance to get in there. But once again,
their defense really stepped up. That Saints team, and we
talk all the time that's the difference of having a
coach you like and you want to play hard for.
And that felt like a game where the team played
hard for that coach, where you know, there's some other
games you could talk about if you want, where he
just felt like guys simply quit on their team and
(23:24):
their coaches.
Speaker 1 (23:25):
Last stat for you, the Saints averaged ten point seven
six yards for passing attempt. That's great, that is insane.
Speaker 2 (23:36):
And shoutout we only won one by three.
Speaker 1 (23:38):
Yeah. Shout out to Nick Giffen, by the way, who
not only had this in luck rankings, also had the
Cowboys Eagles under in the luck rankings, also had the
Jaguars vikings in the luck rankings that were under also
had He talked about this on convinced me this morning.
If you're not watching, you're missing because he had Derek
(23:58):
Carr under half an interception in this game and had
a great breakdown about how the Falcons can't get pressure,
so when Car isn't pressured, he's less likely than the
league average to throw an interception. All right, we just
talked about some teams that really quit, and so that's
going to be impacting how we think about them going forward.
(24:20):
We have the Rams minus one and half tomorrow night.
Thank God. Our last game out was the Jets minus
two and a half. Do you want to talk about that.
Speaker 2 (24:30):
For a second? Swinging and miss that was a bad one.
And it's like typical where like you always joke about
you're getting bullied. But I wish I could have dug
in my feet on it. But I got where everyone
was coming from and what their view was, and I
should have trusted my instincts and thought this line should
be three. With Arizona, the books had hung a bad line. Instead,
(24:51):
I went against that thought I had made a bad
read that the professionals were smart on it, and they weren't.
That is a team that is simply quit in everywhere.
And Arizona the Kyler experience. When he's on, he is on.
Like in that game, I think at one point he
was twenty for twenty one passing like he.
Speaker 1 (25:10):
Was really locking seventeen straight past as new Arizona Cardinals record.
He might have completed more, but that's when I saw
the record.
Speaker 2 (25:17):
No, he was really impressive. And you know we always
joke like you can tell a lot from the early
in the game, how two teams are they drove the field,
got two touchdowns, Jets drive the field, get two field goals,
and like we always say, it's over from that point forward.
I think they eventually went up twenty one to six,
and offensively they could have done whatever they wanted. Arizona,
(25:39):
they just looked like such a better team Defensively. We
talked about it like they're a team of no names.
I mean, they have Buddha Baker obviously, but yeah, Gannons
really turned that defense around into his identity of they
give up yards, but they don't surrender those touchdowns, and
they've kind of had that identity this whole season. So impressive.
It's what four straight wins for him now the Cardinals
(26:00):
and Kyler so I keep waiting there for a de
fall the other way, but it's it's not happening. This
is a legit team. They deserve to be in the
winning the NFC West right now. Like they're the best
team in that division, no doubt.
Speaker 1 (26:12):
Six and four. Two things. One. Anytime you say Buddha Baker,
he's one of the best defensive players in football, and
this year he's sort of playing like it. I always
feel whenever I hear my kid and I whenever we're
watching these games, we're always like you know so and
so college, John Simpson College, you know, and we'll mention
(26:34):
like the most random people to see if we can
get it right. He said Buddha Baker in my head,
I'm like Buddha Baker, the way he plays, he should
have gone to LSU or Alabama. I'll open it up
to the YouTube chat as well as Evan to see
if anyone can get the right college for Buddha Baker.
(26:54):
Speaking of teams, Wow, someone just got it Washington. It's right.
Speaking of teams that quit, boy Dallas Cowboys, thank god
we didn't have a conversation about putting them in the contest.
Speaker 2 (27:10):
No, and I won't even tell you. I won't even
tell the people the other game you were trying to
get in there because you were losing your goddamn mind.
Speaker 1 (27:15):
No, no, no, Well, you're right. I was tempted by
the Titans. All week we had avoided the Titans. I
was tempted by the Titans just because I was going
to mention it was the one game that Nick Giffin
and the luck rankings completely whiffed on and all week,
like he had been hyping it in the slack channel,
(27:37):
I was saying, this is gross We're not going to
do it. He talked about her to convince me we
avoided it. I'm proud of us, so good for that.
Speaker 2 (27:47):
You're like, I know, it's gross, let's just put it in.
It's gross.
Speaker 1 (27:51):
No, no, no, no, it wasn't. I wasn't that cavalier. It
were like, if we're going to take one out. You said,
if we're gonna take one out, you'd rather with the Jets,
And I said, really, over the types And we ended
up leaving it as it is with the Rams for
tomorrow night. The one game that I feel like we
missed on and we just sort of were cowardly even
(28:13):
though we handicapped it perfectly, was the Broncos We need.
Speaker 2 (28:19):
Yeah, Yeah, that was really fun. I mean we didn't
even talk about that. That was by far the most
insane game of the day. As much as I want
to take a victory lap on Dallas sucking and the
Eagles winning, I don't want to punch down right now.
Our producer Gift knows he doesn't need it. He doesn't care.
I don't think Cowboys care right now. They're just like, yeah, whatever,
we'll get a good draft pick. Yeah, Like you know,
(28:40):
Kansas City Chiefs. We joke all the time they're gonna
get caught by some team, but they just find a way.
And what was it did a get was Denver up
fourteen three at one point? Yeah, okay, there was something
like that.
Speaker 1 (28:56):
They were up. I can't remember what it was, but
they were definitely Yeah, it was fourteen to three.
Speaker 2 (29:01):
I think they're beating the crap out of them, and
somehow Spags makes the adjustments. Bo Knicks, who I think
he started the game, you know, throwing for one hundred
ninety two yards to two touchdowns. At that point, they
figured him out and they shut it down. I don't
think he scored another point the rest of the game, right,
They won sixteen fourteen, So they did. Yeah, even on
their worst day, which was today, like we talked about,
(29:21):
they came off a short week overtime game. They looked sluggish,
they looked tired, They did not play well. Still played
a full game. And that's what's so special about this
Chiefs team. And you know, with joke all the time
about that Brady run with that perfect team and the
pressure you feel that that team was not coming off
(29:42):
of anything like this is a team coming off two
Super Bowls, now they're a perfect nine to zero. This
Kansas City team, it is truly mental how special this
team is and this everything between the coaching and the
players everything, I know, we're gonna we're gonna going to
keep doing what we've been doing. Is we take more.
Holmes is a short favorite, and we faced him as
a big dog, and I'm with you, I'm pissed me
(30:04):
to have it in there because it just it went
right into what we talked about him. He plays these
ugly teams close and he beats up on the good teams.
Like that's the thing about Mahomes, it's it's bizarre. Like
the forty nine ers, they beat the crap out of them.
They played really good against the Ravens that game. Today
they did not play good. It was tough in every way,
the denvers all over them, and still they found a way.
(30:26):
And yeah, you can say they got lucky, but that
was a blocked field goal. That's not luck, that's coaching scheme.
It's something they saw on tape and they attacked it.
So yeah, that was That was probably the most fun game.
That was the game. I definitely I jumped out of
my scene shot it because I was like Holy shit.
I can't believe they blocked that because I thought they
were dead too, just like the announcers. So pretty crazy
Chiefs fans.
Speaker 1 (30:46):
All right, well, let's use that to transition into the
week eleven games. Reminder, Simon and I are two and
two heading into Money Out of Football. We're on the
Rams at minus one and a half in the contest.
The numbers moved up obviously tree and by the way,
that ultimately was the factor. Like we liked the number
on the Rams at one and a half, it was
two and a half in the contest this morning, so
(31:07):
we decided to lock in that closing line value Week eleven.
I don't even want to say the games I like,
because the game that I want to talk about is
the game that you just mentioned, the Chiefs and the
Buffalo Bills. In Buffalo, the Chiefs are one point favorites.
Pro Football's two superpowers renew their classic rivalry. Everything says,
(31:32):
of course, we want to take the Bills. Yet we
can't because we're going to have to take Patrick Mahomes
as a one point favorite on a now fifteen game
winning streak with a score differential in their undefeated season
so far of fifty six points, which is the lowest
(31:54):
score differential of any team that has ever started undefeated
this many games. It's why we bet against the Chiefs
this past week because they are not blowing teams out.
But like, what the fuck do we do here? Simon?
Speaker 2 (32:12):
This is easy bet. I am on bet three six '
five in New Jersey. The line has flipped to plus
one and a half on the Chiefs. Hammer that number
on the Chiefs. We talked about you just you don't think, well,
Mahomes is the dog. Don't ever think it. You take
the number. So I could have been talking into this
that the Bills where the dog. That's where the value
(32:32):
would have been. The profession has already come in. They've
already hit this number. It's plus one and a half
right now for this Chiefs team. Give it to me.
I mean, if I could put more than a thousand
bucks on a teaser, this would be a huge teaser
play for me. It's seven and a half on this
Chiefs team. But unfortunately that's not gonna be happening for
the next at least two or three days. So I'll
(32:52):
grab it early. This Chiefs one and a half, I'll
grab as much as I can even if this keep
going up like we've seen it before, right, it was
like that forty nine er scenario they go to two
and a half by kick golf. So maybe I'll get
a little greedy and weight. Maybe this more Bills money
will come in. But we don't overthink these spots. We
take mahomes the dog. Even if we lose this game.
Long term, it's a winner.
Speaker 1 (33:13):
Yeah, I can't argue with it. Even if they were
at one point favorite, I still probably would have played
the Chiefs.
Speaker 2 (33:20):
We know this Bills team though. That's another thing else
pissed off. Today. We talked about you bet the Bills
against bad teams and nothing to stand out more this year.
They've just beat up on bad teams this year. But
we said they struggle against good teams this year and
they've played good competition. They've struggled against them. So trying
hard out to ever think this one because I am
with you, I don't want it right away. I wanted
to be on the Bills because I thought we're gonna
(33:40):
get them as a dog. But no, the professionals are
the public whoever came in early has dictated this happy
to bet this Chiefs team at plus one and a half.
Speaker 1 (33:48):
Right now, I know the right side is the winning side,
shout out Scooch. But the Colts were the right side
in that game. They cover that game if they don't
have two interceptions, a fumble and all that that ends
in a sack and by the way, and a touchdown
(34:11):
to Josh Downs, their best receiver that he drops, that
is a walk in touchdown.
Speaker 2 (34:20):
I agree with Matt Mitchell who says it's a ludicrous tack.
Speaker 1 (34:23):
What does Matt Mitchell know? We also mentioned the Niners.
Niners are seven point favorites at home against Seattle. I
don't know that I've seen enough from the Niners at
this point to make them a seven point favorite in
the divisions. The team coming off a bye.
Speaker 2 (34:46):
Crazy. It's crazy because even if they covered today, said
they did cover, I would make this line like six
and a half. But they didn't cover it. So it's like,
how do you not make this line five and a half.
It's seven? It opens at seven, So I I guess
I'm a sucker. I'm missing something here. I'll take the
seven right away. Like you just said, who are this
forty nine ers team to be getting that seven? I
(35:06):
know the Seahawks have been bad and everything. We get it,
But like Chad just said, they're coming off a bye
in a divisional game. That's a must win for the
Seahawks team. They are so desperate they know this is
their season in this game. So, yeah, the seven, this
has to come down. Is this really gonna go up
to seven and a half? Is this really gonna keep
going up? I don't think so. I think it's gonna
go down by Tuesday. So I'm with you on that one.
(35:28):
I'll grab the seven. Now.
Speaker 1 (35:30):
The other game that interested me, I know, we just
talked about it. I don't know how we don't take
Cleveland plus three against against New Orleans. It's in New Orleans.
I know it's jamis, but I don't have a fear
of that one. Like the come down for the Saints,
it's still the Saints. It's still a team that just
(35:51):
lost seven in a row. It's a team that had
the perfect spot and still, by the way, needed a
lot of luck to win this game. Like that defense
that the Browns have is the epitome of the defense
that gives Derek Carr a hard time. If I can
get the Cleveland Browns as an underdog with one more
(36:15):
week of Jamis prepping to take over. I'm okay with that.
Speaker 2 (36:21):
Yeah, I'm laughing because that week, I don't know how
it helps Jamis. Either we're gonna get a good Jamis
Day or getting a bad Jamis day. Mean you know that.
Bet No, we'd have no idea what we're gonna get
out of them. But I agree with you. This is
more to me just about playing the number. Yeah, I
don't know if I'm gonna bet this one for real
this week because there's other games I do like a
lot more. And again Jamis, I still feel like, I mean,
(36:42):
you got away when I gets the Ravens and it's
like I can't get over that. The Kyle Hamilton drop
just always will pop in my head with him for
the rest of the year, where it's like that's who
he is, Like that really is who he is. He's
gonna throw a bunch of amazing passes and then just
one absolute meatball right to the defender that either they're
gonna catch it or thing's going to go right through
their hands. So yeah, play the number. I'm already seeing
(37:03):
a couple two and a half's pop up, Chad, So
you're actually on the smart side round. This number is moving,
So I would say, if you agree with me and Chad,
definitely grab the three now because it's going down.
Speaker 1 (37:13):
What do we do with Pittsburgh and Baltimore. Pittsburgh is
a three point underdog at home. It's the raw ras spot. Yeah,
Baltimore is streaking right now. It's it feels like we're
tempting fate. I know, percentage wise, we're supposed to keep
betting the Steelers, but it does feel like we are
(37:33):
tempting fate a little bit. And also, here's one thing
that I think is really important. The Steelers have been
much better when Alex Highsmith was playing. He went out
at the end of the Commander's game and was walking
on one leg off the field the Steelers defensive end.
So I do think I'm not quite anxious to bet
(37:55):
it until I know his status.
Speaker 2 (37:57):
Yeah, I'm against total speculation, but he'll look like he
stepped on Daniel's ankle and rolled his own ankle.
Speaker 1 (38:02):
Yeah, rare.
Speaker 2 (38:04):
That's a quick turnaround. So I'm with you on that.
That's definitely negative, but it's another game where you can,
if you want, you can be patient. I'm gonna grab
the three now, just because in the case of professional
side's coming on Pittsburgh. But this is gonna be a
pros rust Jos. I mean this is every year we
do this. Every year we're in the exact spot me
and you have bet this number at three, three and
(38:25):
a half on Mason Rudolph or Kenny Pickett and Pittsburgh
at home against Lamar and we've covered that number. So
I know you're I get what you're saying right now,
but you're gonna come around. This is no doubt this
is gonna be one of our picks. But it's all
about the value. If this is two and a half,
I have no issue now forcing this one in at
three and a half. It's too tempting to pass on
that number, especially where we just know this this Ravens team.
(38:47):
You know what, top two, number one offense in football,
terrible defense, They're just terrible. Like Chase, I know he's special.
He looked like he was playing at different speed and
I know that its youth is the game changer because
again when the Eagles played against him, Mitchell shut him down.
Like when you have a young, fast corner. It's different
with Chase, though he looks so much faster than this
(39:09):
secondary and now they might be without Kyle Hamilton on
the Ravens side. How do we not factor that in
as well? That's an even bigger loss than anything when
we can add into that, Like, yeah, I'm trying not
to overthink this one. I think we should take the
three now because I do see the professional money coming in.
But people out there that are just one one better,
they only bet one time a week. You can't be
(39:31):
patient because I could see this on up the three
and a half. Because this just feels like such a
public side of this Ravens team. I mean, we talk
all the time about that trend Lamar three and under.
It's usually an auto bet for me and Chad. Just
in this spot, it's not.
Speaker 1 (39:43):
You were talking about Jamar Chase, by the way, I like,
for a second, I'm like, Chase, who is he talking?
And then I remember Chase Chase Chase in the Bengals.
What other games are you looking at? Uh?
Speaker 2 (39:55):
Just it's just like, Okay, these games pop out. We
said we thought the that's quit. The Jets right now
are minus three against the Colts. How do you feel
like rolling it back with Joe Blackowa.
Speaker 1 (40:05):
I feel fine, it's on my list. I almost felt
like I was going to be ridiculed, I know, but
I was kicked off the show if I mentioned taking.
Speaker 2 (40:17):
We're just betting numbers here, so that that's an early
number I'll grab now, just because that Jets team really
looked like they quit on me that.
Speaker 1 (40:26):
I was talking to Coward. I was doing his show
on Thursday, and I told him the wise guys are
on the Jets and he goes, no, he goes why,
and I gave him all the reasons. He goes, yeah,
all those makes sense if they've got a coach who's
good and a team the police, but they don't. And
you know what, he was one hundred percent.
Speaker 2 (40:46):
Yeah, well that's great. Okay, just ones that jumped out
to me. Chargers are minus two and a half at
home against the Bengals Sunday night. Yep, that's really interesting.
That number is really interesting.
Speaker 1 (40:59):
I wrote it down own. My first instinct with Cincinnati
plus two and a half.
Speaker 2 (41:06):
Wow, all right, My first instinct was Charger is because
it's so the Bengals is so tempting. I thought that
would be a pick. So that's why I have a
modeled at So that's again another game where I'm just
questioning my own model because it's like, maybe I'm giving
too much respect to this Bengals team because they have
had some really close losses, but when they play against
really good teams other than the Ravens, they've kind of
(41:27):
been rolled, right, like the Eagles absolutely rolled them. So
that's that to me, is just the number that popped out,
like is this really good? We're gonna go up to
three plus three. They're gonna get so much Bengals money
against this Chargers team. So that's just an interesting number
that jump.
Speaker 1 (41:42):
I expect T Higgins to be back.
Speaker 2 (41:45):
That's fair if he is back now changing my opinion,
but if this is two and a half and there's
no T Higgins, I love this Chargers like they match
up really well, not only offensively, but defensively I think
as well, Like they're their front can attack this Bengals front,
like we know that's the Bengal's weakness. They just can't
block for him right now. So just an early line
that jumped out.
Speaker 1 (42:05):
To me orders giving up a craptastic garbage time back
door overcover to the Tennessee Titans with forty one seconds
left today.
Speaker 2 (42:17):
That was brutal.
Speaker 1 (42:19):
That was in that moment. My dog started whining because
she wanted like a little chewy, and I was like,
I cannot do this with you right now. And my
son was like, why are you being so mean to her?
And I didn't want to be like because I just
lost this fucking total because will Levis did the one
(42:42):
thing he can't do for fifty nine fucking minutes. Yeah,
I tried to keep myself together. I just said, she's
I don't want to hear the whining right now. That's
all I said.
Speaker 2 (42:51):
Before we go. Just got to get your earlier read
on it, because I'm betting. I already bet the Packers
a minus six and a half. What's your view on this? Like,
isn't that a huge smash back for Green Bay? It
could not be worse vibes for Chicago it is, and
now your coming off of bye week, dude, it.
Speaker 1 (43:10):
Is such bad vibes there. The fact the Bears hired
the offensive coordinator, they hired, they kept the coach. They
have wasted a year of Caleb Williams. They have possibly
wasted two years because next year he will have to
unlearn all the bad habits, rebuild chemistry with a team
(43:33):
and a receiver corps and DJ Moore specifically, who has
clearly lost faith in the guy, and he will have
to not be trigger happy because he is afraid that
he is going to get his head taken off by
teams like the New England Patriots, who sacked him nine
times today. By the way, another excruciating beat, Sean Kerner
gave out twenty nine and a half pass attempts under
(43:56):
Caleb got to thirty on the last player of the game.
So it like this team is terrible. But six and
a half is a lot of points in the division
at home. That's my take. So I'm not I'm not ready.
Speaker 2 (44:11):
I'm on the other side. I'm taking Green Bay now
because I think this is gonna go up.
Speaker 1 (44:15):
Okay, I'm not saying I'm not gonna wanna eventually get there.
I'm not in the same place.
Speaker 2 (44:20):
Your hesitation, I get it.
Speaker 1 (44:22):
Yeah, not there because Jordan Love hasn't been amazing. He's
been giving the ball up a lot, he's banged up,
He's thrown a lot of picks. So there's a lot
of variants there in a big number in the division.
All right, exciting exciting stuff as a reminder. The Favorites
podcast is presented by Bet three six five and now
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(44:44):
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(45:05):
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(45:26):
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Speaker 2 (45:37):
Love You.
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Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or
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Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BED three
sixty five. We are part of the Volume podcast Network.
Live from our Tommy John Holmes Studios. I am Chad
Millman of the Action Network. This is our Sunday night episode.
We will review our favorite five picks that we put
into the Favorites contest. We will dissect why we left
(00:31):
some games out. We will preview the early lines we
already like for week eleven. I'm joined as always buy
my co host, my companion Mike and padre My BFF
professional better Simon Hunter.
Speaker 2 (00:43):
L sim in, Hey chat, how are we doing?
Speaker 1 (00:46):
Brother? There were points today where we were likely to
be four and zero. We were likely to be zero
to four. We were likely to be two and two
with the two teams that we lost that we lost with.
We were likely to be two and two with the
two teams that we won with. As it stands, we
(01:08):
are exactly two and two somehow today, Simon, the streak
of Favorites covering Road Favorites covering has come to an end.
At least that was true in the early window. Today. Reminder,
road Favorites were road favorites heading into today's games have
been sixteen games over five hundred. They were one and
(01:30):
three in the early window. The Favorites were road favorites.
The bad news we faded the one team that won,
and we backed one of the teams that lost. Those
are our two losses on the day. We'll get to
all of that. Catch every episode of The Favorites live
on YouTube. For those enjoying on YouTube, don't forget to
(01:51):
give us a like and subscribe to the Action Network
YouTube page. As a reminder, The Favorites podcast is presented
by Bet three six five and now new Bet three
sixty five. Customers get one hundred and fifty dollars in
bonus bets when you bet five dollars sign up using
promo code Favorites, deposit ten dollars place to bet for
five dollars to get one hundred and fifty dollars in
(02:12):
bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals,
player props, futures, and more. Whatever the moment, it's never ordinary.
At Bet three sixty five. Must be twenty one or
older and president in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina,
New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia or eighteen and older in
(02:33):
Kentucky gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler or one
eight hundred bets off in Iowa terms, conditioned restrictions apply.
All right, let's start with the road favorite we faded
because when we chatted this morning to decide on our
final picks, this was the one game you were all
of a sudden having second thoughts about, which completely threw me,
(03:00):
totally surprised me. I am talking about the Indianapolis Colts
plus four and a half against the Buffalo Bills. That
was the one routine that covered in the early window.
Give me your thoughts and why all of a sudden
you got antsy.
Speaker 2 (03:18):
Other than Josh Allen Joe Flacco, But it was Josh Allen.
It was just the Josh Allen part of it where
I was like, are we overthinking this one here? And
it clearly we did.
Speaker 1 (03:29):
The Bills make me want something, throw your hands something,
so throw your hair back.
Speaker 2 (03:35):
Come on now, the Bills. I'm making it happen now.
The better cub, even though it wasn't a great day
for him, he was struggling at one point. You know,
if you took away that pick six. It would have
been a thirteen ten game, the Colts would have the ball,
but he did throw that pick six, So seventeen thirteen
Joe Flacco had to keep it throwing the ball and
that was not a position we wanted to be and
(03:57):
we wanted them to run the ball, and instead they
had to pass the ball because they were They were
behind basically from the get go, and yeah, jadd chadd,
it's Appearum, Joe Flack goes turned into a pumpkin since
he's become the starter. This is the Joe flatkill we
all knew and love, who had retired. I couldn't get
a job with any team the NFL and then Cleveland
game of a job and he's been on a he
(04:17):
went on a crazy run. He's back to what he
was before that crazy run. And uh that that's unfortunate
because it was a good number, and you know at
four and a half. I liked the spot as well,
but at the simplest terms, the simplest base of it,
it was just like, are we overthicking this betting against
Josh Allen here? And yeah we did. We did that.
Speaker 1 (04:39):
Over Look, to put a finer point on it, I
have a little bit of a different take on this
game because it generally went if it was just if
we're taking out sort of the randomness of turnovers exactly
as we thought it would go. The Colts dominated on
the ground. When they weren't turning the ball over, they
(05:03):
were the not better side, but equal side. In that game.
There were two drives that mattered. Look Jonathan Taylor, by
the way average five point four yards per carry, had
more than one hundred yards. Like this team was grinding it.
And don't forget Joe Flacco throws the pick six. Then
(05:24):
they're in the red zone. He throws another interception. After that,
they were still up thirteen to ten in the first half.
So to me, this game came down to Josh Allen,
as you said, and it was in the back of
my head while I was watching Josh Allen do Josh
Allen things. Because on the second to last drive of
(05:45):
the first half, Josh Allen throws a thirty five thirty
four yard bomb to Dawson Knox and then next play
runs at thirteen yards for a touchdown. The Colts have
to punt on the next drive, and here comes Josh Allen.
It's second and ten from his twenty seven. He's rolling right,
his heels get clipped twice, keeps his balance before he
(06:09):
goes out of bounds. Classic Josh Allen, flick Mac Collins
forty four yards. They get a field goal. All of
a sudden, they're up twenty to thirteen, and like it's
still the Colts were in it the whole time. It's
twenty to thirteen. In the third quarter, they're driving fourth
in inches. Joe Flacco gets sacked. You're right it was
(06:32):
Josh Allen. You're right, it was Joe Flacco. But if
not for Josh Allen or Joe flaccoh we were right there.
Speaker 2 (06:40):
The bills make me a water. You even mentioned he
got stripsacked too, Flako, like he just three turnovers, he
just killed us. And we talk all the time, and
you bet ugly dogs, you cannot lose the turnover battle.
And not that I knew that we were dead and
when we threw that pick six, but I knew eventually
Josh would figure it out. It took him a half,
Like you said, he was bad to start at the game,
(07:00):
but once he gets in a groove. I mean, we
joke all the time. This guy is top three, top
two talent in the league for a reason. He's incredible,
and yeah, definitely a bad bet.
Speaker 1 (07:13):
It's it's almost unfair what he can do. So good
for the Bills, Good for Matt.
Speaker 2 (07:18):
Mitchell, good for you.
Speaker 1 (07:19):
Matt Mitchell really excited for him.
Speaker 2 (07:22):
Dirt wounds before we come on the show, and.
Speaker 1 (07:24):
That was kind of by the way, Matt Mitchell like.
Speaker 2 (07:27):
I'm the producer.
Speaker 1 (07:28):
I don't ever make comments about your picks, but I
knew that was a bad pick.
Speaker 2 (07:32):
Yeah, Matt.
Speaker 1 (07:33):
Thanks, Matt Mitchell really give us a lot of confidence
before the show. Let's go all right. So one of
the road favorites that we were all in on we
were so excited about. We're like, this is the spot
San Francisco at Tampa five and a half when it
opened six and a half in the contest Tampa coming
off a physical overtime game in Kansas City, traveling back
(07:59):
San Francis, getting Christian McCaffrey back, and this started out
so perfectly for us, Simon, we were nailing it.
Speaker 2 (08:10):
I mean, it did it did well. You're talking about
they're up ten to nothing in ten to three. Yeah, yeah,
but it's still if it never felt right. But you're
right at the end of the day. I mean, we're
gonna we're gonna talk about blaming this kicker. But the
red zone struggles continued though. That's what it is, just
bumming me out. It's like they just can't complete these drives.
They dominated Tampa in every way. I mean Tampa, they
(08:33):
they're they're so good at making the plays that they
need to. That's that kind of team they are. If
you let them hang into this game, they'll steal it
from you. Mean, they almost deal with the Chiefs the
week before. It's just they're really great at playing, making
teams play down to their level and keeping a minute.
But they also got crazy lucky, and we had the muffkick.
Like you said, they were dead, and they muffed that punt, and.
Speaker 1 (08:56):
To open the second half, the Bucks were down and
went three and out to start the second three and
out and the forty nine ers muffed the punt, and
then all of a sudden, the Bucks are back in
the game, and it's like, come.
Speaker 2 (09:11):
On still, though doesn't matter at the end of the day,
fucking Moody, like this guy misses three kicks and just
kills us. Like it's just so brutal. When we play
these numbers, these favorites and these key numbers, and we
don't get the lucky breaks where it's like, come on,
like this is the guy's worst career day, and so
happens a good day, we bet on him. So yeah,
(09:33):
I was. I was bummed by the end of the day.
We should have taken the five and a half and
we didn't get the five and a half. We got
greedy and thought we were smart in the book and
took the six and a half. Or at the end
of the day, the five and a half was probably
the right number, right, like he makes two of those
kicks at least they went by six. The five and
a half was the right number, and we got greedy
taking that six and a half.
Speaker 1 (09:53):
Well, look, even if if we had taken the five
and a half, even with all that, don't forget the
Bucks had a fourth down in their own territory. They
went for it. Nick Bosa is hanging on Baker Mayfield,
literally hanging on the guy. It's one of the best
defensive ends in all of football, one of the best
(10:14):
defensive players in all of football. Baker Mayfield is such
a fucking baller. He's stiff arming the dude dragging him
as he rolls right and he completes a miraculous fourth
down pass. If he doesn't do that, there was enough
time that even if the Niners had gained ten yards,
they were gonna have to kick field goal, like they
(10:35):
were gonna be conservative. But the Bucks had enough timeouts
that you and I both had the five and a half.
I was still like crossing my fingers as Baker is
about to go down, but before he completes that pass,
and like that weird slow motion moment where your entire
bet is in the balance. I was thinking, in all
(10:56):
those moments, it's like in a movie when everything goes
slow motion and like flashing. You're like, all right, this
is gonna be incomplete. This is how much time is left.
This is like the ten thousand hours of betting. You
know the situation. And I'm like, okay, we're gonna get
the ball back, We're gonna have to kick a field goal.
We'll be up by six. We're gonna lose this contest,
(11:17):
but at least we'll be in the five and a half.
Fucking Baker like not only completes that pass, but then
there's like three straight penalties. The Bucks tie it. I'm like, okay, great,
forty one seconds left, maybe we can get the six
in overtime. And then Jake Moody finally does his job,
like that was excruciating. That was an excruciating beat.
Speaker 2 (11:39):
It is, but like giving more love to Baker. He
has shown me so much right now these last couple
of weeks, like to go to toe with the Chiefs
on the road, then come home like you said on
short rest, and just keep his team in it where
he's just dragging these guys across the line finish line.
Speaker 1 (11:56):
It's crazy, like no Godwin, no Evans.
Speaker 2 (11:59):
No, like you should just lay down and die in
this matchup, and he just didn't go away. And it's
pretty crazy that. Not that Sam Donald's turned back into
a pumpkin, but you know what I mean, take away
Jefferson and his other weapons and see how Sam Donald
is on the Vikings now and it's just Baker is
not that. It's pretty crazy like Baker might actually last
year for the next five to eight years in this league,
(12:22):
which is just crazy to think where he was at.
He was on three different teams in a year span,
and now he's like a legit starter in this league.
So yeah, brutal loss for Tampa. That's kind of game.
They steal that one there. They could be easily be
a seventh seed for the playoffs, and now it feels
like they're slowly fading away from this playoff race.
Speaker 1 (12:41):
I wonder if there was a poll of quarterbacks who
were respected by players, like where Baker would land. You know,
it's going to be Josh Allen and Joe Burrow and
Patrick you know, and Lamar. But they also got to
love Baker. I would not be surprised even if he's
not a top ten quarterback in terms of talent, He's
(13:02):
a guy that everybody wants to play with. Here's the
question we have to ask ourselves. You're projecting a little
bit about Tampa Bay. Now what do we think of
the Niners at this point? They are not a team
that can get into any rhythm yet. And was today Okay,
this is your first game back with McCaffrey, maybe you're
being a little conservative, Kyle Shanahan said in the halftime interview.
(13:27):
They're pulling back a little bit on his snaps because
it was so hot. They didn't want to burn them
out in that first game. But like, what do we
think of the Niners right now, they're tough to.
Speaker 2 (13:38):
You even to get a read on, just because the
red zone struggles, and it's like, yeah, I want to
fade him as these big favorites, but we know if
they put together, they can roll teams by twenty one.
Like that's just the hard thing to say, is what
are we getting weak to week is? Right now? It
isn't consistent and trying to figure it out isn't consistent.
Like one week they're great and dominant like they were
against that Cowboys team. Right they came on that second
(13:59):
half when they were down ten to six, score twenty
one straight right, three drives, three touchdowns and when it's
when their kick a field goes like this and let
teams hang in. We've seen this season they've lost a
lot of those games, like they could have lost today
if Baker makes that completion. Oh yeah, not going to overtime.
I mean they probably win this game, as crazy as
that sounds. So yeah, they're a tough team to get reround.
(14:22):
We'll talk about their line coming up, but I'm assuming
they're gonna be a big favorite this upcoming week.
Speaker 1 (14:26):
It is a big, big number against Seattle. Touchdown favorite.
We're going to get into that one for sure. All right,
let's talk about a couple of games we won. Like
when we got to New Yar halftime, I was convinced,
all right, Pittsburgh's gonna blow this. The Colts are going
to cover jeesus, the Niners are going to find their way.
But this game with Pittsburgh kind of in the end
(14:47):
like ended up exactly the way we thought it would.
We just had to get there. We survived a failed
fake punt from the Steelers ten when they were winning.
We survived a fumble by the Steelers on the on
the Commander's one yard line when they were about to
go in for the go ahead score. We survived Jaden
(15:08):
Daniels multiple times. We were saved. This is why football
was so great. A Russell Wilson moonball to the newly
acquired and vilified by Aaron Rodgers. How lucky he got
out of New York. Mike Williams who made a Willie
Mays over the shoulder catch for the game winning touchdown. Ah,
(15:30):
it was chef's kiss.
Speaker 2 (15:32):
Yeah, it was really fun. And you know, of all
the games you picked this week, this is one that,
like both of us were a little hesitant about it
because Jayden Daniels factor, but I never really waivered. I
loved it. But like you said, we both bet heavy
on the three. I bet heavy on the three in
the two and a half, and I think we were
talking in the morning it already moved a one and
a half for two, and it's like, should we fade
(15:55):
this laid steam? I remember, not that you had cold
feet about, but like you were just a little unsure
of it.
Speaker 1 (15:59):
Yeah, it was like it just felt like to me, Simon,
like the raw rass spot that we know we have
to bet. That feels a little bit cursed going against
Jade and Daniels because everybody else was betting it too.
Speaker 2 (16:15):
Well, never know, will we You know, I'm a degenerate.
But it really came down just to the number and
the two and a half. I mean, once again, the
two and a half. How important it is. It was
going to land on it, like if Daniels drove the
field got that field goal, it lands on two and
it's like no worries. That's why we always talk about
how this is the most important number of football. I
really should try to make some money off this two
(16:36):
and a half thing. I feel like we're the only
ones that beat it to death. But it's such a
key number now in football. And yeah, that's the definition
of a Tomelin spot. And I'm with you that the
I never lost faith even when we were down in
every lot of states. But the fumble at the one,
and again this is coming off all these miskicks on
the forty niners. I'm just like, oh my god, oh
my god, are we really about to be one and
(16:57):
three where we should be three and one? And luckily,
like you said, the got the moon ball from Russell
Wilson and Pittsburgh. I hate that I doubted them. I mean,
I said it was a small bet to take the
around here before the season, but Tom got that over
all those years with no quarterback, and we've seen what
he can be now with just not even a great quarterback,
(17:18):
but someone that at least can be consistent back there.
And yeah, he put his neck off Russell Wilson and
it's paid off. I mean, they're what seven and two
outch I have to look at.
Speaker 1 (17:27):
Their record, but they're seven and two sign that's crazy, Like.
Speaker 2 (17:30):
They're one they're a game away now from going over
their win total.
Speaker 1 (17:33):
They're seven and two and they're three and oh straight
up against the spread as a dog, and uh, they're
in first place in their division. Right, Yeah, it's crazy,
you know, And obviously they've got a huge game coming up.
Speaker 2 (17:49):
Their schedule gets brutal from here on out. I mean,
that was obviously no easy game either, But it's just
that was a huge win. Like I said, that's that
win dictates. If the Commanders win that game, they could
easily have won the NFC. So they still can. Obviously
they play the Eagles on Thursday. But Pittsburgh, now, like
you just said, they're in the driving position of their division. Now,
that's just a huge win.
Speaker 1 (18:10):
They got Baltimore this week. Obviously they'll be home underdogs
against the Ravens. We're going to talk about that one too.
So this the one thing I want to say about
this is it was a weird game because it felt
like we were dominating the whole game except for a
sixteen play ninety one yard drive by Jaden Daniels to
(18:32):
end the first half and then an opening drive to
score time.
Speaker 2 (18:35):
I mean that drive, Like, again, we talk all the time,
he is so good though, Like that drive was not
vintage Peyton Manny but it felt like that, like this
kid in a two minute drill, it's something special and
it's just when you watch, you just know and it's like,
I know, I hate that he's in my favorite team's division,
but as something that just loves football, it's like, man,
I'm going to enjoy this for the next ten to
(18:55):
fifteen years. Jen Danels is just something special to watch.
Speaker 1 (18:58):
He is a amazing He's just so good. But that
was a really sweet victory for US. Yay Steelers, Yay
rah rah. All Right, Atlanta, New Orleans, New Orleans plus
three and a half, let's give it up for Saints
interim head coach and special teams coach Darren Rizzy because
(19:22):
after the game, Darren Rizzy admitted that when he got
to the stadium, he went to use the crapper in
the coach's locker room, the head coaches crapper, and he
stopped it up and the first thing he thought to
himself was this is going to be a crappy day.
(19:44):
That's that's what he admitted postgame. And the truth is,
we love an interim coach with a sense of humor
who also covers.
Speaker 2 (19:56):
Yeah, and I mean, you just saw it was just
he I love first time that coaches right because he's
so emotional in silent every play he's living and dying.
I mean, every time they missed a kick, he was
going berserk, which cracked me up. And it's like, man,
I love there's still guys like this coaching like not
the boring always kind of pissed off guy and the
side like literally guy having fun with real emotions. But
(20:19):
that was a total spot like that same steam is
so bad. And they were so good in this game
in so many different ways. Defensively, they stepped up their
Carr's deep ball was incredible and another play that I
thought we were dead on was Kamar dropping that easy
walk in touch under the game.
Speaker 1 (20:38):
Yeah, and so the game just so like context. They
had a third and one, they complete, they get a
first down and it's over. Alvin Kamara does not have
anybody within twenty yards of him, and he and he
drops the ball, just drops it. I thought, oh fucking a,
it's gonna end twenty four to twenty, or it's going
(21:00):
to go to overtime and we're gonna lose twenty six
to twenty. No.
Speaker 2 (21:03):
I definitely felt the twenty fourth twenty It's like you
just gave Kirk the exact life he needed. The defense
is tired, they'll be able to get it here. And
now the defense really stepped up. I mean, I want
to give up seventeen points to this high flying Atlanta team.
And you know, Robinson had an incredible game. I don't
know if you catched a couple of theseus, but yeah,
he was sick incredible and like that was the main
(21:25):
game I had on my main TV. You know, that
was like my favorite bet today on Yeah, convinced me,
and it's like, you know, feeling good right there. They
started out Saints looking great and then they're not doing
anything in the second half. I think they only scored three
points in the whole second half and we still held
on to the cover. So really fun swept bet. We
might take a week off from Ben the Saints team, you.
Speaker 1 (21:47):
Think, because right now they're going to be three point
home favorites against the Cleveland Browns. So it might actually
not be a game we take off in which we
have to bet the return of Jameis Winston. That's true
to New Orleans in a revenge game, we're getting shuttled
out of town. This was a huge luck game, the
(22:09):
biggest luck game board for the luck rankings, and it
almost played out exactly like that. The Falcons missed multiple
field goals. Talk about you know, your fate being on
the foot of kickers. That included Young Wayku missing the
(22:31):
game time kick with six point thirty left in the game.
We got a little bit back because of the Alvin
Kamara drop, so it was a little bit equal.
Speaker 2 (22:42):
I wouldn't mind him making it though, because I was
I told you I was worried about that touchdown, So
him making the field goals have been nice because they
would have just been up three, and I'm like, okay,
Like now we have Derek Carr taking those deep shots
and if he misses, who cares. We still cover our number.
But yeah, I had a decent amount on their money
line as well, especially on our money line around Robin,
and I thought we would get there with the Saints.
(23:02):
When they put up three in the second half, it's
like I didn't feel like we deserved it or even
had the chance to get in there. But once again,
their defense really stepped up. That Saints team, and we
talk all the time that's the difference of having a
coach you like and you want to play hard for.
And that felt like a game where the team played
hard for that coach, where you know, there's some other
games you could talk about if you want, where he
just felt like guys simply quit on their team and
(23:24):
their coaches.
Speaker 1 (23:25):
Last stat for you, the Saints averaged ten point seven
six yards for passing attempt. That's great, that is insane.
Speaker 2 (23:36):
And shoutout we only won one by three.
Speaker 1 (23:38):
Yeah. Shout out to Nick Giffen, by the way, who
not only had this in luck rankings, also had the
Cowboys Eagles under in the luck rankings, also had the
Jaguars vikings in the luck rankings that were under also
had He talked about this on convinced me this morning.
If you're not watching, you're missing because he had Derek
(23:58):
Carr under half an interception in this game and had
a great breakdown about how the Falcons can't get pressure,
so when Car isn't pressured, he's less likely than the
league average to throw an interception. All right, we just
talked about some teams that really quit, and so that's
going to be impacting how we think about them going forward.
(24:20):
We have the Rams minus one and half tomorrow night.
Thank God. Our last game out was the Jets minus
two and a half. Do you want to talk about that.
Speaker 2 (24:30):
For a second? Swinging and miss that was a bad one.
And it's like typical where like you always joke about
you're getting bullied. But I wish I could have dug
in my feet on it. But I got where everyone
was coming from and what their view was, and I
should have trusted my instincts and thought this line should
be three. With Arizona, the books had hung a bad line. Instead,
(24:51):
I went against that thought I had made a bad
read that the professionals were smart on it, and they weren't.
That is a team that is simply quit in everywhere.
And Arizona the Kyler experience. When he's on, he is on.
Like in that game, I think at one point he
was twenty for twenty one passing like he.
Speaker 1 (25:10):
Was really locking seventeen straight past as new Arizona Cardinals record.
He might have completed more, but that's when I saw
the record.
Speaker 2 (25:17):
No, he was really impressive. And you know we always
joke like you can tell a lot from the early
in the game, how two teams are they drove the field,
got two touchdowns, Jets drive the field, get two field goals,
and like we always say, it's over from that point forward.
I think they eventually went up twenty one to six,
and offensively they could have done whatever they wanted. Arizona,
(25:39):
they just looked like such a better team Defensively. We
talked about it like they're a team of no names.
I mean, they have Buddha Baker obviously, but yeah, Gannons
really turned that defense around into his identity of they
give up yards, but they don't surrender those touchdowns, and
they've kind of had that identity this whole season. So impressive.
It's what four straight wins for him now the Cardinals
(26:00):
and Kyler so I keep waiting there for a de
fall the other way, but it's it's not happening. This
is a legit team. They deserve to be in the
winning the NFC West right now. Like they're the best
team in that division, no doubt.
Speaker 1 (26:12):
Six and four. Two things. One. Anytime you say Buddha Baker,
he's one of the best defensive players in football, and
this year he's sort of playing like it. I always
feel whenever I hear my kid and I whenever we're
watching these games, we're always like you know so and
so college, John Simpson College, you know, and we'll mention
(26:34):
like the most random people to see if we can
get it right. He said Buddha Baker in my head,
I'm like Buddha Baker, the way he plays, he should
have gone to LSU or Alabama. I'll open it up
to the YouTube chat as well as Evan to see
if anyone can get the right college for Buddha Baker.
(26:54):
Speaking of teams, Wow, someone just got it Washington. It's right.
Speaking of teams that quit, boy Dallas Cowboys, thank god
we didn't have a conversation about putting them in the contest.
Speaker 2 (27:10):
No, and I won't even tell you. I won't even
tell the people the other game you were trying to
get in there because you were losing your goddamn mind.
Speaker 1 (27:15):
No, no, no, Well, you're right. I was tempted by
the Titans. All week we had avoided the Titans. I
was tempted by the Titans just because I was going
to mention it was the one game that Nick Giffin
and the luck rankings completely whiffed on and all week,
like he had been hyping it in the slack channel,
(27:37):
I was saying, this is gross We're not going to
do it. He talked about her to convince me we
avoided it. I'm proud of us, so good for that.
Speaker 2 (27:47):
You're like, I know, it's gross, let's just put it in.
It's gross.
Speaker 1 (27:51):
No, no, no, no, it wasn't. I wasn't that cavalier. It
were like, if we're going to take one out. You said,
if we're gonna take one out, you'd rather with the Jets,
And I said, really, over the types And we ended
up leaving it as it is with the Rams for
tomorrow night. The one game that I feel like we
missed on and we just sort of were cowardly even
(28:13):
though we handicapped it perfectly, was the Broncos We need.
Speaker 2 (28:19):
Yeah, Yeah, that was really fun. I mean we didn't
even talk about that. That was by far the most
insane game of the day. As much as I want
to take a victory lap on Dallas sucking and the
Eagles winning, I don't want to punch down right now.
Our producer Gift knows he doesn't need it. He doesn't care.
I don't think Cowboys care right now. They're just like, yeah, whatever,
we'll get a good draft pick. Yeah, Like you know,
(28:40):
Kansas City Chiefs. We joke all the time they're gonna
get caught by some team, but they just find a way.
And what was it did a get was Denver up
fourteen three at one point? Yeah, okay, there was something
like that.
Speaker 1 (28:56):
They were up. I can't remember what it was, but
they were definitely Yeah, it was fourteen to three.
Speaker 2 (29:01):
I think they're beating the crap out of them, and
somehow Spags makes the adjustments. Bo Knicks, who I think
he started the game, you know, throwing for one hundred
ninety two yards to two touchdowns. At that point, they
figured him out and they shut it down. I don't
think he scored another point the rest of the game, right,
They won sixteen fourteen, So they did. Yeah, even on
their worst day, which was today, like we talked about,
(29:21):
they came off a short week overtime game. They looked sluggish,
they looked tired, They did not play well. Still played
a full game. And that's what's so special about this
Chiefs team. And you know, with joke all the time
about that Brady run with that perfect team and the
pressure you feel that that team was not coming off
(29:42):
of anything like this is a team coming off two
Super Bowls, now they're a perfect nine to zero. This
Kansas City team, it is truly mental how special this
team is and this everything between the coaching and the
players everything, I know, we're gonna we're gonna going to
keep doing what we've been doing. Is we take more.
Holmes is a short favorite, and we faced him as
a big dog, and I'm with you, I'm pissed me
(30:04):
to have it in there because it just it went
right into what we talked about him. He plays these
ugly teams close and he beats up on the good teams.
Like that's the thing about Mahomes, it's it's bizarre. Like
the forty nine ers, they beat the crap out of them.
They played really good against the Ravens that game. Today
they did not play good. It was tough in every way,
the denvers all over them, and still they found a way.
(30:26):
And yeah, you can say they got lucky, but that
was a blocked field goal. That's not luck, that's coaching scheme.
It's something they saw on tape and they attacked it.
So yeah, that was That was probably the most fun game.
That was the game. I definitely I jumped out of
my scene shot it because I was like Holy shit.
I can't believe they blocked that because I thought they
were dead too, just like the announcers. So pretty crazy
Chiefs fans.
Speaker 1 (30:46):
All right, well, let's use that to transition into the
week eleven games. Reminder, Simon and I are two and
two heading into Money Out of Football. We're on the
Rams at minus one and a half in the contest.
The numbers moved up obviously tree and by the way,
that ultimately was the factor. Like we liked the number
on the Rams at one and a half, it was
two and a half in the contest this morning, so
(31:07):
we decided to lock in that closing line value Week eleven.
I don't even want to say the games I like,
because the game that I want to talk about is
the game that you just mentioned, the Chiefs and the
Buffalo Bills. In Buffalo, the Chiefs are one point favorites.
Pro Football's two superpowers renew their classic rivalry. Everything says,
(31:32):
of course, we want to take the Bills. Yet we
can't because we're going to have to take Patrick Mahomes
as a one point favorite on a now fifteen game
winning streak with a score differential in their undefeated season
so far of fifty six points, which is the lowest
(31:54):
score differential of any team that has ever started undefeated
this many games. It's why we bet against the Chiefs
this past week because they are not blowing teams out.
But like, what the fuck do we do here? Simon?
Speaker 2 (32:12):
This is easy bet. I am on bet three six '
five in New Jersey. The line has flipped to plus
one and a half on the Chiefs. Hammer that number
on the Chiefs. We talked about you just you don't think, well,
Mahomes is the dog. Don't ever think it. You take
the number. So I could have been talking into this
that the Bills where the dog. That's where the value
(32:32):
would have been. The profession has already come in. They've
already hit this number. It's plus one and a half
right now for this Chiefs team. Give it to me.
I mean, if I could put more than a thousand
bucks on a teaser, this would be a huge teaser
play for me. It's seven and a half on this
Chiefs team. But unfortunately that's not gonna be happening for
the next at least two or three days. So I'll
(32:52):
grab it early. This Chiefs one and a half, I'll
grab as much as I can even if this keep
going up like we've seen it before, right, it was
like that forty nine er scenario they go to two
and a half by kick golf. So maybe I'll get
a little greedy and weight. Maybe this more Bills money
will come in. But we don't overthink these spots. We
take mahomes the dog. Even if we lose this game.
Long term, it's a winner.
Speaker 1 (33:13):
Yeah, I can't argue with it. Even if they were
at one point favorite, I still probably would have played
the Chiefs.
Speaker 2 (33:20):
We know this Bills team though. That's another thing else
pissed off. Today. We talked about you bet the Bills
against bad teams and nothing to stand out more this year.
They've just beat up on bad teams this year. But
we said they struggle against good teams this year and
they've played good competition. They've struggled against them. So trying
hard out to ever think this one because I am
with you, I don't want it right away. I wanted
to be on the Bills because I thought we're gonna
(33:40):
get them as a dog. But no, the professionals are
the public whoever came in early has dictated this happy
to bet this Chiefs team at plus one and a half.
Speaker 1 (33:48):
Right now, I know the right side is the winning side,
shout out Scooch. But the Colts were the right side
in that game. They cover that game if they don't
have two interceptions, a fumble and all that that ends
in a sack and by the way, and a touchdown
(34:11):
to Josh Downs, their best receiver that he drops, that
is a walk in touchdown.
Speaker 2 (34:20):
I agree with Matt Mitchell who says it's a ludicrous tack.
Speaker 1 (34:23):
What does Matt Mitchell know? We also mentioned the Niners.
Niners are seven point favorites at home against Seattle. I
don't know that I've seen enough from the Niners at
this point to make them a seven point favorite in
the divisions. The team coming off a bye.
Speaker 2 (34:46):
Crazy. It's crazy because even if they covered today, said
they did cover, I would make this line like six
and a half. But they didn't cover it. So it's like,
how do you not make this line five and a half.
It's seven? It opens at seven, So I I guess
I'm a sucker. I'm missing something here. I'll take the
seven right away. Like you just said, who are this
forty nine ers team to be getting that seven? I
(35:06):
know the Seahawks have been bad and everything. We get it,
But like Chad just said, they're coming off a bye
in a divisional game. That's a must win for the
Seahawks team. They are so desperate they know this is
their season in this game. So, yeah, the seven, this
has to come down. Is this really gonna go up
to seven and a half? Is this really gonna keep
going up? I don't think so. I think it's gonna
go down by Tuesday. So I'm with you on that one.
(35:28):
I'll grab the seven. Now.
Speaker 1 (35:30):
The other game that interested me, I know, we just
talked about it. I don't know how we don't take
Cleveland plus three against against New Orleans. It's in New Orleans.
I know it's jamis, but I don't have a fear
of that one. Like the come down for the Saints,
it's still the Saints. It's still a team that just
(35:51):
lost seven in a row. It's a team that had
the perfect spot and still, by the way, needed a
lot of luck to win this game. Like that defense
that the Browns have is the epitome of the defense
that gives Derek Carr a hard time. If I can
get the Cleveland Browns as an underdog with one more
(36:15):
week of Jamis prepping to take over. I'm okay with that.
Speaker 2 (36:21):
Yeah, I'm laughing because that week, I don't know how
it helps Jamis. Either we're gonna get a good Jamis
Day or getting a bad Jamis day. Mean you know that.
Bet No, we'd have no idea what we're gonna get
out of them. But I agree with you. This is
more to me just about playing the number. Yeah, I
don't know if I'm gonna bet this one for real
this week because there's other games I do like a
lot more. And again Jamis, I still feel like, I mean,
(36:42):
you got away when I gets the Ravens and it's
like I can't get over that. The Kyle Hamilton drop
just always will pop in my head with him for
the rest of the year, where it's like that's who
he is, Like that really is who he is. He's
gonna throw a bunch of amazing passes and then just
one absolute meatball right to the defender that either they're
gonna catch it or thing's going to go right through
their hands. So yeah, play the number. I'm already seeing
(37:03):
a couple two and a half's pop up, Chad, So
you're actually on the smart side round. This number is moving,
So I would say, if you agree with me and Chad,
definitely grab the three now because it's going down.
Speaker 1 (37:13):
What do we do with Pittsburgh and Baltimore. Pittsburgh is
a three point underdog at home. It's the raw ras spot. Yeah,
Baltimore is streaking right now. It's it feels like we're
tempting fate. I know, percentage wise, we're supposed to keep
betting the Steelers, but it does feel like we are
(37:33):
tempting fate a little bit. And also, here's one thing
that I think is really important. The Steelers have been
much better when Alex Highsmith was playing. He went out
at the end of the Commander's game and was walking
on one leg off the field the Steelers defensive end.
So I do think I'm not quite anxious to bet
(37:55):
it until I know his status.
Speaker 2 (37:57):
Yeah, I'm against total speculation, but he'll look like he
stepped on Daniel's ankle and rolled his own ankle.
Speaker 1 (38:02):
Yeah, rare.
Speaker 2 (38:04):
That's a quick turnaround. So I'm with you on that.
That's definitely negative, but it's another game where you can,
if you want, you can be patient. I'm gonna grab
the three now, just because in the case of professional
side's coming on Pittsburgh. But this is gonna be a
pros rust Jos. I mean this is every year we
do this. Every year we're in the exact spot me
and you have bet this number at three, three and
(38:25):
a half on Mason Rudolph or Kenny Pickett and Pittsburgh
at home against Lamar and we've covered that number. So
I know you're I get what you're saying right now,
but you're gonna come around. This is no doubt this
is gonna be one of our picks. But it's all
about the value. If this is two and a half,
I have no issue now forcing this one in at
three and a half. It's too tempting to pass on
that number, especially where we just know this this Ravens team.
(38:47):
You know what, top two, number one offense in football,
terrible defense, They're just terrible. Like Chase, I know he's special.
He looked like he was playing at different speed and
I know that its youth is the game changer because
again when the Eagles played against him, Mitchell shut him down.
Like when you have a young, fast corner. It's different
with Chase, though he looks so much faster than this
(39:09):
secondary and now they might be without Kyle Hamilton on
the Ravens side. How do we not factor that in
as well? That's an even bigger loss than anything when
we can add into that, Like, yeah, I'm trying not
to overthink this one. I think we should take the
three now because I do see the professional money coming in.
But people out there that are just one one better,
they only bet one time a week. You can't be
(39:31):
patient because I could see this on up the three
and a half. Because this just feels like such a
public side of this Ravens team. I mean, we talk
all the time about that trend Lamar three and under.
It's usually an auto bet for me and Chad. Just
in this spot, it's not.
Speaker 1 (39:43):
You were talking about Jamar Chase, by the way, I like,
for a second, I'm like, Chase, who is he talking?
And then I remember Chase Chase Chase in the Bengals.
What other games are you looking at? Uh?
Speaker 2 (39:55):
Just it's just like, Okay, these games pop out. We
said we thought the that's quit. The Jets right now
are minus three against the Colts. How do you feel
like rolling it back with Joe Blackowa.
Speaker 1 (40:05):
I feel fine, it's on my list. I almost felt
like I was going to be ridiculed, I know, but
I was kicked off the show if I mentioned taking.
Speaker 2 (40:17):
We're just betting numbers here, so that that's an early
number I'll grab now, just because that Jets team really
looked like they quit on me that.
Speaker 1 (40:26):
I was talking to Coward. I was doing his show
on Thursday, and I told him the wise guys are
on the Jets and he goes, no, he goes why,
and I gave him all the reasons. He goes, yeah,
all those makes sense if they've got a coach who's
good and a team the police, but they don't. And
you know what, he was one hundred percent.
Speaker 2 (40:46):
Yeah, well that's great. Okay, just ones that jumped out
to me. Chargers are minus two and a half at
home against the Bengals Sunday night. Yep, that's really interesting.
That number is really interesting.
Speaker 1 (40:59):
I wrote it down own. My first instinct with Cincinnati
plus two and a half.
Speaker 2 (41:06):
Wow, all right, My first instinct was Charger is because
it's so the Bengals is so tempting. I thought that
would be a pick. So that's why I have a
modeled at So that's again another game where I'm just
questioning my own model because it's like, maybe I'm giving
too much respect to this Bengals team because they have
had some really close losses, but when they play against
really good teams other than the Ravens, they've kind of
(41:27):
been rolled, right, like the Eagles absolutely rolled them. So
that's that to me, is just the number that popped out,
like is this really good? We're gonna go up to
three plus three. They're gonna get so much Bengals money
against this Chargers team. So that's just an interesting number
that jump.
Speaker 1 (41:42):
I expect T Higgins to be back.
Speaker 2 (41:45):
That's fair if he is back now changing my opinion,
but if this is two and a half and there's
no T Higgins, I love this Chargers like they match
up really well, not only offensively, but defensively I think
as well, Like they're their front can attack this Bengals front,
like we know that's the Bengal's weakness. They just can't
block for him right now. So just an early line
that jumped out.
Speaker 1 (42:05):
To me orders giving up a craptastic garbage time back
door overcover to the Tennessee Titans with forty one seconds
left today.
Speaker 2 (42:17):
That was brutal.
Speaker 1 (42:19):
That was in that moment. My dog started whining because
she wanted like a little chewy, and I was like,
I cannot do this with you right now. And my
son was like, why are you being so mean to her?
And I didn't want to be like because I just
lost this fucking total because will Levis did the one
(42:42):
thing he can't do for fifty nine fucking minutes. Yeah,
I tried to keep myself together. I just said, she's
I don't want to hear the whining right now. That's
all I said.
Speaker 2 (42:51):
Before we go. Just got to get your earlier read
on it, because I'm betting. I already bet the Packers
a minus six and a half. What's your view on this? Like,
isn't that a huge smash back for Green Bay? It
could not be worse vibes for Chicago it is, and
now your coming off of bye week, dude, it.
Speaker 1 (43:10):
Is such bad vibes there. The fact the Bears hired
the offensive coordinator, they hired, they kept the coach. They
have wasted a year of Caleb Williams. They have possibly
wasted two years because next year he will have to
unlearn all the bad habits, rebuild chemistry with a team
(43:33):
and a receiver corps and DJ Moore specifically, who has
clearly lost faith in the guy, and he will have
to not be trigger happy because he is afraid that
he is going to get his head taken off by
teams like the New England Patriots, who sacked him nine
times today. By the way, another excruciating beat, Sean Kerner
gave out twenty nine and a half pass attempts under
(43:56):
Caleb got to thirty on the last player of the game.
So it like this team is terrible. But six and
a half is a lot of points in the division
at home. That's my take. So I'm not I'm not ready.
Speaker 2 (44:11):
I'm on the other side. I'm taking Green Bay now
because I think this is gonna go up.
Speaker 1 (44:15):
Okay, I'm not saying I'm not gonna wanna eventually get there.
I'm not in the same place.
Speaker 2 (44:20):
Your hesitation, I get it.
Speaker 1 (44:22):
Yeah, not there because Jordan Love hasn't been amazing. He's
been giving the ball up a lot, he's banged up,
He's thrown a lot of picks. So there's a lot
of variants there in a big number in the division.
All right, exciting exciting stuff as a reminder. The Favorites
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(44:44):
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