Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:08):
Welcome to the Favorites the podcast presented by BET three
six five. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network,
Live from our Tommy John Holmes Studios. I am Chad
Nollman of the Action Network. This is our Sunday Night
wild Card episode in which we review the results of
our best bets so far and preview the early lines
(00:29):
for the divisional round. I'm joined as always by my
cost my companion, Mike Capadre, my BFF professional better sim
In Hunter Ros.
Speaker 2 (00:37):
I'm in, Hello, Chad. What a bounce back, brother? How
are we doing?
Speaker 1 (00:41):
We're doing better, We're feeling better. I'm gonna explain to
you a little bit of a crisis of confidence that
I had, partially brought on by you. Cost me a
little bit. But look, we're watching the end of his
Eagles game. We had the Eagles three and a half.
They're up by nine with about four something left. They
(01:01):
got the ball that to twenty. I'm not saying it's over.
I'm not saying anything. I'm just stating the facts. We're
gonna let people watch this game along as we record
the podcast. We want to get to some of those
divisional games that we especially already have line four lines
forward talking about the Chiefs and the Texans, the Bills
and the Ravens. Catch every episode of The Favorites live
on YouTube. For those enjoying on YouTube, don't forget to
(01:22):
give us a like and subscribe to the Action Network
YouTube page. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented
by Bet three sixty.
Speaker 3 (01:30):
Five and now new Bet three six five.
Speaker 1 (01:32):
Customers get one hundred and fifteen bonus bets when you
bet five dollars, sign up using promo code Favorites, deposit
ten dollars. Place a bet for five dollars to get
one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets. Those bonus
bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props.
Speaker 3 (01:45):
Futures, and more. Whatever the moment, It's never ordinary.
Speaker 1 (01:48):
A Bet three sixty five must be twenty one or
older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina,
New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia.
Speaker 3 (01:58):
We're eighteen and older.
Speaker 1 (01:59):
In Kentucky, gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler or
one eight hundred bets off. In Iowa terms, conditioned restrictions
apply all right, first game we talked about last week
that we liked Chargers minus two and a half at Houston.
What a disastrous final three minutes of the first half
of the Chargers, from dominating to holding their own to
(02:22):
having CJ backed up on the one and nearly getting
them for intentional grounding in the end zone. To it's
third and nineteen. He fumbles a snap that goes over
his head. He picks it up on a bounce, rolls
out to the right. All the Chargers have now run
towards CJ, leaving a receiver wide open first down. They
(02:43):
go on to score. The next thirty minutes is all
CJ as Justin Herbert, who we specifically bet the Chargers
because we believe Justin Herbert would do a better job,
a superior job of holding onto the ball and not
having any turnovers in a game where the uh holding
(03:04):
the ball was going to be at a premium. CJ
was brilliant in the second half. Justin Herbert four touchdown
for interceptions, including a pick six.
Speaker 3 (03:14):
He had three the whole year.
Speaker 2 (03:18):
Yeah, I think you touched on it. The What de
sided the game to me?
Speaker 4 (03:21):
It was just that simple play of that fumbled snap
that went over his head. It took him whatever funk
he was in and him not seeing the field. It
snapped his confidence back. That's what that play felt like
to me. And you're right, he definitely got away with one.
That was a sack intentional grounding the play before Oh
my god, he was not outside the tackle box, and
(03:43):
you know, I think that's a little bit of the
home team losing in that spot. The reps easily could
have called that, and I'm shocked they didn't. And you're
right that that third and sixteen huge play. You know
that that kind of decided the game, just because you know,
we're not even talking about but that Herbert when it
(04:03):
was six nothing, his receivers were dropping balls and he
was you know, he kind of lost a little bit
of confidence. There was forcing it in there. But at
one point they had multiple turners and they led six
points to show for it, and he kind of knew
that Houston just got a touchdown before half here that
could be, you know, a big deal. And not only
did they do that, like you said, they got ten points,
(04:23):
they were up ten to six head into half, and yeah,
this is the game of the haters of Herbert, a
guy who skates by and gets zero flack. This is
the day that they are happy about because they can
just say, look, you.
Speaker 2 (04:39):
Guys want to crown this guy as a king.
Speaker 4 (04:40):
I mean, there's guys who have empower rated higher than
Joe Burrow, and it's like, I get they're doing it
for clicks, but come on, I mean, what are we
doing here when you have him rated higher than Joe Burrow?
And it's it's a year of you kind of see
what you need to do for the Chargers. You need
to get him weapons, like you can't roll them out
there with guys who are just dropping those passes like
they were for Herbert.
Speaker 2 (04:59):
So so, yeah, brutal bet, brutal loss.
Speaker 4 (05:02):
And you know, I don't know how you felt, but
heading to that game, it was like, Okay, I'm feeling
confident because the Cyberron and when they got the turnovers,
it made me feel them better. But then once to
like we just said, it started going sideways, I was like,
oh god, we have totally stepped into one here and
this is going to be a brutal loss. And yeah,
the worst worst game I've ever seen Herbert play. I
don't know about you, but that that to me off
(05:23):
the top of my head, that is the worst game
he's ever played.
Speaker 1 (05:25):
How could it not be? The guy had three interceptions
the entire year. He's one of three quarterbacks in the
history of the NFL with Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers
to have four hundred pass attempts and three interceptions are
fewer in a season, and he throws four in a game.
(05:45):
And I'm with you. I was making notes on this game,
and I'm like, they've got multiple turnovers. Off the turnovers,
they only had three points to show for it, including
as soon as they intercepted CJ. Stroud, Justin Herbert rolls right,
throws across his body into double coverage fifty yards downfield
(06:10):
and the Texans steal it right back to me. That
was the moment where I was like, uh oh, this
is this is not good and this game, this game,
and how it was so bad to watch like it
was so it just wasn't good football. Was the beginning
of a tailspin into a mental spiral for me that
(06:31):
led to bad decision making that ended up costing me today,
which I will tell you about. But it just wasn't pretty.
As we got into the next game, which was the
Ravens and the Steelers. And look, I think the exact
decision for me this week was the Chargers, if I'm
(06:51):
not mistaken, And the exec and the Simon says for
you was the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Speaker 3 (06:58):
We liked him at ten. They were terrible. They were
everything that we were afraid of.
Speaker 1 (07:05):
They did not have any Mike Tomlin, Rara, magic, Russell Wilson,
could not convert a first down. You know, they could
not do anything in the first half. Two first downs,
nine minutes time of possession one to five, and third down.
Lamar looked unstoppable. Pittsburgh like it looked like it didn't
(07:25):
want to stop him.
Speaker 4 (07:26):
Yeah, and I honestly hated the decision to start the
game where they elected to receive. And it's like, you've
been a second half team the whole season, why not
put yourself position to get the.
Speaker 2 (07:36):
Ball first in the second half. And obviously didn't matter.
Speaker 4 (07:38):
I think they forced a three and out anyway on
the Ravens to start the second half, but it was
still a bizarre situation where you're right, they basically got
the ball three and out punted, and you know, Lamar
not that he wanted to settle in, but you could
just tell he had a lot of energy and he
literally was just like, I'm just gonna run this myself
to start this game. I'm protecting this ball, I'm gonna
(07:59):
throw them off kilt here. And you know that was
not a Lamar through the air type of game. That
was really a we are the best run blocking and
running team of football, and we're going to show it
here with me and Derreck Henry. And you know, Lamar
is the ultimate weapon, Like we know that the guy
might win his third MVP. When he gets to going
on the ground, it kind of settles the whole offense.
(08:19):
And you kind of saw that even on the final
touchdown to Justice Hill. It was like vintage Lamar moving
around that backfield even though he knows there's what three
four seconds on the clock.
Speaker 2 (08:29):
Yeah, when he's doing that and it's.
Speaker 4 (08:30):
Just perfect read, perfect touch throw, and you're right, it's
twenty one to nothing.
Speaker 2 (08:34):
I'm a sicko.
Speaker 4 (08:35):
I still thought mathematically weren't dead, and unfortunately Pittsburgh did
show up in that second half, in the third quarter,
and there you know, it's twenty one fourteen, twenty eight fourteen,
and you know, Russ is the ball again they're driving
and you're thinking, Okay, we can get this back door
and you know we can end this day one on one. No,
(08:55):
they didn't get there. Russ gave up. I mean Tomlin
tw would even talk about that, I'm gonna pump them
that fourth and inches. It's just like everything was just
cowardice to me about Pittsburgh in that game. They played
not to win, they played not to lose, and yeah,
that was a great win for Lamar, but I think
it showed how important Derek Henry is that team. I
think he had one hundred and seventy yards Russian and yeah,
(09:16):
he clearly the difference maker in that game. Pittsburgh just
had no answer for that. So yeah, brutal, brutal bet
brutal end of that day. And I'm with you, Like,
going to bed that night, I'm just like, holy shit,
could not be seeing the board any worse right now?
Speaker 2 (09:28):
Two bets to blow at losses.
Speaker 1 (09:30):
So I was so disgusted at halftime of that game,
was about nine thirty, So truly disgusted. Between how much
I hated watching that Chargers game and how bad generally
bad the football was, like turning into grumpy old man
where I'm yelling at myself, why the fuck are these
(09:51):
commercials so fucking loud?
Speaker 2 (09:53):
I agree with that commercials.
Speaker 1 (09:56):
There's so many commercials and they are so loud, like
the all you on the commercials. I thought, didn't they
pass a law that was like, the commercials can't beat
louder than the show that you're watching.
Speaker 3 (10:07):
Because they were so loud.
Speaker 1 (10:09):
I turned it off at halftime only check the score
in the action app. I went upstairs and watched The
Jackal the day of The Jackal on Peacock with my wife.
We'd started watching it got like five episodes in. I'm like,
this football is terrible. By watching The Jackal, she's like fantastic,
except to kind of cost.
Speaker 2 (10:28):
Me well before you go on that.
Speaker 4 (10:29):
I was just like you, Like literally, I went to
the diner this morning with a friend to get breakfast
and she's in a good mood. I'm like that inside
because I was for zero and two and I walk
in there's this really happy family laughing, and in the
back of line, I'm like.
Speaker 2 (10:40):
What the fuck are you so happy about?
Speaker 4 (10:43):
So I was going through the same thing you're going
through of just discussed in the world, just because of
my own bad bets oh much.
Speaker 2 (10:49):
I was right there with you this morning.
Speaker 1 (10:51):
I'm so glad you say that because it makes me
feel better about what I did last night, because obviously
I do this a lot, but it's not what I
do for a living, and I have not had a
good year, and I have felt badly about it, and
I have lost my confidence. And so to hear you
say the same thing that like you're still feeling badly
(11:14):
about it, even though I know you quickly get over
it and are betting, as did I all day today.
So you know, I like Buffalo. We had Buffalo Denver
at eight and a half and all.
Speaker 2 (11:26):
Week Theezers that was also a nice hit.
Speaker 3 (11:28):
Yeah, I liked Buffalo all week.
Speaker 1 (11:32):
As the week went on, you became more and more
wishy washy, right, and by Thursday your comment was and
I won't forget this. I'm going to back this because
you're my guy. That felt to me like, eh, I
don't really like it, but I want you.
Speaker 3 (11:50):
To feel good. I know you're feeling bad. I know
you like it when you like it.
Speaker 4 (11:53):
Definitely confident on the teaser. But yeah, you're right about
Buffalo the number. I was not confident on it, just.
Speaker 1 (11:57):
By the time we did convinced me yesterday morning with
Raybaon and Kerner and Nick and Evan, uh, you had
made Denver plus eight and a half your bet for
this game. We went game by game on the show,
so that was in my head the whole freaking day.
And then we get blown out on the Chargers. We
(12:18):
get blown out on the Steelers. As I'm watching us
lose the Steelers bet after I get the big red
X in the action app, We've got an oho and
two day I had been thinking, like should I buy
out of the Bills, They're a big favorite, Like, I
don't know if I can stomach being oh and three
(12:40):
going into Philly against the Packers, where that also makes
me nervous. Like by by twelve thirty, after I had
streamed three freaking hours of the Jackal, I'm never up
this late. We couldn't stop watching it, I bought out
my Buffalo Bill's bet and for eight and a half.
Speaker 5 (13:02):
Yeah, now the.
Speaker 3 (13:05):
Mow the fields are happening. Now, they're making it happen now.
Speaker 1 (13:12):
Yeah, Clearly I'm regretful. Clearly this was a crisis of confidence.
The reason I share these things, I share these things
because I want listeners to understand. I bet sometimes they
feel the same way. I'm betting a lot of games
every single weekend. I am immersed in this and it
still happens, like sometimes you just make bad decisions. And
(13:35):
the game played out exactly like I thought it would.
And we went and discussed it on Tuesday, with the
Bills piling on points as the game went on, it
was uncanny how well we describe what would happen.
Speaker 4 (13:52):
Yeah, and all goes back to what we talked about
on Tuesday, which he nailed, is these quarterbacks making their
first playoff starts, especially if they're a rookie, it's just
up toe spot for them in that spot. And yeah,
my doubt came from I thought it was just a
lot of points for a Bills defense that we've seen
has struggled.
Speaker 2 (14:09):
And you know, they not only.
Speaker 4 (14:12):
Did they show up, but they also had a nice
little game plan there of you know, just keeping everything
in front of them. They really did that. They gave
up that one big play and then the rest of
the game they were able to keep everything just in front.
Speaker 2 (14:24):
Especially the safety. So yeah, a huge, huge win for
the Bills, And.
Speaker 4 (14:29):
Yeah, a game that you know we talked about Josh
Allen MVP discussion, That to me is the sum of
the perfect discussion for him an MVP where it's like
in that game, the different places. Even if you can
say he didn't have it, he definitely didn't rain that
first half. It just wasn't very Josh Allen like. It
was sloppy, probably should have been ten ten. They got
(14:50):
really lucky that Denver mister field goal has ten seven.
And I'm sure evn't tweeted it out, but it's like,
Josh Allen second half this year has just been dominant.
He's been absolutely money and whatever it is he come,
he came out and did the same thing he's done
all season, absolutely dominated that second half, made big time thirty.
Evan just put in our chat he's fifteen to two
second half spread against the spread this season. It's it's
(15:13):
truly remarkable. So that to me is the ultimate confidence.
If you're someone that is backing him and you know
we're gonna talk about his upcoming line this week, you know,
he's just been incredible. The second Half's like even when
he doesn't have it, he finds it and you know
when he.
Speaker 2 (15:28):
Needs to make the plays with his legs, he does,
like the had.
Speaker 4 (15:30):
A couple of times where it's like, you know, third
and short, fourth and short, and he trusts his legs
over his arm because he knows how big and strong
he is and if he can just headfake the right
way and get a guy in the wrong angle and
he can fall forward, he'll pick up the first and
he kept doing in that game. So yeah, brilliant game
by Josh Allen.
Speaker 2 (15:46):
The Bills defense.
Speaker 4 (15:47):
And you know, bow Knicks didn't play well. We can
all agree on that, and you know that's that's tough.
But you're the seventh seed. It's just like we're seeing
here with Green Bay, like there's a reason these teams
are the seventh seed, right, They're just in.
Speaker 2 (15:59):
A tough spot. So yeah, Chalk Chalk has been good.
Speaker 4 (16:02):
It's all home teams right now, Chad home team and
Chalk for the playoffs to start.
Speaker 1 (16:06):
So, by the way, I do want to shout out
doctor Nick, who had the Bills Broncos under forty eight
in the luck rankings, talked about it un convinced me yesterday.
My only solace is that I did make some of
my money back betting the under, and of course Josh
(16:28):
Allen almost single handedly tried to make the total go
over the forty eight in the second half, like I
just kept I would for the last forty five minutes
of the game. I went to my kids rec league
basketball game, and the whole time, I'm just got the
phone next to me, and I've got the Action app,
and every two seconds I'm getting alert twenty four to
(16:50):
seven thirty one, seven twenty eight, seven thirty one, seven
thirty eight. So I'm like, are you fucking kidding me?
Can you stop fucking scoring? Because if I lose this
under after I bought out the fucking bills, when everything
happened that I said was gonna happen, I am gonna
fucking lose it.
Speaker 3 (17:04):
Right here in the hall of high school.
Speaker 6 (17:06):
Gym alert Josh Allen looking for He's a hill, He's
a fire.
Speaker 2 (17:16):
He's a football.
Speaker 5 (17:17):
Player through and through year.
Speaker 2 (17:19):
He was runching there he goes, shut.
Speaker 3 (17:21):
Shine, drugs and excuse me, touchdown.
Speaker 6 (17:25):
How many quarterbacks have you ever seen hurdle anyone?
Speaker 2 (17:28):
Goodness, there's no fears, no.
Speaker 5 (17:30):
Way tons down.
Speaker 4 (17:43):
He's still going, Oh my god.
Speaker 2 (17:46):
The demands to do something about this album reaches man.
Speaker 5 (17:50):
Making louder and louder.
Speaker 1 (17:54):
Green Bay of Philly. Jordan love was just intercepted. We
liked Philly minus three and a half. There's less than
two minutes left in the game. The Eagles have the ball.
They're up twenty two to ten. At the risk, I'm
not saying we won, but I'm just saying there's less
than two minutes left. The Eagles have the ball, and
they're up by twelve points. You had this game at six,
(18:16):
We bettered at three and a half. We better again
at four. We better to get at four and a half.
Speaker 3 (18:21):
Kudos to you.
Speaker 1 (18:22):
The game closed at five and a half. I don't
want to spend too much time on it because I
want to leave us time to talk about next week's
games that are already lined. And also this one's not
over yet, so I don't want to fully jinx it.
But kudos because this game closed at about five and
a half skyrocketed today, which was surprising to me.
Speaker 2 (18:39):
Yeah, I'm watching around me. It's over. We can talk
about it. Yeah, this is the type.
Speaker 4 (18:44):
Of game that you know, not that we thought that
Jordan love Hall laid this big of an egg, but
we knew that something was just off of the screen.
Made team, especially coming to this game and that you know,
they had been at a rhythm and they faced an
Eagles team that the biggest question coming in was Jalen
Hurts right coming off that didn't rest, And there's no
doubt he did look rusty in this game, right, I
think the whole offense did at certain points. But it
(19:06):
also felt like it was the same old Eagles team
this season, Like it's just a team that leans on
the defense, has a great running running back and a
great quarterback that can run with the ball. So that
was the most shocking part to me was how many
QB runs Hurts did They completely Like that's why I
think it was only one week a really minimum concussion
because they didn't change the offense at all.
Speaker 2 (19:29):
I really thought that would be the biggest difference, and
there was no difference. And yeah, this is a.
Speaker 4 (19:36):
Team that even if they win ugly, it's a win.
And it's that's kind of how you want it to
be in the playoffs. You want to lean on your
defense and have a strong run game. And that's why
this team is, you know, viewed as a powerhouse right
now head into these playoffs, and you know, this game
couldn't have started any better for them, right that that hit,
that fumble touchdown pass by Hurts, and then basically you're
(19:56):
in a spot now in Green Bay that you're chasing
against one of the best aspects of this team, which
is their past defense, and they had to keep putting
the ball through the air. You know what, Jordan Love
have two turnovers, two interceptions in this game. You know,
they had a fumble on the kickoff. Josh Shacobs had
a fumble, three interceptions by Jordan Love. So yeah, just
everything basically went the exact way that he goes wanted to.
(20:17):
And this was a good game for Hurts get rushed off,
and you expect going forward, you know, we'll see what number.
I have them great out this week, but not that
I felt low in the six, but I felt like
it was crazy. I was the only one that had
the six and everyone else was much lower on it.
And I think it was just an overreaction by most
betters too. The Hurts injury, That's what I think it was,
and also the fear of like we talked about going
(20:39):
against the floor as a duck.
Speaker 2 (20:40):
He's been incredible. So yeah, a.
Speaker 4 (20:42):
Huge, huge game for the Eagles team in the sense
that they just need to show something offensively, and I
think they did today. I think it hurts, you know,
two touchdown passes in a quiet game.
Speaker 2 (20:51):
You'll take that any time.
Speaker 1 (20:53):
I was actually really impressed with the game plan and
how it progressed over the course of the game and
into the second half with Hurtz, because you know, he
had like twelve passes in the first half, maybe thirty nine,
forty yards whatever it was, and as the second half
went on, he was definitely throwing more, definitely looking downfield more.
(21:15):
Obviously the players were calling for that, but they must
have seen something in the adjustments that made them feel
comfortable doing it after halftime, and he played well like
he ended up you know, having probably I don't know
the final statue because I came up before the game
was over, but between twenty and twenty five pass attempts
I bet he completed fifteen to seventeen. Ended up having
(21:40):
a good enough game when you have Saquon Barkley and
that defense, which is just so fucking legit. I mean,
that's the reason why we were betting this game to
begin with, is just that defense. And I don't think people,
especially the betting community, is accounting for the advantage this
team has with this defense from back to front, from
coverage to tackling, there are they are fucking fierce.
Speaker 4 (22:03):
Yeah, and the fact that you know they have all
Pro and Carter in the middle and then right behind
them an all Pro linebacker. It's it's you can see
it in that game where that's that's key. And I
think I haven't had an amazing posting our chatry here.
Through four games, road teams have scored forty three total points.
So that that tells you all you need to know
right now about how big of a deal home field
is in the playoffs and why it does matter. And
(22:26):
you know, I've heard some cleutit like discussion about teams
they want to change the format, right, they don't want
to give the division winners home field.
Speaker 2 (22:32):
That to me is just so ridiculous, like that they.
Speaker 3 (22:35):
Want to give the teams with the best records, Yeah,
home field.
Speaker 2 (22:38):
I hate that. It's just keep it as it please.
Speaker 4 (22:41):
NFL, don't. Don't you keep changing so many things. Just
stop getting bored. So yeah, like we just said three
and one favorites right now. Uh, you know, it's been
super chalky. It's continued to be chalk, and you know
a little scary because right now, you know, we love
I personally really love the Bucks. So I need to
chalk to continue, and we need the home teams to
(23:01):
continue because we're on the last two teams.
Speaker 2 (23:03):
We're both home teams, So yeah, we're open.
Speaker 4 (23:05):
Chalk goes five and one of home team's sweep's that's
where we're looking at right now.
Speaker 1 (23:10):
Yeah, so we're on the Bucks tonight minus three. Kickoff
is in moments. I do want to run through these
last couple of games. Like in theory, by the way,
the Rams are the home team, but they're playing in Glendale.
Speaker 3 (23:24):
That line is a two and a half.
Speaker 1 (23:25):
I think it moved from one and a half to
two and a half when it back to it went
back to Glendale, Houston. At Kansas City, Kansas City, this
line opened at seven and a half, immediately got that
up to eight and a half, came down to eight. Obviously,
we're going to dig in in great detail in all
the games and all the lines on Tuesday, but any
first reaction, it's now down to eight. So the initial
(23:48):
money came in on Kansas City moved it up, and
then there's been a little bit of buyback on the eighth.
Speaker 4 (23:55):
Yeah, it feels like another really simple game where Houston
has been incredible covered first half spread. If that's a
side you like, take them first half because I just
see the Chiefs doing what the Chiefs do, which is
just wearing them out second half, and that's really when
they dominate teams. And if you're looking for a reason
to take Houston first half, it's like, well, they've been
dominating the first half and you expect Mahomes after twenty
(24:16):
one days off to come out a little slow, right,
That's just the basic thinking there. So and she just
who what my mind was gonna have this number act
because to me, this does feel high. This feels like
a lot of respect for this Chiefs team. But then
you have to remind yourself, oh, yeah, this is the
Chiefs at home in January against an inferior opponent. Like,
if Houston makes same mistakes they made against the Chargers,
(24:36):
it isn't going to be six nothing in the first half.
They're going to be getting down thirteen or fourteen nothing
in that first half. So yeah, I'm with you. That
one definitely jumped out. But this next game chat, this
is this is definitely the best playoff game coming up
in this next round.
Speaker 1 (24:50):
By the way, the first half line on that game
between the Texans and the chief is five and a
half Kansas City five and a half, all right, And
by the way, it's back up to eight half as
far as I can tell. Baltimore at Buffalo lined open
at I think one and a half.
Speaker 2 (25:09):
Moved back some twos.
Speaker 3 (25:11):
Did you see some twos? Yeah, now it's down to one.
Speaker 2 (25:16):
That feels right.
Speaker 3 (25:17):
So the money has come in on Baltimore it should
in this game. Uh, you have you power rated this
in any way yet?
Speaker 4 (25:27):
No, But I did take the two when the Ravens
first came out with it. It just it felt like
that was too much. And now it feels right like
this was what the number should be. I think the
Bills deserve their respect. They're the home team minus one.
That to me is the right number for the side,
and I do want to be on the Bills, honestly, Like,
I just took the two because I thought there was
value there on the Ravens, especially it's Lamar as a
(25:48):
dog obviously, But maybe I'm being a sucker here, but
my initial gut is just like, man, you're you're getting
Josh Allen at home, and I just can't see him
not willing his team to win this type of game
like he's done it all year in this exact scenario.
I just visually, I can't picture him losing this game,
especially at home. And when you dive into the matchup,
you know, the Ravens do a lot of things they
(26:10):
can counter defensively that can slow down Josh Allen. They
do have the pieces to do it. And offensively, we've
seen the teams. You know, they can't move the ball
against this Bill's team, especially offense. Like when they played
early in the year, we saw it seemed like a
huge mismatch. The Ravens seemed like the much better team
was at thirty five to ten win. I'd have to
go back and look, but it felt like it was
a blowout by that Ravens team against the Bills. Now
(26:31):
we can say both these teams are obviously way different
now this late in the season. If anything, the Ravens
are better defensively than they were at that point. And
you know this Bill's offense, I can't see them putting
up only ten points at home Like this feels like
it's going to be a shootout, back and forth type
of game.
Speaker 2 (26:46):
And yeah, if.
Speaker 4 (26:48):
It was too Chad, I would I'd be telling you,
let's let's early here take this Ravens team. But now
that's done to minus one. And again I'm not rushing
to bet it because I think you're just like man.
I could see this flipping because the pros just made
their statement they like the Baltimore side.
Speaker 2 (27:03):
I think the public will join them.
Speaker 4 (27:04):
Honestly, like Lamar, he is the guy right now, and
this Ravens team feels like the team. So I could
easily see this flip at one point. And then that's
when me and you move in if we do like
the Bills and take them as a dog.
Speaker 3 (27:16):
Yeah, it's interesting. The Ravens are the more complete.
Speaker 2 (27:20):
Team, definitely when they have six All pros.
Speaker 1 (27:23):
They got six All pros. Their defense has really turned
the corner. I mean the graphics they were showing yesterday,
which we've talked about a lot the past five weeks.
This is the number one defense across every metric since
about week ten, right, everyone says it. We have Kyle
Hamilton and did a deep safety position full time. They
(27:44):
moved Marlon Humphrey into the slot. It has completely changed
how they communicate, It has completely changed how they cover.
It has made them an almost impossible team to throw against.
Russell Wilson might be a little bit washed, but he
was facing a team that was making it very hard
for him to complete any passes. It was hard to
complete third and threes for two yards against the Ravens,
(28:08):
So that's interesting to me. Obviously, Lamar Jackson and Derrick
Henry complement each other so well. One of the reasons
why I was convinced to not bet the Bills was
because of the conversation around how bad their defense is
and what Sean Payton and Bowen Nicks would be able
(28:30):
to do against them. So why do I feel better
betting on the Bills when the Ravens offense is not
led by a ricky quarterback and has a better running
game and they'll have Za Flowers back more than likely,
So why wouldn't I play the Ravens here? Like what
(28:50):
magic does Josh Allen have against a team that is
more complete and more well rounded and a defense that
the Bills have to play against, an offense that is
really incomparable.
Speaker 4 (29:02):
Right now, if this number, like we just said, if
it was two or higher. That's where the value is
on that Ravens.
Speaker 3 (29:07):
Right, But if it gets to if it's at one,
if it's a pick.
Speaker 4 (29:11):
Yeah, the value to me it's on the Bills, just
because they should be favored in this spot because they
are the home team and it is Lamar in the
playoffs on the road. Like I don't know, if you've
seen his history, I can't think of.
Speaker 3 (29:23):
I'm not buying him. I'm not.
Speaker 4 (29:25):
But this is the same exact thing you did last year,
and I did with you last year. I'm not gonna
let you talk me into it this year. He beat
up on a bad Houston team last year and then
got smoked when he played a real team in Kansas City.
And now he's going on the road and he's playing
a real team in the Bill. So I get it, Chad,
I get your hesitation. He beat up on a shitty
Pittsburgh team that lost five in a row. Let's just
run through a real quick why their defense had this
(29:46):
incredible turnaround. They got smoked by the Eagles, right, do
you remember that game they lost twenty four to nineteen.
It was not a twenty four to nineteen game. Egles
dominated that game. They had their bye week, and then
they played the Giants Pittsburgh, a Houston team that me
and you both don't think that's good, and then cle
Even that's when they ended the season on to make
this defense sound like a Jugger or not. So there's
(30:06):
a reason for me to be skeptical here, and there's
a reason I think that the Bill should be favored.
That's that's just my whole point. But I get where
you're coming from. Like I told you, the pros agree
with you. Like the early money here is all Ravens
for good reason. It was you had Lamar and a
key number at plus two. That's that to me was
a smart bet to open up with it. But now
that it's moved down to me, that's my whole point.
It's like once it's moved below that, it's starting to
(30:27):
shift the value to this This Bills team that I
totally gary you're coming from, Chad, I do not feel
confident in their defense. All my confidence is just Josh
Allen in this spot at home, trusting if he has
the ball last, he'll win the game. Like we go
through with Josh Allen is Krypton. That has been his
defense his whole career, Like you go through everything, all
those loss in the playoffs never really been about him.
Speaker 2 (30:47):
You can't see the same about Lamoar.
Speaker 4 (30:49):
So you're right, am I excited to be that against
Lamar and Derek Henry. Fuck though, it's not something I'm
looking forward tough. That's why I'm hoping the books give
me in you a better number and I can feel
more confident at taking this bills as a dog at home.
Speaker 3 (31:02):
Or what if it turns around?
Speaker 1 (31:04):
What if you know, this is a fascinating public perception
game because the Ravens beat up on the Steelers, but
at the same number just about the Bills beat up
on the Broncos. And there's plenty of people who would
say the Broncos were playing better at the end of
the year and had a higher public sentiment rating for
(31:25):
you know, for lack of a better term, true than
the Steelers did. So there could be money coming in
on the Bills from the public by the time we
are talking about this again on Tuesday and even on Thursday.
Speaker 3 (31:36):
And in that case, yeah.
Speaker 4 (31:37):
If I can get two two and a half, mean
you I feel like are an agreement, We'll both be
on the Ravens.
Speaker 1 (31:42):
Oh my god, if this good. If I didn't, I
didn't see the two. If I had seen the two,
I would have bet the Ravens at two. I'm tempted
to bet the Ravens at one, but I will try
to keep my powder dry.
Speaker 2 (31:55):
Uh but yeah, wait till Tuesday. I don't worry.
Speaker 3 (31:58):
It's gonna be hard not to bet the Ravens. Isn't
out here? Let me ask you Ques.
Speaker 1 (32:04):
Oh well, let me ask Matt Mitchell quickly, because I
liked when he came on last week since he is
our resident Bill's fan on his entire neighborhood gets ice
cream when the Bills win a playoff game. You felt
uber confident about today's game in the wildcard round, Matt Mitchell,
tell me what you're feeling about the divisional round in
Buffalo against the Ravens.
Speaker 6 (32:23):
Yep, I did feel like Buffalo Bills would give the
Broncos an absolute fucking dose, and indeed they forrest fed
the Broncos that dose.
Speaker 2 (32:31):
Today.
Speaker 3 (32:31):
Had a great time.
Speaker 6 (32:32):
But like I said, I'm never worried that disaster will
find me. So it's looming around. I'm consumed with anxiety
about this game. I'll feel like throwing up until the
game is probably all the way over, not brimming with confidence.
I'd rather play the Chiefs twice than play the Ravens.
Speaker 2 (32:48):
I'll tell you that.
Speaker 6 (32:49):
Really, I'd rather play the Chiefs this round and then
have to play them again in the ANC Championship game.
Speaker 2 (32:54):
I hate this Ravens team.
Speaker 1 (32:56):
So this game is at six thirty pm next Sunday.
Interesting timing. Yeah, so it's reaking havoc with our schedule
a little bit.
Speaker 2 (33:08):
More on a night game.
Speaker 3 (33:10):
Yeah, we don't know.
Speaker 1 (33:11):
We don't know at this point any of the NFC
matchups we could go. I don't really want to go
through every combination permutation here. I want to be able
to go watch the Bucks game, and I want our
viewers to be able to go watch the Bucks game,
even though many many more people are listening to this
as a podcast.
Speaker 3 (33:27):
But there's so.
Speaker 1 (33:28):
Many games that are being played that have yet to
be matched up. So I don't want to run through, like,
you know, every single combination at this point.
Speaker 3 (33:39):
Simon, you agree, agree? Okay.
Speaker 1 (33:42):
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