Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:08):
Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast presented by BED three
sixty five. We are part of the Volume podcast Network.
I'm Chadmilman of the Action Network. Today is our Tuesday,
Week six episode where we break down the entire slate
of NFL games. We will discuss our exact decision and
our Simon says and start to narrow down the options
(00:31):
for our final paves to put into the Favorites podcast
one hundred thousand dollars Pro Football Pick Them Contest. Speaking
of the contest, quick reminder. Today our contest team drops
your lowest weekly score of the season. By tomorrow morning,
(00:52):
everyone will see their new total score. Then it's a
race to the finish and the forty thousand dollars First
Play prize. We went one in four this week. Unfortunately
it's our second, so we can't drop both of them.
We suffered from some brutal, brutal bad beats, which prompted
(01:13):
some reflection by me. I just want to bring some sanity,
some reason, some logic to the crazy roller coaster that
is betting on the NFL. I'm going to explain more
of that and provide some evidence in a minute, but
(01:33):
first live from our Tommy John Home Studios. I'm joined
as always by my co host, my companion, my compadre,
my BFF professional better signon Hunter, Hello, Simon, Hello Chat.
Speaker 2 (01:50):
I'm ready to get into this week. Brother about to
be one third way through the regular season, so yeah,
goes too fast, it does, and it's also things are
starting to sudden a little bit. This week. We have
ten home dogs, so the books are taking in a
lot of positions this week. So yeah, I'm excited to
break it down.
Speaker 1 (02:06):
The fact we're already getting into the middle of October,
the IDEs of October is so unsettling to me. I
flipped over to week six when I was checking the ads.
I'm like, are you kidding me? I feel like we
just started this thing. In a moment, we'll recap the
results of week five in our contest and announce the
winner of our big weekly cash prize, the Favorites Podcast
(02:30):
one hundred thousand dollars Pro Football Pick Them contest. You
can still win the weekly cash prizes, you just have
to enter visit Favorites dot actionnetwork dot com. As a reminder,
The Favorites Podcast is presented by Bet three six five
and now new BET three six five, customers get two
(02:51):
hundred dollars in bonus bets. When you bet five dollars,
sign up using promo code Favorites, deposit ten dollars. Bet
for five dollars to get two hundred dollars in bonus bets.
Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures,
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(03:12):
three sixty five must be twenty one or older and
present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia,
or eighteen and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one
eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off in
Iowa terms conditions restrictions applied. Congratulations to Week five first
(03:36):
place winner Jose Valaderes. Jose went five to zero in
the contest, nailed the Monday night football tiebreaker exactly. Jose's
taken home two thousand dollars twice the typical weekly prize,
and as always, our producer Matt Mitchell has selected his
(03:56):
Producer's Cup Award to the entry that finished dead fuck
last in the contest.
Speaker 2 (04:02):
Have you heard about the Loads loser. He's a lois
about he still keeps on try.
Speaker 1 (04:12):
This week, the Producer's Cup goes to Matt Yabuki, who
went on five missed the tiebreaker by a mere two
hundred and eighty three yards. Matt Yubuki, please email our
producer at podcasts at actionnetwork dot com to claim your prize.
All Right, I mentioned above, Simon, Don't you don't even
(04:34):
know I did this? We suffered some bad beats this
past week, right since he had double digit leads three
different times in the second half, missed a game winning
kick in ot we lost. The Rams dominated the Packers,
missed an extra point that obviously had huge impact. We lost.
(04:56):
The Steelers lost to the Cowboys on a last second
touchdown path by Dak We lost as well. Like that,
those are excruciating. You can admit that as a professional,
admit that.
Speaker 2 (05:11):
Yeah, I would say the worst part for me personally
is that Rams lost, my biggest loss since that Eagle
Super Bowl, So that one hurt for the show. But
also I've just been eating hot dogs and rice the
last two days. Chad, I'm just just gonna have to
suffer for next couple of weeks because it's just it's
hurting over here. But yeah, the Pittsburgh game was brutal
because you just nailed it in a game in which
(05:33):
the defense got us three turnovers and I blocked the
field goal. It came down to a fourth down and
on a little pick play to the third receiver, it
worked out for Dallas. So it's just, you know, one
of my strengths I believe in life is I am lucky.
Damn well, we're unlucky this past week. Just things did
not bounce our way.
Speaker 1 (05:52):
Well, look, I felt terrible for you on Sunday night
when it's seven twenty and we're watching the end of
that Rams game and the Rams can't close the deal.
And I know that the Rams ended up being your
biggest play, not just of the weekend, but just generally,
like your face on the zoom when that fourth down
(06:16):
pass fell incomplete and then you were like, yeah, now
we got to do a podcast. I was like.
Speaker 2 (06:25):
Yeah. And the worst part too, that day I started drinking.
As soon as we get done the show. It's like,
all right, we gotta booze. This is one of those
days you gotta drink. And if I always stay up
till one in the morning just to watch us lose
that Pittsburgh game. It was just like I've been watching
football since nine in the morning. Now it's one in
the morning, and I just can't damn get a wind
in the night.
Speaker 1 (06:42):
Well, listen, I did not stay up for that, and
I didn't stay up for it. I didn't stay up
for the Saint Chiefs last night. I did decide to review, though,
through five weeks, how often we had been bitten by
bad beats and benefited from lucky breaks the tally including
the three games this past week, three lucky breaks, four
(07:05):
bad beats. So I'm not going to go into each game,
but i will tell you that I do think it
generally evens out, and we will feel the bad beats
worse than we will feel the lucky breaks, and it
will feel like those are two x what the lucky
breaks are. And I say this because I think everyone
feels this right, Everyone watching games feels so much more
(07:26):
when they lose a bad beat than when they get
the lucky break.
Speaker 2 (07:30):
Well, it's not a rhythm. Also, it's like we've had
four straight weeks the game our last game out has covered.
We just can't get it right, Even this week I
gave you a fifty to fifty option and it's like,
we can't even get lucky. I'm picking the right option
of which game to take out. So now it is
it's just brutal. Where you're right, it's going to break
the other way. I get the fans. Even last year,
fansaid we had a down year. Listen, me and Chad
(07:53):
pick five sides every week, so that's ninety games total.
And even last year we had a downyear. To me
and you as well, we thought we could have done better.
We won't fifty and forty. So it's like this year
is brutal. We got a hole we gotta dig ourselves
out of. But like we just said, we're about to
be one third way through this season. No need to
panic yet, It's a long way to go. We usually
(08:14):
always write the ship, but man, these beats they've been
really tough to swallow.
Speaker 1 (08:18):
It will even out, it always does. And most importantly,
like right now, all I care about for you and
for my social media happiness is the Phillies advancing in
the playoffs because those red October tiktoks are freaking amazing.
Go Phils. Let's get let's get rolland San Francisco bat Seattle.
(08:41):
Seattle's a three point dog on the road to Thursday
night game, like, which is our overriding trend here? Are
we going with like the home dog in the division?
Are we going with the Thursday night football favorite? I
will say like, these are two teams, the only two
(09:04):
teams that lost outright when they were the seven point
or better favorite on Sunday. The questions I have from
Sunday night are still irrelevant. Are we worried about the
Niners who have looked great but are also two and
(09:25):
three and in third place in their division? Because the
Cardinals are two and three and they beat the Niners.
So it's strange because the Niners are still like a
top rated football team right according to PFF. They're number
one in offense, number one passing offense, number three, receiving,
(09:46):
number two run blocking, top six in defense. Like, the
Seattle team is good in a lot of respects and
rated highly, but they're not as good top to bottom
as the Niners. The Niners, I feel like, have had
really bad luck, especially the past your games.
Speaker 2 (10:03):
Yeah, but this is why we love betting football. We
talk all the time about this doesn't matter. If you're
the best team. You need a lot of things to
bounce your way, and it's all about how you compete
at the very end of the games. It's like, you know,
that's why if you're a Cowboys fan, I'd be on
top of the world. They were dead to right, and
Dak had an incredible drive against number one defense to
win that game. Tam can be said about the forty
nine ers, right they blew a game against the Rams,
(10:25):
and you know what you want to say, against an
Arizona team, they definitely blew that game. It's like they
had a big lead and they kind of fell apart.
So right now, this team, I feel like they're better
than the Seahawks. The Seahawks, you know, as well as
you know has played overall their defense, it looked like,
you know, we gave a little bit too much credit
for them early on because they were beating up on
(10:46):
bad teams, right like, once they started playing good offenses
in Detroit, and I mean, I don't know if I'm
saying the Giants are that good of an offense, but
they're pretty good.
Speaker 1 (10:56):
So it's like we've all is scheming right now. Yeah,
Like he gets credit.
Speaker 2 (11:00):
For that, and don't we feel the same way about
Kyle Shanahan. Like you just read all those numbers. So
it's like I wanted to be on the Seahawks because
Chad has talked about the line was three moved up
to three and a half. It's like, Okay, there's a
little bit of value there in the Seahawks. But then
when you really dive into it, is there is there
really value here or just have the forty nine ers
been unlucky in the end of games and they've kind
(11:22):
of fallen apart at the end of these games for
different reasons, right, and the end of the day, the
biggest reason to me is McCaffrey. This guy average a
touchdown a game last year, Like you take the best
running back out of that offense. Yes, the guy who's
come in, the undrafted free agent Mason's played well, but
there's a difference there. Is that closing these games out,
(11:43):
you can see a noticeable difference in McCaffrey getting ten
touches on the final carry like of the game to Mason. Right,
even that Fumbly had against Arizona kind of flipped that game.
So that's I'm trying to figure out why, Like, you're right,
why has this not been the same for this forty
Niners team even though they've been so dominant offensively. It
has to be the McCaffrey factor. There's no other There's
(12:04):
no other answer to it. It's like that's the biggest
difference from last year to this year on offense, the
closeout games. They do not have the best running back
on football. So in this matchup, I just once again,
I think the value is on them. I have this
lineup four, so it's not that much value. But as
of right now, I'm on the forty nine Ers with
the general public. But I mean, you talk all the
(12:24):
time chat. I usually like taking the favorites on these
Thursday night games, but it's tough because this number is
just it's like, man, that's a lot of points to
be given up to a forty nine Ers team that
keeps getting back door in a lot of these games.
So yeah, definitely a number I'm torn on, but I
end up betting on this forty nine Ers.
Speaker 1 (12:40):
Here the h the Christian McCaffrey factor is interesting because
the Niners are winning at the end of these games.
And I actually didn't think about it until you just
framed it the way you did. His ability to be
a dependable, consistent time swallower and gain positive yardage and
(13:05):
get them closer to the end zone, or by the way,
break one open to put a cap on the cover
and the win. Those have been the differences. Right the
end of the game against the Cardinals, they couldn't close
it out because of a fumble. The end of the
game against the Rams, they couldn't close it out because
they couldn't convert. You know, they've had flukish things, freakish things,
(13:28):
not having Jake Moody that clearly impacted their ability to
score in the red zone and make decisions in the
red zone about what they were going to do. The
Cardinals knew what they were going to do that impacted it.
It's still to me one of the better teams in
the NFC, even if.
Speaker 2 (13:44):
Right now, when this division is still right.
Speaker 1 (13:46):
Yeah, like now's a good time to bet them, So
I agree, Like I want to bet the Niners at
three and a half. You know, to me, it was
time to fade the Seahawks when they were three to
zero and everyone was calling Mike McDonald a genius for
a team that hadn't beat anybody yet, which we talked
about on the show. So next game up, it's a
London game, Jacksonville Jaguars and the Chicago Bears. Chicago Bears
(14:11):
with the number one defense according to EPA, number one,
one of the best pass rushing defenses in the NFL,
one of the best pass coverage defenses in the NFL.
A quarterback who has already thrown for two hundred yards
three hundred yards twice in his career as a Chicago Bear,
which is more than Justin Fields did in his career
(14:35):
Kyle Orton did, Rex Grossman did. The team's got a
plus five hundred record, They're plus five hundred against the spread.
The line has moved aggressively in their direction. Talk to me,
talk me off the ledge. Tell me why I shouldn't
be uphorik, Tell me why in a forty five minute
(14:57):
phone call with my buddy Matt, twenty five wasn't spent
on Caleb Williams and his ability to read defenses. I
swear to god, that's what two grown men in their
fifties talked about for an extended period of time. Explain
to me why I shouldn't be over the moon.
Speaker 2 (15:17):
And it's also just hilarious list of names, and you're
going back there. Rex Grossman, Kyle Wharton, I mean, what
wild times of the mid two thousands where the Bears.
Speaker 1 (15:26):
I mean, that's all we have to hold on to
for a run. Kyle Whorton looked like he was going
to be the second coming of Tom Brady.
Speaker 2 (15:34):
No, poor Forte man. I mean, he just never have
a quarterback his whole career in Chicago. Yeah, I mean,
I mean, me and you talk. I don't want to
beat it down too much. People know I am obsessed.
I love Williams, and you know the Week one I
was scared because I was just like, you know, I
didn't think his personality his whole career, he didn't get nervous.
(15:56):
He was always able to show up in these big
moments and make big time throws. And even in a
week two he looked a little lost, and I could
see it from you, a little bit of panic of like, man,
what is going on here? Dude? Are we messing this
kid up already? Because we don't have the coaching, but
we've seen this talent kind of shine through. Now once
we're through five weeks, and it's just you should be
over the Moon. I mean, it's very exciting, but how
(16:18):
is this not the spot to fade this team and
take this Jaguars team, Like this is the spot. But
I'll wait let the public key come in. Maybe I'll
get a three on this Jaguars team that they suck
for our last ten years of our life in this NFL.
They suck the Jaguars, you know where they don't suck
London Like I don't know why. It's their home away
(16:40):
from home. They just have always known how to travel
to London and play well. It doesn't matter whe their
coaches who if it was Blake Bortles, if it's Trevor Lawrence, like,
they've usually performed well. So I'm interested to get some
stats off Evan about these trends with this Jaguars team here.
But I already wanted to fay Chicago just because they're
a young team and this is peak, Like they are
(17:03):
so hyped up right now. They've just had a bunch
of really impressive wins back to back. You know, they
dominated the Rams in the second half that Carolina game,
they dominated from the get go right. That was their
most complete game of the season. So if you're a
Bears fan, you want to bet them, I'd grab it now.
Why not grab the two and a half. It's a
key number. I only think it goes up from here.
(17:25):
We talk at the time favorite international games. After the
Vikings win last week, they're thirty five and ten straight up,
so historically the favorite. This is the spot you want
to take them on these international games. But man, this
is this is pretty wild. How much you know just
your whole division, every one of your guys' divisions is
(17:46):
so good around it's crazy to think that you guys
are sitting here at three and two. You couldn't have
asked for a better start to this Bear season, right,
Like the way Williams is playing, the way the defense
is playing. You know, a couple of rough patches here
and there, but that's the NFL season. So yeah, to
be say, when you had three and two with rookie QB,
I know you gotta be feeling pretty good.
Speaker 1 (18:04):
So look a couple of weeks ago against the Rams,
they came back and won, and I was really frustrated
because Caleb Williams was standing in the pocket almost like
a statue, like he wasn't moving his feet, he wasn't
ready to maneuver anything like that. And again in my
weekly debriefings on this team with Matt, I was explaining
(18:24):
my frustration with this, and he said, I actually saw
that a different way. I saw that as he was
reading the defenses and going through his progressions and was
processing it all. And this week you saw a lot
of that process sped up in a much better way. Again,
the Panthers are a terrible team and a bad defense
and not a very good secondary. So you got to
(18:44):
make the throws, and they were spectacular throws. Also, all
fans can appreciate this. Ten minutes of that conversation today
was Matt apologizing and falling on his sword for saying
the Bears made a terrible mistake and drafting Caleb william
and they shouldn't get Justin Fields. So you know, there
(19:05):
hasn't been any panic in Chicago. We haven't been writing
the roller coaster in any way whatsoever. But we sure
are glad we have Cayler Williams right now.
Speaker 2 (19:15):
I'm not going to embarrassing as that they're amit there,
but they're just different tiers. Like on Justin Justin Fields,
his his ceiling was never going to be anywhere close
to what Caleb Williams ceiling is, which is, well, you
guys are hoping he can turn into a form of
Patrick Mahomes. That movement in the pocket. It's just Field's
never had the fields had the one or two read
pull it down on it, which is really special. But
(19:37):
Caleb is able to pull it down create plays on
his own, which is in this NFL. You know, that's
just everything the top the best quarterbacks like Josh Allen,
Joe Burrow, Mahomes, that's lamar, that's what they do.
Speaker 1 (19:48):
So listen, we can't even put that game in the contest.
I want to spend too much time on it. Yeah,
you have said what you're going to do, what you're
hoping to do. I'm probably going to pass on this game.
I can't stand the emotion. Washington and Baltimore. Washington is
a six and a half point dog. You flag this
on Sunday night. You wanted to bet Washington. So here's
the scary part. Like the Commander's O line was supposed
(20:11):
to be terrible, but they're top five in pass blocking
right now. Meanwhile, the Ravens are bottom third in coverage,
which is why we've seen Burrow light them up and
why until last night Patrick Mahomes was like they were
the only defense he could score against. So the logic
(20:31):
to me is like, will this be a shootout? And
because of that, does that mean there is a greater
chance Washington has to keep this game close? Are you
still leading Washington six and a half?
Speaker 2 (20:47):
I am, But the professionals think that Washington gets absolutely
rolled here by this Ravens team. They like the matchup
for the Ravens, they like the veteranship of the Ravens
versus young Washington team. But I keep pushing back against them.
You guys have said that for the last two straight weeks.
You said that against Arizona, and you said it again
against Cleveland. And I know some sharp groups that were
heavy on Cleveland. I mean they really moved that number.
(21:10):
It was three and a half. A lot of books
are back down to three before kick. Like that's some
really heavy sharp money moving that number down because so
much public money was on Washington. I told you this
to me was the most public play of the week
for me, Like I knew this was gonna be a
really heavy public dog. And it feels like Arizona last week,
Like I'm trying to have to get bullied off this
one because I do see their reasoning that, yes, no
(21:33):
one's denying Baltimore is, you know what number two team
right now in the AFC. I mean you could even
if you wanted to put them above case, but I wouldn't.
But it's just they've played that well against a really
tough schedule, and they probably should you know, a couple
things bounced their way. They probably should be the top
of the AFC right now that they should have probably
beat the Chiefs and a bunch of other stuff. So yeah,
I get the love for the Ravens, but it's just like,
(21:57):
isn't this a good matchup for Jane Daniels. You just
said it. The Ravens can be passed on. This kid
has a great arm and he's comfortable right now. So
you're right, there's something I need to dive into more.
But I have bet this at plus six and a half.
You know, I don't know what I'm missing right now
with this one with Washington, where it's like, I don't
I think the books that I have are wrong on
(22:18):
this one. And you know there's plenty of professionals out
there to think, no, they have this right. The hype
is too high on Washington team. This is a good
spot to sell high on them, and I think they're
just banking on Eventually Jane Daniels is going to have
a bad game. Everyone has bad games. I mean it's
the NFL. Eventually it happens. And like this is the
classic case of whatever save against the Arizonaly bet ten thousand.
(22:42):
The next week they bet twenty, the next week they
bet thirty, and it's like, you guys are just gonna
keep chasing this kid on Washington. So yeah, maybe I'll
flip by come Thursday if I get more info. But
as we sit here right now, nothing changed from Sunday.
Still still like Washington, still like the matcher for Jane Daniels,
And I think Washington defense has been playing better. And
then we give them credit for right. They were really
bad to start the year. They've improved every week. You've
(23:05):
seen them get confidence. I kind of get an identity here,
so's it's been really impressive. But Washington's done these last
four or five weeks.
Speaker 1 (23:12):
Yeah, it is interesting. You know, when I was doing
the research yesterday, I really wanted to find the thin
sliced data point that shows me Washington is doing what
I thought they were doing defensively, because I agree, like
you watch their games and it's not just the offense.
It's the defense that is keeping points down, that is
(23:34):
stopping people. But their sort of advanced metrics are all
still terrible. Like they're not great in coverage, they're not
great as a pass rush, they're not great tackling. Their
overall ranking isn't very good.
Speaker 2 (23:51):
It's an interesting they shouldn't be named two defensive players.
Speaker 1 (23:55):
But that's what I mean, Like, I'm not disagree with you.
I wanted to find like why do my eyes tell
me Washington's defense is better than what the numbers are saying,
because it is. Is it just they're playing good in
the right spots, like scheme wise, the right play calls.
Dan Quinn and his defensive staff are thoughtful about what
(24:15):
they need to do in the exact moment they need
to do it, and the rest of the time teams
are sort of having the ability.
Speaker 2 (24:19):
We're trying to play catch up, right, that's the biggest thing.
They're being forced to pass. They're chasing this offense, and
that's been the success for Washington. They know they can
pin their ears back because teams are having to throw
the ball. We said, in the way the NFL is now,
if you can't run the ball, you're doomed. Like you
need to be able to control the clock that way.
That if teams know you're just gonna be passing, pass
and pass, and they can attack you. So I'm with
you on that, like I don't. The Washington defense has
(24:41):
been even more surprising than their offense to this point.
I can't believe how well they've played these last three weeks.
Speaker 1 (24:47):
This is an interesting game this week. It is a
classic spot. Are you going to sell high? And do
you keep trying to sell high? We do the same
thing on the other side. This team has to be undervalued.
It has to be undervalued the Commanders right now, we're
saying they have to be overvalued. Houston and New England
we talked about this Sunday night. We said we were
going to bet it Sunday night. We did bet it
(25:09):
Sunday night. It was at I think was it at
seven or seven and a half? Yeah, it was at
seven and a half, right, we got that seven, but no,
it was seven. It was seven. But we did the
same thing last week with the Cardinals. We were full
of Bravado. We said we were going to bet the Cardinals.
It's what we do, simon. As of Sunday, NFL underdogs
(25:35):
six plus points are now eleven and eight straight up
sixteen to two and one against the spread this season,
the first time since nineteen sixty dogs of six plus
points are over five hundred straight up through five weeks.
This is the best against the spread win percentage we've
(25:56):
ever seen. So again, similar, it's the flip side of
the conversation we just had. Is this when you get
off that train? You know? Yeah, But here's the thing,
Like CJ. Stroud, this team has really struggled on first
and second down. They've clearly missed Joe Mixon in those
(26:18):
sort of high efficiency moments to get them to third
and fourth down in short yard of situations. They keep
getting penalties as an offense on first and second down.
It's really inhibiting CJ. Stroud in those later downs. This
is a luck ranking game, huge gap between New England
and Houston, and Nico Collins probably is going to be out,
(26:43):
and we saw what happened when Nico Collins was out
against Buffalo, and so I do think that bodes well
for us again I'm not saying we're going to put
in the contest. We did bet it, both of us
have bet it. You can see it in the app.
I bet it at seven. But we're not gonna put
it in the contest. Simon, We're not putting it in
(27:06):
the contest.
Speaker 2 (27:07):
Why do you keep saying that?
Speaker 1 (27:09):
Because what we're gonna end up putting in the contest.
Speaker 2 (27:11):
Yeah, I was just saying to me, this is just
this is a game we can't avoid. Like I knew
we were gonna love this number on Sunday Night, and
it's like, this is what this show does. We bet
these type of spots. Am I little scared because it's
Drake may coming in? Not really honestly. I mean I
saw there was throws to make for Brissett and he
just didn't make them. Like that's a guy that just
(27:31):
isn't that good. And like just watching these rookies, like, okay,
there is upside with these guys once they get it
figured out. Hesitation for me is we're betting on a
rookie in his first game like that. That's always a
scarier proposition. And you saw this year. Look how much
these qbs have grown just this year at least three
starters from their Week one game, right, Jane Daniels, You
would even recognize it if you go back and watch
(27:52):
his Week one tape. Williams too, Yeah, I would say,
Sam Williams.
Speaker 1 (27:57):
So that's the looks exactly the same. He looks exactly
in the same.
Speaker 2 (28:03):
That's the fear with us betting this number. It's like
we're getting we're getting a rookie in this spot. But
I love Drake May's tape so much. I love his
upside so much. It's like he to me, he's gonna
bring such another element to this offense with him being
able to run the ball, like people don't understand. He's sneakly, athletic,
obviously is a great arm, Like there's just gonna be
a bunch of bunch of throws. We're gonna need him
(28:24):
to make Chad that we're gonna be relying on this
rookie for if it is the starter. So I'm grabbing
the seven now. I could see it going up. If
it is Drake May, that is clear to be the starter.
Maybe it does bump up to seven and a half,
which once again be even harder for us to pass
on that number. In the contest, But you're right, this
trend is gonna go the other way eventually. That's the
(28:45):
crazy part about It's like last week I thought it
was gonna go the other way, it just got even better.
So it is tough to read these trends. You don't
know which way they're gonna go. And it's like, even
we'd like the number, it's a little scary. But right now,
if it's per Set, I have a point of value.
If it's Drake may I have half a point of
value on this number. It's just a trend spot, a
(29:05):
spot we like to fade CJ in. So if Nico
Collins Joe Mixon's that both are out, guarantee this will
be one on me and Chad's five. This even if
it is Drake.
Speaker 1 (29:14):
May I think even if Nico Collins is out, this
might end up being yeah, one of our five, we're
gonna be hard pressed to ignore it. And it's not
like it's not like if there's a reversal of this trend,
if there is some regression for the Big six plus
underdogs to all of a sudden start cratering and not
be sixteen and two against the spread, which is obviously unsustainable.
Speaker 2 (29:39):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (29:40):
The next game on the board is Cleveland visiting Philadelphia.
Cleveland is an eight and a half point underdog. Yeah,
team that is coming off a bye, and it's very
possible that could be the game where there ends up
being some regression. Very hard game to handicap. Andrew Beaton
from the Wall Street Journal, he's a writer for the Journal,
(30:01):
had a great story this week about Deshaun Watson and
he pointed out some things that we've all sort of
noticed but we haven't pinpointed, which is obviously, Deshaun Watson
has not been the same quarterback in Cleveland that he
was in Houston Offensively, Could there be lingering issues with
(30:23):
the shoulder injury that are creating challenges for him to
get the ball and make the throws that he really
wants to make. The offense is not making the calls
that they would normally make. It seems like a very
conservative offense. A lot of checkdowns, a lot of throws
that are to the side and not downfield. Are they
afraid that he's not able to make those throws, that
(30:45):
he doesn't have the confidence to make those throws? But
he also made a really good point some of the
analysts that he quoted in the story talked about how
Deshaun Watson is not looking downfield when the pass rush comes.
And we've noticed this, right, Patrick Homes, Lamar Jackson. The
best quarterbacks, they've got their eyes down field even when
the rush is coming in their face. Deshaun Watson isn't
(31:09):
doing that. He sees the rush, he's looking at the
rush and then he's bailing immediately. Like there's massive differences
and those aren't going to change no matter how big
of an underdog he is.
Speaker 2 (31:21):
No, it's who will never truly know why he regressed
so much. I mean, he was if you go back
and watch, he was incredible. I mean I think he
won three straight divisions with us.
Speaker 1 (31:33):
By the NFL quarterback when he was in Houston, Top five,
there's no argument.
Speaker 2 (31:38):
Yeah. And I remember they were one of those teams
that you talk about the list of teams that were
like whatever it is, one in four, zero to three
to start a season to make the playoffs. Houston was
one of those teams with Watson like that. I remember
that season they won like eleven straight games before they
were into the juggernaut that is the Kansas City Chiefs.
Speaker 1 (31:56):
And they cover that game, by the way, right in
the playoffs.
Speaker 2 (32:00):
So it is it's bizarre. I feel so bad for
Browns fans because I wouldn't even be able to watch.
I don't think that team, like I just have sustained
for this man. He's so terrible as a human being
and equally on the football field, Like he quit on
his team last week. And I don't care what he
said to the media afterwards, Like everyone that watched that film,
(32:22):
anyone that played sports disgust in Kevin Stefanski's face when
he walked off the field on that fourth down. It
made my blood. Boy, it's just he's just this asshole.
I hate Deshaun Watson so much. So part of me
is happy this is happening because it's just like this
guy is a horrible person. But I just feel bad
for the Browns fans. They're one of my favorite fan bases.
(32:42):
No one's more tortured than them, the Bills in Detroit,
like they're just it's just brutal for Browns fans, Like
they have the team, they just don't have the leader.
I want to take the Eagles here, just because they're
getting aj back, they're getting Smith back, getting lane Johnson back.
It's after a bye week, like there should be so
much fresher at home. But as Chad just said, we're
(33:07):
supposed to take the Browns or this is a big number,
and the Eagles haven't blown anyone out in like three years,
so I don't think he goes deserve this much respect.
I'll put all my hate aside. I'll take the plus number,
but this is definitely not one. I'll make one of
my five, but I'll I.
Speaker 1 (33:24):
Gotta tell you, I did not see you saying that.
Everything you said about Deshan Watson doesn't surprise me at all.
The fact you say you are taking the Browns at
plus eight and a half, I am stone cold shocked.
Speaker 2 (33:40):
These are not good. This is way too much respect
to a team. Well, I know that doesn't respect.
Speaker 1 (33:45):
Coming off the buy. I don't know that they deserve
to get eight and a half points. This feels like
a line that you're giving to a team that has
been dominating heading into the by.
Speaker 2 (33:55):
I think he says more about Cleveland, don't you.
Speaker 1 (33:57):
It does, But it's the line you give to a
team that you believe. He was a clear consensus number
one seed and is dominant against a team that is terrible,
and so I think this says a lot about Cleveland,
but I think it also says a lot about sort
of mispricing what you believe the Eagles to be and
(34:20):
everything you just said. People coming back from the injured
list and them getting a week off, some of these
coaching decision making, strategic issues that they've had for the
entirety of their season, and going back to last season,
(34:41):
they kind of still exist. The secondary is still not
that great, the linebackers are still not that great. We
don't know what kind of player we're going to get
from that defensive line, whether it's Jordan Davis or Jalen Carter,
Like those questions were existing before all these guys got hurt.
So it feels like a lot of points. I don't
(35:02):
even want to talk about Cleveland Browns again in this context.
There's no way. There's no way we're putting this game
in the contest.
Speaker 2 (35:09):
I agree, no way.
Speaker 1 (35:13):
India, Tennessee Joe Flacco number one quarterback in the league
in EPA, which is basically a very advanced metric that
tells you how effective you are on a play by
play base. Number one quarterback in the league EPA last week.
Let me give you a stat line, thirty three forty
four three point fifty nine three touchdowns against the Jags,
(35:35):
nearly pulled off a miracle comeback. Made Doug Peterson look
like he wanted to melt into the Florida sun. He
just wanted to eliminate himself from any of the conversations
after he hit that game time touchdown pass. Like Doug
Peterson looked miserable. Joe Flacco also had a nineteen yard
(35:59):
run thirty nine years old. Whatever this guy is good
for him? Like, the guy is just flat out balling.
And I think we feel worse about the Colts if
it was gonna be Anthony Richardson. I don't like. I
have concerns about this team. DeForest Buckner not playing until
at least week seven, Jonathan Taylor is still TBD with
(36:21):
an ankle spraying. We don't know. I don't know that
Will Levis with a week off is any better. I'm
happy to ignore this game unless you have a strong opinion.
Speaker 2 (36:33):
It isn't the Joe Flacco thing, though he never played
this well even in his prime years for the Ravens, like.
Speaker 1 (36:38):
He was rejuvenated. It's almost like he feels free, unburdened exactly.
I was gonna say unburdened. Like everything is gravy right now.
Any way he plays it doesn't matter. So he is loose,
he is slinging it. He's not trying to live up
to expectations. He's not trying to prove he's elite, not
trying to prove up that he's worthy of that big contract.
(37:00):
He's just having fun because he's got perspective. It's amazing
to watch.
Speaker 2 (37:05):
And like you just said though, like he's he's incredible
when he is on, like it's it's wild to watch. Rude,
you wouldn't think he's thirty eight, thirty nine years old.
He looks so locked in and his arm strength is
just off the charts, like his deep balls are still perfect. Yeah,
like this this game is fishy? Why would we not
take the Colts here? So I'm with you, I'll have
(37:26):
a better read come Thursday, and on this one we'll
definitely bring it up again people. But instant read on
this one is I have this number of minus two
and a half for the Colts. Love the number on
the Colts. Why would I not take the Colts here?
I was kicking myself last Sunday with two minutes into that,
I was like, how did we not we sit on
the show. We would take the Colts if they were
at three and a half, and somehow we forgot to
take them Sunday morning, and like, of course they covered
(37:49):
that number because it's Joe Flaka. You're just You're never
dead when you have Joe Flacco in at QB. So
the books know something I'm missing here. So this is
what I'm gonna wait and see, get more info on
it come Thursday.
Speaker 1 (38:00):
For the old heads, I don't think we can call
Joe Flacco battered Flacco anymore. He's like a light, grilled,
tasty summary Flaco. Now. He's a guy who brings us joy,
makes us feel healthy, and inspires us. He's not a
(38:22):
battered Flacco. Scooch is going to have to find a
new recipe for the record. Though home underdogs last decade
in September October fifty nine percent against the spread. And
the reason why we highlight September October is because you
get later in the season when a lot of these
division games happen. Sure, a lot of these games will
(38:44):
have huge impact on the playoffs, but a lot of them.
Season's over, like you're getting scrubs versus teams trying to
make the playoffs, like there could be imbalance. So I
think it's a true measure of this stat when you
get it in September October. Not saying we want to
take the Titans. I'm just saying, yeah, that's why we
think about the Titans. Here I mentioned at the top
(39:07):
of the show, we are coming to you live from
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(39:30):
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(39:53):
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when I read them.
Speaker 2 (40:06):
Because I don't know where you're gonna go. I don't
know if you're talking about your underwear, your shirt, what
are you gonna be saying next?
Speaker 1 (40:12):
Arizona Green Bay, Green Bay five point favorite. This is
a funky line, Like I'm surprised it hasn't moved one way.
Speaker 2 (40:19):
It did it one of the five and a half
it came back down?
Speaker 1 (40:21):
But oh it did I didn't even see that. Yeah,
Like I said this on Sunday night, the eye test,
the fade test, it all makes me want to take.
Speaker 2 (40:31):
I'm with you the packers. Yeah. And even though like
I don't have much value on this line either, I
think it is good. I think it's a good number,
and I think there's the book hung or a good
number to get fair action on both sides. Pretty much
like you know, if you took Arizona last week and
you're feeling pretty good on the flip side, Green Bay,
it feels like they kind of stolen last week and
(40:52):
that you know, Jordan Love has looked rusty since coming
back from this injury, right, he's not really in a rhythm.
You know. They also have a bunch of drama right
now with who was a dobbs? I remember, Yeah, was
getting upset because they weren't getting touches even though he
was second on the team and at the Y two
position in touches, which was just it was very wide receiver.
(41:12):
Elect to be a diva in that sense. But I'm
with you. I've actually come around on this green bag.
You're right, this is like a nice spot on the
flip side. If we lose this, I'll be happy for
our future market because this is like, Okay, this is
really Kyler truly taking that next step. Because I said
before that forty nine Ers game, I thought he had
(41:32):
regressed after the Rams game, like he was so good
that you were like, Okay, he's gonna keep getting better
throughout this season. Did not happen, right, and then thankfully
he played pretty damn well against that forty nine Ers team.
Here is even more so, like this is what me
and chatter are saying here is we don't believe in you, Kyler.
This is a game you always lose and you never cover.
You always have a letdown after these big wins historically.
(41:56):
So I'm with you. This is literally a proven to
be kind of bet here on this on this Green
Bay team, we're saying to theay Arizona, it's like, Okay,
you guys are going to be the sixth seventh seed
this year, maybe contend for your division. This is a
game you must win, and I don't think they're going to.
I do think this is a good matchup for Green Bay,
especially the way they've been running the ball. This is
(42:17):
a nice matchup defensively as well for takeaways against Kyler.
So I'm with you, Chad. It took me to come around.
I wasn't there Sunday night, but now here on Tuesday.
I'm with you. I like the screen Bay. This might
be one of our only favorites we agree on, but
I think we both like this side.
Speaker 1 (42:31):
Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose, Simon, and that's what
we have right now. It's interesting you say that about Kyler.
We don't love Green Bay's defense necessarily as a unit. No,
I have to give them credit for their ability to
ballhawk right. And they picked up a couple more interceptions
(42:52):
against the Rams on Sunday, and this is a situation,
Kyler has the tendency to just backfoot toss it. He
will try to make it a fifty to fifty ball.
He will just let it loose. He does that. We've
talked about the Packers and their proclivity sat season proclivity
(43:15):
for interceptions. This year, with Jeff Hafley new defensive coordinator,
they've already got more picks than they had all of
last year. That was true two weeks ago. And so
I like the opportunity against Kyler to make some mistakes
on the road. A come down spot for sure. But
also this to me is about the Cardinals defense, and
(43:38):
like Brock Purdy was definitely having his way against that defense.
This is not a good pass rush defense. It is
not a good pass coverage defense. I think this is
a game. Now is third game back, Jordan Love gets
a little more comfortable, he's back at home. They cannot
do the same things that the Vikings did against the
(43:58):
Packers in his first game, where they could confuse him
and don't forget in the second half of that game,
he got much better. He brought that team back. So
I like the spot for the Packers. I don't like
the spot for the Cardinals, and I find some matchup
opportunities that I think play to our favor all right,
I'm glad we got there. Boy, we screwed up on
the Tampa Bay game because I think before last night,
(44:22):
Tampa Bay was a two and a half point dog.
Now because of Derek Carr's injury and the status and
the way they played, now Tampa Bay is a two
and a half point favorite. I don't have anything to
say about this game specifically. Do you have strong thoughts here? Yeah?
Speaker 2 (44:37):
It was gonna be a great spot for the Saints.
Now it's like, how do you not load up on
the Bucks in this spot?
Speaker 1 (44:43):
Now? Yeah?
Speaker 2 (44:43):
Like the biggest reason I was going to kind of
lean towards the Bucks was Vitavey, Like this is the
perfect game for him where it's like, how do you
beat this Saints team? And we've learned now through five
weeks you got to take away the run. Once you
take that away, it kind of threw is the whole
offense out of a rhythm. And you know, Derek Carr,
(45:03):
he's gonna try to burn you once or twice with
those deep shots. But you know this backup, QB, I
have zero idea what this kid can do passing the ball.
I don't really know anything about them, but no, this
number two and a half, I grabbed it just in
case it is Derek Carr out. This number will only
go up to me. I mean, especially the way the
Bucks have been playing offensively. It's like, you know, I
(45:26):
know the Saints defense isn't as bad as they showed
in that Chiefs game, but there's still ways to attack
this team. I think the Bucks, of all teams know
how to do that, right they They usually historically Lattimore
kind of shuts down like Evans. That's usually a good
guy win game. That's another thing you can look towards. So, yeah,
this is unfortunate, Like this was gonna be a nice
spot to back this Saints team at home. Now it's like,
(45:50):
how do you not love the Bucks of this number?
Like that's a nice, nice value. I can only see
this going up. Even when I looked before you mentioned
the game, I saw a couple books already showing threes
on the So yeah, if you like Tam i'd grab
it now just in case he is in fact out
of this game. Derek Carr.
Speaker 1 (46:06):
I mean, look, they were terrible last night against the Chiefs,
and yet through much of the game, deep into the
third quarter, they were still in it. I mentioned I
turned it off. I turned it off last night. They
had third and eight in Chiefs territory. When you make
that third down call, you know you're going to go
(46:27):
for it on fourth down. And on that third down,
because you're the position you're in, you can't keep the
field goal. It's a little bit too far. You're going
to give the Chiefs good field position if you miss
it. It was like a sixty year field goal. But you
need to keep moving. And like you know, if you
don't score in that series, the game is probably over.
The Chiefs are going to do something to get themselves
in a position to score again. You need to go
for it on fourth down. Their fourth down call was
(46:51):
a deep pass down the right sideline, and Derek Carr
had not been hitting those passes all day. And then
on fourth down, you know they're going to bring a blitz.
They bring the entire everybody at zero coverage. They can't
complete it obviously, and that's when Derek Carr gets hurt. Like,
(47:12):
there's a lot of faulty decision making on this Saints team,
and I think some of the performance of Derek Carr
has overshadowed that and maybe papered over some of the
really bad coaching. Lost a lot of faith in the
Saints last night. Gotta say didn't have much to begin
with now I have even less. Pittsburgh Steelers going on
(47:32):
the road at Las Vegas minus three. Kind of don't
like anything here. I don't like the Raiders QB issues.
I don't like their offensive issues. I don't like defensive issues.
I don't like the Steelers on the road as a favorite.
That's a terrible Tomlin spot.
Speaker 2 (47:47):
So get the opponent. They name those gray faces.
Speaker 1 (47:50):
Tomlin on the road thirty three, forty one and two
is a favorite against the spread forty five percent in
his career, you know, by comp as a road dog
nearly sixty percent against the spread in his career. You're
signing that feels to me like you want to bet
the Steelers, but you know you don't.
Speaker 2 (48:07):
Know, no, no, You're supposed to bet the Raiders here.
This is historically a nice spot to back the Raiders
at home against a team that defensively their splits are different.
They're great outdoors indoors. They're just not the same team.
Usually like this. They're just not good when it's a
fast surface. That's how the Raiders want to beat teams.
(48:28):
You're right, I don't know who the hell the quarterback
is of the Raiders right now as we sit here
on Tuesday. So I'm not putting any money to this
one yet either. On the flip side, I'm hoping hoping
it's Russell Wilson. I heard some whispers that they might
turn to Russell Wilson. Now, to me, that would be
that would be great if that's true.
Speaker 1 (48:48):
I hadn't heard that.
Speaker 2 (48:49):
Yeah, I mean just from my view, I think they
had the same view. Brother we had Sunday night of
like there were guys open. He just had a horrible
game just in fields and and you know that's been
the knock on him. He's been inconsistent in his whole career.
That's a game you just have to win. Like your
defense did everything, put you in so many great positions
(49:09):
to win that game. I just could not get anything
going against are really banged up Dallas defense. So yeah,
we'll see, as we say here Tuesday. Right now, Field
is still the quarterback and we have no idea who
the Raiders quarterback. If come Thursday, it's Minshew and it's
Russell Wilson. I'll take this plus three almost every time
with this Raiders team.
Speaker 1 (49:30):
I thought that coaching decision to take out Minshew was
really strange. I mean, look, he that killed him.
Speaker 2 (49:36):
Though I'd be pissed too. They were dominating that game
and he completely sandbag.
Speaker 1 (49:40):
They were going to win that game going away. They
were about to go up seventeen to three. He airmailed
the ball that was picked off by certain and terrible
run back one hundred yards for a pick six, and
that that completely changed the tone and tenor of the game.
And they you know, they couldn't get their footing back.
But it just creates a controversy for this week. And
(50:00):
Aidan O'Connell was terrible. So like CARDI, Minshew at least
will make the throw. You can get the ball down field.
But we're gonna pause on that one. LA Chargers at
Denver Broncos. Denver Broncos are three point home dogs. This
is a brutal, a brutal handicap.
Speaker 2 (50:17):
What a line, though, Were you shocked by this line?
I was shocked when I saw this line.
Speaker 1 (50:21):
Shocked, Yeah, shocked because it makes me want to take
the dog. Of course, I want to take the home
dog in the division.
Speaker 2 (50:31):
Herbert hasn't looked healthy in three weeks, doesn't matter they
had a bye week. It's like, isn't this a three
to four week injury that needs a heal from?
Speaker 1 (50:38):
So here's the thing. You know, during the NCAA tournament,
you always get these bet on games right where the
way the seatings work out, you end up getting the
two teams that you believe are undervalued and you want
to bet on both of them, but you're hoping they
were going to play like Duke in North Carolina, not
each other in the eight nine game. This has the
(51:00):
feel of that to me, because we've got Jim Harbaugh,
who's been brilliant as an NFL coach against the spread,
against Sean Payton, who's been brilliant as an NFL coach
against the spread, who, by the way, like he has
to be all in on Boon Knicks. He is reached
for a second round quarterback in the middle of the
(51:21):
first round and then invested his entire offense in developing
around this guy. He has to work for Sean Payton
have any success at the Broncos right now, and like,
I don't want to bet against Sean Payton, but he's
Jim Harbaugh's offa by Herbert was still wearing the ankle
(51:43):
brace in practice, but we know Joe All was a
full participant. Slater and Bosa practiced, although on the sideline
could be trending to playing. It's like, what are we
doing here?
Speaker 2 (51:57):
No, don't tell me the week I'm either on the charge,
I'm not been in this game at all because I
just don't understand this line at all. So I'll trust
the books and I'll just go against my molleory and
be like, you know what you just said it. They
must think you get both those guys up front for
that old line on this Chargers team, you're neutralized. What's
been so great for that Denver team? Like Denver's D
(52:18):
line has been incredible. Yeah, so you know this whole
game plan, it doesn't really cater towards whatever it is.
It's just the books are looking at this saying this,
this is definitely a Chargers side that it favors them
this matchup. So I'll trust them here, Chad, and I'll
kind I'll kind of swallow my pride here and I'll
(52:40):
ride with the book here. But man, do I have
no confidence in making this bet? I just I'm missing something.
I don't know what they're seeing, but they're clearly seeing
something here.
Speaker 1 (52:48):
Maybe this will be a sharp cause, right, maybe we'll
get some some intel on this. What do you have?
A power rated at one?
Speaker 2 (52:55):
So I had it, literally, I have the Chargers if
it was going to be a pick. Once I heard
Herbert was all good and he was gonna actually play
this game, moved it up to one. They should be
a one point favorite, right, you just said it, like
they're the better, more veteran team. The Broncos are playing
with house money. Sitting here at three and two through
five weeks. I mean, this is incredible how well they've
played early here in the season. So yeah, you just
(53:18):
expect this rookie to cost them a couple of games,
Like there's a reason, like you just said, there's a
reason he did went so late where he did. But
they've just been hiding it. They've been protecting against it,
and it's really incredible how they've made it work earlier
in the season, Like they just don't let this kid
eat them where you know, looking at Tennessee, they can't
stop Will Levis from beating them. They have to take
(53:39):
them out of the game so they can win a
freaking game with Mason Rudolph, you know. So it is
just night and day. These different teams. They are different
the way they build and how they coach these guys.
So yeah, like I said, there's something I'm clearly missing here,
Like there's two points of value in my model right
now to Denver. But something's off, something a little fishy
with this line. So yeah, right now back to Chargers,
(54:00):
but definitely a game I'm going to dive into more.
Speaker 1 (54:02):
I'm so glad you said that because when I was
doing my research all day Monday and then even into
this morning, I kept thinking I want to back the Chargers,
like I just I'm not trusting what I'm seeing from
bo Nicks, right, you know. And what's nice about getting
(54:23):
four or five games under your belt is you can
deconstruct the team's progress and their wins and losses and
what three and two really looks like. Right, there's sort
of a gambling transitive property. The Broncos played close against
the Seahawks. Did we think the Seahawks were not as good?
Did we think the Broncos were better. Now we're starting
(54:45):
to see maybe the Seahawks weren't as good. Then the
Broncos beat up on the Jets in the Meadowlands in
a really bad weather game. They executed at the end,
the Jets did not. Does that mean the Broncos are
better because we were starting to believe in the Jets. No,
it turns out the Jets might have just been really
dysfunctional and that they aren't able to win those games,
(55:07):
and now they fired their coach. So how are we
thinking about the Broncos versus the Chargers, who to me,
there's less volatility, Like if you looked at their EKG,
you know what you're getting. Every single time when we've
talked about this, it's why we bet the Chargers is
seven or a half point underdogs against the Chiefs. They're
(55:30):
a consistent team. We know what the mindset is. We
know they want to be physical, we know they want
to run the ball, we know they want to play
aggressive defense. We know that they are building the team
around the players that can do that. They don't want
Herbert to make mistakes for them, Like they're in line
to be the adult team in this game? Do you
know what I mean?
Speaker 2 (55:48):
And that's the key too, is they just his Harbass.
Whole thing this year has just been Herbert is not
going to lose us games. We are not turning the
ball over. If we don't turn the ball over and
we let the other team make a mistake, that's how
we'll win games. And that's what they've done this season.
They've just played this really boring, sluggish, drawl it out,
punch you in the mouth, running football with Herbert every
(56:10):
now and then have a nice play on play action read.
But he's not turning the ball over. And that's really
been their identity. It's like they eventually they just wait,
like a venus fly trap. They wait for you to
make a mistake and then they pounce and it's it's
been working. Like even in that Chiefs game, I felt
like we were gonna win that game if Herbert really
hadn't gotten hurt again, like they were up I think
was a ten to nothing at one point whatever it was.
(56:31):
It was like, they're gonna win this game if they
get another touchdown here, and obviously he got more banged
up and they just they couldn't get there. But yeah,
there I could see. It's starting to make sense to
why this number is what it is. But at the
same time, it's just it's a funny number. Just can
we talk all the time? We really usually want to
take these divisional home dogs, especially in October.
Speaker 1 (56:51):
Harball is so predictable. He's not trying to be sexy.
He's told us his entire career who he is. We
know what we're going to get, less volatility. I know
the line is funky. I want to hear more intel
from the sharp calls or whatever else you find out
over the next forty eight hours. It's not a bet yet,
but it's on the list. Another game on the list
(57:13):
Detroit at the Dallas Cowboys. Look, you talked about this
on Sunday. The Cowboys are three and a half point
home underdogs. We would normally hate taking a road favorite
like this that we're hesitating on the Chargers right as
road favorites.
Speaker 2 (57:28):
You started as public as we get with public best.
Speaker 1 (57:31):
You started the show nine home underdogs this week. This
is a week where we like to eat. But you
Saturday Sunday night, Detroit at minus three, it's gone up
to three and a half. I don't think that's public money.
Earlier in the week. I think that's pros betting on
the Lions, and I don't disagree. I got a whole
(57:53):
boatload of research and matchup that makes me feel that way.
But you're still feeling that way.
Speaker 2 (58:00):
Detroit? Yeah, how is this not a slam dunk? Another
great matchup for Detroit, Like all their strengths is this
Cowboys team weaknesses like they should be able to run
it down Dallas' throat and defensively, I don't think they
mind Dak passing the ball a lot, like their defense
(58:22):
can't get turnovers. They're not as bad as they used
to be, especially in the secondary. So yeah, I love
this matchup, especially when it's at three. But this is
gonna be the most public side of the week. I mean,
how does every Joe public now walk in and take
a minus three on the lines here? I just I
think everyone's looking at this Dallas team and just thinking fraudulent,
Like across the board, there's just so many things you
(58:44):
don't trust about them. And you know, had tipped to
Dak that was incredible him him driving. I had no
faith that he was gonna actually drive that field against
that Pittsburgh defense. It was just vintage Pittsburgh finds a
way to win that game, an ugly game that's such
a Tomlin game where he wins and you know, sure enough,
I think it was like a bad snap, they fumbled
out of the back whatever it was, and it's like
(59:05):
fourth and four. I was like, there's no way they're
going to get this and Dak big time throw, perfect touch,
put it right where he needed to. That's that's why
you pay a guy like him that that kind of money.
It's like he, to me needed that kind of that
kind of game, right. That could be something where maybe
we're missing that they're riding into this game high and
(59:25):
they do show up and play well against the Detroit
team that might be a little sluggish coming off their
bye week. But me and shiet I don't know that shit.
You can't bet on that. Models don't predict this stuff.
So I have this number a four and a half.
I have a ton of value right now on Detroit.
So unfortunately, like I'm hoping chat right, that is professional
money coming in. But I'm with the public now, like
(59:47):
there's still a couple of books that have threes out there.
We get off this call, I'm heading right down a
lank city making a bunch of bets on Detroit. So
I love this side? You love this side? Is this
a decision or now?
Speaker 1 (59:57):
I was going to say, this is my exact decision.
Speaker 2 (01:00:00):
The choice between the unthinkable and the impossible? Are you
heavy on what I say? Textecute executive decision?
Speaker 1 (01:00:09):
Are you were going to steal it?
Speaker 2 (01:00:11):
I was tempted to because it's still three. But I
know it's not our sponsor's book.
Speaker 1 (01:00:14):
But I actually thought you were going to go with
a different Simon says, because I know there's another.
Speaker 2 (01:00:18):
Game, you know what's coming up.
Speaker 1 (01:00:20):
Yeah, you know you feel pretty strongly about And I
just kept digging into this game, and there's there's like
in the same way that I like the predictability of
Harbaugh and the Chargers and sort of the physical nature
of what he's trying to do. I like what Dan
Campbell is turning this team into, which is a dominant
team at the line of scrimmage.
Speaker 2 (01:00:40):
Let me tell you something. I got goosebumps, gentlemen. I
love this team.
Speaker 1 (01:00:45):
And if you look at the Lions and what they
did when we wanted to get back on that bandwagon
I did against the Seahawks, I thought they were going
to try to physically dominate that team and get back
to the idea that they are playing football. Football is
a game of violence. They are going to control the
line of scrimmage right The line strength right now is
(01:01:08):
at that line of scrimmage. Offensively, defensively, they are amongst
the top five teams in the league because of their
ability to run, block, pass block, and rush the passer.
On the flip side. The Cowboys one of the worst
pass blocking teams in the league. So we've got a
matchup advantage for the Lions at the line of scrimmage
(01:01:32):
with their pass rushers, and they are literally the worst
defense in the league if you look at all the
advanced metrics from a run perspective. Sorry, I want to
be clear, worst rush defense in the league. So again,
you don't want to keep the ball in Jared Goff's hands.
I think they got a little bit sort of two
tricky sexy out of character with Jared Goff. Early in
(01:01:55):
the season. He was amazing eighteen eighteen against the Seahawks,
but he was like trying to overdo it. That was
a dominant physical performance. I think we could see the
same thing here against the Cowboys. Love it boom, all right,
Atlanta Carolina. Carolina is a six point dog. Why are
(01:02:17):
they doing this to us? Why? Why are the bookmakers
doing this to us? Why are they tempting us? Why
are the Panthers tempting us? Why do the Panthers play
great with Andy Dalton and make us believe that they
can be competitive and then have them get blown out
and then make them six point home dogs, forcing us
(01:02:39):
to consider the Panthers against an Atlanta team that we
have also liked to back this year. What are we
doing here, Simon? I don't mean that existentially, I just
mean with this game.
Speaker 2 (01:02:52):
Yeah, you know what we're supposed to do here, We're
supposed to take Carolina. But yeah, all that keeps going
off on my head chat is this fame and who's
just been shitting on me? And you? And my messages?
Anytime I tweet, too, usually have black people that are
just fucking brutal because it's like, this is my world, bitch,
I'm not gonna let you just shit on me constantly
my own world. But this guy's hilarious, Like, if you're
(01:03:12):
funny about it, I'm gonna let you keep it right,
keep it going, comment all my postshit on me because
it's funny. I'm with people. It is funny. Every week
he tweets his record on fading this Panthers team. Know
what that record is this year?
Speaker 1 (01:03:25):
Well it's probably four and one.
Speaker 2 (01:03:27):
It's four and one chat and I laugh. The kid's right.
Every week he comments to me, goes another week making
money fading this Panthers team, And I just laugh. It's like,
I have another week where I've lost money bettingless Panthers team.
So yeah, it's brutal. I don't know what to do.
We're supposed to take them. I have. This is a
good number of my model, all of it. It's like,
(01:03:49):
but the computer doesn't know. This is a team of losers.
They just stink. They're so bad. If Andy Dalton wasn't playing,
I would be all over this Falcons team here. But
you just there's gonna be a back door, right, That's
my whole thought with this number. It's like, how do
we not take this big number, especially this year where
they've been covering. So I got no read on this
one yet, Like I'm tortured. I want to take the Panthers.
(01:04:11):
I like the matchup for the Panthers. This Atlanta team
as good as they've been this year. They've stolen a
lot of wins at the end of games, right, They've
kind of been a coin flip team and all their games,
for the most part, are really close. So it's like,
how do we not back this Panthers team? So right
now I'm on the Panthers, But I don't want to
make this one of our official five. I just I'm
(01:04:32):
having a tough time with this one.
Speaker 1 (01:04:33):
Chet it's getting interesting. I don't know that we're going
to have an official five coming out of this.
Speaker 2 (01:04:38):
I feel like we're definitely I mean, I have like
seven games I.
Speaker 1 (01:04:42):
Like, so we're I think we've got seven that we like,
but we don't have five that we love.
Speaker 2 (01:04:46):
There's a big we'll get there. It's just yeah, right now,
we just know we have to do and we're both
fighting it because we're just we're looking our wounds right now.
It's tough to dive into these ugly home dogs and
you're you're freaking eating hot dogs and rice. Yeah, when
I'm saving money, that's where I try to save it.
That food.
Speaker 1 (01:05:03):
That's so funny because to me, I don't eat the
hot dogs anymore. But if I were on death row,
my last meal is going to be a Chicago dog.
I saw them.
Speaker 2 (01:05:16):
Nathan's or Hebrew Nationals are my favorite hot dogs.
Speaker 1 (01:05:19):
Now I need Vienna beef like hoppy seed bun, the
celery salt, the yellow mustard, the green relish, you name it,
that's it. Sunday Football teenya up here, Cincinnati at the
New York Giants. New York Giants plus three and a half?
You like the Giants on Sunday. I don't have a
strong opinion here. I'm going to tee you up. Like
(01:05:42):
I said. Joe Burrow's MVP Odds You and Evan called
this out a few weeks ago. They've dropped even more.
They're down to about fifteen to one third in EPA
as quarterback, second in QB rating behind Joe Flacco, of course,
first and touchdowns second and fewest interception with just two.
Tell me what you're thinking.
Speaker 2 (01:06:03):
Oh man, yeah, this is my Simon says, bet Chad.
When Simon says do it, we do what Sen says.
Speaker 1 (01:06:13):
They don't sound convinced, though.
Speaker 2 (01:06:17):
No I am. It's just I'm looking at the board here.
What's my favorite bet right now? And I'm making the
Simon says, just because I do think this could move.
It might get the four, like that's what I'm just
double checking it before I do give it out. But no,
I think I'm right. I think it's slanted towards slanted
towards this going down to three. So give me Giants
(01:06:38):
plus three and a half. It's really more about Cincinnati
and their defense. I just in what world can they
be getting this hook here? And I know the public's
gonna come in on them just because Joe Burrow has
played so well. But man, like this Giants front line,
they're gonna be able to get to Joe Burrow. I
think I think they're gonna be able to get pressure
and they're gonna be able to maybe turn him over. No, offensively,
(01:07:00):
Daniel Jones looks comfortable, he looks in rhythm. He doesn't
look like the guy we saw in the first two
weeks right coming back from major injury. So yeah, the
fact that I want to get this now is I
think if Neighbors gets cleared, this goes down to three. Right.
I think he does move a half a point. That's
all dominant, impressive he's been earlier in this year, So
I'll make this. Simon says, just to grab this now
(01:07:20):
just in case it does drop down to three by Thursday.
Speaker 1 (01:07:23):
I have no opinion on this game right now. I
think the Bengals are going to be terminally undervalued from
now until they all of a sudden are in the playoffs,
which I still think they could possibly do. Bengals are
one and four, they have a five point six percent
chance of making the playoffs. Historically, that's how often teams
(01:07:44):
who have been in this position had made the playoffs.
I have to believe that lou An Rumo is going
to get this defense right. A lot of new players,
but Burrow is playing so well right now, yeah, that
it's hard to bet against him.
Speaker 2 (01:08:00):
Is the problem.
Speaker 1 (01:08:01):
I will say. Giants pass coverage, we thought they'd be
trash top ten in the league right now. And their
defensive line. You got Dexter Lawrence playing top three as
a defensive lineman interior defensive lineman. So they're not as
bad as we think as we've been thinking they are.
Brian day Ball is scheming the heck out of these games.
(01:08:25):
As a coach, I'm as a coach, I am impressed
by Brian Dayball. I'm not saying I'm a coach saying
I've been impressed with Brian Dable. All Right, last game
on the board, we got to talk about the Buffalo
(01:08:49):
Bills visiting the Aaron Rodgers owned coached, quarterbacked, schemed GMed
New York Jets. And if I say that and I
sound facetious, it's because I cannot believe how this guy
is controlling this team in a way. This poor Robert
(01:09:09):
solid guy has had to find ways to thread the
needle on saying stuff critically about Aaron Rodgers in the
public without having to offend Aaron Rodgers in the locker
room and getting his high priced, glamorous quarterback mad at him.
All or not, the guy's been fired now. The mess
is all in Aaron Rodgers. It doesn't matter who's coaching
(01:09:31):
this team. He wants to do what he wants to do,
and it doesn't matter how bad it is for the team.
So I know what we got to do here.
Speaker 2 (01:09:40):
What are we doing?
Speaker 1 (01:09:40):
Chad gotta bet the New York Jets.
Speaker 2 (01:09:44):
Yeah, that's the only choice. And unfortunately we were really
hoping this would be up to plus three. I don't
think it's ever going to get there now, especially after
him getting fired. I think it was going to be
just professionals on this Jets team here now, I think
a little bit of public money will come in on
them as well. Also love the Jets like this back
(01:10:05):
to back weeks were really gonna wait till Monday night
for our picks, but this felt like this was gonna
be one of our five coming into this week. Historically,
Josh Allen doesn't match up well against his Chets team,
Like defensively, they know how to kind of attack him,
make him uncomfortable, and that was when he had Digs
and Gabe Davis guys he kind of relied on. Now
(01:10:26):
you saw last week right, he struggled to throwing the
ball downfield just because he doesn't really have a rhythm
or trust these receivers. I don't know what it's going on,
but it did not look right. Now only the city,
only people living in Buffalo or fans of Buffalo think
he didn't sustain a concussion. I think any of us.
I'm going back and rewatched it. It's just like, oh
my god.
Speaker 1 (01:10:47):
That was not a chest injury.
Speaker 2 (01:10:48):
No, whatever they're trying to spin, it's total bullshit. I
think it's the NFL classic. We got a guy playing
on Monday night. We can't have him missing this primetime game.
They're gonna make him. He's gonna be clear, he's gonna
be practicing. He's gonna play in this game. I have
no doubt we will see Josh Allen. So yeah, this
is a nice, nice spot to take the Jets in
(01:11:11):
a would we call this a bilo? I mean this
like this to me, this is like everything's kind of
going wrong right now for the Jets. Everything's kind of negative.
Already kind of love this spot, just the matchup wise.
Our only fear is Aaron Rodgers has not looked right
in weeks. I mean he's just been bad, Like he's
(01:11:32):
missing bad throws. When there's any bit of pressure, he
folds up rather than eluding it. So I get people's
hesitation here, but this is really about playing this number
in this divisional spot. This to me is closer to
a pick. We're getting about what a point and a
half two points of free value here, just because everyone's
so down on this Jets team, where I don't think
the Bills are that much better, Like this team has
(01:11:54):
major issues and major holes, things that can be exploited,
especially by this Jets team. So yeah, let's let's take
this jetsing to bounce back after firing their coach and
take the plus two and a half Jets.
Speaker 1 (01:12:05):
We are getting what we at the Action Network like
to call the dead cat bounce the team after the
coach has been fired. Story of a tweet from Awful
announcing that Matt Mitchell just put in the chat Jets
owner Woody Johnson friend say or Eric Mangini, former Jets coach,
predicted that Jets owner Woody Johnson would be pissed off
(01:12:30):
if the Jets lost in London because he used to
be the Ambassador to Saint James Court aka the ambassador
to the UK. Oh yeah, and he knew he was
going to have people who he was friendly with in
attendance and they were going to give him crap.
Speaker 2 (01:12:46):
I that's not true.
Speaker 1 (01:12:47):
Gets lost. So we could have predicted Robert slab and
gone got the idea of having to bet a Monday
night game and have it be in the contest, and
it'd be something I have to stay up late for.
I can't.
Speaker 2 (01:13:02):
You just did it with Derek Carr. I went to
bed early.
Speaker 1 (01:13:05):
I went to bed because I just couldn't deal. I
took the melatonin and I'm like, I'm done. I am
not not doing this to myself. I gotta get off
to a good start this week. All right. Well that's
where we're at. Before I get into the final bit,
I do want to recap a little bit because I
don't want people to think we've missed anything. EXAC decision
(01:13:25):
was Detroit. I'm taking the minus three. It's available widely.
Simon says, Giants plus three and a half. Other games
that we talked about that we started to feel strongly
about to narrow down Washington six and a half. We
think we're going to get some pushback on that from
sharp calls. New England plus seven. We're waiting for more
(01:13:47):
intel on Indie and Tennessee. We want to bet Indie,
but it feels like a trap. Green Bay minus five,
Tampa minus two and a half, Chargers minus three, Jesus Simon,
Detroit minus three and a half, Carolina plus six. We
got nine freaking home dogs, and we got six different
games here that are favorites. What are we doing.
Speaker 2 (01:14:09):
It's gonna come back around. We said it last week
when we fell into the trap. Anyway, we said the
public was going to finally have a good week. Yeah,
what do we do anyway, we still bet a bunch
of dogs, so I'm trying to find the fine balance,
cheed fine balance.
Speaker 1 (01:14:20):
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