The Favorites - NFL Week 7 Betting Preview

A Super Bowl rematch is in store this weekend. Can the San Francisco 49ers get their revenge on the Kansas City Chiefs? Can the Detroit Lions bring down the red hot Minnesota Vikings? And how impactful is Amari Cooper's trade to Buffalo? Action Network NFL betting experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter discuss all this and more as they survey every game on the board and discuss their top betting matchups.

We also get a recap of Week 6 in the free Favorites Podcast $100,000 Pro Football Pick 'Em Contest, which is STILL available for sign-up at favorites.actionnetwork.com

And be sure to keep your ears peeled for our Simon Says and Executive Decision picks of the week! #Volume #herd

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:08):
Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast presented by Bett three
sixty five. We are part of the Volume podcast Network.
I am Chad Millman of the Action Network. Today is
our Tuesday, Week seven episode. We will break down the
entire slate of NFL games. We will discuss our exec
decision and our Simon says and start to narrow down

(00:31):
the options for a five phaves to put into the
Favorites podcast one hundred thousand dollars Pro Football Pick Them contest.
We went two and three this past week, and considering
how the Favorites did, how Road Favorites did going nine
to oh after the Bills won last night and after

(00:54):
the Bengals won on Sunday night, those are classic spots
for Simon and I to fade the fact we went
two and three. I am gonna take that because we
had the full experience of life betting games this weekend.
It was like parenting, working, eating, drinking, the roller coaster

(01:16):
of everything that we choose to do on a daily basis,
and we're gonna do it all again this week live
from our Tommy John Home studios. I'm joined as always
by my co host, my companion, Mike and Padre might
be a professional better. Simon Hunter Ero, Simon, Hello, Chad.

Speaker 2 (01:34):
Yeah, it's what the best Sunday ever for the betting
in public, and capped off by our brutal loss for
me in that Giants game. And then last night. I
don't know if you watched that game, because I know
you're traveling. That was the worst football game I've watched
in years. I mean, the refs made it unwatchable, the miskicks,

(01:55):
all of it, even the stupid roughing the passer penalty
was just brutal. And Aaron Rodgers, It's just it's everything.
Chad hates these referees controlling these games. I'm with you.
I try to hold firm because to me there is
no such thing as bad football because I just love
it so much. But fucking had was at some bad football.

Speaker 1 (02:12):
Last night, you know, Simon, I'm so glad you said that.
I was watching the game on my flight last night,
and it's excruciating. And you watch these games over the
course of the weekend and it feels like, anecdotally, this
is my judgment, what is it twenty thirty percent? Maybe

(02:34):
more of big plays are either negated or impacted by
penalties like last night, the Jets had a long throw
to Garrett Wilson down the middle of the field. They
called PI and they also called like illegal formation. And

(02:55):
these illegal formation penalties are ruining the game. They truly are,
because it is impossible to watch. You see the flag
go up as soon as the ball is snapped. You
know it's a dead play. You know it's not an
off side. So you know somebody didn't line up with
their helmet on the midline. You know somebody lined up
uncovered on the line. They got to figure this out

(03:16):
on the competition committee. I'm serious. I'm not talking about
it as a better I'm talking about it as a fan.
Like there's no rhythm to these games. There's no predictability.
Every good play gets called back because of something stupid.
And I know the players should understand how to line up.
The coaches should coach these guys to know where to be.
But clearly something is missing, and I don't understand the

(03:37):
value of some of these plays. You're not getting that
much of an edge if you're Juwan Taylor and you're
lining up in the backfield. That's one thing. If you're
lining up with nobody covering you. As a receiver. You're
three feet off the line of scrimmage. That is impacting
nothing like some of these rules. It is infuriating to
watch these games. I was so glad to miss so

(03:57):
much of that game last night.

Speaker 2 (04:00):
Yeah, And I said to my buddy I was watching
the game. I was like, if this is one PM,
it doesn't matter. Sure call the game as tight as
you possibly can. Say, prime time game, you can call
holding penalty on every single snap. We always talk about
it all the time. Do you really need to call
it on every important third down or every time a
touchdown scored. It's like, okay, it's it just was a
brutal product. Like you said, it's you know, Goodell made

(04:23):
a call. Like there's just there's no way they're gonna
let this continue where you know, we saw a couple
of weeks ago on the Thursday and night games there's
too much referees. The same happened last night. It's just
these primetime games. We can't let the stars of the
show be their refs. It needs to be the players.

Speaker 1 (04:38):
Twenty two penalties last night. You mentioned Aaron Rodgers, you
mentioned the roughing the passer. Even Rogers said postgame last night,
those were those weren't roughing the passers on him?

Speaker 2 (04:48):
Yeah, because it was. It was terrible.

Speaker 1 (04:49):
It was terrible. So anyways, Yeah, like last night, I
felt like we were cursed by the history of the Meadowlands.
We had a ch ants with the Giants to get
that cover. Chase Brown fumbles, the ball goes through a
Giant defender's hands as he's trying to recover it. Last night,
Josh Allen by the goal line about going to score

(05:13):
on another drive, he fumbles, the ball goes through with
Jets defenders hands as he tries to recover it. Like
just critical critical, Meadowlands misbounces for us on both the
Bengals and Giants, and the Jets and the Bills both
end up being losers for us feel lucky to have
escaped with a two and three week. In a moment,

(05:35):
we'll recap the results of week six. In our contents,
we'll announce the winner of our big weekly cash prize.
If you haven't yet, be sure to sign up for
the Free Favorites Podcast one hundred thousand dollars Pro Football
Pick Them contest presented by bet three six five Just
visit Favorites dot Actionnetwork dot Com as a reminder of
the Favorites podcast is presented by Bet three six five

(05:56):
and now new Bet three six five. Customers get two
hundred bonus bets when you bet five dollars sign up
using promo code Favorites deposit ten dollars in place a
bet for five dollars to get two hundred dollars and
bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spread totals,
player props, futures, and more witever the moment, It's never
ordinary at Bet three sixty five. Must be twenty one

(06:17):
or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana,
North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or eighteen and
older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler
or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa. Terms conditions
restrictions supply all right. Congrats to Week six first place

(06:38):
winner Z four oh one. We actually had nine entries
go five and zero get within two yards of the
Monday night football tiebreaker, but only two entries nailed the
tiebreaker exactly because Z fourh one submitted first. Z takes
home a two thousand dollars prize. Well done. As always,

(07:01):
Matt Mitchell has selected his Producer's Cup award for the
entry that finished dead last in the contest.

Speaker 2 (07:07):
Have you about the loads and lose? He's a Louis
about he still kids on try.

Speaker 1 (07:19):
This week's Producer's Cup goes to John Patterson. Congrats on
your oh and five week and missing the tiebreaker by
two one hundred and ninety four yards. John Patterson, please
email Matt Mitchell at podcasts at actionnetwork dot com to
claim your prize. All right, I think we got to

(07:39):
change the contest tiebreaker to number of penalty yards and
these in these Monday night games because it's just getting ridiculous.
Let's get into it. First game up Thursday night football.
We got a Barne Berner Denver Broncos visiting the New
Orleans Saints Simon last college football season. If we had

(08:00):
playing Spencer Rattler, it might have been like the eighth
game we might be interested in. Instead, we get it
in prime time. And this line has moved quite a
bit since it opened. It it had already moved from
New Orleans like I think two to two and a
half to one. When we knew it was going to

(08:23):
be rattler. Now it's all of a sudden it moved
to New Orleans plus two Like that seems like a
ridiculous move to me. Bo Nicks as a road favorite,
we already felt bad that he was going to be
a home favorite of a field goal. Give me your take.

Speaker 2 (08:41):
Care Oovers Spencer, Chad, what a game to get you
fired up? A good old Bo Spencer Bowl game. Seriously,
it's gross, but you just nailed it right. We're supposed
to take the Saints here, especially off all this line movement,
and I think it could because a Lave is out
as well. You know, we'll see who the healthy receivers

(09:02):
are going to be for the Saints team all. They
have a lot of injured guys right now, so that's
what the movement's based off of. Because of that, I'm
going Broncos. I know it's tough. I can't believe I'm
doing it, but you know, I like to take the
favorites on Thursday Night. I mean I talk all the time.
There's just there's a reason that the favorites historically this
is the spot you want to take them. And this

(09:25):
week I really want to be on the home Dogs year,
it's just tough for me to get there. Like the injuries,
we talked about how they're going to catch up for
the Saints team, how do they not catch up to
a team that now has their number one, number two
receiver out, their best offensive lineman's out, and they're starting
quarterbacks out. So on the flip side, Denver, they've kind

(09:45):
of for the most part, escaped this injury bug. And
I know they looked bad last week, but I was
impressed by bow Knicks coming back in that game like
the kid. The kid has a never die attitude, turned
that into a ball game last week where most rookie
qbs kind of go well as me, me and pack
it in. And we did not see that last week
for Bonnick. So I bet this when it was Broncos

(10:05):
minus one, I'd still take it here at minus two.
Once across is two and a half, though, that's when
I think the value really shifts to the Saints team.
So I think if you want to take the Broncos here,
I think there's still value on this number. It's just
too much going on with this Saints team that really
back down right now. I don't I if I have
a clear pitcher that a lobby is playing. Maybe I'll

(10:26):
change my tune here, But having a rookie quarterback now
with a bang up offensive line, with his number three,
number four receiver being his number ones, that to me
is just too much for Spencer Ratler to overcome.

Speaker 1 (10:37):
Yeah, well, the injuries are significant. My favorite thing about
Bonix this year, you know, I love the relationship that
he's building with Sean Payton yea. And that fight that
they got into in the middle of the game before
the week before the Chargers and at the postgame press

(10:58):
conferencer during the week. I can't remem but what it was.
Someone asks both of them about it, and Sean Payton
is giving sort of a thoughtful answer of bon Nicks
as a rookie quarterback and he's learning, and bo Nicks
gets the question and his answer is, oh, he just
said I love you and I just said I love
you back. Like the guy clearly has a great attitude.

(11:20):
He is clearly fearless when it comes to this stuff.
And as you noted, and he's done this multiple times
now this season where his team is out of it,
and go back to Week one against the Seahawks, like
he kept grinding kept trying to learn, kept trying to
make the red passes, and we see it. The Broncos
are not pulling any punches. They are not giving him

(11:42):
a rookie playbook. That first pass in the game against
the Chargers, it was an interception, but they're going down
the field like Sean Payton is not pulling any punches here.
Very impressive. I don't mind what you're saying. I don't
want to bet it. I actually bet the under in
this game. That's the first thing I did. I got
it at thirty seven and a half. I think I
will not touch a side in this game. I'm sick

(12:05):
of refs ruining my primetime games. Pats versus Jacks, Jags
are five and a half point favorites. This is the
London game. So like the bad news for the Jags,
there is real chaos on this team. Our guy Doug Peterson,
who we love, he's on his last legs here. Trevor

(12:25):
Lawrence is regressing. A player on defense came out and
said after the Bears game that they basically gave up
in that game, which Doug Peterson refuted. The good news
favorites excel in the international games with the historically dominant
Caleb Williams leading the Bears this past weekend. There are

(12:49):
now thirty six to ten to one straight up, thirty
two and fifteen against the spread. That's the favorites. What
do you think here?

Speaker 2 (12:59):
Just kind of going back to what he did last week?
I mean, Evan Gave has had an amazing stat Before
last week, rookie quarterbacks were zero to five against the
spread in this exact spot playing international games for those
quarterbacks had lost by fourteen plus. And you know what
we saw last week was Williams. He's different. I mean
we talked about we never seen a rookie QB throw

(13:20):
for four touchdowns in an international game like that's.

Speaker 1 (13:23):
And run for a touchdown and run for five touchdowns
in the game. Let's just be clear it's five touchdowns
in the game.

Speaker 2 (13:28):
Yeah, it's impressive. There's a reason this spreads that big though,
because people were asking shouldn't we take Drake May? The
Jags are terrible, they shouldn't be respected this much is
too much of a movement. I think it's just based
off those statistics where favorites usually cover, they usually do
well in London, and then you mixing rookie quarterbacks tend
to struggle in this exact spot. So you're right, Doug

(13:52):
Peterson loses this game, he's guaranteed to be fired. I mean,
this is a guaranteed fired spot for Doug Peterson. And
as an Eagles fan, I've been hearing it is that
Eagles Nick Foles Doug Peterson flukia super Bowl ever in
NFL history. It's it's hard to debate it now there
were this many years later. It's like, it is pretty

(14:13):
crazy think back that this man was able to motivate
that team. And you know, I still think Doug's a
good coach. It's just things are not bouncing their way
for this Jaguars team. Like everything that could go wrong
keeps going wrong for them, even in against your Bears team,
Like opening drive, they get the ball back, he throws
a pass in the second half, the guy fumbled it.
You guys go right down the field, scored and a touchdown.

(14:34):
I was just it just everything keeps going wrong for
this team. So thank god, we can't put this one
in contest, but I'll bet it right now it's under
six to five and a half. I'll take that number,
but with very little confidence in my betting this Jaguars team.

Speaker 1 (14:49):
Yeah, it's it's a really tough spot for Drake May
and terrible spot. It is also a Jaguars team. Like
you said, Doug Peterson's coaching for his life here and
he might be at a point where he's just like
freaking fire me. Let me get back to the south,
to South Jersey, get on the beach, go play some pool,
have some beers. Like this is just not what I

(15:11):
was expecting at all. And the Jaguars owners said before
the season, this is the best roster they've ever had,
like they had a very high expectation. So all of
a sudden, Trevor Lawrence and what will be I think
year four or five will now be going on to
his third new head coach and have an albatross of

(15:33):
a massive deal hanging over the entire franchise. And by
the way, they've signed a lot of guys to big deals,
not just Trevor Lawrence. They got josh Heinz Allen too,
So they have committed a lot of money to guys
who are not getting it done. Ugly, ugly, ugly. Thank god,
we can't put it in the contest. Miami at Indianapolis,

(15:56):
the Indianapolis Colts are three and a half point favorite.
Let me set a scene for you. Okay, So yesterday
I'm flying. I was working on my notes for the show.
Today I got to this game. I could not think
of who the quarterback was for the Miami Dolphins. I
had to look it up. I typed in Miami Dolphins

(16:17):
starting quarterback. The only name that came up was Tua. Finally,
I looked at the Dolphins depth chart and I got
to Skyler Thompson and Tyler Huntley. That's when I finally
figured out who the quarterback was. So at this point,
I don't want to touch this game because I think

(16:37):
Anthony Richardson is going to play, at least that's what
they're saying he's expected to start. Is he a three
and a half point favorite against literally anyone lining up
behind center for the Dolphins.

Speaker 2 (16:52):
Yeah, you've already seen a couple of books move this
down to three for your exact reasoning. It's just you're
getting the hook. You know, we all know Miami has
just lost right now, and I agree with a lot
of people that you know, they could be well another
one of those teams that they could be firing their
coach in a couple of weeks because it's just all
so bad for this team, and it can it can

(17:12):
get away from them pretty quick. But I'm with you here, Chad.
It's it feels like it's too many points for Richardson,
who hasn't played in a game in what three four weeks.
You know, despite what we want to think about Miami,
they still have a great run blocking scheme, Like they
can still run the ball pretty damn well. So we've
seen this Colts defense. I'm still embarrassed that I thought

(17:35):
it was dan Quinn when it was Gus Bradley. Like
I confused these middle aged, older white men, and I
thought Gus Bradley was a coach with Washington and Dan
Quinn was the DC of the Colts. I'm sorry for
besmirching his good name, because Gus Bradley's terrible right now.
This Colts defense is terrib bull. They're so bad in
so many different ways. So I'm with you, Chad. If

(17:57):
I had to pick this game, I'll take the three
and a half on Miami. But it's it's such a small
bet because I have no real read on this game
at all.

Speaker 1 (18:05):
It's just it's a team that's completely lost its mojo,
its personality. We all not too we talk about we
don't think he's that good of a quarterback. He's a
product of the system. He's gotten the guaranteed money. But
there is something to be said for being so good
within the system. He was clearly the ignition for getting

(18:29):
a Tyreek Hill, getting a jail and Waddle get you know,
Divonne h Chain. Like the way they are able to
move the ball when he is the quarterback, it's just
decidedly different. I think it's taking some of the mojo
from Mike McDaniel too.

Speaker 2 (18:42):
Like it's weird though, why would I get Like you
want to protect your first round pick and you're the
guy you took so early with Anthony Richardson, But the
way flack Goo has been playing, I feel like he
has earned the starting role and they're about to go
into this shit like this is literally the toughest part
of the season coming up. Okay, they get Miami, no problem,

(19:03):
then they go at Houston at Minnesota, home versus Buffalo
at the Jets, and then home versus Detroit, Like that
is just an insane stretch that in whose mind is
Anthony Richardson Get you through that, Like, I just think
it's really funny they're going back to him where you're
three and three right now, I could see Flacco still

(19:23):
a couple of those games, and you could still at
the end of it be have a winning record with
Anthony Richardson. I just don't have that type of faith,
So I think this has got to be coming from ownership.
I just have no other reason why they'd be then
benched Joe Flacco right now?

Speaker 1 (19:35):
Yeah, well that was gonna be. My question is I
think Shane Steichen's a really good coach, me too, And
you do wonder all right, after two years. One year,
you weren't with Anthony Richardson. The second year, he's in
and out, in and out. Who knows if he'll stay
healthy the rest of the year, But he's clearly proven
the ability to win as a coach when he had
Gardner Minshew and Joe Flacco, right and if this team

(19:59):
tanks over the next what is it eleven games? Is
he going to be blamed? Is all of a sudden
he fired? Have they pulled the cord too soon? He's
a really good coach, like nobody should be thinking about
getting rid of him. But if it's another terrible year.
And ersay is like, I don't know what to do here,

(20:22):
but I want to stick with Anthony Richardson. We invested
too much in him. I got to get rid of
the coach. What happens here, Like, let's play this out
for a minute.

Speaker 2 (20:29):
You don't think so, No, I can't see him getting
fired after this year. But I agree with you. It
feels like he has a little bit tired Anthony Richson
at this point. So maybe that is part of the problem.

Speaker 1 (20:41):
The coaches just want to win, man, exactly. They just
want to win with the players they can trust. That's it.
End of the day. Seattle at Atlanta, we had a
conversation about this one on Sunday night. It's been bouncing
around between two and a half and three since we
first discussed it. I've come to the conclusion I feel

(21:02):
like you like Atlanta here, and I'm really curious what
you're power rating is on this game.

Speaker 2 (21:10):
Yeah, I just like the number. So I have this
game with three. It's two and a half to me.
That's where the value is Atlanta. You know, the view
of this Atlanta team is they're not as good as
their record states. But I don't think they're as bad
as people perceive they are, right. I think offensively, there's
a lot to like there. Right they have a two

(21:31):
headed monster in the running backfield, and we've seen Pitses
look better throughout the season at tight end, And we
don't really have questions about London. Like to me, they're
pretty solid about what they are. On the flip side, Seattle,
their defense, which you know they brought in the head
coach is supposed to fix it. Between all the injuries
they've had now to that defense as well, they're terrible.
I mean we've had multiple weeks now this Seattle defense

(21:54):
just being dominated, not just against the run, but through
the air as well. Like they just have no strength
right now. And that to me is why I don't
really understand this number. It's like, all right, under a
field goal, you're giving me the better team at home.
I'll be the sucker. I'll take that number. If this
was number of three and a half, I could be
talking in Seattle, just because they do have such a
good offense with Gino and those weapons on the outside.

(22:16):
But you know, we've seen it for a couple of
weeks now. This Seattle team just isn't that good And
it feels like, you know, people overreacted to it, you know,
them being three and oh, it's the same thing we
talked about the Saints. Me and you were not buying
the Saints at all and if they start off too
and oh, and it threw us off the set, like
we felt we fell into the trap of yeah, the
Saints team's not as bad as puper received. It's like, no,

(22:38):
they're pretty bad. And then they've had bad injury luck.
Same goes for the Seattle team. They've had some really
bad injury luck to their defense. So people betting on
this game, they're betting on this being a shootout. They
like Seattle left the three. I talk a couple of
professionals who like Seattle at the three. So that's why
this number is back down to two and a half.
And I'll just take the sucker bet and the home
favorite under a field goal. And this in the team,

(23:00):
it's it's tough to think that they're going to keep
covering all these games in a row, but it's just
an undervalued team right now to the sports books.

Speaker 1 (23:07):
It doesn't feel like a sucker's bet to me. So
the reason I asked you you're power rating earlier instead
of sort of going through all the research first. Is
because I was sitting in the airport, you know, the
the at the gate yesterday doing all my research and
stop clicking through my tabs and all that kind of stuff.

(23:30):
And the Seattle team is middling at everything. Right. They're
middle of the pack in nearly every defensive statistic, whether
it's basic or advanced, except they are last in rushing
yards for play allowed. Atlanta's defense isn't all that special either.

Speaker 2 (23:54):
No, but they get no pressure. I mean they have a.

Speaker 1 (23:58):
Pass rush and they're not they're.

Speaker 2 (24:01):
Safeties, we'll give them that. They've really not.

Speaker 1 (24:03):
Very good and like neither are very good in red
zone touchdown percentage allowed. They're pretty low in the in
the NFL. Atlanta's just much much better offensively, top ten
in several categories where Seattle is middle of the pack.
So at the end of my research, I was like, Okay,
I think I lean Atlanta two and a half.

Speaker 2 (24:21):
Yeah.

Speaker 1 (24:21):
I just can't shake that they let everyone stay in
the game, Like even the Panthers were in it until
they got in their own way and they panthered, you
know what I mean? Like that the Falcons. Every game
they play seems to barely go in their direction.

Speaker 2 (24:38):
Yeah, we talked about coming to that game. Why we
like the Panthers is they can't help but at playing
close games they have. Yeah, they come into the game.
Last week they had three wins, one by one point,
the second by two points, and then the last one
was an overtime, fluky six point walk off win against
the Bucks. So I'm with you, like, there's a reason
to be hesitant about this one. There's a reason this
number is under three. But I'd just take it across

(25:01):
that key number. That's why I'm and I'm just like you,
That's why I end up taking a lane here where
it's like, yeah, not a game. I'm maybe I'll love
it more come Thursday, once I look into it more
about Raiseter City. Right now, it's just a game, I bet,
simply just because I think the number is half a
point of value.

Speaker 1 (25:13):
We're just playing the number. Yes, what I'm excited about
for us right now, we have not wallowed in the
idea that road favorites rent and unprecedented nine and ero,
and that that normally creators our confidence because we like
to play against road favorites we're just going through it.
We're going through our numbers, we're going through our process,

(25:34):
we're going through the research. I feel no jitters right now.

Speaker 2 (25:38):
I like it because I think it's going to give
us an extra point on almost every home dog we
like this week. Honestly like that's the books are happy
to overreact to it because they know Joe Public the
sucker they are. They are fat, their pockets are fat
right now. They're happy to come in once again and
do a bunch of road favorite parlays, teasers, straight up
whatever they can get on these lines. So historically this

(26:01):
should be a good week for us. We should be
getting to free points on different home dolls this week.
I think people are going to see this week there's
a couple that really jump out that live up to this.

Speaker 1 (26:10):
I want you to remember that we cannot lose focus.
That home dogs are still going to be a side
we tend to like. And I just want to reiterate
flowers for you, Simon Hunter. Sunday morning, we're putting our
picks in. What did you say, chalk is due? This
feels like a chalky week. Thank god we did that,

(26:34):
Otherwise we could have been staring at an zero to
five week Houston at green Bay. Green Bay is a
three point favorite. So I think on Sunday Night you
like the Texans, and I persuaded you that two and
a half the Packers were the play, and now that
it's a three and I've done a little more research,

(26:55):
I think I lean Texans. To me, this is another
sort of number play two and a half. I probably
like the Packers at three. Maybe I'm neutral, maybe lean
Texans at that number, But to me, Joe Mixon makes
a huge difference for this Texans team and changes the
calculus I think in a lot of the home roads

(27:16):
splits that we see from CJ. Stroud.

Speaker 2 (27:20):
Yeah, this is a tough one though, Like we said
Sunday night, I can see why people are split on
this one. I actually have this at one and a
half green Bay, so I actually do have a lot
of respect for this team model wise in Houston, and
apparently I think they have a good number as well.
So I'm with you. As soon as I went to three,
I took a couple bites of that three on Houston
plus three. It's just that to me was good value.

(27:44):
A couple of books an hour down to two and
a half on Houston. That feels right like, if they
want to get a decent amount of action on Green Bay,
they'll keep it there. They'll bump it back up to three.
Professionals will come back in. That's how they'll get a
nice even split probably on this number here or so early. Though,
I still like Houston, especially if we can get three

(28:04):
and a half in contest. If this does get bet up,
we are getting a three and a half number with
CJ here. I like that number, like, that's a really
good number in this spot where two equally matched teams,
and we talked to that home field just isn't what
it used to be. Like you do lose half a
point to a point that back in the day used
to just be a straight minus three across the board.
Now it's just not the way it is anymore. So

(28:27):
I like Houston. Will this end up being one of
our five? I think Chad just said it's all ad
dictated about what the number is gonna be, especially in
the contest, so you can still get the threes out there,
I'd grab that now. I can just see this coming
down to two and a half for the rest of
the week.

Speaker 1 (28:41):
If we had Green Bay two and a half. Would
you put that in the contest? Oh?

Speaker 2 (28:49):
Man, it depends what else we have in there, just
because like it's hard if I if I'm heavily bet
on Houston, I couldn't do it because then it's just
gonna be like an awful experience trying to root against
my own and bet you know what I mean.

Speaker 1 (29:01):
No, I get it, I yet. And that also plays
into it when we make some of these picks, like oh,
that's we've made. We really don't want to be on
opposite sides when all of a sudden we're in the contest.
All right, you just mentioned home dogs. It's the theme
of the week. We haven't had many home dogs to
talk about yet, mostly home favorites. Now we got Cincinnati

(29:21):
a Cleveland. Cleveland's a five and a half point home dog.
I want to say, like we throw out any home
division dog stats here. Evan had this great stat about
Deshaun Watson. JaMarcus Russell lost. He was negative sixty five

(29:43):
point eight total EPA on dropbacks in weeks one through
six in two thousand and nine, since at least two
thousand before. It was the record low since at least
two thousand before. Deshaun Watson, who is negative sixty six
point two this season, seeing his believing here. Deshaun Watson

(30:10):
of twenty nineteen is just not coming back. And we
said it last week, we can say it again this week.
He is a bad quarterback who either doesn't have the
arm to throw the throws, to make the throws that
he wants to make, or that the Browns coaches want
to call, doesn't have the confidence. And we saw it
last week, like the Eagles got any pressure, his eyes

(30:32):
were down and he was going. It's just such a
marked difference. You watch a guy even like Josh Allen
last night, Joe Burrow on Sunday Night, it's just like
these guys they have such pocket presence and pocket awareness
that Deshaun Watson does not have right now. Super hard
to bet on the Browns at five and a half,

(30:54):
even though in my notes I wrote, is this number
too big right now? Is it too tempting to back
a road public fave? Like I don't think we want
to do that, So it's really the Browns are nothing here.

Speaker 2 (31:15):
Honestly, this is almost my simon says bet, but I
do think we'll be able to get a six, So
I'm not gonna do it yet. This might have been
our big balls, bet Chat, I'm not gonna let us
off the hook that easy. But you have to take
Cleveland this spot. I know this is this is such
a good number. Cincinnati fucking sucks, Like they are so
lucky that they won that Giants game. They got outplayed

(31:36):
by the Giants and almost every way they had a
fluky Joe Burrow ran the ball forty yards touchdown and
they did nothing until the final two minutes of that game.
Like they're just a bad team in Cincinnati. And the
biggest problem right now with Watson and this Cleveland team
is Filds on the ball too long and he just
takes really bad sacks. Yeah, I don't know how big

(31:57):
of a problem it's gonna be against Cincinnati team that
has one really good pass rusher and that's about it.
Like there's ways they can counter this Cincinnati team. And defensively, actually,
like this matchup for Cleveland's defense against this Bengals team,
A lot of what Jim Schwartz wants to do defensively
is gonna give Joe Burrow a problem. So, yeah, this
is a gross one, but this is probably gonna end

(32:19):
up as one of our five. Especially if this gets
up to six six and a half in our contest.
It's like there's gonna be too much movement on this
line not to take it, and especially where no one's left. Right,
the boat is totally empty. On Brown's betters, there is
no one left. So I haven't been to AC yet.
I'll probably get down there tonight or tomorrow. I already

(32:41):
can guarantee when I talk to the book makers, this
is gonna be the number one bet team. Te is
money line, all of it, the Cincinnati team. Everyone is
just going to be all in on them after that
big Sunday night win.

Speaker 1 (32:54):
Eighty one percent are the tickets already on. That's Cincinnati
with the money. It's early in the week, so you're
not seeing a ton of wise guy money yet to
really have that be a factor. But I knew when
I saw this, and I was going through it yesterday
sitting in the freaking Detroit airport with my connection that.

Speaker 2 (33:16):
Was before though you agree, right, it should be like I.

Speaker 1 (33:19):
Agree like the number, like well, it's like the it's
the perfect example of what you just said, which is
we're going to get a point of value on all
these home dogs because the public won so emphatically last
week and Cincinnati is one of those teams, right, like

(33:40):
Cincinnati beating up on the Giants. They were a massive
public favorite. And even though they looked terrible, even though
the only play they made was Joe Burrow running and
then Joe Burry to Josebash Yoshivas, at the.

Speaker 2 (33:54):
End of the day, that pass incredible.

Speaker 1 (33:56):
That pass was sick, right, but it's a great example
of Joe Burrow Wouldborough can do and Deshaun Watson can't
get out of the pocket and still be aware of
what's happening downfield. I agree with you. The number is
just too big. I hate that we're gonna want to
do it. It's going to be a late entry because
we want this number to get as big as possible,
and Sunday morning, it's just going to go up, is
the thing that's that's really the challenge. We got to

(34:19):
wait and wait and wait. But Jesus Christ, just to
just to put a finer point on it, that Browns
rush is still top five. And we saw how badly
that offensive line for the Bengals performed against the Giants.
Pass rush that was missing Thibodeaux like there's there's some

(34:39):
issues here, so yeah, we're there. We're there. So I mean,
only one thing can make me comfortable betting on the
Cleveland Browns. That's right, it is my Tommy John underwear.
I mentioned at the top of the show that we
are coming to you live from our Tommy j On

(35:00):
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(35:23):
be better. You can be so much better. You can
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Tommy John dot com slash favorites. Save twenty five percent
at Tommy John dot com slash favorites. All right, Eagles

(35:46):
visiting the Giants. This line open to three and a half.
It's now down to three. So someone's been betting on
the Giants here. You know. Somehow the Giants offered an
inspiring performance and a devastating, winnable loss to the Bengals
at home. They never felt like they were out of
it until that throw to Josevash. Meanwhile, the Eagles looked

(36:09):
wholly uninspiring in a losable win to one of the
worst quarterbacks in the league, a win that was so
bad the coach left the field fighting with fans.

Speaker 2 (36:24):
Yeah, I mean it's you're speechless, I am, because again
I'm trying to hold it back because I almost went
off on Sunday night where it's like, you fucking beat
the Browns by four points, and then your bad mouth
fans who spent a lot of money to go watch
that dog shit performance, and then you bring your kids
to the press conference, Like if I was the owner,

(36:47):
I would have fired him right then and there you
bringing your kids to a press conference when you beat
the Browns by four What other team in the NFL
does that? Like it's a joke that you will never
catch another coach who barely beats a team that brings
us kids press conference when they're gonna ask you serious
questions and your deflection is it's all fun, Like how
much fun we're having When my kids ever I just

(37:08):
I hated Tierna company the year. Dude. Now I'm just like,
I want us to lose. Guy, I want to be fired.
I just can't stand this guy running this team. It's
just Lane Johnson said it best. The offense is constipated
like something's wrong where you know. You watch the Lions.
The Lions, they they dink and dunk their way down
the field and then a couple big plays here and

(37:28):
there that are just so impressive. That's what the Eagles
should be. Instead, the Eagles are three and out, six
and out, five and out, six and out, one big
play to a J. Brown for a touchdown, three and out,
three and out, one big play to Vante Smith for
a touchdown, and that's how they won that game, like
two fluky big plays. Chad so wanted to fade these

(37:50):
guys really hard. Unfortunately, the model has us at three.
So it's like, shit, if this gets a two and
a half, now, I'm gonna have to bet the Eagles
because that's where the value is going to be. So
if you grabbed the three and a half now and
the Giants, I honestly feel shockingly I feel more comfortable
taking that right now. But if this gets down to
two and a half. I'll probably end up on the

(38:11):
Eagles in this spot. But yeah, this this Eagles team
has some major problems, and I don't know this is
this feels like a nice time for the Giants team
to catch them. But the fear here right now is,
you know, if this turns into a back and forth shootout,
they don't have the guns right now with Daniel Jones
on this Giants team. So maybe we'll have better clearance

(38:32):
once we know Neighbors is back. That whole thing, too,
is bizarre. I don't know if you're right about the
neighbors thing. He apparently went to like a Travis Scott
concert on Wednesday or Friday last week and then didn't
play in the game because he still has got concussion issues.
I feel like glad noises and flashing lights at a
rap concert is not great for concussions. So that's a
whole nother bizarre scenario going on to New York right now.

Speaker 1 (38:55):
Not great for concussions. Not great when you like to
be asleep by nine o'clock like me. What's interesting about
the Sirianni thing? And I was in the uber yesterday
on the way to the airport, and the driver had
Dan Patrick on and he had Ross Tucker on, who
we've had on the show, and Ross Tucker's a Philly guy,
and Tucker was like, I like, he's like my buddies

(39:18):
would react the same way everyone in Philly would react
the same way that Nick Sirianni is. And he also
said that he heard guys like Brandon Graham were telling
Sirianni to be more vocal and to be more like
he was in twenty twenty two and to let his
sort of emotions out a little bit. So he might
have gotten some encouragement from the players to act like that.

Speaker 2 (39:38):
No, that's smart. Listen to the players.

Speaker 1 (39:41):
Ah A Detroit at Minnesota. This one's moving, brother moving.

Speaker 2 (39:48):
Yeah.

Speaker 1 (39:49):
From the vikings minus one to minus two to minus
two and a half, Oh my god, listen. I've been like, instinctively,
i want to be on the on the Lions here,
and I'm looking for reasons to sell the vikings. It
might just be we're getting to the number right, like
teams that are covering by five points per game historically

(40:16):
in the games going forward forty five percent against the spread,
so that is the vikings. Obviously, we have fears with
the Lions because of Aden Hutchinson. But there's to me,
that's the only reason this line is moving, and all
of a sudden it's moved to point and a half.
We talked about this on Sunday night. Aden Hutchinson, brilliant

(40:39):
DPOY candidate, probably would have won it. Is that a
point and a half? Like JJ Watt is at his
most fierce, was one point and that's a lot Miles
Garrett one point last year. Aden Hutchinson a point and
a half? Is that why this line is moving?

Speaker 2 (40:57):
Yeah, that's fair too, where like I only moved to
half a point, but I'm really really in tough moving
points where it's got to be the quarterback for me
to really start moving in a lot. And we talked
about though it's the biggest injury in the NFL this season,
no question about it. Like he's taking them from being
no doubt top two, top three team in this league

(41:19):
to now, you know, we got real questions about their defense,
Like that was a big thing for them where they
don't really have anyone else that can even do close
to what he does. And he was such a game
wrecker for them that I feel like every time they
needed a big sack or a big takeaway. He was
in on it like he was either rushing the QB
to get any reception or he's taking the QB down.

(41:39):
It was just such a brutal loss for this Lion's team,
So that's fair that to me, that could be why
the Lions moved too much, or it's also the professionals
love this Vikings team and you know, for them to
come in so heavy earlier in the week like this,
I'm honestly shocked by it because you just said it, like, yeah,

(42:01):
me and you were about to be the guys that
we have to take. We already like the Lions, but
this is even more so. It's like, all right, I
guess we're gonna join the public once again and take
a dog here. That's you know, to me, move too much,
especially two and a half such a key number. So
I need more time on this one because it feels
like this is just like last week with Dallas. It

(42:22):
feels like it's too easy with this Lions team, like
this is a really good matchup for what this Lion's
team wants to do offensively. Maybe the whole view of
it is we're still once again not give enough credit
to Sam Darnold and this Vikings offense and that they
won't be just blown out and rolled over, that they'll
keep this competitive and they'll somehow steal this game to
the end. But I just don't see it. I'm really

(42:44):
trying to see it, and I just can't. And my
model has this at one. So I have the Vikings
favor by one. I give them respect. They should be
home favorites, right, they deserve that much. Now they're up
to two and a half, Like in what world? It's
just really it's way too much movement. So I'm with you.
This one is a very tempting to take It's.

Speaker 1 (43:03):
Way too much for alliance team that is, it is
so so good. Like this offensive team is amazing. What
they are doing is exactly what we thought they were
going to do. It's why we handicapped him the way
we did with the Cowboys, Like they are a physical
team that knows exactly who they are. Jared Goff is
the perfect quarterback for this system. They are calling the

(43:24):
right place. They've gotten through the bumps in the road
of the early season. This Hutchinson news is bad for
the defense, but the offense is still dominant. Obviously Flores
is a great matchup. We'll see what happens, but certainly
going to be an interesting game. We're probably going to
end up being on Detroit if the number stays where
it is or or keeps going. We're getting breaking news.

(43:46):
We'll get to the Bills game in a second, but
according to Tito. According to Ian Rappaport from NFL Network,
the Buffalo Bills are acquiring Amari Cooper from the Cleveland Browns.
So what does that do to our bet? We'll have
to talk about that as things shake out, for sure.
Last stats on the Lions and the Vikings. Home division

(44:07):
faves forty five percent against the spread since twenty fifteen.
Short home division faves three points, so less forty five
percent the last twenty years thirty three forty six against
the spread forty one percent since twenty twenty Tennessee Buffalo
great timing, Tito producer, Tito freaking produce it. Uh, Look,

(44:30):
this was going to be chalky and ugly. I don't
hate the Bills here like these are the games that
Josh Allen just tends to dominate.

Speaker 2 (44:41):
Alert here with Josh Allen, He's He's a football player
through every years work, and there we got drugs.

Speaker 1 (44:56):
Can excuse me?

Speaker 2 (44:57):
Touchdown? How many quarterbacks of your turtle anyone? Goodness, there's
no beer, no way. The demands to do something about

(45:22):
this album regeous.

Speaker 1 (45:23):
Man, big, louder and louder.

Speaker 2 (45:28):
To me, the biggest part of this move for them
is it blocks Kansas City from getting Amari Cooper. Like
that's to me is why the Bills honestly made this move.

Speaker 1 (45:37):
It's like next level chess, seven level chess.

Speaker 2 (45:39):
It helps their team, and it's blocking a team that
I thought it was a slam dunk. The Chiefs would
go get Amari Cooper like he fits exactly what they
want to do a possession receiver. And you know, I've
seen a couple of vance stats that Amari Cooper is
not as good as we perceive. He actually has a
ton of drops this year. Not the same receiver he's
been in the past, But I still feel like he

(46:01):
can win one to one matchups and he still is
such a vet that he knew it's how to get
open and make incredible catches when he does catch the ball.
It's like, I love this for the Bills, that he's
exactly what this team needed a veteran presence, you know,
as fun as it was having these young receivers and
Josh Allen can use anyone he wants. You still want
a guy that you know on third down? He knows. Okay,

(46:23):
all my guys are covered. I know exactly where my one.
My one guy is going to be a Mark Cooper,
even if he's covered a fifty to fifty ball. I'm
still gonna give him Mark Cooper that chance, Like you don't.
You didn't really have that with all these young receivers
in Buffalo, so love to move for them. I honestly
wanted to be on Tennessee. Why is this not ten?
Like to me the number, that's what That's what I mean. Yeah,

(46:44):
So I have this number right where it is. I
have it at eight and a half. So motto doesn't
think there's any crazy value here. I honestly, when I
have a push like this, especially when it's this big,
I tend to lean towards the dogs. I techically want
to take Tennessee here. Yeah right, I'm not putting a
dollar on Will Levis on the road, especially against this

(47:04):
Bills team that you just said it like they have
not they haven't rolled or blown anyone out in a while,
because they've had really tough games these last couple of weeks.
They've played some really good teams. This should be a
cake walk for them, Like they're just such a better team.
You know, maybe Tennessee's defense gives then a little bit
of problems because they do have a good front. But man,
I just love this matchup for this Bills team coming

(47:26):
back home, and you know, I'll check the weather report,
but we have a big cold front coming through here
up in the Northeast, maybe some snow, which would be
even more of a reason to love this Bills team.
We've just seen Josh Allen is just really great playing
in that type of weather at home. So yeah, not
a bet and rushing to make right now. I can't
see this going up that much more, honestly. I just

(47:48):
the way the NFL has been this season, right, Yeah,
we talked about you just don't really see huge dogs
like we used to. It just it rarely keeps going up,
usually comes back down like we saw last year with Cleveland.
Right Cleveland got to nine and a half, I thought
to myself, great, I'll be able to get a ten
for sure by kickoff. I think it was seven and
a half by kickoff. So this this is tough where
if you do want to bet the Bills, I think

(48:09):
you can just roll the dice and wait, maybe it
does come back down across that number.

Speaker 1 (48:13):
Eight Carolina Washington. Washington's is seven a half point favorite.
We'll be on the Panthers pass.

Speaker 2 (48:23):
Yeah, unfortunately we have to nothing.

Speaker 1 (48:25):
Lef to say. No.

Speaker 2 (48:27):
My only thing I'll say is why not put Bryce
Young in? At this point you're one in five. Let
the kid play it out. Just see if you can
see anything worth even building up on. Because this is it.
You're gonna lose out. You know you're probably gonna take
a quarterback at the top of the draft. You might
as well try to showcase a little bit or Bryce
Young and then maybe you can trade them for a

(48:48):
bag of peanuts at the end of the season. But
to keep starting Andy Dalton is just stupid at this point.

Speaker 1 (48:54):
It turns out we got like one dead cat bounce
out of Andy Dalton and everything else we see. We
saw that game. He's been a mirage.

Speaker 2 (49:01):
Yeah, that cat's dead.

Speaker 1 (49:03):
That cat has bounced down. It's now bounced into the ground.
It's never coming back up. Las Vegas Raiders at Los
Angeles Rams Rams six and a half point favorites. You
talked about it on Sunday night. You're thinking Cooper Cup
might come back. The word is he should be back
for week seven. I haven't seen if that's official yet,
but you were saying grabbed the five and a half.

(49:24):
It was sort of a mini Simon Says esque moment
because you felt this number would go to six and
a half. That's exactly what.

Speaker 2 (49:32):
Happened, yep. And now unfortunately have to play the other side.
We're supposed to take the Raiders now that it has
crossed that key number of six to six and a half.
So I'll have more for this game come Thursday. When
Chad you said once, I do know what injury reports are,
and I can get a better number on this one
right now, because right now I have it right at six.
So it's like I thought that number would go up

(49:53):
once once we got news about who was going to
play in this game. It has gone up. Am I
rushing to bet the Raiders right now? And I don't
even who they's st any quarterback is No, I am
not in any way, So another game will happy just
to wait and see if this line keeps growing up.

Speaker 1 (50:08):
Can I say that?

Speaker 2 (50:09):
No, Cleveland just moved to six. So that's why I
didn't think it. Simon says, fucking, hey, dude, I might
have to rush and go take that six whilet stole up.

Speaker 1 (50:21):
Wait, but you're going to take the six on Cleveland
is a six point dog. It's a six point dog.
So you should be glad it was it five and
a half.

Speaker 2 (50:29):
I know I'm saying I'm glad. That's why I didn't
make it. Simon says, half, I was like, this number
should go up to six. There it is. It's at six.
Now you can go grab that if you want the Browns,
which I do.

Speaker 1 (50:39):
Go get the Browns plus six. You know what's interesting
on the Raiders. One thing I want to say quickly
is I like when I was doing the research yesterday,
I'm not looking to bet on the Raiders right now,
but I do think that there's a little bit of
a misleading attitude about the Raiders because of what happened
with the Steelers. They were in that game, like late

(51:01):
in the first half, they had just picked off Justin Fields.
A roughing penalty kept the drive alive. The Steelers scored
a touchdown. Then Boswell kicked a sixty five year old
field goal. Yeah, they were down twenty two to seven.
They had a touchdown called back for a penalty. The
next play, Abdullah fumbles at the one yard line. I'm
glad we didn't bet them, but the score, like was

(51:24):
much worse than the box score indicates. So that's why
I like six and a half doesn't doesn't scare me
as much.

Speaker 2 (51:32):
And on the flip side, we've talked at Naismen about
how bad this Rams team is altogether and how many
injuries they've had and yep, Cooper cups coming back, that
doesn't fix that. Their offensive line has just been terrible
and horribly banged up. And you know that's still the
strength of this Raiders team, right Their front four is
what keeps them in those games. So yeah, just something
to keep an eye on that matchup.

Speaker 1 (51:54):
Game of the week, Game of the first half of
the year, Kansas City at San Francisco. The fundamental questions
right now, San Francisco is a one point favorite, down
from one and a half. Was that one went up
to one and a half, now back down to one.
What has changed since the Super Bowl last year? That
is the fundamental questions. Like last season, the Niners statistically

(52:18):
more impressive in every offensive category, but the Chiefs much
more impressive and amongst league leaders in advanced defensive metrics.
Their third in pass rush, eighth in rush d tenth
in red zone touchdown percentage. The Niners, by the way,

(52:39):
we have talked about all of their issues without Christian
McCaffrey in the red zone. So this past week against
the Seahawks Thursday night, they were three for five for
touchdowns in the red zone. One of their three field
goals was from the twenty three, so let's count that
as three for six. So still not like thriving in

(52:59):
the red zone where the Chiefs will thrive in the
red zone defensively. And then we got Mahomes as a
dog three or last twenty five eight and one against
the spread. So tell me what has changed since the
Super Bowl to make us want to take the Niners.

Speaker 2 (53:17):
Here, Simon says, go grab that plus one and a
half on that Chiefs team right now. A couple of
books out there, still the plus one and a half.
You gotta go grab it like this. Chad just gave
you the stat about Mahomes the dog. It's not even that.
What team do you have more confidence in, even more
so this year than the other team in the fourth quarter.
It's got to be the Chiefs. Like, what team has

(53:38):
won a bunch of games year in the fourth quarter
the other team has melted in the second half. They
tried to blow that Seahawks game, and they really did,
like letting that kick return everything. They're just we talked
something's missing, something's wrong with this forty nine ers team
right now, and I think we both nailed talking about
the McCaffrey thing. That to me is the difference there.
Instead of getting seven, they keep putting up three and

(54:00):
and it's only even a tougher against this Chiefs defense,
who is just brutal to try to score on once
you get in the red zone. They're just spags, knows
exactly what to do once the field gets really small
and tight. So I love this matchup for this Chiefs team.
And you know the fact that I can get them
a plus one and a half, I'm gonna take it
right now because I could easily see this flipping to
being them minus one by kickoff. It's just professionals public.

(54:23):
How do they not all come in on this Chiefs
team in this spot, they just all together been the
most complete team this season. Now you throw each other
coming off a bye week, we know, and your week
coming off a bye week. It's just the perfect storm.
I'm so glad you to make the exact decision. Let
me steal this one, Simon says. When Simon, we do.

Speaker 1 (54:42):
Like I was thinking about it, I had another one.

Speaker 2 (54:46):
I was waiting for it. You were aligning up there
to say it right before you pass it to me,
and I.

Speaker 1 (54:50):
Was like, I was, I was, I'm gracious like that
West Coast time. I'm not as sharp as I know.

Speaker 2 (54:56):
I know what you're waiting for.

Speaker 1 (54:57):
You do, don't you? Sunday Night Folk, New York Jets
at Pittsburgh Steelers. Look, this is breaking news avas of
the last hour ninety minutes or so. Mike Tomlin says,
Russell Wilson may start coincidentally or not over the last
say twelve hours, could be because there was leaks about
DeVante Adams. But this line has moved from Steelers minus

(55:18):
one and a half to Steelers plus one and a
half change that truly changes the calculus on this game,
because if you ever want to bet Mike Tomlin. It's
Mike Tomlin is a home dog, especially as a short
home dog. Don't I don't know what to do here.

Speaker 2 (55:33):
We all talk too much. Sharp dues can just see
it because sharp dues don't care what you say anyway,
They just watching, you know what I mean? Yeah? I
like the Jets, especially if it's Russell Wilson. You go,
when you dive into numbers on this Pittsburgh team and
now it sounds crazy me justin fields is the reason
this team is four and two, and I think the

(55:54):
line movement reflects that, Like Devontad Adams doesn't move the
line three points. I tell you that much. A guy
who hasn't played in weeks at his age, you know,
he's how many snaps is he gonna be playing for
this team? Right? They're gonna slowly revamp him into this offense.
So to me, once it was known that Russell Wilson's
gonna take first team reps in practice all week, that's

(56:15):
what this is really moved. The movement to me, is
based off of So I like this for the Jets. Dude,
Now you're going from having one of the best rushing
quarterbacks in all football. I mean, the guy ran for
what two touchdowns last week? Like, yeah, anytime the pocket
breaks down, he's incredible at getting out of it. Russell
Wilson has been a good rushing quarterback in like five years.

(56:35):
Like this guy is old and slow, his arm is
not what he used to be. And they have one
good receiver in pickings Like okay, now we put sauce
on him to shadow him. Who's Russell Wilson turning two now?
Is like, I do not Tomon rarely makes really bad moves.
This is a really bad move to me. Like he's
too loyal to the veterans and the ogs in this

(56:57):
league where you know, I get it. He gave the
man his word in the middle of summer. That's why.
That's what it feels like to me too, Like it's
just I get it, dude. Tomlin's old school is a
man of honor. I don't think a lot about the
things that I say, to be honest with you, but
you're four and two, and your strength right now is
the fact that you have a running quarterback behind a

(57:18):
terrible offensive line. And I just do not understand this move,
especially you just saw Josh Allen rip up this Jets defense.
Anytime you want to run the ball like they just
they don't have the guys on the outside to keep
up with running quarterbacks. I don't I just do not
get this this at all. So I'm taking the Jets now,
especially it's under two. I know it's a little chalk
and I'm with Chat. It's like, I kind of want

(57:38):
to be on Pittsburgh. So I hope, my hope is
we get the same thing with the Colts last week,
where this number gets up to two and a half
and then they pull the rug. It was just a
diversion the whole week, and Fields is the starter. It
was never going to be Russell Wilson. They just wanted
a team doctor prepare for both quarterbacks, and then I'll
put a larger bet on Pittsburgh cacause I do want
to be on Pittsburgh here, especially as a home dog.
But at this number I won one and a half,

(58:01):
I'm gonna take the Jet, especially if it's gonna be
Russell Wilson at QB.

Speaker 1 (58:17):
Simon. It is time for the executive decision.

Speaker 2 (58:22):
There we go.

Speaker 1 (58:23):
Baltimore is playing at Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay is a
three and a half point favorite. This was my first
game that I eyeballed on Sunday night. It was Bucks
four and a half. The pros hit it immediately, it's
now three and a half. It might have been because
I was saying how much I liked it at four
and a half. And the reason I like this is
because of what the Bucks can do against the run
with Videvea in the middle, and what Baker can do

(58:45):
against a really bad Ravens pasty. Like we're going to
talk about, the Ravens rush D is borderline his I
mean rush offenses borderline historic. And the rush D is great,
top five in the league, there's no no doubt about it.
But like this Bucks D is dreadful in coverage and
against the run, two things that Lamar and the Ravens

(59:08):
can take advantage of. I understand that, but this Ravens
defense has been so bad that it gives every single
quarterback a chance to stay in the game. And I
do think what we'll see with the Bucks that we
didn't see with the Commanders, who also had a chance
to backdoor cover on this. They've actually got better weapons.

(59:30):
Like Mike Evans is a top notch receiver. We saw
with Godwin how well he can play that middle of
the field is going to be open. Like I also
want to fade the road public favorite despite last weekend

(59:51):
since twenty twenty three, twenty twenty four, I'm sorry, since
twenty thirteen, the road public favorite forty eight percent against
the spread, Home dogs of more than a field goal
off of a win of fourteen plus points sixty three

(01:00:13):
percent against the spread the past twenty years. It's just
a good spot for Baker. Give me the box exec decision.

Speaker 2 (01:00:21):
The choice between the unthinkable and the impossible? Are you
have your honor's texting your number executive decision? Yeah, I
love that stat. And we talked there's gonna be a
bunch of home dogs this week. They're gonna get free
point of value. This is a game. We already lost
that point right the four and a half, it's gone,
it's three and a half. Same with the Giants. Giants

(01:00:42):
for four to four and a half. Now it's down
to three and a half. Three. You know, clearly a
professionals took a stand on those games because you talk
about they're just too those numbers are too high for
those matchups against those teams. And you nailed it here
with your Tampa breakdown My only hesitation of people, don't
put your full union yet on this Tampa line. What's

(01:01:02):
the deal with Mike Evans? Well, I need to know
what's going like Evans, because that is a key to
me to what makes that offense just tick. There's there's
no one like hiving the NFL in the red zone
right now like he is. Him and Baker especially, they're
they're so good in the red zone together setting up
easy touchdowns. I think Baker is up to fifteen touchdowns.
And earlier today I did that show Roundtable which given

(01:01:26):
listen to it, go check it out. It's in the
Action app and you know you can find it in
the Action Network on the whole different podcasts. Brad Anderson
had a great bet about Tampa being one of the
more undervalued teams right now. You can get them at
twenty two to one to be the one seed in
the NFC like this, if they win this game, they
pull off this upset, that immediately will drop down to

(01:01:46):
fifteen to one, sixteen to one, like, that's a huge
line mover this win right here. So that's the type
of thing where if you if you're hesitant, you don't
want to bet the money line here because Lamar is
this is another Evans said, I think he's up to
twenty three and one straight up against the NFC. I
totally understand the hesitation. I mean, me and Chad are
no doubt cann have this in the money line round robin,

(01:02:07):
but matchup wise, he nailed it with the V to
day take though, like he's gonna he's gonna shut down
what's been the motor of this team right now, which
is Derrick Henry, Like everything has really run through him.
And yes, we've seen Lamar be great this season passing
the ball, honestly, Like I've been so impressed about how
well he's been passing the ball. But this feels like
a letdown spot for this team. And I know it

(01:02:29):
sounds stupid. Historically, he doesn't play as great in his
home state of Florida. Like I mean, Chad probably remember,
but I always remember this because it was such a
crazy bed at the time. You know, he went down
to Miami is I think it was like, got an
eight point in Favorite on a Thursday night. He got
absolutely rolled by Miami. I think he lost by like
five or six. And it's just these type of snares
where it's like he's a big favorite. Everyone's blowing smoke.

(01:02:51):
He heads down to Florida and his team gets rolled.
It's it's happened before with this Lamar team. So the
trends like it. We like the number. I'd grab it
right now, like Chad just said it, three and a half.
But don't go too crazy because if Mike Emans is out,
this easily will go back up to four to four
and a half. Like that's how much not just my model,
but sportsbook model is that Evans is worth this spread,

(01:03:13):
especially this team. So yeah, are our big reason is
we think there's an advantage on this Bucks team. Bell
attack the secondary of Baltimore. I mean, the DC is
this three two year old, and I think we all
can clearly say he's above his head at this point.
Like their defense, the teams can move the ball against them.
Like you said Washington last week, that shouldn't have been close.

(01:03:35):
They should have dominated that game and they couldn't put
them away like they kept letting Washington stay in it
just because they can't stop the pass. Their secondary just
isn't good enough right now. So Chad nailed. I like
this matchup. We like the plus three and a half
with Tampa.

Speaker 1 (01:03:47):
All right, so at the end of it, we got
some games that we think will be able to carry over.

Speaker 2 (01:03:54):
We have one more game, right, yeah, we do.

Speaker 1 (01:03:56):
We have one more game on Monday night Atlanta. I'm
sorry the Chargers at Arizona. Arizona is a two and
a half point dog.

Speaker 2 (01:04:05):
You know where we're supposed to go?

Speaker 1 (01:04:08):
I don't want to. You have to, though, I don't
want to, And so it's funny. I actually didn't even
put a ton of notes into the script for this
one because it just felt weird to say, are we
gonna get the Cardinals here?

Speaker 2 (01:04:26):
I know, I hate it. We have to, we have
to take the Cardinals at this number. It's just why
is this not a pick?

Speaker 1 (01:04:33):
You?

Speaker 2 (01:04:33):
Are the Chargers really minus two and a half better
than this Arizona team, especially on the road. I don't know.
It just feels like it's too much love and respect
to a horrorball team that I guess Arizona is a
bad team, because I'm saying all they've done this year
is be bad teams, and when they play good teams,
they kind of falter. And I feel like the same here.

(01:04:54):
I feels like we're getting a good number on Arizona
team that they're outdoors in the l then every little
thing that could have gone wrong went wrong for them, right,
it just felt like everything went wrong for them, and
now we're getting a free two points of value on Arizona.
I hate it too, and that makes up that should
make us want to even take even more. And we
both hate it, but we know this is the right

(01:05:15):
number in the right spot to take us Arizona team.
So I'm looking forward to hearing the sharp calls. I
know some professionals who very early came in heavy on
this Chargers team because they like the matchup of their
offensive front of the Chargers versus these defensive front of Arizona.
If they this is a matter of where you can
bullyball them, totally get it. But at what point does

(01:05:36):
that number move too much so that that, to me
is where not tell you about it right now? I
think you can another number. You can be patient and
maybe we'll get a three in the next day, day
or two.

Speaker 1 (01:05:46):
Atlanta two and a half. We talked about green Bay
two and a half. We talked about obviously Cleveland now
at plus six Detroits and a half.

Speaker 2 (01:05:56):
No, yeah, Evan just gave us an update. Oh my god,
I know we're gonna have to take it. It's brutal.

Speaker 1 (01:06:04):
It's gonna be six and a half in the contest now,
I think.

Speaker 2 (01:06:06):
You could get up to seven seven and a half.
I mean this is steaming up right now.

Speaker 1 (01:06:10):
Detroit two and a half, Las Vegas six and a half, case,
one and a half, Jets, one and a half bucks,
three and a half cards plus two and a half.
Like Jesus, I'm looking at this, I'm like, oh my god,
this just has the makings of an exhausting, excruciating weekend

(01:06:31):
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