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September 7, 2023 36 mins

Jason Smith and Mike Harmon celebrate NFL eve. Jason gives you his biggest non-NYJ fear for the season. NFL Insider Jason La Canfora explains why the San Francisco 49ers are not a playoff team. Plus, the guys give you their opening night picks!  

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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Thanks for listening to The Jason Smith Show with Mike
Harmon podcast. Be sure to catch us live every weeknight
ten pm to two am Eastern seven to eleven pm
Pacific on Fox Sports Radio. Find your local station for
The Jason Smith Show with Mike Harmon at Foxsports Radio
dot com, or stream us live every night on the
iHeartRadio app by searching FSR give.

Speaker 2 (00:23):
You're listening to Fox Sports Radio.

Speaker 1 (00:28):
Greetings, Welcome inside, Happy NFL Eve. It is the Jason
Smith Show with my best friend Mike Harmon, live from
the tirag dot com studios tyrack dot com. We'll help
you get there in unmatched selection, fast free shipping, free
road hazard protection, and over ten thousand recommended installers tyrack
dot com. The way tire buying should be. Another year,

(00:52):
we made it. We open our presence tomorrow. It may
or may not include Travis Kelcey. We open our presence tomorrow.
NFL Eve, NFL Eve twenty three, NFL twenty three E
NFL NFL. I'm trying to figure out, like that Dick Clark,
New Year's Rocking Eve. Like like NFL Rocking Eve twenty three.

Speaker 2 (01:12):
Let's good.

Speaker 1 (01:12):
I like that NFL Eve twenty three. Who's gonna play
NFL twenty three? Is it Tears for Fear? No, No,
it's got to be. It's got to be a band.
You know, stop stop tight shirts? Back everybody, everybody's back.
The band is back together. Frostburgh's back from his three
and a half week vacation.

Speaker 3 (01:27):
Uh.

Speaker 4 (01:27):
Now he's getting ready for the season.

Speaker 5 (01:28):
Seemed like twenty pounds of muscle. He's like a Hercules
over he did, He's a Hercules.

Speaker 1 (01:33):
He's actually gonna start for the Dodgers on on Friday,
so they hopefully shows.

Speaker 5 (01:39):
Yeah, we only need to get him to the fifth
because Dave Roberts will then pull him just on principle anyway.

Speaker 1 (01:45):
But but I, but I do want to also say
the musical stylings last night with Johnny Ramos in for
alex tyshirt were really wondering. They were absolutely wonderful.

Speaker 2 (01:54):
Well, it was night and day.

Speaker 5 (01:55):
You had Johnny Ramos shirt chunk and then he tapped
out yeah, and then it really went in a whole
other direction.

Speaker 1 (02:00):
Now, well, we're a big family here at Fox Sports, right,
sometimes we weave a rich time. I don't know, but
we had we had music from Crossroads, not the Britney
Spears movie.

Speaker 4 (02:08):
We had, we had a little David Lee Roth. Last
night I went down had something.

Speaker 1 (02:12):
So it was last night was well, I mean, what
was different about I'm trying to think what I can't
put my finger on.

Speaker 4 (02:18):
I can't. I'm trying to put I can't.

Speaker 2 (02:20):
I can't figure it out.

Speaker 5 (02:21):
No.

Speaker 4 (02:21):
No, it was a lot of positivity.

Speaker 5 (02:22):
I mean, look, there's a vast array of positivity. I
mean because Johnny Ramos comes in and Tyser it's the
same way, right, there's a lot of smiles, there's a
lot of like good feeling of hey, how are you,
how are the kids? Everything going all right? And look
for John Ramos, it was a first for him actually
working at night.

Speaker 4 (02:42):
Uh huh yeah, yeah, right. You were afraid he wouldn't
have the eye, sight or acumen.

Speaker 5 (02:47):
To drive in the darkness, I don't know, suddenly turn
into a were wolf.

Speaker 2 (02:51):
I mean you didn't know what was gonna happen.

Speaker 4 (02:53):
Yeah.

Speaker 1 (02:53):
I said, hey, what's the difference between this show and
all your other shows? He goes, this show's funny. I
was like, hey, that was pretty good.

Speaker 4 (02:58):
We did go I think we pieced that off too,
so that that'll be the something.

Speaker 1 (03:04):
But yes, we have made it to NFL Eve.

Speaker 2 (03:07):
Seventy three remaining. Baby, let's go.

Speaker 4 (03:09):
You are ready to go. We are ready to go.
You're very excited to I was trying to get an
extra one. We'll give you. Well, they they may add
an extra game. You never know. They may add an
extra one because hey, they may counted that last preseason.

Speaker 1 (03:21):
But the Jets proved to be such a huge draw. Hey,
we gotta have them play an extra game because it's
just so great watching them play football. Let's give them
an extra game.

Speaker 5 (03:29):
Boy, you mean like when we sit here on Monday
night eating brisket and caso and watching them lose. The
reason I'm cooking watch I'm trying to at least give
you a good meal watching it when you watch it,
terrible shit watching a bibby.

Speaker 1 (03:41):
When the Jets they say, hey, how about you play
the CFL All Stars.

Speaker 4 (03:44):
In a game?

Speaker 5 (03:45):
Sure, there you go, Jets and a bye week on
Friday night. Yeah, I don't know. They might call up
the Colorado.

Speaker 1 (03:51):
Aaron Rodgers on that incredibly large field, throwing that ball
spraining around. Are you kidding all the UFOs he's gonna
be seeing during the game.

Speaker 5 (04:00):
It really doesn't stop. You know, I will say I'm
pretty proud of myself. Since the season does start tomorrow,
I felt no need to watch the last episode Hard Knocks.

Speaker 4 (04:09):
Oh oh my, I'm doing with it.

Speaker 1 (04:11):
Aaron Rodgers saw UFOs and I really look, this is
where we're at. We can't show players getting cut, so
in said, we get a four minute story of Aaron
Rodgers the time he saw UFO with one of his
friends who came to practice. Let's just extend it. What
can we show? We can't show anybody getting cut. Can
we show the guys making the team?

Speaker 4 (04:27):
Yes?

Speaker 1 (04:28):
What do we do after that? I have no idea.
There's no more games. Let's have Aaron rod Let's use
that UFO story. Five man, hold on to it. Whatever
weed to do, let's turn it out.

Speaker 4 (04:36):
How long is it?

Speaker 1 (04:37):
It's four minutes? Great, four minutes of content. Well, here
Aaron Rodgers tell that story about seeing the UFO outstanding.

Speaker 4 (04:43):
That's Hard Knocks.

Speaker 5 (04:43):
Well, you know what, he had to get some glimpses
into his old self, didn't you.

Speaker 3 (04:49):
Right?

Speaker 5 (04:49):
Because he'd been pretty pretty on par and what everybody
would want in terms of image rehabilitation. Sure, he's happy
with his teammates. Look, we exchange gifts. I've got hand
shakes with everybody. Positivity. Oh there's limb shreiver, all of
that stuff go all the way. Do You couldn't go
through the entire Hard Knocks without him at least going
yeah UFOs like some UFOs.

Speaker 1 (05:12):
Yeah right, listen, I've been on my best behavior and
I've given you guys everything you want to have cursed.

Speaker 4 (05:17):
I've made friends. I brought in the guy in a helicopter.

Speaker 1 (05:21):
You gotta give me one crazy story because you know
I've been dying for this. Hey, all right, you can
tell the UFO story.

Speaker 4 (05:27):
Great.

Speaker 5 (05:28):
I've only yelled at one or two guys that you've
shown during the course of Hard Knocks, all of these things.
I've checked every box you could want in terms of
my image, rehabilitation, and readying for the season, while also
showing you that Robert Sala does nothing. He does nothing.
I am the captain.

Speaker 4 (05:47):
Now curses, great Robert Sala.

Speaker 2 (05:48):
Oh that's only does he run stairs and he cursed.

Speaker 1 (05:51):
He gets the F word in like it's just part
of regular conversation. Like I could see that his only contribution.
You can see him doing that at a restaurant. What
would you like, sir. I'll have the blanking sweep potatoes
on the side. I'll get some blank in dressing, and uh.
For my meal, I'm gonna have the blank and steak,
except that's gonna be blank and medium rare, right, don't
blank and bring it to me blank and meano really
cooked right, blank and medium rare. I'll have a blank

(06:13):
and diet coke, diet coke right, blank? And what do
you got frostburg? Welcome back, my friend. How much of
the Jets paid spectrum in charter? By the way, Oh,
the Jets. The Jets paid everybody to just show the Jets.
That's what's gonna happen when you get to when you
get to week one, the spectrum charter thing is going
to be solved. You're not going to get ESPN or
FX or ESPN plus. You are going to get Jets programmed.

(06:35):
You don't get to the Jets.

Speaker 5 (06:36):
Someone's do with this so that the country, some of it,
doesn't have to watch the l There is perhaps a
little of that, like a little bit of a preemptive
mercy move here that could be, could be so you
don't have to watch it to cinegrade after an off
season of height.

Speaker 4 (06:53):
Through Right after the game.

Speaker 1 (06:54):
I'm telling you we are going to smash the Bills
week one.

Speaker 4 (06:59):
We already we have a sam which bet we.

Speaker 1 (07:00):
We're gonna smash the Bills. The Jets are gonna smash
trust me, Trust me, I know what I'm talking about.

Speaker 5 (07:05):
And I bought extra loaves of bread that I'll bake
on on Monday when I bring the caso and brisk
it in so he can wipe his truss.

Speaker 4 (07:14):
It's gonna be crusty bread.

Speaker 1 (07:15):
It's gonna be one of those games where everybody in
the NFL goes, wow, maybe they are really that good,
and the Bills are gonna go what has happened? It's
gonna be is the Bills? Is the Bills window closing?
The Jets are gonna sell right, They're gonna smash the Bills.

Speaker 2 (07:29):
I would say.

Speaker 5 (07:30):
The one part of the equation that is interesting, and
as we get ready to revamp and and get our
Week one, I watch you flex podcast rolling is the
question of Stefan Diggs right and what he might be
able to do or does he get dominated by your guy?

Speaker 4 (07:46):
Is he lost in the sauce?

Speaker 5 (07:49):
Does he get lost in the sauce, or does he
come up with plays or does it become.

Speaker 1 (07:53):
The Gabe Davis show. Sure, sure, yeah, the best secondary
in the NFL. Sure, Yes, it'll be those shows.

Speaker 4 (07:59):
Let's let's sell break all of them. Yeah, I will
say this. Look, man, they got to go do it
on the field again, and.

Speaker 1 (08:04):
They will trust me. They're gonna smash the Bills. We went, oh,
maybe they are that good all the Jets.

Speaker 2 (08:08):
So why why are they doing?

Speaker 3 (08:10):
No?

Speaker 5 (08:10):
No, no, every riddle me this batman, because nobody why
are they two and a half point? Everybody else other
than Dione Sanders, Nobody, no player, team or persona in
the sporting.

Speaker 4 (08:21):
World has their asses kicked at kissed.

Speaker 1 (08:24):
Nobody more than the Jets. Nobody. Well, okay, that you
were right about the first part. For the last forty years. Well, yes,
nobody knows what I that's where we trust me.

Speaker 4 (08:33):
Nobody knows.

Speaker 5 (08:34):
You've got some crystal ball that nobody else has been
prettysh the Bills.

Speaker 1 (08:37):
The Bills have been great for the last few years. Yes,
the Jets have one of the top three rosters in
the NFL. They are hungry. It's going to be a
game where Jet life state the fans are going to
come out of the stands and tackle the Bills plays
the guy you're actually calling you to be sane, It's
gonna be insane.

Speaker 5 (08:51):
Does Aaron Rodgers having to be Pard one eighth as
fantastic as Lionel Messi?

Speaker 4 (08:56):
You know what's going to be more fun better? What's that?
Playing this back Monday night after the camp.

Speaker 1 (09:02):
And then and then suddenly you're gonna go, oh, we
lost it. It's thirty eight to three. Oh we lost
the tape. Jets are gonna smash the Bills. But you
want a big fear, I'll give you a fear. I'll
give you a fear of fund Jets, Jet Jets. I
will give you this. And that's new with the biggest
NFL story of the day. Right, we watched Nick Bosa
come in, oh ye finally and get signed forty nine ers,
making everybody nervous. Defensive player the year in the NFL?

(09:22):
Is you gonna play? I gotta get paid. I want
more money, five year, one hundred and seventy million dollar
extension to return to play.

Speaker 5 (09:29):
Right, don't this week, play in the preseason or show
up for workouts one hundred and seventy million. Of course,
that's a number three starter for six years in Major
league gets baw.

Speaker 1 (09:39):
And also, and if you're Chandler Jones, make sure you
can get into the gym to work out as long
as you.

Speaker 5 (09:42):
Go that you do have to negotiate a working key
card that is part of your package.

Speaker 1 (09:47):
He is the highest paid defensive player in the NFL.
And the Niners now feel, okay, we are back to
being the overwhelming favorite we were coming into this year
because look, they're still a great They're loaded up and down.

Speaker 4 (09:59):
The the ross is fantastic, question mark. Yeah.

Speaker 1 (10:03):
Well and here, well, well quarterback, he was fine last
year and now you're bringing the best defense defensive player
in the NFL.

Speaker 5 (10:09):
Very short sample size. But option is a guy that
is terrified.

Speaker 4 (10:15):
Now here's the thing this is.

Speaker 1 (10:17):
This is you think my biggest fear of the season
is the Jets sucking. No, I've seen the Jets suck before.
If they suck, okay, the Jets sucking and the Giants
being really good, boy, that would really really suck. But
then again, i've seen that before. We'll do our Super
Bowl picks later.

Speaker 4 (10:34):
I've seen that.

Speaker 1 (10:34):
I've seen the Jets suck and the Giants be good.
I've seen that before. My biggest fear, My biggest fear
is that Sam Darnald leads the forty nine ers to
the super Bowl, because you could see it happening. Sure,
brock Purty either is not one hundred percent healthy or
he's not as effective as he was. They want to

(10:55):
sit him down for whatever reason. And Sam Darnald comes
in and it just clicks. Whatever click with the Jets, meaning, hey,
knowing where to throw the football, whatever didn't click with
the Jets somehow clicks with the forty nine ers because
he's on a much better team than he was and
in all and hey, don't worry about it. We'll just
hand the ball to Christian McCaffrey. Guys, I don't know
if I can complete.

Speaker 4 (11:14):
This doesn't matter. We'll get you.

Speaker 1 (11:15):
We'll just here's you do you hand it to Christian
McCaffrey on the first play? Right, What do I do
in the next play? Give it to Christian McCaffrey. We're
going to swing pass out of the backfield. Okay, what
about third down? Give it to Deebo Samuel on the reverse?
What about and then just repeat it. Everything's gonna be fine,
Sam okay, if you say so. That's my biggest fear
is that Sam Darnald shows up and suddenly all the
columns all year long are just like, hey, look at

(11:36):
the Jets. They couldn't get it right with Gino Smith.
Ten years later, Gino Smith is a Pro Bowl quarterback
in this huge, rich guy. Now who's suddenly someone in
charge of this team and he's gonna be a quarterback
now in the league to be a good player for years.

Speaker 4 (11:49):
Then Sam Darnald. They couldn't get it right with Sam.

Speaker 1 (11:51):
Donald but then and he couldn't get it right in
Carolina either, But here he is now finally in the system,
fighting on a team where Sam is gonna say, I
feel come after Bowl, I feel looked after. I feel
like everybody knows what's going on, and it's gonna be
outside potshots of the Jets, and every week Sam Darnold's
exactly what this team he did. Oh, we knew he
was gonna be this good all the way back to
USC He just needed to be in the right system.

(12:13):
And all kinds of hot takes on the radio, you see,
it's just amount of quarterback being the right system. Just guys,
you got a guy in the right system and the
system works. If you have got a guy in the
wrong system, he might not be there. As certain guys
that are great and they could play.

Speaker 6 (12:23):
In any system, then there's some guys that need the
right system does so happened to guys at jets Drop.
They put him in, they put him in. They weren't
in the right system. So now they're in the right system.
And you say, what they do in Chattle, you see
what they do in San Francisco. Hit some system and
that's it. That's my biggest fear. I thought, I really
thought my biggest fear.

Speaker 4 (12:38):
I thought I was gonna have a scanner's moment right there.

Speaker 5 (12:40):
That is my biggest because as we talked about, and
we'll go through a lot of the preview over the
course of the night. I mean, you've got two teams
that are vying for the toilet bowl right in Arizona
and the potentially the Los Angeles Rams. Right, it does
not look good. Cooper Cup may be in bubble wrap
all year long, just like Kyler Murray. He's already out

(13:00):
on Sunday and he may go on I you know
what I'm saying. We're at a point where you're looking at.
And then you have the Camleb Williams story that we
have to get into with his own man a little
bit later on. But the idea is you've got a
two team race for your division ground, so playoff bound
and then rolling from there. And I would love nothing
more to watch you score. Miss Sam Darnold is slinging touchdowns.

(13:23):
Say guest fear biggest fear on percause remember we also
know Matt rules offense. It doesn't work going back the
other way either, going back to college twitter.

Speaker 1 (13:31):
At, how about a Fresca x at? How about a
Fresca ex at swollen do the Jason Smith Show with
my best friend Mike Carbon Tonight Chill brought to you
by Progressive Insurance. Progressive makes bundling easy and affordable to
get a multi policy discount by combining your motorcycle, RV, boat,
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and save at Progressive dot com. Yes, we'll have our

(13:52):
Super Bowl picks, our official Super Bowl picks on tonight
show coming up next Jason Lock and fora NFL Insider
stock by the latest. Will Travis Kelce play tomorrow? Will
Cooper cup Ever play will Caleb Williams come to the NFL.
We'll look at the big games this weekend. Keep it
right here, it is time happy NFL Eve. This is
Fox Sports Radio.

Speaker 4 (14:13):
Done on on on on, on on, on, on on
on on a batman.

Speaker 2 (14:17):
Be sure to catch live editions of The Jason Smith
Show with Mike Harmon weekdays at ten pm Eastern, seven
pm Pacific Fox Sports Radio.

Speaker 1 (14:26):
The Jason Smith Show with My best friend Mike Harmon
brought to you by Progressive Insurance. Progressive makes bundling easy
and affordable. Get a multi policy discount by combining your motorcycle, RV, boat,
ATV and more all your protection in one plays. Bundle
and save at Progressive dot com. Well, we have big
news today on NFL Eve. Travis Kelcey may play tomorrow

(14:49):
night with his knee injury. Nick Bosa definitely going to
play after signing one hundred and seventy million dollar extension.

Speaker 4 (14:57):
What is all this? How is your day? Joining us now?
No body better?

Speaker 1 (15:01):
Longtime NFL insider Honesty check him out Washington Post as well.

Speaker 4 (15:05):
Jason Locke and for it, Jay Low. What's happening, Bud?

Speaker 3 (15:08):
What's going on? Guys?

Speaker 2 (15:10):
Now? You haven't I know you.

Speaker 1 (15:11):
Have a column coming up Washington Post breaking down Syracuse's
sixty five nothing win over Colgate last weekend.

Speaker 3 (15:18):
Daughter was there from our oldest as a freshman, so
she was tuxting me pictures of the blowout.

Speaker 1 (15:24):
Wow, Dad, another touchdown, Dad, another touchdown?

Speaker 3 (15:27):
Not quite not quite that much regular and it was
more auto and the fancy news scoreboy, I don't even
know how new it is. But the scoreboard, you know
that hangs above the field, which did not exist when
I was there. But yeah, that's okay.

Speaker 4 (15:41):
Colgate last week, Alabama this week.

Speaker 2 (15:42):
No, we're going where so as them right where we want. So.

Speaker 1 (15:47):
Travis Kelcey has been the story of the NFL the
last twenty four hours his knee injury. They avoid a
worst case scenario with his ACL being intact. He's officially
questionable for tomorrow. Are we going to see Travis Kelsey
play to.

Speaker 3 (15:59):
Our new It seems kind of ambitious. You know, you've
got ten days off on the other side of this
and an interesting matchup at Jacksonville. I would think they
take the long view here. It just happened yesterday. You know.

(16:20):
It was a significant enough injury that he needed to
get further testing, considerable further testing, you know, and it
is a hyper extension. I know that he will probably
be begging and kicking and streaming and pleading to play.
But man, I tend to think, especially right now, you

(16:43):
you know, be as prudent as possible. And can they
win at home? You know, in the first game of
the year, with all that time to prepare with the
best quarterback on the planet against the team that certainly
made some strides, I'll give you that, but was downright
deficient on defense. You know, could they can the great

(17:03):
Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes find a way to score
one more point than the Lions? I think, you know,
without Travis Kelcey, I think so.

Speaker 5 (17:11):
And then we have the fun of Chris Jones still
not being there, and now he's made really weird analogies
as to opinions and expert stuff on his on his
contract situation. But kind of interesting, right, you only have
one of the big three of your superstars there for
that opening night, and now it becomes which which guy
steps up? And how much difference does it look with

(17:33):
no Travis Kelcey.

Speaker 3 (17:35):
Yeah, and look, I kind of felt like the Chris
Jones thing has been. I mean, it has looked unlikely
he's not playing this game for awhile, so they've been
preparing for that, and I honestly feel like they were
going to come out throwing the ball over the place,
trying to you know, feed off that crowd, do what
they do, which is execute amazing early game scripts, try

(17:58):
to get up by two scores early, get the Lions
out of that run run, run mentality that they would
probably like to be in, and you know, take their
chances without Chris Jones. Now, yeah, now you take away
Kelsey too, that that's a different proposition and it certainly
makes the margins a little smaller, and you know, there

(18:19):
isn't that individual brilliance there that we've become accustomed to.
But I think this is also kind of what they
get off on a little bit, you know, and finding
ways to still keep proving people wrong. And you know,
the Patriots used to deal with this with them all
the time, right when they were the bullies on the
block in the AFC, and them kind of finding ways

(18:40):
to motivate themselves or you know, keep saying that they're
out to get us, or you know, things don't go
our way, YadA, YadA, YadA. So again, I think it
was the kind of thing that probably brings out the
best in them, but they're going to need those like
obviously moving forward, right, it's a different story, and they
have a hell of a hard schedule. And again I'm

(19:01):
not trying to imply that this is a layup for them,
but I do think this is a softer landing than
some of these road games they have coming up.

Speaker 1 (19:12):
All right, Jay, the other big news we talked about
it a little bit, Nick Bosa five year, one hundred
and seventy million dollar extension for the biggest disruptor in
the NFL. Does this make it I don't want to
say unbeatable, but does this put San Francisco above everybody
else in the NFC? Coming back, healthy quarterback, everything else
going on?

Speaker 3 (19:31):
Not for me, I'm not sure they're a playoff team.

Speaker 4 (19:33):
Wow, Wow, you hate party that much.

Speaker 3 (19:39):
I'm just not sold on them. And you know, this
team that people always seem to want to anoint, Like
I remember I'm going five and three on the road
last year and things being struggle bust for them, and
then losing at a horrible Denver team and losing at
a Horrible Bears team, and I think it's a top
heavy roster. I have cons I mean, Trent Williams, when's

(20:01):
the last time he went back to back years without
catastrophic injury. I just feel like that's a big ask.
Chris Dido for Christian McCaffrey. Uh, I I don't know, man,
I'm you know, rock Party. Just go look at the
defense as he faced last year and what exactly they
did against him, and yeah, that that defense better be better,

(20:25):
be the best in the league. And and and I'm
not sure, man, I just I have some I have
some reservations. I like Seattle to win that division and
then we'll have to see how this whole thing plays out.
But you know, it's not like no one's going to
be sitting there throwing brock purty on their shoulders, right
and and loving them up and rubbing them, you know,

(20:48):
grabbing him by the scruff of the neck and rubbing
his head every time he completes a forward pass. You know,
I mean, the bar had gotten so low it was like,
does he have a pulse? Does he have a working
rotator cuff? Does he does he? Can he throw the
ball fifteen yards downfield? You know, like, now it's like
day we're supposed to win a super Bowl with Sky
and Kyl. Shanahan's a genius. Just ask him, and you

(21:10):
know they's got it all figured out.

Speaker 2 (21:13):
Well, we'll see.

Speaker 5 (21:16):
So Jason crazy like a fox? Or does a guy
just need to shut up? Sean Payton and his Russell
Wilson Now, hey, you were loved, You're not running for
office and all this other stuff. It's like, I think
he's just really setting him up as the fall guy.
If this go himself, that he goes beyond him.

Speaker 3 (21:34):
Look, I think you know, Sean Payton is one of
the few loose cannons in this league, especially in the
coaching position, and I think that year in their broadcast
booth may have loosened them up even more. But he's
crazy like a fox, and I think he's trying to
motivate Russell in his own way, and you know what,

(21:54):
it just might work. I don't really know what to
make of of them. You know, this is a weird
game with the Raiders, Like, for whatever reason, the Raiders
have kind of had their number, you know, and the
Broncos have often looked better outside that division than in
it in recent years. And I think it's a good defense.

(22:15):
But you know, I don't know. I'm just very much
in wait and see mode with them all the way around.
But Sean Payton knows one thing. The odds are incredibly
in his favor to outlast Russell Wilson one way or
the other. And especially if it's not going well there,

(22:36):
if it doesn't go well there, then yeah, there'll be
on another quarterback next year.

Speaker 1 (22:42):
NFL insider Jason Locking for our guest here The Jason
Smith Show with Mike Carmon Liverom Thetirec dot Com Studios.
All right, so let's think big. We're doing We're doing
this tonight on the show. Your super Bowl pick for
this year the Jets, and who I know how much
you love them all? You love the Jets all off season,
you loved every thing you saw. You love Aaron Rodgers,

(23:02):
you love Robert Sala not cursing at all. You led
so the Jets and who is your pick?

Speaker 3 (23:08):
All? What is it all? Gas? No breaks? That's that's amazing.
Break makes me want to run through a wall. Let
me tell you, I hadn't really done you know what.
It's weird that you mentioned that because I was doing,
you know, reading messing around on Twitter, and I saw
people kind of making the super Bowl pick. So it's like,
I've done all this content about you know, who I
think is gonna win divisions and who I think, you

(23:31):
know is a good value play in the futures market,
and you know, wagering and blah blah blah blah. But
I hadn't really thought about the super Bowl itself, and
I hadn't had to do that yet. You know, nobody
said like, hey, you got to make this prediction, so
I don't have one. Well, I'm saying I hadn't thought

(23:52):
about it that much. I hadn't gone that far. It's
been more about who I thought was winning divisions and
getting in playoffs and meeting win totals and not exceeding
are getting to win totals.

Speaker 2 (24:02):
I will who I know?

Speaker 3 (24:05):
I know.

Speaker 2 (24:05):
I don't have the knot.

Speaker 4 (24:06):
You're not having the Niners in the super Bowl. I
know that, So that knocks.

Speaker 3 (24:09):
I'm not we can eliminate them. Let's go team by team.

Speaker 2 (24:12):
And we have been eliminating, right, we.

Speaker 3 (24:15):
Can eliminate the Colts. I think the Texans. I don't
have a strong feeling good all right, Yeah, call me crazy.
Not the Cardinals year, So what do we down to?
Twenty seven?

Speaker 4 (24:25):
Already already alight the Jets.

Speaker 3 (24:29):
Like, I'll say this, if I was playing a flyer
on a team to make the Super Bowl and win
the Super Bowl, that would pay off pretty good. Like
I think the way things set up for the Jags, Like,
it wouldn't stun me if the Jags are the one seed,
you know, and that carries with it a lot of clout.
You're you're the only team getting that break. I don't

(24:52):
know the coach has been there, done that. I just
they intrigued me in that guard and in the NFC.
I just think it's the Eagles and everybody else now
do I But we know how difficult it is to
repeat and to get back there, especially when you've lost.
So I don't know, maybe that would lead me to

(25:14):
just throw it dart somewhere else, Like how about Jacksonville Seattle?
The least sexy super Bowl in the history of the
Super Bowl.

Speaker 1 (25:23):
So I gotta watch Geno Smith in the Super Bowl.
Wouldn't that be something in the Super Bowl? No, I
wouldn't be I would I really have no desire to
watch Geno.

Speaker 3 (25:32):
Smith, Like rub the Jet Nosers in it one more time.
I honestly was it. But I'm thinking of like, all right,
I'm obviously not super high on San Francisco. So if
it's not the Eagles, and again, I think the Eagles
are the class of that conference. Like, could I see Seattle,
you know, riding some home field advantage and that defense
did get better last year. I think it'd be even

(25:53):
better this year. I don't know. I guess crazier things
have happened. Seattle, Jacksonville, super Bowl, you have it?

Speaker 4 (26:01):
Wow, Seattle, Jacksonville, Jason Locking.

Speaker 5 (26:03):
All right, so we walked walked to that, and now
let's back it out a bit, you know, in terms
of a surprise, right, because we did the process of elimination.

Speaker 3 (26:12):
Not a surprise enough, No no, no, no no.

Speaker 2 (26:14):
But I mean division winners, right, Jacksonville.

Speaker 5 (26:16):
I think we all, I mean, Jason and I are
certainly in lockstep with you on that. In that division, right,
it's them in Tennessee and everybody hates Ryan Tannehill. So
we throw them out. Jacksonville wins Seattle. If it's not
San Francisco, sure as hell, isn't the Rams or the
or the Cardinals. So by default their division is do

(26:38):
you have another surprise or.

Speaker 4 (26:40):
I mean, what's coming what's coming out of the AFC North?
How about that.

Speaker 3 (26:43):
Pittsburgh to win? There you go.

Speaker 1 (26:46):
Are you allowed to say that, being on the air
in Baltimore that you're picking Pittsburgh?

Speaker 4 (26:49):
Are you allowed to do that?

Speaker 3 (26:50):
I've said it in many way shapes and forms. I've
written about it to Washington Post. It's it's established. You
could get it real early in the offseason. Plus six
point fifty. It's still around plus five hundred. Yeah. I
think they're going to beat San Francisco. I think they're

(27:14):
the best team in this division on paper, and I
am buying their quarterback. I mean, when t J. Watt
dresses for an NFL football game the last three years,
that team's twenty nine, twenty nine, ten and one. And
that's with the shell and carcass of Ben Roethlisberger. Right,
that's the provisions smeared in there. You know, I think

(27:35):
we got a little bit of Mason Rudolph. We missed,
we missed what was his name, Duck Hodges or yeah,
we missed him. He doesn't qualify. But think about that.
That's and for how many of those games, was he
really himself? And and you know high Smith is there.
This her big kid I think is going to be legit.
They've rebuilt their offensive line. You look at what they

(27:56):
did the first half last year and then what they
did after their bye, not Jay Harris yards before contact,
it doubles. I mean, they were finally starting to open
up some holes and I think they're going to be
even better on the left side as the season goes along.
I like their ability to beat it now with eleven personnel.
With twelve personnel, you want to get funky. With twenty

(28:18):
or twenty one personnel, they can get both those backs
on the field at the same time. And they do
still employ a fullback as well. So I'm I'm really
intrigued by the Pittsburgh steel As we know what Mike Tomlin,
you know what he means to a team, and the
fact that he's been at this what sixteen years, never
had a losing season. I think they're I think they're

(28:39):
going to surprise some people.

Speaker 1 (28:40):
Hot stuff from Jason lock and for check them out
on Twitter at Jason lock and for Odyssey watching him
post one five seven in Baltimore as well. Jay is
always buddy appreciated. My friend will take you next week,
join it.

Speaker 3 (28:52):
I have a great week chance, thank you?

Speaker 4 (28:53):
Say brother, who that was hot? That was hot? Niners
not even a playoff? I like that?

Speaker 5 (28:59):
Wow, like not dancing around it just went. I don't
think they're very good.

Speaker 4 (29:03):
Yeah, but then he didn't put the Seahawks in the suit.

Speaker 5 (29:05):
I mean, come on, man, but I mean, let let's
go do that really quick, right If the forty nine
ers on paper, the roster looks great, Yeah, but it's
held together with duck date. No, no, no, because then
thinking of is Sam Darnold versus Smith in the NFC
Champions could happen?

Speaker 2 (29:21):
No, don't sound grey? Would that be?

Speaker 4 (29:23):
It would be all we'll have a viewing party that
we will set up.

Speaker 5 (29:27):
I will quite because they'll have the Chargers that he's
got to go do their not shit.

Speaker 2 (29:32):
No done, dude, I mean, come on, that'll be so good.

Speaker 1 (29:35):
Grace Smith and say, come on, man and the ex
jet NFC champion.

Speaker 4 (29:38):
No, no, no storylines for days.

Speaker 5 (29:41):
No, we should have a bye week before they play it,
so we get to celebrate it for two weeks before kickoff.

Speaker 4 (29:47):
You have fun.

Speaker 1 (29:48):
I'm gonna go to Antarctica until wait, the little football
season's over.

Speaker 4 (29:50):
Well the ballpit at McDonald's for you. Sure.

Speaker 2 (29:55):
Be sure to catch live editions of The Jason Smith
Show with Mike Harmon weekdays at ten eastern seven pm
Pacific on Fox Sports Radio and the iHeartRadio app Fox
Sports Radio. The Jason Smith Show with My best friend
Mike Harmon. Yo, Well you're ruined a tight shirt.

Speaker 4 (30:11):
You wrote it. I know you had. You couldn't make
it in last night.

Speaker 1 (30:14):
You had car trouble and you're you're gonna get a
new car, but he's here today. I was going to
buy you a new car, but you played this song
and now it's done.

Speaker 4 (30:22):
Yeah, forget it.

Speaker 1 (30:24):
I had a key. I had a key to it.
I was gonna hand it to you as you walked
out of here. Now I'm gonna give it to somebody else.
O wheels don't count. You drive home and the luxury.

Speaker 5 (30:33):
How do you know you might have a magic dropper
of some liquid that makes it supersized. You know, like
those dinosaurs you buy in the little eggs that all
of a sudden they're floating around.

Speaker 4 (30:43):
It's huge.

Speaker 1 (30:43):
I would have done the old Bob Barker with you.
I could give you this big mac to eat or
a new car. No, but you played that song, so
now it's out. So now you're walking over walk home walk.
I'm gonna walk. You're walking.

Speaker 4 (31:00):
It might have to walking. So happy NFL Eve. Yeah,
we are here. We have made it.

Speaker 1 (31:05):
Twenty four hours from now. We're talking about seven months.
Game of the season, yeah, Lions and the chief game
of the season. First game. Now, time to make our
first pack. He's great. First pick, first game of the season.
I'll just hit you right between the eyes. I'm taking
the Lions in five. I won't need the points because
the Lions are going to win the game, but I'll
take them because I'm not stupid. I will take the

(31:27):
Lions in five points. The Lions offense is loaded. Their
offensive line is terrific. No Chris Jones, big big problem.
The Chiefs are good, but you're talking about missing your
biggest player on defense, and outside of Mahomes, likely your
most important piece on offense in Travis Kelsey. I really
can't see him playing tomorrow night. This is an injury

(31:49):
that happens on a Tuesday. Two days later. He's going
to play. When you have all kinds of stuff. We
talked about it last night. Is he really gonna cut
the defending champs? You're thinking about January and February. He's
really gonna suddenly jump in and play on I get
you want to play. It's opening night, It's a big,
nationally televised game, everybody is watching. I understand that, But

(32:10):
when it comes down to it, I can't see the
Chiefs that yes go out there and play. So you're
talking about being without two absolute studs. It's gonna be
a struggle early for both teams because it always is,
because the beginning first games of the season in the
NFL are always tough because offenses don't play. It's a
slog fest. Then you're gonna see the Lions offense really
start to get it humming and get it going. This

(32:31):
is a lot of the same parts. You talk about
a breakaway back in Jamior Gibbs ready to make his debut,
and all kinds of big predictions for what he's gonna
do this year. It's gonna be much tougher for the Chiefs. Again,
give me the Lions. I don't need the points, but
I will still take them four.

Speaker 4 (32:46):
And a half.

Speaker 5 (32:48):
Right, Yeah, I'm not gonna need him. I'm not gonna
need him, but I'll take them. But the over under
has dropped. It was all the way up to fifty five,
currently sitting at fifty three as I look at it
here tonight. A couple of data points to throw at you.
Lions under Dan Campbell twenty three and eleven against the
number thus far. You want to talk about getting after it.

(33:09):
You look at Jared Goff, He's thirty three or thirty
one to thirty three and two against the spread in
outdoor games in his career. How about that for specificity,
let's go a little bit deeper though, Ryan's Week one
overs twelve and ohs. Since twenty eleven, Patrick Mahomes and
his Week one openers, the over is touched five straight time.

(33:32):
So we're heading over that fifty three mark. I'm going MBS,
I'm going sky Moore, and I'm looking for Jerck McKinnon
to go whoop all the way around little screen passes
running for daylight making plays. Look, Chris Jones, they weren't
anticipating he was gonna play, so they're gonna coach him up.
They're gonna be able to absorb some of that loss, obviously,

(33:53):
not long term, right, you want to play in January?
You want to play next year in Las Vegas in
the big one. Uh, you're gonna need him back, and
he's gonna have to get past the opinions and what
it smells like and and suddenly deciding an extra million
dollars a week would actually matter to him. Andy Reid
nine and one straight up in season openers as Chiefs

(34:15):
head coach, seven and three against the number. Give me
the Chiefs. Why in the four and a half you
have to take in You have to lay the four
and a half. You're the favorite. You have no choice.

Speaker 4 (34:28):
I'm telling you, of course I have choice. Here's how confident.
Of course I have a choice and four and a half.

Speaker 2 (34:33):
It's not a field goal two and a half.

Speaker 4 (34:35):
You have to if you're taking the favorite, you have
to give the points. That's how it works.

Speaker 2 (34:38):
Now.

Speaker 4 (34:40):
I can sit here and say.

Speaker 2 (34:42):
You're trying to tell me how this Lions are gonna.

Speaker 4 (34:44):
Win on the field.

Speaker 5 (34:46):
They win on I know how up in the back
of a sports book, and you're gonna try to tell
me how to have to give them.

Speaker 4 (34:51):
You have to give the point I don't have to
give you.

Speaker 1 (34:53):
You do you try to walk and see if you
get any action walking in. Hey, I want to take
the Chiefs. Okay, get what. I want to give it
a joint favorite on Monday Night.

Speaker 5 (35:01):
You know what, I didn't give you two and a
half for your half assed Jets.

Speaker 4 (35:04):
Alright, that's fine. I don't raight up again. I don't
need the points. I don't need the point. I need
the points in that game.

Speaker 1 (35:09):
I don't need the points the game Tomorrow night, Lions,
watch the Lions offense. It's gonna be shocking fourth quarter
where you're gonna sit back and go.

Speaker 4 (35:16):
The Chiefs are gonna come back right, No, no, no.

Speaker 1 (35:19):
Lions at Arrowhead thirty four to twenty four, they shock
the word.

Speaker 4 (35:24):
To Tomorrow night, twenty four.

Speaker 5 (35:25):
At Borrowhead, Lions win at Burrowhead made. I'll thirty four
twenty four. I'll flip it to give me my ten
point margin. Thirty four to twenty four.

Speaker 4 (35:35):
You fallen, So you're gonna pick the same score except
the other way.

Speaker 5 (35:38):
No, no, no, I'm just saying you might have gotten the
score right, but you're getting the team brom Burrow ahead failure.

Speaker 4 (35:43):
Thirty four to twenty Again. I won't need the point
maybe I'll give.

Speaker 2 (35:46):
You thirty seven twenty three.

Speaker 5 (35:48):
About that, I'll give you your score, burial Man, of your
under fifty three fifty three.

Speaker 1 (35:54):
We got more NFL on the way, including our super
Bowl picks. Keep it right here, Fox,
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