Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
For thirty five years, Cindy Stumpo has been a female
home builder with a passion for design, a mastery of detail,
and a commitment to her crack. With daughter Samantha Stumpo
by her side.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
I don't need the whole family on a date with me.
That's a good note. It's godymn weird.
Speaker 3 (00:13):
See.
Speaker 1 (00:13):
Stumpo Development is the only second generation female construction company
in the country.
Speaker 4 (00:18):
You're crazy, You're a wacko.
Speaker 5 (00:19):
You're insane.
Speaker 3 (00:22):
I mean, it just doesn't end together.
Speaker 1 (00:23):
Cindy and Samantha welcome guests to explore the world of construction,
real estate, development, design and more.
Speaker 6 (00:30):
Unpredictable.
Speaker 3 (00:31):
Every time I think I know what you want, you
just switch it out.
Speaker 6 (00:33):
But that's what makes your houses.
Speaker 1 (00:34):
All your day. Discuss anything that happens between the roof
and the foundation. Nothing is off limits. You truly do
care about everybody. She can yell at chicken screen, but
when you get her alone, she's the best person on
the planet. Cindy Stumpo is tough as nails.
Speaker 2 (00:52):
And welcome to Cidy Stumpo Toughest Nails on w Z
News Radio ten thirty. Our guests tonight are.
Speaker 7 (00:57):
Lena Grillo, Sean, Kelly Rand, Tyler Angelina, what do you do?
Speaker 8 (01:01):
I'm a closet designer for a clause is by Design
in Boston.
Speaker 5 (01:05):
I'm Tyler Wender.
Speaker 4 (01:06):
I'm a developer and on a real estate brokerage out
here in Boston.
Speaker 2 (01:09):
Okay, and missus my pians.
Speaker 7 (01:11):
Come on, John Kelly Wren, the already advisors, so private
lender in Boston.
Speaker 2 (01:17):
Okay. So just a little short history. Just everybody give
what they do. We understand what lean it does, we
understand what I do. What makes you so good at
hard money lending? Just give me a little bit?
Speaker 5 (01:28):
Call it private lending, private credit?
Speaker 2 (01:29):
What if you want to call it? Wait, what's the
proper you call it? Anything you want to call it.
Speaker 7 (01:32):
Let's talk about you know why we do it? How
do we get into it? And you know we've been
doing it now?
Speaker 2 (01:37):
First of all, I want to know your proper name,
John Kelly w Rean. No, I don't. What do I
get that? Are you guys still considered hard money lending?
Guys London guys? Oh what lending lending? I don't lending.
Speaker 5 (01:50):
I don't think of myself as a hard money lender.
Speaker 2 (01:52):
I think of us you know, Oh, you're just trying
to put a more professional name over your heads.
Speaker 7 (01:57):
No, but I think it's something different. Right, I'm running
a private credit fund. I think of hard money lending
is a very old school.
Speaker 2 (02:04):
No way I'm doing it hard money lending. Guys, we're
definitely gangsters back in the days.
Speaker 5 (02:09):
Not a gangster.
Speaker 2 (02:10):
Okay, So let's go where it started. It was street money.
Speaker 5 (02:13):
But and this isn't street.
Speaker 2 (02:15):
Street money to hard money lending. And now you're.
Speaker 7 (02:20):
Call it private credit, private credit, well, private credit on
the side, from the investors side, from the borrower side,
it's private lending.
Speaker 5 (02:27):
What do you call it? What would tyler? What do
you call it?
Speaker 2 (02:29):
You guys are still hard money.
Speaker 5 (02:30):
It was a client private lending.
Speaker 4 (02:31):
If I'm going to go do a cosmetic fix and flip,
I'm gonna go get hard money for a five six
month loan. Yeah, the industry is private lending. It's it's
non bank lender.
Speaker 2 (02:39):
I mean, it's that like stock broke, as they went
from stockbrokers to financial advisors to wealth advisors.
Speaker 5 (02:44):
What is Blackstone?
Speaker 7 (02:45):
Blackstone runs, you know, a private credit fund that lends
to other private credit funds, and they're you wouldn't hard money.
Speaker 5 (02:52):
You don't call them a hard money lender, right?
Speaker 2 (02:54):
Right?
Speaker 7 (02:54):
Why why don't you call them a hard money lender.
It's a senior loan on a piece of property and
it's non bank.
Speaker 5 (02:58):
What's the difference?
Speaker 7 (02:59):
Good point taken right, And that's what we are. We're
seeing your loan on a property non bank.
Speaker 2 (03:04):
Are you ever going to get to that level?
Speaker 5 (03:06):
Yeah? You will, yeah, maybe in a blackstone, but I
think we're gonna we'll hit a billion.
Speaker 2 (03:10):
You'll hit a billion, ye, So goals to hit a
billion buy.
Speaker 5 (03:13):
It's probably about ten years, ten years.
Speaker 2 (03:16):
Oh yeah, yeah, y'll be dead. Ten years sounds like
a long time away. No for me, it sounds like
a very short time a way. For you guys, that's
when you should be coming to your project.
Speaker 5 (03:25):
And I think we're that's not actually true.
Speaker 2 (03:27):
You howled in forty five, Oh yeah, fifty five, Yeah,
forty five to fifty five, great years. Thirty five to
fifty five, those are the years. Those are your twenty
best years of making money. I keep telling people that
unless you just came up with something that's really great
and it's it's sold.
Speaker 7 (03:40):
And so I think when people talk about you know,
it's talk about old school hard money lending, which is
kind of like an individual or several individuals lending to
where we are now and a lot of the lenders
in the industry, it's almost up the morning train.
Speaker 2 (03:51):
You a kick camp onod not that I'm trying to.
You want one? I know you do, Okay, I'll throw
you on. Here you go. We're throwing kick camp buzz
in the studio. What is this one? White chocolate? I
only like milk chocolate.
Speaker 5 (04:03):
Anybody could kick cut barcels.
Speaker 2 (04:05):
Now do you want white chocolate? All right, listen, bankers
can't be choosing. I meant white chocolate. Go ahead, I'm sorry.
So it's not really go ahead.
Speaker 5 (04:12):
But it's institutionalized.
Speaker 7 (04:14):
So now you know, if you look at private lending
and what people are surprised to find is some of
you know, what youth used to think of hard money lenders,
You may find that KKR or Blackstone or JP Morgan
is behind.
Speaker 2 (04:28):
Those White chocolate really sucks, It sucks horrible. No, it
really doesn't like milk chocolate. Okay, go ahead, I'm just
I'm just taking off.
Speaker 6 (04:39):
Yeah.
Speaker 7 (04:39):
No, But so it's gotten a lot more I would
say institutional in terms of who your investors are, and
then the firms that are doing it, they're actually going
a lot of these loans if you're talking about your
your standard fix and flip loans, not necessarily the bridge
loans and the true ground up construction loans, non bank loans,
but they're they're in funds, they're they're being securitized the
same way you securitize residential mortgage. It's much more sophisticated
(05:01):
industry than it was twenty years ago. And that's why
Wall Street saw an opportunity. There's a lot of money
in it, very high yield, how do they get into it?
So and that's where the industry is going.
Speaker 2 (05:12):
So how long did people look at hard money? Guys, though,
since you've been in it still look at it like
a street thing. When you first got in, it was
a street over on that one.
Speaker 7 (05:23):
Yeah, I mean we started in twenty seventeen. You know,
our partners, we have a business partner on it in
my firm. They've been doing it for a bit longer.
And I think when they started early on how it
was having that several years before that, So I think they.
Speaker 2 (05:38):
Were oneenty seventeen Street was off that.
Speaker 7 (05:40):
It's still in but it's not you know, I think
it was fading away. So you still have and you
still have a lot of guys out there. You know,
there's probably one hundred lenders in Massachusetts, right, and then
you've got very few kind of that. You know, you
have a top ten that are probably a little bit
more institutional, and you kind of have everybody else. And
you see some of the old school guys, kind of
people shying away from them, right, they're not lending to
(06:00):
so you hard.
Speaker 2 (06:02):
I'm sorry, I don't want to disrespect you.
Speaker 5 (06:03):
Ye, no, call what you want to call it.
Speaker 2 (06:05):
So you private lenders pay every month, okay, don't network
with other private lenders outside the state. That's just so
well to me. So just to hear where the markets are,
where the economy is going throughout the country.
Speaker 7 (06:17):
I mean, I know, you know, I know quite a
few that are out of the state. We speak to
other lenders in New York, other lenders. I speak to
other letters in the North area, in the Northeast. I
speak to groups in Miami. I speak to groups in
the West Coast. You know, we have the chat. I
also speak quite a bit with so what a lot
of lenders actually don't hold the loan. So a lot
(06:39):
of lenders out there, you'll be surprised to find that
you do a loan. And just like somebody does a
home mortgage and they get a home mortgage from whatever
local bank, and all of a sudden, US Bank is
sending them a mortgage statement. They're going, wait a second,
I thought I got it from Village Bank, and all
of a sudden, I'm getting a statement because their loan
was sold. And so the same way, a lot of
private lenders that are lending, they don't actually have the
(06:59):
capital make the loan, and they sell the loan. And
so then there's these large firms that are buying one
hundred million plus of loans around the country per year
at or per month, and so they're multi billion dollar firms.
Speaker 5 (07:10):
And so those guys that get on the phone with.
Speaker 7 (07:12):
The mortgage for call you guys mortgage less residential guys.
We don't deal with anything that's owner occupant. And so
there's a very fine line if you're dealing with owner occupants,
that's completely different industry.
Speaker 2 (07:24):
Well, I think you can't even touch it.
Speaker 5 (07:25):
You can't touch it. No, I wouldn't touch it because that.
Speaker 2 (07:27):
Guy called me that need to borrow money and said, sendey,
I'll put my house up. I said, dude, I can't.
I can't lean your private property that's long gone.
Speaker 7 (07:35):
And you don't want to do that, right and I
don't want to do that. And it's just almost like
a you know, it's not stuff we want to be
involved with.
Speaker 2 (07:40):
The hey bing you there is being still there. So
do you send out to hard money guys? Do you
prefer hard money guys business? And you're up in your
area in New Jersey, absolutely.
Speaker 6 (07:53):
Cindy Harmony guys.
Speaker 9 (07:55):
They've become an essential part of Lindy lending all the
way around.
Speaker 6 (07:59):
I mean, if you're in a real state.
Speaker 9 (08:00):
Industry, if you're truly in every facet of the roal
estate industry, you can't get by without having hard money
people and your rolodex.
Speaker 2 (08:08):
So he is and he's a mortgage broker, so he
is using guys like you, and it's just yeah, and.
Speaker 7 (08:12):
And some guys do calls. We're not dealing with homeowners,
We're dealing with developers. And so if I get a call,
it's more there's some mortgage brokers that deal with both
with homeowners and were there typically what I'm dealing with
because our projects are a little bit larger, are dealing
with professionals. They're more like commercial mortgage brokers as opposed
to resident and you too, Jonathan.
Speaker 9 (08:33):
Yeah, absolutely, Sindy commercial mortgage brokers.
Speaker 6 (08:37):
We do commercial mortgage lending.
Speaker 9 (08:38):
As well, so you know, but you know, these hard
money guys, once again, you got to look at they
have more of a risk appetite, appetite for risk. Then
let's say, are traditional of a bank, you know banks,
they have, they lend to everything, they do credit cards,
they do auto loans, they do everything. So their risk
advertise is just very, very small for any particular products.
(09:01):
Whereas if you do a deal with a hard money
guy that specializes in a certain thing, whether it's churches
or gas stations or a multifamily or whatever, their risk
advertising can be much larger than See how.
Speaker 2 (09:13):
That thought, don't go, don't go, just all that thought.
This is Sidney Stumbo Toughest Nails on WBZ News Radio
ten thirty.
Speaker 3 (09:18):
Would be right back, sponsored by Floor and Decorp, National
Lumber and Village Back.
Speaker 2 (09:34):
Good and welcome back to Sidney Stumpo Toughest Nails on
WBZ News Radio ten thirty. And we are here with.
Speaker 5 (09:46):
Lena Grello, Sean Kelly, Rand, Tyler Winder.
Speaker 2 (09:49):
Okay, now now that we all know who's here being
you still there, absolutely, Cindy and Bing. We're bringing you
in from where.
Speaker 6 (09:59):
I'm I'm an injury.
Speaker 2 (10:00):
No no, no, okay, but we're bringing you in from where.
Speaker 9 (10:06):
Oh I sorry. Chatter supposed to uh chattersppostal the io.
It is a great application and we get to speak
to real people in real time, like Cindy stumble Brand
called on the many others uh chatters. Social the io
allows you to just interact with people and have great conversations.
Speaker 2 (10:24):
Absolutely so his screen savings. See so these people are
listening right now to you people right Well, we couldn't
do that before. Was just radio, got it? Okay, So
everybody downloads social audio? Was it again? Chat of social audio,
and I'll send you invitations to get right in. Okay.
(10:44):
And this way when you're we can have our own
rooms doing things of this nature and teach other people
instead of just coming into the studio radio. It's pretty
pretty amazing. But on Twitter you never used that any
of that. See Boston doesn't know about this, guys, they
don't know Clubhouse. They don't know, Twitter, we don't have
this plane flying around Massachusetts going joint clubhouse. Join Twitter audio.
(11:08):
They don't know what. Everything's just the nightclub here, oh,
new restaurant. No, no, no, they don't know what. It's crazy.
It's such a on tap market up here. It's scary. Okay,
where were we, Jonathan? You were talking, weren't you?
Speaker 6 (11:21):
Yeah?
Speaker 9 (11:22):
I was just saying that that these hard money lenders,
private money lenders, they've become essential to the industry, you know.
And and as the major players are the banks, the
traditional banks are seeing this.
Speaker 6 (11:36):
They want a piece of it. They definitely want to
end on it.
Speaker 9 (11:39):
But once again, without if it wasn't for them, and
they're I guess their appetite for our risk.
Speaker 6 (11:45):
A lot of the projects that you guys are seeing
happening won't.
Speaker 9 (11:47):
It wouldn't happen without private money lenders.
Speaker 2 (11:51):
It's crazy because I've never used one. Is that crazy?
Speaker 5 (11:54):
And thirty eight is well, I think the other side
of it is because.
Speaker 2 (11:56):
Again my brain went to gangster that if you didn't
hey it, your legs and i'ms are gonnat not my
legs and i'ms are gonna get broken because that would
never happen. But that's what I thought back in the day, right,
like why are you going to those guys?
Speaker 4 (12:09):
No, to Seoun's point is it's just so much more
sophisticated than it was. But it's it's not just you
can't necessarily look at the.
Speaker 2 (12:14):
Hard Moe, not every guy, Nie and Marios.
Speaker 4 (12:17):
Oh exactly, thumb nurth end, We're all still there. But
you can't necessarily just look at the hard money of
the private lending just as a twelve percent interest in
two points. It's the creativity with everything. It's the how
quick can you close? And I would look at everything
as a developer, as a as a strictly cash on
cash ROI standpoint, if I'm bringing the say five or
(12:38):
ten percent less to go buy a project, that's money
I'm keeping in my pocket. My profit's going to go
down at the end because I am paying an extra
three points of interest in one point up front. But
that extra four percent is not it's it's worth it
every day of the week because I'm bringing ten percent
less on cash. So look at the hard money the
private lending is the creativity that you can get in
(12:59):
a job to maximize what you're trying to do with
your business.
Speaker 7 (13:02):
But I also say, I mean just talk about you know,
guy League Tyler on it that is not out there
going through MLS to buy a property. Right, he's finding something,
he's calling around, He's calling me and going, hey, I
got something that's out there.
Speaker 2 (13:15):
So most of your deals you're finding off market is
that we're.
Speaker 4 (13:17):
Doing probably seventy percent, right, So you're.
Speaker 2 (13:20):
Still counting on procus to bring your deal.
Speaker 4 (13:22):
So sure, there's always going to be the broker relationships
you are, you always going to have to have it.
Speaker 7 (13:26):
But he's not calling me up and saying, hey, I've
got this thing. Look up this listing on MLS. It's
listed for a million dollars. On buying it for a
million dollars, he's coming to me going, hey, look at
this one typically be sold for a million dollars.
Speaker 5 (13:38):
I've got it.
Speaker 7 (13:39):
I got to close in ten days though, because I
got it under for seven fifty and so, but I
can't get it for seven to fifty unless.
Speaker 5 (13:46):
I can close in ten days. And so what we're finding.
Speaker 2 (13:49):
You find that people give up two fifty to close
a deal right away. Huh.
Speaker 4 (13:53):
Now it's there's a different settiment out that.
Speaker 5 (13:57):
Was definitely prior.
Speaker 4 (13:58):
And there's so much equity out there in these properties,
so you're not really seeing that, are you seeing?
Speaker 2 (14:02):
Just because I think the end user's got a lot
of a lot brighter in the last five six years.
Speaker 4 (14:07):
They have, And it's easy to get brighter when you're
sitting on you know, a twelve percent increase of your
your home's value over the last two years, like, oh,
I have this much more cash in my pocket. I'm
a little bit more sophisticated. Look at what my house
value just did since I've been here. I mean, I mean,
look away, someone, how.
Speaker 2 (14:21):
Of that is brokeers going in and blowing smoke up
there behinds two. I'll pull you a million. I'll pull
you a million. Two, I'll pull you a million. Three.
Then they put the thought in the head and then
the reality number start coming at nine, nine to twenty five,
and then they have to swallow that.
Speaker 7 (14:34):
Not everybody, I mean a lot of it is. You know,
somebody's buying something at auction. You've got thirty days to close, right,
and a bank doesn't always meet that timeline. And so
if you want to buy something at auction or sight unseen,
you've got to get a private lender, right, Or if
you're buying something and then you just look at it.
Let's say you're buying a project of a developer that's
(14:55):
halfway through. No bank wants to touch it. Halfway through.
I might look at it and if I it's halfway through,
and I know the problem.
Speaker 2 (15:02):
We know the story, right. I had to take over
a job for a hard money guy in Rhode Island
in Newton. He called me up. He said, then I
need you, like, who are you? I mean you need me?
Who are you? Told me? The problem, I said, buddy,
touching touching that job is everything's coming down the studs.
If I don't bring down to the studs, I'm not
touching that job. Well, partyage, I don't care I partyage.
(15:24):
You see, plumbing, electrical is done. I'm not touching that job.
My name goes on it. So if you want me
to bail you out, I'll bail you out. Here's what
I didn't understand. Now Samantha ends up making him money.
He made money off it. What I didn't understand, Maybe
you can explain to me. I said to him, just
bring it up to auction and sold as is, and
there'll be some follow that comes along that's a handing
(15:45):
man type guy and will buy it for you know,
help his kids fix it and get in to the
finish line. He said, we can't take the hit on
the books right now. What do you mean by that?
I can't take the hit all my books right now.
Was he because had money, guy out of Rhode Island
and a good sized company by the way.
Speaker 5 (16:03):
Yeah, they're probably.
Speaker 7 (16:03):
I mean the issue is is if they auction it off,
they may have been upside down right.
Speaker 2 (16:08):
I think that was the set for a batim. I
can't take a hit on my books right now. I said, dude,
I don't think you're going to take a hit on
your books. I think you'll get out clean and you'll
make yourself a few hundred thousand covering all your expenses.
The guy hadn't paid interest in the year, blah blah blah,
even though I do. It had to go pour a
new foundation, take out the old slab. The guy had
no stone on the slab. The thing was thinking it
(16:31):
was a nightmare. But we made it all perfect for
him and he's still made money. But the remark was,
I can't take a hit on my books right now.
What did that mean? I didn't ask him. I didn't.
Speaker 5 (16:44):
I mean, I think of what he's saying is he's
just going to take a loss.
Speaker 2 (16:46):
Okay, I get that, But why I couldn't You couldn't
take it. I've got a board to answer to. I'm
assuming he's.
Speaker 7 (16:52):
Probably got a lot of and I don't know, he's
got investors, he's got to do his reporting. He doesn't
want to go out and report. Maybe he has a
bunch of projects going wrong at the same time.
Speaker 5 (17:01):
Maybe it's Q three.
Speaker 4 (17:02):
You have to wait to offload it in Q one
of next year to get it off of this cycle,
like yeah.
Speaker 5 (17:06):
A million.
Speaker 7 (17:06):
So it could be, you know, could be it might
not be his money, right, I mean, and I think
that's the idea. If you're if you're lending on it correct, right,
and you're doing it, you're diversifying across seventy to one
hundred projects, you're in on there somewhere under seventy sixty
five seventy percent of you know ARV so after renovated value,
(17:27):
and so you're hoping you've got enough margin in there
that when things.
Speaker 5 (17:29):
Go wrong, hey, the developer you know, might be coming out.
Speaker 2 (17:33):
Well, when I saw the spreadsheet, he over gave on
every line at them, but no one came out to do.
Let's put our eyes on that foundation. Let's put our
eyes on the hole. Let's put our eyes on the drainage.
There's no drainage a site where I mean it was.
Speaker 5 (17:50):
It just permitted.
Speaker 2 (17:51):
It passed again. You can put the drainage in. I
can ask you for the number my line atom number
two for drainage if you don't come and inspect to
see if I dropped the drainagen. He thought all this
was done, only to find out none of it was done.
So it came out to do the site business was
falling asleep behind the wheel. Follow me, yep, okay, So yeah,
(18:12):
the city passed the foundation because the stone goes in afterwards.
I put my stone in first. Right when the footings
go in, we pile it in with stone. Foundation goes up.
He didn't do that again. It wasn't a good builder.
But the point was, My point was when he said
to me, I can't take the hit right now. That
means he's answering to a group of guys. Maybe he
(18:34):
approved the law. Whatever he seemed to be.
Speaker 7 (18:36):
The seal probably has I mean, I no idea where
they are. I mean, whether it's a big group that
has a fund or you know, maybe it's one individual
investor that was in that particular long.
Speaker 2 (18:45):
Well, like I just said, maybe he didn't want to
take a hit on that. Whatever, it turned out well
for him. But when I got the call, I was like, Sin,
I need you, and I'm like, and you are like,
I want to introduce yourself, buddy, Like who are you?
Speaker 4 (18:58):
Well, you talked about a couple of things. Is over leverage,
and there's over leverage on the banking side as well.
So they're over leveraged by lion item ten because they
went eight percent higher on each line item giving the
draw to the developer. Now all of a sudden, they're
so far behind and they're they're digging themselves out of
a grave.
Speaker 2 (19:17):
Okay, we're gonna go after break, but I want the
next I went to be about we have this economy
you think is going Okay, guys, okay, perfect, Okay. This
is Sidney Stumbley. Listened Toughness Nails and we'll be right back.
Speaker 3 (19:28):
Sponsored by Pillow Windows of Boston, Next Day Molding and
Kennedy Carpet.
Speaker 2 (19:58):
Hey, welcome back to Toughest it's on WBZ News Radio tenth.
Right now, I'm Sydney Stumpo and we're here with again.
Speaker 7 (20:05):
Lena Grillo and Sean Kelly Wren okay, and Tyler Winder.
Speaker 2 (20:09):
Right, guys, let's get to hot questions. Where's this market going? Well,
do you think it's going? Yeah, let's let's talk about
the housing market, the economy, let's go, we'll cover it all,
but right now, the housing market.
Speaker 5 (20:19):
Let's talk about So what impacts the housing market?
Speaker 6 (20:22):
Right?
Speaker 7 (20:22):
So, what's going to impact prices? Well, let's look at
two things. One, if people have the jobs and the
income to pay and buy the house, and so look
at the job market. And then you want to look
at the supply right so right now, and so prices
are determined by supply and demand quite obviously, right So
supply right now is very low.
Speaker 5 (20:38):
Right, it's impossible to build.
Speaker 7 (20:40):
You'll it's very difficult to build new supply in Massachusetts.
It's you can talk to any builder out there, and Cindy,
I'm sure that you let him know on a constant
basis how much red tape and how hard is to build,
and Tyler can talk about that. So supply is very restricted.
So that's good for holding house prices high. Now let's
talk about demand. So demand, I think what worse seeing
(21:00):
and we're a little bit worried about, is what we
talked about before, is Hey, the end consumer isn't doing
as well as they were doing a couple of years ago,
and it's starting to show up.
Speaker 6 (21:09):
Right.
Speaker 7 (21:09):
Jobs numbers were revised downwards. It was a big hit.
I think the Fed is looking at those things and saying, hey,
this job market isn't so great. Delinquency is arising on autos,
consumer and a student loans and so now and then
on the edges on the mortgage market, and so that
doesn't look good for the economy. How bad is it
going to get? I don't know, but I don't think.
(21:30):
I think it's going to get worse before it gets better.
Speaker 2 (21:33):
Bang you theah, Okay, did you hear what he just said?
Speaker 6 (21:38):
I know it is little.
Speaker 2 (21:42):
We're talking about the economy that we think we're going
to hit. What a recession in real estate market?
Speaker 7 (21:48):
I think it's going I think it's getting worse. I
don't think it's going horrible immediately, but I don't think
it's going to be as healthy as it was.
Speaker 2 (21:54):
If we all had to make a call for the
next six months. John, make the call for the next
six months months from today.
Speaker 6 (22:02):
I think we're gonna be fine.
Speaker 9 (22:03):
I'm sorry, I just you know, I think the stock
market is gonna take a little hit, but I think
we're gonna be fine. On the real estate, I think,
you know, right now, guys, we just don't have enough
inventory out there.
Speaker 5 (22:13):
Yeah, we don't.
Speaker 6 (22:14):
We don't. There's not enough inventory.
Speaker 2 (22:15):
Remember he's in the northeast too. There's a whole country
out there, guys, whole country are going.
Speaker 6 (22:22):
Well, you're right in my area. People are still bid.
It's like forty fifty people are still being in the house.
And that one house has went for two hundred forty
thousand dollars.
Speaker 9 (22:29):
Over asking price. Uh and that's a six hundred thousand
dollars house, you know. Uh, And it's an expensive house.
Speaker 6 (22:36):
You know.
Speaker 9 (22:36):
It's people are still fighting, people coming from New York still.
Speaker 6 (22:38):
Trying to get these properties.
Speaker 9 (22:40):
But once again, there's still is a housing shortage. Now
some areas of the country, you know, there may be
some kind of slow down, but right now we don't
have the inventory.
Speaker 6 (22:47):
And with the race going down, people are.
Speaker 9 (22:50):
Gonna get with another one hundred and fifty thousand dollars
in buying power.
Speaker 2 (22:53):
You know, dang thing. You know you're talking about a price,
but hold on, back it down for it, forgive me,
give me a chance here. You talk about a price
range that anywhere in the Northeast and in popular areas
like we all live. Okay, that's a that's a nothing number,
meaning there will be twenty offers on there. Now. Start
to talk to me about the million five to three
and a half million price range of brand new construction.
(23:16):
Have you seen a slow down in Jersey?
Speaker 9 (23:20):
Yeah, well, Cindy, no, because we have the New York
we're sandwich in between New York and Philadelphia. Okay, then
we have the Delaware markets, so we're unique in that regard.
We have we're sandwiched in between two major, major metropolitan
areas where people are where New York is getting so
expensive to live over there, they're coming over to the Jersey.
They're driving the prices up. That's why you know the
(23:42):
house was out right right outside of New York City.
You know, it was six hundred and seventy thousand dollars.
They wound up be in the quarter million dollars above
two hundred and forty thousand miles above asking price and
paid for cash. So you know, once again, I probably
won't be the right person to ask in terms of that.
Speaker 6 (23:57):
For Cindy, what I will say is this that.
Speaker 2 (23:59):
He's right, Northeast doesn't take a beatdown. I said, you're right,
the Northeast never takes the beatdown, but we slow down
in a way. But we didn't take a beat down.
Speaker 7 (24:12):
And I don't clarify that, right, So I don't think
so if you look today inventory, so if you look
at cross market, right, So we talked about supply and demand, right,
Supply very hard in the Northeast.
Speaker 5 (24:22):
I completely agree with that. Very hard to build.
Speaker 7 (24:24):
And if homeowners consumers are out there and they want
prices to come down, well, it's all about building more product, right.
So it's if you can't build, and you can't build
at scale, it's very hard to bring those prices down, right.
So that's the impact, right. We have very restrictive zoning laws,
we have very restrictive permitting. It's hard to build, so
(24:45):
therefore supply is fairly restricted. Go down to the southeast
and southwest and you go look at a market like Austin,
which we tend to follow. And you say, oh, wait
a second, their home prices are down four percent. What's
that's driven by a year of year four percent?
Speaker 5 (24:59):
Why?
Speaker 7 (25:00):
Well, supply is building up. And then if you go
and look at the inventory, you see a spike. Go
down to Florida. You're seeing a spike in inventory in Florida.
So that's up massively across Florida and that's all major markets.
There's an inventory spike.
Speaker 5 (25:11):
What is that?
Speaker 7 (25:12):
Then when you have inventory and lots of inventory out
there and consumers have lots of choice, prices start to
come down. So I think you're going to see in
those markets where you have inventory spike prices to come down.
I think in the Northeast what you'll have to see
in order for prices to come down, right, And I'm
not talking about massive right. I don't think that we're
going to get something like the last financial crishis. But
if you want a moderation of prices, that's not going
(25:33):
to come from the supply side because it's so hard
to build. Where you're going to see that come from
is the demand side. So what is that talking about?
Speaker 6 (25:38):
Jobs?
Speaker 5 (25:39):
Right?
Speaker 7 (25:39):
So if tech companies start laying off if biotech companies
start laying off, then you're going to start to see, well, okay,
is it your Lexington Newton home that was on the
mid range of somebody who was in middle management at
one of those firms, and you've got less bidders out there. Now,
you still have plenty of other industries in the Boston market, right,
You have lots of a kind of variety of jobs
(26:00):
in the economy. But I think you're going to start
to see some of the pressure come off. And how
are you going to see that?
Speaker 6 (26:05):
Right?
Speaker 7 (26:05):
So you're talking about big averages, and we talked about it.
You know, prices are up four percent year every year
in Boston, they're down four percent year every year in Austin, Texas. Well,
that's hiding behind it that some prices might be stagnant,
some prices might be up ten to twenty percent, right,
because we're talking about averages, and I think what we're
going to we're starting to see already is that we're
starting to see a lot of the prices for things that.
Speaker 5 (26:27):
Are on the margins.
Speaker 6 (26:28):
Right.
Speaker 7 (26:28):
So if you build a good product, it still flies
off the shelf, right, and you price it appropriately. But
I think if you're building a product out there that's subpar,
and two years ago somebody would have bought it just
because they wanted to get in the market and would
fly off the shelf. That's not selling anymore. That's sitting,
and that price is coming down if it's still I.
Speaker 6 (26:47):
Hear you saying, I agree.
Speaker 2 (26:48):
So let me give you a for instance. Right everybody says,
oh coach, you stumpo. They don't get hurt off there.
They're in their only little niche market. Right now, I
just put a house on an agreement for not a
bit lot thirty thousand square. For the lot ten million. Now,
I could have pulled twelve five. I know I could
pull twelve five for that house, maybe thirteen if I
take it to the end. Burn the hand right now.
(27:10):
To me, I know the profit margin I'm we make
off it. You don't get greedy in my business because
little pigs get what grow and big pigs get Thank you, Ross.
There's my producer with his little stupid camera coming at me,
his little clock machine. But so I'm opted to take
I'm doing the deal of that number, even though I'm
gonna leave. I know I'm leaving two million dollar the
(27:31):
table because my gut tells me move that now, move
that one. Now. We got enough, We've got enough land
that we have others to build that one. I'm just
gonna let it slide out.
Speaker 6 (27:44):
Well.
Speaker 5 (27:44):
The other thing is there's just so much on something.
Speaker 2 (27:45):
I'm going on my gut feeling, and my gut feeling
has never taken me down the wrong path.
Speaker 4 (27:49):
Yeah, yeah, And there's just uncertainty right now.
Speaker 5 (27:51):
Like that I was.
Speaker 4 (27:51):
I just had a two family new construction locked up
in Cambridge, got it to perman and got everything ready.
You look at the numbers, maybe it's a seven figure
deal if you bring it from start to finish in
eighteen months. Eighteen months is a much different market that
it is right now. I had another developer come through.
He offered me about a two hundred and fifty thousand
assignment fee. So you look at it and say, all right,
do you take a seven figure profit in eighteen months
(28:12):
with all the different variables of all the red tape,
you have to go through the elections coming up with
interest rates, where's everything going? Or do you take this
now at what percent of a projected outcome at the end?
Speaker 2 (28:23):
Correct?
Speaker 4 (28:23):
At what percent are you going to take the cash now,
walk away, clap their hand whenever they get there, and
just ignore the headaches onto the next one.
Speaker 2 (28:31):
As as end users that want to sell their homes
and they can make three four one thousand and two
hundred two point fifty one eighty maybe even more than that, right,
they're like, what do I do, Cindy, Well, are you
going to go? Well, that's the problem. So you're going
to sell high and you're going to buy high. So
that doesn't work. That was a dumb move. Sell high,
go rent something. But even rentserr up everywhere, right, So
(28:52):
it's kind of like everybody's kind of stuck right now. Well,
and we also want to sell it and make the money,
but they don't want to go rent or they So
everybody's kind of like a in a struggle where I
see this that people call me saying, can you give
me your advice? Cindy? I can't. What's good for you
and your family? Right now? You're in a home you
(29:15):
can afford. The mortgage is so low. Yeah, I know
you can make four thousand, and you should have taken
a line on that maybe two years ago, borrowed against it,
and then you'd be paying two three percent right, But again,
who was thinking? Who was thinking to do that? I
didn't even do that. I should have taken a line
on my own hose.
Speaker 4 (29:33):
Well that's the other thing making the money, But I
should have That's the other thing we're saying on the
inventory crisis is it's not only the fact that we
can't build enough product to compete with buyer demand. It's
the fact that interest rates went to nothing and now
all of these these homeowners are sitting with a massive
pot of all.
Speaker 2 (29:50):
That I thought I got to go to break. He's
waving and I'm Sidney stumpoed he lives in too of
his nails on WBZ News Radio Temp They will.
Speaker 3 (29:56):
Be right back, sponsored by new Brook Realty Group, Boston,
would Smaller Insurance, World Auto Body and Tosca Drive Autobody
Nobody Wait.
Speaker 2 (30:17):
And welcome back to Toups Nails on WBZ News Radio
tent Thor And I'm City Stumpo and we are here
with Lena.
Speaker 5 (30:23):
Grillo, Sean Kelly, Rand, Tyler Winder.
Speaker 2 (30:27):
And Jonathan Where are you from? Not just New Jersey?
Where are you coming from from?
Speaker 9 (30:32):
Chatter social io is a social audio visual app that
allows people to interact in real time and actually speaking
each other in real time.
Speaker 2 (30:41):
And we are doing that right now. And we're doing
that right now from my iHeartMedia studio, and we're zooming
in from all over the place. People on here are
from all over the country and outside of the country.
And I can scroll up screensave and look at their
faces and see who's online. It's pretty awesome. It's the visual,
it's the video blows away Twitter and any of the others. Okay,
(31:04):
go back where were we? Does anybody remember I'm having
a metapuse moment.
Speaker 5 (31:09):
And then got cut off because he was talking about
supply pick it up.
Speaker 4 (31:13):
You just started seeing my ears pop up like the
rabbit in the in the hunting shows. But no, you
start talking looking at inventory crisis. That's what's ultimately going
to dictate everything, and we can't build enough product to
keep up with the buying demand. But the other thing
is we dropped interest rates down.
Speaker 2 (31:27):
The president built three million homes in four years? Was
that and a president? Any president three million homes in
four years? No, there'say, And we're talking to builders right.
Speaker 5 (31:37):
Yeah, Okay, it's not happening.
Speaker 4 (31:40):
But the other thing out there, that's that's extremely weighed
down on the inventory. Is when the interest rates went
down to nothing. These homeowners were sitting on so much
equity in their homes with nowhere to go. But not
only that is we might be sitting there in a
high twos mid twos interest rate, and they're going to
see if I'm going to get the exact same home
taking four hundred thousand of equity upgrading, going to be
paying significantly more for the same cost borrowed, and it
(32:04):
just it handcuffs these homeowners. So it just makes it
extremely difficult for the mistakes, the mistakes that the you know,
economists did when everything got dropped.
Speaker 2 (32:13):
Go back to those words, Jonathan, did you hear the
words he used?
Speaker 6 (32:18):
Handcuffed?
Speaker 2 (32:19):
Where'd we hear that from?
Speaker 6 (32:22):
You said that? We've always sad, I.
Speaker 2 (32:24):
Mean we no, we only heard one person say that
word handcuff last night. That was two nights ago. Who
was that gz okay, I yeah, I've never I've never
heard those words. I don't use those words handcuffed. I've
never us those words. Pretty fun that use those words.
Go ahead, finish, I want Jonathan to listen.
Speaker 4 (32:42):
Yeah, So I mean it's I mean, that's that's pretty
much the end of the conversation with that. So, I mean,
inventory crisis is going to remain unless some serious serious
changes happen in terms of building, zoning code and obviously
you know interest rates where it's not going to handcuff
these home sellers where they can go move put their
head back on the market and bring up the inventory.
Speaker 7 (33:02):
And I think nothing in the Northeast is going to
change in terms of bringing significant inventory anytime soon.
Speaker 2 (33:08):
Right, So that's impossible.
Speaker 7 (33:09):
So you know, even if you made major changes to
are permitting and zoning, it takes so long to permit
a project that but.
Speaker 2 (33:18):
It's not happening as much as stuff is getting built
in Florida. So it still takes two years, three years,
sure in certain areas of Florida two to keep permitting everything.
But I think you're gonna have a lot to pick
from down there. Yeah, and that's there.
Speaker 7 (33:30):
Comes and watch the prices, watch the price down, Watch
the prices in Florida, watch the prices in Texas, watch
the prices in you know all kind of the arizonas
those Southwest markets where it's easy to build and easy
to bring supply to market. Watch the prices, right, I
think they're gonna come down. I think you're gonna see
the as soon as you see those inventory numbers start
(33:51):
to spike, kind of wait a few months and you'll
start to see the prices come down again.
Speaker 4 (33:55):
And when you're saying the inventory low in the markets
like we are in the Boston market, it's it's it's
recession resistant. Nothing's a recession proof in this world, but
recession resistant where regardless what's going on, we're still having
you know, these buyers come through and buying property because
the inventory is remaining so low. At the end of
the day.
Speaker 2 (34:12):
Now, you know what the greatest part of today was
having Lena in the studio the whole day because she's
learned so much, because her and Chat have been coming
to me going what if we go build teenie homes
up here and be Airbnb's here in this there because
they did not fall on the economics. Now this will
trigger her brain to maybe fallow the economics better. See.
(34:32):
Part of this is teaching this next generation financial literacy
why deals do make sense certain areas and why they
don't make sense in other areas. We're not just one big,
happy country. It's just not We're not like that. It's
just not what it is. We pull stronger numbers up here,
then over here they're pulling weaker numbers. And then you
talk about the West Coast and you talk about Texas
(34:53):
and you talk about Arizona, Aspen. We can go to Utah.
Look the numbers in Utah right now for ski and
ski out. Look at Aspen's numbers. Crazy, go to Hamptons, Nantucket,
the Vineyard. We could start naming all different areas, but again,
pocket areas. There's still a big country out there.
Speaker 8 (35:08):
I think we're also just scared to kind of make
that big of a move out here. I feel like
starting small and starting the tiny home and the rentals
would get us there faster, and yeah, get our feet
under I mean.
Speaker 2 (35:28):
You gave you advice if you first buy a house
to yourself, a two.
Speaker 8 (35:31):
Family or a three family, Well, yes, but that is
such a big investment, especially out here.
Speaker 2 (35:38):
Correct, But guess what investment Here's what your generation doesn't understand.
It's a big investment here, and it's a bigger return here.
It's a less investment here with a much lesser return here.
Plus your asset is more secure here than if I
stick in some state over here. Yeah, here's the difference.
(35:58):
I just gave you three things. Yeah, anymore might have
put down, But the chance of your assets staying stronger
here is much stronger than if I stick you in
Texas and your return is going to be greater here.
What the late of your money.
Speaker 8 (36:15):
In a tourist state where it's.
Speaker 2 (36:18):
People go back to hotels? Does they want to talk
about the airbnbs, how they're doing so well right now?
They're not?
Speaker 5 (36:23):
I mean, we're not.
Speaker 7 (36:24):
I mean, see, we already know. You know some hotels aren't.
You know, there are some hotels that are doing great,
there's some hotels that aren't. I think airbnbs, I'm mean,
I think people are relying on air being and there's
still some airbnbs that do extraordinarily well. And I know
people that run airbn pockets areas in pocket areas, and
I think that what we talk about is getting the
segment right right. And so I think if you're talking
about oversaturated markets with airbnbs, when the economy slows down
(36:48):
and there's less jobs, the first thing that gets cut
from people's budgets vacations, and so that.
Speaker 5 (36:54):
Starts to hurt.
Speaker 7 (36:55):
And so something that was looking really good one year
is not looking so good the next year.
Speaker 2 (36:59):
And this, and here in lies the problem. Nobody's teaching
twenty something year old and even in their early thirties.
We've all had a self teach ourselves. I had no
one teaching me this. I've been doing this for thirty
eight years. I had to self learn all of this.
Who taught you this? You learn all this at your
fancy school that you went to.
Speaker 5 (37:18):
No, it was a self taught.
Speaker 7 (37:19):
My mother was a real estate broker sold for closures
in the nineties. I was calling an amazing college.
Speaker 5 (37:24):
Yeah, I went to university and then grad school.
Speaker 2 (37:27):
So okay, grade schools, But would you learn it on
job experience?
Speaker 5 (37:31):
Job?
Speaker 4 (37:31):
Would you learn it getting into it? I didn't know
what a colonial was eight years ago.
Speaker 2 (37:36):
Okay against the traditional the modern.
Speaker 4 (37:38):
Yeah, a little bit different like beforehand those out here.
But yeah, you have to learn through osmosis, throw your
feet and get.
Speaker 2 (37:46):
In the game so right, or have somebody that can
teach you the right way. And there lies the problem
we're all. I tried my hardest to get on social
audio and try to explain to people the pig headed,
they're stubborn, they don't want to listen. They think they
know more, They don't know more. You can't do this
for thirty eight years and challenge somebody that's been doing
(38:07):
something for so many decades and still standing. But unless
sometimes it's easier. That's my point of being on social
audio for other kids. I always say take my kids.
I'll give you my kids. You know what I'm saying,
except I'm kind of a young mom that no one
else has kids my kids age. People my age have
kids that are still younger, right, So I can't like
(38:29):
trade them off and say, Okay, I'll take your kids,
you take my kids. Because sometimes kids will learn from
another person to listen to you more than they'll listen
to me. I might have more knowledge than you in
the field, you might have more more office knowledge than me,
or numbers, doesn't matter. But I think the point is
if we don't teach the next generation coming up, that's
a major problem. So I thought when I go on
(38:51):
to social audio by accident, there was a reason for
me to go on there. And I can't get these
people to listen because they rather listen to somebody that
is just starts it off like this. Well, you know,
I was abused when I was ten, but I'm gonna
teach you how to make a million dollars a year?
Like what is wrong with you? People like do you do?
(39:12):
You have to lead in with that to like it's
crazy if you haven't been traumatized and drama to a
point of no return. And then they go in with
a I'm gonna teach horw to make a million dollars
a year. I'm on the free trying to explain to people. No, no,
So I'm glad whatever people got in from. Chatta got
to listen to this whole day because there's a lot
to take in. But this is everything we talk about.
(39:36):
Would I like to talk about on social audio teaching
another young person how to get in the game and
do it right?
Speaker 4 (39:43):
Well, the problem is that Lena just brings up, you know, airbnbs.
If you go google airbnbs and click on five different
things and then go onto Instagram, you're gonna get blasted
by six different you know, you know Zuckerberg get hit
the market, and you're gonna get all of these these
Instagram gurus who were telling you, oh, you're gonna make
all this money. I made seven figures in my first
(40:05):
month because there's all these different quote unquote people that
you don't want to follow, So you have to do
your research on which which social media influencers do you
I actually want to follow and make sure that I'm
following the right steps all the way through.
Speaker 8 (40:18):
Boom.
Speaker 2 (40:18):
Hold that thought and we're going to break. It's the
city stumboard to have his dales on w he is
the news radio.
Speaker 5 (40:27):
We're gonna wake up in the love and the sunlight hurts.
Speaker 2 (40:34):
My carave good night has finally come to an end.
Tyler Sean, thank you for coming into the studio. Angelina,
thank you for co hosting with me tonight. I appreciate
all the help. How do people reach you, guys, all
of you, Lena, how do people reach you?
Speaker 8 (40:50):
Clauses by Angelina that's my email.
Speaker 2 (40:53):
Yeah, clause it by Angelina, Clauses by Design Boston, Okay, good.
Speaker 4 (40:58):
John, Kelly rand You can find me on LinkedIn and
Tyler Wender most prominent on LinkedIn, last Mwnder on Instagram.
You can follow the company at TB Winder or for
a little bit more insight on the day to day
of what it looks like what we're doing, mister underscore
Winder and.
Speaker 2 (41:14):
If you want to keep this conversation going, say nights,
I will be on Shadow Social Audio. You can download it,
reach out to me and I'll send you an invite. Everybody,
have a great, safe weekend and we'll see you next weekend. Bye.
For thirty five years, Cindy Stumpo has been a female
home builder with a passion for design, a mastery of detail,
and a commitment to her crack. With daughter Samantha Stumpo
by her side.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
I don't need the whole family on a date with me.
That's a good note. It's godymn weird.
Speaker 3 (00:13):
See.
Speaker 1 (00:13):
Stumpo Development is the only second generation female construction company
in the country.
Speaker 4 (00:18):
You're crazy, You're a wacko.
Speaker 5 (00:19):
You're insane.
Speaker 3 (00:22):
I mean, it just doesn't end together.
Speaker 1 (00:23):
Cindy and Samantha welcome guests to explore the world of construction,
real estate, development, design and more.
Speaker 6 (00:30):
Unpredictable.
Speaker 3 (00:31):
Every time I think I know what you want, you
just switch it out.
Speaker 6 (00:33):
But that's what makes your houses.
Speaker 1 (00:34):
All your day. Discuss anything that happens between the roof
and the foundation. Nothing is off limits. You truly do
care about everybody. She can yell at chicken screen, but
when you get her alone, she's the best person on
the planet. Cindy Stumpo is tough as nails.
Speaker 2 (00:52):
And welcome to Cidy Stumpo Toughest Nails on w Z
News Radio ten thirty. Our guests tonight are.
Speaker 7 (00:57):
Lena Grillo, Sean, Kelly Rand, Tyler Angelina, what do you do?
Speaker 8 (01:01):
I'm a closet designer for a clause is by Design
in Boston.
Speaker 5 (01:05):
I'm Tyler Wender.
Speaker 4 (01:06):
I'm a developer and on a real estate brokerage out
here in Boston.
Speaker 2 (01:09):
Okay, and missus my pians.
Speaker 7 (01:11):
Come on, John Kelly Wren, the already advisors, so private
lender in Boston.
Speaker 2 (01:17):
Okay. So just a little short history. Just everybody give
what they do. We understand what lean it does, we
understand what I do. What makes you so good at
hard money lending? Just give me a little bit?
Speaker 5 (01:28):
Call it private lending, private credit?
Speaker 2 (01:29):
What if you want to call it? Wait, what's the
proper you call it? Anything you want to call it.
Speaker 7 (01:32):
Let's talk about you know why we do it? How
do we get into it? And you know we've been
doing it now?
Speaker 2 (01:37):
First of all, I want to know your proper name,
John Kelly w Rean. No, I don't. What do I
get that? Are you guys still considered hard money lending?
Guys London guys? Oh what lending lending? I don't lending.
Speaker 5 (01:50):
I don't think of myself as a hard money lender.
Speaker 2 (01:52):
I think of us you know, Oh, you're just trying
to put a more professional name over your heads.
Speaker 7 (01:57):
No, but I think it's something different. Right, I'm running
a private credit fund. I think of hard money lending
is a very old school.
Speaker 2 (02:04):
No way I'm doing it hard money lending. Guys, we're
definitely gangsters back in the days.
Speaker 5 (02:09):
Not a gangster.
Speaker 2 (02:10):
Okay, So let's go where it started. It was street money.
Speaker 5 (02:13):
But and this isn't street.
Speaker 2 (02:15):
Street money to hard money lending. And now you're.
Speaker 7 (02:20):
Call it private credit, private credit, well, private credit on
the side, from the investors side, from the borrower side,
it's private lending.
Speaker 5 (02:27):
What do you call it? What would tyler? What do
you call it?
Speaker 2 (02:29):
You guys are still hard money.
Speaker 5 (02:30):
It was a client private lending.
Speaker 4 (02:31):
If I'm going to go do a cosmetic fix and flip,
I'm gonna go get hard money for a five six
month loan. Yeah, the industry is private lending. It's it's
non bank lender.
Speaker 2 (02:39):
I mean, it's that like stock broke, as they went
from stockbrokers to financial advisors to wealth advisors.
Speaker 5 (02:44):
What is Blackstone?
Speaker 7 (02:45):
Blackstone runs, you know, a private credit fund that lends
to other private credit funds, and they're you wouldn't hard money.
Speaker 5 (02:52):
You don't call them a hard money lender, right?
Speaker 2 (02:54):
Right?
Speaker 7 (02:54):
Why why don't you call them a hard money lender.
It's a senior loan on a piece of property and
it's non bank.
Speaker 5 (02:58):
What's the difference?
Speaker 7 (02:59):
Good point taken right, And that's what we are. We're
seeing your loan on a property non bank.
Speaker 2 (03:04):
Are you ever going to get to that level?
Speaker 5 (03:06):
Yeah? You will, yeah, maybe in a blackstone, but I
think we're gonna we'll hit a billion.
Speaker 2 (03:10):
You'll hit a billion, ye, So goals to hit a
billion buy.
Speaker 5 (03:13):
It's probably about ten years, ten years.
Speaker 2 (03:16):
Oh yeah, yeah, y'll be dead. Ten years sounds like
a long time away. No for me, it sounds like
a very short time a way. For you guys, that's
when you should be coming to your project.
Speaker 5 (03:25):
And I think we're that's not actually true.
Speaker 2 (03:27):
You howled in forty five, Oh yeah, fifty five, Yeah,
forty five to fifty five, great years. Thirty five to
fifty five, those are the years. Those are your twenty
best years of making money. I keep telling people that
unless you just came up with something that's really great
and it's it's sold.
Speaker 7 (03:40):
And so I think when people talk about you know,
it's talk about old school hard money lending, which is
kind of like an individual or several individuals lending to
where we are now and a lot of the lenders
in the industry, it's almost up the morning train.
Speaker 2 (03:51):
You a kick camp onod not that I'm trying to.
You want one? I know you do, Okay, I'll throw
you on. Here you go. We're throwing kick camp buzz
in the studio. What is this one? White chocolate? I
only like milk chocolate.
Speaker 5 (04:03):
Anybody could kick cut barcels.
Speaker 2 (04:05):
Now do you want white chocolate? All right, listen, bankers
can't be choosing. I meant white chocolate. Go ahead, I'm sorry.
So it's not really go ahead.
Speaker 5 (04:12):
But it's institutionalized.
Speaker 7 (04:14):
So now you know, if you look at private lending
and what people are surprised to find is some of
you know, what youth used to think of hard money lenders,
You may find that KKR or Blackstone or JP Morgan
is behind.
Speaker 2 (04:28):
Those White chocolate really sucks, It sucks horrible. No, it
really doesn't like milk chocolate. Okay, go ahead, I'm just
I'm just taking off.
Speaker 6 (04:39):
Yeah.
Speaker 7 (04:39):
No, But so it's gotten a lot more I would
say institutional in terms of who your investors are, and
then the firms that are doing it, they're actually going
a lot of these loans if you're talking about your
your standard fix and flip loans, not necessarily the bridge
loans and the true ground up construction loans, non bank loans,
but they're they're in funds, they're they're being securitized the
same way you securitize residential mortgage. It's much more sophisticated
(05:01):
industry than it was twenty years ago. And that's why
Wall Street saw an opportunity. There's a lot of money
in it, very high yield, how do they get into it?
So and that's where the industry is going.
Speaker 2 (05:12):
So how long did people look at hard money? Guys, though,
since you've been in it still look at it like
a street thing. When you first got in, it was
a street over on that one.
Speaker 7 (05:23):
Yeah, I mean we started in twenty seventeen. You know,
our partners, we have a business partner on it in
my firm. They've been doing it for a bit longer.
And I think when they started early on how it
was having that several years before that, So I think they.
Speaker 2 (05:38):
Were oneenty seventeen Street was off that.
Speaker 7 (05:40):
It's still in but it's not you know, I think
it was fading away. So you still have and you
still have a lot of guys out there. You know,
there's probably one hundred lenders in Massachusetts, right, and then
you've got very few kind of that. You know, you
have a top ten that are probably a little bit
more institutional, and you kind of have everybody else. And
you see some of the old school guys, kind of
people shying away from them, right, they're not lending to
(06:00):
so you hard.
Speaker 2 (06:02):
I'm sorry, I don't want to disrespect you.
Speaker 5 (06:03):
Ye, no, call what you want to call it.
Speaker 2 (06:05):
So you private lenders pay every month, okay, don't network
with other private lenders outside the state. That's just so
well to me. So just to hear where the markets are,
where the economy is going throughout the country.
Speaker 7 (06:17):
I mean, I know, you know, I know quite a
few that are out of the state. We speak to
other lenders in New York, other lenders. I speak to
other letters in the North area, in the Northeast. I
speak to groups in Miami. I speak to groups in
the West Coast. You know, we have the chat. I
also speak quite a bit with so what a lot
of lenders actually don't hold the loan. So a lot
(06:39):
of lenders out there, you'll be surprised to find that
you do a loan. And just like somebody does a
home mortgage and they get a home mortgage from whatever
local bank, and all of a sudden, US Bank is
sending them a mortgage statement. They're going, wait a second,
I thought I got it from Village Bank, and all
of a sudden, I'm getting a statement because their loan
was sold. And so the same way, a lot of
private lenders that are lending, they don't actually have the
(06:59):
capital make the loan, and they sell the loan. And
so then there's these large firms that are buying one
hundred million plus of loans around the country per year
at or per month, and so they're multi billion dollar firms.
Speaker 5 (07:10):
And so those guys that get on the phone with.
Speaker 7 (07:12):
The mortgage for call you guys mortgage less residential guys.
We don't deal with anything that's owner occupant. And so
there's a very fine line if you're dealing with owner occupants,
that's completely different industry.
Speaker 2 (07:24):
Well, I think you can't even touch it.
Speaker 5 (07:25):
You can't touch it. No, I wouldn't touch it because that.
Speaker 2 (07:27):
Guy called me that need to borrow money and said, sendey,
I'll put my house up. I said, dude, I can't.
I can't lean your private property that's long gone.
Speaker 7 (07:35):
And you don't want to do that, right and I
don't want to do that. And it's just almost like
a you know, it's not stuff we want to be
involved with.
Speaker 2 (07:40):
The hey bing you there is being still there. So
do you send out to hard money guys? Do you
prefer hard money guys business? And you're up in your
area in New Jersey, absolutely.
Speaker 6 (07:53):
Cindy Harmony guys.
Speaker 9 (07:55):
They've become an essential part of Lindy lending all the
way around.
Speaker 6 (07:59):
I mean, if you're in a real state.
Speaker 9 (08:00):
Industry, if you're truly in every facet of the roal
estate industry, you can't get by without having hard money
people and your rolodex.
Speaker 2 (08:08):
So he is and he's a mortgage broker, so he
is using guys like you, and it's just yeah, and.
Speaker 7 (08:12):
And some guys do calls. We're not dealing with homeowners,
We're dealing with developers. And so if I get a call,
it's more there's some mortgage brokers that deal with both
with homeowners and were there typically what I'm dealing with
because our projects are a little bit larger, are dealing
with professionals. They're more like commercial mortgage brokers as opposed
to resident and you too, Jonathan.
Speaker 9 (08:33):
Yeah, absolutely, Sindy commercial mortgage brokers.
Speaker 6 (08:37):
We do commercial mortgage lending.
Speaker 9 (08:38):
As well, so you know, but you know, these hard
money guys, once again, you got to look at they
have more of a risk appetite, appetite for risk. Then
let's say, are traditional of a bank, you know banks,
they have, they lend to everything, they do credit cards,
they do auto loans, they do everything. So their risk
advertise is just very, very small for any particular products.
(09:01):
Whereas if you do a deal with a hard money
guy that specializes in a certain thing, whether it's churches
or gas stations or a multifamily or whatever, their risk
advertising can be much larger than See how.
Speaker 2 (09:13):
That thought, don't go, don't go, just all that thought.
This is Sidney Stumbo Toughest Nails on WBZ News Radio
ten thirty.
Speaker 3 (09:18):
Would be right back, sponsored by Floor and Decorp, National
Lumber and Village Back.
Speaker 2 (09:34):
Good and welcome back to Sidney Stumpo Toughest Nails on
WBZ News Radio ten thirty. And we are here with.
Speaker 5 (09:46):
Lena Grello, Sean Kelly, Rand, Tyler Winder.
Speaker 2 (09:49):
Okay, now now that we all know who's here being
you still there, absolutely, Cindy and Bing. We're bringing you
in from where.
Speaker 6 (09:59):
I'm I'm an injury.
Speaker 2 (10:00):
No no, no, okay, but we're bringing you in from where.
Speaker 9 (10:06):
Oh I sorry. Chatter supposed to uh chattersppostal the io.
It is a great application and we get to speak
to real people in real time, like Cindy stumble Brand
called on the many others uh chatters. Social the io
allows you to just interact with people and have great conversations.
Speaker 2 (10:24):
Absolutely so his screen savings. See so these people are
listening right now to you people right Well, we couldn't
do that before. Was just radio, got it? Okay, So
everybody downloads social audio? Was it again? Chat of social audio,
and I'll send you invitations to get right in. Okay.
(10:44):
And this way when you're we can have our own
rooms doing things of this nature and teach other people
instead of just coming into the studio radio. It's pretty
pretty amazing. But on Twitter you never used that any
of that. See Boston doesn't know about this, guys, they
don't know Clubhouse. They don't know, Twitter, we don't have
this plane flying around Massachusetts going joint clubhouse. Join Twitter audio.
(11:08):
They don't know what. Everything's just the nightclub here, oh,
new restaurant. No, no, no, they don't know what. It's crazy.
It's such a on tap market up here. It's scary. Okay,
where were we, Jonathan? You were talking, weren't you?
Speaker 6 (11:21):
Yeah?
Speaker 9 (11:22):
I was just saying that that these hard money lenders,
private money lenders, they've become essential to the industry, you know.
And and as the major players are the banks, the
traditional banks are seeing this.
Speaker 6 (11:36):
They want a piece of it. They definitely want to
end on it.
Speaker 9 (11:39):
But once again, without if it wasn't for them, and
they're I guess their appetite for our risk.
Speaker 6 (11:45):
A lot of the projects that you guys are seeing
happening won't.
Speaker 9 (11:47):
It wouldn't happen without private money lenders.
Speaker 2 (11:51):
It's crazy because I've never used one. Is that crazy?
Speaker 5 (11:54):
And thirty eight is well, I think the other side
of it is because.
Speaker 2 (11:56):
Again my brain went to gangster that if you didn't
hey it, your legs and i'ms are gonnat not my
legs and i'ms are gonna get broken because that would
never happen. But that's what I thought back in the day, right,
like why are you going to those guys?
Speaker 4 (12:09):
No, to Seoun's point is it's just so much more
sophisticated than it was. But it's it's not just you
can't necessarily look at the.
Speaker 2 (12:14):
Hard Moe, not every guy, Nie and Marios.
Speaker 4 (12:17):
Oh exactly, thumb nurth end, We're all still there. But
you can't necessarily just look at the hard money of
the private lending just as a twelve percent interest in
two points. It's the creativity with everything. It's the how
quick can you close? And I would look at everything
as a developer, as a as a strictly cash on
cash ROI standpoint, if I'm bringing the say five or
(12:38):
ten percent less to go buy a project, that's money
I'm keeping in my pocket. My profit's going to go
down at the end because I am paying an extra
three points of interest in one point up front. But
that extra four percent is not it's it's worth it
every day of the week because I'm bringing ten percent
less on cash. So look at the hard money the
private lending is the creativity that you can get in
(12:59):
a job to maximize what you're trying to do with
your business.
Speaker 7 (13:02):
But I also say, I mean just talk about you know,
guy League Tyler on it that is not out there
going through MLS to buy a property. Right, he's finding something,
he's calling around, He's calling me and going, hey, I
got something that's out there.
Speaker 2 (13:15):
So most of your deals you're finding off market is
that we're.
Speaker 4 (13:17):
Doing probably seventy percent, right, So you're.
Speaker 2 (13:20):
Still counting on procus to bring your deal.
Speaker 4 (13:22):
So sure, there's always going to be the broker relationships
you are, you always going to have to have it.
Speaker 7 (13:26):
But he's not calling me up and saying, hey, I've
got this thing. Look up this listing on MLS. It's
listed for a million dollars. On buying it for a
million dollars, he's coming to me going, hey, look at
this one typically be sold for a million dollars.
Speaker 5 (13:38):
I've got it.
Speaker 7 (13:39):
I got to close in ten days though, because I
got it under for seven fifty and so, but I
can't get it for seven to fifty unless.
Speaker 5 (13:46):
I can close in ten days. And so what we're finding.
Speaker 2 (13:49):
You find that people give up two fifty to close
a deal right away. Huh.
Speaker 4 (13:53):
Now it's there's a different settiment out that.
Speaker 5 (13:57):
Was definitely prior.
Speaker 4 (13:58):
And there's so much equity out there in these properties,
so you're not really seeing that, are you seeing?
Speaker 2 (14:02):
Just because I think the end user's got a lot
of a lot brighter in the last five six years.
Speaker 4 (14:07):
They have, And it's easy to get brighter when you're
sitting on you know, a twelve percent increase of your
your home's value over the last two years, like, oh,
I have this much more cash in my pocket. I'm
a little bit more sophisticated. Look at what my house
value just did since I've been here. I mean, I mean,
look away, someone, how.
Speaker 2 (14:21):
Of that is brokeers going in and blowing smoke up
there behinds two. I'll pull you a million. I'll pull
you a million. Two, I'll pull you a million. Three.
Then they put the thought in the head and then
the reality number start coming at nine, nine to twenty five,
and then they have to swallow that.
Speaker 7 (14:34):
Not everybody, I mean a lot of it is. You know,
somebody's buying something at auction. You've got thirty days to close, right,
and a bank doesn't always meet that timeline. And so
if you want to buy something at auction or sight unseen,
you've got to get a private lender, right, Or if
you're buying something and then you just look at it.
Let's say you're buying a project of a developer that's
(14:55):
halfway through. No bank wants to touch it. Halfway through.
I might look at it and if I it's halfway through,
and I know the problem.
Speaker 2 (15:02):
We know the story, right. I had to take over
a job for a hard money guy in Rhode Island
in Newton. He called me up. He said, then I
need you, like, who are you? I mean you need me?
Who are you? Told me? The problem, I said, buddy,
touching touching that job is everything's coming down the studs.
If I don't bring down to the studs, I'm not
touching that job. Well, partyage, I don't care I partyage.
(15:24):
You see, plumbing, electrical is done. I'm not touching that job.
My name goes on it. So if you want me
to bail you out, I'll bail you out. Here's what
I didn't understand. Now Samantha ends up making him money.
He made money off it. What I didn't understand, Maybe
you can explain to me. I said to him, just
bring it up to auction and sold as is, and
there'll be some follow that comes along that's a handing
(15:45):
man type guy and will buy it for you know,
help his kids fix it and get in to the
finish line. He said, we can't take the hit on
the books right now. What do you mean by that?
I can't take the hit all my books right now.
Was he because had money, guy out of Rhode Island
and a good sized company by the way.
Speaker 5 (16:03):
Yeah, they're probably.
Speaker 7 (16:03):
I mean the issue is is if they auction it off,
they may have been upside down right.
Speaker 2 (16:08):
I think that was the set for a batim. I
can't take a hit on my books right now. I said, dude,
I don't think you're going to take a hit on
your books. I think you'll get out clean and you'll
make yourself a few hundred thousand covering all your expenses.
The guy hadn't paid interest in the year, blah blah blah,
even though I do. It had to go pour a
new foundation, take out the old slab. The guy had
no stone on the slab. The thing was thinking it
(16:31):
was a nightmare. But we made it all perfect for
him and he's still made money. But the remark was,
I can't take a hit on my books right now.
What did that mean? I didn't ask him. I didn't.
Speaker 5 (16:44):
I mean, I think of what he's saying is he's
just going to take a loss.
Speaker 2 (16:46):
Okay, I get that, But why I couldn't You couldn't
take it. I've got a board to answer to. I'm
assuming he's.
Speaker 7 (16:52):
Probably got a lot of and I don't know, he's
got investors, he's got to do his reporting. He doesn't
want to go out and report. Maybe he has a
bunch of projects going wrong at the same time.
Speaker 5 (17:01):
Maybe it's Q three.
Speaker 4 (17:02):
You have to wait to offload it in Q one
of next year to get it off of this cycle,
like yeah.
Speaker 5 (17:06):
A million.
Speaker 7 (17:06):
So it could be, you know, could be it might
not be his money, right, I mean, and I think
that's the idea. If you're if you're lending on it correct, right,
and you're doing it, you're diversifying across seventy to one
hundred projects, you're in on there somewhere under seventy sixty
five seventy percent of you know ARV so after renovated value,
(17:27):
and so you're hoping you've got enough margin in there
that when things.
Speaker 5 (17:29):
Go wrong, hey, the developer you know, might be coming out.
Speaker 2 (17:33):
Well, when I saw the spreadsheet, he over gave on
every line at them, but no one came out to do.
Let's put our eyes on that foundation. Let's put our
eyes on the hole. Let's put our eyes on the drainage.
There's no drainage a site where I mean it was.
Speaker 5 (17:50):
It just permitted.
Speaker 2 (17:51):
It passed again. You can put the drainage in. I
can ask you for the number my line atom number
two for drainage if you don't come and inspect to
see if I dropped the drainagen. He thought all this
was done, only to find out none of it was done.
So it came out to do the site business was
falling asleep behind the wheel. Follow me, yep, okay, So yeah,
(18:12):
the city passed the foundation because the stone goes in afterwards.
I put my stone in first. Right when the footings
go in, we pile it in with stone. Foundation goes up.
He didn't do that again. It wasn't a good builder.
But the point was, My point was when he said
to me, I can't take the hit right now. That
means he's answering to a group of guys. Maybe he
(18:34):
approved the law. Whatever he seemed to be.
Speaker 7 (18:36):
The seal probably has I mean, I no idea where
they are. I mean, whether it's a big group that
has a fund or you know, maybe it's one individual
investor that was in that particular long.
Speaker 2 (18:45):
Well, like I just said, maybe he didn't want to
take a hit on that. Whatever, it turned out well
for him. But when I got the call, I was like, Sin,
I need you, and I'm like, and you are like,
I want to introduce yourself, buddy, Like who are you?
Speaker 4 (18:58):
Well, you talked about a couple of things. Is over leverage,
and there's over leverage on the banking side as well.
So they're over leveraged by lion item ten because they
went eight percent higher on each line item giving the
draw to the developer. Now all of a sudden, they're
so far behind and they're they're digging themselves out of
a grave.
Speaker 2 (19:17):
Okay, we're gonna go after break, but I want the
next I went to be about we have this economy
you think is going Okay, guys, okay, perfect, Okay. This
is Sidney Stumbley. Listened Toughness Nails and we'll be right back.
Speaker 3 (19:28):
Sponsored by Pillow Windows of Boston, Next Day Molding and
Kennedy Carpet.
Speaker 2 (19:58):
Hey, welcome back to Toughest it's on WBZ News Radio tenth.
Right now, I'm Sydney Stumpo and we're here with again.
Speaker 7 (20:05):
Lena Grillo and Sean Kelly Wren okay, and Tyler Winder.
Speaker 2 (20:09):
Right, guys, let's get to hot questions. Where's this market going? Well,
do you think it's going? Yeah, let's let's talk about
the housing market, the economy, let's go, we'll cover it all,
but right now, the housing market.
Speaker 5 (20:19):
Let's talk about So what impacts the housing market?
Speaker 6 (20:22):
Right?
Speaker 7 (20:22):
So, what's going to impact prices? Well, let's look at
two things. One, if people have the jobs and the
income to pay and buy the house, and so look
at the job market. And then you want to look
at the supply right so right now, and so prices
are determined by supply and demand quite obviously, right So
supply right now is very low.
Speaker 5 (20:38):
Right, it's impossible to build.
Speaker 7 (20:40):
You'll it's very difficult to build new supply in Massachusetts.
It's you can talk to any builder out there, and Cindy,
I'm sure that you let him know on a constant
basis how much red tape and how hard is to build,
and Tyler can talk about that. So supply is very restricted.
So that's good for holding house prices high. Now let's
talk about demand. So demand, I think what worse seeing
(21:00):
and we're a little bit worried about, is what we
talked about before, is Hey, the end consumer isn't doing
as well as they were doing a couple of years ago,
and it's starting to show up.
Speaker 6 (21:09):
Right.
Speaker 7 (21:09):
Jobs numbers were revised downwards. It was a big hit.
I think the Fed is looking at those things and saying, hey,
this job market isn't so great. Delinquency is arising on autos,
consumer and a student loans and so now and then
on the edges on the mortgage market, and so that
doesn't look good for the economy. How bad is it
going to get? I don't know, but I don't think.
(21:30):
I think it's going to get worse before it gets better.
Speaker 2 (21:33):
Bang you theah, Okay, did you hear what he just said?
Speaker 6 (21:38):
I know it is little.
Speaker 2 (21:42):
We're talking about the economy that we think we're going
to hit. What a recession in real estate market?
Speaker 7 (21:48):
I think it's going I think it's getting worse. I
don't think it's going horrible immediately, but I don't think
it's going to be as healthy as it was.
Speaker 2 (21:54):
If we all had to make a call for the
next six months. John, make the call for the next
six months months from today.
Speaker 6 (22:02):
I think we're gonna be fine.
Speaker 9 (22:03):
I'm sorry, I just you know, I think the stock
market is gonna take a little hit, but I think
we're gonna be fine. On the real estate, I think,
you know, right now, guys, we just don't have enough
inventory out there.
Speaker 5 (22:13):
Yeah, we don't.
Speaker 6 (22:14):
We don't. There's not enough inventory.
Speaker 2 (22:15):
Remember he's in the northeast too. There's a whole country
out there, guys, whole country are going.
Speaker 6 (22:22):
Well, you're right in my area. People are still bid.
It's like forty fifty people are still being in the house.
And that one house has went for two hundred forty
thousand dollars.
Speaker 9 (22:29):
Over asking price. Uh and that's a six hundred thousand
dollars house, you know. Uh, And it's an expensive house.
Speaker 6 (22:36):
You know.
Speaker 9 (22:36):
It's people are still fighting, people coming from New York still.
Speaker 6 (22:38):
Trying to get these properties.
Speaker 9 (22:40):
But once again, there's still is a housing shortage. Now
some areas of the country, you know, there may be
some kind of slow down, but right now we don't
have the inventory.
Speaker 6 (22:47):
And with the race going down, people are.
Speaker 9 (22:50):
Gonna get with another one hundred and fifty thousand dollars
in buying power.
Speaker 2 (22:53):
You know, dang thing. You know you're talking about a price,
but hold on, back it down for it, forgive me,
give me a chance here. You talk about a price
range that anywhere in the Northeast and in popular areas
like we all live. Okay, that's a that's a nothing number,
meaning there will be twenty offers on there. Now. Start
to talk to me about the million five to three
and a half million price range of brand new construction.
(23:16):
Have you seen a slow down in Jersey?
Speaker 9 (23:20):
Yeah, well, Cindy, no, because we have the New York
we're sandwich in between New York and Philadelphia. Okay, then
we have the Delaware markets, so we're unique in that regard.
We have we're sandwiched in between two major, major metropolitan
areas where people are where New York is getting so
expensive to live over there, they're coming over to the Jersey.
They're driving the prices up. That's why you know the
(23:42):
house was out right right outside of New York City.
You know, it was six hundred and seventy thousand dollars.
They wound up be in the quarter million dollars above
two hundred and forty thousand miles above asking price and
paid for cash. So you know, once again, I probably
won't be the right person to ask in terms of that.
Speaker 6 (23:57):
For Cindy, what I will say is this that.
Speaker 2 (23:59):
He's right, Northeast doesn't take a beatdown. I said, you're right,
the Northeast never takes the beatdown, but we slow down
in a way. But we didn't take a beat down.
Speaker 7 (24:12):
And I don't clarify that, right, So I don't think
so if you look today inventory, so if you look
at cross market, right, So we talked about supply and demand, right,
Supply very hard in the Northeast.
Speaker 5 (24:22):
I completely agree with that. Very hard to build.
Speaker 7 (24:24):
And if homeowners consumers are out there and they want
prices to come down, well, it's all about building more product, right.
So it's if you can't build, and you can't build
at scale, it's very hard to bring those prices down, right.
So that's the impact, right. We have very restrictive zoning laws,
we have very restrictive permitting. It's hard to build, so
(24:45):
therefore supply is fairly restricted. Go down to the southeast
and southwest and you go look at a market like Austin,
which we tend to follow. And you say, oh, wait
a second, their home prices are down four percent. What's
that's driven by a year of year four percent?
Speaker 5 (24:59):
Why?
Speaker 7 (25:00):
Well, supply is building up. And then if you go
and look at the inventory, you see a spike. Go
down to Florida. You're seeing a spike in inventory in Florida.
So that's up massively across Florida and that's all major markets.
There's an inventory spike.
Speaker 5 (25:11):
What is that?
Speaker 7 (25:12):
Then when you have inventory and lots of inventory out
there and consumers have lots of choice, prices start to
come down. So I think you're going to see in
those markets where you have inventory spike prices to come down.
I think in the Northeast what you'll have to see
in order for prices to come down, right, And I'm
not talking about massive right. I don't think that we're
going to get something like the last financial crishis. But
if you want a moderation of prices, that's not going
(25:33):
to come from the supply side because it's so hard
to build. Where you're going to see that come from
is the demand side. So what is that talking about?
Speaker 6 (25:38):
Jobs?
Speaker 5 (25:39):
Right?
Speaker 7 (25:39):
So if tech companies start laying off if biotech companies
start laying off, then you're going to start to see, well, okay,
is it your Lexington Newton home that was on the
mid range of somebody who was in middle management at
one of those firms, and you've got less bidders out there. Now,
you still have plenty of other industries in the Boston market, right,
You have lots of a kind of variety of jobs
(26:00):
in the economy. But I think you're going to start
to see some of the pressure come off. And how
are you going to see that?
Speaker 6 (26:05):
Right?
Speaker 7 (26:05):
So you're talking about big averages, and we talked about it.
You know, prices are up four percent year every year
in Boston, they're down four percent year every year in Austin, Texas. Well,
that's hiding behind it that some prices might be stagnant,
some prices might be up ten to twenty percent, right,
because we're talking about averages, and I think what we're
going to we're starting to see already is that we're
starting to see a lot of the prices for things that.
Speaker 5 (26:27):
Are on the margins.
Speaker 6 (26:28):
Right.
Speaker 7 (26:28):
So if you build a good product, it still flies
off the shelf, right, and you price it appropriately. But
I think if you're building a product out there that's subpar,
and two years ago somebody would have bought it just
because they wanted to get in the market and would
fly off the shelf. That's not selling anymore. That's sitting,
and that price is coming down if it's still I.
Speaker 6 (26:47):
Hear you saying, I agree.
Speaker 2 (26:48):
So let me give you a for instance. Right everybody says,
oh coach, you stumpo. They don't get hurt off there.
They're in their only little niche market. Right now, I
just put a house on an agreement for not a
bit lot thirty thousand square. For the lot ten million. Now,
I could have pulled twelve five. I know I could
pull twelve five for that house, maybe thirteen if I
take it to the end. Burn the hand right now.
(27:10):
To me, I know the profit margin I'm we make
off it. You don't get greedy in my business because
little pigs get what grow and big pigs get Thank you, Ross.
There's my producer with his little stupid camera coming at me,
his little clock machine. But so I'm opted to take
I'm doing the deal of that number, even though I'm
gonna leave. I know I'm leaving two million dollar the
(27:31):
table because my gut tells me move that now, move
that one. Now. We got enough, We've got enough land
that we have others to build that one. I'm just
gonna let it slide out.
Speaker 6 (27:44):
Well.
Speaker 5 (27:44):
The other thing is there's just so much on something.
Speaker 2 (27:45):
I'm going on my gut feeling, and my gut feeling
has never taken me down the wrong path.
Speaker 4 (27:49):
Yeah, yeah, And there's just uncertainty right now.
Speaker 5 (27:51):
Like that I was.
Speaker 4 (27:51):
I just had a two family new construction locked up
in Cambridge, got it to perman and got everything ready.
You look at the numbers, maybe it's a seven figure
deal if you bring it from start to finish in
eighteen months. Eighteen months is a much different market that
it is right now. I had another developer come through.
He offered me about a two hundred and fifty thousand
assignment fee. So you look at it and say, all right,
do you take a seven figure profit in eighteen months
(28:12):
with all the different variables of all the red tape,
you have to go through the elections coming up with
interest rates, where's everything going? Or do you take this
now at what percent of a projected outcome at the end?
Speaker 2 (28:23):
Correct?
Speaker 4 (28:23):
At what percent are you going to take the cash now,
walk away, clap their hand whenever they get there, and
just ignore the headaches onto the next one.
Speaker 2 (28:31):
As as end users that want to sell their homes
and they can make three four one thousand and two
hundred two point fifty one eighty maybe even more than that, right,
they're like, what do I do, Cindy, Well, are you
going to go? Well, that's the problem. So you're going
to sell high and you're going to buy high. So
that doesn't work. That was a dumb move. Sell high,
go rent something. But even rentserr up everywhere, right, So
(28:52):
it's kind of like everybody's kind of stuck right now. Well,
and we also want to sell it and make the money,
but they don't want to go rent or they So
everybody's kind of like a in a struggle where I
see this that people call me saying, can you give
me your advice? Cindy? I can't. What's good for you
and your family? Right now? You're in a home you
(29:15):
can afford. The mortgage is so low. Yeah, I know
you can make four thousand, and you should have taken
a line on that maybe two years ago, borrowed against it,
and then you'd be paying two three percent right, But again,
who was thinking? Who was thinking to do that? I
didn't even do that. I should have taken a line
on my own hose.
Speaker 4 (29:33):
Well that's the other thing making the money, But I
should have That's the other thing we're saying on the
inventory crisis is it's not only the fact that we
can't build enough product to compete with buyer demand. It's
the fact that interest rates went to nothing and now
all of these these homeowners are sitting with a massive
pot of all.
Speaker 2 (29:50):
That I thought I got to go to break. He's
waving and I'm Sidney stumpoed he lives in too of
his nails on WBZ News Radio Temp They will.
Speaker 3 (29:56):
Be right back, sponsored by new Brook Realty Group, Boston,
would Smaller Insurance, World Auto Body and Tosca Drive Autobody
Nobody Wait.
Speaker 2 (30:17):
And welcome back to Toups Nails on WBZ News Radio
tent Thor And I'm City Stumpo and we are here
with Lena.
Speaker 5 (30:23):
Grillo, Sean Kelly, Rand, Tyler Winder.
Speaker 2 (30:27):
And Jonathan Where are you from? Not just New Jersey?
Where are you coming from from?
Speaker 9 (30:32):
Chatter social io is a social audio visual app that
allows people to interact in real time and actually speaking
each other in real time.
Speaker 2 (30:41):
And we are doing that right now. And we're doing
that right now from my iHeartMedia studio, and we're zooming
in from all over the place. People on here are
from all over the country and outside of the country.
And I can scroll up screensave and look at their
faces and see who's online. It's pretty awesome. It's the visual,
it's the video blows away Twitter and any of the others. Okay,
(31:04):
go back where were we? Does anybody remember I'm having
a metapuse moment.
Speaker 5 (31:09):
And then got cut off because he was talking about
supply pick it up.
Speaker 4 (31:13):
You just started seeing my ears pop up like the
rabbit in the in the hunting shows. But no, you
start talking looking at inventory crisis. That's what's ultimately going
to dictate everything, and we can't build enough product to
keep up with the buying demand. But the other thing
is we dropped interest rates down.
Speaker 2 (31:27):
The president built three million homes in four years? Was
that and a president? Any president three million homes in
four years? No, there'say, And we're talking to builders right.
Speaker 5 (31:37):
Yeah, Okay, it's not happening.
Speaker 4 (31:40):
But the other thing out there, that's that's extremely weighed
down on the inventory. Is when the interest rates went
down to nothing. These homeowners were sitting on so much
equity in their homes with nowhere to go. But not
only that is we might be sitting there in a
high twos mid twos interest rate, and they're going to
see if I'm going to get the exact same home
taking four hundred thousand of equity upgrading, going to be
paying significantly more for the same cost borrowed, and it
(32:04):
just it handcuffs these homeowners. So it just makes it
extremely difficult for the mistakes, the mistakes that the you know,
economists did when everything got dropped.
Speaker 2 (32:13):
Go back to those words, Jonathan, did you hear the
words he used?
Speaker 6 (32:18):
Handcuffed?
Speaker 2 (32:19):
Where'd we hear that from?
Speaker 6 (32:22):
You said that? We've always sad, I.
Speaker 2 (32:24):
Mean we no, we only heard one person say that
word handcuff last night. That was two nights ago. Who
was that gz okay, I yeah, I've never I've never
heard those words. I don't use those words handcuffed. I've
never us those words. Pretty fun that use those words.
Go ahead, finish, I want Jonathan to listen.
Speaker 4 (32:42):
Yeah, So I mean it's I mean, that's that's pretty
much the end of the conversation with that. So, I mean,
inventory crisis is going to remain unless some serious serious
changes happen in terms of building, zoning code and obviously
you know interest rates where it's not going to handcuff
these home sellers where they can go move put their
head back on the market and bring up the inventory.
Speaker 7 (33:02):
And I think nothing in the Northeast is going to
change in terms of bringing significant inventory anytime soon.
Speaker 2 (33:08):
Right, So that's impossible.
Speaker 7 (33:09):
So you know, even if you made major changes to
are permitting and zoning, it takes so long to permit
a project that but.
Speaker 2 (33:18):
It's not happening as much as stuff is getting built
in Florida. So it still takes two years, three years,
sure in certain areas of Florida two to keep permitting everything.
But I think you're gonna have a lot to pick
from down there. Yeah, and that's there.
Speaker 7 (33:30):
Comes and watch the prices, watch the price down, Watch
the prices in Florida, watch the prices in Texas, watch
the prices in you know all kind of the arizonas
those Southwest markets where it's easy to build and easy
to bring supply to market. Watch the prices, right, I
think they're gonna come down. I think you're gonna see
the as soon as you see those inventory numbers start
(33:51):
to spike, kind of wait a few months and you'll
start to see the prices come down again.
Speaker 4 (33:55):
And when you're saying the inventory low in the markets
like we are in the Boston market, it's it's it's
recession resistant. Nothing's a recession proof in this world, but
recession resistant where regardless what's going on, we're still having
you know, these buyers come through and buying property because
the inventory is remaining so low. At the end of
the day.
Speaker 2 (34:12):
Now, you know what the greatest part of today was
having Lena in the studio the whole day because she's
learned so much, because her and Chat have been coming
to me going what if we go build teenie homes
up here and be Airbnb's here in this there because
they did not fall on the economics. Now this will
trigger her brain to maybe fallow the economics better. See.
(34:32):
Part of this is teaching this next generation financial literacy
why deals do make sense certain areas and why they
don't make sense in other areas. We're not just one big,
happy country. It's just not We're not like that. It's
just not what it is. We pull stronger numbers up here,
then over here they're pulling weaker numbers. And then you
talk about the West Coast and you talk about Texas
(34:53):
and you talk about Arizona, Aspen. We can go to Utah.
Look the numbers in Utah right now for ski and
ski out. Look at Aspen's numbers. Crazy, go to Hamptons, Nantucket,
the Vineyard. We could start naming all different areas, but again,
pocket areas. There's still a big country out there.
Speaker 8 (35:08):
I think we're also just scared to kind of make
that big of a move out here. I feel like
starting small and starting the tiny home and the rentals
would get us there faster, and yeah, get our feet
under I mean.
Speaker 2 (35:28):
You gave you advice if you first buy a house
to yourself, a two.
Speaker 8 (35:31):
Family or a three family, Well, yes, but that is
such a big investment, especially out here.
Speaker 2 (35:38):
Correct, But guess what investment Here's what your generation doesn't understand.
It's a big investment here, and it's a bigger return here.
It's a less investment here with a much lesser return here.
Plus your asset is more secure here than if I
stick in some state over here. Yeah, here's the difference.
(35:58):
I just gave you three things. Yeah, anymore might have
put down, But the chance of your assets staying stronger
here is much stronger than if I stick you in
Texas and your return is going to be greater here.
What the late of your money.
Speaker 8 (36:15):
In a tourist state where it's.
Speaker 2 (36:18):
People go back to hotels? Does they want to talk
about the airbnbs, how they're doing so well right now?
They're not?
Speaker 5 (36:23):
I mean, we're not.
Speaker 7 (36:24):
I mean, see, we already know. You know some hotels aren't.
You know, there are some hotels that are doing great,
there's some hotels that aren't. I think airbnbs, I'm mean,
I think people are relying on air being and there's
still some airbnbs that do extraordinarily well. And I know
people that run airbn pockets areas in pocket areas, and
I think that what we talk about is getting the
segment right right. And so I think if you're talking
about oversaturated markets with airbnbs, when the economy slows down
(36:48):
and there's less jobs, the first thing that gets cut
from people's budgets vacations, and so that.
Speaker 5 (36:54):
Starts to hurt.
Speaker 7 (36:55):
And so something that was looking really good one year
is not looking so good the next year.
Speaker 2 (36:59):
And this, and here in lies the problem. Nobody's teaching
twenty something year old and even in their early thirties.
We've all had a self teach ourselves. I had no
one teaching me this. I've been doing this for thirty
eight years. I had to self learn all of this.
Who taught you this? You learn all this at your
fancy school that you went to.
Speaker 5 (37:18):
No, it was a self taught.
Speaker 7 (37:19):
My mother was a real estate broker sold for closures
in the nineties. I was calling an amazing college.
Speaker 5 (37:24):
Yeah, I went to university and then grad school.
Speaker 2 (37:27):
So okay, grade schools, But would you learn it on
job experience?
Speaker 5 (37:31):
Job?
Speaker 4 (37:31):
Would you learn it getting into it? I didn't know
what a colonial was eight years ago.
Speaker 2 (37:36):
Okay against the traditional the modern.
Speaker 4 (37:38):
Yeah, a little bit different like beforehand those out here.
But yeah, you have to learn through osmosis, throw your
feet and get.
Speaker 2 (37:46):
In the game so right, or have somebody that can
teach you the right way. And there lies the problem
we're all. I tried my hardest to get on social
audio and try to explain to people the pig headed,
they're stubborn, they don't want to listen. They think they
know more, They don't know more. You can't do this
for thirty eight years and challenge somebody that's been doing
(38:07):
something for so many decades and still standing. But unless
sometimes it's easier. That's my point of being on social
audio for other kids. I always say take my kids.
I'll give you my kids. You know what I'm saying,
except I'm kind of a young mom that no one
else has kids my kids age. People my age have
kids that are still younger, right, So I can't like
(38:29):
trade them off and say, Okay, I'll take your kids,
you take my kids. Because sometimes kids will learn from
another person to listen to you more than they'll listen
to me. I might have more knowledge than you in
the field, you might have more more office knowledge than me,
or numbers, doesn't matter. But I think the point is
if we don't teach the next generation coming up, that's
a major problem. So I thought when I go on
(38:51):
to social audio by accident, there was a reason for
me to go on there. And I can't get these
people to listen because they rather listen to somebody that
is just starts it off like this. Well, you know,
I was abused when I was ten, but I'm gonna
teach you how to make a million dollars a year?
Like what is wrong with you? People like do you do?
(39:12):
You have to lead in with that to like it's
crazy if you haven't been traumatized and drama to a
point of no return. And then they go in with
a I'm gonna teach horw to make a million dollars
a year. I'm on the free trying to explain to people. No, no,
So I'm glad whatever people got in from. Chatta got
to listen to this whole day because there's a lot
to take in. But this is everything we talk about.
(39:36):
Would I like to talk about on social audio teaching
another young person how to get in the game and
do it right?
Speaker 4 (39:43):
Well, the problem is that Lena just brings up, you know, airbnbs.
If you go google airbnbs and click on five different
things and then go onto Instagram, you're gonna get blasted
by six different you know, you know Zuckerberg get hit
the market, and you're gonna get all of these these
Instagram gurus who were telling you, oh, you're gonna make
all this money. I made seven figures in my first
(40:05):
month because there's all these different quote unquote people that
you don't want to follow, So you have to do
your research on which which social media influencers do you
I actually want to follow and make sure that I'm
following the right steps all the way through.
Speaker 8 (40:18):
Boom.
Speaker 2 (40:18):
Hold that thought and we're going to break. It's the
city stumboard to have his dales on w he is
the news radio.
Speaker 5 (40:27):
We're gonna wake up in the love and the sunlight hurts.
Speaker 2 (40:34):
My carave good night has finally come to an end.
Tyler Sean, thank you for coming into the studio. Angelina,
thank you for co hosting with me tonight. I appreciate
all the help. How do people reach you, guys, all
of you, Lena, how do people reach you?
Speaker 8 (40:50):
Clauses by Angelina that's my email.
Speaker 2 (40:53):
Yeah, clause it by Angelina, Clauses by Design Boston, Okay, good.
Speaker 4 (40:58):
John, Kelly rand You can find me on LinkedIn and
Tyler Wender most prominent on LinkedIn, last Mwnder on Instagram.
You can follow the company at TB Winder or for
a little bit more insight on the day to day
of what it looks like what we're doing, mister underscore
Winder and.
Speaker 2 (41:14):
If you want to keep this conversation going, say nights,
I will be on Shadow Social Audio. You can download it,
reach out to me and I'll send you an invite. Everybody,
have a great, safe weekend and we'll see you next weekend. Bye.
Popular Podcasts
Math & Magic: Stories from the Frontiers of Marketing with Bob Pittman
How do the smartest marketers and business entrepreneurs cut through the noise? And how do they manage to do it again and again? It's a combination of math—the strategy and analytics—and magic, the creative spark. Join iHeartMedia Chairman and CEO Bob Pittman as he analyzes the Math and Magic of marketing—sitting down with today's most gifted disruptors and compelling storytellers.
Dateline NBC
Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations. Follow now to get the latest episodes of Dateline NBC completely free, or subscribe to Dateline Premium for ad-free listening and exclusive bonus content: DatelinePremium.com
The Breakfast Club
The World's Most Dangerous Morning Show, The Breakfast Club, With DJ Envy And Charlamagne Tha God!