Kerre Woodham: How do you operate in an environment like this?

The phrase “may you live in interesting times” is bestowed not as a blessing, but as a curse. And living in these most interesting of times, you can see why that might be. That's not even taking into account the previous five years – if we just take 2025 as our year of living in interesting times, you can see why it might be a curse.   

Donald Trump raised tariffs on goods from China to 125%. Tariffs against seventy-five other countries are paused for 90 days with a 10% tariff because they were getting “yippy”. US share markets, which had been in freefall, have now rocketed higher. The Dow closed up 7.9%, the S&P500 closed up 9.5%, and the tech heavy NASDAQ was up 12.5% – this was all happening overnight. The normally phlegmatic Eric Crampton of the New Zealand Institute was about as ruffled as I've ever heard him this morning, talking to Mike Hosking on the Mike Hosking Breakfast.  

“Well, I was expecting more chaos and we're still getting it. So I had a bit of insomnia – wake up at 4am, okay tariffs are still on. Wake up at 6:30am, okay tariffs look like they're gonna be off. It is really hard for any business to plan in this kind of environment – the chaos is just going to continue. The guy who's responsible for administering the tariffs was talking for two hours about how great the tariffs are and how they're going to keep implementing them, and was told during his speech that Trump had put a 90 day pause on the tariffs. He presumably hadn't known before Trump did it. I don't think that there's any plan here at all.” 

Yeah. As for New Zealand exporters, well, I don't know. Founder of Egmont Honey, James Annabell told Ryan Bridge last night they're scrambling. 

“We've got five or six containers on the water which I believe are exempt actually, which is great, but I know that for a fact that we've got about 10 containers due to leave sort of end of April/May, which will all be subject to 10% tariffs. So we were obviously scrambling when we got the news last week. I believe anything that left before Saturday last week, we're exempt. I could be wrong there – an expert will probably ring in and say I'm wrong, but we understand that what's on the water now is okay, but the containers to come are all going to be subject to that 10%.” 

So how do you operate in an environment like this? For those of us not directly affected by the goings on in the United States —we're all ultimately affected, but not directly for many of us— it's a case of grab the popcorn and watch it play out. Take the White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt's approach: shrug and say boys will be boys, pass the popcorn. But for many Kiwis, they are having to try to make sense of all this to survive.    

The PM's just delivered a speech to the Wellington Chamber of Commerce, where he said, among other things, that the events of the recent days are the most significant challenge to the rules-based trading system since the general Agreement on Tariffs and Trade was formed in 1947. He told attendees that the direct impact on the New Zealand economy from the US tariffs announced last week is likely to be around $900 million, or roughly 0.2% of GDP. But the second order consequences of a region and a world retreating from trade and increasingly uncertain about its economic future will be more significant, despite the welcome news of de-escalation this morning, he said.  

I know for many businesses keeping an eye offshore and for those New Zealander’s watching their KiwiSaver accounts, that could be confronting. He said, the exporters I've spoken to in recent days remain buoyant, rightly confident in the quality of their product and their ability to navigate choppy waters. But for countries whose prosperity is underpinned by global trade, the months ahead will be challenging for their economic

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:06):
You're listening to the Carrywood and Morning's podcast from News Talks, he'd.

Speaker 2 (00:10):
Be the phrase may you live in interesting times is
bestowed not as a blessing but as a curse. And
living in these most interesting of times, you can see
why that might be. I mean, that's not even taking
into account the previous five years. If we just take
twenty twenty five as our year of living in interesting times,

(00:34):
you can see why it might be a curse. So
Donald Trump raised tariffs on goods from China to one
hundred and twenty five percent. Tariffs against seventy five other
countries are paused for ninety days with a ten percent tariff,
So getting yippy. US share markets, which had been in freefall,

(01:01):
have now rocketed higher. The Dow closed up seven point
nine percent, s and P five one hundred closed up
nine point five and the tech heavy Nasdaq was up
twelve and a half percent. So this was all happening overnight.
The normally pigmatic Eric Crampton of the New Zealand Institute
was about as ruffled as I've ever heard him this morning,

(01:23):
talking to Mic Costing on the Mic Costing Breakfast.

Speaker 3 (01:26):
Well, I was expecting more chaos and we're still getting it.
So it had a bit of insomnia. Wake Up at
four in the morning, Okay, tariffs are still on. Wake
up at six thirty. Okay, tariffs look like they're going
to be off. It is really hard for any business
to plan in this kind of environment. It's the chaos
is just going to continue. The guy who's responsible for
administering the tariffs was talking for two hours about how

(01:47):
great the tariffs are and how they're going to keep
implementing them, and was told during his speech that Trump
had put a ninety day pause on the tariffs. He
presumably hadn't known before Trump did it. I don't think
that there's any plan here at all.

Speaker 2 (02:05):
Yeah, have you ever heard him sound anything other than
come measured? Sure? Just certain. So that was Eric Crampton
talking to Mike Hosking this morning. As the New Zealand Exporters,
I don't know, founder of Edmont Honey James Annabel told
Ryan Bridge last night they're scrambling.

Speaker 4 (02:22):
We've got five or six containers on the water, which
I believe are exempt actually, which is which is great.
But I know for a fact that we've sort of
we've got about ten containers due to leave sort of
end of April May, which will all be subject to
ten percent tariffs. So we were obviously scrambling when we
got the news last week. I believe anything that left
before Saturday last week we're exempt. I could be wrong there,

(02:43):
as an expert will probably bring it in some wrong,
but we understand that what's on the water now is okay,
but the containers to come are all going to be
subject to that ten percent.

Speaker 2 (02:53):
So how is it? That was James Annabel from Egmont
Honey talking to Ryan Bridge last night. How how do
you operate in an environment like this? For those of
us not directly affected by the goings on in the
United States, I mean we're all ultimately affected, but not directly.
For many of us, it's a case of grab the

(03:14):
popcorn and watch it play out. Take the White House
Press Secretary Karen and Levitt's approach shrug and say boys
will be boys past the popcorn. But for many Kiwis,
they are having to try to make sense of all
this to survive they are. There's James Annabel going, well,

(03:34):
I'm pretty sure that the honey on the water won't
have a terror of applied, but anything coming up maybe
I don't know. You know, how do you operate a
business like that? If you're a fund manager trying to well.
I suppose you just follow the buying and selling of
congressmen and women in the US to make sure you
stay ahead of the market. But you know, how on

(03:57):
earth do people who are directly affected, who are in
the import and export game? How earth are you managing
your business? The PMS just delivered a speech to the
Wellington Chamber of Commerce, where he said, among other things,
that the events of the recent days are the most

(04:18):
significant challenge to the rules based trading system since the
General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade was formed in nineteen
forty seven. He told attendees that the direct impact on
the New Zealand economy from the US tariffs announced last
week is likely to be around nine hundred million, or
roughly zero point two percent of GDP, but the second

(04:41):
order consequences of a region in a world retreating from
trade and increasingly uncertain about its economic future will be
more significant. Despite the welcome news of de escalation this morning,
he said, I know for many businesses keeping an eye
off shore, and for those New Zealanders watching their kei
we saver accounts that could be confronting. He said. The

(05:03):
exports I've spoken to in recent days remain buoyant, rightly
confident in the quality of their product and their ability
to navigate choppy waters. But for countries whose prosperity is
underpinned by global trade, the months ahead will be challenging
for their economic interests, and many commentators will see these
events as the next step in a longer term trend

(05:25):
towards economic security and national resilience as countries ensure themselves
against emerging geopolitical threats. He said He's not ready to
throw on the towel and declare an end to the
error of free market and free trade. He said, Keywis
have worked too hard and for too long to give
up on the values and institutions which have seen our

(05:48):
country in the region we live in thrive. And I
guess if you.

Speaker 3 (05:56):
If you.

Speaker 2 (05:58):
Lived in the seventies and remembered the seventies, I was
a child of the seventies. It wasn't directly affected by it,
but if you lived it was. We were one of
the most closed economies outside of Eastern Europe, outside of
the communist nations. Anybody who bought anything overseas, cut off
the label and hoped they weren't picked up by customs.

(06:20):
Otherwise a tariff was applied when you brought it back
into the country. Because we made our own bras, and
we made our own T shirts, and we made our
own Swan dries and rugby jerseys. Everything was produced in
New Zealand, and people had wages, and they lived in
small towns, and there were factories everywhere. And then it exploded.

(06:43):
Everything the old New Zealand was gone and a new
world word came in for better and worse. I'm not
entirely sure we can go back to those days, nor
indeed would we want to. And perhaps it will all
calm itself down over the next but who knows. Like
I say, grab the popcorn.

Speaker 1 (07:06):
Or from Kerry Wooden Mornings. Listen live to news Talks
at b from nine am weekdays, or follow the podcast
on iHeartRadio.