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Speaker 1 (00:05):
You're listening to the Weekend Collective podcast from News Talks'd be.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
Foreign Minister Winston Peters. He's off to New York to
attend the United Nations eightieth anniversary meeting. He's described it
as a moment to reflect on the state of the
rules based international system. He also says it's a great
opportunity to gather information from a broad range of our
partners on how they view and manage the countless major
conflicts happening around the world. And of course we've seen
(00:31):
Russia testing NATO tolerance resolved with its incursions into NATO airspace,
and it's expected that this will lead where the meeting
will also lead to the government announcing finalizing New Zealand's
position on the recognition of Palestine, among other issues. And
geopolitical analyst Jeffrey Miller is with me now, Good afternoon.
Speaker 3 (00:52):
Good afternoon, Tim.
Speaker 2 (00:53):
How significant is this particular General Assembly, especially with all
these conflicts that are happening at the moment.
Speaker 3 (01:00):
Oh, it's really really important, Tim. It's only one of
these It's one of these moments that you get only
a few times a year, where you get so many
top level diplomats, so many foreign ministers, heads of government,
heads of state combined, all gathering together in one city
and one location. This year will be the eightieth anniversary
(01:22):
of the founding of the United Nations as well, so
it was gundered back in nineteen forty five. News even
was a founding member. Eighty years on, you'd have to
say it's hard to be optimistic about the state of
the world we're and the role of the United Nations
in the world. So it's quite a depressing site when
you just look at all of the conflicts that are
going on around the world, Gaza and Ukraine. There's just
(01:48):
so much to talk about, and it's really really important
that they're all there and that they're able to talk
about and flesh out some of these issues.
Speaker 2 (01:53):
Winston Peters has talked about being He's reflected on being
a founding member, hasn't he? And I guess how much
influence does New Zealand realistically have in forums like this.
Speaker 3 (02:04):
Well, it's a small it's a small amount of influence.
In the end, I mean, New Zealand is not one
of the permanent members of the Security Council, and the
reality is that those five permanent members, the Great Powers
largely can and do call the shots, and they do
that by using their right of veto. In the United
States in particular, has been using its veto when it
(02:25):
comes to the war in Gaza. For example, there's cast
six vetos in that wall, the latest of them just
in the last week or so. So in the end,
it's the big dogs that do have a lot of
sway over what happens and what doesn't happen in the
United Nations. Nevertheless, they still think it's important for New
Zealand to attend and to speak and to vote in
(02:46):
motions in the General Assembly. They're not binding, but they
do carry great symbolic weight. So in the end, that's
I guess where New Zealand's role comes in is when
it comes speaking out and putting its view and trying
to use the power of its argument to convince others.
Speaker 2 (03:05):
Speaking of symbolic so I understand Winston's attending a two
state solution conference co chair by France and Saudi Arabia.
What's going to happen there.
Speaker 3 (03:17):
Yeah, this is an event on the sidelines of the
U in General Assembly and it's been led by as
you said, France. In Saudi Arabia, we're expecting a big
announcement out of that that nine states, led by France,
will announce their recognition of a Palestinian state. Australia will
be among them, Belgium, Canada, a number of Western countries
remembers it's really Western countries that are the holdouts when
(03:39):
it comes to recognizing a Palestinian state. One hundred and
forty seven UN members already recognize it, so we're kind
of outlies in a way Western states and the United
Kingdom is meant to make a separate announcement that's meant
to be coming up overnight in New Zealand times Kerestarma
is meant to be announcing the United Kingdom's recognition of
(03:59):
a Palestinian state. So we're waiting to see what New
Zealand's position is. And this is the thing we were
expecting that the big reveal really this week what New
Zealand's position is on the Palestinian state. And it will
be really really interesting to see what when some Peter's
come comes out with, because he's been holding his cards
very closely to his chest, and he.
Speaker 2 (04:19):
Certainly has because I saw a poll in the UK
and it's important to get the nuance around this right
that ninety percent of people polled and opposed recognizing Palestine
without conditions. So that's the thing, is that what the
nuance is, because maybe we don't want to recognize Palestine
(04:41):
as a state if Hamas is the government or it
was indeed, you know all that stuff, what do you
reckon indeed?
Speaker 3 (04:49):
And it does seem to be coming down to that,
And I think the general consensus is that the recognition
of a Palaestinian state comes with a condition. Of course,
that's easier said, easier said than done, isn't it. How
do you actually enact that? But I think that there
is a bottom line that most Western states would agree
with if they don't agree with what he mustered on
(05:10):
October the seventh, but they also believe that the time
is right for a Palestinian state, and there's enormous frustration
on the part of Western leaders, the likes of as
a kare Starmer. He put conditions back in July, he
said he was planning to recognize the Palestinian state unless
and he gave a series of conditions, namely that Israel
would allow aid then and would commit to working towards
(05:34):
the two state solution, and that there would be a
c S file. Well, none of those have eventuated, and
that explains why kare Starma is going to come out
tonight and recognize the Palestinians.
Speaker 4 (05:45):
Is he doing it without condition?
Speaker 3 (05:48):
There will be conditions. I think everyone is putting some
form of conditions on it in the end, but it's
just you know exactly how the wording comes out. Well,
we're going to have to wait and see. I don't
think any will come out well with a sort of
no no questions asked recognition because I think they will
be aware that that will be unpalatable to their voters.
(06:09):
But I think it will be still a very strong
voice of support and a strong recognition of a Palestinian
state in some ways. I mean, it is a binary thing,
isn't it. Whether you recognize the state or not. You
can try and put some conditions and riders on it,
but in the end you're still going to be recognizing
it if you if you want to have that position.
Speaker 2 (06:30):
Well, I guess the other thing is is it purely
a moral sort of ethical question for US and other
countries or for New Zealand specifically and for Winston Peters.
Are there other geopolitical and trade sort of implications for
us that we are mindful of with our stance on this.
It's a cynical old world, isn't it.
Speaker 3 (06:48):
Indeed, Look, I think when some Peter's is genuinely conflicted
on all of this. I think morally he does see
the war in Gaza as an abomination. I mean, he's
called it another catastrophe. He's spoken it quite strongly about
the situation in Gaza. But at the same time, when
Saint Peter's wants, New Zealand has been much closer with
the United States, and the United States is Israel's biggest
(07:09):
backer in this war, and the US is really promising
all kinds of repercussions to states that are planning to
recognize a Palestinian state. There was a group of Republican congressmen,
for example, and congressmen and congressmen who have come out
and promised punitive measures on Australia if Australia goes ahead
(07:33):
with its plan to recognize a Palestinian state. So I
think I think that's where Peter sits. He feels a
bit uncomfortable. He would like to recognize the Palestinian state,
I think, but he also is aware of the backlash
from the United States, and that's his other big plan.
He sees the United States and Pacific partners working together
to combat China's influence, and recognizing a Palestinian state could
(07:57):
drive a wedge between Wellington and Washington. So, you know,
I think some of these factors are all coming into play.
And then you get the domestic considerations New Zealand and
the coalition. What does David Seymour, what does he think
about the recognition of a Palestinian state. You would assume
that he's not really supportive of it. So I don't
know how you wreck this Wow.
Speaker 4 (08:17):
Wondering if Winston's going to do, what Winston's going to do?
Speaker 3 (08:21):
Well, Look, the position that they've worked out in the
end is that Winston Peters is going to go to
New York and listen and then make a final decision.
I think really what they're doing is waiting to see
what others do, because if there's a real wave of
Western states recognizing a Palestinian state, New Zealand won't want
to be left behind, and.
Speaker 4 (08:43):
Lots of conversations behind the scenes, then.
Speaker 3 (08:47):
Yeah, look all the sideline conversations. Absolutely, but I think
it's also just waiting and seeing just how things unfold
this week, and if we've got going to have ten states,
as it seems over the next twenty four hours, twenty
four forty eight hours coming out and recognizing a Palestinian state,
the UK, Australia, some of New Zealand's closest friends are
(09:09):
recognizing a Palestinian state. How tenable is that the New
Zealand be left behind? So, you know, I think it's
in a way it's a smart strategy. It's a fast
follower strategy perhaps rather than a leading strategy. I mean,
some might say that's disappointing, given New Zealand likes to
see itself as more of a leader with the independent
foreign policy on these matters. But maybe there are some
(09:31):
arguments in favor of just waiting and seeing. And then
you've also got safety and numbers. To a degree, New
Zealand then slides in behind all of these other big estates.
Perhaps New Zealand escape some of the appropriatem coming out
of Washington from as allies, and maybe New Zealand can
just you know, as I say, find some safety in
(09:52):
numbers and go with the pack. So, you know, lots
to be lots to look out for so just.
Speaker 2 (09:58):
I mean, on the other big news items, we've seen
Russia flying drones over poland claimant exit. Then they flew
three jets over Estonia airspace which NATO intercepted. What discussion
can we see in the United noted nations on this
issue at all?
Speaker 3 (10:19):
At all? Look, it's pretty scary because with these incursions,
we're really just sort of one accident away from NATO
then responding, and the Czech president has come out and
saying NATO has to be ready to shoot some of
these planes down if we keep having these incursiencies and
(10:39):
violations of NATO airspace, And at that point you really
would go from an undeclared proxy war between NATO and
Russia to a declared open one. And that's the significance
of what's happening at the moment. When it comes to
the UN in the end, it's dialogue is that's what
we need. Dialogue, diplomacy, de escalation. We need cooler heads
here because in all out war between NATO and Russia
(11:03):
would be we just make It's a bad situation that
we've got right now with the war in Ukraine a
thousand times worse. And if you look at New Zealand.
New Zealand's a part in the country of NATO, and
New Zealand will be called on to respond as well.
So some of the you know, some of what you're
looking at is quite scary and what could potentially happen.
(11:24):
So in the end, that's why called aheads need to
prevail and all of these sideline conversations will help with that.
And a lot of Muzinsky is meant to meet at
Donald Trump on the sidelines and that's just one of
the big meetings that we will see.
Speaker 2 (11:38):
Well, actually, I was wondering how much where the King
Charles had a word in Trump's here when he was
over there. But I've often cynically said that, you know,
while the United Nations may not be as effective as
we'd like, it's still better to have us have the
ability to talk to each other and say how much
we hate each other, rather than lobbing missiles over each
other's borders. Do you think that the Nations can actually
play a significant role in de escalating the sort of
(12:00):
tensions that we It seems that Putin's happy to push
right now.
Speaker 3 (12:05):
Well, look, in the end, the UN as a forum
for dialogue and that's what we need right now. We
need dialogue and diplomacy because what is the alternative, As
you say, the alternative really is war. So the UN
is not perfect, and there's a lot of frustration on
the part of countries like New zeal And at the
UN's supposed impotence. But in the end, the UN really
is kind of for some of its members. And if
(12:28):
the big powers, the Great Powers don't want something to happen,
as I said earlier, they just think they need to
use their veto And those five permanent members of the
UN Security Council have an awful awful lot of power
with that veto. And that was the compromise at the
end of World War II when the UN was established
in nineteen forty five, that the Great Powers, the victors
(12:48):
from World War Two each got a right of veto,
and that was the only reason that they agreed to
the UN being established in the first place. So, look,
the UN isn't perfect, but it is better than nothing,
is there.
Speaker 2 (13:00):
Just lastly, is there any sort of standardby which winstonmpedoes
will be looking to judge his attendance as a success?
Speaker 3 (13:09):
Well, there are lots of metrics. In the end, I
think I think this week will really all be about
Gazan in the end, and about the recognition of a
Palestinian state. So Winston Peter's words in Washington will be
watched around the world, but particularly here in New Zealand
because we simply don't know where he's going to land
on that issue. But you know there are other metrics
as well, aren't there. I mean, how many hands does
(13:31):
he shake, which leaders does he meet, which foreign ministers
does he have a chat with? In the end, we
won't know exactly perhaps what is discussed in some of
those meetings. We can only judge by those images that
come out and the number of meetings that we get
told about. But it is important. And Winston Peters is
a very experienced foreign minister. I think we sometimes forget that,
(13:54):
but he's now been foreign minister what three times? He
knows the roads, and he knows what to do, and
he does acquit himself, I think well in these forums.
So I think all New Zealanders, I think, regardless of
your political views, we should be hoping that Wison Peters
does the best job you can this week because it's
a pretty important moment for the world and for New Zealand.
Speaker 4 (14:15):
Yeah, that's stuff.
Speaker 2 (14:16):
Hey Jeffrey, I really appreciate your time and your insights
of staff known. Thanks so much, Enjoy the rest of
your day.
Speaker 1 (14:21):
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