The Country 07/04/25: Phil Duncan talks to Jamie Mackay

We ask Monday’s resident weather expert if the North Island drought is over. He says we can expect more changeable weather – but we haven’t yet shaken the stubborn highs that got us into this dry spot in the first place.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Well, Duncan joins me now from weather Watch. Hey Phil,

(00:04):
just before we talk about the weather, have you looked
at your key? We save a account this morning?

Speaker 2 (00:08):
Yeah, i' you're taking a bit of a beating. No
I haven't. Why would you?

Speaker 1 (00:12):
No, best you don't look. The nz X, by the way, Folks,
is down two point eight eight percent, nearly three percent
this morning as we follow suit after the blood bath
on Wall Street. And the worst thing is the futures
markets for what they're worth predicting more downturns this week.
What the hell's he up to? We might ask a

(00:32):
political panel about that one as well, but I want
to talk to you, Phil Duncan about the weather. Is
the drought over in the North Island?

Speaker 2 (00:41):
Well, I wouldn't necessarily say it's over. About the rain
that came through last week was fantastic in many of
the driest parts of the country, and we've got some
more rain coming tomorrow. So you can only repeat events
to get yourself out of a technical drought. But yeah,
absolutely last week put a real big dent into it.
We've got this cold front coming in tomorrow though that's

(01:01):
probably the biggest feature this week. We've got a Colt snap.
So it's going to feel more wintry in the South Island.
And this comes through snow on the mountains, because they
got snow in Tasmania over the weekend. It's the same
system coming our way and then yes followed by high pressure.
So the high pressure system coming in behind. It's still
really big, could take another week to really move through,

(01:22):
and so apart from a few showers, once we get
that high pressure system, there's no big rain event just yet.
But end on a buff. We are looking at the
speed wobbles on these high pressure systems, and what I
mean by that is, rather than it perfectly moving over
us in a straight lane, we're starting to see it
wabble around a bit. And when it does that, you
can get either a tropical low or an antarctic blast,

(01:45):
but either way you can get rain again. So I'm
optimistic of something coming through now.

Speaker 1 (01:51):
I'm looking at your mates from newah Mine. My goodness.
Niwa and the Met Service have been in the news recently,
haven't they fill your mates at Newa The drought index snap,
but they only up it's always a few days behind.
This is as of the fourth of April, so that's
Friday still showing numerous dry regions in the North Island.
But I know, I know from some of the rainfall

(02:11):
figures we got sent and on Friday's show the likes
of Northland Auckland getting meaningful rain. Obviously the top of
the South Island did as well. Maybe King Country, Taranaki,
Manor or two not faring so well.

Speaker 2 (02:27):
Yeah, I think we'll have a clearer idea tomorrow when
those maps update. It's a little frustrating that takes so
many days, but yeah, there's a delayed effect, so we'll
have to wait probably till tomorrow to really see how
much of that rain last week put a big ginks.
A lot of it fell over April or fourth and
going into the fifth when it cleared off. But yeah,
I still think there'll be some pretty good rainfall coming

(02:49):
through again tomorrow, not necessarily big totals for those driest
of the areas, but enough to really keep the ground
wet for a bit longer. So that's good for a
pasture growth. Like the rainfall deficits concerned, we need an
April surprise, and so whether that's a tropical low that
suddenly forms or a storm out of the Tasman. They're possible.

(03:10):
We're seeing low pressure popping up in the long range
maps when you go out two weeks. They're not overly
reliable to placement at that long range point, but seeing
them up here that's a very good thing.

Speaker 1 (03:22):
The other thing you need if you're in a drought
region is you need you need a mild April and
a mild May if you do get a bit of
rain to grow like a grass bank or a feedbank
before you head into winter. Obviously it's less important at
the top of the country than the bottom, but you
still want a mild autumn. Are we going to get one?

Speaker 2 (03:41):
Yeah, we're going to risk of frosts on Wednesday, but
most of that is inland, in the high country of
the South Island or tops of the mountains and ranges.
There might be some lower frosts that come down to
lower levels below one hundred meters. It's possible, but yeah,
we're not seeing a lot of frosty weather at the moment,
and the high pressure system that's coming through coming out
of Australia not likely to bring with it a lot

(04:02):
of cold weather other than tomorrow Wednesday morning. Beyond that,
we are seeing warm with than average conditions continuing on
into New Zealand. But you know, like I say, middle
of the month, fifteen days from now, it does look
a lot more turbulent, but wear the pattern around us,
and that could either inject us with an antarctic blast
with air it gets really cold, or it could be

(04:22):
a more tropical one where it's a lot more human.
So we're in that sort of speed wobbles I guess
of going through autumn.

Speaker 1 (04:30):
Phil Duncan, Thanks as always for your time. We'll catch
you again, same time, same place. Next Monday sounds good,
Batman's that's if I turn up to work, because next
Monday's Master's Monday, and I may be, I may I
may be glued to the television. Anyhow, I try my
best to turn up next Monday. Thanks Phil, Cheers,