December 15, 2025 • 6 mins
The Director General of MPI reviews the December Situation and Outlook for the Primary Industries (SOPI) that was released this morning. Kiwi farmers, growers, and primary producers are driving New Zealand’s economy with food and fibre exports set to reach a record $62 billion for the year to June 30, 2026. The sector now accounts for 83% of all NZ goods exports.
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
It is a day for acronyms today on the country.
As we kick off the show very shortly, in fact,
at one pm, we will have HIFU, which is the
half yearly economic financial Update. Earlier this morning we had
soapy from MPI the situation and outlook for primary industries.
The Director General of MPI is Ray Smith, and Ray,
(00:23):
you keep smashing it out of the park in the
primary sector. Well done.
Speaker 2 (00:28):
Well, what a fabulous result to a forecast to close
the year out three percent growth forecast on top of
thirteen percent last year for the primary sector, and they
will drive us up to sixty two billion dollars and
export innings and we expect that to continue, driven largely,
Jamie Boy by volume lifts for dairy, horticulture and forestry
(00:50):
and in price increases the course for our important red
meat sector. And what a tremendous year they have here.
Speaker 1 (00:56):
Well, red meat's been the star of the stable. Now
let's just go through some of these numbers. We'll start
with the biggest one dairy export revenue lifting one percent
to twenty seven point four billion. That's a hell of
a lot of money. But as we know, the price
globally of milk is going down, So is that going
to put a dampner on your predictions for next year?
Speaker 2 (01:20):
No, I mean you've got to remember that dairy prices
have been sort of excellent record levels. I mean, if
you're paying out milk prices in around the ten dollar mark,
I mean that's phenomenally high. So anything in that nine
dollar range is a tremendous price payer on dairy And
just think about it like this. We've had record milk
(01:40):
solid production in the June to September period. It's up
about three point eight percent on last year. And you know,
part of that has been, you know, farmers having the
confidence to bring in more feeds, so there's been a
lot of subplementary fee to lift production. While prices are
good and we know that past your growth out through
through the summer period is likely to be good with
these along Ninua, with the patterns affecting the North Island.
(02:02):
So look, Newdale is going to continue to produce well,
we'll probably produce more milk solids than we've ever produced
per car and there's a real demand for protein. So yes,
it's come off. It's very very high peaks, but stabilizing.
Speaker 1 (02:13):
It's still a good news. Story meat and wallock sports.
Let's be honest here, it's mainly meet lifting seven percent,
as we said, Star of the Stable to thirteen point
two billion dollars. Do you know what one of the
standout numbers for me was Ray Smith Direct the general
of MPI. Horticulture are clear third now lifting five percent
to nine point two billion. Now it wasn't that long
(02:35):
ago that horticulture and forestry were neck and.
Speaker 2 (02:38):
Neck, absolutely, and now holder culture is chasing that red
meat sector, isn't it? And apples and pairs over one
point two billion is at December. Kivy fruit nine percent growth,
I mean, kiv fruit story is just phenomenal. In fact,
if you look back over the decades, kivy fruit sort
(02:59):
of never material realized until in the last couple of decades.
And you know, I think they've doubled the volume of
trays of red tobey fruit this year, which is very
popular in the Asian markets. And of course, alchid returns
AULTI gate returns for for autidice are just just at
phenomenally high levels. So avocados will go down a little bit.
(03:21):
But cherries we're expecting a really good return on cherries
this year. Because it plays into slightly later Chinese New Year,
just in time for our harvest.
Speaker 1 (03:29):
Forestry export revenue has lifted just two percent to six
point three billion, still very very important, our fourth biggest
export sector, but it would be fair to say it's
had its challenges in the past two or three years.
Speaker 2 (03:43):
Yeah, and he's been quite a bit of consolidation, hasn't
there in some closedowns as well in the in the
forestry sector. But look, we're still, you know, the biggest
supplier of logs into the China market where we have
we have big market share, and sorn timber prices are
very good to the United States, even across the top
of those tariffs that were imposed. So the margins on
(04:05):
sort of our clearwood products that go into the United
States and into Australia are good. So look, I think
I think we'll see that forestry city to slowly pull
its way back through. And of course construction demand has
been low, which is also suppressed that the value of
our product.
Speaker 1 (04:20):
Another couple of numbers to throw out there from me,
These I've cherry picked these, no pun intended. There are
Ray Smith one and every seven people work in food
and fiber and food and fiber now is responsible for
eighty three percent of our export goods earnings. Absolutely fantastic. Now,
I can't let you go on the show this week,
(04:40):
Ray Smith without asking you without any preparation at all. Again,
if to think on your feet here, and I know
you do that for a living. Who is your twenty
twenty five AG Person of the Year.
Speaker 2 (04:52):
Well, Jamie, that gosh, every farmer in New Zealand yep
up for that price in my estimation. But if I
was picking a few key people, I'd say you can't
go past the chip ex sector of Frontier Miles har
Or what an outstanding job he has done and the
time he's been in that job in a big turnaround
this year. But can I also mention a couple of
other people I think phenomenal Pete Connolly, who is chief
(05:14):
Executive ENSCO and Zealand. They have You'll know that we've
just come out of this in bogus thing where we've
declared that we're on the home streetch and we're almost
three of this. Well, that big feed lord at ENSCO,
all the controls have come off that they've been tremendous
in supporting the program and making sure that we got
information out of the beef sector. We just want to
want to thank them for that and what they've done
(05:35):
for that whole beef sector and doing that, and of
course it can't go past my trail blazing, globe trotting
Minister Tom McLay who's he's been out of the country
more than he's been in it, trying to do his
best to get a trade deal for New Zealand.
Speaker 1 (05:50):
Yep Okay, Ray Smith, thank you very much for your
time throughout twenty twenty five and well done to you
guys at MPI. I think we're going to very shortly
officially kick m Bovis for touch for good. Have a
great break. We'll catch you back next year. Thanks.
Speaker 2 (06:05):
Thanks Jamie, have a great Christmas.
It is a day for acronyms today on the country.
As we kick off the show very shortly, in fact,
at one pm, we will have HIFU, which is the
half yearly economic financial Update. Earlier this morning we had
soapy from MPI the situation and outlook for primary industries.
The Director General of MPI is Ray Smith, and Ray,
(00:23):
you keep smashing it out of the park in the
primary sector. Well done.
Speaker 2 (00:28):
Well, what a fabulous result to a forecast to close
the year out three percent growth forecast on top of
thirteen percent last year for the primary sector, and they
will drive us up to sixty two billion dollars and
export innings and we expect that to continue, driven largely,
Jamie Boy by volume lifts for dairy, horticulture and forestry
(00:50):
and in price increases the course for our important red
meat sector. And what a tremendous year they have here.
Speaker 1 (00:56):
Well, red meat's been the star of the stable. Now
let's just go through some of these numbers. We'll start
with the biggest one dairy export revenue lifting one percent
to twenty seven point four billion. That's a hell of
a lot of money. But as we know, the price
globally of milk is going down, So is that going
to put a dampner on your predictions for next year?
Speaker 2 (01:20):
No, I mean you've got to remember that dairy prices
have been sort of excellent record levels. I mean, if
you're paying out milk prices in around the ten dollar mark,
I mean that's phenomenally high. So anything in that nine
dollar range is a tremendous price payer on dairy And
just think about it like this. We've had record milk
(01:40):
solid production in the June to September period. It's up
about three point eight percent on last year. And you know,
part of that has been, you know, farmers having the
confidence to bring in more feeds, so there's been a
lot of subplementary fee to lift production. While prices are
good and we know that past your growth out through
through the summer period is likely to be good with
these along Ninua, with the patterns affecting the North Island.
(02:02):
So look, Newdale is going to continue to produce well,
we'll probably produce more milk solids than we've ever produced
per car and there's a real demand for protein. So yes,
it's come off. It's very very high peaks, but stabilizing.
Speaker 1 (02:13):
It's still a good news. Story meat and wallock sports.
Let's be honest here, it's mainly meet lifting seven percent,
as we said, Star of the Stable to thirteen point
two billion dollars. Do you know what one of the
standout numbers for me was Ray Smith Direct the general
of MPI. Horticulture are clear third now lifting five percent
to nine point two billion. Now it wasn't that long
(02:35):
ago that horticulture and forestry were neck and.
Speaker 2 (02:38):
Neck, absolutely, and now holder culture is chasing that red
meat sector, isn't it? And apples and pairs over one
point two billion is at December. Kivy fruit nine percent growth,
I mean, kiv fruit story is just phenomenal. In fact,
if you look back over the decades, kivy fruit sort
(02:59):
of never material realized until in the last couple of decades.
And you know, I think they've doubled the volume of
trays of red tobey fruit this year, which is very
popular in the Asian markets. And of course, alchid returns
AULTI gate returns for for autidice are just just at
phenomenally high levels. So avocados will go down a little bit.
(03:21):
But cherries we're expecting a really good return on cherries
this year. Because it plays into slightly later Chinese New Year,
just in time for our harvest.
Speaker 1 (03:29):
Forestry export revenue has lifted just two percent to six
point three billion, still very very important, our fourth biggest
export sector, but it would be fair to say it's
had its challenges in the past two or three years.
Speaker 2 (03:43):
Yeah, and he's been quite a bit of consolidation, hasn't
there in some closedowns as well in the in the
forestry sector. But look, we're still, you know, the biggest
supplier of logs into the China market where we have
we have big market share, and sorn timber prices are
very good to the United States, even across the top
of those tariffs that were imposed. So the margins on
(04:05):
sort of our clearwood products that go into the United
States and into Australia are good. So look, I think
I think we'll see that forestry city to slowly pull
its way back through. And of course construction demand has
been low, which is also suppressed that the value of
our product.
Speaker 1 (04:20):
Another couple of numbers to throw out there from me,
These I've cherry picked these, no pun intended. There are
Ray Smith one and every seven people work in food
and fiber and food and fiber now is responsible for
eighty three percent of our export goods earnings. Absolutely fantastic. Now,
I can't let you go on the show this week,
(04:40):
Ray Smith without asking you without any preparation at all. Again,
if to think on your feet here, and I know
you do that for a living. Who is your twenty
twenty five AG Person of the Year.
Speaker 2 (04:52):
Well, Jamie, that gosh, every farmer in New Zealand yep
up for that price in my estimation. But if I
was picking a few key people, I'd say you can't
go past the chip ex sector of Frontier Miles har
Or what an outstanding job he has done and the
time he's been in that job in a big turnaround
this year. But can I also mention a couple of
other people I think phenomenal Pete Connolly, who is chief
(05:14):
Executive ENSCO and Zealand. They have You'll know that we've
just come out of this in bogus thing where we've
declared that we're on the home streetch and we're almost
three of this. Well, that big feed lord at ENSCO,
all the controls have come off that they've been tremendous
in supporting the program and making sure that we got
information out of the beef sector. We just want to
want to thank them for that and what they've done
(05:35):
for that whole beef sector and doing that, and of
course it can't go past my trail blazing, globe trotting
Minister Tom McLay who's he's been out of the country
more than he's been in it, trying to do his
best to get a trade deal for New Zealand.
Speaker 1 (05:50):
Yep Okay, Ray Smith, thank you very much for your
time throughout twenty twenty five and well done to you
guys at MPI. I think we're going to very shortly
officially kick m Bovis for touch for good. Have a
great break. We'll catch you back next year. Thanks.
Speaker 2 (06:05):
Thanks Jamie, have a great Christmas.
Popular Podcasts
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.
Dateline NBC
Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations. Follow now to get the latest episodes of Dateline NBC completely free, or subscribe to Dateline Premium for ad-free listening and exclusive bonus content: DatelinePremium.com
The Bobby Bones Show
Listen to 'The Bobby Bones Show' by downloading the daily full replay.