The Country 20/11/25: Dan Boulton talks to Jamie Mackay

The chief executive of Silver Fern Farms, just back from the US, Canada, China and the UK, talks about the great prospects for red meat. We also discuss Trump's tariffs, the Alliance/Dawn Meats deal, the advantage of recapitalising a balance sheet, and why SFF is getting behind the Southern Storm Shout.

 

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Dan Bolton is the chief executive of Silver Fir and Farms,
our biggest meat company. In the past two months has
been in US, Canada, China and the UK in a
perfect position to judge the prospects for our red meat industry.
They are all of our big red meat markets and Dan,
at the Prime Minister's breakfast at the christ Church Show
last week, the Prime Minister was quoting you, so you

(00:22):
obviously got on his air and told him of the
great prospects for red meat.

Speaker 2 (00:26):
Good afternoon, Good afternoon, Jamie. Yes, has been pretty fantastic
signals coming back from the market. You know, a year
ago we said the world's going to be short on
protein and we're seeing that play out in all our
key markets, which is just an outstanding place to be.
So you know, we're it's the US and we know
what's driving that. You know, the lowest heard numbers for
a long time, so we're in at least a good

(00:46):
couple of years of good, strong beef pricing up there.
But you know, we're seeing huge beef demand and all
our other key markets as well. And what's been a
big standout is Europe. In the UK, you know, we've
got our free trade agreements up there, and actually we've
filled all our quota into that market and they want
more of our product, which is which is outstanding. And
you know, what we're seeing also is that it's not

(01:07):
only a good demand for protein and good demand for
all of our species. You know, these customers are really
gravitating to you know, our usual farming system and our
sustainability leadership, and it's just opening up doors and opportunities
all over the place, which is great, and I think
our challenges. You know, we've also got load beef numbers
at this point in time, load point of the beef cycle,

(01:27):
so you know, how do we service those right customers
and eximiser value back to our farmers. But things are
looking very positive and it's been our key message on
our roadshows that look positive for you know, for the
for the years ahead.

Speaker 1 (01:39):
Last weekend we had Trump dropping the tar OFFFS on
beef and key we fruit. Is that going to make
a jot of difference in the short term anyhow to
what key We farmers are receiving for their beef, because
basically the US consumers or the US importers were picking
up the tear of anyhow.

Speaker 2 (01:54):
Yeah, I mean at a very high level. It's you know,
it's good news, it's positives that those those tariffs have
come off. But as we know, trade is anything but straightforward,
so it's going to sort of play out over the
next sort of weeks and months. But I think that
question is there a direct benefit today for farmers, I
think that's gonna be a bit of a challenge. We
did a pretty good diet job as New Zealand that

(02:14):
when the tariffs came on, that we could pass that
on to further up the supply chain, you know, and
it's the importers that wear that cost so clearly, as
those tariffs have come off, you know where those costs
have been worn on the way up, that's where they'll
be looking at recovering those So sort of business as
usual for us, and we'll sort of be managing that
through there. But I think long term, there is significant

(02:35):
demand and we see really favorable price and continuing with
potential upside into the US market. But I think the
big challenge, or the big watch out, and we've talken
to our farmers about that is actually the secondary impacts.
And what wasn't super clear last Friday when this news
came out is around Brazil. You know, we've talked about
that Brazil volume today they are locked out of the

(02:55):
US that are at a seventy six percent tariff, right
and that's creating some real power winds for importers that
continue to supply the US. But if that forty percent
retaliatory tariff came off Brazil and the Brazil rea into
the US, that could cause disruption. And unfortunately, you know,
when it came a bit clearer, that forty percent tariff
remains on Brazil. So you know this at this point

(03:18):
in time, things are relibly favorable. But I guess a
key message to farmers is we've just got to understand
where that Brazil or volume goes. And just for some context,
and then Brazil we exports three and a half million
tons of beef a year and New Zealand does about
five hundred thousand, so quite a big volume where that
product ends up. And you know, so just watching what
happens with Brazil in the US, there's probably our big

(03:40):
watch out. But then that could create opportunities in other
markets because right now Brazil's flowing into China, so if
they return back into the US, maybe there's more beef
opportunity for growth and value back into the China market.
So it's a bit of a swings and roundabouts, but
you know, that's trade and we do a pretty good
job in New Zealand navigating those things. All right.

Speaker 1 (03:58):
We've talked about Beth. The prospects for beef certainly in
the next couple of years seem very good. Indeed, is
LAMB equally as positive it is Jamie.

Speaker 2 (04:06):
I mean, so, first of all, the market's underpinning the
schedules on in land, which is fantastic to see. And
then land we've had almost two years of really good
returns that everyone's enjoying, which is excellent. What's I think
really exciting right now is it's Europe and the UK
particularly there to driving the favorable returns and behind the

(04:27):
farm gate schedule. And I think last time we saw
favorable schedules it was because China was driving that. So
we've got those two markets underpinning the LAMB schedule, and
China is improving every month. So as China improves again,
that's just going to underpin the LAMB schedule. And that's
why I'm confident that we should also have a favorable
land outlock as well, and you know, getting our lamb

(04:48):
farmers back into a growth mindset is going to be important.
But I think the only caution I would say is
that lad pricing and market is at levels we haven't
seen before, and there's always a risk that they could
tip off and we come falling on the other side.
I just think where supply is and how short it
is on all protein types that actually protein prices globally
have been reset. So I think we are a new

(05:09):
territory and our customers are telling let us as well,
But we just need to be really careful as exporters
that we don't push it too far and cause that
awful crash that we've seen before. So I don't think
we're in that territory that's our job to avoid. But
I think, you know, there's enough signals and enough market
tension in China slowly recovering that we're going to keep
our land pricing favorable as well.

Speaker 1 (05:30):
I think we'll take that just a couple will quickly
finish on what did you make from the outside looking
into the alliance? Dawn meat Steele sixty five thirty five
partnership Winston Peters, of course has been arguing with lots
of people, including myself about this one. He says that
the silver fir and farm Steel, when you had a
fifty to fifty joint venture with Shanghai Mailing, was a disaster.

(05:52):
You'd sold the family's silverware. Has it been a disaster
for you?

Speaker 2 (05:56):
I think quite opposite. I think it was pretty challenging
point in time. I started just after that deal was completed,
and I can tell you, you know, having a recapitalized balance
sheet and the things that we've been able to do
and grow our business to where it is today has
all come on the back of that investment. So yeah,
I think saying it's a disaster, I think that couldn't

(06:16):
be any further from any further from the truth. So
great to see Alliance being recapitalized, you know, and we
wish them all the best. You know, they're a strong
partner here in New Zealand and then market and Dawn's
a reputable partner in the meat industry as well. So yeah,
look forward to how that all plays out now next Thursday.

Speaker 1 (06:36):
At nige Or Woodheads Farm, he was the twenty nrginal
the Ands Farm. He was the twenty seventeen young Farmer
of the Year. We're going to host a Southern Storm
shout for all the farmers in South Otago and South
London who got blown away. It wasn't only the farmers
you got hammered. You guys lost the roof on Finnigan,
your big meat processing plants in bell Cluther.

Speaker 2 (06:56):
Yeah, we had three of our processing sites caught up
in that windstorm, which was, as you've seen, absolutely pretty horrific.
And yeah, one of our big roofs in Finngland got
knocked out, and you know, I just want to do
a big call out. You know, the local contractors and
they dropped everything and they worked through the long weekend
to get ourselves back up and running. So you know,
easy saw everyone comes together to get things done, whether

(07:18):
it's on farm or you know, supporting us, and I
just really wanted a big call out for that. But
it's pretty it's pretty eye opening when you drive through
the whole South Tago region and see the damage there.
It's going to take a long time to recover. There's
a lot of work ahead, you know, but the resilience
of our farm and community and seeing people come together
and you know, events what Nigel and Leanna are doing

(07:38):
it just outstanding to get people together and you have
a bit of a recess and catch up and talk
and you know, looking forward to supporting that next week.

Speaker 1 (07:47):
Yeah, well, thank you very much for providing the meat
for the barbie. Thanks to Emerson's and Spats and I
think A and Z's even helping with the coffee card.
It would be interesting to see how much business they do.
As Dan Bolton, chief executive of Silver of Firn Farms,
thanks for your time, thanks for your support

Speaker 2 (08:03):
Great jamming, great to talk