November 17, 2025 • 38 mins
Jamie Mackay talks to Nigel Woodhead, Cameron Bagrie, Jane Smith, Stefan Vogel, and Jo Luxton.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Catch all the latest from the land. It's the Country
Podcast with Jamie McKay. Thanks to Fred You're specialist in
John Deere construction equipment.
Speaker 2 (00:16):
Cold beer, hot women and cold Colter music. Refen.
Speaker 3 (00:23):
I came here for wile.
Speaker 4 (00:27):
I'll pay.
Speaker 3 (00:28):
It's drinking Hong Gitol Man Rock. We want cold beer,
hot women and part music. Get any Zealand and welcome
to the country. Cold beer, hot women and cold country music.
Well we might ha to get two out of three
this time or this week, next week, Thursday week. In fact,
(00:51):
we're going to tell you all about that very very
shortly as we do something to cheer up the spirits
of the farmers who got hammered by the big window.
Cameron Baggriy's on the show and dependent Economist got a
really interesting email from a young Northland dairy farmer about
feed additives to feed cattle and dairy cattle to prevent
(01:13):
methane emissions. He's very worried about this. So I'm going
to get a north Otago farmer, Jane Smith to respond
to the Northland dairy farmer. Stephan Vogel from Rabobank on
their agri commodity outlook for twenty twenty six. Geopolitics playing
a huge role there, and Joe Luxton is Labour's egg spokesperson.
(01:34):
When are they going to come out with some ag policy?
We might ask you that one. But kicking off the
show today from South Otago is the twenty seventeen New
Zealand Young Farmer of the Year, Nigel Wardhead. Nigel, it's
nearly four weeks on from that big event. How's the
recovery going.
Speaker 5 (01:53):
Yeah, afternoon, Jamie. Well right here, it's going pretty slowly. Actually,
we've fled out do another farm job. Yeah, we got
sort of one pedict that we needed to get tidied
up because it was in a work pedict. We got
it tidied up pretty quickly in the fence back up,
but pretty much everything out on the ghost fled out
drink and lambs today and we've got crop peedicks of
(02:14):
spray out and all sorts of other springtime jobs to
do as well. So the cleanup will start, or has started,
but it'll get started in an earnest once we have
some spare time.
Speaker 3 (02:25):
Yeah, realistically this couldn't have come at a worse time
of the year if it had happened. For instance, no
time is a good time. But if this had happened
in March or April, at least you would have more
time on the farm.
Speaker 5 (02:37):
No, one hundred percent. Yeah, but at the same time,
we don't have any control over it, so we'll we'll,
we'll get on with it. We've sort of got we're
invested in a bit of gear to make life a
bit easier, and we know all the digger contractors around
the place, for in the logging contractors around the place.
We're going to do pretty well out of it. But
we'll just chip away and get get it tidied up
(02:59):
when we when again.
Speaker 3 (03:00):
We know that North Canterbury is, particularly the colvin and
Ere area that basin was badly hit. The pivots have
been smashed, some of them won't get replacement parts until
the new year, so that's going to be a real
challenge in a dry spring early summer on the east
coast of the North and South Islands. It would appear
(03:23):
to me that like South Otago down South has been
as badly hit as anywhere.
Speaker 5 (03:29):
Yeah, No, you're right, you're right.
Speaker 6 (03:31):
I don't know.
Speaker 5 (03:31):
We've all the other disasters around the country over the
last ten or fifteen years. We've managed to dodge. You know,
we haven't had any earthquakes or floods or winds or
anything much up until now, so it was it was
our time to get something. I suppose was my way
thinking about it. But yeah, there are definitely patches that
have had an absolute hammering. And you know, we've got
a few plantations here and they look pretty bad from
(03:53):
the outside. We had our forestry advis that come in
the other day and have a look around just so
we knew what was going on and PC Yet it's
not good. You've got a lot of fences flat, but
some people have got teens of hecbs trees like flatters
flat on the ground, not a single tree standing. So
we've escaped relatively unscathed. Really, we're probably I haven't had
a count up, but I'll guess a couple of kilometers
(04:14):
of fencing on the ground. But apart from the fences,
we've lost one fourteen gate and that's the only thing
of note. So we've been pretty lucky. But some people
have been really badly affected. And then with tree lines
and hedges and things, winning lambs in the next four
to six weeks is going to be pretty tough for
some people.
Speaker 3 (04:34):
Yeah, any good fences to keep them in one place.
I was in christ Church last week we launched the
the Kaiser, our annual bear promotional bear with the team
from Emerson's, the Emerson's Tiny Pub. What a great spell
they had, not only at the christ Church or the
Canterbury Amp Show and of course the races at Rickerton,
but we had a great day all be at a
(04:55):
very wet day last Thursday. The bloke, the marketing manager
for Emerson's as a guy by the name Greg Mensis,
and he said to me last week. Do you know
what he said? When I get this thing back down
from Christchurch, I'd like to take it south somewhere and
shout the farmers, no strings attached, just turn up, have
a few beers on a bit of a feed on
us and a few other sponsors, and we've decided to
(05:17):
invite ourselves to your place next Thursday.
Speaker 2 (05:20):
Yeah.
Speaker 5 (05:20):
Well, I'd love to take some of the credit, but
all the credit needs to go to the Emersons guys,
and you, Jamie for linking us all up. So when
you rang me, I couldn't you know it's an opportunity
to have a couple of mobile bars turn up at
your farm you can't say no to. So yeah, we
made some phone calls the local Lions club. He rustled
up a couple of sponsors and are going to get
(05:40):
some going to get some meat, some local and some
provided by Silver and Farms. And yeah, so all the
a few refreshments provided by Emersons and some meat provided
by some locals and Silver and Farms and it should
be good afternoon.
Speaker 3 (05:57):
Well, Emerson's is of course under the line I am Umbrella.
You know their other brand and iconic southern brand Spates. Well,
Hayden Finch is a good South Otago boy. He got
wonder this and he said, if it's good enough for
Emerson's to bring the tiny pub down, he wants to
bring the Spates bar down. So you got two for
the price or one.
Speaker 5 (06:18):
Yeah, it's going to be. It's going to be a
good afternoon. So encourage anyone who's been affected by the
winds and south west of Tago the southlift if you
feel like and off a couple of tubes and some
barbecue food. And there were probably some your rubbish yarns
running around then yeah, come on out.
Speaker 3 (06:37):
And the good news is the good news is Niger.
We have a health and safety plan, so we're going
to look after you while you're there, make sure you
get there and back safely. More about that, that's next Thursday.
Anyone who's been affected by the wind event, even if
you want to drive down from North Canterbury, you're most
welcome to join us. We'll tell you where and how
and why over the next couple of days. But I
(06:58):
just wanted to get this out you because the trouble
at this time of the year, nug or if you
get a nice, fine sunny day, I'm assuming a lot
of farmers will probably be flat out making silence or
something like that. So it's a bit of a pig
and a poke.
Speaker 5 (07:11):
Yeah, and you know the way it's shaping up. We
might have drip drills here, we might have playlish contractors
as well, but that's all part of farming. But yeah,
like if everybody's flared out then they won't be able
to make it. But hopefully with a with ten days
roughly warning, we might be able to get workloads sort
(07:32):
of sort of out and make a bit of a
plan so we can give a few people along. But
obviously realistically it's probably the busiest time of year on
farm doing here.
Speaker 3 (07:39):
Yep, well they never look a gift toss in the mouth.
You are the twenty sex or worthy twenty seventh or
you still are. Actually it's not past tense. You are
the twenty seventeen Young Farmer of the Year. Your sheep
and beef. How much beef are your? God?
Speaker 5 (07:52):
Not enough?
Speaker 2 (07:53):
Not enough? Yeah?
Speaker 3 (07:54):
Because you, I mean, if you're a beef farmer at
the moment Old Trump dropped the terraffs and you and
I'm going to be catching up with Stefan Vogel shortly
from Rabobank and I just read had a look at
their agri commodity outlook. This is the global one for
twenty twenty six and beef's looking as good as anything.
Speaker 5 (08:12):
Yeah, no things, things have taken on pretty good. We
rare freezing bull calves off dairy farms and then take
them through to eighty months. So our our yeelings are
looking pretty good, and so I hope you will be
able to start killing them in the new year. And
then we've actually gone up a wee hand for calves
ready for the following year too, because sort of want
(08:32):
to get into a few more beefies. But it's yeah,
it's good to see a bit of positivity and even
lamb's looking positive. Yeah, I'm drenching lambs today and they're
looking good. So hopefully if they keep growing and the
price days where it is, we hopefully it will be
in a reasonable for a reasonable year.
Speaker 3 (08:47):
Well this time next Thursday. Talking about lamb, hopefully we'll
be chewing a bit of it at your place thanks
to Silver Firm Farms.
Speaker 5 (08:54):
No worries, we'll look looking forward to it.
Speaker 3 (08:57):
Put on your Nigel and thanks for hosting Estair's Nigel
wardhead South Otago farmer and honestly they if you drive
down there, they have been smacked some awful damage. So
we'll tell you all about that. If you've been affected
by the wind event, don't have to be a farmer.
We'd love to see you come along. It's just display
(09:17):
of goodwill from the likes of Emerson's and Spots and
silver Fern Farms. Good on you. We'll have the cold beer.
I don't know about the hot woman, but we'll definitely
have will we have the cool country music. We might
have to play some songs from Iheart's new country radio station,
pretty good stuff right up next. I might actually have
(09:37):
to go to Stephan Vogel because he's busy. He needs
to go. I've just got a text and he needs
to go next, so we might go to him. Hopefully
Cameron Baggery won't be insulted. I'll catch up with him
as well, or one or the other. I just need
to see if I can get one of them next.
Jane Smith before the end of the hour, and Joe Luxton,
(09:58):
who is of course Labour's egg spokes person. Interesting times
politically in this country at the moment. Women and country music.
Speaker 1 (10:13):
My past first mile had a couple of beautiful girls.
Tell me you're a tru to break down. Don't run
out politicians lib be found out of polity.
Speaker 3 (10:25):
One counterpeigns at I could leave. That's all playing for
a while being never broke my heart? How do he?
Speaker 1 (10:34):
Yeha?
Speaker 3 (10:35):
That's American country music for you right Well here it
is here, Sorry indulging myself. Cameron Beagrie, independent economist. America
is very much at the forefront of our minds economically
in this country because one man on this planet is
dominating proceedings more than anyone else. Trump, Eh, what do
(10:57):
you reckon?
Speaker 6 (10:59):
Well, it's not just about Donald Trump. There's an awful
lot of political geo strategic tension here between our biggest
trading barner that's China and there are seventeen billion dollar
market in the United States is nine point five And
at the moment we've lived in this low volatility. We
called it the era of the Great Moderation over the
(11:20):
nineteen nineties, the sort of two thousands where the world
played reasonably nice. It feels like at the moment gef
political get strategic considerations at the forefront. The academics of
trade is a lot more about security of trade, security
and regard to food security and energy security and technological
advancement ie the Chips. And there's a bit of a
(11:43):
ding dong that's going on around the globe at the moment,
and New Zealand's trying to play a little in Switzerland
in the middle.
Speaker 3 (11:50):
Yeah, Well, we are going to be chatting to Stephan
Vogel shortly about this geopolitical tension between the US and China.
It's sort of the Cold War revers it, isn't it.
But let's just stick to the domestic front here at
this stage, because we're going to have a look at
the global outlook with him Cameron Vagrey. We've got an
official cash rate announcement, the final one for the year
(12:12):
next week. Everyone seems to be an agreement or are
they that we get another twenty five basis points and
that's our lot.
Speaker 6 (12:20):
Yeah, I think it's one and done. What we're now
starting to see is what the data is turned. So
it doesn't matter whether you look at ours worked, whether
you look at the export numbers. Building sense are still low,
but they're directly heading up off a low base track.
The sales are on the up, ther traffic volumes around
(12:42):
the country. We're getting a pretty consistent message at the moment.
The economy's not knocking the ball out of the park.
There's still pockets of weakness out there. The South Island's
better than the North Island, Auckland and Wellington sort of
at the back end of the pack in regard to
what's going on. But you know, you got an economy
that's turning the corner. Interest rates in regard to fixed
(13:05):
mortgage rates. People are still going to benefit from that
for another of twelve months. I don't think there's any
reason at the moment for the Reserve Bank to be
over the aggressive at this point because let's not forget Yeah, Jamie,
he'd gone inflation's got back up to three percent, and
the targets too.
Speaker 3 (13:20):
I don't want to steal Stephan Virgel's I want to
keep my powder dry for him. Should I say? I
don't want to steal his march on this one? But
in their report, they're talking about global GDP growth two
point nine percent this year, but it eases to two
points seven percent in twenty twenty six. That's probably in
contrast to what's going to happen to the New Zealand economy.
Speaker 6 (13:43):
Yeah, well, we got beaten up a lot more than
the global economy New Zealand's had. Yeah, GDP are capital,
which is population adjusted growth has fallen by five percent
in the past three years, which is already not in
the stuffing out of your economy and knocking the stuff
in at a living standards you. At the same time,
(14:05):
you've seen other economies around the globe. You're some of
the big players, you know, the United States has been
rocking and rolling for the past suit a couple of years.
Your march into their own tune. At the same time,
China has been going pretty well with There's debate here
over whether the data is right. You've got India that's
been marching along to a six seven percent growth numbers.
(14:26):
Your Europe has struggled as well. Australia has been down
on the dumps as well. So you've got a bit
of a two tiered economy. But if you I guess,
if you sit back to look at the bigger picture,
if I go back ten to fifteen years, your global
growth used to be up around three point five percent,
so number around two point nine two point seven that
(14:46):
face fed he still looks pretty good, but it's well
below the averages of what we've been used to the
International Monetary Fund's chief economists, you may use the phrase.
I think it was about six to twelve months ago
she talked about the settus like populations and one of
the things that's driving there is that as global growth
is less fast or a little bit slower, it's actually
(15:09):
driving a lot of fragmentation division to what's called the
political periphery around the globe. And when you got drive
into the political periphery the far left and the far right,
well WA's out.
Speaker 3 (15:19):
Hey really quickly to finish on and were you surprised
by that recent survey that came out I think earlier
this week that marked the government at three point nine
out of ten, but more importantly marked labor as being
the most capable of sorting out, for instance, cost of
living in the economy. That's the normal domain of the NATS.
Speaker 6 (15:40):
Yeah. Well, if I go back and have a look
at the twenty twenty three around September version of the
Epsossi's monitor, what we got from that in twenty and
twenty three was at the National Party was assessed I
think off the top of the head as best able
to handle eight of the top ten issues and fifteen
of the top twenty. If you look at the scoreboard
(16:01):
at the moment, the National Party of the top twenty
has got two hits, Ie, their assess has been able
to handle two issues out of the top twenty. It's
like a red Smalls board. And what we've got I'm
not at the moment. And what that's telling you, Jamie,
is that there is a right move to change across
this economy and your cost of living is just ruthless.
(16:24):
It is hurting families out there. You've got housing, you've
got healthcare, and the big flipper at the moment is
it the National Party is the top dog status in
regard to being assess has been best able to handle
the economy, and that I suspect will be have a
little bit of soul sut that's going on behind the
scenes in regard to what sort of message they is sending.
Speaker 3 (16:43):
Cameron Bagri there independent economists look forward to that OCR
announcement next week. Yep, one more to go and one
and we're done, said Cameron. Going to take a break.
On the other side of it, someone else is taking
a break from apparently a very windy hill in north Otaga,
was Jane Smith? Good as your mind. Jane Smith is
(17:10):
a north Otago farmer, regular hair on the country. You
never die wondering what she's thinking. What's she thinking today?
Because as we speak, Jane, you've taken a break from
your lunch break to chat to us. You're stuck behind
a rock or somewhere high on the hills on you
on your farm there, sheltering from a gale northwesterly. Are
you guys really starting to get quite dry in north Otago?
Speaker 7 (17:30):
Well, good afternoon, Jamie, Yeah, we certainly are. I mean
that there's been seven weeks of Norweister's We had a
bit of a reprieve last week from the Norwest, so
that was good for people that were tailing, et cetera.
And I guess the other concerning thing is if it's
if it's northwest to here it is, it'll be pouring
with rain on the west coast and those sort of
western parts of Central Target that have just had enough, Jamie,
(17:53):
and and in Southend as well. So it's a really
tricky not as dry as Hawk's Day and probably and
definitely as dry as North Canterbury, but we're certainly getting there, Jamie.
And it's just not the best working conditions working with
Blair anyway, live alone and an oyster.
Speaker 3 (18:07):
I'm on blairs side on this one. I think I
think he'd be the peacemaker in the relationship. I got
an email yesterday from a young Northland dairy farmer. I
hope he doesn't mind me reading this out. I've forwarded
it on to you. His name is Nathan Chestnut. He said,
I'm a young dairy farmer in Northland, still have about
forty or fifty years to go if the country plays
(18:28):
its cards right. So that's a good, ambitious and positive
approach to take to start with he's very really worried
because he says Norway has legislated a mandate that all
dairy cattle must be fed with a feed additive as
a part of its climate policy. Now farmers are reporting
health issues amongst their animals, i e. Abnormal behavior, refusal
(18:49):
of feed intake, and even death. Now you are, when
you're not farming with Blair, you are the poster girl
for the Methane Science Accord. This is what you guys
are banging on about.
Speaker 7 (19:00):
Yeah, well we've had a lot of concerns about this
for some time now, jamieen and it's interesting to see
this really highlighted and Denmark over the last few weeks.
And obviously, as some of your listeners will know, the
active ingredient is let me get this right, three nitro
oxy pro panel, which is THREEP. So it's essentially an
(19:22):
enzyme that's used by nathanolgenic microbes to that produce methane
to block the enzyme, so essentially works to alter the
micro bio and the stomach, which is particularly concerning given
all the knowledge we now have around the stomach by
health really being a key tenant and being healthy whether
you're a cow or a human and that is really concerning.
(19:45):
So and I guess what we've looked into is as
we know that the consumers generally do not want to
consume it, and you know, and their meat and their milk,
and why would you farmers don't want to use it
because of the because of the cost, and the no
rational rational reason why you'd have to use it. And
also you know, again ninety three percent of our two
(20:05):
thousand farmers in New Zealand that we've still had said
they will not use it. Now the Danish government had
mandated its uses, Nathan Rtney says, and their intense farmings
obviously quite too. You know, it's a feedlot system rather
than our our free range pastoral systems here. So they've
done that for a piece of climate change colt over there.
(20:26):
And last week both the government and the Danish Missionary
Association issue to press release allowing farmers to actually withdraw
from using it if they suspect health conditions and because
animal welfare has been compromised. And I now see that
the UK have also stopped the trials that they were
doing with it as well. So again really concerning that
we are currently putting tax payer money into essentially the
(20:49):
same the same type of feed aditives and vaccines, et
cetera that will be altering, you know, the natural ruminante processes.
Speaker 3 (20:57):
Jamie, Jane, come on, let's be honest here. This is
you just shoving a bowl that's right up the backside
of agri zero n Z.
Speaker 6 (21:04):
Yeah.
Speaker 7 (21:04):
Well again, Jamie, You know that the big concerns here
are you know, animal health concerns. We don't know the
long term impact. But also the biggest one is actually
they're not needed at all. All of these tools will
make about as much difference to global temperatures as painting
every fence post in the country would, So that would
be extensive. It would sound good, it would look nice,
but it means it's totally meaningless to global temperatures. And
(21:28):
you know, it's really interesting any time you ask a
politician or an overpaid bureaucrat or a well funded scientist
that's doing methane mitigation science what difference any of this
will make to global temperatures, and they cannot answer it,
and instead, of course they roll out that line about
our global customer. This is what they want. So, you know,
junk food companies NISLA McDonald's this is what they want.
(21:49):
And the really sad thing is it was now in
a country that's paying what is it too million dollars
an hour of just Cinder's interest off an hour, We've
now copped up nearly a billion dollars on chasing me rainbows, Jamien.
Imagine if that same money had been spent on enhance them,
bio diversity, by security, water quality, water storage, pest control.
(22:11):
And it really concerns me that we're hearing Christopher climate
change lots and still rolling out that line. We must
meet our climate, our carbon zero by twenty fifty and
it's an irrational response, a response to it, Jamie. And
three hundred billion dollars could be clocked up by then,
and that's what's at one hundred hospitals and ten years
(22:31):
of the health budget, Jamie. So I will not you know,
I will not back down fighting on this, Jamie, because
again it's not whether or not climate change it is
or isn't happening, it's how we respond to it, Jamie.
And this is absolutely irrational. And again if you look
at photosynthesis and I've just written a article from the
New Zealand Herald on this, it's a closed loop ruminant
(22:52):
animals simply a one cog in the wheel. So we actually,
you know, on a molecule for modicle basis, only three
percent to the cotos all by grass ends up being
returned as methane. And it's a very simple back of
the envelope stuff. In fact, I explained this to a
bous year high school air class last week and they said, yeah,
we know that. They know that, so it's very strange
(23:15):
to their egg sector leaders. Our research scientists continue to
waste money in this area, and I actually I want
to apologize to the textpayer because we are literally wasting
money that could be going into some real r and
d Jamie.
Speaker 3 (23:26):
Okay, look on the bright side, Jane, at least with
Chippy's capital gains tax, you're going to get three free
visits to the doctor each year. Hope you get some
rain in North Otago.
Speaker 7 (23:35):
Thanks Sammy.
Speaker 3 (23:36):
Twenty five away from one. Yeah, we're going to take
a break on the other side of it, Rural News
with Michelle. Apparently we won the Fossil Award at COP
thirty in Brazil. What a waste of time that is.
And we'll have a sports news for you before the
end of the hour. Stephan Vogel and Joe Luxtone.
Speaker 5 (23:52):
Yeah, in mac and be.
Speaker 3 (23:57):
Coldburn twenty two away from one. You're with the country right.
We're going to South Otago, the home patch of Michelle Watt,
Farming show producer, next Thursday for the Farmer's Shout. We've
got the cold beer from Emerson's and Spates. We can
do the country newsic. I could bring my boombox along.
Speaker 8 (24:20):
You could bring your boombox.
Speaker 3 (24:22):
What are we going to do about the hot women?
Are you going to do something? Round up some of
your old mates from South Otago or are there plenty
of them?
Speaker 2 (24:28):
Oh?
Speaker 3 (24:28):
You're going. Jane will probably turn up, will she? I
think everyone here wants to go down.
Speaker 8 (24:34):
I think so. I'm as friendship of South Tago show
from two thousand and three will be there.
Speaker 3 (24:38):
Who's that you? It was me. I didn't realize that
she's I'm working with a beauty queen. Here we go.
We'll see what she's got for rural news to.
Speaker 1 (24:47):
The country's world news with cod Cadets, New Zealand's leading
right on lawn Bower brand is a steel for dot
co dot Nz for your local stockers.
Speaker 3 (24:56):
My older sister Jeanie was Miss Centennial Riversdal in nineteen
seventy two or three. She still you, Sash, Yeah, I
think she does, but she doesn't listen to this show
because she's a bit of a greenie, doesn't like a
younger brother's political views. But I try and be as
neutral as I can. Did we get a fossil award?
We did?
Speaker 8 (25:15):
This is the fourth time New Zealand has actually been
an award of this at COP thirty which is being held
in Brazil just about a week ago or so. So
we won it this year because of the fact that
we weakened the messane emissions policies. So it's a bit
of a dud award. It's kind of like those dud
movie awards that they give out and they're trying to
make that work for the COP.
Speaker 3 (25:35):
But it's about fifty or sixty thousand people are turning
up to this ridiculous How do they get there? Yes, exactly.
Greta would try and go on a boat. Everyone else
flies there.
Speaker 8 (25:46):
Think of the carbon footprint and New Zealand forestry and
the wood processing sector has taken center stage. During a
highly successful trade mission to India, Minister Tom McKay joined
a delegation of thirteen New Zealand companies to India this
week to pursue some new gross opportunities and fun fact, Jamie,
I didn't know this. Wood and wood Products are already
(26:07):
New Zealand's largest goods expert to India, worth one hundred
and thirty four million dollars in the year to June
twenty twenty five, and it's growing.
Speaker 3 (26:14):
Well, there you go, the wonderful trivia fact of the
day from Miss Friendship at the South Otago showIn when.
Speaker 8 (26:21):
Two thousand and three.
Speaker 3 (26:22):
I think, right, I'll go and figure out in the
ad break how old you were.
Speaker 1 (26:26):
Spores on the country with a fco business.
Speaker 4 (26:29):
Well done.
Speaker 3 (26:30):
I got to hurry up because I'm running behind time.
I've got to go to Stephan Vogels, So I've got
time for one story. New Zealand Rugby are pushing and
every game counts mindset to showcase the benefits of the
New Nations Championship format. The biennial event starts next year
with the All Blacks hosting France, Italy and Ireland at
home in July, before visiting Scotland, Wales and England in November.
(26:52):
Interesting format. Up next, we head to Sydney on the country.
Speaker 1 (26:57):
None of that took our Saturday.
Speaker 3 (27:00):
The Rubber Bank has just come out with its agri
Commodity outlook for twenty twenty six has shot fired and anger.
As we look towards a new year. Let's head to
Sydney the Sydney Office to catch up with GM for
RABO Research for Australia in New Zealand steff and Vogel
and Steffan. The headline on this report is more than
(27:21):
just supply and demand factors shape and global agriculture in
twenty twenty six, with geopolitics set to play a crucial role. Surprise, surprise,
good afternoon would have.
Speaker 4 (27:32):
Thought that, Uh yeah, now, Jamie, look, we all know
how much the export destinations and export markets of the
world are impacted by the political positions. But maybe very briefly,
this is a global report and he was released last
week and we've already seen that mister Trump has changed
(27:52):
his mind on beef tariffs. So with that there rare
the changes than the one thing we mentioned is what
is certain is basically the uncertainty remains. We've seen that
one coming in I think for New Zealand. The changes
here in the in the tariffs are actually nothing bad.
It will go back for the beef in quota trade
from the fifteen percent where we've faced now to slightly
(28:13):
under one percent. So that's a good kind of level
playing field now with the ones including US here in Australia.
Speaker 3 (28:20):
I'm sorry, do you think this could be the beginning
of the end for Trump's tariffs?
Speaker 4 (28:26):
Look, I think that the message we've already conveayed for many,
many months is that the threat of a tariff is
more powerful to the president's Trump in the negotiations than
the actual tariff. So whenever the consumer hurts, and with that,
especially on the meat and food prices here, the consumer
in the US is hurting, He's making changes. I don't
(28:47):
think it will be the end of tariffs, but it
might be the end of tariffs or the more exceptions
to come for some of the food products that really
matter to the masses you mentioned.
Speaker 3 (28:58):
Jo. Politics, here's a question for you, and now, are
we now moving into like a Cold war regime China
versus the US, as opposed to Russia versus the US
in the sixties.
Speaker 4 (29:12):
Well, we've already had that thesis for many years out
there that the sides are or the front are shaping
more into a Cold war area. However, if you look
with the Royals most recent treat deal, things even between
the US and China have calmed a little bit down,
but honestly they're only kicking the can one year down
the road. So with that, the good news out of
(29:35):
the deal between China and the US is basically we
will not see the por terriffs implemented, which could have
really changed the way that the freight market is reacting.
We get some more certainty that some soybeans out of
North America move into that Chinese market. But overall for
US in New Zealand and Australia, I think the grain
market takes it, and that's for your feeding costs probably important.
(29:58):
Takes it in a way that there are anti sobeians
in the world market and China will anyway get it
from where wherever they can get it. So with that,
right now they're buying in the US it makes sense
it's cheap. They will move in a few months back
over to South America because that's where the volumes will
come with a new harvest in let's say February March onward.
So with that, China does what makes sense for China.
(30:20):
The US wants to do what makes sense for the US,
but the confronting two sites are not easy to overlap.
So with that, I think there's a bit of window
dressing in those trade deals.
Speaker 3 (30:31):
Stephan, sorry to come over the top of you here,
but I am limited on time. I want to quickly
have a look at some of these individual commodities. Dairy,
we have a global dairy trade auction tonight, futures market
is pointing to perhaps another two percent fall and whole
milk powder. I see the futures market for New Zealand,
and I appreciate that yours is a global report for
(30:52):
the twenty sixth season. Was it nine dollars seventy three
last time I locked?
Speaker 5 (30:56):
So?
Speaker 3 (30:56):
Is that ten dollars? Milk price here in New Zealand
under severe threat?
Speaker 4 (31:01):
We fear there's a bit of pressure still coming from
the world market, because if we're looking into twenty six
there is continued growth in production in the big export
markets from the US but also from South America coming
into the market. So the forward curve is pointing a
little bit to the upside, but overall we see that
market pretty much going sideways to put in the US
(31:24):
at least the futures market sideways to maybe slightly higher,
but the volumes that are coming in the world market
will give us here in New Zealand probably a bit
of a hard time because we need to get our
volumes into that Asian market.
Speaker 3 (31:35):
That seems that there's nothing but good news for.
Speaker 4 (31:37):
Base well for beef, yes, definitely well and mister Trump's
changes in mind came quicker than we could even write
the report. So I think for New Zealand the good
news is basically we're moving from a fifteen percent terriff
back to in quota tariffs of less than one percent.
That brings us more or less at a level playing
field with Australia, which moves from ten percent to enough.
(32:01):
We still have Mexico not being able to move into
that US market because of a disease, and if you
look at others, the Brazilians, that's the big question mark
right now what happens. Remember they got an extra forty
percent tariff on top of the reciprocal tariffs, and the
market for now still expect that that forty percent tariff
will remain in place for a while longer. So overall,
(32:22):
the issue we're seeing there for the Brazilians is that
they may have a bit of a tougher time to
get in the US market, which is good news for US.
Speaker 3 (32:28):
And I want to quote one of your final numbers,
GDP growth forecast for this year at two point nine.
Interestingly for twenty twenty six at two point seven. So
the world economy is still in a sticky place. Hey,
Stefan Vogel out of Rabobanks Sydney office. Really appreciate your
time on the country.
Speaker 4 (32:45):
Thanks having me all of that.
Speaker 3 (32:48):
Thank you, Stefan. Joe Luxton wraps the country up next
Labour's egg spokesperson. I wonder if she's got any policy
for me. Joe Luxton is Labour's agriculture spokesperson. But Joe Luxton,
(33:08):
could you be the next Minister of Agriculture. I'm starting
to get worried.
Speaker 2 (33:13):
Oh why would that? We were you? Jamie?
Speaker 3 (33:15):
Well, let me think, Let me count the ways the
Greens to party MARII the end of farming as we
know it?
Speaker 2 (33:24):
Oh, look that simple Mollock's Jamie, and you know it.
You know it. Under the last Labor government. That wasn't
the end of farming, was it?
Speaker 6 (33:31):
Well?
Speaker 3 (33:31):
You tried your very best with he Walker Echinoa.
Speaker 2 (33:36):
Look, it's a different different labor party, different caucus now,
and we focused on on labor. And if you if
people out there want change, if they're concerned about the
Greens and they're consumed about Tarton and vote for labor
is what I say.
Speaker 3 (33:48):
Let's be honest. Farmers aren't your constituency. Farmers won't get
you the Treasury benches. They're probably going to be a
nuisance in some ways because you never wouldn't. Whatever you do,
you're not going to win them over. So you know
you're constitution tuancy is urban New Zealand. That's how you'll
win the election.
Speaker 2 (34:04):
Look, Labor governs for everybody, Jamie, not just one particular
group or the other. I mean you could flip that
on its side and say that, well, okay, then National
must be the only only part of it looks after
farmers and not others. So I just don't believe that
for a second, Jamie.
Speaker 3 (34:21):
Well Instant tells me, and David Seymour tell me they
look after farmers as well. I'd pick on you a wee,
but Joe, and you're such a nice person. I don't
like doing this, but when are you going to have
some egg policy for me? For instance, what is Labor's
emissions policy. We know that under the current government, eggs
not on the ets. There's no pricing of emissions. That
won't happen under a Labor led government.
Speaker 2 (34:45):
I'm not going to tell you what our climate change
or emissions reductions policies will be. Gibra Russell as our
climate spokesperson. She's currently away at the moment. In what
we do know is obviously the government has currently reduced
its missions the methane targets, and we have asked to
see the information and the science and the advice they
(35:06):
received as to how they came to that position, and
we're still waiting on that as well. So I don't
have anything further to say on our moving emissions reductions
or climate policy.
Speaker 3 (35:18):
Well, I'll wait with baited breath for some policy. Look
as net zero by twenty to fifty now a lost cause.
I see some governments around the world are dumping it.
The Australian opposition is dumping it.
Speaker 2 (35:33):
I don't think that we should give up, but it
is concerning to see the things that this government is
doing that that seems to be moving away from that,
with the different policies initiatives that they are getting rid
of and scraping or reducing.
Speaker 3 (35:47):
Just quickly to finish on Chippy's capital gains tax. Has
he dodged a bit of a political bullet here because
it seems to have been at least met with a
fifty to fifty reception, maybe even better depending on which
you look at, because in the past it's always been
thought of as a poison chalice. But the reception and labor,
(36:07):
you must be reasonably pleased that you've been able to
fly this kite and it hasn't met with widespread anger.
Speaker 2 (36:15):
No, I think it's I think it's a really great,
great policy. And often when you introduce taxes or other things,
people sort of they get it up in arms about it,
don't they. But when people can actually see and understand
what that money that is raised from that will be
spent for, specifically on those three doctors visits, free doctors
visits per Anna, then people can then people feel a
(36:36):
lot better about those things. And we've kept it super simple,
so it's only on profit on commercial or residential properties,
excluding the film come and excluding farms.
Speaker 3 (36:46):
Yeah, yeah, okay, that's good. Why didn't you make the
spend more targeted. I mean, giving everybody, including you and me,
a free doctor's visit. It's a complete waste of time
and it's human nature. You get to December and November
this time of the year and you go, oh, I
haven't had my third free doctor's visit. I might go
and get a full check up, a warrant of fitness
from my doctor. You're just going to clog the health system.
(37:07):
Why not put all that money that you'll get eventually
from a capital gains tax just straight into the health
budget and let them decide where to spend it best.
Speaker 2 (37:17):
I completely disagree with you, Jamie. So are you saying
that you and I if we get free doctor's visit
that then maybe we should look to be paying when
we arrive at the emergency department too. It just doesn't
work that way, Jamie. You know you cannot start.
Speaker 3 (37:29):
Ay emergency department's Joe are for emergencies. If we're going
along to our GP, people like you and I should
be paying. The health system's got enough challenges without us
bludging on it.
Speaker 2 (37:41):
And we have other policies coming out that will help
to tackle that as well that you'll be pleased to
hear when they come out, you know, and one of those.
You know, the more the sooner that people get to
your doctor, the better, because it ends up costing us
left at the other end, and if they do show
up in the ED department. And the other thing that
we announced recently, and I'm not sure if we have two,
is the free civical screening for everyone as well, which
(38:01):
is a fantastic policy.
Speaker 3 (38:02):
Well, I hope it's only for the women, not everyone,
but anyhow, Joe Luxton, I'm going to await this policy eagerly,
along with your egg policy. Always good to chat and debate,
you too, Jamie, Yeah, thank you, Joe.
Speaker 6 (38:15):
Hmm.
Speaker 3 (38:16):
I wonder when we do get that labor agg policy.
Never mind, thanks for coming on the show, Joe. That's
us done and dusted. Catch it tomorrow, bluck.
Speaker 1 (38:26):
Catch all the latest from the land. It's the Country
Podcast with Jamie McGue. Thanks to Brent, You're specialist in
John Deere machinery.
Catch all the latest from the land. It's the Country
Podcast with Jamie McKay. Thanks to Fred You're specialist in
John Deere construction equipment.
Speaker 2 (00:16):
Cold beer, hot women and cold Colter music. Refen.
Speaker 3 (00:23):
I came here for wile.
Speaker 4 (00:27):
I'll pay.
Speaker 3 (00:28):
It's drinking Hong Gitol Man Rock. We want cold beer,
hot women and part music. Get any Zealand and welcome
to the country. Cold beer, hot women and cold country music.
Well we might ha to get two out of three
this time or this week, next week, Thursday week. In fact,
(00:51):
we're going to tell you all about that very very
shortly as we do something to cheer up the spirits
of the farmers who got hammered by the big window.
Cameron Baggriy's on the show and dependent Economist got a
really interesting email from a young Northland dairy farmer about
feed additives to feed cattle and dairy cattle to prevent
(01:13):
methane emissions. He's very worried about this. So I'm going
to get a north Otago farmer, Jane Smith to respond
to the Northland dairy farmer. Stephan Vogel from Rabobank on
their agri commodity outlook for twenty twenty six. Geopolitics playing
a huge role there, and Joe Luxton is Labour's egg spokesperson.
(01:34):
When are they going to come out with some ag policy?
We might ask you that one. But kicking off the
show today from South Otago is the twenty seventeen New
Zealand Young Farmer of the Year, Nigel Wardhead. Nigel, it's
nearly four weeks on from that big event. How's the
recovery going.
Speaker 5 (01:53):
Yeah, afternoon, Jamie. Well right here, it's going pretty slowly. Actually,
we've fled out do another farm job. Yeah, we got
sort of one pedict that we needed to get tidied
up because it was in a work pedict. We got
it tidied up pretty quickly in the fence back up,
but pretty much everything out on the ghost fled out
drink and lambs today and we've got crop peedicks of
(02:14):
spray out and all sorts of other springtime jobs to
do as well. So the cleanup will start, or has started,
but it'll get started in an earnest once we have
some spare time.
Speaker 3 (02:25):
Yeah, realistically this couldn't have come at a worse time
of the year if it had happened. For instance, no
time is a good time. But if this had happened
in March or April, at least you would have more
time on the farm.
Speaker 5 (02:37):
No, one hundred percent. Yeah, but at the same time,
we don't have any control over it, so we'll we'll,
we'll get on with it. We've sort of got we're
invested in a bit of gear to make life a
bit easier, and we know all the digger contractors around
the place, for in the logging contractors around the place.
We're going to do pretty well out of it. But
we'll just chip away and get get it tidied up
(02:59):
when we when again.
Speaker 3 (03:00):
We know that North Canterbury is, particularly the colvin and
Ere area that basin was badly hit. The pivots have
been smashed, some of them won't get replacement parts until
the new year, so that's going to be a real
challenge in a dry spring early summer on the east
coast of the North and South Islands. It would appear
(03:23):
to me that like South Otago down South has been
as badly hit as anywhere.
Speaker 5 (03:29):
Yeah, No, you're right, you're right.
Speaker 6 (03:31):
I don't know.
Speaker 5 (03:31):
We've all the other disasters around the country over the
last ten or fifteen years. We've managed to dodge. You know,
we haven't had any earthquakes or floods or winds or
anything much up until now, so it was it was
our time to get something. I suppose was my way
thinking about it. But yeah, there are definitely patches that
have had an absolute hammering. And you know, we've got
a few plantations here and they look pretty bad from
(03:53):
the outside. We had our forestry advis that come in
the other day and have a look around just so
we knew what was going on and PC Yet it's
not good. You've got a lot of fences flat, but
some people have got teens of hecbs trees like flatters
flat on the ground, not a single tree standing. So
we've escaped relatively unscathed. Really, we're probably I haven't had
a count up, but I'll guess a couple of kilometers
(04:14):
of fencing on the ground. But apart from the fences,
we've lost one fourteen gate and that's the only thing
of note. So we've been pretty lucky. But some people
have been really badly affected. And then with tree lines
and hedges and things, winning lambs in the next four
to six weeks is going to be pretty tough for
some people.
Speaker 3 (04:34):
Yeah, any good fences to keep them in one place.
I was in christ Church last week we launched the
the Kaiser, our annual bear promotional bear with the team
from Emerson's, the Emerson's Tiny Pub. What a great spell
they had, not only at the christ Church or the
Canterbury Amp Show and of course the races at Rickerton,
but we had a great day all be at a
(04:55):
very wet day last Thursday. The bloke, the marketing manager
for Emerson's as a guy by the name Greg Mensis,
and he said to me last week. Do you know
what he said? When I get this thing back down
from Christchurch, I'd like to take it south somewhere and
shout the farmers, no strings attached, just turn up, have
a few beers on a bit of a feed on
us and a few other sponsors, and we've decided to
(05:17):
invite ourselves to your place next Thursday.
Speaker 2 (05:20):
Yeah.
Speaker 5 (05:20):
Well, I'd love to take some of the credit, but
all the credit needs to go to the Emersons guys,
and you, Jamie for linking us all up. So when
you rang me, I couldn't you know it's an opportunity
to have a couple of mobile bars turn up at
your farm you can't say no to. So yeah, we
made some phone calls the local Lions club. He rustled
up a couple of sponsors and are going to get
(05:40):
some going to get some meat, some local and some
provided by Silver and Farms. And yeah, so all the
a few refreshments provided by Emersons and some meat provided
by some locals and Silver and Farms and it should
be good afternoon.
Speaker 3 (05:57):
Well, Emerson's is of course under the line I am Umbrella.
You know their other brand and iconic southern brand Spates. Well,
Hayden Finch is a good South Otago boy. He got
wonder this and he said, if it's good enough for
Emerson's to bring the tiny pub down, he wants to
bring the Spates bar down. So you got two for
the price or one.
Speaker 5 (06:18):
Yeah, it's going to be. It's going to be a
good afternoon. So encourage anyone who's been affected by the
winds and south west of Tago the southlift if you
feel like and off a couple of tubes and some
barbecue food. And there were probably some your rubbish yarns
running around then yeah, come on out.
Speaker 3 (06:37):
And the good news is the good news is Niger.
We have a health and safety plan, so we're going
to look after you while you're there, make sure you
get there and back safely. More about that, that's next Thursday.
Anyone who's been affected by the wind event, even if
you want to drive down from North Canterbury, you're most
welcome to join us. We'll tell you where and how
and why over the next couple of days. But I
(06:58):
just wanted to get this out you because the trouble
at this time of the year, nug or if you
get a nice, fine sunny day, I'm assuming a lot
of farmers will probably be flat out making silence or
something like that. So it's a bit of a pig
and a poke.
Speaker 5 (07:11):
Yeah, and you know the way it's shaping up. We
might have drip drills here, we might have playlish contractors
as well, but that's all part of farming. But yeah,
like if everybody's flared out then they won't be able
to make it. But hopefully with a with ten days
roughly warning, we might be able to get workloads sort
(07:32):
of sort of out and make a bit of a
plan so we can give a few people along. But
obviously realistically it's probably the busiest time of year on
farm doing here.
Speaker 3 (07:39):
Yep, well they never look a gift toss in the mouth.
You are the twenty sex or worthy twenty seventh or
you still are. Actually it's not past tense. You are
the twenty seventeen Young Farmer of the Year. Your sheep
and beef. How much beef are your? God?
Speaker 5 (07:52):
Not enough?
Speaker 2 (07:53):
Not enough? Yeah?
Speaker 3 (07:54):
Because you, I mean, if you're a beef farmer at
the moment Old Trump dropped the terraffs and you and
I'm going to be catching up with Stefan Vogel shortly
from Rabobank and I just read had a look at
their agri commodity outlook. This is the global one for
twenty twenty six and beef's looking as good as anything.
Speaker 5 (08:12):
Yeah, no things, things have taken on pretty good. We
rare freezing bull calves off dairy farms and then take
them through to eighty months. So our our yeelings are
looking pretty good, and so I hope you will be
able to start killing them in the new year. And
then we've actually gone up a wee hand for calves
ready for the following year too, because sort of want
(08:32):
to get into a few more beefies. But it's yeah,
it's good to see a bit of positivity and even
lamb's looking positive. Yeah, I'm drenching lambs today and they're
looking good. So hopefully if they keep growing and the
price days where it is, we hopefully it will be
in a reasonable for a reasonable year.
Speaker 3 (08:47):
Well this time next Thursday. Talking about lamb, hopefully we'll
be chewing a bit of it at your place thanks
to Silver Firm Farms.
Speaker 5 (08:54):
No worries, we'll look looking forward to it.
Speaker 3 (08:57):
Put on your Nigel and thanks for hosting Estair's Nigel
wardhead South Otago farmer and honestly they if you drive
down there, they have been smacked some awful damage. So
we'll tell you all about that. If you've been affected
by the wind event, don't have to be a farmer.
We'd love to see you come along. It's just display
(09:17):
of goodwill from the likes of Emerson's and Spots and
silver Fern Farms. Good on you. We'll have the cold beer.
I don't know about the hot woman, but we'll definitely
have will we have the cool country music. We might
have to play some songs from Iheart's new country radio station,
pretty good stuff right up next. I might actually have
(09:37):
to go to Stephan Vogel because he's busy. He needs
to go. I've just got a text and he needs
to go next, so we might go to him. Hopefully
Cameron Baggery won't be insulted. I'll catch up with him
as well, or one or the other. I just need
to see if I can get one of them next.
Jane Smith before the end of the hour, and Joe Luxton,
(09:58):
who is of course Labour's egg spokes person. Interesting times
politically in this country at the moment. Women and country music.
Speaker 1 (10:13):
My past first mile had a couple of beautiful girls.
Tell me you're a tru to break down. Don't run
out politicians lib be found out of polity.
Speaker 3 (10:25):
One counterpeigns at I could leave. That's all playing for
a while being never broke my heart? How do he?
Speaker 1 (10:34):
Yeha?
Speaker 3 (10:35):
That's American country music for you right Well here it
is here, Sorry indulging myself. Cameron Beagrie, independent economist. America
is very much at the forefront of our minds economically
in this country because one man on this planet is
dominating proceedings more than anyone else. Trump, Eh, what do
(10:57):
you reckon?
Speaker 6 (10:59):
Well, it's not just about Donald Trump. There's an awful
lot of political geo strategic tension here between our biggest
trading barner that's China and there are seventeen billion dollar
market in the United States is nine point five And
at the moment we've lived in this low volatility. We
called it the era of the Great Moderation over the
(11:20):
nineteen nineties, the sort of two thousands where the world
played reasonably nice. It feels like at the moment gef
political get strategic considerations at the forefront. The academics of
trade is a lot more about security of trade, security
and regard to food security and energy security and technological
advancement ie the Chips. And there's a bit of a
(11:43):
ding dong that's going on around the globe at the moment,
and New Zealand's trying to play a little in Switzerland
in the middle.
Speaker 3 (11:50):
Yeah, Well, we are going to be chatting to Stephan
Vogel shortly about this geopolitical tension between the US and China.
It's sort of the Cold War revers it, isn't it.
But let's just stick to the domestic front here at
this stage, because we're going to have a look at
the global outlook with him Cameron Vagrey. We've got an
official cash rate announcement, the final one for the year
(12:12):
next week. Everyone seems to be an agreement or are
they that we get another twenty five basis points and
that's our lot.
Speaker 6 (12:20):
Yeah, I think it's one and done. What we're now
starting to see is what the data is turned. So
it doesn't matter whether you look at ours worked, whether
you look at the export numbers. Building sense are still low,
but they're directly heading up off a low base track.
The sales are on the up, ther traffic volumes around
(12:42):
the country. We're getting a pretty consistent message at the moment.
The economy's not knocking the ball out of the park.
There's still pockets of weakness out there. The South Island's
better than the North Island, Auckland and Wellington sort of
at the back end of the pack in regard to
what's going on. But you know, you got an economy
that's turning the corner. Interest rates in regard to fixed
(13:05):
mortgage rates. People are still going to benefit from that
for another of twelve months. I don't think there's any
reason at the moment for the Reserve Bank to be
over the aggressive at this point because let's not forget Yeah, Jamie,
he'd gone inflation's got back up to three percent, and
the targets too.
Speaker 3 (13:20):
I don't want to steal Stephan Virgel's I want to
keep my powder dry for him. Should I say? I
don't want to steal his march on this one? But
in their report, they're talking about global GDP growth two
point nine percent this year, but it eases to two
points seven percent in twenty twenty six. That's probably in
contrast to what's going to happen to the New Zealand economy.
Speaker 6 (13:43):
Yeah, well, we got beaten up a lot more than
the global economy New Zealand's had. Yeah, GDP are capital,
which is population adjusted growth has fallen by five percent
in the past three years, which is already not in
the stuffing out of your economy and knocking the stuff
in at a living standards you. At the same time,
(14:05):
you've seen other economies around the globe. You're some of
the big players, you know, the United States has been
rocking and rolling for the past suit a couple of years.
Your march into their own tune. At the same time,
China has been going pretty well with There's debate here
over whether the data is right. You've got India that's
been marching along to a six seven percent growth numbers.
(14:26):
Your Europe has struggled as well. Australia has been down
on the dumps as well. So you've got a bit
of a two tiered economy. But if you I guess,
if you sit back to look at the bigger picture,
if I go back ten to fifteen years, your global
growth used to be up around three point five percent,
so number around two point nine two point seven that
(14:46):
face fed he still looks pretty good, but it's well
below the averages of what we've been used to the
International Monetary Fund's chief economists, you may use the phrase.
I think it was about six to twelve months ago
she talked about the settus like populations and one of
the things that's driving there is that as global growth
is less fast or a little bit slower, it's actually
(15:09):
driving a lot of fragmentation division to what's called the
political periphery around the globe. And when you got drive
into the political periphery the far left and the far right,
well WA's out.
Speaker 3 (15:19):
Hey really quickly to finish on and were you surprised
by that recent survey that came out I think earlier
this week that marked the government at three point nine
out of ten, but more importantly marked labor as being
the most capable of sorting out, for instance, cost of
living in the economy. That's the normal domain of the NATS.
Speaker 6 (15:40):
Yeah. Well, if I go back and have a look
at the twenty twenty three around September version of the
Epsossi's monitor, what we got from that in twenty and
twenty three was at the National Party was assessed I
think off the top of the head as best able
to handle eight of the top ten issues and fifteen
of the top twenty. If you look at the scoreboard
(16:01):
at the moment, the National Party of the top twenty
has got two hits, Ie, their assess has been able
to handle two issues out of the top twenty. It's
like a red Smalls board. And what we've got I'm
not at the moment. And what that's telling you, Jamie,
is that there is a right move to change across
this economy and your cost of living is just ruthless.
(16:24):
It is hurting families out there. You've got housing, you've
got healthcare, and the big flipper at the moment is
it the National Party is the top dog status in
regard to being assess has been best able to handle
the economy, and that I suspect will be have a
little bit of soul sut that's going on behind the
scenes in regard to what sort of message they is sending.
Speaker 3 (16:43):
Cameron Bagri there independent economists look forward to that OCR
announcement next week. Yep, one more to go and one
and we're done, said Cameron. Going to take a break.
On the other side of it, someone else is taking
a break from apparently a very windy hill in north Otaga,
was Jane Smith? Good as your mind. Jane Smith is
(17:10):
a north Otago farmer, regular hair on the country. You
never die wondering what she's thinking. What's she thinking today?
Because as we speak, Jane, you've taken a break from
your lunch break to chat to us. You're stuck behind
a rock or somewhere high on the hills on you
on your farm there, sheltering from a gale northwesterly. Are
you guys really starting to get quite dry in north Otago?
Speaker 7 (17:30):
Well, good afternoon, Jamie, Yeah, we certainly are. I mean
that there's been seven weeks of Norweister's We had a
bit of a reprieve last week from the Norwest, so
that was good for people that were tailing, et cetera.
And I guess the other concerning thing is if it's
if it's northwest to here it is, it'll be pouring
with rain on the west coast and those sort of
western parts of Central Target that have just had enough, Jamie,
(17:53):
and and in Southend as well. So it's a really
tricky not as dry as Hawk's Day and probably and
definitely as dry as North Canterbury, but we're certainly getting there, Jamie.
And it's just not the best working conditions working with
Blair anyway, live alone and an oyster.
Speaker 3 (18:07):
I'm on blairs side on this one. I think I
think he'd be the peacemaker in the relationship. I got
an email yesterday from a young Northland dairy farmer. I
hope he doesn't mind me reading this out. I've forwarded
it on to you. His name is Nathan Chestnut. He said,
I'm a young dairy farmer in Northland, still have about
forty or fifty years to go if the country plays
(18:28):
its cards right. So that's a good, ambitious and positive
approach to take to start with he's very really worried
because he says Norway has legislated a mandate that all
dairy cattle must be fed with a feed additive as
a part of its climate policy. Now farmers are reporting
health issues amongst their animals, i e. Abnormal behavior, refusal
(18:49):
of feed intake, and even death. Now you are, when
you're not farming with Blair, you are the poster girl
for the Methane Science Accord. This is what you guys
are banging on about.
Speaker 7 (19:00):
Yeah, well we've had a lot of concerns about this
for some time now, jamieen and it's interesting to see
this really highlighted and Denmark over the last few weeks.
And obviously, as some of your listeners will know, the
active ingredient is let me get this right, three nitro
oxy pro panel, which is THREEP. So it's essentially an
(19:22):
enzyme that's used by nathanolgenic microbes to that produce methane
to block the enzyme, so essentially works to alter the
micro bio and the stomach, which is particularly concerning given
all the knowledge we now have around the stomach by
health really being a key tenant and being healthy whether
you're a cow or a human and that is really concerning.
(19:45):
So and I guess what we've looked into is as
we know that the consumers generally do not want to
consume it, and you know, and their meat and their milk,
and why would you farmers don't want to use it
because of the because of the cost, and the no
rational rational reason why you'd have to use it. And
also you know, again ninety three percent of our two
(20:05):
thousand farmers in New Zealand that we've still had said
they will not use it. Now the Danish government had
mandated its uses, Nathan Rtney says, and their intense farmings
obviously quite too. You know, it's a feedlot system rather
than our our free range pastoral systems here. So they've
done that for a piece of climate change colt over there.
(20:26):
And last week both the government and the Danish Missionary
Association issue to press release allowing farmers to actually withdraw
from using it if they suspect health conditions and because
animal welfare has been compromised. And I now see that
the UK have also stopped the trials that they were
doing with it as well. So again really concerning that
we are currently putting tax payer money into essentially the
(20:49):
same the same type of feed aditives and vaccines, et
cetera that will be altering, you know, the natural ruminante processes.
Speaker 3 (20:57):
Jamie, Jane, come on, let's be honest here. This is
you just shoving a bowl that's right up the backside
of agri zero n Z.
Speaker 6 (21:04):
Yeah.
Speaker 7 (21:04):
Well again, Jamie, You know that the big concerns here
are you know, animal health concerns. We don't know the
long term impact. But also the biggest one is actually
they're not needed at all. All of these tools will
make about as much difference to global temperatures as painting
every fence post in the country would, So that would
be extensive. It would sound good, it would look nice,
but it means it's totally meaningless to global temperatures. And
(21:28):
you know, it's really interesting any time you ask a
politician or an overpaid bureaucrat or a well funded scientist
that's doing methane mitigation science what difference any of this
will make to global temperatures, and they cannot answer it,
and instead, of course they roll out that line about
our global customer. This is what they want. So, you know,
junk food companies NISLA McDonald's this is what they want.
(21:49):
And the really sad thing is it was now in
a country that's paying what is it too million dollars
an hour of just Cinder's interest off an hour, We've
now copped up nearly a billion dollars on chasing me rainbows, Jamien.
Imagine if that same money had been spent on enhance them,
bio diversity, by security, water quality, water storage, pest control.
(22:11):
And it really concerns me that we're hearing Christopher climate
change lots and still rolling out that line. We must
meet our climate, our carbon zero by twenty fifty and
it's an irrational response, a response to it, Jamie. And
three hundred billion dollars could be clocked up by then,
and that's what's at one hundred hospitals and ten years
(22:31):
of the health budget, Jamie. So I will not you know,
I will not back down fighting on this, Jamie, because
again it's not whether or not climate change it is
or isn't happening, it's how we respond to it, Jamie.
And this is absolutely irrational. And again if you look
at photosynthesis and I've just written a article from the
New Zealand Herald on this, it's a closed loop ruminant
(22:52):
animals simply a one cog in the wheel. So we actually,
you know, on a molecule for modicle basis, only three
percent to the cotos all by grass ends up being
returned as methane. And it's a very simple back of
the envelope stuff. In fact, I explained this to a
bous year high school air class last week and they said, yeah,
we know that. They know that, so it's very strange
(23:15):
to their egg sector leaders. Our research scientists continue to
waste money in this area, and I actually I want
to apologize to the textpayer because we are literally wasting
money that could be going into some real r and
d Jamie.
Speaker 3 (23:26):
Okay, look on the bright side, Jane, at least with
Chippy's capital gains tax, you're going to get three free
visits to the doctor each year. Hope you get some
rain in North Otago.
Speaker 7 (23:35):
Thanks Sammy.
Speaker 3 (23:36):
Twenty five away from one. Yeah, we're going to take
a break on the other side of it, Rural News
with Michelle. Apparently we won the Fossil Award at COP
thirty in Brazil. What a waste of time that is.
And we'll have a sports news for you before the
end of the hour. Stephan Vogel and Joe Luxtone.
Speaker 5 (23:52):
Yeah, in mac and be.
Speaker 3 (23:57):
Coldburn twenty two away from one. You're with the country right.
We're going to South Otago, the home patch of Michelle Watt,
Farming show producer, next Thursday for the Farmer's Shout. We've
got the cold beer from Emerson's and Spates. We can
do the country newsic. I could bring my boombox along.
Speaker 8 (24:20):
You could bring your boombox.
Speaker 3 (24:22):
What are we going to do about the hot women?
Are you going to do something? Round up some of
your old mates from South Otago or are there plenty
of them?
Speaker 2 (24:28):
Oh?
Speaker 3 (24:28):
You're going. Jane will probably turn up, will she? I
think everyone here wants to go down.
Speaker 8 (24:34):
I think so. I'm as friendship of South Tago show
from two thousand and three will be there.
Speaker 3 (24:38):
Who's that you? It was me. I didn't realize that
she's I'm working with a beauty queen. Here we go.
We'll see what she's got for rural news to.
Speaker 1 (24:47):
The country's world news with cod Cadets, New Zealand's leading
right on lawn Bower brand is a steel for dot
co dot Nz for your local stockers.
Speaker 3 (24:56):
My older sister Jeanie was Miss Centennial Riversdal in nineteen
seventy two or three. She still you, Sash, Yeah, I
think she does, but she doesn't listen to this show
because she's a bit of a greenie, doesn't like a
younger brother's political views. But I try and be as
neutral as I can. Did we get a fossil award?
We did?
Speaker 8 (25:15):
This is the fourth time New Zealand has actually been
an award of this at COP thirty which is being held
in Brazil just about a week ago or so. So
we won it this year because of the fact that
we weakened the messane emissions policies. So it's a bit
of a dud award. It's kind of like those dud
movie awards that they give out and they're trying to
make that work for the COP.
Speaker 3 (25:35):
But it's about fifty or sixty thousand people are turning
up to this ridiculous How do they get there? Yes, exactly.
Greta would try and go on a boat. Everyone else
flies there.
Speaker 8 (25:46):
Think of the carbon footprint and New Zealand forestry and
the wood processing sector has taken center stage. During a
highly successful trade mission to India, Minister Tom McKay joined
a delegation of thirteen New Zealand companies to India this
week to pursue some new gross opportunities and fun fact, Jamie,
I didn't know this. Wood and wood Products are already
(26:07):
New Zealand's largest goods expert to India, worth one hundred
and thirty four million dollars in the year to June
twenty twenty five, and it's growing.
Speaker 3 (26:14):
Well, there you go, the wonderful trivia fact of the
day from Miss Friendship at the South Otago showIn when.
Speaker 8 (26:21):
Two thousand and three.
Speaker 3 (26:22):
I think, right, I'll go and figure out in the
ad break how old you were.
Speaker 1 (26:26):
Spores on the country with a fco business.
Speaker 4 (26:29):
Well done.
Speaker 3 (26:30):
I got to hurry up because I'm running behind time.
I've got to go to Stephan Vogels, So I've got
time for one story. New Zealand Rugby are pushing and
every game counts mindset to showcase the benefits of the
New Nations Championship format. The biennial event starts next year
with the All Blacks hosting France, Italy and Ireland at
home in July, before visiting Scotland, Wales and England in November.
(26:52):
Interesting format. Up next, we head to Sydney on the country.
Speaker 1 (26:57):
None of that took our Saturday.
Speaker 3 (27:00):
The Rubber Bank has just come out with its agri
Commodity outlook for twenty twenty six has shot fired and anger.
As we look towards a new year. Let's head to
Sydney the Sydney Office to catch up with GM for
RABO Research for Australia in New Zealand steff and Vogel
and Steffan. The headline on this report is more than
(27:21):
just supply and demand factors shape and global agriculture in
twenty twenty six, with geopolitics set to play a crucial role. Surprise, surprise,
good afternoon would have.
Speaker 4 (27:32):
Thought that, Uh yeah, now, Jamie, look, we all know
how much the export destinations and export markets of the
world are impacted by the political positions. But maybe very briefly,
this is a global report and he was released last
week and we've already seen that mister Trump has changed
(27:52):
his mind on beef tariffs. So with that there rare
the changes than the one thing we mentioned is what
is certain is basically the uncertainty remains. We've seen that
one coming in I think for New Zealand. The changes
here in the in the tariffs are actually nothing bad.
It will go back for the beef in quota trade
from the fifteen percent where we've faced now to slightly
(28:13):
under one percent. So that's a good kind of level
playing field now with the ones including US here in Australia.
Speaker 3 (28:20):
I'm sorry, do you think this could be the beginning
of the end for Trump's tariffs?
Speaker 4 (28:26):
Look, I think that the message we've already conveayed for many,
many months is that the threat of a tariff is
more powerful to the president's Trump in the negotiations than
the actual tariff. So whenever the consumer hurts, and with that,
especially on the meat and food prices here, the consumer
in the US is hurting, He's making changes. I don't
(28:47):
think it will be the end of tariffs, but it
might be the end of tariffs or the more exceptions
to come for some of the food products that really
matter to the masses you mentioned.
Speaker 3 (28:58):
Jo. Politics, here's a question for you, and now, are
we now moving into like a Cold war regime China
versus the US, as opposed to Russia versus the US
in the sixties.
Speaker 4 (29:12):
Well, we've already had that thesis for many years out
there that the sides are or the front are shaping
more into a Cold war area. However, if you look
with the Royals most recent treat deal, things even between
the US and China have calmed a little bit down,
but honestly they're only kicking the can one year down
the road. So with that, the good news out of
(29:35):
the deal between China and the US is basically we
will not see the por terriffs implemented, which could have
really changed the way that the freight market is reacting.
We get some more certainty that some soybeans out of
North America move into that Chinese market. But overall for
US in New Zealand and Australia, I think the grain
market takes it, and that's for your feeding costs probably important.
(29:58):
Takes it in a way that there are anti sobeians
in the world market and China will anyway get it
from where wherever they can get it. So with that,
right now they're buying in the US it makes sense
it's cheap. They will move in a few months back
over to South America because that's where the volumes will
come with a new harvest in let's say February March onward.
So with that, China does what makes sense for China.
(30:20):
The US wants to do what makes sense for the US,
but the confronting two sites are not easy to overlap.
So with that, I think there's a bit of window
dressing in those trade deals.
Speaker 3 (30:31):
Stephan, sorry to come over the top of you here,
but I am limited on time. I want to quickly
have a look at some of these individual commodities. Dairy,
we have a global dairy trade auction tonight, futures market
is pointing to perhaps another two percent fall and whole
milk powder. I see the futures market for New Zealand,
and I appreciate that yours is a global report for
(30:52):
the twenty sixth season. Was it nine dollars seventy three
last time I locked?
Speaker 5 (30:56):
So?
Speaker 3 (30:56):
Is that ten dollars? Milk price here in New Zealand
under severe threat?
Speaker 4 (31:01):
We fear there's a bit of pressure still coming from
the world market, because if we're looking into twenty six
there is continued growth in production in the big export
markets from the US but also from South America coming
into the market. So the forward curve is pointing a
little bit to the upside, but overall we see that
market pretty much going sideways to put in the US
(31:24):
at least the futures market sideways to maybe slightly higher,
but the volumes that are coming in the world market
will give us here in New Zealand probably a bit
of a hard time because we need to get our
volumes into that Asian market.
Speaker 3 (31:35):
That seems that there's nothing but good news for.
Speaker 4 (31:37):
Base well for beef, yes, definitely well and mister Trump's
changes in mind came quicker than we could even write
the report. So I think for New Zealand the good
news is basically we're moving from a fifteen percent terriff
back to in quota tariffs of less than one percent.
That brings us more or less at a level playing
field with Australia, which moves from ten percent to enough.
(32:01):
We still have Mexico not being able to move into
that US market because of a disease, and if you
look at others, the Brazilians, that's the big question mark
right now what happens. Remember they got an extra forty
percent tariff on top of the reciprocal tariffs, and the
market for now still expect that that forty percent tariff
will remain in place for a while longer. So overall,
(32:22):
the issue we're seeing there for the Brazilians is that
they may have a bit of a tougher time to
get in the US market, which is good news for US.
Speaker 3 (32:28):
And I want to quote one of your final numbers,
GDP growth forecast for this year at two point nine.
Interestingly for twenty twenty six at two point seven. So
the world economy is still in a sticky place. Hey,
Stefan Vogel out of Rabobanks Sydney office. Really appreciate your
time on the country.
Speaker 4 (32:45):
Thanks having me all of that.
Speaker 3 (32:48):
Thank you, Stefan. Joe Luxton wraps the country up next
Labour's egg spokesperson. I wonder if she's got any policy
for me. Joe Luxton is Labour's agriculture spokesperson. But Joe Luxton,
(33:08):
could you be the next Minister of Agriculture. I'm starting
to get worried.
Speaker 2 (33:13):
Oh why would that? We were you? Jamie?
Speaker 3 (33:15):
Well, let me think, Let me count the ways the
Greens to party MARII the end of farming as we
know it?
Speaker 2 (33:24):
Oh, look that simple Mollock's Jamie, and you know it.
You know it. Under the last Labor government. That wasn't
the end of farming, was it?
Speaker 6 (33:31):
Well?
Speaker 3 (33:31):
You tried your very best with he Walker Echinoa.
Speaker 2 (33:36):
Look, it's a different different labor party, different caucus now,
and we focused on on labor. And if you if
people out there want change, if they're concerned about the
Greens and they're consumed about Tarton and vote for labor
is what I say.
Speaker 3 (33:48):
Let's be honest. Farmers aren't your constituency. Farmers won't get
you the Treasury benches. They're probably going to be a
nuisance in some ways because you never wouldn't. Whatever you do,
you're not going to win them over. So you know
you're constitution tuancy is urban New Zealand. That's how you'll
win the election.
Speaker 2 (34:04):
Look, Labor governs for everybody, Jamie, not just one particular
group or the other. I mean you could flip that
on its side and say that, well, okay, then National
must be the only only part of it looks after
farmers and not others. So I just don't believe that
for a second, Jamie.
Speaker 3 (34:21):
Well Instant tells me, and David Seymour tell me they
look after farmers as well. I'd pick on you a wee,
but Joe, and you're such a nice person. I don't
like doing this, but when are you going to have
some egg policy for me? For instance, what is Labor's
emissions policy. We know that under the current government, eggs
not on the ets. There's no pricing of emissions. That
won't happen under a Labor led government.
Speaker 2 (34:45):
I'm not going to tell you what our climate change
or emissions reductions policies will be. Gibra Russell as our
climate spokesperson. She's currently away at the moment. In what
we do know is obviously the government has currently reduced
its missions the methane targets, and we have asked to
see the information and the science and the advice they
(35:06):
received as to how they came to that position, and
we're still waiting on that as well. So I don't
have anything further to say on our moving emissions reductions
or climate policy.
Speaker 3 (35:18):
Well, I'll wait with baited breath for some policy. Look
as net zero by twenty to fifty now a lost cause.
I see some governments around the world are dumping it.
The Australian opposition is dumping it.
Speaker 2 (35:33):
I don't think that we should give up, but it
is concerning to see the things that this government is
doing that that seems to be moving away from that,
with the different policies initiatives that they are getting rid
of and scraping or reducing.
Speaker 3 (35:47):
Just quickly to finish on Chippy's capital gains tax. Has
he dodged a bit of a political bullet here because
it seems to have been at least met with a
fifty to fifty reception, maybe even better depending on which
you look at, because in the past it's always been
thought of as a poison chalice. But the reception and labor,
(36:07):
you must be reasonably pleased that you've been able to
fly this kite and it hasn't met with widespread anger.
Speaker 2 (36:15):
No, I think it's I think it's a really great,
great policy. And often when you introduce taxes or other things,
people sort of they get it up in arms about it,
don't they. But when people can actually see and understand
what that money that is raised from that will be
spent for, specifically on those three doctors visits, free doctors
visits per Anna, then people can then people feel a
(36:36):
lot better about those things. And we've kept it super simple,
so it's only on profit on commercial or residential properties,
excluding the film come and excluding farms.
Speaker 3 (36:46):
Yeah, yeah, okay, that's good. Why didn't you make the
spend more targeted. I mean, giving everybody, including you and me,
a free doctor's visit. It's a complete waste of time
and it's human nature. You get to December and November
this time of the year and you go, oh, I
haven't had my third free doctor's visit. I might go
and get a full check up, a warrant of fitness
from my doctor. You're just going to clog the health system.
(37:07):
Why not put all that money that you'll get eventually
from a capital gains tax just straight into the health
budget and let them decide where to spend it best.
Speaker 2 (37:17):
I completely disagree with you, Jamie. So are you saying
that you and I if we get free doctor's visit
that then maybe we should look to be paying when
we arrive at the emergency department too. It just doesn't
work that way, Jamie. You know you cannot start.
Speaker 3 (37:29):
Ay emergency department's Joe are for emergencies. If we're going
along to our GP, people like you and I should
be paying. The health system's got enough challenges without us
bludging on it.
Speaker 2 (37:41):
And we have other policies coming out that will help
to tackle that as well that you'll be pleased to
hear when they come out, you know, and one of those.
You know, the more the sooner that people get to
your doctor, the better, because it ends up costing us
left at the other end, and if they do show
up in the ED department. And the other thing that
we announced recently, and I'm not sure if we have two,
is the free civical screening for everyone as well, which
(38:01):
is a fantastic policy.
Speaker 3 (38:02):
Well, I hope it's only for the women, not everyone,
but anyhow, Joe Luxton, I'm going to await this policy eagerly,
along with your egg policy. Always good to chat and debate,
you too, Jamie, Yeah, thank you, Joe.
Speaker 6 (38:15):
Hmm.
Speaker 3 (38:16):
I wonder when we do get that labor agg policy.
Never mind, thanks for coming on the show, Joe. That's
us done and dusted. Catch it tomorrow, bluck.
Speaker 1 (38:26):
Catch all the latest from the land. It's the Country
Podcast with Jamie McGue. Thanks to Brent, You're specialist in
John Deere machinery.
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