CSB - Stu Davison - GDT results

 SENIOR MANAGER, GLOBAL MARKET INSIGHTS - out of HighGround Dairy talking the latest GDT results. 

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
The Country Sport Breakfast.

Speaker 2 (00:01):
Has you covered on Gold Sport your home of live commentary.

Speaker 1 (00:05):
All right, Time to talk dairy now Global Dairy Trade
Auction from overnight, joining US stud Davidson, seenior Manager, Global
Market Insights out of High Grand Dairy Morning.

Speaker 2 (00:13):
Stew, Good morning, how are getting on?

Speaker 1 (00:16):
Yeah? Very well? Thank you? Well. I guess after a
fortnight ago when we had what was it a five
percent not a real surprise with a slight drop.

Speaker 2 (00:25):
Yeah, exactly right. I mean the slight drops mostly derived
from that homicpowder slide, so that's the sort of key
one there. But there were some good facts in there
as well, so you know, some pretty positive results with
skim cheddar and the milk fat complex wasn't all that
bad either, so it was down overall but not terrible.

Speaker 1 (00:41):
Were you expecting sort of a result like.

Speaker 2 (00:43):
This, to be bluntly on us? I was actually expecting
this exact result, which was pretty exciting. We saw a
bit of resistance coming for homicpowder, like you said, made
that big move last time out. We didn't think it
could repeat that. That three five hundred mark was a
bit of a resistance point we saw and had delive
that again that doesn't mean it can't go through that
point further in the season, but right now it just

(01:04):
looks a little bit tough. But the bit we probably
got a little bit wrong was just the inverse of
the milk fats. But again, but namef price has just
set record prices, so it can't really complain on that front.

Speaker 1 (01:15):
Yeah, so it wasn't all negative, was it. I mean,
I'm looking at the numbers now and there are quite
a few pluses.

Speaker 2 (01:21):
Yeah, exactly right. Yea, there's quite a few pluses in
there when you run it through the spot milk price
cacleat for New Zealand, that decline in homework powder is
somewhat offset by the game and skim and AMF, so
it's not all bad. And then obviously a bit of
you know, foreign exchange movement in the last two weeks
as well as helped things in terms of that milk
fat milk price value. But yeah, there's a lot to

(01:42):
be taken away from it. It probably takes a little
bit of the momentum out of the market, which is
the concern, but again it's not as bad as it
could be.

Speaker 1 (01:50):
Who were the bidders who was bidding mainly?

Speaker 2 (01:52):
Yeah, well, this is the big surprise. So it was
China returning again, so three auctions in a row with
US being the most dominant buyer. So that's encouraging and
something we're looking into it further as we go through
the next two weeks before the next auction. But I'm
really promising to see them back again. And they were
there for home powders and that butter auction as well,
so pretty impressive. And Southeast Asian buyers are in second place.

(02:12):
The big unknown here or the big surprise was Middle
Eastern buyers stepped away quite dramatically, so that's unusual and
sort of just talk to that price. You know, the
demand burn we get when we get to these higher prices,
so price sensitive buyers price goes up, they start stepping
away and understandably produces a bit of the pressure or
momentum in the market.

Speaker 1 (02:31):
So it'll probably mean that in a fortnight for now,
the next one that comes along will be a really
interesting one.

Speaker 2 (02:37):
Oh yeah, we're getting excited this time of the air.
We're heading right towards peak milk and New Zealand. The
market is squarely looking at what New Zealand milk production
is doing, especially considering the tight milk production in Europe
and US at the moment, so it's all getting excited
in the tail end of the year.

Speaker 1 (02:51):
Fantastic Stu Hey, thanks for joining us, mate, and we'll
do it again in a fortnite ah.

Speaker 2 (02:55):
Thanks mate, Love to chat Chez