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June 29, 2025 • 13 mins

Your chance of winning Powerball is 1 in 38 million – and it could be about to get a lot harder.

The Herald has revealed Lotto NZ bosses are keen to increase the number of balls in the Powerball draw - and are already seeking permission from the Government for what has been described as a “matrix” change for the game.

But, how will this affect your odds? And, why do they want to change the game anyway?

Today on The Front Page, NZ Herald senior reporter Neil Reid is here to crunch the numbers and tell us more about these potential changes on the way.

Follow The Front Page on iHeartRadio, Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

You can read more about this and other stories in the New Zealand Herald, online at nzherald.co.nz, or tune in to news bulletins across the NZME network.

Host: Chelsea Daniels
Sound Engineer/Producer: Richard Martin
Producer: Ethan Sills

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Episode Transcript

Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:05):
Hilda.

Speaker 2 (00:05):
I'm Chelsea Daniels and this is the Front Page, a
daily podcast presented by the New Zealand Herald. Your chance
of winning powerball is one in thirty eight million.

Speaker 1 (00:21):
And it could be about to get a lot harder.

Speaker 2 (00:25):
The Herald has revealed Lotto and z bosses are keen
to increase the number of balls in the powerball draw
and are already seeking permission from the government for what
has been described as a matrix change for the game.
But how will this affect your odds and why do
they want to change the game anyway? Today on the
front Page ends at Herald's senior reporter, Neil Readers here

(00:47):
to crunch the numbers and tell us more about these
potential changes on the way. So, Neil, how does the
Lotto matrix currently work?

Speaker 3 (01:01):
At the moment?

Speaker 4 (01:02):
To win Powerball, you've got to have six first division
numbers and then get the powerball. And at the moment
there's ten balls and powerball number one through ten, and
the odds of winning Lotto Powerball currently are one and
thirty eight million, But potentially by twenty twenty nine that
could be quite harder.

Speaker 2 (01:21):
So that old adage of you're more likely to die
in a plane crash than win lotto.

Speaker 1 (01:27):
Is that still the deal?

Speaker 3 (01:29):
I think definitely.

Speaker 4 (01:30):
Our numbers guru Chris Knox ran some potential Lotto powerball
changes through his matrix machine. Last time there was a
powerball change was in two thousand and seven, so I
went to ten balls. So currently it's one in thirty
eight million with six first division numbers in the power ball.
Shouldlow added an additional powerball number, the odds would decrease

(01:52):
to one and forty two point two million on previous
track records, where the previously other two numbers. If they
added twelve numbers to the powerball, kissy, your odds would
it would decrease even further to one and forty six million.
And if the Loto en Ze bosses went all the
way out and added five extra numbers to the powerball, kidd,

(02:14):
you'll be looking at one in fifty seven point five million.

Speaker 3 (02:17):
So yeah, way more likely to die on a plane
creation than win lotto.

Speaker 1 (02:21):
Yeah, So tell me about these proposed changes. What's the
thinking behind it?

Speaker 4 (02:25):
Around the world, it's no sort of shortage of changes
to different lotto games or powerball games. In particular, Australia
changed their Powerball matrix in twenty eighteen in America's Mega Millions,
which has got a record payout of two point five billion,
which is a bit bigger than our Lotto Powerball's fifty
million record. They changed their matrix simply waiting a price

(02:48):
change earlier this year to make the tickets more expensive.
Games are always looking to evolve. I think in New
Zealand there's obviously added competition of sports betting now more
horse betting options. Lotto end zet are very keen to
make sure that they don't reduce the financial returns to
the community, but via the Lotteries Trust at the moment,

(03:09):
that's four hundred and thirty four million that they pump
back into the community. So they're trying to safeguard well,
they're trying to say, they're trying to safeguard both the
game's financial future and also the returns to the community
by making Blotto Powerball even more attractive.

Speaker 3 (03:24):
For the future.

Speaker 2 (03:24):
What are the risks here with changing it? I mean,
problem gambling is a bit of an issue at the moment.
It always has been. Could this be a problem?

Speaker 4 (03:32):
Problem gaming foundation they do, I mean, they've made no
secret in the past about people being hopped on lotto.
Their research, The Problem Gambling Foundation's research shows about twelve
percent of their client owl who have received gambling harm
treatment services, lotto was their primary mode of gambling. Just

(03:53):
for context that that compares with fifty percent of listed
playing the pokeys in nine percent said they're impacted by
gambling on sports or horse racing with the TB. But
I mean, definitely if these changes do have been which
will mean more bigger jackpots such as the fifty million
must be one, I mean, I think the Problem Gaming
Foundation will be quite concerned about that. You know, a

(04:15):
lot of people will be keen to buy tickets for
the big draws.

Speaker 5 (04:21):
In terms of those that play all the time, there's
what we call a near miss phenomenon, which is maybe
I got three numbers last week or four the week before,
and therefore, in my brain, I think that increases my
odds of winning the big time, which we all know
every time you play you back at square one.

Speaker 4 (04:38):
It seems while we're playing lotto, our brain's playing games
with us.

Speaker 5 (04:43):
If I can remember other people winning the lotto, which
we see all over the news, actually makes my brain
I think that I've got higher chance or higher of.

Speaker 2 (04:55):
So there are already some rules around how the game
is played. Hey at the like how much the jackpot
can actually get up to? How much does it cap
off at now? And if they were to add more numbers, say,
have they talked about how much we could possibly win?

Speaker 3 (05:12):
Yeah?

Speaker 4 (05:13):
At present, the maximum that loto can get to before
it has to be struck as fifty million, so sort
of jackpots every week that it's not drawn, And the
mount that a jackpots kind of depends on how many
tickets they sell for the previous draw. So last week
you obviously rows to thirty million dollars that was split
by between two lucky winners. I think that week lotoside

(05:34):
about one point five million tickets, which is quite a
big upturn on what they'd sell for say a four
or a ten million dollar draw. For the figure to
be the maximum payout limit to lift that would take
approvabley internal affairs in the government.

Speaker 3 (05:48):
A lot of New Zealand aren't trying to seek that
at the moment.

Speaker 4 (05:51):
What they are trying to work through is if they
can increase the numbers and the power ball to change
the matrix. But I mean, I think if you look
at our powerball lot, it's fifty million. In America, you
can win billions and their powerball. Australia's got a record
powerball payout of one hundred and sixty two million, so
we're still still kind of small frin terms of payouts.

Speaker 1 (06:11):
Really, what's the most someone's won in New Zealand?

Speaker 4 (06:15):
The record PAOUD is just over forty four million, which
is pretty mouth watering and could change your life in
so many ways. There have been two previous fifty million
dollar jaws which have been shared by multiple winners. Twenty
twenty four there were seven players that shared that fifty
million prize for when they got just over seven million

(06:36):
dollars each, which I wouldn't.

Speaker 3 (06:37):
Say no to seven million. I don't know if you
would either. Chelsea.

Speaker 2 (06:48):
Well, you've spoken about some of the global lotto trends
and how they compare to New Zealand. Is there any
reason why, say, America goes into the billions, Australia goes
over one hundred million, and why do we cap it?

Speaker 3 (07:02):
The big reason is population.

Speaker 4 (07:04):
We've got sort of a fifth of quarter of the
population of Australia, so when you sort of maybe leverage
it out that way, our payments. Probably maximum payment proportionally
is fairly even with Australia.

Speaker 3 (07:17):
America or America is a whole different beast all together.

Speaker 4 (07:19):
Obviously a huge country which has got multiple gambling options.
Probably that American dream that everyone wants to get rich there.
The A Lotto games are huge over the air, and
it's not just the mega millions. For New Zealand, the
fifteen million limit. Part of that is to do with
problem gambling. I think if it would be pretty hard argument,
I think for a lot of New Zealand to put

(07:41):
forward and I don't know even if they want to
put it forward to increase that level. I think if
they did, they're probably be quite a bit of blowback
from Problem Gambling Foundation and other community organizations about the
potential risks that could could pose with gambling traits.

Speaker 2 (07:57):
Yeah, that makes sense because I saw that the forty
four million dollar one that was in twenty sixteen in
November that was actually the greatest number of tickets sold
for a draw was that draw. And I suppose as
soon as it gets up to fifty everyone, even even
people who don't usually buy a Lotto tickets want to
get involved.

Speaker 4 (08:16):
Hey, absolutely, family's going away on holidays, always want to
buy a ticket for those big draws when they're in
a different place.

Speaker 3 (08:22):
For luck.

Speaker 4 (08:23):
Last weekend when Lotto had thirty million, it's the first
time for a while that has actually been sort of
if you drive past lot of outlets, and I did,
there were lines and queues outside some of the lotto
sellers at supermarkets and different places around town.

Speaker 3 (08:39):
When it really does drive a bus.

Speaker 4 (08:41):
I remember sort of the other those two weekends when
there were fifty million dollar draws.

Speaker 3 (08:45):
It was massive.

Speaker 4 (08:46):
You know, they'd be driving past a stationary store or
bookshop or a supermarket and gave sort of lines of
ten twenty people longer waiting to get a ticket to
potentially change their life.

Speaker 6 (08:58):
Wouldn't I have got the money I put all the
tune deposits, which was suggested by the Lotto commission. Then
I started getting all these friends coming in and people
and people are asking me, and these new people I
didn't even know, and hey, can I have, can I have?

Speaker 1 (09:16):
Can I borrow?

Speaker 6 (09:17):
Can I learn? And I was doing I was giving them,
I was answering them, and all of a sudden, have
got too much. I'm not seeing the results of what
they wanted the money for and things like that. So
that sort of turned me upside down of it. I
sort of had to stop doing that, and I felt
quite distinct stopping that.

Speaker 2 (09:41):
And of course we've heard some horror stories, but also
some real success stories from winners.

Speaker 1 (09:46):
It really depends what kind of road you go down.

Speaker 2 (09:49):
Hey, I mean, you hear stories and I'm thinking of
one in the UK, I think where somebody won lotto
and just completely wasted all their money. I mean it's heartbreaking.
And you see those kinds of things in the news A.

Speaker 3 (10:02):
Absolutely, I think the things you imagine.

Speaker 4 (10:04):
I mean, if I won touch Wood forty million dollars,
it would change my life. And most people just aren't
prepared for that overnight sensation of, you know, never having
to work again. Really, you know, some people there's been
winners in New Zealand that have taught previously confidentially about
it that people came out of the woodwork that you
didn't really know before. They want money, you're not used

(10:24):
to budgeting for what to do with it. I think
a lot of news doing a lot more proactive now
than maybe what they were earlier on. I know it's
the big winners they're given opportunities for counseling, for financial literacy,
the Office of Financial Coaching. You know what potentially what
to do with their money in terms of what your

(10:46):
ISSUA could invest in. But you think, sort of if
your bank account went from Jesus one hundred and fifty
bucks in your bank account on a Saturday morning to
potentially thirty million dollars when your bank your winning ticket
and it's it's a hell of a life style change.
It'd be pretty hard not to go on a bit
of a slurge. I know, I'd probably buy a couple
of nice cars and go on holiday and waste the rest.

Speaker 1 (11:07):
Of it and give me a couple of meal, wouldn't you?

Speaker 3 (11:09):
Absolutely? Chelsea?

Speaker 2 (11:11):
How do you think that these changes might go down
with the general public? Noil, I think we all know
that people are obsessed with lotto at the moment. Do
you think a bigger jackpop could outweigh a harder chance
of winning.

Speaker 3 (11:24):
Yeah, there's a.

Speaker 4 (11:24):
Real cruck sort of if these number change the matrix
change goes ahead, Loto were very happen with me when
I talk to them that a matrix change of me
at a be tougher to win lotto when it's like
a four million dollar draw, six million dollar draw, et cetera,
et cetera.

Speaker 3 (11:41):
But the flip side is that there are going to
be bigger, more regular, bigger jackpots.

Speaker 4 (11:45):
So and the last almost decad there's only been two
fifty million dollar draws. You could have a fifty million
dollar drawer every year, potentially every couple of years, which
is what Lotto would love to have. I think that
the punters would definitely like it. I think the dream
of getting rich from Lotto. People probably stick with Lotto
if they think that he you know, is a chance
we could win, they get even though it's probably least

(12:06):
likely we're going to win the big prize every week
or for for six million dollars every weekend of course
is that they're going to change Powerball, so things with
like fierce Division or strike for those other options won't
be changing.

Speaker 1 (12:19):
Thanks for joining us, Neil.

Speaker 2 (12:23):
Lotto and Z's chief innovation and product Officer Ben Coney
said the ideas about evolving the game so that it
can remain compelling to players. The prize value is not
eroded through inflation, and the odds of winning move in
line with population growth.

Speaker 1 (12:40):
He said, Our enduring interest is.

Speaker 2 (12:42):
In having a powerball game that is appealing to our customers,
generates consistent profit for distribution to the community, and allows
for responsible growth over time. The details of exactly what
they'll change and what it would mean for customers is
still to be confirmed, as they are subject to regulatory

(13:03):
consultation and ministerial approval. That's it for this episode of
The Front Page. You can read more about today's stories
and extensive news coverage at enzedherld dot co dot nz.
The Front Page is produced by Ethan Sills and Richard Martin,

(13:23):
who is also our sound engineer.

Speaker 1 (13:26):
I'm Chelsea Daniels.

Speaker 2 (13:28):
Subscribe to The Front Page on iHeartRadio or wherever you
get your podcasts, and tune in tomorrow for another look
behind the headlines.
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