Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:06):
Kiota.
Speaker 2 (00:07):
I'm Chelsea Daniels and this is the Front Page, a
daily podcast presented by the New Zealand Herald.
Speaker 1 (00:16):
Warnings of a city killer.
Speaker 2 (00:18):
Asteroid hirshling towards Earth have been filling our news feeds
over the last month. The space rock, dubbed twenty twenty
four yr four had a three point one percent chance
of hitting Earth in the year twenty thirty two. That
made it one of the riskiest asteroids ever according to NASA,
but they've since lowered their assessment again to zero point
(00:42):
to eight percent. That hasn't stopped news of this asteroid
sparking a social media and news obsession.
Speaker 1 (00:50):
Just the latest thing for people.
Speaker 2 (00:51):
To worry about in amongst wars, a bad economy and
political uncertainty. So why are we so obsessed with doom
scrull and is fixating on potential disasters bad for our health?
Later we'll discuss that side of things with doctor Lisa Harrison,
a lecturer in digital communications at Flinders University. But first
(01:15):
on the Front Page, to put all your minds at ease,
we're speaking to Joshua Alraki from Stardom. So, Joshua, what
can you tell us about the twenty twenty four yr
four and its discovery.
Speaker 3 (01:29):
Yeah, so this is a pretty it's a decently small
asteroid in terms of asteroids. It was discovered late last
year and we think it's about fifty to one hundred
meters wide, so it's pretty small in terms of asteroids.
But we've found that from kind of the first observations
that there is a very slim chance that it could
potentially impact Earth in twenty thirty two, but we don't
(01:51):
quite know you and it's still very very small chance.
Speaker 2 (01:53):
So on a scale from say the asteroid that killed
the dinosaurs to a loose pebble heading you win screen,
what would be the effects of an asteroid this size
hitting Earth?
Speaker 3 (02:05):
Yeah, I mean I will stress first off that this
asteroid is not an extinction level event. It is very small.
You know, for example, the one that wiped out the
dinosaurs was about ten kilometers across, so this is, you know,
fifty tow one hundred meters, which is really really small
in comparison. But in saying that, you know, these, that
is big enough that it would cause damage if it
were to impact their populated area, the air burst potentially
(02:29):
if it exploded within the atmosphere could be quite catastrophic.
We often rate these things on a kind of a
nibertary scale we call the Terno scale in terms of
asteroid impacts, with zero being no impact, in ten being catastrophic,
and astronomers have put this at a three, so it's
still quite low down on the list. You've also got
to remember that, you know, as to where it falls
on the Earth. I mean, most of the Earth is
(02:50):
covered in oceans. That would basically kind of be the
best case scenario if it did land over the oceans.
A majority of our land mass, it's source so pretty unpopulated,
so it's still a very slim chance that it would cause,
you know, catastrophic damage to a city.
Speaker 2 (03:03):
Right, So how is that likelihood of hitting Earth actually calculated?
Speaker 3 (03:07):
It's basically from the orbital parameters. So when we discover
this asteroid, we basically just track the part that it
was taking around the Sun. But the problem with that
is when we found it, the asteroid is actually moving
away from the Earth, so we're only going to get
a couple of months to observe it. So we're going
to start to use some of our space telescopes, but
we won't really get a lot of information until it
comes closer to Earth, and that's actually in a few years,
(03:28):
in twenty twenty eight, and that's when we're going to
get much more information as to its path and its size,
and if it is having a high chance of hitting Earth,
as to where it's going to fall on the Earth.
Speaker 2 (03:38):
So when we kind of look at these percentages and
you mentioned that scale of one to ten, we're out
of three at the moment, at what point did we
actually start getting worried.
Speaker 3 (03:47):
Yeah, I mean it's astronomers have been saying, you know,
it's definitely something to be aware of, but it's definitely
not a point of concern at this point. We just
don't have enough information to make those decisions just yet.
But you know, saying that if we do decide that
this asteroid is going to impact Earth, we think it's
going to fall over a populated area, we do have
technologies to mitigate that. We can actually deflect asteroids. NASA
(04:10):
famously did a few years ago with their Dart mission
where they actually smashed into one and can alter its
course through space. So even if it were to have
a chance of impacting we would be able to mitigate it.
Speaker 2 (04:21):
So I think I read somewhere that UK scientists have
now stated that it may be too late to deflect
the asteroid. I mean, how would we even go about
deflecting something like that? Is it something like, I don't know, Armageddon,
where we train a group of miners to become astronauts.
Speaker 3 (04:37):
Yeah, I mean I think that would be a very
exciting scenario, definitely, But yeah, I think realistically, you know,
it would be an uncrued spacecraft. We definitely wouldn't be
sending people, and it's definitely probably not as exciting as
Bruce willis, you know, setting off a nuclear bomb, But
it's more about impacting an asteroid a few years before
it's on its course towards Earth and that basically nudges
(04:57):
it slightly and that means that when it does come
trust it wouldn't impact. But we would really only have
a few years to get that done. So it really
just depends if you know, space agencies are willing to
put in the resource to do that.
Speaker 2 (05:09):
Yeah, and that resource, I mean it would probably cost
a lot of money to do that, right, Yeah.
Speaker 3 (05:14):
I mean you're talking hundreds of millions, if not billions
of dollars for these space missions and you know, they
take a lot time plan to build, to construct, and
then to launch and send, and all of that isn't
a guarantee. You know, things go wrong in space all
the time. But again it's it's just such a small
chance that yeah, I definitely wouldn't think that space agencies
already are looking at those those missions.
Speaker 4 (05:36):
The right question to then ask is how much damage
would it do? These things are moving very fast. The
closing speeds are typically twenty thirty, forty fifty kilometers per second,
so that's a lot of kinetic energy being brought in.
A good rule of thumb here is that the creator
would be about ten to twenty times the size of
the asteroid itself, So ten to twenty times something that's
(05:59):
almost to one hundred meters. We would leave a crater
between one and two kilometers across. If it happens out
in the middle of nowhere, then it's just an interesting crater.
We have one of those in Arizona. It's called Meteor Crater.
It's almost a mile across.
Speaker 1 (06:17):
How often do these kind of bodies show up on
the radar?
Speaker 2 (06:20):
Have we had any near misses in recent history?
Speaker 5 (06:24):
We've had a few.
Speaker 3 (06:25):
I mean there was about a decade ago over Russia
there was the Cheliobinksk media and that basically exploders and
the earbursts basically caused massive amounts of damage. It broke windows,
injured people. Miraculosi didn't tell anyone, but this kind of
scary thing about that asteroids was only about twenty meters across,
and we actually had no idea it was coming. It
(06:45):
was just completely out of the blue. And there was
also more famous events about one hundred years ago, the
Tunguska events, where a similar size asteroids the one we're
talking about, exploded over Siberia. So there are very few
people around, but you know, it flattens true. You know,
millions and millions of trees in the area, So these
definitely happen. But I think it's also you know, it's
a reminder that we are living in a time where
(07:06):
we can detect these things for the most part, we
can predict them ahead of time, and we do have
technology to mitigate them.
Speaker 2 (07:12):
Yeah, and a lot of countries around the world now
have kind of space agencies or ministries of space or
we've even got in New Zealand a Minister for space. Now,
I guess it's a good thing that so many countries
are so interested in space because if something like this happened,
they can coordinate and speak to each other, right.
Speaker 3 (07:30):
Yeah, And that's kind of the benefit of space exploration
is I think a lot of people don't think all
the stuff that we do in space, often in terms
of exploration discovery, but directly benefits us here on Earth
with the technologies. But yeah, I mean, the space agencies
nowadays are massive, and I think we're especially now more
than ever, we're seeing a lot more collaboration between countries,
which you know, it's really important because it's very expensive
(07:53):
through these things. But when we get you know, the
smartest of us working together, we can have these really
incredible missions, you know, like NASA's Dart mission, you know,
sending an asteroid on a different path in space, and
that's you know, that's really incredible when you think about it.
And I always say, you know, the asteroids, the dinosaurs
went extinct because they didn't have a space program, right
whereas we do. So it's quite cool when you think
(08:15):
about the collaboration between countries.
Speaker 2 (08:17):
So that mission that you mentioned, I mean, that sounds
pretty cool what happened there.
Speaker 3 (08:22):
Yeah, and it does sound something you know, orustraight out
of the sci fi. But yeah, as they had their
DART mission, which was double asteroid redirect and they basically
just flew a spacecraft into an asteroid called dimorphous and
the impact basically altered the course of that asteroid over time.
And we studied it over a year and we found
that it was wildly successful, and it basically taught us
(08:44):
that you know, if we have the resources and the
available time, if there is an asteroid that we do
want to deflect, and we have enough time for it
to actually be deflected, it is a possible and viable
means of technology.
Speaker 2 (08:55):
So essentially, to wrap things up, I guess I'll stop
preparing for the worst and finding a shelter somewhere to
hide in.
Speaker 1 (09:03):
I mean, we're looking okay at the moment.
Speaker 3 (09:05):
Yeah, I mean, we've actually we know where it would
impact if it was it's kind of this very thin
strip of land that kind of stretches kind of near
the equator from Central America across to India. But it's
a very small patch of land.
Speaker 2 (09:19):
Thanks for joining us, Joshua, No problem. This asteroid is
just the latest doomsday scenario. That's got people talking, and
(09:39):
the changing face of social media means it's more difficult
to avoid than ever and we don't seem to be
trying to ignore it anymore.
Speaker 1 (09:47):
We're now joined by doctor Lisa Harrison.
Speaker 2 (09:55):
Lisa, doom scrolling is a fairly new term and one
that would probably confuse. It's a time traveling victorian, So
how would you describe it?
Speaker 6 (10:04):
So doom scrolling is? I think it all started when
marketers realize that clickbait would entice people to stay online,
and we end up finding these topics that we just
want to dive deeper into or we think we need to.
And it's actually not a very healthy habit to get
(10:26):
into because it's a very unconscious way of consuming media.
Speaker 2 (10:31):
And what is doom scrolling Because obviously the scrolling part
comes from the likes of TikTok or Facebook or you're
scrolling through your feed, right, But the doom part.
Speaker 6 (10:40):
Yeah, it's where we tend to be focused on all
the negative news that is out there. It tends to
be news that we just don't have any control over either.
But almost like when you know, we get stuck watching
a car crash, you know, you want to know what's
going on, but it's not necesscessarily really a positive experience.
Speaker 2 (11:03):
Well, the term doom scrolling was a word of the
year in New Zealand back in twenty twenty, and it
probably makes sense given how fixated people were on COVID.
Then do you think our doom scrolling has gotten any
better or worse since then?
Speaker 3 (11:16):
Oh?
Speaker 6 (11:17):
Look, I think there's just so much global negative, negative
news out there. I think it's we're tending to get
more sucked into it. But in saying that too, I
think we're becoming more aware that it is a thing
and it's getting talked about more, which is great.
Speaker 1 (11:35):
Is there anything new in this idea?
Speaker 2 (11:36):
I mean, people are currently fretting about a potential killer asteroid.
But if you think about Y two K or twenty
twelve and that whole Mayan calendar situation.
Speaker 5 (11:49):
Behold, the end is coming next year, That is, if
you believe that kind of thing. Here's another tantalizing piece
of evidence of bread discovered in the ancient Mayan ruins
of Kaml Kalco that cites the year twenty twelve. That's
the exact same year mentioned on a thirteen hundred year
old tablet previously found among the nearby ruins of Tortuguero
(12:12):
with this intriguing inscription.
Speaker 7 (12:15):
It's basically saying that the deity Bolon yok de Coups
appears on December twenty first of twenty twelve, and he
descends and he performs a ritual.
Speaker 2 (12:28):
Aren't we a bit predisposed to obsessing over the end
of the world?
Speaker 1 (12:34):
Yeah, I think it tends to be.
Speaker 6 (12:38):
You know, those conspiracy theories tends to suck us in
as well. I think the difference now though, is that
there's just so much more access to these this kind
of content and very diverse opinions and biases and things
like that.
Speaker 2 (12:55):
What do you think some of the factors that are
leading us to doom scroll more regularly.
Speaker 6 (13:02):
I think one of the major aspects of it is
the platforms that these content are being shared on want
to keep you on their platform. So we've we've got
to fight the algorithms now as well. And you know,
they're very sophisticated technology so that you know, they can
(13:23):
make more money to advertisers the longer that we're on
those platforms. So we've we've really got to be more
mindful of what we are doing online.
Speaker 2 (13:33):
Yeah, I think the media often gets blamed for promoting
negative news stories, perhaps fixating on crime reporting or the
doom and gloom too much. This asteroid and the many
many stories on it in the past month are probably
a testament to that. Is the media still to blame
when you have, like you said, so many social media
apps now that are spreading people's reckons their own analysis,
(13:55):
amplifying the panic I guess over these kind of things.
Speaker 6 (13:58):
Look, there's a part play in it, for sure, But
you know, just as a marketing professional from industry, you know,
one of the most important aspects of your marketing is
understanding your audience, and and the audience is the you know,
keeps clicking on these things, so you know, it just
(14:19):
it's it's almost like it's a perfect storm. I think
of marketing, media algorithms, digital consumption being you know, so huge,
and we've got such a diverse what we've got diverse
ways of accessing all this media and news as well.
Speaker 2 (14:38):
If people are worried about how bad their doom scrolling
has become, what can they do to curb their habit.
Speaker 6 (14:45):
Look, there's there's a few tips. I think. Firstly, remembering
that consuming media negative media is like having a bad
diet and can cause anxiety when we don't keep it
in check. But other things we need to think about
connecting with people in real life and face to face
(15:05):
and actually talking to your friend's family or co workers
about some of this content online. And then it becomes
a little bit of you start seeing the biases you know,
and you see how different ways of looking and reflecting
on these negative news items, but also just choosing one
or two credible news sources or news articles that you like,
(15:31):
topics that you like to engage in, and keeping check
of the time that you spend online as well. I
also recommend don't jump on your phone first thing in
the morning or last thing at night. Those times are
really precious to get ready for the day or get
wined down from the day, and this doom scrolling is
(15:55):
not a good habit to get into.
Speaker 1 (15:57):
Thanks for joining us, Lisa.
Speaker 6 (15:59):
My pleasure, Thanks for having me.
Speaker 2 (16:04):
That's it for this episode of the Front Page. You
can read more about today's stories and extensive news coverage
at enzidherld dot co dot nz.
Speaker 1 (16:15):
The Front Page is produced by Ethan.
Speaker 2 (16:17):
Sills and Richard Martin, who is also our sound engineer.
Speaker 1 (16:21):
I'm Chelsea Daniels.
Speaker 2 (16:23):
Subscribe to the front page on iHeartRadio or wherever you
get your podcasts, and tune in tomorrow for another look
behind the headlines.