February 11, 2025 • 17 mins
The latest Taxpayers Union-Curia poll and 1News Verian poll show the coalition Government is losing ground.
Both show the left bloc of Labour, the Greens, and Te Pāti Māori would have enough support to form the next government.
It’s all while Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s first post-cab of the year was marred by questions about Act’s David Seymour – the man set to become Deputy PM in May.
Opposition leader, Chris Hipkins, has gone as far to call for Seymour to be removed as a Minister – over what he’s calling a “pattern of behaviour”.
So, is this the start of a fracture that can’t be healed? And does the public have good cause to be concerned about where we’re headed?
Today on The Front Page, Newstalk ZB political editor, Jason Walls, is with us to discuss the state of politics.
Follow The Front Page on iHeartRadio, Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
You can read more about this and other stories in the New Zealand Herald, online at nzherald.co.nz, or tune in to news bulletins across the NZME network.
Host: Chelsea Daniels
Sound Engineer/Producer: Richard Martin
Producer: Ethan Sills
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:06):
Kielda. I'm Chelsea Daniels and this is the Front Page,
a daily podcast presented by The New Zealand Herald. The
latest Taxpayers Union Courier poll and one News Varian poll
show the coalition government is losing ground. Both show the
left block of Labor, the Greens and to Boti Maldi,
(00:27):
would have enough support to form the next government.
Speaker 2 (00:30):
It's all.
Speaker 1 (00:30):
While Prime Minister Christopher Luxen's first post cab of the
year was marred by questions about ax David Seymour, the
man set to become Deputy PM in May. Opposition leader
Chris Hipkins has gone as far to call for Seymour
to be removed as a minister over what he's calling
a pattern of behavior. So is this the start of
(00:54):
a fracture that can't be healed and does the public
have good cause to be concerned about where we're headed today?
On the front page, Newstalg z B political editor Jason
Wols is with us to discuss the state of politics.
(01:15):
First off, Jason, what do you make of the latest
polling numbers?
Speaker 3 (01:18):
Well, we've got polls coming out of our ears. We
had a long period where we didn't really hear anything
from any polster. And then earlier this week, in the
space of two hours, we got two pretty significant polls,
and listen, they're both quite similar. But the part that
I would say that is worth focusing on is the
fact in both the taxpayers Union funded Caurier poll and
the One News variant poll, it both showed that if
(01:41):
there was an election the day after the poll was done,
that there would be a change in government. It showed
that the left block had overtaken the right block in
both of them, which is a considerable develop It's not
just one rogue poll showing this. Considering they happen so
close together of a similar period of time, it does
give a lot of palls for thought in terms of
what Kiwis are thinking about the government right now. So
(02:03):
I would say, if there's any main takeaway from this,
it's not about the personal popularity of the prime ministers.
Try saying that four times in a row. It's not
about the really the intricate movements of the parties. It's
about that left block versus that right block. And both
of these polls show that we've had a change.
Speaker 1 (02:18):
What Americans leading to that change?
Speaker 3 (02:20):
Oh, it's the economy, stupid and that's not me calling
you stupid. That is the age old phrase that has
been etched in the memory of every politician from around
the world because it is the economy. I mean, you
just have to look at the right track wrong track.
In both of these polls, which were pretty much remarkably similar,
showing that about fifty percent of people in both polls
thought that we were going in the wrong direction as
(02:42):
a country, and about thirty three or thirty seven percent
in between, the two of them show that we're on
the right track. And now, if you're a government, those
are terrible numbers for you because you don't win elections
when people think that your country is going in the
wrong direction and you're in charge of turning that metric around.
So I think that that is the one thing that
(03:02):
has been driving all of these polls. It does have
a bit of a silver lining for the coalition government
because we have yet to see the full impact of
the interest rates from the Reserve Bank coming down being
fully felt by New Zealanders. It takes anywhere between six
to twelve, sometimes even eighteen months for that to fully
(03:23):
filter through when those mortgage rates come down, and that
leads to people having more money in their back pockets.
But now, yes, it looks grim for the government, but
the Prime Minister and he has been arguing that things
will turn around.
Speaker 1 (03:35):
What do you think the general public actually thinks a
right direction is Because you mentioned inflation, it's down, cost
of living is easy, and interest rates are falling and
the seeds of the government's latest push for economic growth
are yet to be sown.
Speaker 3 (03:48):
Right, yeah, well exactly, And I think the right track
wrong track. It's really sort of like a gut instinct,
you know. Somebody asked you whether we are on the
right or the wrong track, and you just kind of
think about it for a couple of seconds. You say,
I think we're on the wrong track. I think we're
on the right track. And there's a number of things
that feed into that, but I would say that the
main one is essentially the economy. People are just feeling poorer,
you know, if you're a if you're a homeowner at
(04:10):
the moment, like I am in Wellington, you're getting hammered
by higher interest rates because mine haven't filtered through yet,
and there's still a few quite a few other people
in that position as well as well as rates, you know,
so they're both coming at you and you're feeling poorer,
and if you're feeling poorer, you're much likely to say
that we're on the wrong track.
Speaker 4 (04:31):
Yep, why not?
Speaker 5 (04:34):
Why not?
Speaker 1 (04:35):
Why not?
Speaker 3 (04:36):
What's the problem The Speaker has said, no, the spegacy.
Speaker 5 (04:40):
Yes, I didn't know that. Yeah, all right, there we go,
turned out the vegacyd we couldn't do it. Oh well,
bureocracy is alive and well in New Zealand. But sometimes
things are worth doing for a good course, they probably
should not provable, do you think I think? Well, I
thought we had it to be hones. Of surprise, we
(05:00):
weren't allowed to.
Speaker 1 (05:03):
What trouble is David Seymour causing Luxon at the moment.
Speaker 3 (05:06):
Oh it's a big old headache for the Prime Minister.
And listen, I say right off the back, this isn't
a coalition destroying spat that Seymour and Luxon are having. Yes,
it looks a little bit silly, Yes, it looks like
they're on different pages on things, but it's not going
to bring down the government. David Seymour was extremely bold
when he told arn Z that the Prime Minister he
(05:26):
was the one that was ill informed. You'll remember that
it was the Prime Minister saying that David Seymour writing
in defense of Pulkinghorn when he was an electra MP
in twenty twenty two and before the trial had even
started or anything along that area had even kicked off.
The Prime Minister said that was ill advised, and David
Seymour went on oran z ed and say that the
Prime Minister saying that he was ill advised was ill advised.
Speaker 2 (05:48):
He's aware of my views on that, but as you
all know, he wasn't the keviinet minister at the time.
But there's been no breach to the Cabinet manual. He
didn't do this as a minister. I just think seiy
Leader was ill a. That's my personal view on it.
But ultimately our question's man.
Speaker 1 (06:06):
Do you regret writing that letter?
Speaker 5 (06:08):
No?
Speaker 6 (06:09):
And my response to that is what sill advised is
commenting when you don't know all the facts and criticizing
a local em pay for doing their work, which is
standing up for their constituent.
Speaker 3 (06:22):
You just don't see those sorts of things. And one
of the most wisest people in all of politics is
somebody called Richard Harmon, who's been around since the eighties
or even before reporting on politics. He's seen it all,
and he said in his blog, and not since nineteen
eighty eight when Richard Prebble openly criticized David LONGI have
we seen such a challenge to a prime minister as
that of David Seymour to Christopher Luxen So and he's
(06:44):
got a point. You just simply do not see ministers
undermining their prime minister like this. Sort of the saving
grace that Seymour has here is that he is from
another party and so the Prime Minister can't just dismiss
them from cabinet without there being some serious repri cushions.
Speaker 1 (07:00):
Yeah, are you surprised how they're talking about each other
in public? I guess it's unusual for a prime minister
and deputy relationship. I'm thinking Peter's in the same boat
as well.
Speaker 3 (07:10):
Yeah, I mean it is quite unusual. And up till
this point, I've been very supportive of the Prime Minister
the way that he's ran the coalition government because he's
not just looking at this term, he's looking beyond into
the term after and potentially the term after that as well.
And to get there, we're in a modern MMP environment.
You need friends, you need support partners. So it's not
just about them toying the line this time around, but
(07:32):
it's also about getting them on board next time. And
part of that is allowing these smaller parties to not
lose their identity, which means it's fine when Winston mouths
off about something, gets fine when David Seymour gets really
into the weeds about some national policy issue that he
doesn't like, that is all absolutely fine. In fact, it's
encouraged because it means the base still sees that these
(07:53):
parties have not lost their identity. But this is a
whole nother level. I mean, it's just frankly, it's about
respect and David Seymour is not showing the Prime Minister respect.
We do know that on Monday nights, after both of
the respective leaders made their comments about each other, they
did have a meeting. Can you describe the tenor of
your meeting with him last night?
Speaker 1 (08:14):
Yeah?
Speaker 5 (08:14):
I was very good, very constructive, for obviously talking about
how is the government going to open up to overseas investment,
which I'm responsible for, how are we going to do
a deregulation program, how are we going to get through
this budget? And save New Zealand just money by reducing
data literalist payments.
Speaker 6 (08:29):
Steak.
Speaker 3 (08:30):
I don't know if I've ever heard a single time
in my almost ten years in Parliament when I've heard
someone say something constructive that they didn't actually mean that
it was a bit of a biffer.
Speaker 1 (08:39):
Is the problem here that Seymour, who's never been actually
in charge before, is still kind of in an opposition mode.
And what I mean by that is he's still doing
the stunts. He's driving a land Rover up on Parliament steps,
for example, and he's still got the soundbitees, he's still
got the quips. Does he need to rain that in
a bit? No?
Speaker 3 (08:59):
I don't think he does. And I still side with
the Prime Minister's thinking on this is that you need
the smaller parties to retain their identity. Act's identity is
inextricably linked to that of David Seymour. I mean, you've
got to remember that David Seymour brought this party from
zero point five percent in the polls to now it
was a nine or ten percent in the polls. He
(09:19):
brought a plethora of new MPs to the table to
the point where he's now sitting around the cabinet table
to the point where in a couple of months he
is going to be the deputy prime minister. He needs
to be able to do what he has been doing
in so far as that he needs to be able
to galvanize that support and let his supporters know how
he is fighting for them in parliament.
Speaker 1 (09:38):
Will he become a bit of a headache though? Was
deputy pm?
Speaker 3 (09:42):
The standard shifts when you're the deputy prime minister, and
in so far as the fact that when the Prime
Minister is away, it's the deputy prime Minister who's in charge,
and that means doing post cabinet press conferences, that means
stepping in for the Prime minister in the house. That's
a lot harder to do. When you have to act
on behalf of the Prime minister. You cannot have your
own identity. Then you need to be talking as the
(10:05):
prime minister. You need to be a statesman, not a studman.
Speaker 1 (10:24):
Do you think that having Winston Peters first then Seymour
second when it comes to that deputy prime minister role
was strategic. I'm thinking who would you prefer to have
reined in and buy your side on the election trail.
Speaker 3 (10:40):
I can tell you already know the answer to that question,
but I do think that it is strategic. I think
that probably Winston Peters fought quite hard to be the
man that was doing it first rather than second. Now
there's two lines of thinking here. The first is, you
know there's a recency bias, so that would favor the
person that has been a deputy Prime minister closer to
the election time because still fresh in people's memories. But
(11:01):
you have to remember Winston Peters usually and historically has
seen his vote rise closer to election time, where he's
been able to be a little bit more Winston and
a little bit more cavalier about things. And he would
have had that in mind in the coalition talks when
National and Act and New Zealand First were around that
table to say, well, if I want to be my
(11:24):
best political self, if you will closer to the election time,
I need the space to be able to do that.
You can't be a statesman when you're also kicking off
about what most people, all the Prime Minister has perceived
to be side shows.
Speaker 1 (11:36):
Now we've got these salvation Armies State of the Nation
twenty twenty five out this morning and it makes for
some grim reading. Actually, we've got rising unemployment, with more
than four hundred thousand people needing welfare support in December
twenty twenty four, the highest number by the way since
the nineteen nineties. And food insecurity among families with children
(11:56):
has also risen sharply, with half of all fit children
reported as going without food often or sometimes. Figures like
this do kind of make you realize perhaps why people
are discontent with the government and think why the country's
moving on in the wrong direction.
Speaker 3 (12:13):
Hey, well, yeah, absolutely, And now all of these sort
of reports will give sort of credence to the cause
from the left that the government need to be doing
more in a lot of places in terms of their
economic priorities. And I mean you can almost script the
response from the Prime Minister on this issue before he
even makes his comments later today, which is that he'll
(12:34):
say the best way to get people out of poverty
is to grow the pie, to grow the economy, and
that's why he'll write off a bunch of things that
the government's been doing. I'm not saying he's wrong, in
fact that it is economically speaking, that is one of
the ways to do it. But it really leaves them
quite vulnerable to attack from the opposition, And HARKing back
to the polls, when you see there is so little
between the left and the right, reports like this really
(12:56):
do go to feed the narrative that the government is
not helping as much it needs to be.
Speaker 4 (13:05):
I think the people can see that the country's going
in the wrong direction. Actually, Labor has been going up
and all of the recent poles that have been released
since Christmas. I'm encouraged by that. But we know we've
got a lot of work to do. You know, we've
still got a year and a half to go. So
polls at this point, you know, are interesting and it's
nice to be doing well in them, but you know,
I think we've still got a fair amount of water
(13:26):
to flow under the bridge.
Speaker 1 (13:27):
Just yet. When we talk about the polls, Labor jumped
four points to thirty three percent. Can you think of
anything the party's done to deserve that jump? I mean,
have they been a good opposition thus far? Is it
just a case of the government underperforming so they look
better in comparison?
Speaker 3 (13:45):
Oh, listen, the best thing that the Labor Party have
done is not do anything. They've let the government kind
of almost fall over themselves. And that's not the sense
that the government has technically done anything that would warrant
the fact that they're in They fell into the twenties.
It's again, it comes down to the economy. There's nothing
that the opposition can do about that in opposition apart
from taking cracks at the government and saying things that
(14:07):
aren't good enough. And that's because of you. But eventually
the Labor Party is going to have to start introducing
some policies. They are going to have to start talking
in a very tangible way about what they would do
to make things better. Now. I know it's still early days,
it's still about a year and a half till the election,
but those conversations need to start happening because voters need
(14:27):
to have some alternatives to the barracking.
Speaker 1 (14:30):
And while we're talking about the left block as well,
Tabati Mali is down three points on five percent. Is
this surprising because I thought the party had gained some
serious momentum there for a second, No, it's.
Speaker 3 (14:41):
Not surprising at all. The last poll that was taken
from TV and Z was December ninth, and that incorporated
the HIKOI, that incorporated Hannah Rachdi Mighty Klark's viral Harker.
They had a lot, a lot of momentum, and between
then and now we really haven't heard all that much
from Tiparty Mardi. They were up at win Tonguey, Yes
they were in the news for that, but there was
(15:02):
nothing further to add in the respect of their momentum
than than what we saw in December. And it goes
to show, you know, Tiparty Mary are at their best
poland wise when they're really really able to get in
front of a camera and mobilize that support. So I
wouldn't be surprised to see more of that sort of
(15:22):
action closer to election time to be able to bolster
their support.
Speaker 1 (15:25):
And what about the Greens. They're steady on ten percent
after a pretty dramatic year last year, to say the least,
do you reckon things will only continue to improve for
them with Mortimer Davidson's return.
Speaker 3 (15:37):
It's hard to say. I mean, the Greens do also
suffer from the same problem as Labor is that people
do get a little bit annoyed and a little bit
tired of the repetitive criticism from the opposition, which puts
them in a really hard place. Because if you are
the opposition, your job is to oppose and where you know,
press gallery journalists don't do soft news on parties just
(15:59):
trying to get the good word out there. It's not
how we fold political parties to account. So the best
way that you can get in the news is with
ideas or with you know, frankly quite witty and clever
criticisms of the government. So you know, Chloe Sawbrick is
good in that respect. However, you know she has the
tendency to sometimes sound a little bit like a university professor,
(16:20):
and it's quite hard to put that into a sound bite.
That's not to say what she's saying isn't good, it
just sometimes can get a little bit long winded. So
I reckon they've got the same problem as labor. They're
going to have to start proposing for something soon. And
I know that they have been, but we need a
bit more of a green wave for people to start
taking some more notice. But we still got time.
Speaker 1 (16:39):
And what do you reckon the coalition needs to do
to improve their numbers within the next What are we
a year and a half out?
Speaker 3 (16:45):
I reckon they just need to wait it out. I mean,
you need the business of governing. You need to create
strong message that you're creating growth, that you're trying to
create jobs, that you're bringing inflation down. Nikola Willis it's
all she talks about, and quite rightly, she's the finance minister.
They just need to wait for the economic prospects in
this country to turn around, when those interest rate cuts
start flowing through, and then their fortunes will turn around.
(17:09):
Then they can change the narrative slightly. But until that happens,
it's going to be very very hard for them to
turn that right track wrong track measure around.
Speaker 1 (17:18):
Thanks for joining us, Jason, No problem at all. That's
it for this episode of The Front Page. You can
read more about today's stories and extensive news coverage at
enzdherld dot co dot MZ. The Front Page is produced
by Ethan Sills and Richard Martin, who is also our
(17:38):
sound engineer. I'm Chelsea Daniels. Subscribe to The Front Page
on iHeartRadio or wherever you get your podcasts, and tune
in tomorrow for another look behind the headlines.
Kielda. I'm Chelsea Daniels and this is the Front Page,
a daily podcast presented by The New Zealand Herald. The
latest Taxpayers Union Courier poll and one News Varian poll
show the coalition government is losing ground. Both show the
left block of Labor, the Greens and to Boti Maldi,
(00:27):
would have enough support to form the next government.
Speaker 2 (00:30):
It's all.
Speaker 1 (00:30):
While Prime Minister Christopher Luxen's first post cab of the
year was marred by questions about ax David Seymour, the
man set to become Deputy PM in May. Opposition leader
Chris Hipkins has gone as far to call for Seymour
to be removed as a minister over what he's calling
a pattern of behavior. So is this the start of
(00:54):
a fracture that can't be healed and does the public
have good cause to be concerned about where we're headed today?
On the front page, Newstalg z B political editor Jason
Wols is with us to discuss the state of politics.
(01:15):
First off, Jason, what do you make of the latest
polling numbers?
Speaker 3 (01:18):
Well, we've got polls coming out of our ears. We
had a long period where we didn't really hear anything
from any polster. And then earlier this week, in the
space of two hours, we got two pretty significant polls,
and listen, they're both quite similar. But the part that
I would say that is worth focusing on is the
fact in both the taxpayers Union funded Caurier poll and
the One News variant poll, it both showed that if
(01:41):
there was an election the day after the poll was done,
that there would be a change in government. It showed
that the left block had overtaken the right block in
both of them, which is a considerable develop It's not
just one rogue poll showing this. Considering they happen so
close together of a similar period of time, it does
give a lot of palls for thought in terms of
what Kiwis are thinking about the government right now. So
(02:03):
I would say, if there's any main takeaway from this,
it's not about the personal popularity of the prime ministers.
Try saying that four times in a row. It's not
about the really the intricate movements of the parties. It's
about that left block versus that right block. And both
of these polls show that we've had a change.
Speaker 1 (02:18):
What Americans leading to that change?
Speaker 3 (02:20):
Oh, it's the economy, stupid and that's not me calling
you stupid. That is the age old phrase that has
been etched in the memory of every politician from around
the world because it is the economy. I mean, you
just have to look at the right track wrong track.
In both of these polls, which were pretty much remarkably similar,
showing that about fifty percent of people in both polls
thought that we were going in the wrong direction as
(02:42):
a country, and about thirty three or thirty seven percent
in between, the two of them show that we're on
the right track. And now, if you're a government, those
are terrible numbers for you because you don't win elections
when people think that your country is going in the
wrong direction and you're in charge of turning that metric around.
So I think that that is the one thing that
(03:02):
has been driving all of these polls. It does have
a bit of a silver lining for the coalition government
because we have yet to see the full impact of
the interest rates from the Reserve Bank coming down being
fully felt by New Zealanders. It takes anywhere between six
to twelve, sometimes even eighteen months for that to fully
(03:23):
filter through when those mortgage rates come down, and that
leads to people having more money in their back pockets.
But now, yes, it looks grim for the government, but
the Prime Minister and he has been arguing that things
will turn around.
Speaker 1 (03:35):
What do you think the general public actually thinks a
right direction is Because you mentioned inflation, it's down, cost
of living is easy, and interest rates are falling and
the seeds of the government's latest push for economic growth
are yet to be sown.
Speaker 3 (03:48):
Right, yeah, well exactly, And I think the right track
wrong track. It's really sort of like a gut instinct,
you know. Somebody asked you whether we are on the
right or the wrong track, and you just kind of
think about it for a couple of seconds. You say,
I think we're on the wrong track. I think we're
on the right track. And there's a number of things
that feed into that, but I would say that the
main one is essentially the economy. People are just feeling poorer,
you know, if you're a if you're a homeowner at
(04:10):
the moment, like I am in Wellington, you're getting hammered
by higher interest rates because mine haven't filtered through yet,
and there's still a few quite a few other people
in that position as well as well as rates, you know,
so they're both coming at you and you're feeling poorer,
and if you're feeling poorer, you're much likely to say
that we're on the wrong track.
Speaker 4 (04:31):
Yep, why not?
Speaker 5 (04:34):
Why not?
Speaker 1 (04:35):
Why not?
Speaker 3 (04:36):
What's the problem The Speaker has said, no, the spegacy.
Speaker 5 (04:40):
Yes, I didn't know that. Yeah, all right, there we go,
turned out the vegacyd we couldn't do it. Oh well,
bureocracy is alive and well in New Zealand. But sometimes
things are worth doing for a good course, they probably
should not provable, do you think I think? Well, I
thought we had it to be hones. Of surprise, we
(05:00):
weren't allowed to.
Speaker 1 (05:03):
What trouble is David Seymour causing Luxon at the moment.
Speaker 3 (05:06):
Oh it's a big old headache for the Prime Minister.
And listen, I say right off the back, this isn't
a coalition destroying spat that Seymour and Luxon are having. Yes,
it looks a little bit silly, Yes, it looks like
they're on different pages on things, but it's not going
to bring down the government. David Seymour was extremely bold
when he told arn Z that the Prime Minister he
(05:26):
was the one that was ill informed. You'll remember that
it was the Prime Minister saying that David Seymour writing
in defense of Pulkinghorn when he was an electra MP
in twenty twenty two and before the trial had even
started or anything along that area had even kicked off.
The Prime Minister said that was ill advised, and David
Seymour went on oran z ed and say that the
Prime Minister saying that he was ill advised was ill advised.
Speaker 2 (05:48):
He's aware of my views on that, but as you
all know, he wasn't the keviinet minister at the time.
But there's been no breach to the Cabinet manual. He
didn't do this as a minister. I just think seiy
Leader was ill a. That's my personal view on it.
But ultimately our question's man.
Speaker 1 (06:06):
Do you regret writing that letter?
Speaker 5 (06:08):
No?
Speaker 6 (06:09):
And my response to that is what sill advised is
commenting when you don't know all the facts and criticizing
a local em pay for doing their work, which is
standing up for their constituent.
Speaker 3 (06:22):
You just don't see those sorts of things. And one
of the most wisest people in all of politics is
somebody called Richard Harmon, who's been around since the eighties
or even before reporting on politics. He's seen it all,
and he said in his blog, and not since nineteen
eighty eight when Richard Prebble openly criticized David LONGI have
we seen such a challenge to a prime minister as
that of David Seymour to Christopher Luxen So and he's
(06:44):
got a point. You just simply do not see ministers
undermining their prime minister like this. Sort of the saving
grace that Seymour has here is that he is from
another party and so the Prime Minister can't just dismiss
them from cabinet without there being some serious repri cushions.
Speaker 1 (07:00):
Yeah, are you surprised how they're talking about each other
in public? I guess it's unusual for a prime minister
and deputy relationship. I'm thinking Peter's in the same boat
as well.
Speaker 3 (07:10):
Yeah, I mean it is quite unusual. And up till
this point, I've been very supportive of the Prime Minister
the way that he's ran the coalition government because he's
not just looking at this term, he's looking beyond into
the term after and potentially the term after that as well.
And to get there, we're in a modern MMP environment.
You need friends, you need support partners. So it's not
just about them toying the line this time around, but
(07:32):
it's also about getting them on board next time. And
part of that is allowing these smaller parties to not
lose their identity, which means it's fine when Winston mouths
off about something, gets fine when David Seymour gets really
into the weeds about some national policy issue that he
doesn't like, that is all absolutely fine. In fact, it's
encouraged because it means the base still sees that these
(07:53):
parties have not lost their identity. But this is a
whole nother level. I mean, it's just frankly, it's about
respect and David Seymour is not showing the Prime Minister respect.
We do know that on Monday nights, after both of
the respective leaders made their comments about each other, they
did have a meeting. Can you describe the tenor of
your meeting with him last night?
Speaker 1 (08:14):
Yeah?
Speaker 5 (08:14):
I was very good, very constructive, for obviously talking about
how is the government going to open up to overseas investment,
which I'm responsible for, how are we going to do
a deregulation program, how are we going to get through
this budget? And save New Zealand just money by reducing
data literalist payments.
Speaker 6 (08:29):
Steak.
Speaker 3 (08:30):
I don't know if I've ever heard a single time
in my almost ten years in Parliament when I've heard
someone say something constructive that they didn't actually mean that
it was a bit of a biffer.
Speaker 1 (08:39):
Is the problem here that Seymour, who's never been actually
in charge before, is still kind of in an opposition mode.
And what I mean by that is he's still doing
the stunts. He's driving a land Rover up on Parliament steps,
for example, and he's still got the soundbitees, he's still
got the quips. Does he need to rain that in
a bit? No?
Speaker 3 (08:59):
I don't think he does. And I still side with
the Prime Minister's thinking on this is that you need
the smaller parties to retain their identity. Act's identity is
inextricably linked to that of David Seymour. I mean, you've
got to remember that David Seymour brought this party from
zero point five percent in the polls to now it
was a nine or ten percent in the polls. He
(09:19):
brought a plethora of new MPs to the table to
the point where he's now sitting around the cabinet table
to the point where in a couple of months he
is going to be the deputy prime minister. He needs
to be able to do what he has been doing
in so far as that he needs to be able
to galvanize that support and let his supporters know how
he is fighting for them in parliament.
Speaker 1 (09:38):
Will he become a bit of a headache though? Was
deputy pm?
Speaker 3 (09:42):
The standard shifts when you're the deputy prime minister, and
in so far as the fact that when the Prime
Minister is away, it's the deputy prime Minister who's in charge,
and that means doing post cabinet press conferences, that means
stepping in for the Prime minister in the house. That's
a lot harder to do. When you have to act
on behalf of the Prime minister. You cannot have your
own identity. Then you need to be talking as the
(10:05):
prime minister. You need to be a statesman, not a studman.
Speaker 1 (10:24):
Do you think that having Winston Peters first then Seymour
second when it comes to that deputy prime minister role
was strategic. I'm thinking who would you prefer to have
reined in and buy your side on the election trail.
Speaker 3 (10:40):
I can tell you already know the answer to that question,
but I do think that it is strategic. I think
that probably Winston Peters fought quite hard to be the
man that was doing it first rather than second. Now
there's two lines of thinking here. The first is, you
know there's a recency bias, so that would favor the
person that has been a deputy Prime minister closer to
the election time because still fresh in people's memories. But
(11:01):
you have to remember Winston Peters usually and historically has
seen his vote rise closer to election time, where he's
been able to be a little bit more Winston and
a little bit more cavalier about things. And he would
have had that in mind in the coalition talks when
National and Act and New Zealand First were around that
table to say, well, if I want to be my
(11:24):
best political self, if you will closer to the election time,
I need the space to be able to do that.
You can't be a statesman when you're also kicking off
about what most people, all the Prime Minister has perceived
to be side shows.
Speaker 1 (11:36):
Now we've got these salvation Armies State of the Nation
twenty twenty five out this morning and it makes for
some grim reading. Actually, we've got rising unemployment, with more
than four hundred thousand people needing welfare support in December
twenty twenty four, the highest number by the way since
the nineteen nineties. And food insecurity among families with children
(11:56):
has also risen sharply, with half of all fit children
reported as going without food often or sometimes. Figures like
this do kind of make you realize perhaps why people
are discontent with the government and think why the country's
moving on in the wrong direction.
Speaker 3 (12:13):
Hey, well, yeah, absolutely, And now all of these sort
of reports will give sort of credence to the cause
from the left that the government need to be doing
more in a lot of places in terms of their
economic priorities. And I mean you can almost script the
response from the Prime Minister on this issue before he
even makes his comments later today, which is that he'll
(12:34):
say the best way to get people out of poverty
is to grow the pie, to grow the economy, and
that's why he'll write off a bunch of things that
the government's been doing. I'm not saying he's wrong, in
fact that it is economically speaking, that is one of
the ways to do it. But it really leaves them
quite vulnerable to attack from the opposition, And HARKing back
to the polls, when you see there is so little
between the left and the right, reports like this really
(12:56):
do go to feed the narrative that the government is
not helping as much it needs to be.
Speaker 4 (13:05):
I think the people can see that the country's going
in the wrong direction. Actually, Labor has been going up
and all of the recent poles that have been released
since Christmas. I'm encouraged by that. But we know we've
got a lot of work to do. You know, we've
still got a year and a half to go. So
polls at this point, you know, are interesting and it's
nice to be doing well in them, but you know,
I think we've still got a fair amount of water
(13:26):
to flow under the bridge.
Speaker 1 (13:27):
Just yet. When we talk about the polls, Labor jumped
four points to thirty three percent. Can you think of
anything the party's done to deserve that jump? I mean,
have they been a good opposition thus far? Is it
just a case of the government underperforming so they look
better in comparison?
Speaker 3 (13:45):
Oh, listen, the best thing that the Labor Party have
done is not do anything. They've let the government kind
of almost fall over themselves. And that's not the sense
that the government has technically done anything that would warrant
the fact that they're in They fell into the twenties.
It's again, it comes down to the economy. There's nothing
that the opposition can do about that in opposition apart
from taking cracks at the government and saying things that
(14:07):
aren't good enough. And that's because of you. But eventually
the Labor Party is going to have to start introducing
some policies. They are going to have to start talking
in a very tangible way about what they would do
to make things better. Now. I know it's still early days,
it's still about a year and a half till the election,
but those conversations need to start happening because voters need
(14:27):
to have some alternatives to the barracking.
Speaker 1 (14:30):
And while we're talking about the left block as well,
Tabati Mali is down three points on five percent. Is
this surprising because I thought the party had gained some
serious momentum there for a second, No, it's.
Speaker 3 (14:41):
Not surprising at all. The last poll that was taken
from TV and Z was December ninth, and that incorporated
the HIKOI, that incorporated Hannah Rachdi Mighty Klark's viral Harker.
They had a lot, a lot of momentum, and between
then and now we really haven't heard all that much
from Tiparty Mardi. They were up at win Tonguey, Yes
they were in the news for that, but there was
(15:02):
nothing further to add in the respect of their momentum
than than what we saw in December. And it goes
to show, you know, Tiparty Mary are at their best
poland wise when they're really really able to get in
front of a camera and mobilize that support. So I
wouldn't be surprised to see more of that sort of
(15:22):
action closer to election time to be able to bolster
their support.
Speaker 1 (15:25):
And what about the Greens. They're steady on ten percent
after a pretty dramatic year last year, to say the least,
do you reckon things will only continue to improve for
them with Mortimer Davidson's return.
Speaker 3 (15:37):
It's hard to say. I mean, the Greens do also
suffer from the same problem as Labor is that people
do get a little bit annoyed and a little bit
tired of the repetitive criticism from the opposition, which puts
them in a really hard place. Because if you are
the opposition, your job is to oppose and where you know,
press gallery journalists don't do soft news on parties just
(15:59):
trying to get the good word out there. It's not
how we fold political parties to account. So the best
way that you can get in the news is with
ideas or with you know, frankly quite witty and clever
criticisms of the government. So you know, Chloe Sawbrick is
good in that respect. However, you know she has the
tendency to sometimes sound a little bit like a university professor,
(16:20):
and it's quite hard to put that into a sound bite.
That's not to say what she's saying isn't good, it
just sometimes can get a little bit long winded. So
I reckon they've got the same problem as labor. They're
going to have to start proposing for something soon. And
I know that they have been, but we need a
bit more of a green wave for people to start
taking some more notice. But we still got time.
Speaker 1 (16:39):
And what do you reckon the coalition needs to do
to improve their numbers within the next What are we
a year and a half out?
Speaker 3 (16:45):
I reckon they just need to wait it out. I mean,
you need the business of governing. You need to create
strong message that you're creating growth, that you're trying to
create jobs, that you're bringing inflation down. Nikola Willis it's
all she talks about, and quite rightly, she's the finance minister.
They just need to wait for the economic prospects in
this country to turn around, when those interest rate cuts
start flowing through, and then their fortunes will turn around.
(17:09):
Then they can change the narrative slightly. But until that happens,
it's going to be very very hard for them to
turn that right track wrong track measure around.
Speaker 1 (17:18):
Thanks for joining us, Jason, No problem at all. That's
it for this episode of The Front Page. You can
read more about today's stories and extensive news coverage at
enzdherld dot co dot MZ. The Front Page is produced
by Ethan Sills and Richard Martin, who is also our
(17:38):
sound engineer. I'm Chelsea Daniels. Subscribe to The Front Page
on iHeartRadio or wherever you get your podcasts, and tune
in tomorrow for another look behind the headlines.
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