February 3, 2025 • 21 mins
Mining has become a key part of the Government’s plans for economic growth.
Resources Minister – and self-appointed ‘Matua of Mining’ - Shane Jones has unveiled a plan to double exports to $3 billion by 2035, alongside a list of 37-strong Critical Minerals List and a national minerals strategy.
While the plan has been met with criticism from environmentalists and the opposition, there has been some positive feedback from academics, praising the plan for its commitment to ‘pipe-line development’.
But do the numbers stack up? And how many of those critical minerals are actually sitting beneath our feet?
Today on The Front Page, Massey University Professor of Geography Glenn Banks is with us to dig into the government’s mining plans.
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Producer: Ethan Sills
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:06):
Kyoda. I'm Chelsea Daniels and this is the Front Page,
a daily podcast presented by the New Zealand Herald. Mining
has become a key part of the government's plans for
economic growth. Resources Minister and self appointed martywa of Mining
(00:26):
Shane Jones, has unveiled a plan to double exports to
three billion dollars by twenty thirty five, alongside a list
of thirty seven strong critical minerals and a national mineral strategy.
While the plan has been met with some criticism from
environmentalists and the opposition, there has been some positive feedback
(00:47):
from academics, praising the plan for its commitment to pipeline development.
But do the numbers stack up? And how many of
those critical minerals are actually sitting beneath our feet today?
On the front page, Massy University professor of geography Glenn
Banks is with us to dig into the government's mining plans. Glenn,
(01:13):
you wrote recently that society needs mining, and mining itself
is not inherently or necessarily rapacious. Can you expand on
that for us?
Speaker 2 (01:23):
I suppose two parts.
Speaker 3 (01:24):
One is our society is built on minerals that are mined.
The mining industry has a nice little saying that goes,
if it's not growing, then it's mined, and that applies
to everything within society. So everything from the technology we're
using today to the desk you're sitting at to the
building you're in heavily reliant, totally reliant on a mining sector.
Speaker 2 (01:47):
So we need it now.
Speaker 3 (01:49):
In terms of does that mean we should give them
free license to run around and do what they like.
For a long time we kind of did, and then
really from the nineteen sixties seventies onwards, there's been increasing
regulation of the sector to try and make sure that
they don't or that they behave in a responsible way
(02:10):
in terms of their environmental impact but also their contribution
to the economy and to society generally. So that's why
you see mining companies have big corporate social responsibility programs
where they make sure that they're very visible in terms
of what they're doing in the communities that they operate in. So, yeah,
we need them, and they don't necessarily always make a
(02:32):
horrible mess. These days, it's much better. It's much better regulated,
and I think one of the things about the draft
Mineral Strategy that was released was that there was a
very nice statement in there and the introduction to it
which talks about exactly that, about we need a mining industry,
but we need one that actually behaves. A lot of
the mining sector does behave pretty well.
Speaker 1 (02:52):
With all that in mind, I guess what was your
first reaction to the government's new mining policy.
Speaker 2 (02:57):
Well, like I say, I.
Speaker 3 (02:58):
Think there's some good stuff in there, and I think
Shane Jones is he's completely right that we need a
longer term vision for what we want from the mining industry.
Speaker 2 (03:08):
For too long, it's just been hidden miss.
Speaker 3 (03:11):
You know, the miners will come and go, but we
haven't had a clear sense of the sector and the
way in which it can contribute to society generally. So
that strategic element I think is good. There's very little
in terms of detail about what that means in terms
of how the industry is going to be managed differently
now to what it was previously. Shane Jones's line that
(03:31):
you know, now we'll be able to miners will be
able to get up and operate. They were previously the
Federation gold Mine in Reefed and started up under the
previous government. It got all it's consenting under the previous
government through the regional Council and local council. So it's
not like mining was completely off the cards previously. You know,
he's trying to make a case that, ah, there was
(03:52):
no mining. You know, mining was.
Speaker 2 (03:53):
Impossible before it wasn't.
Speaker 3 (03:55):
So it's a little bit hard to see exactly how
things are going to be very different the fast The
linking of the mineral strategy with the fast track legislation
is probably the most obvious sign that we're going to
see less real detailed examination of the new mining prospects
out there, the way in which well I'm sure you
(04:18):
know and lots of the listeners would know about the
criticism of the fast track legislation, just removing some of
that oversight of the environmental impacts and certainly reducing the
amount of public consultation in the process.
Speaker 2 (04:32):
So that's that's of concern.
Speaker 3 (04:34):
If we're starting to wind back the dial in terms
of the amount of really close looking at the industry
before we allow for new minds around the place.
Speaker 1 (04:43):
Well, labor reckons that it's shortsighted, environmentally, reckless and a
giveaway to private mining interests. Are they right to have
those concerns?
Speaker 2 (04:52):
Do you think? Yeah?
Speaker 3 (04:52):
I think they absolutely are and that was one of
the things that struck me about the changes that were
made to the Criticalerals list when that came through, when
Shane Jones talked about that on Friday, including gold and
the coal on the Critical Minerals list. I mean, the
current the way in which critical minerals have been defined
(05:14):
globally in the last five years when the terms come
back into vogue, has been about minerals that support the
green transition.
Speaker 2 (05:22):
That's been the real emphasis. And to put.
Speaker 3 (05:24):
Coal on that list just seems a bit obnoxious, really,
and it completely undermines the credibility of the list in
the eyes of anyone with an interest in green transition processes.
It's really about securing the place of the existing industry
and making sure that the minerals we have are able
to be exploited by corporate interests. It's nothing to do
(05:47):
with supporting the green transition. You know that critical minerals
doing our bit for the green transition.
Speaker 2 (05:53):
That's just a cloak.
Speaker 3 (05:53):
For more coal and more gold as far as I can.
Speaker 4 (05:57):
See, right, I mean, what would be the climate impacts
of that of increasing coal extraction?
Speaker 5 (06:04):
Well, it's not there's no very little climate impact on
an extraction.
Speaker 4 (06:08):
Sure, but that's straight to to burn, right, Yeah, and.
Speaker 5 (06:11):
So when our coal goes to places like India, their
coal is high ash, ours is low ash. So it's
actually better for the environment. Obviously, people want to stop
using coal, but at the moment people are using coal.
We have coal. We have coal mines on the West
Coast where mining is about a fifth of the GDP.
Speaker 3 (06:33):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (06:33):
Shane Jones noted that of the thirty seven minerals included
on that list, we produce or have the potential to
produce twenty one here in New Zealand. Does that mean
that there are some we might be able to produce
but we don't actually know for certain what's happening with
the other sixteen.
Speaker 3 (06:51):
Well, the ones down the bottom of his list, the
other sixteen are ones that we it's been decided that
we need to try and secure supplies of them for
the ongoing functioning of our industry and manufacturing. And so
the statement's quite clear that the ones that we can't
produce in the country, the only way that we're able
to secure supply is building good relationships with the countries
(07:14):
and the companies that are involved in extraction of those minerals.
So it's about supply chain security rather than anything that
we might potentially do in the future. The critical minerals
list that we have is quite unique. We're the only
country of the major countries that have produced a list.
Speaker 2 (07:31):
Of critical minerals which have aggregate on.
Speaker 3 (07:33):
It, so quarries rock and sand for construction when that
was on the draft list. And one of the things
that struck me about that was that was actually a
fairly realistic proposition. If you look at the easily the
largest number of mining operations, if you can call them
that quarries and aggregate gravel pits that we use to
(07:54):
get the stones that we need for construction and roading
and all of those those other supplies. That's, in a sense,
that's a much more strategic interest to us. And I
thought it was quite realistic, as I say, to put
aggregate on the list of critical minerals. But what it
does is it shifts that that dial completely away from
(08:15):
this notion that the global notion the critical minerals are
the ones to support a green transition. It's more about
it's a much more a strategic list of minerals that
we need rather than a list of critical minerals. Right.
Speaker 1 (08:28):
So minerals like copper, nickel, and cobalt, they're key in
the production of many clean energy technologies, right, They're needed
to make batteries for electric vehicles and wind turn bins
and things like that. But they're also I guess used
for other more nefarious I guess purposes, weapons and things
like that. How do we strike a balance between looking
(08:49):
at things that we need to create clean energy versus
perhaps those other kind of things.
Speaker 3 (08:55):
Yeah, and that's where things become very very muddied. The
critical minerals we need for the green transition. If you
listed some of them out there, copernickel, things like lithium,
to regard it as the much more in terms of volume,
far and away the most significant ones for a green transition.
So it's things that we already produce and we already
(09:16):
use for the wide range of things across society, including
some of those what you labeled nefarious activities. So the
military sector in the US is highly dependent on massive
amounts of supply of those same minerals. So it's not
like these things that are just used solely for the
green transition, and that to say that, you know, we
(09:38):
need to do more of this for the green transition
is again it's a cloak for other forms of use
that a lot of these minerals are put towards.
Speaker 1 (09:47):
How do we strike a balance though, or do we
just have to trust companies to do the right thing.
Speaker 3 (09:52):
Yeah, and in some commodities there are we are starting
to see companies and regulators they're really looking at where
these things are coming from and conditions of extraction. So
the obvious one conflict diamonds that have been around for
a while now, where basically the ones that you're supposed
to be buying in shops are coming from areas which
(10:15):
are certified not to be involved in violent conflict of
one kind or another. So gold is another one which
they're starting to look at in terms of where it's
coming from. There's real concerns about cobalt and coal, tan
and some of those other critical minerals needed for green
energy transition coming out of places like the DRC Democratic
(10:37):
Republic of Congo, because they are coming out of conditions
of conflict, of child.
Speaker 2 (10:42):
Labor and all sorts of human rights abuses.
Speaker 3 (10:44):
So trying to find balances in terms of the extraction
where these things are coming from is a little bit
easier than trying to regulate how they are used.
Speaker 2 (10:54):
Once they hit the global markets.
Speaker 3 (10:56):
So yeah, there's a fair element of trust, but there's
also a blindness that we have to adopt to some
of these things. When you think about the size of
the military apparatus that's operating around the world that consume
such vast quantities of these minerals.
Speaker 1 (11:25):
You mentioned that many of these minerals are being mined
in poorer countries. Hey, wasn't it actually until last year
when we were talking about the New Caledonia riots on
this podcast that I actually learned that those islands are
a major source of the world's nickel, something Tesla uses
for its evs and stuff.
Speaker 4 (11:43):
Nickel is huge in New Caledonia. They have upwards of
twenty percent of global reserve. Some estimates say up to
thirty percent of global nickel reserves, and it's a very
precious metal and used in electric vehicle batteries. In fact,
a deal was struck with Tesla back in twenty twenty
one for one of the major minds there in New Caledonia.
(12:05):
So the significance of New Caledonia is not going away.
Speaker 1 (12:09):
Can we ever move to a greener society? Without utilizing
these resources or does it come hand in hand.
Speaker 3 (12:18):
Yeah, there's a fairly lengthy academic literature on the relationship
between mineral extraction and conflict, and there's a sense in
which in a lot of parts of the world, particularly
where governance isn't great, you get a vicious cycle between
increasing extraction of minerals that leads feeds into economic mismanagement, corruption, violence, conflict,
(12:43):
and all of these sorts of things. So there is
a real concern about that. Yeah, neucleodonia is interesting. There's
some really interesting stuff going on in terms of nickel
extraction these days out of Indonesia, which is completely reshaped
the nickel supply chain quite markedly. Interestingly, there's massive Chinese
investment in nickel in Indonesia in particular. So the geopolitics
(13:07):
of all of this become really interesting when you think that,
roughly on taking across all of the various elements, about
forty percent of global supply of the so called transition
minerals come out of China.
Speaker 1 (13:19):
You mentioned gold and coal on the list of thirty seven.
I understand that this is a push to perhaps introduce
new minerals to our market, be able to export different
kinds of minerals. But what do you think the chances
are of this happening and they're just being a whole
bunch more gold mines pop up.
Speaker 3 (13:39):
Well, I think one of the points that may have
been changed Jones. It may have been one of the
other commentators made was to start up a gold mine,
or to start up any kind of mining, there's actually
a fair lead time associated with it, so we're not
likely to see we might see a gold mine or.
Speaker 2 (13:54):
Two in the next few years.
Speaker 3 (13:56):
This stuff around Central Otago, for example, and certainly around
where there's some fairly advanced gold prospects, again all developed
under the previous government.
Speaker 2 (14:06):
But in terms of some of the.
Speaker 3 (14:08):
Things like vanadium and antemy might be slightly different in
the sense that it's often co produced with gold. So
the reeft and deposit that they're looking at for antimony
is co produced with gold in many instances. So there's
a possibility that if gold gets up and running relatively
quickly there, we might start to see some increased supply
(14:30):
out of the West coast. But things like vanadium, which
trans Tasman resources are suddenly discovered. Late last year was
fairly high quantities in the ironstand that they're looking at
off Taranaki, that is probably going to be a longer
term prospect. So you know, ten years from binding a
prospect to opening a opening a mine of any kind
(14:52):
is not one typical in the industry. Shane Jones clearly
wants to try and speed that process up. But whether
we actually start to see any of that, give that
the expiration for a lot of the transition minerals still
need or the critical minerals on that list still needs
to be done. So it's going to be ten years
at least before any of these potential and perspective critical
(15:15):
minerals start to come online.
Speaker 6 (15:19):
Now, I know this anoise some of the green beetles,
but they're never ever going to accept my pro industry,
pro growth agenda, and I just have to acknowledge that
their players and their stakeholders in the broader political system
and respect of mining, we are going to turbocharge mining.
(15:41):
We are going to increase our export revenue from mining,
our job prospects and mining, and it'll be done within guardrails.
But we're not going to have mining tainted and stigmatized
by false information and have it blighted high history onics
(16:02):
and that's pretty much what the Green Party and their
fellow travelers represent.
Speaker 1 (16:12):
Glenn, you and a colleague once proposed seven key behaviors
for a mining sector committed to sustainable development. What are
some of the key things these companies need to commit to.
Speaker 3 (16:24):
Well, there's a few that really stand out. The first
is that they in terms of the sorts of behaviors,
they should be aiming for absolute world best practice in
terms of environmental and social management practices. The mining industry
here might like to and you know, there are some
pretty responsible operators, but there's also some lapses from time
(16:46):
to time. So, just in the last six months, I've
been keeping track of the number of breaches of environmental
monitoring conditions that coal and gold mines around the place
have found themselves in trouble with.
Speaker 2 (16:57):
So McCrae's Blackdown and Sinfilote.
Speaker 3 (17:00):
Were found in breach of the monitoring requirements that they had,
the environmental monitoring requirements they had down there, the Stockton mine,
the coal mine, some of the rehabilitation efforts there. The
amount of money that the government's having to invest in
the rehabilitation and monitoring of that exceeds the royalties that
we're receiving from the mind itself, so you know that
those sorts of environmental aspects need to be improved. They're
(17:24):
also interestingly in that the Critical Mineral Strategy and Shane
Jones did and say very much about this, and one
of the points that we made was that the industry
needs to pay more attention to and actually proactively get
involved in reuse and recycling of minerals. There's a lot
of minerals that we don't need to mine if we
were to be to take much more seriously the idea
(17:46):
of reuse and reminding a recycling of minerals that currently
just find themselves on the way to waste stumps. So
those sorts of behaviors, greater transparency, and one of the
ones that I really think we need to talk about
a lot more here in turn rower is the notion
(18:07):
of a fair share of the mineral resource. So making
sure that a fair share of the value of resources
actually resides in the country. It's not a discussion that
we've actually had as part of either the Critical Minerals
or the Draft Mineral Strategy. We hear that twenty one
million dollars in royalties came to the government in twenty
(18:28):
three twenty four from the mineral sector. When you think
about the value of minerals that we also in the
same breath here are being exported, then that's really a
very very small share of the total value comes back
to the New Zealand people. So those sorts of behaviors,
I think are ones that we need to really look
quite closely at in terms of if we go forward
(18:49):
with an expansion of the mineral sector.
Speaker 1 (18:52):
Right, so, do you think that doubling mineral exports by
three billion dollars in a decade is realistic?
Speaker 3 (18:57):
Well, the price of gold went up by six percent
last year in one year, so if that trend continues,
then shange zones and the mineral sector won't have to
do anything at all to double mineral exports. It could
happen in the next three years at that kind of rate.
So that kind of figure is just to me, it's
just a complete perfect There's so much volatility in the
(19:21):
mineral prices globally, you know, the sorts of things that
he's looking at or that the sector is looking at. Vanadium,
for example, the prices bounce all around the place. So
in any one particular year you might find that mineral resources.
The value of mineral exports might well double even if
there's not a significant uptick in production from those minerals,
(19:42):
and that volatility, by the way, makes it really hard
to regulate the sector from the point of view of
the government too, So investors are much more interested in
investing in gold or any of these other minerals when
the prices are high, So regardless of what the government does,
it's going to get much more attention if the prices
(20:03):
of commodities like gold or vanadium or any of these
others start to increase quite dramatically. Vanadium, by the way,
the market consensus seems to be that prices are likely
to fall between twenty twenty six and twenty twenty seven.
So whether the market for that actually holds up, and
whether that plays into trans Tasman resources that the economics
of their operation is going to be interesting to see.
(20:24):
Are we going to double mineral exports in the next
ten years, Ask the market, have a look at what
the market's doing, and it's going to be really hard
to pick. So it's more I think a more realistic
approach to ask whether we're going to see an increase
in the actual amount of mining that happens across the country.
Given the approach that's been taken with the fast tracked legislation,
(20:45):
I think the answer to that is yes, but it's
also worth pointing out I think that the established gold mines,
and particularly the Oceanian gold ones, have a relatively limited light,
not much beyond the twenty thirty five limit. So McCrae's
flat and why he could well both be exhausted by
twenty thirty five twenty the next ten to fifteen years.
Speaker 1 (21:08):
Thanks for joining us, Glenn, no problem at all. That's
it for this episode of the Front Page. You can
read more about today's stories and extensive news coverage at
enzadherld dot co dot mz. The Front Page is produced
by Ethan Sills and Richard Martin, who is also our
(21:30):
sound engineer. I'm Chelsea Daniels. Subscribe to the Front Page
on iHeartRadio or wherever you get your podcasts, and tune
in tomorrow for another look behind the headlines.
Kyoda. I'm Chelsea Daniels and this is the Front Page,
a daily podcast presented by the New Zealand Herald. Mining
has become a key part of the government's plans for
economic growth. Resources Minister and self appointed martywa of Mining
(00:26):
Shane Jones, has unveiled a plan to double exports to
three billion dollars by twenty thirty five, alongside a list
of thirty seven strong critical minerals and a national mineral strategy.
While the plan has been met with some criticism from
environmentalists and the opposition, there has been some positive feedback
(00:47):
from academics, praising the plan for its commitment to pipeline development.
But do the numbers stack up? And how many of
those critical minerals are actually sitting beneath our feet today?
On the front page, Massy University professor of geography Glenn
Banks is with us to dig into the government's mining plans. Glenn,
(01:13):
you wrote recently that society needs mining, and mining itself
is not inherently or necessarily rapacious. Can you expand on
that for us?
Speaker 2 (01:23):
I suppose two parts.
Speaker 3 (01:24):
One is our society is built on minerals that are mined.
The mining industry has a nice little saying that goes,
if it's not growing, then it's mined, and that applies
to everything within society. So everything from the technology we're
using today to the desk you're sitting at to the
building you're in heavily reliant, totally reliant on a mining sector.
Speaker 2 (01:47):
So we need it now.
Speaker 3 (01:49):
In terms of does that mean we should give them
free license to run around and do what they like.
For a long time we kind of did, and then
really from the nineteen sixties seventies onwards, there's been increasing
regulation of the sector to try and make sure that
they don't or that they behave in a responsible way
(02:10):
in terms of their environmental impact but also their contribution
to the economy and to society generally. So that's why
you see mining companies have big corporate social responsibility programs
where they make sure that they're very visible in terms
of what they're doing in the communities that they operate in. So, yeah,
we need them, and they don't necessarily always make a
(02:32):
horrible mess. These days, it's much better. It's much better regulated,
and I think one of the things about the draft
Mineral Strategy that was released was that there was a
very nice statement in there and the introduction to it
which talks about exactly that, about we need a mining industry,
but we need one that actually behaves. A lot of
the mining sector does behave pretty well.
Speaker 1 (02:52):
With all that in mind, I guess what was your
first reaction to the government's new mining policy.
Speaker 2 (02:57):
Well, like I say, I.
Speaker 3 (02:58):
Think there's some good stuff in there, and I think
Shane Jones is he's completely right that we need a
longer term vision for what we want from the mining industry.
Speaker 2 (03:08):
For too long, it's just been hidden miss.
Speaker 3 (03:11):
You know, the miners will come and go, but we
haven't had a clear sense of the sector and the
way in which it can contribute to society generally. So
that strategic element I think is good. There's very little
in terms of detail about what that means in terms
of how the industry is going to be managed differently
now to what it was previously. Shane Jones's line that
(03:31):
you know, now we'll be able to miners will be
able to get up and operate. They were previously the
Federation gold Mine in Reefed and started up under the
previous government. It got all it's consenting under the previous
government through the regional Council and local council. So it's
not like mining was completely off the cards previously. You know,
he's trying to make a case that, ah, there was
(03:52):
no mining. You know, mining was.
Speaker 2 (03:53):
Impossible before it wasn't.
Speaker 3 (03:55):
So it's a little bit hard to see exactly how
things are going to be very different the fast The
linking of the mineral strategy with the fast track legislation
is probably the most obvious sign that we're going to
see less real detailed examination of the new mining prospects
out there, the way in which well I'm sure you
(04:18):
know and lots of the listeners would know about the
criticism of the fast track legislation, just removing some of
that oversight of the environmental impacts and certainly reducing the
amount of public consultation in the process.
Speaker 2 (04:32):
So that's that's of concern.
Speaker 3 (04:34):
If we're starting to wind back the dial in terms
of the amount of really close looking at the industry
before we allow for new minds around the place.
Speaker 1 (04:43):
Well, labor reckons that it's shortsighted, environmentally, reckless and a
giveaway to private mining interests. Are they right to have
those concerns?
Speaker 2 (04:52):
Do you think? Yeah?
Speaker 3 (04:52):
I think they absolutely are and that was one of
the things that struck me about the changes that were
made to the Criticalerals list when that came through, when
Shane Jones talked about that on Friday, including gold and
the coal on the Critical Minerals list. I mean, the
current the way in which critical minerals have been defined
(05:14):
globally in the last five years when the terms come
back into vogue, has been about minerals that support the
green transition.
Speaker 2 (05:22):
That's been the real emphasis. And to put.
Speaker 3 (05:24):
Coal on that list just seems a bit obnoxious, really,
and it completely undermines the credibility of the list in
the eyes of anyone with an interest in green transition processes.
It's really about securing the place of the existing industry
and making sure that the minerals we have are able
to be exploited by corporate interests. It's nothing to do
(05:47):
with supporting the green transition. You know that critical minerals
doing our bit for the green transition.
Speaker 2 (05:53):
That's just a cloak.
Speaker 3 (05:53):
For more coal and more gold as far as I can.
Speaker 4 (05:57):
See, right, I mean, what would be the climate impacts
of that of increasing coal extraction?
Speaker 5 (06:04):
Well, it's not there's no very little climate impact on
an extraction.
Speaker 4 (06:08):
Sure, but that's straight to to burn, right, Yeah, and.
Speaker 5 (06:11):
So when our coal goes to places like India, their
coal is high ash, ours is low ash. So it's
actually better for the environment. Obviously, people want to stop
using coal, but at the moment people are using coal.
We have coal. We have coal mines on the West
Coast where mining is about a fifth of the GDP.
Speaker 3 (06:33):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (06:33):
Shane Jones noted that of the thirty seven minerals included
on that list, we produce or have the potential to
produce twenty one here in New Zealand. Does that mean
that there are some we might be able to produce
but we don't actually know for certain what's happening with
the other sixteen.
Speaker 3 (06:51):
Well, the ones down the bottom of his list, the
other sixteen are ones that we it's been decided that
we need to try and secure supplies of them for
the ongoing functioning of our industry and manufacturing. And so
the statement's quite clear that the ones that we can't
produce in the country, the only way that we're able
to secure supply is building good relationships with the countries
(07:14):
and the companies that are involved in extraction of those minerals.
So it's about supply chain security rather than anything that
we might potentially do in the future. The critical minerals
list that we have is quite unique. We're the only
country of the major countries that have produced a list.
Speaker 2 (07:31):
Of critical minerals which have aggregate on.
Speaker 3 (07:33):
It, so quarries rock and sand for construction when that
was on the draft list. And one of the things
that struck me about that was that was actually a
fairly realistic proposition. If you look at the easily the
largest number of mining operations, if you can call them
that quarries and aggregate gravel pits that we use to
(07:54):
get the stones that we need for construction and roading
and all of those those other supplies. That's, in a sense,
that's a much more strategic interest to us. And I
thought it was quite realistic, as I say, to put
aggregate on the list of critical minerals. But what it
does is it shifts that that dial completely away from
(08:15):
this notion that the global notion the critical minerals are
the ones to support a green transition. It's more about
it's a much more a strategic list of minerals that
we need rather than a list of critical minerals. Right.
Speaker 1 (08:28):
So minerals like copper, nickel, and cobalt, they're key in
the production of many clean energy technologies, right, They're needed
to make batteries for electric vehicles and wind turn bins
and things like that. But they're also I guess used
for other more nefarious I guess purposes, weapons and things
like that. How do we strike a balance between looking
(08:49):
at things that we need to create clean energy versus
perhaps those other kind of things.
Speaker 3 (08:55):
Yeah, and that's where things become very very muddied. The
critical minerals we need for the green transition. If you
listed some of them out there, copernickel, things like lithium,
to regard it as the much more in terms of volume,
far and away the most significant ones for a green transition.
So it's things that we already produce and we already
(09:16):
use for the wide range of things across society, including
some of those what you labeled nefarious activities. So the
military sector in the US is highly dependent on massive
amounts of supply of those same minerals. So it's not
like these things that are just used solely for the
green transition, and that to say that, you know, we
(09:38):
need to do more of this for the green transition
is again it's a cloak for other forms of use
that a lot of these minerals are put towards.
Speaker 1 (09:47):
How do we strike a balance though, or do we
just have to trust companies to do the right thing.
Speaker 3 (09:52):
Yeah, and in some commodities there are we are starting
to see companies and regulators they're really looking at where
these things are coming from and conditions of extraction. So
the obvious one conflict diamonds that have been around for
a while now, where basically the ones that you're supposed
to be buying in shops are coming from areas which
(10:15):
are certified not to be involved in violent conflict of
one kind or another. So gold is another one which
they're starting to look at in terms of where it's
coming from. There's real concerns about cobalt and coal, tan
and some of those other critical minerals needed for green
energy transition coming out of places like the DRC Democratic
(10:37):
Republic of Congo, because they are coming out of conditions
of conflict, of child.
Speaker 2 (10:42):
Labor and all sorts of human rights abuses.
Speaker 3 (10:44):
So trying to find balances in terms of the extraction
where these things are coming from is a little bit
easier than trying to regulate how they are used.
Speaker 2 (10:54):
Once they hit the global markets.
Speaker 3 (10:56):
So yeah, there's a fair element of trust, but there's
also a blindness that we have to adopt to some
of these things. When you think about the size of
the military apparatus that's operating around the world that consume
such vast quantities of these minerals.
Speaker 1 (11:25):
You mentioned that many of these minerals are being mined
in poorer countries. Hey, wasn't it actually until last year
when we were talking about the New Caledonia riots on
this podcast that I actually learned that those islands are
a major source of the world's nickel, something Tesla uses
for its evs and stuff.
Speaker 4 (11:43):
Nickel is huge in New Caledonia. They have upwards of
twenty percent of global reserve. Some estimates say up to
thirty percent of global nickel reserves, and it's a very
precious metal and used in electric vehicle batteries. In fact,
a deal was struck with Tesla back in twenty twenty
one for one of the major minds there in New Caledonia.
(12:05):
So the significance of New Caledonia is not going away.
Speaker 1 (12:09):
Can we ever move to a greener society? Without utilizing
these resources or does it come hand in hand.
Speaker 3 (12:18):
Yeah, there's a fairly lengthy academic literature on the relationship
between mineral extraction and conflict, and there's a sense in
which in a lot of parts of the world, particularly
where governance isn't great, you get a vicious cycle between
increasing extraction of minerals that leads feeds into economic mismanagement, corruption, violence, conflict,
(12:43):
and all of these sorts of things. So there is
a real concern about that. Yeah, neucleodonia is interesting. There's
some really interesting stuff going on in terms of nickel
extraction these days out of Indonesia, which is completely reshaped
the nickel supply chain quite markedly. Interestingly, there's massive Chinese
investment in nickel in Indonesia in particular. So the geopolitics
(13:07):
of all of this become really interesting when you think that,
roughly on taking across all of the various elements, about
forty percent of global supply of the so called transition
minerals come out of China.
Speaker 1 (13:19):
You mentioned gold and coal on the list of thirty seven.
I understand that this is a push to perhaps introduce
new minerals to our market, be able to export different
kinds of minerals. But what do you think the chances
are of this happening and they're just being a whole
bunch more gold mines pop up.
Speaker 3 (13:39):
Well, I think one of the points that may have
been changed Jones. It may have been one of the
other commentators made was to start up a gold mine,
or to start up any kind of mining, there's actually
a fair lead time associated with it, so we're not
likely to see we might see a gold mine or.
Speaker 2 (13:54):
Two in the next few years.
Speaker 3 (13:56):
This stuff around Central Otago, for example, and certainly around
where there's some fairly advanced gold prospects, again all developed
under the previous government.
Speaker 2 (14:06):
But in terms of some of the.
Speaker 3 (14:08):
Things like vanadium and antemy might be slightly different in
the sense that it's often co produced with gold. So
the reeft and deposit that they're looking at for antimony
is co produced with gold in many instances. So there's
a possibility that if gold gets up and running relatively
quickly there, we might start to see some increased supply
(14:30):
out of the West coast. But things like vanadium, which
trans Tasman resources are suddenly discovered. Late last year was
fairly high quantities in the ironstand that they're looking at
off Taranaki, that is probably going to be a longer
term prospect. So you know, ten years from binding a
prospect to opening a opening a mine of any kind
(14:52):
is not one typical in the industry. Shane Jones clearly
wants to try and speed that process up. But whether
we actually start to see any of that, give that
the expiration for a lot of the transition minerals still
need or the critical minerals on that list still needs
to be done. So it's going to be ten years
at least before any of these potential and perspective critical
(15:15):
minerals start to come online.
Speaker 6 (15:19):
Now, I know this anoise some of the green beetles,
but they're never ever going to accept my pro industry,
pro growth agenda, and I just have to acknowledge that
their players and their stakeholders in the broader political system
and respect of mining, we are going to turbocharge mining.
(15:41):
We are going to increase our export revenue from mining,
our job prospects and mining, and it'll be done within guardrails.
But we're not going to have mining tainted and stigmatized
by false information and have it blighted high history onics
(16:02):
and that's pretty much what the Green Party and their
fellow travelers represent.
Speaker 1 (16:12):
Glenn, you and a colleague once proposed seven key behaviors
for a mining sector committed to sustainable development. What are
some of the key things these companies need to commit to.
Speaker 3 (16:24):
Well, there's a few that really stand out. The first
is that they in terms of the sorts of behaviors,
they should be aiming for absolute world best practice in
terms of environmental and social management practices. The mining industry
here might like to and you know, there are some
pretty responsible operators, but there's also some lapses from time
(16:46):
to time. So, just in the last six months, I've
been keeping track of the number of breaches of environmental
monitoring conditions that coal and gold mines around the place
have found themselves in trouble with.
Speaker 2 (16:57):
So McCrae's Blackdown and Sinfilote.
Speaker 3 (17:00):
Were found in breach of the monitoring requirements that they had,
the environmental monitoring requirements they had down there, the Stockton mine,
the coal mine, some of the rehabilitation efforts there. The
amount of money that the government's having to invest in
the rehabilitation and monitoring of that exceeds the royalties that
we're receiving from the mind itself, so you know that
those sorts of environmental aspects need to be improved. They're
(17:24):
also interestingly in that the Critical Mineral Strategy and Shane
Jones did and say very much about this, and one
of the points that we made was that the industry
needs to pay more attention to and actually proactively get
involved in reuse and recycling of minerals. There's a lot
of minerals that we don't need to mine if we
were to be to take much more seriously the idea
(17:46):
of reuse and reminding a recycling of minerals that currently
just find themselves on the way to waste stumps. So
those sorts of behaviors, greater transparency, and one of the
ones that I really think we need to talk about
a lot more here in turn rower is the notion
(18:07):
of a fair share of the mineral resource. So making
sure that a fair share of the value of resources
actually resides in the country. It's not a discussion that
we've actually had as part of either the Critical Minerals
or the Draft Mineral Strategy. We hear that twenty one
million dollars in royalties came to the government in twenty
(18:28):
three twenty four from the mineral sector. When you think
about the value of minerals that we also in the
same breath here are being exported, then that's really a
very very small share of the total value comes back
to the New Zealand people. So those sorts of behaviors,
I think are ones that we need to really look
quite closely at in terms of if we go forward
(18:49):
with an expansion of the mineral sector.
Speaker 1 (18:52):
Right, so, do you think that doubling mineral exports by
three billion dollars in a decade is realistic?
Speaker 3 (18:57):
Well, the price of gold went up by six percent
last year in one year, so if that trend continues,
then shange zones and the mineral sector won't have to
do anything at all to double mineral exports. It could
happen in the next three years at that kind of rate.
So that kind of figure is just to me, it's
just a complete perfect There's so much volatility in the
(19:21):
mineral prices globally, you know, the sorts of things that
he's looking at or that the sector is looking at. Vanadium,
for example, the prices bounce all around the place. So
in any one particular year you might find that mineral resources.
The value of mineral exports might well double even if
there's not a significant uptick in production from those minerals,
(19:42):
and that volatility, by the way, makes it really hard
to regulate the sector from the point of view of
the government too, So investors are much more interested in
investing in gold or any of these other minerals when
the prices are high, So regardless of what the government does,
it's going to get much more attention if the prices
(20:03):
of commodities like gold or vanadium or any of these
others start to increase quite dramatically. Vanadium, by the way,
the market consensus seems to be that prices are likely
to fall between twenty twenty six and twenty twenty seven.
So whether the market for that actually holds up, and
whether that plays into trans Tasman resources that the economics
of their operation is going to be interesting to see.
(20:24):
Are we going to double mineral exports in the next
ten years, Ask the market, have a look at what
the market's doing, and it's going to be really hard
to pick. So it's more I think a more realistic
approach to ask whether we're going to see an increase
in the actual amount of mining that happens across the country.
Given the approach that's been taken with the fast tracked legislation,
(20:45):
I think the answer to that is yes, but it's
also worth pointing out I think that the established gold mines,
and particularly the Oceanian gold ones, have a relatively limited light,
not much beyond the twenty thirty five limit. So McCrae's
flat and why he could well both be exhausted by
twenty thirty five twenty the next ten to fifteen years.
Speaker 1 (21:08):
Thanks for joining us, Glenn, no problem at all. That's
it for this episode of the Front Page. You can
read more about today's stories and extensive news coverage at
enzadherld dot co dot mz. The Front Page is produced
by Ethan Sills and Richard Martin, who is also our
(21:30):
sound engineer. I'm Chelsea Daniels. Subscribe to the Front Page
on iHeartRadio or wherever you get your podcasts, and tune
in tomorrow for another look behind the headlines.
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