December 14, 2024 • 5 mins
The Government is set to update the nation about the state of the books next week - with experts concerned about what this means for New Zealand's future.
The update will likely reveal whether or not the country is on track to reach surplus by the 2026/2027 forecast.
NZ Herald political reporter Jamie Ensor unpacks the speculation.
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Speaker 1 (00:06):
You're listening to the Sunday Session podcast with Francesca Rudgin
from News TALKSB.
Speaker 2 (00:13):
Time Now for Politics, and I'm joined by New Zealand
Herald political reporter Jamie Enzel.
Speaker 3 (00:17):
Good morning, Jamie, Good morning, Francesca Hiphu.
Speaker 2 (00:21):
So the government will reveal the latest state of the books.
Is this on the seventeenth?
Speaker 3 (00:26):
Yeah, it's happening on Tuesday.
Speaker 2 (00:27):
Okay, So this is the same time that the Nicola
Willis will preview budget twenty twenty five is a correct.
Speaker 3 (00:33):
Yeah, So we'll get a lot of economic data on Tuesday.
But there'll be two things that we'll be looking for now.
The first will be whether the country's forecast surplus is
pushed out another year to twenty twenty eight to twenty nine.
That would be a year later than what was projected
at the budget in May. Economists for the last few
months have been warning that some of those previous forecasts
(00:53):
may have been a little bit too optimistic. The big
wake up call coming last month when Treasury's Chief Economic
Advisor Dominic Stevens said that recent data suggested the economic
downturn had been deeper and therefore the recovery may take longer.
Than what was believed at the budget. And we've been
asking Nikola Willis, the Finance Minister, whether she will push
out that surplus. She's refused to say and pointed us
(01:16):
towards Tuesday, So we'll look and see what happens. Then.
The other piece of information and we'll be looking for
is what is called the operational allowance. This is the
level of new money the government is committing to spending
over the coming years. It's expected to be two point
four billion dollars and that's relatively small compared to recent years.
Nikola Willis would often scold former Finance Minister Grant Robertson
(01:39):
for announcing allowance and then having to increase it closer
to the budget. So we'll see what she comes up with.
Speaker 2 (01:45):
Okay, a couple of things to keep an eye out
for there on Tuesday. The manue one, Marie, Now, this
has this sort of siger seems to have been going
on for a long time. But finally we may be
getting some more information about the alleged misuse of data
at the Marai around the election.
Speaker 1 (02:03):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (02:03):
Maybe maybe we're hoping to get something back before Christmas. Now,
as you mentioned, there were allegations of misuse of data
at Manira and Mariah. During last year's election campaign, the
MRIA had some some census in COVID nineteen vaccination data
which it's alleged to have them used to help with
campaigning for the Mariah's then chief executive, Taka Tai tash Camp.
(02:24):
Now she's the departing multi candidate who went on to
win the Tammikimikodao Electric by just forty two votes. And
so there were a number of events investigations announced in
June into this, and many of them were supposed to
have already reported back by now, but there's been largely
crickets on this front. Stats in Z last month said
it was working through a natural justice process and it
(02:46):
would release its findings alongside that of the Public Service
Commission now. The Public Service Commissioner, so Brian Roche last
week said the report would be released very shortly and
said he hoped before Christmas. I understand that the Thursday,
this Thursday that's just been was tentatively put down as
a release date, but that's come and gone and we
(03:06):
are now heading into the final week of Parliament. One
person close to the investigations told me that it was
a beast of an inquiry and highly complex. So they're
just wanting to cross every tea and dot every eye
and we'll see if it is released before the end
of the year.
Speaker 2 (03:22):
Well, as I said at the top of the hour,
eighteen press releases on Friday afternoon alone, there does seem
to be a flurry of information trying to get out
before Christmas. But there is a possibility, I suppose, Damien,
I'm being a little bit skeptical here that it could
be released just before Christmas when we might not have
a huge amount of time to absorb it. Let's talk
boot camps.
Speaker 3 (03:44):
Yeah, so it feels like, I know, every couple of
days recently there's been some sort of new revelation that
one of the participants of the government's boot camp program
had either absconded or reoffended, and on Thursday, Ordering a
Tamodiki confirmed to us that a third participant was now
facing charges after allegedly reoffending. Two others were last week
(04:04):
found by police after allegedly being evolved in an attempted
carjacking in Hamilton. But it now also appears that Ordering
a Tamidiki is going to limit what it says publicly
about the status of these young men. In a statement,
it says that while I's acknowledged there was public interest
in the status of these individuals, the quote individual, additional
(04:26):
public scrutiny was having an impact on the participant. Let's
remember that these are serious young offenders, and OTI said
that for privacy and well being reasons, it would now
only provide updates at what it says are appropriate milestones
or in exceptional circumstances, but it didn't provide any actual
detail of what that actually means.
Speaker 2 (04:48):
James, is that fair? It doesn't. Yeah, I do think
that does need to be taken into consideration.
Speaker 3 (04:54):
Well, one hundred percent. These are young individuals. I believe
that all are until seventeen, so we do need to
give them some privacy. They are children after all. But
this is a super high profile policy for the governments
and it now peers are trying to put it into
the shadows a little bit and you won't be surprised
to learn it's frustrated. The opposition Labour's word gen Prime,
saying the public does need to know how these participants
(05:17):
are progressing, especially because the government's trying to make these
boot camps permanent.
Speaker 2 (05:21):
Thank you so much, Jamie Enzil, their New Zealand Herald
political reporter.
Speaker 1 (05:27):
For more from the Sunday session with Francesca Rudkin, listen
live to News Talks theb from nine am Sunday, or
follow the podcast on iHeartRadio
You're listening to the Sunday Session podcast with Francesca Rudgin
from News TALKSB.
Speaker 2 (00:13):
Time Now for Politics, and I'm joined by New Zealand
Herald political reporter Jamie Enzel.
Speaker 3 (00:17):
Good morning, Jamie, Good morning, Francesca Hiphu.
Speaker 2 (00:21):
So the government will reveal the latest state of the books.
Is this on the seventeenth?
Speaker 3 (00:26):
Yeah, it's happening on Tuesday.
Speaker 2 (00:27):
Okay, So this is the same time that the Nicola
Willis will preview budget twenty twenty five is a correct.
Speaker 3 (00:33):
Yeah, So we'll get a lot of economic data on Tuesday.
But there'll be two things that we'll be looking for now.
The first will be whether the country's forecast surplus is
pushed out another year to twenty twenty eight to twenty nine.
That would be a year later than what was projected
at the budget in May. Economists for the last few
months have been warning that some of those previous forecasts
(00:53):
may have been a little bit too optimistic. The big
wake up call coming last month when Treasury's Chief Economic
Advisor Dominic Stevens said that recent data suggested the economic
downturn had been deeper and therefore the recovery may take longer.
Than what was believed at the budget. And we've been
asking Nikola Willis, the Finance Minister, whether she will push
out that surplus. She's refused to say and pointed us
(01:16):
towards Tuesday, So we'll look and see what happens. Then.
The other piece of information and we'll be looking for
is what is called the operational allowance. This is the
level of new money the government is committing to spending
over the coming years. It's expected to be two point
four billion dollars and that's relatively small compared to recent years.
Nikola Willis would often scold former Finance Minister Grant Robertson
(01:39):
for announcing allowance and then having to increase it closer
to the budget. So we'll see what she comes up with.
Speaker 2 (01:45):
Okay, a couple of things to keep an eye out
for there on Tuesday. The manue one, Marie, Now, this
has this sort of siger seems to have been going
on for a long time. But finally we may be
getting some more information about the alleged misuse of data
at the Marai around the election.
Speaker 1 (02:03):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (02:03):
Maybe maybe we're hoping to get something back before Christmas. Now,
as you mentioned, there were allegations of misuse of data
at Manira and Mariah. During last year's election campaign, the
MRIA had some some census in COVID nineteen vaccination data
which it's alleged to have them used to help with
campaigning for the Mariah's then chief executive, Taka Tai tash Camp.
(02:24):
Now she's the departing multi candidate who went on to
win the Tammikimikodao Electric by just forty two votes. And
so there were a number of events investigations announced in
June into this, and many of them were supposed to
have already reported back by now, but there's been largely
crickets on this front. Stats in Z last month said
it was working through a natural justice process and it
(02:46):
would release its findings alongside that of the Public Service
Commission now. The Public Service Commissioner, so Brian Roche last
week said the report would be released very shortly and
said he hoped before Christmas. I understand that the Thursday,
this Thursday that's just been was tentatively put down as
a release date, but that's come and gone and we
(03:06):
are now heading into the final week of Parliament. One
person close to the investigations told me that it was
a beast of an inquiry and highly complex. So they're
just wanting to cross every tea and dot every eye
and we'll see if it is released before the end
of the year.
Speaker 2 (03:22):
Well, as I said at the top of the hour,
eighteen press releases on Friday afternoon alone, there does seem
to be a flurry of information trying to get out
before Christmas. But there is a possibility, I suppose, Damien,
I'm being a little bit skeptical here that it could
be released just before Christmas when we might not have
a huge amount of time to absorb it. Let's talk
boot camps.
Speaker 3 (03:44):
Yeah, so it feels like, I know, every couple of
days recently there's been some sort of new revelation that
one of the participants of the government's boot camp program
had either absconded or reoffended, and on Thursday, Ordering a
Tamodiki confirmed to us that a third participant was now
facing charges after allegedly reoffending. Two others were last week
(04:04):
found by police after allegedly being evolved in an attempted
carjacking in Hamilton. But it now also appears that Ordering
a Tamidiki is going to limit what it says publicly
about the status of these young men. In a statement,
it says that while I's acknowledged there was public interest
in the status of these individuals, the quote individual, additional
(04:26):
public scrutiny was having an impact on the participant. Let's
remember that these are serious young offenders, and OTI said
that for privacy and well being reasons, it would now
only provide updates at what it says are appropriate milestones
or in exceptional circumstances, but it didn't provide any actual
detail of what that actually means.
Speaker 2 (04:48):
James, is that fair? It doesn't. Yeah, I do think
that does need to be taken into consideration.
Speaker 3 (04:54):
Well, one hundred percent. These are young individuals. I believe
that all are until seventeen, so we do need to
give them some privacy. They are children after all. But
this is a super high profile policy for the governments
and it now peers are trying to put it into
the shadows a little bit and you won't be surprised
to learn it's frustrated. The opposition Labour's word gen Prime,
saying the public does need to know how these participants
(05:17):
are progressing, especially because the government's trying to make these
boot camps permanent.
Speaker 2 (05:21):
Thank you so much, Jamie Enzil, their New Zealand Herald
political reporter.
Speaker 1 (05:27):
For more from the Sunday session with Francesca Rudkin, listen
live to News Talks theb from nine am Sunday, or
follow the podcast on iHeartRadio
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