Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:06):
You're listening to the Sunday Session podcast with Francesca Rudgin
from News Talks EDB.
Speaker 2 (00:12):
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has wrapped his trip of China.
He's now in Belgium ahead of the NATO summit in
the Hagues Stanning on Tuesday to discuss as Professor of
International Relations Robert Petman is with me. Always appreciate your time, Robert,
Good morning.
Speaker 3 (00:26):
Good morning, Francisco.
Speaker 2 (00:27):
From what you have seen, is this China trip being
a success for Luxon? Has it gone how you would
have expected?
Speaker 3 (00:34):
Well, judging by all the public sentiments on both sides,
I think it's been a success. The President Shi Jinping
described New Zealand as being at the forefront of Western
friends of China, and the atmospheric seem to be good.
The two sides signed eleven agreements, including agreements in food safety,
(00:57):
customs and also tourism and also I think it gave
mister Luxen a chance to plug New Zealand as an
educational destination for postgraduate Chinese students who may be considering
changing switching from the United States the original destination to
somewhere else because it's becoming increasingly difficult for international students
(01:19):
to go to the United States during the Trump.
Speaker 2 (01:21):
Era, So you know a lot of positive texts there
for Laxon in China, but China has quite a negative
view of NATO. Does that make it awkward that he's
hitting straight from China to Europe for NATO?
Speaker 3 (01:32):
No, I don't think so. I mean, I think it
just confirms the fact that while United while New Zealand
considers itself a good friend of China, and I think
the feeling is mutual. They have different political ideologies. China's
one party state and this is a liberal democracy, and
of course it's quite natural or when it comes to
(01:54):
making security arrangements, New Zealand tends to link up with
fellow liberal democracies and hence the common Cause or the
common links with a anti lateral security organization which largely
consists of liberal democracies like NATA.
Speaker 2 (02:12):
Luxan dismissed recent comments by the NATO chief that China
has grouped with Russia and Iran and Northern Korea. Will
anyone be listening to Luxen? How's that going to go
down at the Hague.
Speaker 3 (02:24):
I don't think we should underestimate there is a tendency
in this country for us to think that no one
takes any notice of us. In fact, because the interconnected
world we live in, they notice good things. But they
also noticed when we drop the ball. I'm not saying
mister Luxan dropped the ball, but his comments could raise
some eyebrows, certainly in NATO, because it's no secret I
(02:49):
know what he means. He's saying that the four countries concerned,
which are a number of countries which are helping Russia,
including North Korea, Iran and Russia. They're not acting as
a sort of formal coalition of the winning, but they
are all helping Russia on a bilateral basis, and therefore
they are helping Russia that they're helping to support an
(03:13):
illegal invasion of a liberal democracy named me Ukraine. So
those countries are clearly looking at working against Western interests,
and mister Luxeon's denial that they're doing that on a
concerted basis, I think you know it's splitting hairs.
Speaker 2 (03:29):
Really, there have been some suggestions Luxeon's lack of geopolitical
experience could be showing. Are you worried about that? I
think he generally performs pretty well.
Speaker 3 (03:38):
When to be fair, look, this be quite clear all
prime ministers have exhausting schedules, and it's easy to say
things which can be put in a particular interpreted in
a particular way. I don't think it was a huge deal.
He didn't say those countries were not helping Russia on
(03:58):
a bilateral basis. He just meant that they weren't helping
as part of a formal multilateral alliance. All these authoritaries
in states piling in between behind Russia. So I understand
the distinction. I just think that it's will it will
be seen as a fine distinction rather than a big distinction.
And it's a sort of comment you sometimes might make
(04:20):
when you're a little bit tired. Look, mister Luxan, I
think what you know. While might question though that particular statement,
you've got to give him credit for he has a
good relationship with the Chinese leadership and he seems to
do well in people to people talks, and I wouldn't see,
you know, I don't think it's a major commm.
Speaker 2 (04:40):
Why are we at this NATO so much?
Speaker 3 (04:42):
Like?
Speaker 2 (04:43):
How much excess will our prime minister get? Is he
getting into all the right meetings? What are we doing there?
Speaker 3 (04:49):
Well? The reason is quite simple, there's a strategic linkage
or a linkage between our strategic interest in the Pacific
and what is happening in Ukraine. And it's the linkage
occurs at two levels. Firstly, one of the biggest backers
of the Russian in invasion of Ukraine is China and
(05:10):
as well as India actually, and both of those countries
are heavyweights in the Indo Pacific region where we're located.
So the outcome of the conflict in Ukraine will have
critical reverberations for our Indo Pacific region. We're very worried,
for example, about Chinese growing assertiveness around the Pacific island nations. Well,
(05:34):
that assertiveness may be emboldened if mister Putin succeeds in
his attempt to annex either partially or wholy Ukraine. It
may mean, for example, that China steps up pressure and Taiwan.
That's one level of connection. But there's another level of connection,
and it's this New Zealand is a small country, and
(05:54):
we have a vision of international relations being based on
rules and principles. With small countries need rules and principles.
Big ones tend to be semi detached about them. But
if Russia succeeds in a settlement or a military victory
in Ukraine, it will basically normalize the principle that stealing
(06:16):
land from a neighbor a big country stealing land from
a smaller country is fine. Well, that is a red
lightning issue for New Zealand globally, because we trade with
one hundred countries around the world. We need a stable
environment where big countries are discouraged from stealing land from
smaller countries. In other words, what's happening in Ukraine, the
Russian attempt to subdue Ukraine has global ramifications for the
(06:37):
sort of world New Zealand wants to live in.
Speaker 2 (06:40):
I mean, it's very timely that this NATO summit has
taken place right now, and with the conflicts that we
have going on and the new ones which are just created,
I imagine that this is going to be a large
part of discussions.
Speaker 3 (06:52):
Yes, and although it's got to be emphasized that mister
tending NATO summit is only part of mister Luxeon's menu
of activities. While he is in Europe, he's also having
talks with the EU leaders Russels, so he'll be in
the Hague for the summit, but he will also be
speaking with EU leaders. This is a very important news
(07:14):
meeting for New zum. We have a free trade agreement
with the EU, which is actually going very well. I
noticed that exports the EU have gone up by about
a billion since we've signed that free trade agreement. And
there'll be discussions with EU leaders I think. I know
mister Luxan has spoken to many of them by phone,
(07:35):
but there'll be discussions about how to protect the notion
of free trade while we have this protectionist administration.
Speaker 2 (07:44):
In Washington, there is talk of increases in defense been
in to five percent. We've only just gone to two percent.
Do you think it could be pressure put on New
Zealand here?
Speaker 3 (07:53):
I don't think so. New Zine's not a full member
of NATO, it's an associate member, so to speak. It's
got an informal partnership. I think it's just as well
we put up our before two percent before we're attended
and this week and say we're going in the right direction.
That commitment to five percent is an attempt I think
(08:15):
to win favor in Washington. It's interesting that the United
States is not, although it's insisting all NATO members spend
five percent itself is not spending five percent of GDP,
but of course they have a much bigger GDP than
anyone else. They're spending about three point five percent. Military
expenditure alone, by the way, is not necessarily an accurate
(08:38):
indicator of a military effectiveness. You could be spending a
lot of money but not actually ending a good return
on your investment. So I suppose the government will argue
that it hopes to get a very good return on
the two percent that it proposes to spend over the
next few years.
Speaker 2 (08:53):
Robert, thanks so much for your time this morning. As always,
really appreciate your thoughts and clearly a very big weaklyhead
for our prime minister.
Speaker 1 (09:01):
For more from the Sunday session with Francesca Rudgin, listen
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