All Episodes

June 29, 2024 171 mins

All of this week's episodes of It Could Happen Here put together in one large file.

You can now listen to all Cool Zone Media shows, 100% ad-free through the Cooler Zone Media subscription, available exclusively on Apple Podcasts. So, open your Apple Podcasts app, search for “Cooler Zone Media” and subscribe today! 

See for privacy information.

Mark as Played

Episode Transcript

Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
A zone media.

Speaker 2 (00:03):
Hey everybody, Robert Evans here and I wanted to let
you know this is a compilation episode. So every episode
of the week that just happened is here in one
convenient and with somewhat less ads package for you to
listen to in a long stretch if you want. If
you've been listening to the episodes every day this week,
there's got to be nothing new here for you, but
you can make your own decisions.

Speaker 3 (00:26):
Welcome to could happen here. I'm Andre Si Jeffy channel ANDRASM.

Speaker 4 (00:32):
So today.

Speaker 3 (00:34):
I wanted to really draw attention to the strategies of
resistance that have marked the stories of the African diaspora.
Of course, the diasporas is widespread on diverse, and you
could find oscotad hundreds of millions in communities across the globe,
largely to see impact of the trans Saharan, Transatlantic and
Indian Ushan slave trees as well as voluntary migration. Many

millions of stories could be told, but very few of
those stories have been told so far. My focus is
really on the African diaspora in the Caribbean today and
what strategies they used in their struggle and how those
strategies could potentially be utilized today in our contemporary struggle.
So for some context, in case you know you just

arrived on Earth a couple couple of years ago, enslaved
Africans suffered truly deplorable conditions from the moment of capture,
through the passage and the season in process, and to
the last of their days on the field of the plantation.
Yet in spite of the deplorable conditions enslaved people endured,
resistance endured. It was both inevitable and constant, as even

their enslavers recognized. Resistance, of course, began in Africa itself.
Enslaved people often fled to escape local captors who were
seeking to profit from the demand for slaves. Entire villages
would sometimes relocate to fortify their settlements to avoid capture.
Veellion was common among captives as they weighted to board

ships during the initial loading and even on the high seas. Tragically,
perhaps bravely, some choose to resist by taking their own lives,
either during the journey or during the brutal season in
process upon their arrival in the Caribbean on the plantation itself.
Resistance took many forms, tailored to specific circumstances and opportunities,

but acts of defiance were a constant throughout the history
of slavery in the Caribbean.

Speaker 4 (02:29):
While not all forms.

Speaker 3 (02:30):
Of resistance were as overt as the famous revolutions and rebellions,
each act played a role in shaping plantation society, undermining
the institution of chattel slavery, and ultimately hastening its demise.
We can classify these acts of resistance into three key categories,
non cooperation, confrontation, and prefiguration. Non Cooperation involves the deliberate

refusal to comply with those in power, using both overt
and COVID methods to protest against oppressive conditions. Confrontation is
about direct and assertive engagement with oppressive forces, aiming to
disrupt or undermine them. And prefiguration refuses a deliberate organization
of future social relations, institutions, and practices in the present,

envisioning and enacting a better future. It's important to note
that these categories, of course, often overlap into dynamics struggle
against slavery, non cooperation, confrontation, prefiguration intertwined, embodying.

Speaker 4 (03:32):
The seeds of revolution throughout history.

Speaker 3 (03:35):
In fact, Wherever people are faced depressure, these forms of
resistance have emerged.

Speaker 4 (03:41):
The era of slavery in the Caribbean was no exception.
Acts of non cooperation.

Speaker 3 (03:46):
Were perhaps the most common form of resistance on the plantation.
Non cooperation to many forms, often subtle yet impactful. Enslaved
individuals would act carelessly, feign illness or pretend ignorance. These
tactics slowed productivity and provided plausible explanations for accidents by
sabotage and tools machinery. They further disrupted the operations of

the plantation. Arson was another method used to strike back
against their pressors, causing significant damage to property and resources.

Speaker 4 (04:19):
Secure in extra meat through.

Speaker 3 (04:20):
Covid animal slaughter was a way for the enslaved to
supplement their meager rations and exit a small measure of
control over their own survival. And of course, running away
was another powerful form of non cooperation. Individuals and small
groups would escape for various reasons, to find psychological relief
from the relentless oppression, to reunite with loved ones, to

protest their harsh material conditions, or to carve out an
alternative way of life within the oppressive system. These escapes
were not just about physical freedom. They were acts of defiance.
They challenged the fundations of the plantation system. Modern day
activists and workers often engage in so forms of non
cooperation to challenge capitalist structures and state authority. Just as

in slave people would intentionally slow down or damage tools
to reduce productivity, modern workers might engage in slow downs,
work to rule actions, or even deliberate sabotage, which also
falls into the next category of action. These actions aim
to disrupt efficiency and profitability of capitalist enterprises, often as
a form of protest against unfair labor practices or to

demand better working conditions. Pretended ignorance was, as I mentioned,
a common tactic among enslave people to avoid the harsh
demands of plantation labor. We might look at the quiet
quittin folks who do the bare minimum required for their job,
refusing to go above and beyond in order to avoid
burnout and to resist the expectations that seek to exploit them.

Running away from plantations despite these fair consequences was a
powerful form of non cooperation that of course sought to
reclaim autonomy in modern times, though not equal valent strikes
and walkouts silver similar purpose. Workers leave their positions to
protest unfair conditions, risk and financial stability to demand systemic change.

In the Plantation era, acts of confrontation involved direct assaults
on the system itself. Like I said before, the plant
has lived in constant fear of revolt, and this fear
was especially heightened during the Christmas season. What seemed like
benign dances and festivities often disguised rebel oaths of secrecy.
Poisoning was another faired form of confrontation, a subtle yet

deadly alternative to open rebellion. The mere threat of conspiracies
and plots, whether real or imagined, kept the colonial regime
perpetually on edge. Colonial legal systems were primarily designed to
manage colonial property, which included enslaved people. These laws were
harsh and allowed for severe punishments for any perceived transgressions.

Enslaved individuals could face proof consequences for unauthorized movement, large gatherings,
possessions of weapons, or practicing secret rituals. Master The art
of subterfuge was thus crucial for survival. What does that
tell us about navigating our current legal context? While planters

tried to soy scored among the enslaved by facilitating ethnic
division by separating African born from Korean born, from dividing
domestic and field laborers as put in skilled and unskilled workers,
they stay people too about manipulated plantation politics. They carefully
studied the personalities of their wide overlords, subtly provoking divisions

between bookkeepers, overseers, and owners. A Nanci the Spider Trickster,
a popular West African folk tale character, became a hero,
inspiring strategies of disguised satire, trickery, and deceit. Yet despite
their cunning, many rebellions were quashed before they could even begin,
and those that did spark were often brutally suppressed. The

divisions fostered by the planter class between Creole and African
and slaved people hindered revolutionary efforts. While all revolts sought
greater power and freedom, Africans typically desired all out war
and the establishment of an African lifestyle apart from the colonies.
In contrast, many Creoles the Caribbean born Africans aimed to
modify the system to gain the rights of free wage laborers.

Such conflicts helped foil revolts in barbaeos in sixty, maybe
three Anti Guns seventeen thirty six, Saint quix In seventeen
fifty nine, and Jamaican in seventeen seventy six. What does
that tell us about the risk of unresolved divisions when
undertaken revolutionary action today. In the past, enslaved people used
secret meetings and COVID planning to organize revolts, often disguised

as social gatherings. Today activists can use in encrypto communication
or parties as staging grounds of political activism. Today, poisoning
maybe off the table, but its evident that property destruction,
including our sun, has persisted as a means of protest.
The efficacy of that method protest is perhaps situationally dependent,

but it certainly sends a message. Activists of today must
confront legal systems, just as since slave people in the
past needed to when descent is shaped against the statuscope.
There's a time and place for court battles and bail funds,
but they are not lasting means of resistance. We do
need to brainstorm more permanent means of liberation from this

legal system. Finally, just as a NANSI, this FIA trixter
issued as a symbol of clever resistance among the enslaved.
We need stories and symbols that can just as potently
in power. There's a time when Guy Fowk's masks served
as a powerful symbol of resistance. As a creative species
are symbolic, species will always need those signals to guide

and encourage us, to give us safety in numbers, in
a sense of solidarity, even if such symbols alone are
not inherently liberatory. Finally, acts of prefiguration may seem less
viable under their grim conditions. But even if they could
not build the socio economic autonomy that characterizes robust modern
prefigurative practices, enslaved people still managed to create networks of

support and resilient cultures that offered respite in a world
that sought to strip them of their humanity. Mutual aid
was truly the name of the game in the face
of social death. They cultivated ties of real and fictive kinship.
Since biological families were often torn apart by callous slaveholders,
with mother child units being the most common familiar arrangement,

many and slaved Africans extended their concept of family beyond
biological kin These networks of fictive kinship provided emotional support, protection,
and a sense of belonging, helping to preserve their humanity
in the midst of suffering. An example of this resilience
can be seen in the rotating savings and credit associations
that developed among enslaved women. Despite their marginal earnings from

market activities, they pool their resources and rotated lump sums
of money to each other in acts of mutual aid,
all without their master's permission. This practice not only provided
financial support, but also reinforce the bonds.

Speaker 4 (11:15):
Of community and cooperation.

Speaker 3 (11:18):
Similarly, today's marginalized communities create networks of solidarity, mutual aid groups,
and community centers to support each other in the face
of systemic injustices such as poverty, discrimination, and violence. Such
communities also often redefine family to include chosen families provide
any emotional support and care outside traditional family structures, particularly

within LGBTQ plus communities and other marginalized groups. Today, grassroots
organizations and cooperatives continue the tradition of economic cooperation, impowerant
marginalized groups to economic solidarity, microfinance initiatives, and community based lending.
It's important that we don't look at these in isolation.

Confrontation alone is not enough, non cooperation alone is not enough,
and of course prefiguration alone.

Speaker 4 (12:08):
Is not enough.

Speaker 3 (12:19):
So let's look back at diasphoric history to those who
did bring those actions together, sometimes successfully maroonage the active
and slave people escaping plantations to establish independent communities, to
find the Maroon experience deep within forests and nestled in mountains.
Across the Caribbean, thousands of Maroons forged their own path

shape in history through resilience and defiance. As runaways, they
were inherently non cooperative. As warriors, they directly confronted plantation society,
and as community builders they aim to prefigure a better
future for themselves and their descendants. Maroon societies varied widely,
shaped by local geography, available resources, and their relationship with

colonial powers. They thrived in rainforests and mountainous terrains, which
offered natural defenses and facilitated guerrilla warfare tactics Led by
captains charged with defense, Maroon settlements prioritized vigilance, fortification, and
constant readiness. They communicated with neighboring communities, practiced evasive maneuvers,

and engaged in both defensive and offensive strategies. Prior to
the Haitian Revolution, Francois Macandial and his network of enslaved
and Maroon allies struck fear into the heart of Saintomique.
They targeted plantation owners with acts of sabotage and arson,
challenging colonial authority with daring raids and strategic strikes. Beyond warfare,

Maroon communities were self sufficient, producing or acquiring what they
needed through raids, trade, or cultivation. The trader with pirates, merchants,
and other Maroon settlements across islands, while hunting, fishing, and
farming for sustenance. Yet their precarious existence often necessitated careful
population management. Some communities struggled with maintaining numbers, while others

cautiously accepted new recruits, balancing growth with the risk of
attracting clonial attention.

Speaker 4 (14:21):
It is unfortunately not all good.

Speaker 3 (14:23):
In the history, though, despite Faerce resistance, some Marone communities
opted for peace treaties with colonial powers, ensuring their survival
over generations. However, these treaties often came at a high cost,
seeding autonomy in exchange relative peace and limited rights under
colonial rule. The seventeen three to nine Treaty in Jamaica,

for instance, imposed British control over the Maroons, restricting their
land rights and obligating them to capture and return their
fellow escaped slaves. While many Maroon communities ultimately succumbed to
colonial pressure or were unable to remain hidden, some notably
in Jamaican Surnam inture to this day, regardless of their fate,

all Maroon communities defied the clonial order, asserting the independence
and capability even slaved Africans to conceive and pursue freedom.
What lessons can we take from their struggle? How can
we apply their strategy in our resistance today? The struggle
of the Maroons offers us some useful lessons, in my opinion,
when they succeeded, it was through strong community ties and solidarity.

They built networks of support and cooperation that were crucial
for survival. Today, we need to be fostering unity among
diverse groups facing systemic oppressure. Building alliances across different communities
strengthens our collective power and our resilience against common adversaries.
Another lesson we can glean is that the Maroons adapt
to their strategies to the local terrain and resources available. Similarly,

modern resistance movements can benefit from strategic adaptation to current
socio political landscapes. This includes utilizing technology for communication an
organization understand the media and digital as well as the
physical landscape, as well as adapt in tactics to fit
specific context, because not every tactic is going to make
sense in every situation, and we can't be going through

the emotions. Also, as the Maroon communities sort of establish
self sufficiency as much as possible in their struggle, they
cannot adequately resist if they were still fully or mostly
dependent on the beasts they were fighting. They needed to
be producing their own food, goods and resources. Otherwise any
all our confrontation would be suicidally premature. We as movements,

need to prioritize building sustainable practices and self reliant economies
to reduce our alliance and oppressive systems. We cannot confront
these systems if we are still dependent on them. We
will not succeed. If so, the Maroons were also flexible.
They shifted between defensive and offensive strategies as their circumstances demanded.

Movements can benefit from maintaining that kind of flexibility in tactics.
We cannot be all offensive, we cannot be all defensive.
We must strike a balance. Finally, though this is projection
on my part, I believe some of the Maroons would
have had long term vision despite their immediate challenges. I
believe they maintained a long term vision of freedom and

autonomy that sustain their resistance over generations. Contemporary movements can
benefit from a similar long term perspective, recognizing that meaningful
change often requires sustained effort and commitment across time. That's
all I have for today, All power to all the people.
You can follow me on YouTube at androism and on

patreon dot com slash Same Truth.

Speaker 4 (17:46):

Speaker 5 (18:01):
Hi everyone, it's me James and I am joined today
by Kirsty Zitlau, who is a border water drop volunteer
I've turn some water rops together, and also an immigration writer.
And we're going to talk about ice transferring people in
their detention and generally the sort of post a rival
process that migrants asylum seeker specifically faced when they come
to the United States. Welcome to the.

Speaker 6 (18:21):
Show, Thank you, thanks for having me, Thanks for being here.

Speaker 5 (18:25):
So I think to start out with people when I
speak to them like in my day to day life,
are very unaware of the situations that migrants face when
it comes to obtaining legal representation. Right, So maybe we
could start off by just explaining that this isn't like
if you're accused of a crime rate in theory it's
a civil proceeding, but also they'll lock you up, but
you don't get a public defender assigned to you. Right,

So can you explain someone Let's say someone comes through
the hole in the fence in Kumbo, right, they get
detained at the o EDS, We give them a peanut
butter and jelly sandwich, and then they get taken out processed.
What happens after that? So from when they come to three,
what said in terms of their legal representation? How does
it work?

Speaker 6 (19:05):
Yes, so I'll address the street release folks as well
as the people who are then taken to ice the attention. Yes, yeah,
so I'll start with the street release folks. So they well, first,
anybody who irregularly enters the United States not at a
port of entry is subject to detention, not just by
border patrol, but by ICE. The fortunate situation, I mean, sorry,

the lining, the silver lining of this, you know, entire
awful situation is that there's so many people coming that
there's not enough detention space to detain everybody, and so
hence the street releases. So the people can then go
directly to their family. They will go with a notice
to a peer which starts their immigration court proceedings, which
was issued by Border Patrol. So immediately they have to

navigate the immigration court system, starting with the fact that
the notice to a peer might have a false date
on it as far as their court date. So that's
the first it's the first issue.

Speaker 5 (20:00):
What does that mean when you say a false date,
Like if they share up on that date, the hearing
won't be happening.

Speaker 6 (20:04):
So there's been a trend over the years to put
to be decided as a hearing date on their notice
to appear, which is the first document that says, hey,
you're now we can put in immigration court proceedings. We'll
send you a later notice to your address that you
gave us of when you're actually going to have that hearing,
or rather the court will. So the immigration lawyer bar
pushed real hard on this issue and said, no, this

is BS. You need to put a date in time.
The reason they weren't is because they didn't want to
take the time to coordinate with the courts to make
sure that there's actually a judge on that date and
time that they assign, so to satisfy the legal requirements
that we've pushed for, they often will just put a
fake date and time, So, in other words, they haven't
done anything to verify whether there's actually a judge sitting

at some court that day or time to hear their case.

Speaker 5 (20:47):
Yeah, they're just making it up.

Speaker 7 (20:48):
So this is exactly so.

Speaker 6 (20:49):
This is of course incredibly confusing and very dangerous because
they basically need an attorney immediately to explain this concept
to them, because they first of all won't know how
to look for when their actual court date is, which
is a link that I don't think Border Patrol ever
gives them. And then if they miss their actual court
date then they will of course be ordered deported and

the you know, then ICE is after them, and really
they have no other options at that point. So really
the need for an attorney arises immediately. And often immigrants
have been robbed, they've paid all their money to transnational
immigration to criminal organizations, excuse me, so, and an asylum
case is costly, so they have a right to an attorney,

as you said, but only at their own expense. So
this is a tremendous challenge off the bat, as you
can imagine.

Speaker 5 (21:39):
Yeah, and then just to further sort of go down
that pathway, the attorney is paid for their own expense,
but without an attorney they may not be able to
obtain a work permit.

Speaker 6 (21:48):
Right, So one hundred percent, I mean navigating the process
on your own is as an immigrant, it just seems
basically impossible to me. I mean, there's there's so much
that even US as attorneys struggle with that it is,
and it's evolving all the time. So even if you
managed to submit your asylum application by yourself the process

and then later submitting the work permit form and knowing
where to send it and how to navigate uscis that's
I mean, like I said, it's difficult for us. I mean,
let's just say I got a work permit with somebody
else's photo on it the other day, so you know,
so it's a total mess. And to have an immigrant
and even navigate that process is it just seems impossible.

Speaker 4 (22:29):

Speaker 5 (22:30):
Yeah, I mean I've no, I have not applied for asylum,
but when I renewed my green card that myself and
English is my first language. I have a PhD. I'm
used to paperwork, and it was both scary and complicated,
and exactly your whole future is resting on it. It's
extremely anxiety.

Speaker 6 (22:46):
By design too. I mean it's it's they haven't updated
forms to become a resident since I mean, like the
thirties or something, right, asked about it exactly exactly, and
it's all just to make it a difficult as possible
in the wait times and everything else.

Speaker 5 (23:02):
Yeah, So how about the folks who go into ICE detention?

Speaker 8 (23:06):

Speaker 6 (23:06):
So these are typically people, well, I mean that's just
the thing. These days, there aren't the typical people who
go into ICE attention. It's kind of it seems to
me that certainly there's people who are mandatory detention, where
if they have a prior deportation order or criminal or
immigration history in this country, they will probably be detained.

But I've also noticed a lot of racial profiling in
the detention. I have a few black clients right now
in detention, and if they were white, I'm absolutely convinced
they are not even white but Latino, they would have
been released already. And one of them is a black
Muslim man from Kenya and he's been called a suspected
terrorist by ICE for six months or more that he's

been into detention with zero proof whatsoever, and so they'll
just hold them for that reason because he's a black
Muslim man. So these are often people with very meritorious cases,
like for example, this man was an opposition party leader
and recruiter back in Kenya. So these people just need
I mean, whether they win or not win their case

or not, can hinge on just being able to get representation,
you know, because he's very intelligent and probably would have
been able to put together a good case on his behalf.
But the stats about people winning cases detained without attorneys
is very very low. So yeah, so then they have
to work with a family member on the outside obviously
to get a hold of an attorney. Not a lot

of attorneys or all attorneys do detained work because it
is so difficult to start with, I mean, access to
your client is just so limited, and getting evidence, I mean,
they have to have a reliable family and support network
on the outside essentially to help them get evidence from
their home country. I mean, how else do you do that?
Detained and so it's a lot of work coordinating as
an attorney and so forth. So San Diego County saw

that need and actually started a great program. I'm not
exactly sure when it's starts arted, but apparently they weren't
getting enough applicants and maybe it's been around for a
little bit, but they didn't know about it. And it's
they set aside like five million dollars to specifically pay
attorneys to represent people detained an O time ASIE, which
is of course the big ice attention center in San Diego.

So that caused there to be more attorneys, you know,
or more or slightly more represented people at O time ASIE,
which was great. Yeah, because typically when I go in there,
you know, this is just anecdotal evidence, you'll see a
handful of attorneys, maybe a couple, maybe at most like five,
and then you see all the detainees the immigrants sitting there,
and there's clearly more than there are attorneys. So you know,

I read a stat by the ALU that it's like
something like seventy percent as of twenty twenty one did
not have attorneys and detention centers.

Speaker 5 (25:45):
Right, so they just won't be represented throughout that process exactly,
and certainly like God forbid, you're a Muslim, Yeah, if
you're a black Muslim man, you're like at the intersection
of things that are going to have us sent.

Speaker 7 (25:55):
Straight to jail exactly.

Speaker 5 (25:57):
Just to briefly explain for people who have when we
talk about ICE detention, what are we talking about, Like,
what are the conditions and who is often operating these detention.

Speaker 6 (26:07):
Centers excellent points. So these are for profit detention centers.
So it is operated by ICE in conjunction with two
large companies called Corcivic or Geogroup. And if you're not
familiar with these companies, google them and you will immediately
be horrified. Yeah, so it's a horrifying state of affairs. Essentially.

One of the biggest things in one can google this
right now is the wrongful death suits and payouts. So
literally the business model is to allow people to die
detained as a cost of business rather than give them
proper medical care or take them to the hospital and
so forth. And they will pay out and they do
pay out millions to families. And I've seen this in action,

not that any of my clients died, but just the
the gravity to which the health situation has to be
in order to have a prayer of getting them out.

Speaker 5 (27:04):
Yeah, it's it's very sad. Like I think one thing
that I come back to now, like four years issue
into a Biden administration is that like on one of
his first decutive orders was he's going to end for
profit prisons, and he never did shit about the ice detention,
Like right from the outset there was like, these people
do not have the same right to the people, and

we don't care about them as.

Speaker 6 (27:26):
Much, exactly exactly, and at this part well and at
this point too, it's like, given that he's done a
one eighty on anything that was pro immigrant or that
he said he was going to do at the beginning,
you kind of start to wonder, is he just being
paid off by the same people, by a geogroup or
cor civic you know they they contribute millions of dollars
to whoever is running for president for good reason. So

it makes you wonder from that aspect as well.

Speaker 5 (27:50):
Yeah, like it certainly it was in his immigration reform
built right between increase the amount of ice detention facility beds,
us cells or whatever, how do you want to put that.
Hopefully this advert that we're about to pivot to here
is not for cour Civic Audio Group, but if it is,
fuck them.

Speaker 6 (28:06):

Speaker 5 (28:17):
All right, we are back and we're going to talk
about this process advice relocating detainees. So this is something
that you've actually you've done interview about recently, right A
Pece written about it.

Speaker 6 (28:28):
Yes, Yes, I did two interviews about it, just because
it's an issue very close to my heart. For several reasons.
Detained work is very very difficult, and just the fact
that few attorneys do it. I mean more have now
in light of the County program. But still it's very
emotionally draining too. You see, you literally see the decline

of the person in front of your eyes, both mentally
and physically, and it's just it takes a lot out
of you. So these people need and deserve our presentation,
and like I said, are often detained unjustly and have
strong cases that they could actually win. So basically these
people deserve representation and need it the most. I mean,

they're basically the most marginalized out of any immigrant there is.
So for ICE to suddenly start transferring mass transferring, I
might add, represented detainees when they never have in the
past and they haven't their own memo from twenty twelve
that says they shouldn't do this except for exigent circumstances,

you know, like some and they describe it as some
medical issue or something severe that requires it. It's just
it's pretty obvious that this is just direct retaliation or
just designed to get attorneys out of O Tai, because
there's been more of them in there. And we tend
to make a stink and we tend to we tend

to ask, hey, why haven't you given a decision on
my client's requests to be really east and what's going
on here? And we tend to send a lot of
emails advocating for our clients, and we tend to be
pains in the asses. And before this happened, I noticed
that ICE was just not responding at all, whereas I
had some relationship with the ICE agents that are at

the detention center. Just to back up, every client is
assigned to a deportation officer, so you technically have somebody
from ICE to communicate with, and they're supposed to be
in charge of the person detained, you know, whether they're
released or whether the treatment like any they're their point
of contact. And so even under the Trump years, you'd
be able to Yeah, you might have to follow up,
but you'd be able to communicate with a couple of

them or some of them would do you know. And
so I noticed in the past year or two that
this is has just been kind of this scorched earth
approach where they just won't.

Speaker 7 (30:46):
Get back to you or yeah.

Speaker 6 (30:49):
And they're also not responding to requests to have people
released for just months and months and months despite attorneys asking.
And so it doesn't surprise me the timing of this
and that they would do this now that I'm reflecting
back on this, as well as the county program. There's

more attorneys at O Tai Mesa now and so I
mean essentially what happens is if the person is transferred,
which they've all been transferred to places like I think
Colorado is probably the best option, but generally like Louisiana, Mississippi,
things like that. Texas is where my clients are currently.
So these are places where you can imagine there's a
not a lot of quality immigration attorneys and b not

a high chance of winning your case given the nature
of the judges that are there.

Speaker 5 (31:36):
Yeah, sod migrants articulate to me that they would not
want to be in the fifth circuit exactly. Come here
in the ninth circuit exactly. They're getting sent right back
to the fifth circuit there exactly.

Speaker 6 (31:49):
And that's where my clients are now. And one judge
from Otai decided, who scolded me for suggesting that this
was even by design. He told me to act more professional.
He didn't say anything to the DA just attorney about
what his client was doing. It told me to act
more professional, changed venue for that client. I was talking
about the Kenyan client, and so we're now in El Paso,
and thank god he has a strong case. But even then,

I wonder, because that's it's I mean, if it's well
known amongst migrants, you can imagine how badissy.

Speaker 5 (32:18):
If it's someone who knows nothing of the US.

Speaker 6 (32:22):
Yes, I mean, so it's just it's ludicrous that you have,
you know, people pretending like judges, you know, just like
this had to happen when you have you know, seventy
percent of people you know. At least that's slightly dated,
but still I don't think the percentage is that, even
if it's fifty percent, why not unrepresented people? So to

do this, it's just a very obvious, like fuck you.
I mean, it's just there's no other way to to
justify it.

Speaker 5 (32:51):
Yeah, and like when that happens, right, so you have
this this gentleman from Kenya who's who's been transferred to
to Texas. That then you then have to travel to
Texas right for his hearings to talk to meet with him.

Speaker 6 (33:03):
Yeah, so that's the whole that's the whole big battle.
And I have I have two different clients with two
different experiences. So so he I will either have to
appear via WebEx from my home. But then the judge
now has two people remotely because my client's not an
El Paso either, he's detained an ants in Texas, which

is a blip about three hours away from Dallas or something.
So they and this is also by design, right, they
put all these attention centers in the middle of nowhere
because God forbid, the public sees that people seeking asylum
are in prisons. So anyways, so both of us are
going to be remote if that's the case. So, I mean,
I think there needs to be some personal contact and

maybe if I can have some communication with the DHS council,
I have to go to El Paso to give my
clients the best chance of something, you know, otherwise we're
both faces on this video with a with a fifth
circuit judge, you know. So the other the flip side
of the coin was that I have another client who
was transferred and his trial is literally around the corner.
It's next week. So yeah, he was transferred four weeks

before as individual hearings. So I filed something scathing, saying, judge,
please don't consider changing venue. This is you know, yeah,
he's been detained long enough. He's a twenty one year
old by the way.

Speaker 1 (34:19):
I mean, so.

Speaker 6 (34:22):
DHS sheepishly filed something. So Counsel for ICE filed something saying, okay,
well we're asked, we agree to that. We just asked
that he could appear via WebEx from ants in Texas. Also, right,
so now he's going to be a face on a screen.
But I can be at o tie. But still, I mean,
these are all significant disadvantages. I mean, judges are evaluating
immigrants to see whether or not in their mind they're

quote credible. That means do they think they're lying or not.
That's very hard to do on a video because you're
looking for body language. You're looking for subtle things, you know.
And also it's just like the human aspect of it
is very important.

Speaker 1 (34:57):
You know.

Speaker 6 (34:57):
It's easier to deny asylum to somebody on a that
it is somebody sitting in front of you. You know,
there's so many there's so many small aspects, and so
Ice claims like, oh, well, well you just you can
communicate just fine, you know, you can commune. We'll offer
you calls and even video calls. And I'm like, okay,
you don't understand anything about being an attorney and what
it means to to actually represent clients. At the the

person's final court hearing, they are asked to swear to
the contents of not only their asylum application, but also
all evidence they filed. And so if how on earth
can you show them and sit with them to show
them the evidence in person? You know that you can
only do and personally. So it's just this whole concept
that you can that you can even adequately lawyer remotely

or over the phone. It's it's just it's not possible.

Speaker 5 (35:45):
Yeah, and especially for people who are less you know,
like I spent less time on Zoom than we have
in the past four years.

Speaker 6 (35:52):
Right exactly, And a lot of these people are are
are traumatized, you know, and are you like, as an attorney,
you need to build rapport with them, and you do
that by meeting with them in person, otherwise they might
not share vital information with you, you know. And and honestly,
the family of the twenty one year old mainly hired
me to be with him during his final hearing, and

so now I can't even do that, you know, just
to try to calm and you know, these people are petrified.
They've been through so much and now they have to
talk about all of it in front of this American
judge and a robe from a prison. Yeah, and I
have to be their only ally is not even with them.

Speaker 5 (36:32):
Yeah, And like there's understandably in a little country saying
something on the phone or on a call might be
a risk, right one hundred percent. You know, it takes
I'm not saying it's not a risk doing it in
this country. Like all of these things stack up against them.

Speaker 6 (36:47):
I spend most of my time telling my clients, like, hey,
what we discuss on the phone is attorney client privilege,
Like nobody could use this even if they try, and
it doesn't calm them down, because it's just they think
they're being recorded, probably from their experiences in their home countries.
And frankly, I don't even know if we're being recorded.
I just know that it can't be you are, it

can't be used, you know. I mean, so, yeah, there's
so many things that go into representing somebody who's detained,
and I just knows all of this full well. So
this is a very deliberate choice, and it's something we
haven't seen before, like ever. I mean, everybody's pretty shocked
by this.

Speaker 5 (37:25):
Yeah, when did it begin, sort, I.

Speaker 6 (37:27):
Want to say a couple months ago. But this mass
transfer they did that sparked us to talk to the
press and so forth was over Memorial Day weekend. So
they liked to do that too. I've noticed over holiday
weekends because last year they were trying to deport a
couple of my clients even though they had things pending,
and they try to do it over the weekend and
so on purpose, right, and so the client's families would

call and be like, hey, he's being printed, like processed
for being deported, and so we immediately Yeah, I had
to do this twice a year ago, so I had
to send two emails based documenting and ceasing the ICE
attorney being like hy, they have a pending XYZ case.
It is unlawful to stop what you're doing immediately. But like,

had we not been notified over the weekend and sent
that email, they would have been deported despite having a
k So this is the type of stuff that regularly happens.
But it's very ballsy to me to transfer, Like I
think it was probably like one hundred people or hundreds
or something, you know, I mean over a Memorial Day weekend,
you know. And of course, oh, their memo, by the way,
also says they're supposed to notify the attorneys, you know.

I mean, I heard from frantic family members who are like,
why the fuck am I getting a call from ants
in Texas?

Speaker 9 (38:40):

Speaker 6 (38:40):
Oh, and this is rich. You'll appreciate this. It wasn't
even one transfer. They first went to Eden, Texas, which
is another lovely place in Texas. And then a week
later we're moved to this place called blue Bonnet because
they have to give them pretty names, right, detention facility
at Antsen. Yeah, and so I had arranged a egal
call it the first attach a facility and then had

to like do it all, do this process all over again,
and they ask you for everything but like your DNA
in order to prove that you're their attorney, you know,
to get this legal call. I mean, I spent two
weeks just trying to figure out where my client was
and these are two. Imagine this is sucked up like
all my time since Memorial Day. I mean, there's other clients,
you know, I've I've been struggling to get to their cases.
Like thankfully I haven't had too many deadlines, but I

mean it's it's been brutal.

Speaker 5 (39:27):
Yeah, that secks talking brutal, pointing. We have the brutal
obligation to transfer to ads for a second time. So
we're going to do that and then we're going to
come back. All right, we're back. So we've heard about

how ice A transferring people across to different different parts
of the United States. What I wanted to talk about
now was another recent development, which was Joe Biden's executive order,
not the very recent one on role in place. People
have seen that, but it's one quote unquote closing the border.
Can you explain, we haven't really seen that impact on

the ground yet, but can you explain, these people are
supposed to get essentially a document forbidding them from reentering
for five years.

Speaker 6 (40:18):
Correct, And it's not just any document, Yes, it's the
worst document. So it is an expedited removal which is
a fancy term for a deportation order that when issued
by Border Patrol CBP, carries with it a five year bar,
and so that means you're not admissible in any way,
shape or form to the United States, and if you

try to re enter during that time period or even
at any time irregularly, you will then be put in
what's called withholding only proceedings, and that essentially means you
were no longer eligible for anything, not even asylum, just
a very very difficult form of asylum, which is called
withholding or protection of the Convention. It's torture, which is
also very difficult to win. So that those are the

two things you're stuck fighting. And then you are also
mandatory attention, so there's no possibility of you getting out
unless you're in your case, which is of course very
very difficult. So can I haven't seen this play out,
you know, like we're saying, it's it's relatively new, and yeah,
but I can imagine based on my experience and based
on what all of us know, that like, people aren't

gonna have any idea what this is, and they're gonna
and plus there's desperation and other fact. I mean, they
just came to the dairy end. They're not gonna let
a piece of paper stop them, you know. So, I mean,
so these people are probably going to turn around and
try again and end up being in this withholding only posture,
which means they're now really screwed in terms of having

a way difficult time winning any sort of relief and
definitely detained, like they will not be released. I've had
clients on occasion like every blue moon be released, but
the way I is acting these days, I don't think
it'll happen. So one of the thoughts I had is
is this justifying additional detention centers if we're now having

going to have probably more of those types of people,
But its just in general, I don't see there being
a shortage of people they can detain, So I think.

Speaker 5 (42:15):
Yeah, no, I think they Yeah. I don't think that
we have an option in November to vote for a
person who isn't going to build more prisons.

Speaker 6 (42:21):
For refugees one hundred percent, one hundred percent, which is
which is why. And I think that's something very you know,
it can be you can take it and be like, Okay,
I'm so depressed, you know, blah blah, there's nobody to
vote for, like you know, because basically Biden has done,
you know, gravitated so far to the right.

Speaker 5 (42:39):
I called all the stuff that they waved it up
in twenty twenty sod Trump will do this. Biden has
story exactly right.

Speaker 6 (42:44):
And so I don't even know that I called him
Trump Light, but I don't even know if he's Trump
light anymore. He's like more like Trump medium or almost there,
you know.

Speaker 5 (42:50):
So less racist speeches.

Speaker 6 (42:53):
Exactly, Trump minus the racist speeches exactly. So it's just,
I mean, so the way to look at this is
that like literally we are their only hope. I mean,
the government here is not only like not only gonna
not save them from anything. They're in creating all these situations,
putting them in more peril. So it really behooves us

to find all the different grassroots organizations, and there's there's
so many of them that we can help and donate
involundar teer our time too, because that's literally all these
people have.

Speaker 5 (43:25):
Yeah, so let's talk about that a bit, because something
both you and I do as we participate in water drops,
in in migrant aid of various kinds, welcome stations of
the thing we've been doing recently. You know, you and
I were out Now I'm just going to collapse on itself,
but we were out in a place near the border.
We were there when we met the two Mauritanian dudes.

You carried the Chinese exactly. Yeah, Yeah, it was so beautiful, right, Yeah,
it was such a wonderful Like obviously it's pretty bleak
that the guys aren't able to use one of his
legs properly, and yeah, therefore two people who don't share
a single word with him had to carry him. These
two Mauritanian men met. I'll just rewind to tell the
whole story. Yeah, we were driving down the road and
we kept meeting groups of Mauritanian refugees coming north, and

we were able to help them by giving them water
in quick interruption.

Speaker 6 (44:11):
By the way, I looked up Mauritanian and unsurprisingly, they
have female general mulation, child labor and basically any like
it's just horrific capital punishments.

Speaker 5 (44:21):
Yeah, gay people, right exactly. So these people, very very nice,
just wanted mostly a bottle of water, and you know
how far tw weekend surrounded to border Cotrol, which is
what they intend to do. And they kept saying that
there's a guy with a broken leg, and we were like,
oh shit, like, but that's potentially fatal in this place
that we're at. They just keep saying, go down the road,

you'll see him. So we keep going down the road
and we come around the corner and there's two guys
sort of eat and then a third guy in the
middle of them with his hands over both their shoulders, right,
and they're sort of humping him down the road. And
it turns out this Chinese man only speaking Mandarin, he
had like a brace, like an external fixation on his leg,
like like bolts through his leg and couldn't walk. And

these dudes have been carrying him for two days and
they couldn't she speak the same language like they didn't.
They weren't able to communicate, and it was the most
humane thing, and it made me just so ashamed that
like these people, in a time of desperation for themselves,
have taken the risk to help other people, and then
here's our government just being like, screw you. If you

don't belong here, we're going to put you straight in prison.
Or especially these these are mostly Muslim African men from
Mauritania right there. They're generally sort of that that will
be one of the more persecuted demographics. And perhaps you
can talk about like how you got into participating in
water drops and how other people could do so, or
any any form of a direct mutual aid I supposed

to says like advocacy.

Speaker 6 (45:50):
Yeah, yeah, absolutely, I mean I think I think the
main thing to take away is that it's easier to
help or participate then one would think. You know, I
think you look at this issue of immigration and it's
so overwhelming right now, and it can be a bit like,

oh god, you know, what can I possibly do? Or
you know, and even if i'm you know, what difference
am I making?

Speaker 1 (46:16):
You know?

Speaker 6 (46:17):
And it's just like I have the same struggles working
as you know, an immigration attorney, because you're just like God,
you see just the vast need and you know, you
focus on the person in front of you, you know,
And not to sound cheesy, but that's the life you
can affect and so we're and all of us collectively
have an impact more than we know, you know. So

I think that's just the first thing to share. So
don't don't feel defeated and think that. Remember that if
you have twenty extra bucks a month to spare, for example,
like if you donate that to supplies for migrants, then
that literally allows the work of water dropping to continue.
And you know, that's the other side of the coin.

If we can go out all we want, but if
we don't have money or supplies to drop, then nothing
gets done, you know. So if you live in any
part of the country, really you can find a reputable organization,
you know, or BRC is a collective. I volunteer with
Borderlands Relief Collective and every cent goes directly to the
supplies that we drop, and that's a very it's huge

tangible source of help. All of our supplies are consumed,
as you know, within a week or so, we think,
you know. So it's just there's so many different ways
to to participate. There's organizations that allow you to talk
to detained immigrants, you know, like Freedom for Immigrants or
you know, there's different ways you can help. If you

want to communicate with them. There's also detention Resistance, who
works with the people mainly in No Taimesa to help
just provide even a source of support, just someone a
human being to talk to, who can help them with
little things like writing letters or putting money in their
account to be able to contact family members. I say

little things, but those things are huge because if you
can imagine being an immigrant in another country and you
know somebody in that and you're in a prison, but
somebody in that country or a few people are are
showing you love. I think at the end of the day,
whether you're officially deported or when asylum or whatever, those
are the things that stick with people because I know

that they're going to remember that probably for the rest
of their lives.

Speaker 5 (48:30):
Yeah, And I think it's the least we can do
to be welcoming with exactly exactly.

Speaker 6 (48:36):
That's why the welcome stations that we do are so
beautiful too, right, because it's just I mean, what we
were doing that day when we met those two people
or the three people rather, and it's just like they
get they get a help a loving, helpful person as
their first exposure to the United States, and then you know,
I said, instead of border patrol, which makes them take
off their shoelaces and treats them like you know.

Speaker 5 (48:57):
Criminals, exactly exactly, and it's nice. I I've exchanged for
numbers of those people and they're like, oh, you're the
first American I met. You'll always be like my first
American friend. Someone'sta the other day and I thought that
was really sweet.

Speaker 6 (49:08):
It's a beautiful thing. It's a beautiful thing. I think
about that all the time with my clients. You know,
I'm just like God, I feel so fortunate to meet
all these people, you know, from different countries. It's just
and I'm embarrassed to say that I have to usually
google where the country is, you know.

Speaker 7 (49:22):
I mean, it's awful.

Speaker 6 (49:23):
I don't know what our geography education was, but let's
just say I didn't get much of it. But you know,
just where am I going to meet people from Belize,
from Kenya, from Trinidad, from Chad, you know, and be
able to really share life with them to a certain
extent or you know, I know their most vulnerable and
awful experiences. I know their family, you know, or about
their families and about them, and it's a really beautiful thing.

So it's just, you know, unfortunate. So to have to
interact with them and in a prison is just you know,
it's just it's just ridiculous, you know. But so that's
why those welcome tables are I think so just pure
and precious because at that moment there's no bullshit involved yet,
there's no US government. It's just humans interacting with humans.

Speaker 5 (50:04):
Yeah, it totally is really nice. It's one of the
better things that I like to do. And yeah, if
you if a replace where you can do it, you
should do it. If you're not, it would be great
if you get in your money. I am going to
read as we finish up a plug for the sidewalk
school Matamoros and they NOSA. I just want to like
they are in desperate need the money right now. They
do amazing work with people on both sides of the border.

I've been on a panel with Felicia for UCLA that
you can find if you're good at googling things. It's
on YouTube. It's the Allied Community Arts Brigade. UCLA hosted
the panel, so if you if you search that and
border panel, I'm sure you'll find it. And if you
want to know more about the Sidewalk School. I recommend it,
and we're joined there by people from Border Kindness and Alotlado,
which are both excellent organizations working on the border here.

But the Sidewalk School are working with refugees and assigum
seekers on both sides of the border in Matamoros and
by Alsa so in Texas area, and they definately need
your money. If you would like to support them, you
can go to gofund dot me slash zero six CDOC
seventy six and we'll include that in the notes of
this podcast as well. Kasin, thank you so much for

your time. We really appreciate it.

Speaker 1 (51:12):
Thank you, James.

Speaker 10 (51:28):
Welcome to take it up and to here a show
that today is very urgently about things falling apart in
Kenya and how to put them back together again. I'm
your host, Miya Long. What you're about to hear is
an interview about the Kenyan protest that was recorded on Sunday,
July twenty third. At time of recording, it is now
Tuesday the twenty fifth, and in that two day span,
the situation and Kenya has gotten significantly worse. Kenyan police

are firing live ammo into crowds of protesters. They've killed
at least five people today. That numbers expected to rise
as more protesters die in hospitals. The government has deployed
the army and shut down much of the internet in
an attempt to stop news from getting out. On Kenyan TV,
political leaders called the protesters criminals and a threat to
national security. Meanwhile, protesters made good on their slogan occupied

Parliament by storming and then partially burning down the parliament building.
As politicians continue to meet their demands with bullets. What
we've seen today is terrifying cops shooting live AMMO into churches,
cops opening fire on people waiting for medical care. Meanwhile,
to the fury of the protesters, Kenyan troops arrived today
in Haiti to begin the US backed occupation of the country.

We spent this interview largely discussing the local Kenyan political leads,
but this is also an international crisis. Much of the
impetus for the brutal tax increases on basic goods came
from an international monetary FUM bailout deal that required Kenya
to increase its taxes to twenty five percent of the
country's GDP. Thus Kenyans are being robbed twice, once by

the Kenyan political masters of the cops shooting them in
the streets, and again by the IMF and their neolibal
wealth extraction program. As the struggle continues. Let us now
turn to our interview into a more optimistic time and
movement to get a real understanding of what the protests
are about. Welcome to it could happen here a podcast
where the here is currently Kenya. Yeah, I'm your host

Miya Wong, and we're we're going to talk about a
bunch of protests and a bunch of very very very
interesting sort of political developments at Kenya that I think
have gotten very distressingly little coverage in the sort of
like Anglophone maation media. And with me to talk about
that is Justine Wanda's a stand up comedian, a political satirist,

and a writer who's created Fake Book with Justine about
well basically all the stuff that we're going to be
talking about today are there are things you will see
on this show. Justine. Welcome to the show.

Speaker 11 (53:48):
Thank you so much for having me me. How are
you doing?

Speaker 5 (53:52):

Speaker 10 (53:53):
You know this is this This is one of those
morning recordings so I'm a little bit unhinged, but it's okay.
We're I'm really excited to talk to you. So yeah, yeah,
I'm really excited to talk to you.

Speaker 12 (54:06):
And I yeah.

Speaker 10 (54:07):
So I think I think the place to start here
is can you talk about So these protests are about
an upcoming finance bill, So let's talk about what actually
is this bill and what's in it?

Speaker 11 (54:23):
Okay, So for me to be able to talk about
the finance bill, I have to talk about the finance
bill that was past last year.

Speaker 10 (54:31):
Yeah, go for it.

Speaker 11 (54:32):
So in twoy twenty three, we had a finance bill
that was passed. Most of the financial last year had
something called the housing Levy, which basically requires every single
Kenyon who's employed to remove a little bit of their
salary to go directly to pay for an account where

they'll pull the money to build Kenyon's affordable houses. And
in Kenya, house is not especially a crisis in rural
areas because most people have their own personal phones. The
issue is usually the urban centers where housing is actually
very expensive and it's it's very poorly infrastructured, like there's
no water, sometimes there's no electricity in certain parts, like

people have done a lot of illegal collection connections. So
last year the bill was kind of rummed through and
there was so much public participation. Actually in the beginning
that was like a lot of people got angry about
the bill forcing people to take money out of their
pockets to contribute to a fund that didn't seem like
they had a plan. And a lot of politicians were

actually on TV and everyone was watching every interview and
they're like, you don't make any sense, we don't understand. Yeah,
it's like, what is that money for? We're not sure,
but we know we're to building houses. How are you
going to manage the money? Who's going to be in
charge of the money. How is this? Like every single
aspect was met by like some form of deflection or

like a lie, just like a lot of there wasn't
any accountability in the in what they were telling us.
And even the person who was in charge was like
on TV, he was sweating. He looked like he was
lying though who wrote time. So everyone was like, if
this is how you're speaking about it when we aren't

giving out money, what will happen after the fact. But
the bill sailed through and one of the elements that
was in that field that wasn't even in the news
was that avocado farmers in the country will start with
charging us will be charged a certain amount of money
on their produce and they have to produce receipts on
this every single day. What like if yes, if you

sell like an avocado, one avocado or of avocados, you
have to do a breakdown of like your sales and
like provide receipts to the government and then like you're
charged for it. Oh my god, and yes, and the
MPs this like earlier this year, were like when the
bill usually like sometimes it takes a while for the

closest to come into effect. It takes like maybe a
couple of months. So the amoungst their farmers were supposed
to get charged was supposed to go live on sorry
in February or something. So in February, farmers are getting
attacked by like the Kenure Revenue Authority. They're being told
you need to provide these receipts and everything, and everyone
is like, I don't understand because we weren't informed. And

then the politicians who did not read the bill but
first it were like, oh, we didn't read the document.
It was too big what yes, exactly, So like that
kind of information was what that was what was on
the news just before they introduced now the financial twenty
four So it's like, we know you didn't read the

one from last year, you passed a bunch of bill,
is that you didn't understand the impact of it in
the long term, So why would should you? Why should
Kenyans trust you with this new one? And then they
were like, no, we have the best economic interests that
had And then everyone was like, but the billy passed

last year to increase revenue didn't work. So if it
didn't work, what makes you think having a bunch of
new taxes they're going to work. And they couldn't answer that.
And now this finance built entertain wants to introduce much
of your call tax, where if you own a car,
you will pay like a certain amount like I think

two percent that's of the voliation of your car, and
you paid to your insurance company every single year.

Speaker 10 (58:47):
Wait do you insure?

Speaker 7 (58:48):

Speaker 11 (58:50):

Speaker 12 (58:50):

Speaker 1 (58:51):

Speaker 10 (58:52):
Hold on, so why why is the tax? Why is
this being paid to the insurance company?

Speaker 11 (58:58):
Because that's that's how people asking. It's like, we understand
because insurance and Kenya is mostly run by private entities
just know exactly what they're doing, so it's more like
a way to privates and get money into people's protects
so we can't see and then and end up being
stolen and there will be no thoportability. But they say
it's easier because the insurance company is already handled this

kind of stuff. So it's on top of your insurance.
On top of the insurance you pay for your car,
you pay the motor vehicle tax as part of that.
And I'm like, that's ridiculous. We don't trust our money
on any given day. Why would you think we would
just to suddenly with the branch of money being granted
by a private from somewhere because they're not going to

show us their books.

Speaker 10 (59:45):
Yes, it seems like part of this too, is just
that the sort of tax infrastructure isn't very like the
tax collection infrastructure isn't very good, because you would think
that that wouldn't be that hard for the government to
just collect. Instead, we have like a like an Ottoman
style tax farming situation.

Speaker 11 (01:00:05):
So I love it you say that, because like that's
how that's exactly how it feels like everything is run.
It's very we're the smartest people in the room. We
can't make the wrong decision. But you've made the wrong
decision again and again and again, and now we're like,
we want to see the approach. We want to understand
how this is going to work in the face of unemployment,

in the face of like the country has not been
in good economic trajectory for a while now, and that
those economic shocks can be felt. A lot of people
are closing down their businesses. A lot of people are downsizing,
which means it's less people employed. Even the beauty industry,
which is mostly like random inputs, because they're chudgling so

much input duty, the beauty industry can't even stand on
its own, so people are not just buying less makeup.
It's like people who are those stores and any of
those kinds of basay. This is can't even have the
like the person who comes to get the job days.
It becomes a bit of a problem. So everyone is like,
if you're going to charge us more, you have to

have an infrastructure that works for us.

Speaker 12 (01:01:11):

Speaker 11 (01:01:13):
Yeah. Another tax that they're adding on the Finance bill
is the inputs duty fee to like sanitary towels, wheelchair tired,
like because like Kenya doesn't manufacture a lot of stuff.
So you find like our like the pad manufacturing industry
in Kenya, like sanitary towers, only two percent are manufactured here,

like a big chunk comes from outside and they want
to increase the input duty on that. So that means
the pads in the market are going to be even
more expensive.

Speaker 10 (01:01:45):
Yeah, and that's something that like that that's not that's
not a like that's that's that's that's not a luxury good.
You just need that.

Speaker 11 (01:01:54):
Yeah, So everyone was like, Okay, I guess though, we'll
just have to stop having periods. Is like that, that's
what you're saying, Like we're govern have to magically, Yeah,
we're gonna have to figure out magically with nature to
just stop having periods because you guys want to tax
us in this particular way. And it's it's not just

like the small things because like the problem with the
Kenyans space, especially with sensitive issues. So our our third president,
his name was Mikey Baki, was the first one of
the first presidents in the world to remove v ty

on sanitary towers. Like he was seen as like someone
who's setting an example for so many people. And then
the fact that this is happening when this country was
seen as like a chin setter to like not just
African countries but other countries around the world when it
comes to like very important goods, it was felt like

going backwards, and not in a way. It's not like
we didn't have an example to follow. We actually did
have a set precedent on like how an economy is
supposed to work. So everyone who's grown up in these
particular environments where they felt safe and protected by the
government and like the government taking they live on very
important issues was like, you can't say building Kenya, buying

Kenya is a top priority for you. And even electricity
costs are expensive, yeah, because even this will adds like
a fewel levy tax it's going up by seven shillings,
which is way too expensive. So you pay for your fuel,
but like most of the charges on the fuel is
just the levees and taxes and they're adding a little

bit more year.

Speaker 10 (01:03:49):
And it seems like from the way that these are
being structured that you know, I mean, one of the
things with direct like I guess we call them sales
taxes here is that the incredibly regressive. The people who
get affected the most by are the people who you
don't have that much money versus something like doing you know,
versus doing like an income tax, and like the people

who are the highest owners. This is this the burden,
This falls entirely on people who are poor and can't
afford it.

Speaker 11 (01:04:17):
Yes, that's I think it's very scary to think a
lot of our politicians because they get paid with taxpayer money,
and what they did when during when they were writing,
when they were contributing to the budget, they were like,
we want we want this and this, want to be
added for this and this thing. But the problem is,
like when you look deep down what they're looking for,

they don't want to pay taxes off of their salaries.
They want to find a way for taxpayers to pay
for part of the taxes that are being added so
that they don't have to lose money. Yeah, and every yeah,
everyone is like, we know your budgeting for corruption. We
can see you, we can see still, we can see
you still, and we don't want to be part of that.

And now to them it was like we're being aggressive
because we want we want them to be held accountable
for their very punitive for the punitive measures that they're
sending to like regular opinions. As you said, a lot
of sales taps is affect every day before and we
don't know how else to stop it. And I think
that's why they protest are so they're catching fire and

everyone wants to be out in the street.

Speaker 10 (01:05:25):
Yeah, and we are going to we are going to
come back and talk about the protests in a second,
but first I here, here are some products and services
that are I don't know, probably also be taxed. But

all right, and we are back. Yeah, So okay, I
think I think people should should have like a decent
understanding of the fact that these taxes are these are
tax to some basic commodities that people need. And that's
one of the easiest ways to start a protest movement
is to suddenly make it too expensive to live. So

let's talk about who. Yeah, how these protests sort of
started and how they've been being organized.

Speaker 11 (01:06:16):
My issues that we can't really say how the protests started,
but there was a lot of anger by Kenyons online
because Kenyons are chronically online, like especially the younger generation,
a lot of people have cell phones, a lot of
people are not tuned into the news really, but the
information sharing happens whell Like when a clip from the
news is cut put on tiptop, people see it, this

is happening, so it will get angry and then they shared.
So what happened with the the Finance book. People would
cut very little clips from the news and then someone
would help put it in context. So that's where my
channel comes in, where I'm not just using the news clips.
I provide evidence like I've got through the Finance built,

and then even consults with people who are in like
ask lawyers on Twitter, like people who have resources and
understand the law, or like what that would mean for
everyday cannons. I would literally reach out and it got
to a point where I am now in communication with
the right channels, like you can directly ask how this
would impact people, like if they tax b

like refuse to make it easier for suppliers to get
items for the supply chain, how does this affect everyday people?
So that helps bridge the graph of information and now
with more people critically not just looking at their news
but finding the evidence for themselves. Really have helped us
get to a point where when you share, we are

protesting about this issue. This is where we're going, this
is what's happening. This this will happen in a certain town.
So like Nairobi had its own occupy parliament reject the
financial demonstration, it happened in Mombasa, to it happened in
neary Elderate, all these smaller towns where people will live,

but they're people from rural areas. They won't really care.
And I'm like, you don't know that. Yeah. And also
something that's really magical that's happened. A lot of Kenyons
were like, Okay, maybe there there are a lot of
Kenyons who live in rural areas who don't have media
that doesn't cater to traditional listeners, like people who only

speak certain languages so vernacular stations. So people started using
TikTok to do direct translation. It's like this is the script, yes,
this is the script for the the financial buildings. Are
the taxes being added. This is the tax on bread,
This is the tax on your on your vehicle. This
is the tax that will happen on like period and

sanitary paths and diapers and everything. So someone does the
whole break down in their vernacular language and they share
it on their family Whatspp groups called penans love whatksapp.
That's why if you're if you want to do anything
proper gandalate, you can easily bot onwards app before messages
are crazy. So because like WhatsApp is mostly co opted

by antis and moms and people who love to share.
Please go to chat share share this to seven friends.
People took that mandy to where they send it to
their moms and then have it shared like seven of
their friends who don't understand me do what the finance
bill entails. And that is really changing the landscape of
like who gets to interpret the bills, who gets to

understand how it influences them. And it's been very very effective,
So people who are passive are more and more understanding
of like why everyone is on the streets.

Speaker 10 (01:09:38):
Yeah, yeah, it seems like it almost seems like there's
isn't there's kind of a I don't know, it's like
a TikTok think tank that's been sort of doing this
valuation that has been spread through That's that's really cool.

Speaker 11 (01:09:52):
I'm just saying it's absolutely lovely to see because like
tribalism has been a tool that's been wielded, especially during elections,
to make onions look like they don't care about each
other and they can't go beyond their differences. And this
time it's like, yeah, we do have language barriers, but
we're not going to let that affect us negatively. We're
going to figure out a way through the noise before

they start co opting those spaces and start saying, oh,
gen z, kids are lying or millennials are just started
getting money, so why would they care about taxes? And
so everyone is making sure that those spaces are not corrupted. Yeah.

Speaker 10 (01:10:29):
Yeah, it seems like a really sort of incredible popular
education thing that's been empowering this. Yeah, so I want to,
I guess talk about I mean, one of the things
that I think maybe kind of breached the I don't know,
calling it like the Great Firewall is exactly right, but
it's like, I think one of I think one of

the parts of this that has gotten a little bit
of play in the sort of beautia over here has
been the police response, which has been terrible. Yeah, about
what the cops have been.

Speaker 11 (01:11:01):
Doing, Okay, in Kenya protests Historically, protests have always been
extremely violent, Like during the Moi era, people used to
get beaten unlocked. MOI was al second president. He was
in office for twenty four years, so he was a

power holder a least those words, there's a power holder.
He didn't want to go anywhere. He wanted to stay
in power as long as he could and to counter
anyone who would go against him. People were tortured, people
were disappeared, people were children like dropped in forest. Many
families couldn't find their members, especially if they went out

of protest or do anything. That's why Wankarematas story, who's
like one of the biggest environment total champions the world
has ever seen. Her story was so unique because in
the face of the most brutal dictators and every thing,
she showed up and like she didn't just disagree, but
she brought back and she did she use the same

tactics that people are using now. She informed the very
ignored part of the population to get the information across
that if they start taking away your land and putting
down your tree and you won't be able to pumb,
you won't have anything. This is this whole place is
going to be at their set in a couple of years.
So everyone was funnying because like land is a very

sensitive issue yea, And that's why the movement worked so
well because she was not speaking, she was not just
peaking against authoritude that she was going to like the
people who who were going to be affected the most.
And during those protests she was beaten up. Her hair
was like young top her hair. It was very Yeah,

it was very graphic and very painful. Like you watch
these videos and they're like, who does something like this?
And now it's very replicated. Sorry, it was replicated again
like throughout his presidency, but throughout the years, a lot
of civil rights movements and all the community based organizations

like came together and they will still protest about staff,
but the issue it had moved on from like large
protests to even smaller protests, being like they would send
the police to bitter people who are speaking up about
any issue. And usually because like you're in smaller communities,
there's no way to track. So if someone lies in

Quibera and it's a slam area and it's mostly disenfranchised,
the community organizations there, no they turn and find justice
for the family. But because our police are mostly helped,
you can't hold them to account because they work for
the state, it's very hard to get any form of justice.
But this time was it last year when people are

protesting about the cost of living. I think it was
just shortly before the finance built twenty twenty three past
people were protesting. People were out and they were angry
about everything, and people were beaten up. Someone lost their
two year old child because the child was beaten by
the police. Yeah. Yeah, Like there's a woman who lost

her son. Because usually when you're at protests, sometimes the
people who are passing by, but because you're there and
the police are there, they end up eating. Even if
you're not past year, you're not back to the process.
So that there's a woman who ended up losing her
son last year to the protest, and her adopted son too.
And then this this year, like a couple of weeks ago,

she died in a flood in my daddy, So and
then yess are like seeing their terrible nature of like
how state violence kIPS continuing. So this time when the
protests are being organized, everyone who is like make sure
you're peaceful, don't carry in stones because like throws stones

like Perry stones. You couldn't even pick up teas and
like throw it back and everything, and this time everyone
is like, just make sure you're very peaceful, only use
your voice, protect each other. Like a lot of the
announcements around the protests like make sure it's paceful so
that they don't have an excuse to say that you
are out on the streets doing something illegal. You don't
attack shops, you don't try and force yourself into anyone's premises.

And what happened that was very beautiful this year is
like the establishments, like the one I'm in right now
was helped protect citizens who were protesting, so kids would
be out of this then start getting teaters and like
they would open the door, people would come in and
they would close the door until the away. Yeah, so
you find establishments are working to not just protect people,

but also to be to be part of showing like
this is our premises. It's not being looted, it's not
being destroyed, because destruction of property apparently is a bigger
problem than you losing your life. So most people felt
they were safe at the protest, and they also felt
like they were seen by other protesters. So it was

largely peaceful, very well coordinated. There's information on how to
get medical help or in case we're arrested, how to
get as bigal assistance. So every single element was like
we're not just going to ban out of like going
into the streets, but making sure everyone returns home safely.

A lot of the protests in the past war they
got a little violent because maybe some of the protesters
went road and obviously their politicians love to use bad
actors where they implant a bunch of people who go
and destroy business premises, and then it looks like the
protesters didn't come there to actually protest, they were there
for their own selfish reasons. So this time what happened

is like a lot of the protesters were given the
right information on how to stay peaceful. It's like these
are the streets to use, these are the meeting points,
These are the contract people for in case you get injured,
is this medic in case you get arrested, these are
the lawyers in case your friend disappears. Make sure they
have a live location on so we can track them

and everything. So it was widely successful because that kind
of peaceful and well coordinated navigated towards spaces that were
if not before, like the safety of everyone was a
priority and because our leaders can't really find who started

the protests because it's mostly like a group who led
the movement, they've started abducting who they feel like our
community leaders.

Speaker 10 (01:17:53):
Yeah, yeah, so I guess that that's something I wanted
to ask about, was like, has the police response actually
been any less bad this time that has been with
other So.

Speaker 11 (01:18:03):
This time on Thursday, they shot, Yeah, they shot into
a crowd and one of them ended up shooting at
twenty four year old and he bled out he died.
His name is Rex Marsill. And then another kid was
also shot. His name is Evans Kiragu was also shot,

and I think they were trying to get him help
and everything, but he died yesterday, I believe. And there's
still other rochesters who are yet to be found. And
then yesterday morning there's a very popular Twitter personality who
was disappeared, like they kind of appracted him. Yeah yeah,

But then Kenyon's held a space online for over six
hours and they're like they were dragging government officials and
like if you people don't return this particular person, we will,
And it was very particularly funny because Kenyon's, you would
think this younger generation people don't have concentration issues. No

one is going to listen to us. But like everyone
was like online and they were paying attention to like
every single speaker just to keep the space longer, holding
space for the person who had been taken. And he
was found his lawyers, the lawyer, sorry, the lawyers in
church found him and they went and like they went
and got him and he went back safe, but obviously

you could see he was visibly shaken. His creaturent name
is crazy and aerobian. Yeah, and then now today they
took one of the doctors was organizing for a blad
drive in like in a certain up market area. They
just picked him out, and like, no one has been

able to find him until now. So people are still
advocating to like getting back and a lot of big
personalities are making phone calls. Lawyers are showing up that
like if you see this particular car, if you if
you sit in your location, timely informants share the information.
So everyone who's online is trying to get the right
information to make sure that that doctor is brought back.

And yeah, ironically that doctor is actually unemployed because the
the government is refusing to hire new medical personnel because
like it's too expensive when we see them, like driving
around in new cars has like very expensive shoes, and

everyone is like, your shoes could literally pay like three
doctors high high the right thing. Yeah, but I can
ends up pushing to make sure everyone is safe and
everyone who's lost, especially big Twitter influencers and big media
personalities and influencers are coming together to me, they use
their platforms to help find anyone who's not who's been

disappeared or been abducted. Yeah, h.

Speaker 10 (01:21:17):
Where do you think the difference of going from here?
I know, actually, well, actually I think I think I've
lost track of what reading of the bill they're at
right now was.

Speaker 11 (01:21:27):
I thought it was the third reading or it's a
it's at the committee stage. So at the committee stage
they go through the every single close and they try
to justify why they should keep it or whether they're
going to disband it. But everyone is just like, we
don't want any of this because some of the bills,

there's a there's a part of the bill that I
didn't mention where the Kenya Revenue Authority is supposed to
go through Kenyon's personal data to see you're dodging taxes
and I'm like that, it's ridiculous because a lot of
people in kinda are supported by a family member. So
you find, you find if I have money, I'll send
it to my kids, and then my kids made my

body to their friends who's probably in trouble. So if
it looks like I have money coming in, it's probably
maybe because of like a family contribution, a personal contribution.
So they want to charge more taxis on that, and
it actually makes no sense. So it looks like they're
chasm how much money you look like you have. Yeah, yeah,
it looks like they're checking how much money look like

you have, and then they want to taxing on that
or like say you're evading taxes, And it's scaring a
lot of people because once that happens, it feels like
there's no safety in anything you have.

Speaker 10 (01:22:43):
So I guess so from from there, So is the
strategy right now based around sort of trying to get
these trying to get the committees to just like to
have this bill sort of die there or.

Speaker 11 (01:22:57):
A lot of us are trying to make sure the
bill doesn't go any further than it is, and everyone
is tracking their empasse. So what happened even before the
protest people started sharing their MPs numbers. Every single person
would find like a member of Parliament's numbers, and we're like,
if you if this is your relative, please give it
to us. If it is your side, cheek or whatever

whatever where you relate to this person. Because it's government officials,
their numbers should be public anyway, citizens should be able
to reach them. And because they wanted to hide behind
their big, big cause and big houses, we were like, okay,
we're going to find you where you're asked, and we're
going to text you and we're going to tell you

to vote no. And most of the impulse were very dismissing.
They were like, uh, the party that i'm that's backing
me is the one that got me into office. It's like, no,
people voted for you, you should represent their views. So
a lot of canyons held their lives where's like, I
don't care what your boss is telling you or what

party this is, you have to vote with us. So
a lot of MPs who are shamed online some of
them had to but like they changed their votes. Incredible, Yes, yeah,
I dontieve we should do this more often. So that's
really that really gave hope to a lot of canons

who are feeling like maybe their work isn't amounting too much.
But we lost. We lost that one battle. A lot
of us ended up using the battle to the second
reading because many of the MP's were So there's this
fund called the CDF IDIF fund. It's the constituency the
Constituency Development Fund that MPs kind of use it like

their personal bank account. So members of Parliament, Yeah, members
of PARLIAMENTI get the CDIF fund and then they'll use
it to go and like so it's supposed to sally
take care of like bursaries or any county emergencies directly
affecting constituts. But what IMPY is doing is that like
they wild it as a parsenal bank account. So it's

like you have to like do a lot of us
kissing and a lot of performative nonsense for you to
even get some of the money, and a lot of
people don't actually end up getting the money. So what
the budget makers did They decided to talk up the
CDF fund so that more emplies have more money, and

usually they just potet that money. So they're like, Okay,
I feel like my budgeted corruption has hit the account,
I don't need to do the right thing.

Speaker 10 (01:25:43):
Yeah, so that's just literally a bribe exactly.

Speaker 11 (01:25:47):
It's like the best way is like and they're like, no,
I'll have more money to take care of the constituency.
It's like, no, you steal this money anyway, you guys
have any You're not going to do a conscience today
just because money. So most of all are trying to
get the parts of the budget we've seen there, then
let's put into efforts that go there directly to education

and healthcare, even if even if it's directly to the
school instead of the individual. Yeah, so that that will
help cut down on that kind of corruption that a
lot of mpies run with. And I think that's scaring
some of them. And we're hoping we're hoping to get
more people to be to push their members of Parliament

or any nominated representatives to recognize that all these items
that they're voting for it's not just going to affect us,
but will affect them and the money that they're hoping
to steal. So if you're going to steal progress, we're
going to don't get any of the money here.

Speaker 10 (01:26:56):
Incredible, Yeah, is there is there anything else you want
to add before you wrap up.

Speaker 11 (01:27:02):
Yeah, I'll say usually when a lot of stories and
like the African continent are covered, it's usually like Africans
vote for bad leaders, and well that is true. Most
of the times, people don't feel like they have an option.

Speaker 10 (01:27:19):
Yeah, and like you know, if you you listeners statistically
are probably either an American or a brain, so like you.

Speaker 7 (01:27:25):
You you know exactly what that's like.

Speaker 9 (01:27:30):
You're like someone who just you have Trump and he's
like a contra now right now. So yeah, because the
little so TikTok, something happened I think yesterday or something
where people were like, how dependans vote for this person?

Speaker 11 (01:27:51):
You are such a very dark criminal past, and and
everyone was like, have you guys seen yourselves? You can
there there are no highs. Everyone makes very foolish mistakes
and all of us look like we don't know what
to do to make sure people like that don't ascend
into power, because like group things sometimes gets us to

like very dangerous places. It happens everywhere. No one is
any less affected if someone who you hope to lose
games power, like you're all in deep trouble, Like no
one is on a higher pedestal than the other all
of you can actually lose a lot. And one of
the things that we are trying to remind each other's

we're trying not to get to this space. So what
canons are trying to propose like a direct manifesto where
any person who's running has to have like a close
in their manifesto that is going to even be turned
into like a policy and law where if you steal
any money or we co found doing anything corrupt, you
have to like remove yourself from office immediately, like there's

no bargaining to do whatsoever, Like you have to live
office immediately, and then we're going to seize all your
property anything. Yeah, it's like if we're going to get
into power, make sure the salary you're getting is then now,
if you have any ambitions, let them die now, like

do everything before you get into earth. And I think
that's so encouraging to see because everyone is not just
looking at them now and like all these bad taxes
and the bad leadership that we have, but also looking
to the future of like how do we make sure
we don't get here again. So that's really encouraging to
see everyone is making sure that they hold people to

account across the board, like if your protesters, make sure
you're safe, make sure you know this information. But also
for the future, this is what we want. So it's
not just like we're moving bad taxes, but if we're
going to pay taxes, are they going to be used?
And how how are we going to make sure that
the future of the and cheap is being protected by

collective interest and not just like individual worship, which has
been a very very big problem in Kenyan culture because
like over here musicians are barely celebrities, but a politician
would work in here and like people would like lose
arms and legs to just see hi. So we're trying

to make sure we fix that too. Yeah.

Speaker 10 (01:30:28):
Yeah, So I guess the people listening to just want
to try to help support the protests. Are there are
there stuff that other things they can do in places
they can go to find more information.

Speaker 8 (01:30:37):

Speaker 11 (01:30:39):
Because a lot of it is group organized, I have
to find the the information. I could send it to you. Yes,
I don't know if from the top of my head,
because I think and like most people would like do
individual A lot of we have a lot of mobile

money transferred, which are usually direct to the person so
that it doesn't work with various channels and then people
end up misappropriating or stealing. So if community lens, so
I'll have to find the information and then sharing.

Speaker 4 (01:31:16):

Speaker 10 (01:31:16):
Yeah, and okay, if if people want to find you
on the internet, where can they do that?

Speaker 11 (01:31:21):
So on Instagram and TikTok, it's pay work. We just
tin like at people with Justin, like the full handle
on Twitter, it's at official f w w J. So
it's official f w w J, which is just people

with just In official people for.

Speaker 10 (01:31:44):
Yeah, we'll get we'll get that in the description too.

Speaker 11 (01:31:47):
Yeah. Yeah, I do have my personal account, but I
don't know if I want to give that. Yeah, I
just know I can still give it. It's at Justin
wonder j U S D I n E W A
n D Yeah cool.

Speaker 10 (01:32:05):
Yeah, Jessine, thank you so much. Thank you so much
for coming on the show talking about this has been great.

Speaker 11 (01:32:10):
Thank you so much for having me in letting me
like just run my mouth work up.

Speaker 10 (01:32:16):
Yeah, and good good, good luck to you all. Hope
you fucking hope you stop them and bring them all down.

Speaker 11 (01:32:22):
I really hope we do. If we don't, it's gonna
be so sad. Yeah, thank you so much.

Speaker 10 (01:32:31):
Yeah, of course, And yeah, let's spinak it off here
and you too can go make your politicians lives miserable.

Speaker 2 (01:32:53):
Welcome back to it could happen here a podcast where
Robert Evans is lying down on a cout because he
just feels exhausted from sleeping a leftn full hours. Garrison,
you were much younger than me, and don't seem to
feel exhausted because you just woke up after staying up

all night, did you?

Speaker 1 (01:33:16):

Speaker 7 (01:33:17):
No, not as exhausted.

Speaker 2 (01:33:19):
I hate you.

Speaker 13 (01:33:21):
Do you know?

Speaker 7 (01:33:21):
Do you know what is exhausting Robert?

Speaker 2 (01:33:23):

Speaker 7 (01:33:24):
The twenty twenty four presidential election.

Speaker 2 (01:33:26):
The twenty twenty four presidential election. Yeah, I hate it.
I hate it, Garrison, I hate it. But also I
have made a commitment. I have made a commitment to
making a prediction about the election this year and sticking
to it, even though it's going to make everybody angry.
And I have a good reason for doing so. It's
because I want to try one of the rarest drugs

that exists in the world today, that Nate Silver. Shit. See,
everyone's been wondering since like twenty twenty what's up with
that guy. Did he like lose his mind? Was he
always kind of like out there and we just didn't
notice because he he got lucky a couple of elections
in a row. And the answer to that is no,

Nate was a pretty reasonable guy. He comes out of
like not politics. He only got into politics in two
thousand and six because they banned online gambling and he
got angry about it. And then he accurately predicted the
two thousand and eight and twenty twelve elections.

Speaker 7 (01:34:28):
Which wasn't hard to be fu Which wasn't hard.

Speaker 2 (01:34:30):
No, it was not. I mean, he got all the
states right, but it was just a matter because people
have pointed out he didn't seem to be nearly as
accurate in twenty sixteen or twenty twenty. There's a degree
of fairness to that. But like twight and twenty twelve
were our last non smartphone elections where there wasn't this
like big, you know, demon of social media kind of

hiding behind everything and making everything a lot weirder. And
I think part of you know, I think what ultimately
caused Nate's madness though, is that in twenty sixteen he
did pretty well. He like laid out he was a
twenty nine percent chance of Trump winning, and when he
explained what that chance was, how Trump might sweep the
Blue Firewall states and whatnot, it's basically what wound up happening,

and as like a reward for being more or less correct.
While the election was going on, all of the Democrats
hated him because the news sources they liked said that
Trump had only a two percent chance of winning, and
then when the election was over, it became like mainstream
kind of reality to just say, yeah, Nate fucked that

one up. He finally screwed up, and I think that
that mix of things is what's driven him insane. So
I've decided to predict that there's a twenty nine percent
chance that the election is basically the same as twenty
twenty and now, unlike Nate, I don't have any kind
of math to back that up. It's just a gut feeling.
But I'm calling that now because I want people to

get really angry at me now, and then ideally, when
I'm right, they'll get even angrier at me, and then
I can go insany it on social media and just
gradly become completely unhinged and see what it's like to
be Nate Silver, the Ultimate high Garrison.

Speaker 7 (01:36:13):
See, I thought you were going to say you thought
there was a twenty nine percent chance that Nate Silver
would just completely completely lose it and do some like like.

Speaker 2 (01:36:24):
You do a major terrorism.

Speaker 5 (01:36:25):

Speaker 7 (01:36:26):
Yeahs that's what I thought.

Speaker 11 (01:36:28):

Speaker 2 (01:36:28):
He drives a double decker bus into the end of
the Lincoln Memorial. God, that's my that's my hope.

Speaker 7 (01:36:35):
He storms the five thirty eight headquarters.

Speaker 2 (01:36:37):
Yeah, he's gonna take it back once and for all.

Speaker 7 (01:36:45):
Okay, so today we're gonna be talking about election polling. Uh,
the debate is very very soon here in Atlanta, Georgia,
And as a little bit of a preparatory measure, we
want to go over some of the actual poll numbers
for the twenty twenty four presidential election. I like to
start with this Iowa poe from Seltzer and Co. Now,

Iowa's a weird one, right. Iowa has has gone read
pretty consistently the past two years, although twenty twenty was
closer than twenty sixteen. In twenty twenty, Trump won the
state by fifty three point one percent to Biden's forty
four point nine percent. But the numbers right now are
much much worse for Biden. Not good, No, it's it's

it's pretty bad. Tr Trump is leading Biden in the
general election in Iowa by eighteen percentage points, and third
party candidates, including Kennedy and the Libertarian candidate Chase Oliver,
are receiving a combined fifteen percent support. It's pretty bad.
It hasn't been this bad in a while.

Speaker 11 (01:37:46):

Speaker 7 (01:37:46):
People like to use this specific Iowa poll as kind
of a barometer for the Midwest in general, and that's,
you know, not completely accurate all the time, but it
is something that people do consistently to as a general
barometer for Trump's possible success in the Midwest. Now we
have minnesotatae.

Speaker 2 (01:38:06):
Because one of the most probably the most viable path
to Biden winning involves holding that quote unquote blue firewall,
which doesn't include Iowa obviously. It does include Michigan and Wisconsin,
both of which are generally within the margin of error
in most polls but looking very sketchy for Biden compared
to how he would like them to be at this point.

Speaker 7 (01:38:26):
Wisconsin's not looking great. Minnesota. According to a survey a
USA poll from just a few days ago, Biden is
up six points.

Speaker 2 (01:38:33):
Yes, Yes, Michigan is I think the one I was
saying is a little closer. Yeah.

Speaker 7 (01:38:37):
So that's kind of the situation with this poll. And
I'm not going to get into any of the more
specific numbers because the numbers in this Iowa poll are
going to be actually pretty reminiscent of more of the
general election numbers, which we're going to get into, especially
when we're going to start factoring in things like the
conviction and Trump's popularity among independence which could very well

be a major deciding factor in this election. So I'm
going to quote from Forbes here quote. Trump leads Biden
by one point fifty to twenty nine percent in a
CBS poll released Sunday that comes after a streak of
surveys found Trump's lead has slipped since his felony conviction
Manhattan last month, including a Fox News survey released Wednesday,
the nineteenth that shows Biden up by two points, a

three point swing since the network's May survey. This was
among a streak of five poles since mid June that
show Biden beating or tied with Trump unquote. So Biden
has made some considerable progress in the polls in the
past month. Biden and Trump are now tied in the
Morning Consults weekly survey, as Biden has now been leading
Trump by a point in for two weeks in a row.

A month prior, Trump was way way ahead of Biden,
and the two are also tied in the Economist You
Go of survey released last Thursday, as well as a
PBST Marrist poll from Tuesday the eighteenth.

Speaker 2 (01:39:56):
Yeah, and there's a couple of things. I mean, like,
it's easy to say that's probably due to the conviction,
because that's the biggest thing that's happened since then. But
I also think there's a decent chance that some of
that is just the result of the fact that Trump
is now definitely the nominee, which was a little more
up in the air previously, so now people are kind
of forced to consider what that really means. But it

does seem in general like there's been motion and like
things have been moving in Biden's favor since the conviction.
So I don't think it's wrong to say that probably
overall the evidence suggests helps Biden at this point.

Speaker 7 (01:40:30):
Yeah, and the Fox News survey is really interesting because
they have this They have it on a graph here
and you can see Biden steadily moving upwards on the
graph very consistently, and Trump has largely flatlined. If not,
is actually kind of moving a little bit down. Robert F.
Kennedy Junior is also moving quite down. Yeah, not completely

surprising considering the whole brain brainworms thing.

Speaker 2 (01:40:57):
He's going to be the most interesting thing, the most
interesting thing because whether or not Trump wins could mean
whether or not we are able to continue doing what
we do. But OURFK is kind of the most interesting
thing for me in terms of like, are is it
going to Is there going to be any kind of
evidence that there's actually real hunger for a third party
which everyone keeps talking about. Is this constant topic of

discussion in US politics, but it never happens, and and
people were getting very RFK is obviously a bad guy
to pin your hopes on a viable third party on,
but I am interested to see if it if it,
because there's a decent evidence that the primary chunk because
when you factor in RFK, Biden's lead doesn't go down right,

because RFK is really popular among a lot of the
independence that Trump is already strong with. And so the
big question is, like, is he going to drain votes
from Trump or just kind of fizzle out. And I
think right now the smart money is kind of on
fizzling out. But it's it's a little hard to say.

Speaker 7 (01:41:58):
Do you know what we can say for sure though, Robert.

Speaker 2 (01:42:01):
That Robert F. Kennedy Junior is the primary sponsor of
this podcast.

Speaker 7 (01:42:06):
God, I hope, so, I hope, I really hope we
start getting some RFK ads on here.

Speaker 2 (01:42:10):
Look, folks, if you if you're not sure whether or
not you want to vote for RFK, we get it.
You know, obviously it's a this is a big choice.
But our recommendation is head down to the Gulf of
Galveston and shove your head in that in that Texas
coast water, get a couple of Amibas rattling around on
that brainy ores, and then see how you feel about
our FK Junior. You know, all right, we are back.

Speaker 7 (01:42:43):
Let's talk a little bit about independence, because this voting
block will basically be the deciding factor in this whole election.
So that PBS Marrist poll that found Trump and Biden
tied also found that Trump has lost six points with
independent compared to their poll taken just before his conviction
last May. And Biden has gained eight points with independence

and now leads Trump by two points in that category.
And similarly, the Fox poll also shows Biden leading by
nine points among independents.

Speaker 2 (01:43:17):
And that's a massive shift. That's enough of a shift
that I wonder how much polling methodology maybe to explain
for it, Like were they just pulling these people? Were
they pulling them badly before? Or are they pulling them
badly now? Because that's that's quite a lot of movement.

Speaker 7 (01:43:32):
We'll talk a little bit about pulling methodology here at
the end, because it might. Yeah, it is, certainly the
polling methodology produces a large degree of the numbers. A
lot of these polls have a margin of error of
about three point five percent. But this this finding is
consistent across almost every single poll being done right now.
A political uh ipsos poll from mid June found that

thirty two percent of independence say they are now less
likely to support Trump after his conviction, with twenty one
percent saying it would be an important factor in their vote.

Speaker 2 (01:44:05):
Yep, And I did. This is the kind when we
were taught would talk in the group chat before the conviction.
I would. I made a note a couple of times
of the fact that there's a sizeable number of Americans
who are not what you'd call high information voters but
just feel really gross about voting for a felon. And
I think these are the kind of people who are
independence a lot of the times. They're not people who

think much about politics. They're people who.

Speaker 7 (01:44:28):
Makes part m typically yeah.

Speaker 2 (01:44:31):
Yeah, yeah, and they can kind of make a swing,
gut decision on either of these guys in a moment,
and if you tell well, he's a felon, that matters
to some people. There's like the this frustrates a lot
of like high information political analysts, the fact that so
many Americans just kind of like make almost random decisions
like flip of a coid calls about what to do, but.

Speaker 7 (01:44:53):
Which is also what makes pulling very hard. Is right,
but all all polls also into hey, that this will
probably be a much closer election than twenty twenties, and
in an election this close, small shifts among independents could
very well determine the outcome. Now, I'm going to quote
from that Political Episos report on their own poll quote

quote A plurality of respondents in our poll, thirty eight
percent reported that Trump's conviction would have no impact on
their likelihood support Trump for president. Thirty three percent of
respondent said that the conviction made them less likely to
support Trump, while only seventeen percent said it made them
more likely. These results were worse for Trunk. Among respondents
who said they were political independents, thirty two percent said
that the conviction made them less likely to support and

only twelve said that it made them more likely to
support Trump unquote. And that same poll also found that
nine percent of Republicans say they're now less likely to
support Trump.

Speaker 2 (01:45:47):
Yeah, which is massive, and that that actually makes me
want to bring up one of the guys the analysts
I've been reading, because this is actually the extent that
there's any real basis behind my twenty nine percent chance
things work out basically, like twenty twenty one, it's this
this fucking dude Helmet Norpoth Norpoth is he's one of

these guys who's built a model, Like you get these
every now and then, like because they're great content for
TV news. Dudes like, oh, this guy's got a model
prediction the election. His model predicted the last forty elections properly,
even though they like ran them through after we knew
how the elections were going to go, and I don't
know how fair that is. Helmet actually did accurately predict

a couple of like the last He's had his model
going the primary model for like the last seven elections,
and it predicted five of them correctly. Now, one it
got right was twenty sixteen, although it predicted how Trump
was going to win wrong, it got that he was
going to win right. I don't know how much credence
you want to give that. And he fucked up in
twenty twenty, although you know the fact that there was

a pandemic, then I'll give him a little bit of grace.
The other one he fucked up was twenty was two thousand,
but he called it.

Speaker 10 (01:46:57):
He called it for Gore.

Speaker 2 (01:46:58):
So yeah, well, I'll read from his website describing like
how this works, because it's relevant to what you're talking
about in terms of independent voters, and it's also relevant
to what I think is another major factor and who's
going to ultimately win, which is likely voters versus like correct.
If I feel like it, I'll vote because Biden's lead
jumps substantially when you consider likely voters correct whereas Trump

does very well with like maybe voters, and I kind
of don't feel like this is going to be a
high turnout election. Rights, that's what I am seeing.

Speaker 7 (01:47:29):
We have some data on this that I'll talk about later.

Speaker 2 (01:47:31):
Yeah, yeah, And Helmet's model works that way. So quote,
the primary model gives President Joe Biden a seventy five
percent chance to defeat Donald Trump in November. This forecast
takes account of the performance of the two candidates in
the early primaries. Biden won the Democratic contest in those
states by far larger margins than Trump did and Republican ones.
What also benefits Biden and the general election is an
electoral cycle that fits the sitting president in a nutshell.

A White House incumbent facing no significant challenge in primaries
almost always wins reelection for the electoral college. The most
likely outcome of the twenty twenty four election predicted by
the model is that Biden will get three fifteen and
Trump two two three And basically, so part of why
I think this guy's probably a hack, but it's kind
of interesting is he's looking at how they performed relative

to each other in their primaries, and you could there's
a degree to which you can say, like, well, primaries
are absolutely not general elections. But what it does show
is relative how much Trump's support has faded from Republicans.
And Trump actually did considerably less well in the primaries
than he did in twenty twenty. Right totally, there was

a degree of actual like hunger to vote for Kerry
Lake Humaya, I think, is the Arizona Right candidate who
was running against him, and he showed weakness in a
number of primary states that was not there in twenty twenty,
which suggests, along with the polling you showed, you know

that like nine percent of Republicans are less likely to
vote from after they can an amount of weakness in
his base that could be pretty meaningful when we get
to the election. And I don't think it's been taken
into account enough by, for example, folks on the left
looking at how much everybody hates Joe Biden, which is
also a very real factor. But I think that people
are kind of denying the degree to which a lot

of folks who should be his based don't like Trump anymore.

Speaker 7 (01:49:22):
Yeah, and this is one of the weird things. Post
to conviction. There were some pundits who are trying to
make an argument that somehow the conviction would actually make
Trump a more popular choice, which maybe works if you're
like a contrarian, but it doesn't really make much sense.
And if you look at like the approval ratings for
the conviction and the verdict, they fall pretty pretty well

on party lines. It's really going to come down to independence.
Like everyone who's going to vote for Trump, who like
really really really want to vote for Trump, are still
going to vote for Trump, right, Like that's how it goes.

Speaker 2 (01:49:57):
Absolutely not, and they will buy the I'm voting for
the felon hats that Facebook keeps trying to sell.

Speaker 7 (01:50:02):
Made absolutely right, Like, those are not the people that
are in question, But there is a large number of
other people who do not own a mega hat who
are actually, you know, questionable in who they're going to
vote for. On this note, I'd like to like to
quote again from Forbes quote. Polls consistently show the conviction
is a low priority for most voters in deciding who
to actually cast their ballot for. The political Ipsos poll

found that fifty three percent said it's not important said
it's not important to their voting decision. Well sixty one
percent in a Reuter's pull released last week, said it
won't impact their vote unquote. Now, one of the clearer
shifts that we have seen post verdict is a sizable
increase in Biden voters who list stopping Trump as one
of their main reasons to do so. This we have
numbers from March to now, is that the main reason

for supporting Biden. In March, we had forty seven percent
saying it's to oppose Trump. Now it's fifty four percent
saying it's to oppose Trump. Which I think that number
will only increase the closer we get to the election,
because people don't want Trump to be present, and again
even though they don't like Biden like. The other thing
with these numbers is that the percent of people who

say I like Biden as reason for supporting him has
decreased since March. Yes, yes, by four percent.

Speaker 2 (01:51:15):
Of course, because he's not likable and he's he shouldn't
be president still, but Trump is even like and people
understand like I that is the number one thing when
I go out of like my the bubble of my
friends and whatnot and talk to family members or just
like have conversations with ret like uber drivers or whatnot

about politics. I have not heard a single person state
a reason for vote. They want to vote for Biden
that is more important than I don't want Trump to
be president. That is everyone that I encounter basically like I'm,
I'm obviously you have other people, but it is weird
to the extent to which that's what this election is
going to come down on. And I kind of think

it's evidence that like of a of a failure and
strategy in Trump's part, because I think he probably could
do better if he were to focus on allaying those
fears that he wants to become a dictator as opposed
to harping on like one of the things that's interesting
to me. He's campaigning very heavily in Wisconsin right now.
He's already made like two visits just to southeast Wisconsin

in the last two months. Because Wisconsin is up for
grabs right Every poll I've seen basically is within margin
of air. It's either guy's game, and it's a critical state.
And Trump is hammering Biden on crime in Wisconsin. Right
look at how your dims have done, look at how
much more violent this city's become. And about one percent
of registered voters in Wisconsin consider crime a major concern

in a presidential election. And part of that's because like
violent crime has dropped and like massively in Wisconsin and
nationwide over the last year. And I do wonder the
extent to which because Americans' views on crime are not
based on how bad crime actually is. But I also
wonder if people are start are like the degree to

which that's a vote in concern for people is fading
because it has dropped so much. And I'll be curious
to see if kind of Trump's strategy of hammering the
Democrats because they're bad on crime is going to prove
to be a serious misstep.

Speaker 7 (01:53:14):
Well, even Fox News has had to do recent segments
talking about how there actually has been a drop in crime,
even though Americans feel like it hasn't, which is quite
funny little tidbit. We're all looking for the guy who
did this moment. Now, I do want to get through
a few more conviction numbers. I'm going to quote from
politicals report on their own poll regarding the importance of

the conviction in people's vote. Quote, twenty two percent of
respondents said the conviction is important to how they will
vote and that it will make them less likely to
support Trump. Only six percent of respondents took the other
side of the question, saying they are more likely to
support A nearly identical negative effect showed up among independents,
with twenty one percent saying they are less likely to
support and five percent saying they are more likely unquote now.

Of those who say the conviction is important to how
they will vote, seven percent of Republicans say they are
less likely to support Trump. So that's an interesting number,
and only thirteen percent say they are more likely and like,
come on, those people were always going to vote for
Trump anyway. Forty percent of Democrats, of course, say that
they are less likely now. Twenty eight percent of Republicans

say that the conviction makes them more likely to support Trump,
but it won't affect their vote, and among those who
said the conviction isn't important to how they will vote,
forty percent said that it has basically no impact on
their support of Trump. Most those people are independents now.
Political also asked respondents if they thought the prosecution was
brought to help Joe Biden, and most around fifty one

percent disagree with the claim, but forty three percent agreed
and said that the case had probably been brought to
help Biden, and these results are roughly similar among independents.
So still most people don't think so, and there's people
who have, you know, suspicions. Not not super surprising.

Speaker 13 (01:54:58):

Speaker 7 (01:54:58):
Political notes that these thre might be movable, though these
are not necessarily locked down opinions as quote, roughly a
third of all responders and independence said that they still
do not understand the details of the case. Well unquote,
so glorious, those are not really set in stone. And
Political also notes that there's a number of upcoming events

and variables that could change of the public's opinion before November,
you know, including all of the ongoing efforts by political
operatives to influence people of the public perception of both
the conviction and just you know, the election in general.

Speaker 2 (01:55:34):
The debates obviously too.

Speaker 7 (01:55:36):
The debates as well as Trump's sentencing in Manhattan on
July eleventh, which could possibly you know, entail a period
of incarceration. Probably not, but if it did, that would
that would certainly impact impact these numbers. And also Manhattan
Dish attorney Alvin Bragg's testimony before Congress on July twelfth.
This this, this could impact the numbers you know regarding

you know, how many people think this case is legit
versus how much peace think is just purely like a
political move. But still about half of adults do approve
of Trump's conviction. The AP did a poll with the
NORC a week after Trump's conviction, but before Hunter Biden
was convicted on that federal gun case, and uslts seems
more likely to support Trump's conviction than they are to disapprove,

with at least forty eight percent saying they approve and
just twenty nine somewhat or strongly disapproving and twenty one
you know, not approving or disapproving, to quote from the AP,
Republicans are less united on the verdict than Democrats. Roughly
six and ten Republicans disapprove, while fifteen percent approve the
other to and ten neither approve nor disapprove. Overall, opinions

on Trump have barely budged. About six and ten US
adults have an unfavorable opinion of Trump, just in line
from our findings in a poll conducted last February, four
in ten have a favorable view of Trump. When also
largely unchanged since February. The numbers are equally poor for Biden.
For and ten US adults have a favorable view of
the Democratic president, while six and ten have a negative

one unquote.

Speaker 2 (01:57:04):
Yeah, this is very much unique in races that I
can recall a race to the bottom, like who can alienate?
Who will alienate less of the base?

Speaker 7 (01:57:14):
Right, Like, yeah, no, we Polls consistently are showing that
there will be historically that there is historically low voter enthusiasm.
Both candidates have very low favorability ratings, and an NBC
poll found that sixty four percent of voters say that
they are very interested in this year's election, which is
a twenty year low, so, you know, not great numbers.

And a new CBS poll found that among young Americans
who did vote in twenty twenty, only three quarters to
say that they'll definitely do so again. Now this this
poll also does show that Trump's support among young voters
has been almost unchanged since twenty twenty.

Speaker 2 (01:57:53):
Yeah, he's done about two percent better, which is fairly
minimal considering how much Biden's lead is among that group.

Speaker 7 (01:58:00):
But overall, young voters do believe generally progressive values pretty consistently,
including support for a ceasefire.

Speaker 2 (01:58:08):
And that's i mean, part of the reason why we
may not see which could be catastrophic for Biden, because
twenty twenty a lot of his win came in the
fact that he did deliver so much of that, like
so many young voters came out, turnout was so high,
and they overwhelmingly supported Biden. There is also, i mean
kind of a reason why that might not wind up mattering,

which is where Biden I mentioned earlier. Biden does really
well among likely voters, much better than he does among
the general electorate. And this is part of a shift
among white voters with degrees that has been We get
a lot of talk and this has been significant, especially
like Latino voters shifting towards the GOP has been a

really important story too, but this one does not get
talked about as much. In the four years since Biden
took office, white men with degrees have shifted twenty four
points towards Biden, and he has gained nineteen points with
among white women with degrees, which is like a huge
amount of his support. And also that's one of the
groups that's likeliest to vote. Like the strength that Biden

has gained among kind of middle of the road leaning
conservative suburban voters is potentially going to be a cider
in this election.

Speaker 7 (01:59:21):
Yeah, and according to The New York Times and Sienna,
the polls do seem slightly skewed in Trump's favor actually
this year, mostly by disenfranchised voters who may not participate
in the upcoming election. And analysis they did found that
Biden had led the last three of their polls among
twenty twenty voters, but trailed among registered voters overall, which
is basically exactly what you're saying.

Speaker 2 (01:59:43):
You know, Garrison, speaking of likely voters, are I don't know,
that doesn't really lead. And here's the fucking ads. Look,
you don't get you don't get a good one. Every
time we do this, folks, there's too many.

Speaker 7 (01:59:56):
Are likely to listen to these ads.

Speaker 13 (01:59:58):
They're fine, So.

Speaker 10 (02:00:10):
We are back.

Speaker 7 (02:00:11):
Is polling actually useful? This actually useful anymore? The answer
is kind of. But you know, people have gotten really
really anti polling in recent years. You know, it's a
twenty sixteen elections certainly contributed to that. Although yeah, if
you look at the actual twenty sixteen polls, it's kind
of it's kind of interesting. In twenty sixteen, Clinton generally
pulled much higher than Trump for the duration of the race,

though in late July the two were neck and neck,
with the gap closing once again in late September and
the week of the election, Trump was on average trailing
by less than three point five percent behind, which is
often in the margin of error for these polls, and
pollsters usually consider something under three percent being a toss up.
Now this is three point five percent, so still is

it was trending towards Clinton, and there's there is reasons
why in terms of their polling methodology that was flawed,
But the polls were actually a bit closer than I
think what public perception seems to remember of the twenty
sixteen polls.

Speaker 2 (02:01:09):
Yes, and this is a part of why the public
memory of twenty sixteen and to an extent, twenty twenty
and to an extent every election is shown so bad
is you can't emphasize this enough. People are dogshit and
understanding what poles say, right. They are really bad at
understanding uncertainty. One of the things that I hate to

keep going back to the Nate silver Well, but I
think he's a fascinating case study. And one of the
things he pointed out after twenty sixteen. The minute you
have a forecast where there's less certainty, people don't like that.
The minute you have a forecast that doesn't have a
Democrat winning, they don't like that very much. And it's
to point out, like his he kind of started to
become a heel as soon as he started showing that

like Trump had a real shot at winning, and as
his as his forecast continue to show kind of weakness
among the Democrats, it got people angrier and angrier. And
that's most of what makes people determine whether or not
something is a credible source on the election. And that's
kind of why a lot of this is like a
doomed effort, is because people consider, you know, an expert

credible if they are saying something they want to hear,
because most of what people want in terms of election
polling is to feel reassured that things are going to
be okay, right, and that's that's your kind of It's
always like a confirmation bias game. And it's also one
of those things where, like the instant you do well,
if you are legitimately a rigorous, you know, expert, and

you predict things correctly, you're going to suddenly be this
focus of so much media attention and have so much
money and job offers thrown your way that it will
inherently drive you mad, which is part of why again,
I am predicting a twenty nine percent chance that things
are basically the way they wear in twenty twenty, so
I can get all that sweet, sweet CNN money, you know,
if I wind up being right. I am curious, Scaris

and kind of in that line because as our as
our official poll expert, you kind of came into this,
I don't think with a strong set of biases about
what would happen when you actually started drilling down into
the numbers, did that change it all your impression of
what was going on this election?

Speaker 7 (02:03:17):
I think I thought that the numbers for Biden would
be slightly worse. I think that's kind of the general feeling,
and that has been you know, what the numbers have
kind of looked like in my cursory glances the past
few months. But looking more into kind of polling science,
what these pollsters are are saying the gap is usually
within this three percent, that it feels like it's going

to be a very close election. It'll be much closer
than it was in twenty twenty. Poles thought that twenty
twenty would be a much much more obvious win for Biden.
It was, it was, it was a closer election than
what people thought. But this I think will be even
even closer. So it's it's gonna be it's gonna be
a tricky one. We're going to be kind of on
the edge of our seat come.

Speaker 2 (02:03:58):
From election night, which is what no one wants to hear, right, No,
especially since you have this, You have a lot of
people who want to hear Biden is doomed because they have,
for generally good reasons, come to despise Biden over the
last totally four years, and they just want to know
that like the things they're angry about matter, And the
thing that I all I can say to those people

is like, I don't know that anything matters. And I
do think there's a really good chance. I think this
is basically a coin flip.

Speaker 7 (02:04:27):
Yeah, And I think you know, polling is is going
to look very different this year because Trump is not
the incumbent. I think there's a lot of other factors
that are contributing to the polls, and pollsters have adjusted
a lot since twenty sixteen, to make sure that more
Trump support is accounted for both in twenty twenty and
in twenty sixteen. The error did not come from overestimating

the support of Clinton and Biden. It came from underestimating
Trump's support. And this has been fixed fixed for via
a number a number of methods. You know, there's certain
theories people have had, like the quote unquote shy Trump
voter theory, which is kind of largely disputed, of saying
that you know.

Speaker 2 (02:05:09):
People certainly by this fucking point.

Speaker 7 (02:05:12):
Yes, no, saying that people who like support Trump are
too scared to tell pollsters that they support Trump, quite
quite silly. It's essentially it's essentially blaming, blaming, like pull
errors on people just lying to polsters because they're too nervous. So,
I don't know, there's a lot of other stuff we have.
We have adjusted for white, non college educated voters, you know,

because people who have a college degree are more likely
to respond to polls. So all this does get adjusted for,
especially since twenty sixteen, because that was the main cause
of the polls kind of being fucked up that year.
So what exactly happened in twenty twenty, Then if these
things like the not in college vote and the shy
Trump voter theory were sort of adjusted for well, a

few things happened. The pandemic one, you know, made certain
pulling things. Ure's a little bit unique. The election also
featured the highest number of voter turnout in decades, something
that we're probably not expected to see in twenty twenty four.
In twenty twenty, the national polls were too favorable to
Biden by three point nine points, state polls by four
point three. I'm going to read a report from the

American Association for Public Opinion Research analyzing twenty twenty election
poll errors.

Speaker 2 (02:06:24):

Speaker 7 (02:06:24):
If the voter's most supportive of Trump were least likely
to participate in polls, then the polling error may be
explained as follows. Self identified Republicans who choose to respond
to polls are more likely to support Democrats, and those
who choose not to respond to polls are more likely
to support Republicans. Even if the correct percentage of self
identified Republicans were polled, differences in the Republicans who did

and did not respond could produce the observed polling error unquote.
If this was indeed the issue, it was probably made
worse by Trump in twenty twenty by being very disparaging
to polls, making his base probably less likely to honestly
engage with polling metrics, and both in twenty sixteen and
twenty twenty there was large large post mortems among the

polling community trying to figure out how to improve, and
twenty twenty two's polls were more accurate than any election
since nineteen ninety eight, with almost no bias towards either party.
So that is a good side in terms of the
accuracy of polls.

Speaker 2 (02:07:29):
This not being nonsense, Yeah.

Speaker 7 (02:07:31):
Correct, So a poster named Nathaniel Rackitch said, quote, polls
true utility isn't telling us who will win, but rather
in roughly how close a race is and therefore how
confident we should be in the outcome. Historically, candidate's leading
polls by at least twenty points have won in ninety
nine percent of the time, but candidate's leading polls may
less than three points have won just fifty five percent
of the time. Unquote, And that kind of lines up

with our current situation, right, Biden was even though the
polls were slightly skewed towards Biden in twenty twenty, he
was so far ahead that most of the polls in
terms of saying who would win, we're still correct because
Biden was just so far ahead this time. That will
not be the case. That's not that's not what the
polls are going to say. The polls are going to
show this being a much closer race, and that I
think that is what it's going to be come come November.

So yeah, that's kind of that's kind of the low
down of the current the current polling situation. I'll be
curious to see, you know, what the numbers are post
debate and especially after the sentencing in July.

Speaker 2 (02:08:27):
Yeah, we'll see. And I should note that Nate Silver
just released his official forecast today and it's it's almost
the opposite of that. We're German Man, who gave Biden
a seventy five percent chance of winning, Nate gives Trump
a sixty five percent chance of winning. So we are
going to see which of the election pundits who make

their entire living off of gambling on elections winds up
getting to be fetted on all of the talk shows
in like January of twenty twenty five. That'll be That's
why I'll toss up honestly, thereal'll toss up a helmet
versus Nate Baby, who's gonna win? I kind of think
they both might be common. Oh yeah, that wasn't the

opening of the podcast, or unless it was. I guess
it was because we were recording Welcome to It could
happen here, Harrison. I had to open an episode about
a terrible, terrible piece of voice acting history with some
horrible voice acting of my own. It was the only
right way.

Speaker 7 (02:09:40):
It's true, it's true, but there has been some really
bad voice acting going around lately. Yes, oh boy, So
do you know what we're gonna talk about today, Robert.
We're gonna talk about the South Park of X.

Speaker 2 (02:09:54):
And I know what you're all wondering, what the fuck
is X? Did you guys? Is that a placeholder? Did
you like type in a placeholder because you forgot the
name of what this is? The South Park of or whatever? No, no, no,
we're talking about Twitter.

Speaker 7 (02:10:09):
We are talking about the first animated sit slash calm
on X Slash Twitter, titled The New Norm Show. Not
to be confused with the twenty twenty two low budget
movie The New Norm. This is a new animated project
from the Great Minds over at Dave Rubin Incorporated. Yeah,

was so bad but also so insightful that I did
a whole bunch of drugs and wrote about two thousand
words about this project and uncovered some kind of shocking
things that we will slowly get into. I first just
want to go over the mini pilot itself, because right
now the only thing that's out is like this three

minute or so little mini pilot, And we'll get into
why this is the only thing that's out right now,
but I'm first just want to do kind of like
a short play by play, and it will be short
because it again, it's only three minutes. Yeah, of what
happens in this new perspective animated sitcom that they want
to air on Twitter dot com now known as x Yes. So,

I think the first thing you need to know about it,
you know, besides you know, the Dave rubenness of it all,
it looks like early two thousands flash animation, like really
bad early two thousands flash animation. It's not good.

Speaker 2 (02:11:27):
It's not good. None of the characters can like really
express things, and the perspective is always a little bit off. Yeah,
it looks like something like a moderately competent person could
have animated in this course of an afternoon if the
people paying them did not actually want anything that looked
very good.

Speaker 7 (02:11:46):
Well, and I think that is kind of what happened.
They posted one video showing the animating process, and it
does look like this one person did it in like
a day. So anyway, it starts with an older man
sitting in a living room chair scratching at an ankle monitor.
He reaches for a beer, only to find that it's
been wokefied with rainbow packaging. The man reacts in horror,
and his more liberal daughter remarks progress, it's the new norm,

and then a pandering a country music theme song plays,
which we will we will play for you later just
because it's so bad.

Speaker 2 (02:12:16):
We're going to have to. I want to start just
because this is the first shot of the episode and
it was the first thing in the episode that made
me very angry. And it's how small his feet are, like,
especially if you're going to have.

Speaker 7 (02:12:31):
The fact rob Lyfield feet.

Speaker 2 (02:12:33):
He's got the rob Lyfield feet. And it's this is
particularly a problem because the ankle monitor doesn't look like
it's going to be a one off joke, because he
doesn't just have an ankle monitor he has like an
evil Amazon alexa that looks a little bit like it's
been it's gotten some howl nine thousand DNA in it. Yes,
that every time he says something that's not woke enough,

it it yells at him, right.

Speaker 7 (02:12:56):
It is offensive? Offensive?

Speaker 2 (02:12:58):
Yeah, yeah, the fantasy progressive government that is in charge
in his in this cartoon world has forced him to
wear an ankle monitor because he's not woke enough. And
so I'm guessing that's going to be a recurrent bit.
And if has this sension ankle monitor is a recurrent bit,
his feet shouldn't look like the ankle monitor should always

be falling off of them. No, it's so loose. It's
so really bad animation, right, Like, I'm not even saying
that's a good bit, But if that's your bit, you
have to actually design the characters to sell the bit,
as opposed to me constantly thinking how is that fucking
ankle monitor staying on his goddamn ankle anyway, whatever.

Speaker 7 (02:13:36):
The character was not designed with the ankle monitor in mind.
That was a later edition, so definitely. After the theme song,
the man addresses the audience, he says, I'm the old
norm I want normal beer.

Speaker 2 (02:13:48):
God damn it.

Speaker 7 (02:13:50):
And I just want to point out this is like
the only character that gets an introduction. We don't really
learned almost anyone else's names, except for one other character,
which he's just great, great for like a pilot. Anyway,
So he steps towards his front door and the ankle
monitor starts beeping. He blames his liberal daughter for being
put on house arrest for quote unquote threatening the school board,

which he says he did because the school was quote
brainwashing kids into thinking girls aren't girls and men aren't men.
His daughter says, sometimes they're neither or both, or dressed
like dogs. Anyway, his wife comes home.

Speaker 2 (02:14:25):
Oh god, yeah, there's a real furry obsession in this
EPI this show. I guess we'll talk about that later too, because.

Speaker 7 (02:14:33):
This was birth years ago. This is not like a
modern current take on WOKESM. But his wife comes home
and with her is someone wearing a COVID mask sporting
a pink mohawk. And here I'm going to play our
first clip.

Speaker 12 (02:14:48):
What's that worrying?

Speaker 14 (02:14:50):
Actually that is one of my pronouns. Also, they them
and me?

Speaker 15 (02:14:56):
Your non binary?

Speaker 12 (02:14:59):
How do you know that word?

Speaker 5 (02:15:00):
I learned it in school.

Speaker 12 (02:15:02):
That's why I'm locked up.

Speaker 1 (02:15:04):

Speaker 15 (02:15:04):
The judge agreed to conditional parole.

Speaker 12 (02:15:07):
What condition?

Speaker 4 (02:15:10):
Where is my room?

Speaker 12 (02:15:12):
That's saying here?

Speaker 15 (02:15:15):
Chaz is part of a new government program.

Speaker 14 (02:15:17):
To re educate homophobic, transphobic, racist Charlie.

Speaker 12 (02:15:23):
Finally someone normal.

Speaker 10 (02:15:25):
I don't understand your word?

Speaker 12 (02:15:29):
Did that?

Speaker 2 (02:15:31):
Just black whisper?

Speaker 12 (02:15:32):
You're his friend and boss.

Speaker 7 (02:15:35):
So something that isn't fully conveyed just through the sound
is that when the daughter finds out that this new
person is non binary, she gets like big, big, like
lovey eyes.

Speaker 2 (02:15:44):

Speaker 7 (02:15:44):
And the black boss character, he is played by failed
politician Larry Elder, and he's my.

Speaker 2 (02:15:52):
God, that's Larry Elder. Yes, Oh that's funny. That's so funny.
He's just there to show that black people like Norm, right, yes, exactly,
that the progressives actually are racist for not liking Norm
because the only black person they're going to put in
this show thinks that he's rad. It's just a normal

thing that you do if you're a right wing hack
making a low budget cartoon. He is wearing, by the way,
a Washington Redskins hat and shirt, and his.

Speaker 7 (02:16:22):
Shirt discontinued four years ago.

Speaker 2 (02:16:25):
Yeah, and his first his opening line in the show
is him coming in and saying, I come over here
to escape woke.

Speaker 7 (02:16:32):

Speaker 2 (02:16:33):
Yeah. One thing I do think is interesting is that
both this character, because Larry Elder makes a note that
like his son is about to transition and is at
least non binary, they don't really know what any of
this means. So a little bit of the script is
unclear as to what these kids actually how they identify.
And obviously Norm's daughter is I don't know if she's

non binary or just like into a like generally queer,
but like that is the impression you're left with. And again,
if you actually were someone who was kind of conservative,
conservative sympathetic, like Mike Judge making like a cartoon, you
can actually get some mileage out of the accepting the
idea that like, Okay, you've got these curmudgeonly older people

and you've got their kids who are like way more
open about this kind of stuff, and there's there's there's
room for plots as King of the Hill did pretty
well that kind of lampoon the culture in general, but
it requires a little more self awareness. Like again, if
there was a little bit you might wonder, like, what
are we saying if we're the people making this right

wing piece of propaganda that all of the young people
feel very differently about gender than their parents.

Speaker 7 (02:17:44):
Well, yeah, that's why Norm keeps saying, I'm the old Norm.
I want to bear. And the show was called The
New Norm, not to be confused with the nineteen ninety
nine ABC sympcom storing Norm MacDonald called it the Norm Shows.
It's literally right, it's literally in the name. It's about
you know how these people cannot cannot accept that times
change and they slowly get outdated social beliefs. Anyway, every

single time that Norm addresses the non binary character, referring
to them as pronoun or that his little AI Amazon
assistant just bleeps out offensive. Offensive.

Speaker 15 (02:18:20):
Jazz is here to re educate Norm.

Speaker 12 (02:18:23):
In non bonary studies.

Speaker 4 (02:18:27):
I'm allergic to dogs.

Speaker 2 (02:18:29):
It's okay.

Speaker 15 (02:18:30):
Billy is an emotional support dog and non binary.

Speaker 4 (02:18:34):
Oh okay, then good dog.

Speaker 7 (02:18:37):
Just amazing voice acting in that cliff and with a
helpful laugh track, so you know what is a joke
and when you're supposed to laugh, which is so embarrassing
for an animated sycom to put on a laugh track,
like oh my god, oh my god.

Speaker 2 (02:18:53):
It smacks of desperation because nobody really liked nobody misses
laugh tracks.

Speaker 7 (02:18:59):
Laugh tracks are like if you have a live studio audience,
you know, a laugh track kind of like makes sense.
This is this is an animated sitcom. It's like if
there's a laugh track on like Rick and Morty or
like the Simpsons, like what the fuck are you doing?

Speaker 2 (02:19:12):

Speaker 7 (02:19:12):
Anyway, The two men sit down to watch sports, and
Larry Elder laments that a non binary person is present
in the room and starts complaining about his child.

Speaker 16 (02:19:22):
I come here to get away from woke trouble at home.
Ah my boy or whatever it calls themselves now is
thinking about transitioning that try Regina transitioning to what.

Speaker 7 (02:19:37):
Another humble whatever it calls them theself now amazing pronoun
usage another fumble now. Norm tosses the gay beer to Chaz,
the non binary character.

Speaker 2 (02:19:47):
Of Jazz, Uh Chaz.

Speaker 7 (02:19:50):
Chaz fumbles the catch and says, and that's not.

Speaker 2 (02:19:53):
Even that's not a gay zoomer name. Chazz is like
something like, that's that's gen x Chazz totally yeah, well.

Speaker 7 (02:20:02):
Again because this is all made by gen x people.

Speaker 2 (02:20:06):
Yeah, exactly, Yes.

Speaker 7 (02:20:07):
Chaz fumbles the catch and says that they can't drink
because they're not twenty one, and Larry Elder replies, y'all
influence my boy and to cut off his junk, but
draw the line at beer, and then Chaz hides behind
the couch to call upper level government operatives who are
advising them on this re education assignment.

Speaker 12 (02:20:27):
I got it.

Speaker 2 (02:20:28):
Before we get into this, I want to start with
what doesn't make sense about that bit, which is that
if Chaz was straight edge, right, and they were kind
of chickin, if they actually knew anything about like the
real sort of culturals kind of divides that are coming
in around gen Z and gen Alfa, they could have
made a point that like, yeah, this generation of kids
doesn't get drunk and do drugs the way like millennials did,

and that's an actual like cultural cleavage point. But Chaz
is not straight edge. Chas is just saying I cannot
legally drink beer.

Speaker 7 (02:20:57):
Which right, no gay person has ever.

Speaker 2 (02:20:59):
Seen, which no game.

Speaker 7 (02:21:01):
But it like the fact that unless unless they're straight edge, Yeah.

Speaker 2 (02:21:04):
Larry Elder then comes in and says like, oh, this
is a characteristic but it wasn't like a characteristic of
you queer gen z kids. But the queer gen Z
kid did not express that as like a characteristic of
his identity. He was just stating this is illegal.

Speaker 7 (02:21:18):
Because it's illegal. Yeah, very yeah.

Speaker 2 (02:21:20):
Anyway, anyway, when.

Speaker 7 (02:21:22):
Chaz is conference calling with this this upper level government
we have, we have this general in like a in
like a kink dog mask who barks, and there's a
trans woman admiral who says, find a way to break him,
maybe we can fix the country. I believe the admiral
is a really transphobic character of US Assistant Secretary for

Health Rachel Levine. And yeah, it's not even a good character.

Speaker 2 (02:21:47):
It's just it's just it doesn't look like at all
there is.

Speaker 7 (02:21:49):
There's also another another character which Robert identified as a
possible hate crime and and tasked me with locating who
this person is. And I leave with about one hundred
percent certainty that this is a character of Sam Brinton,
who was appointed the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Spent Fuel
and Waste Disposition in the.

Speaker 2 (02:22:10):
Office Nuclear Energy. Are you kidding me?

Speaker 7 (02:22:13):
Apartment of Energy?

Speaker 12 (02:22:14):

Speaker 2 (02:22:14):
Ah, these people are so fucking conservative social media brain,
what are you fucking come on?

Speaker 7 (02:22:21):
Brinton may be well known to some of our listeners
as being let go in late twenty twenty two after
being linked to a series of airport luggage thefts. One
of the funniest things that's ever happened. This person could
not stop stealing luggage from airports so much that they
got fired from the Department of Energy.

Speaker 2 (02:22:42):
That's amazing.

Speaker 7 (02:22:43):
This this goes back to like twenty eighteen years. God,
there's funny years of airport It's so funny. But again,
if this was a good comedy thing, they would have
some kind of bit like maybe maybe they would be
holding like a like a like a you know, like
a collection of luggage. But no, they're just they're they're
just they're just standing behind the Progress Pride flight Like
that's it. Like it's not funny.

Speaker 2 (02:23:03):
Yeah, because again, because the actual funny thing about this
would be to have like your government character be someone
at the Department of Energy who got taxed with this
through some sort of incoherent DEI narrative and also a
character trait as they are always stealing luggage, and like
you could actually be bits around that over time. But
they just they threw all these people in knowing that

like the two hundred people who are as right wing
online as them would get who all these were as
opposed to doing the thing that you would do if
you were actually making a show for mainstream consumption, which
is like make fun of people that the audience will recognize.
Throw with Joe Biden in there right, like obviously you're
doing this in twenty twenty four, Like where is anyone

that someone who's not completely lost their mind to this
stuff will recognize?

Speaker 7 (02:23:50):
And this is this is the climax of the pilot.
It's it's so, it's so bad. After Chaz has this
little phone call, the fake camera zooms back to show
a fake animated studio audience, and the bad country theme
song plays once again, and and now now I will
play it for you, because this section is both so

pandering but also oddly genuine.

Speaker 8 (02:24:15):
Towards the end, newly same as you know, everythanks changing
and I don't know this will not Marri And thank
God for relungbows and.

Speaker 10 (02:24:34):
The ship those maids, it says the fall free speech.

Speaker 7 (02:24:40):
When the song goes, thank god for Elon Musk and
his ship, post memes he is the home for free speech,
and unvoiced animated Elon Musk pops through the door for
no reason.

Speaker 2 (02:24:54):
And he's someone. Someone on Twitter took a screen grab
off the Elon Musk and said they gave him that
in Smith look and he does look like one of
the fish people from Insmuth. That's not a flattering caricature.
I think it's meant to be.

Speaker 7 (02:25:09):
It is because like it's it's I don't know. This
is a really interesting moment because this is where it
gets like kind of like genuine. Jess Hawkin wrote, the
part that blows my mind about this video is the
Elon Musk cameo where the bitterness and resentment of the
video melts away into still believing in Santa Claus and

it gets it gets just so weirdly genuine with this,
with this like the kind of heartfelt, saccharine Elon Musk
ending Well.

Speaker 2 (02:25:36):
Speaking of genuine, Garrison, the main thing that's genuine is
our love of these sponsors.

Speaker 7 (02:25:53):
Okay, we are packed so there. After watching this pilot,
there's there's a lot of questions to be asked. Why
is there a fake animated studio audience? You know, pretty bad?
My friend Ellie Erman pointed out, like why is the
protagonist so unpleasant even in their perfect fantasy world? And
also why is the word sitcom hyphenated in the title

something that you don't do? Just a lot of a
lot of baffling things. So there was there was a
mix of reactions to this. You know, some of the
blue checks on Twitter were kind of lapping this stuff up.
One person with the username Amazing Gaming Productions wrote, I
know some people are critiquing it, but my fee once
and I laughed at a couple points. It's a good start.
I hope you continue to work on it. We need

all of the indie material we can create. And included
in this tweet is a picture of a very poorly
drawn avatar saying, Hi, my name is Indye David. I'm
here to fight Goliath. Mainstream Oh my God is a
gamer Gate two themed gaming company who wants to create

anti woke games. They've done in nothing. They just post
really bad artwork. And I cannot overstate how bad.

Speaker 2 (02:27:08):
Why his neck so wide and so long?

Speaker 7 (02:27:11):
For how bad the TV show's animation is this? This
reply was just so bad I had to point it out.
Just incredible.

Speaker 2 (02:27:17):

Speaker 7 (02:27:18):
Now, Dave Rubin, the possible alleged potential most likely creator
of the show, does air his work on Blaze TV,
you know by by uh by Glenn Beck, and even
even other Glenn Beck employees could not could not help
but point out how terrible this is.

Speaker 8 (02:27:37):

Speaker 7 (02:27:37):
Logan Hall, writer for Glenn Beck's The Blaze, wrote, quote,
TV shows on leftism the cringiest, most unwatchable, nauseating trash
ever created TV shows on conservatism, somehow even worse and
one of the most brain poisoned. Conservative cartoonists George Axopolos
basically like a discount Stone Toss wrote, quote, South Park

had ed this has as much edge as uncooked sour dough.
Between this and the Daily Wires limp cartoon, they may
as well be flushing money down the toilet. He then
went on to say, give me a small team, a
million dollars and total creative control, and we will make
a cartoon pilot that will melt faces. So again he
just wants to to get his own his own TV show,
but a whole bunch of these, you know, kind of

right wing cultural critics were we're not we're not infused
with this, with this outing because it's because it's really bad.
So I want to get into kind of who is
behind this now the full I hesitate to say creative team,
but the people by the same team. Yeah, the team
behind the New Norm Show. Not to be confused with

the Fox two season documentary show The New Norm have
been have been largely kept secret, possibly out of fears
of humiliation.

Speaker 2 (02:28:49):
Yeah, that's how you know it's a good show.

Speaker 7 (02:28:51):
But we at least do know some of the voice cast, right,
Larry Elder plays the token black conservative who only exists
to affirm that the main character isn't actually racist. Now,
I doubt Larry Elder has much involvement beyond lending his
voice and the other two confirmed voice Again, I hesitate
to use the word talent or even actor, but the
other two voice contributors are Dave Rubin and JP Sears.

Now I believe these two could be much more critical
to what makes up the comedy of The New Norm Show.
Not to be confused with the Oatly Oat Milk series
of online puppet shorts titled The New Norm anal show. Now,
I assume most people listening to this are familiar with
Dave Rubin. Like many of these right wing influencers, he's
a failed comedian turned political podcaster who's been positioning himself

further and further to the right over the course of
the last decade. Now, JP Sears was a quote unquote
holistic life coach who turned kind of into like a
YouTube skeptic type satirical comedian, and while trying to parody
new age WU and conspiracy theories, JP was peddling his
own pseudoscience and adopting more and more conspiratorial beliefs. Over time,

JP and his comedy began moving further and further to
the right. But the COVID nineteen lockdown was kind of
the breaking point where he went all in on anti vaxx,
COVID nineteen and January sixth conspiracy theories. But I think
there has to be at least one other contributor, you know,
behind like the art and design of the show, and
I can't I can't figure out who that is. I
scrolled through all of the tweets to try to find

out if this account had another name. I can't find
out who exactly this other person is. There is there
is one mystery, one mystery component. But one interesting thing
I did uncover is that the New Norm show, not
to be confused with the twenty twelve TV show The
New Normal, has been in production in some form for
over four years. They've been working on this for over

four years. There's one frame from a video titled Character
Sketch Evolutions posted on September nineteenth of last year, and
this show's project files stretching all the way back to
January of twenty twenty. They've been working on this since
January twenty twenty. Early sketches of the daughter feature and
Antifa and transgender tattoo on her left arm. Also she

has a kefia and posters that read Vegans for Palestine,
all all in twenty twenty artwork.

Speaker 2 (02:31:12):

Speaker 7 (02:31:13):
Yeah, yehow that's kind of fascinating because the daughter character
in the published pilot is just wearing like a hoodie
and like a beanie's. There's none of.

Speaker 2 (02:31:24):
These got like some bracelets that have like a there's
at least one off her bracelets has a rainbow on it,
which I think is the only queer signaling or like
kind of it really signaling of any kind that we get.
And she has an Apple Watch because lol gen z.
But yeah, the otherwise her design is completely boring, like
there's nothing going on.

Speaker 7 (02:31:43):
And I found this other, this other thing that is
maybe a little bit you know, behind the scenes, look
at what this may have been. So last March this
account posted a little comic strip saying I'll look at
how it began as a comic strip. So possibly this
may have originated as not being an animated series but

instead an online webcomic, which might explain a few things.
And also that I assume the mystery contributor that we
don't know probably was working on the webcomic and then
kind of rope gain more and more people the sated series.
But I am going to read out this webcomic just
because it is fascinatingly bad.

Speaker 2 (02:32:24):
Oh my god, Oh my god.

Speaker 7 (02:32:27):
Norm says, for twenty years our address was seven Columbus Ave.
Now it's callin Kaepernick Drive.

Speaker 2 (02:32:33):
That's his daughter saying.

Speaker 7 (02:32:35):
That, and everyone thinks I feel so. The mom says fancy,
the daughter says woke, and Norm says sick. And then
a whole bunch of news crews show up at Norm's
front door. They say, what's it like to live in
the most woke address in town? And Norman says, I
refuse to call it callin Kaepernick Drive. It's Columbus Av.
The news media says any last words before the angry

mob shows up. Should we call a fire department for you?
And Norman says, I thought you snowflakes defunded them too.
It's not even no, no one was talking about defunding
the fire department. Not true anyway.

Speaker 2 (02:33:08):
It's it's like it's just not even a joke, right,
like the the there's not like a release of tension
or anything with like the the end bit being like
him saying, why would we call the fire department he
defunded that? It's not It's like, it's not a joke.

Speaker 7 (02:33:22):
No, Like the last series of panels are even more disconnected. Yeah,
they are back inside the doors closed norm says Chloe,
which I guess is his daughter's name. Never said in
the pilot, Chloe, why must your generation change everything? And
then the doorbell rings delivery. The mom answers the door
and says, sorry, wrong address. This is now Colin Kaeprinick Drive.

Ben Affleck Boulevard is two streets down where James Woods
Parkway used to be.

Speaker 2 (02:33:48):
My god, that's what is that? Even that is that? Even?
Do you really like?

Speaker 13 (02:33:54):
Is it?

Speaker 7 (02:33:55):
They were okay James would get fallen. They replaced it
with ben Affleck Boulevard.

Speaker 2 (02:34:00):
If you could if you were someone who was like
kind of conservative but not completely brain poisoned, you could
actually get some good bits out of Like they changed
the name of this street from Columbus Avenue to Colin
kaepern to drive Now. The smart way to play off
of that would be to make it very clear that
the town has a bunch of existing issues with inequality
and racism that they have not dealt with in lieu

of changing the name of a single street and pretending
things are better. And you can actually, like there's things
you could do with that were you actually making comedy.
But like the fact that they the fact that the
escalation is rather than sort of like examining this world
and like why shit like this gets done just to
kind of like make these like performative gestures. Instead, it's like,

and next they're going to replace James Woods with ben Affleck?
Which therey good do the gen Z kids do the
progressives like ben Affleck? Does anyone feel all that strongly
about ben Affleck?

Speaker 7 (02:34:58):
No, we had to start naving street after ben Affleck. Also,
why would there be a James Woods Parkway anyway? Whatever?

Speaker 2 (02:35:05):
Yeah, who's naming a street after name a thing? James
Woods has been in like.

Speaker 7 (02:35:10):
Oh my god. So the marketing of this pilot is
even is almost as baffling as the pilot itself. Right,
there's a few slogans they like to use, first of all,
the South Park of X, which is already just brilliant,
it's hard, legalize humor, very very funny, and make America
funny again. They will often just tweet these phrases out

with no context, and sure, why not. The home page
on their website reads quote The New Norm. Not to
be confused with the ongoing podcast series. The New Norm
is an animated sitcom for our woke world, an edgy
yet family friendly comedy that shines a funny light on
today's most divisive issues and gives Americans a safe space

to come together and laugh. Just fantastic stuff.

Speaker 2 (02:36:00):
Great, great, I love again. I made a comment about this,
but I love that they're calling this the South Park
of X because like the South Park, guys would never
put a cartoon or anything else on X because they
actually make things that are commercially successful and so real
companies will buy their shows, whereas if you're putting something

on X, it means that there's no money in what
you're doing. It means that you your show is going
to be monetized alongside those ads for games that don't
exist that just show like boy like little action cartoon
characters leaping into the legs of like very horny drawings
of Gorgan's and shit and actual straight up pornography because

there is no money on.

Speaker 7 (02:36:44):
X Family friendly so funny. Now, there are a few
reviews that they post on the new norm website. Bill
Mahers has brilliant, Dave Rubins has beautiful, Larry Elders has relevant,
timely and funny men and Kevin.

Speaker 2 (02:37:01):
He's literally in.

Speaker 7 (02:37:02):
He's one of the voices, so is Steve Ruben and
Kevin Sorbo says All in the Family for our time. Wow, Robert, Well,
what is All in the Family? Because I am a zooming.

Speaker 2 (02:37:16):
I need you explain a couple of things. All in
the Family was a groundbreaking sitcom show from like fifteen
or twenty years before you were born.

Speaker 7 (02:37:25):
Even longer than that, I mean it was like it
was like the seventies.

Speaker 2 (02:37:27):
Right, yeah, oh shit, it was like thirty or forty
years before you were born.

Speaker 7 (02:37:31):
Yes, it's way way before my time. It's before your time.

Speaker 2 (02:37:35):
Yes, yes, it is, and uh, Kevin Sorbo. Do you
know who Kevin Sorbo was?

Speaker 7 (02:37:41):
Even Robert I grew up watching Christian movies. I am
intimately familiar with Kevin Sorboh.

Speaker 2 (02:37:48):
Okay, okay, but I know why he actually got famous.
He was, yes, in a show that again predates your existence.

Speaker 7 (02:37:56):
But it's now just your bad Christian actor. Now, these
reviews are funny, not only because two of these people
giving reviews on the site are literally in the pilot,
but also let's look at the Bill Maher quote brilliant.
Do you think Bill Maher has seen this pilot?

Speaker 11 (02:38:13):

Speaker 13 (02:38:13):
I don't.

Speaker 7 (02:38:14):
He hasn't.

Speaker 12 (02:38:15):

Speaker 7 (02:38:15):
Do you know why? Of course, because underneath the text
that says in quotes brilliant, it says brilliant Bill Maher,
HBO Real Time Host, And then in much smaller text,
it says, speaking of the show creator's previous work featured
on HBO, he's just talking about Dave Rubin being interviewed
on his show. At some point Bill Maher said brilliant

to Dave Rubin, And now they're using this as a
quote endorsing this show.

Speaker 12 (02:38:43):

Speaker 2 (02:38:43):
I kind of I feel like, so fifteen years or
so ago, back when he was still alive. Roger Ebert
shared one of my articles that I wrote for Cracked,
and I kind of want to take his feedback on
that and claim that, like like dress it up his
feedback for our podcast. Yeah, Roger Hebert loves this show

that was made ten years after he died. Well he doesn't,
but he said something nice about something else I did
a long time ago, so I think he would support.

Speaker 7 (02:39:13):
Show creator's previous work. It's amazing. And I we will
return to the Kevin Sorbo quote about All in the
Family for our time. Yes again, Like this isn't even
just a parody of like All in the Family. They're
they're taking certain they're they're taking certain elements, but but
not like actually satirizing them. They're just kind of doing
them again. And do you know what we're gonna do again, Robert,

good ads, We're gonna, we are, we gonna, We're gonna
go to add.

Speaker 2 (02:39:38):
We're going We're going to transition, which the people who
make this show would really hate.

Speaker 7 (02:39:53):
Okay, we are back. I have a few images from
the from the marketing of this that you're gonna love.

Speaker 12 (02:40:00):

Speaker 7 (02:40:00):
Back in September, the New Norm shows. Twitter posted this
picture It's a very bad cardoon Mike god, Ben Shapiro,
Tucker Carlson, and Joe Rogan.

Speaker 2 (02:40:10):
What are these?

Speaker 7 (02:40:12):
It has one like and textra says who is your
fav street A small they made bit Shapiro and Joe Rogan. Oh,
and there is another another image of Norm the titular
character saying thank you Chaya Wrycheck and Elon Musk for
the freedom to say amen. Now that the word amen

was undemonetized. So most of their marketing kind of look
kind of looks like this. It's just it's talking about
other more popular right wing content creators or just praising
Elon Musk. That is most of the marketing for the show.
It seems their primary marketing strategy seems to be sucking
up to Elon Musk to attract attention from him and
his fan base. Now, I haven't seen anyone else talking

about this yet, but the New Norm Show, not to
be confused with the New Norm McDonald Show, actually released
their first video project last March. It was titled Elon
Musk xaoc ai Animation unquote what, with show creator Dave
Rubin saying the future of animation is AI The video

starts with an AI image of Elon Musk in a
black suit, with voiceover of Norm A dressing Musk saying, Hey, Elon,
check this out. We cut to a congressional deposition where
AOC is questioning Elon Musk, who is wearing a spacesuit
about him, replying, quote unquote true to a meme posted

by Norm saying that AOC is hot but not smart.

Speaker 2 (02:41:44):
Mister Musk, call me Elon.

Speaker 7 (02:41:49):
There's a slow motion love heart sequence of Elon and
AOC staring at each other, and Elon says, I have
a hands on approach to the world's population crisis.

Speaker 15 (02:41:58):
You'll never get your hands up on me. I'm boycotting you.

Speaker 12 (02:42:03):
Then go yourself.

Speaker 2 (02:42:06):
God, he looks like a cherub in that spacesuit.

Speaker 11 (02:42:09):
What is so?

Speaker 5 (02:42:10):

Speaker 7 (02:42:10):
Here, here's here's Ai Norm and AI Elon Musk sitting
in this courtroom.

Speaker 6 (02:42:15):

Speaker 7 (02:42:16):
Norm says that it's because of Elon's reply quote that
millions of people saw my post. So in this in
this like little to no effort AI short, they straight
up lay out their intentions behind all of this, clamoring
for Musk's attention and approval.

Speaker 11 (02:42:31):

Speaker 7 (02:42:32):
Their goal is that if Elon Musk can see their stuff,
maybe he'll spread it and it will be popular. That's
the intention.

Speaker 2 (02:42:40):
A nine year old boy, Oh yeah.

Speaker 5 (02:42:41):
He does.

Speaker 7 (02:42:42):
He does look like like cherub Elon Musk. Absolutely yeah.
But so this is this is their entire strategy, right,
It's to make content that they hope Elon Musk will
see and then boost so that people will give them money.
That's that's the entirety of the bit. In the replies
to this AI short film, everyone who like expressed that
they liked it, saying like so funny or just like
a laugh emoji. The norm account replied to every single

one of these tweets with a thumbs up emoji. That's it,
I got, that's that's it, like sometimes with a flaming
thumbs up, sometimes with a regular thumb up emoji, but
replying to every single tweet they just did a thumbs up.
It's so it's so lazy, like like.

Speaker 2 (02:43:19):
Content goes out. That's some intern who's getting paid by
there in like or if they're getting paid or whatever,
however they're getting evaluated. They want to be able to
claim that they were doing lots of work. So yeah,
they're just going through and thumbs uping every post. That's
my wild So.

Speaker 7 (02:43:36):
This is all kind of reminiscent of The Daily Wire's
own animated comedy, mister Burcham right now, mister Burchram, we
talked about in our in our in our Daily Wire
episodes earlier this year, but it was it was pitched
to Fox, like over a decade ago. They even made
a ten minute animatic. Fox passed, and so did every
other network and streaming service also declined to pick up

the project until until it came across Jeremy Boring's desk
a few years ago.

Speaker 2 (02:44:03):
And Jeremy Bowring said, Adam Carolla, that's who the kids
love these days.

Speaker 7 (02:44:09):
So yeah, they green lit the show and it is
now airing on The Daily Wire Plus. But most of
the jokes are super outdated because again this was pitched
ten years ago, over ten years ago, so there's a
wholench of just like vegan jokes, Like it's jokes that
maybe would have been transgressive in twenty eleven.

Speaker 11 (02:44:27):
You know.

Speaker 7 (02:44:27):
Of course, there's like there's like a few updated jokes
thrown in there, but like not many. So in terms
of the New Norm show, not to be confused with
the many other projects with the same title, only the
three minute pilot episode is out right now right. They
are soliciting more money and that's the main drive of
putting out this pilot is that they are spreading around

this donation link like crazy. They've explicitly said when does
the first episode drop? Soon but sooner if y'all give
here with the donation link.

Speaker 2 (02:44:56):

Speaker 7 (02:44:57):
Two other tweets read quote support this show to animate
the first season, and support this show and help fight
the woke mind virus with laughter unquote. I don't think
this will actually ever get made because no one's gonna
support this because it's garbage.

Speaker 2 (02:45:11):
This is like that reddap Family an FT cartoon exactly,
which I'm still hard well.

Speaker 7 (02:45:15):
That they're doing is trying to get you know, like
unfortunate souls to donate money to this, and uh, I
don't think the right wing billionaires are going to be
funding this the same way they fund other Daily Wire projects.
So this seems kind of dead in the water. This
seems like it, you know, not much thought was put
into it. It's lazy. It's also completely stealing a Simpson's

joke from nineteen ninety nine. This is the big thing
I discovered. So I've been trying to watch more nineties
Simpson lately, Good for You, Good for You, Solid Move,
And as I was watching the three minute pilot, something
started to feel a little bit familiar. And then I
read the Kevin Sorbo review All in the Family for
Our Time, and I realized something. This whole show is

just stealing a cutaway gag from a nineteen ninety nine
Simpsons episode about a fake sitcom called All in the
Family nineteen ninety nine, in which a new, more woke
and inclusive a version of the original show is airing
on TV. And here's a collection of images Robert in
my Google document that shows early concept art of Norm

looking exactly like the main character of.

Speaker 12 (02:46:28):
Yeah, Down with the Cigar.

Speaker 7 (02:46:31):
It literally, the picture of him in the chair looks traced.
It is the exact same. There is a diverse cast.

Speaker 2 (02:46:38):
And standing next to him exactly the woman's study major
in her birkenstocks exactly. It got a Rabbi in there
as opposed to the which is some nineties diversity. Colm.
But like, and I remember that bit too, which is
like a it's actually a because there were conservatives writing
on the Simpsons in the nineties, one of the John Schwartzwelder,

was like a famous libertarian, like he's a but he's
also like funny, and so they made a good bit
about like pec like the rash of like overtly politically
correct shows right like it's it's it's a it's a
fun little aside joke that Schwartzwelder was enough of a
comedian to know is good for about six seconds exactly.

Speaker 7 (02:47:23):
And I will play those six seconds right now and
at nine thirty All in the Family nineteen ninety nine.

Speaker 14 (02:47:29):
Who geez did he got me living with an African American,
a semi American, and a woman American there.

Speaker 7 (02:47:36):
And I'm glad I loved you so all, I love everybody.

Speaker 2 (02:47:39):
I wish i'd shaved my money from the first show.

Speaker 12 (02:47:42):

Speaker 17 (02:47:42):
See, there's there's, there's there's a couple of different jokes there. Yeah,
there's multiple jokes in that three seconds or so. It's
such a good layered joke on the part of the Simpsons.
It has the parody of Archie from All in the
Family kind of being like offensive in an old fashioned way,
you know, bemoaning that he has to be around all

these people, but also saying that he loves everyone in
the way that these kind of shows like to play
both sides by showing the main character is still good
nature despite his faults, and then he flips again saying
he's he's only come back to do the show because
he needs money. The bit doesn't overstate it's welcome, it
lasts only like ten seconds, and yet is infinitely more
funny than the entirety of this three minute pilot, And

Dave Rubin actually thought he could just rip off a
shore to obscure Simpson's joke and stretch it into an
entire show and no one would notice. So I was
really happy to find that this was just stealing an
old Simpson's joke really poorly too.

Speaker 7 (02:48:40):
And because I've been watching more older Simpsons, I've also
realized that a lot of the jokes and ladyballers are
also just completely stolen from Simpsons, but ripped of the
context that makes them funny. So all of these like
right wing like cranks we're trying to produce this comedy stuff,
they're all just kind of going back to old Simpson's
jokes that people, hopefully you have like forgotten and are

injecting them without the actual humorous context into all these
anti woke projects. And it doesn't work. It simply doesn't.
For one, it's plagiarizing, and the second and and like
secondly it's it's just bad. But yes, I will I
will post some of these comparison pictures on h on
my Twitter at Hungry bow Tie if you want to
see the uh, the shocking, shocking hard works.

Speaker 2 (02:49:26):
That was a fine investigation, Garrison, because you're definitely right,
like this is this is a carbon copy of of
a cutaway gag about all in the family. That's so
fucking funny.

Speaker 7 (02:49:37):
Even the background house is the same look. They have,
the staircase the same the door, like it's everything is
in the exact same position.

Speaker 2 (02:49:47):
It's wild.

Speaker 7 (02:49:48):
I know they said this.

Speaker 2 (02:49:50):
They sent this to an animator, like they sent that
screen grab to the animated That's so funny. God, this
The Simpsons was such a good show and its golden
years that people are still trying to competently rip it off,
and again they compare themselves to like the South Park
of X. South Park even did a much better job
of ripping off The Simpsons and making that be the

focus of an episode that like everyone rips off the
Simpsons because of how the long they've been going on,
Like yeah, anyway, whatever.

Speaker 7 (02:50:18):
They were smart enough to remove the cigar in the
final pilot, but all because because that would be just
so obvious. But all the concept ared that they've posted
on Twitter, like half a year ago has has him
with a cigar wearing a white button up shirt and it.

Speaker 2 (02:50:32):
Looks it is it is.

Speaker 7 (02:50:34):
It is almost traced. It is like, yeah, his his
his arm.

Speaker 2 (02:50:37):
They threw on the vests distract.

Speaker 7 (02:50:40):
It's it's phenomenal. So yeah, amazing stuff from Dave Rubin.
He I guess shouldn't have quit interning at the at
A at John Stewart back in the two thousands. Maybe
maybe he could have had a better life, but instead,
instead we get this, so great job, Dave Rubin. I
wish you only the best in your future creative works.

Speaker 2 (02:51:00):
Yeah, this is what's going to get him that plush
writing gig on the Rick and Morty season. I don't
know whatever the next one is. I'm sure he's on
the cusp.

Speaker 7 (02:51:09):
Oh he's close to breaking through. I can feel it.

Speaker 2 (02:51:12):
Yeah yeah, all right, right, well I'm glad. I'm gonna
go watch some classic Simpsons again.

Speaker 10 (02:51:18):
Thank you.

Speaker 2 (02:51:18):
For reminding me. Hey, We'll be back Monday with more
episodes every week from now until the heat death of
the Universe.

Speaker 10 (02:51:28):
It Could Happen Here as a production of cool Zone Media.

Speaker 17 (02:51:31):
For more podcasts from cool Zone Media, visit our website
cool zonemedia dot com, or check us out on the
iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to podcasts.

Speaker 6 (02:51:39):
You can find sources for It Could Happen Here, updated
monthly at cool zonemedia dot com slash sources. Thanks for listening.

Behind the Bastards News

Advertise With Us

Follow Us On


Robert Evans

Robert Evans

Show Links


Popular Podcasts

Let's Be Clear with Shannen Doherty

Let's Be Clear with Shannen Doherty

Let’s Be Clear… a new podcast from Shannen Doherty. The actress will open up like never before in a live memoir. She will cover everything from her TV and film credits, to her Stage IV cancer battle, friendships, divorces and more. She will share her own personal stories, how she manages the lows all while celebrating the highs, and her hopes and dreams for the future. As Shannen says, it doesn’t matter how many times you fall, it’s about how you get back up. So, LET’S BE CLEAR… this is the truth and nothing but. Join Shannen Doherty each week. Let’s Be Clear, an iHeartRadio podcast.

The Dan Bongino Show

The Dan Bongino Show

He’s a former Secret Service Agent, former NYPD officer, and New York Times best-selling author. Join Dan Bongino each weekday as he tackles the hottest political issues, debunking both liberal and Republican establishment rhetoric.

Music, radio and podcasts, all free. Listen online or download the iHeart App.


© 2024 iHeartMedia, Inc.