May 9, 2025 • 50 mins
The gang get together to discuss India Pakistan conflict, Israel’s genocidal plan to occupy the Gaza Strip, raids in Los Angeles, the U.S. government sending migrants to Libya, and a tariff update.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2025/05/05/trump-defends-toy-tariffs/83455040007/
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/06/us/politics/trump-libya-migrants.html
https://www.infomigrants.net/en/post/63406/sudanese-war-refugees-recount-libya-horrors
https://www.infomigrants.net/en/post/61979/david-yambio-life-in-libya--living-a-nightmare-part-2
https://www.aclum.org/sites/default/files/field_documents/2025-05-07-105954.pdf
https://www.axios.com/2025/05/04/un-rejects-israel-gaza-aid-plan
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
Cool Media.
Speaker 2 (00:07):
This is it could happen here Executive Disorder, our weekly
newscast covering what's happening in the White House, the crumbling world,
and what it means for you. I'm Garrison Davis today,
joined by Mia Wong, James Stout, and Robert Evans. This episode,
we're covering the week of April thirtieth to May seventh.
Speaker 1 (00:23):
Yes, when you think of ed, you think about rigid
cylindrical things now flying at high speed towards miss That's
a bad way to introduce the facts. There's now a
war going on between India and Pakistan. I don't know
what else are we supposed to do? How are we
supposed to go into this? Pakistan and India are are shooting.
Speaker 3 (00:45):
Yeah's okay, okay, I'm going to attempt to do a
very very very very brief Please God like do not
let this be the extent of your knowledge about this conflict.
But yeah, okay, here is one paragraph about this. So
when India gains and Pakistan eventually gained independence from the
(01:07):
UK and the British Empire, there was the partition. This
is a process in which millions died and India and
Pakistan were split into two states.
Speaker 1 (01:17):
Millions die as a result of the disruption to infrastructure
and as a result of mascular.
Speaker 3 (01:22):
Yeah, and again people fleeing, like back and forth between
the two places. There's been a studio territory for fucking ever.
One of the most contentious parts of this has always
been Kashmir mahrg walk. There's a whole complicated thing here,
but so Kashmir was sort of split in two. There's
an almost entirely Muslim like territory that ends up under
(01:45):
the control of India, and India has waged a brutal
military occupation of Kashmir since they got it. Basically, it
ramps up and down in terms of like how bad
it is, but it's never good. Yeah, in this this
has been a constant source of attension between India and Pakistan,
where you know, Pakistan has played its card of like
(02:06):
we are like the defenders of Muslims in India. And
there's been a series of wars also, but this this
is one of the few times you can say there
are jedicides on both sides. And it's true because like
one of the wars that they fought was because of
the jedicide that Pakistan did in what became Bangladesh. So like,
there are no heroes in this story, there is only
(02:27):
I mean, I guess, like you know, there are people
resisting repression from both states.
Speaker 1 (02:31):
They are good people, but neither of the states have
clean ams.
Speaker 3 (02:34):
Yeah, but the states sucks shit, right, Like you know,
Let let's be clear about that. Kashmir is one of
the most militarized places in the world. It got much
much worse after twenty nineteen when India withdrew the autonomous
status that Kashmiir had had. This sparked a bunch of protests.
They're horribly repressed. There's been staggering numbers of people have
(02:54):
died over the past like thirty years. There look a
lot of like Hesbra's acxis, the outside world has been
cut off. It's difficult to get people like in to it.
And obviously, you know, the thing about occupations is that
there's been a very very long running series of sort
of insurgencies and militant groups in Kashmir of various kinds.
Pakistan has funded some of these groups as a way
(03:18):
to sort of like poke a stick at India, and
in late April a group killed twenty odd twenty six
I think, yeah, twenty twenty six, I think yeah, I
think it's the final number, like Hindu tourists in Kashmir.
It's worth noting that there's no actual evidence that Pakistan
(03:39):
is behind this, but no, but that's India's claim. Yeah,
that's India's claim. And this is causings to get really
really bad in Kashmir itself, which is the part of
this I think has gotten lost in a lot of
the discussions here, which is like like if you if
you read statements from from like I mean like, A,
there's just been like an incredible intensification of oppression, and
b if you read statements from Indian officials there, they're
(04:01):
just straight up talking about quote like Indian style final
solutions for Kashmir. It's completely unhinged. The Indian state has
gone into this, I mean, like, you know, it's it's Modi, right.
Modi is running probably the world's most effective fascist government
and his thing is always like a huge part of
it has always been specifically about like wanting to repress Muslims,
and this, you know, has has kicked the homophobia into
(04:24):
an absolute fever pitch. And the product of this is
that they have started doing strikes inside of Pakistan. I'm
going to pass it over to Robert and talk about
like what does have looked like and what this conflict
has been.
Speaker 1 (04:35):
Yeah. So, and it's important to know that during this
terrorist attack, one of the big things that is alleged
is that husbands were executed in front of their wives. Yeah,
that is that is going to be relevant for the
name of the operation that India is in the process
of carrying out right now. Prior to in the immediate
wake of that attack, everyone knew some shit was going
(04:56):
to go down on the border. India was going to
do some thing, in part because India said they were
going to do something. Right.
Speaker 4 (05:04):
JD.
Speaker 1 (05:04):
Vance, the Peacemaker, as we call him, I don't believe
anyone else has ever been called that in the history
of government or popular media. So, yeah, that seems like
a good nickname for him. Went to India like a
day or two before this all happened to calm things down.
This is often making a visit to the pope or
to tell Mody do whatever. Like, we don't know actually
what he said. Some people are like Vance must have
(05:25):
given him the go ahead. I think it's just as
likely Vance was like Hey, we don't really want a
war right now? Can he calm shit down? And Mody
didn't listen or that Vance just didn't even have anything
meaningful to say. We actually don't know at the moment.
But last night India started carrying out what they are
calling Operation Sindoor Si Indo r is how it is
(05:45):
generally anglicized. The name of the operation comes from. Again,
I mentioned a little earlier that during that terrorist attack
in Kashmir, Hindumen were killed in front of their wives.
Sindoor is a word that refers to this kind of
color or die that I believe it's like a bridal
thing that like women put in I think it's in
their hair. But it's a reference to something that is
(06:08):
part of like a traditional Hindu wedding and something that
the bride does. And so it was specifically named this
in order to make it very clear. This is vengeance
for that attack, right, Like, that's why it was named
what it was. Okay, does that all make sense? Yeah, sorry,
I've got here. Sindor is the Hindi word for vermilion,
which is the red pignant Hindu women apply to their forehead. Right,
So like that, and so it's it's a reference also
(06:30):
to the fact that these terrorists are said to have
like shot their victims in the forehead, right, So there's
there's a lot going on there basically, Yeah, but that's
what's relevant. So when it comes to this what's happening,
first off, perfectly reasonable to call what's happening war. India
has launched cross border strikes. They appear to have launched
both cruise missiles and air strikes using modern jets.
Speaker 5 (06:53):
Right.
Speaker 1 (06:53):
Pakistan has responded with modern military air defenses. What we
can safely say right now is that this is the
first full twenty first century here on peer military action.
And I know, as came up in the meeting, people
are going to say, well, Ukraine, not entirely Ukraine and Russia.
There is a degree to which that is true, because
(07:15):
Ukraine is armed by states that are peer or more
than peer to Russia in terms of military technology. But
Ukraine does not have an industrial base that is in
any way comparable to Russia's. They're not capable of manufacturing
the weaponry that they need to compete with Russia on
the battlefield on their own. That's why international aid has
been so critical Pakistan and India are both effectively peers
(07:37):
in that they both do purchase weaponry a lot from
other countries, but they also have domestic arms industries, and
they have potent domestic militaries that are armed to a
comparable standard. Right, and so there's a few things happening here.
I do not want to lose count of the fact
that people are dying. Obviously, civilians died in that attack
(07:57):
in Kashmir. At the moment, it looks like the death
toll from the initial Indian strikes is somewhere around forty.
Pakistan is claiming the vast majority of those are civilians.
India is claiming that they only hit infrastructure associated with
the terrorist group that they believe carried out the attacks
in Kashmir that they claim is being supported by Pakistan.
There is substantial evidence the majority of the dead are civilians.
(08:21):
People have claimed that large chunks of their families were
wiped out in these strikes. I don't see any reason
to doubt that, knowing how air strikes work. A good
number of the dead, though, have also occurred as a
result of cross border artillery fire, and it's unclear to
me if India and Pakistan have had a full on
artillery duel across the border, or if this is Pakistan's
artillery firing back in response to the air strikes, that
(08:44):
part is unclear. There are also videos where you could
hear small arms fire, so machine guns and the like,
and reports that that is coming from Pakistan's side too.
It's possible there is a cross border direct arm engagement.
It's possible no one died as a result of the
small arms fire, given the distances that this is occurring
at right, that the only nets have been due to
field artillery and due to missile stripes, right, that seems
(09:07):
likely at this point. It's possible the death toll is
much higher than forty, but that's somewhere around there is
what's been confirmed right now. Now we have talked about
the deaths. Obviously, the biggest concern is the loss in
human life. Here, I am going to talk about what
this means on a military level, because that is relevant
both how this conflict is going to proceed and how
(09:28):
future conflicts are going to proceed, because we have not
seen a peer on peer fight like this before in
this century, right, So one of the more important things
as to how this has preceded is that a number
of the jets that India launched across the border are
what are called refalls our afal E. This is a
French fighter jet. It is broadly considered to be equivalent
(09:50):
to an F eighteen super Hornet. Now, I say that
if you go online and you listen to people who
are nerds about fighter jets, they will pull a knife
on you for claiming that.
Speaker 5 (10:02):
Right.
Speaker 1 (10:02):
There are major differences between the two airframes. One of
them is that the Refall is a larger plane, which
means it's theoretically capable. Not theoretically, it is capable of
a significantly higher payload. However, there's a couple of problems
that come with that. One is that the super Hornet
not only is it a smaller craft, but it is
built for carrier duty, which means it's wings fold. Yeah,
you can fit more of them on a carrier. They
(10:24):
take off and land more easily from a carrier, or
a fall can take off and land from a carrier,
but it has to have a different load out right.
The other issue, a super Hornet can stay supersonic with
its full payload for longer periods of time. That means
that it can be breaking the sound barrier consistently, not
just using its after burner for like a quick burst
of speed. That matters because the faster you're going, the
(10:45):
harder you are.
Speaker 4 (10:46):
To shoot down.
Speaker 1 (10:47):
The primary erit ground package it has is what's called
a hammer and that's an acronym hammer. I don't know
what it stands for off the top of my head,
but they are between two hundred and fifty and one
thousand pounds each. Right, these are their air to ground
men that they are equipped with standard. It's possible India
has a separate load out for them. I don't actually know.
This is their standard armament. Now. They can only have
(11:09):
their full complement if they're not going supersonic, so they
cannot go supersonic for a comparable period of time to
a super Hornet if they have a full compliment. From
a military technology standpoint, the biggest news from the initial
stage of the strike is that at least one of
these refalls has been destroyed. There's decent evidence that potentially
another two. If India lost three of these jets they
(11:32):
have thirty six. That is a meaningful degradation of their
entire air force capability to strike. Right. Losing these jets
and they cannot be replaced on any kind of timeframe
that is comparable to how quickly they're being shot down.
Pakistan is claiming significantly more that they Pakistan's claim is
that they've downed three rafalls, one MiG twenty nine, one
(11:53):
SU thirty MKI and at least one Israeli made herondrone.
People generally say Pakistan is probably exaggerating. However, French authorities
have confirmed at least one rafall, and there's two more
than possibilities that are being looked into. It's possible three
planes were downed, but only one was a refall. We
don't really know yet, right, but even one is a
meaningful loss, and the fact that it was downed says
(12:16):
a couple of things. One thing is that there's a
decent chance what I suspect we might hear, especially if
three of these went down, is that India sent these
things off with a full strike package, so they were
not able to go as fast as they normally can,
and thus we're not able to evade Pakistan's anti air defenses. Right,
that may be what happened. The other thing that we're
(12:36):
seeing here is that Pakistan is equipped. They buy the
best part and Pakistan has a lot of S three
hundreds and S four hundreds, I believe, which are like
what we've seen in Ukraine. Those have had a very
mixed operational history in terms of their capability to take
out modern aircraft. Pakistan also has a lot of PL
fifteen radar guided anti air missiles. These are Chinese anti
(12:57):
aircraft missiles. They have never been used in combat before.
If you're a nerd for like modern military technology, one
of the things people have been talking about in that
field for a long time is like, how are these
going to function? And we just know that they've been
used because wreckage from them has been found and photographed
and people who are experts in these missiles online have
confirmed this is from this weapons package. It is very
(13:20):
likely that the Rafal that was down was downed by
this missile, and if more than one was down, that
they were all downed by these missiles. So that tells
us a lot about the comparable capabilities of both this
modern Western fighter that the French are selling and of
this Chinese anti aircraft missile. Right, and so that's really
relevant if we're looking at both how this conflict is
going to proceed, Because I don't want to be coming
(13:42):
up from this bloodless like, Oh, I'm just interested in
the military strategy part. This is relevant because if India
has lost three of these advanced fighters that they cannot
replace on any kind of comparable timeframe in the first
few hours of strikes, that suggests one of two potential
future outcomes. Number One, the tempo of use of advanced
(14:02):
aircraft in this war is going to change considerably as
it drags into the next stages, right, because they simply
can't maintain that tempo. That can't continue to take those
sort of risks, and that either means moving on to
a lot more ground engagements between infantry, between tanks between artillery,
like direct face to face shit, or a potential for
(14:22):
escalating things to the next level. And the only next
level higher than where we're at is nuclear, Right. I
don't think that is the likeliest outcome. I do not
think a nuclear exchange between Pakistan and India is the
likeliest thing at this point. However, the rate at which
India is a tritting air assets means that they're going
to have to make a choice in the not too
distant future. Right, Although it's also worth noting we don't
(14:45):
know entirely the degree to which Pakistan's anti air defenses
have been attreated by this. Right, there's a lot of
open there's a lot of unknown unknowns and known unknowns here. Right.
As our good friend Rumsfeld would say, I will say
the other issue here, if there is a nuclear ext change,
it's going to be the greatest humanitarian catastrophe of the century.
That doesn't mean it's going to be a nuclear war
(15:07):
across the entire world, and that shouldn't be your first concern.
Your first concern should be that that would still mean
millions of deaths in India and Pakistan, potentially at least
hundreds of thousands.
Speaker 5 (15:16):
Right.
Speaker 1 (15:16):
The concern is not they start, so everyone else does,
it's they start, and thus the worst humanitarian disaster since
World War two occurs.
Speaker 4 (15:24):
Yeah.
Speaker 6 (15:24):
I mean some of the most densely populated cities on
Earth are in this region. Like a strike in any
major city that would be devastating.
Speaker 1 (15:31):
Yeah, a strike in Islamabad would be the worst thing
that's happened, possibly since the Holocaust, in terms of like
human death told due to human actions.
Speaker 6 (15:40):
Yeah, it's pretty bad.
Speaker 4 (15:42):
I know.
Speaker 6 (15:42):
India claimed that they were launching a quote non escalatory
strike in it so much as that means shit.
Speaker 1 (15:48):
Yes.
Speaker 6 (15:48):
They also claimed that they PL fifteen didn't have its
intercept ahead, which I guess the French intelligence refuted.
Speaker 1 (15:54):
Yeah, and this is all There's a lot that's unknown
about kind of how these weapons have performed still, but
these are in terms of both how this conflict is
going to proceed and how future conflicts will proceed. These
are things you should be looking at because these weapons
platforms there. This is important in terms of what war
is going to continue to look like.
Speaker 3 (16:12):
I think it's also worth noting a couple of things.
One is that this is by far the largest like
clash that these countries have had in a long time.
But also like there have been like periodic like cross
border skirmishes around Casume for a while now, right like
there was a pretty big flare up in twenty twenty
that kind of less than twenty twenty one, And so
(16:32):
there is a chance that this doesn't turn into a
full scale war and that you get something more like
what happened sort of recently with Israel and Ran, where
they like bomb each other a few times and then
everyone sort of packs up their bags and goes home
and continues to like poke each other with militant groups
instead of it being like tanks. And I think that
(16:55):
is like orders of magnitude more likely than like nukes flying. Yeah,
just it's sort of like, yeah, like the chance at
which these people start shooting dukes to each other is
not very high.
Speaker 4 (17:06):
Like yes, just like in.
Speaker 3 (17:07):
The history of nuclear weapons too, you have to understand that,
like some of the most unhinged people who have ever lived,
like Curtis le May, like the US and the Soviets
never did it, like Mao Mao and the Soviets never
did it, Like apartheid South Africa had nuclear weapons and
never use them. Some of the worst people who have
ever lived have had access to the nukes, have never
fired them. The odds that you're gonna die in nuclear
(17:29):
fire are very very, very very very low. It's not
good now, everything that's happening here is very bad. But
like you do not need to be like living in
existential terror of like fire raining from the sky. That's
not like a reasonable reaction to this, and I've been
seeing a lot of that.
Speaker 1 (17:45):
So no, it's it's far from the likeliest outcome, and
your primary concern should be to people who are living
there right now.
Speaker 4 (17:53):
Yeah, yeah, right.
Speaker 1 (17:55):
You know, it's worth noting that the nineteen ninety nine
and the Cargo War, that was not an insignal death toll, right,
Like you're talking probably like certainly more than a thousand,
I think one thousand to a couple one thousand people,
So that would not be that's not certainly not out
of the question without it escalating in that way. I
(18:15):
think the primary concern that you always have, and why
I bring up weapons systems, is that countries think in
terms of stuff like this a lot. This is a
big part of why we get World War one.
Speaker 4 (18:24):
Right.
Speaker 1 (18:24):
You have these nations that are arming, and they're always
concerned with how do my weapons compare to my neighbors
if we go to war. Now, I feel pretty good
about where I'm at, and if I wait another two years,
maybe they'll be in a better position. And thinking like
that is part of the planning that's going on in
these states, and the planning about when do we escalate
and how do we escalate? Right, do we move to
(18:45):
a point where we've got masses of infantry shooting at
each other, Well, maybe if we can't risk the continued
attrition of our advanced air assets, we do that, or
maybe we make another decision. That's why it's relevant to
know about this stuff, not because you want to nerd
out over who's got the coolest missile, who's got the
coolest planes, but because that is very much how states think.
Right anyway, before we're going to add to tight this
(19:06):
back to the executive dysfunction, because that is what this
is about, yea, not the current Wars podcast. In the
immediate wake of all of this, President Trump was asked about, Hey,
how about these two nuclear armed states going to war?
What do you think about that? And he gave a,
you know, just a traditionally eloquent, you know, Donald Trump response,
(19:28):
It's a shame we just heard about it. I guess
people knew something was going to happen based on a
little bit of the past. They've been fighting for a
long time. I just hope it ends quickly, me too, buddy, correct,
I guess I guess they've been fighting for a long time. Okay, anyway,
(19:49):
let's go to ads.
Speaker 4 (20:02):
All right, we are back.
Speaker 2 (20:04):
I'm gonna talk now about some other horrifying geopolitical news. Hey,
this is Garrison from Friday May ninth. I have a
correction to make on the original copy of this episode.
I made an error in saying Greta Thunberg was aboard
a humanitarian aid ship off the coast of Italy that
was airstriked by Israel. The ship was indeed attacked, but
(20:28):
she was not on that ship. I watched a video
of her discussing the attack and it sounded first person,
and then we recorded shortly thereafter. But now it's clear
she was not on this ship but instead planned to
board later that day on the way to Gaza as
a part of the humanitarian aid organization the Freedom Flotilla Coalition.
More than a dozen other aid workers were aboard the
(20:50):
vessel when it was hit, and this relates to the
larger humanitarian aid crisis in Gaza. Now back to the episode.
The past two months, Israel has forcibly cut off all food, water, machines, supplies,
and other humanitarian aid to Gaza, starving the Palatinian people.
As not Naho continues to reject ceasefire deals. Reports from
(21:11):
the UN say that Gaza will run out of food
in days.
Speaker 1 (21:14):
Yep, I mean it looks like a starvation genocide. I
don't know how else to phrase this. There's really nothing else.
This isn't the time to mince words like every piece
of evidence suggests this is a starvation genocide being carried out,
that they're trying to starve this population to death or
until they all leave, which is the same. Genocide does
not necessarily mean you kill everyone. It is the forced
(21:34):
killing and or displacement of a population.
Speaker 2 (21:37):
Yeah, Israel says that the Palestinians still have food for
a few months, but the UN and other aid organizations
say that is not true.
Speaker 4 (21:46):
Now.
Speaker 2 (21:46):
Last Sunday night, Israel's Security cabinet approved a plan to
reoccupy and hold the Gaza Strip if a new Seaspire
deal isn't reached by May fifteenth, while Yahoo and Israeli
officials continue to undermine negotiations for a permanent ceasefire. This
plan is called Gideon's Chariots.
Speaker 1 (22:06):
Jesus fucking Christ.
Speaker 2 (22:08):
The plan is for the IDF to invade with four
to five armored infantry divisions, mobilizing uproots of seventy thousand reservists,
which would gradually occupy and secure basically the entire Gaza Strip.
According to Israel's Finance Minister, this IDF occupation would be permanent,
not even pulling back with the release of any remaining hostages,
(22:30):
though other Israeli officials disagree on this and say this
would be a temporary occupation. Pretty hard to take their
word on that all remaining buildings would be destroyed, flattening
the entirety of the strip, just like Rafa and the
northern side. Amir Aviv, the founder of the Israel Defense
and Security Forum think tank and a former deputy commander
(22:51):
of the Israeli forces, say, quote, this is the only
way to eradicate Hamas militarily and governmentally is to take
over Gaza and to conquer the area and destroy them unquote.
There's some added complications with like legally like occupying Gaza
under the Geneva Convention, a formal occupation would require Israel
(23:12):
to have the capacity to operate as an official government
authority in this region. Now, there's no indication that Israel
will like follow the Geneva Convention, as they haven't.
Speaker 4 (23:22):
Yeah, it's Israel.
Speaker 6 (23:23):
They never have given a shit, Yeah don't.
Speaker 1 (23:25):
I don't see why we'd expect that.
Speaker 2 (23:27):
But if they do occupy, they they would be more
like liable for the well being of the Palestinians that
would be inside the territory and the IDEF doesn't have
a plan for this. They are planning to forcedly relocate
around two million Palestinians to a single quote unquote humanitarian
area which is positioned in the rubble of Ratha, where
(23:49):
secure quote unquote compounds are being constructed to distribute food
and supplies to Palestinians who are screened and approved as
not being members of Hamas. This area will be managed
by private US companies and a quote unquote new international foundation,
which works with Israel and the United States established aid
(24:12):
organizations in the un announced that they would not be
participating in running these quote unquote compounds, calling this a
tactic to give the Israeli military even more power over
how aid is distributed, saying in a statement quote it
contravenes fundamental humanitarian principles and appears designed to reinforce control
over life sustaining items as a pressure tactic as part
(24:33):
of a military strategy. It is dangerous driving civilians into
militarized zones to collect rations, threatening lives, including those of
humanitarian workers, while further entrenching forced DISPLACEMENTEEAH an Israeli official
said the only alternative to being moved to this quote
unquote humanitarian area would be to leave Gaza quote unquote
(24:55):
voluntarily to other countries, citing Trump's plan to resettle displaced Powerians.
Speaker 4 (25:01):
Robert James Miya, do you want to comment on this?
Speaker 6 (25:06):
It's not much to say, so, like it's they're just
saying the thing that they've been going for for a
while now, which is the removal of all panasty to
get people from the Goddess trip, either in body bags
or to live somewhere else.
Speaker 3 (25:17):
I guess it's just straight up a genocide.
Speaker 4 (25:19):
Like they're describing a genocide.
Speaker 1 (25:21):
Yeah, there's no doubting it. Like I don't even know,
Like what is it? What is there to say? Right?
Like at this point, I almost think other than obviously
documenting what's happening is important, the only important thing to
try to talk about it is like how can this
be stopped? And or how can a degree of like
what does justice look like at some point down the line?
(25:45):
What should be done?
Speaker 4 (25:46):
You know?
Speaker 1 (25:47):
Like these are questions to ask, but like to just
like I don't know what to keep saying other than like, yep,
they're trying to wipe out Gaza like.
Speaker 2 (25:57):
Well, and specifically the use of these like quote unquote compounds,
You're like rounding up and keeping people inside one secure.
Speaker 6 (26:04):
Area, concentrating the main camps.
Speaker 2 (26:06):
Like come on, guys, you're just setting up camps for
Palestinians on the south side of the strip and like
that's all that this is as they reoccupy and hold
the entirety to quote unquote eliminate Hamas. So this Monday,
Trump's going to start a three day visit to Saudi
Arabia Cutter and the United Arab Emirates. This is while
the US government has taken a backfoot on Gaza negotiations
(26:27):
while still backing up net Yahoo and any actions taken
by the Israeli military. Yeah, so we will know more
about what Israel is actually going to do immediately in
the region in like a week's time. Though it looks
like they are going to be going forward with this
May fifteenth reoccupation plan.
Speaker 5 (26:47):
Cool.
Speaker 6 (26:47):
Well, yeah, so more good news from me. Immigration update.
The New York Times today on the this is Wednesday
the seventh is reporting that the Trump administration is as
soon as today. I checked this before recording. The plane
haven't taken off planning to ship people to migrants to Libya.
(27:09):
The nationalities of people being renditioned there are not clear,
but my guess would be that these are third party
nationals that the US can't deport to their home countries
like they previously deported these people to Panama and to Elsabadov.
If you're not familiar with migrant detention in Libya, conditions
are horrific, like among the worst things that can happen
(27:31):
to people. The situation in Libya is currently the country
is divided between the Tripoli government, which is recognized by
the UN and which the US has formal government government
relationships with, and Hafta's government based in Benghazi, which the
Trump regime has associated with. Before. We have covered conditions
(27:52):
in Libyan migrant detention camps before, which i'll chack in
the show notes. And we also talked about the dangers
faced by people leaving Libya towards the EU in a
different episode, which I also list. But to recap, reports
document starvation, rape, murder, slavery, and organ harvesting occurring in Libya.
(28:12):
Mass graves, including one last year that was found with
sixty five bodies in it, are not uncommon to quote
from David Yambio. David Yambio is someone who was He
was sold and then forced to fight in a militia
in Libya, and I think, I believe he escaped and
he is now in I think he's in Italy, but
he's ready to be outspoken on this stuff. The slave
(28:34):
trade is alive and thriving in Libya. It thrives in
the silence of nations, in the shadows of complicit systems,
and then the unchecked racism that dehumanizes black lives in
other immigration US The government's attempt to delay Rumsa Oztek's
return to Vermont was rejected by the second Circuit, so
that means that she will have to be returned to
(28:57):
She was arrested in Massachusetts, if you remember, for writing
an op.
Speaker 4 (29:00):
At Tufts University. Yeah.
Speaker 6 (29:01):
Yeah, moved across state borders to Vermont and from their
central Louisiana. So the habeas case was transferred to Vermont
and as a rule that the government cannot de laboring
her back there anymore. Another flight containing eighty one migrants
left Panama yesterday at the United States expense. This is
(29:22):
the continuation of a plan that the Biaen administration installed
in summer last year, and the Trump administration has continued
whereby the US funds deportations from Panama. Meanwhile, Tokyo Weekender
in Japan is reporting that the United States is asking
people to show five years of social media history in
order to obtain a student visa, just to put that
(29:46):
in perspective for people. So you have to either those
accounts are deleted or no longer used, you have to
declare them all on your form. If you're applying for
student visa and you're at the younger end of a
traditional aged undergraduate, you could have to list every social
mediacount you've had since you were twelve on this form.
And the US has required disclosure for a while, but
(30:07):
like it hasn't been a practical thing. I haven't really
ever heard from any one of anybody's visa being denied
or asylum being denied based on social media posting. But
this is now something that that they are asking people
to disclose.
Speaker 2 (30:20):
Well and requiring, not like requiring it, not asking it
is it is. It is going to be like an
enforced requirement in a way that before it really hasn't been.
It's the term that the law firm used in this
piece is like in the past, this has been mostly
quote unquote negligible. Yeah, and now this is something that
the Department of State is really being adamant about.
Speaker 6 (30:43):
Yeah, which will massively delay the time to process visa
applications on top of everything else.
Speaker 2 (30:50):
People in Japan have compared this to two policies similar
to that of China's Cultural Revolution.
Speaker 4 (30:56):
Yeah.
Speaker 6 (30:57):
I mean I've been to other countries to be clear,
where they open up your social media and look at
it when you're entering. But this is not a thing
that anyone has ever associated with the United States. Finally,
I guess the Freedom of the Press Foundation got some
documentary release under a federal Freedom of Information Act. The
outline that the intelligence community did not believe that the
(31:17):
Maduro regime was controlling tender Agua, which was one of
the claims that Trump administration has made in its invocation
of the Alien Enemies Act. Right, So it's just kind
of I think most people who pay any attention to
the situation weren't really buying that, but but it's showing
that this was documented by the US intelligence community as well.
(31:39):
So yeah, any anything to add that the Libya stuff
is bleak like it hasn't got much coverage in the US.
We have covered it before, but the European Union is
already complicit in the terrible treatment of migrants in Libya.
And oh yeah, and for ages it has happened for
ages like the so called Libyan Coast Guard of bringing
people back to Libya and like literally set them from
(32:00):
shelters to human traffickers. I mean, we've more or less
kind of lined up behind some of the worst places
on earth, like in terms of migrant detention, right with
SECOT and this.
Speaker 2 (32:13):
Yeah, more and more families are figuring out that like
their family members have been sent to SCOT, like people
who have not been named an official documentation. They've been
able to search through these propaganda videos and identify more people,
so they're launching court cases to have them returned, people
who very clearly have had no gang affiliation. Not that
(32:33):
that should even matter when you're sending people to the
forever prison.
Speaker 6 (32:37):
Yeah. I saw one guy we've had a Donald Duck tattoo,
and that was I guess the decisive claim there. Right,
there's a form that ICE agents fill out, and there's
a number of points they have to a mass I
believe it's three points and one of the things that
can allow you to a mass three points. It's like,
I think two points come from a tattoo, which which
they decide to be gang affiliated and.
Speaker 1 (32:58):
No, and again like they seem to just be saying
tattoos period, right, Like anything is trindagua, right.
Speaker 2 (33:06):
Yeah, right, people who have like soccer tattoos, people who
have I love my mom and dad tattoos, It doesn't matter.
Speaker 1 (33:11):
There's an autism awareness tattoos.
Speaker 6 (33:14):
Yeah, some guy had an autism awareness Yeah. That one
like haunts me because I have met young neurodivergent people
and their families who are bringing them to the US
to get what they thought was a better standard of care,
right to allow their children to progress and have a
beautiful life. Yeah, man, that one like, like, I honestly
(33:36):
really struggle with that. I have spent lots and lots
and lots of time with Venezuelan migrants and like they're
my friends. And that particular one, like people whose children
have any need for medical care right are overrepresented the
migrant population because they just can't access it there, and
so they upend their whole lives and carry their children
(33:57):
across the continent to give them a chance at a
better life life and like that one is particularly hard
for me to win US. I did just want to
mention on the topic of asylum. I have heard from
so many migrants stuck in Mexico who are having a
god awful time to include you know, robbery, kidnapping, sexual violence,
(34:19):
of all of the things that we know can happen
to migrants on the migrant trail. Because they have no
pathway to get to the US, they're now just stuck there. Right.
Mexico continues to take migrants and move them back south
if it catches them near the United States border, even
if some of them move up as far as Mexico City,
right because they have access to services there, and then
(34:40):
again sent back south to places where migrants have routinely
been murdered. So I know, we're focusing a lot on
migrants being kicked out of the US deported, renditioned. Conditions
for migrants who aspired to come to the United States
who took great risks to be Americans and are stuck
in Mexico are also dire.
Speaker 2 (35:00):
All right, Let's go and break and then come back
for a few more updates before we close out.
Speaker 1 (35:05):
Yeah, we're back. And wait a second, is that is
that the tariff.
Speaker 3 (35:21):
Song Locky z b Jazz.
Speaker 6 (35:31):
Lock Locky Jazz by jazz Bob.
Speaker 1 (35:38):
All right, guys, I actually don't know. Do we have
anything to say about tariffs this week?
Speaker 4 (35:41):
Yeah, we actually actually do us on Turff so good.
Speaker 1 (35:44):
I'm just we gotta get all of our use out
of that song because again, we really do. We really
had to suspend the whole team's healthcare to pay for it.
It was monstrously expensive. The full cut of that song
is seventeen and a half hours. We actually brought in
the remaining members of Fleetwood Mac as well as several
Rolling Stones.
Speaker 4 (36:03):
It was.
Speaker 1 (36:03):
It just just disastrous.
Speaker 6 (36:07):
So far, attempts to resurrect Joe's drama have failed, but
we have spent million.
Speaker 1 (36:11):
We we only use the clip with our friend the
Narcissist Cookbook. But yeah, there there is a twenty six
minute drum solo with the guy from Rush geedty Lee.
He's still alive, right, was it, geedty Lee?
Speaker 5 (36:22):
Yeah?
Speaker 1 (36:22):
Yeah, yeah, he's still alive. The joke works. The joke works,
not cheap, not cheap.
Speaker 6 (36:28):
Yeah. Yeah, it's much like the dire Wolf thing. We've
put Joe's drama's DNA into another court. Yeah, man, and
does he worried. We've released him into the wild and
we're going to see how he developed.
Speaker 1 (36:37):
So far, he just has a lot of blood clots.
Speaker 4 (36:39):
But we have we're home fielder on the case though.
He's training him up. Well, we'll get him. We'll get
him on.
Speaker 1 (36:44):
Here, all right, Yeah, yeah, pariffs good bad?
Speaker 5 (36:47):
What do you think you.
Speaker 6 (36:50):
Okay?
Speaker 4 (36:50):
So all right, let's let let's let's let's actually do
this ship.
Speaker 3 (36:53):
So is it. One of the things that we've been
talking about along on this show is the Deminimus exemption,
which was this exemption that formerly allowed you was particularly
used in trade with China where you could, like if
you were setting a package that was under like seven
hundred dollars, like it didn't have to like go through
customs in a way that you would normally would have
to do it.
Speaker 4 (37:11):
That shit's gone. That ended on Friday of last week.
Speaker 3 (37:15):
This has already skyrocketed the cost of doing imports of
shit from China because huge amounts of stuff being shipped
from China was you know, like reliant on shipping it
in packages that were exactly six hundred and ninety nine dollars,
and you know, this has like like Temu's entire business
model has changed basically every night, where like they're no
longer shipping stuff in from China, they're only selling stuff
(37:35):
from like American distributors. This is going to have catastrophic
effects on so many supply chains you've never even thought
of in the weeks to come, because again, there are
so many different like tiny screws and shit, like just
like really really small items that you used to be
able to get from China for like fucking five dollars
(37:56):
for like one hundred of them that now have unbelievable
tariff rates on them and have to go through a
really really confluted customs process. There have already been sort
of massive supply Chaine disruptions in a large number of industries.
It's going to continue to get worse. Sophie was talking
about metal imports hitting the construction industry because there's you know,
there's terraffs on a bunch of different kinds of metal,
(38:16):
as we've covered on the show, aluminum.
Speaker 1 (38:18):
God knows what's gonna happen to diet coke.
Speaker 7 (38:20):
We'll put it in lads, like God intended maybe that'll
finally change Trump's outlook. Is when his diet coat heap. Yeah, yeah,
Trump and Musk both become inoperable.
Speaker 1 (38:31):
You know, Garrison, we will know when that's hit when
the missiles are in the air, like oh shitty ran out.
Speaker 2 (38:38):
Federal occupation of the Coca Cola headquarters in Atlanta, Georgia.
Speaker 3 (38:42):
Yeah, so you know, and this is also like this,
this is going to have a profound impact on Chinese economy. Again,
we're still in sort of the waiting room until sort
of Midsummer when all of the rest of the tariffs
that were supposed to go into effect go back into
effect and literally everything collapses.
Speaker 1 (38:58):
You're probably three to five weeks out from really starting
to see it hit hard in like the stuff you
buy on a day to day basis, right, People who
are doing stuff like remodeling houses or building houses are
starting to notice now. I think people car prepare businesses
and one of people have to order parts. That is
starting to hit. But your grocery store that's really going
(39:19):
to be most noticeable somewhere between three and five weeks
from now, maybe sooner, probably not much longer.
Speaker 3 (39:24):
Well, and other things are about to get sniffy and
the worse. So this has been talked about for a
long time. The buzz right now is that they're happening soon.
I don't know exactly what that means, but there has
been for a long long time. Trump has been talking
about doing tariffs on pharma, So congratulations, get excited for
all of your medication costing a lot more money. He
also put into place a one hundred percent terrafund foreign movies.
Speaker 1 (39:47):
Well we'll see, yes, yeah, but then he walked that back.
He had a conversation with John Voight and announced, Yeah,
they're getting to that hundred percent tariff on all movies.
Speaker 3 (39:58):
Yeah.
Speaker 6 (40:00):
No one knows what that means.
Speaker 4 (40:02):
How can you do that?
Speaker 1 (40:03):
Do a terrafun of movie? What are we talking about it?
Speaker 4 (40:06):
It's literally it's literally just like like he's doing terriffs
in the.
Speaker 3 (40:09):
Way that like there's that, but the guy for the
Wolf of Wall Street is like what guy walks out
of the room and goes short. Everything's ever touched Like
it's like that thing. Yeah, like he's gonna be terriffing
like fucking ocean currents in two months.
Speaker 1 (40:20):
The responses to it have been have been so funny
because Gavin Newsome, arch dipshit of the Democratic Party, was
immediately like, we love the idea of working with our
president to keep the film jobs in California.
Speaker 2 (40:32):
You know.
Speaker 1 (40:33):
Meanwhile, Trump immediately was like, well, maybe we won't do that,
I think because they're still at the very head of
the studio system. Some scary old mob type dudes, right,
and I think a few of them also.
Speaker 4 (40:46):
Tom Cruise is terrifying.
Speaker 1 (40:47):
Tom Cruise. Tom Cruise like, sat down, Donald. You know,
no one's heard from David Mskovich's wife in a long
ass time, and they don't have to hear from you either,
Like you don't want to fuck with me?
Speaker 3 (41:01):
Yeah?
Speaker 6 (41:02):
Even Trump believes he actually is the mission impossible guy.
Speaker 4 (41:06):
And you could convince them, you could.
Speaker 6 (41:09):
Somebody convinced him, Yeah, something.
Speaker 1 (41:12):
Somebody convinced him to Nero's is like, didn't he reopen
Alcatraz after the Alcatraz film?
Speaker 6 (41:18):
Ad on the lyric, Yes, but.
Speaker 1 (41:20):
It was the it was the Clint Eastwood one and
not the much better Alcatraz film The Rock starring Sean
Connery and Nicholas Cage a banger ages perfectly watch it,
everyone watch it tonight reading any more news?
Speaker 3 (41:35):
Okay, there's more news though, unfortunately. Yeah, well okay, there
there's one funny thing, and there's the like the actual
news here is part of what's going on here is
just everything is just chaos. And this is something that like,
I mean, I've had this conversation with a bunch of
people who work in shipping of the last couple of weeks.
Is that like it's just chaos, right, Like everything is
changing all the time. And this means every time one
of these things changes, a bunch of like the import
(41:55):
coaches and like suff just changes on the level of
like the customs people, and like just like like literally
the process of importing this stuff changes, and it's just
a complete fucking disaster. People are getting laid off constantly too,
so like every single part of the goverment that's supposed
to be doing this suddenly has less people. It's it's
an absolute rolling catash and for you will continue to
get worse. There's also good evidence that like they know
(42:18):
that it's gonna get worse. I'm gonna read this quote
from USA today, Well this is from Trump. I don't
think a beautiful baby and that's eleven years old needs
to have thirty dollars. Trump told Meet the Press House
Kirsten Welker, I think they can have three or four
dolls because what we're doing with China is just unbelievable.
We have a trade deficit of hundreds of billions of
dollars for China. I'm just saying, they don't need to
have thirty dollars. They can have belief. They don't need
(42:39):
to have one hundred and fifty pencils. They can have five,
five pencils.
Speaker 2 (42:43):
Everyone, five pencils and three dollars this Christmas. Imagine if
Joe Biden an now it's like, all right, we're gonna
have to cut down on Christmas gifts this year.
Speaker 4 (42:51):
We can't do it. Uh, the Fox News would be
like freaking the fuck out.
Speaker 2 (42:56):
We're like, Joe Biden's taking away your kid's Christmas and
the pencils and yeah who cares.
Speaker 4 (43:03):
Yeah, But I mean like like the.
Speaker 3 (43:04):
Actual SIS thing here is like yeah, no, like these
people understand that you're going to suffer. They don't give
a shit. We want you to suffer.
Speaker 4 (43:11):
Ye, the political project, Yeah, so you know, yeah, owning
the Libs anyway? Is that all for tariff talkbia? Yeah,
that's that's all we got on. That's how we got
on the tariffs.
Speaker 2 (43:23):
I am excited for for Trump to meet Ethan Hunt
on his last mission, So there's still hope.
Speaker 4 (43:29):
All right.
Speaker 2 (43:29):
I have a few more updates before we close out here.
One on the federal judge back and forth of last week.
US District judge blocked the Trump Admin's efforts via executive
order to require what they deem as proof of citizenship
to register to vote. The judge stated that this case
was about separation of powers and undue presidential interference in
how states in Congress run and regulate elections, writing, quote,
(43:53):
our Constitution in trusts Congress and the States, not the
President with the authority to regulate federal elections. No statutory
delgation of authority to the executive branch permits the President
to short circuit Congress's deliberative process by executive order. Yeah,
so we'll see how that develops for now. I'll also
be doing an update on the Save Act as it
makes its way through Congress as well, for those interested,
(44:15):
another kind of voting suppression bill that's getting a push
through This Tuesday, the Supreme Court upheld the trans military ban,
at least for now, it'll still process through appeals, but
the Trump administration is now allowed to enforce the ban,
which they previously couldn't because a lower court put the
enforcement on hold.
Speaker 3 (44:35):
Yeah, so I think the actual scariest part about that
is if you read the if you read the language
of what the court was talking about, they've been describing
it as like someone who thinks that like they are
a woman when they're actually a man, Like isn't someone
who can perform at like the standards of like honor
and whatever that like a soldier needs. And this is
I think a ramp up to the really really dangerous
thing that is coming, which is their attempt to just
(44:56):
straight up brand being trans as fraud.
Speaker 4 (44:59):
I mean, this is the this is the Trump Admin's argument, correct,
this is what they were writing.
Speaker 6 (45:03):
Yeah, yeah, this is the statement I guess that the
DoD is claiming that expressing a quote false gender identity
divergent from an individual sex can't satisfy the rigorous standards
necessarily for military service. And they specifically talk about a
soldier's commitment to an honorable, truthful, and disciplined lifestyle, even
in one's personal life, And they then go ahead to
(45:24):
claim that being trans inherently contradicts that.
Speaker 2 (45:29):
That's the Trump Admin's argument, which is going to be
like used to undermine transmitter rights in the future, possibly
threatening Title nine.
Speaker 4 (45:38):
Yeah.
Speaker 6 (45:39):
Yeah, it's very concerning.
Speaker 2 (45:41):
So the fact that they were able to like at
least at this point when this case in the Streame
court extremely worrying.
Speaker 4 (45:48):
Yeah.
Speaker 6 (45:50):
I will just say that if this impacts you someone
you care about, so when you know, you can reach
out to us. Obviously that's the third little we can
do about it. But we are here to listen to
report the news, and you can do that at cool
Zone tips at proton dot me. It's only an encrypted
(46:10):
email and to end, if it comes from an encrypted
email address to our encrypted email address.
Speaker 4 (46:16):
We are reading all of those.
Speaker 2 (46:17):
We may not respond to all of them, but we
are taking note of them and we'll report on stuff
in the future. The last thing I do want to
add is like a raid that happened last week in California.
Homeland Security Investigations ICE and Secret Service right at the
house in southern California looking for a man who months
ago posted flyers around Los Angeles last January warning about
(46:43):
ICE agents in the area with names, photos, and phone
numbers reading in Spanish. Quote careful with these faces.
Speaker 4 (46:50):
Quote. The Feds served a.
Speaker 2 (46:52):
Criminal search warrant on the home of this guy's parents,
even though he moved to New York last March. At
least fifty teen armored vehicles pulled up to this upscale
neighborhood with full militarized federal swat. They seized routers and
hard drives.
Speaker 6 (47:08):
Yeah, that's no great acting.
Speaker 2 (47:10):
As Director Todd Luins was on the scene for this operation.
He told Fox News that he took it personally that
someone would put a target on his agents in an
effort to interfere with them and put them at risk,
saying the person will be held accountable. What they're using
here is probably likely US Code one nineteen Protection of
Individuals performing certain duties. Whoever knowingly makes restricted personal information
(47:33):
about a covered person or a member of the immediate
family of that covered person publicly available with the intent
to threaten, intimidate, or incite the commission of a crime
of violence against that covered person or a member of
the immediate family. So this is likely what they're using.
Arguing that posting a photo on a flyer with the
person's name and phone number is enough to threaten, intimidate,
(47:56):
or facilitate the commission.
Speaker 4 (47:57):
Of a crime.
Speaker 6 (47:58):
Yeah, what comes hut covered persons as it is. That's
a good question, James. Uh, that's a screenshot, right, so
you can't click that.
Speaker 2 (48:06):
That is a screenshot and probably a question for a lawyer.
But they are they are arguing that that the ICE
agents like fall under this purview.
Speaker 6 (48:15):
Yes, the term covered person means a an individual designated
to Session one fourteen B, a grand dura, petty jura
witness or rather officer of the court, an informal witness
in a federal criminal investigation or prosecution, state or local
officer or employee whose restricted personal information is made publicly
available because of the participation in or assistant provided to
(48:36):
a federal criminal investigation. So it's part C.
Speaker 2 (48:40):
Yeah, so that's that's what they're going to argue. The
people's addresses weren't posted here. It was just their names
and photos. But ICE and HSI are being very protective
of the faces of the agents doing immigration raids and
student crackdowns right now. They're they're really nervous about about
agents possibly being targeted. So any attempt to identify these
(49:00):
as being treated as like a threat. A Homeland Security
spokesperson told Fox News quote, these pathetic activists are putting
targets on the backs of our law enforcement as they
shield Ms thirteen, Trendilagua and other vicious gangs at traffic,
women and children kidnapped for ransom, and poison Americans with
lethal drugs. These individuals will be held accountable for obstructing
the law and justice.
Speaker 4 (49:21):
This shouldn't be controversial.
Speaker 3 (49:25):
Yeah.
Speaker 6 (49:27):
So five people died after a panga carrying migrants capsized
off Del Mar, which is in North County, San Diego.
The search is on going. I believe another five are
still missing. One of those is a ten year old
girl from India, and Christie Nohan has said she wants
the DOJ to pursue death penalty charges against the smugglers
(49:51):
who brought these people over. These boats have been a
thing for a while, but this is not the first
of these tragedies. And it's obviously like we shouldn't lose
focus of the fact that someone's little child died, which
is horrific.
Speaker 4 (50:06):
Yeah, Yeah, tough news week as usual. I guess tough
news week.
Speaker 3 (50:14):
The only way to feel better is by fighting.
Speaker 4 (50:17):
But we did report the news we did, we reported
the news.
Speaker 5 (50:29):
It could Happen Here is a production of cool Zone Media.
For more podcasts from cool Zone Media, visit our website
coolzonmedia dot com, or check us out on the iHeartRadio app,
Apple Podcasts, or wherever.
Speaker 4 (50:41):
You listen to podcasts.
Speaker 5 (50:42):
You can now find sources for it could Happen here
listed directly in episode descriptions. Thanks for listening.
Cool Media.
Speaker 2 (00:07):
This is it could happen here Executive Disorder, our weekly
newscast covering what's happening in the White House, the crumbling world,
and what it means for you. I'm Garrison Davis today,
joined by Mia Wong, James Stout, and Robert Evans. This episode,
we're covering the week of April thirtieth to May seventh.
Speaker 1 (00:23):
Yes, when you think of ed, you think about rigid
cylindrical things now flying at high speed towards miss That's
a bad way to introduce the facts. There's now a
war going on between India and Pakistan. I don't know
what else are we supposed to do? How are we
supposed to go into this? Pakistan and India are are shooting.
Speaker 3 (00:45):
Yeah's okay, okay, I'm going to attempt to do a
very very very very brief Please God like do not
let this be the extent of your knowledge about this conflict.
But yeah, okay, here is one paragraph about this. So
when India gains and Pakistan eventually gained independence from the
(01:07):
UK and the British Empire, there was the partition. This
is a process in which millions died and India and
Pakistan were split into two states.
Speaker 1 (01:17):
Millions die as a result of the disruption to infrastructure
and as a result of mascular.
Speaker 3 (01:22):
Yeah, and again people fleeing, like back and forth between
the two places. There's been a studio territory for fucking ever.
One of the most contentious parts of this has always
been Kashmir mahrg walk. There's a whole complicated thing here,
but so Kashmir was sort of split in two. There's
an almost entirely Muslim like territory that ends up under
(01:45):
the control of India, and India has waged a brutal
military occupation of Kashmir since they got it. Basically, it
ramps up and down in terms of like how bad
it is, but it's never good. Yeah, in this this
has been a constant source of attension between India and Pakistan,
where you know, Pakistan has played its card of like
(02:06):
we are like the defenders of Muslims in India. And
there's been a series of wars also, but this this
is one of the few times you can say there
are jedicides on both sides. And it's true because like
one of the wars that they fought was because of
the jedicide that Pakistan did in what became Bangladesh. So like,
there are no heroes in this story, there is only
(02:27):
I mean, I guess, like you know, there are people
resisting repression from both states.
Speaker 1 (02:31):
They are good people, but neither of the states have
clean ams.
Speaker 3 (02:34):
Yeah, but the states sucks shit, right, Like you know,
Let let's be clear about that. Kashmir is one of
the most militarized places in the world. It got much
much worse after twenty nineteen when India withdrew the autonomous
status that Kashmiir had had. This sparked a bunch of protests.
They're horribly repressed. There's been staggering numbers of people have
(02:54):
died over the past like thirty years. There look a
lot of like Hesbra's acxis, the outside world has been
cut off. It's difficult to get people like in to it.
And obviously, you know, the thing about occupations is that
there's been a very very long running series of sort
of insurgencies and militant groups in Kashmir of various kinds.
Pakistan has funded some of these groups as a way
(03:18):
to sort of like poke a stick at India, and
in late April a group killed twenty odd twenty six
I think, yeah, twenty twenty six, I think yeah, I
think it's the final number, like Hindu tourists in Kashmir.
It's worth noting that there's no actual evidence that Pakistan
(03:39):
is behind this, but no, but that's India's claim. Yeah,
that's India's claim. And this is causings to get really
really bad in Kashmir itself, which is the part of
this I think has gotten lost in a lot of
the discussions here, which is like like if you if
you read statements from from like I mean like, A,
there's just been like an incredible intensification of oppression, and
b if you read statements from Indian officials there, they're
(04:01):
just straight up talking about quote like Indian style final
solutions for Kashmir. It's completely unhinged. The Indian state has
gone into this, I mean, like, you know, it's it's Modi, right.
Modi is running probably the world's most effective fascist government
and his thing is always like a huge part of
it has always been specifically about like wanting to repress Muslims,
and this, you know, has has kicked the homophobia into
(04:24):
an absolute fever pitch. And the product of this is
that they have started doing strikes inside of Pakistan. I'm
going to pass it over to Robert and talk about
like what does have looked like and what this conflict
has been.
Speaker 1 (04:35):
Yeah. So, and it's important to know that during this
terrorist attack, one of the big things that is alleged
is that husbands were executed in front of their wives. Yeah,
that is that is going to be relevant for the
name of the operation that India is in the process
of carrying out right now. Prior to in the immediate
wake of that attack, everyone knew some shit was going
(04:56):
to go down on the border. India was going to
do some thing, in part because India said they were
going to do something. Right.
Speaker 4 (05:04):
JD.
Speaker 1 (05:04):
Vance, the Peacemaker, as we call him, I don't believe
anyone else has ever been called that in the history
of government or popular media. So, yeah, that seems like
a good nickname for him. Went to India like a
day or two before this all happened to calm things down.
This is often making a visit to the pope or
to tell Mody do whatever. Like, we don't know actually
what he said. Some people are like Vance must have
(05:25):
given him the go ahead. I think it's just as
likely Vance was like Hey, we don't really want a
war right now? Can he calm shit down? And Mody
didn't listen or that Vance just didn't even have anything
meaningful to say. We actually don't know at the moment.
But last night India started carrying out what they are
calling Operation Sindoor Si Indo r is how it is
(05:45):
generally anglicized. The name of the operation comes from. Again,
I mentioned a little earlier that during that terrorist attack
in Kashmir, Hindumen were killed in front of their wives.
Sindoor is a word that refers to this kind of
color or die that I believe it's like a bridal
thing that like women put in I think it's in
their hair. But it's a reference to something that is
(06:08):
part of like a traditional Hindu wedding and something that
the bride does. And so it was specifically named this
in order to make it very clear. This is vengeance
for that attack, right, Like, that's why it was named
what it was. Okay, does that all make sense? Yeah, sorry,
I've got here. Sindor is the Hindi word for vermilion,
which is the red pignant Hindu women apply to their forehead. Right,
So like that, and so it's it's a reference also
(06:30):
to the fact that these terrorists are said to have
like shot their victims in the forehead, right, So there's
there's a lot going on there basically, Yeah, but that's
what's relevant. So when it comes to this what's happening,
first off, perfectly reasonable to call what's happening war. India
has launched cross border strikes. They appear to have launched
both cruise missiles and air strikes using modern jets.
Speaker 5 (06:53):
Right.
Speaker 1 (06:53):
Pakistan has responded with modern military air defenses. What we
can safely say right now is that this is the
first full twenty first century here on peer military action.
And I know, as came up in the meeting, people
are going to say, well, Ukraine, not entirely Ukraine and Russia.
There is a degree to which that is true, because
(07:15):
Ukraine is armed by states that are peer or more
than peer to Russia in terms of military technology. But
Ukraine does not have an industrial base that is in
any way comparable to Russia's. They're not capable of manufacturing
the weaponry that they need to compete with Russia on
the battlefield on their own. That's why international aid has
been so critical Pakistan and India are both effectively peers
(07:37):
in that they both do purchase weaponry a lot from
other countries, but they also have domestic arms industries, and
they have potent domestic militaries that are armed to a
comparable standard. Right, and so there's a few things happening here.
I do not want to lose count of the fact
that people are dying. Obviously, civilians died in that attack
(07:57):
in Kashmir. At the moment, it looks like the death
toll from the initial Indian strikes is somewhere around forty.
Pakistan is claiming the vast majority of those are civilians.
India is claiming that they only hit infrastructure associated with
the terrorist group that they believe carried out the attacks
in Kashmir that they claim is being supported by Pakistan.
There is substantial evidence the majority of the dead are civilians.
(08:21):
People have claimed that large chunks of their families were
wiped out in these strikes. I don't see any reason
to doubt that, knowing how air strikes work. A good
number of the dead, though, have also occurred as a
result of cross border artillery fire, and it's unclear to
me if India and Pakistan have had a full on
artillery duel across the border, or if this is Pakistan's
artillery firing back in response to the air strikes, that
(08:44):
part is unclear. There are also videos where you could
hear small arms fire, so machine guns and the like,
and reports that that is coming from Pakistan's side too.
It's possible there is a cross border direct arm engagement.
It's possible no one died as a result of the
small arms fire, given the distances that this is occurring
at right, that the only nets have been due to
field artillery and due to missile stripes, right, that seems
(09:07):
likely at this point. It's possible the death toll is
much higher than forty, but that's somewhere around there is
what's been confirmed right now. Now we have talked about
the deaths. Obviously, the biggest concern is the loss in
human life. Here, I am going to talk about what
this means on a military level, because that is relevant
both how this conflict is going to proceed and how
(09:28):
future conflicts are going to proceed, because we have not
seen a peer on peer fight like this before in
this century, right, So one of the more important things
as to how this has preceded is that a number
of the jets that India launched across the border are
what are called refalls our afal E. This is a
French fighter jet. It is broadly considered to be equivalent
(09:50):
to an F eighteen super Hornet. Now, I say that
if you go online and you listen to people who
are nerds about fighter jets, they will pull a knife
on you for claiming that.
Speaker 5 (10:02):
Right.
Speaker 1 (10:02):
There are major differences between the two airframes. One of
them is that the Refall is a larger plane, which
means it's theoretically capable. Not theoretically, it is capable of
a significantly higher payload. However, there's a couple of problems
that come with that. One is that the super Hornet
not only is it a smaller craft, but it is
built for carrier duty, which means it's wings fold. Yeah,
you can fit more of them on a carrier. They
(10:24):
take off and land more easily from a carrier, or
a fall can take off and land from a carrier,
but it has to have a different load out right.
The other issue, a super Hornet can stay supersonic with
its full payload for longer periods of time. That means
that it can be breaking the sound barrier consistently, not
just using its after burner for like a quick burst
of speed. That matters because the faster you're going, the
(10:45):
harder you are.
Speaker 4 (10:46):
To shoot down.
Speaker 1 (10:47):
The primary erit ground package it has is what's called
a hammer and that's an acronym hammer. I don't know
what it stands for off the top of my head,
but they are between two hundred and fifty and one
thousand pounds each. Right, these are their air to ground
men that they are equipped with standard. It's possible India
has a separate load out for them. I don't actually know.
This is their standard armament. Now. They can only have
(11:09):
their full complement if they're not going supersonic, so they
cannot go supersonic for a comparable period of time to
a super Hornet if they have a full compliment. From
a military technology standpoint, the biggest news from the initial
stage of the strike is that at least one of
these refalls has been destroyed. There's decent evidence that potentially
another two. If India lost three of these jets they
(11:32):
have thirty six. That is a meaningful degradation of their
entire air force capability to strike. Right. Losing these jets
and they cannot be replaced on any kind of timeframe
that is comparable to how quickly they're being shot down.
Pakistan is claiming significantly more that they Pakistan's claim is
that they've downed three rafalls, one MiG twenty nine, one
(11:53):
SU thirty MKI and at least one Israeli made herondrone.
People generally say Pakistan is probably exaggerating. However, French authorities
have confirmed at least one rafall, and there's two more
than possibilities that are being looked into. It's possible three
planes were downed, but only one was a refall. We
don't really know yet, right, but even one is a
meaningful loss, and the fact that it was downed says
(12:16):
a couple of things. One thing is that there's a
decent chance what I suspect we might hear, especially if
three of these went down, is that India sent these
things off with a full strike package, so they were
not able to go as fast as they normally can,
and thus we're not able to evade Pakistan's anti air defenses. Right,
that may be what happened. The other thing that we're
(12:36):
seeing here is that Pakistan is equipped. They buy the
best part and Pakistan has a lot of S three
hundreds and S four hundreds, I believe, which are like
what we've seen in Ukraine. Those have had a very
mixed operational history in terms of their capability to take
out modern aircraft. Pakistan also has a lot of PL
fifteen radar guided anti air missiles. These are Chinese anti
(12:57):
aircraft missiles. They have never been used in combat before.
If you're a nerd for like modern military technology, one
of the things people have been talking about in that
field for a long time is like, how are these
going to function? And we just know that they've been
used because wreckage from them has been found and photographed
and people who are experts in these missiles online have
confirmed this is from this weapons package. It is very
(13:20):
likely that the Rafal that was down was downed by
this missile, and if more than one was down, that
they were all downed by these missiles. So that tells
us a lot about the comparable capabilities of both this
modern Western fighter that the French are selling and of
this Chinese anti aircraft missile. Right, and so that's really
relevant if we're looking at both how this conflict is
going to proceed, Because I don't want to be coming
(13:42):
up from this bloodless like, Oh, I'm just interested in
the military strategy part. This is relevant because if India
has lost three of these advanced fighters that they cannot
replace on any kind of comparable timeframe in the first
few hours of strikes, that suggests one of two potential
future outcomes. Number One, the tempo of use of advanced
(14:02):
aircraft in this war is going to change considerably as
it drags into the next stages, right, because they simply
can't maintain that tempo. That can't continue to take those
sort of risks, and that either means moving on to
a lot more ground engagements between infantry, between tanks between artillery,
like direct face to face shit, or a potential for
(14:22):
escalating things to the next level. And the only next
level higher than where we're at is nuclear, Right. I
don't think that is the likeliest outcome. I do not
think a nuclear exchange between Pakistan and India is the
likeliest thing at this point. However, the rate at which
India is a tritting air assets means that they're going
to have to make a choice in the not too
distant future. Right, Although it's also worth noting we don't
(14:45):
know entirely the degree to which Pakistan's anti air defenses
have been attreated by this. Right, there's a lot of
open there's a lot of unknown unknowns and known unknowns here. Right.
As our good friend Rumsfeld would say, I will say
the other issue here, if there is a nuclear ext change,
it's going to be the greatest humanitarian catastrophe of the century.
That doesn't mean it's going to be a nuclear war
(15:07):
across the entire world, and that shouldn't be your first concern.
Your first concern should be that that would still mean
millions of deaths in India and Pakistan, potentially at least
hundreds of thousands.
Speaker 5 (15:16):
Right.
Speaker 1 (15:16):
The concern is not they start, so everyone else does,
it's they start, and thus the worst humanitarian disaster since
World War two occurs.
Speaker 4 (15:24):
Yeah.
Speaker 6 (15:24):
I mean some of the most densely populated cities on
Earth are in this region. Like a strike in any
major city that would be devastating.
Speaker 1 (15:31):
Yeah, a strike in Islamabad would be the worst thing
that's happened, possibly since the Holocaust, in terms of like
human death told due to human actions.
Speaker 6 (15:40):
Yeah, it's pretty bad.
Speaker 4 (15:42):
I know.
Speaker 6 (15:42):
India claimed that they were launching a quote non escalatory
strike in it so much as that means shit.
Speaker 1 (15:48):
Yes.
Speaker 6 (15:48):
They also claimed that they PL fifteen didn't have its
intercept ahead, which I guess the French intelligence refuted.
Speaker 1 (15:54):
Yeah, and this is all There's a lot that's unknown
about kind of how these weapons have performed still, but
these are in terms of both how this conflict is
going to proceed and how future conflicts will proceed. These
are things you should be looking at because these weapons
platforms there. This is important in terms of what war
is going to continue to look like.
Speaker 3 (16:12):
I think it's also worth noting a couple of things.
One is that this is by far the largest like
clash that these countries have had in a long time.
But also like there have been like periodic like cross
border skirmishes around Casume for a while now, right like
there was a pretty big flare up in twenty twenty
that kind of less than twenty twenty one, And so
(16:32):
there is a chance that this doesn't turn into a
full scale war and that you get something more like
what happened sort of recently with Israel and Ran, where
they like bomb each other a few times and then
everyone sort of packs up their bags and goes home
and continues to like poke each other with militant groups
instead of it being like tanks. And I think that
(16:55):
is like orders of magnitude more likely than like nukes flying. Yeah,
just it's sort of like, yeah, like the chance at
which these people start shooting dukes to each other is
not very high.
Speaker 4 (17:06):
Like yes, just like in.
Speaker 3 (17:07):
The history of nuclear weapons too, you have to understand that,
like some of the most unhinged people who have ever lived,
like Curtis le May, like the US and the Soviets
never did it, like Mao Mao and the Soviets never
did it, Like apartheid South Africa had nuclear weapons and
never use them. Some of the worst people who have
ever lived have had access to the nukes, have never
fired them. The odds that you're gonna die in nuclear
(17:29):
fire are very very, very very very low. It's not
good now, everything that's happening here is very bad. But
like you do not need to be like living in
existential terror of like fire raining from the sky. That's
not like a reasonable reaction to this, and I've been
seeing a lot of that.
Speaker 1 (17:45):
So no, it's it's far from the likeliest outcome, and
your primary concern should be to people who are living
there right now.
Speaker 4 (17:53):
Yeah, yeah, right.
Speaker 1 (17:55):
You know, it's worth noting that the nineteen ninety nine
and the Cargo War, that was not an insignal death toll, right,
Like you're talking probably like certainly more than a thousand,
I think one thousand to a couple one thousand people,
So that would not be that's not certainly not out
of the question without it escalating in that way. I
(18:15):
think the primary concern that you always have, and why
I bring up weapons systems, is that countries think in
terms of stuff like this a lot. This is a
big part of why we get World War one.
Speaker 4 (18:24):
Right.
Speaker 1 (18:24):
You have these nations that are arming, and they're always
concerned with how do my weapons compare to my neighbors
if we go to war. Now, I feel pretty good
about where I'm at, and if I wait another two years,
maybe they'll be in a better position. And thinking like
that is part of the planning that's going on in
these states, and the planning about when do we escalate
and how do we escalate? Right, do we move to
(18:45):
a point where we've got masses of infantry shooting at
each other, Well, maybe if we can't risk the continued
attrition of our advanced air assets, we do that, or
maybe we make another decision. That's why it's relevant to
know about this stuff, not because you want to nerd
out over who's got the coolest missile, who's got the
coolest planes, but because that is very much how states think.
Right anyway, before we're going to add to tight this
(19:06):
back to the executive dysfunction, because that is what this
is about, yea, not the current Wars podcast. In the
immediate wake of all of this, President Trump was asked about, Hey,
how about these two nuclear armed states going to war?
What do you think about that? And he gave a,
you know, just a traditionally eloquent, you know, Donald Trump response,
(19:28):
It's a shame we just heard about it. I guess
people knew something was going to happen based on a
little bit of the past. They've been fighting for a
long time. I just hope it ends quickly, me too, buddy, correct,
I guess I guess they've been fighting for a long time. Okay, anyway,
(19:49):
let's go to ads.
Speaker 4 (20:02):
All right, we are back.
Speaker 2 (20:04):
I'm gonna talk now about some other horrifying geopolitical news. Hey,
this is Garrison from Friday May ninth. I have a
correction to make on the original copy of this episode.
I made an error in saying Greta Thunberg was aboard
a humanitarian aid ship off the coast of Italy that
was airstriked by Israel. The ship was indeed attacked, but
(20:28):
she was not on that ship. I watched a video
of her discussing the attack and it sounded first person,
and then we recorded shortly thereafter. But now it's clear
she was not on this ship but instead planned to
board later that day on the way to Gaza as
a part of the humanitarian aid organization the Freedom Flotilla Coalition.
More than a dozen other aid workers were aboard the
(20:50):
vessel when it was hit, and this relates to the
larger humanitarian aid crisis in Gaza. Now back to the episode.
The past two months, Israel has forcibly cut off all food, water, machines, supplies,
and other humanitarian aid to Gaza, starving the Palatinian people.
As not Naho continues to reject ceasefire deals. Reports from
(21:11):
the UN say that Gaza will run out of food
in days.
Speaker 1 (21:14):
Yep, I mean it looks like a starvation genocide. I
don't know how else to phrase this. There's really nothing else.
This isn't the time to mince words like every piece
of evidence suggests this is a starvation genocide being carried out,
that they're trying to starve this population to death or
until they all leave, which is the same. Genocide does
not necessarily mean you kill everyone. It is the forced
(21:34):
killing and or displacement of a population.
Speaker 2 (21:37):
Yeah, Israel says that the Palestinians still have food for
a few months, but the UN and other aid organizations
say that is not true.
Speaker 4 (21:46):
Now.
Speaker 2 (21:46):
Last Sunday night, Israel's Security cabinet approved a plan to
reoccupy and hold the Gaza Strip if a new Seaspire
deal isn't reached by May fifteenth, while Yahoo and Israeli
officials continue to undermine negotiations for a permanent ceasefire. This
plan is called Gideon's Chariots.
Speaker 1 (22:06):
Jesus fucking Christ.
Speaker 2 (22:08):
The plan is for the IDF to invade with four
to five armored infantry divisions, mobilizing uproots of seventy thousand reservists,
which would gradually occupy and secure basically the entire Gaza Strip.
According to Israel's Finance Minister, this IDF occupation would be permanent,
not even pulling back with the release of any remaining hostages,
(22:30):
though other Israeli officials disagree on this and say this
would be a temporary occupation. Pretty hard to take their
word on that all remaining buildings would be destroyed, flattening
the entirety of the strip, just like Rafa and the
northern side. Amir Aviv, the founder of the Israel Defense
and Security Forum think tank and a former deputy commander
(22:51):
of the Israeli forces, say, quote, this is the only
way to eradicate Hamas militarily and governmentally is to take
over Gaza and to conquer the area and destroy them unquote.
There's some added complications with like legally like occupying Gaza
under the Geneva Convention, a formal occupation would require Israel
(23:12):
to have the capacity to operate as an official government
authority in this region. Now, there's no indication that Israel
will like follow the Geneva Convention, as they haven't.
Speaker 4 (23:22):
Yeah, it's Israel.
Speaker 6 (23:23):
They never have given a shit, Yeah don't.
Speaker 1 (23:25):
I don't see why we'd expect that.
Speaker 2 (23:27):
But if they do occupy, they they would be more
like liable for the well being of the Palestinians that
would be inside the territory and the IDEF doesn't have
a plan for this. They are planning to forcedly relocate
around two million Palestinians to a single quote unquote humanitarian
area which is positioned in the rubble of Ratha, where
(23:49):
secure quote unquote compounds are being constructed to distribute food
and supplies to Palestinians who are screened and approved as
not being members of Hamas. This area will be managed
by private US companies and a quote unquote new international foundation,
which works with Israel and the United States established aid
(24:12):
organizations in the un announced that they would not be
participating in running these quote unquote compounds, calling this a
tactic to give the Israeli military even more power over
how aid is distributed, saying in a statement quote it
contravenes fundamental humanitarian principles and appears designed to reinforce control
over life sustaining items as a pressure tactic as part
(24:33):
of a military strategy. It is dangerous driving civilians into
militarized zones to collect rations, threatening lives, including those of
humanitarian workers, while further entrenching forced DISPLACEMENTEEAH an Israeli official
said the only alternative to being moved to this quote
unquote humanitarian area would be to leave Gaza quote unquote
(24:55):
voluntarily to other countries, citing Trump's plan to resettle displaced Powerians.
Speaker 4 (25:01):
Robert James Miya, do you want to comment on this?
Speaker 6 (25:06):
It's not much to say, so, like it's they're just
saying the thing that they've been going for for a
while now, which is the removal of all panasty to
get people from the Goddess trip, either in body bags
or to live somewhere else.
Speaker 3 (25:17):
I guess it's just straight up a genocide.
Speaker 4 (25:19):
Like they're describing a genocide.
Speaker 1 (25:21):
Yeah, there's no doubting it. Like I don't even know,
Like what is it? What is there to say? Right?
Like at this point, I almost think other than obviously
documenting what's happening is important, the only important thing to
try to talk about it is like how can this
be stopped? And or how can a degree of like
what does justice look like at some point down the line?
(25:45):
What should be done?
Speaker 4 (25:46):
You know?
Speaker 1 (25:47):
Like these are questions to ask, but like to just
like I don't know what to keep saying other than like, yep,
they're trying to wipe out Gaza like.
Speaker 2 (25:57):
Well, and specifically the use of these like quote unquote compounds,
You're like rounding up and keeping people inside one secure.
Speaker 6 (26:04):
Area, concentrating the main camps.
Speaker 2 (26:06):
Like come on, guys, you're just setting up camps for
Palestinians on the south side of the strip and like
that's all that this is as they reoccupy and hold
the entirety to quote unquote eliminate Hamas. So this Monday,
Trump's going to start a three day visit to Saudi
Arabia Cutter and the United Arab Emirates. This is while
the US government has taken a backfoot on Gaza negotiations
(26:27):
while still backing up net Yahoo and any actions taken
by the Israeli military. Yeah, so we will know more
about what Israel is actually going to do immediately in
the region in like a week's time. Though it looks
like they are going to be going forward with this
May fifteenth reoccupation plan.
Speaker 5 (26:47):
Cool.
Speaker 6 (26:47):
Well, yeah, so more good news from me. Immigration update.
The New York Times today on the this is Wednesday
the seventh is reporting that the Trump administration is as
soon as today. I checked this before recording. The plane
haven't taken off planning to ship people to migrants to Libya.
(27:09):
The nationalities of people being renditioned there are not clear,
but my guess would be that these are third party
nationals that the US can't deport to their home countries
like they previously deported these people to Panama and to Elsabadov.
If you're not familiar with migrant detention in Libya, conditions
are horrific, like among the worst things that can happen
(27:31):
to people. The situation in Libya is currently the country
is divided between the Tripoli government, which is recognized by
the UN and which the US has formal government government
relationships with, and Hafta's government based in Benghazi, which the
Trump regime has associated with. Before. We have covered conditions
(27:52):
in Libyan migrant detention camps before, which i'll chack in
the show notes. And we also talked about the dangers
faced by people leaving Libya towards the EU in a
different episode, which I also list. But to recap, reports
document starvation, rape, murder, slavery, and organ harvesting occurring in Libya.
(28:12):
Mass graves, including one last year that was found with
sixty five bodies in it, are not uncommon to quote
from David Yambio. David Yambio is someone who was He
was sold and then forced to fight in a militia
in Libya, and I think, I believe he escaped and
he is now in I think he's in Italy, but
he's ready to be outspoken on this stuff. The slave
(28:34):
trade is alive and thriving in Libya. It thrives in
the silence of nations, in the shadows of complicit systems,
and then the unchecked racism that dehumanizes black lives in
other immigration US The government's attempt to delay Rumsa Oztek's
return to Vermont was rejected by the second Circuit, so
that means that she will have to be returned to
(28:57):
She was arrested in Massachusetts, if you remember, for writing
an op.
Speaker 4 (29:00):
At Tufts University. Yeah.
Speaker 6 (29:01):
Yeah, moved across state borders to Vermont and from their
central Louisiana. So the habeas case was transferred to Vermont
and as a rule that the government cannot de laboring
her back there anymore. Another flight containing eighty one migrants
left Panama yesterday at the United States expense. This is
(29:22):
the continuation of a plan that the Biaen administration installed
in summer last year, and the Trump administration has continued
whereby the US funds deportations from Panama. Meanwhile, Tokyo Weekender
in Japan is reporting that the United States is asking
people to show five years of social media history in
order to obtain a student visa, just to put that
(29:46):
in perspective for people. So you have to either those
accounts are deleted or no longer used, you have to
declare them all on your form. If you're applying for
student visa and you're at the younger end of a
traditional aged undergraduate, you could have to list every social
mediacount you've had since you were twelve on this form.
And the US has required disclosure for a while, but
(30:07):
like it hasn't been a practical thing. I haven't really
ever heard from any one of anybody's visa being denied
or asylum being denied based on social media posting. But
this is now something that that they are asking people
to disclose.
Speaker 2 (30:20):
Well and requiring, not like requiring it, not asking it
is it is. It is going to be like an
enforced requirement in a way that before it really hasn't been.
It's the term that the law firm used in this
piece is like in the past, this has been mostly
quote unquote negligible. Yeah, and now this is something that
the Department of State is really being adamant about.
Speaker 6 (30:43):
Yeah, which will massively delay the time to process visa
applications on top of everything else.
Speaker 2 (30:50):
People in Japan have compared this to two policies similar
to that of China's Cultural Revolution.
Speaker 4 (30:56):
Yeah.
Speaker 6 (30:57):
I mean I've been to other countries to be clear,
where they open up your social media and look at
it when you're entering. But this is not a thing
that anyone has ever associated with the United States. Finally,
I guess the Freedom of the Press Foundation got some
documentary release under a federal Freedom of Information Act. The
outline that the intelligence community did not believe that the
(31:17):
Maduro regime was controlling tender Agua, which was one of
the claims that Trump administration has made in its invocation
of the Alien Enemies Act. Right, So it's just kind
of I think most people who pay any attention to
the situation weren't really buying that, but but it's showing
that this was documented by the US intelligence community as well.
(31:39):
So yeah, any anything to add that the Libya stuff
is bleak like it hasn't got much coverage in the US.
We have covered it before, but the European Union is
already complicit in the terrible treatment of migrants in Libya.
And oh yeah, and for ages it has happened for
ages like the so called Libyan Coast Guard of bringing
people back to Libya and like literally set them from
(32:00):
shelters to human traffickers. I mean, we've more or less
kind of lined up behind some of the worst places
on earth, like in terms of migrant detention, right with
SECOT and this.
Speaker 2 (32:13):
Yeah, more and more families are figuring out that like
their family members have been sent to SCOT, like people
who have not been named an official documentation. They've been
able to search through these propaganda videos and identify more people,
so they're launching court cases to have them returned, people
who very clearly have had no gang affiliation. Not that
(32:33):
that should even matter when you're sending people to the
forever prison.
Speaker 6 (32:37):
Yeah. I saw one guy we've had a Donald Duck tattoo,
and that was I guess the decisive claim there. Right,
there's a form that ICE agents fill out, and there's
a number of points they have to a mass I
believe it's three points and one of the things that
can allow you to a mass three points. It's like,
I think two points come from a tattoo, which which
they decide to be gang affiliated and.
Speaker 1 (32:58):
No, and again like they seem to just be saying
tattoos period, right, Like anything is trindagua, right.
Speaker 2 (33:06):
Yeah, right, people who have like soccer tattoos, people who
have I love my mom and dad tattoos, It doesn't matter.
Speaker 1 (33:11):
There's an autism awareness tattoos.
Speaker 6 (33:14):
Yeah, some guy had an autism awareness Yeah. That one
like haunts me because I have met young neurodivergent people
and their families who are bringing them to the US
to get what they thought was a better standard of care,
right to allow their children to progress and have a
beautiful life. Yeah, man, that one like, like, I honestly
(33:36):
really struggle with that. I have spent lots and lots
and lots of time with Venezuelan migrants and like they're
my friends. And that particular one, like people whose children
have any need for medical care right are overrepresented the
migrant population because they just can't access it there, and
so they upend their whole lives and carry their children
(33:57):
across the continent to give them a chance at a
better life life and like that one is particularly hard
for me to win US. I did just want to
mention on the topic of asylum. I have heard from
so many migrants stuck in Mexico who are having a
god awful time to include you know, robbery, kidnapping, sexual violence,
(34:19):
of all of the things that we know can happen
to migrants on the migrant trail. Because they have no
pathway to get to the US, they're now just stuck there. Right.
Mexico continues to take migrants and move them back south
if it catches them near the United States border, even
if some of them move up as far as Mexico City,
right because they have access to services there, and then
(34:40):
again sent back south to places where migrants have routinely
been murdered. So I know, we're focusing a lot on
migrants being kicked out of the US deported, renditioned. Conditions
for migrants who aspired to come to the United States
who took great risks to be Americans and are stuck
in Mexico are also dire.
Speaker 2 (35:00):
All right, Let's go and break and then come back
for a few more updates before we close out.
Speaker 1 (35:05):
Yeah, we're back. And wait a second, is that is
that the tariff.
Speaker 3 (35:21):
Song Locky z b Jazz.
Speaker 6 (35:31):
Lock Locky Jazz by jazz Bob.
Speaker 1 (35:38):
All right, guys, I actually don't know. Do we have
anything to say about tariffs this week?
Speaker 4 (35:41):
Yeah, we actually actually do us on Turff so good.
Speaker 1 (35:44):
I'm just we gotta get all of our use out
of that song because again, we really do. We really
had to suspend the whole team's healthcare to pay for it.
It was monstrously expensive. The full cut of that song
is seventeen and a half hours. We actually brought in
the remaining members of Fleetwood Mac as well as several
Rolling Stones.
Speaker 4 (36:03):
It was.
Speaker 1 (36:03):
It just just disastrous.
Speaker 6 (36:07):
So far, attempts to resurrect Joe's drama have failed, but
we have spent million.
Speaker 1 (36:11):
We we only use the clip with our friend the
Narcissist Cookbook. But yeah, there there is a twenty six
minute drum solo with the guy from Rush geedty Lee.
He's still alive, right, was it, geedty Lee?
Speaker 5 (36:22):
Yeah?
Speaker 1 (36:22):
Yeah, yeah, he's still alive. The joke works. The joke works,
not cheap, not cheap.
Speaker 6 (36:28):
Yeah. Yeah, it's much like the dire Wolf thing. We've
put Joe's drama's DNA into another court. Yeah, man, and
does he worried. We've released him into the wild and
we're going to see how he developed.
Speaker 1 (36:37):
So far, he just has a lot of blood clots.
Speaker 4 (36:39):
But we have we're home fielder on the case though.
He's training him up. Well, we'll get him. We'll get
him on.
Speaker 1 (36:44):
Here, all right, Yeah, yeah, pariffs good bad?
Speaker 5 (36:47):
What do you think you.
Speaker 6 (36:50):
Okay?
Speaker 4 (36:50):
So all right, let's let let's let's let's actually do
this ship.
Speaker 3 (36:53):
So is it. One of the things that we've been
talking about along on this show is the Deminimus exemption,
which was this exemption that formerly allowed you was particularly
used in trade with China where you could, like if
you were setting a package that was under like seven
hundred dollars, like it didn't have to like go through
customs in a way that you would normally would have
to do it.
Speaker 4 (37:11):
That shit's gone. That ended on Friday of last week.
Speaker 3 (37:15):
This has already skyrocketed the cost of doing imports of
shit from China because huge amounts of stuff being shipped
from China was you know, like reliant on shipping it
in packages that were exactly six hundred and ninety nine dollars,
and you know, this has like like Temu's entire business
model has changed basically every night, where like they're no
longer shipping stuff in from China, they're only selling stuff
(37:35):
from like American distributors. This is going to have catastrophic
effects on so many supply chains you've never even thought
of in the weeks to come, because again, there are
so many different like tiny screws and shit, like just
like really really small items that you used to be
able to get from China for like fucking five dollars
(37:56):
for like one hundred of them that now have unbelievable
tariff rates on them and have to go through a
really really confluted customs process. There have already been sort
of massive supply Chaine disruptions in a large number of industries.
It's going to continue to get worse. Sophie was talking
about metal imports hitting the construction industry because there's you know,
there's terraffs on a bunch of different kinds of metal,
(38:16):
as we've covered on the show, aluminum.
Speaker 1 (38:18):
God knows what's gonna happen to diet coke.
Speaker 7 (38:20):
We'll put it in lads, like God intended maybe that'll
finally change Trump's outlook. Is when his diet coat heap. Yeah, yeah,
Trump and Musk both become inoperable.
Speaker 1 (38:31):
You know, Garrison, we will know when that's hit when
the missiles are in the air, like oh shitty ran out.
Speaker 2 (38:38):
Federal occupation of the Coca Cola headquarters in Atlanta, Georgia.
Speaker 3 (38:42):
Yeah, so you know, and this is also like this,
this is going to have a profound impact on Chinese economy. Again,
we're still in sort of the waiting room until sort
of Midsummer when all of the rest of the tariffs
that were supposed to go into effect go back into
effect and literally everything collapses.
Speaker 1 (38:58):
You're probably three to five weeks out from really starting
to see it hit hard in like the stuff you
buy on a day to day basis, right, People who
are doing stuff like remodeling houses or building houses are
starting to notice now. I think people car prepare businesses
and one of people have to order parts. That is
starting to hit. But your grocery store that's really going
(39:19):
to be most noticeable somewhere between three and five weeks
from now, maybe sooner, probably not much longer.
Speaker 3 (39:24):
Well, and other things are about to get sniffy and
the worse. So this has been talked about for a
long time. The buzz right now is that they're happening soon.
I don't know exactly what that means, but there has
been for a long long time. Trump has been talking
about doing tariffs on pharma, So congratulations, get excited for
all of your medication costing a lot more money. He
also put into place a one hundred percent terrafund foreign movies.
Speaker 1 (39:47):
Well we'll see, yes, yeah, but then he walked that back.
He had a conversation with John Voight and announced, Yeah,
they're getting to that hundred percent tariff on all movies.
Speaker 3 (39:58):
Yeah.
Speaker 6 (40:00):
No one knows what that means.
Speaker 4 (40:02):
How can you do that?
Speaker 1 (40:03):
Do a terrafun of movie? What are we talking about it?
Speaker 4 (40:06):
It's literally it's literally just like like he's doing terriffs
in the.
Speaker 3 (40:09):
Way that like there's that, but the guy for the
Wolf of Wall Street is like what guy walks out
of the room and goes short. Everything's ever touched Like
it's like that thing. Yeah, like he's gonna be terriffing
like fucking ocean currents in two months.
Speaker 1 (40:20):
The responses to it have been have been so funny
because Gavin Newsome, arch dipshit of the Democratic Party, was
immediately like, we love the idea of working with our
president to keep the film jobs in California.
Speaker 2 (40:32):
You know.
Speaker 1 (40:33):
Meanwhile, Trump immediately was like, well, maybe we won't do that,
I think because they're still at the very head of
the studio system. Some scary old mob type dudes, right,
and I think a few of them also.
Speaker 4 (40:46):
Tom Cruise is terrifying.
Speaker 1 (40:47):
Tom Cruise. Tom Cruise like, sat down, Donald. You know,
no one's heard from David Mskovich's wife in a long
ass time, and they don't have to hear from you either,
Like you don't want to fuck with me?
Speaker 3 (41:01):
Yeah?
Speaker 6 (41:02):
Even Trump believes he actually is the mission impossible guy.
Speaker 4 (41:06):
And you could convince them, you could.
Speaker 6 (41:09):
Somebody convinced him, Yeah, something.
Speaker 1 (41:12):
Somebody convinced him to Nero's is like, didn't he reopen
Alcatraz after the Alcatraz film?
Speaker 6 (41:18):
Ad on the lyric, Yes, but.
Speaker 1 (41:20):
It was the it was the Clint Eastwood one and
not the much better Alcatraz film The Rock starring Sean
Connery and Nicholas Cage a banger ages perfectly watch it,
everyone watch it tonight reading any more news?
Speaker 3 (41:35):
Okay, there's more news though, unfortunately. Yeah, well okay, there
there's one funny thing, and there's the like the actual
news here is part of what's going on here is
just everything is just chaos. And this is something that like,
I mean, I've had this conversation with a bunch of
people who work in shipping of the last couple of weeks.
Is that like it's just chaos, right, Like everything is
changing all the time. And this means every time one
of these things changes, a bunch of like the import
(41:55):
coaches and like suff just changes on the level of
like the customs people, and like just like like literally
the process of importing this stuff changes, and it's just
a complete fucking disaster. People are getting laid off constantly too,
so like every single part of the goverment that's supposed
to be doing this suddenly has less people. It's it's
an absolute rolling catash and for you will continue to
get worse. There's also good evidence that like they know
(42:18):
that it's gonna get worse. I'm gonna read this quote
from USA today, Well this is from Trump. I don't
think a beautiful baby and that's eleven years old needs
to have thirty dollars. Trump told Meet the Press House
Kirsten Welker, I think they can have three or four
dolls because what we're doing with China is just unbelievable.
We have a trade deficit of hundreds of billions of
dollars for China. I'm just saying, they don't need to
have thirty dollars. They can have belief. They don't need
(42:39):
to have one hundred and fifty pencils. They can have five,
five pencils.
Speaker 2 (42:43):
Everyone, five pencils and three dollars this Christmas. Imagine if
Joe Biden an now it's like, all right, we're gonna
have to cut down on Christmas gifts this year.
Speaker 4 (42:51):
We can't do it. Uh, the Fox News would be
like freaking the fuck out.
Speaker 2 (42:56):
We're like, Joe Biden's taking away your kid's Christmas and
the pencils and yeah who cares.
Speaker 4 (43:03):
Yeah, But I mean like like the.
Speaker 3 (43:04):
Actual SIS thing here is like yeah, no, like these
people understand that you're going to suffer. They don't give
a shit. We want you to suffer.
Speaker 4 (43:11):
Ye, the political project, Yeah, so you know, yeah, owning
the Libs anyway? Is that all for tariff talkbia? Yeah,
that's that's all we got on. That's how we got
on the tariffs.
Speaker 2 (43:23):
I am excited for for Trump to meet Ethan Hunt
on his last mission, So there's still hope.
Speaker 4 (43:29):
All right.
Speaker 2 (43:29):
I have a few more updates before we close out here.
One on the federal judge back and forth of last week.
US District judge blocked the Trump Admin's efforts via executive
order to require what they deem as proof of citizenship
to register to vote. The judge stated that this case
was about separation of powers and undue presidential interference in
how states in Congress run and regulate elections, writing, quote,
(43:53):
our Constitution in trusts Congress and the States, not the
President with the authority to regulate federal elections. No statutory
delgation of authority to the executive branch permits the President
to short circuit Congress's deliberative process by executive order. Yeah,
so we'll see how that develops for now. I'll also
be doing an update on the Save Act as it
makes its way through Congress as well, for those interested,
(44:15):
another kind of voting suppression bill that's getting a push
through This Tuesday, the Supreme Court upheld the trans military ban,
at least for now, it'll still process through appeals, but
the Trump administration is now allowed to enforce the ban,
which they previously couldn't because a lower court put the
enforcement on hold.
Speaker 3 (44:35):
Yeah, so I think the actual scariest part about that
is if you read the if you read the language
of what the court was talking about, they've been describing
it as like someone who thinks that like they are
a woman when they're actually a man, Like isn't someone
who can perform at like the standards of like honor
and whatever that like a soldier needs. And this is
I think a ramp up to the really really dangerous
thing that is coming, which is their attempt to just
(44:56):
straight up brand being trans as fraud.
Speaker 4 (44:59):
I mean, this is the this is the Trump Admin's argument, correct,
this is what they were writing.
Speaker 6 (45:03):
Yeah, yeah, this is the statement I guess that the
DoD is claiming that expressing a quote false gender identity
divergent from an individual sex can't satisfy the rigorous standards
necessarily for military service. And they specifically talk about a
soldier's commitment to an honorable, truthful, and disciplined lifestyle, even
in one's personal life, And they then go ahead to
(45:24):
claim that being trans inherently contradicts that.
Speaker 2 (45:29):
That's the Trump Admin's argument, which is going to be
like used to undermine transmitter rights in the future, possibly
threatening Title nine.
Speaker 4 (45:38):
Yeah.
Speaker 6 (45:39):
Yeah, it's very concerning.
Speaker 2 (45:41):
So the fact that they were able to like at
least at this point when this case in the Streame
court extremely worrying.
Speaker 4 (45:48):
Yeah.
Speaker 6 (45:50):
I will just say that if this impacts you someone
you care about, so when you know, you can reach
out to us. Obviously that's the third little we can
do about it. But we are here to listen to
report the news, and you can do that at cool
Zone tips at proton dot me. It's only an encrypted
(46:10):
email and to end, if it comes from an encrypted
email address to our encrypted email address.
Speaker 4 (46:16):
We are reading all of those.
Speaker 2 (46:17):
We may not respond to all of them, but we
are taking note of them and we'll report on stuff
in the future. The last thing I do want to
add is like a raid that happened last week in California.
Homeland Security Investigations ICE and Secret Service right at the
house in southern California looking for a man who months
ago posted flyers around Los Angeles last January warning about
(46:43):
ICE agents in the area with names, photos, and phone
numbers reading in Spanish. Quote careful with these faces.
Speaker 4 (46:50):
Quote. The Feds served a.
Speaker 2 (46:52):
Criminal search warrant on the home of this guy's parents,
even though he moved to New York last March. At
least fifty teen armored vehicles pulled up to this upscale
neighborhood with full militarized federal swat. They seized routers and
hard drives.
Speaker 6 (47:08):
Yeah, that's no great acting.
Speaker 2 (47:10):
As Director Todd Luins was on the scene for this operation.
He told Fox News that he took it personally that
someone would put a target on his agents in an
effort to interfere with them and put them at risk,
saying the person will be held accountable. What they're using
here is probably likely US Code one nineteen Protection of
Individuals performing certain duties. Whoever knowingly makes restricted personal information
(47:33):
about a covered person or a member of the immediate
family of that covered person publicly available with the intent
to threaten, intimidate, or incite the commission of a crime
of violence against that covered person or a member of
the immediate family. So this is likely what they're using.
Arguing that posting a photo on a flyer with the
person's name and phone number is enough to threaten, intimidate,
(47:56):
or facilitate the commission.
Speaker 4 (47:57):
Of a crime.
Speaker 6 (47:58):
Yeah, what comes hut covered persons as it is. That's
a good question, James. Uh, that's a screenshot, right, so
you can't click that.
Speaker 2 (48:06):
That is a screenshot and probably a question for a lawyer.
But they are they are arguing that that the ICE
agents like fall under this purview.
Speaker 6 (48:15):
Yes, the term covered person means a an individual designated
to Session one fourteen B, a grand dura, petty jura
witness or rather officer of the court, an informal witness
in a federal criminal investigation or prosecution, state or local
officer or employee whose restricted personal information is made publicly
available because of the participation in or assistant provided to
(48:36):
a federal criminal investigation. So it's part C.
Speaker 2 (48:40):
Yeah, so that's that's what they're going to argue. The
people's addresses weren't posted here. It was just their names
and photos. But ICE and HSI are being very protective
of the faces of the agents doing immigration raids and
student crackdowns right now. They're they're really nervous about about
agents possibly being targeted. So any attempt to identify these
(49:00):
as being treated as like a threat. A Homeland Security
spokesperson told Fox News quote, these pathetic activists are putting
targets on the backs of our law enforcement as they
shield Ms thirteen, Trendilagua and other vicious gangs at traffic,
women and children kidnapped for ransom, and poison Americans with
lethal drugs. These individuals will be held accountable for obstructing
the law and justice.
Speaker 4 (49:21):
This shouldn't be controversial.
Speaker 3 (49:25):
Yeah.
Speaker 6 (49:27):
So five people died after a panga carrying migrants capsized
off Del Mar, which is in North County, San Diego.
The search is on going. I believe another five are
still missing. One of those is a ten year old
girl from India, and Christie Nohan has said she wants
the DOJ to pursue death penalty charges against the smugglers
(49:51):
who brought these people over. These boats have been a
thing for a while, but this is not the first
of these tragedies. And it's obviously like we shouldn't lose
focus of the fact that someone's little child died, which
is horrific.
Speaker 4 (50:06):
Yeah, Yeah, tough news week as usual. I guess tough
news week.
Speaker 3 (50:14):
The only way to feel better is by fighting.
Speaker 4 (50:17):
But we did report the news we did, we reported
the news.
Speaker 5 (50:29):
It could Happen Here is a production of cool Zone Media.
For more podcasts from cool Zone Media, visit our website
coolzonmedia dot com, or check us out on the iHeartRadio app,
Apple Podcasts, or wherever.
Speaker 4 (50:41):
You listen to podcasts.
Speaker 5 (50:42):
You can now find sources for it could Happen here
listed directly in episode descriptions. Thanks for listening.
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Garrison Davis
James Stout
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