March 22, 2024 • 33 mins
Mia and James discuss the recent release of videos showing the HPG shooting down Turkish drones, as well as the arrival of MANPADS in Myanmar.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
Also media.
Speaker 2 (00:05):
Hi everyone, it's me James, just introducing this podcast. I'm
recording this the day after we recorded the episode to
today's Thursday, the twenty first of March. I wanted to
just update a couple of things and correct a couple
of things, so I've just listened through the episodes.
Speaker 3 (00:19):
I'm going to do that now.
Speaker 2 (00:20):
Firstly, I think I said Igler a couple of times
when I meant strella. It's the Strella portable surface to
our missiles have been refitted with new batteries in the
Syrian Civil Wars specifically, and I've included a link to
a document about that in the show notes. So apologies
for getting those two things confused. They're both I guess
former Soviet service to our missile systems. The other things
(00:43):
I wanted to mention are that a few like throughout
this episode, we've used manpads, right. That's kind of the
colloquial term or the official term really for person portable
anti aircraft systems, like it obviously doesn't mean that you
have to be a man to use one, certainly like
(01:03):
the fact that the hPG are using them and that
the Kurdish Freedom Movement are using them, obviously women can
use them, non binary folks can use them, to everyone
can use them. And finally, I just wanted to mention
that there have been some suggestions that the thing that
was used to shoot down the bay Ragtars was like
loitering munition, which is something that is often called a
(01:24):
suicide drone. In this case, it's not a loitering munition
that impacts something on the ground, but impact something on
the air. There's an Iranian system that does that, but
apparently it's possible to replicate that with a large number
of off the shelf or sort of commercially available pieces.
Speaker 3 (01:39):
So maybe that's what's going on.
Speaker 2 (01:41):
This episode was a little bit speculative, and we still
don't have lots of hard answers, but we hope you'll
enjoy it because it represents a change in a relationship
between the state and people who are not the state,
and that's why it's important.
Speaker 3 (01:52):
Okay, hope you enjoy.
Speaker 2 (01:54):
Hello, podcast fans, Welcome back to the podcast. I'm joined
today by my friend Mia Himea. Hello, and we are
talking about, of course, surface to wear missiles, a topic
that I'm sure is on the top of mind for
all of you as you drive to work this morning.
Where are we talking about surface to air missiles today? Well?
Today is it is Wednesday, the twentieth of March, and
(02:17):
today I'm sure maybe some of you would have seen
some of the most of you probably will not as
you go about your daily lives.
Speaker 3 (02:23):
That the k c K.
Speaker 2 (02:25):
The k c K is the group, the Kurdistan Communities Union,
the joint group between the various groups in the different
parts of Kurdistan. Right, So you have the PKK, You
have they in Syria, p KK in Turkey, right, the
p JACK in Iran. In the KK like brings all
(02:46):
these groups together?
Speaker 1 (02:47):
Do they?
Speaker 4 (02:48):
Is there a name?
Speaker 3 (02:49):
Do they?
Speaker 4 (02:49):
Is there like an Iraqi branch? That's the one that
I don't know. You have the yevishe the Azdi group? Right, yeah,
Kurdish one.
Speaker 2 (02:58):
I think everyone I will reconsider my statement. The people
who I have become aware of who are in Iraq,
who are who I know about journalistically, are Ksek people. Okay,
little little bit of smoke and mirrors feed there, but yeah,
the people, the people who who I know who are
(03:20):
in the Kurdistan Autonomous Region are Ksek. So I think
that I think most of the sort of people within
the Greater like Kurdish Freedom Movement.
Speaker 3 (03:33):
The Apoche people are KCK within Iraq.
Speaker 2 (03:36):
It is in the Kurdistan Autonomous Region, so like Iraqi
in a technical sense, but only only really in a
technical sense, Like when you go to the Kurdistan Autonomous Region,
you don't even do Iraqi immigration. You do Kurdistyan immigration,
which is nice because it's a lot easier. I was
there in October of twenty twenty three, and since February
(03:57):
of twenty twenty three, the KCK have an out. They
have shut down thirteen Turkish unmanned aerial vehicles, right, which
what you and I would call drones. And we're not
talking about drones like your friend has a drone and
they use it to film you at the beach drones.
We're talking about like bairaktar drones, which are it's an aircraft, right,
(04:20):
Like if you saw one, you would be like, oh,
there goes a plane.
Speaker 4 (04:24):
Yeah, it's like it's it's like the Turkish version of
the Predator drones and.
Speaker 2 (04:27):
The US users, Yeah, yeah, it's it's yeah, it's a
very similar thing. It's a very popular drone system actually, right,
they've sold bairaktars to. I think dozens of countries like
like they're I mean most all over, yeah, thirty one
countries that they've exported the bairaktar to, so they're very
widely used. They're kind of the the sort of drone
(04:48):
of choice for people who are just like buying on
the open market. Right. Karta uses them, Ukraine uses them
a lot, but even countries like I'm looking here Bikina
Faso has has biraugtars So what's notable about this is
they've also shot down a Kinchi's a kinchiese are like
the newer bairakta variant that they make a slightly different noise.
(05:09):
I've spent some time in places that are being attacked
by drones over the last year, and it's it's.
Speaker 3 (05:13):
A highly unpleasant experience.
Speaker 2 (05:15):
But people who are used to this, which I am,
I guess thankfully not, will tell you that they can
tell the difference the noise at least these drones to make.
But there was a kinchi, for instance, I believe it
was in a kinchi that did some of the attacks
that I was unfortunate enough to be nearby when I
was in ro In October. So what's notable about this
(05:37):
is like the k c K obviously, like they're a
non state actor, right because there is not a Kurdish state.
There is a Kurdish nation, one might argue, but it's
split between four states Iraq, Iran, Syria, and Turkey, and
so them being able to shoot down droned it's quite
(05:59):
remind uckable.
Speaker 4 (06:01):
Yeah, no, one's none of the non state actors really
in the last like twenty years have been able to
do this. Like like everyone talks about how advanced like
isis's capabilities were for a non state actor, and they were,
but they couldn't do it, Like it's wild, No, like who.
Speaker 3 (06:18):
These have shut down some reaper drones.
Speaker 4 (06:21):
Yeah, but but they're but they're a state, Like that's
the thing, Like they'd have huge swaths of the regular
you many military are just like.
Speaker 2 (06:29):
Yeah, and then they're supplied by other state actors, right,
like very clearly as it's a little different. What, Yeah,
it's this is relatively remarkable, right that they've been able
to shoot down like and not just it's not just
like oh we got lucky, we got we got lucky
and dropped a single drone. ISIS had if I remember correctly,
Isis had some Igla manpads, like the old Russian man pads.
(06:54):
The thing with those and we're going to talk about
this a little bit later. They they have like a
battery and that battery will run out over a certain
or they're sold that. Some of them are just being
sold on the black market without batteries. From what I've seen,
some folks in that we've seen in the civil war
in Syria have worked out how to somehow make that
(07:14):
battery work with or make another battery, or make another
electronic system for them. They don't have like a lockout, right,
they don't have a like we've detected, you know, like
your iPhone will sometimes get mad if you're using a
third party charger.
Speaker 3 (07:28):
Yeah, yeah, yeah, right.
Speaker 2 (07:29):
So Tim Apples was not involved in the design of
the NK thelia Igler more so pity and so he
wasn't able to engineer it a third party luckout. But
those have been repurposed. But yeah, we did not see
the Islamic state of Irak and El Sham dropping US drones.
In fact, the reason like the thing that are allowed,
(07:52):
there are two things that allowed the defeat of the
so called Islamic state rate one, the heroism of the
people who fought against them, be they like I Rocky Kurdish,
you know, a lot of people for the against have
fifteen thousand kurt died fighting isis But also the fact
that the US had complete air dominance and could just
fucking obliterate things from the sky whenever it wanted to.
(08:15):
It did, it did a lot of It did a
lot of obliterating things from the sky, right, And so
the ability to shoot down drones is something that has
been very hard for non state actors. And it's not
like it's not like the k c K has a
state sponsor, right yeah.
Speaker 4 (08:32):
Yeah. Also so like like for example, like hesbal Lah
has shot down to although these weren't actually they shut
down to Hermes like it is really hermis drones. So
though those are just sort of those are surveillance things.
But the thing is like Hezbola did this by getting
surface there missles, like getting surface their rockets from Iran.
Speaker 3 (08:49):
Yeah sure, yeah, that's right.
Speaker 4 (08:52):
That's like, you know, the way that you can do
this is if either like Iran, the US, I guess
technically China and or and or Russia like hand you
them but if none of those four countries are willing
to play ball or I mean I guessically the UK, yes,
or like France could send you one, but like it's
it's it's really really like I don't. I don't think
(09:14):
any non state actor who wasn't being just directly armed
by one of those states has pulled it off.
Speaker 2 (09:21):
No. The other non state actor who I've seen with
manpads very recently are the Koren, the current national liberal
k in l A. The k and LA have been
putting out these pictures. This is in me and mar Yes,
this is in Mema. So for folks who haven't listened
to our previous Meama episodes, go and listen to them.
But yeah, there's some of the work I'm proud of.
(09:43):
But these k and LA guys have these photos have
come out that then they're not not post photos, right.
They they very clearly they wanted these photos to come
out and it shows them with these manpad system. I'm
actually not sure if it's a strella or a Chinese
I think it's called the eighth N five the Chinese.
It's essentially the same thing, but they have the grip
(10:06):
stock for them, but they don't have the coolant ball
and the battery at the front, so like that they're
what they have is a fancy looking doesn't appear to
my eyes to be like fully functional, like in terms
of tracking and shooting down an aeroplane. Although I have
seen footage from friends of Hunter aircraft deploying like flares
(10:31):
over a current state and then like turning around and leaving,
So perhaps there's something I'm missing here, Like, it's entirely
possible that when they decided for these photos come out,
they they're in a certain fashion. And like those guys
who engineered and tire arms industry of their own using
Reddit and Ali express, like I, if anybody can make
something work, they can make something work.
Speaker 3 (10:53):
I have great faith in their ingenuity.
Speaker 2 (10:56):
And as I said, like it's people in Syria have
previously made systems like this work. They're not they don't
have that lockout, so it's quite possible that they did.
But I've not seen a video of anyone in Mianmar
shooting down and any kind of aircraft yet. Right the
Russian aircraft that they have shot down aircraft allegedly someone
(11:19):
shot one down with with a like a grenade launcher,
a single shot grenade launcher solid video, Yeah, which one
of the most chadly things anyone's ever done. It's it's
some like modern warfare or whatever whatever. The computer game
is called Battlefield, that's what it's called. Yeah, talking of
talking of Chadley and exciting stuff. This might be an
(11:42):
advert for like being a prison guard or something exciting
that we have to to introduce. Now, okay, don't don't
be a prison guard?
Speaker 3 (11:59):
All right?
Speaker 2 (12:00):
Back, have you found gain from employment elsewhere outside of
the cast real system? And we're talking about surface to
our missiles, particularly these thirteen surface to our missile of
thirteen drones that the casey K have shut down, right,
One thing I thought that was noticeable is that they
did say missiles they are people were able to pride
(12:21):
the missile system necessary that So like there's a theory
that I've seen that that they were able to crash
a drone of their own into into a bayractar like
a kind of like I guess, like a suicide. I
don't like the word suicide drone because it's not the
drone that's dying. Like normally when people talk about suicide drones,
they're killing people.
Speaker 4 (12:43):
Yeah, but like a ramming drone. Yeah yeah, yeah, like
a like a it's like robot Wars. But they said
missile on their press.
Speaker 2 (12:55):
Really, so you know, if we take that on the
if we take that on the face of it, that
that suggests that they shut them down. Certainly this like
there is good video evidence of the mirror and I
just reviewed the video. Incredible soundtrack. We'll link to it
in the We'll link to it in the show notes.
(13:15):
In the videos, you very clearly see Oh it's a drone.
Oh it's a huge explosion that gravity is now having
its effect on this drone, like it is plummeting to earth.
Speaker 4 (13:24):
Yeah, like it's it's definitely not a like we've fired
a machine gun in the air and it hit it
somehow or something like. It's right, it got hit quite explosive. Yeah, yeah,
that's remarkable.
Speaker 3 (13:38):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (13:38):
One of the there was a shooting down of an
aircraft in them. It wasn't one of them makes I
forgot it might have been. It was a two seater
training plate. I can't remember quite what it was, but
that was shot down supposedly by small arms fire or
maybe like a generally the like the air defense of
most non state arm groups has been dushcuts right, like
a it's a thing that you've seen in the back
of a pickup truck going like bang ban bang, with
(14:02):
a big sort of spade grip. It's a classic technical gun.
But this isn't that, Like, this is something very different,
something they're they're exploding when these drones get hit, they're exploding.
And they've all been in I think, oh yeah, all
of them are in areas of the what we call
the Kurdistan Autonomous Region. A bit of rock, right, So
(14:25):
some of them are in zap which is near to
Hok but towards north of there. Some of them in
the Kandil Mountains, which is part of the Zagros Mountain Range.
Again it's it's in the north of that Kurdistan Autonomous Region,
and I think some of them are in it. I
think it's Gabay, it's pronounced, but they're not in like
(14:47):
I think obviously, when a lot of people think about
the Kurdistan Freedom Movement, they think about Rajava. This isn't there.
The US did shoot down a by rakta or in
a Kinchi over Rajava while I was there, but they
only shot it down because it flew over their base.
They continued to let the bay Raktars bomb civilian infrastructure
all over the A and E S. So these these
(15:11):
are not there, these are so perhaps whatever they're using
so interesting, right, Like it's maybe it's not something they
can take there, or maybe it's not you know, like
it's not they're not able to get it out of
the mountains.
Speaker 3 (15:23):
It's too much of a risk.
Speaker 4 (15:25):
No, it's it's interesting, I mean for a number of reasons. Well, yeah,
partially that they're not using it in serior. Partially they're
also they don't seem to be using them in Turkey either.
Speaker 2 (15:36):
No, it's interesting when they take off, it's not that
like subtle, right, it's a big aircraft, so they'll get
some warning when they take off and that would allow them,
I guess, to prepare their munitions. But yeah, they don't
seem to be using it. They seem to be using
it in like this this area. Whether they're very strong, right,
whether these mountains are extremely fortified, they've been fighting Turkey.
(16:00):
There are a lot in recent days and weeks. You
can always i mean, obviously you're going to see some
somewhat traumatic combat footage, but Garrilla TV always has like
updates on these things. So that's the sort of thing
that you you know, like to keep up to date with.
But yeah, they're not using them there, they're not using them.
They're they're very close to Turkey, right, but yeah, not
(16:21):
not quite in and Turkey soldiers do occupy some areas
inside the Iraqi curts Down Autonomous Region, so like they
it's kind of all and Turkey seems to be kind
of trying to ramp up its operations against the Courts
Down Freedom movement inside the Curtis Donal Autonomous Region, but
(16:41):
this is a significant impediment to that.
Speaker 3 (16:43):
Right.
Speaker 2 (16:43):
It's also very interesting that like we have not heard
shit about this from Turkey.
Speaker 4 (16:49):
No, Yeah, well, and I think I think part of
this is you know, like I think it's something that
as an indication of how serious this is, because I mean,
this has been you know, the law of the twenty
first century is that if you're a state actor, you
have unlimited air superiority over any non state group you're bombing,
and you can, you know, especially especially if you're like
the US, you can send bombers or drones into like
(17:12):
any country you want and you can bomb them. Yeah,
and that has been true, and this has been the
basis of US military power. It's also been the basis
of a lot of like, you know, the Turkey obviously
doesn't have the same air doctrine as the US does,
but like that's been the basis of a lot of
Turkish operations that they like, they're the people who have
airpower on because they have airpower, because they have drones,
(17:33):
because you can't shoot back at them, they can do
whatever the fuck they want.
Speaker 2 (17:37):
Yeah, Like I've been in the situation where you are
completely powerless and very afraid because at some point something
could fall out the night sky and kill you and
there's fuck all you can do about it. And yeah, yeah,
that has been the way of the world, like you say,
for this entire century. Right, it's what we've seen. I mean, meanma,
(18:00):
the pro democracy forces are gaining ground every day. They're
doing an incredible job. But like I've also talked to
people whose whole unit has been wiped out and they've
hidden under the dead bodies of their friends because as
a plane or a helicopter circling around, and it's the
one area where they've really struggled to defend themselves, right,
And it's I'm writing a book about anarchist at War.
(18:22):
Eventually I will publish that book. But this is the
thing that defines like the benit like the state. Even
when the state like loses its monopoly on legitimate violence,
it still has monopoly on airborne violence. And the questioning
that monopoly, like is is incredibly dangerous for the state's
(18:44):
ability to for the state, I guess in general, like
for its continued ability to crush movements, be they liberatory
or be they otherwise.
Speaker 4 (18:55):
Right, we can know, I mean, this is something I
think is really interesting. This is something that's been a
fear of I mean everyone from like Western intelligence people
through like I mean you can see people in like
Hollywood freaking out about this, Like like rebel group gets
access to a manpad is like one of the most
common like spy show plots. Yeah, and yeah, it's like
(19:18):
it's something that you know, you can listen to, like
the US military talking about this. Is this is something
that they're really concerned about.
Speaker 2 (19:27):
Yeah, they won't sub like it's their where it's where
they draw the line with the groups who are quote
unquote allies, right, who'll be quote Like the US will
tell you that the SDF for their allies in the
fight against ISIS. But they're willing to let their allies
die rather than give them manpads. Right, Like, I've seen this.
Speaker 3 (19:44):
I have.
Speaker 2 (19:45):
I've seen the funerals, you know, because they and the US.
But I've also driven right past the fucking US base
and I know that there are plenty of malny of
plenty of anti aircraft systems there because they shut down
a Turkish drone.
Speaker 3 (19:56):
While I was there.
Speaker 2 (19:57):
But they're not willing to give them to even the
people who they'll fight side by side with because their
fear of having manpads get into what they would maybe
term the wrong hands is is. Yeah, it's like the
the one area where they have I guess, complete domination.
Speaker 3 (20:15):
Right.
Speaker 2 (20:15):
They've given them to Ukraine, of course, but despite like
repeated allegations, there is no evidence that Ukraine has sold
surface to wear systems anywhere, and they obviously weren't give
them to me Anmar, right, So it's yeah, if this
is what it appears to be, then it's a really
massive change. Talking of a massive change, you could you know,
(20:37):
you can make a massive change to your financial situation
by purchasing gold.
Speaker 3 (20:53):
We're back, Yeah, I.
Speaker 4 (20:55):
Think something that's really interesting about the way that the
sort of man pad getting to know and say to actors.
Speaker 3 (21:00):
Has talked about is that.
Speaker 4 (21:02):
Usually the way that it's like usually the US line
on it is like we cant like we can't let
anyone get these us They're gonna use it to shoot
down civilian airliners. Yes, yeah, And now, to be fair,
people do accidentally shoot down like militaries accidentally shoot down
civilian airliners all the time. Yeah, Like that's a very
common thing. But I think I think that's that's a
(21:24):
smoke screed, right, because like even like the actual thing
that if you're if you're a militant group, usually the
thing that you want to be doing if you have
one of these weapons is shooting down the things that
the people who are bombing you. Yeah, And I think
there's a really interesting sort of like psychological thing going
on here. This is this is the sort of propaganda
thing that that you know, to to get to get
like you random person to be terrified of, Like you know,
(21:48):
the Kurds having surface to air missiles, is they used
like they use people's like fear of getting blown up
on an airplane. It's like no, no, like click at
like you know, evidence suggests that what is actually what
actually happens that these is that they shoot down drones.
Speaker 2 (22:03):
Yeah, yes, exactly right, and not like the other thing,
which is somewhat remarkable. It's it would be one thing
to have got your hands on one or two, but
to have been to have shut down in a one
year pit well just over one year from February thirteenth,
twenty twenty three until marks the first, twenty twenty four,
they have shot down fifteen UAVs like that. That's a
(22:24):
that's a decent number of manpads or maybe not manpads.
That's the other thing we kind of didn't mention, right,
Like bait raptas can fly very high. We were just
sort of checking this out before the show, and I
think they can fly around seven thousand meters, which when
in theory put about side feet twenty five thousand feet, yeah,
which is about twice the like the the height previous
(22:47):
generation man pads like things like stingers and iglers can
can operate at I'm not sure of the the what
the for for an igler reach targets and macxum altitude
of two thy five hundred meters.
Speaker 3 (23:00):
So yeah, that's a little under.
Speaker 2 (23:02):
As high as these as these like attack drones can fly,
maybe they have to come lower to like launch their munitions,
or maybe they come lower to to search for people
and presumably looking for The Kurdistan Freedom Movement has guerrillas
all over these mountains right here, extremely well camouflaged and
extremely adept at avoiding drone attacks because that is what
(23:24):
they have been doing for for a long time.
Speaker 3 (23:27):
So maybe that's how.
Speaker 2 (23:28):
But also maybe maybe there's something that we're not aware
of or some kind of Maybe it's not a man
portable system at all. Maybe it's something that is like
fixed in place well, and that and that comes.
Speaker 4 (23:39):
I think one of the one of the really interesting
questions to you, which is how on earth did they
get these? Yeah, whatever whatever system you're using, you know
normally like the only way, like you know, like has
blah or the whoies get them from Iran? Right, But
the Radians are absolutely like, under no circumstances are they
going to I mean maybe if Turkey declared war on Iran,
(24:01):
there's like a five percent chance maybe in like their
darkest hour, they might try this, Like there's no way.
Speaker 2 (24:07):
Yeah, Like Iraq and Iran have repeatedly attempted to mobilize
the Kurds against each other, right, but yeah, I think
that they would draw the line at handing over manpads and.
Speaker 4 (24:18):
Yeah, and they're definitely not getting them from the US.
Speaker 2 (24:21):
No, then they're using them in areas where they're with
the US, and the US has been very clears.
Speaker 4 (24:26):
Like like you know, it's it's it's definitely not I
don't think it's any other Western country either, Like, yeah,
it doesn't make any sense. Like I mean, maybe like
based Sweden smuggling pads in or something, but I really
doubt it, which leaves it really like up in the air.
I mean, like maybe Russia maybe somehow, I don't know.
(24:47):
It's it's it's all very weird.
Speaker 2 (24:51):
Yeah, And I mean like in recent months, the A
Side regime, which is backed by Russia, has been an
open conflict with the SDF, So I think it it's
it's very unlikely, like the Asad regime has been fighting
with and killing it and dying with ye again in Syria,
so it seems very unlikely. Yeah, it's very That's what's
(25:13):
very strange, Like the there seems to be a couple
of different groups of people, right, like the Kuren have
popped up with these previous generations Igla.
Speaker 3 (25:23):
Kind of manpads.
Speaker 2 (25:25):
The Kitchin have shot down a lot of planes recently,
and it's not entirely clear how so the Kitchen or
another ethnic group in Myanmar a somewhat closer ties to
the pr C. The United ware State Army have manpads.
They are the sort of closest tied to the PRC
of the e r os in Myanma. I'm using a
lot of acronyms here on it.
Speaker 4 (25:46):
Yeah, this is just the problem we're talking about, Curtis
Group's not I'm talking about, Yes, like the two great
acronym like wars.
Speaker 2 (25:55):
Don't be overlooking the Spanish Civil War, the alphabet soup
of conflicts. Yeah, this is this is a life I've
chosen for myself. So, yeah, the ethnic revolutionary organizations in
Mielma the closest to China. It's the United ware State
Army who have been at the fringes of the conflict,
but it is certainly not fully committed to fighting against
the Hunter in the same way that the Karen, the Kachin,
(26:18):
the Arakan Army, the PDF for the other groups that
form the resistance in Burma or Memma are but there
have definitely been more planes shot down in Memma this
year than in the last few years, So there's perhaps
there's some kind of source in the world for these
(26:40):
service to msas. There will come a point in the
human future, right when one of these is either reverse
engineered or someone just really, if someone had said to
you ten years ago that, like several people online, some
of whom I've spoken to, some of whom our friend
j Camera had spoken to, would be able to construct
a gun that you could print from your computer, like
(27:02):
you'd you'd have said, you're barking right like, and at
some point in the human future someone will work out
how to use things they already have to make something
that can shoot down aircraft. But yeah, it's baffling like that.
There seems to be no obvious answers to where what
the source of these the The last thing I will
say is that there was a yakuzer boss. Yeah, yeah,
(27:25):
this guy legend. It's just like he like, this man's
my man's done nothing wrong. He was convicted of selling
trying to sell man pared to the Korene and I
think to the Kachin, I can't remember if one of
them with the koren Uh and he was trying to
do so very funny. He was calling them cake and
(27:46):
ice cream and incredibly incredibly good cipher. It's a hell
of a it's a banger of an indictment. Everyone should
read it to Keshi. I forget what his last name was,
but he he was trying to sell man pads and
what he was actually doing was being monitored by the DEA.
But the man pads that he thought that he had
(28:08):
access to were fictional, like it was. It was it
was the FEDS who had conned him into thinking they
had man pads. They did have some eighty fours. He
met them in the Netherlands. Took an incredible selfie with
a light anti tank weapon and you can look it up.
Leather jacket, like I think he's got blue aviators on,
(28:28):
Like my man's been arrested for having incredible drip and
it's very sad. But yeah, the man pads he thought
he was selling were fictional. But the fact that people
were like, yeah, this seems reasonable like that people were like, okay,
we're prepared to enter this deal with you. They weren't like,
what are you on about suggests that maybe these things
(28:48):
are entering the market. People will always say that they
came from Afghanistan, like after the US left. But I
don't think the Taliban would have any reason to sell them.
They're getting bombed by Pakistan right now. Like what Yeah, yeah,
it doesn't seem it doesn't make sense to me that
that they would sell them. Yeah, and I one thing
I should also mention is like every single time there
(29:11):
is a war anywhere in the world, there are a
trillion rumors that come out. They're like, oh, there's like
this guy is selling like ex weapons or whatever, and
it's like ninety nine percent of them are false.
Speaker 4 (29:21):
Yeah, yeah, yeah, you hear this all the time and
it's never true. Yes, So that makes it really hard
to sort out like where these things are coming from. Yeah, exactly.
A friend of the podcast, Victor Boot is he's free again.
Speaker 2 (29:37):
He's back maybe maybe maybe he's gotten back on Maybe
the god of war is back.
Speaker 3 (29:44):
Baby.
Speaker 2 (29:45):
It would be incredible, there would be an incredible narrative
art for Victor Boot. But like as we said in
that episode, right, like it's very easy to point to
Victor Boot as being this evil guy, but in fact,
like we've sold a shit ton of weapons to people
who turn out to be pretty pretty uncivil as the
United States, a lot more people working all the other
places that have offices in San Diego made a lot
(30:06):
more money than he did selling weapons to people. So
you know, we ought to be you know, popcorn and
the cut back a bit there, but clearly something is
up with surface to our missiles. I hope this makes
your spring Bak flights more exciting.
Speaker 3 (30:21):
It just gives it a little edge as you take off.
Speaker 2 (30:24):
Don't fly in Turkey, Yeah, yeah, that's the our tip
is to to not fly from not land. I guess
in I mean, like we said, the KSEK and go
to shoot down your civilian plane, then they're nice people.
I'll just say the KSEK and my experience have been
very nice, very forthcoming, extremely communicative and responsive to press requests,
(30:45):
which much more so than a lot a lot of
other state actors. And I don't think you have any
worries abut them shooting down your aircraft. But it's an
interesting development that like yeah, will fundamentally challenge the way
that states are able to squash non state arm groups
going forward.
Speaker 4 (31:06):
Yeah, and if we if we figure out where they
got them from and that becomes public. Well you'll you'll
see the next episode called We found Out where the
mad Pads are from.
Speaker 2 (31:18):
Yeah, I think in unlikelihood to no one's interested to
know to like announce where these are from. And I
don't think you know the ones in in Meanmar. It's
not inconceivable that they came either directly or indirectly from China. Yeah,
certainly that that would be the most feasible. But seeing
them elsewhere it's fascinating, Like it's you know, if somebody
(31:39):
has like either reverse engineered these are there's a large
NAWORITHM available on the black market, like that would be
a sea change in the way conflict happened, right, Like,
you know, it's rare. Right now, it's able to bomb
Palestine with complete impunity. If non state arm groups had
access to manpads there that that maybe wouldn't be the case.
(32:00):
But yeah, it's a change. It's a change in the
way the world goes to war. I think it's always interesting.
It's always interesting, Like for a podcast that was built
on speculative fiction about future collapses, like this certainly is
something that challenges some monopoly of the state. So yeah,
it's something to keep an eye on. I will attach
(32:20):
in the notes the Gorilla TV video of the Beiractars
being shut down. Please enjoyed the soundtrack, Yeah, it's banger.
And we'll also include some links to those videos of
the Kurne National Liberation Army with their man pads. If
you're a manpads understander, you know you know where to
find me. It's all over the internet.
Speaker 3 (32:39):
Yeah. With that, I will leave you have a great weekend.
Don't fly your cessnas.
Speaker 1 (32:49):
It could Happen here as a production of cool Zone Media.
For more podcasts and cool Zone Media, visitor website cool
zonemedia dot com, or check us out on the iHeartRadio app,
Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to Potts. You can
find sources for It could Happen Here, updated monthly at
coolzonemedia dot com slash sources. Thanks for listening.
Also media.
Speaker 2 (00:05):
Hi everyone, it's me James, just introducing this podcast. I'm
recording this the day after we recorded the episode to
today's Thursday, the twenty first of March. I wanted to
just update a couple of things and correct a couple
of things, so I've just listened through the episodes.
Speaker 3 (00:19):
I'm going to do that now.
Speaker 2 (00:20):
Firstly, I think I said Igler a couple of times
when I meant strella. It's the Strella portable surface to
our missiles have been refitted with new batteries in the
Syrian Civil Wars specifically, and I've included a link to
a document about that in the show notes. So apologies
for getting those two things confused. They're both I guess
former Soviet service to our missile systems. The other things
(00:43):
I wanted to mention are that a few like throughout
this episode, we've used manpads, right. That's kind of the
colloquial term or the official term really for person portable
anti aircraft systems, like it obviously doesn't mean that you
have to be a man to use one, certainly like
(01:03):
the fact that the hPG are using them and that
the Kurdish Freedom Movement are using them, obviously women can
use them, non binary folks can use them, to everyone
can use them. And finally, I just wanted to mention
that there have been some suggestions that the thing that
was used to shoot down the bay Ragtars was like
loitering munition, which is something that is often called a
(01:24):
suicide drone. In this case, it's not a loitering munition
that impacts something on the ground, but impact something on
the air. There's an Iranian system that does that, but
apparently it's possible to replicate that with a large number
of off the shelf or sort of commercially available pieces.
Speaker 3 (01:39):
So maybe that's what's going on.
Speaker 2 (01:41):
This episode was a little bit speculative, and we still
don't have lots of hard answers, but we hope you'll
enjoy it because it represents a change in a relationship
between the state and people who are not the state,
and that's why it's important.
Speaker 3 (01:52):
Okay, hope you enjoy.
Speaker 2 (01:54):
Hello, podcast fans, Welcome back to the podcast. I'm joined
today by my friend Mia Himea. Hello, and we are
talking about, of course, surface to wear missiles, a topic
that I'm sure is on the top of mind for
all of you as you drive to work this morning.
Where are we talking about surface to air missiles today? Well?
Today is it is Wednesday, the twentieth of March, and
(02:17):
today I'm sure maybe some of you would have seen
some of the most of you probably will not as
you go about your daily lives.
Speaker 3 (02:23):
That the k c K.
Speaker 2 (02:25):
The k c K is the group, the Kurdistan Communities Union,
the joint group between the various groups in the different
parts of Kurdistan. Right, So you have the PKK, You
have they in Syria, p KK in Turkey, right, the
p JACK in Iran. In the KK like brings all
(02:46):
these groups together?
Speaker 1 (02:47):
Do they?
Speaker 4 (02:48):
Is there a name?
Speaker 3 (02:49):
Do they?
Speaker 4 (02:49):
Is there like an Iraqi branch? That's the one that
I don't know. You have the yevishe the Azdi group? Right, yeah,
Kurdish one.
Speaker 2 (02:58):
I think everyone I will reconsider my statement. The people
who I have become aware of who are in Iraq,
who are who I know about journalistically, are Ksek people. Okay,
little little bit of smoke and mirrors feed there, but yeah,
the people, the people who who I know who are
(03:20):
in the Kurdistan Autonomous Region are Ksek. So I think
that I think most of the sort of people within
the Greater like Kurdish Freedom Movement.
Speaker 3 (03:33):
The Apoche people are KCK within Iraq.
Speaker 2 (03:36):
It is in the Kurdistan Autonomous Region, so like Iraqi
in a technical sense, but only only really in a
technical sense, Like when you go to the Kurdistan Autonomous Region,
you don't even do Iraqi immigration. You do Kurdistyan immigration,
which is nice because it's a lot easier. I was
there in October of twenty twenty three, and since February
(03:57):
of twenty twenty three, the KCK have an out. They
have shut down thirteen Turkish unmanned aerial vehicles, right, which
what you and I would call drones. And we're not
talking about drones like your friend has a drone and
they use it to film you at the beach drones.
We're talking about like bairaktar drones, which are it's an aircraft, right,
(04:20):
Like if you saw one, you would be like, oh,
there goes a plane.
Speaker 4 (04:24):
Yeah, it's like it's it's like the Turkish version of
the Predator drones and.
Speaker 2 (04:27):
The US users, Yeah, yeah, it's it's yeah, it's a
very similar thing. It's a very popular drone system actually, right,
they've sold bairaktars to. I think dozens of countries like
like they're I mean most all over, yeah, thirty one
countries that they've exported the bairaktar to, so they're very
widely used. They're kind of the the sort of drone
(04:48):
of choice for people who are just like buying on
the open market. Right. Karta uses them, Ukraine uses them
a lot, but even countries like I'm looking here Bikina
Faso has has biraugtars So what's notable about this is
they've also shot down a Kinchi's a kinchiese are like
the newer bairakta variant that they make a slightly different noise.
(05:09):
I've spent some time in places that are being attacked
by drones over the last year, and it's it's.
Speaker 3 (05:13):
A highly unpleasant experience.
Speaker 2 (05:15):
But people who are used to this, which I am,
I guess thankfully not, will tell you that they can
tell the difference the noise at least these drones to make.
But there was a kinchi, for instance, I believe it
was in a kinchi that did some of the attacks
that I was unfortunate enough to be nearby when I
was in ro In October. So what's notable about this
(05:37):
is like the k c K obviously, like they're a
non state actor, right because there is not a Kurdish state.
There is a Kurdish nation, one might argue, but it's
split between four states Iraq, Iran, Syria, and Turkey, and
so them being able to shoot down droned it's quite
(05:59):
remind uckable.
Speaker 4 (06:01):
Yeah, no, one's none of the non state actors really
in the last like twenty years have been able to
do this. Like like everyone talks about how advanced like
isis's capabilities were for a non state actor, and they were,
but they couldn't do it, Like it's wild, No, like who.
Speaker 3 (06:18):
These have shut down some reaper drones.
Speaker 4 (06:21):
Yeah, but but they're but they're a state, Like that's
the thing, Like they'd have huge swaths of the regular
you many military are just like.
Speaker 2 (06:29):
Yeah, and then they're supplied by other state actors, right,
like very clearly as it's a little different. What, Yeah,
it's this is relatively remarkable, right that they've been able
to shoot down like and not just it's not just
like oh we got lucky, we got we got lucky
and dropped a single drone. ISIS had if I remember correctly,
Isis had some Igla manpads, like the old Russian man pads.
(06:54):
The thing with those and we're going to talk about
this a little bit later. They they have like a
battery and that battery will run out over a certain
or they're sold that. Some of them are just being
sold on the black market without batteries. From what I've seen,
some folks in that we've seen in the civil war
in Syria have worked out how to somehow make that
(07:14):
battery work with or make another battery, or make another
electronic system for them. They don't have like a lockout, right,
they don't have a like we've detected, you know, like
your iPhone will sometimes get mad if you're using a
third party charger.
Speaker 3 (07:28):
Yeah, yeah, yeah, right.
Speaker 2 (07:29):
So Tim Apples was not involved in the design of
the NK thelia Igler more so pity and so he
wasn't able to engineer it a third party luckout. But
those have been repurposed. But yeah, we did not see
the Islamic state of Irak and El Sham dropping US drones.
In fact, the reason like the thing that are allowed,
(07:52):
there are two things that allowed the defeat of the
so called Islamic state rate one, the heroism of the
people who fought against them, be they like I Rocky Kurdish,
you know, a lot of people for the against have
fifteen thousand kurt died fighting isis But also the fact
that the US had complete air dominance and could just
fucking obliterate things from the sky whenever it wanted to.
(08:15):
It did, it did a lot of It did a
lot of obliterating things from the sky, right, And so
the ability to shoot down drones is something that has
been very hard for non state actors. And it's not
like it's not like the k c K has a
state sponsor, right yeah.
Speaker 4 (08:32):
Yeah. Also so like like for example, like hesbal Lah
has shot down to although these weren't actually they shut
down to Hermes like it is really hermis drones. So
though those are just sort of those are surveillance things.
But the thing is like Hezbola did this by getting
surface there missles, like getting surface their rockets from Iran.
Speaker 3 (08:49):
Yeah sure, yeah, that's right.
Speaker 4 (08:52):
That's like, you know, the way that you can do
this is if either like Iran, the US, I guess
technically China and or and or Russia like hand you
them but if none of those four countries are willing
to play ball or I mean I guessically the UK, yes,
or like France could send you one, but like it's
it's it's really really like I don't. I don't think
(09:14):
any non state actor who wasn't being just directly armed
by one of those states has pulled it off.
Speaker 2 (09:21):
No. The other non state actor who I've seen with
manpads very recently are the Koren, the current national liberal
k in l A. The k and LA have been
putting out these pictures. This is in me and mar Yes,
this is in Mema. So for folks who haven't listened
to our previous Meama episodes, go and listen to them.
But yeah, there's some of the work I'm proud of.
(09:43):
But these k and LA guys have these photos have
come out that then they're not not post photos, right.
They they very clearly they wanted these photos to come
out and it shows them with these manpad system. I'm
actually not sure if it's a strella or a Chinese
I think it's called the eighth N five the Chinese.
It's essentially the same thing, but they have the grip
(10:06):
stock for them, but they don't have the coolant ball
and the battery at the front, so like that they're
what they have is a fancy looking doesn't appear to
my eyes to be like fully functional, like in terms
of tracking and shooting down an aeroplane. Although I have
seen footage from friends of Hunter aircraft deploying like flares
(10:31):
over a current state and then like turning around and leaving,
So perhaps there's something I'm missing here, Like, it's entirely
possible that when they decided for these photos come out,
they they're in a certain fashion. And like those guys
who engineered and tire arms industry of their own using
Reddit and Ali express, like I, if anybody can make
something work, they can make something work.
Speaker 3 (10:53):
I have great faith in their ingenuity.
Speaker 2 (10:56):
And as I said, like it's people in Syria have
previously made systems like this work. They're not they don't
have that lockout, so it's quite possible that they did.
But I've not seen a video of anyone in Mianmar
shooting down and any kind of aircraft yet. Right the
Russian aircraft that they have shot down aircraft allegedly someone
(11:19):
shot one down with with a like a grenade launcher,
a single shot grenade launcher solid video, Yeah, which one
of the most chadly things anyone's ever done. It's it's
some like modern warfare or whatever whatever. The computer game
is called Battlefield, that's what it's called. Yeah, talking of
talking of Chadley and exciting stuff. This might be an
(11:42):
advert for like being a prison guard or something exciting
that we have to to introduce. Now, okay, don't don't
be a prison guard?
Speaker 3 (11:59):
All right?
Speaker 2 (12:00):
Back, have you found gain from employment elsewhere outside of
the cast real system? And we're talking about surface to
our missiles, particularly these thirteen surface to our missile of
thirteen drones that the casey K have shut down, right,
One thing I thought that was noticeable is that they
did say missiles they are people were able to pride
(12:21):
the missile system necessary that So like there's a theory
that I've seen that that they were able to crash
a drone of their own into into a bayractar like
a kind of like I guess, like a suicide. I
don't like the word suicide drone because it's not the
drone that's dying. Like normally when people talk about suicide drones,
they're killing people.
Speaker 4 (12:43):
Yeah, but like a ramming drone. Yeah yeah, yeah, like
a like a it's like robot Wars. But they said
missile on their press.
Speaker 2 (12:55):
Really, so you know, if we take that on the
if we take that on the face of it, that
that suggests that they shut them down. Certainly this like
there is good video evidence of the mirror and I
just reviewed the video. Incredible soundtrack. We'll link to it
in the We'll link to it in the show notes.
(13:15):
In the videos, you very clearly see Oh it's a drone.
Oh it's a huge explosion that gravity is now having
its effect on this drone, like it is plummeting to earth.
Speaker 4 (13:24):
Yeah, like it's it's definitely not a like we've fired
a machine gun in the air and it hit it
somehow or something like. It's right, it got hit quite explosive. Yeah, yeah,
that's remarkable.
Speaker 3 (13:38):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (13:38):
One of the there was a shooting down of an
aircraft in them. It wasn't one of them makes I
forgot it might have been. It was a two seater
training plate. I can't remember quite what it was, but
that was shot down supposedly by small arms fire or
maybe like a generally the like the air defense of
most non state arm groups has been dushcuts right, like
a it's a thing that you've seen in the back
of a pickup truck going like bang ban bang, with
(14:02):
a big sort of spade grip. It's a classic technical gun.
But this isn't that, Like, this is something very different,
something they're they're exploding when these drones get hit, they're exploding.
And they've all been in I think, oh yeah, all
of them are in areas of the what we call
the Kurdistan Autonomous Region. A bit of rock, right, So
(14:25):
some of them are in zap which is near to
Hok but towards north of there. Some of them in
the Kandil Mountains, which is part of the Zagros Mountain Range.
Again it's it's in the north of that Kurdistan Autonomous Region,
and I think some of them are in it. I
think it's Gabay, it's pronounced, but they're not in like
(14:47):
I think obviously, when a lot of people think about
the Kurdistan Freedom Movement, they think about Rajava. This isn't there.
The US did shoot down a by rakta or in
a Kinchi over Rajava while I was there, but they
only shot it down because it flew over their base.
They continued to let the bay Raktars bomb civilian infrastructure
all over the A and E S. So these these
(15:11):
are not there, these are so perhaps whatever they're using
so interesting, right, Like it's maybe it's not something they
can take there, or maybe it's not you know, like
it's not they're not able to get it out of
the mountains.
Speaker 3 (15:23):
It's too much of a risk.
Speaker 4 (15:25):
No, it's it's interesting, I mean for a number of reasons. Well, yeah,
partially that they're not using it in serior. Partially they're
also they don't seem to be using them in Turkey either.
Speaker 2 (15:36):
No, it's interesting when they take off, it's not that
like subtle, right, it's a big aircraft, so they'll get
some warning when they take off and that would allow them,
I guess, to prepare their munitions. But yeah, they don't
seem to be using it. They seem to be using
it in like this this area. Whether they're very strong, right,
whether these mountains are extremely fortified, they've been fighting Turkey.
(16:00):
There are a lot in recent days and weeks. You
can always i mean, obviously you're going to see some
somewhat traumatic combat footage, but Garrilla TV always has like
updates on these things. So that's the sort of thing
that you you know, like to keep up to date with.
But yeah, they're not using them there, they're not using them.
They're they're very close to Turkey, right, but yeah, not
(16:21):
not quite in and Turkey soldiers do occupy some areas
inside the Iraqi curts Down Autonomous Region, so like they
it's kind of all and Turkey seems to be kind
of trying to ramp up its operations against the Courts
Down Freedom movement inside the Curtis Donal Autonomous Region, but
(16:41):
this is a significant impediment to that.
Speaker 3 (16:43):
Right.
Speaker 2 (16:43):
It's also very interesting that like we have not heard
shit about this from Turkey.
Speaker 4 (16:49):
No, Yeah, well, and I think I think part of
this is you know, like I think it's something that
as an indication of how serious this is, because I mean,
this has been you know, the law of the twenty
first century is that if you're a state actor, you
have unlimited air superiority over any non state group you're bombing,
and you can, you know, especially especially if you're like
the US, you can send bombers or drones into like
(17:12):
any country you want and you can bomb them. Yeah,
and that has been true, and this has been the
basis of US military power. It's also been the basis
of a lot of like, you know, the Turkey obviously
doesn't have the same air doctrine as the US does,
but like that's been the basis of a lot of
Turkish operations that they like, they're the people who have
airpower on because they have airpower, because they have drones,
(17:33):
because you can't shoot back at them, they can do
whatever the fuck they want.
Speaker 2 (17:37):
Yeah, Like I've been in the situation where you are
completely powerless and very afraid because at some point something
could fall out the night sky and kill you and
there's fuck all you can do about it. And yeah, yeah,
that has been the way of the world, like you say,
for this entire century. Right, it's what we've seen. I mean, meanma,
(18:00):
the pro democracy forces are gaining ground every day. They're
doing an incredible job. But like I've also talked to
people whose whole unit has been wiped out and they've
hidden under the dead bodies of their friends because as
a plane or a helicopter circling around, and it's the
one area where they've really struggled to defend themselves, right,
And it's I'm writing a book about anarchist at War.
(18:22):
Eventually I will publish that book. But this is the
thing that defines like the benit like the state. Even
when the state like loses its monopoly on legitimate violence,
it still has monopoly on airborne violence. And the questioning
that monopoly, like is is incredibly dangerous for the state's
(18:44):
ability to for the state, I guess in general, like
for its continued ability to crush movements, be they liberatory
or be they otherwise.
Speaker 4 (18:55):
Right, we can know, I mean, this is something I
think is really interesting. This is something that's been a
fear of I mean everyone from like Western intelligence people
through like I mean you can see people in like
Hollywood freaking out about this, Like like rebel group gets
access to a manpad is like one of the most
common like spy show plots. Yeah, and yeah, it's like
(19:18):
it's something that you know, you can listen to, like
the US military talking about this. Is this is something
that they're really concerned about.
Speaker 2 (19:27):
Yeah, they won't sub like it's their where it's where
they draw the line with the groups who are quote
unquote allies, right, who'll be quote Like the US will
tell you that the SDF for their allies in the
fight against ISIS. But they're willing to let their allies
die rather than give them manpads. Right, Like, I've seen this.
Speaker 3 (19:44):
I have.
Speaker 2 (19:45):
I've seen the funerals, you know, because they and the US.
But I've also driven right past the fucking US base
and I know that there are plenty of malny of
plenty of anti aircraft systems there because they shut down
a Turkish drone.
Speaker 3 (19:56):
While I was there.
Speaker 2 (19:57):
But they're not willing to give them to even the
people who they'll fight side by side with because their
fear of having manpads get into what they would maybe
term the wrong hands is is. Yeah, it's like the
the one area where they have I guess, complete domination.
Speaker 3 (20:15):
Right.
Speaker 2 (20:15):
They've given them to Ukraine, of course, but despite like
repeated allegations, there is no evidence that Ukraine has sold
surface to wear systems anywhere, and they obviously weren't give
them to me Anmar, right, So it's yeah, if this
is what it appears to be, then it's a really
massive change. Talking of a massive change, you could you know,
(20:37):
you can make a massive change to your financial situation
by purchasing gold.
Speaker 3 (20:53):
We're back, Yeah, I.
Speaker 4 (20:55):
Think something that's really interesting about the way that the
sort of man pad getting to know and say to actors.
Speaker 3 (21:00):
Has talked about is that.
Speaker 4 (21:02):
Usually the way that it's like usually the US line
on it is like we cant like we can't let
anyone get these us They're gonna use it to shoot
down civilian airliners. Yes, yeah, And now, to be fair,
people do accidentally shoot down like militaries accidentally shoot down
civilian airliners all the time. Yeah, Like that's a very
common thing. But I think I think that's that's a
(21:24):
smoke screed, right, because like even like the actual thing
that if you're if you're a militant group, usually the
thing that you want to be doing if you have
one of these weapons is shooting down the things that
the people who are bombing you. Yeah, And I think
there's a really interesting sort of like psychological thing going
on here. This is this is the sort of propaganda
thing that that you know, to to get to get
like you random person to be terrified of, Like you know,
(21:48):
the Kurds having surface to air missiles, is they used
like they use people's like fear of getting blown up
on an airplane. It's like no, no, like click at
like you know, evidence suggests that what is actually what
actually happens that these is that they shoot down drones.
Speaker 2 (22:03):
Yeah, yes, exactly right, and not like the other thing,
which is somewhat remarkable. It's it would be one thing
to have got your hands on one or two, but
to have been to have shut down in a one
year pit well just over one year from February thirteenth,
twenty twenty three until marks the first, twenty twenty four,
they have shot down fifteen UAVs like that. That's a
(22:24):
that's a decent number of manpads or maybe not manpads.
That's the other thing we kind of didn't mention, right,
Like bait raptas can fly very high. We were just
sort of checking this out before the show, and I
think they can fly around seven thousand meters, which when
in theory put about side feet twenty five thousand feet, yeah,
which is about twice the like the the height previous
(22:47):
generation man pads like things like stingers and iglers can
can operate at I'm not sure of the the what
the for for an igler reach targets and macxum altitude
of two thy five hundred meters.
Speaker 3 (23:00):
So yeah, that's a little under.
Speaker 2 (23:02):
As high as these as these like attack drones can fly,
maybe they have to come lower to like launch their munitions,
or maybe they come lower to to search for people
and presumably looking for The Kurdistan Freedom Movement has guerrillas
all over these mountains right here, extremely well camouflaged and
extremely adept at avoiding drone attacks because that is what
(23:24):
they have been doing for for a long time.
Speaker 3 (23:27):
So maybe that's how.
Speaker 2 (23:28):
But also maybe maybe there's something that we're not aware
of or some kind of Maybe it's not a man
portable system at all. Maybe it's something that is like
fixed in place well, and that and that comes.
Speaker 4 (23:39):
I think one of the one of the really interesting
questions to you, which is how on earth did they
get these? Yeah, whatever whatever system you're using, you know
normally like the only way, like you know, like has
blah or the whoies get them from Iran? Right, But
the Radians are absolutely like, under no circumstances are they
going to I mean maybe if Turkey declared war on Iran,
(24:01):
there's like a five percent chance maybe in like their
darkest hour, they might try this, Like there's no way.
Speaker 2 (24:07):
Yeah, Like Iraq and Iran have repeatedly attempted to mobilize
the Kurds against each other, right, but yeah, I think
that they would draw the line at handing over manpads and.
Speaker 4 (24:18):
Yeah, and they're definitely not getting them from the US.
Speaker 2 (24:21):
No, then they're using them in areas where they're with
the US, and the US has been very clears.
Speaker 4 (24:26):
Like like you know, it's it's it's definitely not I
don't think it's any other Western country either, Like, yeah,
it doesn't make any sense. Like I mean, maybe like
based Sweden smuggling pads in or something, but I really
doubt it, which leaves it really like up in the air.
I mean, like maybe Russia maybe somehow, I don't know.
(24:47):
It's it's it's all very weird.
Speaker 2 (24:51):
Yeah, And I mean like in recent months, the A
Side regime, which is backed by Russia, has been an
open conflict with the SDF, So I think it it's
it's very unlikely, like the Asad regime has been fighting
with and killing it and dying with ye again in Syria,
so it seems very unlikely. Yeah, it's very That's what's
(25:13):
very strange, Like the there seems to be a couple
of different groups of people, right, like the Kuren have
popped up with these previous generations Igla.
Speaker 3 (25:23):
Kind of manpads.
Speaker 2 (25:25):
The Kitchin have shot down a lot of planes recently,
and it's not entirely clear how so the Kitchen or
another ethnic group in Myanmar a somewhat closer ties to
the pr C. The United ware State Army have manpads.
They are the sort of closest tied to the PRC
of the e r os in Myanma. I'm using a
lot of acronyms here on it.
Speaker 4 (25:46):
Yeah, this is just the problem we're talking about, Curtis
Group's not I'm talking about, Yes, like the two great
acronym like wars.
Speaker 2 (25:55):
Don't be overlooking the Spanish Civil War, the alphabet soup
of conflicts. Yeah, this is this is a life I've
chosen for myself. So, yeah, the ethnic revolutionary organizations in
Mielma the closest to China. It's the United ware State
Army who have been at the fringes of the conflict,
but it is certainly not fully committed to fighting against
the Hunter in the same way that the Karen, the Kachin,
(26:18):
the Arakan Army, the PDF for the other groups that
form the resistance in Burma or Memma are but there
have definitely been more planes shot down in Memma this
year than in the last few years, So there's perhaps
there's some kind of source in the world for these
(26:40):
service to msas. There will come a point in the
human future, right when one of these is either reverse
engineered or someone just really, if someone had said to
you ten years ago that, like several people online, some
of whom I've spoken to, some of whom our friend
j Camera had spoken to, would be able to construct
a gun that you could print from your computer, like
(27:02):
you'd you'd have said, you're barking right like, and at
some point in the human future someone will work out
how to use things they already have to make something
that can shoot down aircraft. But yeah, it's baffling like that.
There seems to be no obvious answers to where what
the source of these the The last thing I will
say is that there was a yakuzer boss. Yeah, yeah,
(27:25):
this guy legend. It's just like he like, this man's
my man's done nothing wrong. He was convicted of selling
trying to sell man pared to the Korene and I
think to the Kachin, I can't remember if one of
them with the koren Uh and he was trying to
do so very funny. He was calling them cake and
(27:46):
ice cream and incredibly incredibly good cipher. It's a hell
of a it's a banger of an indictment. Everyone should
read it to Keshi. I forget what his last name was,
but he he was trying to sell man pads and
what he was actually doing was being monitored by the DEA.
But the man pads that he thought that he had
(28:08):
access to were fictional, like it was. It was it
was the FEDS who had conned him into thinking they
had man pads. They did have some eighty fours. He
met them in the Netherlands. Took an incredible selfie with
a light anti tank weapon and you can look it up.
Leather jacket, like I think he's got blue aviators on,
(28:28):
Like my man's been arrested for having incredible drip and
it's very sad. But yeah, the man pads he thought
he was selling were fictional. But the fact that people
were like, yeah, this seems reasonable like that people were like, okay,
we're prepared to enter this deal with you. They weren't like,
what are you on about suggests that maybe these things
(28:48):
are entering the market. People will always say that they
came from Afghanistan, like after the US left. But I
don't think the Taliban would have any reason to sell them.
They're getting bombed by Pakistan right now. Like what Yeah, yeah,
it doesn't seem it doesn't make sense to me that
that they would sell them. Yeah, and I one thing
I should also mention is like every single time there
(29:11):
is a war anywhere in the world, there are a
trillion rumors that come out. They're like, oh, there's like
this guy is selling like ex weapons or whatever, and
it's like ninety nine percent of them are false.
Speaker 4 (29:21):
Yeah, yeah, yeah, you hear this all the time and
it's never true. Yes, So that makes it really hard
to sort out like where these things are coming from. Yeah, exactly.
A friend of the podcast, Victor Boot is he's free again.
Speaker 2 (29:37):
He's back maybe maybe maybe he's gotten back on Maybe
the god of war is back.
Speaker 3 (29:44):
Baby.
Speaker 2 (29:45):
It would be incredible, there would be an incredible narrative
art for Victor Boot. But like as we said in
that episode, right, like it's very easy to point to
Victor Boot as being this evil guy, but in fact,
like we've sold a shit ton of weapons to people
who turn out to be pretty pretty uncivil as the
United States, a lot more people working all the other
places that have offices in San Diego made a lot
(30:06):
more money than he did selling weapons to people. So
you know, we ought to be you know, popcorn and
the cut back a bit there, but clearly something is
up with surface to our missiles. I hope this makes
your spring Bak flights more exciting.
Speaker 3 (30:21):
It just gives it a little edge as you take off.
Speaker 2 (30:24):
Don't fly in Turkey, Yeah, yeah, that's the our tip
is to to not fly from not land. I guess
in I mean, like we said, the KSEK and go
to shoot down your civilian plane, then they're nice people.
I'll just say the KSEK and my experience have been
very nice, very forthcoming, extremely communicative and responsive to press requests,
(30:45):
which much more so than a lot a lot of
other state actors. And I don't think you have any
worries abut them shooting down your aircraft. But it's an
interesting development that like yeah, will fundamentally challenge the way
that states are able to squash non state arm groups
going forward.
Speaker 4 (31:06):
Yeah, and if we if we figure out where they
got them from and that becomes public. Well you'll you'll
see the next episode called We found Out where the
mad Pads are from.
Speaker 2 (31:18):
Yeah, I think in unlikelihood to no one's interested to
know to like announce where these are from. And I
don't think you know the ones in in Meanmar. It's
not inconceivable that they came either directly or indirectly from China. Yeah,
certainly that that would be the most feasible. But seeing
them elsewhere it's fascinating, Like it's you know, if somebody
(31:39):
has like either reverse engineered these are there's a large
NAWORITHM available on the black market, like that would be
a sea change in the way conflict happened, right, Like,
you know, it's rare. Right now, it's able to bomb
Palestine with complete impunity. If non state arm groups had
access to manpads there that that maybe wouldn't be the case.
(32:00):
But yeah, it's a change. It's a change in the
way the world goes to war. I think it's always interesting.
It's always interesting, Like for a podcast that was built
on speculative fiction about future collapses, like this certainly is
something that challenges some monopoly of the state. So yeah,
it's something to keep an eye on. I will attach
(32:20):
in the notes the Gorilla TV video of the Beiractars
being shut down. Please enjoyed the soundtrack, Yeah, it's banger.
And we'll also include some links to those videos of
the Kurne National Liberation Army with their man pads. If
you're a manpads understander, you know you know where to
find me. It's all over the internet.
Speaker 3 (32:39):
Yeah. With that, I will leave you have a great weekend.
Don't fly your cessnas.
Speaker 1 (32:49):
It could Happen here as a production of cool Zone Media.
For more podcasts and cool Zone Media, visitor website cool
zonemedia dot com, or check us out on the iHeartRadio app,
Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to Potts. You can
find sources for It could Happen Here, updated monthly at
coolzonemedia dot com slash sources. Thanks for listening.
It Could Happen Here News
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Robert Evans
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