November 15, 2023 • 44 mins
James talks to Billy Ford of the United States Institute of Peace and Sayar Mohn Tine of the Mandalay PDF about the huge changes in the conflict in Myanmar and how the PDFs and EROS built an alliance that put the junta on the back foot.
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
Calls media.
Speaker 2 (00:03):
Hello everyone, it's me James, and I am joining you
today for another and long series of the little recordings
where I ask you to give us your money. Once again,
I am asking you to support the mutual aid work
being done at the border. I'm recording this in November,
and this week we have terrible weather forecasts that will
(00:24):
make conditions in her Cumba extremely dangerous for people who
are detained out there by the Department of Homeland Security.
It will mean that it's no exaggeration to say that
people's lives will be at risk, and that the important
mutual aid work that's already been done will only become
more important as we get rain, we get snow, and
we get cold temperatures, and people continue to be detained
(00:44):
without shelter, food, water, or adequate clothing. If you would
like to support those efforts, you can find the way
to do so at link tree slash Border Kindness. There's
a dot before the ee, so it's l I n
k t E R dot e E slash Border Kindness.
I'll suppose a link on my Twitter if you'd like
(01:05):
to find it there. Thank you. In the week since
(01:48):
the end of October, the conflict landscape in Miamma has
significantly changed. The Hunter and its alignment issues have taken
unprecedented losses in the PDF, as well as several ethnic
revolutionary organizations have swept across the country, seizing bases, weapons, tanks,
and even towns and cities. As the offensive was ongoing,
I spoke to Sire montine A, leader in the madelid PDF,
(02:10):
and Billy Ford of the United States Institute for Peace.
What follows is my conversation with Billy and some insights
on a situation on the ground with the madel Ai PDF.
You'll hear more from Sire Montiney in another episode that
we're working on, but I wanted you to hear his
personal on the ground perspective now as well. First, I
let nine nine, the translator from mandele A PDF, introduce
(02:32):
our guest.
Speaker 3 (02:33):
Oh yeah, Layes.
Speaker 1 (02:36):
He is the leader of the Commanding and Cohesion team,
and you can also.
Speaker 3 (02:43):
Say that he the leader of our organization.
Speaker 2 (02:47):
To start with, I asked Billy to explain for you
the developments in the conflict in the last few weeks.
Speaker 4 (02:52):
I mean, it's really been just the past, what is
it since the twenty seven so thirteen days kind of
a level whole change in the conflict trajectory. Whereas I'd say,
I mean you got coup February first, twenty twenty one,
major military operate resistance operations began September seventh, twenty twenty one,
and frankly since then it's been more or less incremental change.
(03:16):
You can, I wouldn't characterize it as a stalemate as
many have, but there's there's essentially been, you know, small
pockets of progress where the resistance is capturing territory, but
all almost exclusively rural areas of the country. And then
things changed radically on October twenty seventh, when whereas before
(03:41):
the twenty seventh you had a range of armed stakeholders
involved in the conflicts, some under the deposed National Unity government,
as well as what's called the K three C which
is four of the biggest ethnic army organizations. But a
lot a lot of the reason why we hadn't seen
the level change in the military balance of power was
(04:04):
because of the absence of some of the biggest and
most powerful armed organizations that had more or less state
on the sidelines. I mean they were arming and training
resistance forces that were engaged in active combat, but they
hadn't themselves in a meaningful way. But on the twenty
seventh that totally changed. This alliance called the Brotherhood Alliance
(04:26):
that involves three of the biggest armed organizations initiated coordinated
attacks in Northern Shan State on the border with China
and have since the twenty seventh. We're talking to you
on the tenth here of November, one hundred and fifty
posts have been taken. Seven towns are now under full
(04:49):
resistance control, seven others by my counter under partial resistance control.
And the operation in Northern Shan State on the border
has effectively spurred resistance operations in other parts of the country,
and so now you essentially have operations in all corners
(05:11):
of the country. I mean, you've seen PDFs taking towns
in sagaiin along the Indian border. You've seen the can
you taking important towns on the logistics corridor on the
Thai border. Karenni groups have moved into Meyse on the
Thaie border with Kareni State. The Chin National Front has
(05:33):
initiated attacks in Balatwa and Southern Chin State near the
Bangladesh India border. Yeah, so it's really just the trajectory
of conflict has gone from an incremental trajectory where it's
like this is a slow burn that could last a
long time to a we need to start thinking about
potentially day after. I mean, nothing is a given, and
(05:57):
the Minama military has been resils in the past, but
it does feel like this is a historic moment in
a lot of ways, and the military is weakened in
a way that we've really never seen in the history
of the country.
Speaker 2 (06:11):
I asked Montiney to explain a little about how he
got to a point where his force, who hadn't fought
it all in twenty twenty one, we're able to fight
alongside the eros and did a serious defeat to the junta.
Speaker 1 (06:24):
So in twenty one March he decided to go for
the unrevolutions and then he started reading the books about
the military and tactics and then warfare things. And then
he said that he is still learning and reading from
the books about the military tactics till now. And one
(06:49):
more thing is we are having some problems about the
other rebirth defense for dif that they don't have the
well farming and then they don't follow the code of
context or something like that. So we organize well that
(07:10):
we won't become a blood dirsty organization, but just to
fight for the military pool. And one more thing is
we are following the two CEOC, which is a code
of conduct and then chain of commands before we bomb
(07:33):
up us.
Speaker 3 (07:34):
The these military organizations, a.
Speaker 2 (07:37):
Number of the Eros or Acnams you won't have heard before,
and that's because they haven't been part of the conflict before.
So I asked Billy to explain who the Eros in
the north were and how and why are they identityfied now?
Speaker 4 (07:48):
Sure? So, the ark On Army is a kind ethnic
based armed organization. They're based on the China border, but
for the who know memr geography or kind state is
actually on the complete other side of the country. But this,
like many were like many newer armed organizations, they were
(08:08):
essentially incubated by some of the longer term armed organizations.
In this case, the Kachin Independence Army helped for the
emergence of the Arakan Army, which has really grown in
the past ten years into one of the strongest armed
stakeholders in the country. Before the coup under the On
(08:31):
Sansuchil National League for Democracy government they were in intense
fighting with the MR military and on Sansuchi strongly supported
the m R military's operations against the AA, and that
kind of built some bad blood, as you might be
might imagine, between the AA and the National League for Democracy,
(08:52):
and that bad blood has made it difficult to build
alliance across ethnic lines and with those resistance organizationations that
involve NLD folks. But the key point here is that
the AA is operating in two places, were Kind State
and in Northern Shan State on the and Kachin State
also actually it's a gay now but and they're an
(09:13):
extremely powerful armed organization, highly disciplined, highly effective, well armed.
The second group is the Ta'ang National Liberation Army. This
is a an ethnic based army in northern Shan State
that also is a relatively a newer armed organization. They
(09:36):
it's it's a pretty complex military environment in Northern Shan
State because the t n l A are often in
tension with other Shan ethnic groups that are in Shan State,
including the r c s S or the Shan State
Army South, which is competing for control in other parts
(09:56):
of Shan State. We've also seen some tension between the
t n l A and the s s p P,
which is another Northern Shan army that's closely aligned with
the wah and Chinese. So that's a that's a pretty
complex array of relationships there. But the t NLA is
also an increasingly powerful armed organization one that administer Administer's
(10:20):
territory and has also been locked in conflict with the
MEMORY military for some time. The last group is the
m n d a A the MEMR National Democratic Alliance
Army UH. This is a Ko Kong ethnic based armed
organization that for a long time controlled territory along the
(10:44):
China border. In two thousand and nine, men Online who
is now the commander in chief and the head of
the SAC. He essentially was leading commands in north in
the northeast and led operations to push the m n
d a A out of that territory and replace it
(11:05):
with a border guard force of another ethnic Ko Kong
ethnic army. And we can get back to that. But
that ethnic army became or is a criminal enterprise that's
now operating massive scam and human trafficking operations with the
support of the MR military. They're commissioned under the MEMR military,
(11:29):
but I think a key point here is that there's
it's very personal with the m n d a A
and this Border Guard Force and and Men Online, and
so this is really the m n d a A
is an organization that has been pushing for a very
long time to retake this territory and particularly this city
of Lauchai. And so that that that three constitutes the
(11:52):
Brotherhood Alliance. There's other stakeholders in this region, including the
United Waw State Army, which is the largest armed organization
in Myanmar, or non state armed organization as well, which
is very closely tied with the Chinese. I mean they
use Chinese currency, they speak Chinese, they fully administer their
(12:18):
territory and autonomously. And then the other organizations that are
relevant here is the National Democratic Alliance Army and d
a A, which is essentially you can think of it
as a closely tied with the law and the Chinese.
And then the Kachin Independence Army, which is a Kachin
ethnic based armed organization very much founded as a social
(12:42):
services I mean it's it's kind of got a different
identity from some of these other groups. It's very much
like a revolutionary organization with political intentions. Uh, there's kind
of Christian beliefs that are embedded within the organization. So yeah,
I want to say it's a highly complex actors with
different intentions and motivations, but in this particular case, they
(13:04):
came together to at least the Brotherhood Alliance came together
to launch this this coordinated attack.
Speaker 2 (13:11):
The T'ang National Liberation Army the group who received many
of the young people of Mandalay who went on to
form the Mandelaid PDF. Those young people started out as
a strikeforce within Mandlay but there are only weapons on
Molotov cocktails, and every action they took was the rest
of their whole families if they were caught by march.
A few weeks into the revolution, Montenay and others took
(13:33):
to the mountains with the Tang National Liberation Army to
learn to fight. Before the revolution, he said he had
no experience and he didn't even play fighting video games.
I asked him how it felt to be joining a
group he'd been raised to hate and how he got there.
Speaker 1 (13:48):
Before we formed Manleay perif, we started as an MSDA,
which is a Manlay four, the first training for our organizations,
and at the time we only have a sam handmade
(14:09):
weapons like Molotov, but we really don't use like handmade guns.
But the after the support of TNLLY, we we got
the automatic rifles with the help of our alliance and UH.
At first when we act as a MSTF manally special
(14:31):
Task Force, we restrict the rooms for not attaching to
the schools or hospitals or the civilians. And then after
that we start using the handmade weapons like just like Molotov.
We didn't use any handguns at the time, but after
that we trained UH and we contact with the atn
(14:55):
l E. We have we now have the automatic rifles
and then others UH missiles or something like that.
Speaker 3 (15:03):
Now.
Speaker 1 (15:04):
So when he decided to contact with the t n
l E the Nasal, what he expected were nothing else
but some few problems that about the racists because of
most of the ethnic groups, they most of them they
(15:25):
hate Bumbis people and they even called the Bambi's army.
So he was explaining that we will be having a
racist problems. But when he actually reached to the end
region UH, he found out that there is no hatred
to the Bombish people and then there was no problem
(15:48):
about the racist problems.
Speaker 3 (15:50):
Yeah, he also thought that it's because of the.
Speaker 1 (15:53):
Communit comunication between the Bambi's.
Speaker 3 (15:55):
People and the Aloan.
Speaker 1 (15:58):
Racist Uhlan people. They provide tea, leaves and the other
things to eat bambished people and then they make some
tradings and then some they do some business with barbised people,
so that there was no problem about that. But the
(16:21):
only other thing was about the weather, because of the
rough weather in the mountains, it's a very different weather
from the like Manulee region. It's very cool for the
people from the Manley region, the Manleys, Yeah, and in
(16:42):
mountains it's very cold in here. So we still having
problems about the weather problems, but now we are getting
used to it.
Speaker 3 (16:52):
And he said that he is also surprised that t.
Speaker 1 (16:56):
N l A, the AD National Division Army is wealth
all military and then they also following the code of
conduct and then the following the democracy way and then
most of the leaders from the t and LA of
the liberal ideas and then they also one we work
(17:17):
on to the young leaders.
Speaker 3 (17:19):
From the revolution for us. So see, he was surprised
about that.
Speaker 2 (17:25):
Billy told me that this same dynamic HAULD occurred all
over the country. And this is probably a good time
to remind listeners that we've covered the formation of the
PDFs and our two previous series about Memmar and if
you haven't had the time to listen to those, I
really hope you do because it'll make this one a
lot more interesting and this one probably won't make much
sense without it.
Speaker 4 (17:42):
Yeah, and I think this is really a key dynamic,
and we can come back to the conversation maybe about
day after the political dimensions of the conflict, but there's
frankly before the coup, these sorts of coordinations would be
uh like incomprehensible. I mean you'd see the Arakan Army,
(18:06):
the Kachin Independence Army, the Ta'ang National Liberation Army, all
of them have deep connections with mostly Bamar ethnic pds,
some of whom work in coordination with the National Unity Government,
some which are slightly more independent. But the this is
(18:27):
an inter ethnic collaboration that's that's very novel and demonstrates
a shift and inter ethnic and intercommunal dynamics in the
country that are is very positive in a lot of ways.
So Yeah, the t n l A. The has been
(18:49):
providing weapons and training for PDFs in Mandalay, the k
O the k I A has been providing weapons, in
training and tactical and strategic support to PDFs in Sagan
and the Arakan Army has been maybe more than any
group providing tactical UH support and weapons and training to
PDFs and b Goo Airwadi, Maguay and now more recently
(19:12):
in Sigai in so really the the Burman heartland of
the country. So yeah, all of these ethnic minority based
armed organizations are now collaborating, sharing resources and knowledge with UH,
with with Bamar ethnic PDFs. There's a so that I
(19:34):
think the main question here is like, what does this
mean for intercommunal relations? What does this mean for the
future UH of you know, of the country? Is there?
Does this indicate there's potential for greater national solidarity in
the absence of the MEMR military, fracturing communities and so on.
But yeah, it's it's a it's a radical shift in
(19:55):
those relationships.
Speaker 2 (19:56):
But he also shared that as we've heard from every
single PDF fighter we've talked to, their time alongside the
eros Is comrades in arms has changed the way they
see ethnicity in the future of their country.
Speaker 4 (20:07):
And I think this is also manifesting a lot of
the research that my organization, the US Institute of Peace,
has been doing at the among the general public. I mean,
we've done three different studies over the past year to
assess intercremual relations in the post couperiod and to kind
of see how relations have shifted, because there's a really
(20:27):
dominant narrative that MEMR is kind of irreconcilably fractured and
that the communities are loyal to their ethnic identities not
their national identities and so on, and frankly, all of
our research has has pointed to a similar trend, which
(20:48):
is one, inter ethnic relations are considerably better. There's a
there's greater solidarity. There's actually one of the the experimental
research studies that we did found that national identity, as
in being from MEMMR was more was more important to
(21:08):
respond ince than ethnic identity, which totally cuts against narratives
about MEMMAR. And Yeah, I mean, I think there's been
considerable gains and inter ethnic relations, and it's you know,
it's hard to determine, you know, the causal linkages here,
whether you know, the improved inter ethnic relations are spurring
(21:31):
greater military collaboration and collaboration on humanitarian assistants and governance
and so on. But it does feel like there's a
major shift and social dynamics in addition to these kind
of military shifts that are taking place. I mean, I
think that the research we've done has found there to
be sort of extremist national perspectives still remain, but that
(21:58):
they're the likelihood of them escalating to violence is reduced,
in large part because the public's vulnerability to UH incitement
or to a highly devisive political speech. Most of what
came from Melmar military run troll farms is is much
I mean, there's much more resilience to those that that
(22:20):
form of political violence. So, you know, I think there's
still a lot of work obviously to do to build
intercommunal cohesion and understanding, but that the likelihood you know,
for example, in a post sac world that you will
be you know, see mass intercommunal violence, it seems much
(22:42):
lower than a lot of people are presuming that it
would be that the that the actual horizontal relationships across
communities are not are not as bad as many presume. Actually,
one of the surveys that we did found that Memar's
intercommunal relations are no worse than countries with much lower
levels of violence, which is kind of an indication of
(23:04):
the fact that it's really vertical dynamics like violent political speech,
highly exclusionary governance structures that are driving intercommunal violence, and
so that those on that dimension at least that the
person to person intercommunal relation or relationships. I think there's
a lot to be a lot of positive narratives there.
Speaker 2 (23:29):
Talking of positive narratives, here's some positive narratives about products
and or services. Another aspect of the conflict that's played
out in Operation ten twenty seven, it's the role of
China and the massive crime empires that the junta has
(23:51):
facilitated along the country's borders in recent years. I asked
Billy to explain some of those.
Speaker 4 (23:56):
So this has become the major political dynamic between China
and the SAC over the past year. Frankly, I mean,
it's essentially what we've seen is the emergence of these
massive scam operations that use foreign labor that's trafficked into
MEMR into areas controlled primarily by MEMMR military commissioned border
(24:22):
guard forces. So these are commissioned under the MEMR military,
which is a very key point in most cases, and
they are running scam operations at a global level that
are scamming people using a scheme called pig butchering, which
is long term relationship building. And then you're yeah, theft
(24:44):
at a large scale. This is like, these are sizable
losses from individuals. So last year, for example, to give
you a sense of that scale, China lost twenty billion
dollars to these scam operations. Twenty billion, Yeah, you know,
of states lost two billion dollars on scam operations emerging
from Menmar. I mean, the scale of this is wild.
(25:07):
I mean there's more than there's more than one hundred
thousand people being held in scam zones in Meanmar from
forty six different countries. I mean, it's a it's this
is a total global operation because I mean this emerged
actually before COVID, I mean in sia Hanookville, Cambodia and
other places where there's you know, rule of laws is dubious.
(25:29):
They have the initiated kind of casino operations which are
illegal in China and really targeting Chinese public. And during COVID,
when China a lot of Chinese nationals were forced back
to mainland China. These criminal enterprises were short on labor,
and so they shifted their approach. I mean they shifted
(25:50):
to trafficking people into their zones and then operating at
a global scale finding labor from around the world, you know,
using not not low skilled labor. I mean this is
these are high skilled kind of middle class workers seeking
employment in the tech industry or some other scheme that
(26:11):
they you know, eventually they're you know, held at gunpoint
and forced to scam their co nationals. So that's a
little bit of background. So this is happening in Ko
Kong along the Chinese border, also in the Wa territories
and in the n d a A territories. The largest
areas are actually on the Thai Burma border with the
(26:34):
Kren Border Guard Force and affiliated criminal organizations. So essentially,
over the past year, the Chinese have have noticed not
only the financial losses but the potential for social instability
because as youth unemployment has grown in China, you know,
(26:55):
these young people are seeking new employment opportunities, crossing the
border and memr for high paying tech jobs and then
being held at gunpoints. So you have you know, mothers
on social media saying I haven't seen my son in
three weeks and you know he's being held in a
scam operation. So you know this is this is dileitarious
at two levels. You know, the financial scam losses and
(27:18):
the trafficking, and it's all being run by border guard
forces that are commissioned by the Melamar military. And yet
you see countries around the world, including China, going to
the Malamar military and saying, please shut this down. And
of course the Malmur military has no intention to shut
this down because these these scam operations are financing the
(27:41):
border guard forces that are their key weapon against the resistance.
So they need the border guard forces and so they
will never shut down the scam operations. And so what
what ensued was essentially earlier this year, I mean, the
Chinese came to the Malmour military and said, we will
support you at every level. We will prop you up,
(28:02):
provide you weapons, to provide you assistance if you can
demonstrate the capacity to govern, the capacity to provide stability
on our border, the capacity to provide to allow us
to pursue our economic interests. And the SAC has completely
failed this test. Scam operations have exploded China's economic interests.
(28:24):
The Chupu, especially economic zone remains in a impact assessment phase.
The lepid on copper mind is non functional, the Mitzo
dam is non functional. They're just not getting out of
the SAC what they wanted, and so there was a
meaningful shift recently, it appears, and I think by all
(28:47):
indicators that we can see the Chinese Greenlit Operation ten
twenty seven that they at least did not stand in
their way, and you'll see from the then Daa, I
mean they really were the leaders of the operation that
in the statements that they issued about the operation itself
(29:08):
and when they articulated their objectives, the first objective was
to shut down scam operations. I mean you can see
that this is they're speaking to a Chinese public and
the government indicating that we're a responsible, good faith actor
that will shut down these enterprises that are trafficking your
(29:29):
citizens and scamming the public out of billions of dollars.
So this has become a really dominant dynamic in the
relationship between the Chinese and the SAC, and it's it
leads to a really weakened position for the SAC if
(29:50):
they're not being propped up in the way that they
have been for so long by by the Chinese. So
we'll have to see how this kind of unfolds, but
it's not looking good for the military.
Speaker 2 (30:02):
When we do see how this unfolds, it'll be people
like the mandl a PDF who we see leading the
charge for a new and democratic MIANDMA. We don't exactly
know what that means, but I asked them if the
weapons see is in operation ten twenty seven, we'll allow
them to arm more fighters and get there faster.
Speaker 1 (30:20):
We are also now recruiting a new recruits, but we
will we will have to recruit until the genter is gone.
And we also need more soldiers to form up the
better army than the gener after we want, even after
(30:41):
we want, we are going to need some more human
resources to form up the better army than the male army,
you know. And for the arms and ammunitions, we got
a lot of arm and ammunitions from the male like AMI,
but we it's they use a different type of the ammunitions.
(31:07):
And then because we, for example, we use like A
K types, we have the different so it is not
very possible to arm the better weapons from the the
Maylie amy. We only used some of the weapons, like
(31:28):
for the artillery or something like that, but that's only
a few we got from them. What we really need
is about the better artillery or S A M or
something like that for the air strips. So yeah, it's
not very usedful for us from the anthem ammunition we
(31:51):
got from the Male Army. He said that the main
points in the arm revolution is it's about two cature
the important points, not to catcha all the CDs or
something like that, like to catchure the enemy sec quotas
or the important places. We are going to need more plants,
(32:17):
and then he say that he's unclear about that.
Speaker 2 (32:21):
I asked Billy what he thought we could expect in
the new Mianma. I see points out here. Everything every
circled analysts has said has been proven wrong by the revolution.
They've exceeded the wildest expectations of experts in London and Washington, DC,
and where they go next is really up to them.
Speaker 4 (32:38):
Good question, and frankly, I don't have a lot of
information about that. I mean, you've seen pictures over the
past twelve days of the as the resistance has taken
one hundred and fifty posts. They've definitely captured a lot
of heavy munitions and artillery, but yeah, I'm not sure
service to air capabilities. I mean, I think the the
(33:00):
fact that the Menommur military is not able to push
the resistance out of urban areas. I mean, this is
the first time really that the resistance moved into urban
areas and held them, including into guy and I mean
Colon has been they're holding it and so I mean
that seems to be an indication to me that the
(33:21):
ESSAYCS capability is weakening. I mean, yeah, their their access
to foreign currency and to purchase weapons is highly constrained now.
I mean their primary providers Russia and China, you know,
ones fighting their own war and the other is kind
of is a little bit more skeptical as to whether
(33:41):
they deserve their support. I mean they just last week
the US initiated new sanctions on the Meanoma oil and
Gas enterprise. They provided half a billion dollars in revenue
for the junta per year. Yeah, that's a major that's
a major issue for them accessing US dollars, which they
need to buy weapons. I mean, the Ties can no
(34:06):
longer pay the Memoir military and USD and the memor
military doesn't want bought, so they're literally negotiating barter agreements
where they you know, sell gas for material goods. But
now you have the Resistance controlling you know, part of
cocker Rig on the Asia Highway into Thailand. I mean,
(34:27):
they control the borders or the starting to in a
way they hadn't before, So even this sort of bartering
or material trade is less viable. So yeah, I mean,
I think they're just really asset constrained. And it does
I mean, just the fact that they haven't been able
to retake these critical logistic ups. I mean, the border
(34:51):
crossings that the Resistance has have controlled constitute forty percent
of the of the of the overland trade between China
and memor It's like, you know, it's like four billion
dollars in value that's being you know, that tax loss
for the SAC it's considerable. It's considerable losses there as well.
And how long they can really hold out and maintain
(35:12):
their air assets is really questionable, particularly since they've had
to massively diversify their air asset purchase, which really makes
it more complex to service points. And so yeah, I mean,
I think I'm not sure that the Resistance has much
more capacity in service to air or air defense, but
(35:34):
it does seem like the SACS capacity to inflict atrocities
in this way has also been constrained.
Speaker 2 (35:40):
Yeah, it sort of flies in the face of every
sort of like analytical idea about the assets that you
need to have in order to be successful in one
of these Like they've they've really proved a lot of
people wrong in a really impressive way. I know, you
have to go I want to ask one more real
quick the did these towns did the SAC pull out
(36:04):
of the towns or did they like fight house to
house or like how did they did it?
Speaker 4 (36:10):
Very across Well, the I mean the SAC was you know,
in their barracks themselves. I mean in these towns, it's
a national uprising. The public is you know, opposed to
the presence. This is an occupying force, and so yeah,
it's just moving in and capturing military posts. And as
(36:32):
one person resistance fighter indicated, essentially you fire your gun
in the air and they lay down their weapons, which
is more you know, an indication of of where the
military stands and the support that these these highly isolated
I mean, this is a fractured light infantry force that's
dispersed at posts all over the country, and you know
(36:55):
they're resupplying from the Northwest Command in monuoas to town
within thirty minutes drive by helicopter because they can't they
can't move, so there's just not logistics support to these posts.
And so yeah, you've got folks in there that just
the will to fight is pretty small. Morale is shrinking
(37:18):
from a very low base, and so I think there
was the The general pattern is just resistance taking military
barracks and posts rather than having to go house to house.
I mean there's villages in towns where there's these groups
called pew Sawtee that are like military aligned militias, but yeah,
(37:40):
that's not really you know, a nationwide fighting force, and
it's in most cases it really is just the resistance
capturing posts and pushing out a military personnel. And I
mean there was a they're also using drones to a
high degree of effectiveness. They recently killed a colonel who
(38:01):
was on he was about to be become a brigadier general,
the highest ranking person who have been killed in battle
from the Memora military through a drone strike in northern
Shun State, I believe for kit Chen and I think that, yeah,
the resistance drone capabilities have also increased considerably. And this
(38:24):
is also an area where you see NUG collaborating a
lot with the arrows. So yeah, it's it's it's just yeah,
it's a barracks, you know, menmoial military personnel and they
just in many cases just lay down their arms because
it's just morale so low, and the probability of them
(38:46):
to be able to fend off indefinitely is when they
have the public against them and a resistance movement against them.
It's just really a challenge ex set of conditions for them.
Speaker 2 (39:06):
We don't know exactly what the future of Myanmar is,
but it took an interesting turn in the last few
weeks with the k and DF the Saquareni National Defense
Force fifth Battalion issuing a statement of solidarity with the
people of Rejava and the people of Java in the
form of the YPG and the YPGA, their defense units
of men and women respectively, recording a response a great
(39:28):
risk during the ongoing grown campaign expressing their solidarity and
support for the revolutionary people of Myanmar, something will cover
in greater detail on another episode, but it's yet another
illustration of how the revolutionary people of Myanmar have continued
to defy everyone's expectations about how and where they will
go next, and how they've managed to dream up a
(39:49):
vision for a more equal and just future even as
they face the injustice and inequality of fighting a war
the world doesn't seem to care about without a single
dollar of international military little support, and then strongly worded
letters from the UN At sporadic intervals. As we come
to the end of the episode, I asked Sam Montine
if he had anything else he would like to share
(40:11):
with our listeners.
Speaker 3 (40:12):
Okay, he said that.
Speaker 1 (40:15):
If he is able to talk, he wants them to
know that we are not the white people. We most
of them are educated, and we are only plying for
the democracy. But in some international news there will be
(40:37):
some news that, like PDF the revolution forces are killing
each other or something like that, but it's like not
fully correct. Maybe some a few will be doing that,
but most of us are not doing that way.
Speaker 3 (40:57):
It's just a propagonna from.
Speaker 1 (40:58):
The like me.
Speaker 3 (41:00):
You know. We also say that we are no more
expecting for the help from the other countries.
Speaker 1 (41:10):
We will be fighting our own and then with our
spiritatively in And he also wanted to say that to
the US government or the King of England or the
other countries authorities that we are not wild ones. We
(41:31):
are educated, and then we are just fighting to get
the democracy back to our country.
Speaker 3 (41:38):
He's using a little.
Speaker 1 (41:39):
Bit from wards, you know, say that if other governments
are not helping us because they can't get any benefits
from helping us, even if they don't want to help us,
just don't look as like we are the wild ones.
We will be trying to get the level of the
(42:04):
other countries. We will always be trying for that. If
you have any chance to speak out in a seminar
or the workshops or any other things or any meetings,
he wants you to tell the news about killings each
(42:24):
other of our revolution forces is just a propagunnas of sac.
If there is no more Sac, there would be no
issues like the anymore. Most of some issues are just
because of Sac and then they spread in some rumors
(42:45):
about that and then take news. You know, if you
guys can come and visit us, and then you can
see how we treat people, and then how we respect
the civilians, and then how we follow a lot of
context in person.
Speaker 2 (43:02):
If you want to follow the mate APDF, you can
search them on Facebook. Where they post regular updates. We'll
include the link in the show notes for you. If
you want to hear more from Billy, I'll let him
tell you how sure.
Speaker 4 (43:13):
Yeah, I mean, we put out a paper at us
IP dot org yesterday on the relationship between the scam
operations and the the the conflict dynamics. I'm putting one
out probably next week on the day after quote unquote dynamics,
summarizing some of our research. I'm on Twitter at b
(43:35):
I L L E E the number four, the letter D,
so you can try to stay up on some of
the conflict dynamics there. But yeah, the USIP website where
we published most of our most of our stuff.
Speaker 2 (43:48):
In closing, I just want to share how much hope
I found in the conflict in the MR in recent weeks.
At a time when the world seems so full of cruelty,
it's inspiring to see people relatively unified, committed to respecting
life and civilians and succeeding against all the odds. This
doesn't mean they don't need help. They do desperately, and
(44:09):
I hope that as people continue to advocate to civilians
in Gaza, they can include civilians and revolutionaries from Meandmark
in their demands going forward, It could happen here as
a production of cool Zone Media.
Speaker 1 (44:24):
For more podcasts from cool Zone Media, visit our website
cool zonemedia dot com or check us out on the
iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to podcasts.
You can find sources for It could Happen Here, updated
monthly at cool zonemedia dot com slash sources. Thanks for listening.
Calls media.
Speaker 2 (00:03):
Hello everyone, it's me James, and I am joining you
today for another and long series of the little recordings
where I ask you to give us your money. Once again,
I am asking you to support the mutual aid work
being done at the border. I'm recording this in November,
and this week we have terrible weather forecasts that will
(00:24):
make conditions in her Cumba extremely dangerous for people who
are detained out there by the Department of Homeland Security.
It will mean that it's no exaggeration to say that
people's lives will be at risk, and that the important
mutual aid work that's already been done will only become
more important as we get rain, we get snow, and
we get cold temperatures, and people continue to be detained
(00:44):
without shelter, food, water, or adequate clothing. If you would
like to support those efforts, you can find the way
to do so at link tree slash Border Kindness. There's
a dot before the ee, so it's l I n
k t E R dot e E slash Border Kindness.
I'll suppose a link on my Twitter if you'd like
(01:05):
to find it there. Thank you. In the week since
(01:48):
the end of October, the conflict landscape in Miamma has
significantly changed. The Hunter and its alignment issues have taken
unprecedented losses in the PDF, as well as several ethnic
revolutionary organizations have swept across the country, seizing bases, weapons, tanks,
and even towns and cities. As the offensive was ongoing,
I spoke to Sire montine A, leader in the madelid PDF,
(02:10):
and Billy Ford of the United States Institute for Peace.
What follows is my conversation with Billy and some insights
on a situation on the ground with the madel Ai PDF.
You'll hear more from Sire Montiney in another episode that
we're working on, but I wanted you to hear his
personal on the ground perspective now as well. First, I
let nine nine, the translator from mandele A PDF, introduce
(02:32):
our guest.
Speaker 3 (02:33):
Oh yeah, Layes.
Speaker 1 (02:36):
He is the leader of the Commanding and Cohesion team,
and you can also.
Speaker 3 (02:43):
Say that he the leader of our organization.
Speaker 2 (02:47):
To start with, I asked Billy to explain for you
the developments in the conflict in the last few weeks.
Speaker 4 (02:52):
I mean, it's really been just the past, what is
it since the twenty seven so thirteen days kind of
a level whole change in the conflict trajectory. Whereas I'd say,
I mean you got coup February first, twenty twenty one,
major military operate resistance operations began September seventh, twenty twenty one,
and frankly since then it's been more or less incremental change.
(03:16):
You can, I wouldn't characterize it as a stalemate as
many have, but there's there's essentially been, you know, small
pockets of progress where the resistance is capturing territory, but
all almost exclusively rural areas of the country. And then
things changed radically on October twenty seventh, when whereas before
(03:41):
the twenty seventh you had a range of armed stakeholders
involved in the conflicts, some under the deposed National Unity government,
as well as what's called the K three C which
is four of the biggest ethnic army organizations. But a
lot a lot of the reason why we hadn't seen
the level change in the military balance of power was
(04:04):
because of the absence of some of the biggest and
most powerful armed organizations that had more or less state
on the sidelines. I mean they were arming and training
resistance forces that were engaged in active combat, but they
hadn't themselves in a meaningful way. But on the twenty
seventh that totally changed. This alliance called the Brotherhood Alliance
(04:26):
that involves three of the biggest armed organizations initiated coordinated
attacks in Northern Shan State on the border with China
and have since the twenty seventh. We're talking to you
on the tenth here of November, one hundred and fifty
posts have been taken. Seven towns are now under full
(04:49):
resistance control, seven others by my counter under partial resistance control.
And the operation in Northern Shan State on the border
has effectively spurred resistance operations in other parts of the country,
and so now you essentially have operations in all corners
(05:11):
of the country. I mean, you've seen PDFs taking towns
in sagaiin along the Indian border. You've seen the can
you taking important towns on the logistics corridor on the
Thai border. Karenni groups have moved into Meyse on the
Thaie border with Kareni State. The Chin National Front has
(05:33):
initiated attacks in Balatwa and Southern Chin State near the
Bangladesh India border. Yeah, so it's really just the trajectory
of conflict has gone from an incremental trajectory where it's
like this is a slow burn that could last a
long time to a we need to start thinking about
potentially day after. I mean, nothing is a given, and
(05:57):
the Minama military has been resils in the past, but
it does feel like this is a historic moment in
a lot of ways, and the military is weakened in
a way that we've really never seen in the history
of the country.
Speaker 2 (06:11):
I asked Montiney to explain a little about how he
got to a point where his force, who hadn't fought
it all in twenty twenty one, we're able to fight
alongside the eros and did a serious defeat to the junta.
Speaker 1 (06:24):
So in twenty one March he decided to go for
the unrevolutions and then he started reading the books about
the military and tactics and then warfare things. And then
he said that he is still learning and reading from
the books about the military tactics till now. And one
(06:49):
more thing is we are having some problems about the
other rebirth defense for dif that they don't have the
well farming and then they don't follow the code of
context or something like that. So we organize well that
(07:10):
we won't become a blood dirsty organization, but just to
fight for the military pool. And one more thing is
we are following the two CEOC, which is a code
of conduct and then chain of commands before we bomb
(07:33):
up us.
Speaker 3 (07:34):
The these military organizations, a.
Speaker 2 (07:37):
Number of the Eros or Acnams you won't have heard before,
and that's because they haven't been part of the conflict before.
So I asked Billy to explain who the Eros in
the north were and how and why are they identityfied now?
Speaker 4 (07:48):
Sure? So, the ark On Army is a kind ethnic
based armed organization. They're based on the China border, but
for the who know memr geography or kind state is
actually on the complete other side of the country. But this,
like many were like many newer armed organizations, they were
(08:08):
essentially incubated by some of the longer term armed organizations.
In this case, the Kachin Independence Army helped for the
emergence of the Arakan Army, which has really grown in
the past ten years into one of the strongest armed
stakeholders in the country. Before the coup under the On
(08:31):
Sansuchil National League for Democracy government they were in intense
fighting with the MR military and on Sansuchi strongly supported
the m R military's operations against the AA, and that
kind of built some bad blood, as you might be
might imagine, between the AA and the National League for Democracy,
(08:52):
and that bad blood has made it difficult to build
alliance across ethnic lines and with those resistance organizationations that
involve NLD folks. But the key point here is that
the AA is operating in two places, were Kind State
and in Northern Shan State on the and Kachin State
also actually it's a gay now but and they're an
(09:13):
extremely powerful armed organization, highly disciplined, highly effective, well armed.
The second group is the Ta'ang National Liberation Army. This
is a an ethnic based army in northern Shan State
that also is a relatively a newer armed organization. They
(09:36):
it's it's a pretty complex military environment in Northern Shan
State because the t n l A are often in
tension with other Shan ethnic groups that are in Shan State,
including the r c s S or the Shan State
Army South, which is competing for control in other parts
(09:56):
of Shan State. We've also seen some tension between the
t n l A and the s s p P,
which is another Northern Shan army that's closely aligned with
the wah and Chinese. So that's a that's a pretty
complex array of relationships there. But the t NLA is
also an increasingly powerful armed organization one that administer Administer's
(10:20):
territory and has also been locked in conflict with the
MEMORY military for some time. The last group is the
m n d a A the MEMR National Democratic Alliance
Army UH. This is a Ko Kong ethnic based armed
organization that for a long time controlled territory along the
(10:44):
China border. In two thousand and nine, men Online who
is now the commander in chief and the head of
the SAC. He essentially was leading commands in north in
the northeast and led operations to push the m n
d a A out of that territory and replace it
(11:05):
with a border guard force of another ethnic Ko Kong
ethnic army. And we can get back to that. But
that ethnic army became or is a criminal enterprise that's
now operating massive scam and human trafficking operations with the
support of the MR military. They're commissioned under the MEMR military,
(11:29):
but I think a key point here is that there's
it's very personal with the m n d a A
and this Border Guard Force and and Men Online, and
so this is really the m n d a A
is an organization that has been pushing for a very
long time to retake this territory and particularly this city
of Lauchai. And so that that that three constitutes the
(11:52):
Brotherhood Alliance. There's other stakeholders in this region, including the
United Waw State Army, which is the largest armed organization
in Myanmar, or non state armed organization as well, which
is very closely tied with the Chinese. I mean they
use Chinese currency, they speak Chinese, they fully administer their
(12:18):
territory and autonomously. And then the other organizations that are
relevant here is the National Democratic Alliance Army and d
a A, which is essentially you can think of it
as a closely tied with the law and the Chinese.
And then the Kachin Independence Army, which is a Kachin
ethnic based armed organization very much founded as a social
(12:42):
services I mean it's it's kind of got a different
identity from some of these other groups. It's very much
like a revolutionary organization with political intentions. Uh, there's kind
of Christian beliefs that are embedded within the organization. So yeah,
I want to say it's a highly complex actors with
different intentions and motivations, but in this particular case, they
(13:04):
came together to at least the Brotherhood Alliance came together
to launch this this coordinated attack.
Speaker 2 (13:11):
The T'ang National Liberation Army the group who received many
of the young people of Mandalay who went on to
form the Mandelaid PDF. Those young people started out as
a strikeforce within Mandlay but there are only weapons on
Molotov cocktails, and every action they took was the rest
of their whole families if they were caught by march.
A few weeks into the revolution, Montenay and others took
(13:33):
to the mountains with the Tang National Liberation Army to
learn to fight. Before the revolution, he said he had
no experience and he didn't even play fighting video games.
I asked him how it felt to be joining a
group he'd been raised to hate and how he got there.
Speaker 1 (13:48):
Before we formed Manleay perif, we started as an MSDA,
which is a Manlay four, the first training for our organizations,
and at the time we only have a sam handmade
(14:09):
weapons like Molotov, but we really don't use like handmade guns.
But the after the support of TNLLY, we we got
the automatic rifles with the help of our alliance and UH.
At first when we act as a MSTF manally special
(14:31):
Task Force, we restrict the rooms for not attaching to
the schools or hospitals or the civilians. And then after
that we start using the handmade weapons like just like Molotov.
We didn't use any handguns at the time, but after
that we trained UH and we contact with the atn
(14:55):
l E. We have we now have the automatic rifles
and then others UH missiles or something like that.
Speaker 3 (15:03):
Now.
Speaker 1 (15:04):
So when he decided to contact with the t n
l E the Nasal, what he expected were nothing else
but some few problems that about the racists because of
most of the ethnic groups, they most of them they
(15:25):
hate Bumbis people and they even called the Bambi's army.
So he was explaining that we will be having a
racist problems. But when he actually reached to the end
region UH, he found out that there is no hatred
to the Bombish people and then there was no problem
(15:48):
about the racist problems.
Speaker 3 (15:50):
Yeah, he also thought that it's because of the.
Speaker 1 (15:53):
Communit comunication between the Bambi's.
Speaker 3 (15:55):
People and the Aloan.
Speaker 1 (15:58):
Racist Uhlan people. They provide tea, leaves and the other
things to eat bambished people and then they make some
tradings and then some they do some business with barbised people,
so that there was no problem about that. But the
(16:21):
only other thing was about the weather, because of the
rough weather in the mountains, it's a very different weather
from the like Manulee region. It's very cool for the
people from the Manley region, the Manleys, Yeah, and in
(16:42):
mountains it's very cold in here. So we still having
problems about the weather problems, but now we are getting
used to it.
Speaker 3 (16:52):
And he said that he is also surprised that t.
Speaker 1 (16:56):
N l A, the AD National Division Army is wealth
all military and then they also following the code of
conduct and then the following the democracy way and then
most of the leaders from the t and LA of
the liberal ideas and then they also one we work
(17:17):
on to the young leaders.
Speaker 3 (17:19):
From the revolution for us. So see, he was surprised
about that.
Speaker 2 (17:25):
Billy told me that this same dynamic HAULD occurred all
over the country. And this is probably a good time
to remind listeners that we've covered the formation of the
PDFs and our two previous series about Memmar and if
you haven't had the time to listen to those, I
really hope you do because it'll make this one a
lot more interesting and this one probably won't make much
sense without it.
Speaker 4 (17:42):
Yeah, and I think this is really a key dynamic,
and we can come back to the conversation maybe about
day after the political dimensions of the conflict, but there's
frankly before the coup, these sorts of coordinations would be
uh like incomprehensible. I mean you'd see the Arakan Army,
(18:06):
the Kachin Independence Army, the Ta'ang National Liberation Army, all
of them have deep connections with mostly Bamar ethnic pds,
some of whom work in coordination with the National Unity Government,
some which are slightly more independent. But the this is
(18:27):
an inter ethnic collaboration that's that's very novel and demonstrates
a shift and inter ethnic and intercommunal dynamics in the
country that are is very positive in a lot of ways.
So Yeah, the t n l A. The has been
(18:49):
providing weapons and training for PDFs in Mandalay, the k
O the k I A has been providing weapons, in
training and tactical and strategic support to PDFs in Sagan
and the Arakan Army has been maybe more than any
group providing tactical UH support and weapons and training to
PDFs and b Goo Airwadi, Maguay and now more recently
(19:12):
in Sigai in so really the the Burman heartland of
the country. So yeah, all of these ethnic minority based
armed organizations are now collaborating, sharing resources and knowledge with UH,
with with Bamar ethnic PDFs. There's a so that I
(19:34):
think the main question here is like, what does this
mean for intercommunal relations? What does this mean for the
future UH of you know, of the country? Is there?
Does this indicate there's potential for greater national solidarity in
the absence of the MEMR military, fracturing communities and so on.
But yeah, it's it's a it's a radical shift in
(19:55):
those relationships.
Speaker 2 (19:56):
But he also shared that as we've heard from every
single PDF fighter we've talked to, their time alongside the
eros Is comrades in arms has changed the way they
see ethnicity in the future of their country.
Speaker 4 (20:07):
And I think this is also manifesting a lot of
the research that my organization, the US Institute of Peace,
has been doing at the among the general public. I mean,
we've done three different studies over the past year to
assess intercremual relations in the post couperiod and to kind
of see how relations have shifted, because there's a really
(20:27):
dominant narrative that MEMR is kind of irreconcilably fractured and
that the communities are loyal to their ethnic identities not
their national identities and so on, and frankly, all of
our research has has pointed to a similar trend, which
(20:48):
is one, inter ethnic relations are considerably better. There's a
there's greater solidarity. There's actually one of the the experimental
research studies that we did found that national identity, as
in being from MEMMR was more was more important to
(21:08):
respond ince than ethnic identity, which totally cuts against narratives
about MEMMAR. And Yeah, I mean, I think there's been
considerable gains and inter ethnic relations, and it's you know,
it's hard to determine, you know, the causal linkages here,
whether you know, the improved inter ethnic relations are spurring
(21:31):
greater military collaboration and collaboration on humanitarian assistants and governance
and so on. But it does feel like there's a
major shift and social dynamics in addition to these kind
of military shifts that are taking place. I mean, I
think that the research we've done has found there to
be sort of extremist national perspectives still remain, but that
(21:58):
they're the likelihood of them escalating to violence is reduced,
in large part because the public's vulnerability to UH incitement
or to a highly devisive political speech. Most of what
came from Melmar military run troll farms is is much
I mean, there's much more resilience to those that that
(22:20):
form of political violence. So, you know, I think there's
still a lot of work obviously to do to build
intercommunal cohesion and understanding, but that the likelihood you know,
for example, in a post sac world that you will
be you know, see mass intercommunal violence, it seems much
(22:42):
lower than a lot of people are presuming that it
would be that the that the actual horizontal relationships across
communities are not are not as bad as many presume. Actually,
one of the surveys that we did found that Memar's
intercommunal relations are no worse than countries with much lower
levels of violence, which is kind of an indication of
(23:04):
the fact that it's really vertical dynamics like violent political speech,
highly exclusionary governance structures that are driving intercommunal violence, and
so that those on that dimension at least that the
person to person intercommunal relation or relationships. I think there's
a lot to be a lot of positive narratives there.
Speaker 2 (23:29):
Talking of positive narratives, here's some positive narratives about products
and or services. Another aspect of the conflict that's played
out in Operation ten twenty seven, it's the role of
China and the massive crime empires that the junta has
(23:51):
facilitated along the country's borders in recent years. I asked
Billy to explain some of those.
Speaker 4 (23:56):
So this has become the major political dynamic between China
and the SAC over the past year. Frankly, I mean,
it's essentially what we've seen is the emergence of these
massive scam operations that use foreign labor that's trafficked into
MEMR into areas controlled primarily by MEMMR military commissioned border
(24:22):
guard forces. So these are commissioned under the MEMR military,
which is a very key point in most cases, and
they are running scam operations at a global level that
are scamming people using a scheme called pig butchering, which
is long term relationship building. And then you're yeah, theft
(24:44):
at a large scale. This is like, these are sizable
losses from individuals. So last year, for example, to give
you a sense of that scale, China lost twenty billion
dollars to these scam operations. Twenty billion, Yeah, you know,
of states lost two billion dollars on scam operations emerging
from Menmar. I mean, the scale of this is wild.
(25:07):
I mean there's more than there's more than one hundred
thousand people being held in scam zones in Meanmar from
forty six different countries. I mean, it's a it's this
is a total global operation because I mean this emerged
actually before COVID, I mean in sia Hanookville, Cambodia and
other places where there's you know, rule of laws is dubious.
(25:29):
They have the initiated kind of casino operations which are
illegal in China and really targeting Chinese public. And during COVID,
when China a lot of Chinese nationals were forced back
to mainland China. These criminal enterprises were short on labor,
and so they shifted their approach. I mean they shifted
(25:50):
to trafficking people into their zones and then operating at
a global scale finding labor from around the world, you know,
using not not low skilled labor. I mean this is
these are high skilled kind of middle class workers seeking
employment in the tech industry or some other scheme that
(26:11):
they you know, eventually they're you know, held at gunpoint
and forced to scam their co nationals. So that's a
little bit of background. So this is happening in Ko
Kong along the Chinese border, also in the Wa territories
and in the n d a A territories. The largest
areas are actually on the Thai Burma border with the
(26:34):
Kren Border Guard Force and affiliated criminal organizations. So essentially,
over the past year, the Chinese have have noticed not
only the financial losses but the potential for social instability
because as youth unemployment has grown in China, you know,
(26:55):
these young people are seeking new employment opportunities, crossing the
border and memr for high paying tech jobs and then
being held at gunpoints. So you have you know, mothers
on social media saying I haven't seen my son in
three weeks and you know he's being held in a
scam operation. So you know this is this is dileitarious
at two levels. You know, the financial scam losses and
(27:18):
the trafficking, and it's all being run by border guard
forces that are commissioned by the Melamar military. And yet
you see countries around the world, including China, going to
the Malamar military and saying, please shut this down. And
of course the Malmur military has no intention to shut
this down because these these scam operations are financing the
(27:41):
border guard forces that are their key weapon against the resistance.
So they need the border guard forces and so they
will never shut down the scam operations. And so what
what ensued was essentially earlier this year, I mean, the
Chinese came to the Malmour military and said, we will
support you at every level. We will prop you up,
(28:02):
provide you weapons, to provide you assistance if you can
demonstrate the capacity to govern, the capacity to provide stability
on our border, the capacity to provide to allow us
to pursue our economic interests. And the SAC has completely
failed this test. Scam operations have exploded China's economic interests.
(28:24):
The Chupu, especially economic zone remains in a impact assessment phase.
The lepid on copper mind is non functional, the Mitzo
dam is non functional. They're just not getting out of
the SAC what they wanted, and so there was a
meaningful shift recently, it appears, and I think by all
(28:47):
indicators that we can see the Chinese Greenlit Operation ten
twenty seven that they at least did not stand in
their way, and you'll see from the then Daa, I
mean they really were the leaders of the operation that
in the statements that they issued about the operation itself
(29:08):
and when they articulated their objectives, the first objective was
to shut down scam operations. I mean you can see
that this is they're speaking to a Chinese public and
the government indicating that we're a responsible, good faith actor
that will shut down these enterprises that are trafficking your
(29:29):
citizens and scamming the public out of billions of dollars.
So this has become a really dominant dynamic in the
relationship between the Chinese and the SAC, and it's it
leads to a really weakened position for the SAC if
(29:50):
they're not being propped up in the way that they
have been for so long by by the Chinese. So
we'll have to see how this kind of unfolds, but
it's not looking good for the military.
Speaker 2 (30:02):
When we do see how this unfolds, it'll be people
like the mandl a PDF who we see leading the
charge for a new and democratic MIANDMA. We don't exactly
know what that means, but I asked them if the
weapons see is in operation ten twenty seven, we'll allow
them to arm more fighters and get there faster.
Speaker 1 (30:20):
We are also now recruiting a new recruits, but we
will we will have to recruit until the genter is gone.
And we also need more soldiers to form up the
better army than the gener after we want, even after
(30:41):
we want, we are going to need some more human
resources to form up the better army than the male army,
you know. And for the arms and ammunitions, we got
a lot of arm and ammunitions from the male like AMI,
but we it's they use a different type of the ammunitions.
(31:07):
And then because we, for example, we use like A
K types, we have the different so it is not
very possible to arm the better weapons from the the
Maylie amy. We only used some of the weapons, like
(31:28):
for the artillery or something like that, but that's only
a few we got from them. What we really need
is about the better artillery or S A M or
something like that for the air strips. So yeah, it's
not very usedful for us from the anthem ammunition we
(31:51):
got from the Male Army. He said that the main
points in the arm revolution is it's about two cature
the important points, not to catcha all the CDs or
something like that, like to catchure the enemy sec quotas
or the important places. We are going to need more plants,
(32:17):
and then he say that he's unclear about that.
Speaker 2 (32:21):
I asked Billy what he thought we could expect in
the new Mianma. I see points out here. Everything every
circled analysts has said has been proven wrong by the revolution.
They've exceeded the wildest expectations of experts in London and Washington, DC,
and where they go next is really up to them.
Speaker 4 (32:38):
Good question, and frankly, I don't have a lot of
information about that. I mean, you've seen pictures over the
past twelve days of the as the resistance has taken
one hundred and fifty posts. They've definitely captured a lot
of heavy munitions and artillery, but yeah, I'm not sure
service to air capabilities. I mean, I think the the
(33:00):
fact that the Menommur military is not able to push
the resistance out of urban areas. I mean, this is
the first time really that the resistance moved into urban
areas and held them, including into guy and I mean
Colon has been they're holding it and so I mean
that seems to be an indication to me that the
(33:21):
ESSAYCS capability is weakening. I mean, yeah, their their access
to foreign currency and to purchase weapons is highly constrained now.
I mean their primary providers Russia and China, you know,
ones fighting their own war and the other is kind
of is a little bit more skeptical as to whether
(33:41):
they deserve their support. I mean they just last week
the US initiated new sanctions on the Meanoma oil and
Gas enterprise. They provided half a billion dollars in revenue
for the junta per year. Yeah, that's a major that's
a major issue for them accessing US dollars, which they
need to buy weapons. I mean, the Ties can no
(34:06):
longer pay the Memoir military and USD and the memor
military doesn't want bought, so they're literally negotiating barter agreements
where they you know, sell gas for material goods. But
now you have the Resistance controlling you know, part of
cocker Rig on the Asia Highway into Thailand. I mean,
(34:27):
they control the borders or the starting to in a
way they hadn't before, So even this sort of bartering
or material trade is less viable. So yeah, I mean,
I think they're just really asset constrained. And it does
I mean, just the fact that they haven't been able
to retake these critical logistic ups. I mean, the border
(34:51):
crossings that the Resistance has have controlled constitute forty percent
of the of the of the overland trade between China
and memor It's like, you know, it's like four billion
dollars in value that's being you know, that tax loss
for the SAC it's considerable. It's considerable losses there as well.
And how long they can really hold out and maintain
(35:12):
their air assets is really questionable, particularly since they've had
to massively diversify their air asset purchase, which really makes
it more complex to service points. And so yeah, I mean,
I think I'm not sure that the Resistance has much
more capacity in service to air or air defense, but
(35:34):
it does seem like the SACS capacity to inflict atrocities
in this way has also been constrained.
Speaker 2 (35:40):
Yeah, it sort of flies in the face of every
sort of like analytical idea about the assets that you
need to have in order to be successful in one
of these Like they've they've really proved a lot of
people wrong in a really impressive way. I know, you
have to go I want to ask one more real
quick the did these towns did the SAC pull out
(36:04):
of the towns or did they like fight house to
house or like how did they did it?
Speaker 4 (36:10):
Very across Well, the I mean the SAC was you know,
in their barracks themselves. I mean in these towns, it's
a national uprising. The public is you know, opposed to
the presence. This is an occupying force, and so yeah,
it's just moving in and capturing military posts. And as
(36:32):
one person resistance fighter indicated, essentially you fire your gun
in the air and they lay down their weapons, which
is more you know, an indication of of where the
military stands and the support that these these highly isolated
I mean, this is a fractured light infantry force that's
dispersed at posts all over the country, and you know
(36:55):
they're resupplying from the Northwest Command in monuoas to town
within thirty minutes drive by helicopter because they can't they
can't move, so there's just not logistics support to these posts.
And so yeah, you've got folks in there that just
the will to fight is pretty small. Morale is shrinking
(37:18):
from a very low base, and so I think there
was the The general pattern is just resistance taking military
barracks and posts rather than having to go house to house.
I mean there's villages in towns where there's these groups
called pew Sawtee that are like military aligned militias, but yeah,
(37:40):
that's not really you know, a nationwide fighting force, and
it's in most cases it really is just the resistance
capturing posts and pushing out a military personnel. And I
mean there was a they're also using drones to a
high degree of effectiveness. They recently killed a colonel who
(38:01):
was on he was about to be become a brigadier general,
the highest ranking person who have been killed in battle
from the Memora military through a drone strike in northern
Shun State, I believe for kit Chen and I think that, yeah,
the resistance drone capabilities have also increased considerably. And this
(38:24):
is also an area where you see NUG collaborating a
lot with the arrows. So yeah, it's it's it's just yeah,
it's a barracks, you know, menmoial military personnel and they
just in many cases just lay down their arms because
it's just morale so low, and the probability of them
(38:46):
to be able to fend off indefinitely is when they
have the public against them and a resistance movement against them.
It's just really a challenge ex set of conditions for them.
Speaker 2 (39:06):
We don't know exactly what the future of Myanmar is,
but it took an interesting turn in the last few
weeks with the k and DF the Saquareni National Defense
Force fifth Battalion issuing a statement of solidarity with the
people of Rejava and the people of Java in the
form of the YPG and the YPGA, their defense units
of men and women respectively, recording a response a great
(39:28):
risk during the ongoing grown campaign expressing their solidarity and
support for the revolutionary people of Myanmar, something will cover
in greater detail on another episode, but it's yet another
illustration of how the revolutionary people of Myanmar have continued
to defy everyone's expectations about how and where they will
go next, and how they've managed to dream up a
(39:49):
vision for a more equal and just future even as
they face the injustice and inequality of fighting a war
the world doesn't seem to care about without a single
dollar of international military little support, and then strongly worded
letters from the UN At sporadic intervals. As we come
to the end of the episode, I asked Sam Montine
if he had anything else he would like to share
(40:11):
with our listeners.
Speaker 3 (40:12):
Okay, he said that.
Speaker 1 (40:15):
If he is able to talk, he wants them to
know that we are not the white people. We most
of them are educated, and we are only plying for
the democracy. But in some international news there will be
(40:37):
some news that, like PDF the revolution forces are killing
each other or something like that, but it's like not
fully correct. Maybe some a few will be doing that,
but most of us are not doing that way.
Speaker 3 (40:57):
It's just a propagonna from.
Speaker 1 (40:58):
The like me.
Speaker 3 (41:00):
You know. We also say that we are no more
expecting for the help from the other countries.
Speaker 1 (41:10):
We will be fighting our own and then with our
spiritatively in And he also wanted to say that to
the US government or the King of England or the
other countries authorities that we are not wild ones. We
(41:31):
are educated, and then we are just fighting to get
the democracy back to our country.
Speaker 3 (41:38):
He's using a little.
Speaker 1 (41:39):
Bit from wards, you know, say that if other governments
are not helping us because they can't get any benefits
from helping us, even if they don't want to help us,
just don't look as like we are the wild ones.
We will be trying to get the level of the
(42:04):
other countries. We will always be trying for that. If
you have any chance to speak out in a seminar
or the workshops or any other things or any meetings,
he wants you to tell the news about killings each
(42:24):
other of our revolution forces is just a propagunnas of sac.
If there is no more Sac, there would be no
issues like the anymore. Most of some issues are just
because of Sac and then they spread in some rumors
(42:45):
about that and then take news. You know, if you
guys can come and visit us, and then you can
see how we treat people, and then how we respect
the civilians, and then how we follow a lot of
context in person.
Speaker 2 (43:02):
If you want to follow the mate APDF, you can
search them on Facebook. Where they post regular updates. We'll
include the link in the show notes for you. If
you want to hear more from Billy, I'll let him
tell you how sure.
Speaker 4 (43:13):
Yeah, I mean, we put out a paper at us
IP dot org yesterday on the relationship between the scam
operations and the the the conflict dynamics. I'm putting one
out probably next week on the day after quote unquote dynamics,
summarizing some of our research. I'm on Twitter at b
(43:35):
I L L E E the number four, the letter D,
so you can try to stay up on some of
the conflict dynamics there. But yeah, the USIP website where
we published most of our most of our stuff.
Speaker 2 (43:48):
In closing, I just want to share how much hope
I found in the conflict in the MR in recent weeks.
At a time when the world seems so full of cruelty,
it's inspiring to see people relatively unified, committed to respecting
life and civilians and succeeding against all the odds. This
doesn't mean they don't need help. They do desperately, and
(44:09):
I hope that as people continue to advocate to civilians
in Gaza, they can include civilians and revolutionaries from Meandmark
in their demands going forward, It could happen here as
a production of cool Zone Media.
Speaker 1 (44:24):
For more podcasts from cool Zone Media, visit our website
cool zonemedia dot com or check us out on the
iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to podcasts.
You can find sources for It could Happen Here, updated
monthly at cool zonemedia dot com slash sources. Thanks for listening.
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Robert Evans
Garrison Davis
James Stout
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