September 15, 2023 • 63 mins
With Yevgeny Prigozhin and the rest of Wagner leadership apparently confirmed dead in a suspicious airplane explosion north of Moscow, the merc army Wagner finds itself adrift. So what happens next? In tonight's episode, Ben, Matt and Noel dive into the speculation, analysis, and numerous conspiracies surrounding the "complicated fate" of this notorious PMC... and why what happens next will affect people across the planet.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
From UFOs to psychic powers and government conspiracies. History is
riddled with unexplained events. You can turn back now or
learn this stuff they don't want you to know. A
production of iHeartRadio.
Speaker 2 (00:24):
Hello, welcome back to the show. My name is Matt,
my name is Noah.
Speaker 3 (00:27):
They call me Ben.
Speaker 4 (00:28):
We're joined as always with our super producer Paul mission
controlled decads. Most importantly, you are you, You are here,
and that makes this the stuff they don't want you
to know. Tonight, we are returning to a story that's
been on quite a few people's minds, quite often.
Speaker 5 (00:46):
Quite recently.
Speaker 4 (00:47):
Several weeks ago, a guy that you've probably heard about,
Yevgeny Pregoshan, the leader of a group called Wagner, appears
to have died in an airplane explosion north of Moscow.
You can see all sorts of analysis about it, as
well as a chilling announcement by Vladimir Putin, still President
of Russia. As a matter of fact, Can we play
(01:08):
the video? Can we play a clip of this? Have
you guys heard this guy?
Speaker 2 (01:11):
Let's do it?
Speaker 3 (01:14):
Dona snatch.
Speaker 6 (01:23):
Yeah, a man with a complex destiny. That's interesting, yes,
so Ben, just just a very little clarity around the clip.
Is this post attempted coup? Mm hmm, okay, yeah.
Speaker 4 (01:42):
This is after after the unfortunate airplane expedition.
Speaker 3 (01:47):
You know.
Speaker 4 (01:48):
Uh, Vladimir Putin, current President of Russia, comes out and says,
I've known you've got any progosion for a very long time,
since the nineties. He was a man with a complicated fate.
He made serious mistakes in life. It's kind of cold
as eulogies go.
Speaker 6 (02:04):
I think that's why I was confused, because it didn't
even seem like a eulogy. And it also you off off, Mike,
You skipped through a whole bunch of other stuff before
you even got to the slight mention.
Speaker 3 (02:16):
So it's like really kind of a footnote. Very cold.
Speaker 2 (02:20):
Yeah, but guys, what do you say about a guy
that just tried to leave a mutiny against you? When
that person dies? I liked him. You know, what do
you say this jerk tried to overthrow my government? You know?
I mean, I don't know.
Speaker 4 (02:36):
Yeah, it's a good question. Earlier, we'd speculated on the
many rumors surrounding the alleged death or various death theories
of Pregosian and his top men, at Wagner, But tonight's
episode is asking what happens next the king is dead,
what happens to the kingdom? Here are the facts. We
(02:59):
need to give a quick recap on Wagner in general,
because a lot of times, I think people in the
West hear the phrase Wagner and they think like it's
a battalion of the Russian military or something like that.
But it's a lot closer to Blackwater.
Speaker 6 (03:18):
Yeah, I mean, you know, it's something that people I
think in the West weren't hearing about at all for
many years. I mean, it's really acted as kind of,
like I think, been the term that you've used in
the past, as sort of shadow military, you know, for
Russia for a lot longer than this conflict has been
at play, and these most recent kind of hiccups in
(03:41):
the relationship.
Speaker 4 (03:41):
Let's just say, right, agreed, Yeah, Wagner is a private
military contractor or PMC, and like you said, Noel, for
a long time it was a de facto shadow army
for Russia, similar to for instance, Blackwater. Oh wait, Matt, sorry,
is it z X Oh wait is it ACADEMI?
Speaker 3 (04:05):
Oh?
Speaker 4 (04:05):
Hang on, is it constell Us?
Speaker 2 (04:08):
I don't know. It's all of those. Yeah, yeah, but
private military contractors became famous or at least a known thing.
That phrase became a known thing in the US during
the Afghanistan War or whatever they want to call it,
the war in Afghanistan, when we invaded Afghanistan as a
(04:29):
country United States. We learned about Blackwater. Then we learned about,
you know, operations in Iraq and other countries that maybe
we shouldn't have been operating in where private military contractors
went in and did some operations again on other countries
soil while they were operating in a place where the
US military is officially operating. Just some weird stuff has happened.
(04:52):
We also saw stuff like that back during the Vietnam War,
right when Laos and other countries were you know, there
was activity going on when it really wasn't supposed to be.
What I'm saying is that is what you can kind
of do with a private military military contractor like the
Wagner Group. You can have them do some things that
(05:15):
are maybe they it would be an international incident if
let's say the official Russian Army was taking part in
actions in parts of Africa.
Speaker 4 (05:25):
One hundred percent ah Man so well put uh. Wagner
is also common misconception in the West. Wagner is also
a group of private entities operating under one name. It's
kind of like, you know, the Portuguese Man of War
is essentially a colony of independent, very small organisms functioning
(05:48):
as a super colony that appears like one organism from
far away.
Speaker 6 (05:52):
Yeah, sort of like the human The human being is
a combination, complex, combination of cells and bios, all of
that good stuff. This one just happens to be one
that in this particular case is very specifically serving the
interests of Russia up until you know, the whole coup thing,
(06:14):
which was weird, and I think the reason all of
this still perplexes me where I'm like, you know, we
we even conjectured i think with Jake Hanrahan where it
was sort of like could it have been a manufactured thing?
Speaker 3 (06:27):
You know, there's so many questions around that it was
just real weird.
Speaker 6 (06:32):
And then this guy's plane gets well, we don't know
if it was shot. We didn't, we don't have evidence
of that, I don't believe yet, but falls out of
the sky. And another thing we talked about with Jake
Hanrahan was the the seeming issues with gravity that opponents
of Vladimir Putin tend to face.
Speaker 4 (06:52):
Yeah, they faced them head on.
Speaker 6 (06:54):
Usually to me, when this news popped, I think probably
to all of us, we were much more inclined to
be like, oh, yeah, that wasn't manufactured. That guy was
doing a thing and Putin popped him out of the sky,
or did he.
Speaker 3 (07:10):
We'll get into some of that too.
Speaker 6 (07:13):
God, this stuff is as greasy as bubbles from Trailer
Park Boys would say.
Speaker 4 (07:20):
Love it, love it. Also check out the sea shanty
that Trailer Park Boys did. It's all about cats. It's
very good. So, like we talked about in our previous
primer episode on Wagner, before all this went down, before
these conspiracies came to fruition, these Wagner guys, they get
(07:42):
into all kinds of high jinks.
Speaker 5 (07:44):
You know.
Speaker 4 (07:44):
They got international notoriety in the Dombas War back in
twenty fourteen, twenty fifteen, and since that point they have
been involved in multiple coups and civil wars across the
continent of Africa. In the Middle East. They fought in Sudan, Mali, Mozambique.
And what they're doing in those situations is exerting Russian
(08:08):
influence and interest by proxy, they are resource extracting and
force projecting. As we established earlier, Wagner in its heyday
got a percentage a vig of every resource when they
interfered or when they, excuse me, interceded in the country's activity.
Speaker 2 (08:30):
Oh, exactly, they're getting their cut. Just to clarify there,
the dawnbas War, if you're not aware, is the conflict
between Russia and Ukraine that started back in twenty fourteen,
as you said, Ben, and that is really one of
the things that has just kind of continued when there
were separatists inside Ukraine that were you at least according
(08:52):
to the best knowledge that we have, they're Russian supported
operating inside Ukraine, and then large conflicts started there and
then the Wagner came in to kind of fill in
what a military would.
Speaker 4 (09:02):
Do one hundred percent. Yeah, And Wagner was also up
until quite recently a cult of personality similar to Heart
of Darkness or Apocalypse.
Speaker 3 (09:15):
Now.
Speaker 4 (09:16):
The followers of Pragosion treated him like a real life
Colonel Kurtz or like Judge Holden, probably one of the
best villains in American literature. Check out Blood Meridian by
Kormack McCarthy. They treated Progosion as though he could do
no wrong, and internal tensions arose. The Russian Ministry of
(09:39):
Defense was beefed up with Progosion for a long time.
Eventually it boiled over. And what you were referencing earlier,
Nol Wagner marched on Moscow unsuccessfully and for a short time,
for like twenty three hours around June twenty fourth, twenty
(09:59):
twenty three. And if you look back now, analysts will
overwhelmingly say by hook or by crook, this is what
led to Pregosians aircraft accident.
Speaker 2 (10:12):
Yeah, and as we said before, allegedly it began because
of Wagner group what I don't know what you'd call it?
A group of Wagners. We're allegedly attacked by the Russian military,
either accidentally or purposefully, which then led them to march
on Moscow. So just just who knows exactly what happened?
(10:37):
Those are the reports we have access to.
Speaker 4 (10:39):
You know, it makes me think of I was just
listening to our earlier episode on controlling the future via
controlling the past, and Matt, you brought up this excellent
group name for historians.
Speaker 3 (10:55):
What was it?
Speaker 4 (10:55):
No, it was an argumentation of his.
Speaker 2 (10:58):
My idea that was the author.
Speaker 3 (10:59):
I yeah, no, it's good.
Speaker 6 (11:02):
I mean again, it's all about perspective. And as we've
started to see much more and more in these days,
it starts to feel a little more nineteen eighty fourish
by the day in terms of like what is objective
truth that at some point leaves perspective behind entirely and
it becomes just like which fabrication have you decided to
throw your lot in with?
Speaker 2 (11:23):
You know?
Speaker 4 (11:24):
So maybe on that note, maybe you can help us out.
Fellow conspiracy realist, what is the correct group name for
some Wagner boys? Is it a mutiny of Wagner's? I
don't think old VP would like that one. Let's give
you the official story of what happens. According to Russia's
(11:47):
Emergency Ministry, Progolsion and company die in an airplane crash
on August twenty third, twenty twenty three. We did a
strange news piece immediately after. He was in a relatively
small plane and rooted from Moscow to Saint Petersburg. There
were only ten people on the plane, seven Wagner, two pilots,
(12:10):
one flight attendant. Because there's always an innocent bystander.
Speaker 3 (12:14):
And like right off the rip.
Speaker 6 (12:15):
We even have you know, opposing versions of the stories
to that, some people saying it didn't make sense for
him to be back on the way to Saint Petersburg.
His interests were in Africa, you know, he like and
there was I believe an incident in the past where
a plane went down that he was on the manifest for.
But then he turned up, you know, all well and
good later. So this is like, these are tactics. There's
(12:38):
reason to disbelieve the official narrative. Not to mention the
fact that we're never going to see an independent investigation
of any of this stuff. You know, folks with the
Russian government have said that they've done DNA right, DNA
samples or whatever kind of irol.
Speaker 2 (12:57):
You know, well, it's so weird because we're going to
get into this guys. But just to point out there
you may have seen as you're listening to this, if
you're searching through there are reports of him showing up
other places in the world alive today as we're recording
this episode. So just like Tupac, it's so similar. Yeah,
(13:18):
let's keep going.
Speaker 6 (13:18):
I guess the point here just to put like a
little bow on it. I guess is that when you
have a government that is inherently siloing information, just by
their very nature, it makes these kinds of conspiracy theories.
Speaker 3 (13:32):
It gives them a lot more air, a lot more
room to grow and breathe. Yeah, I think, yeah, agreed.
Speaker 4 (13:39):
Our So we saw that everyone in the world, every
credible source in the world, assumed this aircraft accident was
not a random malfunction. Initial reports claimed that the plane
was shot down by Russian air defense, and that came
from Wagner itself. Western intelligence later looked at this and said,
(14:03):
they probably weren't shot down because we sort of, you know,
follow the missiles. They said, there was an explosion aboard
the craft, and to your point, Pregosion is a sneaky,
sneaky boy, or he was. He is a little rascal.
So a lot of credible analysts thought it would be
(14:24):
possible or not outside of the realm of possibility, that
he had faked his own demise, and later the Russian
government did appear to confirm his death through genetic testing.
They claimed that according to their forensics, the identities of
all ten people on the craft had been established and
all ten of them corresponded to someone published on the
(14:47):
flight manifest So the next question is who ordered this explosion?
We mentioned this earlier.
Speaker 3 (14:54):
I love this.
Speaker 4 (14:54):
I think you should leave now. A hot dog car
crashes through the store. There's a guy in a hot
dog costume saying it could be any one of us.
Speaker 2 (15:03):
We gotta find out who did this.
Speaker 6 (15:05):
So well, you know, and and to your point, been
with that clip that you play where Putin just kind
of casually drops a tiny little mention of this incident.
There are some in the media, you know, or analysts,
I guess, especially because there's quite a few Russian journalists
who maybe don't quite toe the party line, who have
(15:26):
actually been exiled and like live in Germany.
Speaker 3 (15:28):
And I'm kind of so I should have written down
the names.
Speaker 6 (15:30):
But I saw some interviews with a few of them
who were saying that is an example of Putin basically
saying yeah I did this without saying yeah I did this,
and that it's his way of like he does this
kind of stuff all the time while not openly acknowledging
it or admitting it. He kind of wants people to
think he did it, even if maybe they didn't find
his body it's in his best interest to think that
(15:52):
they for people to think that he did it.
Speaker 2 (15:54):
Yeah, anything that makes him scarier, right, not only to
the to his enemies, but to people who have to
follow orders from him, that's probably a great thing for him,
or at least he perceives it as such. And you know, oh, man,
I had a whole point about this, Oh, Pregosian didn't
just have enemies in Russia, even though he was pretty
(16:14):
much fighting for them. He had enemies, you know, in
Ukraine and all of the people who are allied to
defend Ukraine now all the NATO countries in the US.
Speaker 6 (16:25):
So, I mean, a soldier of fortune is not someone
who's exactly known for their you know, stand up attitude
and then like and steadfastness. You know, there's someone who
will basically work for whoever is the highest bidder in
exchange for cash, capital assets. You know, I mean, this
is not someone that cares about making friends.
Speaker 3 (16:45):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (16:46):
Also, sof doesn't have a very long shelf life, you
know what I mean. So it's like, right now, the
current running theories for the demise of Progosion are a
direct order from Latimir Putin. Possible third party leveraging the chaos.
To your point, Matt, this would be ah, this would
(17:09):
be an opportunity or an act by one of Bragosian's many,
many internal enemies. The thing that gallows humor here, the
thing that is amazing and cracks me up right now,
is that absolutely no one is pretending it was an accident.
Everyone is in who done it mode automatically.
Speaker 6 (17:30):
There's no way the time, it just doesn't know, there's
no But also not to mention, and I can't remember
if we mentioned this quite yet. Everybody else that was
on that plane, besides the unfortunate presence of the flight attendant,
they were all high ups in the organization too, So
it was like a kind of a one shot kill
for like some serious muscle in terms of leadership in Wagner.
Speaker 2 (17:54):
But this is why it's the perfect thing, guys, because
it is it is plausible that a plane crashes. That happens.
Planes crash, they do, small private planes do crash.
Speaker 6 (18:07):
Coincidences, though, man, they're never they're never coincidences.
Speaker 2 (18:12):
I know, but that but that's the the messed up
perfect thing. What are we going to do about it?
What is anybody gonna do about it? Planes crash man,
what are you going to do?
Speaker 3 (18:21):
Yeah, I believe you. Know.
Speaker 6 (18:24):
They were saying it was too high to have been
shot down by like a shoulder mounted weapon of some kind,
like a like a rocket launcher or something. It could
have been what you were saying, been some kind of
anti aircraft situation, But I think the prevailing theory might
be that it.
Speaker 3 (18:37):
Was some sort of device on the plane itself.
Speaker 2 (18:40):
Right.
Speaker 4 (18:40):
Yeah, the West is thinking on board explosive sabotage, right,
which means the timer was either activated in the air,
remotely activated, or the time the clock started ticking around
left off, all three of which are plausible, or we
(19:01):
got ourselves a gremlin situation.
Speaker 2 (19:03):
Well, maybe could have been a gremlin on the plane.
But do you guys remember back in April in Strange
News we talked about a Russian vlagger that was killed
while in a wasn't it a Wagner bar or something,
and a woman brought in an explosive device, edit it
(19:24):
to the guy and it ended up exploding and killing him.
Speaker 3 (19:27):
Mm hmmm.
Speaker 2 (19:28):
That was in Saint Petersburg.
Speaker 4 (19:29):
Well, no one's gonna accuse human forces of creativity nor originality,
but the like this is where we're at, you know,
and that's an excellent precedent to set there, Matt. There
you have it, folks. The head of an enormously dangerous,
at times rogue mercenary military force just left the big
(19:50):
chess board. But all the soldiers remain. After the leader's demise,
what happens to them, you know, what will become of
Russi Army. It's kind of like asking what happens to
Coca Cola when all the people with the secret recipe
ride the same plane and die. We're gonna pause for
a word from our sponsors and then we'll dive in.
Speaker 3 (20:18):
Here's where it gets crazy.
Speaker 4 (20:20):
Yes, the Wagner folks, the name brand might change, but
they're still going to be around. Armies are a lot
like a snowball, a lot like an avalanche. There's an inertia.
Speaker 3 (20:33):
Right.
Speaker 4 (20:33):
Once something gets going, it is incredibly difficult to stop it.
You can change the name, right, Oh no, now we're Constellis.
We're so different, Now we're Infinity whatever. But you can
cut off the head, you can fire or kill the leadership.
You can make all sorts of you know, little paperwork
laws restricting saying the name. But you cannot unteach the skills.
(20:58):
You cannot remove the experience. It is incredibly difficult, virtually
impossible to keep an eye on every small group or
loan operator that sets up shop afterwards.
Speaker 2 (21:11):
Dude, I was just reading about again the coups in Africa,
and we talked about that recently, and just about the
splitting of militaries in several African countries. I think it
was Niger I want to say, yeah, it was specifically
I was reading about. Oh, I don't think it was,
(21:32):
but it was a it was a recent coup where
it was two factions of the military itself that split apart,
and there were two leaders. One of them is running
like a special forces kind of group and then the
other one is the official you know, military of the
country's leader, and they are the two factions that are
fighting each other. And so it just it's reminded me
(21:53):
of that bend where as you're saying, like, once you
once you create a military group that is cohesive and together,
there it is gonna stick around.
Speaker 4 (22:02):
Yeah, I mean you can't. You can't unteach goria tactics,
you know what I mean, people are gonna remember it.
Uh And and Matt to your point, I I need
to bone up on this. It could be Niger, it
could be uh Mali, it could be a number of
other countries. It's pretty pretty deep water at this point.
Speaker 2 (22:24):
There were so many Oh maybe it was Chad, I
can't remember.
Speaker 3 (22:28):
It's always chad Man. There's Chad's chadding around.
Speaker 4 (22:32):
There's there's also a strong sense to this point that
Vladimir Putin, the Putin administration wants some version of Wagner,
indeed needs some version of Wagner. We have to remember
they exist to give the Russian state plausible deniability. The
need for that does not dissipate just because seven guys
(22:56):
are dead.
Speaker 6 (22:57):
Well, but it does give you a vacuum that you
can then fill yourself with your handpicked successors. Because while
it might not be an extension, well, it is an
extension of the government. Why it might not be a
direct wing of the government or branch, there's influence there.
There's got to be friendlies within the organization, you know.
And maybe this is just Putin rooting out the folks
(23:20):
that were starting to kind of buck on him a
little bit. And now he's got the ability to insert
the people into the situation that he wants to make
them back to being his little pet army again quite possibly.
Speaker 4 (23:31):
You know that's I'm glad you're bringing that up, because
now there are several options on the table. One Russia
attempts to completely dismantle Wagner. It's possible in a legal sense,
it's far less likely in practice, to your point that,
given Wagner's entrenched established rules in the African theater. And
(23:53):
then the second one Russia attempts to co opt to
digest Wagner. Right, let's get rid of the guys who
are being a little too loud, and let's absorb the
rest of the operation in the Ministry of Defense. And
this was something that Progulsion was fighting for quite some time.
One of his big internal rivals was a guy named
(24:14):
Sergi Shoigu, who is or Shoiku we are not native
Russian speakers. He was He's the big guy, the Grand
Puba of the Defense Ministry or Ministry of Defense. And
those guys hated each other because they were always trying.
They were always like pissing on each other's fire hydrants. Basically,
it's not what fire hydrants are for. You know, They're
(24:36):
related to liquid one way or the other.
Speaker 3 (24:38):
They're either getting his daughter, they're shooting stuff out. No,
it's true. Isn't that weird?
Speaker 6 (24:42):
Though you think about it, like why is that? Never mind,
we can conversation for another day.
Speaker 4 (24:48):
So they're mainly their main use now is to establish
whether or not you are a robot online. I think
just recones that wheels.
Speaker 3 (24:57):
And motorcycles or whatever. Doors.
Speaker 4 (25:01):
Yeah, but there's a there's a third option, which I
think would be ideal for the Kremlin. It's to keep
Wagner overall what you can save of it as the
same thing like get new leadership.
Speaker 6 (25:16):
Oh yeah, by the way, Ben, it just occurred to
me if there were a Gremlin play, it would be
a Kremlin Gremlin perfect.
Speaker 3 (25:23):
I'm just perfect.
Speaker 2 (25:25):
I can't even know.
Speaker 3 (25:27):
You have to we agree.
Speaker 4 (25:31):
We agreed to yes and each other a long time ago.
Speaker 2 (25:34):
You're right, you're right, Bye, bad bye, bad dude.
Speaker 6 (25:36):
Really quickly, I went and saw a comedy show the
other night with Brett Gellman, who plays the conspiracy Yeah. Yeah,
and his solo thing was really good. Like his show
that he did, I won't spoil it, but he wasn't
very good at yes ending. He was really into like
shutting people down and maybe it was kind of his style,
but it made me really uncomfortable. That is, like, I
(25:57):
hadn't been to an improv show in a while. They
did like half of the shows improv, and he would
just be like, no, that's not how this is gonna go.
It's gonna go like this, even when reacts, you know,
you know, a full disclosure.
Speaker 4 (26:09):
I know those guys, even with even with my buddy Kevin, I.
Speaker 3 (26:12):
Think Kevin was the main dude.
Speaker 6 (26:13):
And then there was Amber from from Archer, who was great.
Everyone was great, and and Bratt was funny. But I
just found that it was sort of like, I'm gonna
do improv a little bit different.
Speaker 4 (26:26):
Welcome to the school of no.
Speaker 2 (26:28):
But yes, sorry.
Speaker 4 (26:32):
Bruske Bien, you have Devney Progosia school of improv. He's
not exactly dull close. So there's there's this idea that
you could change the leadership, keep the experience right, keep
the Hoy paloy, keep the infantry, the rank and file.
But if you look at the boffins in these various
(26:53):
Western think tanks, they feel this is possible but unlikely. Instead,
there's another mergent option, and it's got that kind of
new car smell. Why not just engage another Russian based
private military corporation or company, just change the brand name,
but just put them into the same job position, the
(27:16):
same day to day operations. You know, be like, hey,
this used to be you know what, I'll take the potshots.
This used to be Comcast, but now it's Exfinity. Don't worry,
We're still in charge of the coup.
Speaker 6 (27:30):
So there are enough of these outfits around to just
do the old switcheroo.
Speaker 2 (27:34):
Well, no, you just create one, right, But that's what
Ben's saying, like, you go, oh, here's the new thing.
Speaker 3 (27:39):
Wait, wait, create them from what though?
Speaker 6 (27:42):
Obviously you need this organization because of their manpower and
because of their whatever.
Speaker 3 (27:47):
Right.
Speaker 2 (27:47):
Well maybe I'm wrong, but Ben, I think that's what
you're saying. You create the corporate entity, right because all
that takes is a bank and an address and a
couple other things.
Speaker 3 (27:58):
Then you staff it with your own So take.
Speaker 2 (28:00):
This the Wagner staff.
Speaker 3 (28:02):
All you shuffle them around.
Speaker 2 (28:04):
You guys are gone. We're dissolving this company now. Everybody
walk over here. Okay, now stand here, take this corporate
t shirt.
Speaker 6 (28:10):
But Ben, to your Kurt's Judge kind of point earlier,
Wasn't there a lot of fear and loyalty within the
Wagner organization like that? Isn't that how he got them
to march with him against the country that they're supposedly protecting.
I just have a hard time believing that all of
those people, without certain dispensations, you know, would just like
(28:33):
do what you're saying.
Speaker 3 (28:34):
Maybe I'm honest.
Speaker 4 (28:35):
I think we're all right, We're all correct in looking
at this. What we need to understand is in this
sort of bloody business, they're always going to be men
like this, They're always going to be forces. There will
always be an alternative, right if the first one doesn't
work out. To your point, Noel, and to your point, Matt,
(28:57):
there will always be the opportunity unity to do. You know,
the military version of a new LLC. Just walk across
the street. We got a different office. Give us fifteen
minutes to see some new badges on the uniform I
was looking into now. Think tanks are really not something
(29:19):
you should trust. Shout out to our pal Jake, and
shout out to our good friend Robert Evans. A lot
of think tanks, unfortunately have dirty money or agendas supporting them,
and with that being said, if you understand that lens,
then we can understand that they are doing very good work.
They are very very intelligent people. And so I cast
(29:41):
no dispersion on some of the folks who were quoting
Kendall Taylor, Andrew or Andrea. Kendall Taylor is a Russian
intelligence expert at the Washington based Center for New American Security,
and say what you want about CNAs. This person. She
is legit, she's on the money, and she's sharp, and
(30:02):
she says she thinks that what's going to happen is
parts of Wagner are going to be folded in under
the existing Russian structure in some way, and they're going
to be sort of sold off there. They're no longer
going to be one concentrated thing. They're just going to
be a bunch of subcontractors, which also makes them more
(30:24):
difficult to erase.
Speaker 6 (30:26):
But Benmus, I must come back to my previous question.
Are there are there like a bunch of these types
of operations just ready to to hop too again?
Speaker 4 (30:37):
Yes, there there will always be men for this sort
of job, you know. And it's a good question. It's
a disturbing question. More people should ask more often. Our
expert that we mentioned earlier, Kendall Taylor. She notes that
Russia is going to continue to use pmc's private military
(30:59):
contract the United States is going to continue to mess
with Halliburn. They're just going to be spread about in
different ways. Like if you the best way to say
it is the evil way to say it is if
you run a shady mercenary army. It's a great time
to put in an application to Russia. Just find Vladimir
(31:21):
Putin on LinkedIn and say, hey, Bud, sorry about the planes.
I got some stuff going on. This is the kind
of thing that keeps Eric Prince, the owner of Academi
Wait Exy, Wait, Blackwater Wait constellis awake at nights salivating
government contracts. We've got to go to the La Times.
(31:42):
They have a great exploration of this, and Noel, I
think this speaks directly to the point that you're raising.
Speaker 3 (31:50):
Yeah, I think it does.
Speaker 6 (31:51):
Ben. In this piece, they speak to a Ukrainian open
source intelligence company whose business it is to track these
types of organizations, and shockingly, I guess, at least to me,
they tracked thirty seven of these types of contractors.
Speaker 3 (32:09):
And I guess my question really was I mean, I totally.
Speaker 6 (32:11):
See what you mean about there will always be men
that will do stuff like this, but will there be
like hundreds of them, thousands of them under a single banner?
Speaker 3 (32:20):
You know what I mean?
Speaker 6 (32:21):
Because that to me seemed like what the benefit of
Wagner was was that they were all this like, you know,
army of scale that could be bought and paid and
paid for. It makes me think of like stuff from like,
you know, the Golden what are they called in Game
of Thrones? There was like a whole mercenary army that
they hired that was literally a massive army of the
(32:41):
scale of like the kind of army a country would have.
Speaker 4 (32:44):
Yeah. Absolutely, raise a very good point there, man, because
we're thinking about the Golden Company.
Speaker 3 (32:52):
That's a Golden company.
Speaker 4 (32:54):
Yeah, and they were sort of the Wagner of that story.
The issue is exactly what you describe economy of scale.
If you look at it now, there are two outfits
that are closer to being the next Wagner. One is
called Convoy sadly not affiliated with the amazing song by C. W. McCall.
(33:19):
Can we even can we play a clip?
Speaker 3 (33:21):
Shortly? Isn't there a movie?
Speaker 6 (33:23):
Too?
Speaker 3 (33:24):
Is called Convoy. It's drug drivers.
Speaker 4 (33:28):
So so just so Matt Nolan and I and and
you played along home, fellow conspiracy realist can vibe with this.
We're gonna play just a short clip of Convoy.
Speaker 2 (33:41):
A breaker one nine this year as a rubber duck.
Speaker 3 (33:44):
You've got a copy on the fan, come on, oh yeah, Convoy.
The song is from Convoy the movie.
Speaker 6 (33:51):
So that's pregosia I am for good, buddy, dude. The
the poster of Convoy is so horny, it's like just
just ripped Chris Kristofferson getting felt real nice and.
Speaker 3 (34:07):
Good by his lady co star for the film. Yeah,
for the film.
Speaker 6 (34:12):
But it's also one of those like hand drawn kind
of Indiana Jones type posters.
Speaker 4 (34:17):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (34:17):
So it just has like extra drama.
Speaker 6 (34:19):
It honestly looks like the cover of like a dime
store kind of romance novel.
Speaker 4 (34:22):
Little Steamy, Yeah, little little Lurid.
Speaker 3 (34:26):
Indeed. Yeah.
Speaker 4 (34:27):
Convoy, the private military contractor is pretty young. It was
established late last year by a guy named Sergi Askyonov,
the head of the head of the Interim attempt at
Russian Governance in Crimea. At Crimea and Putin's administration took
(34:51):
over that that bit of land back in twenty fourteen.
Convoy is right now. Convoy is the suited to replace Wagner.
It's run by a guy who used to hang with Pregosian,
a guy named Konstantine Piccolov. So we got the experience
(35:12):
and that's not the only thing that's right.
Speaker 6 (35:15):
Convoy since forming has received quite.
Speaker 3 (35:18):
A bit of capital in the form of donations. Sure.
Speaker 6 (35:24):
Yeah, the quotation fingers and donations right untrackable. People are
getting something from their donations, maybe trackable, but the intention,
I believe is something a little underhanded here, if I'm
not mistaken.
Speaker 4 (35:41):
Is it a donation or is it an investment? A
lot of those donations to our sound effect, they came
from a bank called VTB, which is mostly owned by
the Russian state, and they came from an oligarch in
Putin's new network guy named Rutenberg. So we've got second
(36:04):
the connections. If you want to learn more about these connections,
check out, of course sad olagark by er pal Jake,
and check out the Dossier Center, which tracks what they
see as criminal activity and network associations for the Kremlin. However,
there is a PEPSI for every Coca Cola, and if
(36:25):
convoys are Coca Cola, then the Pepsi here is an
outfit called Reduced m hmm.
Speaker 6 (36:33):
Yeah, there's a great article you found in the Eurasian
Times talking about how you know, Wagner is out, Redout
is in or redo, however you want to pronounce it.
You know, they're filling that vacuum as a power vacuum.
I mean, I'm from the moment there was news of
the demise that suppose I'm still not convinced the demise
of Pregosian. Any of these burgeoning military you know, extra
(36:58):
military organizations must have been just champ at the bit.
Speaker 4 (37:01):
Yeah, well, put man because Reduct or Pepsi in the conversation,
was involved in action protecting Russian interest in Syria. They're
also one of the first forces on the ground in
the twenty twenty two Ukraine invasion. There's an immediate problem
that arises. Both of these groups, Convoy and Redout. They
(37:24):
are tiny, infinitesimal in comparison to Wagner, and Wagner itself
pretty small, you know. It's like, at the at the
craziest estimate, Wagner is like fifty thousand operators.
Speaker 3 (37:39):
That's a lot.
Speaker 6 (37:41):
But what are we talking for, reduct Ben, do you
have a sense from maybe some of these fractionally sized organizations.
Speaker 4 (37:49):
Yeah, it's thirty seven guys, serious, No, no, because I
was in my mind.
Speaker 6 (37:54):
It could mean a lot of things. It could mean
the size of like a really high quality strike force.
Are like swat team.
Speaker 4 (38:02):
Yeah they're, but we're talking bigger than that, right, Yeah, hundreds, Yeah,
they're they're bigger. They're in the thousands, both of them,
but they're they're not in the fifty thousand range. And
you know, unless there's some mercenary version of a merger acquisition.
These groups also, no matter how many people they have,
(38:22):
they don't have the same field experience you find in Wagner.
Speaker 3 (38:27):
They don't have the.
Speaker 4 (38:28):
People who have shut down puppet governments right or instituted
their own. Wagner can go toe to toe with France
in Africa, which is nuts.
Speaker 3 (38:42):
That is much more Golden Company style.
Speaker 6 (38:45):
And Ben, I don't think we've mentioned this in this episode,
but I know that we have in the past. That
one tactic that you know, you know, we talked about
how pregosion really is kind of a culture personality or
was a culti personality. So there's some loyalty to him,
least of all because he got some folks out of
some prison sentences in order, you know, for like a
(39:06):
lighter sentence or like a furlough or something if you
fight for his group. Surely these other smaller groups can't
offer quite the same unless again, maybe the goal with
the Putin is to combine them, rebrand them, and then
do some of the same stuff that Pregosian was doing
off books.
Speaker 4 (39:23):
Oh yeah, man, And it makes sense logically. Pregoshon is
exceptional because he built Wagner by gathering more than three
hundred different private companies together Convoy and REDDA. They cannot
say that that's part of why Wagner became as much
(39:44):
of a cult as it was a mercenary group at
the end. And one thing is for sure, the need
for something like Wagner exists for the Russian government, which
means that need will be satisfied one way or the
other by hook or by crooks. So with this in mind,
the ultimate analysis is the Kremlin will move quickly to
(40:06):
contain and stabilize a leader to lists Wagner, and that
is fragmenting balkanizing. As we record this containment to your point, Noal,
whatever form it takes, it will one hundred percent aim
to maintain business as usual, force projection, resource extraction, running
the coups.
Speaker 3 (40:27):
And I guess the thing that keeps sticking in the
back of my mind is like.
Speaker 6 (40:32):
If Russia is so contained and they kind of answer
to no one, barely acknowledge the international community, you know,
accept as interlopers on what is theirs? Why do they
need that's plausible deniability so much? Is it just in
the face of like international courts and war crimes and stuff,
or when they're poking their nose in places that don't
(40:54):
belong to them and stealing resources on behalf of Russia.
Russia can basically say, well, I don't know anying about that,
we didn't do that. But at the same time Putin
has said openly, you mentioned at the beginning of the
show that they're really good at stealing other people's stuff.
So why the plausible deniability?
Speaker 4 (41:10):
It's an interesting question because at some point does this
not seem like.
Speaker 3 (41:15):
A fig leaf?
Speaker 4 (41:16):
What would you if you were the president of the
United States? What would you say if it turned out
that you were not only engaging mercenaries to commit war crimes,
but you were also taking people out of your prison
system and putting them in the field. This is a question.
(41:38):
It's a difficult question to answer. I think we pause
for a word from our sponsor for a moment, and
then we return and talk about a very interesting point.
You brought up nol a convict army.
Speaker 3 (41:57):
And we're back, Ben, Let's get right to it.
Speaker 6 (42:00):
What a what a way to attract loyal followers, loyal
militants into your group who potentially maybe have some street
fighting skills by legally busting them out of jail or
prison right ilegally quotation fingers Again, a lot.
Speaker 3 (42:20):
Of black box stuff going on in this part of
the world, you know what I mean.
Speaker 4 (42:23):
Yeah, if you make the laws, you decide what is legal.
It was a huge hit for Western propaganda, the idea
that Russian convicts even those who committed egregious violent crimes.
We're talking sexual assault, murders, you know, crimes against children.
Not to be too explicit, those folks were given plea deals,
(42:47):
the rumor went, in exchange for joining Wagner not to
be trained as operators, but to function as canon fodder.
And it turned out this was absolutely true, and as
a result, you know, when Wagner dissolves, this leads to
a situation where in thousands of criminals are cut loose.
(43:11):
To your earlier point, man about nineteen eighty four, this
is what Winston Smith would call double plus un good.
But it's still like thousands, thousands monstrous people roaming free
as a bird. But that's still is less less of
a threat than the larger instability issues facing the Russian
(43:36):
state and therefore the world very soon.
Speaker 3 (43:39):
Yeah, well, I mean, you know a lot of analysts.
Speaker 6 (43:42):
That I've been listening to and reading think that this
is all kind of a sign of Russia's ultimate weakness.
That the reason that Wagner did what they did, or
the Progosian defected in the way he did, was because
he lost faith in the operation. He lost faith in Putin,
(44:03):
and he thinks Putin is no longer acting in the
best interest of the country. But again, it's you know,
it's really hard to nail down the motivations of a mercenary,
you know what I mean. He's not acting on some
sort of like you know, taking a stand for what's
right exactly. He's just basically saying the winds have shifted,
you know, we are here to get paid and make
(44:25):
sure that we have the stuff we need. We think
maybe Putin's not the guy to do that anymore, or something.
Speaker 3 (44:30):
I don't know, but.
Speaker 6 (44:31):
There is a lot of questioning about whether Putin's kind
of grasp is slipping.
Speaker 4 (44:37):
Right, allegations of dementia, allegations of possible terminal deteriorating nervous
system conditions right. Also in Progosion, I think we see
a real life version of a Colonel Kurtz, you know,
for fans a Heart of Darkness, or for people who
(44:58):
watch Apocalypse Now. The thing about Kurtz is that he
becomes a personification of war. He doesn't really want the
war to end, right, And you could say the same
about Pregosian, Like to your point, Noe, what are the
guy's ultimate aims?
Speaker 5 (45:16):
What were they?
Speaker 3 (45:17):
You know?
Speaker 4 (45:18):
Did he want a peaceful, happy world? Did he want
the blood and treasure and the experience of chasing that?
It's a scary thing. The big I guess, from Wagner's
perspective and from the Russian perspective, their big moment in
the sun was the taking of Bakhmut the city in Ukraine,
(45:39):
in eastern Ukraine. And unfortunately, even if you erase Wagner
from the board, the war in Ukraine will continue. The
Putin administration is definitely scrambling to try to maintain their
grip on various resources on the African continent and in
(45:59):
the Middle East. But even without Wagner, they still have
enough capability to continue this conflict. But their capabilities are finite.
Russia is a collapse state. It is a kleptocracy. That's
a problem.
Speaker 3 (46:18):
You know.
Speaker 4 (46:18):
You would think maybe that if you are not Russia,
or if you were opposed to Russia, it'd be very
good for that state to collapse. It would mean you
win the game. But the problem is, because Russia has
never hesitated to pay blood for treasure, it still has
one more move to pool, a very dangerous move, because
(46:41):
Russia is a nuclear capable state.
Speaker 3 (46:45):
Yeah, that's right, I mean, I was.
Speaker 6 (46:49):
I heard some stats recently about like the amount of
certain military gear that they possess in terms of tanks
and ships and whatever, and it's pretty negligible, like compare
to what the US and NATO and all that stuff has,
Like it really pales in comparison. Uh, that's also partially
probably another reason why they need to beef up their
military support with hiring these types of groups. But what
(47:13):
what does change the calculation entirely is their arsenal of
nuclear weapons, their their nuclear submarines, and their ability to
hit most of Europe directly from where.
Speaker 3 (47:26):
They are, you know, exactly. Yeah, it's a big deal.
Speaker 6 (47:29):
I mean, like, you know, I went to Berlin a
couple of years, it's been almost two years now, and
a member of our party who was going to go
it was right when the Ukrainian War started, and they
opted not to come because there is that wild card
loose cannon energy around putin that he would do some
wild like that, and he said it what do they
(47:52):
call it, ben saber rattling, you know, that kind of stuff.
And that's that's the piece that he possesses the ability
to continue to leverage all this stuff, is that they
have the nukes.
Speaker 4 (48:03):
Oh well, you know, that reminds me of that old
Rby's commercial, We.
Speaker 3 (48:08):
Have the nukes.
Speaker 4 (48:09):
Yeah, yeah, where's the beef for Wendy's.
Speaker 2 (48:12):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (48:12):
So that's that's the big elephant in the room right
of the globe, which is could there be a nuclear exchange.
The three biggest powers in the world geopolitically right now
are what we could call the Russian Crew, which would
(48:33):
be Iran, Syria, North Korea, deeprk maybe Venezuela if you
want to put that in, and then there would be
the West, NATO, the US couple others. They're they're trying
to hit on India real hard, we'll see how it
works out. And then the third beat China, you know,
bricks on bricks on bricks. These three primary powers, to
(48:55):
be very clear with everyone, save you some time if
you ever want to study international affairs in college, is
what you need to know. Those three primary world powers
are right now all run by pretty elderly, pretty wild
ass dudes. They do not give up.
Speaker 6 (49:13):
Yeah, same kind of I mean, you know, I would
count Progosian as one of those elderly, wild ass dudes
who is just.
Speaker 3 (49:21):
Larger than life, you know. I mean, you don't get into.
Speaker 6 (49:24):
That business of death dealing, you know, unless you've got
I don't know, man, you got something going on, you know.
I mean, these are people that have been part of
the kinds of secret operations that maybe the KGB would
have been involved in. You know, people that have served
(49:44):
in a very different way from what we may think
of as military service.
Speaker 3 (49:48):
You know here in the United States, would I would think,
you know.
Speaker 6 (49:53):
Not not to say that the United States military service
and like, you know, we do some dirt too, no
question about it. But you know, we know what the
KGB gets up to. I mean, they're notoriously ruthless. And
I would assume that a regime run by the former
head of the KGB is going to deploy some of
those types of tricks and some of that kind of
(50:13):
ruthless mentality, and then those are the types of people
that are going to gravitate towards a man like that.
Speaker 4 (50:19):
Yeah, very well said. You know, while while these three
large categories of powers are not adverse to a little
enemy of my enemy as my friend action, those relationships
are the equivalent of one night stands. Both China and
the United States know that they will get a big
(50:40):
win if Russia falls, and Russia knows that they know that,
So it's super awkward. That's why if you dig just
a bit, you'll see some strange bedfellows situations. We were
talking about this, Matt Noel and I were talking about
this off air a little while back, the US just
(51:00):
specifically warned North Korea not to aid Russia, and uh,
the leader of North Korea or d p r K
is is about to visit Vladimir Putin in person and
talk about working together and then Russia for their side.
They specifically warned Uncle Sam not to bring nukes over
(51:20):
to the United Kingdom, which means it's time for old
Who's who's in charge of that place? Now?
Speaker 3 (51:26):
Who's it's the king?
Speaker 4 (51:27):
Right?
Speaker 6 (51:28):
I guess too much stuff going on over here to
keep tracking those those Brits. But yeah, Kim, you know
that seems fine, right, Putin and Kim together again.
Speaker 4 (51:41):
Yeah, they're just watching Police Academy like we do.
Speaker 6 (51:46):
Match made and fascist heaven there it is. I mean,
really they they hurt each other.
Speaker 3 (51:51):
I mean, I mean seriously, that just sounds terrifying.
Speaker 6 (51:54):
That sounds double plus plus triple plus un good bad bad,
not good.
Speaker 4 (52:00):
Yeah, Like, think about this. What does all this show us?
It shows us when we look at these conspiracies, which
are not theories for the most part, When we look
at these conspiracies, it teaches us that the post Wagner
world is not going to be much different. At first,
There's one counterintuitive puzzle piece. Russia losing its Halliburton escalates
(52:23):
the danger for the continuation of the Russian state, and
when the Russian state feels endangered, it is increasingly likely
to consider some moves that would otherwise not be seriously considered.
Speaker 6 (52:38):
You know, well, it's also like you have to think
about the state of Putin's mind and how he views
his legacy, and is he the kind of guy that,
knowing that he's on the way out, why not just
hit the big red button.
Speaker 3 (52:55):
You know what I mean?
Speaker 2 (52:56):
Oh, dude, he's totally going to hit that button.
Speaker 4 (52:58):
You think, so not a wonder.
Speaker 3 (53:00):
I don't know.
Speaker 6 (53:01):
I mean, I wonder, you know, I mean, it scares me.
You're right, it's scary, But also it makes me think
what we do know. It would appear that this whole
situation with Wagner it was legit, and it was as
a result of people in high up, people in that
(53:22):
organization thinking that what Putin was doing wasn't good and
was no longer serving their interests. I have a hard
time believing these smaller organizations won't feel similarly. But they
also might just look at it as an opportunity to
become something larger than what they are and therefore be
like yes, daddy all day long.
Speaker 4 (53:40):
Sure, perhaps until they find a new, higher paying daddy.
The way that the way that this kind of stuff works,
like the honest conspiracy realist perspective on a rush of
face with an existential threat and the likelihood of using nukes.
(54:01):
It's not publicized as Vladimir Putin pushing you know, a
cartoon cartoon button or picking up a red landline phone
and saying dah or whatever. It's more like the right right,
you know, tell them there are no car washes in
(54:22):
Crimea or whatever. Instead it's it's a quote unquote totally
not associated with Russia, private military contractor that somehow quote
unquote illegally acquires a low yield nuclear device, you know,
kind of like a bunker buster. And then Russia again
(54:42):
is the guy in the hot dog costume going, we
have to find who's responsible for this, or you could
have a proxy force on the outside of the global
order already Think up Yongyang, think that's a rod and
they rain fire. In the case of North Korea, maybe
it comes from their newly minted apparently nuclear capable submarine.
(55:06):
And the entire time that stuff happens, if it ever happens,
and let's hope it does it the entire time that happens.
The Russian state officially can sound like that old Shaggy song.
Do you guys remember that Shaggy on.
Speaker 6 (55:21):
There banging in the shower, all over the place, all over,
all over the apartment table.
Speaker 4 (55:27):
It wasn't him, though they were both.
Speaker 6 (55:29):
Button naked and bang banging on the bathroom floor. It's
a real catchy bop. You almost have to like sing
the whole thing in your head. The best part is that,
Oh good.
Speaker 2 (55:41):
The workaholics guys made a movie where he shows up
and I think he was gonna have to sing that song.
I think it was Shaggy. It's pretty great.
Speaker 4 (55:48):
Former marine by the way.
Speaker 2 (55:50):
Yes, guys, it's sorry for being asked and jumping back in.
But like we've never faced let me rephrase this, since
the Cold War right and the tensions occurring there, we've
never had a global superpower facing a seriously existential annihilating
threat right to where they are backed. Any any force
(56:13):
has been backed into a corner to where they feel like,
if we do not use everything we have, we as
a country will be extinct and I don't think we
are anywhere near that with Russia right now, so hopefully
that situation isn't going to come to fruition anytime soon.
It does feel like I don't know if to me
(56:35):
that feels way off in the distance, like not possible
because humanity will prevail in their thought of humanity needs
to survive even if my country doesn't. Kind of thing.
I really hope, I really really hope that's the situation
where I.
Speaker 6 (56:49):
Just think Putin's big enough of an a whole to
not think like that, especially if you know with the
the the unilateral nature of his power, you know that
he's bestowed upon himself and the ability for him not
to have to get sign off from others, that if
he did have some sort of mental you know, breakdown
(57:09):
or deterioration, that's something very very scary could happen. I mean,
I'm not trying to freak anybody out. I'm just I
think about this. You know it does. But I agree
with you, Matt. You know that it's certainly not as
bad as the Cold War, but in some ways it's
scarier because this is a person at the end of
his life or at the end of his legacy who
really wants to make an impact.
Speaker 4 (57:29):
It reminds me a little bit of the Automan Empire.
Thank goodness, you guys remember back in the day, Like,
thank goodness, they did not have nuclear capability. People weren't
really talking about and you expect then. But you're right,
it's not to that point yet. The issue is that
the issue is that the instability escalates. And right now,
(57:54):
as weird as a counterintuitive again as it may sound,
the reality is simply this. There is a solid case
that the chaos Wagner spread during its heyday may well
end up being less dangerous than the chaos spread by
its death throes. And that's not saying that either case
(58:17):
is in any way good. It's just saying there's bad
and then there's worse, or there's worse and then there's
worse and worst, and then you know, dead hand because
Putin woke up with a bad day in a case
of the.
Speaker 6 (58:30):
Craps trippity dippity dubb dub dubs double plus on good bad,
bad bad.
Speaker 4 (58:35):
Quite So, I mean, for now, okay, we have to
do it. It is our want, it is our remit
in this continuing mission, folks, we have to give you
what the Kremlin officially says. They deny any speculation that
they or Vladmir Putin directly ordered Pregosian's death. It's unfortunate
(58:59):
their investigating. That's the official line.
Speaker 3 (59:02):
You know.
Speaker 4 (59:02):
There's some neo Nazis in Ukraine, they say that are
probably responsible, right, because it's a.
Speaker 3 (59:09):
Line from the start, right right, right, Yeah.
Speaker 4 (59:14):
And while the form of Wagner's future role in Ukraine
is still under question, it will continue operations elsewhere in
the Middle East, in the African continent, and those operations,
as balkanized or fragmented as they may become. They are
(59:34):
in frantic communication with the Russian Ministry of Defense. The
names of the war may change, the names of the
chess pieces may evolve.
Speaker 3 (59:42):
Is that a castle?
Speaker 4 (59:43):
Is it a rook? I'll tell you what. They do,
the same thing from Kiev to Moscow, from Bamako to Bangi, Bengi,
if you wish. We can't make any mistake. The great
game continues, and it does so at the expense of
innocent people all around the world. This is our Vagner
up date. You know, if you if you work for
(01:00:05):
Vagner right to us.
Speaker 3 (01:00:07):
Can I just add one little thing.
Speaker 6 (01:00:08):
We talked about this offt of Mike, and I think
it's so fringy that it's almost not worth mentioning, but
I do think it's interesting. There's a guy by the
name of Professor Valerie Solova who has apparently had a
relationship with the Russian media for some time, making some
would say quite outrageous claims, and has been cast as
a bit of a conspiracy nut.
Speaker 3 (01:00:30):
But he has said openly a couple of things.
Speaker 6 (01:00:33):
One that Progosian is in fact not dead but living
on an island in Venezuela called Margarita Island, which is
also where Jimmy Buffett is living. He didn't actually die either.
They're hanging out there together sipin' marks. I'm kidding about
the second bar. It's both probably kidding level. But this
guy's also claimed that Putin is on death's door, like
(01:00:58):
he claims to have supporting docums men saying leaked documents
saying that Putin is so.
Speaker 3 (01:01:03):
Ill that he might not last the year.
Speaker 6 (01:01:08):
So yeah, definitely worth a little bit of rabbit holing
on this guy. Professor Valerie soliv a largely a fringy,
debunked kind of figure, but I didn't think it was interesting.
Speaker 3 (01:01:20):
It came up in a couple spots.
Speaker 2 (01:01:23):
How do you spell that last name?
Speaker 3 (01:01:25):
It is so O l o v e y.
Speaker 4 (01:01:29):
So Again, the most important thing to remember from this episode,
from this update, or two things. If you are affiliated
with Wagner, if you're affiliated with PMCs in general, and
you know what I'm talking about, then do feel free
to write to us. We would love to hear from you. Second, actually,
(01:01:52):
flip it. The most important thing. Innocent people who have
no opportunity to make a choice here, they will suffer
the results of these great powers, of these pretty elderly,
pretty wild ass dudes once again making decisions for their
version of a greater good, however bubbled, attenuated, narrowed that
(01:02:16):
may be. We want to hear from you. Thank you
as always for tuning in and just let us know, like,
let us know what you think the future is here?
You know if you if you have some opinions on
the safety of aircraft, we'd love to hear that too.
We try to be easy to find online.
Speaker 3 (01:02:36):
Correct.
Speaker 6 (01:02:36):
You can find us at the handle conspiracy stuff, where
we exist on x nay, Twitter, x nay, on the intertway.
You can also find us at that handle on Facebook
and on YouTube. That's again conspiracy stuff. We are Conspiracy
Stuff show on Instagram and TikTok.
Speaker 2 (01:02:54):
Hey, do you like using your phone to make calls?
Why not call us? Our number is one eight to
three std WYTK. When you call in, you've got three minutes.
Say whatever you'd like. Just make sure to give yourself
a cool nickname and let us know if we have
permission to use your name and voice on the air.
If you've got more to say than can fit in
that three minutes, why not instead send us a good
(01:03:16):
old fashioned email. We read everything we get.
Speaker 5 (01:03:19):
We are conspiracy at iHeartRadio dot com.
Speaker 2 (01:03:41):
Stuff they don't want you to know is a production
of iHeartRadio. For more podcasts from iHeartRadio, visit the iHeartRadio app,
Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to your favorite shows.
From UFOs to psychic powers and government conspiracies. History is
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production of iHeartRadio.
Speaker 2 (00:24):
Hello, welcome back to the show. My name is Matt,
my name is Noah.
Speaker 3 (00:27):
They call me Ben.
Speaker 4 (00:28):
We're joined as always with our super producer Paul mission
controlled decads. Most importantly, you are you, You are here,
and that makes this the stuff they don't want you
to know. Tonight, we are returning to a story that's
been on quite a few people's minds, quite often.
Speaker 5 (00:46):
Quite recently.
Speaker 4 (00:47):
Several weeks ago, a guy that you've probably heard about,
Yevgeny Pregoshan, the leader of a group called Wagner, appears
to have died in an airplane explosion north of Moscow.
You can see all sorts of analysis about it, as
well as a chilling announcement by Vladimir Putin, still President
of Russia. As a matter of fact, Can we play
(01:08):
the video? Can we play a clip of this? Have
you guys heard this guy?
Speaker 2 (01:11):
Let's do it?
Speaker 3 (01:14):
Dona snatch.
Speaker 6 (01:23):
Yeah, a man with a complex destiny. That's interesting, yes,
so Ben, just just a very little clarity around the clip.
Is this post attempted coup? Mm hmm, okay, yeah.
Speaker 4 (01:42):
This is after after the unfortunate airplane expedition.
Speaker 3 (01:47):
You know.
Speaker 4 (01:48):
Uh, Vladimir Putin, current President of Russia, comes out and says,
I've known you've got any progosion for a very long time,
since the nineties. He was a man with a complicated fate.
He made serious mistakes in life. It's kind of cold
as eulogies go.
Speaker 6 (02:04):
I think that's why I was confused, because it didn't
even seem like a eulogy. And it also you off off, Mike,
You skipped through a whole bunch of other stuff before
you even got to the slight mention.
Speaker 3 (02:16):
So it's like really kind of a footnote. Very cold.
Speaker 2 (02:20):
Yeah, but guys, what do you say about a guy
that just tried to leave a mutiny against you? When
that person dies? I liked him. You know, what do
you say this jerk tried to overthrow my government? You know?
I mean, I don't know.
Speaker 4 (02:36):
Yeah, it's a good question. Earlier, we'd speculated on the
many rumors surrounding the alleged death or various death theories
of Pregosian and his top men, at Wagner, But tonight's
episode is asking what happens next the king is dead,
what happens to the kingdom? Here are the facts. We
(02:59):
need to give a quick recap on Wagner in general,
because a lot of times, I think people in the
West hear the phrase Wagner and they think like it's
a battalion of the Russian military or something like that.
But it's a lot closer to Blackwater.
Speaker 6 (03:18):
Yeah, I mean, you know, it's something that people I
think in the West weren't hearing about at all for
many years. I mean, it's really acted as kind of,
like I think, been the term that you've used in
the past, as sort of shadow military, you know, for
Russia for a lot longer than this conflict has been
at play, and these most recent kind of hiccups in
(03:41):
the relationship.
Speaker 4 (03:41):
Let's just say, right, agreed, Yeah, Wagner is a private
military contractor or PMC, and like you said, Noel, for
a long time it was a de facto shadow army
for Russia, similar to for instance, Blackwater. Oh wait, Matt, sorry,
is it z X Oh wait is it ACADEMI?
Speaker 3 (04:05):
Oh?
Speaker 4 (04:05):
Hang on, is it constell Us?
Speaker 2 (04:08):
I don't know. It's all of those. Yeah, yeah, but
private military contractors became famous or at least a known thing.
That phrase became a known thing in the US during
the Afghanistan War or whatever they want to call it,
the war in Afghanistan, when we invaded Afghanistan as a
(04:29):
country United States. We learned about Blackwater. Then we learned about,
you know, operations in Iraq and other countries that maybe
we shouldn't have been operating in where private military contractors
went in and did some operations again on other countries
soil while they were operating in a place where the
US military is officially operating. Just some weird stuff has happened.
(04:52):
We also saw stuff like that back during the Vietnam War,
right when Laos and other countries were you know, there
was activity going on when it really wasn't supposed to be.
What I'm saying is that is what you can kind
of do with a private military military contractor like the
Wagner Group. You can have them do some things that
(05:15):
are maybe they it would be an international incident if
let's say the official Russian Army was taking part in
actions in parts of Africa.
Speaker 4 (05:25):
One hundred percent ah Man so well put uh. Wagner
is also common misconception in the West. Wagner is also
a group of private entities operating under one name. It's
kind of like, you know, the Portuguese Man of War
is essentially a colony of independent, very small organisms functioning
(05:48):
as a super colony that appears like one organism from
far away.
Speaker 6 (05:52):
Yeah, sort of like the human The human being is
a combination, complex, combination of cells and bios, all of
that good stuff. This one just happens to be one
that in this particular case is very specifically serving the
interests of Russia up until you know, the whole coup thing,
(06:14):
which was weird, and I think the reason all of
this still perplexes me where I'm like, you know, we
we even conjectured i think with Jake Hanrahan where it
was sort of like could it have been a manufactured thing?
Speaker 3 (06:27):
You know, there's so many questions around that it was
just real weird.
Speaker 6 (06:32):
And then this guy's plane gets well, we don't know
if it was shot. We didn't, we don't have evidence
of that, I don't believe yet, but falls out of
the sky. And another thing we talked about with Jake
Hanrahan was the the seeming issues with gravity that opponents
of Vladimir Putin tend to face.
Speaker 4 (06:52):
Yeah, they faced them head on.
Speaker 6 (06:54):
Usually to me, when this news popped, I think probably
to all of us, we were much more inclined to
be like, oh, yeah, that wasn't manufactured. That guy was
doing a thing and Putin popped him out of the sky,
or did he.
Speaker 3 (07:10):
We'll get into some of that too.
Speaker 6 (07:13):
God, this stuff is as greasy as bubbles from Trailer
Park Boys would say.
Speaker 4 (07:20):
Love it, love it. Also check out the sea shanty
that Trailer Park Boys did. It's all about cats. It's
very good. So, like we talked about in our previous
primer episode on Wagner, before all this went down, before
these conspiracies came to fruition, these Wagner guys, they get
(07:42):
into all kinds of high jinks.
Speaker 5 (07:44):
You know.
Speaker 4 (07:44):
They got international notoriety in the Dombas War back in
twenty fourteen, twenty fifteen, and since that point they have
been involved in multiple coups and civil wars across the
continent of Africa. In the Middle East. They fought in Sudan, Mali, Mozambique.
And what they're doing in those situations is exerting Russian
(08:08):
influence and interest by proxy, they are resource extracting and
force projecting. As we established earlier, Wagner in its heyday
got a percentage a vig of every resource when they
interfered or when they, excuse me, interceded in the country's activity.
Speaker 2 (08:30):
Oh, exactly, they're getting their cut. Just to clarify there,
the dawnbas War, if you're not aware, is the conflict
between Russia and Ukraine that started back in twenty fourteen,
as you said, Ben, and that is really one of
the things that has just kind of continued when there
were separatists inside Ukraine that were you at least according
(08:52):
to the best knowledge that we have, they're Russian supported
operating inside Ukraine, and then large conflicts started there and
then the Wagner came in to kind of fill in
what a military would.
Speaker 4 (09:02):
Do one hundred percent. Yeah, And Wagner was also up
until quite recently a cult of personality similar to Heart
of Darkness or Apocalypse.
Speaker 3 (09:15):
Now.
Speaker 4 (09:16):
The followers of Pragosion treated him like a real life
Colonel Kurtz or like Judge Holden, probably one of the
best villains in American literature. Check out Blood Meridian by
Kormack McCarthy. They treated Progosion as though he could do
no wrong, and internal tensions arose. The Russian Ministry of
(09:39):
Defense was beefed up with Progosion for a long time.
Eventually it boiled over. And what you were referencing earlier,
Nol Wagner marched on Moscow unsuccessfully and for a short time,
for like twenty three hours around June twenty fourth, twenty
(09:59):
twenty three. And if you look back now, analysts will
overwhelmingly say by hook or by crook, this is what
led to Pregosians aircraft accident.
Speaker 2 (10:12):
Yeah, and as we said before, allegedly it began because
of Wagner group what I don't know what you'd call it?
A group of Wagners. We're allegedly attacked by the Russian military,
either accidentally or purposefully, which then led them to march
on Moscow. So just just who knows exactly what happened?
(10:37):
Those are the reports we have access to.
Speaker 4 (10:39):
You know, it makes me think of I was just
listening to our earlier episode on controlling the future via
controlling the past, and Matt, you brought up this excellent
group name for historians.
Speaker 3 (10:55):
What was it?
Speaker 4 (10:55):
No, it was an argumentation of his.
Speaker 2 (10:58):
My idea that was the author.
Speaker 3 (10:59):
I yeah, no, it's good.
Speaker 6 (11:02):
I mean again, it's all about perspective. And as we've
started to see much more and more in these days,
it starts to feel a little more nineteen eighty fourish
by the day in terms of like what is objective
truth that at some point leaves perspective behind entirely and
it becomes just like which fabrication have you decided to
throw your lot in with?
Speaker 2 (11:23):
You know?
Speaker 4 (11:24):
So maybe on that note, maybe you can help us out.
Fellow conspiracy realist, what is the correct group name for
some Wagner boys? Is it a mutiny of Wagner's? I
don't think old VP would like that one. Let's give
you the official story of what happens. According to Russia's
(11:47):
Emergency Ministry, Progolsion and company die in an airplane crash
on August twenty third, twenty twenty three. We did a
strange news piece immediately after. He was in a relatively
small plane and rooted from Moscow to Saint Petersburg. There
were only ten people on the plane, seven Wagner, two pilots,
(12:10):
one flight attendant. Because there's always an innocent bystander.
Speaker 3 (12:14):
And like right off the rip.
Speaker 6 (12:15):
We even have you know, opposing versions of the stories
to that, some people saying it didn't make sense for
him to be back on the way to Saint Petersburg.
His interests were in Africa, you know, he like and
there was I believe an incident in the past where
a plane went down that he was on the manifest for.
But then he turned up, you know, all well and
good later. So this is like, these are tactics. There's
(12:38):
reason to disbelieve the official narrative. Not to mention the
fact that we're never going to see an independent investigation
of any of this stuff. You know, folks with the
Russian government have said that they've done DNA right, DNA
samples or whatever kind of irol.
Speaker 2 (12:57):
You know, well, it's so weird because we're going to
get into this guys. But just to point out there
you may have seen as you're listening to this, if
you're searching through there are reports of him showing up
other places in the world alive today as we're recording
this episode. So just like Tupac, it's so similar. Yeah,
(13:18):
let's keep going.
Speaker 6 (13:18):
I guess the point here just to put like a
little bow on it. I guess is that when you
have a government that is inherently siloing information, just by
their very nature, it makes these kinds of conspiracy theories.
Speaker 3 (13:32):
It gives them a lot more air, a lot more
room to grow and breathe. Yeah, I think, yeah, agreed.
Speaker 4 (13:39):
Our So we saw that everyone in the world, every
credible source in the world, assumed this aircraft accident was
not a random malfunction. Initial reports claimed that the plane
was shot down by Russian air defense, and that came
from Wagner itself. Western intelligence later looked at this and said,
(14:03):
they probably weren't shot down because we sort of, you know,
follow the missiles. They said, there was an explosion aboard
the craft, and to your point, Pregosion is a sneaky,
sneaky boy, or he was. He is a little rascal.
So a lot of credible analysts thought it would be
(14:24):
possible or not outside of the realm of possibility, that
he had faked his own demise, and later the Russian
government did appear to confirm his death through genetic testing.
They claimed that according to their forensics, the identities of
all ten people on the craft had been established and
all ten of them corresponded to someone published on the
(14:47):
flight manifest So the next question is who ordered this explosion?
We mentioned this earlier.
Speaker 3 (14:54):
I love this.
Speaker 4 (14:54):
I think you should leave now. A hot dog car
crashes through the store. There's a guy in a hot
dog costume saying it could be any one of us.
Speaker 2 (15:03):
We gotta find out who did this.
Speaker 6 (15:05):
So well, you know, and and to your point, been
with that clip that you play where Putin just kind
of casually drops a tiny little mention of this incident.
There are some in the media, you know, or analysts,
I guess, especially because there's quite a few Russian journalists
who maybe don't quite toe the party line, who have
(15:26):
actually been exiled and like live in Germany.
Speaker 3 (15:28):
And I'm kind of so I should have written down
the names.
Speaker 6 (15:30):
But I saw some interviews with a few of them
who were saying that is an example of Putin basically
saying yeah I did this without saying yeah I did this,
and that it's his way of like he does this
kind of stuff all the time while not openly acknowledging
it or admitting it. He kind of wants people to
think he did it, even if maybe they didn't find
his body it's in his best interest to think that
(15:52):
they for people to think that he did it.
Speaker 2 (15:54):
Yeah, anything that makes him scarier, right, not only to
the to his enemies, but to people who have to
follow orders from him, that's probably a great thing for him,
or at least he perceives it as such. And you know, oh, man,
I had a whole point about this, Oh, Pregosian didn't
just have enemies in Russia, even though he was pretty
(16:14):
much fighting for them. He had enemies, you know, in
Ukraine and all of the people who are allied to
defend Ukraine now all the NATO countries in the US.
Speaker 6 (16:25):
So, I mean, a soldier of fortune is not someone
who's exactly known for their you know, stand up attitude
and then like and steadfastness. You know, there's someone who
will basically work for whoever is the highest bidder in
exchange for cash, capital assets. You know, I mean, this
is not someone that cares about making friends.
Speaker 3 (16:45):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (16:46):
Also, sof doesn't have a very long shelf life, you
know what I mean. So it's like, right now, the
current running theories for the demise of Progosion are a
direct order from Latimir Putin. Possible third party leveraging the chaos.
To your point, Matt, this would be ah, this would
(17:09):
be an opportunity or an act by one of Bragosian's many,
many internal enemies. The thing that gallows humor here, the
thing that is amazing and cracks me up right now,
is that absolutely no one is pretending it was an accident.
Everyone is in who done it mode automatically.
Speaker 6 (17:30):
There's no way the time, it just doesn't know, there's
no But also not to mention, and I can't remember
if we mentioned this quite yet. Everybody else that was
on that plane, besides the unfortunate presence of the flight attendant,
they were all high ups in the organization too, So
it was like a kind of a one shot kill
for like some serious muscle in terms of leadership in Wagner.
Speaker 2 (17:54):
But this is why it's the perfect thing, guys, because
it is it is plausible that a plane crashes. That happens.
Planes crash, they do, small private planes do crash.
Speaker 6 (18:07):
Coincidences, though, man, they're never they're never coincidences.
Speaker 2 (18:12):
I know, but that but that's the the messed up
perfect thing. What are we going to do about it?
What is anybody gonna do about it? Planes crash man,
what are you going to do?
Speaker 3 (18:21):
Yeah, I believe you. Know.
Speaker 6 (18:24):
They were saying it was too high to have been
shot down by like a shoulder mounted weapon of some kind,
like a like a rocket launcher or something. It could
have been what you were saying, been some kind of
anti aircraft situation, But I think the prevailing theory might
be that it.
Speaker 3 (18:37):
Was some sort of device on the plane itself.
Speaker 2 (18:40):
Right.
Speaker 4 (18:40):
Yeah, the West is thinking on board explosive sabotage, right,
which means the timer was either activated in the air,
remotely activated, or the time the clock started ticking around
left off, all three of which are plausible, or we
(19:01):
got ourselves a gremlin situation.
Speaker 2 (19:03):
Well, maybe could have been a gremlin on the plane.
But do you guys remember back in April in Strange
News we talked about a Russian vlagger that was killed
while in a wasn't it a Wagner bar or something,
and a woman brought in an explosive device, edit it
(19:24):
to the guy and it ended up exploding and killing him.
Speaker 3 (19:27):
Mm hmmm.
Speaker 2 (19:28):
That was in Saint Petersburg.
Speaker 4 (19:29):
Well, no one's gonna accuse human forces of creativity nor originality,
but the like this is where we're at, you know,
and that's an excellent precedent to set there, Matt. There
you have it, folks. The head of an enormously dangerous,
at times rogue mercenary military force just left the big
(19:50):
chess board. But all the soldiers remain. After the leader's demise,
what happens to them, you know, what will become of
Russi Army. It's kind of like asking what happens to
Coca Cola when all the people with the secret recipe
ride the same plane and die. We're gonna pause for
a word from our sponsors and then we'll dive in.
Speaker 3 (20:18):
Here's where it gets crazy.
Speaker 4 (20:20):
Yes, the Wagner folks, the name brand might change, but
they're still going to be around. Armies are a lot
like a snowball, a lot like an avalanche. There's an inertia.
Speaker 3 (20:33):
Right.
Speaker 4 (20:33):
Once something gets going, it is incredibly difficult to stop it.
You can change the name, right, Oh no, now we're Constellis.
We're so different, Now we're Infinity whatever. But you can
cut off the head, you can fire or kill the leadership.
You can make all sorts of you know, little paperwork
laws restricting saying the name. But you cannot unteach the skills.
(20:58):
You cannot remove the experience. It is incredibly difficult, virtually
impossible to keep an eye on every small group or
loan operator that sets up shop afterwards.
Speaker 2 (21:11):
Dude, I was just reading about again the coups in Africa,
and we talked about that recently, and just about the
splitting of militaries in several African countries. I think it
was Niger I want to say, yeah, it was specifically
I was reading about. Oh, I don't think it was,
(21:32):
but it was a it was a recent coup where
it was two factions of the military itself that split apart,
and there were two leaders. One of them is running
like a special forces kind of group and then the
other one is the official you know, military of the
country's leader, and they are the two factions that are
fighting each other. And so it just it's reminded me
(21:53):
of that bend where as you're saying, like, once you
once you create a military group that is cohesive and together,
there it is gonna stick around.
Speaker 4 (22:02):
Yeah, I mean you can't. You can't unteach goria tactics,
you know what I mean, people are gonna remember it.
Uh And and Matt to your point, I I need
to bone up on this. It could be Niger, it
could be uh Mali, it could be a number of
other countries. It's pretty pretty deep water at this point.
Speaker 2 (22:24):
There were so many Oh maybe it was Chad, I
can't remember.
Speaker 3 (22:28):
It's always chad Man. There's Chad's chadding around.
Speaker 4 (22:32):
There's there's also a strong sense to this point that
Vladimir Putin, the Putin administration wants some version of Wagner,
indeed needs some version of Wagner. We have to remember
they exist to give the Russian state plausible deniability. The
need for that does not dissipate just because seven guys
(22:56):
are dead.
Speaker 6 (22:57):
Well, but it does give you a vacuum that you
can then fill yourself with your handpicked successors. Because while
it might not be an extension, well, it is an
extension of the government. Why it might not be a
direct wing of the government or branch, there's influence there.
There's got to be friendlies within the organization, you know.
And maybe this is just Putin rooting out the folks
(23:20):
that were starting to kind of buck on him a
little bit. And now he's got the ability to insert
the people into the situation that he wants to make
them back to being his little pet army again quite possibly.
Speaker 4 (23:31):
You know that's I'm glad you're bringing that up, because
now there are several options on the table. One Russia
attempts to completely dismantle Wagner. It's possible in a legal sense,
it's far less likely in practice, to your point that,
given Wagner's entrenched established rules in the African theater. And
(23:53):
then the second one Russia attempts to co opt to
digest Wagner. Right, let's get rid of the guys who
are being a little too loud, and let's absorb the
rest of the operation in the Ministry of Defense. And
this was something that Progulsion was fighting for quite some time.
One of his big internal rivals was a guy named
(24:14):
Sergi Shoigu, who is or Shoiku we are not native
Russian speakers. He was He's the big guy, the Grand
Puba of the Defense Ministry or Ministry of Defense. And
those guys hated each other because they were always trying.
They were always like pissing on each other's fire hydrants. Basically,
it's not what fire hydrants are for. You know, They're
(24:36):
related to liquid one way or the other.
Speaker 3 (24:38):
They're either getting his daughter, they're shooting stuff out. No,
it's true. Isn't that weird?
Speaker 6 (24:42):
Though you think about it, like why is that? Never mind,
we can conversation for another day.
Speaker 4 (24:48):
So they're mainly their main use now is to establish
whether or not you are a robot online. I think
just recones that wheels.
Speaker 3 (24:57):
And motorcycles or whatever. Doors.
Speaker 4 (25:01):
Yeah, but there's a there's a third option, which I
think would be ideal for the Kremlin. It's to keep
Wagner overall what you can save of it as the
same thing like get new leadership.
Speaker 6 (25:16):
Oh yeah, by the way, Ben, it just occurred to
me if there were a Gremlin play, it would be
a Kremlin Gremlin perfect.
Speaker 3 (25:23):
I'm just perfect.
Speaker 2 (25:25):
I can't even know.
Speaker 3 (25:27):
You have to we agree.
Speaker 4 (25:31):
We agreed to yes and each other a long time ago.
Speaker 2 (25:34):
You're right, you're right, Bye, bad bye, bad dude.
Speaker 6 (25:36):
Really quickly, I went and saw a comedy show the
other night with Brett Gellman, who plays the conspiracy Yeah. Yeah,
and his solo thing was really good. Like his show
that he did, I won't spoil it, but he wasn't
very good at yes ending. He was really into like
shutting people down and maybe it was kind of his style,
but it made me really uncomfortable. That is, like, I
(25:57):
hadn't been to an improv show in a while. They
did like half of the shows improv, and he would
just be like, no, that's not how this is gonna go.
It's gonna go like this, even when reacts, you know,
you know, a full disclosure.
Speaker 4 (26:09):
I know those guys, even with even with my buddy Kevin, I.
Speaker 3 (26:12):
Think Kevin was the main dude.
Speaker 6 (26:13):
And then there was Amber from from Archer, who was great.
Everyone was great, and and Bratt was funny. But I
just found that it was sort of like, I'm gonna
do improv a little bit different.
Speaker 4 (26:26):
Welcome to the school of no.
Speaker 2 (26:28):
But yes, sorry.
Speaker 4 (26:32):
Bruske Bien, you have Devney Progosia school of improv. He's
not exactly dull close. So there's there's this idea that
you could change the leadership, keep the experience right, keep
the Hoy paloy, keep the infantry, the rank and file.
But if you look at the boffins in these various
(26:53):
Western think tanks, they feel this is possible but unlikely. Instead,
there's another mergent option, and it's got that kind of
new car smell. Why not just engage another Russian based
private military corporation or company, just change the brand name,
but just put them into the same job position, the
(27:16):
same day to day operations. You know, be like, hey,
this used to be you know what, I'll take the potshots.
This used to be Comcast, but now it's Exfinity. Don't worry,
We're still in charge of the coup.
Speaker 6 (27:30):
So there are enough of these outfits around to just
do the old switcheroo.
Speaker 2 (27:34):
Well, no, you just create one, right, But that's what
Ben's saying, like, you go, oh, here's the new thing.
Speaker 3 (27:39):
Wait, wait, create them from what though?
Speaker 6 (27:42):
Obviously you need this organization because of their manpower and
because of their whatever.
Speaker 3 (27:47):
Right.
Speaker 2 (27:47):
Well maybe I'm wrong, but Ben, I think that's what
you're saying. You create the corporate entity, right because all
that takes is a bank and an address and a
couple other things.
Speaker 3 (27:58):
Then you staff it with your own So take.
Speaker 2 (28:00):
This the Wagner staff.
Speaker 3 (28:02):
All you shuffle them around.
Speaker 2 (28:04):
You guys are gone. We're dissolving this company now. Everybody
walk over here. Okay, now stand here, take this corporate
t shirt.
Speaker 6 (28:10):
But Ben, to your Kurt's Judge kind of point earlier,
Wasn't there a lot of fear and loyalty within the
Wagner organization like that? Isn't that how he got them
to march with him against the country that they're supposedly protecting.
I just have a hard time believing that all of
those people, without certain dispensations, you know, would just like
(28:33):
do what you're saying.
Speaker 3 (28:34):
Maybe I'm honest.
Speaker 4 (28:35):
I think we're all right, We're all correct in looking
at this. What we need to understand is in this
sort of bloody business, they're always going to be men
like this, They're always going to be forces. There will
always be an alternative, right if the first one doesn't
work out. To your point, Noel, and to your point, Matt,
(28:57):
there will always be the opportunity unity to do. You know,
the military version of a new LLC. Just walk across
the street. We got a different office. Give us fifteen
minutes to see some new badges on the uniform I
was looking into now. Think tanks are really not something
(29:19):
you should trust. Shout out to our pal Jake, and
shout out to our good friend Robert Evans. A lot
of think tanks, unfortunately have dirty money or agendas supporting them,
and with that being said, if you understand that lens,
then we can understand that they are doing very good work.
They are very very intelligent people. And so I cast
(29:41):
no dispersion on some of the folks who were quoting
Kendall Taylor, Andrew or Andrea. Kendall Taylor is a Russian
intelligence expert at the Washington based Center for New American Security,
and say what you want about CNAs. This person. She
is legit, she's on the money, and she's sharp, and
(30:02):
she says she thinks that what's going to happen is
parts of Wagner are going to be folded in under
the existing Russian structure in some way, and they're going
to be sort of sold off there. They're no longer
going to be one concentrated thing. They're just going to
be a bunch of subcontractors, which also makes them more
(30:24):
difficult to erase.
Speaker 6 (30:26):
But Benmus, I must come back to my previous question.
Are there are there like a bunch of these types
of operations just ready to to hop too again?
Speaker 4 (30:37):
Yes, there there will always be men for this sort
of job, you know. And it's a good question. It's
a disturbing question. More people should ask more often. Our
expert that we mentioned earlier, Kendall Taylor. She notes that
Russia is going to continue to use pmc's private military
(30:59):
contract the United States is going to continue to mess
with Halliburn. They're just going to be spread about in
different ways. Like if you the best way to say
it is the evil way to say it is if
you run a shady mercenary army. It's a great time
to put in an application to Russia. Just find Vladimir
(31:21):
Putin on LinkedIn and say, hey, Bud, sorry about the planes.
I got some stuff going on. This is the kind
of thing that keeps Eric Prince, the owner of Academi
Wait Exy, Wait, Blackwater Wait constellis awake at nights salivating
government contracts. We've got to go to the La Times.
(31:42):
They have a great exploration of this, and Noel, I
think this speaks directly to the point that you're raising.
Speaker 3 (31:50):
Yeah, I think it does.
Speaker 6 (31:51):
Ben. In this piece, they speak to a Ukrainian open
source intelligence company whose business it is to track these
types of organizations, and shockingly, I guess, at least to me,
they tracked thirty seven of these types of contractors.
Speaker 3 (32:09):
And I guess my question really was I mean, I totally.
Speaker 6 (32:11):
See what you mean about there will always be men
that will do stuff like this, but will there be
like hundreds of them, thousands of them under a single banner?
Speaker 3 (32:20):
You know what I mean?
Speaker 6 (32:21):
Because that to me seemed like what the benefit of
Wagner was was that they were all this like, you know,
army of scale that could be bought and paid and
paid for. It makes me think of like stuff from like,
you know, the Golden what are they called in Game
of Thrones? There was like a whole mercenary army that
they hired that was literally a massive army of the
(32:41):
scale of like the kind of army a country would have.
Speaker 4 (32:44):
Yeah. Absolutely, raise a very good point there, man, because
we're thinking about the Golden Company.
Speaker 3 (32:52):
That's a Golden company.
Speaker 4 (32:54):
Yeah, and they were sort of the Wagner of that story.
The issue is exactly what you describe economy of scale.
If you look at it now, there are two outfits
that are closer to being the next Wagner. One is
called Convoy sadly not affiliated with the amazing song by C. W. McCall.
(33:19):
Can we even can we play a clip?
Speaker 3 (33:21):
Shortly? Isn't there a movie?
Speaker 6 (33:23):
Too?
Speaker 3 (33:24):
Is called Convoy. It's drug drivers.
Speaker 4 (33:28):
So so just so Matt Nolan and I and and
you played along home, fellow conspiracy realist can vibe with this.
We're gonna play just a short clip of Convoy.
Speaker 2 (33:41):
A breaker one nine this year as a rubber duck.
Speaker 3 (33:44):
You've got a copy on the fan, come on, oh yeah, Convoy.
The song is from Convoy the movie.
Speaker 6 (33:51):
So that's pregosia I am for good, buddy, dude. The
the poster of Convoy is so horny, it's like just
just ripped Chris Kristofferson getting felt real nice and.
Speaker 3 (34:07):
Good by his lady co star for the film. Yeah,
for the film.
Speaker 6 (34:12):
But it's also one of those like hand drawn kind
of Indiana Jones type posters.
Speaker 4 (34:17):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (34:17):
So it just has like extra drama.
Speaker 6 (34:19):
It honestly looks like the cover of like a dime
store kind of romance novel.
Speaker 4 (34:22):
Little Steamy, Yeah, little little Lurid.
Speaker 3 (34:26):
Indeed. Yeah.
Speaker 4 (34:27):
Convoy, the private military contractor is pretty young. It was
established late last year by a guy named Sergi Askyonov,
the head of the head of the Interim attempt at
Russian Governance in Crimea. At Crimea and Putin's administration took
(34:51):
over that that bit of land back in twenty fourteen.
Convoy is right now. Convoy is the suited to replace Wagner.
It's run by a guy who used to hang with Pregosian,
a guy named Konstantine Piccolov. So we got the experience
(35:12):
and that's not the only thing that's right.
Speaker 6 (35:15):
Convoy since forming has received quite.
Speaker 3 (35:18):
A bit of capital in the form of donations. Sure.
Speaker 6 (35:24):
Yeah, the quotation fingers and donations right untrackable. People are
getting something from their donations, maybe trackable, but the intention,
I believe is something a little underhanded here, if I'm
not mistaken.
Speaker 4 (35:41):
Is it a donation or is it an investment? A
lot of those donations to our sound effect, they came
from a bank called VTB, which is mostly owned by
the Russian state, and they came from an oligarch in
Putin's new network guy named Rutenberg. So we've got second
(36:04):
the connections. If you want to learn more about these connections,
check out, of course sad olagark by er pal Jake,
and check out the Dossier Center, which tracks what they
see as criminal activity and network associations for the Kremlin. However,
there is a PEPSI for every Coca Cola, and if
(36:25):
convoys are Coca Cola, then the Pepsi here is an
outfit called Reduced m hmm.
Speaker 6 (36:33):
Yeah, there's a great article you found in the Eurasian
Times talking about how you know, Wagner is out, Redout
is in or redo, however you want to pronounce it.
You know, they're filling that vacuum as a power vacuum.
I mean, I'm from the moment there was news of
the demise that suppose I'm still not convinced the demise
of Pregosian. Any of these burgeoning military you know, extra
(36:58):
military organizations must have been just champ at the bit.
Speaker 4 (37:01):
Yeah, well, put man because Reduct or Pepsi in the conversation,
was involved in action protecting Russian interest in Syria. They're
also one of the first forces on the ground in
the twenty twenty two Ukraine invasion. There's an immediate problem
that arises. Both of these groups, Convoy and Redout. They
(37:24):
are tiny, infinitesimal in comparison to Wagner, and Wagner itself
pretty small, you know. It's like, at the at the
craziest estimate, Wagner is like fifty thousand operators.
Speaker 3 (37:39):
That's a lot.
Speaker 6 (37:41):
But what are we talking for, reduct Ben, do you
have a sense from maybe some of these fractionally sized organizations.
Speaker 4 (37:49):
Yeah, it's thirty seven guys, serious, No, no, because I
was in my mind.
Speaker 6 (37:54):
It could mean a lot of things. It could mean
the size of like a really high quality strike force.
Are like swat team.
Speaker 4 (38:02):
Yeah they're, but we're talking bigger than that, right, Yeah, hundreds, Yeah,
they're they're bigger. They're in the thousands, both of them,
but they're they're not in the fifty thousand range. And
you know, unless there's some mercenary version of a merger acquisition.
These groups also, no matter how many people they have,
(38:22):
they don't have the same field experience you find in Wagner.
Speaker 3 (38:27):
They don't have the.
Speaker 4 (38:28):
People who have shut down puppet governments right or instituted
their own. Wagner can go toe to toe with France
in Africa, which is nuts.
Speaker 3 (38:42):
That is much more Golden Company style.
Speaker 6 (38:45):
And Ben, I don't think we've mentioned this in this episode,
but I know that we have in the past. That
one tactic that you know, you know, we talked about
how pregosion really is kind of a culture personality or
was a culti personality. So there's some loyalty to him,
least of all because he got some folks out of
some prison sentences in order, you know, for like a
(39:06):
lighter sentence or like a furlough or something if you
fight for his group. Surely these other smaller groups can't
offer quite the same unless again, maybe the goal with
the Putin is to combine them, rebrand them, and then
do some of the same stuff that Pregosian was doing
off books.
Speaker 4 (39:23):
Oh yeah, man, And it makes sense logically. Pregoshon is
exceptional because he built Wagner by gathering more than three
hundred different private companies together Convoy and REDDA. They cannot
say that that's part of why Wagner became as much
(39:44):
of a cult as it was a mercenary group at
the end. And one thing is for sure, the need
for something like Wagner exists for the Russian government, which
means that need will be satisfied one way or the
other by hook or by crooks. So with this in mind,
the ultimate analysis is the Kremlin will move quickly to
(40:06):
contain and stabilize a leader to lists Wagner, and that
is fragmenting balkanizing. As we record this containment to your point, Noal,
whatever form it takes, it will one hundred percent aim
to maintain business as usual, force projection, resource extraction, running
the coups.
Speaker 3 (40:27):
And I guess the thing that keeps sticking in the
back of my mind is like.
Speaker 6 (40:32):
If Russia is so contained and they kind of answer
to no one, barely acknowledge the international community, you know,
accept as interlopers on what is theirs? Why do they
need that's plausible deniability so much? Is it just in
the face of like international courts and war crimes and stuff,
or when they're poking their nose in places that don't
(40:54):
belong to them and stealing resources on behalf of Russia.
Russia can basically say, well, I don't know anying about that,
we didn't do that. But at the same time Putin
has said openly, you mentioned at the beginning of the
show that they're really good at stealing other people's stuff.
So why the plausible deniability?
Speaker 4 (41:10):
It's an interesting question because at some point does this
not seem like.
Speaker 3 (41:15):
A fig leaf?
Speaker 4 (41:16):
What would you if you were the president of the
United States? What would you say if it turned out
that you were not only engaging mercenaries to commit war crimes,
but you were also taking people out of your prison
system and putting them in the field. This is a question.
(41:38):
It's a difficult question to answer. I think we pause
for a word from our sponsor for a moment, and
then we return and talk about a very interesting point.
You brought up nol a convict army.
Speaker 3 (41:57):
And we're back, Ben, Let's get right to it.
Speaker 6 (42:00):
What a what a way to attract loyal followers, loyal
militants into your group who potentially maybe have some street
fighting skills by legally busting them out of jail or
prison right ilegally quotation fingers Again, a lot.
Speaker 3 (42:20):
Of black box stuff going on in this part of
the world, you know what I mean.
Speaker 4 (42:23):
Yeah, if you make the laws, you decide what is legal.
It was a huge hit for Western propaganda, the idea
that Russian convicts even those who committed egregious violent crimes.
We're talking sexual assault, murders, you know, crimes against children.
Not to be too explicit, those folks were given plea deals,
(42:47):
the rumor went, in exchange for joining Wagner not to
be trained as operators, but to function as canon fodder.
And it turned out this was absolutely true, and as
a result, you know, when Wagner dissolves, this leads to
a situation where in thousands of criminals are cut loose.
(43:11):
To your earlier point, man about nineteen eighty four, this
is what Winston Smith would call double plus un good.
But it's still like thousands, thousands monstrous people roaming free
as a bird. But that's still is less less of
a threat than the larger instability issues facing the Russian
(43:36):
state and therefore the world very soon.
Speaker 3 (43:39):
Yeah, well, I mean, you know a lot of analysts.
Speaker 6 (43:42):
That I've been listening to and reading think that this
is all kind of a sign of Russia's ultimate weakness.
That the reason that Wagner did what they did, or
the Progosian defected in the way he did, was because
he lost faith in the operation. He lost faith in Putin,
(44:03):
and he thinks Putin is no longer acting in the
best interest of the country. But again, it's you know,
it's really hard to nail down the motivations of a mercenary,
you know what I mean. He's not acting on some
sort of like you know, taking a stand for what's
right exactly. He's just basically saying the winds have shifted,
you know, we are here to get paid and make
(44:25):
sure that we have the stuff we need. We think
maybe Putin's not the guy to do that anymore, or something.
Speaker 3 (44:30):
I don't know, but.
Speaker 6 (44:31):
There is a lot of questioning about whether Putin's kind
of grasp is slipping.
Speaker 4 (44:37):
Right, allegations of dementia, allegations of possible terminal deteriorating nervous
system conditions right. Also in Progosion, I think we see
a real life version of a Colonel Kurtz, you know,
for fans a Heart of Darkness, or for people who
(44:58):
watch Apocalypse Now. The thing about Kurtz is that he
becomes a personification of war. He doesn't really want the
war to end, right, And you could say the same
about Pregosian, Like to your point, Noe, what are the
guy's ultimate aims?
Speaker 5 (45:16):
What were they?
Speaker 3 (45:17):
You know?
Speaker 4 (45:18):
Did he want a peaceful, happy world? Did he want
the blood and treasure and the experience of chasing that?
It's a scary thing. The big I guess, from Wagner's
perspective and from the Russian perspective, their big moment in
the sun was the taking of Bakhmut the city in Ukraine,
(45:39):
in eastern Ukraine. And unfortunately, even if you erase Wagner
from the board, the war in Ukraine will continue. The
Putin administration is definitely scrambling to try to maintain their
grip on various resources on the African continent and in
(45:59):
the Middle East. But even without Wagner, they still have
enough capability to continue this conflict. But their capabilities are finite.
Russia is a collapse state. It is a kleptocracy. That's
a problem.
Speaker 3 (46:18):
You know.
Speaker 4 (46:18):
You would think maybe that if you are not Russia,
or if you were opposed to Russia, it'd be very
good for that state to collapse. It would mean you
win the game. But the problem is, because Russia has
never hesitated to pay blood for treasure, it still has
one more move to pool, a very dangerous move, because
(46:41):
Russia is a nuclear capable state.
Speaker 3 (46:45):
Yeah, that's right, I mean, I was.
Speaker 6 (46:49):
I heard some stats recently about like the amount of
certain military gear that they possess in terms of tanks
and ships and whatever, and it's pretty negligible, like compare
to what the US and NATO and all that stuff has,
Like it really pales in comparison. Uh, that's also partially
probably another reason why they need to beef up their
military support with hiring these types of groups. But what
(47:13):
what does change the calculation entirely is their arsenal of
nuclear weapons, their their nuclear submarines, and their ability to
hit most of Europe directly from where.
Speaker 3 (47:26):
They are, you know, exactly. Yeah, it's a big deal.
Speaker 6 (47:29):
I mean, like, you know, I went to Berlin a
couple of years, it's been almost two years now, and
a member of our party who was going to go
it was right when the Ukrainian War started, and they
opted not to come because there is that wild card
loose cannon energy around putin that he would do some
wild like that, and he said it what do they
(47:52):
call it, ben saber rattling, you know, that kind of stuff.
And that's that's the piece that he possesses the ability
to continue to leverage all this stuff, is that they
have the nukes.
Speaker 4 (48:03):
Oh well, you know, that reminds me of that old
Rby's commercial, We.
Speaker 3 (48:08):
Have the nukes.
Speaker 4 (48:09):
Yeah, yeah, where's the beef for Wendy's.
Speaker 2 (48:12):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (48:12):
So that's that's the big elephant in the room right
of the globe, which is could there be a nuclear exchange.
The three biggest powers in the world geopolitically right now
are what we could call the Russian Crew, which would
(48:33):
be Iran, Syria, North Korea, deeprk maybe Venezuela if you
want to put that in, and then there would be
the West, NATO, the US couple others. They're they're trying
to hit on India real hard, we'll see how it
works out. And then the third beat China, you know,
bricks on bricks on bricks. These three primary powers, to
(48:55):
be very clear with everyone, save you some time if
you ever want to study international affairs in college, is
what you need to know. Those three primary world powers
are right now all run by pretty elderly, pretty wild
ass dudes. They do not give up.
Speaker 6 (49:13):
Yeah, same kind of I mean, you know, I would
count Progosian as one of those elderly, wild ass dudes
who is just.
Speaker 3 (49:21):
Larger than life, you know. I mean, you don't get into.
Speaker 6 (49:24):
That business of death dealing, you know, unless you've got
I don't know, man, you got something going on, you know.
I mean, these are people that have been part of
the kinds of secret operations that maybe the KGB would
have been involved in. You know, people that have served
(49:44):
in a very different way from what we may think
of as military service.
Speaker 3 (49:48):
You know here in the United States, would I would think,
you know.
Speaker 6 (49:53):
Not not to say that the United States military service
and like, you know, we do some dirt too, no
question about it. But you know, we know what the
KGB gets up to. I mean, they're notoriously ruthless. And
I would assume that a regime run by the former
head of the KGB is going to deploy some of
those types of tricks and some of that kind of
(50:13):
ruthless mentality, and then those are the types of people
that are going to gravitate towards a man like that.
Speaker 4 (50:19):
Yeah, very well said. You know, while while these three
large categories of powers are not adverse to a little
enemy of my enemy as my friend action, those relationships
are the equivalent of one night stands. Both China and
the United States know that they will get a big
(50:40):
win if Russia falls, and Russia knows that they know that,
So it's super awkward. That's why if you dig just
a bit, you'll see some strange bedfellows situations. We were
talking about this, Matt Noel and I were talking about
this off air a little while back, the US just
(51:00):
specifically warned North Korea not to aid Russia, and uh,
the leader of North Korea or d p r K
is is about to visit Vladimir Putin in person and
talk about working together and then Russia for their side.
They specifically warned Uncle Sam not to bring nukes over
(51:20):
to the United Kingdom, which means it's time for old
Who's who's in charge of that place? Now?
Speaker 3 (51:26):
Who's it's the king?
Speaker 4 (51:27):
Right?
Speaker 6 (51:28):
I guess too much stuff going on over here to
keep tracking those those Brits. But yeah, Kim, you know
that seems fine, right, Putin and Kim together again.
Speaker 4 (51:41):
Yeah, they're just watching Police Academy like we do.
Speaker 6 (51:46):
Match made and fascist heaven there it is. I mean,
really they they hurt each other.
Speaker 3 (51:51):
I mean, I mean seriously, that just sounds terrifying.
Speaker 6 (51:54):
That sounds double plus plus triple plus un good bad bad,
not good.
Speaker 4 (52:00):
Yeah, Like, think about this. What does all this show us?
It shows us when we look at these conspiracies, which
are not theories for the most part, When we look
at these conspiracies, it teaches us that the post Wagner
world is not going to be much different. At first,
There's one counterintuitive puzzle piece. Russia losing its Halliburton escalates
(52:23):
the danger for the continuation of the Russian state, and
when the Russian state feels endangered, it is increasingly likely
to consider some moves that would otherwise not be seriously considered.
Speaker 6 (52:38):
You know, well, it's also like you have to think
about the state of Putin's mind and how he views
his legacy, and is he the kind of guy that,
knowing that he's on the way out, why not just
hit the big red button.
Speaker 3 (52:55):
You know what I mean?
Speaker 2 (52:56):
Oh, dude, he's totally going to hit that button.
Speaker 4 (52:58):
You think, so not a wonder.
Speaker 3 (53:00):
I don't know.
Speaker 6 (53:01):
I mean, I wonder, you know, I mean, it scares me.
You're right, it's scary, But also it makes me think
what we do know. It would appear that this whole
situation with Wagner it was legit, and it was as
a result of people in high up, people in that
(53:22):
organization thinking that what Putin was doing wasn't good and
was no longer serving their interests. I have a hard
time believing these smaller organizations won't feel similarly. But they
also might just look at it as an opportunity to
become something larger than what they are and therefore be
like yes, daddy all day long.
Speaker 4 (53:40):
Sure, perhaps until they find a new, higher paying daddy.
The way that the way that this kind of stuff works,
like the honest conspiracy realist perspective on a rush of
face with an existential threat and the likelihood of using nukes.
(54:01):
It's not publicized as Vladimir Putin pushing you know, a
cartoon cartoon button or picking up a red landline phone
and saying dah or whatever. It's more like the right right,
you know, tell them there are no car washes in
(54:22):
Crimea or whatever. Instead it's it's a quote unquote totally
not associated with Russia, private military contractor that somehow quote
unquote illegally acquires a low yield nuclear device, you know,
kind of like a bunker buster. And then Russia again
(54:42):
is the guy in the hot dog costume going, we
have to find who's responsible for this, or you could
have a proxy force on the outside of the global
order already Think up Yongyang, think that's a rod and
they rain fire. In the case of North Korea, maybe
it comes from their newly minted apparently nuclear capable submarine.
(55:06):
And the entire time that stuff happens, if it ever happens,
and let's hope it does it the entire time that happens.
The Russian state officially can sound like that old Shaggy song.
Do you guys remember that Shaggy on.
Speaker 6 (55:21):
There banging in the shower, all over the place, all over,
all over the apartment table.
Speaker 4 (55:27):
It wasn't him, though they were both.
Speaker 6 (55:29):
Button naked and bang banging on the bathroom floor. It's
a real catchy bop. You almost have to like sing
the whole thing in your head. The best part is that,
Oh good.
Speaker 2 (55:41):
The workaholics guys made a movie where he shows up
and I think he was gonna have to sing that song.
I think it was Shaggy. It's pretty great.
Speaker 4 (55:48):
Former marine by the way.
Speaker 2 (55:50):
Yes, guys, it's sorry for being asked and jumping back in.
But like we've never faced let me rephrase this, since
the Cold War right and the tensions occurring there, we've
never had a global superpower facing a seriously existential annihilating
threat right to where they are backed. Any any force
(56:13):
has been backed into a corner to where they feel like,
if we do not use everything we have, we as
a country will be extinct and I don't think we
are anywhere near that with Russia right now, so hopefully
that situation isn't going to come to fruition anytime soon.
It does feel like I don't know if to me
(56:35):
that feels way off in the distance, like not possible
because humanity will prevail in their thought of humanity needs
to survive even if my country doesn't. Kind of thing.
I really hope, I really really hope that's the situation
where I.
Speaker 6 (56:49):
Just think Putin's big enough of an a whole to
not think like that, especially if you know with the
the the unilateral nature of his power, you know that
he's bestowed upon himself and the ability for him not
to have to get sign off from others, that if
he did have some sort of mental you know, breakdown
(57:09):
or deterioration, that's something very very scary could happen. I mean,
I'm not trying to freak anybody out. I'm just I
think about this. You know it does. But I agree
with you, Matt. You know that it's certainly not as
bad as the Cold War, but in some ways it's
scarier because this is a person at the end of
his life or at the end of his legacy who
really wants to make an impact.
Speaker 4 (57:29):
It reminds me a little bit of the Automan Empire.
Thank goodness, you guys remember back in the day, Like,
thank goodness, they did not have nuclear capability. People weren't
really talking about and you expect then. But you're right,
it's not to that point yet. The issue is that
the issue is that the instability escalates. And right now,
(57:54):
as weird as a counterintuitive again as it may sound,
the reality is simply this. There is a solid case
that the chaos Wagner spread during its heyday may well
end up being less dangerous than the chaos spread by
its death throes. And that's not saying that either case
(58:17):
is in any way good. It's just saying there's bad
and then there's worse, or there's worse and then there's
worse and worst, and then you know, dead hand because
Putin woke up with a bad day in a case
of the.
Speaker 6 (58:30):
Craps trippity dippity dubb dub dubs double plus on good bad,
bad bad.
Speaker 4 (58:35):
Quite So, I mean, for now, okay, we have to
do it. It is our want, it is our remit
in this continuing mission, folks, we have to give you
what the Kremlin officially says. They deny any speculation that
they or Vladmir Putin directly ordered Pregosian's death. It's unfortunate
(58:59):
their investigating. That's the official line.
Speaker 3 (59:02):
You know.
Speaker 4 (59:02):
There's some neo Nazis in Ukraine, they say that are
probably responsible, right, because it's a.
Speaker 3 (59:09):
Line from the start, right right, right, Yeah.
Speaker 4 (59:14):
And while the form of Wagner's future role in Ukraine
is still under question, it will continue operations elsewhere in
the Middle East, in the African continent, and those operations,
as balkanized or fragmented as they may become. They are
(59:34):
in frantic communication with the Russian Ministry of Defense. The
names of the war may change, the names of the
chess pieces may evolve.
Speaker 3 (59:42):
Is that a castle?
Speaker 4 (59:43):
Is it a rook? I'll tell you what. They do,
the same thing from Kiev to Moscow, from Bamako to Bangi, Bengi,
if you wish. We can't make any mistake. The great
game continues, and it does so at the expense of
innocent people all around the world. This is our Vagner
up date. You know, if you if you work for
(01:00:05):
Vagner right to us.
Speaker 3 (01:00:07):
Can I just add one little thing.
Speaker 6 (01:00:08):
We talked about this offt of Mike, and I think
it's so fringy that it's almost not worth mentioning, but
I do think it's interesting. There's a guy by the
name of Professor Valerie Solova who has apparently had a
relationship with the Russian media for some time, making some
would say quite outrageous claims, and has been cast as
a bit of a conspiracy nut.
Speaker 3 (01:00:30):
But he has said openly a couple of things.
Speaker 6 (01:00:33):
One that Progosian is in fact not dead but living
on an island in Venezuela called Margarita Island, which is
also where Jimmy Buffett is living. He didn't actually die either.
They're hanging out there together sipin' marks. I'm kidding about
the second bar. It's both probably kidding level. But this
guy's also claimed that Putin is on death's door, like
(01:00:58):
he claims to have supporting docums men saying leaked documents
saying that Putin is so.
Speaker 3 (01:01:03):
Ill that he might not last the year.
Speaker 6 (01:01:08):
So yeah, definitely worth a little bit of rabbit holing
on this guy. Professor Valerie soliv a largely a fringy,
debunked kind of figure, but I didn't think it was interesting.
Speaker 3 (01:01:20):
It came up in a couple spots.
Speaker 2 (01:01:23):
How do you spell that last name?
Speaker 3 (01:01:25):
It is so O l o v e y.
Speaker 4 (01:01:29):
So Again, the most important thing to remember from this episode,
from this update, or two things. If you are affiliated
with Wagner, if you're affiliated with PMCs in general, and
you know what I'm talking about, then do feel free
to write to us. We would love to hear from you. Second, actually,
(01:01:52):
flip it. The most important thing. Innocent people who have
no opportunity to make a choice here, they will suffer
the results of these great powers, of these pretty elderly,
pretty wild ass dudes once again making decisions for their
version of a greater good, however bubbled, attenuated, narrowed that
(01:02:16):
may be. We want to hear from you. Thank you
as always for tuning in and just let us know, like,
let us know what you think the future is here?
You know if you if you have some opinions on
the safety of aircraft, we'd love to hear that too.
We try to be easy to find online.
Speaker 3 (01:02:36):
Correct.
Speaker 6 (01:02:36):
You can find us at the handle conspiracy stuff, where
we exist on x nay, Twitter, x nay, on the intertway.
You can also find us at that handle on Facebook
and on YouTube. That's again conspiracy stuff. We are Conspiracy
Stuff show on Instagram and TikTok.
Speaker 2 (01:02:54):
Hey, do you like using your phone to make calls?
Why not call us? Our number is one eight to
three std WYTK. When you call in, you've got three minutes.
Say whatever you'd like. Just make sure to give yourself
a cool nickname and let us know if we have
permission to use your name and voice on the air.
If you've got more to say than can fit in
that three minutes, why not instead send us a good
(01:03:16):
old fashioned email. We read everything we get.
Speaker 5 (01:03:19):
We are conspiracy at iHeartRadio dot com.
Speaker 2 (01:03:41):
Stuff they don't want you to know is a production
of iHeartRadio. For more podcasts from iHeartRadio, visit the iHeartRadio app,
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Matt Frederick
Ben Bowlin
Noel Brown
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