December 5, 2024 • 58 mins
Gill Alexander, Todd Wishnev (VSiN Contributor), Will Hill (VSiN Contributor), and Dr. Bob Stoll (DrBobSports.com), break down all of the Week 14 NFL betting action! The quartet gives you their best bets of the week, best teaser options, which big favorite is most likely to lose outright, and the game they want no part of.
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Betting on sports can be hard, but hiring Morgan and
Morgan is easy. Morgan and Morgan is America's largest injury
law firm. They have over one hundred offices nationwide and
more than one thousand lawyers. Their fee is free unless
they win. For more information, go to fourth people dot
com slash best bets or dial pound law pound five
to two nine from your cell phone. That's f o
(00:20):
R thepeople dot com slash best bets. This is a
paid advertisement com check it out.
Speaker 2 (00:28):
Man.
Speaker 1 (00:31):
Thursday morning, December fifth, twenty twenty four is the Beating
the Book Podcast Megapod Week fourteen National Football League. It's
Gil Alexander, thanks for joining us. As Todd Wishnev increases
his lead after a three and zero performance last week
on the megapod one and a half game lead. Dodd
Wishnev from his mom's cork Attic in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania at
(00:51):
t wish Nev on Twitter, star of the Showtime docuseriies
action hasn't had a haircut, and I'm gonna guess two
months now, what do you think? Two?
Speaker 3 (01:00):
Once over?
Speaker 4 (01:01):
No over?
Speaker 1 (01:03):
I'm over take the over on that? Okay over? Todd
congratulates on the three and oh, well done, sir, well done,
well done.
Speaker 2 (01:11):
Yes, you got to give the people what they want.
Speaker 1 (01:13):
This this guy, he talks when he's when he's not
supposed to talk. He doesn't talk when he's supposed to talk.
It's just incredible. Okay. Will Hill at not the Will
Hill on Twitter host the should Have Bet More podcast,
also part of Bear Bets at Chris Philka's podcast Empire
at Fox Sports, and of course a staple on this show.
How are you doing? Will Boys?
Speaker 2 (01:33):
What's going on?
Speaker 4 (01:33):
God to see everyone?
Speaker 1 (01:35):
I hate Todd, That's the first thing I want to
get out. My man uh And then our rotating guest,
an annual guest on this show. He is He doesn't
like to be called a pioneer. He's one of the vanguards,
one of the first to UH successfully as a business
predict the outcome of sporting events through predictive modeling. It
is my dear friend Bob Stole. You know him better
as doctor Bob at d R bobsports dot com. Dr
(01:59):
Bob It's on Twitter. I yout a Bob good.
Speaker 3 (02:02):
It's a pleasure to be honest. This is my this
is my sort of off week in college football. There
are not sixty games this week, so it's more more manageable,
uh than any other week of the of the year.
So it's it's it's good to be having a little
bit of sleep this week.
Speaker 1 (02:17):
Yeah, I was going to say this is a UH
and now it gets Now you get to have more
sleep with you know, with the uh with the playoff coming.
There's still bowl games, right, we don't even talk about.
Speaker 3 (02:27):
Yeah we have the bowl games. Aren't sixty games in
one week that I've got to dig into and you know,
So it's it's it's spread out over a month, so
it's more manageable than a regular week of college football,
which is just very taxing, especially with college basketball overlapping.
Speaker 1 (02:42):
Yeah, I'm just I'm just thinking about that just from
a broadcast perspective, like we I haven't even thought about
bowl games usually, I'm like, oh, I got to do
these massive bowl game podcasts. Haven't even thought about it.
I wonder if that's because of the twelve team bracket.
Now it's like it's a minimized Yeah, the ball.
Speaker 4 (02:59):
Games were the advertiser while you wait for the for
the main entrec Now the main entree served earlier that's right.
Speaker 2 (03:05):
I still think it's going to be a huge matchup
in the blue Bonnet Bowl this year. The blue Bonnet
is really do they still have the blue Bonnet Bowl?
I don't think they do.
Speaker 1 (03:13):
No, no, no, that was the best the blue Bonnet Bowl,
blue Bonnet Bowl. All right, before we get to best
bets and all of that, let's get through the uh,
let's get through the court stenographer portion of the of
the broadcast, Todd Wishnev records.
Speaker 2 (03:35):
Well, yes, last week was a quite an outstanding week
for yours truly with a three and oh as you mentioned.
But Willie and Gilly by both using Green Bay and Arizona,
also had a nice week at two and one. That
brings Gilly to twenty one seventeen and one, nothing to
sniff at. He also won a teaser. How do you
(03:57):
like that, Gilly winning a teaser going to three one
on TV? Yeah? I thought you did one with the
Bills in Denver? Did Denver end up winning the ball game?
I both they did?
Speaker 1 (04:07):
I did, I did win it?
Speaker 2 (04:08):
Yeah, Jillie one. Will will the thrill Hill was really
struggling early in the year, but he's made a comeback,
I believe I said he's going to make a comeback,
and he has. He's back to eighteen twenty and one
and respectable five, six and two on his teasers. He
also won with the Bills and the Falcons. I, as
(04:29):
we said, went to twenty three and sixteen with my
beautiful three and oh when the Buccaneers went to overtime
to get me the over there, so and I lost
my teaser. I'm six and seven on teasers, and the
guests spot twenty twenty eighteen and one and also six
and seven on the teaser, So the guest spot is
(04:51):
slightly above. I am sure doctor Bob will continue to
make the guest spot profitable.
Speaker 3 (04:57):
You know I've been doing this. I've been doing this
Maga pod for what ten years? Nine years. I keep
good records, Gill. I have never been worse than two
and one.
Speaker 1 (05:06):
Never worse than two and one on the megapod, never.
Speaker 3 (05:08):
Worse two and one with a couple three and oh
sprinkled in.
Speaker 1 (05:12):
I like that little self and self pressure.
Speaker 3 (05:18):
Myself.
Speaker 1 (05:19):
I know I was gonna say, but good for you
for that's awesome two and one at the worst on
this show. You also have a good numbers game record too,
I am your lucky charm, Bob.
Speaker 3 (05:29):
You are indeed meeting you with a I can't say
it's the best thing that ever happened in my in
my life. In my case, my wife is listening. But
we know it is.
Speaker 1 (05:39):
We know it, you and me. No, okay? Which okay?
Which brings us to our Dumbo of the Week segment.
And because Thanksgiving is included, is there any doubt? No,
I know we can.
Speaker 2 (05:53):
But I'd like to also nominate somebody else. And and
because obviously everyone's going to jump on the bear's or
the ex coach, but I would just like to say
that when they throw an interception, the game is not over.
Elijah Moore and all the linemen on Cleveland and Jameis Winston.
When you throw an interception and the defender is lying
(06:16):
on the floor, the game, the play is not over.
It's not college football. The play is not over. You
must go over and touch the man in order to
consider him down. But if you're Elijah Moore, no, you
head straight for the refreshment to look for AWT talk.
He's not even interested in trying to make a tackle.
Neither is any of the linemen running over. And then
(06:36):
this is what's most puzzling when they go for the
back door touchdown late and Jamis throws another interception. All
of a sudden, they're running the linebacker down for the
when it's absolutely meaningless. So explain to me how that happens.
I would like to elect all of the offensive players
on the Browns as the asshole Dumbos of the week
for not running and trying to touch down a guy
(06:58):
laying on the floor.
Speaker 1 (06:59):
It's a very good choice. Elijah Moore, who uh it
was Jamis's second pick six? What ended up being Jamis's
second pick six, and it was the touchdown that put
the Broncos in cover position. Where you're right, Elijah Moore
was the intended receiver. This is the McMillan pick six
where all he had to do was like take three
steps back on the field and tag him down because McMillan,
(07:22):
for like a pregnant pause, was like I'm fine down
here on the ground, and then he was like, oh,
I haven't been touched. And as Will pointed out too
on a numbers game, it's like that replay also did
not touch him on the way down, barely missed him.
So he had to know that he had to go
back and tag him. It's just such mount practice that
that Jamis thing was the worst. If you had the Browns,
(07:44):
he ended up killing you with a pick six to
lose the first half. Bet pick six to lose the game.
Bet every ind game bet you could have possibly had.
It was just it was just a tour de force
of Jamis wins tour to four. But Matt everfws who
lost his I'm sorry, go ahead.
Speaker 3 (08:00):
I was gonna say. The the way to bet the
Browns since Winston took over is the over, which I
had as a player on that game. They're four and
one over since Winston took over. Because Deshaun Watson was
historically bad.
Speaker 1 (08:15):
Historically? How did he get that bad? By the way,
is it just the shame?
Speaker 2 (08:21):
Oh?
Speaker 4 (08:21):
I think nine hundred days of not playing the position,
you're just not getting the reps. It's you just if
you don't use it, you lose it. And it's just
you lose that instinct. I guess you lose just Hey,
it's hard to simulate playing quarterback in the NFL against
like live defenses if you're not doing it. I guess
this is we don't really have any other comparisons of
guys sitting out for three years or whatever it was
set out for like three years.
Speaker 3 (08:40):
Well, Aaron Rodgers hasn't been himself either after sitting out
a year change.
Speaker 1 (08:44):
So you know, it was the other RG three all
of a sudden when he came back from his injuries,
some mechanics just went out the window. Was another guy,
you know, after a long, long time out Eberflews. The
award the Dumbo of the Week should be named after
Matt Ebberflus. After again, the uh Bears inexplicably did not
call a timeout in the final sequence against the Allions
(09:04):
on Thanksgiving. We don't need to go through the details
other than I would say it's about eighty percent ever Flus,
twenty percent of Caleb Williams. Because that dude's been playing
football his life. He couldn't have called time out either.
He calling a different play.
Speaker 2 (09:17):
And then at the end, at the end, he doesn't
realize you cannot throw the football down the field long
at that point, just spike the goddamn ball and get
at least a field goal chance. No, he throws it
long the whole play.
Speaker 3 (09:29):
Gus. Unbelievable.
Speaker 1 (09:32):
It's terrible, absolutely terrible, by the way, the Raiders spiking
it with fifteen seconds left as opposed to letting you
go down three seconds and spiking it because you knew
they were going to invent a way to lose that
game against the Chiefs.
Speaker 2 (09:44):
By the way, was that right standard Raiders? That's standard
Raiders practice, That's not unusual.
Speaker 1 (09:50):
But by the way, was that the right? Was that
officiated correctly? The end of that Raiders Chiefs game? Isn't
that like a dead ball in some other games? I
don't know.
Speaker 4 (10:02):
I was hosting vsin so I couldn't. I was just watching.
I didn't have the sound, but usually when it's a
false start, they blow it dead. But I would have
to go back and watch it with the whistle. But
I know a lot of people's see too, me too.
Speaker 1 (10:12):
Okay, then, Todd, before the Best Bets, anything in gamy
that you wanted to.
Speaker 2 (10:16):
Share or Yeah, I just wanted to talk about one
real quick thing, and that is getting off a bet
that you don't like. So in the Bills game and
late sometime in the second quarter, I think I took
the over because I could see the snow was really
kind of hindering the defense. If you noticed, you know,
a cook got a handoff and ran eight million yards.
(10:37):
They were just gashing them on the ground, and you
could you could kind of see the defense wasn't as
quick because they don't know where the offense is going.
A lot of times people think snow is actually an under.
It's really wind is an under, and snow can sometimes
actually be an over. So I took over forty six
and a half. And then of course Juice Deck fumbles
on the first drive the third quarter at the two
(10:59):
yard line, like, all right, I'm in trouble now. But
we go to the mid to late about ten to nine,
ten minutes left in the in the fourth quarter, it's
thirty five to ten, and the Bills had already brought
in Trubisky. And at that point, I have over forty
six and a half and we're at forty five, and
I could get off on forty seven and a half
and just pay the viig And I said, I've seen this,
(11:21):
I've seen this show before. I've seen Trubisky in the game.
At the end of the game, they're just going to
run the game. You know, this game is over. So
I jumped off it at like minus one ten, So
I ended up paying viig of you know, one ten
and got off what would have been a sure loser
at that point because you know, the snow had started
to got worse, and it wasn't like the Niners were
doing anything at that point either. So you know, sometimes
(11:43):
you make a good in gameplay to get off something.
You know, even if you have to just pay the viig,
it can be worth it, and in that case it was.
Speaker 1 (11:51):
I love that. Here's my question to you, how give
me the percentage of give me the percentage of times
you think to do that and you actually do that. Well,
I'm getting better at it at right.
Speaker 2 (12:06):
I used to actually just hang in with my bet
and root for my bet to win, and now I'm
much better at saying, you know what, I'm cutting bait
with this. I don't love it anymore. If I can
get out with a possible slight middle chance or get
out with a big chance. For instance, the Packer the
game where the Bears lost by one, I believe to
(12:27):
the Packers, I had an opportunity to have time to
get the Bears plus one and a half to go
with my Packer's money line, which is a really small
middle one and a half the money line. The only
way you can middle is if it lands on one. Well,
of course it did land on one when they missed
the field goal at the end of that game. But
that was a perfect example where I didn't like how
it was going. They were giving me one and a
half points to get out of this. I'm getting out.
(12:49):
There's always other opportunities.
Speaker 1 (12:52):
I have you.
Speaker 4 (12:54):
Tampa Bay Carolina. Tampa is down three with thirty seconds left.
They have all their timeouts. Carolina just scored a touchdown.
Some books had them plus five hundred. They have plenty
of time to get in a field goal range. Their
favorite to the game to start like these teams always
getting a field goal range. You have all four downs
to work with, you have all three timeouts. That number
should not be plus five hundred. So you know, sometimes
I think people when there's thirty seconds in the game,
(13:16):
they just kind of ignore the game from a live
betting standpoint. Those there's some meat.
Speaker 3 (13:20):
On the bone with those, I think, and we were
we know that we.
Speaker 1 (13:24):
Know that Will did it because he texted it when
he did it. What percentage of books do you think
are up with that price at that moment?
Speaker 4 (13:33):
Most of them to draftings have it, Yeah, FANDOL and
DraftKings have it.
Speaker 1 (13:36):
Yeah, seeing EVA, we're screwed. Really yeah, we don't have
those books. Yeah, because here I'm like, first of all,
I'm not on them to know necessarily what the percentage is.
But it strikes me that it's not as like bookmaker
for instance, you know offshore Pillar oftentimes punts on that
kind of stuff. They don't have that available.
Speaker 2 (13:54):
I forget which you got one with plus one forty
seven going to overtime. I forget what it was, but you.
Speaker 1 (14:01):
College college basketball. It was Michigan State North Carolina, and
it was just like, it's just one of those things
where it's like, should either of these two teams be
plus one forty seven heading in overtime? I'm not sure.
I wouldn't have made the benefit was on the other
side also, right, So those those are good ones. Are
those opportunities exist? Bob? My question to you on all
(14:22):
that is, you have no time to do any of that, right,
I'm guessing I have never made.
Speaker 3 (14:29):
Any game bet in my life. Wow, when the games
are being played, that's the only time I have off
I knew that was the day back in my single
days in San Francisco. I was on dates hopefully, and
since I've been married, that's the time I spent with
my family. So yeah, I just don't bother. Usually I
(14:51):
don't even watch the games. I just I'm doing. It's
my only time off is when the game's being.
Speaker 1 (14:56):
Oh but Bob, we were so young, so young. Oh, yes,
back in the day. Okay, best bets, but let's start
with Thursday night football. Does anybody have a thought or
one of their best bets on Thursday Night football tonight
between the Packers and the Lions, which is a good
game on paper, Lions favored by three and a half
and as great as the Lions have been eleven and one,
(15:18):
they have Minnesota game behind them. In the NFC North,
they have Green Bay two games behind them, and then
for the number one seed, they only have the Eagles
one game behind. So it's not like Detroit is out
of the woods on anything yet. They haven't clinched or
accomplished anything quite yet. Any play on tonight's game from
many of us, I like the over.
Speaker 4 (15:37):
I'm gonna use that as one of my picks. Oh.
Speaker 2 (15:41):
I almost did the same thing, Willie, but I'm not
gonna do go ahead.
Speaker 4 (15:46):
Both these teams are top four in league yards per play.
Your indoors weather's not going to be an issue. I
think you can throw out the game. Last time they
played a month or so ago, where Love was banged up,
probably shouldn't have been out there. It was rainy. Lions
got a big lead and just took the air.
Speaker 3 (15:58):
Out of the ball.
Speaker 4 (16:00):
Detroit is all kind of beat up on defense. Both
good offenses. To me, Detroit's gonna get there, you know,
twenty seven points against pretty much anyone. I think this
is uh, you know, thirty to twenty seven type of game.
Speaker 1 (16:10):
I like the overhear. I am going to go opo.
I'm gonna go under.
Speaker 2 (16:18):
The numbers fifty and a half correct, the.
Speaker 1 (16:21):
Number is fifty one and a half.
Speaker 3 (16:23):
Yes, one and a half and a half.
Speaker 1 (16:25):
If you want to, if you one and a half,
I'm gonna go under. Lions go Man forty three percent
of the time. Jordan Love thirty eighth in quarterback rating,
thirty ninth against Man. Love against the blitz and by
the way, Detroit has gotten better on the blitz since
(16:46):
Aiden Hutchinson high not better, but they they blitz at
a higher rate fifth highest rate the second highest rate
since Hutchinson has been down. Jordan Love almost goes from
first to worst EPA per drop back against four fewer
rushers he's best in the league. Where they bring five,
he goes to thirty third out of thirty four. That's amazing.
(17:09):
And then also the fact that Zarius Smith seventeen pressures
in Hutchinson's absence, has been really good. You're right about
Alex Azeloni being out, Jack Campbell, Malcolm Rodriguez have kind
of stepped up, so I don't like. And then Josh Jacobs,
you know, gonna try. They're going to establish their run.
They're going to try to with Josh Jacobs. They can try.
Detroit's Diaz ranked fourth, but Green Bay is going to
(17:30):
try given those Jordan Love stats, I think. And then
on the other side, Packer's good against the run two
twelfth and DVOA. I don't think they can stop the
Detroit running game, but they can certainly contain it, and
then that will allow them to blitz more. I just
think fifty one and a half is a lot, and
I think the instinct is to go over. But for
some reason, by the way, when they played each other
(17:51):
earlier in the year, I think they got to thirty eight.
Speaker 2 (17:53):
If I'm not mistaken, that's not a fair game because
it was disgusting whether and it was raining and pouring
and disgusting.
Speaker 1 (18:01):
Well again, if you had just let me finish my thought,
I said, I get it, it was outdoors. But you know
you could interrupt and make it sound like an idiot.
Speaker 2 (18:08):
I get it anyway.
Speaker 1 (18:10):
Anyway, I'm going under under fifty one and a half
very much. I'm gonna start interrupting you right before the comma.
Also see how that goes. Problem. You know, I love
the Jews, except right like that kind of thing. By
the way, we got to complain someone was upset that
we were talking about religion last Oh great, that kind
(18:33):
of show. Okay, So I am on the UNDERWELLA is
on the over. As one of our best bets, Bob,
we go to you, sir for your first best bet.
Speaker 3 (18:44):
Oh goodness, I'm gonna go with the Raiders. They have
not given up. They keep playing hard. I think they
have a good matchup against Tampa's defense, and O'Connell's been
better against the blitz compared to a standard rush. Buccaneers
s blitz the second highest rate in the league. Brock
(19:05):
Bowers has been great as a rookie tight end. He
should have a huge game. I mean, he's third among
tight ends in yards per route run this year. Tampa
Bay's defense ranks thirty first out of thirty two teams
and expected points added per target against opposing tight ends.
They're also with out there starting safety Whitehead and the
(19:26):
backups out, so Bowers should feast in this game. So
I do like the Raiders offensive matchup here. Godwin's out
for Tampa Bay. He's having a good season, and Mayfield
relatively struggles against man coverage. Compared to z Own. The
(19:49):
Raiders are fourth highest rate in the league using man coverage,
So you know, and like I said, the Raiders have
not given up, and they've lost eight games in a row.
But teams that have lost seven or more consecutive games
are fifty five, twenty nine and one against the spread
when facing opponent off a win. So people tend to
(20:10):
give up on these teams, but historically they're good bets.
When you've lost that many games in a row, you
think they might give up, but they don't. And the
trend is that those type of teams tend to cover
on the road. Against teams off a win, and the
model has the Buccaneers by only five, so I released
it to clients a plus seven. It's down to six
and a half, and I still like the Raiders plus
(20:31):
six and a half.
Speaker 1 (20:31):
And that makes sense intuitively because the market probably over adjusts, right, Yeah,
given that situation and Antonio Pierce factor, where he will
do whatever he can to cover the spread.
Speaker 2 (20:44):
If he's down nine, he will be kicking field goal
on fourth down as opposed. You know he's already done
that twice this year to get inside the number. It's
my turn, right, Gilly.
Speaker 1 (20:55):
Yes it is.
Speaker 2 (20:56):
I'm going to that same game. I considered the Raiders
and they still may be one of my picks, but
I actually want to take the over here. What do
you guys have for the over? I have six and
a half. By the way, we were giving Bob six
and a half on the on the raid. Is that correct?
Speaker 1 (21:10):
Yeah? That's correct?
Speaker 2 (21:11):
Yeah? And then what do you have for the total here?
Speaker 4 (21:14):
Mostly forty forty.
Speaker 1 (21:17):
Half?
Speaker 3 (21:17):
Fish, Yeah, that's mostly forty six.
Speaker 1 (21:21):
Okay, forty six, says Bob the.
Speaker 3 (21:24):
Six and a half, but it's juice down.
Speaker 2 (21:27):
I'm going over forty six in the Raiders Carolina. I've
been saying this all year. Typically, there's always like a
team in the NFL that's just an over machine because
they can move the ball and they cannot stop anyone
trying to move the ball. Tampa Bay, to me, is
that team. They can move it pretty much against everyone.
They don't like stopping people. Carolina is a perfect example.
(21:51):
Went up and down the field against them last week.
I felt very fortunate to win my Tampa Bay plus
two and a half in game. Bet you know, they
weren't doing much on defense, and they don't do much
on defense in most of the games. If you look
at most of the games, people move the ball on
Tampa all day long. I was a little worried about
the Raiders because you know, you got eight and O'Connell.
But I just think Tampa Bay's so bad on defense,
(22:14):
They're going to move the ball. And I know Tampa's
gonna get me my points too. So I'm going to
go over forty six in the Raider Tampa game.
Speaker 3 (22:22):
By the way, Todd, that team is Cincinnati, but Tampa's
maybe second or.
Speaker 2 (22:27):
Third, right, it's Nati fair. That's fair to Cincinnati is
another one that I would also call it a dead over.
Sometimes there's more than one. But by the way, all
the time, the all time best team of all is
very apt. And because Jeff Parls texted me this on
the Jamis Game twenty nineteen, we sat at the South
(22:47):
Point every week, and every week they would bet the
Tampa Bay Buccaneers under, and I would come on your
AMG show and say, Tampa Bay Buccaneers over. I think
they went something like fourteen and two to the over
because not only would they the ball and not stop anyone,
Jamis usually would sprinkle in a couple pick sixes every
couple weeks, so it was just an unbelievable overteam. But
(23:09):
of course I do agree with you obviously, Bob, that
Bengals are another one of those crazy teams Jamis.
Speaker 1 (23:14):
By the way, the other night, the opt stats had
this stat his yards passing four ninety seven and then
the yardage on their interceptions that he threw one hundred
and seventy one or something like that. If you add
those two together, there has never been a game in
the history of the NFL where are a quarterback provided
that many yards in either direction, you're supposed to subtract
(23:39):
that interception yards from it, but they did the addition, Willie.
Speaker 4 (23:44):
If we could never talk about that Jamis Winston Broncos
game ever again, that would be just great. I'm going
to go, what do we have? Eagles Panthers twelve and
a half thirteen?
Speaker 2 (23:52):
What's I'm gonna lay it with Philly.
Speaker 3 (23:56):
I think this is.
Speaker 4 (23:59):
What are we going with? I will lay it with
Philly regardless you guys tell me the number.
Speaker 1 (24:02):
I think.
Speaker 4 (24:02):
I think they're going to perfect. This is the mismatch
of all mismatches. Carolina last week gave up two hundred
and thirty six yards rushing to Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay
running backs average six and a half yards per carry.
Philly is going to be able to win this game
without even throwing a forward pass. Philly's ground game is
just going to mall them. In terms of betting, I
probably just prefer a Philly team total over I think
(24:23):
if they're interested, they can basically score every time they
touch the ball. I know Young has been better, but
now you're going to Philly, hostile environment, outdoors. I still
think there are some limitations. Fanjo is a good defensive coordinator,
so to me, this game has you know, thirty eight
thirteen written all over. I think the Eagles role here.
Speaker 1 (24:40):
I love how everybody's.
Speaker 2 (24:43):
The weather's supposed to be decent in Philadelphia. I looked
at that. What are we giving him? Ghilly on the
number twelve and a half or thirteen twelve? But I
think consensus is twelve and a half? Okay, twelve and
a half, he said, look up.
Speaker 1 (24:55):
Screen, Ryce Young, four great games if the if the
magic carpet ride continues here for Bryce my turn, I
am taking the Los Angeles Rams plus the points against
the Buffalo billiards am I getting five or four and
a half? What am I getting.
Speaker 3 (25:17):
Three and a half?
Speaker 1 (25:20):
Okay? Well, I made the bet. I made the bet
earlier in the week where I uh, I got the
Rams plus five and I sprinkled on the money line
as well three and a half. I'll still take it
as long as there's a hook. I think the Rams
match up particularly well with the Bills in terms of
the Bills defense. The Bill's the whole defense is they
(25:42):
let you run the football, and they've been this way
for a few years now, where they let you run
the football, and the whole thing is either get ahead,
which squelches that strategy, or you make a mistake, because
if you have to matriculate the ball down the field,
you're more likely to make a mistake if you're doing
long drives, Rams running game with Kien Williams and Blake Orum.
I think Sean McVay coaches it up. I think he
(26:05):
knows this about the Bills. I think the Rams, who
Will has said very accurately on this show, what are they?
I have no idea what the Rams are from week
to week, but this week, I think I know what
they are. You're giving me those points, I will take them.
And I do think the Bills are due for a
game where one dude shouldn't be able to beat you, right,
(26:26):
And I think the Rams sort of spry defense with
both Jared Verse and who's his FSU teammate Brayden what
fsc fifth? I think they actually played Josh Allen. Well,
I'll take the Rams plus the points. I already gave
it first, so I guess I don't do my third here, right,
we go back to Will.
Speaker 2 (26:45):
No, let's go no, Will's had two. Let's go to
Bob for his second.
Speaker 3 (26:50):
Oh, okayle on that Gil, I'm the one who moved
the Rams from four to three and a half this morning,
my man. I still like the Rams at three and
a half. Rams. Last year, you might remember they had
a bunch of offensive line issues early in the season.
Then they had their bye week and they were healthy
on the offensive line down the stretch and averaged twenty
(27:12):
nine points a game and then made a run towards
the playoffs. Well, this year, same thing, offensive line issues.
Rob Havnstein made his first start of the year last week.
They are finally healthy on the offensive line for the
first time all year, and I think with Stafford being
protected better that the Rams offense is going to start
(27:32):
to cook just like they did last year. Like you
mentioned the run defense for the Bills, four point nine
yards per rush they allow. Rams are fourth in the
league and rushing success rate on offense, so they're going
to probably utilize the run game, which also slowed down
the pass rush and give Stafford more time to throw.
I think Allen's going to face some pressure. You mentioned
(27:54):
that a little bit. The defensive ends for the Rams
are very good. They pressure a lot fourth best pressure
rate in the league, so I think Alan's going to
face some pressure. And you also mentioned they're due for something,
and I have a stat as I usually do, teams
that score ninety five points or more over a three
(28:15):
game span are are generally bad against the spread the
next week, and the Bills apply to an eighty six, one,
sixty four and seven situations based on that premise. So
there is a little bit of a letdown here for
the Bills going on the road after scoring ninety five
plus over the last three weeks. And my model only
favors the Bills by half a point, So I think
(28:37):
there's line value. I think the matchups are decent, and
I like the Rams at plus three and a half
or more.
Speaker 1 (28:43):
I love it again. I made that bet early in
the week, and then Bob did it this morning. I'm
looking at the phone right now. I love it all right,
we're aligned on that. We're fine unless a third person
takes the Rams, then we're all screwed. We know the rules, right, will.
Speaker 2 (29:01):
Although we did all hit, we did all hit that
last week with three of US Rizona. Yeah, Arizona plus
the three and a half. We all had that, and
you guys both were on Green Bay and both hit.
Speaker 1 (29:13):
And the week deal was out.
Speaker 4 (29:14):
We all had Arizona and that and that one hit,
so we're, uh, we're breaking up these uh these narratives
are true of Arizona. I will go Arizona Seattle under flowdowns.
Speaker 2 (29:27):
So you had two picks, Gill had two picks, Bob
had two picks. Maybe I should also get to do
two picks, Willie? Or would you just like that?
Speaker 4 (29:35):
Yeah, that's fine, I guess I suppose.
Speaker 2 (29:37):
Yeah, Okay, sure, Okay, well, I appreciate that. I'm gonna
go with what do you guys have for the total
in the Kansas City Charger game?
Speaker 1 (29:53):
Charges forty three?
Speaker 2 (29:54):
Yeah, yeah, forty three. Okay, I'm gonna go under forty
three in the k C Charger game. I was listening
to Adam Churnoff, frequent guest on a n G and
the megapod, and he was talking about how Lad McConkie,
when they throw to Ladd McConkie, they're like a top
five throwing team. When they throw to anyone else, they're
(30:17):
like a bottom five throwing team. And you don't really
need the stats to tell you that. You just look
at who the San Diego Chargers have or the LA
Chargers have throwing the ball to. They don't have a
lot of weapons even Ladd mcclucky if he's your last.
Speaker 1 (30:30):
Week, sorry, last week, Herbert threw for one hundred and
forty seven yards one seventeen to McConkie.
Speaker 5 (30:36):
Right, and Lad doesn't exactly and he's a little bit
supposed that he may not. He's not made sure out.
Speaker 2 (30:47):
Okay, he's not for sure out. Granted, even if he's
half out, that's fun. All I'm saying.
Speaker 3 (30:54):
I think limited, Yes, I think he's limited if he plays.
Speaker 2 (30:59):
Okay. My point is, if Ladd McConkie's your top guy
who you're throwing the ball to, I think you have
a problem throwing the football to people. Because Lad McConkie
doesn't strike me as a number one wide receiver in
the National Football League. Maybe he's a very good.
Speaker 1 (31:15):
Why doesn't he strike you as that?
Speaker 2 (31:17):
It has nothing to do with what you're trying to in.
I know what you're trying to do, Gilly. I've seen
this show. I'm just saying he seems to me be
as a Charlie Joyner type. He's not more of your
like West Chandler or John Jefferson type for the Chargers. Okay,
he's more of a possession receiver. I don't see them
(31:39):
as Okay, whatever, the point is, they don't really have
a lot of guys to throw to. That's the bottom line. Okay,
they just don't. They're not an explosive offense in my mind.
So you got Kansas City with a very good defense.
I think they're gonna hold him down. I don't see
why they can't. Even against Atlanta, which is not a
good defensive football team, Chargers struggle to move the ball.
(32:02):
The Chargers are not a great offensive. They're winning because
they're running and they're playing defense. They're doing old school
harball methods for getting to the winner circle. And you
know what, I love it. I tip my hat to them.
Fantastic job. They're just not a juggernaut offensive team, and
I think that they're gonna have a hard time move
to the ball. Kansas City, it's a division game. Los
(32:23):
Angeles is good on defense. It's a division game. Give
me under forty three. You're gonna grind it. It's gonna
be a ground and pound. Give me under forty three.
Regardless of whether lad McConkey is gonna play, regardless of
whether he's a good receiver, and regardless of whether he
may be white or black, thank you, Gilly, Thank to I.
Speaker 1 (32:42):
I just say that, Wow, wow, he.
Speaker 3 (32:48):
Have just ten yards of target. That's that's pretty good.
Speaker 4 (32:51):
Yeah, he is really had.
Speaker 2 (32:53):
I didn't say he wasn't good.
Speaker 3 (32:55):
I just the average couple yards of target in college.
I mean, he's always been good.
Speaker 1 (33:00):
I can't believe geez, I believe it. Bob is Bob
gets DIBs on three. Right, we all start with our
third here, start with Bob.
Speaker 3 (33:10):
I love me. I'm gonna go with the Jaguars because
who wants the Jaguars?
Speaker 1 (33:16):
Oh? I did? Wow.
Speaker 3 (33:19):
Jones has not been good and he's probably I docked
them three and a half points for Jones versus Trevor Lawrence.
We know Jones can play better, but I'm assuming that
he'll play to the level he's played since the start
of last year, which is which is not good. But
we know he can play better. He actually played a
(33:40):
little bit better coming off the bench last week. I
started to a little bit of a rapport with Brian Thomas,
and Thomas has been good despite the bad quarterbacking for US.
Speaker 2 (33:49):
Here.
Speaker 3 (33:49):
He's fourteenth among wide receivers in yards per route run.
Got a good matchup in this game against a rookie
cornerback Jarvis Brownlee's seventh worst than the league and yards
per cover snap loud, So I think Brian Thomas is
going to have a nice game. Titans are missing not
only three starting corners, like both outside corners and their
nickel back, but they're starting safety digs Is out too,
(34:11):
so the secondary is depleted. So I think Jones, who
has proven he can be decent. I'm not expecting it,
but he can be better than I think he's going
to be. And I think he's got a good matchup
with Brian Thomas, a go to receiver that should be
open most of the game. On the other side of
the ball, you've got josh Heinz Allen with forty eight
pressures this season, top ten in the league. He'll be
(34:34):
up against a left tackle JC Latham who's seventh worst
in pass blocking efficiency, so I think heines Allen's going
to be in the backfield most of the game and
Will Levis's face, and Levis is prone to making mistakes,
probably an understatement. I's thirty fifth out of thirty fourth
out of thirty five qualifying quarterbacks and interception rate. He
(34:55):
should throw at least one pick you'd think so. I
like the matchups, think Tennessee's defense is in trouble, just
so many injuries in the secondary, and I favor the
Titans by just one point. So I'm taking three and
a half With Mitch Jacksonville.
Speaker 1 (35:12):
We we call Will Levis ill advised Billy Levi's that's
his nickname, and we talked about it on the radio.
I'm sorry, what is.
Speaker 2 (35:20):
The number there? What is the consensus number there? In
the Jaguar game.
Speaker 1 (35:25):
Is three and a half. I believe I'm seeing as
many threes as three and a halfs.
Speaker 3 (35:30):
You kill me, that's crazy. Well it's three. It's three
Jews at Draft Kings, but everywhere else is three and
a half, three and a half, CIRCA three and a half,
MGM three and a half, west Gate three and a half,
three and a half, US three.
Speaker 2 (35:42):
And a half.
Speaker 1 (35:44):
One outraged by my comment half at the show and
a half? By the way, was that bet on the
jaguires of the Jaguars, Bob, we have to be jack Wars,
we said on the Morning Wires.
Speaker 3 (36:03):
That's why I picked that up.
Speaker 1 (36:05):
He does call him man oh man.
Speaker 3 (36:07):
Yeah, Jaguiars jag wires.
Speaker 1 (36:10):
Uh, we said on the radio side this morning. How
much would would you have to be paid if you
did not have a wager on this game Titans Jaguars.
How much would you require to watch that game from
beginning to end without a bet on it and no
phone for distraction? You must watch the football game? Kelly said,
three hundred dollars.
Speaker 3 (36:31):
I was like, no, can I get a nap in?
Speaker 1 (36:35):
Can you get what?
Speaker 3 (36:36):
Wait?
Speaker 2 (36:36):
Can I get a nap?
Speaker 1 (36:39):
Have to be away. You have to be conscious, conscious
watching the whole thing. Then someone chimed in was like,
what about attending the game? Same rules? Oh brutal? Oh
uh toddy number three sir.
Speaker 2 (36:54):
By the way, it's funny because as soon as Mac
Jones went in the game, I bet team total under
thirteen and a half for the Jaguars, and of course
I went to the second half with ten and a
half to give. They only had three at the half,
and I thought, oh, I'm fine. And then of course
he gets one back door touchdown to get the thirteen
and I think, okay, I'm gonna still be all right.
That was on a fourth and eight when the cornerback
(37:15):
fell down. Then they get another back door touched. I'm
like Mac Jones all of a sudden you woke up
when I bet the under, and it's like so aggravating.
But anyways, you know he was I have to admit
he was better in the last quarter and a half
of that game for my third pick. I mean, it
is just it is tough pickings here this week. I
will say that. I mean, it just feels it just
(37:40):
feels like pulling teeth on some of these plays. To
be honest, Uh, I guess I'm gonna go Donnie in's
your ton. I'm going Donny in your ton? That's right.
I think maybe em storers might put a little whooping
ass like they did last week on Old Gilly's pick.
And look, all I can say is Akrosure Parking is
(38:04):
gonna be expensive. You know that's got a favorite of storers.
I'm not sure why, but you gotta think it. Give
me the stillers. I feel like Thursday Night Football in
the snow, they stole one from us, and now the
seven just seems like a gigantic number, a gigantic number.
(38:25):
But you know what, maybe we're really good. Maybe the
stores are really good, and we've seen the Jamis show.
Now maybe we get in on the pick six action.
So I'm gonna go dinner, and I'm gonna pick the
Pittsburgh Steelers in that. I'm gonna go down to the Rivers,
gonna get the free park eighty. I'm not gonna pay
a hundred, I'm gonna pay zero, and I'm gonna get
(38:47):
my good seats to watching the sports book Downer stores
minus What is it seven or six and a half?
You guys gonna be chinsey with me?
Speaker 3 (38:55):
I think it's six and a half. Juiced up.
Speaker 2 (39:00):
Bo upset it. I'll take the six and a half
for a Stiller win twenty eight twenty one. Stiller's minus
six and a half.
Speaker 1 (39:08):
Are we sure that's more six and a half than
seven and.
Speaker 3 (39:10):
fIF I'm looking at the Don Best screen. The consensus
is six and a half. Looks like more six and
a half?
Speaker 1 (39:16):
Okay, Bob wins again? I mean it is?
Speaker 3 (39:19):
Where's where's the seven circa?
Speaker 1 (39:22):
I'm not done.
Speaker 3 (39:24):
People can't get a pinnacle. I only see Circa and
Pinnacle at seven and.
Speaker 1 (39:28):
Those are those are exactly I am looking.
Speaker 2 (39:34):
He's upset because the Bengals. He took the Bengals down
their minus two and a half. He thought he was
gonna get over on a Mike Toman and that it
didn't happen.
Speaker 1 (39:42):
Bookmaker and Pinnacle or the two that had seventh exact.
Speaker 3 (39:45):
Oh yeah, Bookmaker, Yeah, that's it.
Speaker 1 (39:47):
Rester six and a half, Juice, Yeah, Rester six and
a half, right, Willie your last one.
Speaker 2 (39:58):
Mane all right?
Speaker 4 (39:59):
Seattle Arizona under forty four and a half. We talked
about Arizona. The front part of their schedule was heavy
with good offenses, so that hurt their stats defensively. I
think both these defenses are a little bit underrated. You have
two defensive head coaches, and these teams played three weeks
ago and it was sixteen to six, and that was
with a defensive touchdown. Seattle played the Jets last week
(40:20):
and that game went over, but that was completely misleading.
You had a lot of fluky points in terms of
defense and special team. So to me, it's just going
to be hard to get to forty four and a half.
Here I look like a twenty to seventeen type of game.
So Arizona Seattle under. As you guys mentioned, there's not
a lot man a lot of ugly games. When we
get to the question what game do you want? No
part of I got like five or six good answers.
It's just it's hard to find good side this week.
(40:41):
But I will go Arizona Seattle under forty four and
a half.
Speaker 1 (40:45):
My last one. I've only made two bets this week.
Speaker 2 (40:48):
Before you do your last one, Gilly, can we just
talk about how the Arizona Cardinals defense went from a
disastrous display in the first couple of weeks to now
it's like a good defense and maybe what doctor Bob
and you guys would think about that whole thing.
Speaker 4 (41:04):
Bob, you go from up three to up six, you're
asking for trouble. And that's what Arizona did last week
against Minnesota.
Speaker 1 (41:11):
Yeah, did you not like that in the moment when
they went when they kicked the field goal to go
up six.
Speaker 4 (41:15):
I'm a Vikings fan. I was praying for them to
kick the.
Speaker 1 (41:17):
Field goal and they did. That's the truth serum right there. Yeah,
the Aaron Shotts to answer your question from Aaron shots standpoint,
our buddy Aaron from last week? Was it last week
or two weeks ago? Last week? Yeah? He has the
Cardinals the seventh ranked team in all of football through
DVOA seventh. Uh he thinks and and by the way,
(41:41):
I have bet on a team I have bet. I
have not bet on a team more frequently than I
have the Cardinals and to great success. And that is
my third pick. I'm on the Cardinals minus two and
a half. That was the other bet I made this week.
The books respected my bet so much they kept at
it two and a half. It's still there two and
a half across the board. I like the Cardinals here.
(42:02):
By the way, this is a kind of do or
die game for the Cardinal. If they lose this, they
are two games behind the Seahawks lust the tie breaker
because they will have they will have been swept by
the Seahawks. So it is the proverbial must win situation.
Doctor Bob, by the way, with the famous must win line,
he doesn't like what the way I translated, but he
(42:23):
his famous must win line should be stated. If they're
in a must win situation, they yeah, it must not.
Speaker 3 (42:29):
If you're in a must if you're if you're in
a must win situation, you're not good enough to win
when you're when you want to win, so right, you know,
I don't know people, Oh they're in a must win. Well,
if they were good enough to win whenever they wanted
to win, they wouldn't be in a must win situation.
Speaker 1 (42:44):
Yeah, if you're in a must win situation, you must
not be that good, as I think the best way
to phrase that. I always give Bob credit for that line.
It's true. But I just think the Cardinals are better
football team. I really do.
Speaker 3 (42:54):
I think they're they're improved.
Speaker 1 (42:57):
I will say I will say this that the NFC
West as a group of teams. Who knows how this
wraps up, but I got the Cardinals. I couldn't. I
guessed or I believe on guessing lines or three and
a half. It's two and a half. That's enough in
a slim pickings week, as you guys were talking about,
that's enough for me to make a bet. I'm on
the Cardinals again. They have not done me wrong yet.
(43:17):
That's my number three.
Speaker 2 (43:18):
Wait, quick bonus pick first half Detroit Mercy over sixty
seven and a half against Purdue fort Wayne minus one twenty.
For the people on my WhatsApp group, I forgot my
other phone with me, so I forgot to put it
out on there. So if you could still get it
in by the time you listen to this, you're probably Okay,
but the commercial's over.
Speaker 1 (43:39):
That is that a game that's happening right now?
Speaker 2 (43:42):
Yes, it is currently sixteen to fourteen perdue fort Wayne
versus Detroit Mercy.
Speaker 1 (43:48):
Okay, all right, well they're not going to be able
to get it. So what's your number? First half? Todd?
I'm making it right.
Speaker 2 (43:55):
Now over sixty seven and a half.
Speaker 1 (43:58):
Oh, se I'm already at seventy. I don't reget that number.
Speaker 2 (44:02):
Well, I'm I'm watching it on ESPN plus it hasn't
come back from commercial.
Speaker 1 (44:06):
Yet seventy uh. Okay, which brings us to our teaser
of the week, where I am Breezers.
Speaker 2 (44:14):
Seers has it at sixty seven and a half Caesars.
Speaker 1 (44:17):
I am breathing down the neck of Todd wishnevn will
Hill when it comes to teasers. Now, after my one
to oh teaser performance last week, what a teaser it was, Bob,
your favorite two leg six point teaser of the week
would be that's my reaction, Bob every time?
Speaker 3 (44:36):
Yeah, it's uh god, you know I'm gonna I'm gonna
go with the Jets getting it through seven and ten
and even eleven. I guess I can get plus eleven
and a half with the Jets. Are they they five
and a half? Yeah, mostly five and a half, So
I can get that's eleven and a half, get through
a couple of key numbers if they get down big.
I mean, you can see some backdoor going on there,
(44:58):
and the Jets are just good enough to lose close.
Speaker 1 (45:01):
Uh.
Speaker 3 (45:01):
The other one is Philly minus six and a half.
I get that now too, right as they consensus twelve
and a half. We said that earlier, right, so I
can get Philly down to six and a half and
it would be Jets plus eleven and a half of
Philly minus six and a half.
Speaker 1 (45:14):
I love it. Bob comes in, He's like Stanford Wong
Schmanford Schmong.
Speaker 3 (45:19):
Yeah, there's not a lot of that this week, and
the ones that are in the long teasers I'm not
really not really vibing with. And aren't that many. I mean, yeah,
very true, whether one or two maybe, And there just
aren't anything that I particularly like, So Dotty.
Speaker 2 (45:36):
I'm gonna go with the stores. I already said why
I love the stores. I didn't give you a lot
of meat on the bounds, but I just have a
feeling this week that you know, we saw enough you know,
they figured it out, and they're gonna figure out that
guy Jamis. So Steelers are gonna win the game. And
I'll also take the six and a half with the
Eagles for all the reasons you guys have already clearly
(45:56):
made it clear. Safe one. Barkley may run for one
thousand yards this week and break the NFL record. By
the way, is there not a possibility that they give
the ball to saque to try to get him the
MVP a lot this week and maybe the alternate lines
on an already inflated rushing number might be worth a look.
(46:17):
I mean, I don't even know what the normal line is,
but could you imagine what it is for like plus
one seventy five or something one hundred and seventy five
yards or something. It's probably like big, big time plus.
They may give it to him, They may feed it
to them just to get him the MVP.
Speaker 1 (46:31):
Still five weeks, I don't know. It's it's yeah, there's
a lot of season left to play. But he is
in line for the NFL record all time record for
rushing yards, so maybe that's a consideration also, But it's early.
With the lost game, by the way, Yeah, with the
extra game, that's correct.
Speaker 3 (46:49):
The whole conversation about the extra game, Well should it count? Well?
Oj did it in fourteen, and Dickerson did it in
sixteen and Jim Brown it. How about just rushing yards
per game? Why? Why is it that the record?
Speaker 2 (47:00):
Yeah, because Bobby in America and in America, people can't
do math. They can't do math here in America.
Speaker 1 (47:12):
If you know that, Bob, you're asking them to divide.
Bob division on funny think, Yeah, a division. Multiplication's evil friend. Okay, uh, Todd,
You're no, you're Todd. You just gave yours, right, I
think it's me.
Speaker 2 (47:31):
Yeah, I give my Steelers egos.
Speaker 4 (47:32):
Yeah, I'm just gonna go Buck. Steeler's not a lot
of great options. But I think both those teams probably
win their games.
Speaker 1 (47:38):
I'm going rams because I have them ats, and I'll
take it through the seven rams plus nine and a
half and I will go. And I know this is
going to be the death of me. And I know
this is why this is what Bob's instinct is probably
correct here, Like, I don't want this. This isn't a longer,
by the way, it's even worse than a longer because
it's an away team. But I'm going to take the
(47:59):
Sinsey Bengals to basically just have to beat the Dallas Cowboys.
Come on, Bengals.
Speaker 2 (48:06):
Gonna win Cincinnati plus a half plus a half.
Speaker 3 (48:11):
I considered that, Yeah, I remember defense.
Speaker 1 (48:17):
Yeah, then right as I'm saying it, I'm remembering the
Bengals defense. But you gotta be able to beat them.
God s you can outscore them, right, even if you
give up a whole one. And Cooper Rush is gonna
is gonna keep bace with Joe Burrow, all right. Which
brings us to our final two questions of each and
every megapod. Final two questions, first of which is which
(48:38):
of the big favorites, and there's a lot of them,
which are the big favorites? In your opinion, is the
most likely to lose? Outright, Bob, here are your candidates.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers six and a half or seven
and six and a half point favorites hosting the Raiders.
I think we have Bob's answer already. Perhaps Steelers stealers,
as Todd would say, seven point favorites against the Cleveland Brownies.
The Eagles thirteen point frit's at home against the Carolina Panthers.
(49:03):
Let's leave it to those three. Those are your three choices.
What about Miami and the Miami.
Speaker 3 (49:11):
They're only five and a half, they're not six. I
think Tampa and Pittsburgh both could end up losing, just
I mean Pittsburgh because Cleveland is so variable. I mean,
they could be great or they could be a disaster.
So there's a lot of variance in that game. Tampa
because I already like the Ragers, so I'm going to
(49:31):
go with the Buccaneers as most likely to lose.
Speaker 2 (49:36):
STI I agree, I I just stin't like the Buccaneers
defense at all, and I think they could easily lose
a game. You know, I don't. I don't trust their defense.
I mean, they should have lost that game to Carolina.
Speaker 3 (49:48):
Let's be honest.
Speaker 4 (49:51):
Well, I'll say Pittsburgh just because Donald division game. Cleveland
just beat him, which I guess you could say it's
a revenge angle. But Winston the Old, the Old double
ahe he can win the game for either team. So
I'll say Cleveland, but don't feel great about it. Always
do this backwards.
Speaker 1 (50:05):
I'm gonna say Pittsburgh. I'm gonna say Pittsburgh. My instinct
to say Pittsburgh crushes him because they're, you know, after
the the old revenge spot theory. But I think Jamis
right now is like, I'll throw the ball on anybody.
Speaker 4 (50:19):
Eight strikeouts, eight walks, both new league records from off
from Bull Durham.
Speaker 1 (50:23):
That's James. Jamis said after the game. The Good Lord
could just prevent him from throwing the pick sixes because
he knows he's better. See if that's the case, and
the final could if he could deliver him from not.
Speaker 3 (50:38):
Deliver, he says.
Speaker 1 (50:40):
I love it.
Speaker 3 (50:40):
He says, you know, because that's not me. Like, no,
that is you. He goes, No, that's just not me.
Listen to that guy. This man is not self aware.
Speaker 1 (50:54):
Not me. That is one of the greatest It's not
me's ever. No, that is so you. You have proven
its time and time again.
Speaker 3 (51:02):
I love him. He's great.
Speaker 1 (51:06):
He's very likeable because you know why, because yeah, super authentic,
that is him.
Speaker 4 (51:13):
I think he's overdone a little bit now where everybody
rushes to clip everything he says is like the funniest
thing ever. I think it's a little overdone and maybe
he's playing into it, but but he does seem genuine
and authentic.
Speaker 1 (51:24):
Yeah, I would agree with What was the thing that
I thought was like way over to other Thanksgiving stuff
with the turkey legs? Please stop with that with a
turn duckan? Is that is America really that entertained by
every football game on Thanksgiving? Guys eating turn duckan afterwards?
The hilarity of it, like Kevin Burkhard just dying laughing.
That's not all right. Final one. We live in a
(51:47):
bizarro world. You are forced to bet a side side
of your choice in every one of these games, but
you are allowed one free pass, Bob, one game that
you want no part of. You wouldn't even bet it
with Todd's money. What game is?
Speaker 3 (52:01):
I think it's Philly Carolina. Like Carolina's playing better. Philly
could get a big lead, Carolina could backdoor, then Philly
could be just like I said, running the ball the
whole time and maybe just eating the clock. I could
see I could see them winning by twenty and I
can see this being kind of competitive or a back
door or And my numbers come up right on the
(52:22):
number twelve and a half, so I'm not interested in
that game.
Speaker 1 (52:27):
Twelve and a half is tough. It's a big, big
number Todd game, you want. No part of.
Speaker 2 (52:33):
The Saints Giants does not interest me. I'm not really
sure how the Saints can be favored by four and
a half against any team in the National Football League. However,
it's the Drew Locke show down in New York, and
that doesn't really make me too excited too, So I
just don't really see how you can get involved in that, Willy.
Speaker 4 (52:58):
I was going to use that one. But in a
sake of being different, and there's a lot to choose from,
I'll go Vikings Falcons just because if Cousins is banged up,
you just don't want any part of Atlanta. If they
throw Pannis in there, that's a rookie versus Flores. But
you know, just on the surface, that's too many points.
So that's a good one for me to stay away from.
Speaker 1 (53:14):
I'll have the same preamble you did, which is there's
a lot to choose from, but for the sake of
being different, Bears Niners. What I was going to say, like,
I wouldn't be surprised by any outcome in that game
if the Niners showed up all of a sudden and
again with less with fewer bodies than they've ever had.
(53:34):
It wouldn't surprise me if they beat the Bears. The
Bears the Bears, after all, But if the Bears won,
I wouldn't be surprised either, So I want no part
of that game none.
Speaker 4 (53:42):
Bears will have an advantage though, They will have seven
timeouts in this game because they get to carry over
the game the timeout they didn't use on Thanksgiving, which
is going to be big.
Speaker 1 (53:50):
Hey, rimshot, it's very true, man, They're I don't know,
by the way, just let's say this in conclusion, I
don't know what to make of Caleb. Something just appears
to be a little off, you know what I mean, Like,
it's just like, dude, you couldn't call a timeout his
comments after the game, I don't know, man, And I
(54:12):
always quote Todd Todd's very amusing yet accurate interpretation of
caleb which is, and Bob, by the way, has this quantified,
which I have to finish with Bob. But Todd's comment was, Oh,
let me get this straight. You ran around for your life,
scrambling back and forth all over the field until your
five star receivers managed to get open against their four
(54:35):
star defending components. Oh, and you're not that good in
the NFL. What a surprise. But Bob, you had a
great Lincoln Riley thing with him, right.
Speaker 3 (54:42):
Yeah, before the season started, I thought Jane Daniels was
going to be the best of the rookies, and that
Boat Nicks was probably going to be the second best,
just because he's got a high floor and you know,
sixty one or whatever career college starts, was ready to play.
But Lincoln Riley's quarterbacks are always good, and he's the
Going into this season, he was the second worst Lincoln
(55:04):
Riley quarterback, only ahead of Spencer Rattler. Wow, every other
Lincoln Riley quarterback had better collegiate numbers than than Williams.
So this year Miller Moss has been worse.
Speaker 1 (55:17):
You have always been good about projecting from college to
pro with quarterbacks, if I'm not mistaken. Accuracy is the
biggest factor in predictive.
Speaker 3 (55:27):
Yeah, well, translations. The best is accuracy, and that's why
I thought Nicks would be pretty good as a rookie.
Didn't makes quick decisions very accurate. Williams was not inaccurate,
but he threw a lot of balls in traffic with
great receivers who made him look good. I mean you
remember the receiving corp uh he had last year at
(55:48):
USC was very very good and they saved him a lot.
I just didn't think he'd be great. He could be
a good quarterback. I just didn't think he was near
the best quarterback come out of the draft.
Speaker 1 (56:00):
Merril Hodge, who was on a numbers game, his famous
quote that we we play every time I bring up
Caleb's name is nothing special. I don't think. I don't
think he's special.
Speaker 3 (56:09):
I don't think so.
Speaker 1 (56:10):
All right, he ran, what's that He needs to run more?
He needs to run more, take off and run.
Speaker 3 (56:19):
That's where a lot of his value is and he's
not using it.
Speaker 1 (56:23):
Good point, Yeah, because he's not, he's that adds a
dimension to his game. Jayden Daniels is definitely. I think
Jayden Daniels is still nursing his injury, so he's cut
back on that some.
Speaker 3 (56:32):
He's running a little more in the last couple of weeks.
Daniels like he's running a little more and so his
ribs might be healed out.
Speaker 1 (56:39):
Getting getting healed up. Thank you, Bob, always a pleasure man.
Thank you so much. All right, Doc, the great doctor
Bob d r Bob sports dot com at doctor Bob
sports dot com for all of his stuff across sports,
not just the NFL, college football, college basketball. It's all
there at doctor Bob sports dot com. I used to
(57:00):
work with Bob many years ago doing baseball. He's the best.
I always appreciate it. And in the staples of the show,
Todd wish Nev and Will Hill. Will Hill's podcast should
have bet more three times a week. Who's your latest guest? Will?
Speaker 4 (57:15):
Mike Sando is going to be on Friday talking the
NFL awards, his process for you know, when he starts
to sort things, talking about this weekend's games, where Belichick
is going to be next to your A lot of.
Speaker 2 (57:25):
Good stuff from Mike Sandal.
Speaker 1 (57:26):
I gotta get Sando back on a number skin. That's
my dude.
Speaker 3 (57:29):
That's a good listen. Yeah, that's a good one.
Speaker 1 (57:31):
And then Todd wish Nev again action still being shown
on showtime. You can see him with smoking hot Deanna
on there back in the day, and Todd is still
doing his college basketball. Can people join your discourse or
whatever you would?
Speaker 2 (57:46):
You You can send me a DM on on Twitter,
but I don't have time always to add all the people.
But when I anytime I get motivated to add people,
I will add you.
Speaker 1 (57:56):
Okay, there you go, Thanks for listening, Good luck with
all your bets. Week fourteen and that ashes so holy,
Betting on sports can be hard, but hiring Morgan and
Morgan is easy. Morgan and Morgan is America's largest injury
law firm. They have over one hundred offices nationwide and
more than one thousand lawyers. Their fee is free unless
they win. For more information, go to fourth people dot
com slash best bets or dial pound law pound five
to two nine from your cell phone. That's f o
(00:20):
R thepeople dot com slash best bets. This is a
paid advertisement com check it out.
Speaker 2 (00:28):
Man.
Speaker 1 (00:31):
Thursday morning, December fifth, twenty twenty four is the Beating
the Book Podcast Megapod Week fourteen National Football League. It's
Gil Alexander, thanks for joining us. As Todd Wishnev increases
his lead after a three and zero performance last week
on the megapod one and a half game lead. Dodd
Wishnev from his mom's cork Attic in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania at
(00:51):
t wish Nev on Twitter, star of the Showtime docuseriies
action hasn't had a haircut, and I'm gonna guess two
months now, what do you think? Two?
Speaker 3 (01:00):
Once over?
Speaker 4 (01:01):
No over?
Speaker 1 (01:03):
I'm over take the over on that? Okay over? Todd
congratulates on the three and oh, well done, sir, well done,
well done.
Speaker 2 (01:11):
Yes, you got to give the people what they want.
Speaker 1 (01:13):
This this guy, he talks when he's when he's not
supposed to talk. He doesn't talk when he's supposed to talk.
It's just incredible. Okay. Will Hill at not the Will
Hill on Twitter host the should Have Bet More podcast,
also part of Bear Bets at Chris Philka's podcast Empire
at Fox Sports, and of course a staple on this show.
How are you doing? Will Boys?
Speaker 2 (01:33):
What's going on?
Speaker 4 (01:33):
God to see everyone?
Speaker 1 (01:35):
I hate Todd, That's the first thing I want to
get out. My man uh And then our rotating guest,
an annual guest on this show. He is He doesn't
like to be called a pioneer. He's one of the vanguards,
one of the first to UH successfully as a business
predict the outcome of sporting events through predictive modeling. It
is my dear friend Bob Stole. You know him better
as doctor Bob at d R bobsports dot com. Dr
(01:59):
Bob It's on Twitter. I yout a Bob good.
Speaker 3 (02:02):
It's a pleasure to be honest. This is my this
is my sort of off week in college football. There
are not sixty games this week, so it's more more manageable,
uh than any other week of the of the year.
So it's it's it's good to be having a little
bit of sleep this week.
Speaker 1 (02:17):
Yeah, I was going to say this is a UH
and now it gets Now you get to have more
sleep with you know, with the uh with the playoff coming.
There's still bowl games, right, we don't even talk about.
Speaker 3 (02:27):
Yeah we have the bowl games. Aren't sixty games in
one week that I've got to dig into and you know,
So it's it's it's spread out over a month, so
it's more manageable than a regular week of college football,
which is just very taxing, especially with college basketball overlapping.
Speaker 1 (02:42):
Yeah, I'm just I'm just thinking about that just from
a broadcast perspective, like we I haven't even thought about
bowl games usually, I'm like, oh, I got to do
these massive bowl game podcasts. Haven't even thought about it.
I wonder if that's because of the twelve team bracket.
Now it's like it's a minimized Yeah, the ball.
Speaker 4 (02:59):
Games were the advertiser while you wait for the for
the main entrec Now the main entree served earlier that's right.
Speaker 2 (03:05):
I still think it's going to be a huge matchup
in the blue Bonnet Bowl this year. The blue Bonnet
is really do they still have the blue Bonnet Bowl?
I don't think they do.
Speaker 1 (03:13):
No, no, no, that was the best the blue Bonnet Bowl,
blue Bonnet Bowl. All right, before we get to best
bets and all of that, let's get through the uh,
let's get through the court stenographer portion of the of
the broadcast, Todd Wishnev records.
Speaker 2 (03:35):
Well, yes, last week was a quite an outstanding week
for yours truly with a three and oh as you mentioned.
But Willie and Gilly by both using Green Bay and Arizona,
also had a nice week at two and one. That
brings Gilly to twenty one seventeen and one, nothing to
sniff at. He also won a teaser. How do you
(03:57):
like that, Gilly winning a teaser going to three one
on TV? Yeah? I thought you did one with the
Bills in Denver? Did Denver end up winning the ball game?
I both they did?
Speaker 1 (04:07):
I did, I did win it?
Speaker 2 (04:08):
Yeah, Jillie one. Will will the thrill Hill was really
struggling early in the year, but he's made a comeback,
I believe I said he's going to make a comeback,
and he has. He's back to eighteen twenty and one
and respectable five, six and two on his teasers. He
also won with the Bills and the Falcons. I, as
(04:29):
we said, went to twenty three and sixteen with my
beautiful three and oh when the Buccaneers went to overtime
to get me the over there, so and I lost
my teaser. I'm six and seven on teasers, and the
guests spot twenty twenty eighteen and one and also six
and seven on the teaser, So the guest spot is
(04:51):
slightly above. I am sure doctor Bob will continue to
make the guest spot profitable.
Speaker 3 (04:57):
You know I've been doing this. I've been doing this
Maga pod for what ten years? Nine years. I keep
good records, Gill. I have never been worse than two
and one.
Speaker 1 (05:06):
Never worse than two and one on the megapod, never.
Speaker 3 (05:08):
Worse two and one with a couple three and oh
sprinkled in.
Speaker 1 (05:12):
I like that little self and self pressure.
Speaker 3 (05:18):
Myself.
Speaker 1 (05:19):
I know I was gonna say, but good for you
for that's awesome two and one at the worst on
this show. You also have a good numbers game record too,
I am your lucky charm, Bob.
Speaker 3 (05:29):
You are indeed meeting you with a I can't say
it's the best thing that ever happened in my in
my life. In my case, my wife is listening. But
we know it is.
Speaker 1 (05:39):
We know it, you and me. No, okay? Which okay?
Which brings us to our Dumbo of the Week segment.
And because Thanksgiving is included, is there any doubt? No,
I know we can.
Speaker 2 (05:53):
But I'd like to also nominate somebody else. And and
because obviously everyone's going to jump on the bear's or
the ex coach, but I would just like to say
that when they throw an interception, the game is not over.
Elijah Moore and all the linemen on Cleveland and Jameis Winston.
When you throw an interception and the defender is lying
(06:16):
on the floor, the game, the play is not over.
It's not college football. The play is not over. You
must go over and touch the man in order to
consider him down. But if you're Elijah Moore, no, you
head straight for the refreshment to look for AWT talk.
He's not even interested in trying to make a tackle.
Neither is any of the linemen running over. And then
(06:36):
this is what's most puzzling when they go for the
back door touchdown late and Jamis throws another interception. All
of a sudden, they're running the linebacker down for the
when it's absolutely meaningless. So explain to me how that happens.
I would like to elect all of the offensive players
on the Browns as the asshole Dumbos of the week
for not running and trying to touch down a guy
(06:58):
laying on the floor.
Speaker 1 (06:59):
It's a very good choice. Elijah Moore, who uh it
was Jamis's second pick six? What ended up being Jamis's
second pick six, and it was the touchdown that put
the Broncos in cover position. Where you're right, Elijah Moore
was the intended receiver. This is the McMillan pick six
where all he had to do was like take three
steps back on the field and tag him down because McMillan,
(07:22):
for like a pregnant pause, was like I'm fine down
here on the ground, and then he was like, oh,
I haven't been touched. And as Will pointed out too
on a numbers game, it's like that replay also did
not touch him on the way down, barely missed him.
So he had to know that he had to go
back and tag him. It's just such mount practice that
that Jamis thing was the worst. If you had the Browns,
(07:44):
he ended up killing you with a pick six to
lose the first half. Bet pick six to lose the game.
Bet every ind game bet you could have possibly had.
It was just it was just a tour de force
of Jamis wins tour to four. But Matt everfws who
lost his I'm sorry, go ahead.
Speaker 3 (08:00):
I was gonna say. The the way to bet the
Browns since Winston took over is the over, which I
had as a player on that game. They're four and
one over since Winston took over. Because Deshaun Watson was
historically bad.
Speaker 1 (08:15):
Historically? How did he get that bad? By the way,
is it just the shame?
Speaker 2 (08:21):
Oh?
Speaker 4 (08:21):
I think nine hundred days of not playing the position,
you're just not getting the reps. It's you just if
you don't use it, you lose it. And it's just
you lose that instinct. I guess you lose just Hey,
it's hard to simulate playing quarterback in the NFL against
like live defenses if you're not doing it. I guess
this is we don't really have any other comparisons of
guys sitting out for three years or whatever it was
set out for like three years.
Speaker 3 (08:40):
Well, Aaron Rodgers hasn't been himself either after sitting out
a year change.
Speaker 1 (08:44):
So you know, it was the other RG three all
of a sudden when he came back from his injuries,
some mechanics just went out the window. Was another guy,
you know, after a long, long time out Eberflews. The
award the Dumbo of the Week should be named after
Matt Ebberflus. After again, the uh Bears inexplicably did not
call a timeout in the final sequence against the Allions
(09:04):
on Thanksgiving. We don't need to go through the details
other than I would say it's about eighty percent ever Flus,
twenty percent of Caleb Williams. Because that dude's been playing
football his life. He couldn't have called time out either.
He calling a different play.
Speaker 2 (09:17):
And then at the end, at the end, he doesn't
realize you cannot throw the football down the field long
at that point, just spike the goddamn ball and get
at least a field goal chance. No, he throws it
long the whole play.
Speaker 3 (09:29):
Gus. Unbelievable.
Speaker 1 (09:32):
It's terrible, absolutely terrible, by the way, the Raiders spiking
it with fifteen seconds left as opposed to letting you
go down three seconds and spiking it because you knew
they were going to invent a way to lose that
game against the Chiefs.
Speaker 2 (09:44):
By the way, was that right standard Raiders? That's standard
Raiders practice, That's not unusual.
Speaker 1 (09:50):
But by the way, was that the right? Was that
officiated correctly? The end of that Raiders Chiefs game? Isn't
that like a dead ball in some other games? I
don't know.
Speaker 4 (10:02):
I was hosting vsin so I couldn't. I was just watching.
I didn't have the sound, but usually when it's a
false start, they blow it dead. But I would have
to go back and watch it with the whistle. But
I know a lot of people's see too, me too.
Speaker 1 (10:12):
Okay, then, Todd, before the Best Bets, anything in gamy
that you wanted to.
Speaker 2 (10:16):
Share or Yeah, I just wanted to talk about one
real quick thing, and that is getting off a bet
that you don't like. So in the Bills game and
late sometime in the second quarter, I think I took
the over because I could see the snow was really
kind of hindering the defense. If you noticed, you know,
a cook got a handoff and ran eight million yards.
(10:37):
They were just gashing them on the ground, and you
could you could kind of see the defense wasn't as
quick because they don't know where the offense is going.
A lot of times people think snow is actually an under.
It's really wind is an under, and snow can sometimes
actually be an over. So I took over forty six
and a half. And then of course Juice Deck fumbles
on the first drive the third quarter at the two
(10:59):
yard line, like, all right, I'm in trouble now. But
we go to the mid to late about ten to nine,
ten minutes left in the in the fourth quarter, it's
thirty five to ten, and the Bills had already brought
in Trubisky. And at that point, I have over forty
six and a half and we're at forty five, and
I could get off on forty seven and a half
and just pay the viig And I said, I've seen this,
(11:21):
I've seen this show before. I've seen Trubisky in the game.
At the end of the game, they're just going to
run the game. You know, this game is over. So
I jumped off it at like minus one ten, So
I ended up paying viig of you know, one ten
and got off what would have been a sure loser
at that point because you know, the snow had started
to got worse, and it wasn't like the Niners were
doing anything at that point either. So you know, sometimes
(11:43):
you make a good in gameplay to get off something.
You know, even if you have to just pay the viig,
it can be worth it, and in that case it was.
Speaker 1 (11:51):
I love that. Here's my question to you, how give
me the percentage of give me the percentage of times
you think to do that and you actually do that. Well,
I'm getting better at it at right.
Speaker 2 (12:06):
I used to actually just hang in with my bet
and root for my bet to win, and now I'm
much better at saying, you know what, I'm cutting bait
with this. I don't love it anymore. If I can
get out with a possible slight middle chance or get
out with a big chance. For instance, the Packer the
game where the Bears lost by one, I believe to
(12:27):
the Packers, I had an opportunity to have time to
get the Bears plus one and a half to go
with my Packer's money line, which is a really small
middle one and a half the money line. The only
way you can middle is if it lands on one. Well,
of course it did land on one when they missed
the field goal at the end of that game. But
that was a perfect example where I didn't like how
it was going. They were giving me one and a
half points to get out of this. I'm getting out.
(12:49):
There's always other opportunities.
Speaker 1 (12:52):
I have you.
Speaker 4 (12:54):
Tampa Bay Carolina. Tampa is down three with thirty seconds left.
They have all their timeouts. Carolina just scored a touchdown.
Some books had them plus five hundred. They have plenty
of time to get in a field goal range. Their
favorite to the game to start like these teams always
getting a field goal range. You have all four downs
to work with, you have all three timeouts. That number
should not be plus five hundred. So you know, sometimes
I think people when there's thirty seconds in the game,
(13:16):
they just kind of ignore the game from a live
betting standpoint. Those there's some meat.
Speaker 3 (13:20):
On the bone with those, I think, and we were
we know that we.
Speaker 1 (13:24):
Know that Will did it because he texted it when
he did it. What percentage of books do you think
are up with that price at that moment?
Speaker 4 (13:33):
Most of them to draftings have it, Yeah, FANDOL and
DraftKings have it.
Speaker 1 (13:36):
Yeah, seeing EVA, we're screwed. Really yeah, we don't have
those books. Yeah, because here I'm like, first of all,
I'm not on them to know necessarily what the percentage is.
But it strikes me that it's not as like bookmaker
for instance, you know offshore Pillar oftentimes punts on that
kind of stuff. They don't have that available.
Speaker 2 (13:54):
I forget which you got one with plus one forty
seven going to overtime. I forget what it was, but you.
Speaker 1 (14:01):
College college basketball. It was Michigan State North Carolina, and
it was just like, it's just one of those things
where it's like, should either of these two teams be
plus one forty seven heading in overtime? I'm not sure.
I wouldn't have made the benefit was on the other
side also, right, So those those are good ones. Are
those opportunities exist? Bob? My question to you on all
(14:22):
that is, you have no time to do any of that, right,
I'm guessing I have never made.
Speaker 3 (14:29):
Any game bet in my life. Wow, when the games
are being played, that's the only time I have off
I knew that was the day back in my single
days in San Francisco. I was on dates hopefully, and
since I've been married, that's the time I spent with
my family. So yeah, I just don't bother. Usually I
(14:51):
don't even watch the games. I just I'm doing. It's
my only time off is when the game's being.
Speaker 1 (14:56):
Oh but Bob, we were so young, so young. Oh, yes,
back in the day. Okay, best bets, but let's start
with Thursday night football. Does anybody have a thought or
one of their best bets on Thursday Night football tonight
between the Packers and the Lions, which is a good
game on paper, Lions favored by three and a half
and as great as the Lions have been eleven and one,
(15:18):
they have Minnesota game behind them. In the NFC North,
they have Green Bay two games behind them, and then
for the number one seed, they only have the Eagles
one game behind. So it's not like Detroit is out
of the woods on anything yet. They haven't clinched or
accomplished anything quite yet. Any play on tonight's game from
many of us, I like the over.
Speaker 4 (15:37):
I'm gonna use that as one of my picks. Oh.
Speaker 2 (15:41):
I almost did the same thing, Willie, but I'm not
gonna do go ahead.
Speaker 4 (15:46):
Both these teams are top four in league yards per play.
Your indoors weather's not going to be an issue. I
think you can throw out the game. Last time they
played a month or so ago, where Love was banged up,
probably shouldn't have been out there. It was rainy. Lions
got a big lead and just took the air.
Speaker 3 (15:58):
Out of the ball.
Speaker 4 (16:00):
Detroit is all kind of beat up on defense. Both
good offenses. To me, Detroit's gonna get there, you know,
twenty seven points against pretty much anyone. I think this
is uh, you know, thirty to twenty seven type of game.
Speaker 1 (16:10):
I like the overhear. I am going to go opo.
I'm gonna go under.
Speaker 2 (16:18):
The numbers fifty and a half correct, the.
Speaker 1 (16:21):
Number is fifty one and a half.
Speaker 3 (16:23):
Yes, one and a half and a half.
Speaker 1 (16:25):
If you want to, if you one and a half,
I'm gonna go under. Lions go Man forty three percent
of the time. Jordan Love thirty eighth in quarterback rating,
thirty ninth against Man. Love against the blitz and by
the way, Detroit has gotten better on the blitz since
(16:46):
Aiden Hutchinson high not better, but they they blitz at
a higher rate fifth highest rate the second highest rate
since Hutchinson has been down. Jordan Love almost goes from
first to worst EPA per drop back against four fewer
rushers he's best in the league. Where they bring five,
he goes to thirty third out of thirty four. That's amazing.
(17:09):
And then also the fact that Zarius Smith seventeen pressures
in Hutchinson's absence, has been really good. You're right about
Alex Azeloni being out, Jack Campbell, Malcolm Rodriguez have kind
of stepped up, so I don't like. And then Josh Jacobs,
you know, gonna try. They're going to establish their run.
They're going to try to with Josh Jacobs. They can try.
Detroit's Diaz ranked fourth, but Green Bay is going to
(17:30):
try given those Jordan Love stats, I think. And then
on the other side, Packer's good against the run two
twelfth and DVOA. I don't think they can stop the
Detroit running game, but they can certainly contain it, and
then that will allow them to blitz more. I just
think fifty one and a half is a lot, and
I think the instinct is to go over. But for
some reason, by the way, when they played each other
(17:51):
earlier in the year, I think they got to thirty eight.
Speaker 2 (17:53):
If I'm not mistaken, that's not a fair game because
it was disgusting whether and it was raining and pouring
and disgusting.
Speaker 1 (18:01):
Well again, if you had just let me finish my thought,
I said, I get it, it was outdoors. But you know
you could interrupt and make it sound like an idiot.
Speaker 2 (18:08):
I get it anyway.
Speaker 1 (18:10):
Anyway, I'm going under under fifty one and a half
very much. I'm gonna start interrupting you right before the comma.
Also see how that goes. Problem. You know, I love
the Jews, except right like that kind of thing. By
the way, we got to complain someone was upset that
we were talking about religion last Oh great, that kind
(18:33):
of show. Okay, So I am on the UNDERWELLA is
on the over. As one of our best bets, Bob,
we go to you, sir for your first best bet.
Speaker 3 (18:44):
Oh goodness, I'm gonna go with the Raiders. They have
not given up. They keep playing hard. I think they
have a good matchup against Tampa's defense, and O'Connell's been
better against the blitz compared to a standard rush. Buccaneers
s blitz the second highest rate in the league. Brock
(19:05):
Bowers has been great as a rookie tight end. He
should have a huge game. I mean, he's third among
tight ends in yards per route run this year. Tampa
Bay's defense ranks thirty first out of thirty two teams
and expected points added per target against opposing tight ends.
They're also with out there starting safety Whitehead and the
(19:26):
backups out, so Bowers should feast in this game. So
I do like the Raiders offensive matchup here. Godwin's out
for Tampa Bay. He's having a good season, and Mayfield
relatively struggles against man coverage. Compared to z Own. The
(19:49):
Raiders are fourth highest rate in the league using man coverage,
So you know, and like I said, the Raiders have
not given up, and they've lost eight games in a row.
But teams that have lost seven or more consecutive games
are fifty five, twenty nine and one against the spread
when facing opponent off a win. So people tend to
(20:10):
give up on these teams, but historically they're good bets.
When you've lost that many games in a row, you
think they might give up, but they don't. And the
trend is that those type of teams tend to cover
on the road. Against teams off a win, and the
model has the Buccaneers by only five, so I released
it to clients a plus seven. It's down to six
and a half, and I still like the Raiders plus
(20:31):
six and a half.
Speaker 1 (20:31):
And that makes sense intuitively because the market probably over adjusts, right, Yeah,
given that situation and Antonio Pierce factor, where he will
do whatever he can to cover the spread.
Speaker 2 (20:44):
If he's down nine, he will be kicking field goal
on fourth down as opposed. You know he's already done
that twice this year to get inside the number. It's
my turn, right, Gilly.
Speaker 1 (20:55):
Yes it is.
Speaker 2 (20:56):
I'm going to that same game. I considered the Raiders
and they still may be one of my picks, but
I actually want to take the over here. What do
you guys have for the over? I have six and
a half. By the way, we were giving Bob six
and a half on the on the raid. Is that correct?
Speaker 1 (21:10):
Yeah? That's correct?
Speaker 2 (21:11):
Yeah? And then what do you have for the total here?
Speaker 4 (21:14):
Mostly forty forty.
Speaker 1 (21:17):
Half?
Speaker 3 (21:17):
Fish, Yeah, that's mostly forty six.
Speaker 1 (21:21):
Okay, forty six, says Bob the.
Speaker 3 (21:24):
Six and a half, but it's juice down.
Speaker 2 (21:27):
I'm going over forty six in the Raiders Carolina. I've
been saying this all year. Typically, there's always like a
team in the NFL that's just an over machine because
they can move the ball and they cannot stop anyone
trying to move the ball. Tampa Bay, to me, is
that team. They can move it pretty much against everyone.
They don't like stopping people. Carolina is a perfect example.
(21:51):
Went up and down the field against them last week.
I felt very fortunate to win my Tampa Bay plus
two and a half in game. Bet you know, they
weren't doing much on defense, and they don't do much
on defense in most of the games. If you look
at most of the games, people move the ball on
Tampa all day long. I was a little worried about
the Raiders because you know, you got eight and O'Connell.
But I just think Tampa Bay's so bad on defense,
(22:14):
They're going to move the ball. And I know Tampa's
gonna get me my points too. So I'm going to
go over forty six in the Raider Tampa game.
Speaker 3 (22:22):
By the way, Todd, that team is Cincinnati, but Tampa's
maybe second or.
Speaker 2 (22:27):
Third, right, it's Nati fair. That's fair to Cincinnati is
another one that I would also call it a dead over.
Sometimes there's more than one. But by the way, all
the time, the all time best team of all is
very apt. And because Jeff Parls texted me this on
the Jamis Game twenty nineteen, we sat at the South
(22:47):
Point every week, and every week they would bet the
Tampa Bay Buccaneers under, and I would come on your
AMG show and say, Tampa Bay Buccaneers over. I think
they went something like fourteen and two to the over
because not only would they the ball and not stop anyone,
Jamis usually would sprinkle in a couple pick sixes every
couple weeks, so it was just an unbelievable overteam. But
(23:09):
of course I do agree with you obviously, Bob, that
Bengals are another one of those crazy teams Jamis.
Speaker 1 (23:14):
By the way, the other night, the opt stats had
this stat his yards passing four ninety seven and then
the yardage on their interceptions that he threw one hundred
and seventy one or something like that. If you add
those two together, there has never been a game in
the history of the NFL where are a quarterback provided
that many yards in either direction, you're supposed to subtract
(23:39):
that interception yards from it, but they did the addition, Willie.
Speaker 4 (23:44):
If we could never talk about that Jamis Winston Broncos
game ever again, that would be just great. I'm going
to go, what do we have? Eagles Panthers twelve and
a half thirteen?
Speaker 2 (23:52):
What's I'm gonna lay it with Philly.
Speaker 3 (23:56):
I think this is.
Speaker 4 (23:59):
What are we going with? I will lay it with
Philly regardless you guys tell me the number.
Speaker 1 (24:02):
I think.
Speaker 4 (24:02):
I think they're going to perfect. This is the mismatch
of all mismatches. Carolina last week gave up two hundred
and thirty six yards rushing to Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay
running backs average six and a half yards per carry.
Philly is going to be able to win this game
without even throwing a forward pass. Philly's ground game is
just going to mall them. In terms of betting, I
probably just prefer a Philly team total over I think
(24:23):
if they're interested, they can basically score every time they
touch the ball. I know Young has been better, but
now you're going to Philly, hostile environment, outdoors. I still
think there are some limitations. Fanjo is a good defensive coordinator,
so to me, this game has you know, thirty eight
thirteen written all over. I think the Eagles role here.
Speaker 1 (24:40):
I love how everybody's.
Speaker 2 (24:43):
The weather's supposed to be decent in Philadelphia. I looked
at that. What are we giving him? Ghilly on the
number twelve and a half or thirteen twelve? But I
think consensus is twelve and a half? Okay, twelve and
a half, he said, look up.
Speaker 1 (24:55):
Screen, Ryce Young, four great games if the if the
magic carpet ride continues here for Bryce my turn, I
am taking the Los Angeles Rams plus the points against
the Buffalo billiards am I getting five or four and
a half? What am I getting.
Speaker 3 (25:17):
Three and a half?
Speaker 1 (25:20):
Okay? Well, I made the bet. I made the bet
earlier in the week where I uh, I got the
Rams plus five and I sprinkled on the money line
as well three and a half. I'll still take it
as long as there's a hook. I think the Rams
match up particularly well with the Bills in terms of
the Bills defense. The Bill's the whole defense is they
(25:42):
let you run the football, and they've been this way
for a few years now, where they let you run
the football, and the whole thing is either get ahead,
which squelches that strategy, or you make a mistake, because
if you have to matriculate the ball down the field,
you're more likely to make a mistake if you're doing
long drives, Rams running game with Kien Williams and Blake Orum.
I think Sean McVay coaches it up. I think he
(26:05):
knows this about the Bills. I think the Rams, who
Will has said very accurately on this show, what are they?
I have no idea what the Rams are from week
to week, but this week, I think I know what
they are. You're giving me those points, I will take them.
And I do think the Bills are due for a
game where one dude shouldn't be able to beat you, right,
(26:26):
And I think the Rams sort of spry defense with
both Jared Verse and who's his FSU teammate Brayden what
fsc fifth? I think they actually played Josh Allen. Well,
I'll take the Rams plus the points. I already gave
it first, so I guess I don't do my third here, right,
we go back to Will.
Speaker 2 (26:45):
No, let's go no, Will's had two. Let's go to
Bob for his second.
Speaker 3 (26:50):
Oh, okayle on that Gil, I'm the one who moved
the Rams from four to three and a half this morning,
my man. I still like the Rams at three and
a half. Rams. Last year, you might remember they had
a bunch of offensive line issues early in the season.
Then they had their bye week and they were healthy
on the offensive line down the stretch and averaged twenty
(27:12):
nine points a game and then made a run towards
the playoffs. Well, this year, same thing, offensive line issues.
Rob Havnstein made his first start of the year last week.
They are finally healthy on the offensive line for the
first time all year, and I think with Stafford being
protected better that the Rams offense is going to start
(27:32):
to cook just like they did last year. Like you
mentioned the run defense for the Bills, four point nine
yards per rush they allow. Rams are fourth in the
league and rushing success rate on offense, so they're going
to probably utilize the run game, which also slowed down
the pass rush and give Stafford more time to throw.
I think Allen's going to face some pressure. You mentioned
(27:54):
that a little bit. The defensive ends for the Rams
are very good. They pressure a lot fourth best pressure
rate in the league, so I think Alan's going to
face some pressure. And you also mentioned they're due for something,
and I have a stat as I usually do, teams
that score ninety five points or more over a three
(28:15):
game span are are generally bad against the spread the
next week, and the Bills apply to an eighty six, one,
sixty four and seven situations based on that premise. So
there is a little bit of a letdown here for
the Bills going on the road after scoring ninety five
plus over the last three weeks. And my model only
favors the Bills by half a point, So I think
(28:37):
there's line value. I think the matchups are decent, and
I like the Rams at plus three and a half
or more.
Speaker 1 (28:43):
I love it again. I made that bet early in
the week, and then Bob did it this morning. I'm
looking at the phone right now. I love it all right,
we're aligned on that. We're fine unless a third person
takes the Rams, then we're all screwed. We know the rules, right, will.
Speaker 2 (29:01):
Although we did all hit, we did all hit that
last week with three of US Rizona. Yeah, Arizona plus
the three and a half. We all had that, and
you guys both were on Green Bay and both hit.
Speaker 1 (29:13):
And the week deal was out.
Speaker 4 (29:14):
We all had Arizona and that and that one hit,
so we're, uh, we're breaking up these uh these narratives
are true of Arizona. I will go Arizona Seattle under flowdowns.
Speaker 2 (29:27):
So you had two picks, Gill had two picks, Bob
had two picks. Maybe I should also get to do
two picks, Willie? Or would you just like that?
Speaker 4 (29:35):
Yeah, that's fine, I guess I suppose.
Speaker 2 (29:37):
Yeah, Okay, sure, Okay, well, I appreciate that. I'm gonna
go with what do you guys have for the total
in the Kansas City Charger game?
Speaker 1 (29:53):
Charges forty three?
Speaker 2 (29:54):
Yeah, yeah, forty three. Okay, I'm gonna go under forty
three in the k C Charger game. I was listening
to Adam Churnoff, frequent guest on a n G and
the megapod, and he was talking about how Lad McConkie,
when they throw to Ladd McConkie, they're like a top
five throwing team. When they throw to anyone else, they're
(30:17):
like a bottom five throwing team. And you don't really
need the stats to tell you that. You just look
at who the San Diego Chargers have or the LA
Chargers have throwing the ball to. They don't have a
lot of weapons even Ladd mcclucky if he's your last.
Speaker 1 (30:30):
Week, sorry, last week, Herbert threw for one hundred and
forty seven yards one seventeen to McConkie.
Speaker 5 (30:36):
Right, and Lad doesn't exactly and he's a little bit
supposed that he may not. He's not made sure out.
Speaker 2 (30:47):
Okay, he's not for sure out. Granted, even if he's
half out, that's fun. All I'm saying.
Speaker 3 (30:54):
I think limited, Yes, I think he's limited if he plays.
Speaker 2 (30:59):
Okay. My point is, if Ladd McConkie's your top guy
who you're throwing the ball to, I think you have
a problem throwing the football to people. Because Lad McConkie
doesn't strike me as a number one wide receiver in
the National Football League. Maybe he's a very good.
Speaker 1 (31:15):
Why doesn't he strike you as that?
Speaker 2 (31:17):
It has nothing to do with what you're trying to in.
I know what you're trying to do, Gilly. I've seen
this show. I'm just saying he seems to me be
as a Charlie Joyner type. He's not more of your
like West Chandler or John Jefferson type for the Chargers. Okay,
he's more of a possession receiver. I don't see them
(31:39):
as Okay, whatever, the point is, they don't really have
a lot of guys to throw to. That's the bottom line. Okay,
they just don't. They're not an explosive offense in my mind.
So you got Kansas City with a very good defense.
I think they're gonna hold him down. I don't see
why they can't. Even against Atlanta, which is not a
good defensive football team, Chargers struggle to move the ball.
(32:02):
The Chargers are not a great offensive. They're winning because
they're running and they're playing defense. They're doing old school
harball methods for getting to the winner circle. And you
know what, I love it. I tip my hat to them.
Fantastic job. They're just not a juggernaut offensive team, and
I think that they're gonna have a hard time move
to the ball. Kansas City, it's a division game. Los
(32:23):
Angeles is good on defense. It's a division game. Give
me under forty three. You're gonna grind it. It's gonna
be a ground and pound. Give me under forty three.
Regardless of whether lad McConkey is gonna play, regardless of
whether he's a good receiver, and regardless of whether he
may be white or black, thank you, Gilly, Thank to I.
Speaker 1 (32:42):
I just say that, Wow, wow, he.
Speaker 3 (32:48):
Have just ten yards of target. That's that's pretty good.
Speaker 4 (32:51):
Yeah, he is really had.
Speaker 2 (32:53):
I didn't say he wasn't good.
Speaker 3 (32:55):
I just the average couple yards of target in college.
I mean, he's always been good.
Speaker 1 (33:00):
I can't believe geez, I believe it. Bob is Bob
gets DIBs on three. Right, we all start with our
third here, start with Bob.
Speaker 3 (33:10):
I love me. I'm gonna go with the Jaguars because
who wants the Jaguars?
Speaker 1 (33:16):
Oh? I did? Wow.
Speaker 3 (33:19):
Jones has not been good and he's probably I docked
them three and a half points for Jones versus Trevor Lawrence.
We know Jones can play better, but I'm assuming that
he'll play to the level he's played since the start
of last year, which is which is not good. But
we know he can play better. He actually played a
(33:40):
little bit better coming off the bench last week. I
started to a little bit of a rapport with Brian Thomas,
and Thomas has been good despite the bad quarterbacking for US.
Speaker 2 (33:49):
Here.
Speaker 3 (33:49):
He's fourteenth among wide receivers in yards per route run.
Got a good matchup in this game against a rookie
cornerback Jarvis Brownlee's seventh worst than the league and yards
per cover snap loud, So I think Brian Thomas is
going to have a nice game. Titans are missing not
only three starting corners, like both outside corners and their
nickel back, but they're starting safety digs Is out too,
(34:11):
so the secondary is depleted. So I think Jones, who
has proven he can be decent. I'm not expecting it,
but he can be better than I think he's going
to be. And I think he's got a good matchup
with Brian Thomas, a go to receiver that should be
open most of the game. On the other side of
the ball, you've got josh Heinz Allen with forty eight
pressures this season, top ten in the league. He'll be
(34:34):
up against a left tackle JC Latham who's seventh worst
in pass blocking efficiency, so I think heines Allen's going
to be in the backfield most of the game and
Will Levis's face, and Levis is prone to making mistakes,
probably an understatement. I's thirty fifth out of thirty fourth
out of thirty five qualifying quarterbacks and interception rate. He
(34:55):
should throw at least one pick you'd think so. I
like the matchups, think Tennessee's defense is in trouble, just
so many injuries in the secondary, and I favor the
Titans by just one point. So I'm taking three and
a half With Mitch Jacksonville.
Speaker 1 (35:12):
We we call Will Levis ill advised Billy Levi's that's
his nickname, and we talked about it on the radio.
I'm sorry, what is.
Speaker 2 (35:20):
The number there? What is the consensus number there? In
the Jaguar game.
Speaker 1 (35:25):
Is three and a half. I believe I'm seeing as
many threes as three and a halfs.
Speaker 3 (35:30):
You kill me, that's crazy. Well it's three. It's three
Jews at Draft Kings, but everywhere else is three and
a half, three and a half, CIRCA three and a half,
MGM three and a half, west Gate three and a half,
three and a half, US three.
Speaker 2 (35:42):
And a half.
Speaker 1 (35:44):
One outraged by my comment half at the show and
a half? By the way, was that bet on the
jaguires of the Jaguars, Bob, we have to be jack Wars,
we said on the Morning Wires.
Speaker 3 (36:03):
That's why I picked that up.
Speaker 1 (36:05):
He does call him man oh man.
Speaker 3 (36:07):
Yeah, Jaguiars jag wires.
Speaker 1 (36:10):
Uh, we said on the radio side this morning. How
much would would you have to be paid if you
did not have a wager on this game Titans Jaguars.
How much would you require to watch that game from
beginning to end without a bet on it and no
phone for distraction? You must watch the football game? Kelly said,
three hundred dollars.
Speaker 3 (36:31):
I was like, no, can I get a nap in?
Speaker 1 (36:35):
Can you get what?
Speaker 3 (36:36):
Wait?
Speaker 2 (36:36):
Can I get a nap?
Speaker 1 (36:39):
Have to be away. You have to be conscious, conscious
watching the whole thing. Then someone chimed in was like,
what about attending the game? Same rules? Oh brutal? Oh
uh toddy number three sir.
Speaker 2 (36:54):
By the way, it's funny because as soon as Mac
Jones went in the game, I bet team total under
thirteen and a half for the Jaguars, and of course
I went to the second half with ten and a
half to give. They only had three at the half,
and I thought, oh, I'm fine. And then of course
he gets one back door touchdown to get the thirteen
and I think, okay, I'm gonna still be all right.
That was on a fourth and eight when the cornerback
(37:15):
fell down. Then they get another back door touched. I'm
like Mac Jones all of a sudden you woke up
when I bet the under, and it's like so aggravating.
But anyways, you know he was I have to admit
he was better in the last quarter and a half
of that game for my third pick. I mean, it
is just it is tough pickings here this week. I
will say that. I mean, it just feels it just
(37:40):
feels like pulling teeth on some of these plays. To
be honest, Uh, I guess I'm gonna go Donnie in's
your ton. I'm going Donny in your ton? That's right.
I think maybe em storers might put a little whooping
ass like they did last week on Old Gilly's pick.
And look, all I can say is Akrosure Parking is
(38:04):
gonna be expensive. You know that's got a favorite of storers.
I'm not sure why, but you gotta think it. Give
me the stillers. I feel like Thursday Night Football in
the snow, they stole one from us, and now the
seven just seems like a gigantic number, a gigantic number.
(38:25):
But you know what, maybe we're really good. Maybe the
stores are really good, and we've seen the Jamis show.
Now maybe we get in on the pick six action.
So I'm gonna go dinner, and I'm gonna pick the
Pittsburgh Steelers in that. I'm gonna go down to the Rivers,
gonna get the free park eighty. I'm not gonna pay
a hundred, I'm gonna pay zero, and I'm gonna get
(38:47):
my good seats to watching the sports book Downer stores
minus What is it seven or six and a half?
You guys gonna be chinsey with me?
Speaker 3 (38:55):
I think it's six and a half. Juiced up.
Speaker 2 (39:00):
Bo upset it. I'll take the six and a half
for a Stiller win twenty eight twenty one. Stiller's minus
six and a half.
Speaker 1 (39:08):
Are we sure that's more six and a half than
seven and.
Speaker 3 (39:10):
fIF I'm looking at the Don Best screen. The consensus
is six and a half. Looks like more six and
a half?
Speaker 1 (39:16):
Okay, Bob wins again? I mean it is?
Speaker 3 (39:19):
Where's where's the seven circa?
Speaker 1 (39:22):
I'm not done.
Speaker 3 (39:24):
People can't get a pinnacle. I only see Circa and
Pinnacle at seven and.
Speaker 1 (39:28):
Those are those are exactly I am looking.
Speaker 2 (39:34):
He's upset because the Bengals. He took the Bengals down
their minus two and a half. He thought he was
gonna get over on a Mike Toman and that it
didn't happen.
Speaker 1 (39:42):
Bookmaker and Pinnacle or the two that had seventh exact.
Speaker 3 (39:45):
Oh yeah, Bookmaker, Yeah, that's it.
Speaker 1 (39:47):
Rester six and a half, Juice, Yeah, Rester six and
a half, right, Willie your last one.
Speaker 2 (39:58):
Mane all right?
Speaker 4 (39:59):
Seattle Arizona under forty four and a half. We talked
about Arizona. The front part of their schedule was heavy
with good offenses, so that hurt their stats defensively. I
think both these defenses are a little bit underrated. You have
two defensive head coaches, and these teams played three weeks
ago and it was sixteen to six, and that was
with a defensive touchdown. Seattle played the Jets last week
(40:20):
and that game went over, but that was completely misleading.
You had a lot of fluky points in terms of
defense and special team. So to me, it's just going
to be hard to get to forty four and a half.
Here I look like a twenty to seventeen type of game.
So Arizona Seattle under. As you guys mentioned, there's not
a lot man a lot of ugly games. When we
get to the question what game do you want? No
part of I got like five or six good answers.
It's just it's hard to find good side this week.
(40:41):
But I will go Arizona Seattle under forty four and
a half.
Speaker 1 (40:45):
My last one. I've only made two bets this week.
Speaker 2 (40:48):
Before you do your last one, Gilly, can we just
talk about how the Arizona Cardinals defense went from a
disastrous display in the first couple of weeks to now
it's like a good defense and maybe what doctor Bob
and you guys would think about that whole thing.
Speaker 4 (41:04):
Bob, you go from up three to up six, you're
asking for trouble. And that's what Arizona did last week
against Minnesota.
Speaker 1 (41:11):
Yeah, did you not like that in the moment when
they went when they kicked the field goal to go
up six.
Speaker 4 (41:15):
I'm a Vikings fan. I was praying for them to
kick the.
Speaker 1 (41:17):
Field goal and they did. That's the truth serum right there. Yeah,
the Aaron Shotts to answer your question from Aaron shots standpoint,
our buddy Aaron from last week? Was it last week
or two weeks ago? Last week? Yeah? He has the
Cardinals the seventh ranked team in all of football through
DVOA seventh. Uh he thinks and and by the way,
(41:41):
I have bet on a team I have bet. I
have not bet on a team more frequently than I
have the Cardinals and to great success. And that is
my third pick. I'm on the Cardinals minus two and
a half. That was the other bet I made this week.
The books respected my bet so much they kept at
it two and a half. It's still there two and
a half across the board. I like the Cardinals here.
(42:02):
By the way, this is a kind of do or
die game for the Cardinal. If they lose this, they
are two games behind the Seahawks lust the tie breaker
because they will have they will have been swept by
the Seahawks. So it is the proverbial must win situation.
Doctor Bob, by the way, with the famous must win line,
he doesn't like what the way I translated, but he
(42:23):
his famous must win line should be stated. If they're
in a must win situation, they yeah, it must not.
Speaker 3 (42:29):
If you're in a must if you're if you're in
a must win situation, you're not good enough to win
when you're when you want to win, so right, you know,
I don't know people, Oh they're in a must win. Well,
if they were good enough to win whenever they wanted
to win, they wouldn't be in a must win situation.
Speaker 1 (42:44):
Yeah, if you're in a must win situation, you must
not be that good, as I think the best way
to phrase that. I always give Bob credit for that line.
It's true. But I just think the Cardinals are better
football team. I really do.
Speaker 3 (42:54):
I think they're they're improved.
Speaker 1 (42:57):
I will say I will say this that the NFC
West as a group of teams. Who knows how this
wraps up, but I got the Cardinals. I couldn't. I
guessed or I believe on guessing lines or three and
a half. It's two and a half. That's enough in
a slim pickings week, as you guys were talking about,
that's enough for me to make a bet. I'm on
the Cardinals again. They have not done me wrong yet.
(43:17):
That's my number three.
Speaker 2 (43:18):
Wait, quick bonus pick first half Detroit Mercy over sixty
seven and a half against Purdue fort Wayne minus one twenty.
For the people on my WhatsApp group, I forgot my
other phone with me, so I forgot to put it
out on there. So if you could still get it
in by the time you listen to this, you're probably Okay,
but the commercial's over.
Speaker 1 (43:39):
That is that a game that's happening right now?
Speaker 2 (43:42):
Yes, it is currently sixteen to fourteen perdue fort Wayne
versus Detroit Mercy.
Speaker 1 (43:48):
Okay, all right, well they're not going to be able
to get it. So what's your number? First half? Todd?
I'm making it right.
Speaker 2 (43:55):
Now over sixty seven and a half.
Speaker 1 (43:58):
Oh, se I'm already at seventy. I don't reget that number.
Speaker 2 (44:02):
Well, I'm I'm watching it on ESPN plus it hasn't
come back from commercial.
Speaker 1 (44:06):
Yet seventy uh. Okay, which brings us to our teaser
of the week, where I am Breezers.
Speaker 2 (44:14):
Seers has it at sixty seven and a half Caesars.
Speaker 1 (44:17):
I am breathing down the neck of Todd wishnevn will
Hill when it comes to teasers. Now, after my one
to oh teaser performance last week, what a teaser it was, Bob,
your favorite two leg six point teaser of the week
would be that's my reaction, Bob every time?
Speaker 3 (44:36):
Yeah, it's uh god, you know I'm gonna I'm gonna
go with the Jets getting it through seven and ten
and even eleven. I guess I can get plus eleven
and a half with the Jets. Are they they five
and a half? Yeah, mostly five and a half, So
I can get that's eleven and a half, get through
a couple of key numbers if they get down big.
I mean, you can see some backdoor going on there,
(44:58):
and the Jets are just good enough to lose close.
Speaker 1 (45:01):
Uh.
Speaker 3 (45:01):
The other one is Philly minus six and a half.
I get that now too, right as they consensus twelve
and a half. We said that earlier, right, so I
can get Philly down to six and a half and
it would be Jets plus eleven and a half of
Philly minus six and a half.
Speaker 1 (45:14):
I love it. Bob comes in, He's like Stanford Wong
Schmanford Schmong.
Speaker 3 (45:19):
Yeah, there's not a lot of that this week, and
the ones that are in the long teasers I'm not
really not really vibing with. And aren't that many. I mean, yeah,
very true, whether one or two maybe, And there just
aren't anything that I particularly like, So Dotty.
Speaker 2 (45:36):
I'm gonna go with the stores. I already said why
I love the stores. I didn't give you a lot
of meat on the bounds, but I just have a
feeling this week that you know, we saw enough you know,
they figured it out, and they're gonna figure out that
guy Jamis. So Steelers are gonna win the game. And
I'll also take the six and a half with the
Eagles for all the reasons you guys have already clearly
(45:56):
made it clear. Safe one. Barkley may run for one
thousand yards this week and break the NFL record. By
the way, is there not a possibility that they give
the ball to saque to try to get him the
MVP a lot this week and maybe the alternate lines
on an already inflated rushing number might be worth a look.
(46:17):
I mean, I don't even know what the normal line is,
but could you imagine what it is for like plus
one seventy five or something one hundred and seventy five
yards or something. It's probably like big, big time plus.
They may give it to him, They may feed it
to them just to get him the MVP.
Speaker 1 (46:31):
Still five weeks, I don't know. It's it's yeah, there's
a lot of season left to play. But he is
in line for the NFL record all time record for
rushing yards, so maybe that's a consideration also, But it's early.
With the lost game, by the way, Yeah, with the
extra game, that's correct.
Speaker 3 (46:49):
The whole conversation about the extra game, Well should it count? Well?
Oj did it in fourteen, and Dickerson did it in
sixteen and Jim Brown it. How about just rushing yards
per game? Why? Why is it that the record?
Speaker 2 (47:00):
Yeah, because Bobby in America and in America, people can't
do math. They can't do math here in America.
Speaker 1 (47:12):
If you know that, Bob, you're asking them to divide.
Bob division on funny think, Yeah, a division. Multiplication's evil friend. Okay, uh, Todd,
You're no, you're Todd. You just gave yours, right, I
think it's me.
Speaker 2 (47:31):
Yeah, I give my Steelers egos.
Speaker 4 (47:32):
Yeah, I'm just gonna go Buck. Steeler's not a lot
of great options. But I think both those teams probably
win their games.
Speaker 1 (47:38):
I'm going rams because I have them ats, and I'll
take it through the seven rams plus nine and a
half and I will go. And I know this is
going to be the death of me. And I know
this is why this is what Bob's instinct is probably
correct here, Like, I don't want this. This isn't a longer,
by the way, it's even worse than a longer because
it's an away team. But I'm going to take the
(47:59):
Sinsey Bengals to basically just have to beat the Dallas Cowboys.
Come on, Bengals.
Speaker 2 (48:06):
Gonna win Cincinnati plus a half plus a half.
Speaker 3 (48:11):
I considered that, Yeah, I remember defense.
Speaker 1 (48:17):
Yeah, then right as I'm saying it, I'm remembering the
Bengals defense. But you gotta be able to beat them.
God s you can outscore them, right, even if you
give up a whole one. And Cooper Rush is gonna
is gonna keep bace with Joe Burrow, all right. Which
brings us to our final two questions of each and
every megapod. Final two questions, first of which is which
(48:38):
of the big favorites, and there's a lot of them,
which are the big favorites? In your opinion, is the
most likely to lose? Outright, Bob, here are your candidates.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers six and a half or seven
and six and a half point favorites hosting the Raiders.
I think we have Bob's answer already. Perhaps Steelers stealers,
as Todd would say, seven point favorites against the Cleveland Brownies.
The Eagles thirteen point frit's at home against the Carolina Panthers.
(49:03):
Let's leave it to those three. Those are your three choices.
What about Miami and the Miami.
Speaker 3 (49:11):
They're only five and a half, they're not six. I
think Tampa and Pittsburgh both could end up losing, just
I mean Pittsburgh because Cleveland is so variable. I mean,
they could be great or they could be a disaster.
So there's a lot of variance in that game. Tampa
because I already like the Ragers, so I'm going to
(49:31):
go with the Buccaneers as most likely to lose.
Speaker 2 (49:36):
STI I agree, I I just stin't like the Buccaneers
defense at all, and I think they could easily lose
a game. You know, I don't. I don't trust their defense.
I mean, they should have lost that game to Carolina.
Speaker 3 (49:48):
Let's be honest.
Speaker 4 (49:51):
Well, I'll say Pittsburgh just because Donald division game. Cleveland
just beat him, which I guess you could say it's
a revenge angle. But Winston the Old, the Old double
ahe he can win the game for either team. So
I'll say Cleveland, but don't feel great about it. Always
do this backwards.
Speaker 1 (50:05):
I'm gonna say Pittsburgh. I'm gonna say Pittsburgh. My instinct
to say Pittsburgh crushes him because they're, you know, after
the the old revenge spot theory. But I think Jamis
right now is like, I'll throw the ball on anybody.
Speaker 4 (50:19):
Eight strikeouts, eight walks, both new league records from off
from Bull Durham.
Speaker 1 (50:23):
That's James. Jamis said after the game. The Good Lord
could just prevent him from throwing the pick sixes because
he knows he's better. See if that's the case, and
the final could if he could deliver him from not.
Speaker 3 (50:38):
Deliver, he says.
Speaker 1 (50:40):
I love it.
Speaker 3 (50:40):
He says, you know, because that's not me. Like, no,
that is you. He goes, No, that's just not me.
Listen to that guy. This man is not self aware.
Speaker 1 (50:54):
Not me. That is one of the greatest It's not
me's ever. No, that is so you. You have proven
its time and time again.
Speaker 3 (51:02):
I love him. He's great.
Speaker 1 (51:06):
He's very likeable because you know why, because yeah, super authentic,
that is him.
Speaker 4 (51:13):
I think he's overdone a little bit now where everybody
rushes to clip everything he says is like the funniest
thing ever. I think it's a little overdone and maybe
he's playing into it, but but he does seem genuine
and authentic.
Speaker 1 (51:24):
Yeah, I would agree with What was the thing that
I thought was like way over to other Thanksgiving stuff
with the turkey legs? Please stop with that with a
turn duckan? Is that is America really that entertained by
every football game on Thanksgiving? Guys eating turn duckan afterwards?
The hilarity of it, like Kevin Burkhard just dying laughing.
That's not all right. Final one. We live in a
(51:47):
bizarro world. You are forced to bet a side side
of your choice in every one of these games, but
you are allowed one free pass, Bob, one game that
you want no part of. You wouldn't even bet it
with Todd's money. What game is?
Speaker 3 (52:01):
I think it's Philly Carolina. Like Carolina's playing better. Philly
could get a big lead, Carolina could backdoor, then Philly
could be just like I said, running the ball the
whole time and maybe just eating the clock. I could
see I could see them winning by twenty and I
can see this being kind of competitive or a back
door or And my numbers come up right on the
(52:22):
number twelve and a half, so I'm not interested in
that game.
Speaker 1 (52:27):
Twelve and a half is tough. It's a big, big
number Todd game, you want. No part of.
Speaker 2 (52:33):
The Saints Giants does not interest me. I'm not really
sure how the Saints can be favored by four and
a half against any team in the National Football League. However,
it's the Drew Locke show down in New York, and
that doesn't really make me too excited too, So I
just don't really see how you can get involved in that, Willy.
Speaker 4 (52:58):
I was going to use that one. But in a
sake of being different, and there's a lot to choose from,
I'll go Vikings Falcons just because if Cousins is banged up,
you just don't want any part of Atlanta. If they
throw Pannis in there, that's a rookie versus Flores. But
you know, just on the surface, that's too many points.
So that's a good one for me to stay away from.
Speaker 1 (53:14):
I'll have the same preamble you did, which is there's
a lot to choose from, but for the sake of
being different, Bears Niners. What I was going to say, like,
I wouldn't be surprised by any outcome in that game
if the Niners showed up all of a sudden and
again with less with fewer bodies than they've ever had.
(53:34):
It wouldn't surprise me if they beat the Bears. The
Bears the Bears, after all, But if the Bears won,
I wouldn't be surprised either, So I want no part
of that game none.
Speaker 4 (53:42):
Bears will have an advantage though, They will have seven
timeouts in this game because they get to carry over
the game the timeout they didn't use on Thanksgiving, which
is going to be big.
Speaker 1 (53:50):
Hey, rimshot, it's very true, man, They're I don't know,
by the way, just let's say this in conclusion, I
don't know what to make of Caleb. Something just appears
to be a little off, you know what I mean, Like,
it's just like, dude, you couldn't call a timeout his
comments after the game, I don't know, man, And I
(54:12):
always quote Todd Todd's very amusing yet accurate interpretation of
caleb which is, and Bob, by the way, has this quantified,
which I have to finish with Bob. But Todd's comment was, Oh,
let me get this straight. You ran around for your life,
scrambling back and forth all over the field until your
five star receivers managed to get open against their four
(54:35):
star defending components. Oh, and you're not that good in
the NFL. What a surprise. But Bob, you had a
great Lincoln Riley thing with him, right.
Speaker 3 (54:42):
Yeah, before the season started, I thought Jane Daniels was
going to be the best of the rookies, and that
Boat Nicks was probably going to be the second best,
just because he's got a high floor and you know,
sixty one or whatever career college starts, was ready to play.
But Lincoln Riley's quarterbacks are always good, and he's the
Going into this season, he was the second worst Lincoln
(55:04):
Riley quarterback, only ahead of Spencer Rattler. Wow, every other
Lincoln Riley quarterback had better collegiate numbers than than Williams.
So this year Miller Moss has been worse.
Speaker 1 (55:17):
You have always been good about projecting from college to
pro with quarterbacks, if I'm not mistaken. Accuracy is the
biggest factor in predictive.
Speaker 3 (55:27):
Yeah, well, translations. The best is accuracy, and that's why
I thought Nicks would be pretty good as a rookie.
Didn't makes quick decisions very accurate. Williams was not inaccurate,
but he threw a lot of balls in traffic with
great receivers who made him look good. I mean you
remember the receiving corp uh he had last year at
(55:48):
USC was very very good and they saved him a lot.
I just didn't think he'd be great. He could be
a good quarterback. I just didn't think he was near
the best quarterback come out of the draft.
Speaker 1 (56:00):
Merril Hodge, who was on a numbers game, his famous
quote that we we play every time I bring up
Caleb's name is nothing special. I don't think. I don't
think he's special.
Speaker 3 (56:09):
I don't think so.
Speaker 1 (56:10):
All right, he ran, what's that He needs to run more?
He needs to run more, take off and run.
Speaker 3 (56:19):
That's where a lot of his value is and he's
not using it.
Speaker 1 (56:23):
Good point, Yeah, because he's not, he's that adds a
dimension to his game. Jayden Daniels is definitely. I think
Jayden Daniels is still nursing his injury, so he's cut
back on that some.
Speaker 3 (56:32):
He's running a little more in the last couple of weeks.
Daniels like he's running a little more and so his
ribs might be healed out.
Speaker 1 (56:39):
Getting getting healed up. Thank you, Bob, always a pleasure man.
Thank you so much. All right, Doc, the great doctor
Bob d r Bob sports dot com at doctor Bob
sports dot com for all of his stuff across sports,
not just the NFL, college football, college basketball. It's all
there at doctor Bob sports dot com. I used to
(57:00):
work with Bob many years ago doing baseball. He's the best.
I always appreciate it. And in the staples of the show,
Todd wish Nev and Will Hill. Will Hill's podcast should
have bet more three times a week. Who's your latest guest? Will?
Speaker 4 (57:15):
Mike Sando is going to be on Friday talking the
NFL awards, his process for you know, when he starts
to sort things, talking about this weekend's games, where Belichick
is going to be next to your A lot of.
Speaker 2 (57:25):
Good stuff from Mike Sandal.
Speaker 1 (57:26):
I gotta get Sando back on a number skin. That's
my dude.
Speaker 3 (57:29):
That's a good listen. Yeah, that's a good one.
Speaker 1 (57:31):
And then Todd wish Nev again action still being shown
on showtime. You can see him with smoking hot Deanna
on there back in the day, and Todd is still
doing his college basketball. Can people join your discourse or
whatever you would?
Speaker 2 (57:46):
You You can send me a DM on on Twitter,
but I don't have time always to add all the people.
But when I anytime I get motivated to add people,
I will add you.
Speaker 1 (57:56):
Okay, there you go, Thanks for listening, Good luck with
all your bets. Week fourteen and that ashes so holy,
Popular Podcasts
Las Culturistas with Matt Rogers and Bowen Yang
Ding dong! Join your culture consultants, Matt Rogers and Bowen Yang, on an unforgettable journey into the beating heart of CULTURE. Alongside sizzling special guests, they GET INTO the hottest pop-culture moments of the day and the formative cultural experiences that turned them into Culturistas. Produced by the Big Money Players Network and iHeartRadio.
Dateline NBC
Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations. Follow now to get the latest episodes of Dateline NBC completely free, or subscribe to Dateline Premium for ad-free listening and exclusive bonus content: DatelinePremium.com
This is Gavin Newsom
I’m Gavin Newsom. And, it’s time to have a conversation. It’s time to have honest discussions with people that agree AND disagree with us. It's time to answer the hard questions and be open to criticism, and debate without demeaning or dehumanizing one other. I will be doing just that on my new podcast – inviting people on who I deeply disagree with to talk about the most pressing issues of the day and inviting listeners from around the country to join the conversation. THIS is Gavin Newsom.