Beating The Book: 2024 Week 15 NFL MegaPod Betting Preview

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
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(00:20):
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Speaker 2 (00:28):
Check it out, man. Welcome to the Beating the Book
a megapod starring no Gil Alexander, which obviously will inflate
the ratings this week. No, I'm just kidding. We love Gilly.
Hilly can't be with us this week, and so we're

(00:48):
going to have to handle it here. I'm going to
put on my professionalism hat and try to move the
ball forward for mister Gilly Alexander. Okay, we have with
us our usual asked a will djon, a Carrington, Connecticut
Fairfield man, and he is you know, you know him.

(01:08):
How you doing, Willie?

Speaker 3 (01:10):
What's up boys?

Speaker 2 (01:11):
How's it going? And then we have a great guest
this week, one of the fantastic tennis players that I
was able to beat when I got thin back in
twenty twenty two and kicked his ass even though he's
a great tennis player. Ben Wilson from Vson, How are you,
mister Ben Wilson.

Speaker 4 (01:32):
What an appropriate introduction, Todd, Thank you so much for
the one time of the what eighteen occasions that we
batted it out on the tennis court. You did pick
the one time that you were in and I will
give you credit in impeccable shape. I actually called a
game at Fairfield, home of the Stags, so I have
I've been up to that bubbly campus as much as
I was going to give you brief about it. Two

(01:54):
thousand and fourteen thirteen. Maybe it was a long time
I was in college. It was a It was a
college trip with the University of Missouri women's volleyball team.
It was my first job. We had a little northeast
Northeast corridor trip to open up the season. It was
early September. We went out, we played Yale Fairfield. It
was an awesome time out on the East coast.

Speaker 2 (02:16):
Wow.

Speaker 3 (02:16):
I had no idea.

Speaker 2 (02:18):
Women's volleyball is a huge sport. And then you probably
had at least four or five listeners during the game.
I'm sure.

Speaker 4 (02:25):
Yeah, my mom my dad at least some of the time.
If my grandma could figure out the streaming part of it, yeah,
that'll be three. Yeah, you know, you got to start somewhat.
That was you know, and honestly, it's it's a very
fast sport, so it is. It prepares you very well
for everything else, Like once you're calling college basketball and

(02:46):
it's just absolute chaos toward the end of these games.
You know, it served a good purpose.

Speaker 2 (02:51):
Yes, well, you know, Ben Wilson is well schooled in
all the different sports. You know, next thing you know,
it'll be calling the miracle on ice in twenty twenty
eight like al Michaels did before he began the start. Okay, anyways,
let's move on to this week. I guess the first
thing we always do is we talk about the Thursday

(03:13):
night football game.

Speaker 4 (03:15):
Reord right records.

Speaker 2 (03:18):
Well, see, I was trying to.

Speaker 4 (03:21):
Because I'm trying to fer on the megapod. Even I
know how this is supposed to work.

Speaker 2 (03:25):
Come on, I'm just trying to bury the records because
I feel bad for the guys that are just trailing
me by so far. Last week, what's interesting is I
had my worst NFL week actually betting, and I had
a real good two in one on the on the megapod,
so that's always disappointing. But Gill and Will did not
do well last week, both of them put posting a

(03:46):
one and two record. Am I correcting that, Willie? With
your we got to write for a change? Yes, yes,
I got her right for a change. Gilly moving to
twenty two nineteen and one, and he won his teaser
to move to four nine and one on teasers. Will
goes one and two as well to move to nineteen

(04:08):
twenty two and one, and I have him winning his
teaser as well with the Bucks and the Steelers. And
then I had a nice you know, ho hum two
in one, which I usually do as the leader in
the clubhouse. Right now, I moved to twenty five and
seventeen with a nice big two and a half game lead.

(04:29):
I lost my teasers surprisingly with the Steelers and the Eagles.
The Eagles only one by six, Is that correct? The
Eagles one twenty two sixteen if I remember correctly. Okay, yeah,
so I lost my teaser to go to six and
eight and the guest spot which Ben Wilson will try
to advance the ball for the guest spot. The guest
spot did rather well, Doctor Bob again throwing in a

(04:49):
little two and one with the Rams, the Jags and
the Raiders to go to twenty two nineteen and one,
and the teaser lost it goes to six and eight.
So there's That's where we are on the records, and
now we can move on and talk a little Thursday Dumbo.
First we do the first we do Thursday Night Football discussion.

(05:12):
Then we go to Dumbo of the week Thursday Night Football.
Am I am? I right? Willy? Do we usually do
it that way? Or do we do it?

Speaker 5 (05:19):
I'm honestly not sure. I thought it was dumb all
the week then Thursday night.

Speaker 2 (05:23):
But I okay, fine, let's do it that way. Ben,
go ahead. Do you have a Dumbo of the week.
There were a lot of candidates. I heard I have
obscure one, so you can give us some more non
obscure one.

Speaker 4 (05:34):
Well, I actually was gonna go a little obscure. I
just kind of assumed you guys should go with the
more the obvious ones. And I know we've been ripping.
Everybody's been ripping. Antonio Pierce all year to the to
the degree that he had to move out of Gil's
apartment complex. It's been that bad because of the pure
degradation and shame. But you look at the game that
and I was on the Raiders as well, along with

(05:54):
the Doctor Bob. So that was just a miserable experience.
Anytime you are backing a team that has a guy
named Jess Ritter at quarterback and you need a backdoor
cover touchdown, that was not fun. But like so in
that game, we had probably the leading candidate for worst
challenge of the year simply because like if you are
at the offensive team the way the NFL, you know,
just like the timing how it works, Like you could
I get making a terrible challenge when you're on defense

(06:16):
right the other team they hurry up to the line.
You know, maybe you got like one quick look from
up upstairs and he's telling the coach, Hey, I'm not
sure if it's a situation or you know, a timescore
situation sort of thing where you just kind of feel
compelled to throw the challenge for like when you're on
offense though, and it's like an early part of the game,
you have zero excuse to just like burn a challenge
and get it wrong as badly as the Raiders did.

(06:38):
It was the second quarter. Not only did Trey Tucker
not get you know what, was part of his left
foot out of bounds. It wasn't like his you know,
toe was on the line or it was like a
sliver that barely missed. His entire foot was like nine
inches out of bounds. Like it wasn't even close. And
Antonio Pears just throws the challenge flag anyway, loses it.
And that was the first part of this. And as

(06:58):
always there's multiple things happened when it's an Antonio Pierce
coach game. But at the end of the game, guys, okay,
so you're so there's six minutes left here, you're down,
you're down eleven, right, so you need two scores fourth
and five of the Tampa twenty nine. And that's like,
I get it. Whether you want to go for it
kick the field goal, I have no issue. So they
go for it with with Ritter and they somehow pick
it up. Now you advance a couple of minutes later, right,

(07:19):
So now, once you've gone for it in that situation,
either you either commit to kicking the field goal or
you're going for it. Well, now you're pot committed, right,
you've said, okay, we're we're going for the touchdown, now
the touchdown in the two to try to make it
a three point game, down by eleven. Well then they
get to fourth and goal at the eighth and now
there's three minutes left, so they burned half the clock.
And then Pierce inexplicably is like, you know what, we're

(07:41):
good with the three, Let's just take the three. And
I'm just losing my mind. Not because it meant I
was going to lose the Raiders plus seven, but it's
just so confoundingly stupid and such a lack of a
lack of any sort of knowledge about like the timing
and optimization of link game strategy, that you would then
take the points there after you'd already made that decision,
Like it's like if you were it's like some of

(08:01):
those those old time like mid two thousands poker hands
when the poker boom happened and you'd have guys who
would you know, call like massive check raises, and then
they'd get to the turn and they'd be like, you
know what, actually I just fooled, Like they're pot committed
like you can't just at that point, you got to
just see it out. And that's essentially what happened there
with the Raiders. So that was that's the dumb the week.

Speaker 2 (08:20):
That's not the first time he's done that exact thing,
and there was another in the year. And it's funny
because I also had I took the Raiders plus seven
at halftime. Then they went on a ten minute drive
to start the third quarter and would have would have
been ahead. If they score there, they're they're inside the
ten or they're inside the fifteen yard line. If they
score there, they go up seventeen fourteen. I'm almost locked

(08:41):
to win the bet, as you probably had plus six
and a half. You were also probably locked up to
win the bet if we if we win, and then
even after that, we had opportunity after opportunity, and then
that backdoor scenario with less than three minutes ago, of
course we could have gone. I knew we weren't going
to get it in though with with you know, deasenerator,
Oh my god, he's bad. Okay, Willy, your your thoughts

(09:01):
on number of the week, you have, anybody want to
talk about.

Speaker 5 (09:05):
The Jets had the ball at the end of the
fourth quarter at the plus twenty seven with a minute,
just over a minute to go, where hey, you run
it three times, you kick like a forty four yard
field goal, and you leave.

Speaker 3 (09:15):
Like twenty twenty two seconds left.

Speaker 5 (09:17):
They lose five yards on a run, they take a sack,
and then they throw the ball and Adams goes out
of bounds to stop the clock, leaves Dolphins time for
a field goal.

Speaker 3 (09:25):
Dolphins winning overtime. Just ridiculous.

Speaker 2 (09:27):
Just a classic, just a classic one where like you know,
and everyone in the NFL seems to know they've got
to play the clock here at the end. In fact,
so much so that I think on Monday Night football,
when the Bengals receiver caught that out pattern and broke
the tackle, he was going down the silence and you
could see him thinking to himself, am I supposed to
score here? Or am I not supposed to score here?

(09:49):
Like everyone understands it now, and DeVante Adams goes out
of bound. So that was that's unbelievable.

Speaker 4 (09:55):
I have a similar one Rogers Way Rogers Brett Farva
Garrison lineage, like we're basically all we need now is
just the Rogers, you know, sex stape Dick scandal, and
we're basically even with Rogers and farm with how bad
the end has gone.

Speaker 2 (10:11):
Yes, it has fallen.

Speaker 5 (10:13):
Had that resurgent year in Minnesota where man he was
I think he finished like second or third in MVP.
The last he came back for another year in like
twenty ten, he was terrible, but he did have that
one great year and they, as some people know, should
have gone to the super Bowl, had every opportunity to
win that game. Gave it away with turnovers and he
threw a bad pick late. But he did have a
really good year for Minnesota. That was a good team,
by the way, Percy Harvie, I will.

Speaker 2 (10:35):
Just I will just sorry, Ben. I will just throw
in my my you know, my own pet Peeve and
Dumbo of the Week, which is a similar scenario. I
had two bets riding on. I had Titans money line,
and I also had over twenty one and a half
that I did at halftime in that game, in the

(10:55):
same game, so I have the entire thing coming down
to this drive. It's ten TOI and the Titans are
driving to win the game. They're probably at like the
fifteen yard line or something, and it's third down and five,
and they throw the ball to Ridley's wide open on
a little like bootleg play, and I have no idea why,

(11:16):
but he goes out of bound two yards before the
first time, and he could have it looked like he
could have easily turned it up and got the first down.
And even when he as he's walking back to the hell,
you could see him saying himself, why did I do that?
I think he was thinking, oh, I got to get
out of bounds, and that's what caused him to forget
about getting the first down. Of course, fourth and two
are boy will Levis goes down the drain. So I

(11:37):
took what is called a Willie loss, as the Titans
destroyed two bets for me on that same dumbow place.

Speaker 4 (11:46):
So at least we're the one guy at Survivor who
was on the Titans know it could have been working.

Speaker 2 (11:51):
Yeah, that's true, I could have been I lasted a
long time in Survivor. I think less than a week. Okay,
now the Yeah, the other thing we like to do
is that little in game stuff. I don't have a
lot of in game. Most of my in game was bad.
This week. It was a very bad week, probably my
worst week in the NFL all year. I guess the

(12:14):
only thing to talk about is really that you know,
when you get snake, but if you see good bets,
you still got to kind of bet them. And I
really didn't do a good job of that because I
was getting pummeled, and so sometimes I, like, you know,
get overly conservative. But the Steelers scenario was there was
really a nice scenario to play them under, like thirty

(12:36):
and a half. I believe they were up twenty seven
to seven with fourteen minutes to go at their own
four yard line, and you got to think they're going
to be running the ball there, probably not doing too
much with it, and you know, by the time they
punt it and get it back, there's probably not gonna
be a lot of time for any scoring. And of
course there wasn't, and I didn't get to win because

(12:57):
I was so in my head about all the losing.
So I guess the one thing I'll say is, you know,
BET's small enough so that you're not so upset about
when you're losing a couple in a row, so that
you can trigger and not be overly conservative. And sometimes
I do that if I'm like in an zero and
three scenario that I'll start getting overly conservative and miss

(13:19):
out on good bets. And it happens in college basketball
as well, but so that that would be like the
one in game tip that I would talk about for
this week. You don't have anything about in game? Do
you ben?

Speaker 4 (13:30):
One thing? I just noticed that I do the live
bet I've been doing the Live bet show on Sunday,
so our big thing. We'll do a lot of the
second half lines. And it is fascinating to me when
you get a game that is just so extreme pacing
and then the whether that's to the you know, to
the super up tempo or you know, to the fast
or to the slow, and then you don't really see
a second half adjustment. So you know, a great example

(13:51):
was that Titan Jaguar game. That first half ended in
like sixty two minutes. I mean it was like it
was I want to say it was like eleven five
am Pacific time. Most of the game for halftime usually
get there in that like eleven thirty am Pacific window.
And you know, the first time I was pulling this,
the first half total was twenty is you know, dead
under right. Second half they only shaded it like a

(14:11):
half point to the Unders nineteen and a half, and
we're sitting there like both of these teams are barely
over four yards of play. It is just run, run, run.
Neither team has any confidence in their in their quarterback.
And you know, that was one of those that it
took a while, but then I think better is kind
of caught onto it and it did go down a
little bit, but even still even closing nineteen like some
of that stuff, I don't think it's properly baked in.

(14:33):
And you saw how it played out second half. That
was what six nothing Titans at halftime? I did the
second half, I think it was three the exactly thing.
It was three nothing.

Speaker 2 (14:42):
Actually at halftime they put it up eighteen and a
half more twenty one and a half. I took over
because I've seen this. I hear what you're saying, and
it's a good point, but I've seen this too many
times in NFL games where a very very low scoring
first half turns into something different in the second half.
So I played over, and by the way, would have

(15:02):
won had they get had they get the end zone
at the end. So it wasn't like a clean call
for that under by any means, you know, I mean,
did win, And I take your point, but I tend
to like to play those opposite of the first half,
especially when they're overly extreme. But I do take your
point that, hey, you know you didn't really Maybe my

(15:24):
mistake was was not waiting long enough in the third quarter,
because if it does go over, it typically goes over
in the fourth quarter.

Speaker 4 (15:30):
Yeah, I think the distinctionary it's just like the length
of the drives, right, like all those it would be
one thing, it was just punt, punt, punt, just back
and forth, three you know, replay drives and it was
like eight minute, nine minutes, just these super long, matriculating
drives where yeah, you knew like teams were able to
move full teams are able to move. The ball was
just you could tell there was zero confidence in them
doing anything once they got inside, like opposing twenty five

(15:51):
and yes, you got unlucky because you had the what
like not the ten minute drive right where in the
first half it was fourth and goal with to one
and let it throws it out back of it or
out of the back of the end zone. So that
was part of it. But yeah, I just think like
the length of drive sometimes gets missed a little bit
and not not baked in enough for how some of
these in game prices get set.

Speaker 5 (16:11):
I will quickly with one DraftKings and I couldn't share
this in the chat Todd because they just they move
so quickly and I don't know if you have access
to them, but live drive props. When you see these quarterback,
like the Giants, you lock or the veto completely overmatched.
Next drive to punt is usually like minus one ten
plus one ten. It's pretty reasonably priced, where man, if
they don't turn it over and now late game in
garbage time, they're going to go for it, so you

(16:32):
stay away from it. But like the Giants, the punt,
I think this week is gonna be one I'm gonna
be looking for because man, they're gonna be punting a lot.

Speaker 2 (16:40):
Yeah. That when you say that, it kind of reminds
me of when you would text us about the baseball
ones where where you guys just throwing flames and you're
like one, two, three, inning is like Rynus, whatever you know,
and you just know that the batters have no chance.
It's it's very similar concept of what you're talking about
when you see Drew Lock going three and out, three

(17:01):
and out, three and out. It's the same idea. That
is a great angle that I don't look at enough,
and I'm glad that you just brought it up, because
that is, that is a fantastic angle, especially when you see,
you know, just an overmatched offense.

Speaker 5 (17:14):
But you do have to worry. Hey, if I like,
let's just say this week it's the Ravens. If Lamar
throws a pick and the Giants take over at the
plus forty, well, now you're probably not punting, so there's
different moving parts to it. But as long as the
field position is reasonable, punt is probably not a bad
way to go. With the Giants and some of these
other offenses that are completely overmatched.

Speaker 2 (17:31):
There's a bet to score also, I don't know if
you've seen that one to score on the next drive,
which is which is usually a two way one. Will
they'll just have will they score? Will they not score?
A lot of ESPN bet has that they have also
one where it's like will they cross the thirty five?
Will they not cross the thirty five? Which is also
another one, And I don't look at that stuff enough.
I mean, there's just so much to look at will

(17:52):
these in games are going. It's hard to be on everything,
but that's a really good one to think about for
next week. Okay, so we talked about the Dumble, the week,
we talked about in game action. Now let's get to Thursday.
And my first question is, does anybody have one of
their official three plays on tonight's Rams Niners tilt eight

(18:14):
fifteen Eastern in San Francisco Levi Stadium, either of I don't.
Not for me, I lean.

Speaker 4 (18:22):
Little Niners here sub three, but it is increasingly apparent
like the NFC West, it just sort of this whack
a mole division. It's like good in a week to
week trying to get a good sense for where these
teams are at. And the Rams are just a team
that scares me because I'm still not convinced that defense
is really any good. The numbers pair that out, but
I've seen some advanced numbers Matthew Stafford last two seasons now,

(18:45):
since the bye week, the respective bye week for the
Rams is basically playing at a top five level. And
you know, you always think about the matchup here, the
McVeigh shan and how you know, just the schematics there
and where it plays out, but I thinking about the
way San Francisco, I mean they were left for dead,
kind of got off the door mat last week. The
only thing keeping me off. It's like, okay, Niners were

(19:05):
minus three and home against the Bears. Now they're basically three.
I know the money's come back a little bit. It's
two and a half, but you're obviously not Nobody would
ever say the Rams and the Bears would be a
pick them on a neutral field, so that that's where
for me. It's just pricing wise. It's just been a
little bit schizophrenic week to week here, especially with these
Niner games and trying to figure out all the injuries
and play.

Speaker 2 (19:27):
I actually have one of my picks for tonight's game,
Thursday Night Football, and you have it two and a half, correct, Willy.

Speaker 3 (19:37):
I'll defer I thought it was mostly three.

Speaker 4 (19:40):
I'm seeing you're doing. I actually I'm seeing I'm seeing
like Circa, Westgate, Caesars, everywhere's too and they're just two
and a half.

Speaker 3 (19:51):
Give them a half points.

Speaker 4 (19:56):
Two and a half, you know, Teddy, I mean, if
he's going total forty eight half, I'm seeing.

Speaker 2 (20:02):
Okay, I'm gonna go with the Niners minus the two
and a half over the objections of my friend the
whiner from Connecticut. I'm sure he had plenty of whine
about on the Time article about one c from Iowa,
but we won't talk about that. The Niners a minus
and nine and a half, I'm going to take them,

(20:24):
I mean my minus two and a half. I'm going
to take the Niners. Yet the first game between these
two teams. Now granted these aren't the same teams, and
I take your point, Ben, it's a great point. The
Rams do look amazing often time. They don't look great
on defense to me. They don't look good great on
defense at all. To me, I think the Niners. The
one good thing I did last week is when I

(20:44):
saw the Niners start moving the ball and the Bears
immediately took the Niners team total over. It was the
one good thing I did all last week. And the
Niners to me felt like, Okay, you know, too many
people have said too many bad things about us, and
if you go back and look at the games, you
know they weren't all that bad until of course they
had to go to the backup quarterback and everything. So

(21:07):
I just feel like the Niners are too lowly valued
here and the first game between the Rams Niners, the
Rams won in a miracle. The Niners completely dominated the
game if you remember the game correctly, with some wacky
stuff late in the game. There was missfield goals. I
think there was all kind of wacky stuff and the
Rams ended up winning the game. Now, granted, I think

(21:27):
the Rams are a better team than then, and the
Niners are a worse team than then. I'll agree with
you on that, but two and a half points for
the Niners. Now, this Rams defense is not good. Now. Granted,
like I said, the Rams offense it's outstanding, but that
the Niners defense, is it that bad? I don't know.
I just have the feeling that the Niners had, you know,

(21:51):
last week, kind of said, hey, everybody has totally called
us like we're the disaster team for this year, and
maybe we want to make a statement. They did it
against the big I think they're gonna do it here.
And at two and a half points, I've got to
take a shot on the Niners tonight. So maybe I.

Speaker 4 (22:06):
Remember your points out I had. I remember I had
the Rams plus seven and a half in that first
game that was Week three, and that you know, and
you're thinking, like for the I mean, the Rams were
kind of just in back door cover rage, Like I'm like,
there's no way they're going to win. Can they just
get a can they just get one score here to
get in the back door. Next thing, you know, like
five minutes later, they're winning the damn game. It was.

(22:27):
It was totally blooky.

Speaker 2 (22:28):
So yeah, they were down ten if I remember correctly,
they were down ten, and then the Niners I think,
mister field goers, I can't remember, but then it looked
like you were going to get the plus the back
door plus seven and a half. Then then I think
too to out well caught a bomb at the way
end and tied it or something if I remember correctly,
But yeah, they.

Speaker 4 (22:44):
Are getting a discount. I mean, if you think if
you were in even giving a full one and a
half for Rams home field, which I wouldn't have, but
if you flipped home field at the time, that would
have been Niners minus four and a half or sorry
not excuse me, the other way, Niners minus ten and
a half at home. So you're telling me, now that's
im Granted, yes, Am is much better than then Niners
have appreciated, but that yeah, you're talking about an eight

(23:04):
point swing there from week four. Basically, that's a little
that's a little munch with you.

Speaker 2 (23:09):
Yeah yeah, Okay, So the number one play of the
week for you, mister Ben Wilson.

Speaker 4 (23:17):
I am going to go to the Miami Houston game.
I am seeing, Uh, I'm seeing a lot of threes
versus two and a half. Tom, I am I getting
the full three with Todd's up Miami.

Speaker 2 (23:30):
Willie, I see a lot of I see two and
a half. Anthey, I'll let you make the call so
that you don't cry, Uh, Willie.

Speaker 3 (23:39):
It depends what side he likes. What are we talking about? Dolphins?

Speaker 4 (23:43):
Dolphins, Dolphin, and I got I got threes that Westgate
d K Caesar's sped online.

Speaker 3 (23:50):
I think three is more than acceptable.

Speaker 4 (23:52):
Okay. You know, as a loyal listener of the Megapot,
will I, You're gonna I will take You're taking Miami.
You're taking Miami Dolphins, Miami plus the plus D three
to start things. Now, this is of all the games,
this is the one game I feel like the wrong
team is favored here. And I realize that a lot
of the numbers you bake in the whole body of
work for Miami. But when Tua has been healthy and

(24:14):
in with his weapons, good to go on offense. I
mean this team is not only is it better than
Houston offense, just purely offense versus offense. I mean it's
better by margin here I mean Tua and you know,
because he's lefty and it looks weird that nobody ever
wants to give him credit, but he's playing at a
you know, when he's been healthy, he's playing at a
top five level. Statistically. You look at the completion percentage
over expectation EPA for play. You know, last five weeks,

(24:37):
this offense has been a top ten unit as well.
And you're now getting in the matchup to watch heres
against the Houston D which has been solid top ten
all year, but it's been against this is AFC South
this week's schedule. They're kind of just coasting. And I'm
at least I'm at the point where I view Houston
as the biggest kind of fraud, theagazy team of the
potential playoff teams in the AFC, as much people might

(25:00):
look at like a Pittsburgh or at Denver, I'm just
not a believer in Houston whatsoever. A part of it
is the bolstering the defensive numbers against week competition, But
the other part of it is Houston as the worst
offensive line in football, thirtieth in run block win rate,
the dead last in quarterback crush is allowed TJ Strout
as a result of that, he's been a bottom five
quarterback by you know, by Van numbers compared to the

(25:22):
you know, the other qualified thirty two starting quarterbacks. And
you know, you have this this Miami team who should
have lost their season, should have ended. I usually like
betting on those teams when they get an absolute gift,
and now they've got this kind of new injection of
life here continuing to play at six and seven, and
they get to go indoors where it's a comfortable seventy
five degrees it Mike McDaniel will not be shivering his

(25:44):
pass off on the sidelines like he was in Lambo.
So do like the spot here for Miami catching the three.
I'm not really a believer at all in what Houston
is doing as much as they are off eight buy,
even though that sometimes tends to scare me off bets,
but not concerned here. I will take the three for Miami.
Two teams to meet that are pretty much.

Speaker 2 (26:01):
Eas Okay, so it's Miami Dolphins plus three for mister
Ben Wilson. You're pick Wilson. Hilson.

Speaker 3 (26:10):
Am I gonna have to sing the Miami Dolphins song
or you host.

Speaker 4 (26:12):
Dodd or yeah, Todd. I mean you you know I'd
laid it out.

Speaker 3 (26:15):
He doesn't when you prop when he doesn't do it,
he's gonna be a bitch about it. He's not gonna
do it.

Speaker 2 (26:19):
Here's the thing. I have an opportunity, just a second,
Go ahead, Willie, Now there'll be an opportunity.

Speaker 5 (26:26):
All right, I'm gonna go under forty two and a
half Steelers Eagles. Steelers Unders were kind to me in
the beginning of the year. I kind of got off
it once once. It lost for me once. But I
think this will be just typical Tom win Ball. He
knows he's not the better team. So you know, field position, punts,
kicking field goals, and they do have some experience against
mobile quarterbacks. They played Daniels early in the year, Jade

(26:49):
Daniels Washington, they played Lamar. Those two rushed for less
than fifty yards, right around fifty yards combined, So I
think they have the personnel to deal with running quarterbacks.
You can't really run all over Pittsburgh like Philly likes
to do. Philly had all sorts of issues throwing the ball.
I forget what Hurts ended up with last week, but
middle of the fourth quarter he had seventy seven yards passing.
That was just a strange performance, a strange game. And uh,

(27:10):
I just think weather could be an issue. There could
be some showers in the middle of this game late
Sunday night, early Sunday evening, and to me, this is
just you know, no pickings possibly for the Steelers. I
think you can kind of catch up to what Pittsburgh
does with these, you know, throwing up these deep balls
time and time again. That was not very effective last
week against Cleveland, where they averaged just over four yards

(27:31):
per play. So I'll go with like a twenty to fourteen,
twenty to seventeen type of game. I know it's gone
down a little bit. I'll still go under forty two
and a half Pittsburgh and Philly.

Speaker 2 (27:40):
Ben I'll ask you, is forty two and a half
fair or is it forty two this way? I don't
take any he there we go.

Speaker 4 (27:47):
Hey, I mean, I see I mean, I see two
books that have forty three, and I see three who
have forty two and a half, and I see two
to forty two. Forty two and a half. Fect that's right.
The metaforty two.

Speaker 2 (27:57):
That's very we got to get probably to.

Speaker 5 (27:58):
Mark me down for forty And if I don't pay attention,
no market is a loss.

Speaker 3 (28:02):
Got to keep an eye on them.

Speaker 2 (28:04):
It's just a way that we increase a couple of
wins a year and thusly keep the first place. If
you knock everybody down a point and a half when
they're not paying attention, that's a great idea, and it
really just tells you how important every point and a
half is, especially when you're trying to win the megapot.
So thank you will with that pick under forty two
and a half. Looking for a sloggy Pittsburgh a Steeler

(28:25):
Eagle game and grinded I actually a Laker. I don't
there on that.

Speaker 5 (28:28):
I don't know what the parking situation, what they charge
in Philly, but I didn't factor that into my handicapped time.

Speaker 2 (28:34):
Yes, and look, we don't do the parking when it's
in Philly. We only do it in Pittsburgh. That's where
we you know, that's where the parking can really come
into effect and on a defense. But anyways, I will
now do Gil Alexander's pick. And it's an interesting one,
is it. And it goes a little something like this

(28:55):
used in text ands, used in text s ands. His
life is gonna be minus three. We figured it out
when Ben took Miami, so Gilly can't give us any
shit later on. Okay, So the Gil Alexander pick is
the Houston Texans minus three against the Miami Dolphins, exactly

(29:17):
opposite mister Ben's pick. I'm not sure what he's thinking
because I kind of like Ben's pick at three. Will
would you like to make a you know, give a
glimmer of idea as to what mister Gilly Alexander is
thinking here and going Houston minus three because I agree
with Ben.

Speaker 5 (29:35):
My guess is he's not a believer in the Miami defense.
They got lucky to beat the Jets last week. The
Texans are off a bye, they can maybe regroup, and
he thinks this line is a little short, and I
think a lot of Gills picks come down to He
does this exercise where he guesses the lines without looking
at them. And if there's a discrepancy, he plays his instincts.
And his instincts have served him well. So my guess
is that's why he's going with the Texans. His picks,

(29:56):
by the way, Gills picks just for entertainment purposes. Only
this week he will be taking and O and three.
He did not submit his three picks in our group
chat in time, so owing three officially for Gilly tough.

Speaker 2 (30:08):
Listen, we don't need to Willie. We don't need to
give him an otheran three. We can give him his
regular score. He still ain't gonna catch up, so it's
all good.

Speaker 4 (30:15):
Uh do you feel like on Will's point? Though, there
are a lot of folks out there, I'm sure saw
that line and they're like, really, Houston only three, Like,
shouldn't that be you know, shouldn't that be higher for
a division leading team at home versus six and seventeen? Like?
I get I get it. I do.

Speaker 2 (30:30):
Okay, So let's go back to mister Ben Wilson for
pick number two. Go ahead, Benny, all right, pick number two.

Speaker 4 (30:39):
I'm going to go to the Tampa Bay LA Charger game.
I'm seeing this is three basically everywhere, right.

Speaker 2 (30:46):
Guys, that's what I'm seeing.

Speaker 4 (30:49):
Three Yeah, I will. I will take the three points.
With the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, there was some news coming
out yesterday justin Herbert he's dealing with a Lake contusion
Niche swelling. I'm not great for an already non explosive
offense to begin with, and this Charger team, they're coming
off with super physical, grinded out game against the Chiefs
that they should have probably won the game in or

(31:12):
at least we're very live to win out right Sunday night.
But more than anything, I'm early betting against the Chargers
here for a team that as they have seen a
step up in class in their opposing competition. The defensive
numbers which were so so good to start the year
and definitely felt at a little bit inflated by the competition,
well that's come back down to They're twenty third on
EBA for play defense the last five weeks as they

(31:33):
faced better offenses, and the offense does not have much
explosion on the Chargers side of it. We saw that,
especially with the wide receiver Lad McConkie out last week,
even though I expect him to go this week playing
less than one hundred percent Herbert, even if he does
go probably less than one hundred percent, And you now
get a Tampa team that's really turning the quarter. They're
playing good football right now. They are top ten on

(31:54):
defense last five weeks after they were just a dumpster
fire with all their injuries on the d line the
first part of the year. So the one thing you
can do against Tampa still is pass the ball deep
down field, and the Chargers don't have any sort of
explosiveness to really take advantage and counteract that. Tampa's strength
is in the run d So I do like that
angle for Tampa. Here is a top ten rush defense,

(32:15):
and with the way their offense is playing indoors Mike
Evans back and fully healthy wide receiver, and the way
the Charger defense has been trending to the negative, this
is a total coin flip game for me. You can't
give the Chargers of full home field advantage here, they
just don't have it. It's one and a half is generous,
and I make the teams basically dead. Even so, again,
I think this is a good position here for Tampa,

(32:36):
who they know they've got. They've got a great opportunity
here to to seal that NFC South. I think they're
up to minus two thirty five or so to win
the division and playing really good ball right now. So
I'll take the bucks plus the three.

Speaker 2 (32:49):
For those of you wondering who when Ben said there
might be injuries to mister Herbert, who the backup is,
it's Taylor Heinike and then after him Easton Stick. Great
name for a quarterback in the National Football League, Easton Stick.
So that's the Heineke Stick Show after Herbert. If Herbert

(33:09):
is banged around, So that'll be interesting. Ben, your second.

Speaker 4 (33:15):
Pick also would be my third pick. All right, I'm.

Speaker 2 (33:19):
Sorry, Will, No, no, no, I'm sorry. Will. You're saying my bet,
my bet. Sorry. I'm trying. You know, it's not easy
being professional running the show, also coming up with you know,
fun anecdotes and information. You know, it's it's very difficult
what I'm being asked to do here. But go ahead, Will.

Speaker 3 (33:38):
Judge Jags. What do we have for that line?

Speaker 2 (33:42):
Jets Jags? He asked us before, so we can't screw
them out of it. Let's see, Jets, Jags. We've got
I've I see a lot of I see about the
three and a half. What do you think mister ben.

Speaker 4 (33:57):
Yeah, consensus, looks like my last play was going to
be the Jaguars. You'll see full goes there. I've seen
Jets minus three and a half. Forty and a half
is the total.

Speaker 2 (34:09):
Go ahead.

Speaker 5 (34:09):
I'll stay away from that one. I'll go Cleveland plus four,
I believe is the consensus there. I'm a little concerned
that I haven't really benefited profited from this Kansas City
slump streak of just not covering spreads and maybe a
little bit late to the party. But we've seen Cleveland
play up in these scenarios. They beat Baltimore at home,
they beat Pittsburgh at home. They'll be motivated for the

(34:31):
fact that it is the Chiefs on the Chiefs just man,
their secondary is a mess, offensive line issues, and they
just kind of slog their way through these games. Win
by a field goal, take their winning go home. So
I don't love it, but I will take Cleveland here
plus the four.

Speaker 2 (34:46):
Kansas City on a one two, three, four, five, six
seven game against the spread losing streak in which they've
gone six wins and only one loss to the Josh
Allen fourth and two Buffalo Bills won them all but
did not cover any of them in that period, So
that's quite interesting. Hopefully, Willie, they don't get a turnaround

(35:09):
cover this week. I feel like that that whole thing
of the Chiefs just slogging to wins and not covering
has to come to it soon. But I thought it
was going to come to an end against the Chargers
and it didn't. So you know, maybe you can get
one more week out of it.

Speaker 5 (35:22):
Which part is going to come to an end quicker
where they get by these wins and they win but
they don't cover, or are they actually going to like
flirt with disaster and lose.

Speaker 3 (35:28):
One of these games which they've also been close to.
So I don't know which one they're more due.

Speaker 2 (35:32):
For, right well, that could be the other side of it, right,
six and one during those seven Okay, So I'll pick
my second pick now, and I'm gonna go with I mean,
I hate this board. I say this every week, but
I really hate this board. Arizona Cardinals. What do you
have for the total? Will it is?

Speaker 5 (35:54):
I'm seeing mostly forty six, but I know what the
Cardinals you like to bet over, so we'll call it
forty seven forty seven and a half.

Speaker 2 (36:00):
Maybe No, I'm seeing mostly forty ten.

Speaker 4 (36:02):
Then then I corroborate, h, yes you will. It's forty
six painted everywhere pretty much.

Speaker 2 (36:09):
So we'll go forty seven and a half. Excellent. Now,
I'm just kidding under forty six. Then you said forty six.
Right under forty six, I'm going to go under here.
You know, the Patriots have had a number of games
where they've gone over here recently, and I just feel like,
are they really good enough to keep having these over games.

(36:31):
I think their last under was the nineteen to three
game against the Bears. I could be wrong about that.
I could tell you that right now. The Bears played
them nineteen to three. I think it was four weeks ago.
Let's see it was New England. Yeah, that was four
weeks ago. Since then, they've gone over against the Rams

(36:51):
twenty eight, twenty two, over against Miami thirty four to fifteen,
and over in the Indianapolis over forty one, and that
in the last game they played. I just feel we
might see a return to normalcy in the Patriots games
where we'll see a lot of running. And I feel
like we're gonna see more running out of the Cardinals,
because when the Cardinals were really starting to light it up.
It was a lot with James Connor on the ground,

(37:12):
and they were just grinding the wins and playing good
defense like they did again and that Bears win. I
believe they won like twenty nine to nine or something
like that. But I just have a feeling that this
pat this run of Pats overs is a little overdone.
And to see a number like forty six on a
Pats game, just to me, it feels too high. And

(37:33):
you know, like I said, there's reason for it. You know,
the last three games that the Patriots games have been,
they've been good on offense and haven't really been stopping people,
and that's probably why the line got up this high.
But you know, we've seen a number of Cardinal games
that have been you know, that game against the Charges.
I believe it was like seventeen sixteen or something, and
the Pats, you know, typically want to run the ball

(37:54):
a lot and not you know, expose Drake may too bad,
although he's been pretty good. So I just have a
feel here that the Patriots can't keep going over. And
at forty six, it's just to me, it's just too
high for a Patriots game. So I'm gonna go under
forty six in the Pats game. For my second pick, now,
I will give you Gil Alexander, our fearless leader who

(38:16):
cannot be with us today. His second pick is the
Detroit Lions minus the two and a half. Guys, would
you like to venture as to why mister Gil Alexander
likes the Lions minus two and a half in this
huge showdown? I mean, this is as big as they

(38:38):
get Lions Bills four to twenty five on Sunday. This
is Appointment TV. You better be there for this one. Guys,
why would mister Gil Alexander like the Lions minus two
and a half?

Speaker 5 (38:49):
Well, Gilly was against the Bills last week and he
is stutely pointing out that the Bills have a vulnerability
against the run to let you running on him and
Detroit off of a rest here has a really good
running game. And again with Gilly, a lot of times
it's just the blink test of what do you think
the line is going to be? What is the actual line?
And he plays it accordingly. So my guess is that's

(39:10):
why he's going to lay it with Detroit. He probably
expected the line to be three or three and a
half and thinks this line is a little short. Again,
we wish Gil luck on his picks, but if this
does win, it will be vacated.

Speaker 4 (39:21):
I also do wonder too the I mean, we've had
to downgrade Detroit for all the defensive injuries, but even
despite that, I mean, I just look at the last
month or so, there's still i mean, defensively per play
and some of this has to do with turnovers, but
they've still been performing at a really high level. Like
the drop off has not been maybe as stark as
better as they're sort of baking into here. And as

(39:42):
a result of that, Buffalo will point it out with
the defense as bad as it has been, especially indoors
here Detroit with the extra ress, Like I certainly thought
three would have been a fair number, and you are
getting somewhat of a discount here. So I feel like
we've see this happen. Though sometimes when it's sort of
like that, like that say, groups think, but when you
start to see line to move against the team because

(40:04):
it's you know, cluster injuries, and then people kind of
pick up on it and they're like, oh, yeah, well,
I guess that makes a lot of sense. Let's start
betting against them. And then Detroit just finds either push
or with the exception of the Bears game of course,
the one time I'm on them put you know, push
or cover basically every single week, so I think that
sometimes tends to happen here where we kind of forget,
like Detroit is so uniquely built to overcome a lot
of that. I understand why it would be on it.

(40:26):
It's gonna be a great game. It's a total kind
of one of my games out I don't want to
be a part of, just because I think both teams
have a lot going for them and a lot to
play for here, so I'll stay away, but I definitely
lean Detroit.

Speaker 2 (40:38):
It's interesting because the I believe this is the highest total.
Will you can correct me if I'm wrong? Is this
the highest table? Now? Fifty would you say?

Speaker 5 (40:46):
It's got to be the highest total and the highest
total probably by two or three points.

Speaker 2 (40:49):
Yeah, fifty four and a half I think is the
highest total we've seen this year. And doesn't this just
scream what will happen here? Is what'll be ten to three?
Late second quarter? You know, because everybody thought, oh it's
going over. They saw the Bills game against the Rams
last week forty four to forty two. They saw the
lines with their crazy offense, it scores a million points,

(41:11):
and everyone's saying, oh my, how can it go under?
It has to go over, right, It'll be ten three,
like four minutes left in the second quarter, and then
the points will explode in a will like land, like
fifty or something, you know, and it'll be a great
in game opportunity if you can, if you can take
a discounted line on the over that that just to
me a lot of times that's what happens on these

(41:32):
gigantic overs, when when you everybody thinks it's gonna be over,
and then they've made adjustments to start the game to
slow them down, and then somehow it picks back up.
But especially with.

Speaker 5 (41:43):
A total that high, if you have a four or
five minute drive and it kind of fizzles out and
then he punt down to like, you know, the five,
and then there's another three or four minutes, all of
a sudden, you know, you look up, there's five minutes
left in the first quarter. It's almost impossible to get
to such a high number. And especially if Campbell has
one of these you know, aggressive of streaks in him
where he goes for a fourth and goal from the
two or the three doesn't get it, then you know

(42:04):
Buffalo's backed up. It's just everything kind of has to
go right to get one of those totals. If they
do have a slow like a slow star offensively and
the total dips, I would be looking to jump in
over because I do think it is.

Speaker 3 (42:15):
A good matchup for both offenses here.

Speaker 4 (42:18):
How many Yeah, it plays such a premium on the
red zone performance. So yeah, your margin for so is
so small. I was going to point out first quarter total.
I'm starting to see some ten and a half stop
and they'll be juiced under. But like even if you
take it, you know, ten at like under even money,
I don't think that's a pat to play whatsoever. It
be super hype games, and all we're talking about to

(42:39):
the edge is it's it's running the wall. So you
figure that clock is going to be moving, especially early.
I would not would not mind that whatsoever, And then
set yourself up a little in game over there that
think dips back into the into the low fifties.

Speaker 2 (42:50):
Three. Okay, So that's Gilly's second pick the lines minus
the two and a half, and we go to my
friend Ben Wilson for pick number three.

Speaker 4 (43:02):
Well, I will go to I think I teased it earlier,
the New York Jetropolitans and the Jacksonville Jaguars and all
that will do the rebuttal of the second because I
think will you were prepared to go Jets minus three?
If if I'm reading the body language correctly, okay, so
I will take I will take the three to a
half with Jacksonville. And we're at a point where, looking

(43:22):
at just numbers, the last month and a half or so,
no defense has been worse on a per play basis
than the New York Jets. I can't help a wonder too.
Like you play this game against Miami. They clearly got
up for the game. We're live. Should have have won
that game, probably should have won the game. And I
thought Miami was completely dead in the third quarter of
that game. But when you see the way the Jets

(43:44):
continued time and again, unable to play a full sixty minutes, really, no,
you know, no life defensively, still a terrible tackling team.
And now you go like it's a second straight week
staying down in Florida on the road. Where's the motivation
really for a team that's completely dead against now a
jacksonvilleam who was sort of weird. They don't fire Doug
Peterson yet, they've they're kind of playing a hard form

(44:05):
even though everybody knows he'll be gone at the end
of the year. It's a very young team. They're playing
for jobs next season. Mac Jones knows kind of his
last gasp to make any sort of statement that he
should still be on an NFL field. I don't think
he should be. He probably won't, but he at least
has that opportunity right now. Jacksonville can at least run
the ball relatively relatively efficiently. That's been the strength here
at I like Tank Bigsby is a hard runner, and

(44:27):
this you figure this will be a It's a forty
and a half total, so low scoring, close to the
best sort of game where I don't see any either
offense producing a ton of explosives. So if I'm getting
the three in the hook at home here with Jacksonville,
who very quietly have covered back to back games as
home underdogs, and it's as the same price as and
granted the same price as the Houston game. Jacksonville was

(44:48):
three and a half point dogs against Houston at home,
the caveat being Trevor Lawrence was expected to play and
did play in that game, So I get it. You
can't make it a total apples to Apple's comparison there,
But Jacksonville the kind of that as a team a
little bit to feisty now that they're totally dead and
have nothing to play for. So I will take the
hook with them as we are running out of weaks
gentlemen to bet against the New York Jets team, even

(45:09):
if will disagree with me?

Speaker 2 (45:11):
Here is it me? First? Do you want I want
to disagree with them? No?

Speaker 5 (45:21):
I just I feel like it is such a typical
Jets move to win a game or two here and
just screw up their draft position after a miserable year
Jets fans three. Yeah, that's why the hook is keeping
me off. And if it were three, I would lay
it with the Jets, because I do you think will?

Speaker 2 (45:36):
You guys are aware that Mac Jones is the quarterback
and by the way, they had no business winning that
game against Tennessee. Regardless of what happened at the end,
they should have been down ten nothing early the game
would have been over. But Mac Jones is the quarterback. Uh,
he does not have the Alabama offensive line, so I'm
just one of their receivers.

Speaker 4 (45:54):
Todd, how did you like Doug Peterson kicking a field
goal fourth and fourth of Tennessee five down six to
nothing when you're you're two and ten against the three
and nineteen. That was that was freaking hilarious, Like what, like,
what are you doing? So Doug, Doug Peterson plays for
the cover man?

Speaker 2 (46:07):
That's all I know, God, Dougie. Okay, Willy, it's your
third pick. I am going to get back, actually WILLI
but Willy, before we do your third, let's do Gilly's third,
and then you guys can comment on this third and
then you do your third. Let's do Gilly's pick. Is
the care Relina Panthers? I believe it's two and a

(46:29):
half most places. Is that correct?

Speaker 3 (46:33):
I'm seeing a lot of threes. But if we're going
to go two and a half, that's okay.

Speaker 2 (46:37):
Yeah, well you tell me what what's the first?

Speaker 4 (46:42):
I see five two and a halfs and three three,
So I think that's perfect still half CareLine.

Speaker 2 (46:49):
Yeah, so Gilly, we're giving you the extra half point.
Don't start crying when we Yeah, just so the listeners know.

Speaker 5 (46:57):
Todd did just send me a text fifteen minutes before
the show that hey, I'm not going to mention on
the air, but let's try and.

Speaker 3 (47:02):
Screwgill on these lines. So I'm just doing the Tod.

Speaker 2 (47:06):
But we're not screwing him. So you told me to
screw You told me we should try to screw I
definitely did that. That's my friend Will. Okay. So Carolina
Panthers minus two and a half. I guess he just
feels like, Hey, this Carolina Panthers has turned the corner
and all of a sudden there's a decent team and
you know the Cowboys. What is there to say about

(47:27):
the Cowboys there? You know, dumpster fire your guys thoughts
on on Gillies Carolina two.

Speaker 5 (47:32):
And a half, I agree with it. That's going to
be my third pick. I thought it was split between three.
The first couple I checked, We're three. That's why I
thought that was you know, that's a key number at three.
I thought it was too expensive. But Dallas just had
any hope, and they did have hope. If you heard
Parsons after the Thanksgiving game, Hey we're going to make
a run. We're coming You know we can win out
and make the playoffs, that kind of thing. And they

(47:54):
had a chance to beat Cincinnati. They should have beat
in Cincinnati to lose in that fashion. Now you have
a short week on the road against the Panthers team
that's playing inspired, they have some enthusiasm, a young coach,
a young quarterback, where hey, let's win some games, let's
build towards next year. I just think Carolina has played
pretty well here. It doesn't feel comfortable laying points with
a team that's been this bad for this long, but

(48:15):
since two and a half, I will lay here with
the Carolina Panthers, and boy, they should have won that
game against the Eagles last week.

Speaker 2 (48:22):
Let's be fair. If the guy catches the ball, which
I thought he you know live, you didn't really see
that he bobbled it. It sure looked like.

Speaker 5 (48:31):
Five seconds for Philly to get in field goal range.
And there were a couple of times where Philly I
thought could have given them the knockout punch. They just
got really conservative and they don't trust their kicker, and
that game was a little weird on both ends. But yes,
you're you're absolutely right.

Speaker 2 (48:43):
If there was Carolina, if there was ever a game
thirty years from now and we do the documentary on
NFL point Shaving, we will definitely be looking at that
football game. Eagles minus I believe they were fourteen or
thirteen and a half.

Speaker 5 (48:56):
Oh man, I gave they were one of my picks
on the megapot at twelve and happened he closed it
and yeah, never never a chance although were it was?

Speaker 4 (49:05):
It was what third and four at the thirty four
and that was when Philly is up six and Sirianni
for whatever, like, you have the worst run defense basically
ever on the other side, there's no physicality for Carolina.
You passed it was you passed third and four incomplete,
and then you settle for a field goal when you
have a shaky kicker and you know it's swirling wind
out doors like it. None of it added up. It

(49:27):
made zero sense. It was a yeah, I'm sorry, goo ahead.
I thought you were done talking about Well just just
for a guy who's been so so soaked on the
aggressive scale and then to pick that spot against the
set you know, this the sad, bad Carolina bottom five
team to suddenly get super conservative. It just did not
make anything.

Speaker 5 (49:44):
And I don't know if you guys were watching, but
I thought I was going to get lucky and get
a little front door cover because Carolina had like third
and eleven on their own one or two, and we
were still north of a two minute warning. Like, man,
they can't They probably can't punt here if they do
one of these you know, four and out turnover on downs,
maybe Philly punches one inbaby would have gone for two.
I'm sure they would have. So it was interesting where
Philly had their chances to cover. But you your point

(50:06):
as well, taken Toddy.

Speaker 2 (50:08):
That game was a microcosm of my entire week. I
had Saquon over twenty and a half carries and he
ended up with twenty exactly. So that was basically a
microcosm of everything that could go wrong went wrong. So anyways, okay,
everybody's given three picks, including our friend Gil Alexander. I
will now give my third pick, and it's going to

(50:29):
be that same football game. It's interesting, what do you
guys have for the over under? I'm seeing forty three.

Speaker 4 (50:40):
Three forty three basically everywhere.

Speaker 2 (50:43):
Yeah, okay, I'm going to go over the forty three
here in this Carolina Panther game against the Dallas Cowboys.
I think Carolina's offense has improved a lot. We've just
been talking about it, and you know, they've they've They
don't look like the Carolina Panthers of early in the season.
They look like a real team. They can actually move

(51:04):
the ball a little bit. I'm not impressed with Dallas's
defense ever since the complete collapse, or actually for that matter,
they've been bad all year. I mean, who who do
they really play well defensively against? The Cowboys don't really
play well defensively. And then on the other side of
the ball. It's not like Carolina's defense has been the resurgence.
The resurgence has been the offense. The defense is still pretty,

(51:25):
you know, not great. So I don't see why Cooper
Rush and the Boys, you know, can't you know, get
some points going here? Maybe can can they get us
to twenty and if we get twenty four to twenty
Carolina or twenty four to twenty one Carolina or twenty
four to twenty one Cowboys, I just feel like over
forty three is doable. Now that Carolina has what you

(51:46):
would call a normal offense, you know, I don't see
why they can't score the ball against the Cowboys, especially
they're at home, and you know, again, Carolina's defense is
not exactly you know, the eighty five Bears. So I'm
going to go over forty three Carolina for my third pick.

Speaker 4 (52:06):
That five game cover streak for the Panthers. I found
this fascinating. The Carolina is actually fourteenth in total offense
in that span, which is just if you were to
have told us a week six the Carolina would have
a five week span, would it be a top fifteen offense,
We'd be like, no way. But that's that is pretty
telling where this is a team is turned.

Speaker 2 (52:25):
Okay, So that's the end of all the picks. Now
we go to the teaser category, Ben, our best six
point two team teaser. Please, we've not been good this
year on the teasers after having a unbelievable year last
year when I was in first place at thirteen and
five and teasers and everybody else did really well as well. Ben,

(52:47):
can you give us a good two team six point teaser?

Speaker 4 (52:51):
I will. I Honestly, I don't know about you, guys.
I feel like part of I've had a decent year
in NFL's year, in part of it is I have
not playing teasers anymore. I think a portly is because
we've just gotten priced out of it in Vegas. Like
the pricing sucks now you just can't It's like minus
one thirty minimum. There's just no point. So in a
weird way, that's kind of saved my season. That's maybe
a side point for a different discussion, but I will

(53:14):
go Washington Commanders Gil Alexander's Commanders down to the minus
one and a half in New Orleans with a team
it was a great spot to have a buy in
to me for Washington with being tied to the latest
bye week of the year, with a young team, super
banged up, time to regroup. Now you are getting with
either the Spencer Rattler or the Jy Cayner experience indoors

(53:36):
for New Orleans, I think we've seen the true colors
of what the Saints team actually is after they got
the brief, the brief coaching bump with the Darren Rizzy
interim with the special teams coordinator getting the bump up.
But this is a good spot here for Washington, still
with a lot to play for trying to lock up
one of those wild card spots in the NFC. So
Washington to me, I do have confidence they win the game,

(53:58):
and then I'll pair them with the Tennessee Titans. I
will go, may make sure this is a non long
teaser to upset the mass book. So I'll go Tennessee
plus eleven against Cincinnati at home. And it's really fascinating
the coaching comparisons here where Brian Callahan and Zach Taylor,
their staffs are both super intertwined. You know, Callahan came
over from Cincinnati. Him and I saw the report the

(54:20):
other day. Like him and Zach Taylor text like every
day basically, or at least like multiple times a week,
so there's a ton of familiarity Cincinnati. Anytime you can
get double digits against the team who has an awful
defense and can't stop anybody, and is also coming off
a short week and whose quarterbacks home was just broken
into and who is somewhat banged up with pat ankle
and wrists, stuff still kind of lingering for Joe Burrow.

(54:41):
I at least do believe Tennessee can keep this within
a double digit margin. So I'll go Commander's minus one
and a half Titans plus eleven.

Speaker 2 (54:49):
Now that it's interesting that you said that, because the
girl who is is she the security guard or is
she the girlfriend or is she the I'm not what
is her cat wory exactly?

Speaker 4 (55:02):
As an investigative journalist, I should be on metobe to
figure this out.

Speaker 3 (55:08):
It appeared as podcast at all, Ben like, how do
you not know this? What's going on?

Speaker 4 (55:14):
Based on the the Joe Burrow press cops on the
other day, I'm going to go in the limit say
he was not thrilled with that information that came out,
that's all.

Speaker 2 (55:21):
But what But my question is was this his girlfriend
or is this his security guard or is this just
his friend friend?

Speaker 4 (55:30):
I'm not I don't know. I think we I think
we categorize it as they have been friends for a
while and who knows what else is going on behind
the scenes.

Speaker 2 (55:38):
Whoa whoa, whoa, whoa whoa. That sounded like a d
jon a Carrington remark right there.

Speaker 4 (55:44):
But anyway of course, to leave at the top to
go to that.

Speaker 2 (55:51):
Yes, yes, leave it to me to go to the
bottom of the barrel. Good job by me. Okay, Willie
your best two T team teaser or any thoughts on
NFL players security at their houses.

Speaker 5 (56:06):
I'll use Washington like my friend Benjamin, I'd be surprised
if they didn't win this game. They still kind of
need to win because if they ever tripped up and
lost this game, it's not like they're a lot to
make the playoffs. So they need this game. And the
Saints are just a mess right now. So Washington will
be the first one. There's a lot of options here.
I'll actually go Seattle. I almost made Seattle on my
picks if it were three, but it's mostly two and

(56:26):
a half, so I will take Seattle up to eight
and a half in what should be a close game
against Green Bay. So Seattle and the Commanders is my
two teamer.

Speaker 2 (56:37):
I don't know if we've said that. The reason obviously,
the Commander's line is so high as Spencer Rattler is
going to be the quarterback I believe for the Saints
and he is not. Is it him or is it
Jake Hayner? Is it Spencer Rattler? Who cares? Really, it
doesn't really matter. They both stink, so it's regardless of
who it is, it's bad for the Saints. I also

(56:58):
have the Commander's minus one and a half for the
same reasons you guys were talking about. I have the
Vikings down to what do you have the Vikings at
six and a half or seven?

Speaker 3 (57:09):
What do you see in Ben, I'm seeing mostly six
and a half.

Speaker 4 (57:13):
Yeah, it's pretty much that's split.

Speaker 2 (57:18):
Yeah, I'll take the Vikings. I'll take the Vikings down
to a half for my second leg at home. I
just don't believe that old Caleb is going to get
it together on the road in a tough place to play.
They played just a couple of weeks ago, and the
Vikings handled them pretty good, even though there was a
late game collapse that ended up I believe the game

(57:40):
went into overtime, but the Vikings dominated that game, and
I don't see why they shouldn't dominate this game at home.
The Bears are a dumpster fire, let's be honest. I
just don't see it with this team. You know, I've
been skeptical of Caleb for the beginning of the year,
and I've been pretty much proven right. They're just not
ready for prime time. I'm gonna go with the Vikings

(58:01):
minus a half as a second leg. Gil Alexander, the
fearless leader of this podcast. In his two team teaser,
he also has the commander, so it's a sweep. Everybody
loves the Commanders minus the one and a half, probably
for the same reasons. And his second leg is the

(58:23):
La Rams tonight, so he's going somewhat against me in
getting eight and a half with the Rams. The Rams
plus eight and a half. And wait, I'm hearing something
right now? Is that?

Speaker 4 (58:38):
No?

Speaker 2 (58:39):
I thought I was hearing something from the Rams game.
Note it's actually it's actually from the Lions game. I
believe I'm trying to find one where. Oh wait a second, No,
it's in the Carolina game. My fault.

Speaker 4 (58:51):
Here's what I'm hearings on red zone. Can't figure out
the right thing go to?

Speaker 2 (58:57):
It's not that easy, Ben, Let's go. Twenty nine, twenty
one the Dallas uh. The Carolina Panthers lead the Dallas Cowboys,
Cooper Rush bringing them all down the field. There's twelve
seconds left the Cowboys at the eight yard line. Rush
rolls to the right. He's got to run. The slowest
quarterback in the league is gonna try.

Speaker 4 (59:17):
To get to the pilot.

Speaker 2 (59:18):
Hey guys, touchdown, Cowboys. Looks like they're gonna lose this one.

Speaker 6 (59:23):
Twenty nine, twenty seven, Jym, your thoughts about both Will
and Gilly both picking the Carolina Panthers minus two and
a half and going down on a Cooper Rush eight
yard scamper to the pylon.

Speaker 2 (59:37):
Yeah, that's what I'm hearing.

Speaker 4 (59:38):
That was brilliant, Stot. That was as as a play
by play guy first and foremost, I you know Chef's
kiss really by.

Speaker 2 (59:46):
The way, I really really well, I really would be
the best because i'd be I could do that. I
could do the regular Bob Costas, you know, Dick Enberg,
you know, Joe Buck. But then I could also give
you the play by play from like the radio home
team announcers with is what I love the most. I'm
always doing the radio play by play guys. When they
go Jema's out a touchdow Was, they go crazy.

Speaker 7 (01:00:08):
Those guys are awesome because they're like, you know, they're
like Jimmy passes.

Speaker 4 (01:00:11):
It over to Jay like it's his all first names.
Like it's just so it's a little HOMERSM. I should
watch the people should watch the show. People haven't seen
the show. Brockmeyer that that show is just awesome. Where
it's it's about. It's about a disgraced play by play
guy trying to make it back to the major leagues,
the main character so fricking funny and like Bob cost Is,

(01:00:31):
Joe Buckep cameos and it is, it isn't it's a
whole I think it's on I f C. There's a
scene where where Brockmeyer start. He meets this woman who
works in this minor league front office and it's a
sex scene and he starts. He starts doing play by
play and he's like, he's like in Brockmere.

Speaker 7 (01:00:45):
Assumes the missionar area and he and oh there's a
stray finger the caster and he is into it and
she's like, please stop, please, It's so funny, so good
I do.

Speaker 2 (01:00:55):
I actually do do play by play in real life.
Sometimes if I'm at lunch with my friend down full
floods or something, we're.

Speaker 6 (01:01:01):
Like, oh, skippy around the soups and he's I was
going for the pizza.

Speaker 2 (01:01:07):
So you know that's always a good time. Okay. Anyways,
we got our teasers done and now we go to
our biggest favorite to lose. So I guess the candidates
are Gilly loves to do the candidates. The candidates are
the commanders. We don't think they're gonna lose, of course,
they're at seven and a half and all, So would

(01:01:32):
you say Minnesota Viking six and a half? Oh, the
Ravens of course at sixteen. I doubt anybody's gonna be
picking that one. Vikings. I guess at six and a
half we can put in there. And I guess because
we only have three, we can throw in the Cardinals
at six as well. Guys, biggest, biggest one of the
faves to lose? You who do you think? Minnesota? Yeah?

Speaker 4 (01:01:57):
I was gonna say, well, I think pretty shocky we
put I would say Minnesota only because Todd put them
in his teaser and that means that means tread very carefully.

Speaker 5 (01:02:06):
Now with Minnesota, and they gave up over seven yards
per play last week to Atlanta, Arizona out gained to
by two over two hundred yards. I know it's a
pretty looking record eleven and two, but they've quietly not
played as well the past few weeks, going against your
own will.

Speaker 4 (01:02:21):
Are you mentally prepared for when the Vikings are probably
laying like three and a half in Tampa for Wild
Card Weekend? In the game it will definitely be like
the early Saturday game. Are you mentally prepared for that?

Speaker 5 (01:02:31):
Yet Ah, sure, everyone, I'm just I'm glad everyone has
just handed the division to the Lions.

Speaker 2 (01:02:36):
It's over.

Speaker 5 (01:02:38):
Vikings are a wild card, So yes, I'm making my
plans right now for wildcard weekend because there's no chance
the Vikings could come up and steal this division none.

Speaker 2 (01:02:46):
I could sense that he's a little disappointed in that
kind of comment, Ben, because he had the same tone
when he discusses WNBA matters. So that was very interesting,
that little tone that we got from Lily. I guess
the team to lose get I could see the Cardinals
losing to the Patriots, so maybe I'll go with something
a little different. Cards maybe to lose to the Patriots.

(01:03:09):
And then our friend Gil Alexander has the team most
likely lose Minnesota as well, so he's with you guys
on the Vikings to lose. And then we go to
the last question, which is team game you want no
part of? Gilly wants no part of the LA Chargers
Tampa Bay game, and you guys, what do you guys

(01:03:32):
most the one game that if you had to bet
them all but you could pass on one of them,
which one would you want to pass on? Will?

Speaker 5 (01:03:41):
I will go with I mean, there's a bunch of
options here. I'm not betting the Titans anymore, and I'm
not looking to lay points on the road with Cincy,
who I know they covered last week, but that was
extremely fortunate.

Speaker 3 (01:03:51):
So Bengals Titans a pretty easy cross off for me.

Speaker 4 (01:03:54):
I'm glad you're out of but you're out of titsan ontims.
You completed yes program? Oh boy, Yeah, as.

Speaker 2 (01:04:03):
A fellow rock Bottom, that's what happens.

Speaker 4 (01:04:08):
Yeah, I will go to the late the Lake. We
have a Monday night doubleheader, which is weird for Week fifteen,
but I will go to the late Monday night game
Atlanta and Las Vegas. It's weird that there's the Raiders
are kind of slow playing, like they're they're saying, oh,
Aiden account that he might go even though he I
mean you saw him go into the air casting gets
just annihilated on that play in the fourth quarter, and

(01:04:30):
you're like, oh, he's done for the year, and now
they're saying you might play and but there's no way
I want to lay points on the road with this
Atlanta team that is just completely down the drain. And
it's almost like we we we forgot because some time
passed that Raheem Morris still a really really bad football coach,
and Atlanta has reflected that down his home stretch here.
But if I were to take points at the Raiders,
there's a pretty good chance I end up with Desmond

(01:04:51):
Ritter and nobody wants that, so he's stay away from me.
Falcons Raiders.

Speaker 2 (01:04:58):
I think I would say the game I want no
part of is the Bronnis, the Cleave Bronni's and the
Kansas City Chiefs, just for all the reasons we were
talking about before, which is just you know, jamis is
so hard to call, and you know, are the Chiefs
going to do it again? I just have to stay

(01:05:19):
away from that Chiefs game. So that'll be my pick
for game I want no part of. Guys, I think
we did a decent job. It wasn't, you know, up
to the standards of when we have Gilly Alexander. And
I know, Ben, you wanted to be on with the
great Gail Alexander as everyone should. You know, Basically to me,
it's Brian Gumbel, Brent Musburg, or Gilly Alexander in some order.

(01:05:43):
And you know, I just I appreciate you coming on,
Ben to help us out Willie outstanding job as usual.
Hopefully we were able to pull our weight to get
us through to week through week fifteen. Guys, any last thoughts.

Speaker 3 (01:05:58):
No, I'm glad Ben came on.

Speaker 5 (01:06:00):
Know you push back at the idea of having a
mind like he's more of a play by play guy,
doesn't have that many opinions.

Speaker 3 (01:06:04):
I told you be good. He was good, So I'm
glad we did this, agreed.

Speaker 2 (01:06:07):
I mean, if we were talking Grand Canyon basketball, then
of course I would go right to Ben Wilson and
ask him about Grand Canyon basketball or maybe Northern Arizona,
you know, you know.

Speaker 4 (01:06:18):
College game the other day.

Speaker 5 (01:06:22):
In all seriously, Ben was like, I can't wait to
be live betting college basketball with Todd during the pod.
But the college basketball schedule, guys did not, uh, you know,
comply us with a game here. Give us a game here,
which we usually especially like around the holidays a couple
of weeks out from Christmas. We've been getting one or
two day games a week here, or one game a
day like yesterday was Baylor. A couple of days ago

(01:06:44):
we got one. So unfortunately we couldn't be live betting
some random college hoops game.

Speaker 4 (01:06:48):
I feel cheated. I feel like I need my appearance
has not been fully has not been fully completed. I
will just say that my last st let the record
show the first ever, the first ever Fox I got
to do, first national game for me. I will never
forget this because I was doing it was Colorado Wazoo,
it was it was the late it was like the
eleven pm Eastern tip Ohrol in Washington after the NFC

(01:07:10):
Championship game, which that year was Rams and Niners. And
you know, I'm doing this obviously like you're you're nervous,
but you're excited. It's your first not your call to
the big leagues, right, like first national game. So I
get through the first I think two media timeouts, and
you know, look at my phone and you're expecting all
these texts from like family and friends and stuff, and
instead I've got like eight texts from Todd and it's like, hey,
you're doing the Colorado Wazoo game. I've got in game

(01:07:31):
over one forty three and a half. Then I just
took some in game under one forty nine and a
half and now I got I got. I just added
more one forty six and a half. But I think
I m too.

Speaker 3 (01:07:39):
I think I remember I d MD that night too.

Speaker 2 (01:07:41):
I remember that.

Speaker 4 (01:07:43):
Anyway, we were excited.

Speaker 2 (01:07:44):
I get excited when I see when I see a
Fox Sports one and it's Ben Wilson calling the game
with some non descript former mid major college coach like
Jack Hartenstein and I made up that name. I'm sure
there was a Jack Hardenstein, but it's it's.

Speaker 8 (01:07:59):
Ben Kou Ben Cooper, and I mean Ben Wilson here
with Jack Hartenstein calling FS one late game it's Wazuo
playing the app Lade Christian.

Speaker 2 (01:08:10):
Whatever their day is. I always get excited when I
see Ben on the on the FS one, So that's.

Speaker 4 (01:08:17):
I'll be doing a whack tournament. ESPN Plus will hopefully
get another game on on big ESPN like we got
last year and a lot of a lot of a
lot of fun times with the in game betting todd.
So that's because.

Speaker 2 (01:08:30):
I've noticed ESPN has less games and they're pushing everything
the ESPN Plus, which doesn't really bother me because I,
you know, I bring my little gadgets. You know, you
can go buy like a kindle, like a cheap ass
kindle for like forty bucks, or some kind of tablet
for like fifty bucks. So I have like a couple
of them that I bring into the book with me
and I line them up and that way I have

(01:08:50):
all my ESPN Plus feeds going well, I'm watching the games,
so anyways, that's for crazy people like myself. But then
you get to watch Southeast Louisiana again La Fayette Louisiana
and you get a feel for why you know it's
it's you know, one team's one for twelve from three,
the other team's three for fifteen from three, and you're
watching and you're like, how can every single three point

(01:09:12):
or not going? It's unbelievable.

Speaker 5 (01:09:14):
Even though I tail your pick seriously though to not
even though I tell most your picks, how are you
doing the season, it feels like you're doing well?

Speaker 4 (01:09:19):
Well?

Speaker 2 (01:09:20):
No, I don't think so. I don't think I'm doing
as well. I mean I I usually I put them
in my WhatsApp group and I and I do the
records every so often. And I'm down right now on
the year in college basketball, I did have a real
slow start. So ever since my slow start, I've been
picking it up a little bit. But I had a
bad Sunday, But I did pretty well yesterday, I've really

(01:09:43):
enjoyed the uh the late game. The late game over
inflation of the number late is a very interesting angle.
It's hard to get the bet end sometimes. But what
I mean by that is when you have these games,
you know, lined in the one fifties and it's a
close game late, the game typically slows down in the
last eight to sixty eight minutes. So keep an eye

(01:10:03):
on that if you like to bet college basketball live,
because that's always fun times. And we'll be looking for
Ben Wilson on the call because that always makes it
more fun. Jack, what did you think of that three porter?
This is Ben Wilson. Anyways, guys, this is Todd Wishneff
signing off from the cork attic here at Megapod Center.
I want to think Willia and bed at our fearless leader,

(01:10:24):
Jelly Alexander. I hope you all have a great time
this week with carol Ana Midas two and a half
not covering and that'll do it.

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