Beating The Book: 2024 Week 17 NFL MegaPod Betting Preview

Gill Alexander, Todd Wishnev (VSiN Contributor), Will Hill (VSiN Contributor), and Matt Brown (VSiN Host), break down all of the Week 17 NFL betting action! The quartet gives you their best bets of the week, best teaser options, which big favorite is most likely to lose outright, and the game they want no part of.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
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(00:20):
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Come check it down man. Thursday morning, December twenty fourth,
twenty twenty four. It is the Beating the Book podcast
Christmas Eve morning, and we're still doing a megapo week
seventeen in the NFL, Becata two Christmas Day games. We

(00:41):
got a game on Thursday as well, and we got
three on Saturday.

Speaker 2 (00:46):
Gil, I don't see your Christmas tree? Where's your Where's
I don't see your Christmas tree in the background.

Speaker 1 (00:50):
It's in San Francisco. And by the way, it's the
first time in my whole life that a Christmas tree
has ever been in my place of them live it
by place of President.

Speaker 3 (01:02):
So twenty twenty four.

Speaker 1 (01:03):
There it is, Thank you Christians. For a while, I'm here. Okay,
before we start, By the way, you already know if
you're watching on Twitter, that's Todd Wishnev from his mom's
quirk Attic in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. You see that surface behind him.
It's actual cork. Even though Todd denies it, Will Hill
from a Connecticut at not V will Hill on Twitter.

(01:25):
Todd is at t wish Nev will host the A
Bit More podcast. Todd is the star of Showtimes docuseries
Action and he's very angry at Matt Lafleur, which we
will discuss here momentarily, and then Matt and then Matt.
Matt Brown everybody Vsent hosts with his annual appearance on
the megapod. He's almost stormy every Thursday, so usually he

(01:46):
can't do this because we're doing the Strange week this
week with Tuesday Megapod. He is kind enough to join us.
How you all do it? Thank you, Matt, appreciate it.

Speaker 3 (01:54):
Man rock and rolling man, feeling good, glad to be here.

Speaker 1 (01:57):
What's on your sweatshir as I say.

Speaker 2 (02:00):
Oh, my buddy is a fight manager, So it's it's
Ruby Sports and Entertainment. It's the name of his Yeah,
the name of his management company.

Speaker 1 (02:10):
Okay, let's start with what Todd was just talking about
before we got on air or the official podcast, which
is Todd had Green Bay under twenty seven and a
half total points yesterday in the game, and they had
a four.

Speaker 3 (02:23):
But I took it.

Speaker 4 (02:24):
I took it when it was twenty four to nothing.
They came down, they kicked the field goal. I knew
they weren't going to be playing very aggressively on offense. First,
the idiot Saints, who have been punting every time on
fourth and long, now decide on fourth and seven.

Speaker 5 (02:40):
Well, why don't we change our philosophy.

Speaker 4 (02:42):
Down twenty seven nothing, might as well go forward on
fourth and eight, and they don't make it. So now
green Bay's got good field position at the forty eight
yard line. It's now they're now at like the thirty
two or something. It's fourth and two, four minutes to go.
Every National Football League team winning twenty seven nothing And
please don't tell me the Patriots used to do it,

(03:04):
because I looked it up when Aaron Shottz was with us.

Speaker 5 (03:07):
They didn't do it with four minutes left. They did
it early and mid fourth quarter. You hand the ball
to your full back. Maybe he gets the two yards,
you get the first down. Maybe he doesn't.

Speaker 4 (03:16):
And there's no way that the Packers are getting more
than twenty seven and a half points. Instead, they throw
a bomb to read down the sidelines, catches the ball.
Now it's first in goal with the ten. It's scumbaggery. Okay.

Speaker 5 (03:29):
Even Dan Campbell, who goes.

Speaker 4 (03:32):
Endless wings, we're gonna just keep trying to score, even
when there's six minutes left in his blowouts, he stops
the nonsense. Okay, even he stops the nonsense with four
minutes to go, This idiot at twenty seven nothing is
throwing a bomb down. It's unconfortable. It's unconsfortable. It's not
the way the natural football league works.

Speaker 1 (03:53):
So it'll just be you talking through your bet of
under twenty seven a half.

Speaker 5 (03:56):
Of course, of.

Speaker 4 (03:57):
Course it's through my bet. But I'm still telling you
that there's nobody in the NFL that throws a bomb
on fourth and two, up twenty seven to nothing with
four minutes left. They don't do it. It's a professional card.
It's kind of like the dribble out. We've all watched
the dribble out when there's twenty two seconds left, and
you're winning by eighteen, you dribble the ball up. You
stand in the corner and you dribble the ball out,

(04:19):
and you hand it to the ref. That's how it works. Okay,
this is the equivalent. There's four minutes left. Okay, maybe
with eight minutes left, seven minutes, you could tell me that,
no problem about with four okay.

Speaker 1 (04:31):
So one the basketball things interesting because when a team
does that, it's always very awkward. If the other team
left with five seconds then tries a shot or not.
I always find that amusing, where it's like, Okay, they
were nice to you, they didn't shoot. Maybe you shouldn't
shoot either.

Speaker 5 (04:45):
But they don't. But I just want to I'm talking
about it. I'm talking aboutga.

Speaker 6 (04:51):
Under points and you foul him with five seconds left
and a fifteen point not that.

Speaker 1 (04:55):
Not that you would know anything about that massive thousands
of dollars. I just want to ask if what Todd
is saying is true because when we were kids, right,
people did used to kneel on the football if they
were up forty five to nothing. It was a professional courtesy.
Is what you're saying actually true? Because I feel like
this generation they're the they're the well, if you can't

(05:17):
stop us, then you know, if you don't want us
to score, you should stop us. Generation And that's.

Speaker 4 (05:21):
The Dan Campbell throwing the ball with nine minutes left
in the fourth quarter up forty five to three. It's obnoxious.
And that's what you're referring to. I'm not referring to that.
I'm talking about with four minutes left. Even Dan Campbell
doesn't do these shenanigans.

Speaker 1 (05:37):
Well, I'm not sure you're right, is what I'm asking.

Speaker 4 (05:39):
Well, go look at the just go look at the
play by play, Daddy, you can see it.

Speaker 5 (05:43):
It's not there. I'm telling you.

Speaker 1 (05:45):
Yeah, I don't feel like doing that, to be honest
with you, but I'm just saying I just think that,
you know, like Darren Rizzy of the Saints didn't appear
all that bothered by it, not that you know, he
necessarily would have been. I think you're right. I think
it is kind of I don't know it's scumbaggery, but
it was a little untoured. I will give you that.

Speaker 4 (06:03):
It's Lane kiffenery, it's Lane Kiffin bullshit, okay, And this
is not old miss against Furman, Okay.

Speaker 3 (06:13):
Can I can I can I play devil's advocate here.

Speaker 1 (06:15):
Kil please sure, Matta, thank you.

Speaker 2 (06:19):
They did at that point have Malik Willis in the game,
and like you can make the argument that you know
you're a playoff team and if God forbid something happened
to Jordan Love, you know you at least are are getting,
you know, some meaningful reps for your backup quarterback that
would have to then play in the playoffs again playing
devil's advocate here.

Speaker 3 (06:38):
It wasn't like it was Jordan Love.

Speaker 5 (06:39):
That did this.

Speaker 2 (06:39):
It was Malik Willis that did that.

Speaker 4 (06:43):
God fuck, I don't care who it was. And it's
not meaningful reps against the New Orleans Saints at twenty seven.
In fact, the entire game wasn't meaningful reps. There were
no meaningful reps in the entire football game from eight
point fifteen when Joe Buck and Troy Aikman, So there
were no meaningful reps. But I understand what you're saying, Matt.

(07:03):
You're trying to come up with a devil's advocate and
that was a strong attempt.

Speaker 1 (07:08):
Strong attempt. He grants you the attempt. Who is the
dumbbo with just week?

Speaker 6 (07:14):
My only input would be usually when it's twenty seven
to nothing, and there's there's just more games on, So
I'm not really paying attention watching to like the mechanics
all how aggressive were they down twenty seven or ohing.
But I think Todd's point is generally correct, where hey,
fourth and two, you just kind of run it and
you throw a little check down, you don't go for
the home run ball.

Speaker 4 (07:31):
But dude, I'll show you a million games Arizona Jet
against the Jets.

Speaker 5 (07:36):
I mean a million games.

Speaker 4 (07:37):
This is not Yeah, the only thing you see nowadays
is the ridiculous Dan Campbell in the fourth quarter, early
fourth quarter, but not with four minutes Well, even Dan
Campbell brings in his backups.

Speaker 1 (07:49):
Todd, I get. I'm with you, and I'm the guy
who's like, oh, you know, I'm the one who used
to blame Belichick for setting this for a whole new
generation because he it's completely I feel like I'm a
thousand years old when I came about stuff like he
learned it from Joe Gibbs.

Speaker 4 (08:02):
Oh, even he didn't do it, Gilly, Even he didn't
do it with four minutes left, he did it with
eight minutes left, ten minutes left. We look, I went
back and looked at the play by play with Aaron.

Speaker 1 (08:12):
All right, he didn't want a particulous I mean to
spend fifteen minutes on it, all right, Dumbo of the week.
Can we give Mike Tomlin some hate here? Like enough
with the it's two weeks in a row. His team
has been down fourteen points in the fourth quarter, I
think one with like ten plus minutes left, the other

(08:32):
with eight plus minutes left Eagles, then the Ravens, and
he just punts. Stop. We gotta stop holding him in
reverence when he.

Speaker 4 (08:41):
He wanted to give his defense some meaningful reps. They
may be in the playoffs?

Speaker 1 (08:48):
Oh man, was there another candidate besides Mike Tomlin. I'm
trying to.

Speaker 6 (08:55):
Think Signetty deserves a nominate even though it's college. I
think we can break the rule and nominate him for
how gutless that was on Friday night with Indiana, after
talking all that shit about all we smoke these top
twenty five teams, and with his chest out and then
to coach, like, let's just face it, he coach like
a little bitch Friday night.

Speaker 1 (09:16):
A little bitch.

Speaker 3 (09:17):
I think I think that's fair. I mean, I think
that's fair.

Speaker 2 (09:20):
It's I always just find it funny, and especially a
guy in his position where there's zero chance of him
getting fired.

Speaker 3 (09:26):
Like your season's over. If you lose, your going home.

Speaker 2 (09:30):
It's not like you lose and you get to like
play a consolation bowl or something. So it's like, who
cares if you lose seventy nine, It doesn't matter, Like
you just go for it.

Speaker 3 (09:37):
If the hunt zero point zero percent.

Speaker 2 (09:40):
Chance of winning, if you continue to punt the ball
away and at least have zero point one percent chance
of winning, if you try to actually convert these fourth downs,
you know, I mean, it's just who cares at that point?

Speaker 6 (09:49):
And if they lose nothing, they had a great year,
it does it wouldn't matter, like, hey, nobody would say anything.
Hey you were Indiana, you made the playoffs. You know what,
You hold your head high. The only way you come
out there looking bad is what he did, where you
just you talk all of that ship and then you know,
punting from the plus thirty eight third and ten run,
then then he was gonna go for it on fourth down.
He kicks a field goal punt down seventeen in the

(10:10):
fourth courtment. He coached so scared it was unbelievable. Then
his team makes a late rally where you know, touchdown
two point another on side another touchdown. Was like, man,
maybe if we went for some of these, we would
have made this interesting.

Speaker 1 (10:22):
All right? I got a couple more in the Pros
won New England. Also when they were down ten tow
it to a buffalo in the fourth quarter with ten
to excuse me, that was with eight third was still
a game, all right, Yeah, just let me get it
out with eight thirty three left, he punts it, you know,

(10:42):
and it was still a winnable game, like you said.
And then uh oh, Thomas Brown, the interim coach with
the Bears, they're down what was it? They were down?
They into a three score game. Yeah, they were down
thirty four to four team and they kick a thirty
yard field goal with six ozh three left in the

(11:03):
third to make it a seventeen point. That's pretty bad.
That's pretty bad. But you know who the Dumbo of
the week is. Forget all that, Antonio appears for winning
a game for the Braiders. That's the Dumbo of the week.
You are now in the clock, New York. It's here
to win football game.

Speaker 5 (11:24):
I don't I don't have much problem with that, because
I don't. I don't like that. Hole. Oh, we have
to do our draft and everything.

Speaker 4 (11:30):
You know, people paid a lot of money for the
tickets to go to the games, and who can't I
love this. Well, the game doesn't mean anything. By the way,
all the games don't mean anything. Okay, all the games
don't mean anything. Did you win the championship? Why we
won the championship twenty years rather, you still have to
look at Google to find out who won the goddamn championship.

Speaker 7 (11:49):
None of the games mean anything. That's why we gamble
on the games. Okay, we'll stop with the Oh, the
game doesn't mean anything. They're professional athletes. Give them a
chance to win a goddamn game. I don't want to
hear about this for the future. Oh, so we can
get a better draft pick, so we can pick the
wrong guy. So we picked Caleb Williams instead of Jaydeon Daniels.
That's why we have to get a better It's insane

(12:09):
if you're gonna charge one hundred billion dollars for a
ticket you try to win a game.

Speaker 1 (12:14):
Sorry, you are very angry today.

Speaker 2 (12:18):
Good Green Bay particular, though, again to play Devil's advocate
that game in particular, Actually they did a double bad
because it was all Jacksonville fan Like everybody from Jacksonville
was in town.

Speaker 3 (12:30):
It wasn't even Raiders fans in there.

Speaker 2 (12:31):
So it's like they actually stole the happiness away from
Jacksonville fans.

Speaker 3 (12:36):
And in the middle of all of this.

Speaker 2 (12:38):
Because it was put on their calendar way long time ago.
Hey we're going to Vegas isn't mean great, you know,
So it was all these Jacksonville fans in town. Half
the stadium was Jacksonville Jags fans, and instead they just
stole all of their their love for them and they
lost a number one overall.

Speaker 3 (12:52):
Pick fell all the way to sixth, which is even funnier.

Speaker 1 (12:55):
And all this you you like betting the draft early matter?
You are you thinking that cam is going to be
the Giants pick?

Speaker 3 (13:02):
I do not.

Speaker 2 (13:02):
I think it's shador If they laid, I would lay
up to four dollars for shoot.

Speaker 1 (13:09):
Or I mean number one overall right now, probably even
though it feels like he doesn't want to play there,
even though they's even though they're saying he does.

Speaker 2 (13:17):
Yeh, I mean, it's I understand Dion have said things
in the past and all that, But I mean, at
the end of the day too, you have to look
at this and it's it's like, I mean, it's the
biggest it's still.

Speaker 3 (13:26):
The biggest market in the country.

Speaker 2 (13:27):
Like you're gonna get you're gonna make You're gonna make
so much money by playing out of there. And I mean,
I would think it'd be pretty attractive playing the league neighbors.
I mean, I don't know exactly what he's trying to
accomplish or whatever, but I mean, I think it would
be pretty attractive to have that guy in a rookie
contract for the next couple of years.

Speaker 3 (13:44):
But you know, I don't I.

Speaker 2 (13:45):
Don't think that cam Ward eclipses Shodoor in all of
this with whoever ends up first overall with the pick.

Speaker 4 (13:52):
I agree with you, Matt. I agree with you. I
don't think cam Ward's that great either. I think he
reminds me a lot of Caleb Williams. He runs around
und a lot.

Speaker 1 (14:03):
Todd has the best scouting report of Kayla Williams of anybody.
What is it again, Todd, There's.

Speaker 4 (14:08):
A lot of that too. I hate to break it
to you, cam Ward is not and the Miami. First
of all, he's been infected by that horrible crystal ball. Okay,
once you've been around that crystal ball, nothing good can
come of you.

Speaker 8 (14:20):
Herbert overcame it, though.

Speaker 5 (14:23):
Yeah, that is kind of well, has he really with
all that talent?

Speaker 1 (14:26):
You know?

Speaker 5 (14:27):
Maybe that's what's holding him back.

Speaker 1 (14:32):
Oh, I got at the end all right. Todd went
to three, which left the door open for me and
Willy to to just run through it and win this
thing we didn't.

Speaker 5 (14:43):
Try to do.

Speaker 4 (14:45):
I pulled the Jonathan Taylor dropping the ball at the
one yard line last week by giving you guys, And
I knew as I was making all these unders, I
was thinking, this is these are two conventional wisdomy. I
knew I was in trouble last week. I give you
guys the O and three. You did not run through it.
You both went one and two. So Gilly is now
at twenty four to twenty three.

Speaker 1 (15:06):
Eight and one. Wait, I didn't get one. One will
went one way? One?

Speaker 5 (15:11):
Wait?

Speaker 4 (15:12):
Hang on, hang on, Seattle plus three? What did they
lose by three? I think they lost by three and
a half. Check the score.

Speaker 8 (15:22):
They We do this every week every time. I'm not
paying fult we were't paying attention. This is why record
is what it is.

Speaker 6 (15:28):
Every week we just shave off a little week and
half year one. I'm probably in first place at this point.

Speaker 1 (15:33):
These records twenty one pat bullshit.

Speaker 4 (15:36):
Twenty one, twenty five and two. You have a freaking
text with the picture of every single week, So you
can go back and shut your masks. YenS can shut
both your maths. Just go back and look it up. Okay,
twenty one, twenty five and two. For Willie, you get
the second tie.

Speaker 5 (15:53):
Mazle tough.

Speaker 4 (15:54):
I am twenty six and twenty two, so I am
still ahead of Gilly by one and a half games,
and the guest is at twenty five Wait to beat
You twenty five, twenty two and one. The guest is
actually only half a game back to me, so it's
going to be tight down the stretch. Here In the
teaser category, we've made a little bit of a resurgence.
Gilly even won a teaser. He goes to five ten

(16:16):
and one. Willy at seven seven and two leads the teasers.
Me and the guests are seven and nine. So that's
where we are on the records. It could be a
tight last two weeks.

Speaker 1 (16:28):
We are so middling this year, like our records are
so mediocre this year. What I want to get so
we do the in game stuff before we get to
the best bets. I want to get Willy a shout.
I gave Will a shout on the on the radio
side this morning. I want to do it here on
the podcast. Which is that college football bowl game we
played yesterday? These late money line prices that are available

(16:49):
in some spots. Fresno is it was the uh where
was it yesterday?

Speaker 5 (16:54):
Oh?

Speaker 1 (16:55):
And Boise Fresno in Northern Illinois. Fresno was coming down
the field to a chip shot field goal to win it.
There was a tie game, but the Fresno State kicker
had missed two kicks already in that direction. Uh, And
so Willy Willy was like six to one for Northern
Illinois to win this on the money line. I didn't
get six to one. I got plus three fifty. But

(17:15):
still and sure enough, dude missed a third field goal
attempt and Northern Illinois somehow miraculously wins it in overtime
twenty eight to twenty, which was fun for all of
us who had a bunch of Northern Illinois bets. But not,
you know, more luck than anything. But the point being
that Will identified what was a you know, a bet

(17:37):
that needed to be made to some degree, a little sprinkle,
and he had a six to one. So shout out
to the Great Will Hill on that one.

Speaker 4 (17:43):
Those one didn't he hit another one that was even
a juicy one. Also, like a week or two ago,
like plus five hundred or something on.

Speaker 8 (17:52):
Something this money line against the Panthers.

Speaker 6 (17:53):
It was the same sort of scenario where I just
kind of assumed that Panthers were going to win, and
I think it was Tampa down three with thirty seconds
dollar time out, but you're leaving out to keep part
of this northern Northern Illinois bat Stevie luckbox fezik hat
gave out Northern Annoy minus the three. So he clears
that easily and he uh.

Speaker 5 (18:11):
Comes out the other side the luckiest guy of all time.

Speaker 1 (18:14):
I just want to say, as smart as that guy is,
and he is, he's an actual He is the luckiest
better I have ever met in my life.

Speaker 8 (18:25):
Market movie, nobody went for two.

Speaker 6 (18:28):
You they always go for two in that spot, and
overtime somebody scores a touchdown, somebody else, you know, scores
a touchdown, the go for it and land on one,
of course, not.

Speaker 8 (18:35):
For Fezi, and then he wins by eight.

Speaker 4 (18:37):
And then the game before that, the bowl game before that,
he goes under in the third quarter.

Speaker 5 (18:42):
I said, don't do it. That Utsa is going up
and down the field easily. Don't do that third quarter
and you're now around the math. You know the math
math math math math math math math math math. So
he's got to do the under. So he goes ahead
and does the other.

Speaker 4 (18:56):
Meanwhile, you esay is inside the ten twice in the
first first five minutes of the third quarter. Somehow this
one point six billion points in the second half.

Speaker 5 (19:07):
But he wins an under third quarter. I don't know
how he does it smoking mirror.

Speaker 1 (19:11):
It's incredible. By the way I call him on this right,
I'll say to you are the lucky You are smart,
but you are the luckiest sports better I've ever met
in my life. And he answers it very honestly. He says, oh, yeah,
I'm in a period of like six years where I'm
running good. Before that, I was in a period of
like six years where I couldn't win anything. And then
like seven years before that, he was running good. Again,

(19:33):
so like he has apparently, according to him, these large
periods of time where things either go his way or don't.
So we just happen to be in a in the
Steve Fezik luckbox era, I'm running fifty.

Speaker 5 (19:44):
Four years of going bad in life.

Speaker 1 (19:48):
Well, Hachem hates you, Jad, so that's the reason.

Speaker 5 (19:50):
There you go.

Speaker 6 (19:51):
You know, especially at Saint's games where you have live
overs in you're tied with two seconds left and you
get a miss and then push back, put back.

Speaker 4 (20:00):
Yeah, we had the over to the same game. They
somehow tie the game at the end there's twelve seconds left.
I'm like, okay, last shot. Of course you're gonna get
a horrible shot, which we did. We got the horrible shot,
but somehow the big turd on Saint John's grabs the
ball on the offensive rebound and just flips it.

Speaker 5 (20:18):
Up and somehow makes it. You just you can't make
it up.

Speaker 1 (20:20):
It's incredible, the big turd on Saint John. All Right,
we don't have a Thursday at football games since we're
doing this on Tuesday, so we don't have to do
a special Christmas or day after Christmas dispensation. But God
help the forty four remaining people and Survivor that are
responsible for the last forty five entries, each of which
is worth over three hundred thousand dollars right now because

(20:42):
they have to pick one of those six teams. Man,
oh man, oh man, is this going to be this?
It's moving day at the Masters these next two days
and Survivor, So it's going to be interesting. And I.

Speaker 2 (20:55):
No matter how do you think, Yeah, no matter how
you plan for it, Gil Like it's like everybody you
know always starts with a plan or something like, it
didn't end up how you thought it was going to be. Yeah,
it did not end up how you thought. And so
you're everybody's in a bad spot here. I mean, there's
no one's in a good spot.

Speaker 1 (21:12):
Isn't the optimal play going to be the Bears? Like
if you really want to put yourself on an island
and have the most plus ev if you win, that's
the play I think. I mean, you know, God help you,
but I think that's the play.

Speaker 3 (21:31):
I wouldn't click it, I'll put it that way.

Speaker 1 (21:34):
But well, yeah, based on obviously what you have available, right,
because I think there's only like four people that have
the chiefs. None of these so.

Speaker 2 (21:40):
There's seven seven with the Chiefs, twelve with the Ravens,
so you have to assume nineteen, right there are taken
care of.

Speaker 3 (21:50):
Twenty two have Seattle.

Speaker 2 (21:51):
Yeah, so twenty two have Seattle. And then there is
one entry that only has the Bear, so there will
be someone on the Bears. So there there's one entry
that only has the Bears, so there will at least
be one entry on the Bears, which means.

Speaker 1 (22:06):
We could have a mess on Yeah, there's a mess
on Pittsburgh too, right, they have a bunch of yeah available.

Speaker 2 (22:13):
Yeah, so it's you have to assume all you know,
all nineteen that have either the Ravens or the Chiefs
will probably play them, and then it's up in the
air from there.

Speaker 1 (22:24):
All right, Matt, best bets. We start with one from you.

Speaker 3 (22:30):
I'm going to play Seattle in the first half. Do
you all allow the first half?

Speaker 5 (22:34):
Bets?

Speaker 1 (22:35):
No, Todd Mega Constitution according to the rules.

Speaker 5 (22:39):
I didn't write the rules. I'm just telling you we
didn't do that.

Speaker 2 (22:41):
It's not in That's fine, Okay, they will just punt
that and I'll just I'll just play Baltimore then at
five and a half instead. Uh, this is in my
opinion A really good, a really really good situation for Baltimore.

Speaker 3 (22:54):
They're a run funnel.

Speaker 2 (22:55):
I mean, they're a pass funnel defense as it is anyway,
you can't run against them. Houston doesn't run the ball
efficiently as it is anyway, So now you're going to
force them into passing. You already lost Stefan Diggs, Now
you lose Tank Dell. Nico Collins I don't think can
get it done on his own, but probably try to
Pepper Dalton Schultz a ton.

Speaker 3 (23:14):
I can't imagine that Deontay Johnson.

Speaker 2 (23:16):
Is going to get any sort of significant run being
there for like forty eight hours.

Speaker 3 (23:20):
So I think Baltimore has a really good.

Speaker 2 (23:24):
Shot here against a team that in any other circumstance
I would probably say.

Speaker 3 (23:28):
Maybe you could even upset them in this situation.

Speaker 2 (23:31):
But given what they're going to take this field with,
I think Baltimore comes out and really puts a stamp
on this thing. And with a ton to play for, right,
I mean, Houston, I guess in their dream world could
move up a slot, you know, in all this seating
and stuff, but not really, And so I think this
is a much more important game for Baltimore. As well,
and plays kind of right into right into their hands here,

(23:52):
which is you're going to know CJ. Stroud has to pass.
You're basically going to know who's thrown it to. And
with that, I think Baltimore can cover this big momber.

Speaker 1 (24:01):
Baltimore minus five. That's the big mover on Christmas Day.
A lot of money on ball five and a half
is what it is. Yeah, you take.

Speaker 3 (24:13):
South point number.

Speaker 5 (24:15):
First of all, he said, first.

Speaker 4 (24:18):
The consensus. I didn't make these rules. Man, don't get
angry at me. I'm just telling it's five and a half.
As we go with the consensus.

Speaker 1 (24:27):
I just love I love Todd's face when someone tries
to bet something that is not allowed in the megapod constitution,
How oh annoyed you get with it?

Speaker 4 (24:36):
Like, I mean, we didn't allow Brent Wesberger to do
first touchdown in the third quarter bets.

Speaker 5 (24:41):
I mean, come on, that.

Speaker 6 (24:44):
Was a four leg touchdowns anytime touchdown score of parlay.

Speaker 1 (24:48):
Read for yea fourteen parlay. I was like, you can't
do that, Bred, I took that bullet for you, all right.
I mean, Toddy is your number one.

Speaker 4 (24:56):
We should change Maybe we should change the bylaws because
everyone doing props nowadays, but maybe next week, next year
we should add, you know, two good props or something.
You know, I'm not saying, but until the laws are changed,
we're a civilized country here.

Speaker 1 (25:10):
Thank you, Thank you very much. I appreciate how much
you are about it.

Speaker 5 (25:15):
Yeah, look, the rules are the rules.

Speaker 4 (25:17):
First of all, I didn't talk about the end game
real quick on the end game. There were two quick
things that I want to talk about in game Number one,
very simple, very no no.

Speaker 5 (25:28):
A matter of the floor. The over.

Speaker 4 (25:31):
In the Cardinals Cardinals Panthers game this past week, Cardinals
got down big. You know they're going to score. It
was like an obvious over bet. You absolutely had to
make the bet over. I think I took over fifty
two and a half. But the Cardinals were down big.
There's no reason why they're not going to be able
to move the ball. So that's the kind of bet. Look,

(25:52):
if Carolina is moving the ball, you know this game
is going over because they're going to get theirs.

Speaker 5 (25:56):
And you know Arizona sooner or later is going to
get there. So that was kind of easy.

Speaker 4 (25:59):
When you get those big favorites down big, very often,
the over is the way to go. I want to
talk about one other bet that it was a loser.
The Me and Willy have had bad luck on these
third quarter nfls lately, but I took under seven and
a half third quarter in the Giants Atlanta game. The
reason being you could tell the Giants weren't going to
do anything. They were getting the ball first, so they

(26:19):
were probably gonna knock off two minutes of clock. Then
Atlanta gets the ball, let's say thirteen minutes to go,
they go on one of those typical six to seven
minute drives. By the time, even if they get the touchdown,
by the time you turn around, there's only gonna be
six seven minutes left. Again, the Giants aren't going to
do anything, so now there's only five minutes by the
time anybody can score. Again, there's no way they're going

(26:40):
over seven and a half in the third quarter. Well,
of course, our friend Drew Locke throws a quick pick
six to start the third quarter, so all those plans
go in the garbage. But I still think it was
a great bet because if you look out it played out,
it played out exactly that way. Atlanta went on a
long touchdown drive after stopping the Giants after the interception touchdown,
and then by the time I'm Atlanta got the ball

(27:00):
back again, they went on another long drive and finally
got a field goal in the fourth quarter. So you know,
you can make good bets and get screwed, obviously by
ridiculous you know, Drew Lock picked sixes. But you know
you have to look for those third quarter unders when
the bad team is getting the ball first. Sometimes that's
just a great bet to make. And I still think
that's a good bet even though we lost.

Speaker 1 (27:20):
It was what was the boat you made that? Immediately
something bad happened and Willy Willi you texted, you go,
I disagree.

Speaker 5 (27:28):
I disagree with that.

Speaker 8 (27:29):
Ravens in total d twenty second and a half.

Speaker 5 (27:35):
Yeah, that was another.

Speaker 8 (27:37):
Good one being delivered. It was a pick six, I go,
I don't like it.

Speaker 4 (27:40):
By the way, if you look at if you look
at that one, it worked exactly how I thought that
one's going to work out. It was twenty four to
seventeen Ravens Steelers ball thirteen minutes left on their own
side of the field. You got to figure, okay, Steelers
move it a little bit, they punt the ball. By
the time they punt the ball, The Ravens are going
to get the ball, with what like ten nine, ten
minutes left, they come up, they kick a field goal

(28:01):
and by the way, all this is exactly what happened,
but it happened after Russell Wilson throw an interception for
a touchdown.

Speaker 5 (28:07):
So that ended up being.

Speaker 4 (28:08):
You know, if you're getting three and a half points
with those teams leading often it can be good.

Speaker 5 (28:12):
But you know whatever, if you don't get the breaks,
you don't get the brakes. You know, all right, what
you play?

Speaker 4 (28:18):
My play, My first play is going to be. You know,
I just hate this card. It's just garbage. I'm gonna
take the Lions minus four if for no other reason
than I hate the San Francisco forty nine ers too,
with a passion. I took them in game this past week.
And that damn kicker he loves to screw me, that Moody.

(28:39):
He remember he missed two field goals against Cleveland last
year in the rain that cost me back. That guy
just loves to miss field goals. He's in Miami. It's
a it's a gorgeous stadium. There's no weather, it's a
thirty seven yard he misses the field goal the Niners
cannot move the ball in the red zone. Also, that's
another thing, is they just cannot get the ball in

(28:59):
the end zone. And maybe it's because there's all there's
left is kittle and you know, there's just not enough
people to throw the ball to or whatever. I just
I'm tired of this Niner team. And I believe mister
Dan Campbell. He look, we had a lot of adversity
and it's exactly what we need. We needed some adversity,
and we lost that game with some adversity.

Speaker 5 (29:19):
And now we're back to endless wings.

Speaker 4 (29:21):
We're gonna start kicking people's asses and we're not gonna stop,
just like the endless wings at Applebee's. And that's what
we're gonna do this week. We're gonna kick some Niner ass.
And there's Levi Stadium or whatever the hell that thing
is called. We're gonna call it apple Bee's Stadium. Endless
touchdowns for the Lions this week. Lions minus four. They're
just a better team than this Niner rag tag squad

(29:44):
that's left. And you know what, enough with the Brock Party,
you know he's better than we all thought.

Speaker 6 (29:49):
He was.

Speaker 4 (29:50):
No problem with that, He's not God, Okay, enough with him.
I'm tired of this whole and that's Shanahan. I hate
that Shanah. I can't stand him. He's just so bad
it makes me want to kill somebody.

Speaker 5 (30:04):
That Shanahan.

Speaker 4 (30:05):
I'm sorry. Lions minus four.

Speaker 1 (30:10):
That's part of your Randy gap. I already have that
bet in. I have lines minus three and a half
in my account already. I'm with you on that, Todd,
that that's actually my number three. And I know I'm
one and a half games behind Todd with six left,
but I'm gonna I'm gonna give him one game where
it's not gonna matter. I'm on the Lions. Is it four? Now?
Is that what the number is?

Speaker 5 (30:29):
I mean, I was trying to take the fair number
it is if.

Speaker 3 (30:33):
We're going consensus, yes, yes, yeah, ok. There are two
three and a half's out there.

Speaker 4 (30:38):
But the most Matt, we're not screwing you, We're doing
the same thing for us.

Speaker 3 (30:45):
I'm good.

Speaker 1 (30:46):
The most amazing Niner stat of the year will will you?
Sent this text some days ago. Last year, Christian McCaffrey, Deebo, Samuel,
and Brandon Ayuk score forty touchdowns, forty rushing and receiving
this year. Ristian McCaffrey, Brandon Ayuk obviously injuries, and Deebo

(31:08):
Samuel have combined for after a year where they combined
for forty three touchdown and the third was this past
weekend when Deebo scored against Miami. Just think about that
drop off that's just from one year to the next.
You cannot overcome that.

Speaker 6 (31:28):
How about the stat I think I sent you guys
last night. Twenty three straight years the forty nine ers
have either made the NFC title game or missed the
playoffs altogether.

Speaker 1 (31:36):
That's incredible. Like, that's so incredible. I have to look
it up because I don't believe it.

Speaker 6 (31:40):
Yeah, you know, I was trying to just do it
back in my head and like, hey, what was a
year where they made the playoffs they either lost in
the first or second round and I wasn't thinking of it.

Speaker 8 (31:49):
I couldn't think of anything.

Speaker 2 (31:51):
So I'm I'm rooting for you all to win next.
I have heaps on the Lions and all the Lions
futures and everything in the world. I think the only
thing that scares me about that game is Shanahan basically
just went into like Yolo mode in that one. I mean,
they ran the ball eight times with a running back
and they let Party throw it forty times against the Dolphins,
And it's like, do they just go, Okay, we don't

(32:12):
have a running back that can run the ball, Party's
going to throw it fifty times? At what point is
this lion's secondary in this defense that has literally, you know,
seventy five different guys on ir at this point, Like,
is there a breaking point somewhere down the line, if
you know, if something, you still have Kittle and Jennings
and Devo, Like, it's not like they have nobody right

(32:33):
on that side. So that's the only thing that scares
me a little bit about about that one.

Speaker 6 (32:39):
I was surprised that was such a cool trick play
with the fake fumble and what was it?

Speaker 8 (32:43):
Gibbs falls like it is a fumble and Golf pretends
the trip. But why waste that?

Speaker 6 (32:47):
You're up fourteen against the ill Why waste that?

Speaker 4 (32:51):
I disagree with both of you. You know why I
disagree with both of you. In the moment when that's happening,
you think the next team they do it to is
going to remember in the moment, he looks like he
fell down.

Speaker 5 (33:02):
Oh wait, that's the trick play. They're not gonna remember.

Speaker 1 (33:05):
Maybe, No, it's not about remembering. It's not about remembering.
To me, it's the fact that you you won't ever
catch Oh you're you're saying you won't catch him by
surprise that.

Speaker 6 (33:14):
Theyil they can run it again. To run that again
in two weeks, I don't know.

Speaker 4 (33:19):
You could run it again. Nobody's gonna remember. These guys
are steroids about that eight hundred miles an hour.

Speaker 5 (33:26):
Oh my god, the guy fell down. Let's run.

Speaker 1 (33:30):
Okay, Well, what do you at?

Speaker 8 (33:33):
What do we offer for consensus?

Speaker 5 (33:35):
Here?

Speaker 8 (33:35):
Rams and Cardinals? Six or six and a half?

Speaker 5 (33:40):
Rams and the car? What do you?

Speaker 4 (33:42):
Matt has six and a half and I can't find
the game. Where the hell the damn get six and
a half everywhere?

Speaker 1 (33:49):
Six and a half everywhere?

Speaker 5 (33:51):
Okay, there I will take.

Speaker 8 (33:52):
I will take Arizona. I just I can't get to
this number.

Speaker 6 (33:55):
I do the same exercise Gill does, where you kind
of guess the lines in your head, and okay, Rams
are a little bit better than Arizona, and you give
the Rams a little something for home field, not much
in that building. But what there are a couple points
better than you give another point in half for home
field and gets like three and a half or four.
I just I think you're paying a huge tax here,
and this is the time of year where you do it.
You pay a huge tax for motivation. The Rams trying

(34:17):
to win the division. Cardinals have been eliminated. Okay, that's
where something. But we've seen these teams that have nothing
to play for the Lions a couple of years agoing
on that Sunday night against Green Bay. We've seen teams
play spoiler before, where sometimes it helps you when you
have nothing to play for, you just come in fast
and loose and you could fake upon be aggressive.

Speaker 8 (34:33):
I just think this is uh.

Speaker 6 (34:34):
You're paying a tax on the motivation angle here for
the Rams. So I think the six and a half
is inflated. I will take the Cardinals plus the points.

Speaker 1 (34:42):
Cardinals like that eliminated Rams currently top of the NFC West.

Speaker 5 (34:49):
Do I do?

Speaker 1 (34:49):
I would have done a snake here, so do I do?
Number two?

Speaker 5 (34:51):
Here? Good too?

Speaker 1 (34:54):
Number two? I am taking the Washington Commodes. My is
it for? I'll tell you why. Because it's a disrespectful line,
just like last week's was disrespectful. Fuck all of you.

Speaker 4 (35:09):
They couldn't stop Spencer Rattler and the refs from getting
the teaser blown up. So you know what, here's an idea, Spencer.

Speaker 1 (35:20):
Washington disrespectful line. It is a Sunday night at Northwest
Stadium where Washington could could clinch a playoff. Berth. I
guess there's a scenario where they could clinch it before that. No,
probably not. They will. They will clinch a playoff Berth.
This has This has the same whiff as RG three

(35:41):
in the year twenty twelve, clinching the NFC West on
a Sunday night in DC against the Dallas Cowboys and
Tony Romo. This will be a playoff coronation, if you will,
for Washington, a moribund franchise who now has their savior.
Michael Pennix is still starting for the Atlanta Falcons. I
don't know that we learned any thing about him this
past week. Maybe he's good, maybe he's not. Four seems

(36:05):
way low to me in what is going to be
a frenzied atmosphere in ral John in Largo, Maryland, Landover, Maryland.
Give me the skins minus the four. This should not.
Before I thought this would be sick come on, disrespect.

Speaker 2 (36:21):
Actually, Gil, I think if the Sea Chickens lose, then
the Commanders are in no matter what.

Speaker 1 (36:29):
So I, well, I think you're right, yeah, because the
wins right, ay.

Speaker 2 (36:35):
Yeah, they have ten wins, right yeah, Seattle's only got.

Speaker 1 (36:40):
Yeah yeah, so if Seattle loses early, that's right, then
Washington is in no matter what.

Speaker 3 (36:47):
Yeah.

Speaker 1 (36:48):
I think, uh, okay, But well again I don't know
if no, I don't know if that's true though, because
Tampa Bay in Atlanta could still get to ten and five, right.

Speaker 5 (37:02):
So.

Speaker 3 (37:04):
Ten and seven?

Speaker 1 (37:05):
Yes, yes, yes, yes, yes, yeah, and the best they.

Speaker 2 (37:08):
Could yeah, so the best they could do would be
tie and they'd go to some sort of tie breaker
or something like that.

Speaker 1 (37:13):
Yeah, I don't think they I don't think they could
clinch by maybe wrong, Yeah, Willie, what is your number two?

Speaker 8 (37:22):
I'm gonna go opposite. I'm gonna take the Falcons.

Speaker 6 (37:24):
I'm surprised this is higher than a field goal.

Speaker 8 (37:26):
I thought Pennix was pretty good last week. These teams
seem to get a bump when they move on.

Speaker 6 (37:30):
From cousins, whether it's the Vikings or Penix last week,
and I just see this Atlanta offense with Pennis exploding
all over Washington's Washington's defense. You've got it to do it.
It's got to be a thing now, it's got to
be a bit. I just I don't get chilled for here.
I think I think Washington is again similar to the

(37:52):
Arizona Rams handicap. I think Washington is slightly better than
in Atlanta, and you give them something for home field,
but I don't know, four seems like a lot. I
think this is a field goal game. I'll take the points,
plus the fact that only a couple of weeks left,
and I want to catch you guys, so a little
game theory here. I'll take the points with that light.

Speaker 1 (38:10):
Dot.

Speaker 6 (38:11):
I've heard that get hurt last week. I mean that
game is I mean that was twenty one seconds, turn
the ball over.

Speaker 1 (38:16):
Five times and they still won. I don't care if
it was you playing quarterback. Come on, how.

Speaker 4 (38:20):
About Spencer Rattler, who was the last time we watched
him play, he looked about as good as uh, you know,
Will Hill playing quarterback. It was unbelievable how bad he was.
But meanwhile, he can just march down on the Redskins
at the end of the game, like, come.

Speaker 1 (38:35):
On, I'm looking I'm looking at my power rankings and
Washington is a solid eighth. So I don't know what
you're talking about.

Speaker 5 (38:42):
You think that the Washington's the eighth best defense? Is
that what you're saying?

Speaker 1 (38:46):
Eighth best team?

Speaker 5 (38:48):
Oh, maybe eighth best team, but not eighth best defense. Okay,
So in my turn.

Speaker 4 (38:54):
Yes, sir, I'm gonna get down to a place where
we call Christmas Time and Acressure. Christmas Time and Acressure
is one place where EANs can look up the park
in numbers. You're not even gonna believe they can't even
fit the parking costs right on the sign.

Speaker 5 (39:12):
It's Christmas Day and they won't even give you a break.

Speaker 4 (39:15):
It's gonna be one hundred dollars the park on acress
and Christmas Day?

Speaker 5 (39:20):
Now, is that a goodwill toward men?

Speaker 4 (39:22):
I say not anyways, I like that under in the
Pittsburgh Stillers and the Chiefs game, what Ian's got forty four?
They're not getting the forty four. It's gonna be a
little chilly here in Pittsburgh. Under forty four in casey
Pittsburgh ca C Pittsburgh is a classic under We've got

(39:43):
the good Kansas City defense they're not gonna let Russell
Wilson and no receivers do anything. You saw our Our
offense has been defenestrated. We can't do nothing on offense
no more. We can't move the ball. We got nobody
to throw. And look what happ up in the last
two weeks. We played good defenses. We couldn't do nothing. Yeah,
I mean, the Ravens aren't even a good defense. We

(40:04):
couldn't do nothing. We're not gonna do anything against Kansas City.

Speaker 7 (40:07):
We're gonna have to win this game nineteen seventeen if
we win it at all, and then it's your boy,
Mahomes and all the guys.

Speaker 5 (40:13):
The stores will be going crazy. They'll be playing renegade
between the third and fourth quarter. It'll be twenty seventeen
at most.

Speaker 4 (40:21):
We're talking about old school Pittsburgh football.

Speaker 5 (40:24):
Run the football. Let's punt.

Speaker 4 (40:26):
By the way, if the Steelers are down seven or
ten points in it and they're on the plus forty
three and it's fourth and five, our guys gonna punt
the ball. That's great for the under two. So give
me the under in what looks like a classic under.
And now we've got the fact that all those Pittsburgh
went over last week, Kansas City went over last week.
They're trying to trick the whole thing up. Give me

(40:48):
under forty four. It's just too much in a Kansas
City Pittsburgh game, which are both defensive football teams under.

Speaker 9 (40:54):
Forty four, not to mention a parkin gil just so
that we don't confuse people just want to just because
they Pickens is gonna play, just so everyone know, everyone
knows he's full practice or whatever and all stuff like that.

Speaker 2 (41:05):
Just just so because I don't want people walking out
of here and thinking like, oh my god, there's no
one to throw to, like Pickings. Pickens is gonna play
for Pitts.

Speaker 5 (41:17):
It's for your forty four.

Speaker 8 (41:19):
Yeah, okay, I.

Speaker 4 (41:20):
Swum down at the UPM Health Center, a practice facility yesterday.

Speaker 5 (41:24):
Did not look good at all. Did not look good.
He may be playing Matt he didn't look good.

Speaker 1 (41:30):
Chris Jones and Juwan Taylor questionable for Kansas City. Joey
Maddie who got out for them.

Speaker 3 (41:36):
So, I don't know, that's a that's a scary. That's
a scary. Under Todd, I'm gon sweat that one with you, man.
That's a that's a scary.

Speaker 2 (41:40):
That's a scary under Uh, I am gonna play the
Raiders as favorites on the road at New Orleans. Uh,
they just got basically gotta win. It's one one and
a half. This New Orleans team is absolute dust. There's
nothing left. They have nothing to play for. It doesn't
matter if they start Rattler or Hain or whoever in
the hell it's going to be when you have no
when you have I mean, there's literally no receivers left

(42:02):
on that team whatsoever. There's nothing going on as far
as any spunk on the defensive side. We saw this,
We saw this against the Packers. They just have no juice.
There's no players, there's nothing left. And the Raiders, for
whatever reason, are like actually playing pretty tough. I mean,
they don't have any talent either, but they're actually playing hard.
And I think Aiden O'Connell is if you're if you're

(42:24):
telling me you have to start aid And O'Connell or
Spencer Rattler or Jake Hayner, you're taking Aid and O'Connell
ten times out of ten, like every single time. And
at least there's a little bit of talent there. For
Las Vegas, they're heading in a dome, no weather concerns,
know anything like that against the dead New Orleans team,
and all you got to do is win, give me
the give me the Raiders against the Saints.

Speaker 1 (42:45):
You got them. They're all you like.

Speaker 4 (42:48):
Aid and O'Connell is an upgrade from Ridder. It is
a gigantic upgrade. Even though Aiden O'Connell is not even good.
Ritter is horrendous. And I agree with you on the
New Orleans quarterbacks. The only time good is when they're
driving down to kill the teaser against Washington. That's the
only time.

Speaker 1 (43:06):
We guess you had the teaser that day. Maddie, you're third.

Speaker 3 (43:11):
Yeah, I'm gonna take the under.

Speaker 2 (43:12):
I'm going to take the over In the Chargers and
Patriots that's sitting at forty two. I have played the
Patriots over for five straight weeks. The games have gone
over five straight weeks. This is there. It is an
over team. Until otherwise noted for this. New England in
their defense is terrible, specifically, their past defense is terrible,
and these teams can score on them and they're actually

(43:35):
feisty enough on the offensive side. Drake may is a
really good chase quarterback. He's pretty athletic. The dude is
like when teams are playing soft and he's got eight yards,
he'll go run the eight yards, extend these drives, go
put some points on the board. We're not asking for
very much in this one as far as scoring goes,
And this is the class. This is like one of

(43:55):
the better over teams there is kind of going right now.
They're just so their their defense gives it up and
then they just have enough on the offensive side to
get there in the garbage time.

Speaker 3 (44:05):
Give me the over forty two Chargers Patriots.

Speaker 5 (44:09):
Guys, what's the number in that?

Speaker 1 (44:15):
He's like forty two? I sho and a half?

Speaker 8 (44:21):
Yeah, two and a half?

Speaker 4 (44:27):
WI over forty two and a half is our final score? Okay,
I actually like his pick. I like both of his picks.
I like that over forty two.

Speaker 8 (44:37):
A kiss his asstar.

Speaker 1 (44:38):
It's fine.

Speaker 5 (44:40):
I like.

Speaker 4 (44:41):
I don't like his Hey, I don't like his Baltimore pick, Will,
and you know who else I don't like Will. I
don't like anybody from Iowa who plays basketball. And you
know who I do like.

Speaker 5 (44:50):
I like girls from Connecticut with long fingernails.

Speaker 4 (44:52):
So go to hell. Now I'm going to take my
third pick is going to be. Okay, I'm gonna just
do it. I don't care.

Speaker 5 (45:04):
What do you guys have for the total in the
Giants game?

Speaker 3 (45:11):
Giants forty and a half. Forty and a half is
the prevailing.

Speaker 4 (45:17):
Okay, give me over forty and a half. I just
this Colts team is starting to become electric on the
offensive side of the ball. Jonathan Taylor, when he holds
onto the ball all the way through the goal line,
is really ripping off some big runs. And these aren't
against you know, crap bowl of teams. I mean, Denver's

(45:38):
a good defensive team. He's running all over him. Yes,
last week against the Titans, he's running all over I
don't like their defense. Their defense give up a bunch
of backdoor touchdowns to Mason Rudolph when last scene on
the Steelers are gouldn't beat out Duck Hodges. I mean,
the Titans are not a good offensive football team, yet
they scored a whole bunch of backdoor touchdowns. I think

(46:00):
whoever starts for the Giants at home there, they're going
to want to try to get Maybe Tim Boyle can
come in and throw a late touchdown to Malik Neighbors
in the corner against that horrible Colts defense. But I
think the Colts are going to score a lot, so
you know, thirty four to seven gets you there. I
think the Colts can win this game thirty four to seven.
And I just I really like what I'm seeing lately

(46:21):
from the Colts, especially running the football and forty and
a half. It's nothing in an NFL game these days.
Forty and a half is like literally nothing. So give
me over forty and a half in the Colts g Man,
literally nothing.

Speaker 2 (46:37):
Well, how many thoughts that I had last night as
I had the over in over forty one in that
game last night.

Speaker 3 (46:42):
So yeah, that's what I thought last night as well.
So that was that was fun. That was super fun.

Speaker 6 (46:48):
Well, Flour, I don't know if you saw this, but
well Flour tried to get you there. They were being aggressive.
Even if I think it's maybe four minutes left, they
were still throwing the ball pretty deep.

Speaker 4 (46:54):
Then, oh, Matt lane Kiffin do you talk about Matt
lane Kiff on the floor fucking as what an asshole?
Seventy By the way, guys, when it's seventy six nothing
ole miss next year against Furman, don't take the under
because Lane's gonna keep throwing the ball with the fourth
spring quarterback.

Speaker 8 (47:12):
We didn't have the under.

Speaker 6 (47:12):
We had Furman plus points and we won that one.

Speaker 4 (47:15):
So I had the under two, I had plus seventy
nine and a half, and I had under I had
under eighty and a half.

Speaker 5 (47:21):
So that idiot could have killed two bets for me.

Speaker 1 (47:26):
You okay, man, No, I'm not okay.

Speaker 5 (47:29):
I'm having a bad day.

Speaker 8 (47:33):
You got nothing back. There is no games here today
to get it.

Speaker 4 (47:37):
I should frame that that ticket that we won on
Furman that time we had Furman in halftime plus seventy
nine and a half. I looked ysterical on the ticket
and some eighty and a half we even had. I'm like,
they're not going to lose eighty and then nothing?

Speaker 5 (47:50):
Are you kidding me? They almost lost eighty three nothing?
The final was seventy six nothing.

Speaker 1 (47:55):
Yep. Is that the day at the South Point that
I was down there? I think that was the day?

Speaker 6 (47:58):
No, no, no, this is this was week cool and that
was week one of the college football seasons whatever Labor
Day weekend that Saturday night?

Speaker 1 (48:06):
Oh the first one?

Speaker 8 (48:07):
Yeah?

Speaker 1 (48:08):
Yeah, okay, who's next? Todd? Your last? Will your last? One.

Speaker 5 (48:14):
I did my last one over forty and a hals
will Giants will turn.

Speaker 6 (48:18):
I don't have a third that I like, so I'm
just gonna go again. A little game theory, and I'll
go over Chief Steelers, even though I don't love it,
but I am hearing something ty game twenty a piece,
Three seconds left, Boswell lining up to kick a field goal.

Speaker 1 (48:32):
Oh my god, it's blocked.

Speaker 5 (48:33):
They're gonna run spot.

Speaker 1 (48:34):
It's gonna be up to five.

Speaker 5 (48:36):
That touchdown twenty six twenty final.

Speaker 1 (48:38):
If you had the under you lose. Oh, he totally
kills your thing. He tried to do it.

Speaker 4 (48:47):
He did a better job this time. I have to
give him credit. He actually gave us the time and score,
he gave us the situation. I thought it was a
much better thing. His last time he gave us was terrible.
But this time was it better?

Speaker 8 (48:59):
Oh it was not terrible. It was fine.

Speaker 1 (49:01):
I did a terrible one on I did a terrible
one on a numbers game. Yesterd I try to do
the Redskins ending. It was bad. I did it terriblely.
Does not wish to have quality. My last one is
the Chiefs minus two and a half tomorrow Chiefs minus
two and a half at Pittsburgh.

Speaker 5 (49:17):
Uh yeah, it looks like two and a half.

Speaker 1 (49:22):
The line, don't try to chinse me out of the
half the Chiefs. The Chiefs win, they clinched the number
one seed. They have twenty four days till their next
meaningful football game. I think they love this prospect. I
think they are going to play it to the hill

(49:42):
tomorrow to try to have that scenario. And I don't
think the I don't think the Steelers' magic beans is
going to work out against Mahomes. And I do think
Mike Tomlin has a a give up, white flag waving
punt at some point in the game. Chiefs minus two
and a half, looking for the.

Speaker 6 (50:00):
I think they just played Saturday. This feels I know
it's a quick turnaround. This is kind of jarring to
go from what was it Sunday? Saturday Wednesday, the schedule
comes out, it's like, oh, three games eleven days at
the quick turnar on. But just the feel of like, wait,
the Chiefs are playing again, recording this Tuesday, They're playing tomorrow.
It feels like they played yesterday. It feels like it's
like two games in three days.

Speaker 8 (50:19):
It's very strange.

Speaker 1 (50:21):
It's an opponent swap right, two games tomorrow. Yeah, both
of these teams played the other team's opponent on Saturday. Okay,
which brings us to our teaser of the week, which,
by the way, that thing you see in your rearview
mirror is me climbing up the leaderboard and teasers.

Speaker 8 (50:38):
Check your record, Yeah, a little chicanery with the records.

Speaker 1 (50:43):
Todd, What is your teaser record this year?

Speaker 5 (50:45):
I have only seven and nine after a thirteen and
five masterpiece last week year.

Speaker 1 (50:51):
Yeah, Matt, what's your favorite two leg six point teaser? Sir?

Speaker 2 (50:58):
Yeah, I to be fully transparent, I've been playing, right.

Speaker 3 (51:04):
I used to play teasers, Gill.

Speaker 2 (51:06):
You remember, like you know, four years ago, four or
five years ago, I played tons of teasers.

Speaker 3 (51:09):
I play more of these altline parlays now than I play.

Speaker 2 (51:11):
Teasers, just because the teaser prices have gotten out of control,
and it's just if I'm just trying to bring it
under three and I only need five points or four
and a half points or whatever it was something like that.
Like I just do that now as opposed to playing
just regular teasers, because like I can get even money
sometimes you even plus money and stuff like that. But
for the sake of keeping things nice and tidy here,

(51:32):
I will take.

Speaker 3 (51:32):
Indie and I will take the Rams in my teaser.

Speaker 2 (51:37):
So I'll take Indie down to two two and a half,
whichever one y'all want to give me. This kind of
a smattering of eight and eight and a half's out
there on Indy and then the Rams basically down to
a pick them, So that'll take it down to a
half a point against Arizona the Giants. Let's be for real.
You just got gifted like the number one pick in
the draft. This is going to be the complete no

(51:58):
show from this team. Just got the push it Overgator
starting Drew Lock again. So Drew Locks good for at
least one pick six, maybe maybe some other sort of
terrible turnover, so well, they might can't win by nine.
Indy wins this thing by field goal at least and
then Rams. I just think are better team than Arizona
right now, So give the give me the Rams to
win this thing.

Speaker 3 (52:17):
Basically, just straight.

Speaker 1 (52:19):
Up, there's a shot across the bow at will Hill.
Is what that is? Toddy?

Speaker 5 (52:26):
What do you wait before before I before you give
my teaser?

Speaker 4 (52:30):
It's thirty to twenty here in whatever they call this
stupid stadium in Washington, d C. There's only forty two
seconds left Atlanta at the twenty yard line. They could
kick the field goal here Jim to go down thirty
to twenty three, but it looks like they might decide
to go for the time. It looks like they're gonna
try to go for the touchdown White. They're twelve seconds

(52:52):
left now. The clock continues to roll. Pennix throws the deep.
Kyle Pitts tips the ball in the air, hoping an
interceptor can steal it, but I can't.

Speaker 7 (53:00):
Somebody else grabs it and they hit the pilot two
feetter in final score.

Speaker 5 (53:06):
Oh my god, Atlanta covers.

Speaker 4 (53:08):
Of the last play of the game. Final score thirty
to twenty three.

Speaker 1 (53:16):
Medic it's a it's a deep shade of eggplant purple,
is what he being?

Speaker 5 (53:22):
Okay? Uh, Indie minus two.

Speaker 4 (53:25):
Also, there are really not a lot of good choices
here for the teasers this week. It is just slim pickings.
I guess I'll take the Ravens down to plus a half.

Speaker 5 (53:37):
So I'll go Ravens plus a half. If it's a tie,
I win, And that's my two.

Speaker 1 (53:44):
Tumor, Willie.

Speaker 6 (53:49):
Yeah, I'll throw Indian there too. Torn between Miami and
Green Bay, I'll go Miami. I just think if they're
gonna play TTR. I don't know that TTR is the
worst quarterback I've ever seen in my life. But he's
certainly in the conversation.

Speaker 3 (54:01):
He's on the podium. He at least, yeah, I mean he's.

Speaker 5 (54:05):
On the bodies.

Speaker 8 (54:06):
He's certainly there.

Speaker 6 (54:07):
He had fifteen yards passing at halftime, which one of
his fifteen yards, guys, was your favorite of his passing
yards a half times Dolphins colts. The fourth was a
good one.

Speaker 1 (54:16):
Yeah, did you see did you see that fourth down?
He converted where he was like he was just sitting,
he had no idea where he was and he just
eaves it And it was like, d t R, what
a play I'm taking, Indie? And are you ready for
this second leg? You wonder why I'm five and ten
and teasers or whatever I am. The shy Town Bears

(54:36):
getting all those points against the Seahawks. Hey, the Bears
might win this. There's plus two Oh, I'm.

Speaker 5 (54:46):
Sorry, Bears plus ten nine and a half. Well another,
weren't they plus four?

Speaker 1 (54:50):
Now? Maybe that's why I'm not winning the teasers because
he's doing that ship to me.

Speaker 5 (54:54):
Oh wait, what what is the Bears line currently right now?

Speaker 3 (54:57):
Three and a half?

Speaker 4 (54:58):
Okay, so nine and a half Bears plus nine. I
actually liked that pick, Gilly that I was thinking about
that Bears as a regular standalone pick. I don't believe
in the Seahawks team at all. I think this might
be Caleb's fine. Finally he could cover the spread for somebody.

Speaker 6 (55:14):
They were four and two right now they're four and eleven.
That's correct the hail Mary had, but it was it
was a facetious four and two.

Speaker 4 (55:24):
Will you remember Will Levis gave them a game in
the beginning. The Rams gave them a game in the beginning.

Speaker 5 (55:30):
It was very Forgazy the uh it's.

Speaker 2 (55:35):
Like the defense right, like so the only thing was
like keeping them in these games is a defense, and
you were holding your hat like, okay, Caleble figured it out.
As long as this defense stays okay, like maybe the
second half of the season, they were number one against
the past three weeks one and eight. Since since Week nine,
they're twenty seventh in the NFL against the past three
weeks one and one through eight. Against the run. They
were right in middle of the pack. They were like sixteenth.

(55:56):
Now they're thirty sec. They're dead last against the run
in the NFL since Week number nine. It's just the
defense just spell off for the Bears. Is kind of
where all of these losses, you know, tend to keep
coming from with with them. But hey, Gino, uh, Gino Cangino.
Though Gino's never met a throw, Gino thinks he can't make.

Speaker 3 (56:13):
That's that's for sure.

Speaker 1 (56:15):
I love that about By the way, Todd, you used
facetious poorly.

Speaker 6 (56:20):
I can tell you I would say terribly because he
called my impression of the play I played terrible, So
I'll use his use of facetious terrible.

Speaker 4 (56:27):
No, I said the first your first attempt was terrible,
and today's was solid with trade fairly. I'm not going
to be one of these guys who just great, Oh,
everything's just great. Then you're not going to believe me
when you do a good job. When you do a
good job, I'm gonna say you did a good job,
and you're going to take pride in yourself. But you
can't just walk in here with garbage and expect me
to go. It's fantastic.

Speaker 1 (56:49):
How old were you when your mom just gave up?
How old?

Speaker 5 (56:54):
What are you?

Speaker 1 (56:56):
Well?

Speaker 5 (56:56):
There was a religious war around age twenty four?

Speaker 1 (57:02):
Final two questions of each and every megapot. And by
the way, Merry Christmas, Mary, who doesn't love Christmas? Chinese
food tonight? Oh?

Speaker 5 (57:11):
Oh, yes, outside about chicken and broccoli.

Speaker 1 (57:18):
But nice job, Gillian, I thought you'd appreciate that, all right.
Final two questions, Which of the big favorites in your
opinion is the most likely to lose? Outright? Here are
your candidates in there are not that many of them.
The Rams six and a half point favorites at home
against the Cardinals, The Colts eight point favorites on the

(57:39):
road against the Higantes, who are on the clock. The
Bills ten and a half point favorites at home against
the Jetropolitans, the Bucks eight and a half let's call
it point favorites at home against the Panthers and the Eagles.
I guess if it's Jalen Hurts nine, nine and a
half point favorites at home against the Cowboys. Oh, there's
one more on the road six and a half point

(58:02):
favorites at Brown matt Which of those is the most
likely to lose out.

Speaker 2 (58:08):
I think it's a no brainer, Tampa Bay against Carolina.
Carolina's playing with the pulse, man, like they've actually figured
some stuff out there. Bryce Young is like night and
day from when he got benched. I don't know what
happened in those few weeks that he got benched, but
it was like all of the pressure just got released
and he's just like playing football again. Dudes, like climbing

(58:28):
the pocket, making some really good throws, Like I mean,
should get let the Savior get back this week as
well against this Tampa team where if you look at
the defense for Carolina dead last in the NFL against
the run, but the actually increased over the last half
of the season to about middle of the pack versus
the past.

Speaker 3 (58:45):
So it's like, okay, path.

Speaker 2 (58:46):
Lee's resistance is the least efficient way to move the
ball and score in the NFL. So Tampa, you want
to run, that's fine. You have to be like perfect
almost for that game script to work out. I like
Carolina to keep this thing kind of scary close.

Speaker 3 (58:59):
I wouldn't surprise me if they did did win this
thing outright, Matt.

Speaker 1 (59:02):
The four bets that I have in my account as
I talked about on the radio side this morning. Three
I gave out here Detroit, Washington and the Chiefs, and
the fourth is the Carolina Panthers the morning. I'm with you,
totally with you on that. It's right, young man. Too
many points. I guessed four and a half. Dude like
I couldn't believe their.

Speaker 6 (59:24):
Taxing motivation big time and late in the year, I think, yeah.

Speaker 5 (59:28):
Wait, can I switch one of my picks to that one?
I forgot? That's a good one now.

Speaker 1 (59:32):
Oh no, no, you are not allowed to do that. No,
you are not allowed to Just joking.

Speaker 2 (59:37):
I'm looking here at the Constitution and it says no
switching at the end.

Speaker 3 (59:42):
I've looked like on page eighth in there section.

Speaker 4 (59:45):
Yeah, good job, good job institution.

Speaker 1 (59:51):
I like it. Scotti, it was the most likely lose outright.

Speaker 5 (59:55):
Is Miami a choice?

Speaker 1 (59:58):
Yes?

Speaker 8 (59:58):
You heard him read all the choices right when he
said Miami.

Speaker 4 (01:00:01):
I will say that Tua stinks. I'm sick and tired
of watching the slant play. They don't have anybody, and
then Tyreek Hill stinks too, and mister carpri Pants stinks
the worst. So I could even see them losing the
DT Are I can't even believe I'm saying this, but
I can't stand the Miami team.

Speaker 5 (01:00:23):
It's not part of the song, but Miami stinks. I
hate too. He's horrible that whatever.

Speaker 1 (01:00:31):
You need. Elon Musk caught wind of this live broadcast,
he'd be like, with this guy, this guy able to
run rough shot all over this platform, will most likely
lose outright.

Speaker 6 (01:00:47):
I agree, it's Tampa. There's actually some good candidates. There's
a lot of weeks here where you look at McMann.
I can't pick any of these teams to lose, but
I could see a handful like, hey, Philly doesn't have
hurts at that one. But I'll be different. I'll go
with Buffalo. And I was listening to our buddy crack Man.
It was on a Twitter spaces last night and he
brought somebody, it was either him or somebody brought up
a good point that if the Chiefs win, then the

(01:01:08):
Texans win, the Bills are locked into the two. They
clinch the two. They can't move up, they can't move down.
So keep that in mind this year when you know,
just late in the year, when you're talking like correlation
in terms of.

Speaker 8 (01:01:19):
Motivation things like that.

Speaker 6 (01:01:20):
So if you did, like a three team parlay of
Chiefs winning, Texans winning, maybe the Jets.

Speaker 8 (01:01:24):
Plus the points.

Speaker 6 (01:01:24):
Now, I don't think Buffalo this far out is going
to pull the plug and start, you know, resting guys.
That's a lot of time to have off. But keep
that in mind with all of these different scenarios. For
that reason, I'll say Bills. But I agree it's probably Carolina.

Speaker 1 (01:01:36):
I like that upsetting point good point correlation exists here.
They kind of legislated it out week eighteen, but week
seventeen you might be able to find some stuff. I'm
with Matt. The most likely lose outright is the Tampa
Bay Buccaneers. I would agree with that. And then the
final exercise, the final question, Matt, you live in a
bizarre world. You have to bet side in each and

(01:01:58):
every one of these NFL games, but you are allowed
one free pass one game. You want no part of whatsoever.

Speaker 2 (01:02:07):
Tennessee Jacksonville because I'd have to watch that thing.

Speaker 3 (01:02:10):
I mean, like like, get me out of there.

Speaker 2 (01:02:11):
I mean, seriously, tell me the difference in either one
of these teams. It's lined appropriately at one, which basically
we don't know the difference in either one of these
teams Tennessee Jacksonville.

Speaker 3 (01:02:21):
No no clue as to what to do with that thing.

Speaker 1 (01:02:24):
Wasn't this the matchup from a couple weeks ago where
I said, I was like, how much would you have
to be paid to watch this game? And then it
ended up being a stinker?

Speaker 6 (01:02:31):
Yeah, I think Todd had a couple of live bets
on that game to did those go Todds?

Speaker 4 (01:02:35):
Are you talking about when Ridley decided to run out
of bounds and not get the first down when it
was third and five, Because, by the way, you want
to stop the clock before you get the first down
so you can have the fourth down.

Speaker 5 (01:02:46):
Of course it's very smart.

Speaker 1 (01:02:50):
Any thoughts on Matt Lafleur before we leave in.

Speaker 5 (01:02:53):
I don't like that guy, Todd?

Speaker 1 (01:02:56):
What's your game? You want no part of?

Speaker 2 (01:03:00):
Uh?

Speaker 4 (01:03:02):
I don't want any part of this Washington Comman Deers
against your Atlanta Falcons. I don't know what this Pennox
guy is. Is he the incredible masculine thrusting that Willie
calls him, or is he you know nothing, Maybe he's
just a nobody.

Speaker 5 (01:03:18):
But I don't know what we're getting with that.

Speaker 4 (01:03:21):
And of course the commanders, you know, when they play
Spencer Rattler, they've got no defense. Well, they've got no
defense period, So whatever, I don't want to play that team.

Speaker 1 (01:03:29):
You completely underestimate their defense. Their defense is a solid
middling defense. You think they suck, They don't.

Speaker 5 (01:03:36):
Suck against Spencer Rattler.

Speaker 1 (01:03:39):
All right, Frankie Louvu sacks you in your pie hole face.
Whatever it is, you come back to me. You let
me know how good was.

Speaker 3 (01:03:48):
The addition?

Speaker 5 (01:03:48):
A lot of more.

Speaker 2 (01:03:49):
The last couple of weeks has been huge, Like he
has shut down one side of the field for that team,
which they didn't have for the first you know, ten whatever, twelve.

Speaker 3 (01:03:56):
Weeks of the season or something. It's it's noticeable that
he's that he's out there, that's for sure.

Speaker 1 (01:04:02):
He's noticeable. He's out there for for good or bad.
He had a couple of bad plays against Brown too,
but that the second game in Big Up. You lose Forbes,
you gain Laddim. That's massive. Mine is or will your turn?

Speaker 8 (01:04:17):
Vikings Packers? Big game, hell of a game. Vikings minus
one looks about right to me. I don't want any
part of that one.

Speaker 1 (01:04:23):
How how you feeling about your Vikings? How does this
play out?

Speaker 6 (01:04:25):
For them four game winning streak away from the super Bowl,
just trying to trying to get one at a time
they're gonna lose.

Speaker 8 (01:04:33):
Probably.

Speaker 4 (01:04:35):
I'm gonna even root for the Floor, even though I
hate that guy. I'm gonna root for him just to
beat your goddamn Darnold's.

Speaker 1 (01:04:44):
Rams. Cardinals. For me, I have no idea about either
of those. I really don't like. I know one's eliminated
and ones in the top of the division. If you
flip lop them, I'd be like, sure, sure, But the
Rams man there their second half adjustments. A lot of
these teams follow the same script. It feels like every
week the Eagles generally close game, then they just wear

(01:05:06):
you out. Bengals is like a tennis match. Can you
hold serve? Can you break serve? And with the Uh
with the Rams, it's they make great second half of
Justin McVeigh and the coaching staffcause there's a lot of
credit for that. But I still want to gentlemen, Happy
holidays to all, will with your seventeen children, Merry Christmas.

(01:05:27):
I hope they get everything they want on the Christmas tree.
Once again, for the second straight year, I bought them nothing.

Speaker 5 (01:05:33):
I hope they get a piece of coal. I hope
they get a piece of Wow.

Speaker 4 (01:05:39):
Isn't that a thing like you get on Christmas or something?
Where did I come up with that from?

Speaker 3 (01:05:43):
No?

Speaker 2 (01:05:44):
No, that's that was the thing that as a child
of like, that's why you're good because you're gonna get.

Speaker 3 (01:05:49):
Cold and I'm klling.

Speaker 2 (01:05:51):
I don't give a ship like whatever, that's not You
should threaten me with something way worse than that.

Speaker 3 (01:05:55):
I mean, I mean, like, all right, that doesn't seem much.

Speaker 1 (01:06:02):
Matt Brown, your Twitter is what Matt Brown M two
Correct Matt Brown M two Vsent host Matthew Brown, Matteo Moreno,
you're listening in Spanish, Todd? Wishev at t wishev? Todd?
You putting people on your college basketball thing? Or No?

Speaker 4 (01:06:18):
I mean you can. You can send me a d
M when I get around to doing it. It just
takes too much time. And Willie's constantly texting me.

Speaker 5 (01:06:25):
He's like, eleven am, we got a game. Let's go
day game with day basketball. You know, so I gotta
watch the games and there's no time to do anything else.
What do you want from me?

Speaker 4 (01:06:32):
I gotta watch for like Radford against you know, South Carolina, upstate.

Speaker 1 (01:06:37):
What else are you gonna do? You got no other responsibilities?
You're gonna do that? I understand.

Speaker 4 (01:06:42):
Sometimes, I mean there is you know, showering once every
couple of months. You know that's important, he wished on Twitter.

Speaker 1 (01:06:51):
He has, He's getting more hygienic. Will Hill not b
Will Hill should have. Bet Moore is the name of
his podcast, Check me Out on a Numbers game at
VS in the noon Monday through Friday. Thank you, Merry
Christmas to all. Good luck with all your bets. Week seventeen.
Yeah then ashion what BLI Thanks for watching