January 15, 2025 • 51 mins
Gill Alexander, Todd Wishnev (VSiN Contributor), Will Hill (VSiN Contributor), and Drew Dinsick (NBC Sports Edge) break down all of the Divisional Round NFL betting action! The quartet gives you their best bets of the week, best teaser options, which big favorite is most likely to lose outright, and the game they want no part of.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:03):
Check it down, man, it is the Divisional Round Megapod
Thursday morning or no, pardon me, Wednesday morning. Not a
problem with January fifteenth, twenty twenty five, The Beating the
Book Podcast Live on Twitter, Gil Alexander, the staples of
the show, Todd wishnev different angle from his mom's cork
attic in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania because he had to use an
(00:25):
alternative computer. How you doing, Toddy?
Speaker 2 (00:28):
Hey?
Speaker 1 (00:28):
Hey, he just struggled with a computer for thirty minutes.
Will Hill at not the Will Hill on Twitter, by
the way, host, So this should have been more podcasts
from a not his mom's core attic somewhere in Connecticut.
Speaker 3 (00:44):
Are you do know?
Speaker 2 (00:45):
Willie?
Speaker 4 (00:46):
What's going on?
Speaker 2 (00:47):
Guys? Seven games left? Gott to enjoy him?
Speaker 1 (00:50):
Do you want to say anything? As a Minnesota Vikings fan?
Do you want to start up?
Speaker 3 (00:53):
I say the people, No, this is I don't know
what stage of the grief I'm in. And there's some
fandom that its wounded. There's some like eighty to one
Super Bowl futures that are wounded. I should have known better.
I shouldn't have gotten my guard up down where you're
not supposed to have your guard even a little bit.
This is the Minnesota Vikings, this is Sam Darnold. I
(01:13):
deserve all of the pain.
Speaker 1 (01:14):
For believing even a little bit. Oh, very hard show
and our guest. We always love to have our favorites
during the playoffs who were also kind enough to join
us during the regular season. He is kind beyond belief
because he does it with us every year. Obviously, I'm
retweeting now the live feed. Obviously he comes on a
(01:36):
Numbers game every Tuesday. He is the host of not
one but two of his own podcasts, The Deep Dive
with Andy Molitor, which is outstanding, and then NBC Sports
at the Edge, which he does with Jake Croucher. It's
our buddy, Drew Dinset a whale underscore. Kapper was hadding it.
Speaker 4 (01:52):
Oh, just happy to be here, delighted as always, an
honored to be invited to participate in the most important
betting weekend of the year. Divisional Round is the best
of these are the best games. You can make a
credible case that we might be watching the Super Bowl
to facto on Sunday afternoon. I don't think that's outrageous.
(02:14):
And yeah, this is this is going to be a
fun podcast. Happy to see you guys, and four Will's Vikings.
I just want to paint a little I know that
you know, losing an eighty to one future stinks, but
I gotta tell you what, Like the infrastructure is there.
You got a coach that can develop a quarterback, and
you got a young quarterback that you're paying nothing for
the next three years. Like if the sky should be
(02:36):
blue for the Vikings because you have two elite weapons.
You can invest your draft in your free agent resources
now in the offensive line. It's unlikely now that Brian
Flores gets sniped as a head coach. So the whole
band comes back. Yeah, I think Minnesota is going to
be a force to be reckoned with three years to come.
Speaker 3 (02:57):
I appreciate the pep talk. I think you're right. The
only problem is from a betting standpoint, that eighty one
is going to be Like, yeah, but I agree with you.
Speaker 1 (03:07):
Can I can douse a little water on the fire
of the Minnesota Vikings. Just I want to throw this
out and see if you guys buy into this. That
they have had now I think even beyond this year,
I think for two years running now, they have had
a particularly fortunate one score wrecord. Oh yeah, and I do.
I do wonder if you go to a rookie quarterback
(03:29):
if that's as likely to manifest even beyond normal regression.
So that's that's just the one thing I would say
about the Vikings. I get it, Washington, you agree?
Speaker 5 (03:38):
What do you, guys, Washington about the other quarterback from
Michigan is stinks? Okay, JJ McCarthy, please give me a break.
Did you guys watch any college football? He is going
to be terrible. And Sam Darnold is who we thought
he was. He and so is Russell Wilson. He's who
we thought was. They're going nowhere. You don't have a quarterback,
my friend, You're going nowhere now, Drew like put lipstick
(04:01):
on a pig and tell you you're going somewhere. You're going nowhere,
and you're going fast.
Speaker 1 (04:07):
Wow. I wish nev fair friend. Point counterpoint with Will Hill, No,
I think it's I don't know, man, it sucks because again,
fourteen and three and then poof is not fun. And
obviously if we have an eighty to one that is
not fun at all. I do wonder if go ahead,
(04:29):
I'm sorry ahead.
Speaker 4 (04:31):
Like you could have gotten Daniel Jones with Sam Donald though,
if they pay him for you dollars, are you feeling good?
Speaker 3 (04:39):
No?
Speaker 4 (04:39):
I don't think so.
Speaker 3 (04:40):
Like it's the unknown of McCarthy and then it's the
known of Donald in the flaws and giving him the money.
So it's not like you have a slam dunk even
b plus quarterback next year.
Speaker 1 (04:52):
You don't.
Speaker 2 (04:52):
You have unknown and unknown.
Speaker 1 (04:57):
I I bring this up also because it's our it's
our buddy at churn Off brought this up. Someone sent
me a video of him talk about Washington now. But
I just want to bring this up before we start
with our bets, which is Adam. I don't know if
he had Tampa Bay and we love Adam, but he
had I don't know if he had Tampa Bay and
it was just bitter about this whatever. But it was
a video that said he called Washington the luckiest team
(05:19):
of his life. And I object to this characterization as
a Washington fan because I believe that they're you know,
he's in the video he cited. I believe third down
and fourth down conversion, and I think not all third
down and fourth down conversions are equal. I think if
you look at the Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles. That
(05:39):
was a particularly fortunate team that had a wildly successful
rate of like third and seven's and longer. This Skins
team is not like. This is very short yardage with
a magic man as quarterback. There is never a time
where you feel like it is impossible for them to convert.
It is very casual. And I don't find them lucky.
(06:02):
I mean you have to have some good fortune, sure,
but by and large I don't find them lucky at all.
Am I wrong about that?
Speaker 4 (06:11):
I mean there's degrees of luck. You know, the fact
that they got to play Dallas twice when Dak Prescott
wasn't the quarterback, that's that's fortunate. The fact that they
got to they had four a fourth place schedule, the
Hail Mary game, they did have some some end of
end of game things break in their favor. But we
(06:34):
could make it. We could make a list. But yeah,
Redy Morris, we can make a list. But I don't
think they would come up in the top ten of
lucky teams in recent memory.
Speaker 5 (06:43):
Fortune sure, but it's funny that you say that, Gilly,
because I think you could argue the Vikings have a
better roster. I'm not take out the quarterback for a second.
The Vikings have a better roster than the Redskins. However,
I'd rather be the Redskins because the Redskins have a
quarterback who is going to be electric and can be
in that top tier theoretically with the Mahomes's and the
(07:06):
Jackson's and the Allen's and those people, whereas Minnesota a
better roster but doesn't have that quarterback component. And I
think in the NFL, if we look back at who
wins the super Bowl every year, it seems to me
the electric quarterback. Take Nick Foles out. I guess he's
the outlier, but almost every year it's the incredible quarterback
(07:27):
that wins the super Bowl. Jimmy Garrapple doesn't win the
super Bowl, Mahomes wins the super Bowl. You know, Brock
Party doesn't win the super Bowl. Mahomes wins the super Bowl.
Jalen Hurts doesn't win the super Bowl. Homes wins the
super Bowl.
Speaker 1 (07:40):
It's my line that you cannot win a super Bowl
without a Hall of Fame quarterback or a quarterback over
performing on a rookie contract. Those are the only two
ways to win a super Bowl. The last exception, what
you brought up was Foles, but really Carson Wentz was
on a rookie deal, so it doesn't really count. And
before that you have to go all the way back
to Brad Johnson and try Dilford two thousand and two
(08:01):
with the Bucks, Brad Johnson two thousand Trent Dilford with
the Ravens for an exception to that rule. That is
about as steadfast as it gets. And so if you
look at that of these you go ahead, well, I'm sorry.
Speaker 3 (08:13):
No, I agree completely with the sentiment. I would say
there is a little bit of a self fulfilling prophecy
nature to it, where none of us would consider Eli
Manning a Hall of Fame quarterback if he hadn't won
the Super Bowl. So it's like when you win the
Super Bowls, now you're a Hall of Famer. So there
is a little bit of like, you know, that aspect
of it, like if Stafford hadn't won a Super Bowl,
he probably wouldn't be All of Famer.
Speaker 2 (08:32):
ELI without the Super.
Speaker 1 (08:33):
Bowls is not ELI is the I'll give you Eli
E LII is the only exception to that. Stafford might have
accumulated enough stats or even if he didn't win a
super Bowl.
Speaker 5 (08:41):
He was getting it all. Maybe like he has, Stafford
is later than Sam Donald. Do you think like if
we if we if we say, okay, here's Sam Donald
at age whatever he is, and here's Stafford at at
that same age. Stafford's a much better quarterback than that
guy that Sam Donald is. You know, he's he's worked.
You know you can win some games with Sam Donald,
(09:02):
but you never say to yourself, oh my god, Sam
Donald's gonna take it to the super Bowl. I don't
see it.
Speaker 1 (09:08):
DoD, what were our records last week? Do you know?
Speaker 5 (09:10):
I know I was had an outstanding record, Gilly with
a two and oh and a one and oh and
teasers as well, Rams which was beautiful in Texans, which
was beautiful. You also had Rams plus seven and Commanders
plus nine on the teasers, so two and oh one
and oh for you, Willy went one and one one oh.
I had a terrible oh and two with my yensers
and the Tampa Bay over oh and two oh and one,
(09:31):
and the guests had two and oh and oh and
one on the teasers.
Speaker 2 (09:36):
Clevela, what were my picks, Toddy? Your picks were Washington
plus three and Rams plus one so you lost Washington
plus three. No, you're actually two.
Speaker 3 (09:48):
He does this all year, He does this all year.
In the last place, Yeah, because he had Washington.
Speaker 2 (09:54):
Why did I give myself in two?
Speaker 6 (09:57):
Then?
Speaker 2 (09:57):
Why did I give myself into then creative accounting?
Speaker 1 (10:02):
He hates Washington that much, He hates me that much
that he was just like.
Speaker 2 (10:04):
What you talk about.
Speaker 6 (10:05):
I had Washington. I had Washington.
Speaker 5 (10:07):
And by the way, I think we were very fortunate
to win that game without the Baker Mayfield.
Speaker 1 (10:13):
You know, is right? Everybody everybody says that you're right
the Baker Mayfield fumble at the end. Oh wow, you
were fortunate about that. But how many points did Washington
leave on the board in that game? Also? Right? Like me,
there's a bunch of that.
Speaker 6 (10:26):
But that was the problem to get it inside the
five yard line. And they could not run the ball
at all on Tampa, so they were one dimensional and
then they were having massive problems once the field got small.
You couldn't throw it up in there. And I just
don't know if if if that's gonna if they can't
run the ball against the Lions, Katie bar the door,
the Lions are gonna win by a million.
Speaker 1 (10:47):
You better run, Washington had a Washington had a first
and goal with the three where they had to settle
for a field goal, and they had a first and
goal at the one where they got zero points. So right, yeah,
you're right, Baker Mayfield fumble. But let let's decide what's
fortunate and what's not. I mean, I don't care how
bad your running game is. First and goal at the one,
you kind of have to knock it in, right, Like,
you're still not fortunate not getting it in. So I
(11:09):
don't know if we did a if we did a
Dumbo of the Week, I don't think there's like a
massively obvious candidate. But I'll throw out a few things.
There was a fourth in inches for Mike Tomlin in
his own territory early in that game against the Ravens
where he decided to punt. It wasn't four than one,
it was fourth in inches. I'll throw that out there.
(11:31):
Todd Bowles had a couple he let ten seconds run
off the clock for no reason at the end of
the first half. The Bucks ended up scoring anyway after
after Mike Evans threw Latimore down to the ground and
then Latimore got flagged for the subsequent thing. But before
that he let ten seconds go off the board. Tampa
Bay scored anyway. And then the very first thing that
(11:52):
happened in that Tampa Bay Washington game. It was a
fourth and seven for Tampa Bay. They kicked the fifty
yard field goal, but Washington was called off side. Washing
was called for off side. It was a fourth and two,
and Todd Bowles said, we'll just keep the points.
Speaker 5 (12:08):
So there was the first half Raheem Bowls. That was
the worst that at the end of the first half
with his.
Speaker 1 (12:13):
Bowl, I think that's it. Like I'm thinking of the
other gives. The other gives were such blowouts that there
wasn't anything.
Speaker 3 (12:21):
Didn't Sean Payton have some things where he should have
challenged or a couple of things. I honestly, once uh
Buffalo got in control, I was kind of doing other
things and had the game on in the background. I
know some people said Peyton did some Peyton did some
strange things in terms of what he what he did
or didn't challenge.
Speaker 2 (12:35):
I don't know.
Speaker 3 (12:36):
Did you did you catch that, Drew?
Speaker 4 (12:39):
I was, I was like you, I was as soon
as it was like this thing is over.
Speaker 2 (12:45):
There was one catch.
Speaker 5 (12:46):
I think it might have been in the Bills game,
which is like a long pass to Concaid. I think
it was maybe a thirty yard past to Cancaid and
the ball clearly hit the ground and the Bills knew
it and they ran up and quickly ran a play
and made it before I think referring to yeah, okay, yeah.
Some of the times it might be a giveaway if
the other team's rushing to run and play and they're
(13:08):
all maybe that's a giveaway.
Speaker 6 (13:11):
You want to get.
Speaker 2 (13:12):
Your replay guy out there and figure it out.
Speaker 3 (13:14):
But the flip side of that is you take your time,
and while you're taking your time, they're gonna catch They're
going to see the uh there. So it's really hard
to let's be casual, but let's get this off very quickly.
Speaker 1 (13:25):
It's very hard to do both.
Speaker 5 (13:27):
Oh no, I'm saying the other team, if you see
the other team hurrying, you better get your red flag
out because they're obviously hurrying for a reason.
Speaker 4 (13:39):
You were suggest.
Speaker 3 (13:41):
Yeah was it the forty nine Ers Eagles NFC title
game a couple years ago, DeVante Smith the first drive
clearly drops the ball. He's telling the whole team, Hey,
get on the ball. Get on the ball. Shanahan's just
sitting there watching it happen, and it was a drop
and then yeah, the whole game, you know, went off
the rails from there.
Speaker 1 (13:57):
The one down at like the five yard line, that one.
Speaker 3 (14:00):
Yes, fourth down terrible.
Speaker 1 (14:03):
Yeah, brutal. I'm sorry.
Speaker 4 (14:05):
I thought overall the coaching was pretty fair and pretty
good across the wild card weekend. I'll give my Dumbo
of the Week to uh Sirianni and Kellen Moore.
Speaker 5 (14:14):
Uh.
Speaker 4 (14:15):
To have that offensive output with all of those weapons
against at home against the Green Bay defense, that's not
really worth writing home about it, I think is pretty
It's pretty suss. Although the Eagles are going to come
up again in a bit for and I'm going to
have a very different take, I think.
Speaker 3 (14:32):
Yeah, by the way, when a small one, can I
have one small one? It was O'Connell please taking his
sweet ass time like late in that game, running the ball,
huddling almost like.
Speaker 2 (14:42):
Bleeding they were going to come back. That was just
very bizarre.
Speaker 1 (14:46):
Yeah, that's actually the winner. That was weird. There were
two consecutive running plays when they were down multiple scores,
and you're like, what are they doing?
Speaker 4 (14:56):
Yeah, they ate five minutes on a drive that ended
up as a punt between the third and fourth quarter
and the game is over.
Speaker 2 (15:01):
Yeah, well, they were trying to just over the line.
Speaker 5 (15:05):
They were getting nineteen and a half, I believe on
the old line minus five eighty or something like that,
and so O'Connell had that bet.
Speaker 4 (15:14):
Yeah, they're trying to defend the second half plus six too,
and you know, or minus six. They didn't get there.
Speaker 1 (15:20):
Well aware, by the way, nine sacks of Donald. Give
me the pie chart on what percentage fault that was
was Donald's and what was the offensive line?
Speaker 4 (15:29):
Seven out of nine Darnald. Yeah, the time, the time
that he was taking to make the decisions and the
inability to even consider the checkdowns was pretty pretty brutal.
But again, like that was the narrative coming into that
was the handicap coming into that game, which is the
Rams can get quick pressure up the middle. And the
(15:49):
major takeaway of Mike's Lions was that Donald was staring
down the pressure like they kind of didn't matter who
was coming when he was. He just wasn't he wasn't
playing quarterback.
Speaker 1 (16:02):
Throw the ball away, man, like he just oh oh.
Speaker 4 (16:06):
There was guys open those guy's open underneath all day.
It was. That was a weird one.
Speaker 5 (16:11):
The Rams deserves the trip of the hat they've given
up and three in the last four real games. I'm
not counting the last game of the year where it
wasn't really a game. I'm talking about the real games.
I mean, no one would have said that before those
four games. The previous game for that, they give it
forty two or forty four to the Bills. After that nine, nine,
nine and three, no one had them not getting the
(16:34):
other team to double digits four.
Speaker 2 (16:35):
Times in a row.
Speaker 1 (16:37):
And Todd knows that because Steve Feszig and I were
batting it back and forth about this line for the
Rams Philly game where we're OPO, as we'll find out
here momentarily. So Todd researched that. Okay, by the way,
Drew had a spectacular wildcar weekend. He already told me,
was like, ah, man should come on last week, so
let's see.
Speaker 4 (16:56):
Well, it sounds like you guy, It sounds like Cleve
did did well. No, and I think we had the
same two sides, So that's good.
Speaker 1 (17:02):
Yeah, I would be both you and me between football
and tennis. This is a great run for both of us.
So let's see we can continue it with the divisional
round here. I assume there was no in game todd
to speak of, and go to the bets.
Speaker 5 (17:17):
Yeah, I didn't really do much on the in game
on the wild could I was busy losing money in
college basketball.
Speaker 1 (17:23):
Okay, so what's the story. We do two picks here
again for divisional round. Two picks, yes, yes, two picks. Okay, Drew,
you start, sir, what is your first best?
Speaker 4 (17:34):
Okay, this is tough. These are all pretty good numbers.
I'm gonna I'm gonna go. I'm gonna stick stick with
what got me here. Two weeks in a row, I've
gone him backing the Texans, and I still am surprised
that the market is not correctly adjusting for what is
(17:55):
the best defense playing right now and across all the
football and in a new setting. There is certainly a
lot to be said about the fact that Mahomes is
on the other sideline. Andy Reid has had an extra
week to prepare for you, and in general, the Chiefs
are healthy at home obviously, But over the balance of
the season, I think we've learned a couple important things
(18:15):
about the Chiefs. They don't have any tackles, they are
susceptible to pass rush, particularly quick pressures around the edge,
and Pad Mahomes, for whatever reason, has regressed in terms
of his ability to be the magician that never gets sacked.
He has taken a lot more sacks this year and
has been a lot less effective as a scrambler for
reasons unknown. But I think a lot of it has
(18:38):
to do with the quality of the tackle play that
they've had throughout the balance of the season, and I
think Houston is definitely capable of continuing their brilliance in
terms of pass rush and quick pressure. On top of that,
Mahomes and this just the schematic kind of identity of
the Chiefs this year has been a lot more vertical passing.
They are trying to push the ball further downfield, and
(19:00):
while they do have the weapons certainly to create separation
and win at the point of point of the catch.
This is the most outstanding cornerback unit that they've come
up against. And these guys are playing with confidence and
they are literally keen on a couple of key takeaways
per game, and I think, really if they can create
some turnovers and generate some pressure, I think the Texans
(19:22):
are alive to be the spoiler this week, but the
fact that they're getting eight points is really I think
a bridge too far. My fear for this one is seven,
and actually consensus says eight and a half, So I'll
take eight and a half. And I think ultimately like
the Texans offense is just a brutal, brutal entity. It
(19:45):
is not fun to watch. It is not well schemed,
it's not well structured, and Bobby Slowic sequencing is appalling.
The running is extremely predictable, and the interior pass the
interior of the offensive line needs to be completely replaced
if they're going to be a functional offense next year.
And they're up against Chris Jones, who can be a
complete game wrecker. So I get it that it's going
(20:08):
to be a little bit of a fragile situation. If
Houston can have a couple of clean drives and generate
I mean, the Chiefs can have a couple clean drives
and generate a lead. But I do think one of
the other kind of Achilles heels we've seen throughout the
season for this Chiefs defense is their ability to defend
elite wide receivers and Nico Collins is that guy right now,
and so fingers crossed, he gets like fifteen targets in
(20:30):
this game. I think the fact that CJ. Stroud was
consistently under pressure up the middle against the Chargers and
comported himself effectively is a positive sign. The fact that
he was kind of back to doing his magical stuff
at third and a million is a positive sign. And
I think the Texans are alive to be a little
bit of a fly annointment of what otherwise looks to
(20:50):
be a pretty predictable championship game weekend.
Speaker 2 (20:54):
So Texans plus nine is your pick.
Speaker 4 (21:00):
Eight and a half, which I think is consensus right now.
Speaker 2 (21:03):
I was gonna give you a nine.
Speaker 4 (21:04):
Zirka has eight. The only nine out there is is
pretty is pretty expensive. I'll take a flat eight and
a half.
Speaker 2 (21:13):
Okay, So Texans plus eight and a half for Drew.
Speaker 1 (21:16):
Let me ask you this question, Drew, I too was
on the Texans mine last week. I cited the Chargers
strength of victory. Their paltry three forty eight strength of
victory made three forty eight by their two wins over
the Broncos. They don't have those, it's even more anemic.
But I just want to ask this, there's no way
to know the answer, but I'm always curious about you
(21:36):
guys view stuff like this. So we won that bet.
They end up winning by twenty points. It ends up
not being a sweat at all.
Speaker 2 (21:44):
But if CJ.
Speaker 1 (21:46):
Stroud doesn't complete at third and sixteen from their own
seventeen where the snap goes past him, he collects the
ball flushed out to the right, find Xavier Hutchinson down
the middle for thirty four yards. If that doesn't happen,
do you believe we win that bet?
Speaker 4 (22:03):
In the uh? Maybe right before that play, I think
I was texting with Andy and I was like, I can't, Like,
I really hope they get some points on this track
so I can get the heck off this. But but no,
(22:23):
But the fact that they that he completed those third
and forever like miracle stuff, and the fact that they
were finally targeting Nico, I was like, oh, I was like,
I was like I was waiting to see this, like
thank you, like finally, and and stayed well, I was
waiting for halftime. They got three more points at halftime,
and then I was like, well, now it doesn't actually
now the price doesn't even make sense.
Speaker 1 (22:43):
To get off.
Speaker 4 (22:44):
So I'm just gonna ride this and see if they
can can put it away. And ultimately, the you know,
the defense was able to come up with points themselves
to seal it. And you know, again like there's there's certainly,
you know, Pat Mahlomes is the boogeyman, Like I know this,
Like I'm not an idiot. I'm on against him in
this spot in playoffs past and then been regretful and uh,
(23:07):
you know, certainly the fact that he plays with so
much confidence because he's been here so many times and
it's just completely unflapped, unflappable in the playoff setting is
not lost on me. But yeah, there's there's a world
where you know, people like, oh, that's the Pat Mahomes
I saw in the Super Bowl against the Buccaneers who
was running for his life and you know this was
you know, trying to play catch up. And you know,
(23:28):
I like that as part of the kind of distribution
of potential outcomes for this game as opposed to you know,
a game where the Texans just are a no show.
Speaker 1 (23:38):
Yeah, I just I just always find that that being
fascinating out football. This doesn't apply for basketball. It doesn't
necessarily apply for baseball either. Football is one of these
things where it's like, look, we won by twenty we
had the dog, easy, peasy, but like if that one
thing doesn't happen in the certain quarter, yeah, you.
Speaker 4 (23:53):
Know, like if you bet, if you bet the Eagles,
you need to do some soul searching if you feel
like that was a comfortable one.
Speaker 5 (23:59):
Yeah, and an NFL it happens more than in college football.
I feel like like one play in the NFL can
be the whole game, whereas in college the kind of
cream rises the top. It seems like they're it's not
just down to one play typically, But I don't know anyways.
Speaker 1 (24:15):
I'm just saying, as as better as we don't necessarily
acknowledge that all the time, right, cool.
Speaker 2 (24:22):
I acknowledge that.
Speaker 5 (24:23):
I was very happy that Baker Mayfield. I kept texting
you guys saying, when is Baker Mayfield going to have
a brain fart like he always does, and it's got
to come here sooner or later.
Speaker 2 (24:32):
And then he finally did one, and it was like, thankful.
Speaker 1 (24:36):
Since you bring this up. I wasn't going to bring
this up, but Will knows where I'm going where I'm
going with this, so We're on a group Textsikk, Me,
Will and Todd. So this is the first playoff game
as a Washington fan, right, I've had in years. I
haven't won one in nineteen years. Todd will not stop
walking texting the whole time. It's not as simple as
(24:57):
putting the phone away, because every time it I'm like,
what happened? Oh, something was about to happen, and I'm
just like, Todd, shut up.
Speaker 2 (25:05):
I was being rather negative. I'll be honest.
Speaker 5 (25:08):
I was being rather negative because I didn't like my
Washington bed and every person get into five yard one
can't get a score, and and then I stopped, and
then I was much more positive after that. But because
it was your first playoff game since, you know, back
before the Barry Bonds and Joe Gibbs administration. So uh, anyways,
(25:28):
we pulled it out. But I did text in the
middle there where is when is Baker Mayfield going to
make a Baker Mayfield brain fart?
Speaker 3 (25:35):
And and he texted a lot of things, So I mean,
you could have filled a lot of playing with anything there.
If there was a referee for our group chat, If
there was a referee our group chat, you would have
fouled out multiple times?
Speaker 5 (25:46):
Was it not right that Mike Evans throws the guy
downy track of anything?
Speaker 3 (25:51):
And I was rooting for I had Washington too, I'm
rooting for Gilly. I'm kind of living vicariously through Gilly.
Of like, man, the excitement of is the stress of
this thing. It's tought everything, man, I can't I can't
believe that plan.
Speaker 6 (26:01):
Chris FeliCa.
Speaker 5 (26:03):
That was a legitimate pass interference. Mike Evans literally knife
the guy at gunpoint. He stabbed him with the machete
while holding on eighteen forty and then what with a
penalty a lot of more.
Speaker 2 (26:16):
Give me a break, Chris, that was not a legitimate penalty.
I'm sorry.
Speaker 1 (26:20):
I'm sorry.
Speaker 5 (26:21):
Your best bets, my best bet is going to be unfortunately.
Speaker 2 (26:27):
What do you have for the Lions game? Nine and
a half? Yeah?
Speaker 4 (26:34):
And a half.
Speaker 7 (26:37):
I'm gonna lay nine and a half with Dan Campbell
minus the nine and a half, and I'll tell you
why there's a guy down in Pittsburgh almost I had
a heart attack with that Redskins team last week.
Speaker 5 (26:51):
We're gonna kick the crap out of those boys. I
think if you have problems in the red zone, against
the Lions. It's curtains, baby, because the lies. Look the commanders,
I know Gilly likes to make excuses for his commander's defense.
The commander's defense is not good, okay, and the whole
game I'm holding on with dear life. Please, can somebody
(27:13):
stop Mike Evans from running wide open down the middle
of the field or that auton guy. Look, the commanders
did a great job, you know, duct taping that defense together,
but now you're going against the juggernaut of juggernaut offenses inside.
There's no weather inside. Jared Goff is gonna pick these
(27:34):
boys apart. They're gonna run for a mile. That guy
Bucky Irving is still running on some of these run plays.
I don't even know where the Redskins defense was at all.
They literally were. And what's funny is because there's so
few possessions in that game, there was barely any stops
in the whole game. If you think about it. You know,
Mayfield stopped himself on that fumble, and then they stopped
themselves on that third and one with the stupid handoff.
(27:56):
I just don't see the commander's defense being able to
slow the Lions down. And if the If, the If,
the Skins who. By the way, I love this team.
I even bet them to win the Super Bowl at
like twenty two. Well, I love Daniels. I think he's
gonna be amazing. I just think they're they're a great
story and they're gonna you're gonna hear from this team
in the future. But now you're asking them to go
(28:19):
on the road against a juggernaut offense that is going
to not be stopped. So now you have to score
with them. Well, there's not gonna be anything bullshit about it.
Well we got inside the ten eight hundred times and
we didn't get it in. Well, you better get it
in because if you don't get it in, you're gonna
get blown out. And I think that's what's gonna happen.
I think the luck is finally where the fortunateivity. While
(28:40):
was I don't agree with Adam Turnoff that they're the
most lucky team in the history of the NFL, I
do think they've been quite fortunate this year. I don't
see it. Lions minus nine and a half this week.
I think it's I think the storybooks coming to an end.
Speaker 1 (28:54):
I have said all year. I have said all year,
they are a playoff team that could maximum win one player.
So nothing about that.
Speaker 4 (29:03):
No, uh no, no concern that the Washington franchise owns
the lines in the playoffs. Three now in the history
of the Grave franchise. Yes, Wayne Fawns, I remember the
NFC championship game in nineteen ninety two. That was a
spectacular forty one absolute thumping. Yes, Mark on the.
Speaker 3 (29:28):
Side, I thought, Darryl same age. That's about when I
start like I watched football those years. But I think
ninety three ninety four, like those Bill's Cowboys, is probably
my first memory. I don't remember, like that's right at
the cutoff of like that's a game.
Speaker 1 (29:42):
I just don't remember.
Speaker 3 (29:43):
How old are you?
Speaker 4 (29:43):
Drew?
Speaker 5 (29:44):
That was?
Speaker 1 (29:45):
That was Aaron Shotts's greatest football team of all time,
the nineteen Washington I.
Speaker 5 (29:50):
Remember I heard Barry Bonds running the ball and throwing.
Speaker 4 (29:56):
They washed ever to that season before they took a loss,
that we were we were talking. You know, they knew
those guys were gods. In my elementary school classroom. We
were talking about in an undefeated season and then the
Cowboys punked them, but they still and it was awesome.
Speaker 1 (30:12):
Levin to know what I want to say, And Michael
Irvin kept posting up Darryl Green and Cowboys beat him.
Greatest team of all time, Toddy his team of all time?
Mark Ripping? How many times were you just sacked all year?
Good trivia question? Anyone? Vin?
Speaker 4 (30:28):
Seven? Was it seven?
Speaker 1 (30:31):
Seven?
Speaker 4 (30:31):
All right?
Speaker 2 (30:32):
I thought Bonds was the quarterback that year, not Ripping.
But anyways, Willie, what's your pick?
Speaker 3 (30:38):
I'll go pretty quickly here. I don't have a ton
that I love, as you guys kind of mentioned, as
Drew mentioned, I will go under forty one and a
half Texans chief I do believe that's the consensus number.
I just think the Chiefs are getting healthier on defense.
Watson back is going to be something that matters the defense.
With and without him, there's a big difference there. I
(30:59):
think that he Houston is legitimately good on defense and outdoors.
A Houston team, you know, with a shaky offense playing
cold weather on the road. I just look at like
a twenty four to seventeen type of game. There's not
a ton of wiggle room. But I just think Kansas
City healthier defensively. Houston really good defensively, Kansas City not
(31:19):
as explosive as in years past, you know, as we've learned.
So I will go under forty one and a half here.
Speaker 1 (31:27):
I have made two bets, which is convenient that we
have two plays here. I have exactly that many bets.
I am on the Los Angles Rams plus six versus
the Philadelphia Eagles. This is the one where Fezik and
I disagree on vehementley. I couldn't believe that a full six.
(31:47):
It was a violent disagreement. In the words of Michael Lombardi,
it was a violent disagreement. I violently disagree with you, Gil,
I'm like violently.
Speaker 2 (31:58):
H Speaking of which is that guy went to eight
thousand kids.
Speaker 6 (32:01):
Is he in the Hall of Fame yet?
Speaker 2 (32:02):
Philip Rivers?
Speaker 1 (32:05):
No, not yet, it's not eligible.
Speaker 2 (32:07):
There was a guy who got.
Speaker 5 (32:09):
Very upset when I was on ANG and said, I
don't think Philip Rivers is a Hall of Famer. And
he told me and I said, I don't want to
live in a world where Philip Rivers is a Hall
of Famer.
Speaker 2 (32:18):
He got very upset with me.
Speaker 1 (32:21):
Think I get the argument against the Rams people who
love Philly, but that the Rams again they're going to
be in cold weather. Everything that's going back going on
back in LA with the Wildfires. It's one thing to
play a de facto home game in Arizona. It's another
thing to go three thousand miles to play at Philly.
But I think the Rams are that team. I've always said,
(32:42):
besides the usual suspects this year, besides the Ravens, Bills,
Chiefs in the AFC, besides the Lions and Eagles in
the NFC, that the Rams are the sneaky, freaky team here,
that they are built in a way that fits the
profile of past Super Bowl champions. I'm not saying they're
winning the Super Bowl. I'm saying, of all the other teams,
they have a Hall of Fame quarterback, have a good
(33:02):
running game, they have a great pass rush. There's a
lot to love about this team. And I'm sorry that
Puka Nakua is exactly the kind of wide receiver I
want out there against the Eagles in that environment. Tough
player the Eagles. A lot of people are dismissing that
Eagles performance last week as well. Listen, Jared Jalen Hurts
from the concussion didn't really get the reps. That was
(33:26):
a really listless performance. I'm not so quick to dismiss it.
You're giving me six points. I will happily take the sick.
Rams are right first, Drew Ski, your number two are
we OPO.
Speaker 4 (33:38):
We're APO, And yeah, I took the best defense in
the AFC catching points in the first one, and I'm
going to back the best defense in the NFC laying
points in the second of my two picks, and it
is the Philadelphia Eagles. And this is not really to
take away any of your argument there, but I will
say that there is a big picking sides at this
(34:00):
stage is flipping coins. These are very very well understood markets,
and I'm literally keying on what I think is a
pretty aggressive step up in terms of style of defense
that the Rams were preparing for last week compared to
what they're going to see with the Eagles. In general,
I look at an Eagles defense that you know, what
(34:21):
vic Fangio has done to really kind of coach up
the young guys is spectacular. I think he has done
the best coordinating job of anyone this year. We can
point to Ben Johnson, but he's working with so many
weapons it's almost an embarrassment of riches. Vic Fangio is
employing a really complex defense that kind of takes away
what Sean McVay does the best, I think, and the
(34:41):
fact that they can generate pressure with their front four
pretty consistently is just kind of the huge element here.
The Eagles really don't have to blitz much to generate pressure,
and the Eagles were able to contain this running attack
extremely effectively. The first time these team played, Karen Williams,
every time he touched the ball was a minus in
that head to head, And I think that just in general,
(35:03):
the Eagles defense is going to be the standout unit here.
With the support of the home crowd and the travel
issues for the Rams, the early kickoff for the Rams,
the short week for the Rams, and in general, like
there was a couple of guys get that got banged
up pretty quietly in that game for the Rams offense,
that I think is kind of good. You know, everybody's
playing hurt this time of year. I know that, but
you know, if they are step slow, and if the
(35:25):
Eagles defenses, you know, comes in, comes in and performs
to their baseline. I think the Rams are going to
have a tough time getting into the twenties here. And
while I do not love going to war with Jalen Hurts,
he is not my guy. I do think that last
week a lot of his issues were related to the rust.
He missed almost twenty days of practice, and you know,
(35:45):
it felt like in a lot of ways they didn't
really know what they were going to get from him
where they coordinated the game. And I think with a
full week of normal practice and kind of lessons learned
from the tape against the Packers, you're going to get
a little bit more. You know, it's cleaner offensive performance
here from the from the Eagles. And on top of that,
like the Rams defense was awesome last week, and Todd
(36:09):
brought it up that they've been on a little bit
of a heater. They do one thing well and that
is generated interior quick pressure, and the Eagles have the
perfect counter to that, which is the best interior offensive
line of football. And I think that in general, if
you are not getting quick pressure against Jalen Hurts and
AJ Brown and DeVante Smith, are you know, be able
(36:29):
to create separation against a cornerback unit that is bottom half,
if not bottom ten in the NFL, then I think
the passing game is going to look a lot cleaner here. Similarly,
the screen game with Saquon Barkley is going to be
very difficult for the Rams to have, you know, just
perfect tackling against and and yeah, I'm just in general
(36:51):
seeing a pretty balanced attack here for the Eagles against
a Rams team that's going to be stuck in mud,
against a better defensive styling that kind of is hand
in glove to stop them. So Eagles minus six for me.
And yeah, it's painful because the biggest win of my
life was Rams Super Bowl in twenty twenty one and uh,
(37:13):
Cooper Cup getting that m VP and h it, I don't,
I don't, I'm not seeing it this year. They needed
like the Rams could win the Super Bowl this year,
but they needed the Packers to play a better game.
They just needed Packers to play a cleaner game and
get it right, get knocked the knock the Eagles out,
and then the Rams are are on their way to
New Orleans. And I think this is the one opponent
(37:34):
that they match up poorly against.
Speaker 1 (37:37):
Well when you put it that, no, I'm Drew and
they okay, Todd, because we got to go Will out
of here. So let's uh, let's race through. What's you're saying.
Speaker 2 (37:50):
I'm going to go under in that same game. I
think that the Rams defense has really been playing well.
Speaker 5 (37:56):
We've already talked about that. I think the Eagles defense
is elle illegally. I think we're I mean their defense,
granted they played horribone offense, but their defense was outstanding.
I thought, you know, the Green Bay everyone's down on
them because the last week's the season, But there was
a couple of weeks there they were just mowing people
down with their offense, and you couldn't stop their run game.
(38:17):
You couldn't stop anything they were doing. The Eagles made
it look easy defensively, so I think they're going to
hold the Rams down. I think the Rams can hold
the Eagles down.
Speaker 6 (38:25):
Again.
Speaker 5 (38:26):
We don't think the Eagles are clicking one hundred percent
on offense, so under forty four to me looks good.
I'll take under forty four in that Eagles game.
Speaker 1 (38:35):
Wilson Hillson, I'm.
Speaker 3 (38:38):
Going to go Ravens Bills. We have one and a
half here, Ravens Lane. Yep, I'm gonna go with the Ravens.
They played in Week four, Baltimore won convincingly by twenty
five points, eight yards per play to four yards per play,
and I just think Baltimore is better, and I think
they're bigger. I think Buffalo is really small in the
defensive line, and again, Henry, that's bad news. So I
(39:01):
just think Baltimore is better than Buffalo by more than
the gap of home field advantage, whatever that's worth. I
do have some concern about Tucker. It's something we talked about,
like every week he's missing kicks. He's missing multiple kicks.
That's quietly flowing under the radar because they're winning blowout
and you know, they scored all touchdowns last week and
scrimmage against the Browns a couple of weeks ago, it
was all touchdown. It was all touchdowns, no.
Speaker 2 (39:22):
Field goals, no clutch field goals.
Speaker 3 (39:24):
I do worry if he has to sink like a
forty eight yard or with thirty seconds left, is that
going to go you know, wide left or something that
That is in the back of my head. But I
just think Baltimore is the better team here. I am
going to go with Baltimore mightus the point and a half.
Speaker 1 (39:36):
By the way, it's a point, not a point A
point here we go. I messed that up. I'm with you.
Aimore's yeah, Baltimore is my pick as well. I've had
them as number one for maybe six seven weeks. Now
I think the best team in football. I've got Lamar
Jackson MVP. None of this means I hate the Bills
(39:56):
or Josh Allen. I know Bills fans think I do.
I think Baltimore is just the best team in football.
I think they're the most balanced team in football. I
think this is their year where they win it all,
and I think it starts with this one. And I
think you know people are gonna still give Lamar Jackson
a stigma. Oh he can't win the big playups. Well,
you know that's the case until he does. And I
(40:17):
think this is the time he does. And Derrick Henry
is the ultimate counterpart against Buffalo. Buffalo is for most.
Speaker 2 (40:25):
Of the year.
Speaker 1 (40:25):
And I know they're getting guys back here that they
didn't have the first time they played when Baltimore crushed them.
But generally speaking, this year, Buffalo has been a team
that has bent a lot and not broken. I think
they get broken here and I think Baltimore wins it.
Minus went by the way, I guess minus two and
a half on guessing lines. You know, the night before
when these came out and even into Monday morning, the
(40:48):
Bills were still favored. I couldn't believe it. It has
come not completely my way, but most of the way,
or at least halfway to me. I mean, I think
it's more. I think it's great. Baltimore's better team.
Speaker 2 (41:00):
Yeah, go ahead, go ahead.
Speaker 4 (41:02):
I think two. Yeah, I think two and a half
is going to be your open. If it's a case
next week, that seems right to me. So you're on
the right train.
Speaker 1 (41:11):
I need to ask in favor of Baltimore, Okay, just making.
Speaker 4 (41:16):
Sure Baltimore minus two and a half at Casey next
week is my fair at least I would be surprised
if and if they if they beat Buffalo in the spot,
they'll get upgraded again. So yeah, two and a half,
maybe even three, maybe closes three. The other question is
what what's your degree of confidence right now in Lamar
Jackson m VP.
Speaker 1 (41:37):
Oh, that it actually manifests better than fifty percent. I'm
going to go sixty percent. I feel confident you.
Speaker 4 (41:49):
I think actually, I think it's I think it's done.
Really the ap all pro vote was was really was
really surprising. It's just totally there's going to be there's
going to be a lot of ballots that are Lamar
Burrow Hellen, and there's going to be If there's five
of those, then it's going to go Lamar.
Speaker 2 (42:10):
Killy.
Speaker 5 (42:10):
Are you concerned about the fact that the Ravens defense,
which was crappy early in the years, has like kind
of looked They've looked better than they really are playing
these five games, their last five games, Giants, Steelers, Houston,
Cleveland Steelers, none of those teams with an NFL offense,
(42:31):
and that's made their defense look better than it actually is,
and maybe their defense is still the crapola that we
saw early in the year.
Speaker 2 (42:38):
Are you concerned about that?
Speaker 1 (42:41):
Yeah, I mean there's certainly competition matters, for sure, but
I think in the end, who's more likely to stop who?
I mean, this could be one of these games where
you just got to hold Serve a couple times, or
you've got to break Serve a couple times. I'm way
more confident in Baltimore being able to do that against
Buffalo than I am Buffalo being able to do that
against Baltimore better.
Speaker 4 (43:01):
I would also point out that, you know, what you're
pointing to lately is a reflection of they haven't played
any good quarterbacks and that their pass defense looked better.
The run defense for the Baltimore Ravens has been all
the worldly, elite all year, right, And if you look
at what Buffalo is doing to generate success, it's they're
staying on schedule. Their running attack is super is really
really helping the offense broadly. And if that if you
(43:24):
take that away and they have to just beat you know,
Josh Allen, you know he can beat you through the air,
but these weapons really that scary. This the passing game
for the Bills really that scary, not not not in
my opinion. So it was I think that matchup comes
down to Ravens run d versus Buffalo run offense.
Speaker 1 (43:43):
When Curtis Samuel scored for Buffalo, who's doing that game?
I can't remember what they were just gushing over Curtis Samuel.
I'm like, really, is that what we're doing now? Or
like I think it is. Samuel is awesome. That was
the Romo game.
Speaker 5 (43:59):
Made the catch of the century in the back of
the end zone for the Bills. That guy I don't
even know how he caught it and kept his knee
and bounds and everything.
Speaker 1 (44:06):
That was that was incredible. All right, Teaser of the
week is at current at current lines, these are the
week Drew would be.
Speaker 4 (44:19):
It's going to be Detroit Buffalo for me. I'm gonna
tickle three and a half here with the Lino's and
I'm going to take Buffalo out to eight. I'm sorry,
buffal out to seven. The terrible, terrible teaser, terrible teaser.
Speaker 1 (44:38):
Well, we only have a week and choose from here.
Speaker 4 (44:40):
Terrible, terrible, terrible.
Speaker 2 (44:43):
I'm gonna go also with Detroit because I think it's
over for Kill's Washington boys. He even agrees it sounds
like uh, and I'll take the Eagles down to zero.
Speaker 1 (44:55):
I do think this. I don't think they get blown out.
I think they put up a good performance and they
lose by a touchdown.
Speaker 3 (45:00):
Will I'll go Chiefs Bills just because that one, that one,
one and a half, whatever it is with the Bills
is enticing.
Speaker 2 (45:07):
I do think it'll be a close game.
Speaker 3 (45:08):
So Chiefs Bills again, not a ton of options.
Speaker 1 (45:13):
I'm taking the two on what am I doing? I'm
doing the Chiefs and the Lions, Chiefs, Lion.
Speaker 4 (45:21):
I got to advocate if you're going to play a
Chiefs Lions teaser. I think the mat says, you know,
seven point teaser, it's more expensive, but but you get
you get the you get them, you get it back.
Speaker 1 (45:37):
But we are we are beholden to the megapod constitution,
and I even really think we should be asked to
pick a teaser when there's four games, to be fair.
That's true, that's true. Well this will be last week.
Speaker 2 (45:50):
So what do you have? Chiefs minus two and a half?
Speaker 1 (45:52):
And what all right, Chiefs minus two and a half,
and then what lions? What is it three and a half?
Now would be a lion and a half? Yeah, yeah,
all right, the final two questions of this in each
and every megapot, this is actually a good one for
this week, all right, of the big favorites, this is
perfect for this week. So just throw out Baltimore Buffalo
take the other three game, Chiefs against the Texans, Lions
(46:15):
against the Commodores, and the Eagles against the Rams. Who
is the most likely to lose? Out right?
Speaker 4 (46:23):
I think it's the Chiefs, but I have a very
weak opinion of that.
Speaker 1 (46:28):
You've backtracked a little on that this week, haven't you.
Speaker 4 (46:30):
Yeah, everybody and everybody in my circles like, don't be
an idiot, Mahmes, He's gonna make these guys. CJ. Strowd
and this Sexons offense is terrible, and like I am,
you know why I'm in this spot where I'm backing
the Texans in the playoffs and I'm still kind of
stuck on my preseason rating for this team was this
is going to be like a viable AFC championship team,
Like I thought, you know, just looking at the talent
(46:52):
on this team, I was like, these guys are going
to be good.
Speaker 2 (46:55):
CJ.
Speaker 4 (46:55):
Stroud and you're two stepping forward ball And they've lost Digs,
they lost Tank Dell, but they still have a pretty
deep wide receiving corps beyond Nico Collins to the point
where they just cut Deontay Johnson. So you know, I think,
I think, I'm I'm I'm a little stuck on my
preseason prior for them as being being for real and.
Speaker 2 (47:13):
The data line the problem.
Speaker 4 (47:17):
The thing that was weird, Like last year their offensive
line was awful and they were all hurt all year
long and it didn't really matter. Like CJ. Stroud was
kind of protection agnostic and for some reason this year
he's taken a step back. I don't know if they're
asking him to do different stuff or what, But I
also think a lot of the kind of modification of CJ.
Stroud at the end of last year was really just
(47:38):
the emergence of Nico Collins as a wide receiver, one
top five guy in the NFL, and his absence through
the middle of the season, and when he came back,
he wasn't as explosive and now he looks now he
looks explosive to me. So I'm pitting a lot of hope,
hopes and prayers on mister Nico Collins being a difference maker.
Speaker 3 (47:55):
The Vikings, by the way, beat the Texans thirty four
to seven when the Texans were healthy, which will look
very good on a banner up and up.
Speaker 1 (48:05):
Todd most likely to lose out right of those three
big favorites.
Speaker 2 (48:07):
Is I think the Vikings. The Vikings are definitely going
down this week. I don't know about what you guys think.
I'm gonna pick the Vikings and the Indiana Fever.
Speaker 5 (48:19):
Uh No, I'm going to say the biggest team to
lose is going to be Yeah, I'm gonna go with
the I just don't see it. I mean, I guess
I'll pick the Texans, but I don't see it. I
think that I think the team total for Houston is
going to be under Actually, I don't think they're going
to score that. If they're going to win this game,
they're gonna have to win a real ugly one.
Speaker 2 (48:36):
I think.
Speaker 3 (48:38):
Really, Sorry, you said Eagles counts as one. Yes, yeah,
I'll go with the Eagles. Pass rush a quarterback basically,
have a Hall of Fame quarterback, a Hall of Fame coach,
and you got a good pass rush, you got.
Speaker 1 (48:49):
A shot Eagles for all the reasons will state Eagles
most likely to lose out And then you have to
bet a side in three of these, but you get
one game you want no part of what Drew is
the which of these four is the one you would
least like to bet on the.
Speaker 4 (49:03):
Side the it's the It's the Ravens Bills. But it's
because I have a lot of interest in the Ravens
futures wise, and so I'm not trying to double down
at an expensive price right now. The I, like I
said like at the top, this to me is the
(49:23):
de facto Super Bowl. If they beat the Bills on
the road, in this spot. I think the Ravens, I
think they're home.
Speaker 1 (49:31):
Dotty.
Speaker 2 (49:33):
I don't want that Bills game. I don't, I don't,
I don't. I have no idea who's going to win
that game.
Speaker 3 (49:40):
Well, I think the Lions probably roll, but I'd be
very concerned about Jaden Daniels backdoor cover. So, I mean
nine and a half is a lot. Defense isn't good
for Detroit, So you better have some margin if you're
Detroit going into that final drive.
Speaker 1 (49:55):
If that's the scenario, will you and me are sharing
the same brain? I I really think that people think,
you know, people who think it's going to be just
a runout. I'm not one hundred percenture.
Speaker 4 (50:06):
Really, I get teeny tiny comment on that game. If
you're considering taking plus nine and a half points with
the Commanders, can I just implore you to split steak
and take half on money line as well, because what
do you know about these two teams? They're both going
to lean into the volatility of the fourth down.
Speaker 2 (50:21):
Go for it.
Speaker 4 (50:22):
This is going to be a high This is going
to be a big swing win probably to game, whether
you're converting your fourth downs or you're not. And if
the Lion of Lions missed a couple and the Commanders
get a couple like you're not covered nine and a half,
you're winning. And I think ultimately that I think that
there's probably no better example of this that we've had
(50:43):
all year. I don't think there's two coaches that I
would say are more inclined to lean into aggressive, you know,
fourth down decision making. So this is gonna be a
cool game.
Speaker 1 (50:52):
Will's got to run, so we got to run. Will's
got other things to do. It's very busy man. Thank
you Drew for everything. Tennis and football both appreciate it.
Good Luck, Todd wishnev again t wish Will Hill at
not the Will Hill to E's on the V and
Drew Dinsig at Whale underscore Capper. I'm at beating the book.
Of course, you might be watching it through that. That's
(51:13):
why I say, of course, thanks for watching. Good luck
with all your bets in the divisional round of the
National Football League player, thanks for watching.
Check it down, man, it is the Divisional Round Megapod
Thursday morning or no, pardon me, Wednesday morning. Not a
problem with January fifteenth, twenty twenty five, The Beating the
Book Podcast Live on Twitter, Gil Alexander, the staples of
the show, Todd wishnev different angle from his mom's cork
attic in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania because he had to use an
(00:25):
alternative computer. How you doing, Toddy?
Speaker 2 (00:28):
Hey?
Speaker 1 (00:28):
Hey, he just struggled with a computer for thirty minutes.
Will Hill at not the Will Hill on Twitter, by
the way, host, So this should have been more podcasts
from a not his mom's core attic somewhere in Connecticut.
Speaker 3 (00:44):
Are you do know?
Speaker 2 (00:45):
Willie?
Speaker 4 (00:46):
What's going on?
Speaker 2 (00:47):
Guys? Seven games left? Gott to enjoy him?
Speaker 1 (00:50):
Do you want to say anything? As a Minnesota Vikings fan?
Do you want to start up?
Speaker 3 (00:53):
I say the people, No, this is I don't know
what stage of the grief I'm in. And there's some
fandom that its wounded. There's some like eighty to one
Super Bowl futures that are wounded. I should have known better.
I shouldn't have gotten my guard up down where you're
not supposed to have your guard even a little bit.
This is the Minnesota Vikings, this is Sam Darnold. I
(01:13):
deserve all of the pain.
Speaker 1 (01:14):
For believing even a little bit. Oh, very hard show
and our guest. We always love to have our favorites
during the playoffs who were also kind enough to join
us during the regular season. He is kind beyond belief
because he does it with us every year. Obviously, I'm
retweeting now the live feed. Obviously he comes on a
(01:36):
Numbers game every Tuesday. He is the host of not
one but two of his own podcasts, The Deep Dive
with Andy Molitor, which is outstanding, and then NBC Sports
at the Edge, which he does with Jake Croucher. It's
our buddy, Drew Dinset a whale underscore. Kapper was hadding it.
Speaker 4 (01:52):
Oh, just happy to be here, delighted as always, an
honored to be invited to participate in the most important
betting weekend of the year. Divisional Round is the best
of these are the best games. You can make a
credible case that we might be watching the Super Bowl
to facto on Sunday afternoon. I don't think that's outrageous.
(02:14):
And yeah, this is this is going to be a
fun podcast. Happy to see you guys, and four Will's Vikings.
I just want to paint a little I know that
you know, losing an eighty to one future stinks, but
I gotta tell you what, Like the infrastructure is there.
You got a coach that can develop a quarterback, and
you got a young quarterback that you're paying nothing for
the next three years. Like if the sky should be
(02:36):
blue for the Vikings because you have two elite weapons.
You can invest your draft in your free agent resources
now in the offensive line. It's unlikely now that Brian
Flores gets sniped as a head coach. So the whole
band comes back. Yeah, I think Minnesota is going to
be a force to be reckoned with three years to come.
Speaker 3 (02:57):
I appreciate the pep talk. I think you're right. The
only problem is from a betting standpoint, that eighty one
is going to be Like, yeah, but I agree with you.
Speaker 1 (03:07):
Can I can douse a little water on the fire
of the Minnesota Vikings. Just I want to throw this
out and see if you guys buy into this. That
they have had now I think even beyond this year,
I think for two years running now, they have had
a particularly fortunate one score wrecord. Oh yeah, and I do.
I do wonder if you go to a rookie quarterback
(03:29):
if that's as likely to manifest even beyond normal regression.
So that's that's just the one thing I would say
about the Vikings. I get it, Washington, you agree?
Speaker 5 (03:38):
What do you, guys, Washington about the other quarterback from
Michigan is stinks? Okay, JJ McCarthy, please give me a break.
Did you guys watch any college football? He is going
to be terrible. And Sam Darnold is who we thought
he was. He and so is Russell Wilson. He's who
we thought was. They're going nowhere. You don't have a quarterback,
my friend, You're going nowhere now, Drew like put lipstick
(04:01):
on a pig and tell you you're going somewhere. You're going nowhere,
and you're going fast.
Speaker 1 (04:07):
Wow. I wish nev fair friend. Point counterpoint with Will Hill, No,
I think it's I don't know, man, it sucks because again,
fourteen and three and then poof is not fun. And
obviously if we have an eighty to one that is
not fun at all. I do wonder if go ahead,
(04:29):
I'm sorry ahead.
Speaker 4 (04:31):
Like you could have gotten Daniel Jones with Sam Donald though,
if they pay him for you dollars, are you feeling good?
Speaker 3 (04:39):
No?
Speaker 4 (04:39):
I don't think so.
Speaker 3 (04:40):
Like it's the unknown of McCarthy and then it's the
known of Donald in the flaws and giving him the money.
So it's not like you have a slam dunk even
b plus quarterback next year.
Speaker 1 (04:52):
You don't.
Speaker 2 (04:52):
You have unknown and unknown.
Speaker 1 (04:57):
I I bring this up also because it's our it's
our buddy at churn Off brought this up. Someone sent
me a video of him talk about Washington now. But
I just want to bring this up before we start
with our bets, which is Adam. I don't know if
he had Tampa Bay and we love Adam, but he
had I don't know if he had Tampa Bay and
it was just bitter about this whatever. But it was
a video that said he called Washington the luckiest team
(05:19):
of his life. And I object to this characterization as
a Washington fan because I believe that they're you know,
he's in the video he cited. I believe third down
and fourth down conversion, and I think not all third
down and fourth down conversions are equal. I think if
you look at the Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles. That
(05:39):
was a particularly fortunate team that had a wildly successful
rate of like third and seven's and longer. This Skins
team is not like. This is very short yardage with
a magic man as quarterback. There is never a time
where you feel like it is impossible for them to convert.
It is very casual. And I don't find them lucky.
(06:02):
I mean you have to have some good fortune, sure,
but by and large I don't find them lucky at all.
Am I wrong about that?
Speaker 4 (06:11):
I mean there's degrees of luck. You know, the fact
that they got to play Dallas twice when Dak Prescott
wasn't the quarterback, that's that's fortunate. The fact that they
got to they had four a fourth place schedule, the
Hail Mary game, they did have some some end of
end of game things break in their favor. But we
(06:34):
could make it. We could make a list. But yeah,
Redy Morris, we can make a list. But I don't
think they would come up in the top ten of
lucky teams in recent memory.
Speaker 5 (06:43):
Fortune sure, but it's funny that you say that, Gilly,
because I think you could argue the Vikings have a
better roster. I'm not take out the quarterback for a second.
The Vikings have a better roster than the Redskins. However,
I'd rather be the Redskins because the Redskins have a
quarterback who is going to be electric and can be
in that top tier theoretically with the Mahomes's and the
(07:06):
Jackson's and the Allen's and those people, whereas Minnesota a
better roster but doesn't have that quarterback component. And I
think in the NFL, if we look back at who
wins the super Bowl every year, it seems to me
the electric quarterback. Take Nick Foles out. I guess he's
the outlier, but almost every year it's the incredible quarterback
(07:27):
that wins the super Bowl. Jimmy Garrapple doesn't win the
super Bowl, Mahomes wins the super Bowl. You know, Brock
Party doesn't win the super Bowl. Mahomes wins the super Bowl.
Jalen Hurts doesn't win the super Bowl. Homes wins the
super Bowl.
Speaker 1 (07:40):
It's my line that you cannot win a super Bowl
without a Hall of Fame quarterback or a quarterback over
performing on a rookie contract. Those are the only two
ways to win a super Bowl. The last exception, what
you brought up was Foles, but really Carson Wentz was
on a rookie deal, so it doesn't really count. And
before that you have to go all the way back
to Brad Johnson and try Dilford two thousand and two
(08:01):
with the Bucks, Brad Johnson two thousand Trent Dilford with
the Ravens for an exception to that rule. That is
about as steadfast as it gets. And so if you
look at that of these you go ahead, well, I'm sorry.
Speaker 3 (08:13):
No, I agree completely with the sentiment. I would say
there is a little bit of a self fulfilling prophecy
nature to it, where none of us would consider Eli
Manning a Hall of Fame quarterback if he hadn't won
the Super Bowl. So it's like when you win the
Super Bowls, now you're a Hall of Famer. So there
is a little bit of like, you know, that aspect
of it, like if Stafford hadn't won a Super Bowl,
he probably wouldn't be All of Famer.
Speaker 2 (08:32):
ELI without the Super.
Speaker 1 (08:33):
Bowls is not ELI is the I'll give you Eli
E LII is the only exception to that. Stafford might have
accumulated enough stats or even if he didn't win a
super Bowl.
Speaker 5 (08:41):
He was getting it all. Maybe like he has, Stafford
is later than Sam Donald. Do you think like if
we if we if we say, okay, here's Sam Donald
at age whatever he is, and here's Stafford at at
that same age. Stafford's a much better quarterback than that
guy that Sam Donald is. You know, he's he's worked.
You know you can win some games with Sam Donald,
(09:02):
but you never say to yourself, oh my god, Sam
Donald's gonna take it to the super Bowl. I don't
see it.
Speaker 1 (09:08):
DoD, what were our records last week? Do you know?
Speaker 5 (09:10):
I know I was had an outstanding record, Gilly with
a two and oh and a one and oh and
teasers as well, Rams which was beautiful in Texans, which
was beautiful. You also had Rams plus seven and Commanders
plus nine on the teasers, so two and oh one
and oh for you, Willy went one and one one oh.
I had a terrible oh and two with my yensers
and the Tampa Bay over oh and two oh and one,
(09:31):
and the guests had two and oh and oh and
one on the teasers.
Speaker 2 (09:36):
Clevela, what were my picks, Toddy? Your picks were Washington
plus three and Rams plus one so you lost Washington
plus three. No, you're actually two.
Speaker 3 (09:48):
He does this all year, He does this all year.
In the last place, Yeah, because he had Washington.
Speaker 2 (09:54):
Why did I give myself in two?
Speaker 6 (09:57):
Then?
Speaker 2 (09:57):
Why did I give myself into then creative accounting?
Speaker 1 (10:02):
He hates Washington that much, He hates me that much
that he was just like.
Speaker 2 (10:04):
What you talk about.
Speaker 6 (10:05):
I had Washington. I had Washington.
Speaker 5 (10:07):
And by the way, I think we were very fortunate
to win that game without the Baker Mayfield.
Speaker 1 (10:13):
You know, is right? Everybody everybody says that you're right
the Baker Mayfield fumble at the end. Oh wow, you
were fortunate about that. But how many points did Washington
leave on the board in that game? Also? Right? Like me,
there's a bunch of that.
Speaker 6 (10:26):
But that was the problem to get it inside the
five yard line. And they could not run the ball
at all on Tampa, so they were one dimensional and
then they were having massive problems once the field got small.
You couldn't throw it up in there. And I just
don't know if if if that's gonna if they can't
run the ball against the Lions, Katie bar the door,
the Lions are gonna win by a million.
Speaker 1 (10:47):
You better run, Washington had a Washington had a first
and goal with the three where they had to settle
for a field goal, and they had a first and
goal at the one where they got zero points. So right, yeah,
you're right, Baker Mayfield fumble. But let let's decide what's
fortunate and what's not. I mean, I don't care how
bad your running game is. First and goal at the one,
you kind of have to knock it in, right, Like,
you're still not fortunate not getting it in. So I
(11:09):
don't know if we did a if we did a
Dumbo of the Week, I don't think there's like a
massively obvious candidate. But I'll throw out a few things.
There was a fourth in inches for Mike Tomlin in
his own territory early in that game against the Ravens
where he decided to punt. It wasn't four than one,
it was fourth in inches. I'll throw that out there.
(11:31):
Todd Bowles had a couple he let ten seconds run
off the clock for no reason at the end of
the first half. The Bucks ended up scoring anyway after
after Mike Evans threw Latimore down to the ground and
then Latimore got flagged for the subsequent thing. But before
that he let ten seconds go off the board. Tampa
Bay scored anyway. And then the very first thing that
(11:52):
happened in that Tampa Bay Washington game. It was a
fourth and seven for Tampa Bay. They kicked the fifty
yard field goal, but Washington was called off side. Washing
was called for off side. It was a fourth and two,
and Todd Bowles said, we'll just keep the points.
Speaker 5 (12:08):
So there was the first half Raheem Bowls. That was
the worst that at the end of the first half
with his.
Speaker 1 (12:13):
Bowl, I think that's it. Like I'm thinking of the
other gives. The other gives were such blowouts that there
wasn't anything.
Speaker 3 (12:21):
Didn't Sean Payton have some things where he should have
challenged or a couple of things. I honestly, once uh
Buffalo got in control, I was kind of doing other
things and had the game on in the background. I
know some people said Peyton did some Peyton did some
strange things in terms of what he what he did
or didn't challenge.
Speaker 2 (12:35):
I don't know.
Speaker 3 (12:36):
Did you did you catch that, Drew?
Speaker 4 (12:39):
I was, I was like you, I was as soon
as it was like this thing is over.
Speaker 2 (12:45):
There was one catch.
Speaker 5 (12:46):
I think it might have been in the Bills game,
which is like a long pass to Concaid. I think
it was maybe a thirty yard past to Cancaid and
the ball clearly hit the ground and the Bills knew
it and they ran up and quickly ran a play
and made it before I think referring to yeah, okay, yeah.
Some of the times it might be a giveaway if
the other team's rushing to run and play and they're
(13:08):
all maybe that's a giveaway.
Speaker 6 (13:11):
You want to get.
Speaker 2 (13:12):
Your replay guy out there and figure it out.
Speaker 3 (13:14):
But the flip side of that is you take your time,
and while you're taking your time, they're gonna catch They're
going to see the uh there. So it's really hard
to let's be casual, but let's get this off very quickly.
Speaker 1 (13:25):
It's very hard to do both.
Speaker 5 (13:27):
Oh no, I'm saying the other team, if you see
the other team hurrying, you better get your red flag
out because they're obviously hurrying for a reason.
Speaker 4 (13:39):
You were suggest.
Speaker 3 (13:41):
Yeah was it the forty nine Ers Eagles NFC title
game a couple years ago, DeVante Smith the first drive
clearly drops the ball. He's telling the whole team, Hey,
get on the ball. Get on the ball. Shanahan's just
sitting there watching it happen, and it was a drop
and then yeah, the whole game, you know, went off
the rails from there.
Speaker 1 (13:57):
The one down at like the five yard line, that one.
Speaker 3 (14:00):
Yes, fourth down terrible.
Speaker 1 (14:03):
Yeah, brutal. I'm sorry.
Speaker 4 (14:05):
I thought overall the coaching was pretty fair and pretty
good across the wild card weekend. I'll give my Dumbo
of the Week to uh Sirianni and Kellen Moore.
Speaker 5 (14:14):
Uh.
Speaker 4 (14:15):
To have that offensive output with all of those weapons
against at home against the Green Bay defense, that's not
really worth writing home about it, I think is pretty
It's pretty suss. Although the Eagles are going to come
up again in a bit for and I'm going to
have a very different take, I think.
Speaker 3 (14:32):
Yeah, by the way, when a small one, can I
have one small one? It was O'Connell please taking his
sweet ass time like late in that game, running the ball,
huddling almost like.
Speaker 2 (14:42):
Bleeding they were going to come back. That was just
very bizarre.
Speaker 1 (14:46):
Yeah, that's actually the winner. That was weird. There were
two consecutive running plays when they were down multiple scores,
and you're like, what are they doing?
Speaker 4 (14:56):
Yeah, they ate five minutes on a drive that ended
up as a punt between the third and fourth quarter
and the game is over.
Speaker 2 (15:01):
Yeah, well, they were trying to just over the line.
Speaker 5 (15:05):
They were getting nineteen and a half, I believe on
the old line minus five eighty or something like that,
and so O'Connell had that bet.
Speaker 4 (15:14):
Yeah, they're trying to defend the second half plus six too,
and you know, or minus six. They didn't get there.
Speaker 1 (15:20):
Well aware, by the way, nine sacks of Donald. Give
me the pie chart on what percentage fault that was
was Donald's and what was the offensive line?
Speaker 4 (15:29):
Seven out of nine Darnald. Yeah, the time, the time
that he was taking to make the decisions and the
inability to even consider the checkdowns was pretty pretty brutal.
But again, like that was the narrative coming into that
was the handicap coming into that game, which is the
Rams can get quick pressure up the middle. And the
(15:49):
major takeaway of Mike's Lions was that Donald was staring
down the pressure like they kind of didn't matter who
was coming when he was. He just wasn't he wasn't
playing quarterback.
Speaker 1 (16:02):
Throw the ball away, man, like he just oh oh.
Speaker 4 (16:06):
There was guys open those guy's open underneath all day.
It was. That was a weird one.
Speaker 5 (16:11):
The Rams deserves the trip of the hat they've given
up and three in the last four real games. I'm
not counting the last game of the year where it
wasn't really a game. I'm talking about the real games.
I mean, no one would have said that before those
four games. The previous game for that, they give it
forty two or forty four to the Bills. After that nine, nine,
nine and three, no one had them not getting the
(16:34):
other team to double digits four.
Speaker 2 (16:35):
Times in a row.
Speaker 1 (16:37):
And Todd knows that because Steve Feszig and I were
batting it back and forth about this line for the
Rams Philly game where we're OPO, as we'll find out
here momentarily. So Todd researched that. Okay, by the way,
Drew had a spectacular wildcar weekend. He already told me,
was like, ah, man should come on last week, so
let's see.
Speaker 4 (16:56):
Well, it sounds like you guy, It sounds like Cleve
did did well. No, and I think we had the
same two sides, So that's good.
Speaker 1 (17:02):
Yeah, I would be both you and me between football
and tennis. This is a great run for both of us.
So let's see we can continue it with the divisional
round here. I assume there was no in game todd
to speak of, and go to the bets.
Speaker 5 (17:17):
Yeah, I didn't really do much on the in game
on the wild could I was busy losing money in
college basketball.
Speaker 1 (17:23):
Okay, so what's the story. We do two picks here
again for divisional round. Two picks, yes, yes, two picks. Okay, Drew,
you start, sir, what is your first best?
Speaker 4 (17:34):
Okay, this is tough. These are all pretty good numbers.
I'm gonna I'm gonna go. I'm gonna stick stick with
what got me here. Two weeks in a row, I've
gone him backing the Texans, and I still am surprised
that the market is not correctly adjusting for what is
(17:55):
the best defense playing right now and across all the
football and in a new setting. There is certainly a
lot to be said about the fact that Mahomes is
on the other sideline. Andy Reid has had an extra
week to prepare for you, and in general, the Chiefs
are healthy at home obviously, But over the balance of
the season, I think we've learned a couple important things
(18:15):
about the Chiefs. They don't have any tackles, they are
susceptible to pass rush, particularly quick pressures around the edge,
and Pad Mahomes, for whatever reason, has regressed in terms
of his ability to be the magician that never gets sacked.
He has taken a lot more sacks this year and
has been a lot less effective as a scrambler for
reasons unknown. But I think a lot of it has
(18:38):
to do with the quality of the tackle play that
they've had throughout the balance of the season, and I
think Houston is definitely capable of continuing their brilliance in
terms of pass rush and quick pressure. On top of that,
Mahomes and this just the schematic kind of identity of
the Chiefs this year has been a lot more vertical passing.
They are trying to push the ball further downfield, and
(19:00):
while they do have the weapons certainly to create separation
and win at the point of point of the catch.
This is the most outstanding cornerback unit that they've come
up against. And these guys are playing with confidence and
they are literally keen on a couple of key takeaways
per game, and I think, really if they can create
some turnovers and generate some pressure, I think the Texans
(19:22):
are alive to be the spoiler this week, but the
fact that they're getting eight points is really I think
a bridge too far. My fear for this one is seven,
and actually consensus says eight and a half, So I'll
take eight and a half. And I think ultimately like
the Texans offense is just a brutal, brutal entity. It
(19:45):
is not fun to watch. It is not well schemed,
it's not well structured, and Bobby Slowic sequencing is appalling.
The running is extremely predictable, and the interior pass the
interior of the offensive line needs to be completely replaced
if they're going to be a functional offense next year.
And they're up against Chris Jones, who can be a
complete game wrecker. So I get it that it's going
(20:08):
to be a little bit of a fragile situation. If
Houston can have a couple of clean drives and generate
I mean, the Chiefs can have a couple clean drives
and generate a lead. But I do think one of
the other kind of Achilles heels we've seen throughout the
season for this Chiefs defense is their ability to defend
elite wide receivers and Nico Collins is that guy right now,
and so fingers crossed, he gets like fifteen targets in
(20:30):
this game. I think the fact that CJ. Stroud was
consistently under pressure up the middle against the Chargers and
comported himself effectively is a positive sign. The fact that
he was kind of back to doing his magical stuff
at third and a million is a positive sign. And
I think the Texans are alive to be a little
bit of a fly annointment of what otherwise looks to
(20:50):
be a pretty predictable championship game weekend.
Speaker 2 (20:54):
So Texans plus nine is your pick.
Speaker 4 (21:00):
Eight and a half, which I think is consensus right now.
Speaker 2 (21:03):
I was gonna give you a nine.
Speaker 4 (21:04):
Zirka has eight. The only nine out there is is
pretty is pretty expensive. I'll take a flat eight and
a half.
Speaker 2 (21:13):
Okay, So Texans plus eight and a half for Drew.
Speaker 1 (21:16):
Let me ask you this question, Drew, I too was
on the Texans mine last week. I cited the Chargers
strength of victory. Their paltry three forty eight strength of
victory made three forty eight by their two wins over
the Broncos. They don't have those, it's even more anemic.
But I just want to ask this, there's no way
to know the answer, but I'm always curious about you
(21:36):
guys view stuff like this. So we won that bet.
They end up winning by twenty points. It ends up
not being a sweat at all.
Speaker 2 (21:44):
But if CJ.
Speaker 1 (21:46):
Stroud doesn't complete at third and sixteen from their own
seventeen where the snap goes past him, he collects the
ball flushed out to the right, find Xavier Hutchinson down
the middle for thirty four yards. If that doesn't happen,
do you believe we win that bet?
Speaker 4 (22:03):
In the uh? Maybe right before that play, I think
I was texting with Andy and I was like, I can't, Like,
I really hope they get some points on this track
so I can get the heck off this. But but no,
(22:23):
But the fact that they that he completed those third
and forever like miracle stuff, and the fact that they
were finally targeting Nico, I was like, oh, I was like,
I was like I was waiting to see this, like
thank you, like finally, and and stayed well, I was
waiting for halftime. They got three more points at halftime,
and then I was like, well, now it doesn't actually
now the price doesn't even make sense.
Speaker 1 (22:43):
To get off.
Speaker 4 (22:44):
So I'm just gonna ride this and see if they
can can put it away. And ultimately, the you know,
the defense was able to come up with points themselves
to seal it. And you know, again like there's there's certainly,
you know, Pat Mahlomes is the boogeyman, Like I know this,
Like I'm not an idiot. I'm on against him in
this spot in playoffs past and then been regretful and uh,
(23:07):
you know, certainly the fact that he plays with so
much confidence because he's been here so many times and
it's just completely unflapped, unflappable in the playoff setting is
not lost on me. But yeah, there's there's a world
where you know, people like, oh, that's the Pat Mahomes
I saw in the Super Bowl against the Buccaneers who
was running for his life and you know this was
you know, trying to play catch up. And you know,
(23:28):
I like that as part of the kind of distribution
of potential outcomes for this game as opposed to you know,
a game where the Texans just are a no show.
Speaker 1 (23:38):
Yeah, I just I just always find that that being
fascinating out football. This doesn't apply for basketball. It doesn't
necessarily apply for baseball either. Football is one of these
things where it's like, look, we won by twenty we
had the dog, easy, peasy, but like if that one
thing doesn't happen in the certain quarter, yeah, you.
Speaker 4 (23:53):
Know, like if you bet, if you bet the Eagles,
you need to do some soul searching if you feel
like that was a comfortable one.
Speaker 5 (23:59):
Yeah, and an NFL it happens more than in college football.
I feel like like one play in the NFL can
be the whole game, whereas in college the kind of
cream rises the top. It seems like they're it's not
just down to one play typically, But I don't know anyways.
Speaker 1 (24:15):
I'm just saying, as as better as we don't necessarily
acknowledge that all the time, right, cool.
Speaker 2 (24:22):
I acknowledge that.
Speaker 5 (24:23):
I was very happy that Baker Mayfield. I kept texting
you guys saying, when is Baker Mayfield going to have
a brain fart like he always does, and it's got
to come here sooner or later.
Speaker 2 (24:32):
And then he finally did one, and it was like, thankful.
Speaker 1 (24:36):
Since you bring this up. I wasn't going to bring
this up, but Will knows where I'm going where I'm
going with this, so We're on a group Textsikk, Me,
Will and Todd. So this is the first playoff game
as a Washington fan, right, I've had in years. I
haven't won one in nineteen years. Todd will not stop
walking texting the whole time. It's not as simple as
(24:57):
putting the phone away, because every time it I'm like,
what happened? Oh, something was about to happen, and I'm
just like, Todd, shut up.
Speaker 2 (25:05):
I was being rather negative. I'll be honest.
Speaker 5 (25:08):
I was being rather negative because I didn't like my
Washington bed and every person get into five yard one
can't get a score, and and then I stopped, and
then I was much more positive after that. But because
it was your first playoff game since, you know, back
before the Barry Bonds and Joe Gibbs administration. So uh, anyways,
(25:28):
we pulled it out. But I did text in the
middle there where is when is Baker Mayfield going to
make a Baker Mayfield brain fart?
Speaker 3 (25:35):
And and he texted a lot of things, So I mean,
you could have filled a lot of playing with anything there.
If there was a referee for our group chat, If
there was a referee our group chat, you would have
fouled out multiple times?
Speaker 5 (25:46):
Was it not right that Mike Evans throws the guy
downy track of anything?
Speaker 3 (25:51):
And I was rooting for I had Washington too, I'm
rooting for Gilly. I'm kind of living vicariously through Gilly.
Of like, man, the excitement of is the stress of
this thing. It's tought everything, man, I can't I can't
believe that plan.
Speaker 6 (26:01):
Chris FeliCa.
Speaker 5 (26:03):
That was a legitimate pass interference. Mike Evans literally knife
the guy at gunpoint. He stabbed him with the machete
while holding on eighteen forty and then what with a
penalty a lot of more.
Speaker 2 (26:16):
Give me a break, Chris, that was not a legitimate penalty.
I'm sorry.
Speaker 1 (26:20):
I'm sorry.
Speaker 5 (26:21):
Your best bets, my best bet is going to be unfortunately.
Speaker 2 (26:27):
What do you have for the Lions game? Nine and
a half? Yeah?
Speaker 4 (26:34):
And a half.
Speaker 7 (26:37):
I'm gonna lay nine and a half with Dan Campbell
minus the nine and a half, and I'll tell you
why there's a guy down in Pittsburgh almost I had
a heart attack with that Redskins team last week.
Speaker 5 (26:51):
We're gonna kick the crap out of those boys. I
think if you have problems in the red zone, against
the Lions. It's curtains, baby, because the lies. Look the commanders,
I know Gilly likes to make excuses for his commander's defense.
The commander's defense is not good, okay, and the whole
game I'm holding on with dear life. Please, can somebody
(27:13):
stop Mike Evans from running wide open down the middle
of the field or that auton guy. Look, the commanders
did a great job, you know, duct taping that defense together,
but now you're going against the juggernaut of juggernaut offenses inside.
There's no weather inside. Jared Goff is gonna pick these
(27:34):
boys apart. They're gonna run for a mile. That guy
Bucky Irving is still running on some of these run plays.
I don't even know where the Redskins defense was at all.
They literally were. And what's funny is because there's so
few possessions in that game, there was barely any stops
in the whole game. If you think about it. You know,
Mayfield stopped himself on that fumble, and then they stopped
themselves on that third and one with the stupid handoff.
(27:56):
I just don't see the commander's defense being able to
slow the Lions down. And if the If, the If,
the Skins who. By the way, I love this team.
I even bet them to win the Super Bowl at
like twenty two. Well, I love Daniels. I think he's
gonna be amazing. I just think they're they're a great
story and they're gonna you're gonna hear from this team
in the future. But now you're asking them to go
(28:19):
on the road against a juggernaut offense that is going
to not be stopped. So now you have to score
with them. Well, there's not gonna be anything bullshit about it.
Well we got inside the ten eight hundred times and
we didn't get it in. Well, you better get it
in because if you don't get it in, you're gonna
get blown out. And I think that's what's gonna happen.
I think the luck is finally where the fortunateivity. While
(28:40):
was I don't agree with Adam Turnoff that they're the
most lucky team in the history of the NFL, I
do think they've been quite fortunate this year. I don't
see it. Lions minus nine and a half this week.
I think it's I think the storybooks coming to an end.
Speaker 1 (28:54):
I have said all year. I have said all year,
they are a playoff team that could maximum win one player.
So nothing about that.
Speaker 4 (29:03):
No, uh no, no concern that the Washington franchise owns
the lines in the playoffs. Three now in the history
of the Grave franchise. Yes, Wayne Fawns, I remember the
NFC championship game in nineteen ninety two. That was a
spectacular forty one absolute thumping. Yes, Mark on the.
Speaker 3 (29:28):
Side, I thought, Darryl same age. That's about when I
start like I watched football those years. But I think
ninety three ninety four, like those Bill's Cowboys, is probably
my first memory. I don't remember, like that's right at
the cutoff of like that's a game.
Speaker 1 (29:42):
I just don't remember.
Speaker 3 (29:43):
How old are you?
Speaker 4 (29:43):
Drew?
Speaker 5 (29:44):
That was?
Speaker 1 (29:45):
That was Aaron Shotts's greatest football team of all time,
the nineteen Washington I.
Speaker 5 (29:50):
Remember I heard Barry Bonds running the ball and throwing.
Speaker 4 (29:56):
They washed ever to that season before they took a loss,
that we were we were talking. You know, they knew
those guys were gods. In my elementary school classroom. We
were talking about in an undefeated season and then the
Cowboys punked them, but they still and it was awesome.
Speaker 1 (30:12):
Levin to know what I want to say, And Michael
Irvin kept posting up Darryl Green and Cowboys beat him.
Greatest team of all time, Toddy his team of all time?
Mark Ripping? How many times were you just sacked all year?
Good trivia question? Anyone? Vin?
Speaker 4 (30:28):
Seven? Was it seven?
Speaker 1 (30:31):
Seven?
Speaker 4 (30:31):
All right?
Speaker 2 (30:32):
I thought Bonds was the quarterback that year, not Ripping.
But anyways, Willie, what's your pick?
Speaker 3 (30:38):
I'll go pretty quickly here. I don't have a ton
that I love, as you guys kind of mentioned, as
Drew mentioned, I will go under forty one and a
half Texans chief I do believe that's the consensus number.
I just think the Chiefs are getting healthier on defense.
Watson back is going to be something that matters the defense.
With and without him, there's a big difference there. I
(30:59):
think that he Houston is legitimately good on defense and outdoors.
A Houston team, you know, with a shaky offense playing
cold weather on the road. I just look at like
a twenty four to seventeen type of game. There's not
a ton of wiggle room. But I just think Kansas
City healthier defensively. Houston really good defensively, Kansas City not
(31:19):
as explosive as in years past, you know, as we've learned.
So I will go under forty one and a half here.
Speaker 1 (31:27):
I have made two bets, which is convenient that we
have two plays here. I have exactly that many bets.
I am on the Los Angles Rams plus six versus
the Philadelphia Eagles. This is the one where Fezik and
I disagree on vehementley. I couldn't believe that a full six.
(31:47):
It was a violent disagreement. In the words of Michael Lombardi,
it was a violent disagreement. I violently disagree with you, Gil,
I'm like violently.
Speaker 2 (31:58):
H Speaking of which is that guy went to eight
thousand kids.
Speaker 6 (32:01):
Is he in the Hall of Fame yet?
Speaker 2 (32:02):
Philip Rivers?
Speaker 1 (32:05):
No, not yet, it's not eligible.
Speaker 2 (32:07):
There was a guy who got.
Speaker 5 (32:09):
Very upset when I was on ANG and said, I
don't think Philip Rivers is a Hall of Famer. And
he told me and I said, I don't want to
live in a world where Philip Rivers is a Hall
of Famer.
Speaker 2 (32:18):
He got very upset with me.
Speaker 1 (32:21):
Think I get the argument against the Rams people who
love Philly, but that the Rams again they're going to
be in cold weather. Everything that's going back going on
back in LA with the Wildfires. It's one thing to
play a de facto home game in Arizona. It's another
thing to go three thousand miles to play at Philly.
But I think the Rams are that team. I've always said,
(32:42):
besides the usual suspects this year, besides the Ravens, Bills,
Chiefs in the AFC, besides the Lions and Eagles in
the NFC, that the Rams are the sneaky, freaky team here,
that they are built in a way that fits the
profile of past Super Bowl champions. I'm not saying they're
winning the Super Bowl. I'm saying, of all the other teams,
they have a Hall of Fame quarterback, have a good
(33:02):
running game, they have a great pass rush. There's a
lot to love about this team. And I'm sorry that
Puka Nakua is exactly the kind of wide receiver I
want out there against the Eagles in that environment. Tough
player the Eagles. A lot of people are dismissing that
Eagles performance last week as well. Listen, Jared Jalen Hurts
from the concussion didn't really get the reps. That was
(33:26):
a really listless performance. I'm not so quick to dismiss it.
You're giving me six points. I will happily take the sick.
Rams are right first, Drew Ski, your number two are
we OPO.
Speaker 4 (33:38):
We're APO, And yeah, I took the best defense in
the AFC catching points in the first one, and I'm
going to back the best defense in the NFC laying
points in the second of my two picks, and it
is the Philadelphia Eagles. And this is not really to
take away any of your argument there, but I will
say that there is a big picking sides at this
(34:00):
stage is flipping coins. These are very very well understood markets,
and I'm literally keying on what I think is a
pretty aggressive step up in terms of style of defense
that the Rams were preparing for last week compared to
what they're going to see with the Eagles. In general,
I look at an Eagles defense that you know, what
(34:21):
vic Fangio has done to really kind of coach up
the young guys is spectacular. I think he has done
the best coordinating job of anyone this year. We can
point to Ben Johnson, but he's working with so many
weapons it's almost an embarrassment of riches. Vic Fangio is
employing a really complex defense that kind of takes away
what Sean McVay does the best, I think, and the
(34:41):
fact that they can generate pressure with their front four
pretty consistently is just kind of the huge element here.
The Eagles really don't have to blitz much to generate pressure,
and the Eagles were able to contain this running attack
extremely effectively. The first time these team played, Karen Williams,
every time he touched the ball was a minus in
that head to head, And I think that just in general,
(35:03):
the Eagles defense is going to be the standout unit here.
With the support of the home crowd and the travel
issues for the Rams, the early kickoff for the Rams,
the short week for the Rams, and in general, like
there was a couple of guys get that got banged
up pretty quietly in that game for the Rams offense,
that I think is kind of good. You know, everybody's
playing hurt this time of year. I know that, but
you know, if they are step slow, and if the
(35:25):
Eagles defenses, you know, comes in, comes in and performs
to their baseline. I think the Rams are going to
have a tough time getting into the twenties here. And
while I do not love going to war with Jalen Hurts,
he is not my guy. I do think that last
week a lot of his issues were related to the rust.
He missed almost twenty days of practice, and you know,
(35:45):
it felt like in a lot of ways they didn't
really know what they were going to get from him
where they coordinated the game. And I think with a
full week of normal practice and kind of lessons learned
from the tape against the Packers, you're going to get
a little bit more. You know, it's cleaner offensive performance
here from the from the Eagles. And on top of that,
like the Rams defense was awesome last week, and Todd
(36:09):
brought it up that they've been on a little bit
of a heater. They do one thing well and that
is generated interior quick pressure, and the Eagles have the
perfect counter to that, which is the best interior offensive
line of football. And I think that in general, if
you are not getting quick pressure against Jalen Hurts and
AJ Brown and DeVante Smith, are you know, be able
(36:29):
to create separation against a cornerback unit that is bottom half,
if not bottom ten in the NFL, then I think
the passing game is going to look a lot cleaner here. Similarly,
the screen game with Saquon Barkley is going to be
very difficult for the Rams to have, you know, just
perfect tackling against and and yeah, I'm just in general
(36:51):
seeing a pretty balanced attack here for the Eagles against
a Rams team that's going to be stuck in mud,
against a better defensive styling that kind of is hand
in glove to stop them. So Eagles minus six for me.
And yeah, it's painful because the biggest win of my
life was Rams Super Bowl in twenty twenty one and uh,
(37:13):
Cooper Cup getting that m VP and h it, I don't,
I don't, I'm not seeing it this year. They needed
like the Rams could win the Super Bowl this year,
but they needed the Packers to play a better game.
They just needed Packers to play a cleaner game and
get it right, get knocked the knock the Eagles out,
and then the Rams are are on their way to
New Orleans. And I think this is the one opponent
(37:34):
that they match up poorly against.
Speaker 1 (37:37):
Well when you put it that, no, I'm Drew and
they okay, Todd, because we got to go Will out
of here. So let's uh, let's race through. What's you're saying.
Speaker 2 (37:50):
I'm going to go under in that same game. I
think that the Rams defense has really been playing well.
Speaker 5 (37:56):
We've already talked about that. I think the Eagles defense
is elle illegally. I think we're I mean their defense,
granted they played horribone offense, but their defense was outstanding.
I thought, you know, the Green Bay everyone's down on
them because the last week's the season, But there was
a couple of weeks there they were just mowing people
down with their offense, and you couldn't stop their run game.
(38:17):
You couldn't stop anything they were doing. The Eagles made
it look easy defensively, so I think they're going to
hold the Rams down. I think the Rams can hold
the Eagles down.
Speaker 6 (38:25):
Again.
Speaker 5 (38:26):
We don't think the Eagles are clicking one hundred percent
on offense, so under forty four to me looks good.
I'll take under forty four in that Eagles game.
Speaker 1 (38:35):
Wilson Hillson, I'm.
Speaker 3 (38:38):
Going to go Ravens Bills. We have one and a
half here, Ravens Lane. Yep, I'm gonna go with the Ravens.
They played in Week four, Baltimore won convincingly by twenty
five points, eight yards per play to four yards per play,
and I just think Baltimore is better, and I think
they're bigger. I think Buffalo is really small in the
defensive line, and again, Henry, that's bad news. So I
(39:01):
just think Baltimore is better than Buffalo by more than
the gap of home field advantage, whatever that's worth. I
do have some concern about Tucker. It's something we talked about,
like every week he's missing kicks. He's missing multiple kicks.
That's quietly flowing under the radar because they're winning blowout
and you know, they scored all touchdowns last week and
scrimmage against the Browns a couple of weeks ago, it
was all touchdown. It was all touchdowns, no.
Speaker 2 (39:22):
Field goals, no clutch field goals.
Speaker 3 (39:24):
I do worry if he has to sink like a
forty eight yard or with thirty seconds left, is that
going to go you know, wide left or something that
That is in the back of my head. But I
just think Baltimore is the better team here. I am
going to go with Baltimore mightus the point and a half.
Speaker 1 (39:36):
By the way, it's a point, not a point A
point here we go. I messed that up. I'm with you.
Aimore's yeah, Baltimore is my pick as well. I've had
them as number one for maybe six seven weeks. Now
I think the best team in football. I've got Lamar
Jackson MVP. None of this means I hate the Bills
(39:56):
or Josh Allen. I know Bills fans think I do.
I think Baltimore is just the best team in football.
I think they're the most balanced team in football. I
think this is their year where they win it all,
and I think it starts with this one. And I
think you know people are gonna still give Lamar Jackson
a stigma. Oh he can't win the big playups. Well,
you know that's the case until he does. And I
(40:17):
think this is the time he does. And Derrick Henry
is the ultimate counterpart against Buffalo. Buffalo is for most.
Speaker 2 (40:25):
Of the year.
Speaker 1 (40:25):
And I know they're getting guys back here that they
didn't have the first time they played when Baltimore crushed them.
But generally speaking, this year, Buffalo has been a team
that has bent a lot and not broken. I think
they get broken here and I think Baltimore wins it.
Minus went by the way, I guess minus two and
a half on guessing lines. You know, the night before
when these came out and even into Monday morning, the
(40:48):
Bills were still favored. I couldn't believe it. It has
come not completely my way, but most of the way,
or at least halfway to me. I mean, I think
it's more. I think it's great. Baltimore's better team.
Speaker 2 (41:00):
Yeah, go ahead, go ahead.
Speaker 4 (41:02):
I think two. Yeah, I think two and a half
is going to be your open. If it's a case
next week, that seems right to me. So you're on
the right train.
Speaker 1 (41:11):
I need to ask in favor of Baltimore, Okay, just making.
Speaker 4 (41:16):
Sure Baltimore minus two and a half at Casey next
week is my fair at least I would be surprised
if and if they if they beat Buffalo in the spot,
they'll get upgraded again. So yeah, two and a half,
maybe even three, maybe closes three. The other question is
what what's your degree of confidence right now in Lamar
Jackson m VP.
Speaker 1 (41:37):
Oh, that it actually manifests better than fifty percent. I'm
going to go sixty percent. I feel confident you.
Speaker 4 (41:49):
I think actually, I think it's I think it's done.
Really the ap all pro vote was was really was
really surprising. It's just totally there's going to be there's
going to be a lot of ballots that are Lamar
Burrow Hellen, and there's going to be If there's five
of those, then it's going to go Lamar.
Speaker 2 (42:10):
Killy.
Speaker 5 (42:10):
Are you concerned about the fact that the Ravens defense,
which was crappy early in the years, has like kind
of looked They've looked better than they really are playing
these five games, their last five games, Giants, Steelers, Houston,
Cleveland Steelers, none of those teams with an NFL offense,
(42:31):
and that's made their defense look better than it actually is,
and maybe their defense is still the crapola that we
saw early in the year.
Speaker 2 (42:38):
Are you concerned about that?
Speaker 1 (42:41):
Yeah, I mean there's certainly competition matters, for sure, but
I think in the end, who's more likely to stop who?
I mean, this could be one of these games where
you just got to hold Serve a couple times, or
you've got to break Serve a couple times. I'm way
more confident in Baltimore being able to do that against
Buffalo than I am Buffalo being able to do that
against Baltimore better.
Speaker 4 (43:01):
I would also point out that, you know, what you're
pointing to lately is a reflection of they haven't played
any good quarterbacks and that their pass defense looked better.
The run defense for the Baltimore Ravens has been all
the worldly, elite all year, right, And if you look
at what Buffalo is doing to generate success, it's they're
staying on schedule. Their running attack is super is really
really helping the offense broadly. And if that if you
(43:24):
take that away and they have to just beat you know,
Josh Allen, you know he can beat you through the air,
but these weapons really that scary. This the passing game
for the Bills really that scary, not not not in
my opinion. So it was I think that matchup comes
down to Ravens run d versus Buffalo run offense.
Speaker 1 (43:43):
When Curtis Samuel scored for Buffalo, who's doing that game?
I can't remember what they were just gushing over Curtis Samuel.
I'm like, really, is that what we're doing now? Or
like I think it is. Samuel is awesome. That was
the Romo game.
Speaker 5 (43:59):
Made the catch of the century in the back of
the end zone for the Bills. That guy I don't
even know how he caught it and kept his knee
and bounds and everything.
Speaker 1 (44:06):
That was that was incredible. All right, Teaser of the
week is at current at current lines, these are the
week Drew would be.
Speaker 4 (44:19):
It's going to be Detroit Buffalo for me. I'm gonna
tickle three and a half here with the Lino's and
I'm going to take Buffalo out to eight. I'm sorry,
buffal out to seven. The terrible, terrible teaser, terrible teaser.
Speaker 1 (44:38):
Well, we only have a week and choose from here.
Speaker 4 (44:40):
Terrible, terrible, terrible.
Speaker 2 (44:43):
I'm gonna go also with Detroit because I think it's
over for Kill's Washington boys. He even agrees it sounds
like uh, and I'll take the Eagles down to zero.
Speaker 1 (44:55):
I do think this. I don't think they get blown out.
I think they put up a good performance and they
lose by a touchdown.
Speaker 3 (45:00):
Will I'll go Chiefs Bills just because that one, that one,
one and a half, whatever it is with the Bills
is enticing.
Speaker 2 (45:07):
I do think it'll be a close game.
Speaker 3 (45:08):
So Chiefs Bills again, not a ton of options.
Speaker 1 (45:13):
I'm taking the two on what am I doing? I'm
doing the Chiefs and the Lions, Chiefs, Lion.
Speaker 4 (45:21):
I got to advocate if you're going to play a
Chiefs Lions teaser. I think the mat says, you know,
seven point teaser, it's more expensive, but but you get
you get the you get them, you get it back.
Speaker 1 (45:37):
But we are we are beholden to the megapod constitution,
and I even really think we should be asked to
pick a teaser when there's four games, to be fair.
That's true, that's true. Well this will be last week.
Speaker 2 (45:50):
So what do you have? Chiefs minus two and a half?
Speaker 1 (45:52):
And what all right, Chiefs minus two and a half,
and then what lions? What is it three and a half?
Now would be a lion and a half? Yeah, yeah,
all right, the final two questions of this in each
and every megapot, this is actually a good one for
this week, all right, of the big favorites, this is
perfect for this week. So just throw out Baltimore Buffalo
take the other three game, Chiefs against the Texans, Lions
(46:15):
against the Commodores, and the Eagles against the Rams. Who
is the most likely to lose? Out right?
Speaker 4 (46:23):
I think it's the Chiefs, but I have a very
weak opinion of that.
Speaker 1 (46:28):
You've backtracked a little on that this week, haven't you.
Speaker 4 (46:30):
Yeah, everybody and everybody in my circles like, don't be
an idiot, Mahmes, He's gonna make these guys. CJ. Strowd
and this Sexons offense is terrible, and like I am,
you know why I'm in this spot where I'm backing
the Texans in the playoffs and I'm still kind of
stuck on my preseason rating for this team was this
is going to be like a viable AFC championship team,
Like I thought, you know, just looking at the talent
(46:52):
on this team, I was like, these guys are going
to be good.
Speaker 2 (46:55):
CJ.
Speaker 4 (46:55):
Stroud and you're two stepping forward ball And they've lost Digs,
they lost Tank Dell, but they still have a pretty
deep wide receiving corps beyond Nico Collins to the point
where they just cut Deontay Johnson. So you know, I think,
I think, I'm I'm I'm a little stuck on my
preseason prior for them as being being for real and.
Speaker 2 (47:13):
The data line the problem.
Speaker 4 (47:17):
The thing that was weird, Like last year their offensive
line was awful and they were all hurt all year
long and it didn't really matter. Like CJ. Stroud was
kind of protection agnostic and for some reason this year
he's taken a step back. I don't know if they're
asking him to do different stuff or what, But I
also think a lot of the kind of modification of CJ.
Stroud at the end of last year was really just
(47:38):
the emergence of Nico Collins as a wide receiver, one
top five guy in the NFL, and his absence through
the middle of the season, and when he came back,
he wasn't as explosive and now he looks now he
looks explosive to me. So I'm pitting a lot of hope,
hopes and prayers on mister Nico Collins being a difference maker.
Speaker 3 (47:55):
The Vikings, by the way, beat the Texans thirty four
to seven when the Texans were healthy, which will look
very good on a banner up and up.
Speaker 1 (48:05):
Todd most likely to lose out right of those three
big favorites.
Speaker 2 (48:07):
Is I think the Vikings. The Vikings are definitely going
down this week. I don't know about what you guys think.
I'm gonna pick the Vikings and the Indiana Fever.
Speaker 5 (48:19):
Uh No, I'm going to say the biggest team to
lose is going to be Yeah, I'm gonna go with
the I just don't see it. I mean, I guess
I'll pick the Texans, but I don't see it. I
think that I think the team total for Houston is
going to be under Actually, I don't think they're going
to score that. If they're going to win this game,
they're gonna have to win a real ugly one.
Speaker 2 (48:36):
I think.
Speaker 3 (48:38):
Really, Sorry, you said Eagles counts as one. Yes, yeah,
I'll go with the Eagles. Pass rush a quarterback basically,
have a Hall of Fame quarterback, a Hall of Fame coach,
and you got a good pass rush, you got.
Speaker 1 (48:49):
A shot Eagles for all the reasons will state Eagles
most likely to lose out And then you have to
bet a side in three of these, but you get
one game you want no part of what Drew is
the which of these four is the one you would
least like to bet on the.
Speaker 4 (49:03):
Side the it's the It's the Ravens Bills. But it's
because I have a lot of interest in the Ravens
futures wise, and so I'm not trying to double down
at an expensive price right now. The I, like I
said like at the top, this to me is the
(49:23):
de facto Super Bowl. If they beat the Bills on
the road, in this spot. I think the Ravens, I
think they're home.
Speaker 1 (49:31):
Dotty.
Speaker 2 (49:33):
I don't want that Bills game. I don't, I don't,
I don't. I have no idea who's going to win
that game.
Speaker 3 (49:40):
Well, I think the Lions probably roll, but I'd be
very concerned about Jaden Daniels backdoor cover. So, I mean
nine and a half is a lot. Defense isn't good
for Detroit, So you better have some margin if you're
Detroit going into that final drive.
Speaker 1 (49:55):
If that's the scenario, will you and me are sharing
the same brain? I I really think that people think,
you know, people who think it's going to be just
a runout. I'm not one hundred percenture.
Speaker 4 (50:06):
Really, I get teeny tiny comment on that game. If
you're considering taking plus nine and a half points with
the Commanders, can I just implore you to split steak
and take half on money line as well, because what
do you know about these two teams? They're both going
to lean into the volatility of the fourth down.
Speaker 2 (50:21):
Go for it.
Speaker 4 (50:22):
This is going to be a high This is going
to be a big swing win probably to game, whether
you're converting your fourth downs or you're not. And if
the Lion of Lions missed a couple and the Commanders
get a couple like you're not covered nine and a half,
you're winning. And I think ultimately that I think that
there's probably no better example of this that we've had
(50:43):
all year. I don't think there's two coaches that I
would say are more inclined to lean into aggressive, you know,
fourth down decision making. So this is gonna be a
cool game.
Speaker 1 (50:52):
Will's got to run, so we got to run. Will's
got other things to do. It's very busy man. Thank
you Drew for everything. Tennis and football both appreciate it.
Good Luck, Todd wishnev again t wish Will Hill at
not the Will Hill to E's on the V and
Drew Dinsig at Whale underscore Capper. I'm at beating the book.
Of course, you might be watching it through that. That's
(51:13):
why I say, of course, thanks for watching. Good luck
with all your bets in the divisional round of the
National Football League player, thanks for watching.
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