Beating The Book: Super Bowl LIX MegaPod Props Edition Betting Preview

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:03):
Check it out man super Bowl fifty nine megapod that
was called the Super Bowl Licks. Hail Alexander, thank you
for tuning in on Twitter Live. Everybody on the retweet
let's see you do. Let people know we're on Otherwise
following Vson, they won't know what a Vson account there

(00:26):
it is, and retweet that bad boy. All right, We're
good to go. As always guests of the show, for
our final podcast of the h of the football season.
It's always a little sad, always a little melanchol. From
his mom's cork attic in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. The star of

(00:46):
Showtimes docuseries Action Odd wish nev what's happening?

Speaker 2 (00:52):
Hey? How are you?

Speaker 1 (00:57):
Will hill at not the Will hill the so the
should have been more podcasts and of course uh also
a part of a bear bets. Chris Belicas Fox podcast
Empire was adding Will good, Hi.

Speaker 3 (01:09):
How are you are we all? Are we all doing
the melancholy thing? Are we all gonna?

Speaker 1 (01:13):
Todd wisham he uh? And our guest who has been
our guest. I actually have megapod historical stats, but he is.
This is kind of his week because he made his Hey,
he made his fame, he rose to prominence, he became
the man that he became because of the Super Super
Bowl prop betting. Rufus Peabody half of the Massive Peabody

(01:35):
Analytics team.

Speaker 2 (01:37):
Uh.

Speaker 1 (01:37):
He's also half of the Bet the Process podcasts he
does with Jeff ma uh. And he's also co founder
of Unabated along with Captain Jack and others. And Rufus
at some point in this podcast, maybe like five ten
minutes from now, is gonna have to duck out because
he's gonna have to go to the bath So just
let you know.

Speaker 2 (01:55):
He's also he's also on the Michael Lewis.

Speaker 1 (01:59):
Right now, hold on, Oh, he might have to go
to the bathroom. Right, he might have to go to
the bathroom. Right now. It's a good way to start
this one. Yes, let's Rufus goes to the bathroom. We'll
talk about this for a second. So Michael Lewis, the
author of You Got to Run.

Speaker 4 (02:13):
I'll be back in five minutes.

Speaker 1 (02:15):
Do it. We'll talk about you while you're going. Ruf
has got to go.

Speaker 2 (02:18):
The bath I want to why don't wait, Why don't
we wait until he comes back? Because I want to
hear what he has to say about this.

Speaker 1 (02:25):
Oh, no, we will, we will schedule he he schedules
his bathroom breaks. That's how I knew he had to
go to the bathroom. Uh, no, we can talk about
it before because no, I am kidding, Yes, I am kidding.
A live shot of Rufus trying to figure out how
to get to the bathroom. So here's the deal. So

(02:45):
rufe is an addition to what I just talked about. Yes,
he is pretty much the focal point of Michael Lewis's
podcast series, season five of Against the Rules, which is
about sports betting. Michael Lewis the author of Money All, famously,
The blind Side, The Big Short, other Wall Street related books.
Probably my favorite author. I'm guessing your favorite author too, Todd,

(03:07):
so many people's favorite. But rufus Is is fantastic in this,
his role in this, and Michael Lewis does a great
job of sort of couching Rufus's place in the in
the betting ecosystem. And I'll say this without Rufus here

(03:27):
because and Rufus doesn't need to hear it again because
he was just on a numbers game on the radio
side yesterday and we went through this. But essentially For
those who are unfamiliar with Rufus, Rufus was a He
grew up in the DC area like I did. He
grew up in northern Virginia, went to T. C. Williams
High School. Remember the Titans, you remember from that movie.
That's the high school. He then went to Yale as

(03:50):
part as part of his thesis.

Speaker 3 (03:51):
He did.

Speaker 1 (03:52):
The Inefficiencies in the Baseball Betting market was his thesis
at Yale. He read an article in I want to
say it was in Sports Illustrated gen World Houski about
Las Vegas Sports Consultants, which Roxy Roxboro founded and was
about to sell, and he started, you know, he learned
of this place for the first time in his life.
Las Vegas Sports Consultants, by this time were responsible for

(04:12):
all the lines that were generated in Vegas. Rufus was
fascinated by it. He tried to get an internship there.
At first it didn't work. Then he pestered them and
he got one and he started. You know, he spent
the summer working there and learning that side of the business.
And he was exposed to all this new stuff. I mean,
imagine a Yale guy doing this, right, Choosing to spend

(04:34):
his summer in the in the heat of Las Vegas,
because he was so fascinated by betting markets and the
Super Bowl where the Cardinals played the Steelers. And by
the way, part of this is recounted in the Michael
Lewis podcast. But that Super Bowl, the famous one more
Santonio Holmes did the toe tap and the Steelers won.
He he was really over leveraged. He borrowed money, he

(04:57):
was getting free rolled by others. But he he basically
used his models while working at Las Vegas Sports Intelton's.
He basically used his models to try to bet that
Super Bowl, and pretty much it was the props. And
one of the things was Gary russell first touchdown score
and his number said that it was a far more

(05:17):
likely outcome than what the betting odds suggested. So that
triggered a bet, and there was any number of them,
and I don't know if that he missed a bet
in that particular Super Bowl. And so he ended up
from an ROI perspective to this day, from an ROI perspective,
probably having his most profitable super Bowl of all time.
It's not the most money he's made, but from an
ROI perspective, it was the greatest ever. But essentially that's

(05:37):
where this journey for him first started. He ended up
being a subject of a Washington Post article about him
killing Super Bowl props, and for years and years and years,
the history of Super Bowl props was the Westgate was
the first one to open. It was a Tuesday night.
Everybody would line up. You could make three bets a
max amount of money, and then you had to go

(05:58):
to the back of the line and make bets again.
And the way this has evolved super Bowl props, by
the way, which began historically during Super Bowl twenty the
run up to Super Bowl twenty, when art man Terras
at Caesar's put up a prop on William the Refrigerator
Perry to score a touchdown in Super Bowl twenty. It
started out at forty to one. He couldn't get much
action because the Bears were big favorites against the Patriots,

(06:19):
so he came up with this prop idea. Betters betted
down from forty to one down a five to one,
and famously, William the Refrigerator Perry scored a touchdown. He
had been inserted in the backfield for the Bears often
that year in the Bear's Magical run to the Super
Bowl title, and in fact, William Refrigerator Perry scored in
the Super Bowl. Mike Ditka later said it was one

(06:40):
of the big regrets of his career because he wished
in retrospect that Walter Payton had scored a touchdown. Walter
Payton was sort of in the twilight of this long career,
finally got to a super Bowl and didn't get in
the end zone, but the Fridge did. So That's how
super Bowl prop started. I told Rufus, I just told
the story again about the Super Bowl between the Steelers
and the Cardinals, how it started for you, the Washington

(07:01):
Post article, and sort of the rest is history, where
now we have instead of that night at the West Gate.
By the time the NFC a AFC Championship games are
these books like DraftKings and Bandal have all these props
just ready to go, at least the formulae. The Rufous
end player rufles have the bathroom break out but is successful.

Speaker 4 (07:24):
Successful, very good, I hear it.

Speaker 1 (07:28):
Let me just before we get to Rufus's take on
the because I know Tod wants to ask about Michael
Lewis thing. Just a few Megapod historical stats. Since this
is our last football Megapod of the year, from Megapod
historian Tim Lawton, the host of the Better Life podcast,
Tim Lawson with some historical Megapod stats and Todd I

(07:49):
was shocked by some of this that related to you.
The NFL Megapod officially began this podcast This Megapod or
a full season on the Betting Dork Feed in twenty eleven. However,
there were a handful of episodes produced before that twenty
eleven season, featuring guests like Las Vegas, Chris ed Fang,
and Joe Fortenbaugh. Megapod did not have a Thanksgiving week

(08:10):
episode until twenty nineteen, which was also the first year
that Marco and VR did not co host. Palm and
Parlay co hosted. In twenty nineteen, the first five seasons
did not have an episode for the final week of
the regular season. This is Rufus's today fifteenth appearance on
the Edit on Megapod. Fifteenth is sixth in the postseason.

(08:31):
Rufus has the third most appearances for megapod preview shows
preview shows. He's only behind Fortinbaugh with nineteen and Brady
Cannon with seventeen. I'm coming for in Vo, You're coming
for it. Marco and VR co hosted one hundred and
forty two episodes. Todd has now co hosted Are You

(08:51):
Ready for This? One hundred and thirty? He's only twelve
behind Wow. Seven years from Marko and VR. Six with you, Todd?
You did sixty six with Palm, twenty two with Arla,
forty four with Will Hill.

Speaker 4 (09:06):
But how do you feel about being in the close
to the company of luminaries like Vegas, Runner and Marco D'Angelo.

Speaker 2 (09:15):
Well, you know, when you get to be in such
incredible company, it's you know, it's really it's like when
you get a statue out in front of my mom's
cork attic. It's a big deal.

Speaker 3 (09:28):
What were you saying? Rufus went out for a minute.
You were saying, you were talking some shit about the oils.
You want to say that to his face, please?

Speaker 1 (09:34):
I won't.

Speaker 3 (09:34):
When a playoff series got swept last year, got swept
this year, why don't you Why don't you continue what
you were saying?

Speaker 2 (09:40):
Todd?

Speaker 1 (09:40):
Wait last thing, Let me let me finish my bid here,
Doctor Bob longest active streak, longest active streak, Regular season Pods,
Doctor Bob eight, Drew Dinsik longest active streak post season
with five Meltzer longest active overall streak with fourteen lifestyle appearances,
and uh, that's it. There you go, Todd's small gap
with Marko and vrs P because of the shorter seasons

(10:01):
they had and the lack of Thanksgiving episode. There you go,
all right, rufus, Uh Todd, you want to ask about
Michael stopped hitting?

Speaker 2 (10:09):
And then if we're going to talk about the Baltimore ourial,
I don't know how they stopped hitting. Those guys were
crushing the ball every single day and then all of
a sudden, they just stopped hitting. It was so sad
because I was so hyped for that team except for
that left field. I don't like that left field deal.
You crushed the ball?

Speaker 4 (10:27):
Are they're they're kind of doing a happy medium?

Speaker 1 (10:31):
Oh okay, they realized.

Speaker 4 (10:33):
It turns out they realized that maybe it wasn't actually
that good for their hitters. And yeah, I think the
whole point was they were going to build a team
and around having like better outfield defense, and and it
turns out like guys like Brian Mountcastle kind of needed
like got cost a bunch of homers right right, and

(10:55):
then and then it got in their heads and then
they started like stopped hitting, like stop being able to hit,
even on the road.

Speaker 2 (11:01):
It's just aggravating watching the game and watching a guy
blast the ball like the deep left and then this
guy just comes over and camps under it at the
three eighty six mark. You know, it's like, come on,
that was a home run. You know, I didn't like
when they moved.

Speaker 1 (11:14):
That back, Todd, what did you want to ask Rufus
about the Michael Lewis pott.

Speaker 2 (11:18):
I listened to some of the Michael Lewis stuff, and
Michael Lewis is my favorite author. I just was wondering,
what was, what's what's he like in real life? And
you know what was the experience it does? Is he
pretty much how he comes across in like podcast things
and stuff, like he seems a nice guy.

Speaker 4 (11:36):
He's a really nice guy, and you can kind of
see like I had I've had the privilege of having
like dinner a few times with him this year and
like getting to talk with him quite a lot and
kind of about the industry and just about life, and
he's you can just see how his brain works. He's

(11:57):
such a curious person and he just kind of dives in.
He he wants to like understand someone and make what
makes them tick and just what makes them sort of unique.
And you can kind of see him thinking about a
little story in his head and he just kind of
I don't know, it's it's it's so cool.

Speaker 2 (12:12):
I really can't think of any people that I want
to meet except Michael Lewis. I think there's like no
people if you said to me, who would you want
to meet and have dinner with? You know, I can't
think of anyone I would want to except for Michael
Lewis because I've never.

Speaker 3 (12:26):
Met you in real life. That not even Will Hill.

Speaker 2 (12:28):
Yeah, yeah, well Will. I have problems with him just
from a you know, you want.

Speaker 1 (12:34):
To you want to you want to meet Michael Lewis
more than you want to meet John frenchie Fuqua. Are
you sure about that? Really?

Speaker 2 (12:40):
I don't really care to meet John frenchie Fuqua or
you know.

Speaker 3 (12:44):
What about Lane? What about Lane?

Speaker 1 (12:46):
What about Lane?

Speaker 2 (12:47):
N I would know I met you before I met
I met meeting Lane Kiff, and I would like to
meet just to tell him that when it's seventy eight
to nothing against Furman. You don't have to throw the
ball on third and seven. It's called being obnoxious. There's
some kind of but I don't really need to tell
him that. But they'll never get it anyways, because if
you're that much of a you're never going to understand

(13:10):
what I'm saying.

Speaker 1 (13:13):
And jeff Mine Rufus on Bet the Process had Michael
Lewis on on their last episode. So that's maybe a
podcast episode you're listen.

Speaker 2 (13:21):
I have that book mark to go listen to that one.

Speaker 1 (13:23):
Yeah, and uh, I believe Michael Lewis said that rufus
would make a good teacher, was the was one of
the big.

Speaker 4 (13:32):
He thinks I'd be a better teacher than better.

Speaker 1 (13:36):
To say that what you're talking about.

Speaker 4 (13:40):
We were talking about like maybe what's you know, finding
meaning in one's life and that kind of thing.

Speaker 1 (13:46):
You know, I think you are. You'd be a great one.

Speaker 2 (13:52):
He did great teaching people. People who tell me that
all the time because I can't explain topics rather thoroughly.

Speaker 1 (14:01):
I feel like many of us would be good teachers.
But if it but it had to pay more, right,
that's why you're never interested in doing it.

Speaker 2 (14:07):
Is that.

Speaker 1 (14:07):
Is that as simple as that.

Speaker 3 (14:09):
What are you eating?

Speaker 1 (14:09):
Gilly?

Speaker 4 (14:11):
Probably, i'd say, But also, I mean, being a teacher,
there isn't like the same sort of I don't know,
I'm a competitive person, and there isn't the same sort
of scoreboard there. But also I found it all surprising.
I think Jeff found it surprising because Jeff, like Jeff
knows I'm not the best explaining things in a sort
of concise manner.

Speaker 1 (14:32):
Well, when I ask you to pitch unabated, I always
famously tell you you're the worst at this, right, Yeah, yeah,
you're bad at this. Anyway, I just want to say
about because if you know, Rufus is a one of
the things that Michael Lewis says on the podcast Against
the Rules is that he believes and I've never heard

(14:53):
it couch this way, but it like made me super
proud of rufe Is. Not that I have any business
about being proud of ruf Is, like, but it did
because I've known Rufus for a long time. And one
of the things Michael Lewis said was, you know that
Roxy was sort of the first known person to really
use analytics to approach sports betting at least famously, and

(15:14):
that Rufus might be the bridge, you know, to that,
at least the way that his narrative went, because Michael
Lewis is a great sort of weaver of words, that
Rufus was the bridge to this next generation of gamblers
who used analytics. And I thought that was a you know,
I don't know, Rufe's kind of objected to it, but
I thought that was a really good way of couching it.
So anyway, just well, I.

Speaker 4 (15:35):
Think someone liked me, right, someone in my generation doing
this type of thing. I'm clearly not the only one.

Speaker 1 (15:43):
You're clearly not the only one. But you know, buck Off,
you were one of the first.

Speaker 4 (15:46):
How about that I'm one of the ones that is
more public facing?

Speaker 1 (15:55):
There you Okay, Rufus is very modern. Anyway, it was.
It's a it's a great podcast. It's a series of
episodes for Michael Lewis called Against the How Rufous And
this will cover some of the ground we covered yesterday
on radio. But how has this changed for you? You used
to always be up on the openers, that was your thing,
not so much any.

Speaker 4 (16:16):
Correct, Yeah, it's I mean, part of it's just that
I'm getting old and lazy and fat. I'm just not
you're so obese, you're so fat, not not obese fat,
just it's a mindset Gill.

Speaker 3 (16:32):
Yeah, but well so I think I think part of
it is like the is.

Speaker 4 (16:37):
Drive is just there isn't the same drive. But but
I think it's because there isn't the same biscuit. There
isn't There aren't thirty percent edges just sitting out there
that are going to disappear if you don't hit them,
or if there are, there's not as many of them
as there used to be. There used to be the
case that that there is so much value hitting openers,

(17:00):
especially when Will Hill put up openers the sports book,
not the person like you. We just couldn't get enough
money down. We'd be betting, like you know, they would
take a thousand per and we'd get two hundred thousand down.
And so we just have very big positions on the
openers and then kind of event wait for things to
kind of come back Super Weekend and kind of supplement

(17:21):
it a little bit there, but just have a ton
on these openers. And it was very much a race
to get the openers. We had a whole team in
Vegas we had people like someone was doing the loop
going from Win to Venetian over to Treasure Island, literally
doing it like every thirty minutes to check when the
prop sheet's coming out. Like you know, you had your

(17:43):
personal relationships with ticket writers and supervisors that came in
handy at this time of year. It's not the same anymore.
It kind of started with with mobile betting. Mobile betting
made it so that you didn't have there wasn't that
same return to sort of hustle that there used to
be because anybody can just do it on their own.
So that made the openers like last little or it

(18:05):
made the openers not quite as lucrative. And then now
with PASSPA being repealed and the fact that these books
are coming out with props Sunday night, and the fact
that you have these books pricing these more esoteric props
most weeks, the books have a better idea of what
they're what they're doing. And so if Win is pricing

(18:28):
or I don't know, South Point or you know, they're
pricing some prop that they only price once a year,
they still have a market to look at because there
is that prop up somewhere else Whereas in the past,
it was kind of like they're putting up something there
isn't really a market there, and so for that reason,
it just isn't isn't as lucrative or to go after

(18:48):
those openers, and like there's still plenty of value to
pick to be picked up. I think if you go
to like Westgate opening night, or if you get the
south Point openers or stations. I haven't even checked it
at stations this year, but I just decided that I'm
not going to stress over it and I'm just going
to like attack it this week rather than last week.

Speaker 1 (19:06):
That all that makes sense, especially the part about how
now they do props kind of every week so they
have the data, they have the muscle memory, which they
didn't give that example though, give like just one example,
just a sort of shed light on how it kind
of used to be the Johnny Avello prop that he
put out every single week.

Speaker 4 (19:24):
Yeah, that's the one that stands out in my head.
When he was at the wind it was will there
be a roughing? The passer penalty called? And he would
always open it no minus one fifteen, Yes, minus one fifteen,
so you bet it minus one fifteen vetted minus one
thirty vetitit minus one fifty minus one eighty you know, yes, ever, yes, clearly, yeah,

(19:48):
come on, come on, Todd.

Speaker 2 (19:50):
Well that's why I said, but maybe other people might
not have known that. So because you don't explain things, well,
I have to step in.

Speaker 3 (19:56):
If they don't know.

Speaker 4 (19:57):
If people think that there's roughing the passer penalty is
called in the majority of games, I don't know what
to say to them.

Speaker 1 (20:07):
So and so the so. Not to pick on Johnny,
but like he didn't adjust from year to year. There
was no like analysis on their part on any I think.

Speaker 4 (20:17):
You just I think he just looked at the sheet
that basically, I think he probably saved a version of
the sheet from the previous year, like with which had
the openers, not what it moved to. That's my own
that's that's my only gassination. But it probably, to be
fair to Johnny, it doesn't actually matter that that much.

(20:37):
It's one game a year and and that stuff does
get bet into shape by sharps, and when he's taking
action from Wales on Super Bowl Sunday, the odds are
pretty much in line with the market.

Speaker 1 (20:52):
It's it's so you have just made the sort of
time allotment assessment at this point that while there might
be some opportunity, it's not anywhere there it used to be,
and so you're just not about that anymore.

Speaker 4 (21:04):
And so you general I think there still are big
opportunities out there because they're the problem and you've gotten
even more extensive and there. I think that there's a
lot of opportunities probably surrounding sgps for people attacking that,
but that's going to be that it's a different ballgame.

Speaker 1 (21:21):
So what percentage of your prop bets? And by the way,
you have nothing on the on the side or total.
You're not even interested in the side.

Speaker 4 (21:30):
I haven't even been made numbers. I haven't even looked
at you.

Speaker 1 (21:34):
Have you been a side or total all year in
the NFL.

Speaker 4 (21:38):
I've got a money line? Does that count?

Speaker 1 (21:41):
Okay? But that gets the impression.

Speaker 4 (21:42):
Money lines, teasers, first half, money lines, some derivatives. But
I haven't I haven't bet a full game side of
total or I haven't bet a full game side of
total since like maybe Week three. I think early season,
I thought there might I thought early season I might
have had a little bit of alpha just being directionally

(22:03):
correct on teams and over moves.

Speaker 2 (22:05):
So remember you real quick the thing about same game parlays?
Are you and I assume this is what you're saying.
You're basically saying there's certain correlations that they're not pricing properly,
and because of that, they're making the same game parlay
number incorrectly. Is that what you're saying.

Speaker 4 (22:26):
I think there are books that have some things in
general they're not pricing properly. I've I kind of did
a deep dive into this earlier this NFL season and
went down that rabbit hole and found some interesting stuff.
But the problem is it's hard, it's hard to scale out,
to scale that out. I also think that there's a
lot of opportunities because these are models built pricing all

(22:49):
these correlations, and they're they are built to be generally correct,
but there are going to be exceptions. I don't think
any model is going to be able to hand be
able to predict or properly priced the fact that the
running back usage for running back one versus running back
two correlation like on one specific team might look very

(23:13):
different than another team, like clearly like think about think
about the or I was called them the Giants because Saquon,
but think about the Eagles and Saquon Like, there's not
a ton of uncertainty in terms of what percentage of
the running back carries he's going to get. I think
you could say there's some uncertainty and how much Jalen
Hurts is going to run the ball, but Saquon is

(23:35):
going to get If he gets less than eighty percent
of the running back carries, that would be a huge,
huge shock unless he gets hurt. Agree, Yes, now, Kareem Hunt,
I could see I wouldn't be shocked if he got
seventy percent of the running back carries, and I also
wouldn't be shocked if he got thirty percent of the
running back carries.

Speaker 1 (23:51):
Okay, right, right, So.

Speaker 4 (23:56):
That's like I feel like, because so that's like a
bellcow running back versus running back by committee. But there's
running back by committee teams like the Falcons where you're
generally getting about the same share every week, you know
Al Gyre and b Jean Robinson, where there weren't weeks
where one guy was getting like eighty percent the other

(24:17):
guy was getting twenty. It was like in the sixty
forty ish range one way or another most weeks, And
if I remember correctly, at least that was the case
when I was looking at it in like October November.
But I could see with the uncertainty, I guess with Pachecko.
You know, Pacheco came back from injury week thirteen. He
hasn't been hasn't been great, but neither's Kareem Hunt. But

(24:39):
they're trusting Kareem Hunt in these big situations. It seems
like like to be able to get to get like
that difficult one or two yards where they need it,
like he and he's doing well that even though he's
running for like three yards of carry, and so you
could see I could see a world where Pachecko, like Pacheco,
plays a good amount earlier in the game more than later.

(24:59):
But if he if he starts off high, that they
just keep riding him. Like I could see that that world.
I think there's right. He was the belcow running back
for that team before before he got hurt. The Kareem
Hunt was also that before, meaning like six years ago.
But however many years ago. Was My point is there's different,
Like there's all these game specific things and team specific

(25:22):
things that are that some general algorithm is going to
have a really really tough time pricing, and so if
you can find the sort of exceptions to the rule,
I think there's always opportunity there.

Speaker 1 (25:33):
Interesting what what percentage? Then we talked about this yesterday.
What percentage of your super Bowl prop bets now because
you don't do opener, because you don't show up at
the Westgate? What percentage of your super Bowl prop bets
occur tomorrow on or day of game.

Speaker 4 (25:53):
Tomorrow tomorrow on versus day or day of game?

Speaker 1 (25:57):
In other words, day of game, is you know, percent
tomorrow and is ninety five percent? Basically made any bets.

Speaker 4 (26:05):
I've made like four bets. I just was looking through
and I was like, yea, I might as well bet something.

Speaker 1 (26:12):
I appreciate it.

Speaker 4 (26:13):
So basically I made no bets. So it's basically tomorrow
it's gonna be basically everything, all right, and you share it.
Assume Saturday Sunday would be Saturday Sunday will be like
at least eighty five percent, I would think.

Speaker 1 (26:28):
And that is because your inclination, your assumption, which is
a good one, is that people will bet stuff upwards
over and you will come in on the unders.

Speaker 4 (26:37):
Generally speaking, yes, for some things, there's plenty of things
where that's not going to happen too though, and so
it's just a matter of this is when we'll all
be ready to go and we'll have the team together,
and I think we'll try to we mad bet some
stuff a little bit earlier, just then maybe it can
bounce back and we can bet it again. Just that
way we can get more down Versus if we wait
and wait and wait and bet something, then we don't

(26:59):
give the market to sort of move back, then we
we can't get as much down.

Speaker 1 (27:06):
Can you share what you have bet so far?

Speaker 4 (27:11):
I think I might have bet a under on interceptions,
and I think I bet a yes on three unanswered scores.
I bet some basic game prop stuff basically.

Speaker 1 (27:23):
Under on interception total interceptions by both teams, yes and yes.

Speaker 4 (27:33):
And that's one that's going to just get better, I think,
because people are going to bet the yes and interceptions.
People are betting those overs.

Speaker 1 (27:41):
People, but people's brains are wired that way. The three
consecutive scorers that I'm sorry, Todd hold on one second,
the three the three consecutive scores prop that Rufe has
just mentioned is the one that I always say on
this podcast, probably every year, is the prop that plummixes
new betters the most, which is it's worded, will the
team score three times in a row with the exception

(28:02):
of two point conversions and extra points? And most new
betters think to themselves, well, these are two of the
best teams in football, if not the two best teams.
It's got to be very unlikely that three scores happen
in a row. And so they believe that the minus
number is in the wrong side of this right. They
believe the no should be heavily juiced, when in fact,

(28:23):
it is the yes that is juiced and the yes
at I think you bet it at minus one sixty,
you were saying it's still a good bet.

Speaker 4 (28:28):
Looks like I got it at Westgate at minus one fifty,
and I got it at Circa at minus one sixty,
and that's the only Yeah, it's the only thing I
bet at Circa. I also bet yes, yes, I'm sorry,
case here, I bet yes, well, case your Philadelphia make
a field goal in the fourth quarter, yes, minus one fifty, Okay,
I don't think that was a So I just assumed

(28:51):
you wouldn't stay there.

Speaker 1 (28:54):
And you know that you know that's a good bet,
just from your muscle memory of how that numbers came up.

Speaker 4 (29:01):
Yeah, I mean that's algorithmic. It's based on it, well,
it's based on how many total touchdowns and fieldals I
have projected in the spread and total in the game.

Speaker 1 (29:11):
What's the number on the three consecutive scores. What's the
number that you would not bet it at minus what?

Speaker 4 (29:17):
I don't think I would bet it at minus one
seventy or above?

Speaker 1 (29:24):
Dodd, you were saying, I.

Speaker 2 (29:27):
Was just gonna ask about punts. I feel like punts
have been just becoming less and less likely, so I
don't know whether they've adjusted those down.

Speaker 4 (29:34):
Enough you've been watching.

Speaker 1 (29:36):
I think that's he loves the Skins.

Speaker 2 (29:39):
That's not just Redskins.

Speaker 1 (29:43):
I think Todd brings up Todd brings up a good
point because I think, and this was Steve Feesik's point
when he was on the radio side, which is, of
all the things that books are least likely to have
adjusted for here in twenty you know, beginning of twenty
twenty five, but after the twenty twenty four season, is
the rate at which teams are willing to go for

(30:06):
fourth downs, which correlates with fewer punts, perhaps fewer field
goal attempts. Would you agree with that general premise that's
somewhere in one world.

Speaker 2 (30:17):
One other thing, long drives. We never used to see
ten minute drives that are now that's like the norm.
It happens all the time.

Speaker 4 (30:26):
Again, this is the Washington Redskins. That's the game they've
been playing. I don't think that's every team.

Speaker 2 (30:32):
There's every I think punts are down in general in
the league as a whole. You're right with the Redskins,
but I think in general, you don't think the punts
are down in the league as a whole.

Speaker 4 (30:44):
I don't know what they were last year. I actually
I'm not low on punts in this game, believe it
or not. I think maybe there's some recency bias. But
I do think that we are seeing there's less explosive
offense clearly than there was five years ago, because I
think it's the the way defenses are have adapted. Defenses
are fourteen team to have these fourteen exactly.

Speaker 2 (31:09):
Right, will I said, the fourteen play drive is now
basically the defense has decided, let's see if you can
beat us and not make a mistake in fourteen plays,
and therefore we're getting less drives I mean, you have
tons of NFL games now where there's three drives aside
in the first half, and that's it because that first

(31:30):
drive is you know a lot of times seven to
eight minutes, same thing coming out of the third quarter
happens all the time.

Speaker 1 (31:37):
Do you anticipate rufus? And I don't know if you're
taking requests because you might not want to give away
this stuff, but I'll ask because it came up on
numbers game this morning. Do you anticipate any value on
will a team attempt a two point conversion given the
Given the Eagles propensity for wanting to toush push.

Speaker 4 (31:58):
I don't think you can touch push from two and
a half yards out.

Speaker 1 (32:01):
No, but if you get a defensive if you get
a defensive penalty, they'll It's an automatic for any team
now on an extra point. I'm just curious if they've
adjusted for that kind of thing. Maybe that's where I
think the fourth I think I was interesting.

Speaker 4 (32:15):
I think that's the kind of thing the public's can
to betting the yes on. And so I'm gonna if
I bet that, I'm gonna wait and bet the no.
Probably Okay, So I think I'll get a better price
close to game time.

Speaker 1 (32:27):
Willie, Uh you you did bet the side here?

Speaker 3 (32:32):
I mean, not a big bet. And part of it
is doing these shows and podcasts for two weeks. You know,
come on here, I don't have anything in the game.
We'll just move on. It's a super Bowl pill. They
got to pick somebody out. I'm just gonna go with Mahomes,
went with them last year, going with them all of
these games before the Bills game, where it's just like
I can put my head on the pill at night,
knowing I bet my Homes and if I lose, I lose.
I just h He's at the point where I don't

(32:52):
want to go against them. I admit Philly getting a
point and a Half's got the better roster, the better team,
the better stats, yards for play, a lot of this stuff.
I'm just I think Todd you put it well. Right
as the Chiefs Bills game was winding down, right right
after that came ended, probably going to be a close game.
In a close game, do you want Andy Reid Mahomes
and I'll throw in Bucker, the Chiefs kicker, Or do
you want and Elliott who's been very, very shaky for them?

Speaker 2 (33:15):
Yeah, that's another huge thing. I agree with Chiefs. To me,
it's Mahomes and Andy Reid and Spagnola against Sirianni Hurts
and then you got Saque. But a running back can
be game planned for. I feel like a lot easier.
And I totally forgot about that. Jake Elliott has been
a disaster. And if this becomes a close game, I

(33:37):
don't know. I just think in the loarm, I would this.

Speaker 4 (33:40):
Guy's never want the postseason kick?

Speaker 1 (33:41):
Right?

Speaker 4 (33:42):
Isn't Jake Elliott something like twenty four for twenty four
in the postseason?

Speaker 3 (33:45):
He missed one. Last week's Washington he missed two extra
points against the.

Speaker 2 (33:49):
Extra point I was in the I was at the game,
and last last week.

Speaker 4 (33:53):
I know maybe maybe the graphic clue must have made
him miss but but I did see, and I do
vaguely Yeah, I do vaguely remember him missing last week.
But but I guess before that he hadn't missed ever
in the postseason.

Speaker 3 (34:05):
For a fielder. He's just he's been bad this year.

Speaker 1 (34:15):
Rufus has been skiing and playing golf. We don't have
time for this anymore.

Speaker 3 (34:19):
Going to the bathroom, detail go to the bathroom.

Speaker 4 (34:24):
I want to pull this I'm gonna pull up these
stats here because I now need to now I need
to see.

Speaker 1 (34:30):
But heed, he was over one.

Speaker 4 (34:33):
Last week he missed. He missed a fifty plus yardfield
goal he made he against the Rams, he made three
for three field goals and one for three extra points.
Three for three field goals and one for two extra points. See,
this is a statement he's making to the team. He's like,
stop this going forward on fourth down and scoring touchdowns,

(34:54):
Like like I'm a field goal guy, Like we need
field goals but for yeah, but like you look.

Speaker 2 (35:04):
When the Rams were driving, When the Rams were driving
inside the fifteen, I was hoping that they didn't score
that touchdown because Jake Elliott would have been killed by
the Philadelphia fans. The rabid Eagles lunatics would have found
him and killed him because he would have been his
fault that lost that game.

Speaker 3 (35:20):
So he's missed the kicking all three playoff games. Missed
next against which I didn't remember.

Speaker 4 (35:26):
Okay, but let's what about under pressure?

Speaker 2 (35:29):
Well, extra points are kind of important, are they not.

Speaker 1 (35:34):
Under pressure?

Speaker 4 (35:35):
What's a big a kick in a big pressure?

Speaker 2 (35:40):
What's the sample size on that? How many kicks does
he had at the end of the game for the
win or not. In this year, probably not many.

Speaker 3 (35:49):
I don't know, but we could look for.

Speaker 4 (35:51):
We could look back in his career, his career field
goal percentage. He's twenty two for twenty three in field
goals in the playoffs career, and I only thirty two
for thirty seven extra points.

Speaker 2 (36:03):
Well that's that. Yeah, that's pretty good now.

Speaker 4 (36:06):
But you're I mean, like the extra points do matter clearly,
and that that's a I stand corrected. It was just
being Arrian.

Speaker 1 (36:15):
I'm on the Chiefs too. It's it's you know, it's
a again like will it's you know, we're this in
a window and early window in week eleven, would I
bet it? I'm being honest.

Speaker 3 (36:27):
Problem known to man. I would be teasing Eagles everywhere
from week eleven. Unfortunately there's not another teaser late.

Speaker 1 (36:35):
But Patrick Mahomes has won, and then the Chiefs have
won seventeen consecutive one score games, twelve in a row
this year, so I'm certainly not fading him. Let me
just ask you this for those because I think Todd
you're on the Chiefs as well.

Speaker 2 (36:48):
I love I love the Chiefs.

Speaker 1 (36:50):
Here I asked, I'll ask this though, even for those
of us who are on the Chiefs, if I I
said this this morning, if I came to you from
the future and I said, oh, ok, guys, a team,
one of these teams blew out the other one, even
as Chiefs backers, wouldn't you probably guess it's the Eagles
that did the blowing out.

Speaker 2 (37:12):
Probably yes.

Speaker 1 (37:14):
So that's a little weird, right, So it's like we
were even those of us who are backing the Chiefs
are like, yeah, because they have this one score ability
and they just figure it out. However, we also acknowledge
that the Eagles do have a game script, as we've
seen in numerable times this year, where they just wear
you out, and so that's an that's an interesting sort

(37:36):
of thing. I don't think I ever remember going into
a Super Bowl, let alone any other game where I'm like, yeah,
I'm on this team, but if it's a blowout, it's
probably as.

Speaker 2 (37:44):
But I was kind of surprised, how how the like
that Redskins game was a lot closer than people realized.
Fifty five twenty three final. But let's be fair, if
they don't fumble the ball, you know, on that end
of a half situation, and it goes into the half
twenty to twelve. And then even after that, the ball
I mean, it wasn't like the Eagles defense was just

(38:04):
shutting them down. And then I went to that game
in Philadelphia against the Rams, and I was shocked by
how much the Rams were able to move the ball
in the Eagles. I thought the Eagles defense was a
lot better then it really played the last two weeks
of the playoffs. To me, I didn't think it was
it was that spectacular. I certainly was surprised that Washington
was able to move the ball as well as they were,

(38:26):
you know, on the road like that in a playoff game,
and that game could have been a lot tighter. So
to me, I feel like, you're really going to stop
Kansas City. You're not going to stop Kansas City. Come on,
in the end, it comes down to the end. Night
Holmes to make a big play. He's going to make
the play.

Speaker 1 (38:41):
The Eagles Skins game was thirty four to twenty three Eagles,
but the Redskins had the ball and that's when Eckler
got the ball poked out. Now, the Eagles deserve credit
because it was a great poke out right like Eggler
was getting back. Let me just let me just finish that.
Eckler was getting backed up and he got the perfect poke,
so he do deserve credit. But like the final score

(39:02):
was cosmetic, I'll give you that. And can they count.
That's the thing, by the way, with the championship games,
the Skins fumbled three times, the Eagles were covered all three.
The Bills fumbled four times. They recovered all of them.
Our brain doesn't usually process.

Speaker 2 (39:16):
Yeah, well, kids City all the game going away, if
they went to have fumbled going in at seven to three,
Kansas City's driving and fumbles the ball. Way if it
goes fourteen to three there and kans City's getting the
ball to start the second half, I think, you know,
Buffalo's And by the way, the play that the big
play that everyone made a big deal about, which is
probably correct, that that there wasn't a catchdown that actually

(39:39):
helped the Bills because then the Bill's got a chance
to come back and match the touchdown to make it
twenty one sixteen at the half. So I don't know.
I to me, it's just I don't know. I mean, look,
I respect that the Eagles. I think they're a great team.
They're definitely deserved to be in the Super Bowl. In
the end, I just feel like it's going to be
Andy Reid against Siriani and Mahomes against Jalen Hurtson, and
I'll take the Chiefs.

Speaker 3 (40:01):
Chiefs also dropped a couple of interceptions from Allen that
first drive, like the first two passes one of them.
They dropped two on the same play. And I think
the Chiefs took a knee inside the red zone when
they got the first down to seal it, So if
they needed more points, they probably.

Speaker 1 (40:15):
Could have got more points. For whatever that's worth. Any
props for either of you guys, will or not?

Speaker 3 (40:22):
I mean, I know got it over is a popular one.
I think that's still a good one. Chiefs have struggled
with tight end. I think they've given up an average
like seventy two seventy three yards per tight end. Dowers
went for one forty likely went for one hundred and change.
I think matchup wise, Goddar get into like five for
sixty or something is certainly reasonable. So I do like
the Goddard over and I don't think the Chiefs will
be able to run the ball, so Mahomes over attempts.

(40:43):
I know it's high at thirty five and a half,
thirty six and a half. I still like the over.
I think this is going to have to be a
Mahomes games. I don't think. I just don't think with
their offensive line against the Eagles defensive line, I don't
think it's one where they're gonna be able to run
it for three four yards of carrier.

Speaker 1 (40:55):
I think they're gonna have to throw it a lot.
For those who are wondering, because a little tradition on
this last podcast is that we do halftime bets in
National Lamp and bets if they're available, and they are available,
and I've made bets. Kendrick Lamar is your halftime show.
I have two bets on his first song. One is

(41:17):
at two to one. They not like us at two
to one, not the short shot. That was the bet there.
I also have a Friskar with you don't think that's
gonna be it? You think he's gonna end it with that?

Speaker 3 (41:27):
Probably I've seen the possibilities and I just feel like
he's going to go outside the box.

Speaker 1 (41:34):
Well, the longer shot I took. The longer shot I
took was at seven to one, and that's the song
that's a swimming pools where he basically says he goes
wish Nev drank Todd drank che by the way, uh
wager wager on the line.

Speaker 2 (41:58):
Wait, can I just say one thing? Kendrick Lamar came
right up here, right now and said hi to me.
I wouldn't be able to tell you it's him.

Speaker 1 (42:07):
He speaks very highly of Utah.

Speaker 2 (42:09):
No, he might be. He must be a huge superstar.
Just don't know anything about that world at all.

Speaker 3 (42:16):
Did they take a reasonable bet from Megully?

Speaker 1 (42:18):
No, they did not take a reason Okay, is the
correct answer to that question? The uh. I will tell
you this if if National Anthem CLV is what you're
looking for, I'm your man. John Baptiste, the American Treasure
is singing the national anthem. He's more known for his
keyboard playing his keyboard. He's a keyboardist and a just
a general all amazing musician. He has a couple renditions

(42:42):
of the star Spangled banner online. One hundred and twenty
five seconds is where it was line two minutes and
five seconds minus one sixty under. I was like pound
the under minus one sixty's not nearly enough. It moved
since then has moved two seconds lower. Since that has
moved another two seconds lower. Now it's at one hundred
and twenty one one seconds, So two minutes in one
second I would still go under.

Speaker 3 (43:04):
That'd be mine one hundred and twenty one seconds, also
known as the wish nev.

Speaker 2 (43:09):
Why is it known as the wish nev?

Speaker 1 (43:12):
I don't guilty.

Speaker 2 (43:14):
It would have been a lot less than a minute
and twenty one seconds. It's like twenty one seconds period.
And plus with the tariffs, you got to take a
couple of seconds off of that.

Speaker 1 (43:24):
Oh terriff humor. I get that in there, all right.
So any other props that we any other insights that
we haven't shared here, anything rop wise, anything where do
you see?

Speaker 3 (43:41):
If he doesn't mind rufus, this is a popular one.
Scoring the first six minutes, scoring the first five minutes.
With the Super Bowl, they let you pick the time.
Is that something that you've bet in the past, Is
that something you have interest in? And is your inclination
to usually go yes or no? It all depends on
the game.

Speaker 4 (43:56):
So that's of his price basically act really now it
didn't used to be, but so I haven't found value
either way, And I've just been doing it off of
spread and total, so you know, I mean there used
to be more value on the yes because people thought
that teams start slow in the super Bowl because historically
they have right and and so I was kind of

(44:18):
a contrary into that, thinking that was overfit. But what
area I didn't think this year?

Speaker 1 (44:28):
Right? I was just gonna ask you, that'll be perfect.

Speaker 2 (44:33):
You said that that there's you know a lot of
this stuff has become more formulaic and they understand it.
What what areas if you don't mind sharing? Do you
feel like have not really been you know, explored enough
to the point where there's gonna be a little bit
bigger mistakes.

Speaker 4 (44:50):
Theoretically, I think it's the more esoteric stuff that maybe
only one book is offering, where there isn't a lot
to go off of, and the stuff that and offered
every week. I think those are those are the greater chances.
I mean, I don't have anything off the top of
my head.

Speaker 3 (45:09):
Now, will you bet this game live? Rufus?

Speaker 1 (45:14):
No, he's not a live better.

Speaker 3 (45:17):
Because I actually do think if you bet the Chiefs
and I thought about this too, maybe I'll bet a
little more than I want on the Chiefs and if
they go up seven nothing and I can get Philly
plus three and a half, I mean, I just I
don't see the Chiefs winning by a lot, right, Kansas
City winning by a field goal seems like, yeah, are
very realistic outcomes, So getting it. You can get the
Eagles over a field goal, I know you're landing will
extra juice lie, but that I don't think is a

(45:38):
terrible way to play it. That's the other thing too,
where you're getting a point a half of the Eagles
if they go three and our or if the Chiefs
start up three nothing, I mean, you're gonna get You're
gonna get a better number on Philly at some point,
you would think, unless it's just Philly all the way,
which is something I keep in mind.

Speaker 4 (45:51):
Are the Chiefs the better team to come back? Nothing
better equipped?

Speaker 2 (45:56):
Yeah?

Speaker 4 (45:56):
Probably what they've done under Mahomes, Like every game, it
feels like, especially in.

Speaker 3 (46:02):
The playoffs, they've erased a lot of double digit, double
digit deficits for sure.

Speaker 4 (46:07):
What is isn't what's Mahomes's record when trailing double digits,
isn't it? It's like insane?

Speaker 3 (46:14):
Yeah, I know, the first of all they won, they
trailed every single playoff game by double digits, including the
Super Bowl, yet won every playoff game by double digits,
which is just incredible to think about.

Speaker 1 (46:26):
Of the season, I.

Speaker 4 (46:27):
Think that he overcame multiple double digit deficits and it's
not like they lost a lot of games this year.

Speaker 1 (46:36):
You guys understand the I do not understand the Chiefs
fatigue or the Chiefs hate. Like with Tom Brady and
the Patriots, I sort of got it. There was Spygate,
there was deflate Gate, even though it was never proven,
the Flay game, and people just I guess Tom Brady
was more of a cerebral player, wasn't really athleticism, and
people got really started to hate the Patriots, And I

(46:58):
got that. I don't get with the Chiefs, like Mahomes
is just the most the most fun player to watch.
They're going for a three peat, excell. I love any
sport that has a team that is not only dynastic
but just awesome to watch, like great like this and
doing things. I mean, seventeen to one score wins in
a row that's never getting broken.

Speaker 3 (47:20):
Never a different version of themselves too, where they trade
Tyreek kill and what if somebody told you at the moment,
all right, they traded Tyreek Hill, which was a kind
of a blockbuster out of nowhere to deal to Miami.
At the time was in March or something. They're gonna
win the Super Bowl this year, They're gonna win the
sup Bowl the next year. Then they're gonna be playing
for the Suer Bowl in the third year. It is.

Speaker 1 (47:36):
It is remarkable Duke's in the PNW. No way someone
has historically punctual as Todd would be late for the
season finale of the megapod. Richard Palmont is he live
from a cork basement in New Orleans? No, still at
his mom's. Itit'sburg Buddhist Man. The first annual superb oriol
Megapod twenty twenty four Baseball Review Pod with tortured Orioles fan,
Rufus Peabody Yankees fan and noted house Steinbrenner Hatered not

(47:59):
the will Hill and empty PNC Park Heckler, Todd wishnet
and then finally does Todd wishnev have a bunch of
old driver's licenses stabled to the cork attic wall behind
him like Judge Valkenheiser did in Nothing But trouble. I
don't know that.

Speaker 2 (48:16):
Yeah, I was really I was really bummed last year
with the Orioles because I was really enjoying betting Orioles
team totals over like every game and it was winning
every single game, and then all of a sudden, it
was just it went empty and I got sad, Like
the Orioles just went like deathly cold offensively in the
last part of the year. That's what I was.

Speaker 4 (48:37):
They really limped in. They had they had no vibes
entering the playoffs, negative vibes.

Speaker 2 (48:43):
But if you remember, like in June and July, they
were crushing the ball every single games like eight runs,
ten runs, was insane.

Speaker 1 (48:51):
Yeah. Yeah, they swept the Yankees or something didn't. Something happened.
They had a huge series and then late and then
I just went all the I have a question Riuver's
last thing about a prop uh opening kickoffs? I think
it's opening kickoffs. Will the opening kickoff be a touchback?
That kind of thing. Obviously, we have new kickoff rules

(49:16):
new now these days. When you put that kind of
stuff into a model, is one year's sample size enough
for you to make a bet on or is that
just not enough?

Speaker 4 (49:29):
I would say one year is enough. I haven't even
looked at kickoffs yet, to be honest, but you will
haven't probably. But again it's if there were huge edges,
they would have already been picked off by other sharp
betters looking for mispricings there. So I don't anticipate it
being a very lucrative thing to do. But at the

(49:51):
same time, I probably need that to figure out, like
longest kickoff return, number of kickoff returns, things like that.

Speaker 3 (50:00):
It's like that, what do you guys do for snacks
during the game?

Speaker 4 (50:05):
Oh? Stress, eat whatever is in front of me.

Speaker 1 (50:09):
I do too, I do too. You don't.

Speaker 3 (50:11):
You don't order to go or anything. You just wherever
you are.

Speaker 4 (50:16):
I have other people like we we we have a
party every year, a party. It's like twelve of us
that are all either they were all at some point
affiliated with the betting group or friends of the original
betting group from back in like twelve years ago. So
it's it's not it's not super wild, but someone else

(50:38):
deals with the food situation. I'm always too busy with
getting ready for the game betting wise.

Speaker 1 (50:44):
Where you do watch it at this point, you do
watch it rufous at this. Yeah, well, of course not much.

Speaker 4 (50:53):
It was only once I didn't I will say during
I think it was the Bengals Super Bowl. The first
quarter went so poorly that I just went and got
in the hot tub and just didn't watch for like
a few drives. But then it ended up being a
good super Bowl.

Speaker 1 (51:07):
What are you going to do? You have nothing specifically.
Probably I'll just probably get Chipotle all the day, tod.

Speaker 4 (51:16):
How about you watching it so.

Speaker 2 (51:19):
Well? Because I do, you know, really take my food
intake very seriously lately. You know, I'll be uh, I'll
probably I mean, there's a good chance I may die
of diabetes in the next week, so you have to
put that in the model too. It's probably about plus
eight fifty that I could go down. And and if
the you know, the ozempic gets tariffed and I can't

(51:40):
afford ozempic anymore. Hell, I could be five hundred by
next next season.

Speaker 1 (51:45):
And you know, you what's to deal with you is
the ozempic keeping your weight where it is? Are we
going with that?

Speaker 2 (51:53):
I mean, I think the ozempic has helped me not
be three seventy, but I'm still three twenty, So it's
a disaster though, But that's just because my mental problems
are so deeply ingrained that it's obviously, you know, not
just the food. You know, I obviously have such strong
addiction issues with food that it's like ridiculous.

Speaker 3 (52:15):
Don't you take Fez's advice and just don't eat as
much or whatever?

Speaker 2 (52:19):
Well, that's a great idea. I've never thought of that.
I never thought of drinking a lot of water and
not eating as much. And when he gives those great ideas,
sometimes I wonder, how could this guy be wasted in
the field of sports gambling. He really should be like
running in the world. He should be like, you know,
the next Elon Musk, you know, Stevie Fesik with these
ideas of maybe eating less. That's a good concept, and

(52:39):
it's something that people have never really cried.

Speaker 4 (52:42):
Do you think Steve's ever told drug addicts just.

Speaker 1 (52:46):
Just just say, you know, I've never thought of that.

Speaker 4 (52:52):
I never thought I had a choice.

Speaker 1 (52:56):
I don't know what. I don't know what I enjoy more. Though,
when when fees gives that advice, or the way that
Todd takes it, well, well, I try to say that,
you try to explain him.

Speaker 2 (53:09):
Is there such a world. Is there a word in
the dictionary called compulsive? Is does that word exist or not?
Because if it does exist, then it's something. If it
doesn't exist, then I'm with you. There's no such word
as compulsivity, and there's no such thing as psychological you know, situations.
And that's the world he lives in. But it's quite
possible he may be a robot from another simulation. So

(53:32):
that is another reason why he may not believe in
such things, because I don't believe AI will have compulsive
of course, although if the if the large language models
are big enough, maybe they'll teach computers to be compulsive too,
and we'll start having AI robots that are fat.

Speaker 3 (53:47):
You never did give a compliment to the Starbucks menu today,
said they streamlined it, cut out a few things. He
said it's still overpriced and the lines are too long,
et cetera. But he did have some Starbucks commentary this
morning which I found interesting.

Speaker 4 (53:59):
Exten just I mean, his Twitter is just he'll go
from betting exchanges whatever. Yes, but it's it's some sometimes
there's just this like lack of I don't say lack
of self awareness in some ways, but but yes, someone
like I guess something that I'm like, what were you thinking?

Speaker 1 (54:23):
They noticed? Self awareness? What? Whatever?

Speaker 2 (54:27):
Do not ever bet a money line over minus four
hundred ever, ever ever, and then becomes famous for losing
them for dude to fairly Dickinson. So he's not always
exactly consistent. Now, with all that said, we love Tavie,
but the consistency and the self awareness sometimes are a
little lacking.

Speaker 1 (54:47):
The greatest guy, we too, but we tell him to
his faith. Yeah, tell it to his faith.

Speaker 3 (54:55):
If he's still listening to Yes, he's totally.

Speaker 1 (54:58):
I always tell him in real life it goes, maybe
he's such a normal, reasonable person in real life? Are
you such an asshole on Twitter? What happens to you?
And he does have a little the thing that I
appreciate he's does have awareness in the moment where he's like, yeah,
you're probably right corner. Right the second he turns the corner,
he's just firing on Twitter again. You just can't help himself.

(55:20):
He's like, if there was a nozebic for Twitter for
being a Twitter asshole, he should take it, DoD what
did you say? It's you hear voices, food voices. I
think it's actually interesting you hear food voices, and then that.

Speaker 2 (55:34):
Is a bad way of explaining it. But there's I mean,
people who have dealt with compulsive eating will understand what
I'm talking about. People who haven't will not understand. You know,
the urges that that I'm getting for food to do
something improperly with food, because I'm planning every day to
eat healthy too many of the days. Maybe not every day.

(55:55):
Most some days I'm just demoralized. But many days I'm
planning on doing the right thing. I have a streak
of three good days, or twenty good days or seven
good days. But the problem is is whatever's running the show,
and the subconscious is obviously stronger than the conscious, and
that I don't know how to explain that to people
who don't have that issue, other than to say, I

(56:16):
understand why you think I'm crazy. Because if I go
into a bar, I don't have to have a drink.
I mean, I could have an alcoholic drink today and
never have one for another five years, and I wouldn't
even hear a call to my brain to have some
alcoholic beverage. So when a guy desperately needs an alcoholic drink,
I don't understand what he's feeling. So obviously I don't

(56:39):
have that thing. So that's probably the way other people
are thinking about me when I drive past the Pizza Sharp,
just don't go into the fucking Pizza Sharp. What's wrong
with you? And I understand what they're saying, however, it's
I don't think what's happening in their brain is the
same that's happening in my brain. And that's why I
use the example of alcohol, because I have no interest
in alcohol whatsoever.

Speaker 1 (57:00):
Tim Lawson chimes in, doing something improperly with food definitely
makes it sound like you're screwing your food. What the difference?

Speaker 2 (57:08):
I mean, I probably do if it was zab You're done.

Speaker 1 (57:11):
But yeah, that's a good reason. Okay. And on that note,
Rufus appreciated good luck with all your bets that you
are about to make ninety five percent of apparently for
Super Bowl fifty nine. We're all the rest of us

(57:31):
are all in the chiefs, no totals. Nobody's betting the
total in this game, nobody not here.

Speaker 4 (57:37):
I'm going to be rooting for the under, probably just
because it props. Yeah, it's always I'll probably be rooting
for nothing to happen.

Speaker 2 (57:46):
So you probably liked that Patriots round game.

Speaker 1 (57:49):
I love boring.

Speaker 4 (57:50):
Oh yeah, of course, I love boring super Bowls.

Speaker 2 (57:53):
That was the super Bowl was on the actions.

Speaker 1 (57:56):
Yeah, that was the one where you had the Rams
that hitting exactly three points for a good amount.

Speaker 3 (58:01):
I remember that that was before.

Speaker 4 (58:03):
That was literally like the most boring super Bowl to
watch from a perspective of like a fan of entertainment.

Speaker 1 (58:08):
But it was.

Speaker 4 (58:09):
But I was loving every minute of it. It's like
nothing tappening. It's amazing.

Speaker 3 (58:13):
This is what I fin There're being a late field
goal in garbage time? Did they miss one late?

Speaker 1 (58:19):
They missed? I missed it. Yeah, they missed one late
wide left. Yeah, would have easily won.

Speaker 3 (58:26):
The Pats did nothing. I remember the Rams finally got
a first down like across midfield when the game was
maybe tied, and they called it back with a whole
that That was one Brady did not play well in
that game. That was one they could have lost.

Speaker 4 (58:35):
That's neither off all.

Speaker 1 (58:36):
Well, yeah, you're right. That was the Todd Wished Discovery
super Bowl. Todd wishne plucked out of a crowd for
showtime Docus. I actually haven't watch I got to watch that.

Speaker 4 (58:48):
How do you how do you feel how many years
ago is this four?

Speaker 1 (58:52):
Five, six years ago? Now six years ago?

Speaker 2 (58:57):
Because it was filming the football season of twenty eighteen
and the Super Bowl of twenty nineteen, so it was
exactly six years ago.

Speaker 4 (59:06):
So six years How do you feel about your appearance
on that? Like? Looking back?

Speaker 2 (59:13):
How do I feel about it?

Speaker 4 (59:15):
Yeah?

Speaker 2 (59:16):
I mean in what sense? Well, I feel like I
would have never met somebody like Gil had not been
so that was a huge positive there, You know, I don't.
The truth is, I knew exactly what I was getting
myself into, so I didn't, like, I didn't want to
appear too smart because I was worried, you know, that
I would get limited or something like that. So that

(59:38):
was fine, and then you know, other than maybe you
know it not going anywhere. But I didn't really care
whether it was fine. I guess overall, I don't really.
I was fine about it, and I knew that they
could they would twist certain things and everything ahead of time,
so I wasn't really But I'm not that concerned about
what everybody thinks. Otherwise I wouldn't do a megapod for

(59:58):
my mom's organic would I? And have you know fun
of me endlessly. But that's fine.

Speaker 1 (01:00:07):
Yeah, rufus. Have you seen it?

Speaker 4 (01:00:10):
Yeah, I saw it back in the day.

Speaker 1 (01:00:13):
I really do think like Todd's Todd's storyline, if you will,
with Deanna was the sweetest part of that docu series.
When Todd is with Deanna in Vegas, people still recognize them.
They recognized Todd period. When they're together, they recognize them.
Todd's a fucking idiot because she loves him. So let's

(01:00:33):
just get that out of the way. But I will
say this and I and I think I think the showrunner,
Dave Check would agree with me. So I don't think
I'm talking out of school. But you know, like I
was sort of consulting with them before and I got
cracked in there and I got you know, that was
my contribution. But I think the real sort of fascinating
thing from that is overall was they had four characters

(01:00:56):
in there. The most prominent, I mean, most prominently remembered
is of course Vegas. Dave tout of all Touts and
their approach behind the scenes. Dave Checked the showrunner, Luke
the director, was you know, because I said them, I go,
are you sure you really want to include this? Guy
who's like the bottom of the barrel when it comes
to these touts, you don't want to do this, and

(01:01:16):
they go, no, don't worry, Gil, we show it. We
have it on we have it on film. How he
just absolutely is full of it and how he scams
people the way he does things, so it's obvious it's
going to be great, and it actually the game results
went our way, and so it really shows that. And
in the end what ended up happening was they were right.

(01:01:38):
They had it all there on screen, but just sort
of anecdotally, at least half the people who watched it
didn't walk away thinking, oh, yeah, look at this scam artist.
Half the people walked away were like because people are morons,
and they go, yeah, but he's got the house in
Cabo and he's got the car, you know, like that's how.
And so that was kind of the biggest thing I

(01:02:00):
remember from that docu series was that very strange.

Speaker 2 (01:02:05):
We'll get to know the sports as you well know
the sports, he said, all attention and good attention.

Speaker 4 (01:02:17):
Some people's philosophy on it, and.

Speaker 2 (01:02:21):
But let's be fair, sports gambler is not rufous. The
average sports gambler is not rufous. It's not even me
or Will. The average sports gambler is moron, okay. And
it's not even the beating the bod podcast uh listenership
that I would I would. I would submit that the
listenership to the show is much more intelligent than the

(01:02:44):
average problem. And I know this because I said in
sports books all the time and I talked to these people,
the average person that bets on sports is literally a moron. Okay.
Now some of them are slightly more intelligent than others,
but are really not that bright, okay. And you could
argue the same about me on some level as being

(01:03:06):
very like me, And you always say, Gilly, at least
were at least Stevie's smart enough to admit that the
market is better than that man. And on some on
some end, you know, I'm starting to believe that on
the end game too, because the end game is getting
so sophisticated that I'm not sure I can beat it
anymore at in games. So at least I have some
self awareness. But really, if you talk to the people
that bet on sports, normally, these are not MENSA members, Okay.

Speaker 3 (01:03:32):
I would sometimes at the book and sometimes the best
conversations are You're just a fly on the wall. The people,
the person you're right, the person you're left. Sometimes they're
you're putting the bet talking to their butt. This will
never Oh, he's definitely going to do this. You hear,
just sometimes I just want to record it. You hear
the funniest thing of these people putting in the beds.

Speaker 1 (01:03:50):
There was a there was supposed to be I don't
know what happened to it. I never found out, but
there was supposed to be an HBO documentary about sports betting,
and Crack got me into it. I believe it was
Crack who got me into it. I think so. And
I ended up spending one day at circle on a Saturday.
What was the game? What was the amazing Alabama college

(01:04:11):
football game this year? Was it against Georgia? Yeah, Georgia Alabama.
That day and the entire day I spent in between
a young lady in her twenties who's an influencer on Instagram,
a sports betting influencer, and then a guy, a young
brash guy on my left who claimed to be the

(01:04:33):
biggest sports better in the world. And so I basically
spent three hours listening to the bullshit and I just
thought to myself, I'm like, oh my god, this is
what this is, right, Like, I had to spend three
hours being like, yeah, that's not true, that's not true.
I'm like, I'm sure I'm great for this documentary, right,

(01:04:55):
because they're like remember the kick with Brandon Aubrey missed
in some game right before that. The young lady was convinced,
convinced that.

Speaker 3 (01:05:07):
Those are their favorite words. This is rigg, that's a lock.
I mean, they're so certain of everything.

Speaker 1 (01:05:11):
And I would say to her, I would be like,
so you think someone in Las Vegas, a person called
how does this work? They called the Cowboys sidelines, and
then they communicated in and she just happened. That's what happened.
And this guy claims that he's the biggest sports better
in the world, guy on my left, because all you
have to do is go against them, And I'm like, oh,

(01:05:34):
probably not that so, but anyway, to your point, Todd, right,
no matter how much those guys tried to make action,
like okay, at least people can see the scam. It's
this wasn't better right, which never saw the light of day.
I was like, oh my.

Speaker 3 (01:05:50):
God, oh they're not using it. For anything.

Speaker 1 (01:05:53):
Well, I don't know, we've never heard anything since.

Speaker 3 (01:05:55):
Yeah, I know, you must have not been very good
in it.

Speaker 1 (01:06:01):
I must have. It must have been like who's the uh,
who's the middle aged jew that we picked for this? Yeah? No, no.
But then I got to do like a testimonial, which
is actually cool. We went up to the suite and
actually I got to answer questions on camerage is solo
and that was great because I got to sort of
spell right. But like just the observation of that stuff.

(01:06:23):
What Todd is saying is absolutely right, where it's like
we can only have an impact to a certain degree,
but there's always a new generation. Like we can't possibly
stem the tide as much as we try. It's like
it's a noble cause, but you can't.

Speaker 2 (01:06:41):
And you can and you watch the people standing behind
the roulette table and and and you're just wondering, oh,
what are you doing? Well, this is you can't. This
is you're just throwing your money away. This is like
give me a dollar years back, ninety six cps. Here's
give me a dollar, give me ninety six. I mean people,
people just cannot grasp basic, basic ideas.

Speaker 3 (01:07:05):
I don't know there and that's and that's what the
public that would trade Luka Doncic for Anthony Davis and
not even get like a bunch of Oh wait, that
was the Mavericks GM I can with them.

Speaker 1 (01:07:15):
Well, let me just ad I don't know the answer
this question. I'm gona asked Rufus this for the first
time because I know I have this in my life.
I'm curious if you will or Todd does. But but
if Rufus has this, then that's this is the ultimate
mic drop. I have a person or maybe even two,
but I'm thinking of one person in my life. They
know what I do, right, They know I have a show.
They know this is all I do all day long,
is bet But I'm not what I couldn't care less

(01:07:42):
right knows everything. You can't tell him different. He's got
it all figured out. And I don't volunteer anything because
I don't assume he wants to know. You know, at
this point, I'm curious, Rufus, if you have If Rufus
has somebody like this in his life, then then you
know it's my sugar, do you.

Speaker 4 (01:07:58):
I mean, there's definitely people like that for sure. They
know what I do, And yeah, of.

Speaker 1 (01:08:04):
Course, now imagine Rufus has a friend like that, like Eta,
Rufus can't tell me shit. I mean, come on, it's ridiculous.

Speaker 4 (01:08:14):
People might be somebody else there or people percent of
the time, but not this time.

Speaker 1 (01:08:23):
Yeah, I just think, well, that's the other thing, right,
because the rare opportunities where you do. Let's I remember
having a friend come in town and then he had
his buddies. Oh that's gil what he thinks about this
one game, and of course it was wrong. They're like, oh,
you don't know shit about anything, right exactly. Yeah.

Speaker 2 (01:08:41):
By the way, we're adding a third green to the
roulette and some roulette things. I'm like, well, if just
up there, why not just have thirty nine greens and
one like number four or something like, and then that's
the only one. It's like, what is going It's it's
just it's it's hysterical.

Speaker 1 (01:09:01):
And it's not to end it on a serious note,
but this is what rufs and I only got to
like ninety seconds of the end of three segments on
this yesterday, but it does concern if we have one
moment of serious Like one of the most seriousness is
which since gambling has been legalized, right, it does concern
you that the wave is so great that problem gambling, right,

(01:09:22):
is just going to only become more and more because
everybody knows everything, and most of what you get is
bad input from people, and it's just it's just how
the cookie crumbles in this. So you can only try.
I mean, we try, We try to do our little
part in our corner of the world. But if Rufus
has somebody who don't care about Ruver says that says

(01:09:44):
it all to me, It's like, okay.

Speaker 4 (01:09:46):
But I don't think that's about problem gambling as much
as just I mean, I think the problem gambling is
more marketing and accessibility.

Speaker 1 (01:09:54):
Yes, I would, I would. I would say that that's
most of it. I'm saying they're all kind of related.
Maybe maybe I'm connecting to things.

Speaker 4 (01:10:01):
I think making dumb bets is what isn't being a
problem gambler, It's just being a recreational petter.

Speaker 1 (01:10:08):
Well. I think the predatory nature of books trying to
get rid of anybody who's successful, but actively actively trying
to get those who are wildly unsuccessful. We have stories
that Michael Lewis podcast touched on this. Yes, the guy

(01:10:29):
writing in Oh my god, I am losing too much money.
I need it. Oh no, no, no, no, you know,
don't by the way, don't don't email writing. Don't put
that in writing. I'll give you more promotions, I'll give
you more free play, right, Like that's fucked.

Speaker 4 (01:10:43):
So you know, literally saying we'll have to close your
account due to problem gambling if you put this in writing.
So just call us next time.

Speaker 1 (01:10:54):
Except can you imagine? Can you imagine? It's crazy?

Speaker 2 (01:10:58):
But that's probably what goes on in game aiming. If
you if you probably look behind the behind the curtain
of the average casino, right, what goes on there for
them to keep the I remember reading that book of
that guy what was that guy's name who used to
be on VSEN sometimes but he was like a host
for the for the west Gate or something, and the
stuff that they would do to keep the big players

(01:11:20):
to continue to play. I can't remember exactly, but it's
the same. You know, what is a casino really providing.
It's a it's a it's a sham, really, I mean,
especially in something that cannot be beat, right, what are
they really providing you? Oh? Recreation? Oh, what's the recreation
that I'm going to lose. It's like, it's kind of
the whole thing's kind of fucked up. If you want

(01:11:41):
to be completely fair about it, you know, what are
they providing you nothing? You know, it's a shamment, right, entertainment?

Speaker 3 (01:11:50):
Okay?

Speaker 2 (01:11:50):
So is that really entertaining though? Like what you would
never go to get? Okay? Well, then maybe I just
don't get it.

Speaker 4 (01:11:58):
Look, Jeff, Jeff maloves playing craps and he always wants
me to go play with him, and I'm always like, yeah,
I just don't really care that much about it because
I have to relearn the rules every time.

Speaker 1 (01:12:10):
It's too complicated, right, Todd, you love double stuffed oreos, So,
I mean, you know, we all have our thing. I
get it.

Speaker 2 (01:12:18):
Oh I don't. Personally, I don't love That's one thing
that I don't like. I wish all the food was
double stuffed oreos because then I.

Speaker 1 (01:12:24):
Be sent But yes, I'm sorry. I Losa's. You like
Teresa's white white chocolate pretzel ones.

Speaker 2 (01:12:29):
Well you know what was crazy about that Reese's thing?
I was obsessed with those. Now I won't even eat them.
It's unbelievable how your mind has has a mind of
its own and I couldn't stop eating those fucking Reese's pretzels,
and now I look at them and I don't even
want them. It's it's it's bizarre, world.

Speaker 1 (01:12:46):
Incredible, incredible, They're so good. All right, Well, I didn't
see it going this way, but maybe that's the uh
appropriate way to end it. I hope super Bowl fifty
nine is a is a profitable experience for all another
season that Todd Wisher is sixth on the megapod Todd
about to set records. Thank you, Todd, I appreciate it.

(01:13:11):
Very gratu And and Will Hill uh at the name
of the podcast for Will should have been more check
that out. And Rufus Peabody, who does this thing again?
Massy Peabody Analytics unabated is where is? I don't know?
Is that your primary gig?

Speaker 2 (01:13:32):
Now?

Speaker 1 (01:13:32):
I don't know what to say. And the Bet the
Process podcast with Jeff mob which is great too with
Michael Lewis and Mary gig has always been betting primary
gig is bet. I'm sorry, but.

Speaker 4 (01:13:42):
We're recording that the Process this afternoon with with Judah
fork Gang, gonna talk some super Bowl.

Speaker 1 (01:13:48):
You love Juda as a guest, right, you love Jesus.

Speaker 4 (01:13:51):
He's so good because he marries he marries the math
and the football knowledge really really well, and he's really
good with sort of the ash stuff and thinking about
the narratives and how the game can play out and
really constructing good s GPS from that.

Speaker 1 (01:14:08):
Who's your favorite guest of all time? Terrible? Michael Lewis,
Michael Lewis, and that's then you, Gil, then you. By
the way, I might have been Jeff Ma's least favorite.

Speaker 4 (01:14:22):
Everybody says that everybody thinks that they're his least favorite guest.
That's kind of the magic of Jeff. He was Asian, right,
maybe the anti magic.

Speaker 1 (01:14:32):
I don't know. I was not nearly heady enough for
the Bet the Process are audience. I was just like,
I think what we got down like a sports betting
broadcast rabbit, which is kind of my strike. So I
didn't think Jeff anyway. Bet the Process is where Rufus
does his thing. Good luck to everyone, Good luck to you.

(01:14:53):
We will do podcasts after this is just going to
take a couple of week breaks before we get back
to Indian Wells Tennis. We'll do of course, the NFL Draft,
the Masters and all that on the beating, the book feed,
so just that the megapot is it? Good luck with
super Bowl fifty nine and all of you.

Speaker 2 (01:15:07):
Maybe the NCAA tournament will do with me and Willie
pulling it out of our ass again.

Speaker 1 (01:15:12):
And the March Madness Pot of course, where will famously
had Fau in the final four and Todd called the finals. Hey,
that was amazing. Good luck with all your bets. Thanks
for listening, goodbody,

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