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February 1, 2024 13 mins

When the US borrows money, just like any borrower, it needs to pay its loans back with interest.

The national debt right now is $34 trillion and rising. Soon, America will need to spend more each year paying interest on the debt than it spends on national defense.

Phillip Swagel, director of the Congressional Budget Office, and Bloomberg reporter Liz McCormick join the Big Take DC to discuss the US government’s debt spiral, and what it would take to rein it in.

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Episode Transcript

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Speaker 1 (00:01):
The US government has a serious spending problem. It's thrown
money at military needs, roads digging out of the pandemic,
mostly using cash it doesn't have in the bank. Just
like the rest of us paying off a loan, the
government has to pay interest on what it borrows. Over
the past decade, those interest payments have crept up. They've

(00:23):
become a bigger and bigger slice of federal spending, and
soon America will need to spend more each year paying
off that debt interest than it spends on national defense.
I've asked my sources at Treasury, in Congress, and even
some historians. No one can think of us ever being
here before. Everyone agrees we have a problem, but what

(00:46):
no one can agree on is where the buck stops
to fix it. America's debt is spiraling out of control.
It's over thirty four trillion dollars right now, and if
it feels like every other month Congress is nearly avoiding
a government shutdown over spending, that's because it kind of is.

(01:08):
This week, we'll look at how we got here and
what it will take for Washington to fix it. From
Bloomberg's Washington Bureau. This is the Big Take DC Podcast
I'm your host, Seleijamerson. Borrowing money is not always a
bad thing. In seventeen ninety, Alexander Hamilton wrote that debt

(01:32):
was the price of liberty. In Lynn Manuel Miranda's musical
about Hamilton's life, you can hear the young Treasury secretary
pleading with the other founding fathers.

Speaker 2 (01:42):
If we are.

Speaker 3 (01:42):
Hums jumla a credit a financial.

Speaker 1 (01:46):
Tal you reddit without debt, He rap argues, the US
couldn't fund the fight to become an independent nation.

Speaker 2 (01:53):
We needed money and guns in half a chance who
provided those funds?

Speaker 1 (01:57):
So the US has really leaned into debt, so much
so that the last time the country has zero debt
was in eighteen thirty five. That's because each year the
US creates a massive budget. It's money that keeps the
economy moving, even when faced with challenges like a once
in a lifetime pandemic. But when the federal government wants

(02:18):
to spend more than it's bringing in through taxes and
other revenue, it has to borrow from other countries and
the private sector. That gap between our money in and
our money out is called a deficit.

Speaker 4 (02:30):
Good think about it for your household. If everything I
owe is bigger than the assets I have. I'm in
a deficit.

Speaker 1 (02:37):
My colleague Liz McCormick and I have spent a lot
of time talking about the deficit. She's a chief correspondent
at Bloomberg covering debt and currency markets.

Speaker 4 (02:45):
So for the US, all the net revenues they're taking
in after they pay out all their expenses, they're in
the red.

Speaker 1 (02:51):
Unlike a household spending more than it's bringing in. It's
okay for the US government to live its life in
the red.

Speaker 4 (02:58):
We have the global what they call reserve currency, meaning
many things are priced in US dollars. It gives us
this kind of special status. No one quite thinks the
US is going to kind of really default.

Speaker 3 (03:11):
On their data.

Speaker 1 (03:12):
In other words, people trust that the US will pay
back its loans eventually, and they trust so deeply that
it's good for its dollar that they rely on it
as the backbone of the global economy. That's one reason
why America can run up such a high bill. But
lenders still want something in exchange for buying US debt.

Speaker 4 (03:31):
There's no free lunch, so they're saying, yeah, hear, US
Treasury take our money. We like you take it, but
give me something every month because I'm kind of putting
my money to you and I can't use it right,
so please give me some what we call interests.

Speaker 1 (03:45):
So when the government wants to fund a program, say
a new part for medicare, building a bridge, or helping
allies like Israel or Ukraine, even if we don't have
that money set aside, we can borrow it at a
very low cost to taxpayers. That's helped get out of
some really sticky situations. You may recall what newscasters and

(04:05):
headlines sounded like during the financial crisis.

Speaker 4 (04:08):
Three of the five biggest independent firms on Wall Street
have now disappeared.

Speaker 1 (04:13):
Wherey investors now wonder how the markets will recover from
billions of dollars of bad mortgage debts, frozen credit markets,
banks afraid to lend.

Speaker 3 (04:21):
We are in the midst of a serious financial crisis.

Speaker 1 (04:24):
That last clip was President George W. Bush speaking in
two thousand and eight, when the government used spending to
prop up a flailing economy, but that came with a
price tag of hundreds of billions of dollars. The federal
deficit nearly tripled from what it had been before the crisis.

Speaker 2 (04:40):
Now every family knows a little credit card debt is manageable.

Speaker 1 (04:44):
That's President Barack Obama speaking in twenty eleven.

Speaker 2 (04:47):
But if we stay on the current path, our growing
debt could cost us jobs and do serious damage to
the economy. More of our tax dollars will go toward
paying off the interest on our loans. Businesses will be
less likely to open up shop and hire workers. In
a country that can't balance its books, interest rates could
climb for everyone who borrows money.

Speaker 1 (05:09):
In twenty thirteen, US debts are passed the country's GDP.
When President Donald Trump took office, he worked with Congress
to cut taxes as a way to help grow the economy.
Those tax cuts will add an estimated two and a
half trillion dollars to the nation's deficit in the next
decade or so. And then COVID hit and lawmakers were

(05:30):
desperate to keep the economy afloat.

Speaker 3 (05:32):
First, those stimulus checks up to fourteen hundred dollars for
about ninety percent of households.

Speaker 1 (05:38):
Were making sure that small businesses have access to loans
for their fixed.

Speaker 3 (05:42):
Costs, and expanded unemployment insurance.

Speaker 4 (05:45):
During the pandemic, even as are borrowing shot up as
it kind of should in a crisis. We didn't want,
you know, companies and people to personally fail and not
be able to fund their life, so there was a
lot of fiscal support. The FED was cutting rates down
to zero.

Speaker 1 (06:03):
Let's recap to keep the economy from creatoring the government's spent.
And then the Federal Reserve said, let's make it really
easy for people to borrow even more so that they
keep spending. So the FED slashed interest rates, making it
cheaper to take on debt.

Speaker 4 (06:18):
But that's all been turned on its head now because
because of inflation, the Fed has had to lift rates
to like a twenty two year high.

Speaker 1 (06:25):
That twenty two year high is a shock to the
economy right now. People and companies have gotten so used
to low interest rates that now everyone's adjusting to how
much more they have to pay for everything from car
loans to mortgages. And higher rates are hurting the governments
while at too.

Speaker 4 (06:42):
And that's made the Treasury, every time they pay interest semiannually,
pay a lot higher interests. I mean, our interest expense
is almost the amount of you know what we're paying
for big other categories like defense.

Speaker 1 (07:00):
In twenty twenty three, the cost of just paying off.
The interest on US debt reached a trillion dollars coming up.
As the US debt continues to climb, what's the growing
cost to taxpayers? The US debt has been climbing for decades,
but to understand why experts think now is different, I

(07:23):
wanted to talk to someone who's seen how the budget
is handled from the inside. So I sat down with
Philip Swagel. He's the director of the Congressional Budget Office
or CBO. It's a non part as an agency funded
by Congress.

Speaker 3 (07:37):
We provide the Congress with budget analysis and economic analysis.
We would never say to a member of Congress, your
bill is the right thing or the wrong thing. We
just provide analysis.

Speaker 1 (07:48):
If you're following news coverage of a proposed law, you've
probably heard CBO's estimate for how much that legislation will
affect the national debt.

Speaker 4 (07:56):
The Congressional Budget Office released their ten year baseline for
farm bill spending. The Congressional Budget Office estimates these changes
could cost more than ninety billion dollars over the next
two years.

Speaker 1 (08:09):
Swegel told me that there are two main reasons we
should care that the government can't get its debt under control. First,
it means that we have to spend money paying off interest,
as in managing the debt load, instead of using that
money for programs that actually help people. And second, it's
only going to get worse when.

Speaker 3 (08:29):
We have higher interest rates, more debt, we pay more
in interest, and then that builds back into the debt,
which leads to yet higher debt and higher interest payments.

Speaker 1 (08:39):
So it's a spiral.

Speaker 3 (08:41):
We are in a spiral. Now, it's a slow spiral,
but it's still a spiral of rising debt and rising
payments on the debt. The situation is unsustainable.

Speaker 1 (08:53):
Just this week, Nassim Nicholas Teleb, a former option strader
who wrote a book about unpredictable events called The Black
swam On, told a hedge fund that he advises that
a debt spiral is like a death spiral. He's not
the only one with eyes on the economy who's been
raising alarm bells. A few weeks ago, Robert Rubin, the
former Treasury secretary, put it bluntly on Bloomberg TV. No,

(09:15):
I think we're in a terrible place. And this is
all while the US has had some of the cheapest
interest rates of any country in the world. That's because
America has a solid record of paying back its loans,
so other countries cut a sweet deal when they loan money.
But that could all change. If the US keeps borrowing
from other countries and racking up a high bill and

(09:37):
continues to squabble over paying its debt, the country and
the US dollar could lose its favorite status. It's not
enough to avoid a default. Just the fighting is hurting
the country. It's like when parents fight and threaten to
divorce but don't. Just because they stay together doesn't mean
the fights don't cause damage. Our only hope for a

(10:00):
way out of this debt spiral is for Congress to
balance the budget, but that requires some hard decisions about
where to cut spending in Congress is famously deadlocked.

Speaker 4 (10:10):
I don't want to be too pessimistic, but I just
don't see the political will down in Washington right now
to change their tune. We can't seem to work across
the aisle and get these agreements that would work to
put us at least on a trajectory where the deficit
should be getting better.

Speaker 1 (10:27):
Right Even passing a basic spending bill has turned into
a high wire act, haunted by regular government shutdown threats,
So getting through any serious cuts is going to be hard.

Speaker 3 (10:38):
The challenge is that at any moment, we don't have
to take action, right.

Speaker 1 (10:46):
So it's hard to imagine folks in governments suddenly getting
inspired to take action. But there is at least one
example of a time when it got its act together.
Swegel says that back in the nineties, people thought that
the US might fully pay off its debt, and they
were worried about that.

Speaker 3 (11:03):
And that's because of the privileged place of treasury securities.
The treasury debt has an important role in the global economy.
A treasury bond is an asset for the private sector
that is seen as safe and seen as liquid, and
so if investors want an asset with those characteristics, the
ability to buy and sell treasury bonds is important to

(11:23):
financial markets.

Speaker 1 (11:25):
That fiscal responsibility didn't happen by accident. It essentially took
investors bullying President Bill Clinton's administration. Here's how that went.
Investors were against the government's unsustainable spending, so they revolted.
They started dumping their treasury bonds, and when those bonds
flooded the market, they appeared a whole lot riskier. It

(11:46):
was your basic laws of supply and demand at play.
When treasures are seen as even a tiny bit riskier,
buyers demand a higher return on their investment, kind of
like how your home insurance costs more if you live
in a flood zone. To recap, investors sold off treasuries,
which drove prices lower, but that drove up the amount
buyers demanded in exchange for each bond. That made it

(12:10):
more expensive for the government to borrow, and treasuries guide
the interest rate for all sorts of debt like home
mortgages and other consumer obligations. So all of a sudden,
you've got the makings of an economic slowdown, which is
every elected leader's nightmare.

Speaker 4 (12:26):
Back in the Clinton days, you know, James Carville, his advisor,
always joked, like, I thought I'd want to come back
as what do you say, like a great baseball player
or the pope or something. And then he's like, I
want to come back as the bond market. Because Clinton
wanted to do all the spending and bond yields just
one crazy.

Speaker 1 (12:42):
Clinton was forced to change his whole economic agenda just
to keep investors happy and prevent an economic crisis. Back
in the nineties, debt interest wasn't skyrocketing like it is today,
so it's a bit of an Apple's to Walnuts comparison.
But it's possible that the same kind of pressure from
markets could help.

Speaker 4 (13:00):
Now. Maybe if bon Yeals just keep going and going
in this situation gets worse and worse, maybe somebody gets
religion and says we need to do something. But I
think it's going to take a lot.

Speaker 1 (13:14):
Thanks for listening to The Big Take DC podcast from
Bloomberg News. I'm Salaia Mosen. This episode was produced by
Julia Press and Naomi Shaven. It was fact checked by
Stacy Rede. Alex Sugia and Blake Maples are mix engineers.
Our story editors are Caitlin Kenny, Wendy Benjaminson, and Michael Shephard.
Nicole Beemsterbower is our executive producer. Sage Bauman is our

(13:37):
head of podcasts. If you like what you heard, please
be sure to subscribe, rate, and review the show. It'll
help other listeners find us. Thanks for tuning in. I'll
be back next week.
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