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May 9, 2024 14 mins

The National Weather Service is predicting that vast swaths of the US will see above-average temperatures this summer. That’s weighing on the wallets of small businesses across the country, who already operate on thin profit margins.

On today’s Big Take podcast, DC host Saleha Mohsin does the math on this economic hit, hears from business owners trying to weather it, and unpacks what the government could do about it with Bloomberg economics reporter Catarina Saraiva.

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Speaker 1 (00:03):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

Speaker 2 (00:09):
Cape Elizabeth is a beach town near Portland, Maine. It
has what you'd expect from a New England summer destination,
a lighthouse, a fruit farm, and a watering hole near
the beach, kettle cove, ice cream and shack.

Speaker 3 (00:22):
We may come made ice cream and on the other
half of our building we do like lobster rolls fry clans,
so we cater to the tourists in the locals for
the summer.

Speaker 2 (00:34):
That's Michael Concannon. He owns that spot, which locals call
the Shack. In a typical year, business is good for
an ice cream and lobster roll shop in Maine, where
summer temperatures average around seventy degrees. But this summer, Cape
Elizabeth is one of the many places that the National
Weather Service is predicting to exceed normal temperatures. Michael says

(00:56):
he's trying to get ahead of it by installing heat
pumps to pull cooler air into the one hundred year
old building where the shock is located.

Speaker 3 (01:02):
But they are expensive, so you know, for us to
do it, we'll need three basically keep pump heads for
my building and that will add twenty five thousand dollars
that I was hoping not to spend this summer, but
I am going to.

Speaker 2 (01:20):
That's not to mention skyrocketing electric bills. He says his
costs can go from twelve hundred dollars in a typical
summer month to as high as two thousand dollars when
it's especially hot and all that warming it's hitting his
supply too. Temperatures in the Gulf of Maine just keep climbing.
That means there's fewer lobsters available, pushing prices up.

Speaker 3 (01:42):
Lobsterols are really expensive anyways, but you know, say in
the summer, they're being twenty three twenty four dollars a
lobster roll, and then all of a sudden it shoos
up to forty. Most people skip the lobsterl cape.

Speaker 2 (01:58):
Elizabeth's small business owners aren't alone in navigating the financial
impact of a warmer planet. More than half the US
is predicted to see above average temperatures this summer, and
Bloomberg reporter Katerina Sireva says that the heat could take
a serious toll on many small businesses, which already operate
on thin margins. Small businesses we know employee about fifty

(02:20):
percent of the US workforce. They're a huge part of
the economy, right, so anything that impacts them adversely like
these weather conditions is a problem and a big problem
for our wider economy. For meteorologists, summer starts June first,
and a government report is predicting extreme heat and places

(02:42):
that aren't used to it, like Portland, Maine, and Spokane, Washington,
and in places that can't afford to get any hotter,
like Houston, Texas. Today on the show, we talk with
economic analysts crunching the numbers and small business owners across
the country who are feeling the squeeze of hotter, and
we examine what solutions, if any, the government might be

(03:04):
able to offer. From Bloomberg's Washington bureau, this is a
Big Take DC podcast. I'm your host, Sleia Mosen. Katerina
Sarareeva is a Bloomberg Economics reporter based in Houston. Summers
there are always hot, still, last year was different.

Speaker 4 (03:25):
We're used to temperatures in the nineties and high humidity here, right,
that's normal, But when you just have days on end
where it's one hundred and ten degrees, it's really tough.
Because I mean, what do you do? You can't really
go outside.

Speaker 2 (03:40):
Last June, a high pressure system known as a heat
dome trapped warm air over the city and kept temperatures high.
Texas is power grid buckled under a record demand for electricity.
State and local governments placed millions of people under extreme
heat advisories. It was life threatening weather and.

Speaker 4 (03:58):
That just continued into July and August. It's just miserable.
No one enjoys it.

Speaker 2 (04:04):
So how did you cope with it?

Speaker 4 (04:06):
So we stayed inside a lot. When I walked by
restaurants or stores, I mean, you just didn't see people
inside because I think people weren't doing that. They weren't
walking to these local small businesses.

Speaker 5 (04:21):
Nobody was looking for a reason to be outside during
this time period.

Speaker 2 (04:24):
That's Ray Perryman. He runs an economic research firm out
of Waco, Texas. Last year, his firm tried to put
numbers to just how bad these small businesses across Texas
were hurt by the heat.

Speaker 5 (04:36):
One thing that struck me on that one was the
sheer magnitude of it. Because the thing we found with
regard to the major heat wave that occurred in twenty
twenty three was that on the whole, there were net
losses to the stead economy of about nine point five
billion dollars as a results of this.

Speaker 2 (04:52):
That's not easy to recover from. On a local level,
Katarina's already seen some businesses closing their doors.

Speaker 4 (04:59):
There were this below restaurant and my neighborhood that closed
after many years in operation.

Speaker 2 (05:04):
You know, the owner talked about it just being.

Speaker 4 (05:07):
More difficult to operate right now, the cost of food
and labor rising, but then also hot temperatures putting a
dent in your revenue.

Speaker 2 (05:16):
But the impact is not just local, Katerina told me,
a hit to the Texas economy is a hit for
the rest of the country too.

Speaker 4 (05:25):
Texas is obviously a huge state. It accounts for ten
percent of the national GDP, We account for twenty two
percent of all US exports, so anything that's going on
here obviously impacts the country more broadly as well.

Speaker 2 (05:39):
There are three point two million small businesses in Texas.
Emily Kerr, an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas,
dug into how last summer's extreme heat impacted businesses across
the state.

Speaker 1 (05:52):
When this summer heat wave happened, we reached out to
this group of over four hundred Texas businesses and posed
to them the question, you know, did the summer heat
wave have any impact on your business? And nearly a
quarter of them said that it had a negative impact
on either their production if they were a manufacturer, or
their revenue if they were a services firm.

Speaker 2 (06:11):
For restaurants and stores, that downturn was largely driven by
lower foot traffic. In fact, a Houston restaurant noted that
it was the worst from a customer traffic standpoint than
they'd experienced since they opened in nineteen sixty seven. For
manufacturers producing things like food and electronics, it wasn't demand
that took the hit.

Speaker 1 (06:29):
Their lost revenue came from lower productivity, lower labor productivity,
temperature sensitive work sites, and so these manufacturing companies were
having to give workers more breaks, you know, provide a
lot more water, maybe pull back from outside, and sort
of exertion roles whenever it was so hot.

Speaker 2 (06:47):
On top of bringing in less money, small businesses are
also spending more cranking their acs just like the rest
of us, and dealing with surging electricity costs. Last summer
in Texas, the price of electric tricity, by some measures,
spiked four times. The state is in a unique position
because it has its own power grid. That means there's

(07:08):
no way to supplement it with power from the rest
of the country when the state's electricity demand suddenly shoots up.
In twenty twenty three, electricity demand in Texas went above
eighty thousand megawats an hour for the first time, and
not just once. It happened forty two times. Just look
at Houston. The temperature there hit one hundred degrees or

(07:29):
higher for forty five days.

Speaker 4 (07:32):
So what happens is that the grid regulator asks us
to reduce our use of electricity.

Speaker 2 (07:38):
Bloomberg's Katerina Sarareva.

Speaker 4 (07:40):
Again, without electricity, you can't do anything. So if your
electricity gets cut because we're having rolling blackouts because the
grid is overwhelmed, or total blackouts where you don't have
electricity for a few days, it has huge ramifications on
your production capabilities.

Speaker 2 (07:58):
Katerina says, the city of Houston has taken steps to
mitigate the negative effects of the heat.

Speaker 4 (08:04):
So, for example, the city has embarked on a big
initiative to try to plant more trees, not just for
absorbing carbon but for providing that shade, that really is
a big relief.

Speaker 2 (08:16):
They also turned city libraries into cooling centers on the
weekends and encourage residents to stay indoors. But a lot
of the steps required to make businesses more resilient to
extreme heat or landing on the plates of individual business owners,
and this year's first heat wave is already underway in
Texas and is expected to spread to the southeast. After

(08:39):
the break. We hear about how small businesses around the
country have tried to respond to rising temperatures and what
local and federal government could do to help them survive
these challenges. Part of being a small business owner is

(08:59):
rolling with the punch.

Speaker 1 (09:00):
I think a lot of these companies, especially after last summer,
are coming up with ways to adapt.

Speaker 2 (09:05):
That's Emily Kerr from the Dallas Fed.

Speaker 1 (09:07):
Adding more shade as an example of you know, whether
it's a theme park or a restaurant that has that
door seating. Small businesses especially are incredibly resilient and have
found ways to pivot their business model, adapt to a
changing environment and find ways to get through.

Speaker 2 (09:24):
At Palmer Lane Maple in Jericho, Vermont, Colleen Palmer sells
a local summer staple maple flavored soft.

Speaker 6 (09:30):
Serve that in Vermont we affectionately call creamies.

Speaker 2 (09:35):
Generally, summer heat is good for the ice cream business,
but not if the temperature gets too high.

Speaker 6 (09:40):
If it hits like mid nineties, it's too hot. Nope,
vermont rous will stay home.

Speaker 2 (09:47):
Ninety degrees in Vermont isn't ninety degrees in Houston. Vermont
typically sees summer highs around eighty degrees. Most buildings don't
even have central air conditioning. People aren't used to extreme heat.
Colleen and says that means she needs to stay nimble.

Speaker 6 (10:02):
We watch the weather religiously to know how to plan.
How many staff do I need that day, how much
mix do I need to order for the week. We
may find that it's going to be really slow in
the afternoon because that's the hottest part, but the evening
people will come out because it's cool down a little bit.
So we really just kind of adjust based on the weather.

Speaker 2 (10:24):
But as Bloomberg' Katerina s Airava says, sometimes being able
to adapt requires upfront investment.

Speaker 4 (10:30):
For restaurants, it's putting in big fans on the patios,
water misters, things like that. That if you had a
state program that might help subsidize some of that, right,
cover some of those costs of installing those things.

Speaker 2 (10:45):
The government recognizes this and it's trying to support these businesses.
The Small Business Administration offers a program that allows companies
who have suffered from weather disasters to apply for loans.

Speaker 4 (10:56):
So these are loans that have a lower interest rate
than normal that businesses can taped to kind of try
to mitigate some of these losses in revenue.

Speaker 2 (11:06):
Think about it like the mom and pop loans from
the height of COVID, only this time it's not a
pandemic that's threatening business, it's the heat. But not everyone
can access these loans. You have to meet certain criteria
and the government needs to declare a disaster in your state.
And for some businesses, even a low interest loan wouldn't
be a quick fix. Brad Ervic ownes cherry shack orchard

(11:30):
pick your own fruit farm near Spokane, Washington. The Pacific
Northwest isn't a region known for extreme heat, but that's changing.

Speaker 7 (11:38):
We've been doing it for seventeen years and when we
started out, you know, you just have the normal summer
heat and go away. Now it just seems to be
very dry and high heat for almost all summer, like
one hundred and five for many days in a row.

Speaker 2 (11:55):
Brad says that keeps customers from coming out to pick fruit.

Speaker 7 (11:59):
It's not like I want to go outside and pick
the fruit. And of course you have the.

Speaker 2 (12:04):
Fires, wildfires in the Pacific Northwest.

Speaker 7 (12:07):
That's probably the biggest impact is the smoke for people
coming out, it's horrible. I mean there's times that you
can't see probably forty feet in Coronium.

Speaker 2 (12:19):
All this unpredictable weather, it's bad for crops.

Speaker 7 (12:22):
Well, we lost all our peaches and probably half the cherries.

Speaker 2 (12:28):
That's because this winter was unseasonably warm. Then a cold
snap came in and killed a lot of Brod's fruit,
which raises the question how do you begin to recoup
that kind of loss.

Speaker 7 (12:39):
You don't there's no recooping.

Speaker 2 (12:44):
Brod says that he thinks the government could be doing
more to help out small business owners like him. He
hopes he'll be able to make up for his losses
with a busy fall season. They have a pumpkin patch
and a good apple crop, but Brod says that it's
not clear what will happen if temperatures just keep climbing
year after year.

Speaker 7 (13:02):
I don't know, it's a question that's looming.

Speaker 2 (13:07):
I guess the Small Business Administration's loan program is a start,
but it's worth noting that during COVID they offered the
option to apply for loan forgiveness, as in money that
didn't need to be paid back that is not available
for weather related events.

Speaker 4 (13:22):
Howwether it might not be something that we traditionally have
thought about as something that can weigh on the economy,
but it's becoming a parent in these last few years
that it is a major component of what's going on economically.

Speaker 2 (13:42):
Thanks for listening to The Big Take DC podcast from
Bloomberg News. I'm Salaia Mosen. This episode was produced by
Julia Press. It was mixed by Blake Maples, fact checked
by Audriana Tapia, and edited by Aaron Edwards and Wendy Benjaminson,
who also provides editorial direction with Elizabeth Ponso. Naomi Shaban
is our senior producer, Nicole Beemster bow Or is our

(14:03):
executive producer, and Sage Bauman is Bloomberg's head of Podcasts.
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