November 3, 2025 • 16 mins
Your morning briefing, the business news you need in just 15 minutes.
On today's podcast:
(1) Oil advanced a fourth day after OPEC+ said it planned to pause output increases in the first quarter of 2026, following another modest hike for next month.
(2) A railway staff member who "saved many people's lives" while protecting train passengers from a knifeman is in a life-threatening condition in hospital.
(3) An exit charge for wealthy Britons leaving the country and increased levies on expensive homes are on a long-list of possible tax increases being considered by Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves ahead of the budget.
(4) President Donald Trump threatened possible US military action against Islamist militants in Nigeria if the country’s government doesn’t halt the groups’ “killing of Christians.”
(5) China will effectively suspend implementation of additional export controls on rare-earth metals and terminate investigations targeting US companies in the semiconductor supply chain, the White House announced.
Podcast Conversation: 'The Great British Bake Off' Is a Great British Betting Zone
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:02):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Blue
Big Day. Bake you at podcast KI Morning. It's Monday,
the third of November. I'm Caroline Hepkot in London.
Speaker 2 (00:15):
And I'm Stephen Carolin Brussels. Coming up today. Oil prices
rise as OPEC Plus announces plans to pause output increases
for the start of next year.
Speaker 1 (00:24):
The UK's Chancellor, Rachel Reeves considers a range of tax
hikes targeting the country's wealthiest.
Speaker 2 (00:31):
Plus how China's efforts to unlock a huge African iron
ore deposit risk upending the global market.
Speaker 1 (00:39):
Let's start with a roundup of our top stories.
Speaker 2 (00:41):
The price of oil has risen for a fourth day
after OPEK Plus announced plans to pause output increases at
the start of next year. The group and its allies
say they'll raise production by about one hundred and thirty
seven thousand barrels a day in December before taking a
break from January to March. The move comes as market
contends with growing concerns about oversupply that have driven the
(01:04):
price of brand down by around ten percent over the
past three months. Here's the view of vandanah Hari, a
Vander Insights.
Speaker 3 (01:12):
We are probably in an oversupply situation, but how much
over supply, I think the jury is still out on that.
And on the flip side, you have supply risk premium.
We just come back in a major way into the
market after the US and EU sanctions on Russia a
couple of weeks.
Speaker 2 (01:30):
Ago, Vandana Harry referring there to sanctions on Russian oil exporters.
As traders tell Bloomberg, the restrictions are now prompting Chinese
refiners to avoid shipments from the country.
Speaker 1 (01:42):
Here in the UK, a thirty two year old man
is being held on suspicion of attempted murder after a
mass stabbing attack on a train over the weekend. The
attack happens on a high speed service from Doncaster to London,
leaving eleven people in hospital and some with life threatening injuries.
The train was stopped at Huntington in Cambridgeshire. Audrey McAdam
(02:04):
is the town's mayor.
Speaker 4 (02:05):
This is just out of my mind. I'm totally out
of it at the moment. I'm sorry. I'm sorry to
say I cannot think straight at the moment. It's something.
It's a horror film, complete horror.
Speaker 1 (02:17):
Audrey McAdam speaking there as Police say that the motive
for the attack remains unclear. Authorities say there is nothing
to suggest it was terrorism related.
Speaker 2 (02:28):
The Chancellor of Rachel Reeves could target the country's wealthiest
with exit and mansion taxes in her upcoming budget. The
measures are on a long list of possible options being
considered by the Treasury to fill the fiscal hole. AR
Chief UK economist Dan Hansen says the Chancellor faces a
challenging outlook.
Speaker 5 (02:47):
I think Rachel Reeves listening to her her rhetoric around
this budget. She's very conscious of the inflation story now
and I think probably in hindsight, wouldn't have gone through
with some of the policies she went through in October
last year in the budget last year because there has
been an inflationary impact.
Speaker 2 (03:05):
Bloomberg's chief UK economist Dan Hansen there Bloomberg understands that
the Chancellor will only decide which tax risers to implement
once she receives the final fiscal forecast from the Budget watchdog.
The Bank of England is expected to hold interest rates
at four percent on Thursday, slowing the pace of policy
easing that it began last August.
Speaker 1 (03:27):
Now US President Donald Trump has threatened military action against
Islamist extremists in Nigeria. In a post to his Truth
social platform on Saturday, Trump also threatened an immediate cutoff
in aid to Africa's most populous nation. The move comes
after the US present said that he was designating Nigeria
a Country of Particular Concern because of worries about the
(03:50):
safety of Christians. This was last week. Nigerian President to
Bolah Ahmed Tinubu rejected President Trump's criticism, saying on social
media the country is a democracy governed by constitutional guarantees
of religious liberty. Tinubu has been under pressure this year
from a rising Islamist insurgency in northeastern Nigeria.
Speaker 2 (04:13):
China will effectively suspend the implementation of new export controls
on rare earth metals and end investigations into American companies
in the semiconductor's supply chain. The White House issued a
fact sheet over the weekend with some details of the
trade pack degreed last week by Presidents Donald Trump and Chootingping.
Speaker 3 (04:33):
Both.
Speaker 2 (04:33):
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant has warned that Washington must
still be cautious.
Speaker 6 (04:38):
I think and I hope after the agreement and the
good will between President She and President Trump in Korea
that we can depend on them to be more reliable partners,
and the rest of the world can depend on them,
but we can't take their chance. We don't want to
decouple with China, but we're going to have to.
Speaker 2 (04:57):
Do risk, the US Treasury Secretary Scott Besslon speaking there. Meanwhile,
China's manufacturing activity expanded less than forecast in October, according
to a private survey, adding to concerns about the economy's
slowing momentum.
Speaker 1 (05:13):
Now to European companies, which are proving surprisingly resilient, with
their results showing that they're navigating US tariffs a lot
better than anticipated. Bloomberg's Mihul Kubala has more Now.
Speaker 7 (05:26):
It turns out tariffs aren't biting European exporters as hard
as many feared. A Goldman Sachs basket of stocks most
exposed to the American levies, names like BMW Ordidas jumped
six percent in October, double that of the broader stocks
six hundred. Some firms, including Hermez and Unilever, even credited
(05:49):
sales growth in the United States for their ability to
beat estimates the optimism is showing up in forecasts. Bloomberg
Intelligence data shows earnings on u ro's key benchmark could
grow by double digits next year. In Brussels, Michalcobola, Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 2 (06:07):
And simbreaking earnings news this morning. Profits at Ryanair beat
expectations in their second quarter after tax figures came in
at one point seven two billion euros versus expectations of
one point sixty seven billion euros. Passenger numbers for the
first half of the year we're broadly in line with
expectations at one hundred and nineteen million. Ryaner now sees
its fully aar customer numbers at two hundred and seven million.
(06:29):
That's an increase from its last forecast of two hundred
and six million, slightly above what markets were expecting.
Speaker 1 (06:37):
And those are our top stories for you this morning. Well,
November in the market begins with some gains for stocks.
We have the All country World Index up by tenth
of one percent. We've also got stock futures for Europe
up two tens and US stock futures also pointing higher.
Oil has been gaining a six tens of one percent
half of break creed futures at sixty five dollars eighteen
(06:57):
the bow after the OPEC plus decision over the weekend.
US yields are steady this morning at four sports zero
seven For the ten year. Gold has been fluctuating, but
currently it is up by three tenths of one percent.
Iron ore and copper are down on concerns about China's
economic outlook, and the dollar this morning on the Bloemboog
(07:17):
Dollar Sport Index is weaker a tenth of one percent.
Those are the markets.
Speaker 2 (07:22):
In a moment will bring you more on OPEC plus's
latest moves on oil supplies, plus what a massive new
iron ore mine in Guinea means for the global market
and for the country's economy. But another story that we've
been reading this morning the season finale of The Great
British Breakoff as tomorrow in case you didn't have it
already marked in your diaries, and our colleague Georgia Hall
has been writing about one of the many side industries
(07:45):
that have sprung up around this TV show, and that's betting.
She writes about the vast and potentially lucrative online betting
market that exists around the series. Apparently there you can
get odds and everything from who will get a handshake
from Paul Hollywood one of the judges, who will win
the technical challenge, and of course who's going to win
(08:05):
the overall show at the end as well. Apparently there's
been quite a shift in odds as the series goes on.
Speaker 1 (08:13):
I love cake, don't get me wrong, but I'm quite
amused by this ballooning betting story that seems a bit
sort of harder to swallow. I wonder who is it
out there who's betting on cake baking. I don't know.
I always am a little more concerned about in the
UK just how many people are betting. The big survey
(08:34):
that came out earlier this month of betting a lot
of people two point seven percent of people in the
UK have got a betting problem apparently. But anyway, cake
is perhaps a more fun side to betting, maybe, yeah.
Speaker 2 (08:45):
I mean, look, it's the difference as well with this
market which is only growing in the US because of
course betting markets have only opened up in recent years
as well. So it's very interesting to watch it. It's
playing it in different sides of the Atlantic as well.
Quite a problem betting on this program because it's pre
recorded as well, so people could have insider knowledge as
to who has actually won, but it is being seen
as sort of a community building around a Matchlove TV
(09:08):
show as well as he can rejoin his peace at
Bloomberg dot com and we'll put a Linkdage in our
podcast show notes.
Speaker 1 (09:14):
Okay, let's talk about the oil markets. They face a
great deal of uncertainty. Crude prices have been falling this
year and on paper, there is expected to be a
big supply glot next year. So on Sunday, Plus said
that it plans to pause increases in output from its
members for the first quarter of next year. Stephen Stepchinski
leads our team covering energy in Asian He joins us
(09:35):
now for more. Stephen, good morning. What is OPEC's strategy
because there is usually a gap between the quotas what
they say they're going to do and then what is
actually produced.
Speaker 8 (09:46):
No, that's correct, Actually, so the OPEC Plus has been
increasing output for much of this year, actually more than
the market was expecting them to in terms of what
they're saying on paper. Now, you're right, in reality, they're
not always hitting those targets. Some country are struggling to
increase their output to hit that level. In fact, one
of the few countries that can actually really meaningfully increase
(10:07):
output and has a lot of spare capacity is Saudi Arabia,
the de facto leader of OPEK itself. Now, in terms
of what happened with this meeting, I think one thing
is is Russia. Russia is a member of OPEK plus,
and just recently we had the Trump administration slap sanctions
on two of the largest exporters that was ross neftin
(10:28):
look oil, and then we have the stories from last
week and then this week about Indian buyers and Chinese
buyers who traditionally were buying Russian oil. They're they're looking
at perhaps shifting their supply away from the sanctioned barrels
in order to avoid any sort of hit from from
the West or from the US for importing uh that oil.
(10:51):
And so because of that, it is likely seen that
maybe Russia in the OPEK plus meetings had pushed for
a pause because they're unable to increase their output, especially
if at the moment buyers are kind of scrambling to
move elsewhere. Now this could be digested, Maybe there will
be more dark fleet ships taking that supply, Maybe other
(11:11):
refineries will be willing to risk retaliation from the West.
But at the moment, I think it does make sense
that OPEK plus would would move for a weight and
see situation, especially since, as you know, when you look
at the macro situation for oil, we are facing a
bit of a glot for twenty twenty six.
Speaker 7 (11:28):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (11:29):
Indeed, there's several of those dynamics courses you say playing
out in the market too. There is a meating coming
up though, between Donald Trump and the Saudi crime friends
Muhammed Ben Salmon as well. What could emerge from that
that might be of interest to the oil markets.
Speaker 8 (11:42):
Well, certainly if you can see some sort of OPEK
movement to increase output or anything there would be would
be quite interesting. Now, of course, it's it's really unlikely
that that could happen because you had these OPEK plus
pause and they are working in unison. That being said,
you know you could see some broad general statements from
(12:03):
both sides saying that they're working to really balance the market.
I think when you look at what Trump wants, certainly
he wants low gasoline prices. He doesn't want to shake
up the market, and while the movement to sanctioned Russia
has to put pressure on Moscow to end the war
in Ukraine. He also doesn't want a surge an oil
(12:26):
prices because that will hurt his base. He I think
Trump is really looking at a gasoline more than any
other president perhaps before, in terms of where the prices are,
and he cares a lot about it. So in the
past he has brokeered agreements to a degree with open
plus to increase output. Now whether he's going to be
able to do that very unclear, but I think any
sort of broad agreement or view on the market, especially
(12:49):
later for twenty twenty six, would be interesting in those meetings.
Speaker 1 (12:54):
Yeah, Stephen, thank you so much for being with us.
Steven Stepchinsky leads our team covering energy in Asia. Stay
with us. More from Bloomberg Daybaqube coming up after this.
Speaker 2 (13:07):
China is about to unlock a huge African iron ore
deposit that risks upending the global market. The size and
richness of the Simandu deposit in Guinea could shift the
industry's parodynamics and help to transform the country's economy. Our
metals and mining reporter William Klause joins us now from
More will tell us for us about the scale of
Simandu and its potential impact on the global iron or market. Hi,
(13:31):
good morning, Yeah.
Speaker 9 (13:31):
So Samandu in Guinea is a really famous name in
the mining world. It's a very large iron ore resource
in a remote mountainous part of West Africa, which Bloomberg
was able to visit in September. It's often described as
the largest untapped iron ore deposit in the world. So
Samandu finally entering the supply chain after all of these
(13:52):
years is a really important development for the steel industry.
Iron ores used to make steel because over the next
two and a half years, the project's owners, Rio Tinto
and the winning consortium will increase their combined production to
one hundred and twenty million tons a year. That's equivalent
of about five percent of total global output last year.
(14:12):
And it's important for China's steel industry in particular because
Rio Tinto used to hold the rights to the entire
Samandi deposit, but today only has a quarter share and
most of the project is owned by Chinese companies. And
this comes at a time when China, which is by
far the world's biggest steel producer, is trying to gain
more influence over the price of iron ore and to
(14:35):
curb the power of foreign mining companies like BHP and
Rio Tinto. This massive news supply of high grade mainly
Chinese iron, Chinese owned iron ore will help China with
that endeavor.
Speaker 1 (14:48):
Yes, that will be very important given I mean Rio
Tinto has been involved in the project for almost thirty years.
But as you say, the Chinese firm so important, SIMANDU
then finally going to start actually exporting on or in
the next month or so, I mean, what actually brought
them over the finish line then, when this project has
been in the works for so long.
Speaker 9 (15:12):
Two key turning points I'd say, first in late twenty
nineteen when this Chinese Singaporean group Winning Consortium was awarded
fifty percent of the projects that had been taken from
Rio Tinto. That development provided real momentum for the project,
since Winning was really committed to moving fast and at scale,
and all of those massive costs on infrastructure could now
(15:35):
be shared. And the second really important moment was mid
twenty twenty two when the Guineian government pushed the two
groups to work together and form a joint venture and
despite being very different companies, and that agreement could be
considered like the final hurdle finally being cleared and unlocking
this investment that topped twenty billion dollars.
Speaker 2 (15:55):
This is Bloomberg Daybreak Europe. You're morning brief on the
stories making news from London to Wall Street and beyond.
Speaker 1 (16:01):
Look for us on your podcast feed every morning, on Apple, Spotify,
and anywhere else you get your podcasts.
Speaker 2 (16:07):
You can also listen live each morning on London Dab Radio,
the Bloomberg Business app, and Bloomberg dot Com.
Speaker 1 (16:13):
Our flagship New York station is also available on your
Amazon Alexa devices. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 2 (16:21):
I'm Caroline Hepka and I'm Stephen Carol. Join us again
tomorrow morning for all the news you need to start
your day right here on Bloomberg Daybreak Europe
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Blue
Big Day. Bake you at podcast KI Morning. It's Monday,
the third of November. I'm Caroline Hepkot in London.
Speaker 2 (00:15):
And I'm Stephen Carolin Brussels. Coming up today. Oil prices
rise as OPEC Plus announces plans to pause output increases
for the start of next year.
Speaker 1 (00:24):
The UK's Chancellor, Rachel Reeves considers a range of tax
hikes targeting the country's wealthiest.
Speaker 2 (00:31):
Plus how China's efforts to unlock a huge African iron
ore deposit risk upending the global market.
Speaker 1 (00:39):
Let's start with a roundup of our top stories.
Speaker 2 (00:41):
The price of oil has risen for a fourth day
after OPEK Plus announced plans to pause output increases at
the start of next year. The group and its allies
say they'll raise production by about one hundred and thirty
seven thousand barrels a day in December before taking a
break from January to March. The move comes as market
contends with growing concerns about oversupply that have driven the
(01:04):
price of brand down by around ten percent over the
past three months. Here's the view of vandanah Hari, a
Vander Insights.
Speaker 3 (01:12):
We are probably in an oversupply situation, but how much
over supply, I think the jury is still out on that.
And on the flip side, you have supply risk premium.
We just come back in a major way into the
market after the US and EU sanctions on Russia a
couple of weeks.
Speaker 2 (01:30):
Ago, Vandana Harry referring there to sanctions on Russian oil exporters.
As traders tell Bloomberg, the restrictions are now prompting Chinese
refiners to avoid shipments from the country.
Speaker 1 (01:42):
Here in the UK, a thirty two year old man
is being held on suspicion of attempted murder after a
mass stabbing attack on a train over the weekend. The
attack happens on a high speed service from Doncaster to London,
leaving eleven people in hospital and some with life threatening injuries.
The train was stopped at Huntington in Cambridgeshire. Audrey McAdam
(02:04):
is the town's mayor.
Speaker 4 (02:05):
This is just out of my mind. I'm totally out
of it at the moment. I'm sorry. I'm sorry to
say I cannot think straight at the moment. It's something.
It's a horror film, complete horror.
Speaker 1 (02:17):
Audrey McAdam speaking there as Police say that the motive
for the attack remains unclear. Authorities say there is nothing
to suggest it was terrorism related.
Speaker 2 (02:28):
The Chancellor of Rachel Reeves could target the country's wealthiest
with exit and mansion taxes in her upcoming budget. The
measures are on a long list of possible options being
considered by the Treasury to fill the fiscal hole. AR
Chief UK economist Dan Hansen says the Chancellor faces a
challenging outlook.
Speaker 5 (02:47):
I think Rachel Reeves listening to her her rhetoric around
this budget. She's very conscious of the inflation story now
and I think probably in hindsight, wouldn't have gone through
with some of the policies she went through in October
last year in the budget last year because there has
been an inflationary impact.
Speaker 2 (03:05):
Bloomberg's chief UK economist Dan Hansen there Bloomberg understands that
the Chancellor will only decide which tax risers to implement
once she receives the final fiscal forecast from the Budget watchdog.
The Bank of England is expected to hold interest rates
at four percent on Thursday, slowing the pace of policy
easing that it began last August.
Speaker 1 (03:27):
Now US President Donald Trump has threatened military action against
Islamist extremists in Nigeria. In a post to his Truth
social platform on Saturday, Trump also threatened an immediate cutoff
in aid to Africa's most populous nation. The move comes
after the US present said that he was designating Nigeria
a Country of Particular Concern because of worries about the
(03:50):
safety of Christians. This was last week. Nigerian President to
Bolah Ahmed Tinubu rejected President Trump's criticism, saying on social
media the country is a democracy governed by constitutional guarantees
of religious liberty. Tinubu has been under pressure this year
from a rising Islamist insurgency in northeastern Nigeria.
Speaker 2 (04:13):
China will effectively suspend the implementation of new export controls
on rare earth metals and end investigations into American companies
in the semiconductor's supply chain. The White House issued a
fact sheet over the weekend with some details of the
trade pack degreed last week by Presidents Donald Trump and Chootingping.
Speaker 3 (04:33):
Both.
Speaker 2 (04:33):
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant has warned that Washington must
still be cautious.
Speaker 6 (04:38):
I think and I hope after the agreement and the
good will between President She and President Trump in Korea
that we can depend on them to be more reliable partners,
and the rest of the world can depend on them,
but we can't take their chance. We don't want to
decouple with China, but we're going to have to.
Speaker 2 (04:57):
Do risk, the US Treasury Secretary Scott Besslon speaking there. Meanwhile,
China's manufacturing activity expanded less than forecast in October, according
to a private survey, adding to concerns about the economy's
slowing momentum.
Speaker 1 (05:13):
Now to European companies, which are proving surprisingly resilient, with
their results showing that they're navigating US tariffs a lot
better than anticipated. Bloomberg's Mihul Kubala has more Now.
Speaker 7 (05:26):
It turns out tariffs aren't biting European exporters as hard
as many feared. A Goldman Sachs basket of stocks most
exposed to the American levies, names like BMW Ordidas jumped
six percent in October, double that of the broader stocks
six hundred. Some firms, including Hermez and Unilever, even credited
(05:49):
sales growth in the United States for their ability to
beat estimates the optimism is showing up in forecasts. Bloomberg
Intelligence data shows earnings on u ro's key benchmark could
grow by double digits next year. In Brussels, Michalcobola, Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 2 (06:07):
And simbreaking earnings news this morning. Profits at Ryanair beat
expectations in their second quarter after tax figures came in
at one point seven two billion euros versus expectations of
one point sixty seven billion euros. Passenger numbers for the
first half of the year we're broadly in line with
expectations at one hundred and nineteen million. Ryaner now sees
its fully aar customer numbers at two hundred and seven million.
(06:29):
That's an increase from its last forecast of two hundred
and six million, slightly above what markets were expecting.
Speaker 1 (06:37):
And those are our top stories for you this morning. Well,
November in the market begins with some gains for stocks.
We have the All country World Index up by tenth
of one percent. We've also got stock futures for Europe
up two tens and US stock futures also pointing higher.
Oil has been gaining a six tens of one percent
half of break creed futures at sixty five dollars eighteen
(06:57):
the bow after the OPEC plus decision over the weekend.
US yields are steady this morning at four sports zero
seven For the ten year. Gold has been fluctuating, but
currently it is up by three tenths of one percent.
Iron ore and copper are down on concerns about China's
economic outlook, and the dollar this morning on the Bloemboog
(07:17):
Dollar Sport Index is weaker a tenth of one percent.
Those are the markets.
Speaker 2 (07:22):
In a moment will bring you more on OPEC plus's
latest moves on oil supplies, plus what a massive new
iron ore mine in Guinea means for the global market
and for the country's economy. But another story that we've
been reading this morning the season finale of The Great
British Breakoff as tomorrow in case you didn't have it
already marked in your diaries, and our colleague Georgia Hall
has been writing about one of the many side industries
(07:45):
that have sprung up around this TV show, and that's betting.
She writes about the vast and potentially lucrative online betting
market that exists around the series. Apparently there you can
get odds and everything from who will get a handshake
from Paul Hollywood one of the judges, who will win
the technical challenge, and of course who's going to win
(08:05):
the overall show at the end as well. Apparently there's
been quite a shift in odds as the series goes on.
Speaker 1 (08:13):
I love cake, don't get me wrong, but I'm quite
amused by this ballooning betting story that seems a bit
sort of harder to swallow. I wonder who is it
out there who's betting on cake baking. I don't know.
I always am a little more concerned about in the
UK just how many people are betting. The big survey
(08:34):
that came out earlier this month of betting a lot
of people two point seven percent of people in the
UK have got a betting problem apparently. But anyway, cake
is perhaps a more fun side to betting, maybe, yeah.
Speaker 2 (08:45):
I mean, look, it's the difference as well with this
market which is only growing in the US because of
course betting markets have only opened up in recent years
as well. So it's very interesting to watch it. It's
playing it in different sides of the Atlantic as well.
Quite a problem betting on this program because it's pre
recorded as well, so people could have insider knowledge as
to who has actually won, but it is being seen
as sort of a community building around a Matchlove TV
(09:08):
show as well as he can rejoin his peace at
Bloomberg dot com and we'll put a Linkdage in our
podcast show notes.
Speaker 1 (09:14):
Okay, let's talk about the oil markets. They face a
great deal of uncertainty. Crude prices have been falling this
year and on paper, there is expected to be a
big supply glot next year. So on Sunday, Plus said
that it plans to pause increases in output from its
members for the first quarter of next year. Stephen Stepchinski
leads our team covering energy in Asian He joins us
(09:35):
now for more. Stephen, good morning. What is OPEC's strategy
because there is usually a gap between the quotas what
they say they're going to do and then what is
actually produced.
Speaker 8 (09:46):
No, that's correct, Actually, so the OPEC Plus has been
increasing output for much of this year, actually more than
the market was expecting them to in terms of what
they're saying on paper. Now, you're right, in reality, they're
not always hitting those targets. Some country are struggling to
increase their output to hit that level. In fact, one
of the few countries that can actually really meaningfully increase
(10:07):
output and has a lot of spare capacity is Saudi Arabia,
the de facto leader of OPEK itself. Now, in terms
of what happened with this meeting, I think one thing
is is Russia. Russia is a member of OPEK plus,
and just recently we had the Trump administration slap sanctions
on two of the largest exporters that was ross neftin
(10:28):
look oil, and then we have the stories from last
week and then this week about Indian buyers and Chinese
buyers who traditionally were buying Russian oil. They're they're looking
at perhaps shifting their supply away from the sanctioned barrels
in order to avoid any sort of hit from from
the West or from the US for importing uh that oil.
(10:51):
And so because of that, it is likely seen that
maybe Russia in the OPEK plus meetings had pushed for
a pause because they're unable to increase their output, especially
if at the moment buyers are kind of scrambling to
move elsewhere. Now this could be digested, Maybe there will
be more dark fleet ships taking that supply, Maybe other
(11:11):
refineries will be willing to risk retaliation from the West.
But at the moment, I think it does make sense
that OPEK plus would would move for a weight and
see situation, especially since, as you know, when you look
at the macro situation for oil, we are facing a
bit of a glot for twenty twenty six.
Speaker 7 (11:28):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (11:29):
Indeed, there's several of those dynamics courses you say playing
out in the market too. There is a meating coming
up though, between Donald Trump and the Saudi crime friends
Muhammed Ben Salmon as well. What could emerge from that
that might be of interest to the oil markets.
Speaker 8 (11:42):
Well, certainly if you can see some sort of OPEK
movement to increase output or anything there would be would
be quite interesting. Now, of course, it's it's really unlikely
that that could happen because you had these OPEK plus
pause and they are working in unison. That being said,
you know you could see some broad general statements from
(12:03):
both sides saying that they're working to really balance the market.
I think when you look at what Trump wants, certainly
he wants low gasoline prices. He doesn't want to shake
up the market, and while the movement to sanctioned Russia
has to put pressure on Moscow to end the war
in Ukraine. He also doesn't want a surge an oil
(12:26):
prices because that will hurt his base. He I think
Trump is really looking at a gasoline more than any
other president perhaps before, in terms of where the prices are,
and he cares a lot about it. So in the
past he has brokeered agreements to a degree with open
plus to increase output. Now whether he's going to be
able to do that very unclear, but I think any
sort of broad agreement or view on the market, especially
(12:49):
later for twenty twenty six, would be interesting in those meetings.
Speaker 1 (12:54):
Yeah, Stephen, thank you so much for being with us.
Steven Stepchinsky leads our team covering energy in Asia. Stay
with us. More from Bloomberg Daybaqube coming up after this.
Speaker 2 (13:07):
China is about to unlock a huge African iron ore
deposit that risks upending the global market. The size and
richness of the Simandu deposit in Guinea could shift the
industry's parodynamics and help to transform the country's economy. Our
metals and mining reporter William Klause joins us now from
More will tell us for us about the scale of
Simandu and its potential impact on the global iron or market. Hi,
(13:31):
good morning, Yeah.
Speaker 9 (13:31):
So Samandu in Guinea is a really famous name in
the mining world. It's a very large iron ore resource
in a remote mountainous part of West Africa, which Bloomberg
was able to visit in September. It's often described as
the largest untapped iron ore deposit in the world. So
Samandu finally entering the supply chain after all of these
(13:52):
years is a really important development for the steel industry.
Iron ores used to make steel because over the next
two and a half years, the project's owners, Rio Tinto
and the winning consortium will increase their combined production to
one hundred and twenty million tons a year. That's equivalent
of about five percent of total global output last year.
(14:12):
And it's important for China's steel industry in particular because
Rio Tinto used to hold the rights to the entire
Samandi deposit, but today only has a quarter share and
most of the project is owned by Chinese companies. And
this comes at a time when China, which is by
far the world's biggest steel producer, is trying to gain
more influence over the price of iron ore and to
(14:35):
curb the power of foreign mining companies like BHP and
Rio Tinto. This massive news supply of high grade mainly
Chinese iron, Chinese owned iron ore will help China with
that endeavor.
Speaker 1 (14:48):
Yes, that will be very important given I mean Rio
Tinto has been involved in the project for almost thirty years.
But as you say, the Chinese firm so important, SIMANDU
then finally going to start actually exporting on or in
the next month or so, I mean, what actually brought
them over the finish line then, when this project has
been in the works for so long.
Speaker 9 (15:12):
Two key turning points I'd say, first in late twenty
nineteen when this Chinese Singaporean group Winning Consortium was awarded
fifty percent of the projects that had been taken from
Rio Tinto. That development provided real momentum for the project,
since Winning was really committed to moving fast and at scale,
and all of those massive costs on infrastructure could now
(15:35):
be shared. And the second really important moment was mid
twenty twenty two when the Guineian government pushed the two
groups to work together and form a joint venture and
despite being very different companies, and that agreement could be
considered like the final hurdle finally being cleared and unlocking
this investment that topped twenty billion dollars.
Speaker 2 (15:55):
This is Bloomberg Daybreak Europe. You're morning brief on the
stories making news from London to Wall Street and beyond.
Speaker 1 (16:01):
Look for us on your podcast feed every morning, on Apple, Spotify,
and anywhere else you get your podcasts.
Speaker 2 (16:07):
You can also listen live each morning on London Dab Radio,
the Bloomberg Business app, and Bloomberg dot Com.
Speaker 1 (16:13):
Our flagship New York station is also available on your
Amazon Alexa devices. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 2 (16:21):
I'm Caroline Hepka and I'm Stephen Carol. Join us again
tomorrow morning for all the news you need to start
your day right here on Bloomberg Daybreak Europe
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