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November 12, 2025 16 mins

Your morning briefing, the business news you need in just 15 minutes.

On today's podcast:

(1) Allies of Keir Starmer sought to ward off a feared leadership challenge from one of the British premier’s best-known ministers, as cabinet feuds spilled into the open just weeks before the government is due to unveil a contentious budget.

(2) The weakness in the UK labor market is likely to have been overstated, economists and policymakers warned, after new figures shifted the narrative in Westminster and financial markets ahead of the budget.

(3) Asian stocks rose alongside Treasuries after softer US jobs data strengthened bets on a Federal Reserve interest-rate cut, boosting market sentiment.

(4) Banks in China are asking clients to take out loans and then immediately repay them, with the bank covering the interest, in a practice known as "quick-lend-and-recover".

(5) The US military is exploring whether to build a temporary base capable of housing 10,000 people near the Gaza Strip as part of its push for a stabilization force of troops from other countries to monitor a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas.

(6) Germany must start dialing back its borrowing limits from 2029 to ensure solid public finances over the long term, according to the Bundesbank.

Podcast Conversation: Harvest Report: 2025 Is Turning Out to Be a Great Year for Wine

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Episode Transcript

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Speaker 1 (00:02):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

Speaker 2 (00:09):
This is the Bloomberg Day Bak You podcast. Good morning,
It's Wednesday, the twelfth of November. I'm Caroline Hepka in London.

Speaker 1 (00:15):
And I'm Stephen Carolin Brussels. Coming up today, the British
Prime Minister ker Starmer seeks to head off the threat
of a leadership challenge from one of his best known
cabinet ministers.

Speaker 2 (00:25):
China's banks KNJA phantom loans to hit quotas as a
slowing economy SAPs real demand.

Speaker 1 (00:32):
Plus no visa no problem. Wall Street ramps up hiring
in India as Trump cracks down on foreign workers coming
to the United States.

Speaker 2 (00:42):
Let's start with the roundup of our top stories.

Speaker 1 (00:44):
In the UK. Bloomberg has learned that allies of Prime
Minister kir Starmer have sought to ward off a feared
leadership challenge from one of the most high profile members
of his cabinet. The news comes after polling last month
showed that support for Starmer's party had slumped to its
lowest raising unrecorded, with just seventeen percent of Britain's telling
YouGov they'd vote for Labor if an election were held. Tomorrow,

(01:07):
but brigsw and Parts has more just.

Speaker 3 (01:09):
Two weeks ahead of what's likely to be a contentious
budget and with labour trading reform UK in opinion polls
for more than six months now fused within the cabinet
are spilling into the open. Bloomberg understands Kissed Armer supporters
privately accused Health Secrety Where Streeting of plotting to replace
the Prime Minister. A spokesperson for Streeting described the claims

(01:30):
as categorically untrue, but another official said that Downing Street
had gone into bunker mode and initiated what they called
a circular firing squad. Starmer supporters argue any attempt to
change leader would risk a market shock and undermine the
government's finances. In London, I'm un pots.

Speaker 2 (01:48):
Bloomberg Radio economists have worn that weakness in the UK
labor market is likely to have been overstated. After official
figures showed unemployment rows to five percent yesterday. Policymakers, including
the Bank of England rate set of Meghan Green, are
concerned the numbers rely on erratic data from the Office
for National Statistics. The jobs market is being monitored closely.

(02:11):
After the Chancellor was blamed for ramping up the burden
on employers in her first budget. Neil Carbrey, CEO of
the Recruitment and Employment Confederation, said payroll taxes should be
left alone in the upcoming budget.

Speaker 4 (02:26):
The Chancellor took a swinging swipe at National Insurance last year,
not just in increasing the rate, but in reducing the threshold,
which is one of the reasons why we see so
much pain coming from hospitality retail sectors where the threshold
had a particular effect because we just on average, tend
to be lower. I think if there are to be
tax rises, if they're for business, they have to come

(02:47):
on profit, not on activity.

Speaker 2 (02:49):
That was Neil Carbrey, CEO of the Recruitment and Employment Confederation,
speaking to Blomberg Radio. As traders reacting to the latest
jobs data, priced in a roughly eighty percent chance of
a rate cut in December by the Bank of England.

Speaker 1 (03:05):
Stocks and bonds have risen in tandem after softer US
jobs data strengthened bets on a federal reserve rate cut
at the next meeting. Numbers from ADP suggest the labor
market slowed in the second half of October, prompting traders
to raise bets on a December cut to around seventy percent.
Private data such as ADP's has taken on greater importance

(03:26):
as the US government shutdown deprives investors of official indicators.
Here's the White House National Economic Director Kevin Hassett on CNBC.

Speaker 5 (03:35):
There's been quite a lot of disruption because of this
terrible shutdown, and so, for example, I've been told that
some of the surveys were never actually completed, so we'll
never perhaps even know what happened in that month. And
so we're going to be staring a little bit in
cloudy weather for a while until we get the data
agencies back.

Speaker 1 (03:53):
Up, Kevin Hassett, speaking there to CNBC. As the broader
artificial intelligence raley got another boost overnight. Chip maker AMD
is now forecasting average revenue growth of more than thirty
five percent over the next three to five years. The
stock rallied and extended trading, with CEO Lisa Su saying
she now expects the total AI chip market to each
one trillion dollars by twenty thirty.

Speaker 2 (04:17):
Well now to China, where a practice known as quick
lend and recover is spreading as banks face rising pressure
to hit steep targets. Bloeberg's Tiba Adebayo has more.

Speaker 6 (04:28):
Chinese lenders are asking clients to take out loans and
then immediately repay them, covering the interest. According to employees,
these phantom loans are becoming more common as real demand
struggles to keep up with government pressure. Bloomberg understands banks
have been told to lend at least as much as
last year and worry the number of borrowers could shrink

(04:49):
even further. The news comes as policymakers face a major
challenge as China's economy slows, encouraging people to borrow, spend
and invest. Meanwhile, regulators have vowed to prevent funds circulating
in the banking sector instead of flowing to the real economy.
In London, to You, added by Bloomberg.

Speaker 1 (05:10):
Radio, the US military is looking at plans to build
a temporary base capable of housing ten thousand personnel near
the Gaza Strip. According to a request for information seen
by Bloomberg, the Navy is looking at cast estimates and
a list of contractors for a site quote near Gaza,
Israel that would provide ten thousand square feet of office
space for a period of twelve months. Bloomberg understands that

(05:33):
any potential base would be used to support an international
stabilization force to help secure the fragile truce between Israel
and Hamas.

Speaker 2 (05:41):
Euro Group finance ministers gather in Brussels today to discuss
fiscal developments in the currency Block, it comes as French
lawmakers are set to debate suspending the country's pension reform,
a key demand by socialists in order to help keep
the Prime Minister Sebastia Locorno in power. French Minister European
Affairs Benjamin had Aired told Bloomberg Radio he's confident that

(06:03):
parliament will reach a budget compromise, but he said France
must adapt to a new political reality.

Speaker 7 (06:11):
The truth is now we're fitting a lot with the
European norm. You know, for a long time in France,
we used to have absolute majorities in parliament and you'd
have the majority adopt laws and the opposition being in
the opposition. And most of our neighbors have fragmented parliaments,
have coalitions and they have a spirit and a culture
of compromise, of reaching to one another.

Speaker 2 (06:33):
French Minister for European Affairs Benjamin had Had speaking there
to Bloomberg Radio Finance ministers of the wider European Union
will meet tomorrow for a summit that could include a
debate on the use of Russian assets to support Ukraine.

Speaker 1 (06:48):
And those are your top stories on the markets. The
mscirishpecific index up by four tenths of one percent this morning.
The ten yure treasure yield in the US down three
basis points to four point zero nine percent, as the
US jobs data I had showed that suffering and a
ramping up of Federal reserve rate cup bets. European stocks
close did a record high yesterday. This stock six hundred
was up by one point three percent of the clothes

(07:09):
and Italy's finally passed its two thousand and seven peak.

Speaker 4 (07:14):
Well in a.

Speaker 2 (07:14):
Moment, we're going to bring you more on the possibility
the potential leadership challenge facing Kirstarma, plus how American investment
banks are expanding in India in response to President Trump's
moves to titan visa rules in the US. But another
story has caught our rye, as it often does at
this time of the morning. Twenty twenty five apparently is

(07:37):
turning out to be a great year for wine well.

Speaker 1 (07:40):
Depends on where you are, is the key part of this.
So climate conditions led to excellent or what winemakers are
saying will be excellent production exceptional. Indeed, some of the
language being used in the likes of the Bordeaux region
in France and Champagne as well in England. It looks
like it's going to be a great year for wine.
There two Pied mount in Italy, but then dess and
other places the Door of Valley and Portugal that's going

(08:03):
to be a terrible year for them. Corbier and France
in the Longdock region they had suffered with forest fires
in particular that had also led to damaging a lot
of grapes spheres, and some of the grapes there might
actually end up with a smoky tint as a result
of the fires in the area as well. But I
suppose if we focus on the positive, it does look
like twenty twenty five is going to be one of

(08:25):
those years ending in five that produces excellent wine. I
didn't know this was a thing, but apparently it's a
trend among wine makers. Bank on twenty twenty five.

Speaker 2 (08:33):
We need to get ourselves educated about the best things
to quaff of a weekend. But yes, I mean there's
also been a massive surge in demand for English wines,
which I think is really interesting. But I think overhanging
all of this is the question mark about demand. For one,
even if it's a fantastic year, consumption has actually been down.

(08:55):
People are drinking less, particularly red wine, and we talked
about that in the past, and then there's tariffs on
the prices of a lot of these wines. But I
think it's a really interesting piece, yes, with highs and lows.
I suppose, mirroring the worries about climate change. Really from
Bloomberg's Ellen McCoy. She was reporting on the latest when

(09:15):
it comes to why, we're going to put a link
to that story if you're interested, maybe a buyer or
a drinker, or put a link to it in our
show notes. Now let's bring you more on our exclusive
reporting on the threat of a leadership challenge against the
Prime Minister here in the UK. Our UK correspondent Lizzie
Burden joins us now for more. Lizzie, good morning. Firsty,
what do we actually know about this challenge?

Speaker 8 (09:37):
Well, our UK Political editor Alex Wickham has been speaking
to allies of the Prime Minister, who've privately accused the
Health secretary. Where's Streeting of plotting a leadership challenge? Now,
it's not the first time that Streeting's name has been floated.
He's younger than Starmer at forty two. He's charismatic, he's
from a council estate in London. He's gay, so he'd

(09:58):
be seen as a fresh face the party when Starmer's
personal ratings been languishing behind Nigel Farages, the reformer UK
Party leader. But Starmer's team say the market wouldn't like it.
Remember when Guilt sold off, when the Chancellor cried a
taste of the potential reaction if she were sacked. Starmer
will be hoping for the same loyalty from the Bond vigilantes.

(10:20):
And we should say Streeting's team say that this is
categorically untrue.

Speaker 1 (10:25):
But Starmer has been struggling to keep his own MPs
on board over the sixteen months of his premiership. Is
this more serious than previous rumblings we've heard.

Speaker 8 (10:34):
Well, you'll remember the rumblings around Starmer's leadership, Stephen. They
crescendoed around the Labor Party conference. But there was a
sense that the Mayor of Manchester, Andy Burnham stuck his
head too far above the parapet and then he had
to backtrack, and it was seen as Starmer getting a
bit of a grip on his party. The other name
at the top of Bookie's list is the former Deputy

(10:55):
Prime Minister Angela Rayner. But Streeting himself has flirted with
disloyalty before. He openly criticized President Donald Trump around his
second state visit, so breaking with Starmer's softly softly approach.
But what's interesting about Streeting is he only won his
seat by five hundred and twenty eight votes last July,
and he could be vulnerable to a challenge by an

(11:17):
independent candidate that's pro Palestine. He might not even rewin
his seat when there is an election.

Speaker 2 (11:24):
But all of this is coming only two weeks before
the budget. How do you think the events behind the
scenes affect what is seen to be a very painful
set of announcements that come from the Chancellor.

Speaker 8 (11:35):
Well, the Chancellor is expected to raise taxes, as we
know Caroline, and she's hinted that she could break Labour's
manifesto pledge not to raise the three main leavers of
tax The Times of London, reporting that she's already asked
the Office for Budget Responsibility, the Fiscal watchdog, to do
the sums on raising income tax, even if no final
decision has been made yet. Now that would be deeply unpopular,

(11:57):
hence all the pitch rolling, but it would create an
opportunity for a leadership challenge. Clearly though, if Starma goes
so soon into his premiership it would smack of that
instability under the Conservatives. Johnson trust Sunak that Starma promised
he would end.

Speaker 2 (12:12):
Okay, Lizzie, thank you so much for being with us
our UK, corresponded, Lizzie Burden, stay with us. More from
Bloomberg daybaqube coming up after this.

Speaker 3 (12:24):
Now.

Speaker 1 (12:24):
A recruitment drive by US investment banks in India is
expected to accelerate after moves by the White House to
reduce immigration that included pushing up the cost of the
H one B skilled worker visa to one hundred thousand dollars.
The prospect of expansion by global banks abroad underscores the
limits of Trump's strategy to safeguard domestic employment through tighter

(12:45):
immigration controls. OUR Finance reporter Sudi Naya joins US from
Mumbai for more. Sod be great to talk to you.
What has changed then for US banks in India as
the Trump administration has been making these changes and tightening
visa rules.

Speaker 9 (13:01):
So financial services firms and banks that are headquartered in
the US have a significant employee base in India. Just
to give you some numbers, the top six US banks
in India, including JP Morgan City, Goldman Sachs, employ about
one hundred and fifty thousand employees in India. That's a
significant employee base, right. So when Trump announced the RISA fee,

(13:25):
a lot has changed for these players as well as
the banks. So US firms are now walking a fine
line as they look to add more of these sophisticated
job roles in India. These firms are now looking inwards
in India for hiring talent to ensure there is optimum
So there's to ensure that there's cost optimization to save

(13:45):
up on costs. So the banks that may have considered
transferring a worker to the US may now opt to
hire them in India to save their costs. That is
going to lead to more jobs in India, ultimately feed
into revenue generation and boost India's growth prospects.

Speaker 2 (14:05):
Yes, that's very interesting, isn't it. Well who is hiring
and you've talked a little bit about roles, but what
sort of roles are the banks actually hiring?

Speaker 9 (14:14):
For sure? A little bit of background here. Initially, when
the GCC operations started in India, these vccs were viewed
as call centers in the late nineteen nineties or early
two thousands, if you had a grievance related issue, say
if you're somebody in the US and had some inshortance
related grievances or issues, the chances were that they would

(14:38):
be handled out of India. But that has significantly changed now.
Indians are now expected to build the tech here. As
the technology here. They're expected to do high end sophisticated roles,
indulged in research and development, do most of the legal work,
and ensure that the back end processes run smoothly. So

(14:59):
just to give you an example, what we found from
our reporting is the zell app, which is a US
based digital payment service app for sending and receiving payments.
The entire app was developed from India in their Indian
gccs of these Wall Street banks. So just this was
to give you some light on how the job roles

(15:22):
are changing now coming to a question of what kind
of roles banks are hiring for. These are mostly high end,
sophisticated and finance roles, mostly in the software automation testing
based for the X side and on the audit side.
For the finance side. We have audits, we have business

(15:44):
development roles. A certain amount of high end roles that
are being transferred to India.

Speaker 1 (15:51):
This is Bloomberg Daybreak Europe, your morning brief on the
stories making news from London to Wall Street and beyond.

Speaker 2 (15:57):
Look for us on your podcast feed every morning on Apples, Spotify,
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Speaker 1 (16:03):
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Speaker 2 (16:09):
Our flagship New York station is also available on your
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I'm Caroline Hepka.

Speaker 1 (16:18):
And I'm Stephen. Carol. Join us again tomorrow morning for
all the news you need to start your day right
here on Bloomberg Daybreak Europe.
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