Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:02):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News.
Speaker 2 (00:09):
This is a breaking news update from Bloomberg instant reaction
and analysis from our three thousand journalists and analysts around
the world.
Speaker 1 (00:19):
From Bloomberg World Headquarters in New York. I'm Doug Prisner.
There has been a stunning announcement from President Trump on
truth Social the presidents saying that Israel and Iran have
agreed to a complete and total cease fire beginning in
approximately six hours that would be around midnight Wall Street time. Now.
(00:39):
Trump said an official end to this twelve day war
will be saluted by the world. Earlier in the day,
to provide a bit of context, we had Iran retaliating
for those US air strikes over the weekend by attacking
a US airbase in cutter Now. The Katari government intercepted
this attack. There were no casualties that may have held
(01:00):
to diffuse a lot of concern about an immediate disruption
of oil from the Middle East. Now, in New York trading,
we had crude oil falling pretty dramatically. We were down
more than seven percent, and those declines are accelerating here
in the electronic session, with WTI down four percent. Now
at sixty five seventy five. Let's get to Joe Matthew.
(01:20):
He's on the line from Washington, d C. Joe is
host of the Bloomberg Balance of Power radio and TV program. Joe,
give me your perspective on what we're learning.
Speaker 2 (01:29):
Well, it's just fast and furious today. Pretty remarkable to
think about the distance of time, just mere hours between
Israel watching Iran respond to US attacks on its nuclear sites.
As you just described, Doug to e merge with a ceasefire.
We were asking just a short time ago if it's
hit for tap between the US and Iran was over.
(01:51):
I guess we can answer that now and in fact
put at least a book in on what's been going
on between Israel and Iran for the better part of
twelve days. We need to learn a lot here. We're
working on very few headlines. As you know, the President
likes to announce things on social media and there's typically
a lot of other news behind the headline. He's on
his way to the NATO summit tomorrow. As far as
(02:12):
we know, he's still on track with that plan, and
this is going to be a fascinating conversation when he
joins other world leaders overseas, and I suspect we'll use
this as a platform to send a big message after
what's happened in the last forty eight hours.
Speaker 1 (02:25):
So I was listening to your special coverage earlier today,
and among the many topics that you were trying to cover,
this notion of regime change in Iran. No indication that
that's a factor at all in this right.
Speaker 2 (02:37):
Well, if you ask the White House, no save for
astray once again social media posts by the President in
which he seemed to embrace this idea for a moment
saying why is this considered politically correct to bump up
against the idea of regime change? But all of his lieutenants,
every Republican lawmaker on Capitol Hill, has gone out of
their way to say that that's not what this is about,
(02:57):
that we're only at war with the nuclear pro not
with the country or the people of Iran. And that's
a message is well dug to the MAGA constituents who
were very opposed to this idea of striking Iran. The
President trying to keep this into an isolated strike to
the benefit of our national security. If the MAGA base
follows it that way, this will be seen politically as
(03:20):
a win for him as well.
Speaker 1 (03:21):
To what extent do you think there were conversations between
Israel and the US trying to put or set the
table for something like this before the attacks occurred over
the weekend, to set.
Speaker 2 (03:32):
The table for a ceasefire, you mean, or the US
strikes themselves.
Speaker 1 (03:36):
Yeah. I think a little bit of both, don't you think.
Speaker 2 (03:38):
Look, yes, and they've been talking a lot, and we
do have a lot of reporting on that. I'd bring
you back to April when Benjamin Netanyaho met with President Trump,
who reportedly waved off on the idea of an Israeli
invasion or series of strikes at that point. But clearly
that was the beginning of a conversation, and whether there
was some sort of collusion when it came to the
deception of Israel launching its first attacks might take some
(04:01):
time to unfold in a story that we'll be told.
But indeed, the President's been in touch with Benjamin Nett
and Yahoo repeatedly. Here, our advisors on both sides have
been and as we understand more about the way this
unfolded with the decoys, for instance, and the way that
they used media together, this was clearly something that they
were talking about in the United States, showed up on
(04:21):
Israel's behalf to try to close the deal on this
attacking or elimination of Iran's nuclear sites. The President says,
it's obliterated. Doug, It's difficult to know if we'll ever
have the evidence to prove that for a fact.
Speaker 1 (04:35):
Joe, standby, because I'm going to bring in Jonathan Panikoff.
He is the director of the Skokrawl Middle East Security
Initiative at the Atlantic Council's Middle East Program. Jonathan, thank
you for making time to chat with us. Kind of
a remarkable series of events today that has unfolded, and
now this idea we are being told by President Trump
(04:56):
that Israel and Iran have agreed to a complete and
total cease fire. Give me a reaction.
Speaker 3 (05:02):
Well, good evening, Thanks for having me. Look. I think
if it ends up being accurate, and then it's obviously
going to be a huge deal because in the end,
President Trump stuck to the narrow window that he had
discussed originally, the discussion of regime change in that one
tweeked seems to go out the window, perhaps to the
(05:22):
Israelis dismay, But Iran's reaction today demonstrated that they wanted
the escalation. It was very intentional about how they retaliated
on holiday, the fact that they weren't ahead of time,
and so I think this is an indication that Iran
was willing to have an off ramp. They wanted one.
And I think what's going to be a real question
(05:43):
is did the US then pressure Israel to make this
deal to end the hostilities or did Israel decide on
its own And my guess is it may be a
little bit of both. Frankly, Israel was running out of targets.
Trump probably pushed them. But we're going to find out
in the coming hours and days.
Speaker 2 (06:03):
Jonathan, it's great to have you with us as we
consider the way this all unfolded over the past couple
of days. There was a time when Iran was considered
a global military power, what do we call it now?
Speaker 3 (06:15):
A certainly diminished one. Look, Iran had three major parts
of its defense triad and its power projections in the region.
One was its proxy network, which has been incredibly diminished
hes Valajamas. Even the who thies have been relatively quiet,
probably having run out or running low on ballistic missiles.
The second part was its ballistic missile program, which they
(06:39):
probably have the ballistic missiles still in storage, quite a
few of them. But it's the launchers that the Israelis
very smartly went after and the actual production assembly that
the Azolays went after. And so it's set back the
ballistic missile program and of course the nuclear program. And
I think we're still waiting to see what the actual
(06:59):
war the impact on the nuclear program is going to
be at the end of the day. Look, if it's
true that a lot of the highly enriched uranium was
moved out of Foordoh and the Iranians have secret sites,
as they very well may, then we could still be
faced with a challenge of a nuclear Iran. But even
in that case, the weaponization part of this has almost
(07:22):
certainly been set back as the major sites have been
destroyed and so with nothing else. Maybe things haven't been
completely obliterated and ended in the nuclear program, but it's
certainly been significantly set back that it's not going to
serve as the existential threat to Israel today as it
did even a week and a half ago.
Speaker 1 (07:42):
We're speaking with Jonathan Panikov from the Atlanta Council's Middle
East program helping us understand the headlines of the hour.
President Trump announcing that Israel and Iran have agreed to
a cease fire in their conflict that will begin at
around midnight US time. This even Jonathan earlier in the day.
(08:02):
We obviously had the retaliation by Iran for those US
air strikes over the weekend, the attack on the US
air base in Cutter. Now, from what we know, Cutter
was actively involved in trying to play a diplomatic role,
and our Jomana Bursecchi in Dubai was saying that the
Katari government was pretty angry at the Iranian regime today
(08:25):
for this strike. Can you give me a sense of
the role that Cutter may have played in bringing about
this development.
Speaker 3 (08:31):
Well, I'm certainly not surprised that Cutters were angry. Look,
this is a violation of their sovereign territory, is what
they're going to say. But I also think they probably
were not completely surprised by it. Ali data and Cutter
is the biggest US base that the US has. Look
Cutter has tried to play an intermediary and a negotiator,
(08:51):
a peace making role on a host of conflicts. Obviously,
most prominently we know about it from Gaza, but they've
also been heavily involved in democratic public of the Congo.
They've been heavily involved in parts in East Africa. So
I think it fits with Cutter's default efforts to be
a peacemaker. Clearly, they are trusted a little bit more
(09:13):
by the Trump administration and by Steve Whitkoff than the
Israelis trust them. They've long viewed Cutter as a hostile state.
I think we'll find out how much of a role
they ultimately played, but I don't think you should be
surprised to anybody to see that Cutter was trying to
be serve an intermediary, regardless of whether or not they
were successful here.
Speaker 1 (09:33):
Jonathan, thank you so much for being with us and
offering your perspective on the developments President Trump a short
while ago announcing that Israel and Iran have agreed to
a tentative cease fire. Jonathan Panakoff from the Atlanta Council's
Middle East Program. Let's go back to Joe Matthew and Washington.
He is host of Bloomberg's Balance of Power. He has
(09:53):
been tracking developments on this story. I guess the weekend
through all day today, and now we are at this
moment crude oil prices Joe are just collapsing even further.
We saw WTI down quite a bit today in New York.
I think collectively a sigh of relief and markets given
the degree of tension that there has been, it's been palpable.
Speaker 2 (10:14):
That's right. President Trump, by the way, just posted as
you were speaking, trust in Trump. That's all it says
with an American flag emoji. And that is the idea
here that the White House is trying to reinforce. If
you just had faith in the Boss, you wouldn't have
been nervous here in the markets to begin with. But
there has been a narrative in the markets broadly for
stocks and commodities that the great existential threat that's been
(10:35):
hanging over our heads for decades has suddenly been eliminated.
Now that's before we were talking about a ceasefire. There
were still missiles in the air, dug and stocks were
going up. Today oil was going down. This is not
the scenario that we ever envisioned at a time like this,
but the idea that the nuclear threat has dissipated save
all the rest of it, and there could be further
conflict in the Middle East, but that single item was
(10:59):
a massive risk off moment for investors in both spaces simultaneously.
And I'm still struck by that moment today, sitting here
in our bureau in Washington, knowing that missiles were on
their way from Iran to US installations suddenly intercepted and
markets begin to rally without the president even speaking. I'm
(11:20):
not sure we've seen something like that before.
Speaker 1 (11:21):
So what do you think this does for the president.
We've talked about his approval rating being underwater recently, and
I'm wondering whether or not this gives him a big boost.
Speaker 2 (11:31):
Well, it might, and we'll have to give that a minute.
You know, we were talking earlier about the split in
the MAGA community and that might speak a lot to this.
Democrats are not going to give the president a lot
of credit for what's going on here. I don't suspect
that'll happen even if this cease fire holds. And we
were speaking with Democratic lawmakers earlier today who are signing
on to a War Powers Act that they want to
put guardrails on this president and believe that he acted
(11:54):
unconstitutionally by ordering this strike but keeping his own base
together is going to be the eye object here, whether
it's Steve Bannon or Tucker Carlson or anyone else who
opposed this idea. Looking up at this post trust in Trump.
Maybe they should have will be his suggestion, because he
managed to keep this to an isolated event.
Speaker 1 (12:14):
Iran's foreign minister was in Russia over the weekend. I
think there may have been some conversations happening early on Monday.
We know that Russia was pretty critical of the US
move on those nuclear sites, and at the same time,
Beijing seemed to be very very disapproving. We know the
relationship on the oil side between Tehran and Beijing. The
(12:36):
Chinese are very very dependent on crude oil coming out
of Iran, and I'm wondering how those two countries, Russia
and China may have put a little bit of pressure
on the Iranian regime to try to come to a resolution.
Speaker 2 (12:50):
Well, that could be, and that's a great question to
ask in a narrative that we're going to be following
here or pursuing at Bloomberg. This could all take an
interesting turn as well tomorrow and the President gets to
the NATO summit, when, of course Ukraine was supposed to
be on the menu here. We didn't think we'd be
talking about a ceasefire, never mind the US striking Iran,
but knowing of course that Russia is already deeply involved
(13:14):
in its war against Ukraine. To watch this unfold in
the Middle East, it's a very dangerous moment and a
curious one as President Trump demands more spending from our
European allies in NATO, and I suspect that he's going
to speak to all of these if there's a news
conference where he's taking questions from reporters, we could advance
all of these storylines with a single visit to that summit.
Speaker 1 (13:35):
Well, you mentioned the fact that the president is on
his way to the Netherlands for the NATO summit. How
do you think this development is going to change the
conversation there.
Speaker 2 (13:43):
It's a great question. I suspect that he's going to
be asked a lot about this instead of Ukraine. And
if your President Zelenski, that's probably not a winning formula
for you this week. The fact of the matter is
Vladimir Putin continues to bomb civilians, striking We've seen horrifying
videos drones striking apartment buildings, and this is something that
may not get the attention that it would have otherwise.
(14:05):
The President's going to be there coming off of what
he sees as a massive victory though, and he's going
to claim victory for European nations that increase spending to
five percent of GDP. They're going to be lined up
to get a handshake and a photo opportunity with him
about that. Even though he doesn't have a lot of
nice things to say about our European allies. He made
this week, This whole summit was kind of orchestrated for
him to celebrate the push for our NATO allies to
(14:28):
spend more. He's gonna have a lot more to talk
about now when it comes to Iran. And he's going
to project himself, Doug as a peacemaker when he goes
to this military alliance and in a summit of world leaders,
a peacemaker who is reportedly interested in winning the Nobel
Peace Prize, which is something that Pakistan suggested might happen today.
Speaker 1 (14:47):
Joe, I'm going to let you go. You're going to
probably have a meeting right after we wrap here to
start producing tomorrow's radio program, radio and TV. It's the
Balance of Power show co host Joe Matthew joining us
from Washington, DC, helping us understand headlines of the day.
President Trump announcing a short while ago on truth Social
that Israel and Iran have agreed to cease fire in
(15:09):
their conflict. It will begin at around midnight Wall Street time,
which is in about five and a half hours from now,
Trump saying on truth Social, the official end of this
twelve day war will be saluted by the world