Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:02):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager and I'm Karen Moscow. Here
are the stories we're following today.
Speaker 3 (00:15):
Karen, we begin with the latest from the Middle East.
Two days after the US dropped bunker buster bombs on
Iran's key underground nuclear sites, President Trump said a ceasefire
is in effect between Israel and Iran. The President announced
it in a truth social post. Last night. Israeli Prime
Minister Benjamin Netanyaho confirmed that he's agreed to it and
(00:35):
that he's achieved his war aims. But this morning there
are questions whether this truce will hold. We get the
very latest from Bloomberg Middle East anchored Jumana Bursechi.
Speaker 4 (00:45):
They've also said that Israel will respond forcefully to a
breach of truth. And if you remember, it's quite similar
to the wording of the truce agreement that Israel had
in place with Hezbalah at the time when they agreed
the ceasefire. It was a ceasfire and principle, but again
Israel reserved the right to still strike back at certain
Hesbala targets should they deem to have contravened the seas fart.
Speaker 3 (01:09):
It's Bloomberg's Jamanibersat you're reporting in this morning, Israel's military
set it identified missiles fired from Iran. Defense Minister Israel
Katz said he instructed his military to respond forcefully. Iran
is denying that it has launched a new attack, Nathan.
Speaker 2 (01:23):
The ceasefire announcement comes after Iran launched missiles at a
US airbase and Cutter and retaliation for the bunker Buster attack.
T Iran launched fourteen missiles at the base, the same
number as the bunker Busters dropped on its nuclear sites.
All but one of the missiles were intercepted and no
one was hurt. Bloomber's Paul Wallace has more from Dubai.
Speaker 5 (01:45):
I think Iran had to do something to save face,
if nothing else, with its domestic population. And I think
the Americans well knew that. It just depended what Iran
would do and how spectacular and how aggressive that retaliation
would be. In the end, it seemed like it was
very choreographed, very calibrated, and there's even been speculation that
(02:07):
Katar knew that this was coming and was actually okay
with it.
Speaker 2 (02:12):
Bloomer's Paul Wallace reports President Trump spoke with Cutters and
Mirror about the ceasfire and asked for his help persuading
Around to agree to it. It's still unclear whether the
truce will hold or if it'll lead to new discussions
about Around's nuclear program and Karen.
Speaker 3 (02:26):
Markets are fluctuating with every headline coming out of the
Middle East. Futures are higher, but off their best levels
of the morning. That follows yesterday's one percent gain on
Wall Street, and we're seeing oil prices continue to fall
as well. Right now, nine X crews down more than
three and a half percent, trading just above sixty six
dollars a barrel. Brent is also down more than three
and a half percent at of nearly sixty nine dollars.
(02:47):
Bloomberg Energy reporter Stephen Stepzinski says oil traders see less
risk in the market.
Speaker 6 (02:53):
Oil prices are back below the June twelve level. You're
seeing the market take a large sigh of leaf, and
that is largely because while we've been through potentially the
worst flare up in US Iranian conflict in decades, oil
kept flowing and trade via the Strait of Hormus was
not affected.
Speaker 3 (03:13):
In Bloomberg, Stevens Stebsinski notes the Middle East pumps about
a third of the world's crude supply.
Speaker 2 (03:19):
Nathan the is Israel Around ceasefire comes as leaders gather
for a NATO summit in the Hague. Ahead of the
two day meeting, most of the NATO member states agreed
on a proposed target to raise defense spending to five
percent of GDP by twenty thirty five. NATO's Secretary General
Mark Ruda says the ramp up and spending would be
a quantum leap as.
Speaker 7 (03:39):
The world's becomes more dangerous at our leaders will take
both desisions to strengthen our collective defense, making NATO a stronger,
a fair, and a more lethal alliance member.
Speaker 2 (03:53):
It as a new target has not won approval of
all of NATO, with Spain fighting for an opt out
that could derail talks to making place in the Hague.
Speaker 3 (04:01):
Today, I'm back in Washington, Karen Fedchair J. Powell begins
two days of testimony on the economy before Congress. Later
this morning, he'll appear before the House Financial Services Committee.
In a post on social media this morning, President Trump
said he helps Congress quote really works Powell over for
not lowering rates already. We get more from Bloomberg's Michael McKee.
Speaker 8 (04:21):
The Fed chair has been squarely in the President's sites
ever since Donald Trump returned to the White House. Trump
wants him to lower interest rates now, today and tomorrow.
J Powell gets his chance to turn the tables. While
Powell will be more circumspect and polite than the President,
he'll explain the Central Bank doesn't want to lower rates
until it knows the impact of Trump's tariff taxes and
(04:42):
the budget bill on the economy. Expect Republicans to defend
the President and Democrats to defend the Fed, and Chairman
Powell to be as neutral as he can be. Michael McKee,
Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 3 (04:53):
All right, Mike, thanks and stay with Bloomberg for full
coverage of Chair Powell's testimony before the House. Will have
it for you starting at ten am Wall Street Time
on Bloomberg Radio and the Bloomberg Podcast page on YouTube.
Speaker 2 (05:04):
Return to Politics now on Nathan and on a sweltering
day at New York City, Democrats will vote in today's
mayoral primary election. Bloomberg's Lisa Matteo joins us in Manhattan
with the latest. Lisa, good morning, Good morning, Karen, and
Hopefully that heat will not affect the turnout now. Polls
open at six am and voters have a long list
of candidates choose from eleven or running for the official
(05:26):
Democratic ticket, but survey showed the contest comes down to
two men, former Governor Andrew Cuomo and New York State
Assembly Member so In Ramandami. Now, last night, the former
governor spoke at a rally for Cuomo for mayor.
Speaker 9 (05:39):
It's about the working families, It's about the struggling middle class.
It's about people worried about the kitchen table issues, trying
to figure out how to pay for groceries and pay
for their rent, and pay for tuition and pay for taxes.
That's what the Democratic Party is.
Speaker 3 (05:57):
All about now.
Speaker 10 (05:58):
Meanwhile, Mandam been advocating for rend freeze's and free childcare.
Speaker 11 (06:03):
New Yorkers are hungry for a new kind of politics,
the politics that puts working people first. And we're seeing
that it's not just in one borough, it's not just
with one kind of New Yorker, it's across this entire city.
Speaker 10 (06:15):
Polls have largely shown Cuomo winning, but a new Emerson
College poll showed Mandanmi coming out on top in the
city's rank choice voting comptroller Brad Landler. Lander is polling
third in some surveys and has formed an alliance with Mamdanie.
He had focused on his experience as a manager and
his opposition to President Trump. City Council Speaker Adrian Adams
(06:35):
also vying for the nomination, running on her experience in government.
Other candidates while they include former Democratic National Committee Vice
chair Michael Blake, New York State Senator Zelnor Myrie, New
York State Senator Jessica Ramos, former New York City Controller
Scott Stringer, and retired hedge fund manager Whitney Tilson. Michael Bloomberg,
the founder majority owner of Bloomberg LP, the parent company
(06:57):
of Bloomberg Radio, has endorsed Andrew Cuomo Manhattan, Lis Matteo
Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 3 (07:02):
Nor Lisa thank You and This year's Democratic nominee will
face incumbent Mayor Eric Adams, who is elected, of course
as a Democrat, but he skipped today's primary to run
as an independent in November. On the Republican side of
today's ballot, Curtis Sliwa, founder of the anti crime patrol
group The Guardian Angels, is running unopposed, he will once
again be the Republican nominee.
Speaker 2 (07:22):
Well, Nathan, How does ranked choice voting work? Bloomberg Gina
Survetti continues our coverage of the New York City mayoral race.
In Manhattan.
Speaker 12 (07:31):
Voters choose their favorite candidate, but also can select a
second favorite, a third, and so on up to five.
If a candidate gets a majority of first place votes,
that person wins. If not, the candidate with the fewest
first place votes is eliminated. Voting machines then examine the
number two choices on every ballot cast for the eliminated
person and distribute those votes among the remaining field. The
(07:54):
process continues until a candidate garner's a majority. For the
New York mayoral primary, if no candidate wins more than
fifty percent of the votes on the first ballot, election
officials planned to wait a week before initiating the ranked
choice tabulation process in order to include mailed in absentee
ballots in New York. Gena.
Speaker 3 (08:13):
Cervetti, Bloomberg Radio, Gina, thank you. Turning back to Washington,
the Supreme Court is allowing President Trump to resume his
program of swiftly deporting migrants to countries other than their homelands.
For now. Bloomberg Zamy Morris has more from the nation's capital.
Speaker 13 (08:27):
The Supreme Court lifted a judge's order requiring the Trump
administration to give people ten days notice and a chance
to object before deporting them to a third country. The
order marks a shift for the High Court. The justices
previously pushed back against the administration's efforts to send some
immigrants to harsh or potentially dangerous locations with minimal notice.
(08:48):
The decision drew a scathing descent from Justice Sonya Sotomayor,
who said the High Court's action was a gross abuse
of its authority. In Washington, Amy Morris Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 2 (08:58):
Amy, thank you. Another legal blow for the President Trump
and his battle with Harvard University. For the second time
in a week, a federal judge in Boston is issued
a court order letting the Ivy League keep hosting foreign students.
The President had tried to bar the students, setting a
law to safeguard national security. Time off for a look
(09:19):
at some of the other stories making news in New
York and around the world, And for that we're joined
by Bloomberg's Michael Barr, Michael Good morning.
Speaker 14 (09:25):
Good morning, Karen. Oppressive heat and humanity are slamming nearly
half the country, and today is going to be another
hot day for many. Bloomberg meniorrologist Rob Carolyn has the latest, Michael.
Speaker 15 (09:38):
High pressure remains situated over the Carolinas, so the hot
weather continues. We have extreme heat warnings stretching from the
Carolinas through the district in Baltimore on through Philadelphia, New York,
and up into southern New England. Many of these cities
are going to see afternoon high temperatures at or above
one hundred degrees with the heat index over one hundred
and five, and that's why those extreme heat warnings are
in effect. Further to the west, we're looking at lots
(09:58):
of heat advisories. How he is going to continue to
shift down into the Atlantics. Of the hot weather in
many locations continues into Wednesday, if not Thursday.
Speaker 3 (10:06):
Michael.
Speaker 14 (10:07):
Thanks Rob. A jury has now watched nearly forty five
minutes of recordings of marathon sex events, considered important evidence
in the sex trafficking and racketeering trial of music mogul
Sean Diddy Combs. The prosecution says the jury viewed explicit
footage of two of Combe's former girlfriends sexually involved with
(10:28):
male sex workers while he filmed the encounters. Combs has
pleaded not guilty to the charges. Prosecutors planned to rest
today after a defense presentation. Closing arguments are scheduled for Thursday.
Attorney General Pam Bondi's hearing before the House Appropriations Committee
quickly devolved into shouting matches with Democratic lawmakers. Democratic Representative
(10:49):
Madeleine Dean of Pennsylvania pressed Bondi about reports that she
advised and signed off on President Trump's acceptance of a
luxury jet from Cutter.
Speaker 12 (11:00):
True that you gave advice that this was legally permissible?
Speaker 13 (11:03):
Yes or no. I will not discuss any advice that
my Office of Legal Counsel gives to the President of
the United States on any matter.
Speaker 14 (11:14):
Meanwhile, Senate Republicans are considering a forty thousand dollars cap
on state and local tax deductions, but want to lower
the income threshold. It's a bid to resolve a standoff
with House Republicans. Senator Mark Wayne Mullen of Oklahoma, a
key negotiator, said he plans to make the offer to
House Republicans from New York, New Jersey and California. Other
issues still need to be resolved, including Medicaid cuts to
(11:37):
rural hospitals. Global news twenty four hours a day and
whenever you want it with the Bloomberg News Now, I'm
Michael Barn. This is Bloomberg Heron.
Speaker 2 (11:46):
All right, Michael Barr, thank you. It is time now
for the Bloomberg Sports Update, and here's John stash Hour.
Speaker 3 (11:56):
John, Good morning, morning Karen.
Speaker 16 (11:57):
It was just ten days ago the Mets were flying
in high They had won fifteen of eighteen. They were
twenty seven and seven at home. They had the best
record in baseball, a five and a half game lead
in the NL. Since then, ten games, nine losses. They
scored only nineteen runs in those nine defeats, so I
won four. Versus Atlanta, the Braids won three to two
at City Field and now second place Mets got a
(12:18):
two run homer from Juan Soto, but nothing else. For
manager Carlos Mendoza.
Speaker 17 (12:23):
Once the bottom of the lineup, we're having a hard
time creating opportunities. You normally we religned pretty much on
the top four five guys, and then if those guys
in the bottom are not able to get on base,
that's why we're having a hard time scoring runs right now.
Speaker 16 (12:39):
Mendoza Tonight will start Frankie Montas it'll be his Mets debut.
Yankees in Cincinnati had a first anting home run from
Aaron Judges twenty eight. Nothing after that. Yanks loss of
the red six to one, Red Sox loss of the
Angels nine to five. Nationals won ten six in San
Diego and Seattle's win at Minnesota. Home run number thirty
two for the Mariners switch hitting catcher Cal Rawley.
Speaker 3 (13:01):
He's hit five in his last four games.
Speaker 16 (13:03):
The NBA Draft against tomorrow, the Celtics, that have moved
to save money, traded Drew Holiday to Portland for Anthony
Simon's in two second round picks.
Speaker 3 (13:11):
This saves the Celtics forty million. In the Luxury Tacks.
Speaker 16 (13:13):
Tyrese Halliburton had surgery on the torn achilles he suffered
in Games seven of the Finals. He had a calf
injury going in said he has no regrets trying to play.
The Pacers and Celtics are gonna play most, if not all,
of next season without their star players. Both Halliburton and
Jason Tatum tore their achilles in the playoffs. That should
help the Knicks in the East.
Speaker 3 (13:33):
Nick still without a coach.
Speaker 16 (13:35):
Latest name linked to the Knicks job James Barrego, former
coach in Charlotte, John Stanshatward Bloomberg Sports.
Speaker 13 (13:41):
Karen Nathan.
Speaker 1 (13:44):
Coast to Coast on Bloomberg Radio nationwide on Serious Exam
and around the world on Bloomberg dot Com and the
Bloomberg Business app. This is Bloomberg Daybreak.
Speaker 3 (13:54):
Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager. A ceasefire announcement between Israel
and Iran may already be in doubt hours after President
Donald Trump posted about it on social media. Israel is
accusing Iran of breaching the truce, joining us from Tel
Aviv Bloomberg News Israel Bureau Chief Ethan Bronner Ethan, good morning.
We've seen a flurry of headlines since the President posted
(14:16):
that cease fire announcement last night on truth Social what's
the latest? You can tell.
Speaker 18 (14:20):
Us well, as you said, Nathan, So right after the
President issue this announcement, there was I think there were
six volleys of missiles at Israel repeatedly. One after there
was forty minutes or so we were running in and
out of bomb shelters. But then the Israelis announced that
they had accepted it as well, and it seemed it
(14:42):
was happening. And then just a little while ago, two
more missiles went to the north. The Iranians apparently say
they didn't send them, but the Israelis are quite clear
that who did send them, and they've already seen a
fragment of it landed in northern Israel. So there clearly
was some kind of a vile and the Israelis have
(15:02):
threatened said they're going to carry out a very severe
attack in Tehran in retaliation. So you're right that it's
a pretty fragile. My instinct is that it will evolve
in the next hours, that we will see some kind
of a truce, because everyone seems to want it, but
you never know.
Speaker 3 (15:22):
What do we know about the terms of the truth
that were announced by President Trump last night. How is
it going to work?
Speaker 18 (15:31):
We don't really know. I'm assuming that there will be
a kind of formal, you know, quiet for quiet announcement
between Israel and Iran, and then there'll be a sort
of unspoken agreement between the United States and Israel, as
there is with regard to Levin and Hazbollah, in which
(15:51):
Israel says, if we see clear violations, we are going
to take you to a lateral action, and the Americans
are going to say fine. By now, Iran is a
lot farther away than Lebanon and a lot harder to
suddenly take action. But that's my instinct about where we're headed.
Speaker 3 (16:08):
Okay. Now, ahead of this apparent break of the seafire,
Israel had said that it achieved its war aims in
agreeing to this. Does that mean from the Israeli perspective
that it no longer sees Iran as a nuclear thread.
Speaker 19 (16:27):
I think it more or less means that, or at
least that it's its nuclear program is set back sufficiently
two years or something that it's going to be very
hard if you have all of these broken centrifuges and
all of these enrichment sites that are impossible to get
into or to send.
Speaker 18 (16:43):
Power to it for a while. I think there's the
sense that we need to still see all of that
with greater clarity. The yes as a nuclear threshold state
Iran has been pushed aside for now, and the Israeli
is also saying that they took care of eighty percent
of the launchers of ballistic missiles, and so that's the
(17:05):
less of a threat as well. Obviously it is in
total victory, but enough for them to declare it as such.
Speaker 3 (17:13):
And of course it came after Iran lobbed the same
number of missiles as the amount of bunker buster bombs
that the US dropped on its nuclear sites over the weekend.
What can we expect when it comes to further US
involvement here, Well, I mean the.
Speaker 18 (17:31):
Numbers may have been the same, but it was a
little bit like a kabuki theater. I mean, they dropped
fourteen missile some kind of projectiles on an American base,
but they told the Americans and the Kataris where the
base is in advance. They were all stopped. President Trump
was kind of narrating it on his truth social as
(17:52):
it was happening, So it was kind of an active theater.
I don't think the Americans are planning any kind of retaliation,
and everyone's hoping that would be it from that perspective.
Speaker 3 (18:02):
So does that mean that we could see resumption of
discussions around Iran's nuclear program? As you mentioned, there are
still a lot of questions about the status of the
program following all these attacks.
Speaker 18 (18:17):
Yes, I assume there will be an attempt to get
these talks going again. But I think that the American
and the Rushalian perspective is that what has been destroyed
is so significant that there isn't an urgency to the
talks the way there once was.
Speaker 3 (18:34):
So to that extent, where does this last twelve days
since the Israeli attack on Iran that began all this,
where does this leave the Iranian regime Ethan? I mean,
we've seen President Trump muse kind of openly about the
possibility of regime change by the Iranian people. Could it
go there?
Speaker 18 (18:56):
Look, I think nobody really you know, predicting revolutions and
who's is a fool's errand But obviously this government in
arab this regime is as weak as it has ever been,
as threatened as it has ever been. It is held on,
you know, it's got all the leavers of power still
in its hands. So I don't know what's going to
(19:18):
happen to it, but there's no question that you know,
it's friends Russia. China did not come to its aid militarily.
Its proxies in Lebanon and in Syria and Iraq have
been almost entirely not eliminated, but certainly diminish. And so
(19:39):
it is a shadow of its former self as a
regional power today, and that is what Israel wanted.
Speaker 3 (19:46):
Thank you for this, Ethan. Great to have you with
us this morning. That is Ethan Bronner joining us from
Tel Aviv, Israel Bureau chief for Bloomberg News, Karen Nathan.
Speaker 2 (19:56):
Let's repeat some of our top stories this morning. President
Trump says he hopes Congress really works fed share J.
Powell as he gets ready for two days of testimony today.
The President says interest rates should be two to three
points lower. Another legal blow for President Trump and his
battle with Harvard. For the second time in a week,
a federal judge in Boston is issued a court order
(20:18):
letting the Ivy League keep hosting foreign students and its
primary day in New York City, voters will contend with
extreme heat and a ranked choice ballot in the Democratic
race for mayor. We have more in those stories coming
up on Bloomberg Daybreak, Nathan.
Speaker 3 (20:32):
All right, Kather, and thank you for that. It is
a five point twenty two on Wall Street. Want to
turn now to another one of our top stories. What's
happening in the Hague. Later today, leaders from the NATO
Alliance gathering for their annual two day summit, looking to
lock in big defense spending increases as President Trump prepares
to make his way to the event. Joining us from
(20:53):
the Hague this morning is Bloomberg's Oliver Crook. Great to
speak with you this morning, Oliver, after we heard from
the Secretary General of NATO Mark Rutta talking about a
five percent of GDP defense spending goal that would be
a huge increase from current levels. Does that look like
it's going to hold? Good morning, Nathan.
Speaker 20 (21:15):
Yeah, it does look like it's going to hold at
this stage. I mean, there's a little bit of infighting
which we can get into, but you know, I think
that what we've learned about the Trump administration and Donald
Trump itself is he likes one big, beautiful number, and
that big beautiful number that NATO wants to present to
him in order to guarantee continued US support of the
alliance is five percent five percent of GDP spend on
an annual basis of every single country within the NATO Alliance.
(21:37):
As you say, Nathan, the previous requirements were two percent.
Most countries were not hitting that for a very long
time you take the average of the last decade, in
removing the United States, it's closer to one point six percent.
And now you're in a position where you have these
nations lining up to basically guarantee to spend about five
percent of their GDP on defense. Now we should say
this is not strictly speaking a real five percent. Only
(22:00):
three point five percent of that is going to be
on the sort of hard military hardware, the kind of
traditional military spending we think about guns, ammunition, tanks, aircraft
and those sorts of things. One point five of that
is going to be sort of defense adjacent. So let's
say there is theoretically a war on the eastern flank
of NATO. You need roads and railways that can carry
tanks around. You need cybersecurity defense, so those sorts of
(22:21):
things could also be included. But we should say, Nathan,
that this, despite the fact that it's maybe not a
clear and pure five percent, this is a massive uptick
in terms of European defense spending. And this is something
that frankly six months ago was completely inconceivable and it's
becoming a reality over the next couple of days.
Speaker 3 (22:37):
We had heard in the lead up to this Oliver
that Spain was holding out on committing to that five
percent target. How serious is Spain's sort of reluctance to
go forward with this.
Speaker 20 (22:52):
Yeah, they've been really sort of a holdout, and this
has been a big topic of conversation over the last
couple of days. I've spoken to a number of defense
at foreign ministers over the last couple of day, they
from different European nations. They seem to think that Spain
is going to get on board. Basically how it works
as NATO assigns a certain amount of hardware and things
that each of its members need to basically participate in.
The point is that Spain says that they can basically
(23:13):
meet those requirements without spending the three point five percent,
but can do it with two point one percent. But
we even heard from Mark Rote yesterday saying that he
really doesn't think that that's possible and there can't really
be two speeds and two different requirements for different members
of NATO. And the second that sort of Spain is
unwilling to do it. Then you heard started hearing sounds
from Slovakia. So really what they need to do is
to present a united front. It's hard to imagine that
(23:34):
they sort of blow up this whole arrangement just because
Spain doesn't get on board. So I have to watch
what we get over the next twenty four hours.
Speaker 3 (23:39):
And as we wait for a President Trump to make
his way over there following the announcement of the cease fire,
with the shakiness surrounding that, Now, where does this position
President Trump as he heads to NATO.
Speaker 20 (23:55):
Yeah, so it's a really interesting question. It's something that
I've been sort of wondering about. You know, if he's
got basically a big win under his belt, saying that
he's a destroyed all of Iran's nuclear facilities or to
a very large extent, b has managed to sort of
negotiate a ceasefire. He comes to the sort of NATO
meeting potentially in high spirits, but also in a position
to basically make a lot of demands and to feel
very sort of good about pushing around the rest of
(24:17):
the world because, as we know, the Europeans have basically
had zero influence on the situation in the Middleies, whether
it's Gaza, whether it's Iran, all of these sorts of things.
And he comes here to NATO and really does feel
a little bit like the sort of you know, the
King of NATO. This is all down to the fact
that basically the Trump administration, Donald Trump has threatened basically
not to come to the aid of certain NATO members
(24:38):
if they do not reach their targets, and that is
what has got everybody in line. But likely if he
still comes to the summit, and that is our base
case assumption, that he will be becoming a in high
spirits and be in a very sort of powerful position,
even more powerful potentially than previously.
Speaker 2 (24:51):
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Speaker 3 (25:37):
And I'm Nathan Hager. Join us again tomorrow morning for
all the news you need to start your day right
here on Bloomberg Day.
Speaker 12 (25:43):
Ray