November 5, 2025 • 37 mins
Terence Kawaja has mapped (literally) the chaos of media and marketing tech for decades. As many in the industry know he is somehow part investment banker, part prognosticator and part comedic showman (his musical parodies about Cannes and more are rather iconic). In this episode, Marisa and Steven get Terry’s take and where it’s all actually going from here. If the business of brands was once a combination of “real estate and religion” what is it now becoming? You might be surprised where this banker nets out, but here’s a hint: how about tech as the ultimate megaphone for… creativity? Join us!
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:06):
Hello, and welcome back to brand New from the iHeart
Podcast Network and brand New Labs. I'm Marissa Paulberg and.
Speaker 2 (00:12):
I'm Steven Wolfeneta hallewom was awesome Halloween turned up here
in La? How was it for you? Marissa?
Speaker 1 (00:21):
It was a little quieter for me, but I finally
am home after two weeks on the road. But I
must note we keep talking about AI and we will
be today. But the real world experience of getting to
be with your family in La last week, and it
was funny. I was thinking about it like I had
the best time with your kids.
Speaker 2 (00:39):
It was so good. They love their tam Marissa. My
daughter Sienna, I think she wanted to go shopping with you,
and she's seven, But again, they adore you, so thank
you for being wonderful.
Speaker 1 (00:51):
I thought you and you and Nuria were going to
be mad at me because I was playing What was
I doing? I was playing with technology with them and
I was showing them Snapchat lenses. But it was such
a real world fun way of getting to be with
you and them, real world.
Speaker 2 (01:06):
Just to be with you and David irl experiences. I
think that only becomes more important going forward.
Speaker 1 (01:12):
Well, we're about to bring on someone who has been
one of the biggest prognosticators of where it's all going.
Speaker 2 (01:19):
With tech and comedian.
Speaker 1 (01:21):
He's also one of the biggest comedians in our industry,
which has sort of been an interesting juxtaposition and a
unique one. But just this idea of following where the
ball is going and understanding how it kind of interplays
with what we're all doing in marketing and media, et cetera,
et cetera. So I want to introduce him.
Speaker 2 (01:40):
Yeah, so we are here with the one and only
Terrence or Terry Kauwaja, who is one of the most
recognizable figures in marketing, media and technology. But truly, I
think you've missed your calling as a comedian because you
are just so freaking funny.
Speaker 3 (01:58):
Right true.
Speaker 2 (01:59):
But Harry is well, I want to say recovering banker,
but you really are, I guess still doing investment banking
because you are the founder and CEO of Lumah Partners
and you have advised on over three hundred billion dollars
of transactions in digital media and marketing, and you have
helped shape mergers and exits and strategic moves, and you
have really defined this space for the past two decades. Terry,
(02:20):
and I believe we both started way back when at
a little firm called Solomon Brothers, Salma Smith, Barney Ben.
You are probably most either beloved or known for for
creating the Loom Escape, those famously intricate charts that map
the ever expanding reach of ad tech mare tech media.
Speaker 1 (02:38):
I love how Steven's doing this in the second person,
like he's like telling you about.
Speaker 2 (02:43):
You, but you really map the ecosystem, and you are
not just funny, and you provide all this incredible education
for the market, but you really have called where the
puck is going. And so it's a true pleasure to
have you on Brand News. Welcome, Terry, Welcome.
Speaker 3 (03:01):
Great to be with you, Stephen and Marissa. Gonna be
so much fun.
Speaker 1 (03:05):
It's gonna be fun. Well, I just have to make
a little confession. First, I was so intimidated by you when.
Speaker 2 (03:11):
I first met you.
Speaker 1 (03:11):
I'm like, who is this guy that everyone knows? It's
like the posse, the mafia of this whole industry. And
then I got to know you, and then I got
to even be in one of your crazy Can two
of your crazy Can videos. So I feel like that
shows I've made it more than anything else.
Speaker 2 (03:30):
Terry's kind of the OG creator Marissa, if you think about.
Speaker 1 (03:33):
It, true, it's really true. All right, Steven, we got
to jump in because there's so much to talk about,
and you were just telling us before we went on
that you've done a couple of episodes of podcasts recently
that have been a little unhinged. So we're not afraid.
We're not afraid, am I right? Steven?
Speaker 2 (03:49):
Please be in hinge. It's my favorite kind of Terry.
Speaker 3 (03:51):
I said that with Ari Baparo recently, and we both
acknowledged that we had two things in common, the two
relevant ones, no boss and no filter.
Speaker 2 (04:01):
That's a good combiny.
Speaker 1 (04:02):
Well, we're a little careful that way. Some of us
do still have bosses, but that's okay. I'm going to
jump in with a first question because I want to
just set the stage in terms of who's listening. We
have people who are listening who are deeply in our industry.
We have some people who are not. We have a
people who are long standing execs. We have people when
we love who are kind of first rising in this industry.
(04:24):
So I'm going to kind of go for the executive
summary first. With everything you see and everything you do.
Where are we now? Like, is it possible to give
sort of a simple situation analysis for everyone listening for
all the years you've spent mapping, as Steven said, ad
tech and media and mark like, where are we?
Speaker 3 (04:47):
It's actually a really great question too, in a sector
that's got a lot of moving parts, a lot of complexity,
a lot of fragmentation, a lot of dynamics, to just
step back and say, wait, what's going on?
Speaker 2 (05:02):
Overall?
Speaker 3 (05:03):
The way I sort of frame that is, we are
moving in both media and marketing. Media is selling and
marketing is buying. Right, so the two sides of every equation,
Media and marketing are moving from an art to a science.
In its most simple form.
Speaker 2 (05:24):
You just crushed versus heart right there.
Speaker 1 (05:26):
Terry, you did. I might have to debate this a
little with you.
Speaker 3 (05:30):
Allow me to elaborate. So that's it at its basic,
because we are taking traditional media and marketing or a
combination of what I call real estate and religion. And
I used to have a slide on this like fifteen
years ago. So real estate on the supply side, because
scarcity was everything like a parking lot, like getting us
(05:52):
spot the last spot was like super valuable and religion
on the buy side because you spit your money and
you had to believe that it worked for you. So
realistic in religion is how I used to call it.
And now it's moving towards the science. Now you have data.
Now you have channels that actually have somewhat either an
(06:17):
explicit or an assumed closed loop, which is to say,
it's not just data, because data helps you guess, but
a closed loop of data helps you know. That's the difference,
because there are some paradigms where you fundamentally change the
nature of marketing spend from a discretionary expense to a
(06:40):
cost of good sold. And by the way, when you
can do that, it changes everything. And I often describe
the marketers in the mobile gaming sector nobody gets it
from the sense that they were the canaries in the
coal mine with respect back to outcomes. They define the
(07:03):
early days of outcomes.
Speaker 2 (07:05):
Because give an Exampletary latelyly what kind of company.
Speaker 3 (07:08):
So let's talk about super Sell supercell in two Thoyd
and ten. I used to say to people super Sell,
let me give you a thumbnail of their economics. They
have a billion dollars in revenue. It cost them about
one hundred million dollars to develop the games. They had
a small number of employees, and then they had five
(07:32):
hundred million dollars of media expense, so they would buy
slots in ad slots on mobile apps, and then they
would have four hundred million of ebit DA. And I
used to ask the question. I said, this is not
a gaming company.
Speaker 2 (07:49):
And just to define terms, EBIT EBITDA earnings before interests, taxes, depreciation, amortization.
Speaker 3 (07:56):
It's an electron that stands for profits. This is not
a gaming company. This is a marketing company that just
so happens that its product is a game. You could
substitute the game for anything. In other words, if you
analyze the P and L of that company, you define
it by its largest components, and its largest components are profits.
(08:17):
In marketing. Gaming is just a happenstance, right. It just
happens to be in gaming, could be in anything else.
So here's the point. They were experts at the idea
of where to place media such that they got conversions,
and along came intermediaries. And we're all familiar with Apple
(08:38):
Love and it started in two thousand and twelve as
a mobile gaming ad network and a couple of really
smart folks who built a business whereby they got really
smart at knowing where to go to buy the media
that would lead to a conversion and in the instance
(08:59):
of a mobile gaming company, that would be a download.
And the reason why they had to get good at
it was because their business model. They had an arbitrage
business model where they bought CPM and by the way,
super cheap CPMs because it's mobile gaming, and if you
bought the right CPM, they would sell CPI. And in
(09:20):
that translation, they made a fortune. So I used to say,
and I went to the A and A. I remember,
in front of thousands of marketers, and I said, mark
my words, I said, study the mobile gamers, okay, because
they were all hung up as twenty eighteen, they were
all hung up on it was when I took a
(09:42):
fabulous picture with SWP and Michael Cassident and Nick Bryant,
and I said, they were all hung up with the
direct to consumer marketers. And they should have been, because
the direct consumer marketers were taking market share at a
rate that was unprecedented for marketing. I mean normally, if
you're the CMO and you lose one point in a quarter,
(10:03):
or calendar year, you get raked over the coals in
front of the board. These upstart companies were taking ten
fifteen percent market share from stalwarts like Gilat.
Speaker 2 (10:15):
But zoom out on this terry, right, because what you
were describing is basically what we've seen over the past
two decades, which is just the increased fragmentation that you
now have so many outlets. And I remember when I
was a media buyer for Walmart, and you know we've
discussed this. You know, people come and pitch me a show, right, Oh,
this is the best show, and it's like, hey, that's great,
(10:38):
they have a great show. I am buying audience, and
I could find audience anywhere, and it just keeps on expanding,
kind of like the universe, it just keeps on inflating.
And so for the marketer like Marissa, it's got to
be on the one hand, incredible and maybe this is
you know, the science part that you can actually have
all these infinite options because now every one is a
(11:00):
media company. But on the other hand, is this the
version of AI slop? Is this kind of like you know,
media slop.
Speaker 1 (11:06):
It's incredible and terrible because if you work in a
business like when I was in QSR with Taco bell
or retail and you want to scale impact, it's terrible.
I know, we're talking about the World Series right now,
Like there's a reason Live Sports is it's such a
premium because it's one of the few places and believe me,
the sellers know it that you can still create a
(11:29):
shared collective moment and as people who are playing in
culture still want that, it's not all just the spots
and dots of the digital CPMs.
Speaker 3 (11:39):
And I totally agree the direct consumer. It didn't start
with them because the general marketers were like, what is
going on with this new thing. I'm like, no, no, no,
that's a gestation stage of an evolution that started with
mobile gamers, that it went to all apps and then
direct consumer. And I said, it is coming to you
this that I'm talking about, not exactly in the full
(12:04):
extent of pure performance, which is to say, pay for
direct bottom of the funnel outcomes, but it is coming.
This notion of using data to drive performance to move
towards outcomes is coming to all marketers. And you would
best be well served by learning what happened over there
(12:25):
in the mubile app world. And now would evolve into
direct consumer. I agree with Steven your point about this
notion of the poor marketer. Two problems. You described a
science problem, Marissa described an art problem. But let me
address those. So how can I ease me all this
thing into like I'm not buying show like I need
(12:46):
bulk man. Why does a marketer spend money in advertising?
They have an objective. They want to convert a consumer
to be a customer theirs. I describe commerce as advertising perfected.
In other words, it work. So you want to maximize
all three aspects of an ad in order to convert them.
(13:09):
You want to target the right people in the right context.
So generally speaking to whom you are sending your message,
you want to find the right media. That is to say,
where people are paying attention, where the hot sort of
thing is. That's to your point about live sports. And Third,
(13:30):
you want to have the right creative, the right copy,
the right message, the right cool thing. And throughout the
last twenty years my career, my experience is we have
seen hundreds, if not millions or billions of dollars invested
in or acquisitions of companies that do the first two things.
(13:52):
There are data companies that are all about the audience
or their media companies all about the placement, and I'm
like sitting there going wait, isn't the single most important
thing the creative the third thing that you guys are
just whatever. It's consistently been viewed as a manual thing
(14:14):
that is not susceptible to science applications. But that's not right.
That's why Steven has heard me yap on about creative
technology and how I think we're missing the boat because
they've now done studies. That was my gut feel, but
they've now done studies that say, amongst the three variables,
(14:34):
the audience, the media, and the creative, how do they
contribute to a successful campaign? And the answer is the
creative is like fifty to seventy percent. It's the whole
shooting match. So now with AI, we have the ability
to actually apply science to creative. Let me explain what
(14:57):
that means. Nobody a great creative that makes you maybe
tear up a little bit, evoking emotions like a mobile
app ad never evoked an emotion, right, that's purely performance.
Speaker 2 (15:13):
That batter ad did a movie you when we just
saw that little logo on like these pixelated Titi screen.
Speaker 3 (15:17):
I'm a left rain, right brain kind of person who
believes in the art. I love the art. So when
I hear people on Madison Avenue decry the application of technology,
but we're losing the soul of advertising, I say, calm down.
We shouldn't lose the soul of advertising, because I like
(15:40):
to think of technology like a megaphone. Whatever creative you
had before, you can only get out to a certain
audience with tech. Your amazing creative that you spent a
lot of time thinking about is now amplified for much
broader purpose. So no, my recommendtion is embrace the science
and race it. This data, this tech that we're have
(16:03):
to make. Basically, it's perfecting what we do. Right. So, advertising,
you spend a lot of money and you get a
small amount of conversion. You're already starting off with a
losing ratio. Okay, you're not terribly effective. Everyone is not
terribly effective. If you can move your effectiveness up just
a little bit, you can double, triple, quadruple the impact
(16:27):
that you have, so all the work that you do
on the creative side is not wasted. That's a good
way to think about it, is that historically everyone who
did all this effort to make great creative it was
largely wasted because the conversion ratio was like two percent,
so ninety eight percent of it was wasted. Imagine how
amazing it would be if you could double that, Terry.
Speaker 1 (16:54):
Who's doing it really well that you see out there
in terms of technology being the creative megaphone, the art
and the science coming together as trite as even my
saying that sounds we're talking about it in practice, that
really is a combination. Who do you admire? Who's the
source of admiration for you? Right now?
Speaker 3 (17:14):
It's a great question, and I would say that we're
in early innings of people optimizing on the creative things.
Yeah that said, I'm a proof is in the putting
kind of person, So I don't take speculation. You know what,
I look at results. You know who's producing the best results.
I'm not saying it's about creative per se. I'm saying
(17:38):
who's figured out data, media and creative. The one and
two list is Facebook and app loved.
Speaker 1 (17:46):
Okay, So that's interesting because you went with media companies
in your answer.
Speaker 2 (17:51):
Correct again, technology companies that are actually media businesses, right.
Speaker 1 (17:55):
Good point, Yeah, Terry.
Speaker 2 (17:58):
The top five by market cap. You know Nvidio five
trillion dollars this week? Okay, five trillion, Microsoft for a trillion, Google, Meta, Apple? Like,
is it just game over? Because it's all the technology companies,
all big tech will only get bigger because it's not
(18:19):
like they're going to stop at four or five trillion.
Don't go to ten as AI continues to accelerate. So
how does a marketer survive in this world where literally
they I mean I always keep saying they're bringing pencil,
not to a gunfight, to a drone fight, right, So
how on earth can a brand compete build up their
(18:40):
own intelligence when they don't have the tools, they don't
have the GPUs, they don't have any of this stuff.
And every large tech company say, oh yeah, just come
to my platform, give us all your data, don't worry
about a thing.
Speaker 3 (18:52):
We'll take you care of the rest. Just give us
your money. I think the exact opposite. I think I
think it's a magical time for artful rate of people
on Madison vag there's.
Speaker 2 (19:02):
No Madison Avenue terry that does kill DDB. There's no Gray,
there's no JWT, like is there even a Madison Hurative?
Speaker 3 (19:11):
But I met it figuratively. Last week, I did a
customer off site for Yeah, my client. Yeah. I was
in front of one thirty agency people in this particular session,
and they asked me a question like, you know similar
sort of question. Is it over? Like what's going on?
And I said, agencies have never had more agency than
(19:36):
right now. It's all up to you. Yes, there are
these extremely powerful technologies that can optimize you know, media
and data and coming soon and with the imposition of AI,
it's a confusing time for folks. There's fear. Your clients
(19:57):
are fearful because that's a natural, huge human response to
massive change, the sudden massive change. You've read the headlines.
You know AIS going to change everything, and it will.
And so all these marketers are floundered because they're like,
what do I need to do? Do I learn chat
chipet or no. I need to tell me more than that.
(20:18):
I need to understand how the LM's are going to
monetize that, Like it's so hard right now, we're all
in the same boat. I have a presentation I give
on the intersection of AI and advertising, and towards the
front of it, I say, when it comes to that
intersection of AI and advertising. I frequently say three words
(20:38):
that anyone who's responsible should be saying when addressing the space,
and the three words are I don't know, because I
don't know. Your CMO doesn't know, your technology vendor doesn't know. Heck,
Sam Altman doesn't know. He doesn't know the implication of
AI and how it will manifest advertise. Well, I'm in February.
(21:01):
He's got a better look see than any But they have.
Speaker 2 (21:04):
A vision, and again you know the vision. So they
just had this week, right, I don't know if you saw.
They kind of laid out their roadmap for product, for research,
and for infrastructure and for folks that aren't kind of
like nerds and the weeds, you know, Following all this stuff,
they basically shared their stack and their stack Perry is
(21:25):
basically to eat all software and they become the operating
system where they have infinite memory. Everything will be inside
of a context window, inside of chat shept or it
could be clawed or could be Geminar or rock. But like,
basically you'll have the four horsemen of the AI era
and apps are going to live inside of there. So
(21:46):
how on earth does a brand even remotely compete, let
alone get visibility or how does they even get relevant? Right?
I mean again, we were at a anda and we
saw Mark Pritcher talking about stuff. Stage's talking about Sharman.
I don't know. I mean, I like Sharmon, but I
might just have my chat shept or cloud or whatever,
say you know what, does you know have commerce integrated
(22:08):
into it? Right? So I'll just say get me the
cheapest toilet paper and just have it on repeat, and
you know, I'm never gonna think about it again. And
the brand is dead to a couple of things we.
Speaker 3 (22:16):
Were referencing sort of the agencies. My message the agencies
was this can either be the best moment for you
or the worst. It's up to you. The ergo agencies
have the most agency right now. So your clients are fearful,
and fear is a strong emotion and you can, like
not take advantage of that. That sounds wrong, but you
can help and you can in other words, you can
(22:37):
be recognized for a value add if you act as
their shirpa. But that means you have to be ahead
of the curve relative to them. That means you have
to dive in and dig in and understand and know
fully well those three words, I said, I don't know,
because we're in the early innings. We're just trying to
figure this one out.
Speaker 1 (22:56):
This is so interesting because I just gave a speech
at TAM, the biggest gathering of consumer insights professionals, earlier
this week in Vegas, and they were all sitting there
with like deer in headlights, and you could tell it
was this pervasive Oh my gosh, my job's going away.
And listen, I'm not Sam Altman. I'm trying to figure
(23:18):
it out. I definitely subscribe to the I don't know,
But what I do know as a practitioner and a
leader is I said something actually quite similar to what
you're saying to agencies. I'm like, you guys can be
the ultimate enablers right now if you allow yourselves to
be and just get there faster. And I gave an
(23:38):
example shout out to my amazing team member Marika, who
leads our customer marketing insights. She's using the tools and
going off and sitting with our head of stores and saying, look,
I pulled all this data. I can tell you buy
store now. What the problem is. She's not replacing herself
that way, She's upping her value by doing that in
(23:59):
her functions value. So I mean, I hope that's the
right answer. I think that's the right answer.
Speaker 3 (24:05):
Enable.
Speaker 1 (24:06):
Enable. I think that's a powerful word that we don't
use enough.
Speaker 3 (24:10):
I agree completely, And sometimes it's hard, right, especially if
you've got like a senior marketer who's in their like
forties or fifties, and they're long in the tooth as
it relates to their career, and they're at their prime
or at least their prime earning and their primes or impacts,
and now all of a sudden along comes the technology
that seems more native to a twenty year old than
(24:33):
a forty seven year old or a fifty three year old,
and they're like, shit, do I have to like learn that?
And the answer is yes, you do.
Speaker 1 (24:44):
Get over that.
Speaker 3 (24:47):
So get over that part, get over that and dive in.
Speaker 2 (24:51):
By the way, it's not terribly complicated, but they don't
know where to dive in. I think that's part of
the issue, Terry, because there's so much noise. I would
ask whether so much there's so many Charlatans out there,
and again having all these consults that have never worked
in tech, I mean, wors and I we joke about
we know, so just rebranded themselves on LinkedIn and now
they're AI experts.
Speaker 1 (25:11):
Everyone's an AI expert.
Speaker 3 (25:12):
Now you mean the Web three crowd. Yeah, I reference
them with derision. We derision because you know, there's all
the marketing loves the shiny new object. And where I
pride myself is, yes, I've called some great strikes trends
that manifested, but I've also called the balls. And I
am actually of the view that you've got to be
(25:35):
in real time for a good track record. For someone
to like instill their trust in you, it would be
best if you had a track record calling both strikes
and balls. Just to stay on this baseball analogy where yes,
you've been a good prognosticator of what is likely to come,
and then also back down all these nonsensical false positives.
Speaker 2 (25:56):
So give us an example of some of the bullshit
that you see out there.
Speaker 3 (26:00):
One of the balls, the four horsemen of the balls
that I've called in the last sort of fifteen years,
five g will change everything.
Speaker 2 (26:07):
Bunk.
Speaker 1 (26:08):
Okay, all contact got.
Speaker 3 (26:11):
Right change anything, IoT, because we need smart toasters. This off, like,
come on.
Speaker 1 (26:18):
This is very helpful to hear you call bunk on
some of.
Speaker 3 (26:22):
This VR, because we're all gonna walk now. I'm a
big believer in VR for the specific application gaming and
entertainment plugging it in. Are we all going to walk
around with headsets? Oh?
Speaker 2 (26:34):
No?
Speaker 3 (26:35):
Scott Gallaway said it best, and he said, I think
it's the world's best prophylactic. And then the granddaddy of
the mall, Web three, which incorporates NFTs, which I described
once as a jpeg with prominence?
Speaker 1 (26:49):
Did you know that then, Terry? Did you see it?
Speaker 3 (26:51):
Then? I called them in real time? Okay? And I
stood in front of all those marketers, and I said,
under stand that this is nonsense. If it sounds like BS,
and it looks like BS, and it smells like BS,
it's BS. Trust your instincts. I wrote a real time
(27:12):
Web three glossary that described all these different parameters, and
it ended with zero zero being the definition of zero
being the total return you will get if you invest
every dollar in these things. You know how you tell
the Web three enthusiasts from ten years ago, there are
the ones with a for sale sign in their front yard.
Speaker 2 (27:34):
They're now the AI enthusiasts.
Speaker 3 (27:35):
It's like short sellar is about love and I'm like,
good luck. You know how you tell a short sellar
of app love and they're the ones with a for
sale sign on the front yard.
Speaker 1 (27:49):
Okay, so we want to play our favorite game of
cooler cringe, which is our speed round. So get ready
for speed responses. I want to take us to sort
of a wrap question with this whole tray landscape. Where
are you putting down here with this poker chips?
Speaker 2 (28:03):
Now?
Speaker 3 (28:04):
Good question. Having that long and thankfully accurate history of
calling the balls and strikes, this one is the big one.
It's like, I'm not like the bandwagon guy I pulled up.
Speaker 2 (28:16):
Ah.
Speaker 3 (28:17):
I believe Stephen was in the room. In the twenty
sixteen that our digital media summit, I put up a
list of top trends in advertising. Number one was the
rise of AI. So we've been seeing this coming for
a while. We're now in this moment and I couldn't
be happier because where I shine, where I sort of
(28:37):
manifest my greatest comparative advantage over other investment bankers that
are advising on deals in the sector.
Speaker 2 (28:45):
Are there other investment backers, Harry, come on, let's be honest,
of course, but in the last five years you know,
we've gotten to scale and quite frankly, technology has waned.
Speaker 3 (28:54):
You kind of don't need a visionary to understand where
the world is going. But now that AI has been
basically it's like someone stood up in the middle of
dinner and said, you know what, I like how things
are going, and flip the table over on everybody. We're
in the moment. The table is in the air, drinks
are flying, carcavan is all over the place, sauces going everywhere.
(29:17):
It's all in the air right now. It has not settled,
and we don't know what the new paradigm is. All
we know is the old one ain't gonna be that
one right. It struck fear in the minds of the
people who've been in story, people who have been in
this industry for a long time, because yes, they got
to do the hard work of reinventing themselves and understandings.
(29:38):
But I think when it settles, there are certain parameters
associated with this movement that suggests that we're moving to
a world a golden era.
Speaker 2 (29:50):
I know. But Terry, you call balls and strikes, what's
gonna go away? What's gonna die? We have to be
our lists. Who's gonna be a winner. But what's gonna
go away? Well, notions of upfront. So what is an upfront?
And upfront is an artificial scarcity moment, right, But people
are saying that for fifty years, Terry.
Speaker 3 (30:09):
Correct, Well, they've been large staying it for the left
fifteen years since I wrote a parody about it, saying
the upfronts were going away back in two thousand and nine.
So it must be true. Just take life imitates by
the way, it's no reason not to showcase. You's like
the upfront will go away, but its impact will will
lessen in the sense that responsible people making media buys.
(30:31):
It's great to have a week where everyone sure shows
their goods. I don't think that ever goes way. Why
should that go away? It's just that we're not going
to negotiate commitments human to human in around that time
that you serve you know, seventy five percent of your
whole media span. No, it's gonna be a little bit
more of an active market that utilizes science. But I
do want to double down on this notion art and
(30:54):
science are not mutually exclusive. I can feel the pain
in Marissa's face when she laments all of this attention
on data and science and conversion outcomes. If it means
if it means that the beautiful, lovely, right brain creative
(31:17):
sort of emotion evoking work that this industry has shined
at certain ones, No, I think it's both.
Speaker 1 (31:25):
I think it's both too, and I'm not one or
the other either as an OG digital evangelist, digital marketing evangelistic, like,
I'm so happy to hear you stick the landing on that,
because I think that's right and it's just totally evolving.
But at the end of the day, the one thing
that hasn't changed is we're still selling to humans, and
humans are fundamentally irrational. So when we try to reduce
(31:48):
it all just to a math all, but then it's
crazy to be up on some high horse of a
creative mountain. Then think nothing else matters either, So I
don't know. For me, it is about how to integrate both.
Speaker 3 (32:01):
Almost like everything in life, the magic is in the middle.
Speaker 1 (32:04):
The magic's in the middle.
Speaker 3 (32:05):
I think, the more crazy and powerful this technology becomes.
What's the one thing that was maybe one of the
biggest surprises but probably shouldn't surprise anyone. Conferences in person meetings,
spending time human to human is more valuable now than
it was in the free Martini lunch era.
Speaker 2 (32:27):
That's going to be the premium in real life experiences
because everything else will be automated. So with that, mrsa A,
We're gonna do cool.
Speaker 1 (32:36):
Great, let's do it.
Speaker 2 (32:37):
Let's do it, lighting round, let's go, Charry, I'm ready
do the first one.
Speaker 1 (32:41):
Worse agency holding companies cooler cringe, cringe, Why fast, so
a note writer.
Speaker 3 (32:49):
For the last ten years at holding companies are down
twenty seven percent. They are failing by holding on to
their old fte business model or cost plus model.
Speaker 2 (33:00):
Go faster, Wow.
Speaker 1 (33:02):
Love it, okay, Steven cool cringe.
Speaker 2 (33:05):
Private equity firms buying creative shops.
Speaker 3 (33:09):
Cool. Private equities involvement in any industry is simply a
function of its gestation. And yes, one could accuse them
of buying sort of cash flow only businesses. I believe
private equity is a lot more sophisticated than that, and
they understand fundamental epoch changes. And you're going to see
(33:30):
a big participation amongst the private equity firms as this
sort of industry goes through its transformation from art to science.
Speaker 1 (33:38):
That's super interesting, Okay, here's a fun one cooler cringe.
We're seeing this now the sort of anti AI brag.
For example, brands now overtly bragging that they've used no
AI to make this ad cooler crinch.
Speaker 3 (33:53):
Okay, so when you started that question, I was going
with cringe, but there is nothing wrong with the poking
fun thing. Like every parody that I produce, I now
put a necessary caveat at the bottom. It has two lines.
It says human made AI free, sucker chat chip listen.
(34:16):
Marketing is all about differentiation. So in a world that's
moving all towards tech, if you can say, hey, but
we're not tech, great, that's just good copy.
Speaker 2 (34:25):
Yeah. My whole theory on that is as AI becomes
a sea of sameness, obviously you're going to need to differentiate.
And I think human made is going to be like
you know, the label of organic food organic made by
human labels.
Speaker 3 (34:39):
It's not going to be necessarily echomano. Right, it's echo humano.
Speaker 2 (34:45):
Yep, that's right, that's right, all right? Last one the
loom escape cool cringe cool? But why is it so cool?
I mean, literally, this content marketing stroke a genius has
lasted for decades. Now, why is it cool.
Speaker 1 (35:05):
Maybe we should reframe cool or cringe to sexy or
scary the looma.
Speaker 3 (35:09):
Escape, in which case, yes, yes. So any tool that
helps someone better comprehend what's going on is good, right.
Understanding education is a good thing. By the way, twenty ten,
I launched Luma. I have this diagram that I did
(35:29):
at my prior firm. I took it with me, Thank
you very much, Ike, and it was called the Digital
Advertising Technology Landscape. And then I launched Luma, and we
have Luma was out pushing the advertising technology Landscape's a mouthful, right,
And then come June of twenty and eleven, I produced
three more the Mobile Advertising Technology Landscape, the Social Advertising
(35:53):
Technology Landscape, and the Video Advertising Technology Landscape, and I
somehow convinced a reporter at the Wall Street Journal to
not just put it in digital but to actually print
it on like, you know, a four or wherever. It
was like, So, this was like the greatest moment of
my life. And I submitted my graphics, you know that
eight pm deadline for publishing the next day, and at
(36:14):
seven fifteen I had an epiphany. I'm like, wait, I
know a little bit about marketing, and I'm like landscape
loom escape, so I changed them all to display loomiscape,
social loomiscape, you know, video loomscape, mubble, loom escape. And
I'm like, oh my god, that's genius. So I call
up the reporter. She's like, you got to get it
to me in the next twenty minutes. Otherwise no go, dude,
(36:37):
like we're going to print as is, so I scramble
I get it to them. They publish in the Wall
Street Journal the loomiscape on June the eleventh, twenty eleven,
and the rest, as they say, is his Wow.
Speaker 1 (36:53):
Terry Quadra, we can listen to and talk to you
and learn from you endlessly. Thanks for me our guest today.
Thanks for sharing, and I cannot wait to see what
the next parody who's gonna look like.
Speaker 2 (37:07):
Thank you, Terry, so happy for chat with you. Tooe.
Speaker 1 (37:11):
That's it for now, though we certainly could have kept going.
If you like what you're hearing, don't forget to subscribe
to Brand New so you never miss an episode and
look for us and follow us on all of our socials.
Speaker 2 (37:23):
See you next time. I'm brand New
Hello, and welcome back to brand New from the iHeart
Podcast Network and brand New Labs. I'm Marissa Paulberg and.
Speaker 2 (00:12):
I'm Steven Wolfeneta hallewom was awesome Halloween turned up here
in La? How was it for you? Marissa?
Speaker 1 (00:21):
It was a little quieter for me, but I finally
am home after two weeks on the road. But I
must note we keep talking about AI and we will
be today. But the real world experience of getting to
be with your family in La last week, and it
was funny. I was thinking about it like I had
the best time with your kids.
Speaker 2 (00:39):
It was so good. They love their tam Marissa. My
daughter Sienna, I think she wanted to go shopping with you,
and she's seven, But again, they adore you, so thank
you for being wonderful.
Speaker 1 (00:51):
I thought you and you and Nuria were going to
be mad at me because I was playing What was
I doing? I was playing with technology with them and
I was showing them Snapchat lenses. But it was such
a real world fun way of getting to be with
you and them, real world.
Speaker 2 (01:06):
Just to be with you and David irl experiences. I
think that only becomes more important going forward.
Speaker 1 (01:12):
Well, we're about to bring on someone who has been
one of the biggest prognosticators of where it's all going.
Speaker 2 (01:19):
With tech and comedian.
Speaker 1 (01:21):
He's also one of the biggest comedians in our industry,
which has sort of been an interesting juxtaposition and a
unique one. But just this idea of following where the
ball is going and understanding how it kind of interplays
with what we're all doing in marketing and media, et cetera,
et cetera. So I want to introduce him.
Speaker 2 (01:40):
Yeah, so we are here with the one and only
Terrence or Terry Kauwaja, who is one of the most
recognizable figures in marketing, media and technology. But truly, I
think you've missed your calling as a comedian because you
are just so freaking funny.
Speaker 3 (01:58):
Right true.
Speaker 2 (01:59):
But Harry is well, I want to say recovering banker,
but you really are, I guess still doing investment banking
because you are the founder and CEO of Lumah Partners
and you have advised on over three hundred billion dollars
of transactions in digital media and marketing, and you have
helped shape mergers and exits and strategic moves, and you
have really defined this space for the past two decades. Terry,
(02:20):
and I believe we both started way back when at
a little firm called Solomon Brothers, Salma Smith, Barney Ben.
You are probably most either beloved or known for for
creating the Loom Escape, those famously intricate charts that map
the ever expanding reach of ad tech mare tech media.
Speaker 1 (02:38):
I love how Steven's doing this in the second person,
like he's like telling you about.
Speaker 2 (02:43):
You, but you really map the ecosystem, and you are
not just funny, and you provide all this incredible education
for the market, but you really have called where the
puck is going. And so it's a true pleasure to
have you on Brand News. Welcome, Terry, Welcome.
Speaker 3 (03:01):
Great to be with you, Stephen and Marissa. Gonna be
so much fun.
Speaker 1 (03:05):
It's gonna be fun. Well, I just have to make
a little confession. First, I was so intimidated by you when.
Speaker 2 (03:11):
I first met you.
Speaker 1 (03:11):
I'm like, who is this guy that everyone knows? It's
like the posse, the mafia of this whole industry. And
then I got to know you, and then I got
to even be in one of your crazy Can two
of your crazy Can videos. So I feel like that
shows I've made it more than anything else.
Speaker 2 (03:30):
Terry's kind of the OG creator Marissa, if you think about.
Speaker 1 (03:33):
It, true, it's really true. All right, Steven, we got
to jump in because there's so much to talk about,
and you were just telling us before we went on
that you've done a couple of episodes of podcasts recently
that have been a little unhinged. So we're not afraid.
We're not afraid, am I right? Steven?
Speaker 2 (03:49):
Please be in hinge. It's my favorite kind of Terry.
Speaker 3 (03:51):
I said that with Ari Baparo recently, and we both
acknowledged that we had two things in common, the two
relevant ones, no boss and no filter.
Speaker 2 (04:01):
That's a good combiny.
Speaker 1 (04:02):
Well, we're a little careful that way. Some of us
do still have bosses, but that's okay. I'm going to
jump in with a first question because I want to
just set the stage in terms of who's listening. We
have people who are listening who are deeply in our industry.
We have some people who are not. We have a
people who are long standing execs. We have people when
we love who are kind of first rising in this industry.
(04:24):
So I'm going to kind of go for the executive
summary first. With everything you see and everything you do.
Where are we now? Like, is it possible to give
sort of a simple situation analysis for everyone listening for
all the years you've spent mapping, as Steven said, ad
tech and media and mark like, where are we?
Speaker 3 (04:47):
It's actually a really great question too, in a sector
that's got a lot of moving parts, a lot of complexity,
a lot of fragmentation, a lot of dynamics, to just
step back and say, wait, what's going on?
Speaker 2 (05:02):
Overall?
Speaker 3 (05:03):
The way I sort of frame that is, we are
moving in both media and marketing. Media is selling and
marketing is buying. Right, so the two sides of every equation,
Media and marketing are moving from an art to a science.
In its most simple form.
Speaker 2 (05:24):
You just crushed versus heart right there.
Speaker 1 (05:26):
Terry, you did. I might have to debate this a
little with you.
Speaker 3 (05:30):
Allow me to elaborate. So that's it at its basic,
because we are taking traditional media and marketing or a
combination of what I call real estate and religion. And
I used to have a slide on this like fifteen
years ago. So real estate on the supply side, because
scarcity was everything like a parking lot, like getting us
(05:52):
spot the last spot was like super valuable and religion
on the buy side because you spit your money and
you had to believe that it worked for you. So
realistic in religion is how I used to call it.
And now it's moving towards the science. Now you have data.
Now you have channels that actually have somewhat either an
(06:17):
explicit or an assumed closed loop, which is to say,
it's not just data, because data helps you guess, but
a closed loop of data helps you know. That's the difference,
because there are some paradigms where you fundamentally change the
nature of marketing spend from a discretionary expense to a
(06:40):
cost of good sold. And by the way, when you
can do that, it changes everything. And I often describe
the marketers in the mobile gaming sector nobody gets it
from the sense that they were the canaries in the
coal mine with respect back to outcomes. They define the
(07:03):
early days of outcomes.
Speaker 2 (07:05):
Because give an Exampletary latelyly what kind of company.
Speaker 3 (07:08):
So let's talk about super Sell supercell in two Thoyd
and ten. I used to say to people super Sell,
let me give you a thumbnail of their economics. They
have a billion dollars in revenue. It cost them about
one hundred million dollars to develop the games. They had
a small number of employees, and then they had five
(07:32):
hundred million dollars of media expense, so they would buy
slots in ad slots on mobile apps, and then they
would have four hundred million of ebit DA. And I
used to ask the question. I said, this is not
a gaming company.
Speaker 2 (07:49):
And just to define terms, EBIT EBITDA earnings before interests, taxes, depreciation, amortization.
Speaker 3 (07:56):
It's an electron that stands for profits. This is not
a gaming company. This is a marketing company that just
so happens that its product is a game. You could
substitute the game for anything. In other words, if you
analyze the P and L of that company, you define
it by its largest components, and its largest components are profits.
(08:17):
In marketing. Gaming is just a happenstance, right. It just
happens to be in gaming, could be in anything else.
So here's the point. They were experts at the idea
of where to place media such that they got conversions,
and along came intermediaries. And we're all familiar with Apple
(08:38):
Love and it started in two thousand and twelve as
a mobile gaming ad network and a couple of really
smart folks who built a business whereby they got really
smart at knowing where to go to buy the media
that would lead to a conversion and in the instance
(08:59):
of a mobile gaming company, that would be a download.
And the reason why they had to get good at
it was because their business model. They had an arbitrage
business model where they bought CPM and by the way,
super cheap CPMs because it's mobile gaming, and if you
bought the right CPM, they would sell CPI. And in
(09:20):
that translation, they made a fortune. So I used to say,
and I went to the A and A. I remember,
in front of thousands of marketers, and I said, mark
my words, I said, study the mobile gamers, okay, because
they were all hung up as twenty eighteen, they were
all hung up on it was when I took a
(09:42):
fabulous picture with SWP and Michael Cassident and Nick Bryant,
and I said, they were all hung up with the
direct to consumer marketers. And they should have been, because
the direct consumer marketers were taking market share at a
rate that was unprecedented for marketing. I mean normally, if
you're the CMO and you lose one point in a quarter,
(10:03):
or calendar year, you get raked over the coals in
front of the board. These upstart companies were taking ten
fifteen percent market share from stalwarts like Gilat.
Speaker 2 (10:15):
But zoom out on this terry, right, because what you
were describing is basically what we've seen over the past
two decades, which is just the increased fragmentation that you
now have so many outlets. And I remember when I
was a media buyer for Walmart, and you know we've
discussed this. You know, people come and pitch me a show, right, Oh,
this is the best show, and it's like, hey, that's great,
(10:38):
they have a great show. I am buying audience, and
I could find audience anywhere, and it just keeps on expanding,
kind of like the universe, it just keeps on inflating.
And so for the marketer like Marissa, it's got to
be on the one hand, incredible and maybe this is
you know, the science part that you can actually have
all these infinite options because now every one is a
(11:00):
media company. But on the other hand, is this the
version of AI slop? Is this kind of like you know,
media slop.
Speaker 1 (11:06):
It's incredible and terrible because if you work in a
business like when I was in QSR with Taco bell
or retail and you want to scale impact, it's terrible.
I know, we're talking about the World Series right now,
Like there's a reason Live Sports is it's such a
premium because it's one of the few places and believe me,
the sellers know it that you can still create a
(11:29):
shared collective moment and as people who are playing in
culture still want that, it's not all just the spots
and dots of the digital CPMs.
Speaker 3 (11:39):
And I totally agree the direct consumer. It didn't start
with them because the general marketers were like, what is
going on with this new thing. I'm like, no, no, no,
that's a gestation stage of an evolution that started with
mobile gamers, that it went to all apps and then
direct consumer. And I said, it is coming to you
this that I'm talking about, not exactly in the full
(12:04):
extent of pure performance, which is to say, pay for
direct bottom of the funnel outcomes, but it is coming.
This notion of using data to drive performance to move
towards outcomes is coming to all marketers. And you would
best be well served by learning what happened over there
(12:25):
in the mubile app world. And now would evolve into
direct consumer. I agree with Steven your point about this
notion of the poor marketer. Two problems. You described a
science problem, Marissa described an art problem. But let me
address those. So how can I ease me all this
thing into like I'm not buying show like I need
(12:46):
bulk man. Why does a marketer spend money in advertising?
They have an objective. They want to convert a consumer
to be a customer theirs. I describe commerce as advertising perfected.
In other words, it work. So you want to maximize
all three aspects of an ad in order to convert them.
(13:09):
You want to target the right people in the right context.
So generally speaking to whom you are sending your message,
you want to find the right media. That is to say,
where people are paying attention, where the hot sort of
thing is. That's to your point about live sports. And Third,
(13:30):
you want to have the right creative, the right copy,
the right message, the right cool thing. And throughout the
last twenty years my career, my experience is we have
seen hundreds, if not millions or billions of dollars invested
in or acquisitions of companies that do the first two things.
(13:52):
There are data companies that are all about the audience
or their media companies all about the placement, and I'm
like sitting there going wait, isn't the single most important
thing the creative the third thing that you guys are
just whatever. It's consistently been viewed as a manual thing
(14:14):
that is not susceptible to science applications. But that's not right.
That's why Steven has heard me yap on about creative
technology and how I think we're missing the boat because
they've now done studies. That was my gut feel, but
they've now done studies that say, amongst the three variables,
(14:34):
the audience, the media, and the creative, how do they
contribute to a successful campaign? And the answer is the
creative is like fifty to seventy percent. It's the whole
shooting match. So now with AI, we have the ability
to actually apply science to creative. Let me explain what
(14:57):
that means. Nobody a great creative that makes you maybe
tear up a little bit, evoking emotions like a mobile
app ad never evoked an emotion, right, that's purely performance.
Speaker 2 (15:13):
That batter ad did a movie you when we just
saw that little logo on like these pixelated Titi screen.
Speaker 3 (15:17):
I'm a left rain, right brain kind of person who
believes in the art. I love the art. So when
I hear people on Madison Avenue decry the application of technology,
but we're losing the soul of advertising, I say, calm down.
We shouldn't lose the soul of advertising, because I like
(15:40):
to think of technology like a megaphone. Whatever creative you
had before, you can only get out to a certain
audience with tech. Your amazing creative that you spent a
lot of time thinking about is now amplified for much
broader purpose. So no, my recommendtion is embrace the science
and race it. This data, this tech that we're have
(16:03):
to make. Basically, it's perfecting what we do. Right. So, advertising,
you spend a lot of money and you get a
small amount of conversion. You're already starting off with a
losing ratio. Okay, you're not terribly effective. Everyone is not
terribly effective. If you can move your effectiveness up just
a little bit, you can double, triple, quadruple the impact
(16:27):
that you have, so all the work that you do
on the creative side is not wasted. That's a good
way to think about it, is that historically everyone who
did all this effort to make great creative it was
largely wasted because the conversion ratio was like two percent,
so ninety eight percent of it was wasted. Imagine how
amazing it would be if you could double that, Terry.
Speaker 1 (16:54):
Who's doing it really well that you see out there
in terms of technology being the creative megaphone, the art
and the science coming together as trite as even my
saying that sounds we're talking about it in practice, that
really is a combination. Who do you admire? Who's the
source of admiration for you? Right now?
Speaker 3 (17:14):
It's a great question, and I would say that we're
in early innings of people optimizing on the creative things.
Yeah that said, I'm a proof is in the putting
kind of person, So I don't take speculation. You know what,
I look at results. You know who's producing the best results.
I'm not saying it's about creative per se. I'm saying
(17:38):
who's figured out data, media and creative. The one and
two list is Facebook and app loved.
Speaker 1 (17:46):
Okay, So that's interesting because you went with media companies
in your answer.
Speaker 2 (17:51):
Correct again, technology companies that are actually media businesses, right.
Speaker 1 (17:55):
Good point, Yeah, Terry.
Speaker 2 (17:58):
The top five by market cap. You know Nvidio five
trillion dollars this week? Okay, five trillion, Microsoft for a trillion, Google, Meta, Apple? Like,
is it just game over? Because it's all the technology companies,
all big tech will only get bigger because it's not
(18:19):
like they're going to stop at four or five trillion.
Don't go to ten as AI continues to accelerate. So
how does a marketer survive in this world where literally
they I mean I always keep saying they're bringing pencil,
not to a gunfight, to a drone fight, right, So
how on earth can a brand compete build up their
(18:40):
own intelligence when they don't have the tools, they don't
have the GPUs, they don't have any of this stuff.
And every large tech company say, oh yeah, just come
to my platform, give us all your data, don't worry
about a thing.
Speaker 3 (18:52):
We'll take you care of the rest. Just give us
your money. I think the exact opposite. I think I
think it's a magical time for artful rate of people
on Madison vag there's.
Speaker 2 (19:02):
No Madison Avenue terry that does kill DDB. There's no Gray,
there's no JWT, like is there even a Madison Hurative?
Speaker 3 (19:11):
But I met it figuratively. Last week, I did a
customer off site for Yeah, my client. Yeah. I was
in front of one thirty agency people in this particular session,
and they asked me a question like, you know similar
sort of question. Is it over? Like what's going on?
And I said, agencies have never had more agency than
(19:36):
right now. It's all up to you. Yes, there are
these extremely powerful technologies that can optimize you know, media
and data and coming soon and with the imposition of AI,
it's a confusing time for folks. There's fear. Your clients
(19:57):
are fearful because that's a natural, huge human response to
massive change, the sudden massive change. You've read the headlines.
You know AIS going to change everything, and it will.
And so all these marketers are floundered because they're like,
what do I need to do? Do I learn chat
chipet or no. I need to tell me more than that.
(20:18):
I need to understand how the LM's are going to
monetize that, Like it's so hard right now, we're all
in the same boat. I have a presentation I give
on the intersection of AI and advertising, and towards the
front of it, I say, when it comes to that
intersection of AI and advertising. I frequently say three words
(20:38):
that anyone who's responsible should be saying when addressing the space,
and the three words are I don't know, because I
don't know. Your CMO doesn't know, your technology vendor doesn't know. Heck,
Sam Altman doesn't know. He doesn't know the implication of
AI and how it will manifest advertise. Well, I'm in February.
(21:01):
He's got a better look see than any But they have.
Speaker 2 (21:04):
A vision, and again you know the vision. So they
just had this week, right, I don't know if you saw.
They kind of laid out their roadmap for product, for research,
and for infrastructure and for folks that aren't kind of
like nerds and the weeds, you know, Following all this stuff,
they basically shared their stack and their stack Perry is
(21:25):
basically to eat all software and they become the operating
system where they have infinite memory. Everything will be inside
of a context window, inside of chat shept or it
could be clawed or could be Geminar or rock. But like,
basically you'll have the four horsemen of the AI era
and apps are going to live inside of there. So
(21:46):
how on earth does a brand even remotely compete, let
alone get visibility or how does they even get relevant? Right?
I mean again, we were at a anda and we
saw Mark Pritcher talking about stuff. Stage's talking about Sharman.
I don't know. I mean, I like Sharmon, but I
might just have my chat shept or cloud or whatever,
say you know what, does you know have commerce integrated
(22:08):
into it? Right? So I'll just say get me the
cheapest toilet paper and just have it on repeat, and
you know, I'm never gonna think about it again. And
the brand is dead to a couple of things we.
Speaker 3 (22:16):
Were referencing sort of the agencies. My message the agencies
was this can either be the best moment for you
or the worst. It's up to you. The ergo agencies
have the most agency right now. So your clients are fearful,
and fear is a strong emotion and you can, like
not take advantage of that. That sounds wrong, but you
can help and you can in other words, you can
(22:37):
be recognized for a value add if you act as
their shirpa. But that means you have to be ahead
of the curve relative to them. That means you have
to dive in and dig in and understand and know
fully well those three words, I said, I don't know,
because we're in the early innings. We're just trying to
figure this one out.
Speaker 1 (22:56):
This is so interesting because I just gave a speech
at TAM, the biggest gathering of consumer insights professionals, earlier
this week in Vegas, and they were all sitting there
with like deer in headlights, and you could tell it
was this pervasive Oh my gosh, my job's going away.
And listen, I'm not Sam Altman. I'm trying to figure
(23:18):
it out. I definitely subscribe to the I don't know,
But what I do know as a practitioner and a
leader is I said something actually quite similar to what
you're saying to agencies. I'm like, you guys can be
the ultimate enablers right now if you allow yourselves to
be and just get there faster. And I gave an
(23:38):
example shout out to my amazing team member Marika, who
leads our customer marketing insights. She's using the tools and
going off and sitting with our head of stores and saying, look,
I pulled all this data. I can tell you buy
store now. What the problem is. She's not replacing herself
that way, She's upping her value by doing that in
(23:59):
her functions value. So I mean, I hope that's the
right answer. I think that's the right answer.
Speaker 3 (24:05):
Enable.
Speaker 1 (24:06):
Enable. I think that's a powerful word that we don't
use enough.
Speaker 3 (24:10):
I agree completely, And sometimes it's hard, right, especially if
you've got like a senior marketer who's in their like
forties or fifties, and they're long in the tooth as
it relates to their career, and they're at their prime
or at least their prime earning and their primes or impacts,
and now all of a sudden along comes the technology
that seems more native to a twenty year old than
(24:33):
a forty seven year old or a fifty three year old,
and they're like, shit, do I have to like learn that?
And the answer is yes, you do.
Speaker 1 (24:44):
Get over that.
Speaker 3 (24:47):
So get over that part, get over that and dive in.
Speaker 2 (24:51):
By the way, it's not terribly complicated, but they don't
know where to dive in. I think that's part of
the issue, Terry, because there's so much noise. I would
ask whether so much there's so many Charlatans out there,
and again having all these consults that have never worked
in tech, I mean, wors and I we joke about
we know, so just rebranded themselves on LinkedIn and now
they're AI experts.
Speaker 1 (25:11):
Everyone's an AI expert.
Speaker 3 (25:12):
Now you mean the Web three crowd. Yeah, I reference
them with derision. We derision because you know, there's all
the marketing loves the shiny new object. And where I
pride myself is, yes, I've called some great strikes trends
that manifested, but I've also called the balls. And I
am actually of the view that you've got to be
(25:35):
in real time for a good track record. For someone
to like instill their trust in you, it would be
best if you had a track record calling both strikes
and balls. Just to stay on this baseball analogy where yes,
you've been a good prognosticator of what is likely to come,
and then also back down all these nonsensical false positives.
Speaker 2 (25:56):
So give us an example of some of the bullshit
that you see out there.
Speaker 3 (26:00):
One of the balls, the four horsemen of the balls
that I've called in the last sort of fifteen years,
five g will change everything.
Speaker 2 (26:07):
Bunk.
Speaker 1 (26:08):
Okay, all contact got.
Speaker 3 (26:11):
Right change anything, IoT, because we need smart toasters. This off, like,
come on.
Speaker 1 (26:18):
This is very helpful to hear you call bunk on
some of.
Speaker 3 (26:22):
This VR, because we're all gonna walk now. I'm a
big believer in VR for the specific application gaming and
entertainment plugging it in. Are we all going to walk
around with headsets? Oh?
Speaker 2 (26:34):
No?
Speaker 3 (26:35):
Scott Gallaway said it best, and he said, I think
it's the world's best prophylactic. And then the granddaddy of
the mall, Web three, which incorporates NFTs, which I described
once as a jpeg with prominence?
Speaker 1 (26:49):
Did you know that then, Terry? Did you see it?
Speaker 3 (26:51):
Then? I called them in real time? Okay? And I
stood in front of all those marketers, and I said,
under stand that this is nonsense. If it sounds like BS,
and it looks like BS, and it smells like BS,
it's BS. Trust your instincts. I wrote a real time
(27:12):
Web three glossary that described all these different parameters, and
it ended with zero zero being the definition of zero
being the total return you will get if you invest
every dollar in these things. You know how you tell
the Web three enthusiasts from ten years ago, there are
the ones with a for sale sign in their front yard.
Speaker 2 (27:34):
They're now the AI enthusiasts.
Speaker 3 (27:35):
It's like short sellar is about love and I'm like,
good luck. You know how you tell a short sellar
of app love and they're the ones with a for
sale sign on the front yard.
Speaker 1 (27:49):
Okay, so we want to play our favorite game of
cooler cringe, which is our speed round. So get ready
for speed responses. I want to take us to sort
of a wrap question with this whole tray landscape. Where
are you putting down here with this poker chips?
Speaker 2 (28:03):
Now?
Speaker 3 (28:04):
Good question. Having that long and thankfully accurate history of
calling the balls and strikes, this one is the big one.
It's like, I'm not like the bandwagon guy I pulled up.
Speaker 2 (28:16):
Ah.
Speaker 3 (28:17):
I believe Stephen was in the room. In the twenty
sixteen that our digital media summit, I put up a
list of top trends in advertising. Number one was the
rise of AI. So we've been seeing this coming for
a while. We're now in this moment and I couldn't
be happier because where I shine, where I sort of
(28:37):
manifest my greatest comparative advantage over other investment bankers that
are advising on deals in the sector.
Speaker 2 (28:45):
Are there other investment backers, Harry, come on, let's be honest,
of course, but in the last five years you know,
we've gotten to scale and quite frankly, technology has waned.
Speaker 3 (28:54):
You kind of don't need a visionary to understand where
the world is going. But now that AI has been
basically it's like someone stood up in the middle of
dinner and said, you know what, I like how things
are going, and flip the table over on everybody. We're
in the moment. The table is in the air, drinks
are flying, carcavan is all over the place, sauces going everywhere.
(29:17):
It's all in the air right now. It has not settled,
and we don't know what the new paradigm is. All
we know is the old one ain't gonna be that
one right. It struck fear in the minds of the
people who've been in story, people who have been in
this industry for a long time, because yes, they got
to do the hard work of reinventing themselves and understandings.
(29:38):
But I think when it settles, there are certain parameters
associated with this movement that suggests that we're moving to
a world a golden era.
Speaker 2 (29:50):
I know. But Terry, you call balls and strikes, what's
gonna go away? What's gonna die? We have to be
our lists. Who's gonna be a winner. But what's gonna
go away? Well, notions of upfront. So what is an upfront?
And upfront is an artificial scarcity moment, right, But people
are saying that for fifty years, Terry.
Speaker 3 (30:09):
Correct, Well, they've been large staying it for the left
fifteen years since I wrote a parody about it, saying
the upfronts were going away back in two thousand and nine.
So it must be true. Just take life imitates by
the way, it's no reason not to showcase. You's like
the upfront will go away, but its impact will will
lessen in the sense that responsible people making media buys.
(30:31):
It's great to have a week where everyone sure shows
their goods. I don't think that ever goes way. Why
should that go away? It's just that we're not going
to negotiate commitments human to human in around that time
that you serve you know, seventy five percent of your
whole media span. No, it's gonna be a little bit
more of an active market that utilizes science. But I
do want to double down on this notion art and
(30:54):
science are not mutually exclusive. I can feel the pain
in Marissa's face when she laments all of this attention
on data and science and conversion outcomes. If it means
if it means that the beautiful, lovely, right brain creative
(31:17):
sort of emotion evoking work that this industry has shined
at certain ones, No, I think it's both.
Speaker 1 (31:25):
I think it's both too, and I'm not one or
the other either as an OG digital evangelist, digital marketing evangelistic, like,
I'm so happy to hear you stick the landing on that,
because I think that's right and it's just totally evolving.
But at the end of the day, the one thing
that hasn't changed is we're still selling to humans, and
humans are fundamentally irrational. So when we try to reduce
(31:48):
it all just to a math all, but then it's
crazy to be up on some high horse of a
creative mountain. Then think nothing else matters either, So I
don't know. For me, it is about how to integrate both.
Speaker 3 (32:01):
Almost like everything in life, the magic is in the middle.
Speaker 1 (32:04):
The magic's in the middle.
Speaker 3 (32:05):
I think, the more crazy and powerful this technology becomes.
What's the one thing that was maybe one of the
biggest surprises but probably shouldn't surprise anyone. Conferences in person meetings,
spending time human to human is more valuable now than
it was in the free Martini lunch era.
Speaker 2 (32:27):
That's going to be the premium in real life experiences
because everything else will be automated. So with that, mrsa A,
We're gonna do cool.
Speaker 1 (32:36):
Great, let's do it.
Speaker 2 (32:37):
Let's do it, lighting round, let's go, Charry, I'm ready
do the first one.
Speaker 1 (32:41):
Worse agency holding companies cooler cringe, cringe, Why fast, so
a note writer.
Speaker 3 (32:49):
For the last ten years at holding companies are down
twenty seven percent. They are failing by holding on to
their old fte business model or cost plus model.
Speaker 2 (33:00):
Go faster, Wow.
Speaker 1 (33:02):
Love it, okay, Steven cool cringe.
Speaker 2 (33:05):
Private equity firms buying creative shops.
Speaker 3 (33:09):
Cool. Private equities involvement in any industry is simply a
function of its gestation. And yes, one could accuse them
of buying sort of cash flow only businesses. I believe
private equity is a lot more sophisticated than that, and
they understand fundamental epoch changes. And you're going to see
(33:30):
a big participation amongst the private equity firms as this
sort of industry goes through its transformation from art to science.
Speaker 1 (33:38):
That's super interesting, Okay, here's a fun one cooler cringe.
We're seeing this now the sort of anti AI brag.
For example, brands now overtly bragging that they've used no
AI to make this ad cooler crinch.
Speaker 3 (33:53):
Okay, so when you started that question, I was going
with cringe, but there is nothing wrong with the poking
fun thing. Like every parody that I produce, I now
put a necessary caveat at the bottom. It has two lines.
It says human made AI free, sucker chat chip listen.
(34:16):
Marketing is all about differentiation. So in a world that's
moving all towards tech, if you can say, hey, but
we're not tech, great, that's just good copy.
Speaker 2 (34:25):
Yeah. My whole theory on that is as AI becomes
a sea of sameness, obviously you're going to need to differentiate.
And I think human made is going to be like
you know, the label of organic food organic made by
human labels.
Speaker 3 (34:39):
It's not going to be necessarily echomano. Right, it's echo humano.
Speaker 2 (34:45):
Yep, that's right, that's right, all right? Last one the
loom escape cool cringe cool? But why is it so cool?
I mean, literally, this content marketing stroke a genius has
lasted for decades. Now, why is it cool.
Speaker 1 (35:05):
Maybe we should reframe cool or cringe to sexy or
scary the looma.
Speaker 3 (35:09):
Escape, in which case, yes, yes. So any tool that
helps someone better comprehend what's going on is good, right.
Understanding education is a good thing. By the way, twenty ten,
I launched Luma. I have this diagram that I did
(35:29):
at my prior firm. I took it with me, Thank
you very much, Ike, and it was called the Digital
Advertising Technology Landscape. And then I launched Luma, and we
have Luma was out pushing the advertising technology Landscape's a mouthful, right,
And then come June of twenty and eleven, I produced
three more the Mobile Advertising Technology Landscape, the Social Advertising
(35:53):
Technology Landscape, and the Video Advertising Technology Landscape, and I
somehow convinced a reporter at the Wall Street Journal to
not just put it in digital but to actually print
it on like, you know, a four or wherever. It
was like, So, this was like the greatest moment of
my life. And I submitted my graphics, you know that
eight pm deadline for publishing the next day, and at
(36:14):
seven fifteen I had an epiphany. I'm like, wait, I
know a little bit about marketing, and I'm like landscape
loom escape, so I changed them all to display loomiscape,
social loomiscape, you know, video loomscape, mubble, loom escape. And
I'm like, oh my god, that's genius. So I call
up the reporter. She's like, you got to get it
to me in the next twenty minutes. Otherwise no go, dude,
(36:37):
like we're going to print as is, so I scramble
I get it to them. They publish in the Wall
Street Journal the loomiscape on June the eleventh, twenty eleven,
and the rest, as they say, is his Wow.
Speaker 1 (36:53):
Terry Quadra, we can listen to and talk to you
and learn from you endlessly. Thanks for me our guest today.
Thanks for sharing, and I cannot wait to see what
the next parody who's gonna look like.
Speaker 2 (37:07):
Thank you, Terry, so happy for chat with you. Tooe.
Speaker 1 (37:11):
That's it for now, though we certainly could have kept going.
If you like what you're hearing, don't forget to subscribe
to Brand New so you never miss an episode and
look for us and follow us on all of our socials.
Speaker 2 (37:23):
See you next time. I'm brand New
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